Bob Tollast interviews Hayder al-Khoei on developments in Iraq and the Iraqi view of events in Syria. See the interview for more of al-Khoei's views on the tenuous political situation in Iraq.
As for Syria today, generally speaking, the Shia fear a post-Assad Syria and what they see as a Saudi-backed plot to weaken regional Shia power. These voices may not like Assad and some may even see the Alawis of Syria as a heretical sect, but they view Saudi influence in the Middle East as a bigger threat to the region and that is why they stand behind Assad, or refuse to undermine him. Iran sees Syria as vital ally in the region and a corridor to Lebanon. Iraq, by abstaining from the Arab League vote on Syria, made it clear that it, too, fears it will become the victim of a destabilised Syria. The New York Times ran a piece in August saying that Iraq was nudged by Iran on this issue, but what many Westerners fail to understand is the fear of many Iraqis, who have been subject to a brutal sectarian campaign over the years, who believe a post-Assad conflict in Syria would spill over.
Comments
The article does an elegant job of what I call and have called since 2005 "Shia sidestepping"--meaning when the fingers point to Shia insurgents or Shia ethnic cleansing it is always the others meaning Sunni's fault.
Yes we the US abandoned the Shia uprising in 1991, but Sunni Salafists also rose up and were brutally put down as well by Saddam.
Yes in Ramadi and Fulluja Shia resistance groups fought along side Sunni insurgent groups and even fought along side them up to mid to late 2007.
Yes the Sunni insurgents started using EFPs in early 2004---although later perfected and mass produced by Iran and used by Shia insurgent groups against the US.
Yes the Sunni insurgents mass produced HME and in turn sold large quanities to the Shia groups.
Yes the Shia groups and to a larger degree even Iran has activitely at some point even supported and still supports AQI in Iraq.
Yes there has been cross selling of weapons between Shia and Sunni insurgent groups.
AND yes a large number of the reported torture and illegal prisons are Iraqi military run and controlled---BY a Shia military---that has never been clearly addressed even by this author in this article. He does an elegant job of critizing individuals who might be at fault but there is no critique of the Shia government and it's leadership for allowing it to continue as they could if they wanted to---shut it down. It though plays to the fear that the Shia majority is trying to instill in the Iraqi Sunni population as a whole.
BUT the core question in Syria is that the majority of the population is Sunni and the core Syrian leadership is a minority based Shia sect. Just the mirror image reverse of Saddam's Iraq.
BUT what is far more at stake from the Shia perspective and not mentioned in the article is the famous quote that we often ignor that came of out the 1979 Iranian Revolution---namely the creation of the "Green Cresent" and the secondary concept of "who owns the old Silk Road" controls the ME.
The author while Shia needs to fully address the overall situation and not view events in either Iraq or Syria without fully addressing all aspects of the internal 1400 year old Sunni/Shia divide.
Syria got involved in Iraq via their own Baathist party, the Syrian Sunni population also supported the Iraqi Sunni movements,yes foreign fighters came via Syria, yes hundreds of former Iraqi Baathists and Army/IIS officers fled to Syria, and Syria became a safe haven for literally thousands of Iraqi Sunni refugees from the ethnic cleansing---which actually started in mid 2005 in areas of Diyala.
So why is it a surprise that there is now a common bond between both Sunni populations?
Saudi involvement is a natural given as it's focus is on the defeat of the creation of the "Green Cresent"---that has not changed for a single moment since 2003. We often fail to see that Saudi views itself the "protector" of the Sunni movement (just as Iran does for the Shia side) and that the "Green Cresent" is a perceived threat to three of their borders.
Syria boils down to regional power politics-with the three current powers of the US, Russia and China all playing their roles and if Syria results in some form of "Arab Spring" event the impact of that will be felt literally throughout the entire ME---that is the inherent danger---the ME could in fact become unhinged for years before it restabilizes.
It is all about that 1400 year old dispute--nothing more nothing less.
Hi Madhu,
I am Bob Tollast who conducted the interview.
Throughout the duration of the Iraq war, Eastern parts of Syria were a safe haven for qaeda fighters and support moving into Iraq. Allegedly Assad tolerated this, even though AQI represent at threat to his government and his leadership generally opposed hard line radical Sunni Islam. Assad certainly tolerated people going on Syrian t.v and preaching armed Jihad against America in Iraq.
So AQI, in line with their policy of wanting to topple "secular" autocracy' like Assad's, are rushing men and weapons to join the fight in the hope that when Assad goes, they will come out on top and be able to declare an "Islamic state of syria."
Basically Assads al Qaeda chickens are coming home to roost. And they are brining with them weapons from Iraq, and some IED experience.
Hope that helps
-Bob.