News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Pentagon Seeks to Soften Blow of U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan

2. The many US blunders that contributed to looming disaster in Afghanistan

3. How the Afghanistan Withdrawal Costs the U.S. With China

4. Opinion - Why Is Biden’s Foreign Policy So… Conventional? - John Feffer

5. Facebook, Twitter, Google Threaten to Quit Hong Kong Over Proposed Data Laws

6. Biden administration still weighing CIA drone strike policy amid Afghanistan withdrawal

7.  AFSOC's Unique Array for Armed Overwatch Competition

8. Israel Takes U.S. Military Weapons And Makes Them Even Deadlier

9. Fond memories from a US military attache

10. The Chinese Communist Party is a secret society

11. Military braces for sea change on justice reform

12. China Copied and Stole Its Way to Becoming a Military Juggernaut

13. Where Is the Sage of Air Power Doctrine?

14. Radicalization Of Women A Worrying Trend – Analysis

15. Republicans have more friends across the political divide than Democrats, study finds

16. How Three Women Exposed an Army Lt. Colonel’s Crazy Secret Life

 

1. Pentagon Seeks to Soften Blow of U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan

The New York Times · by Eric Schmitt · July 4, 2021

Excerpts: “Finally, having General Miller stay on a few more weeks, and extending the security umbrella at least through August, is intended to offer, if nothing else, a boost for beleaguered Afghan troops. Pentagon officials said that exiting Bagram Air Base and having General Miller leave at the same time would have been a devastating blow to Afghan morale.

“A safe, orderly drawdown enables us to maintain an ongoing diplomatic presence, support the Afghan people and the government, and prevent Afghanistan from once again becoming a safe haven for terrorists that threatens our homeland,” Mr. Kirby said.

The White House joined in the reassurance messaging campaign on Friday — up to a point. Mr. Biden said that even though the United States still retained the ability to conduct airstrikes to protect the Afghan government, no reversal of the withdrawal was on the table.

“We have worked out an over-the-horizon capacity,” he said, talking about American warplanes and armed Reaper drones based mainly in the Persian Gulf, “but the Afghans are going to have to do it themselves with the air force they have.”

But all American combat troops and aircraft are now out of Afghanistan, officials said, so any military support to the Afghan forces will have to come from American bases eight hours away in Qatar or the United Arab Emirates.

“Our leaving does not end the war. It just ends the American involvement,” said John R. Allen, a retired four-star Marine Corps general who commanded U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan from 2011 to 2013, and oversaw the beginning of the drawdown of allied forces there, from 150,000 troops to about 11,000, at the end of 2014. “The war will continue.”

 

2. The many US blunders that contributed to looming disaster in Afghanistan

CNN · by Peter Bergen

Excerpts: “Could there have been another way? Perhaps. It could have been more politically and financially sustainable to "go light and go long" in Afghanistan, keeping several thousand US troops in the country focused on counterterrorism operations and supporting the Afghan military, while emphasizing the US' commitment to stay in Afghanistan long-term. That commitment would have boosted the morale of the Afghan government and military and undercut the Taliban's view that they could simply wait out the Americans -- which they have done.

Now that Biden has finally done what two previous presidents have seriously considered, the likely result is that Afghanistan will descend into an intense civil war -- and every jihadist terrorist group in the world will find a congenial home in the ensuing chaos.

 

3. How the Afghanistan Withdrawal Costs the U.S. With China

defenseone.com · by Richard Fontaine and Vance Serchuk · July 4, 2021

Excerpts: “Yet history suggests that hoping for the best in the greater Middle East rarely works out well for the United States. It also reveals how unrest there can upend Washington’s best-laid designs. The Bush administration entered office expecting to devote its foreign policy to—you guessed it—the rise of China, only to be derailed by the 9/11 attacks. Twelve years later, the Obama administration likewise began its second term resolved to focus on Asia, only for the emergence of the Islamic State to end those ambitions. In this respect, an effective counterterrorism strategy in places like Afghanistan is not the enemy of a strong China policy, but the precondition for it.

To avoid a repetition of this history, the Biden administration now has little choice but to scramble for military and diplomatic work-arounds as a result of its own withdrawal policy. Hanging in the balance is not just homeland security against terrorism and the fundamental human rights of millions of Afghans threatened by the Taliban, but America’s own capacity for strategic coherence.

Indeed, it’s difficult to see how Washington will be able to sustain the case that countering Huawei and the Belt and Road Initiative ought to be its foremost national-security priorities in a world where transnational jihadists are once again on the march and millions of refugees are fleeing across international borders. Even with the threat of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State seemingly at an all-time low, in public polling Americans still consistently, on a bipartisan basis, identify countering terrorism as an equal if not greater foreign-policy priority than rivalry with Beijing. If Afghanistan again falls into instability, America’s ambition for great-power competition with China may prove among its many tragic and unnecessary casualties.

 

4. Opinion - Why Is Biden’s Foreign Policy So… Conventional? - John Feffer

commondreams.org  ·  by John Feffer

From a very progressive foreign policy analyst who has never seen a military budget that cannot be cut. Excerpts: “The administration’s position on military spending, however, suggests that Biden is wedded to the most conventional of thinking.

The United States is poised to end its intervention in Afghanistan and reduce its commitments in the Middle East. It is not involved in any major military conflicts. Everyone is wondering how the administration is going to pay for its ambitious infrastructure plans.

So, why has Biden asked for a larger military budget? The administration’s 2022 request for the Pentagon is $715 billion, an increase of $10 billion, plus an additional $38 billion for military-related spending at the Energy Department and other agencies.

True, the administration is hoping to boost non-military spending by a larger percentage. It is planning to remove the “overseas contingency operations” line item that funded the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

But if there ever was a time to reduce U.S. military spending, it’s now. The pandemic proved the utter worthlessness of tanks and destroyers in defending the homeland from the most urgent threats. Greater cooperation with China, a renewed nuclear pact with Iran, and détente with both Cuba and North Korea would all provide powerful reasons for the United States to reduce military spending.

 

5.  Facebook, Twitter, Google Threaten to Quit Hong Kong Over Proposed Data Laws

WSJ · by Newley Purnell

I wonder what kind of impact this might have on intelligence operations. Surely these services provide insight for intelligence analysis.

But of course these firms are at risk due to the Chinese "laws."

Hong Kong is no longer "free."

 

6. Biden administration still weighing CIA drone strike policy amid Afghanistan withdrawal

CNN · by Zachary Cohen, Natasha Bertrand and Katie Bo Williams, CNN

Excerpts: “What that capability would look like remains unclear. While there has been significant discussion by the administration about conducting "over the horizon" counter-terrorism missions from further away, those will not be nearly as effective as the current US strike capability and the resource commitment will be much more costly, said one of the sources familiar with the ongoing deliberations.

Targets in Afghanistan have also become more scarce, the sources said, and the resources required to maintain a presence and carry out those operations, particularly against more low-level actors, are no longer considered worth it by many in the administration.

"Every shot, against a high-value target or against some low-level operative, costs basically the same" said the source familiar with the ongoing discussions.

As the administration continues to work through several logistical challenges on that front, Kim said it would make sense, as part of those deliberations, to review the criteria for how high-value targets are determined given the US will have fewer resources at its disposal.

"When you have fewer ISR capabilities and fewer strike capabilities, it's inherently going to put strain on what they can target," he said, referring to lethal strikes carried out by both the Pentagon and CIA.

"So they would certainly want to try to narrow that to their top priorities, to make sure that it's being utilized in the most effective way."

 

7. AFSOC's Unique Array for Armed Overwatch Competition

realcleardefense.com · by Dan Gouré

Conclusion: Evaluating these aircraft against a set of already challenging requirements will be tough enough for AFSOC. The five competitors are so different that it will likely be difficult to perform a comparative evaluation. Several will have to undergo extensive modifications to meet the minimum thresholds for the flyoff. When considerations of supportability, training, flexibility, and growth potential are included, AFSOC may find itself confronting multiple dilemmas in down selecting to one aircraft.

 

8. Israel Takes U.S. Military Weapons And Makes Them Even Deadlier

19fortyfive.com · by Charlie Gao · July 5, 2021

 

9.  Fond memories from a US military attache

Bangkok Post · by Bangkok Post Public Company Limited

Pretty cool anecdote: “One of my greatest honours was in 2019 and 2020. I was honoured to be asked to teach a class to Thai Military Academy Cadets in Nakhon Nayok with Her Royal Highness Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn. It was such an honour that I will cherish all my life.

Princess Sirindhorn attended the class when I lectured about US strategy or doctrine and always treated me with kindness and grace. Princess Sirindhorn was graceful and had a wonderful sense of humour. She even sang me the song called The Ballad of the Green Berets.

I could not believe she knew this song and I asked her how she knew it. She said she went to the Special Forces Command in Lop Buri with her father, His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej The Great, and met a team of US Special Forces there.

She told me that her mother, Her Majesty Queen Sirikit The Queen Mother, always liked the American Green Beret songs and had memorised many of them. She played the songs so she learned them this way and never forgot them.

 

10. The Chinese Communist Party is a secret society

asiatimes.com · by Patrick Baert · July 4, 2021

Excerpts: “CCP meetings include a five-yearly congress, which usually ends with the near-unanimous adoption of decisions.

High-level meetings of the 200-strong Central Committee take place behind closed doors, as do those of the Political Bureau, the inner cabinet.

State television usually broadcasts an officially approved readout later.

The debates, if there are any, are not made public.

“Hiding internal tensions allows the CCP to present a steel facade to its enemies and those of China,” Cabestan explained.

 

11. Military braces for sea change on justice reform

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · July 4, 2021

The times are changing. All major crimes?

Excerpts: “Biden administration officials, up to President Biden himself, have endorsed taking the decision to prosecute sexual assault and related crimes out of the chain of command.

But dozens of lawmakers, led by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), want to take almost all major crimes out of the chain of command, saying only changing how sex crimes are prosecuted could create a two-tiered justice system.

 

12.  China Copied and Stole Its Way to Becoming a Military Juggernaut

19fortyfive.com · by Robert Farley · July 4, 2021

 

13. Where Is the Sage of Air Power Doctrine?

The National Interest · by James Holmes · July 4, 2021

Excerpts: “Here’s the rub, though. Like command of the sea, command of the air may be incomplete, impermanent, or both. A defeated foe may still have options. Its air force may have been driven off yet escape destruction to fight again another day. The vanquished could rebuild. They could find allies boasting strong air forces of their own. Thus the fighter community’s work is never done. Ground-attack planes could find themselves in trouble from hostile aircraft or ground fire. At that point fighters must resume their all-important support function, succoring their vulnerable brethren and thence the army. They resume the struggle for air supremacy just as a navy’s battle fleet may find itself forced to renew the fight against a rejuvenated enemy fleet.

Close air support in embattled skies most closely resembles a close naval blockade of coasts that bristle with gun batteries and may harbor fugitive enemy ships intent on breaking the blockade or denying the triumphant fleet the harvest of victory at sea. Naval commanders wouldn’t withdraw the battle fleet from such a scene even after trouncing the enemy in action. They would instruct the fleet to remain vigilant in case cruisers and flotilla craft needed protection afresh. Similarly, air commanders ought not assume they are entitled to permanent, absolute air supremacy by virtue of a victorious air battle. Instead they should choreograph operations so fighter forces are positioned to defend aircraft performing their special work. In other words, they must manage the symbiosis among the components of the air force.

Bottom line, the elements of air forces are interdependent just as capital ships, cruisers, and flotilla craft prowling the sea are interdependent. To circle back to where we started, the U.S. Air Force should evaluate candidates for the light-attack mission as part of a larger flying force—not as aircraft that must fight or die bereft of support from fellow airmen. Surveying them in a vacuum begets an abstract, artificial, and misleading way of thinking about air power—as would be immediately apparent to aviators steeped in air-power theory.

We can—and must—do better. Will the Corbett of air power please step forward?

 

14. Radicalization Of Women A Worrying Trend – Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by Mohamed Bin Ali and Ahmad Saiful Rijal Bin Hassan · July 2, 2021

Conclusion: “Women play a huge role in the formation and development of families and communities.

The great role that has been played by the wives of the Prophet Muhammad and the companions in supporting Islamic religious activities led to the formation of an early Islamic nation in Medina.

Due to the high regards of women in Islam and also the nature of gentleness that God has created in them, women have a huge role in bringing peace to the world and not the other way around.

The trend of women becoming radicalised in societies today is something of great concern. It should be addressed even more seriously with effective and long term strategy.

Hopefully with this awareness, we will be able to produce a generation of women who are key advocates of peace and can play an important role in the ongoing efforts against terrorism and extremism.

 

15. Republicans have more friends across the political divide than Democrats, study finds

The Washington Post · by Lisa Bonos · July 3, 2021

And I would argue independents have more than both! There are more independents these days and I certainly have friends from across the entire spectrum.

 

 

16. How Three Women Exposed an Army Lt. Colonel’s Crazy Secret Life

The Daily Beast · by Emily Shugerman · July 3, 2021

Sheesh. This disgrace to the US army has certainly misunderstood what it means to be a civil affairs officer. It does not allow you to have affairs with civilians.

 

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"All men profess honesty as long as they can. To believe all men honest would be folly. To believe none so is something worse."

- John Quincy Adams

 

"We must be free not because we claim freedom, but because we practice it."

- William Faulkner

 

"I like to see a man proud of the place in which he lives. I like to see a man live so that his place will be proud of him."

- Abraham Lincoln

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Reform and open North Korea is the only way for economic unification of Korean Peninsula

2. Can North Korea Survive Without Its Chairman?

3. ＜Inside N. Korea＞The Death Toll is Finally Starting to Rise. A Serious Humanitarian Crisis is a Man-made Disaster. Jiro Ishimaru

4. South Korea, US tilting toward downsizing combined drill

5. U.S. Insists on Joint Drill Schedule in August

6. Seoul, Washington agree to reduce the size of military exercises

7. New USFK commander pressed on Opcon transfer by Suh

8. Computer simulation exercises make N. Korea even emboldened

9. China criticizes U.S. for several decades’ menace to N. Korea

10. How will ‘emaciated’ Kim Jong-un ride out a famine in North Korea? With China’s help

11. China's role growing in North Korean denuclearization

12. Int'l Red Cross stays committed to helping N. Korea, ready to resume assistance projects

13. Not by the Gun Alone: Biographies of Kim Jong Un and the Puzzling Power of North Korean Leaders

14. S. Korea, Israel to speed up joint R&D projects

15. N. Korea hit recently with greater volatility in prices, exchange rate: ministry

16. Hyesan residential housing complex set alight after gas explosion

17. Two soldiers flee after murdering kindergarten teacher and her mother in Hoeryong

 

1. Reform and open North Korea is the only way for economic unification of Korean Peninsula

onekoreanetwork.com · July 4, 2021

From our good friend RI Jong-ho formerly of north Korea with deep knowledge of the Kim family regime. Again, the north Korean paradox: north Korea must reform to save the country and its people. However, reform and opening is an existential threat to the Kim family regime.

We must understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. For those who want to engage north Korea I urge you to answer my two key questions:

1. Do we see any evidence that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

2. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

 

If the answer is no then we must proceed accordingly with our own superior political warfare strategy.

Two key points:

“To understand North Korea properly, we need to know the nature of the Kim family and the dictatorship and why it hasn’t opened the country for 75 years. In North Korea, the means of production, land, and resources are all owned by the state, meaning it’s all owned by Kim Jong-un. It is said that Kim Jong-un is the nation and the party and represents the military and the people. He monopolizes everything in North Korea, decides everything, and all the wealth is focused on him, the absolute power. Therefore, even if the South requests cooperation from the North, it can only be executed after receiving Kim Jong-un’s policy and decision.

...

From a North Korean perspective, President Moon Jae-in’s policy of peaceful coexistence is an anachronistic delusional policy. President Moon is proposing a policy to engage in a peaceful resolution with a North Korean dictator who dreams of armed reunification by committing crimes against humanity.”

 

And I fully concur with Mr. Ri's conclusion: “As world history and the 75-year history of the Korean Peninsula have shown, the two opposing system cannot peacefully coexist. I think peace on the Korean Peninsula will be achieved when institutional unification is established with liberal democracy and a market economy rather than emotional logic. Therefore, we should all actively try to change the communist dictatorship of North Korea, which is a cancerous enemy of unification of the Korean Peninsula.”

​I would say it this way: ​The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

 

2. Can North Korea Survive Without Its Chairman?

thediplomat.com · by Chan Young Bang · July 2, 2021

While succession may be tenuous due to the nature of the regime I disagree with the conclusion here:

“To ensure the survival of North Korea, Kim Jong Un must trade his nuclear arsenal for economic prosperity and peace. By creating a viable economic development plan that guides economic modernization over a 10 year period, Kim can ensure the sovereignty of North Korea during and after his rule. The blueprint must consist of human resources development, viable labor markets, the legalization of free enterprise, increased foreign investment, and the introduction of private property rights. An economic development fund as part of a package deal with China, Russia, Japan, the United States, and South Korea could be issued annually in accordance with North Korea’s successful fulfillment of its denuclearization obligations. By relinquishing juche, and replacing his ruling legitimacy with an inclusive economic system focused on the economic wellbeing of the people, Kim Jong Un will cement his legacy and the survival of the DPRK, with the popular support of the 25 million citizens of North Korea.”

KJU is not going to give up his nuclear weapons. He is not going to act in the best interests of the country or of the 25 million Koreans' living in the north. He is only going to act in the best interests of the regime and ultimately only himself. He cannot reform. To change is to die within the regime.

 

3. ＜Inside N. Korea＞The Death Toll is Finally Starting to Rise. A Serious Humanitarian Crisis is a Man-made Disaster. Jiro Ishimaru

asiapress.org

Important analysis here. It is not the sanctions causing the suffering. It is Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions.

Excerpts: “Since the beginning of June, the lives of the North Korean people have been deteriorating as if a weir had been broken. It is frustrating that the reality of the situation has not been conveyed to the world. This is because the Kim Jong-un regime has closed the borders to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, preventing people from coming in and out of the country, thus preventing information from being released. The writer has maintained contact with his reporting partners using a Chinese cell phone brought into North Korea. However, the current situation is judged to be the worst humanitarian crisis in Asia.

As I have mentioned several times before, the cause of the crisis was the blockade of the border with China, which led to a sharp decline in trade. It was also the tightening of controls on movement and commerce within the country as if martial law had been declared.

The significant slump in trade and markets reduced everyone's cash income. Food is no longer available from those who have depleted their reserves. The situation that residents feared a year ago, "I'm more afraid of hunger than of coronavirus," has become a reality. Vulnerable groups such as single older people, single mothers, and families with sick people were the first to fall on hard times.

 

4. South Korea, US tilting toward downsizing combined drill

The Korea Times  · by Kang Seung-woo · July 5, 2021

There is some reporting on the August combined exercises today and I will forward the various articles (to include an OpEd). I will say again it is delusional to believe that by scaling back the exercises (or postponing or cancelling) will result in any kind of positive response from north Korea. In fact doing so only leads to KJU doubling down on his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.

We must train. We must conduct multi-echelon training with the right training for the right forces, e.g., field exercises for tactical units and Combined Command Post training with computer simulation for the higher HQ).

My thoughts with background on the exercises are here: The North Korea Threat Is Growing. U.S.-South Korea Military Training Must Press Forward. 

 

5. U.S. Insists on Joint Drill Schedule in August

english.chosun.com

As we should (and must).

While it may be true that the South Korean military authorities may be trying to "wrangle a reduction in scope or scale," I am confident they are doing it under duress and at the behest of the civilian political leadership. I am sure they have provided their advice and recommendations as to why it is necessary to conduct this combined training and that it must not be scaled back and especially not postponed:”Buut South Korean military authorities are still trying to wrangle a reduction in scope or scale. "I understand that the joint drills will highly likely be conducted for about 10 days from Aug. 16 without any field maneuvers," a military source said.

 

6. Seoul, Washington agree to reduce the size of military exercises

donga.com · July 5, 2021

We should not forget that live tactical training occurs year around and it is not necessary for large scale exercises for tactical units to get field training.

Excerpts: “But as they decided to reduce the size, the possibility of field training exercise not being held for four years since August 2018 has become higher. It seems that the U.S. more or less accepted South Korea’s judgement that normalizing the drill size would provoke North Korea, which has been demanding suspension of it, thus putting a damper on the resumption of the U.S.-North Korea talks. “Our talks with the U.S. were successful,” said a South Korean government insider. “Military authorities of the two countries will continue to discuss on details such as content of the drills and reinforcement of the U.S. troops.”

 

The joint military drills planned to be held in March last year was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In August last year and March this year, the drills were significantly reduced in size and conducted in computer simulation without live training.

 

7. New USFK commander pressed on Opcon transfer by Suh

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim · July 5, 2021

But Minister Suh must know that without conducting robust training exercises the ROK/US CFC will not be prepared for OPCON transition. The ROK must choose between readiness and preparing for OPCON transition or appeasing north Korea and KJU with delusional concessions such as scaling back, postponing, or cancelling exercises.

 

8.  Computer simulation exercises make N. Korea even emboldened

donga.com · July 5, 2021

Concessions embolden KJU to double down on blackmail diplomacy. Those who advocate cancelling, postponing, and scaling back exercises are willing to put the ROK and its people at grave risk.

Excerpts: “But the decision is only making North Korea even more emboldened. The size of military exercises started to shrink on the premise that the North would continue discussions and stop provocations in 2018 when inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea summits were held. But Pyongyang has been holding onto the ambiguous tensions between talks and conflicts, refusing all types of negotiations since the end of 2019. The North provokes South Korea with its short distance missiles without hesitation while pretending that it retrained itself from using nuclear and long-distance missiles, earning time to enhance its nuclear capacity.

Such abnormal situations have persisted for four years, which is creating concerns that our military readiness posture is weakening and the very existence of the U.S. troops in South Korea is becoming precarious. The joint military drills are the pillar of the South Korea-U.S. alliance along with the U.S. troops in South Korea and combined forces command. It is naturally difficult for the combined forces command to effectively respond to surprise military provocations of North Korea only with sub-battalion level drills without live training. This is exactly what the North intends.

 

9. China criticizes U.S. for several decades’ menace to N. Korea

donga.com  · July 5, 2021

And China supports the most despotic authoritarian regime that conducts crimes against humanity on a scale not seen since WWII according to the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry. And China is compact in those human rights abuses by not treating escapees from the north as refugees and providing them the protections required by international law. Instead they forcibly repatriate them to certain inhumane punishment and possibly execution.

 

10. How will ‘emaciated’ Kim Jong-un ride out a famine in North Korea? With China’s help

SCMP · by Maria Siow

No war, no instability and regime collapse, and no nukes. Expect China to throw a lifeline to help keep the regime's head above water. But it is unlikely to pull the regime to shore and make it stronger. It will ensure that the regime stays afloat and the status quo is maintained for as long as possible.

 

11. China's role growing in North Korean denuclearization

The Korea Times  · by Kang Seung-woo · July 5, 2021

For China, denuclearization is the last priority. No war and no instability are far more important to China.

We should also keep in mind that while China can exert influence over north Korea, the Kim family regime has been successful for 70+ years at manipulating all the powers to include Russia and China.

Excerpt: “China is seen as the only country that can exert influence on North Korea, given that it is Pyongyang's biggest trading partner and the Kim regime's economic lifeline. In addition, the North Korean leader vowed to elevate relations with Beijing to a new strategic level in his congratulatory message to Chinese President Xi Jinping marking the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China, Thursday.

 

12. Int'l Red Cross stays committed to helping N. Korea, ready to resume assistance projects

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 5, 2021

The Red Cross (and the ROK, US and international community) is committed to helping north Korea. Kim Jong-un is not committed to receiving it.

 

13. Not by the Gun Alone: Biographies of Kim Jong Un and the Puzzling Power of North Korean Leaders

Los Angeles Review of Books · July 4, 2021

Two important books that are based on very different sources of analysis and use very different "analytical" techniques. Keep in mind Dr. Jung Pak is now the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific and the deputy Special Representative to North Korea. So her book can provide insights into the type of advice she is likely to provide our government about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

 

14. S. Korea, Israel to speed up joint R&D projects

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 5, 2021

 

15. N. Korea hit recently with greater volatility in prices, exchange rate: ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 5, 2021

Typing to centrally control the north Korean economy leads only to failure. The crackdown on markets, the prohibition of foreign currency, the restrictions on movement, communications, and information and the closure of the border with China to both legal and illicit trade only makes things worse.

 

16. Hyesan residential housing complex set alight after gas explosion

dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · July 5, 2021

The state, government, and party are not able to provide effective essential services to the people.

Just like in August, the local fire department failed to arrive at the scene until two hours after the fire began – and after local residents had already subdued the blaze.

 

17. Two soldiers flee after murdering kindergarten teacher and her mother in Hoeryong

dailynk.com · July 5, 2021

Any indications of the breakdown in the three chains of control? (military, political security). 

Again, we have to think about the possibility fo instability and what it means if the military chain of control breaks down and the military loses coherency and support for the regime ends.

Quote from "Should The United States Support for Korean Unification And If So, How?"

Regime collapse is defined as the loss of central governing effectiveness of the regime, combined with the loss of support and coherency of the military and security services. Although bottom-up internal resistance could lead to regime collapse, the regime’s demise is more likely to result from its inability to support the military and security services. Regime collapse is a result of friction within the regime elite and “deprioritization” of key military units. Regime collapse would likely lead to internal conflict, as actors fight to retain power and resources. In the worst case, when faced with significant internal or external pressure and the threat of regime collapse, Kim Jong-un might make the decision to execute his campaign plan to reunify the peninsula under his control, thus ensuring survival of his family’s regime (in his calculus). However, if collapse occurs without a direct attack on the ROK, the ROK–U.S. alliance, the UN Command, or both (and possibly also China) will likely have to conduct stabilization operations in the North to prevent spillover, establish security, restore stability, and relieve humanitarian suffering. Again, once the security situation is stabilized there could be a return to the ideal path to reunification. All of the planning and preparation that has taken place would still have value and could still be applied. Furthermore, many of the preparations could help mitigate the negative effects of regime collapse. (page 144-145,).

 

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"All men profess honesty as long as they can. To believe all men honest would be folly. To believe none so is something worse."

- John Quincy Adams

 

"We must be free not because we claim freedom, but because we practice it."

- William Faulkner

 

"I like to see a man proud of the place in which he lives. I like to see a man live so that his place will be proud of him."

- Abraham Lincoln

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Instructor Zero with an Independence Day Tribute

2. Austin approves new US Forces Afghanistan Forward command as drawdown nears early completion

3. China Will No Longer Be a Developing Country After 2023. Its Climate Actions Should Reflect That.

4. American ghosts of war will haunt Afghanistan

5. Imperiled for helping U.S. troops and stranded by bureaucracy, Afghan interpreters see Biden evacuation plan as last hope

6. China Has a BIG Plan for Post-U.S. Afghanistan—and It’s Worth Billions

7. Some Philippine troops jump before military plane crashes in flames, killing at least 45

8. Opinion | The Excesses of Antiracist Education

9. Perspective | Let’s celebrate Florida’s critical race theory student survey

10. Women Have a Key Role in Peace and Security. Yet Most Nations Overlook Them in Foreign Policy

11. What to know about Rise of the Moors, an armed group that says it’s not subject to U.S. law

12. Bodies, Bullets, and Blood: How Masculinity Influences Mass Killers

13. How Two Great Friends Overcame Politics

 

1. Instructor Zero with an Independence Day Tribute

Instructor Zero · July 4, 2021  

I would not normally send a Facebook Post but a good friend of mine flagged it and I think it is worth sharing.

My friend shared this comment: “Instructor Zero is an amazing firearms instructor, and Italian. His writing about the US and Independence Day brought tears to my eyes, at a time when i needed it. Enjoy. Happy Independence Day.”

 

2.  Austin approves new US Forces Afghanistan Forward command as drawdown nears early completion

Stars and Stripes · by Caitlin Doornbos · July 2, 2021

 

3. China Will No Longer Be a Developing Country After 2023. Its Climate Actions Should Reflect That.

thediplomat.com · by Mathias Lund Larsen · July 3, 2021

It is amazing that the country with the 2d largest economy in the world is only a "developing country."  

 

4. American ghosts of war will haunt Afghanistan

asiatimes.com · by Richard S Ehrlich · July 4, 2021

Ugh....

“I’m a skull worshipper,” Special Operations Command Sergeant-Major Raymond Cordell said in an interview at the time in Bagram Air Base, 67 kilometers north of Kabul.

“Young soldiers just tend to relate to things like that. That’s just the nature of people who join the army and do this for a living,” Cordell said.

“As a leader, you try to hone out those things that different soldiers are attracted to. For me, it has always worked to be skulls.”

But this is a helluva an anecdote and warning:

“Any Americans remaining in Afghanistan to support the vulnerable regime, however, may want to heed the experience of Russians who stayed in Kabul after Soviet forces withdrew in 1989.

Yuri Tyssovski, the Kabul bureau chief of the Russian news agency TASS, chose to change his residence when his countrymen withdrew.

Hurriedly boxing up his belongings in his suburban Kabul home in 1989, and calling for his pet German shepherd which was trained to sniff out land mines, Tyssovski said in an interview:

“I am only moving into the Soviet Embassy across the street for safety. My boss asked me if I wanted to leave Afghanistan, but I told him no, because I want to stay on and continue my work. It is my duty.

“I will stay one year more. It will be difficult for us. There are various predictions of how the situation will be.

“It may be awfully bad, moderately bad, not so bad, or even good. So, let us see. It is impossible to guess anything, so why be worried about it?”

Tyssovski had recently been wounded in a U.S.-backed mujahideen guerrilla attack during a Soviet media trip in eastern Afghanistan.

Pulling down one side of his pants, he displayed horrible scars on his thigh where shrapnel ripped into him.

“I have a whole arsenal in this house, including hand grenades which I hate. But I need them for protection.”

He raised his glass of vodka in a toast and laughing, in an almost painful way, said:

“One day the rebels are going to come for me. But I am ready. I have already cut off my balls and put them in the refrigerator, so I can hand them to the mujahideen when they arrive!”

 

5. Imperiled for helping U.S. troops and stranded by bureaucracy, Afghan interpreters see Biden evacuation plan as last hope

The Washington Post · by Pamela Constable and Ezzatullah Mehrdad · July 3, 2021

Excerpts: “Abdul Zubair Ebrahemi, 30, worked for the U.S. Army for three years and spent another three waiting for his visa, which was denied. As a combat translator, he said, “I was always on patrols. I served in the most dangerous southern provinces. I have medals and commendation letters. I was serving my country by helping America. I expected the U.S. government to support me.”

Instead, Ebrahimi said, his visa was denied because he had been “terminated” by the U.S. contracting firm that hired him. When he asked why, he was told the company was “not authorized to share the details.” When he heard about the planned U.S. evacuation plan, he said, “it gave me a huge hope, but because of this termination on my record, I am worried that I might be left behind.”

For Shirzad, the startling disconnect between the strong endorsements he received from his Navy SEAL superiors and the denial of his visa for “failure to provide faithful and valuable service” is both mystifying and maddening. This week, poring through photos of himself with American buddies in the field and letters from commanders citing his service “above and beyond the call of duty,” he sighed and shook his head.

“What more could I have given? Why was I punished?” he asked. “I may never know the answer.”

 

6. China Has a BIG Plan for Post-U.S. Afghanistan—and It’s Worth Billions

The Daily Beast · by Syed Fazl-e-Haider · July 4, 2021

Wishful thinking on someone's part? Maybe China is going to adopt a "COIN strategy:" clear, hold, build with emphasis on "build" as their silver bullet.

“China could well bring the Taliban on board with BRI. The insurgents have said they will support development projects if they serve Afghan national interests,” he added.

What China actually needs to extend its Belt and Road program to Afghanistan is, ultimately, peace. Beijing has gone so far as to offer infrastructure and energy projects worth billions of dollars to the Taliban in return for peace in Afghanistan.

“The Taliban isn’t the only challenge to overcome,” said Kugelman. “There are many sources of violence, both anti- and pro-state, in Afghanistan. So China will still face an extremely insecure environment, even if it gets Taliban buy-in for its projects.”

There’s no doubt that the strategic assets in Taxkorgan, Wakhan and Gwadar will strengthen China’s logistical infrastructure, helping it achieve its long-term economic and security objectives in the region.

Peace, though, remains the actual key to China’s master plan for a post-U.S. Afghanistan.

 

7. Some Philippine troops jump before military plane crashes in flames, killing at least 45

Reuters · by Karen Lema and Maria Ponnezhath

What a tragedy:

“The plane had attempted to land at Jolo airport, but overshot the runway without touching down. It failed to regain enough power and height and crashed at nearby Patikul.

"A number of soldiers were seen jumping out of the aircraft before it hit the ground, sparing them from the explosion caused by the crash," the Joint Task Force Sulu said in a statement.

...

The military command said the soldiers aboard had the rank of private and were being deployed to their battalions. They were flying to the provincial airport of Jolo from Laguindingan, about 460 km (290 miles) to the northeast.

...

The Lockheed C-130H Hercules aircraft, with registration 5125, had only recently arrived in the Philippines.

It was one of two aircraft provided by the U.S. government through the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, a government website said in January. It quoted an air force spokesman as saying the aircraft would boost capability for heavy airlift missions.

 

8. Opinion | The Excesses of Antiracist Education

The New York Times · by Ross Douthat · July 3, 2021

Excerpts: “But precisely because they don’t follow from modest and defensible conceptions of systemic racism, smart progressives in the media often retreat to those modest conceptions when challenged by conservatives — without acknowledging that the dubious conceptions are a big part of what’s been amplifying controversy, and conjuring up dubious Republican legislation in response.

Here one could say that figures like Kendi and DiAngelo, and the complex of foundations and bureaucracies that have embraced the new antiracism, increasingly play a similar role to talk radio in the Republican coalition. They represent an ideological extremism that embarrasses clever liberals, as the spirit of Limbaugh often embarrassed right-wing intellectuals. But this embarrassment encourages a pretense that their influence is modest, their excesses forgivable, and the real problem is always the evils of the other side.

That pretense worked out badly for the right, whose intelligentsia awoke in 2016 to discover that they no longer recognized their own coalition. It would be helpful if liberals currently dismissing anxiety over Kendian or DiAngelan ideas as just a “moral panic” experienced a similar awakening now — before progressivism simply becomes its excesses, and the way back to sanity is closed.

 

9. Perspective | Let’s celebrate Florida’s critical race theory student survey

The Washington Post · by Jay Mathews · July 3, 2021

Somehow I do not think a survey will be able to provide such answers and insights as those from students below. And of course the students below may not be representative of the average student as they provide some pretty sophisticated insights.

That said, students like these give me a lot of hope for our future. Neither the radical left nor the radical right will be successful as we continue to develop critical thinking young people.

 

10.  Women Have a Key Role in Peace and Security. Yet Most Nations Overlook Them in Foreign Policy

news18.com · July 3, 2021

Excerpts: “A feminist foreign policy approach could be useful in addressing issues that are key to women and enhancing the position of women in global and national platforms. This could bring greater pressure to bear on states to perform better, not just in making commitments but in delivering them as well. Such pressure is important because states would like to be seen as championing women’s cause. International normative pressure could thus play an important role in pushing states to pursue such an agenda more seriously. So, the demonstration effect of these issues being discussed at the international level is significant.

Thus, a more gender-sensitive foreign policy approach could create viable space for women in decision-making spaces, which could aid better representation and provide voice to those who have been on the margins. On the ground, this would mean creating an enabling environment that can facilitate broader, comprehensive approaches, innovative thinking, fostering diversity and balance, and embracing inclusion. This approach needs to evolve and develop certain standards at the global level that could make states more accountable to their commitments. These are not easy, and one can just look at the UNSCR 1325 compliance requirements. We still have quite some distance to travel.

 

11. What to know about Rise of the Moors, an armed group that says it’s not subject to U.S. law

The Washington Post · by Max Hauptman · July 4, 2021

Excerpts: “Rise of the Moors draws a link between its members and Indigenous peoples of the Americas.

“Especially with these sovereign Moorish groups, there is this idea that is rooted in ancient civilizations like the Aztecs, the Olmecs, Incas,” said Cruz. “They have this belief that the U.S. government has no right to be enforcing or creating laws in territories that don’t belong to them, so they see themselves as forming their own sovereign nation.”

Although 2020 saw an overall decrease in the number of anti-government groups, according to the SPLC, the amount of activity tracked by this group has increased.

“What we are seeing as well as the uptick in activity is the idea that these sovereign-citizen groups like Rise of the Moors, they try to prey on Black and Brown individuals,” said Cruz. “Typically with this idea that society is unfair and it preys on individuals who are maybe down on their luck, they have a place to turn where these groups promise a more fair and equitable society.”

 

12. Bodies, Bullets, and Blood: How Masculinity Influences Mass Killers

georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org · by Cody Kennedy · June 30, 2021

Conclusion:  “The following solutions can help U.S. policy-makers address mass shootings in a more coherent manner. First, policy-makers should establish school programs that require both female and male students to see school counselors regularly.This will help de-stigmatize mental health issues at an early age and make it less likely that they will be reluctant to ask for help later on. Second, public schools should mandate anger management courses to all male students in an effort to teach them healthy ways to cope with stress, anger, and depression. This will help men establish alternative solutions to address their problems and minimize the likelihood that they will resort to violence. If U.S. policy-makers are serious about addressing the issue of mass shootings, they need to consider how gender is impacting the motivations of these individuals. While instituting stricter gun control laws may help lower the overall number of mass shootings, it will not eliminate them entirely. The U.S. government must go beyond gun.”

 

13. How Two Great Friends Overcame Politics

WSJ · by Peggy Noonan

I have always been fascinated by the story of the end of their lives:

“Both men were near the end of their lives. Both held on for the great day. Wood reports Jefferson woke the night of the 3rd and asked if it was the 4th yet. His doctor said it soon would be. Early the next morning he woke again and called for his servants. Just after noon he died.

At the same time Adams, 500 miles to the north, lay dying. A memoir by Abigail’s nephew William Cranch, chief judge of the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, reports that Adams awoke on the Fourth to bells ringing and cannon booming. The celebrations had begun. Asked if he knew what day it was he said yes, “It is the glorious 4th of July—God bless it—God bless you all.” According to legend, just before he died at 6 p.m., he awoke and said, “Thomas Jefferson survives.”

What drove their reconciliation? A tenderness, toward history and toward themselves. They knew what their friendship had been. They had lived through and to a significant degree driven a world-historical event, the invention of America. They had shared that moment and it had been the great moment of their lives, greater than their presidencies, greater than what followed. They had been geniuses together.

As the Fourth explodes around us we should take some inspiration from the story of an old estrangement healed. We’re all trying to repair something. May you have a Benjamin Rush.

 

--------------

 

"We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness."

- Thomas Jefferson

 

"If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter."

- George Washington

 

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same."

- Ronald Reagan

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. August joint exercises will go on, says Pentagon

2. President Moon Jae-in's dog gifted from Kim Jong-un delivers 7 puppies

3. Ten years of standing on his own (Kim Jong-un)

4. Back to masking in Seoul as Covid cases spike

5. N. Korea not cooperating with global vaccine distribution program: report

6. North Korea Wants to Wage Its Very Own War on Drugs. It Might Not Go So Well.

7. Women’s Perspectives on a Peaceful Reunification of the Korean Peninsula — Women's Federation for World Peace USA

8. Hyundai to invest in U.S. battery startup SES: sources

9. Kim Jong-un Reverses Economic Reforms and Fires Top Aides

10. A great new Korean restaurant sets itself apart from the pack

 

1. August joint exercises will go on, says Pentagon

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Kim Sang-Jin and esther Chung· July 4, 2021

The combined and joint exercises.

An RFA  journalist asked me the following question.  My response will be too long for him to use on the radio (he did record me giving him the 1st four paragraphs):

“76 South Korea assemblymen from ruling party urged yesterday South Korea and US government to postpone US-South Korea joint military exercise scheduled to conduct in August for the purpose of having North Korea come to negotiation table. They claimed that US-South Korea joint military exercise is stumbling block for relations of North and South Korea, US and North Korea. Do you have comment on this?

Let me have your answer by noon today. Thank you.”

My response: “With all due respect to the 76 assemblymen, this is utter nonsense. It is a fantasy and delusion.  We have cancelled, postponed, and scaled back numerous exercises since June of 2018 and there has been absolutely no reciprocity from north Korea.

These 76 assemblymen are willing to put the security of the ROK and its people at grave risk.  Failure to train our combined military force undermines deterrence and reduces the ability to defend the ROK successfully.

Kim Jong-un uses the exercises as an excuse to conduct his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy in which he raises tensions, makes threats, and conducts provocations to gain political and economic concessions  Furthermore he is not calling for the end of exercises as a security guarantee. He is doing it to weaken the combined military force in order to achieve an advantage over the ROK and hold it hostage with its artillery and armored forces and the 4th largest Army in the world along the DMZ.

Calling for a cancellation of combined exercises is the height of irresponsibility. It will not lead to north-South engagement nor a return to the nuclear negotiating table.

I would put these two questions to the ROK assemblyman:

 

1. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

2.  In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

 

The answer to these two questions is most obviously "no."  If the assemblymen do not know this then they are admitting they do not understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

In addition, failing to conduct the exercises will have an impact on the OPCON transition process which the ruling party wants to complete so earnestly.  But if the above is an example of the strategic thinking of the ruling party, it has no business exercising wartime operational control of the combined forces.  It will surely lead to needless loss of blood and treasure if they are in charge.

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

Lastly, we should never forget that the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. 

 

2. President Moon Jae-in's dog gifted from Kim Jong-un delivers 7 puppies

The Korea Times · by Jun Ji-hye· July 4, 2021

Very interesting development.  Is this a subversive action by the north?  A way to infiltrate the South? 

We should not forget the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime.

But perhaps these are "special forces canines" and are attempting to infiltrate the Blue House to do what the nKPA SOF could not accomplish in 1968?

Note their special skills: “The dogs, bred to hunt tigers and other wild animals, are known to be agile, smart and ferocious toward their prey, but friendly and loyal to their human masters.

The question is who is their loyal human master?  Are these the ultimate sleeper agents?

(Note all semi-tongue in cheek).

 

3.  Ten years of standing on his own (Kim Jong-un)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Jeong Yong-soo· July 4, 2021

Kim Jong-un does have "experience."  Of the 2 revisionist and 2 rogue powers only Putin has been in power longer (Xi since 2013).

Interesting analysis but it is not the "international sanctions" that are the cause of the suffering in the north.

Excerpts: “North Korea’s about-turn since then to cut off all inter-Korean relations reflects its decision to blame South Korea for the collapse of the summit in Hanoi. For instance, Kim Yo-jong, the powerful younger sister of Kim Jong-un and vice department director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party, hurled unimaginable insults at the Blue House after backtracking on North Korea’s appreciation for the South Korean president’s mediation. The denuclearization talks also were put off once again after Trump and Kim got so close to untying the Gordian Knot.

 Under such circumstances, Kim Jong-un, chairman of the State Affairs Commission, took the drastic action of removing his father and grandfather’s names from the Constitution of the Workers’ Party after amending it in January. Kim also deleted their names from the name of a famous youth group — one of his next-generation power bases — to stand on his own feet 10 years after taking power. But his government still suffers from the triple whammies of the coronavirus, natural disasters like flooding, and international sanctions. The construction of the Wonsan-Kalma beach resort, scheduled to be finished by Kim Il Sung’s birthday on April 15 last year, and Pyongyang General Hospital, supposed to be completed by the Workers’ Party founding day on Oct. 10 last year, are still going on. The ambitious projects to show Chairman Kim’s “endless love for the people” are put on hold in the face of international sanctions with no glimmer of hope over the next round of negotiation for denuclearization.

In its June 28 edition, the North’s state mouthpiece Rodong Sinmun ran a pages-long special feature on Chairman Kim. Its title: “10 years of great revolutionary guidance shining in triumph and glory.” The newspaper summed up the past decade under Kim as a period of miracles.

The feature story quoted Kim as saying, “Wrapping up my 10 years of rule, I have faithfully followed in the footsteps of the Great Leader [Kim Il Sung] and the Great General [Kim Jong-il]. I will only take the same path forever. That is my conviction and determination.” After the shocks from Hanoi, Kim seems to have reflected on the 46 years of rule by his grandfather and the 37 years of rule by his father, including the period as heir. After the economy faced extreme hardships in 1997, Kim Jong-il told his subordinates to “not expect any change from me.” Five years later, however, he introduced some elements of market economics to help improve outmoded systems in the isolated country. Following his summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao in 2010, Kim Jong-il also put North-China ties back on track. The answer mostly lied with opening and communicating with the rest of the world.

In 2010, when he met a group of presidents of media organizations from South Korea, Kim Jong-il expressed a hope to visit and pay respects to the grave of the founder of the Jeonju Kim family in South Korea, to which he belongs. I look forward to his son taking the baton from his father and taking a step forward instead of adhering to a path of seclusion.

 

4. Back to masking in Seoul as Covid cases spike

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Seo Ji-Eun · July 4, 2021

Masks work (at least in Korea)

 

5. N. Korea not cooperating with global vaccine distribution program: report

en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · July 4, 2021

This report is based on the very important report from Voice of America (William Gallo).  The Korean media is picking up on this as it relies on VOA and Radio Free asia for supplemental reporting.  This is one of the important contributions made by VOA and RFA (and USGMA more broadly).  They provide reports not often found in the mainstream media.  And they have enormous influence in the foreign media space.

As many Korea watchers will note but many pundits and the press (and north Korean sympathizers and useful idiots) seem to overlook is that the US and the ROK and the international community are willing to help the north with COVID and other humanitarian needs but it is Kim Jong-un who does not cooperate.  But those who sympathize with nK would rather try to make the ROK and US look like the bad guys.

 

6. North Korea Wants to Wage Its Very Own War on Drugs. It Might Not Go So Well.

19fortyfive.com · by ByStephen Silver · July 3, 2021

I think it is unknown to many people but marijuana grows wild in north Korea.  There are reports of US POWs gaining access to it.  

(Why some Korean War prisoners spent their captivity stoned out of their gourd - Prisoners would pick the plant while collecting firewood and then dry it over camp fires. 

What most do know is the north is very good at producing methamphetamines. 

 

7. Women’s Perspectives on a Peaceful Reunification of the Korean Peninsula — Women's Federation for World Peace USA

wfwp.us

Highlight from my good friend and HRNK colleague: “The second panelist from the US, Amanda Mortwedt Oh, a human rights attorney at The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, advocates for human rights issues alongside those who have escaped North Korea. She offered three recommendations and steps in order for the two countries to peacefully reunite. As a concept developed by Former Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki Moon, Ms. Oh advised to start with an upfront human rights approach and assessment process. This is to increase awareness about the facts and what is happening, and to encourage all parties to prioritize resolving human rights issues. In order to do this, human rights standards would need to be discussed and agreed upon, including how these standards would continue to be monitored. To further build trust, she shared examples of steps of good faith that could be arranged, such as allowing family reunions or releasing political prisoners. Finally, Ms. Oh emphasized the need for individuals to share their stories and experiences, to allow for justice, documentation, and accountability to take place. By setting up these practices and mutual agreements, long-term reconciliation and understanding can take place.

 

8. Hyundai to invest in U.S. battery startup SES: sources

en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · July 4, 2021

 

9. Kim Jong-un Reverses Economic Reforms and Fires Top Aides

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · July 3, 2021

I concur that a turn inward will only make problems worse.  But that is the paradox of north Korea.  It must reform and open up in order for the nation and the people to survive.  But reforming (real reforms and not the tepid and minor reforms the regime has so far allowed but is now cracking down on) and opening up is an existential threat to the Kim family regime.

As much as I often disagree with Mr. Bandow, this is an important point: “And that might be one reason Kim has so far indicated little interest in engaging the United States. He likely hopes to enhance his leverage in any negotiations, given the allied assumption that the DPRK is in desperate straits. He also might figure that in the short-term a deal would be of little value, since his government could not take advantage of the sanctions relaxation that he desires. Better to demonstrate the North’s steadfastness under pressure and wait until sanctions relief would take practical effect.

 

10. A great new Korean restaurant sets itself apart from the pack

Washington Post · by Tom Sietsema · July 2, 2021

For those in the DC area.  I will have to try this new one out.

 

------------

 

"We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness."

- Thomas Jefferson

 

"If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter."

- George Washington

 

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same."

- Ronald Reagan

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. RT Jumps Into Growing Fray Over "Critical Race Theory" In The US

2. Taiwan’s unity cracks under Chinese disinformation onslaught

3. Chinese Millennials Are ‘Chilling,’ and Beijing Isn’t Happy About It

4. The Intellectual Foundations of the Biden Revolution

5. Conspiracy theories are a mental health crisis

6. Saudi Prince Khalid bin Salman, Brother of Crown Prince, to Visit Washington

7. Opinion: Countering violence extremism is the magic bullet in war on terror

8. Cyber Threats and Vulnerabilities to Conventional and Strategic Deterrence

9. The political power of memes

10. College students — even Republicans — skeptical of crackdown on critical race theory

11. The U.S. Army and 2022 Budget | SOF News

12. Exclusive: Special Operators sound off about SOCOM's Armed Overwatch Program

13. The War on History Is a War on Democracy

14. Force Integration in Resistance Operations: Dutch Jedburghs and U.S. Alamo Scouts

 

1. RT Jumps Into Growing Fray Over "Critical Race Theory" In The US

global-influence-ops.com · by Editor

Of course RT is doing this. But it does not need to do much as both those for and against CRT are doing a great job of supporting Russian objectives.

 

2. Taiwan’s unity cracks under Chinese disinformation onslaught

Financial Times · by Kathrin Hille · June 29, 2021

Taiwan needs its own variation of this statement from our 2017 NSS:"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

 

3. Chinese Millennials Are ‘Chilling,’ and Beijing Isn’t Happy About It

The New York Times · by Elsie Chen · July 3, 2021

Sounds like some variations of Gene Sharp's nonviolent resistance techniques in "From Dictatorship to Democracy: A Conceptual Framework for Liberation."  Or maybe some new techniques to add to the list.

If I were supporting a nascent resistance I would provide two documents to the movement: Gene Sharp's work and the OSS Simple Sabotage Manual. Sounds like the millennials may be borrowing that manual as well.

 

4. The Intellectual Foundations of the Biden Revolution

Foreign Policy · by Daniel Deudney, G. John Ikenberry · July 2, 2021

Excerpts: “A key assumption of the Biden program is quintessentially Rooseveltian: The achievement of basic national interests requires making difficult domestic reforms in response to shifting global challenges. Just as the United States in World War II quickly and dramatically ramped up production, the Biden program recognizes that responding to climate change requires far-reaching domestic innovations. The mobilization to defeat the Axis powers and then the Soviet Union left no aspect of American life untouched and unchanged. So too, effectively responding to the climate crisis will remake America. If this reconstruction serves liberal democratic values, the United States will be made stronger and more capable—and more liberal and democratic.

Realities dictate that the United States must both compete effectively and cooperate extensively. The Biden administration’s program therefore recognizes that ramping up the capacity to compete with China must occur alongside efforts to cooperatively work with China to jointly address the climate emergency and the threat of pandemics. Due in large measure to the influence of U.S. liberals and internationalists, the United States not only competed with the Soviet Union but also cooperated with it on arms control and smallpox eradication. Rooseveltian internationalism, not minimalist realism or belligerent Trumpian nationalism, offers the playbook for a U.S. foreign policy that effectively competes with the Chinese but also cooperates with them on shared global problems.

In making sense of 21st-century realities and guiding U.S. grand strategy, modern liberalism and internationalism as first shaped during the Roosevelt era have the intellectual and programmatic resources that no other tradition of U.S. foreign policy can provide. Unlike those of his rivals, Biden’s worldview and program build on the successes of earlier Rooseveltian liberal and internationalist projects. As in the past, the success of the United States of America in the world—and the success of the free-world project—depend on the extension and implementation of a progressive liberal agenda.

 

5. Conspiracy theories are a mental health crisis

Mashable · June 27, 2021

Perhaps a public service announcement for all those who believe in the wild conspiracy theories that have become mainstream these days.

 

6. Saudi Prince Khalid bin Salman, Brother of Crown Prince, to Visit Washington

WSJ · by Vivian Salama and Stephen Kalin

I knew Khalid at Georgetown. Although he had an aide, he was a very down to earth guy (for a prince I guess) and was really looking forward to two years of studying for his master's degree. He started out as a student until halfway through the semester when he walked into my office and said he had to return to Saudi Arabia and had to withdraw from the program. Two weeks later he returned as the Ambassador to the U.S.

 

7. Opinion: Countering violence extremism is the magic bullet in war on terror

tuko.co.ke · by Naomi Wandede · June 30, 2021

A view from Kenya. But I do not think there are any magic bullets in CT or any other national security issue.

 

8. Cyber Threats and Vulnerabilities to Conventional and Strategic Deterrence

ndupress.ndu.edu · by Mark Montgomery and Erica Borghard

Excerpts: “Given the extraordinarily high consequence of a successful adversary cyber-enabled information operation against nuclear command and control decision making processes, DOD should consider developing a comprehensive training and educational requirement for relevant personnel to identify and report potential activity. DOD must additionally consider incorporating these considerations into preexisting table-top exercises and scenarios around nuclear force employment while incorporating lessons learned into future training.67 Implementing these recommendations would enhance existing DOD efforts and have a decisive impact on enhancing the security and resilience of the entire DOD enterprise and the critical weapons systems and functions that buttress U.S. deterrence and warfighting capabilities.

Much of the focus within academic and practitioner communities in the area of cyber deterrence has been on within-domain deterrence, and even studies of cross-domain deterrence have been largely concerned with the employment of noncyber instruments of power to deter cyberattacks. This has led to a critical gap in strategic thinking—namely, the cross-domain implications of cyber vulnerabilities and adversary cyber operations in day-to-day competition for deterrence and warfighting above the level of armed conflict. Failure to proactively and systematically address cyber threats and vulnerabilities to critical weapons systems, and to the DOD enterprise, has deleterious implications for the U.S. ability to deter war, or fight and win if deterrence fails. Implementing the Cyberspace Solarium Commission’s recommendations would go a long way toward restoring confidence in the security and resilience of the U.S. military capabilities that are the foundation of the Nation’s deterrent. 

 

9. The political power of memes

See the video here. 

A 1:51 minute video that provides a very useful discussion of the modern "psychological operations leaflet."

 

10. College students — even Republicans — skeptical of crackdown on critical race theory

Axios · by Neal Rothschild

The anti-CRT crowd will have a field day with these statistics. They will want to double down (which of course will only make it worse for their cause). And the pro-CRT crowd will likely misinterpret this as well and those who push extreme variations of CRT theory will also create blowback.

Both sides will blame this on effective indoctrination which must either continue or be countered depending on where you stand and sit.

But what about the ability of college students to think critically for themselves? Does anyone think they are not capable of doing so and therefore must be indoctrinated with one extreme ideology or another?

 

11. The U.S. Army and 2022 Budget | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · July 1, 2021

The SOF excerpt: “SOF. Representative Murphy (FL), a member of the House Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations, asked how the Army’s special operations forces (ARSOF) are adapting to and improving training for the refocus from CT/COIN to GPC. The Secretary response stressed that the shift from CT/COIN to GPC has been ongoing and continues. She said that ARSOF is still needed in a GPC environment and that training scenarios are changing to incorporate the changes outlined in the Irregular Warfare Annex to the National Defense Strategy. General McConville stated that SOF has done an incredible job the past 20 years. He stated that CT/COIN is not going away, however he said SOF is very agile and can perform both the CT/COIN missions as well as the future fight with near-peer adversaries. McConville stated that SOF is uniquely suited to working with allies and partners in the combatant regions they are aligned to – and that SOF will continue to help partners build their CT capability. The Secretary briefly discussed the ‘resistance capability‘ that US Special Forces can enhance in the Baltic nations.

 

12.  Exclusive: Special Operators sound off about SOCOM's Armed Overwatch Program

sandboxx.us · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · July 1, 2021

 

13. The War on History Is a War on Democracy

The New York Times · by Timothy Snyder · June 29, 2021

It will be interesting to see how divisive this article will be.

I too have a problem with banning ideas and thoughts regardless of how much I disagree with them. In that sense I am a strict Constitutionalist when it comes to the 1st Amendment and the entire Bill of Rights.

And it is our Amendment process that has allowed us to correct mistakes and keep us on the path to a more perfect union.

 

14. Force Integration in Resistance Operations: Dutch Jedburghs and U.S. Alamo Scouts

ndupress.ndu.edu · by  Kevin Stringer

Some weekend history reading.

 

-----------------

 

"I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do."

- Charlie Munger

 

"One of the most important reasons for studying history is that virtually every stupid idea that is in vogue today has been tried before and provides disastrous before, time and again".

- Thomas Sowell

 

"Age does not bring wisdom. Often it merely changes simple stupidity into arrogant conceit. Its only advantage, so far as I have been able to see, is that it spans change. A young person sees the world as a still picture, immutable. An old person has had his nose rubbed in changes and more changes and still more changes so many times that he knows it is a moving picture, forever changing. he may not like it – probably doesn't; I don't – but he knows it's so, and knowing it is the first step in coping with it." 

- Robert Heinlein - Time Enough for Love

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1.  U.S. committed to keeping appropriate troop level in S. Korea: Pentagon

2. Kim Jong Un’s Recent Weight Loss: A Medical Assessment

3. North Korean officials were 'schooled' at Politburo meeting, state media says

4. N. Korea resumes trading with China in more than a year

5.  N. Koreans overtake S. Koreans in TOEFL score in 2020: report

6.  UN agency upgrades Korea to developed economy

7. North Korea Shows No Vaccine Urgency, Despite New Virus Woes

8. What China Wants From North Korea

9. What Happens if Kim Jong-un Dies?

10. COVID crisis in North Korea: What do we know?

11. ‘Quiet warrior’ takes reins of US Forces Korea as Abrams ends 39-year Army career

 

1. U.S. committed to keeping appropriate troop level in S. Korea: Pentagon

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 3, 2021

Good news but we should not have to keep restating this. We need to continue demonstrating strategic reassurance and strategic resolve. And the Biden administration is showing a consistent commitment to our alliances.

That said, the operative word is "appropriate." We have to make necessary adjustments based on a wide range of factors. Troop levels never have been and never will be static. If there is a change that by no means will mean a reduced commitment.

 

2.  Kim Jong Un’s Recent Weight Loss: A Medical Assessment

38north.org · by Kenneth B. Dekleva · July 2, 2021

Yes, we all want to know the assessment of KJU's health. But still no definitive answers of course. And the concluding paragraph is important.

Excerpt: "Kim may have begun to appreciate that HIS longevity and health—not merely possessing nuclear weapons—is what ensures the survival of the DPRK and his legacy. In this sense, Kim’s weight loss may not be a bad thing. It also sends signals to the US and others that ­a healthier Kim will have more time to wait for the optimal conditions to negotiate. Presidents Joseph Biden, Xi, Moon and Putin should take note."

 

3. North Korean officials were 'schooled' at Politburo meeting, state media says

UPI  · by Elizabeth Shim · July 3, 2021

If the Propaganda and Agitation Department is reporting this in "state media" KJU must really want to reinforce these lessons and send a message not only to other elites but to the Korean people in the north.

 

4. N. Korea resumes trading with China in more than a year

donga.com · July 3, 2021

An important development. But will KJU allow the markets to return to "normal" (relatively) and function as markets? Will he lift the other draconian population control measures (communications, internal movement, use of foreign currency, etc)?

 

5. N. Koreans overtake S. Koreans in TOEFL score in 2020: report

en.yna.co.kr · by 유청모 · July 3, 2021

An interesting data point. But how should we interpret this? Are these really statistically significant differences?

 

6. UN agency upgrades Korea to developed economy

The Korea Times · July 3, 2021

I would have thought this would have come along sooner. But we should remember that South Korea is the first nation to go from a major aid recipient to a major donor nation that has the 10th largest economy in the world.

 

7. North Korea Shows No Vaccine Urgency, Despite New Virus Woes

voanews.com · William Gallo · July 3, 2021

Useful assessment here.

A key point (of many): “Another problem is North Korea’s severe lockdown, which has prevented virtually any foreigners from entering the country.

According to the source who spoke with VOA, North Korea is refusing to allow international aid workers into the country to help facilitate the shipment, ostensibly because of fears about outsiders bringing COVID-19 into the country.

However, Gavi procedures require that international staff must be present, the source said. Gavi “won’t just ship it,” the source said.

United Nations agencies’ employees, who might have been able to help with the vaccine shipment, have left North Korea amid worsening lockdown conditions.

 

8. What China Wants From North Korea

The National Interest · by Andrei Lankov · July 2, 2021

Three "no's" - No war - no instability and regime collapse, and no nukes. (except for nukes) Simply maintain the status quo indefinitely (and it can live with the nukes as long as there is no war or instability.)

And north Korea will be a spoiler in great power competition.

Excerpt: "For the time being, however, we should reconcile ourselves with the idea that China will be quietly sabotaging sanctions, and, while talking much about the grave need for a negotiated solution, will not be in a hurry to forge some mutually acceptable deal."

 

9. What Happens if Kim Jong-un Dies?

The National Interest · by Eli Fuhrman · July 2, 2021

Or more precisely, what would we do if today we learned that Kim Jong-un had died?

 

10. COVID crisis in North Korea: What do we know?

DW · · July 2, 2021

Excerpts: “For the last 18 months, Pyongyang has consistently insisted that no cases of the virus were detected within its borders and that drastic preventive measures — including sealing the nation's borders — have proved effective in keeping the coronavirus at bay.

That has been virtually impossible to confirm, particularly since there are no longer any international aid or public health organizations in the country.

Experts say, however, it is extremely unlikely that the North has escaped completely unscathed; particularly given its geographical location bordering China, the original source of the outbreak, and its previous heavy reliance on China for both exports and imports.

 

11. ‘Quiet warrior’ takes reins of US Forces Korea as Abrams ends 39-year Army career

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · July 2, 2021

 

--------------

 

"I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do."

- Charlie Munger

 

"One of the most important reasons for studying history is that virtually every stupid idea that is in vogue today has been tried before and provides disastrous before, time and again".

- Thomas Sowell

 

"Age does not bring wisdom. Often it merely changes simple stupidity into arrogant conceit. Its only advantage, so far as I have been able to see, is that it spans change. A young person sees the world as a still picture, immutable. An old person has had his nose rubbed in changes and more changes and still more changes so many times that he knows it is a moving picture, forever changing. he may not like it – probably doesn't; I don't – but he knows it's so, and knowing it is the first step in coping with it." 

- Robert Heinlein - Time Enough for Love

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. U.S. shortlists N. Korea among worst nations in trafficking of humans

2.  New HRNK Report Highlights The UN Role In Promoting And Protecting Human Rights In The DPRK

3. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Publicly Blames Senior Officials for COVID-19 Failures

4. Kim Jong-un signal for help could mark a turning point in North Korea’s Covid fight

5. Is North Korea At Its Breaking Point? Not Yet.

6. Reports of people ‘starving’ as N Korea struggles to feed itself

7. Kim Jong Un rediscovers his love of central planning

8. Gen. LaCamera takes office as new U.S. Forces Korea chief

9. Unification ministry says it does not know about Moon-Kim letter exchanges

10. N. Korea's No. 2 leader keeps his seat in recent reshuffle, holds key party meeting

11. Eighth Army issues mask mandate as US Forces Korea works to stamp out coronavirus clusters

12. Can China Help Create Strategic Stability on the Korean Peninsula?

13. North Korea's young generation becomes headache for Kim Jong-un

14. South Korea's Moon and North's Kim exchanged letters ahead of Biden summit: Newspaper

15. Gen. Paul LaCamera takes over as leader of U.S. Forces Korea

16. U.S. awaits constructive response from Pyongyang for dialogue: State Dept.

17. New US general stresses team spirit amid disputes

18. North Korea creates new "social order disciplinary units" to squash "non-socialist behavior"

19. North Korean leadership faults military for causing "grave incident"

 

1. U.S. shortlists N. Korea among worst nations in trafficking of humans

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 2, 2021

One of the many tragedies and atrocities of the Kim family regime. Just ask the many escapees who have suffered at the hands of the regime. And of course China is complicit in human rights abuses of Koreans. China could reduce trafficking by providing Koreans who cross the border with refugee status and giving them the necessary protection until they can travel to South Korea.

This is one of the many reasons why we need to take a human rights up front. It is important that the new Korea policy of the Biden administration will include human rights.

 

2. New HRNK Report Highlights The UN Role In Promoting And Protecting Human Rights In The DPRK

hrnk.org · June 30, 2021

The 120 page report can be downloaded here: 

Excerpt: “According to author David Hawk, “this monograph carefully details the history of North Korea's interaction with the United Nations, particularly the changes in the DPRK's stance toward human rights following the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry Report, after which North Korea became much more tactically open and engaged regarding the human rights of its citizens.” Hawk further adds: “As endorsed by the General Assembly, the UN proffers a two-track approach to North Korea: accountability and engagement. Presently both approaches are stymied. But if conditions possibly improve, the steps that North Korea and its interlocuters -- governmental, inter-governmental and non-governmental -- should take are clearly outlined by the UN processes detailed in this HRNK account.”

 

3. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Publicly Blames Senior Officials for COVID-19 Failures

rfa.org · by Jieun Kim, Yongjae Mok and Soyoung Kim

But he accepts no responsibility himself. He exercises such central control over everything that there can be no one else to blame.

It is a significant decision to close schools for the remainder of the year. However, the regime may be using COVID as an excuse to employ even greater numbers of child laborers for regime "projects."

 

4. Kim Jong-un signal for help could mark a turning point in North Korea’s Covid fight

The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · July 1, 2021

My guess (and it is only a guess and not even an estimate or assessment) is that we are still a long way from Kim asking for or accepting outside help. Kim fears the Korean people in the north more than COVID and more than the US. I think he will milk the COVID situation to continue to crack down on (what he defines as) corruption, increase oppression of the wavering and hostile classes, and double down on centralized control of the economy, currency, internal movement, communications, and information. 

Then again, he could be laying the groundwork to make a huge demand for outside assistance. It is possible that he might play on the heartstrings of the international community and try to manipulate conditions to get sanctions relief in the name of helping the Korean people. We should never forget that the reason the people are suffering is not sanctions but the deliberate policy decisions of Kim himself. Sanctions relief will not help the people who need help. If sanctions relief is provided we must expect Kim to renew his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.

 

5. Is North Korea At Its Breaking Point? Not Yet.

The National Interest · by Laura Rockwood, Jaewoo Shin, and Matthew Frank · July 1,

Yes, that is probably correct. Not yet. Although I push hard that we must be observing for indicators, they will be hard to observe and decipher. But things could continue to look stable and then rapidly deteriorate if the conditions of regime collapse occur. Therefore, we must be ready.

Quote from "Should The United States Support for Korean Unification And If So, How?"

Regime collapse is defined as the loss of central governing effectiveness of the regime, combined with the loss of support and coherency of the military and security services. Although bottom-up internal resistance could lead to regime collapse, the regime’s demise is more likely to result from its inability to support the military and security services. Regime collapse is a result of friction within the regime elite and “deprioritization” of key military units. Regime collapse would likely lead to internal conflict, as actors fight to retain power and resources. In the worst case, when faced with significant internal or external pressure and the threat of regime collapse, Kim Jong-un might make the decision to execute his campaign plan to reunify the peninsula under his control, thus ensuring survival of his family’s regime (in his calculus). However, if collapse occurs without a direct attack on the ROK, the ROK–U.S. alliance, the UN Command, or both (and possibly also China) will likely have to conduct stabilization operations in the North to prevent spillover, establish security, restore stability, and relieve humanitarian suffering. Again, once the security situation is stabilized there could be a return to the ideal path to reunification. All of the planning and preparation that has taken place would still have value and could still be applied. Furthermore, many of the preparations could help mitigate the negative effects of regime collapse. (page 144-145, http://icks.org/n/data/ijks/1482467285_add_file_7.pdf)

Here are two graphics (that Bob Collins I developed in the 1990s and which I have shared before) that provide some possible instability, conflict, and collapse scenarios and the implosion-explosion paradox.

 

 

6.  Reports of people ‘starving’ as N Korea struggles to feed itself

Al Jazeera English · by Frank Smith

Sanctions are not crippling. Kim Jong-un's policies are crippling.

 

7.  Kim Jong Un rediscovers his love of central planning

The Economist · July 3, 2021

The Economist gets it. Why is no one else proving this kind of reporting? This succinct article explains the emergence from the Arduous March, the rise of the graymarkets to the growth of the moneyed class to the current crackdown on market activity using COVID as the excuse from the imposition of draconian population and resources control measures. Why? To ensure Kim remains in control and in power.

Excerpt: “In theory, the dire situation should provide an opening for re-engagement with the outside world. South Korea has repeatedly offered to send food aid and, more recently, vaccines. Sung Kim, America’s special envoy for North Korea, said during a visit to Seoul in June that he is willing to meet his counterpart “anywhere, anytime, without preconditions”. North Korea has publicly rebuffed all overtures. Mr Kim’s slightly less corpulent appearance suggests not so much a sense of crisis as that, as always, he is looking after himself.

 

8. Gen. LaCamera takes office as new U.S. Forces Korea chief

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 2, 2021

A very nice ceremony. Thank you to USFK PAO for streaming it live on social media so we could watch it virtually last evening.

 

9. Unification ministry says it does not know about Moon-Kim letter exchanges

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 2, 2021

I hope north and South can start zooming.

Excerpt: “Cha, however, added that South Korea is equipped to hold an inter-Korean virtual summit anytime as it has completed setting up a conference room specifically designed to hold negotiations with the North via a video system in April.”

 

10. N. Korea's No. 2 leader keeps his seat in recent reshuffle, holds key party meeting

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 2, 2021

We are starting to see how things are sorting out. But the most dangerous position to be in is the one people designate as number 2.

Excerpt: “The latest meeting further raises the possibility that Ri Pyong-chol, vice chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party, has been dismissed.

Video footage aired earlier on Korean Central Television showed officials at the politburo meeting voting on personnel issues, with the exception of Ri and Pak Jong-chon, chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army.

Ri and Pak did not raise their hands up to vote, in an indication that the top two military officers have been dismissed.

So how is control of the military? Is Kim maintaining its support? Is the military and its three chains of control still coherent and intact?

 

11. Eighth Army issues mask mandate as US Forces Korea works to stamp out coronavirus clusters

Stars and Stripes · by Matthew M. Burke · July 1, 2021

The question I have is were these personnel vaccinated or are they part of the 20% still as yet unvaccinated?

Excerpts: “The command reported 10 new cases of the coronavirus respiratory disease on Wednesday evening. The new patients — nine service members and one family member — tested positive between Saturday and Tuesday, a statement said.

Four service members at Casey, one at Camp Carroll, and a dependent of a service member stationed at K-16 in Seoul tested positive after coming into close contact with positive individuals, the statement said.

One service member stationed at Humphreys, one at Casey and another at K-16 tested positive Monday and Tuesday after developing COVID-19 symptoms, according to the statement. Another service member assigned to Casey tested positive on Tuesday prior to returning to the United States.

USFK also announced in the statement that approximately 80% of its community has been vaccinated, and less than 1% of its active-duty force is infected with COVID-19.

 

12. Can China Help Create Strategic Stability on the Korean Peninsula?

The National Interest · by Timo Kivimäki · July 1, 2021

Perhaps it can use the Chinese calculus but it probably will not suit US and ROK/US alliance interests.

 

13. North Korea's young generation becomes headache for Kim Jong-un

The Korea Times · by Yoon Ja-young · July 2, 2021

He can't handle the youth! Too Much exposure to foreign culture. Just imagine if we made a concerted effort to conduct a comprehensive information and influence campaign.

Excerpts: “Kim said in April that the culture of the young people is a critical problem that cannot be overlooked anymore as the fate of the party, revolution, country and its people are at stake. He ordered an inspection of young people's fashion, hairstyles, and the way they talk and behave.

However, Seo said it is doubtful whether this will work.

"The regime is working hard to prevent their ideological deviation as well as enhancing their loyalty to the regime. However, it is out of touch with reality. Young people aren't accepting those schemes as their parents did in the past."

Park noted in a report that famine is not what the regime fears.

"For at least the next five years, there won't be massive famine or death from starvation as seen in mid 1990s unless there is a series of massive natural disasters. It's because those who have grown up with the market economy in North Korea are now equipped with mechanisms for survival," she said.

"What the Kim Jong-un regime fears most is deviation among its people who have tasted money and freedom. It's time to note what survival strategies the North Korean people take against the regime's reign of terror."

 

14.  South Korea's Moon and North's Kim exchanged letters ahead of Biden summit: Newspaper

channelnewsasia.com

Circular reporting but without the Unification Ministry saying it has no knowledge of this. If letters were exchanged they probably went through intelligence channels versus through the Unification Ministry. Maybe the MOU was cut out of the loop on this, if it occurred at all.

 

15. Gen. Paul LaCamera takes over as leader of U.S. Forces Korea

UPI · by Thomas Maresca · July 2, 2021

And the United Nations Command and the ROK//US Combined Forces Command and as the Senior US Military Officer in Korea (and a member of the Military Committee) (he wears 4 hats)

It was interesting to watch during the ceremony as each commander and the Command Sergeant Major changed patches for each passing of the colors. When I was in the ROK/US CFC (and UNC and USFK) we did not wear any patches. As I recall those assigned solely to USFK wore a USFK patch and those of us assigned to multiple commands did not wear any patches. Of course back then we did not have Velcro patches either making it easy to exchange them during the ceremony. It would have been pretty time consuming to have to sew on a new one for each passing of the colors.

 

16. U.S. awaits constructive response from Pyongyang for dialogue: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 2, 2021

Yes, the operative word is constructive. That would mean Kim has decided to act as a responsible member of the international community.

 

17. New US general stresses team spirit amid disputes

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · July 2, 2021

Interesting title. I did a double take and thought I missed something in General LaCamera's speech. Did he call for a renewal of the Team Spirit exercise? No he did not. The Korean Herald headline editor decided on that title.

Good words here: “We learn from each other, we create combat readiness together and more importantly, we build trust together,” LaCamera said.

 

18. North Korea creates new "social order disciplinary units" to squash "non-socialist behavior"

dailynk.com · July 2, 2021

So would this be  a new "gestapo like" organization?

Again, who does Kim Jong-un fear more: the US or the Korean people living in the north?

 

19. North Korean leadership faults military for causing "grave incident"

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · July 2, 2021

Now this is significant. Kim only remains in power with the support of the military. Did the military have an outbreak? I think I recall the reports of 200 or more soldiers quarantined last year for respiratory ailments.

 

-------------

 

“When God puts his hands on a man, I take my hands off."

- Sen Thomas Hart Benton (1782-1858)

 

"We got a mountain to move." 

- General Paul J. LaCamera, UNC/CFC/USFK Commander, 2 July 2021, Change of Command

 

"Paymasters come in only two sizes:one sort shows you where the book says that you can't have what you've got coming to yo; he second sort digs through the book until he finds a paragraph that lets you have what you need even if you don't rate it."

- Robert Heinlein - The Door into Summer

 

I recommend a new custom for UNC/CFC/USFK. When two military personnel meet and salute, the first will say "Katchi Kapshida" and the response will be "We got a mountain to move." (derived from the Korean adage about all working together can move a mountain - General Abrams used this adage in his speech and General LaCamera concluded his speech with "we got a mountain to move."). 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

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19. Is the military teaching critical race theory? Not really

20. AllStances™: Critical Race Theory: Perspectives, Pro Con, Arguments, For And Against, Critical Race Theory, CRT, Race And Racism, Racism, Anti-Racism, Race

21. Japanese official warns US of potential surprise attack on Hawaii — from Russia and China

22. U.S. Leaves Largest Afghan Base as Full Withdrawal Nears

23. Satellite Photos Show China Expanding Its Mysterious Desert Airfield

24. Opinion | The Chinese Communist Party’s anniversary is Hong Kong’s funeral

25. Back to the Future: Resetting Special Operations Forces for Great Power Competition

 

1. Full text of Xi Jinping's speech on the CCP's 100th anniversary

asia.nikkei.com

 

2. IMF: United States of America Concluding Statement of the 2021 Article IV Mission

IMF · July 1, 2021

Some very interesting data and analysis. 

 

3. Remembering My Boss, Donald Rumsfeld

Daily Signal · by Steven Bucci

There is a lot of negative commentary with the passing of Secretary Rumsfeld. Here is a different perspective. I never met the man so I cannot judge.

Conclusion: “The bottom line is this: Reasonable people can disagree about the policy choices made by the George W. Bush administration in general, and by Rumsfeld in particular, but this man, forever known to me as simply The Boss, was a man of integrity, character, leadership, and real grit. Time does not allow for a full obit here; I will leave that to others. The man I knew, the man who shepherded the American military through the 9/11 attacks, the man dubbed the American Secretary of War for his strength and service to our nation, will never be forgotten.

He was the embodiment of the “Man in the Arena” to whom President Teddy Roosevelt referred in his famous remarks at the Sorbonne in 1910. He lived, fought, and passed with a quiet power that his critics cannot match.

Rest in peace, Boss. It was an honor to serve beside you.

 

4. How Rumsfeld Deserves to Be Remembered

The Atlantic · by George Packer · July 1, 2021

And another perspective on Secretary Rumsfeld.

Conclusion: “By the time Rumsfeld was fired, in November 2006, the U.S., instead of securing peace in one country, was losing wars in two, largely because of actions and decisions taken by Rumsfeld himself. As soon as he was gone, the disaster in Iraq began to turn around, at least briefly, with a surge of 30,000 troops, a policy change that Rumsfeld had adamantly opposed. But it was too late. Perhaps it was too late by the early afternoon of September 11.

Rumsfeld had intelligence, wit, dash, and endless faith in himself. Unlike McNamara, he never expressed a quiver of regret. He must have died in the secure knowledge that he had been right all along.

 

5. Naval Special Warfare Completes Transformative Leader Assessment Program Pilots

dvidshub.net

This looks like a good program.  

Excerpts: “We place emphasis on superior leadership as our principal asymmetric advantage over the nation’s adversaries and embrace the mission imperative to evolve the ways we assess the character, cognitive and leadership attributes within the force,” said Rear Adm. H. W. Howard III, commander, Naval Special Warfare Command. “We recently accelerated the development of the NLAP pilot to rapidly experiment with an approach that increases officer and enlisted selection precision, development opportunities, and leader pairing decisions – and addresses cognitive biases that can adversely impact selection decisions.”

This round of NLAP pilots consisted of four separate convenings with two in Little Creek, Virginia and two in Coronado. Naval Special Warfare Center, which has been charged with running the assessment program, screened over 90 participants eligible for either executive officer or command master chief positions. In the future, the four-day process held on the premises will apply to all levels of leadership from major command to O-5 command as well as tactical level commanders and senior enlisted advisors.

 

6. Lawmaker Wants to Grill Officers on Critical Race Theory Before Approving Promotions

defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher

Sigh....I have a lot more faith in all our military personnel - from General/Admiral to Private/Airman/Seaman. I am not at all afraid of them being exposed to all ideas and theories. If we are afraid that they are going to be indoctrinated by the "wrong" ideas then we certainly do not respect their intellectual abilities or trust them as fellow Americans. This line of reasoning says we basically do not trust our military personnel to think critically and objectively 9f they do not think along the ideas that are "approved.") If Senator Cotton wants to go back to the old way and focus on our oath, ideals, and Constitution then he should start with the ideal that we do not ban ideas just because they do comport with someone's worldview.

By including this type of training, Cotton said, military schools are becoming too similar to civilian graduate schools.

“Every minute they dedicate to some critical race theory primer could have been...better dedicated to...studying Chinese military doctrine, things that we actually expect and need our military to know,” Cotton said.

Cotton, who served in Iraq as an Army infantry officer, argued that equality training should go back to how it was when he was in uniform.

“Most of my buddies who contact me feel they just want to know why we can’t just go back to what we all took an oath to, our founding principles...or for that matter why these training sessions can’t just replay Martin Luther King’s dream speech that we should all be judged by the content of our character, not the color of our skin?”

 

7. ‘Black Hawk Down’ Veterans to Receive 58 Silver Stars

defenseone.com · by Caitlin M. Kenney

That seems to be a very high number of Silver Stars but I have no doubt each one is deserved.

 

8. IntelBrief: The Role of Local Police in the New U.S Strategy on Countering Domestic Terrorism

thesoufancenter.org · June 29, 2021

Excerpt: “Further compounding this challenge is the reality that there exists within American policing the same domestic threat that this new national strategy seeks to address: armed white supremacists misusing patriotic trappings, and groups such as the Three Percenters or the Oath Keepers. Discussing this issue openly and honestly remains arduous. Making matters more difficult, local police departments are always struggling with staffing issues to manage the staggering level of 911 emergency calls for services (most of which are not crime-related, but that still require a police response). Some departments will argue that the strategy is simply adding another priority to an overloaded list. However, it can be argued that the more positive progress is made on the non-law enforcement side of the National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism, the less need there will be for law enforcement action. Until such progress is made, a significant need for local law enforcement involvement remains; many of the threat groups and actors are well-armed and present a real security threat. Moreover, building strong relationships with communities based on trust will be a critical component in ensuring that local law enforcement is well positioned to work closely with communities, local business, and federal partners. There is nothing easy or simple about countering this domestic threat; the task is as complicated as it is urgent.

 

9. Terrorists become increasingly ‘innovative’, in a world shaken by COVID-19

news.un.org · June 30, 2021

2+ minute video at the link. 

Conclusion: “As the Organization readies itself to mark the 15th anniversary of the UN Global Counter-terrorism Strategy to enhance national, regional and international efforts, the UN official said, “we should take comfort that this Counter-Terrorism Week has reinvigorated support for multilateralism”.

He described some “path-breaking” outcomes to be included in an upcoming resolution, which included countering the use of new technologies for terrorist purposes; tackling attacks based on racism and other forms of intolerance; and repatriating, reintegrating and rehabilitating children with links to foreign terrorist fighters.

In closing, Mr. Voronkov reassured the Member States of the UN’s “leadership and to support” and looked forward to the first Global Congress of Victims of Terrorism scheduled for December, and for the third UN Counter-Terrorism Week in June 2023.

 

10. Release of the 2021 Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Report

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken

The 43 page USG Women, Peace, and Security Congressional report report can be downloaded here.

 

11. The Free World vs. China and Friends: It’s ideology, stupid

atlanticcouncil.org · by Kaush Arha · July 1, 2021

My graphic on the ideological conflict.

Excerpts: “It is important that this war of ideas be framed as a clash between the founding principles of the US government and the CCP—not their citizens. American and Chinese people have enjoyed a long and rich history of mutual benefit and respect, and that should endure. US ideals and security enabled China’s rise to be its global rival. But the goals of Xi and the CCP do not tolerate—let alone enable—any competition. That is the crux of the ideological war.

It is in the realm of ideology where China is most brittle and vulnerable—and the United States strongest and most resilient. By its own admission, in fact, the greatest threat to the Chinese Communist Party is ideology. The CCP abhors chaos and does all it can to erase it, while the resilient character of democracy shines in chaos. The democratic institutions of the Free World have been tested fiercely and found resilient. The last US president was impeached twice in one term and voted out of office. And on January 6, in the face of a rowdy mob, US legislators returned to the Capitol in the middle of the night to certify the election. In the battle of ideas, the United States is stronger because it leads by the will of the people against the state coercion of China.

The best ideological antidote to “socialism with Chinese characteristics” is democracies with Asian characteristics. It is the marvel of Indian democracy, the resolve of Taiwan, the strength of Japan and South Korea, the soundness of Australia and New Zealand, and the aspirations of movements and leaders in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Central Asia. And an expanded G10 gives new voice to these Asian democracies. There are no greater soldiers of democracy than the brave students of Tiananmen Square and Hong Kong, who were inspired by US ideals. To be worthy of their inspiration and its own founding principles, the United States should stand tall as democracy’s guardian.

 

12. The People We’re Leaving Behind in Afghanistan

The New Yorker · by Condé Nast · June 29, 2021

The human domain.  

Excerpts: “President Biden has now pledged a large package of security assistance and humanitarian aid to the Kabul government. But recent Taliban advances, spreading fear, and deteriorating security forecasts have touched off what looks like a downward spiral, in which vital noncombat American support on the ground, such as contractors who maintain Afghan aircraft, will pull out alongside U.S. soldiers. Last week in Washington, Ghani said that his job now is to “manage the consequences” of the U.S. withdrawal—a technocrat’s description of an existential struggle that seems, for now, to be running against him.

Akbar told me that she is not “anti-withdrawal; I’m all for it,” but that the way the Biden Administration announced its decision—linking it to the anniversary of September 11th, for example—showed “very little consideration about the impact on a very fragile peace process” and on the Afghan population. Her greatest fear is “all-out war,” such as that which engulfed the country during the nineteen-nineties, a conflict laced with mass killings, rape, and other atrocities.

“There’s little reflection on failures and America’s role in these failures,” Akbar said. “That’s frustrating to watch. We are being left with a huge mess. We are being told to deal with it mostly on our own. Of course, it’s our responsibility. It’s our country. But it’s not a mess we created on our own.”

 

13.  Iranian Disinformation Effort Went Small to Stay Under Big Tech’s Radar

The New York Times · by Sheera Frenkel · June 30, 2021

Excerpts: “U.S. intelligence agencies are concerned that the same could be happening in the United States. Last week, the Justice Department said it was blocking access to three dozen websites linked to disinformation efforts by Iran. A U.S. intelligence official told The Times that the authorities were closely monitoring messaging groups on Telegram, WhatsApp and other apps for Iranian disinformation.

The apps are an ideal means for Iran to enter a closed group of people with similar viewpoints and spread divisive and extremist messages, said the intelligence official, who was not authorized to give interviews and spoke on the condition of anonymity. They were sharing memes, for example, that likened Mr. Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler — an offensive comparison that could prod some people into more extreme views and make others think their online groups had become too extreme.

“In these closed messaging groups, people tend to trust one another and share more freely because there is a feeling that they share the same politics, and that the app itself is secure and safe,” said Gonen Ben Itzhak, an Israeli lawyer who once worked for Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence agency. He was among dozens of Israelis who said the Iranian efforts had targeted them.

The people who unknowingly communicated with the Iranians said the pandemic and upheaval in Israeli politics had made them especially vulnerable to the disinformation.

 

14. Biden’s lack of ambassador picks leaves him on a pace that’s trailing Trump

pennlive.com · by Tribune News Service · July 2, 2021

Excerpts: “It’s too slow,” said Eric Rubin, president of the American Foreign Service Association, the diplomatic corps’ union. “It’s true that every administration has challenges, but this is the administration that comes after Trump, and there’s really an urgency in terms of undoing damage that was done.”

Measured by ambassadors who have been nominated to individual countries, not institutions such as NATO or United Nations bodies, Biden trails Trump at this point in his presidency, according to the Partnership for Public Service, which tracks such appointments. As of June 30 in their administrations, former President Barack Obama had nominated 40 ambassadors, Bill Clinton 26 and Trump 19. Biden has nominated just 14.

Biden’s team argues that Trump left him in an impossible position, for many reasons: Trump’s refusal to concede the election and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol slowed the transition, as did turmoil from the coronavirus response. He has put more emphasis on diversity than speed — leading all presidents in the number of female nominees of color as of his first 100 days, for example.

The White House and State Department declined to comment. But officials familiar with the administration’s thinking say that in this era of hyper-partisanship in Washington, Biden wants to make sure his nominees face no uncomfortable surprises in their nomination hearings.

 

15. Worried about ‘wokeness’? There’s a lot more to be outraged about in the US military

taskandpurpose.com · by Paul Szoldra, James Clark, Jeff Schogol, and Haley Britzky · June 30, 2021

Quite a laundry list of challenges within our military beyond the false crisis of wokeness.

Conclusion: “While members of Congress — and the army of talk show hosts and social media personalities filling up the airways and your newsfeed — are well within their rights to pound their desks over what books people may or may not be reading, or opine at length about the changes individual military branches are making to be more inclusive, the real question is: Is any of that worth your time, and outrage, compared to all of the above?

Perhaps we should refocus our collective attention on trying to tackle the real and tangible problems that are destroying careers, ruining troops’ lives and, in many cases, actually impeding the military’s ability to fight effectively.

 

16. Will America Defend Taiwan? Here’s What History Says

hoover.org · by Ian Easton · June 30, 2021

Excerpts: “To date, there is no known case in which an American president failed to send forces to support the defense of Taiwan in response to a credible CCP threat. If this track record is indicative of future performance, the years ahead are likely to see the U.S. government continually improve its operational readiness to defend Taiwan in accordance with the evolving threat picture. In times of crisis, American leaders will likely send overwhelming national resources to the Taiwan Strait area and make their commitments to Taiwan’s defense more explicit in hopes of convincing the PRC to deescalate tensions.

Even barring a major political-military crisis, it seems probable that the years ahead will see the U.S. government improve its early-warning intelligence via regular ship, submarine, and aircraft patrols of the Taiwan Strait; more frequent overhead passes of space and near-space platforms; and expanded intelligence sharing arrangements with the Taiwanese security services. It also seems probable that the U.S. will make significant enhancements to its diplomatic, trade, intelligence, and military presence in Taiwan.

It remains an open question whether a Taiwan Patrol Force and MAAG-like organization will be reestablished—let alone an official country-to-country relationship and defensive alliance. But each could be considered past examples of political and military initiatives that, when combined, were successful in helping to deter CCP aggression. Herein we might find positive lessons for the future.

 

17. What Terrorism Will Look Like in the Near Future

newlinesinstitute.org · by Colin Clarke · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “The United States has been attempting to pivot away from counterterrorism as an organizing principle as it prepares to meet the challenges of great-power competition. But counterterrorism and great-power competition are not mutually exclusive. Indeed, in many cases, a convergence between the two will further complicate the response and may also lead to an increase in state-sponsored terrorism, a throwback to the proxy conflicts waged during the Cold War.

To head off violent ideologies or support for terrorist groups before they metastasize, and to formulate adequate prevention policies, the United States should heed the lessons observed from local contexts in foreign states. Chief among these lessons is taking note of early indications and warnings of racism, sectarianism, or other forms of discrimination against specific societal groups. Issues like salad bar ideologies do not comport with neat analytic frameworks. Concepts like fringe fluidity mean that it is entirely possible, and increasingly more common, for violent extremists to reconcile aspects of two competing ideologies, like neo-Nazism and militant Islamism.

For counterterrorism analysts, it is crucial to step outside of analytic comfort zones. This requires questioning long-held assumptions and avoiding groupthink that too often plagues intelligence community assessments. Of course, this requires deep knowledge of how terrorist groups train, recruit, and operate. But it also requires intellectual curiosity, an understanding that ideology can be malleable, and the ability to identify trend lines before they become fault lines.

 

18. US-UK Warn Of New Worldwide Russian Cyberespionage

breakingdefense.com · by Brad D. Williams · July 1, 2021

Excerpts: “The advisory notes that the threat actors are using encrypted traffic via the Tor network and virtual private networks (VPNs) to conceal activities, including data exfiltration. They are also using techniques to “live off the land,” a term that means malicious actors use legitimate tools that don’t alert security experts to conceal activities on a victim’s network.

The advisory then provides some mitigation guidance — most of which Breaking Defense readers know: Use strong account passwords, enable multifactor authentication wherever possible, apply access controls to include account time-out/lock-out, patch software, and implement zero-trust security principles as broadly as possible across networks.

 

19. Is the military teaching critical race theory? Not really

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers, Leo Shane III · July 1, 2021

I did not think so.

 

20. AllStances™: Critical Race Theory: Perspectives, Pro Con, Arguments, For And Against, Critical Race Theory, CRT, Race And Racism, Racism, Anti-Racism, Race

Allsides · March 16, 2021

Probably, the most balanced discussion of critical race theory I have read. But we should expect that from the AllSides website.

 

21. Japanese official warns US of potential surprise attack on Hawaii — from Russia and China

Washington Examiner · June 30, 2021

There would appear to be some irony in this headline.

 

22. U.S. Leaves Largest Afghan Base as Full Withdrawal Nears

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · July 2, 2021

 

23. Satellite Photos Show China Expanding Its Mysterious Desert Airfield

NPR · by Geoff Brumfiel · July 1, 2021

A Chinese "Area 51?"

 

24. Opinion | The Chinese Communist Party’s anniversary is Hong Kong’s funeral

The Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · July 1, 2021

Is Taiwan next?

Excerpts: “What we should learn from Hong Kong is that Xi Jinping does exactly what he says he will do,” said Dan Blumenthal, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “He succeeded in Hong Kong with impunity and he’s talking the same way about Taiwan now. We ought to take him seriously.”

...

 

The lesson of the last century was that appeasing aggressive, repressive, expansionist, nationalist, totalitarian dictatorships is more dangerous than confronting them. This July 1 is a stark reminder that we should believe Xi Jinping when he threatens to attack and undermine freedom and democracy — and then we must do more to push back, in Hong Kong, in Taiwan and in our own country.

 

25. Back to the Future: Resetting Special Operations Forces for Great Power Competition

mwi.usma.edu · by Kyle Atwell · July 2, 2021

The 47 minute podcast can be accessed here. 

I have not listened to it yet but I will later today.

 

-----------------

 

"When God puts his hands on a man, I take my hands off."

- Sen Thomas Hart Benton (1782-1858)

 

"We got a mountain to move." 

- General Paul J. LaCamera, UNC/CFC/USFK Commander, 2 July 2021, Change of Command

 

"Paymasters come in only two sizes:one sort shows you where the book says that you can't have what you've got coming to yo; he second sort digs through the book until he finds a paragraph that lets you have what you need even if you don't rate it."

- Robert Heinlein - The Door into Summer

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Lavrov To The West: Your Hegemony Is Over, Your Rules Don't Apply

2.  China, Russia and the Strategy of Indirection

3. Xi vows to crush meddling forces and Taiwan independence attempts

4. “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan

5. How great powers should compete

6. Russia-China tag team could end US space supremacy

7. Hugging the Old Bear: Updating The American Playbook for the Long Game

8. When Does a ‘Cyber Attack’ Demand Retaliation? NATO Broadens Its View

9. 'The Future Is About Information Dominance:' Gen. Nakasone

10. ‘Heads bashed bloody’: China’s Xi marks Communist Party centenary with strong words for adversaries

11. Great Power Competition Requires Theater Deterrence

12. Rules-based order: What’s in a name?

13. Analysis: Kim's reshuffles serve to keep North Korea elite in line as crises mount

14. WHO "not aware' of North Korea COVID-19 "great crisis," China offers help

15. House lawmakers seek to slash military personnel funding by $488 million from Biden’s defense budget proposal

16. A privately funded National Guard deployment is legal, but is it ethical?

17.  America’s misplayed debt diplomacy in Cambodia

18. Large Majorities Say China Does Not Respect the Personal Freedoms of Its People

19. Meet The MC-145B Wily Coyote Armed Special Ops Transport Plane

20. House Panel Proposes $1M to Start Renaming Bases That Honor Confederates

21. Naval Special Warfare in a 'Race for Relevancy' as Mission Shifts to High-end Conflict

 

1. Lavrov To The West: Your Hegemony Is Over, Your Rules Don't Apply

worldcrunch.com · by Anna Akage

Something upbeat to start the day (not!)

Conclusion: “’I will stress once again what President Vladimir Putin has said many times: there were no unilateral concessions at the end of the 1990s, and there never will be any. If you want to cooperate and regain your lost profits and your business reputation, you should negotiate with each other in order to find fair solutions and compromises.

This world view is firmly rooted in the minds of the Russian people.

It is fundamentally important for the West to understand that this world view is firmly rooted in the minds of the Russian people and reflects the views of the overwhelming majority of Russian citizens. Those irreconcilable opponents of the Russian authorities, on whom the West relies and who see all of Russia's problems in anti-Westernism, demanding unilateral concessions in order to lift sanctions and obtain some hypothetical material benefits, represent an absolutely marginal segment of our society. At the June 16 press conference in Geneva, Vladimir Putin clearly explained what the West's support of such marginal circles is aimed at.

They are going against the historical continuity of a people that has always, especially in difficult times, been known for its maturity, sense of self-respect, dignity and national pride, ability to think independently while being open to the rest of the world on equal terms for mutual benefit. It is these qualities of the Russians after the confusion and vacillation of the 1990s that have become the foundational concept of Russia's foreign policy in the 21st century. They are able to assess the actions of their leadership themselves, without prompting from abroad.

 

2. China, Russia and the Strategy of Indirection

geopoliticalfutures.com · George Friedman · June 29, 2021

Given this conclusion below it seems like we need to be able conduct our own form of irregular warfare and political warfare in the gray zone of great power competition.

In the 2017 NDAA Congress actually provided the concept of operations for strategy and campaign development: 

Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.” 

We would do well to heed Congressional guidance. Interestingly there is supposedly not a single dollar (from what I have been told) in the Pacific Deterrence Initiative to execute such a strategy with supporting campaign plans. You would think the Pacfic Deterrence Initiative and the emerging concept of integrated deterrence would include a line of effort for unconventional deterrence - developing resistance potential among indigenous populations to resist the efforts of Russia and China. SOCEUR and EUCOM are doing this with US friends, partners, and allies in Europe with the implementation of the Resistance Operating Concept. Similar concepts, adapted appropriately for specific conditions, could be employed in designated areas where China is executing its One Belt One Road initiative.

The bottom line is the Pacific Deterrence Initiative and the emerging concept of integrated deterrence needs a line of effort for unconventional deterrence (credit to Bob Jones for this concept: Deterring “Competition Short of War”: Are Gray Zones the Ardennes of our Modern Maginot Line of Traditional Deterrence? https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/deterring-competition-short-war-are-gray-zones-ardennes-our-modern-maginot-line

My thoughts here: Resistance and Resilience in Asia – Political Warfare of Revisionist and Rogue Powers. 

Conclusion: “What the Chinese and Russians need to do is to create politico-military insurgencies and governments spread around the world in the hopes that the U.S., maintaining an alliance against China and Russia, might be forced into responding. The closer to the United States, the greater the need to respond. Hence why Latin America was fertile ground for the Soviets. If the U.S. preempts, it starts accruing military and political costs. If it does not, the danger is massive political costs.

A strategy of indirection is a strategy of opportunism. Intelligence teams are inserted into places that are already hostile to the U.S. The key is to create so many perceived threats and unknowns that U.S. intelligence is forced to counter, but countering all of them is nearly impossible even if it were politically palatable.

The Chinese and Russians face the same problem in principle. Conventional military options against the United States might work, but there is a real possibility they won’t, and neither can afford the internal consequences of failure. They cannot find satisfactory settlements with the Americans and are therefore left with a strategic position that the U.S. might take advantage of. This scenario must be avoided, so an indirect strategy is obvious. The Chinese economic strategy is fine in the short term, but it is highly vulnerable to changes in government. The creation of anti-American states is critical. A strategy of indirection is more prudent, and Russia and China are prudent nations. They have to be.

China, Russia and the Strategy of Indirection | Geopolitical Futures

By George Friedman -

June 29, 2021

 

3. Xi vows to crush meddling forces and Taiwan independence attempts

asia.nikkei.com · July 1, 2021

Threat and response: “He also reiterated Beijing's ambition of achieving reunification with Taiwan, and promised to crush any push for independence on the island that China considers to be a renegade province.

"No one should underestimate the strong determination, firm will and strong ability of the Chinese people to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity," said Xi.

Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council said democracy, freedom, human rights and rule of law are the core values that Taiwan holds on to, which is very different from the authoritarian regime on the other side of the Taiwan Strait.

"The nature of cross-strait relations should be based on mutual respect and understanding. The 23 million Taiwanese people already rejected the CCP's unilateral 'One China' policy and the so-called 1992 consensus," the council said in a press release in response to Xi's speech.

The Taiwanese government will firmly defend its national sovereignty and Taiwan's democracy and freedom, the council said.

 

4. “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan

madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil · by Ian Sullivan · July 1, 2021

Excerpt: “In an effort to guard against the failure of imagination, I will add a narrative to help explain what happened in the game. Rudyard Kipling once said that if “history were taught in the form of stories, it would never be forgotten.” Narrative writing is a powerful, and by spinning it around the bones of a game, I hope to help imagine what a fight could be. Tom Clancy and Larry Bond used this method in their novel where they crafted a narrative around the results of a series of scenarios they played of the wargame Harpoon. My effort here, however, is intended to be more in the spirit of Sir John Hackett’s originally published in 1978, and intended to help NATO leaders imagine what a fight with the Warsaw Pact could look like.

 

5. How great powers should compete

japantimes.co.jp · by Michael Spence · June 30, 2021

From a Nobel laureate.

In a perfect world perhaps - 

Excerpts: “The more often leaders repeat these narratives, the more likely ordinary citizens are to become convinced that they are true. Rising fear and resentment on both sides increases the risk that the narratives will become self-fulfilling prophecies.

In the meantime, the focus on bilateral competition obscures the needs and interests of people in emerging markets and developing economies. Yes, China and the West espouse some version of multilateralism. But unfettered strategic competition precludes effective multilateralism, not least by disrupting trade and technology transfer — a crucial driver of development.

China and the West urgently need a new framework for understanding the state of the world and their place in it. Such a framework must recognize, first and foremost, that properly regulated economic competition is not a zero-sum game.

In static terms, normal economic competition bolsters price efficiency and helps to align supply and demand. In dynamic terms, it leads to what Joseph Schumpeter dubbed “creative destruction” — a powerful mechanism for translating knowledge, ideas and experiments into new products, services and cost-reducing processes. In other words, it leads to advances in human well-being.

...

Such an approach would avoid greater fragmentation of the global economic system, which is particularly damaging to third parties. And it would deter offensive use of military or technological capabilities — vital in an environment where neither side trusts the other.

But a system that minimizes the need for trust does not justify mutual villainization. There is nothing wrong with preferring the governance system in one’s own country, including its particular balance of individual rights and collective interests. Such preferences are based on factors like personal experience, education and values, not objective fact.

 

6. Russia-China tag team could end US space supremacy

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · June 30, 2021

"Space: the final frontier."

 

7. Hugging the Old Bear: Updating The American Playbook for the Long Game

thestrategybridge.org · by Alexander Grinberg· July 1, 2021

Conclusion: “If the United States stabilizes relations with Russia and works towards a mutually beneficial relationship, it is possible to pave a way forward where American and European Union levels of transparency may bleed into Russia. According to Transparency International, Russia’s level of corruption decreased by ten points since 2018, and that trend will continue through Russian interconnectivity and access to the EU.[21] To do business within the EU, European markets force Russian businesses to play by Western European rules. At a grassroots level, the Russian people prefer a more transparent and less-corrupt Russia.[22] The United States should not concern itself with how Putin will politically maneuver himself to win local support in response to stabilizing relations. Instead, the United States, along with the European Union should focus on helping to provide a market and opportunities that Russia needs, thus playing the long game and winning influence in Russia.

Granted, Russia commits acts of disinformation, disruption, and routinely conducts operations to destabilize Western Democracies, but that is today’s Russia and the United States needs a lasting strategy for tomorrow’s Russia. The best way forward is to build domestic resiliency to counter disinformation, a topic thoroughly discussed, while focusing on engagement with Russia. In his speech to Congress on April 29, 2021 President Biden even acknowledged the possibility of developing positive relations with Russia.[23] To achieve a more Western-friendly Russia in the long term, the United States needs to realize that hard-lining and brinkmanship is a Cold War era strategy that needs to be set aside and replaced with a coherent modern strategy that applies proper pressure to shift Russian behavior.

 

8. When Does a ‘Cyber Attack’ Demand Retaliation? NATO Broadens Its View

defenseone.com · by Stefan Soesanto

Conclusion: "Time will tell how the alliance members will posture themselves in practice. Some members might be seizing the opportunity to drive the discussion deeper by bringing up preemptive or preventative self-defense in and through cyberspace. Others might entirely ignore the word “cumulative” due to their very different interpretations of international law applicable to cyberspace. And finally, it is inherently unclear whether adversaries understand this change in the alliance’s posture, whether they care enough, and whether they should take it seriously. NATO leaders should recognize the need for clearer statements on the matter."

 

9. 'The Future Is About Information Dominance:' Gen. Nakasone

breakingdefense.com · by Brad D. Williams · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “But it’s not just CYBERCOM that will play a role in America’s cyber future. Nakasone touted NSA’s role, with its dual missions of signals intelligence and cybersecurity. Nakasone pointed to the importance of cryptology, an NSA specialty, in cyber defenses. “The true backstop is encryption,” he said, “to protect weapons systems and data.” The stronger the US’s crypto capabilities, “the better off we’ll be.”

“I close with optimism,” Nakasone said, “balanced with the realization we have work to do.”

 

10. ‘Heads bashed bloody’: China’s Xi marks Communist Party centenary with strong words for adversaries

The Washington Post · by David Crawshaw and Alicia Chen · July 1, 2021

Great rhetoric (note sarcasm).

But it seems the Chinese people like the phrase: ““The Chinese people have never bullied, oppressed, or enslaved the people of other countries,” he said. “At the same time, the Chinese people will never allow any foreign forces to bully, oppress, or enslave us. Anyone who dares try to do that will have their heads bashed bloody against a Great Wall of steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people.”

 

11. Great Power Competition Requires Theater Deterrence

usni.org · by James Stavridis · July 1, 2021

And part of that theater deterrence should include a population or human domain focused unconventional deterrence as a line of effort. A mindset change is also required for unconventional deterrence.

Conclusion: “All of this requires a change in mind-set, culture, training, and patterns of deployment. Over the past two decades, the Sea Services have—appropriately—been focused on combating global terror and supporting operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan. They have stood an uneasy watch elsewhere around the globe, from the western Pacific to the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean. With the reemergence of great power competition, they need a new overarching concept that inculcates part of Cold War thinking but also includes the kind of “fight tonight” mentality developed in the “forever wars.”

Theater deterrence can unsettle the minds and disrupt the plans of the Chinese and Russian great power adversaries. There are echoes of strategic deterrence and Cold War operations embedded in it, but ultimately theater deterrence practiced against other great powers is the new central concept the United States must embrace.

 

12. Rules-based order: What’s in a name?

lowyinstitute.org · by Ben Scott

This is of course what China and Russia do not like. But I am going to have to add RDO to my acronym list (rules based order). I have not yet adopted that one. (and LIO as well - liberal international order)

Conclusion: “The extent to which what it now called the Indo-Pacific was ever part of the LIO and, its successor, the RBO is open for debate. Post-Cold War globalisation – including of rules – has clearly played a major role in the region’s prosperity. But assertions that the rules-based global order has delivered 70 years of peace and security in the Indo-Pacific are ahistorical and unhelpful. The bloody conflicts in Korea and Vietnam may have been peripheral to the Cold War and the LIO, but they were central to this region.

The development of a more rules-based order for the Indo-Pacific remains a daunting challenge. But without a clear-eyed understanding of the RBO’s history, it will be even harder.

 

13. Analysis: Kim's reshuffles serve to keep North Korea elite in line as crises mount

Reuters · by Josh Smith and Hyonhee Shin · July 01, 2021

Something to observe for: “Irregular political gatherings and personnel attrition in an authoritarian regime such as North Korea can foreshadow things like fundamental failure of the state apparatus or unsteady political transitions, he said.”

 

​I think we should expect some violent purges: “Since last year, Kim has been waging a war against corruption and a lack of discipline in the party, including by shuffling top officials in a way that is reminiscent of his early years in office when he consolidated power by constantly replacing, demoting, or reinstating senior military leaders, said Rachel Minyoung Lee, another specialist with 38 North.

"He is publicly demonstrating that those who fail to follow the instructions and rules, and those who fail to lead properly and achieve desired results will be sacked or demoted, no matter how high up in the ranks they are or how long they have been in their current position," she said.

​...​

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said that Ri and Pak could have been involved in failures to release military rice reserves, while Choe appeared to have been fired for failing to coordinate policy and communications regarding the pandemic.

 

"By revealing it at the politburo meeting, which is a key executive gathering, Kim seems to be sending a warning to all party officials and a message that he will bring them to account if they do wrong," Yang said.

​

14. WHO "not aware' of North Korea COVID-19 "great crisis," China offers help

Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · June 30, 2021

We are all speculating that the great crisis is COVID related, but.....

Excerpts: “"China and the DPRK are friendly neighbors linked by mountains and rivers," Wang said. "We respect the anti-epidemic measures the DPRK has put in place based on its national realities and wish it smooth progress in all its endeavors."

And he emphasized China's ongoing commitment to support North Korea.

"China and the DPRK have a long tradition of mutual assistance in times of need," Wang said. "China stands ready to positively consider providing help to the DPRK should there be such a need."

He declined to answer whether or not China has provided COVID-19 vaccines to North Korea.

As information coming from North Korea remains scarce as ever, a representative of the travel company Koryo Tours confirmed to Newsweek that the country's borders continue to be closed to foreigners, as they have since January 2020, when news of the novel coronavirus first emerged from China.

 

15. House lawmakers seek to slash military personnel funding by $488 million from Biden’s defense budget proposal

Stars and Stripes · by Sarah Cammarata · June 30, 2021

Personnel. The most expensive line in the budget?

"In times of war and not before,

God and the soldier we adore.

But in times of peace and all things righted,

God is forgotten and the soldier slighted."

 

-Rudyard Kipling”

 

16.  A privately funded National Guard deployment is legal, but is it ethical?

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers and Leo Shane III · July 1, 2021

I saw a social media comment that said this action seems to be in line with the Articles of Confederation (which of course was the failed predecessor to our Constitution)

 

17. America’s misplayed debt diplomacy in Cambodia

asiatimes.com · by David Hutt · July 1, 2021

Excerpts: “Instead, the US could be more creative with the $500 million to $700 million it is owed, a rounding error for American finances. A large proportion of it (say Hun Sen’s proposed 70%) could be forgiven and turned into new infrastructure investment for Cambodia, a way of rivaling China’s infrastructure investment in the country.

Or Washington could make a gesture to the Cambodian people, not Hun Sen’s government, by commuting 70% of the debt into new development assistance only for Cambodia’s civil society. Better still, it could wipe off this debt if American inspectors deem the 2023 general election in Cambodia to be legitimate and fair.

Look at it whichever way you wish, the debt gives Washington leverage in a country where its opinion is no longer heeded. If Washington were to get tough and seriously call in the debt, Cambodia’s reputation among international lenders, including the International Monetary Fund, could be jeopardized.

If Phnom Penh wants it wiped out, it must give something in return. If not, the US is happy to let the debt continue to tot up from interest.

 

18. Large Majorities Say China Does Not Respect the Personal Freedoms of Its People

Pew Research · by Laura Silver, Kat Devlin, and Christian Huang · June 30, 2021

Please go to this link to view all the graphs and data. Below is only an excerpt of the text as well.

 

19.  Meet The MC-145B Wily Coyote Armed Special Ops Transport Plane

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · June 30, 2021

This is a new one to me but of course I retired 10 years ago :-) 

 

20. House Panel Proposes $1M to Start Renaming Bases That Honor Confederates

news.usni.org · by Gidget Fuentes · June 30, 2021

A lot of signage and letterheads will have to be changed.

 

21. Naval Special Warfare in a 'Race for Relevancy' as Mission Shifts to High-end Conflict

news.usni.org · by Gidget Fuentes · June 30, 2021

There is still an awful lot left for SOF to do below the level of high end conflict. And even in high end conflict there will still be a great need for operations within the human domain that may be less than high end conflict but will certainly support attaining national security objectives. I fear NAVSPECWARCOM and SOF in general may now be chasing the shiny thing rather than focusing on its comparative advantage across the spectrum of conflict. SOF can and must contribute to high end conflict but it must also recognize (and advocate to leaders, policy makers, and strategists) that its focus on the human domain is applicable across the spectrum of conflict.

 

--------------

 

"I attribute my success to this - I never gave or took any excuse." 

- Florence Nightingale

 

 "Hope lies in dreams, in imagination, and in the courage of those who dare to make dreams into reality." 

- Jonas Salk

 

"History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again."

- Maya Angelou

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1. Moon asks new USFK commander to attend to alliance issues

2. President honors outgoing USFK commander for his service

3. North Korea increases cyberattacks on South Korea

4. North Korea Launches Investigation to Stop Gossip about Kim Jong Un’s Health

5. North Korea congratulates China for party's 100th, sends flowers

6. Kim Jong-un Sacks Officials over COVID 'Crisis'

7. Kim Jong Un's "special order" includes directives to address electricity and running water shortages

8. Is the FBI Scapegoating an American Hero?

9. N. Korea orders farms in Yanggang Province to stop selling off secretly stored up rice

10. Kim Jong Un warns of ‘grave incident’ in North Korea’s Covid fight

11. EXPLAINER: How bad is the pandemic in North Korea?

12. China and USA Not Full Partners on North Korea

13. N.K. leader vows to elevate relations with China to new strategic point

14. China's Role on the Korean Peninsula

15.  Ukraine Gave Up It's Nukes — And Some of Its Secrets to North Korea

16. U.S. aware of NK leader Kim's remarks on 'grave incident' in anti-pandemic steps: State Dept.

 

1. Moon asks new USFK commander to attend to alliance issues

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · July 1, 2021

Interesting that the Joongang Ilbo leads with this title. He should be asking the incoming ROK/US CFC commander to attend to alliance issues. The USFK Commander is the commander of a sub-unified command that answers to the INDOPACOM Commander.  The USFK Commander does not manage alliance issues. He is the force provider to the ROK/US CFC which is the bilateral combined command equally "co-owned" by the ROK and US. This "co-ownership" is exercised through the Military Committee which is made up of representatives of both countries' national command and military authorities. Note the same relationship will remain in effect after the OPCON transition process takes place (which will be a change of command between a ROK and US general officer).

And we should keep in mind that as the commander of ROK/US Combined Forces Commander General LaCamera will work equally for both presidents (and after the OPCON transition the ROK general commanding ROK/US CFC will work equally for both presidents). I have heard nearly every successful US commander state that. It is critically important in understanding the command relationships of the combined command. The USFK commander answers to USINDOPACOM and the United Nations Command commander answers to the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

 

2. President honors outgoing USFK commander for his service

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo · July 1, 2021

I believe more people than Generals Abrams and LaCamera share this idea. I believe our president and all our civilian political and military leadership share this as well. I also believe the ROK military leadership and the national security professionals in the ROK government believe this. There can be no effective diplomacy with north Korea without a strong foundation of military readiness that contributes to deterrence and defense.

Excerpt: “LaCamera also shares Abrams' idea of strengthening military readiness. During his confirmation hearing before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee in May, he said he believes joint field exercises are "extremely important to build readiness," and said he would work toward their resumption.

 

3. North Korea increases cyberattacks on South Korea

The Korea Times · by Kanh Seung-woo · July 1, 2021

I think Representative Ha is channeling my colleague Mathew Ha based on his policy brief here. 

 

4.  North Korea Launches Investigation to Stop Gossip about Kim Jong Un’s Health

rfa.org · by Hyemin Son and Albert Hong

They are trying hard to control the narrative.  I sure wish we could turn loose the ROK and US PSYOP professionals to exploit this. If only we have an information and influence activities campaign with the agility to exploit these developments.

 

5. North Korea congratulates China for party's 100th, sends flowers

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

 Kim has given his assessment of great power competition between the US and PRC: “Kim said in the message that "hostile forces" are engaged in "vicious slander and all-round pressure" upon China in what appears to be a reference to the rising Sino-U.S. rivalry, according to the North’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in an English-language report Thursday.”

 

6. Kim Jong-un Sacks Officials over COVID 'Crisis'

english.chosun.com · July 01, 2021

It will be interesting to see who was purged and how was promoted. And will we see any "disciplinary action" (e.g, of the 14.5mm size)

And of course Kim blames everyone but himself. He refuses to accept responsibility for his poor decision making.

 

7.  Kim Jong Un's "special order" includes directives to address electricity and running water shortages

dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · July 1, 2021

Another indicator of the poor conditions inside north Korea. They could surely make use of those portable nuclear reactors the US Army is developing. 

 

8. Is the FBI Scapegoating an American Hero?

The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk · July 1, 2021

In addition to my comments in the article here are some of my additional thoughts (and speculation) about this unfortunate situation.

We should keep in mind that the FBI has people on its most wanted list who are allegedly guilty of far greater crimes than Adrian Hong who they have not been able to apprehend. If they cannot catch some of the most dangerous criminals then it must not be too hard for Adrian to avoid capture especially as he is probably not too high a priority.  When you think about it, why do they want to apprehend him just to extradite him to Spain? What does that really do for US interests?

Here is my speculation: someone made a poor decision with the apprehension of Ahn. Ahn was probably fairly easy to apprehend because he may not have been practicing tradecraft as well as Hong (see the description of the apprehension in the article) and when he was located someone was probably just following the proper procedure and executed the arrest due to the request from Spain. It is causing us unnecessary problems with the extradition process and bad public relations. While they may have been looking for both Ahn and Hong at the request of Spanish authorities as they have seen how the Ahn apprehension has played out, they may have have reevaluated their effort to apprehend Hong because it will create even more problems and probably negative public relations not only for the FBI but create issues for the Biden administration. So turning a blind eye to Hong is certainly plausible.

Also, since I think Hong is a Mexican citizen he may have returned to Mexico. We certainly are not going to expend US law enforcement efforts in Mexico to try to apprehend him when we have so many other issues (e.g., drug trafficking) that we have to worry about. And if he was apprehended in Mexico it would have to be done by the Mexicans and they would have to extradite him to Spain. I doubt anyone would suggest extraditing him to the US just for the US to try to extradite him to Spain. 

So the bottom line is I think Hong is getting a free pass, Ahn is the sacrificial lamb who may be being sacrificed by mistake. My only hope is the court finds a legal justification to not extradite him because if he is extradited he will be at grave risk for north Korean retaliation.

 

9. N. Korea orders farms in Yanggang Province to stop selling off secretly stored up rice

dailynk.com · Jong So Yong · July 1, 2021

Another important indicator.

 

10. Kim Jong Un warns of ‘grave incident’ in North Korea’s Covid fight

Financial Times · by Edward White · June 30, 2021

What is the grave incident?

Excerpts: “Soo Kim, a former CIA North Korea analyst now at the Rand Corporation, a US think-tank, said the international community had been waiting for Pyongyang to “crack and show greater signs of unease”.

“That Kim chose to blame his cadres — rather than taking responsibility and pursuing concrete steps to correct the situation — may give some indication that Kim takes the virus seriously, but perhaps not to the extent that it will move him to make the right decision,” she said.

 

11. EXPLAINER: How bad is the pandemic in North Korea?

AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung and Hyung-Jin Kim · June 30, 2021

 

12. China and USA Not Full Partners on North Korea

The National Interest · by Denny Roy · June 30, 2021

Are we even part-time partners? Our interests probably align on three things - no war, no instability or collapse, and no nukes. But my guess is China is least committed to denuclearization because it fears war and instability much more.

And of course we probably do not see eye to eye on how to prevent war or instability.

 

13. N.K. leader vows to elevate relations with China to new strategic point

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 1, 2021

I wonder what is the "new strategic point."

 

14.  China's Role on the Korean Peninsula

The National Interest · by Gilbert Rozman · June 30, 2021

I concur with Gil that China has never prioritized denuclearization. (and it never will)

It would love to see north Korea adopt "Chinese style reforms" especially to its economy. Of course Kim cannot "reform" because it will risk undermining regime legitimacy.

And the irony is the US and PRC are both committed to their visions (as the Moon administration is to its peace agenda) - none of which are unattainable as long as the Kim family regime remains in power.

 

15. Ukraine Gave Up It's Nukes — And Some of Its Secrets to North Korea

The National Interest · by Eli Fuhrman · June 30, 2021

This is why we need to track the "human infrastructure" of north Korea's nuclear and missile programs. 

 

16. U.S. aware of NK leader Kim's remarks on 'grave incident' in anti-pandemic steps: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 1, 2021

 

--------------

 

"I attribute my success to this - I never gave or took any excuse." 

- Florence Nightingale

 

 "Hope lies in dreams, in imagination, and in the courage of those who dare to make dreams into reality." 

- Jonas Salk

 

 "History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again." 

- Maya Angelou