Mass Hostage Taking in Russia and Mumbai
by Luke Allison
Download the full article: The Future of Terrorism
Terrorism has a future; terrorism always has a future. The question is: can the application of terror morph into something inherently capable of distorting strategic countermeasures? The answer is probably yes, because a states' fundamental responsibility is to maintain sovereignty by protecting its population. The problem with this responsibility in relation to terrorism is that it is debilitating in terms of being predictable. Predictability is not a strategy; it is the absence of strategy.
The future of terrorism is to isolate instances where the state is compelled to act predictably. The best example of this type of terrorism is an approach that involves mass hostage taking in conjunction with the use of barricades. This is quite remarkable, because " . . . the idea of taking hostages and placing the responsibility for their fate into the hands of the opposing government was a highly effective tool . . . " For the purposes of this article, a mass hostage taking incident occurs when between one hundred and two thousand people are held involuntarily under the threat of serious physical injury. Examples of mass hostage taking incidents will be restricted to those occurring in public buildings such as: schools, theaters, hospitals, and hotels. Similar incidents taking place on air planes, busses, or other modes of transportation will be considered outside the scope of inquiry.
Download the full article: The Future of Terrorism
Luke Allison holds an MA in International Security from the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. He holds a BA in Communications Studies from Loyola University New Orleans. Mr. Allison has presented original research on counterinsurgency and terrorism at conferences around the United States.
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Personally I believe that the future of terrorism will ultimately depend upon the persistent targeting or the pressures, which are inflicted upon particular terrorist group's from the state itself.
For example, the more the state clamps down upon certain groups, the more violent their attacks will become in order to make the state back down or back away from engaging or potentially destroying their organisation.
This was evident due to the persistent terrorist attacks, which struck Pakistan in the Autumn periods of last year, as they launched a large-scale offensive into the Swat/North Waziristan Tribal zones.
Western influence nowadays also effectively undermines many terrorist groups and their leaders since they effectively loose power and control over their people, as well as their possible recruits by tempting them into following the Western way of life and that is why I believe that they target Western Values and Power the most, out of any particular group.
As for Mass-Hostage Takings, I do believe that a Mumbai-style assault could indeed occur within an Indian city at any time within the near future. It is also entirely possible that terrorist's could intentionally launch such an attack in order to provoke India to retaliate against Pakistan possibly in order to start a war between the two countries. This is becuase terrorists ultimately want to create instability and anarchy within a particular region since they get more power due to less government interference into their affairs. This is because the two nations could then possibly concentrate all their efforts on fighting each other, rather than their terrorist organisations within their borders.
As for Chechen Terrorism, I do believe that Mass-Hostage Takings have indeed been very frequent in Russia over the last decade however in the last five years it seems to have quietened down significantly.
However, ever so recently we are once again experiencing very frequent bomb attacks on train's and at theatres in Russia, so it would not surprise me at all, if a mass-hostage taking in Russia, were to occur later this year around the Autumn time.
I believe this very strongly becuase in 2004, in the lead up to the 'Beslan School Hostage Crisis', there were effectively many bombings on trains and plane's, which ultimately led up to this large event. I feel that history could indeed be repeating itself again, as we may in the near future, experience yet another large mass hostage- taking in Russia later this year with significant bomb attacks leading up to it, which have already started.
However I believe that Chechen Terrorism in itself has gone from being a nationalist struggle for independence into a Jihadi-Style war waged against Russian soldiers across the mainly Islamic 'North Caucasus' since many attacks occur not only within Chechnya nowadays but within Ingushetia and Dagestan also, only adding to many more problems indeed since Russia, is now effectively fighting in at least 2-3 republics now, instead of just the 1 beforehand.
However after the events, surrounding 'Beslan' some could say that the terrorist's have learnt that Mass-Hostage Taking effectively gets them no where since there has been more than 5 years without a particular incident in Russia.
This is because they effectively achieved nothing and got no such guarantee's for their independence and yet they also lost quite alot of men in the process.
However I believe that violence is indeed returning to Russia this year, after a 5 year lull. This is due to much much more frequent attacks upon law enforcement officers in these Southern Russian republics, as well as bombings and suicide bombings returning to cause havoc upon Moscow and in surrounding areas, as well as other Russian cities deeper into the country and more further away from the Caucasus.