Was There a Recent Coup Attempt in China?
by Gordon G. Chang
World Affairs
According to a report, around New Year’s day officers in two Chinese air force units were arrested on suspicion of plotting a coup. At the same time, a nuclear submarine on patrol was ordered back to port because some on board were thought to have links with the plotters. This report, circulated on Sunday on a China-watching listserv, remains unconfirmed. This rumor could be linked in some fashion to the detention last month of Colonel Tan Linshu, of the Chinese navy, for subversion.
A coup at first glance seems inconceivable, but there has been an evident erosion in civilian control of the Chinese military in recent years. The most important manifestation of this breakdown is that colonels and flag officers have begun openly criticizing civilian leaders and are now speaking out on matters once considered the exclusive province of diplomats.
What’s happening? From all indications, senior officers have gained influence in top Communist Party circles as civilian leaders have, since the early part of last decade, looked to them to settle power struggles in Beijing. Today, that trend is continuing as generals and admirals are involving themselves in a major leadership transition set to formally begin at the end of this year at the 18th Party Congress.
China Communist Party bureaucrats like their cars high end
Comments
This sounds rather far-fetched, but there can be no doubt about the fact that controlling the military (and avoiding having the military control them) is going to be a progressive headache for the communist party. As the Buddha said, it is as certain as the cart follows the horse.....If a political system has no transparent legitimate basis, its going to rely on the army and the army is going to figure that out by and by.
And I think that a VERY small, but not infinitesimally small, part will be played by the glorious Pakistani army. The Pak army's paknationalist wing claims to take inspiration from China. Their friends in the PLA may think they are teaching them things. But when you stare into the abyss, the abyss also stares into you. Over Shandong Marys late at night, some Pakistani general will one day ask his Chinese friend "Comrade, why do the civilians get to take your BMW away from you?".
I am kidding. No Pakistani general can speak Mandarin (yet) so this dream may not come true...