News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Top US general says security in Afghanistan deteriorating

2.  Biden Needs an International Organizations Strategy

3. SOCOM To Test Anti-Aging Pill Next Year

4. The Emerging Biden Doctrine

5. Military drones are transforming war — we need a doctrine to use them right

6. Afghan Conflict Update - June 2021 | SOF News

7. Air Strikes Renew Battle Over War Authorizations

8. A Better Blueprint for International Organizations - Advancing American Interests on the Global Stage

9. Top Pentagon Cyber Official Probed Over Disclosure Concerns

10. India, China and the Quad’s defining test

11. Ending Forever Wars But Not Interventionism: Rethinking U.S. Civil Society Assistance Policy

12. Gradually and Then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy

13. China-Russia: A Strategic Partnership Short on Strategy

14. The Case Against the Concept of Great Power Competition

15. Party-to-party diplomacy: the Chinese strategy for crafting its own narratives

16. U.S. military commander in Afghanistan warns of possible civil war

17. Taiwan Sovereignty Key to Western Pacific Security, Says Japanese Defense Official

18. 'This means war': China warns US over military ties with Taipei

19. Have Biden and Trump Altered a Core Theory of Political Science?

 

1. Top US general says security in Afghanistan deteriorating

militarytimes.com · by Kathy Gannon · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “He said his time as the head of the U.S.’s military mission in Afghanistan was coming to an end, without giving a date, though the press briefing had the feeling of a farewell.

Miller wouldn’t speculate on the legacy of America’s longest war, saying it will be for history to decide.

“The future will tell the rest of the story,” he said. “What we will have to do is make an honest assessment of what went well and what didn’t go so well over the years as we work forward.”

 

2. Biden Needs an International Organizations Strategy

Foreign Policy · by Richard Goldberg · June 29, 2021

This is one of the battlefields where China is conducting political warfare. As I have written many times, my assessment of Chinese strategy is this: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions. I think we have to effectively compete in the international organizations arena. We cannot be passive.

Excerpts: “The Biden administration must understand that mere engagement is not the same as actively pushing for outcomes that strengthen the United States’ national security and promote its values. This tendency to engage for engagement’s sake confuses the means with the end. You can’t win if you don’t fight—assuming winning is the goal.

Whether working with allies or mounting the fight alone, Washington must wage a campaign of reform battles, agency by agency, to restore the U.S.-led international order. That means fixing where possible and nixing when necessary. The battle to advance U.S. interests and counter adversaries inside international organizations will require tenacity and commitment. And that commitment must come from Democrats and Republicans alike.

It’s only a matter of time before a multilateral agency fails to address the next regional or global crisis. The United States must learn the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic’s cover-up perpetrated by China and enabled by the WHO. Failure to do so could lead to even greater loss of life and economic devastation. Policymakers can take critical steps to protect Americans now. But that will require a readiness to hold international organizations accountable rather than writing more blank checks and hoping for the best.

 

3. SOCOM To Test Anti-Aging Pill Next Year

breakingdefense.com · by Theresa Hitchens · June 29, 2021

"If I could turn back time."

I would volunteer for this. Where can I sign up?

Excerpt: “The pill “has the potential, if it is successful, to truly delay aging, truly prevent onset of injury — which is just amazingly game changing,” Lisa Sanders, director of science and technology for Special Operations Forces, acquisition, technology & logistics (SOF AT&L), said Friday.

“We have completed pre-clinical safety and dosing studies in anticipation of follow-on performance testing in fiscal year 2022,” Navy Cmdr. Tim Hawkins, a SOCOM spokesperson, said.

 

4. The Emerging Biden Doctrine

Foreign Affairs · by Hal Brands · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “Focusing on the ideological and technological struggle could also distract the administration from equally pressing military dangers. The United States could, after all, lose the contest of systems by failing to contain authoritarian aggressors and defend democratic outposts in eastern Europe and the western Pacific. A bipartisan commission on U.S. defense strategy warned in 2018 that the United States simply does not have the military power necessary to meet its commitments around the Eurasian periphery. The Pentagon is facing a gaping window of vulnerability in the Taiwan Strait. Yet the administration has shown comparatively little urgency on the military front: its first Pentagon budget request is flat (in real terms) and shortchanges near-term measures to harden the United States’ posture in the Pacific. Today’s rivalries are about more than military power—but democratic values won’t save the free world in a gunfight.

Finally, the connection between the foreign and domestic components of the strategy is not as seamless as the administration claims. In Biden’s view, improving the economic fortunes of the middle class is insurance against a Trumpist resurrection and a way of strengthening the domestic foundations of U.S. diplomacy. Yet among the practical results have been a “Buy American” edict that looks like “America first” with Democratic characteristics and an underwhelming trade policy that, so far, has left many countries—particularly in Asia—wondering if the United States is really back. If Biden’s strategy doesn’t support an expansive, ambitious notion of prosperity, it won’t do much for the cohesion and power of the free world.

 

5. Military drones are transforming war — we need a doctrine to use them right

The Hill · by Seth J. Frantzman · June 28, 2021

Excerpts: “The quest for a drone doctrine will be answered by the first country to field a force that is fully integrated with the technology and air defenses to stop drone threats. Drones have proved themselves useful in ungoverned spaces where asymmetric warfare is typical, such as hunting militants in Somalia or in the fighting between Saudi Arabia and the militant Houthis in Yemen. Drones primarily work well in uncontested airspace against those who lack integrated, multi-layered air defense.

If we look at the history of military platforms, we find other eras with such experimentation — for example, the various tanks that emerged in the 1920s and 1930s, many of them an evolutionary dead end prior to the creation of main battle tanks, or the types of warships built prior to the dreadnought. Drones, whether small or large, need to mature and become more trusted before they are widely adopted. Then they will be sorted, so that the best systems become a mainstay.

 

6. Afghan Conflict Update - June 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by John Friberg · June 30, 2021

 

7. Air Strikes Renew Battle Over War Authorizations

defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher

Excerpts: “Hathaway said she believes the administration has already reached the point where it should consult with Congress after two strikes, since they don’t fall under either existing authorization.

“If you have this ongoing threat…ordinarily authority to act under Article II is supposed to be used in situations where the president for whatever reason doesn’t have the opportunity to consult in any deep and significant way with Congress,” she said. “It’s not supposed to be a blank check.”

Other experts said that the president always has the authority to defend America.

“Can you imagine if a month from now, there are still attacks happening and Biden said, ‘I really would like to defend our forces, but we can’t...do anything because it’s been a recurring series,’” said Robert Chesney, the associate dean at the University of Texas School of Law. “If they keep attacking us, we have the ability to self-defense.”

And, without a clear pathway for Congress to approve a new authorization if Biden asked, it could backfire politically, Chesney said, pointing to the example of the Clinton administration asking Congress to authorize air strikes in the Balkans. Lawmakers did not approve the request, but the White House carried out the strikes anyway and “took a ton of heat.”

 

8.  A Better Blueprint for International Organizations - Advancing American Interests on the Global Stage

fdd.org · by Richard Goldberg and Nikki Haley · June 30, 2021

The 56 page monograph can be downloaded here. 

 

9. Top Pentagon Cyber Official Probed Over Disclosure Concerns

Bloomberg · by Anthony Capaccio · June 29, 2021

 

10. India, China and the Quad’s defining test

aspistrategist.org.au · by Arzan Tarapore · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “The task before Quad governments is to be sensitised to this risk and implement mitigation strategies before a possible conflict, to buttress the coalition in advance. As I outline in the ASPI paper, they could do this at three levels. First, they could offer operational support—such as intelligence or resupply of key equipment, as the US already has done in the Ladakh crisis—although Quad partners’ role here would be limited. Second, they could provide support in other theatres or domains—with a naval show of force, for example, although cyber operations would probably be more meaningful in deterring conflict or dampening its costs. Third, they could provide political and diplomatic support—signalling to Beijing that a conflict would harm its regional political standing.

For Quad members, the main goal would be to deter conflict in the first place, and, failing that, to preserve the long-term strategic partnership with India for the sake of maintaining as powerful and energetic a coalition as possible to counterbalance China in the long term.

 

11.  Ending Forever Wars But Not Interventionism: Rethinking U.S. Civil Society Assistance Policy

warontherocks.com · by Davin O’Regan · June 30, 2021

Excerpts: “Reducing direct on-the-ground political interventions in other countries may lessen concerns among critical partners, such as India, and mitigate claims by Russia and China about U.S. meddling in the domestic affairs of other states. Changes to U.S. civil society assistance are not going to immediately transform relations with Russia, China, and others. These countries in particular will likely continue targeting advocacy groups and activists and probably attempt campaigns of interference in foreign states. But over time it may also reduce fears that the United States is trying to advance regime change as a strategic objective, concerns that may be motivating harsh anti-nongovernmental organization laws and stoking bilateral tensions.

These are not easy recommendations to make, and much of this analysis makes me uneasy. I have had the privilege to meet with and learn from civil society leaders and activists who work in challenging environments to advance meaningful progressive reforms that I wholeheartedly support. They are always inspiring, innovative, and courageous, and so it is difficult to conclude that their support should sometimes be curtailed.

But while I usually share this vision, I am not surprised if their compatriots and governments raise an eyebrow over their work and motives. U.S. foreign assistance for civil society could be interpreted as a form of political intervention – and U.S. rhetoric on regime change fails to ease such concerns. Consistent with a growing impetus for a more careful U.S. foreign policy, it may be time for more restraint in U.S. engagement with civil society groups in other countries.

 

12. Gradually and Then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy

warontherocks.com · by Christopher Dougherty · June 30, 2021

Certainly a provocative headline (thanks to Hemmingway).

Excerpts:  “The problems facing the Navy weren’t created in a single budget, and they won’t be fixed in a single budget. To get the Navy out of its force-planning doldrums, the next National Defense Strategy should clarify its assessment of the China challenge and serve as a forcing function to create a shared vision of the future Navy. The 2018 defense strategy tried to prioritize modernizing the Navy to deter future war with China over building near-term fleet capacity to supply ships to service geographic combatant command requests for forward forces. This prioritization got lost in implementation, as “Dynamic Force Employment” became shorthand for running the Navy ragged with repeated deployments, often to tertiary theaters like U.S. Central Command.

A clear assessment of the China challenge and a shared vision for the future fleet would help improve the gap between strategy and implementation that plagued the 2018 strategy. Perhaps more importantly, it would enable Navy and department leadership to work with, rather than against, Congress to undertake a long-term program to rebuild the Navy and reinvigorate the maritime industrial base on which the Navy and the nation depend.

Achieving consensus on this won’t be easy, as there are good reasons why China observers vary in their assessments of the risk of conflict and why U.S. naval and defense strategists differ on their visions of the future fleet. However, without this consensus and a concerted effort to reverse decades of drift, the Navy will continue its gradual slide toward strategic bankruptcy, and the risk of its debts coming due suddenly (and perhaps violently) will increase.

 

13.China-Russia: A Strategic Partnership Short on Strategy

thediplomat.com · by Nicholas Trickett · June 30, 2021

Concussion: "The Sino-Russian relationship, nothing like an “alliance,” will continue to endure and in some ways deepen. Chinese firms are still interested in Russia’s human capital and natural resources and Russian firms and investors want to find growth in China’s market. The Putin-Xi meeting, however, emphasized performance over substance, limited by domestic political considerations and the scope of the two countries’ mutual interests. There’s a sense that there is no clear consensus over what order in Central Asia and Eurasia more broadly ought to look like, nor any attempt to show that it’s not just the world’s democracies talking a mean game about coordinating climate efforts. Instead, China and Russia continue their repeated focus on presenting a united front against the dominance of American and transatlantic power – without reflecting on what that power is actually doing right now."

 

14.  The Case Against the Concept of Great Power Competition

thestrategybridge.org · by Matej Kandrík · June 30, 2021

A view from the Czech Republic.

Forceful conclusion: “What is the added value of Great Power Competition?

The failure of great power competition as a concept is almost absolute. Great Power Competition exploits intuitive or implicit understanding of what great powers are, while it gives no solid clues on what actors should policy makers consider relevant and why. States compete all the time. Competition is something states naturally do in a quest for security, prosperity, and prestige. Still, competition is hardly a defining feature of how states seek to achieve or secure their interests. States employ unique blends of cooperative, competitive, and conflict interactions vis their partner, rivals, and adversaries. Great power competition provides close to zero helpful guidance on how decision-makers should act and, most importantly, what they should seek through competition with others. Based on this assessment, great power competition seems like a hollow, unhelpful, and even an eventually dangerous bumper sticker slogan.

 

15. Party-to-party diplomacy: the Chinese strategy for crafting its own narratives

indianexpress.com · by Shikha Aggarwal · June 30, 2021

A view from India.

Excerpts: “A prominent strategy employed by the CCP to advance its role in global politics is “party-to-party diplomacy” through which the CCP manufactures consent for Beijing-led narratives, geo-strategic constructs and China’s global ambitions among political elites and parties in other countries. The party organ dedicated to this enterprise is the International Department (IDCPC).

The IDCPC is one of the five principal bodies that operate directly under the CCP Central Committee and has so far established relations with more than 400 political parties and organisations in over 140 countries.

 

16. U.S. military commander in Afghanistan warns of possible civil war

The Washington Post · by Pamela ConstableJune · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “Another obstacle to a peaceful settlement of the war, he said, is the persistent discord and political factionalism within the Afghan government and political elite. Ethnic and personal rivalries have led to constant policy changes and turnover in senior military and civilian posts, weakening confidence among civilians and morale in the defense forces.

Miller did not comment directly on the likelihood that the Ghani government could collapse as soon as six months after the U.S. troop withdrawal, but he said it was crucial for government officials and rival political leaders to “unify” as the war intensifies and hopes for peace fade. Otherwise, he said, “I see very tough times ahead.”

 

17. Taiwan Sovereignty Key to Western Pacific Security, Says Japanese Defense Official

news.usni.org · by John Grady · June 28, 2021

A significant statement.

 

18. 'This means war': China warns US over military ties with Taipei

americanmilitarynews.com · by Avik Roy - Hindustan Times · June 29, 2021

 

19. Have Biden and Trump Altered a Core Theory of Political Science?

The National Interest · by Jeffrey Stacey · June 29, 2021

Some interesting political theory analysis.

 

-------------------

 

"Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other." 

- John F. Kennedy

 

"All great masters are chiefly distinguished by the power of adding a second, a third and perhaps a fourth step in a continuous line. Many a man had taken the first step. With every additional step you enhance immensely the value of your first." 

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

"Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile." 

- Albert Einstein

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Report on 2nd Enlarged Meeting of Political Bureau of 8th C.C., WPK

2.  Aides 'Begged Kim Jong-un to Lose Weight'

3. N.K. leader says 'crucial case' has happened due to lapses in anti-epidemic efforts

4. No. of N.K. defectors entering resettlement center drops 85 pct on year to 57 in first half

5. Kim vents wrath over some Covid-related problem

6. U.S. respects South's opting out of military exercises

7. Upgrading our diplomacy (South Korea)

8. The North Korean Nuclear Arsenal

9. Does Biden have a North Korea policy? Not really

10. Clock ticking for Seoul's last-ditch efforts to thaw inter-Korean ties

11. North Korea orders the release of military rice stores to general population

12. North Korea moves to significantly reorganize command structure of the Strategic Force

13. North Korea’s Kim warns of ‘grave incident’ in fight against the coronavirus

14. American student David Sneddon did not die in China, family says

15. The Ultimate Pandora's Box: What If North Korea Collapsed?

16. North Korea Orders Nationwide School Renovations, Sends Bill to Parents

 

1. Report on 2nd Enlarged Meeting of Political Bureau of 8th C.C., WPK

kcnawatch.org

This is the statement that is getting a lot of press. One of the significant areas of speculation from this is that there is major COVID outbreak in the north that the regime may not be able to control. I have seen no open source reporting on this possibility.

Excerpts: “The respected General Secretary made an important conclusion.

Saying that the importance of the responsibility and role of senior officials including members of the Party central leadership organ and officials of units at all levels has become further salient after the 8th Congress of the Party, he referred to the necessity to put primary efforts into the work of building up the ranks of cadres into an elite force as the revolution advances and the situation gets grave, and to the major orientation of improving the cadres policy of our Party.

He expressed the opinion of the Party Central Committee concerning the seriousness of the acts alien to the Party revealed by the senior officials of the Party and the state.

He seriously pointed out that chronic irresponsibility and incompetence of cadres at present bring artificial difficulties to the implementation of the Party's policies and become a major brake doing tremendous harm to the development of the revolutionary work, stressing the need for the cadres to make increasingly exact demands on themselves and fulfill their responsibility and duty with high sense of extreme responsibility and practical ability.

He severely criticized the attitude of working like a flash in the pan, empiricism and old way of thinking generally revealed among cadres.

 

2. Aides 'Begged Kim Jong-un to Lose Weight'

english.chosun.com · June 29, 2021

It will be interesting to see how long the propaganda effort will play out and what will be the continued messaging. And then it will be interesting to see how they handle it when he regains the weight.

 

3.  N.K. leader says 'crucial case' has happened due to lapses in anti-epidemic efforts

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 30, 2021

I hope we are paying close attention to the potential for an outbreak within the military.

Of course, this could all be part of a Propaganda and agitation Department effort to shape the information conditions for Kim to be able to make demands of the international community and especially the US and the ROK to provide concessions and most importantly sanctions relief.

And COVID will likely be the excuse for the continued stonewalling on any kind of north-south engagement and a return to nuclear negotiations. 

 

4. No. of N.K. defectors entering resettlement center drops 85 pct on year to 57 in first half

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 30, 2021

I am sure the draconian population and resources control measures implemented by the regime to mitigate the effects of COVID is likely a contributing factor.

 

5.  Kim vents wrath over some Covid-related problem

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com  · by  Sarah Kim · June 30, 2021

It is still a mystery what is that "crucial case" that caused a "great crisis" endangering the safety of the country."

Yes, all the speculation is about COVID. So what is the "crucial case?"

 

6. U.S. respects South's opting out of military exercises

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee · June 30, 2021

At first I thought this was about opting out of the August combined exercises but this is about withdrawing from the Black Sea exercise Sea Breeze 21. 

I am disappointed as this was an opportunity for Korea to participate in an exercise with like-minded democracies and to demonstrate its military capabilities as a strong middle power. The Moon administration's timidity is not helpful.

 

7. Upgrading our diplomacy

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Wi Sung-lac · June 30, 2021

I have had the honor to work with Ambassador Wi on a number of Track II projects and in many conferences.

Excerpts: “South Korea may belong to the G7 league in economics, but it needs to build up its diplomatic capabilities.

Moon has attended a G7 summit with such intrinsic problems. They didn’t matter so much since his role had been restricted to a guest. But Korea joined the Open Societies Statement that included declarations on open markets, democracy and human rights issues aimed at China and Russia. The mention of the North Korean nuclear threat did not comply with South Korean views. If Seoul continues activities within the G7 without minding those gaps, it may not be able to last in the framework.

There must be efforts to advance diplomatic capabilities. Korean diplomacy focused on domestic views, politics and the Korean Peninsula should be broadened to the international context. The conservatives and liberals must agree on policies on North Korea and China. A national consensus must be built on a future-oriented relationship with Japan.

Such a policy shift would be tantamount to a comprehensive reform of Korean diplomacy. Diplomatic reform has been long overdue. Now that Korea has ascended to the ranks of the G7, discussions on diplomatic reform must start. Although the work should start immediately, it cannot be expected by an administration with one year left. The work will have to be taken up by the next administration. Presidential aspirants must pay attention to the need for reform in diplomacy.

Korean diplomacy cannot truly represent Korea’s stature today. It must be radically upgraded to stand on par with other G7 members. A social consensus also must be built for diplomatic reform through the momentum of G7 participation.

 

8. The North Korean Nuclear Arsenal

realcleardefense.com · by Mark B. Schneider

Excerpts: “There is no fixed quantity of fissile material for a nuclear weapon. The amount necessary depends on the type of weapon (fission, boosted fission [use of fusion reactions to boost the yield of the fission device] or fission-fusion or thermonuclear weapons, all of which North Korea has reportedly tested). The amount required depends on the objective for the weapon, its desired yield, its size and weight, the design approach and the technology available, including the high explosive implosion system. However, to assume that every North Korean nuclear weapon requires 16-20 kilograms of HEU is not credible.

While the Chinese were open to Reed and Stillman about their assistance to Pakistan and North Korea, the content of their book, important as it is, is dated. Assuming 16 -20 kg of HEU is necessary in a nuclear bomb could result in a considerable underestimate of North Korean and Iranian nuclear weapons numbers.

There is a good case to be made for a serious study, with ample representation by scientists and engineers from the nuclear weapons laboratories, to look at the assumptions being made about fissile material requirements and related issues for rogue state nuclear weapons. This is an important issue for the Biden administration’s nuclear posture review.

 

9. Does Biden have a North Korea policy? Not really

asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider · June 30, 2021

My assessment of the Biden policy is that it is practical and principled diplomacy (the Administration's words) that provides the opportunity for KimJong-un to act as a responsible member of the international community and come to the table to negotiate denuclearization and all related security and engagement issues. The US is willing to negotiate without any pre-conditions.

It does not give Kim a pass. It will not provide concessions until there is substantive progress. The policy calls for the implementation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions; the dismantlement of North Korea’s missile and nuclear arsenals; accountability for human rights; and halting Pyongyang’s global illicit activities, malicious cyber operations, and proliferation. And perhaps most importantly it will continue sanctions enforcement. The policy rests on the foundation of strong alliances and "stern deterrence."

Although it is not the strategic patience of the Obama administration, COVID 19 and the nature of the north Korean regime appear to prevent near term engagement and negotiation. On the other hand "stern deterrence “is not fire and fury but a demonstration of strategic determination and strategic resolve through combined military strength on the Korean peninsula and in the region. It will also not be the "grand bargains" of the Clinton and Bush eras nor the fire and fury and unconventional, experimental top-down, pen-pal diplomacy of the Trump administration.

So what is the new policy?

We should recall Dr. Kurt Campbell's interview with Yonhap last month:

·     On May 19, 2021 Dr. Kurt Campbell provided the a look at what might be the major elements of the policy that can be described as practical diplomacy.

o  "Importantly: Our policy towards North Korea is not aimed at hostility, it's aimed at solutions. It's aimed at ultimately achieving the complete de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," Campbell said in the exclusive interview with Yonhap.

o  "And we're prepared to engage in diplomacy towards that ultimate objective, but work on practical measures that can help us make progress along the way towards that goal," he said.

o  After concluding its policy review on the North, the Biden administration said that the new policy will seek a "calibrated, practical approach that is open to and will explore diplomacy" with North Korea.

o  Most importantly he said he stated policy would build on the Singapore Agreement.

We should also recall President Biden's own remarks last October when he was candidate Biden:

o  Out of the ashes of war, South Korea has shown the world the "miracle of the Han River," becoming a shining example of a flourishing democracy and economic powerhouse. It has been a global leader in the fight against COVID-19; and a strong ally in the region, to advance our shared prosperity, values, and security, and to meet global challenges.

 

o  Words matter -- and a president's words matter even more. As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops. I'll engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula, while working to reunite Korean Americans separated from loved ones in North Korea for decades. 

The policy also calls for "building on" the Panmunjom and Singapore summit.

The four points from the Singapore statement:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.–DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

Lastly, President Biden's words tell us that he will maintain deterrence and defense as the foundation: "On Iran and North Korea — nuclear programs that present serious threats to American security and the security of the world — we’re going to be working closely with our allies to address the threats posed by both of these countries through di- — through diplomacy, as well as stern deterrence." 

So what will we call this policy is not a grand bargain, not strategic deterrence, not fire and fury, and not unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy? Note that none these names were given by the previous administrations as official names of the policies but instead were coined by pundits and the press (less strategic patience by the late Stephen Bosworth.

The Biden administration should consider some names to describe the policy both to prevent the pundits and press from developing derogatory names and to help that policy narrative.

Some basic descriptions could include these but I am sure the smart policy people at State and the NSC can come up with some effective names.

• Principled, Practical Diplomacy and Stern Deterrence
• Solutions Diplomacy Based on Strength
• Options Diplomacy and Stern Deterrence

 

10.  Clock ticking for Seoul's last-ditch efforts to thaw inter-Korean ties

The Korea Times · Name Hyun-woo · June 30, 2021

I think the Moon administration must come to the realization that Kim Jong-un is not going to engage any time soon both because of COVID and because of his nature and the political warfare strategy he is executing. Certainly there can be no breakthrough between now and the South Korean presidential election in March.

The Moon administration tried almost everything and has been making good faith efforts to engage for the past few years. But it is not the Moon administration's fault. That lies squarely on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un.

I recommend the Moon administration shift its narrative to explaining to the Korean people why engagement was not possible and expose KIm Jong-un. One of the best things the Moon administration could do is to remind the Korean people in the South and north about the nature, objectives, and strategy of t Kim Jong-un as well as the evil doings of the Kim family regime. The Korean people in the South have grown complacent not only about the threat from the north but about any contingency that might arise from whatever happens inside north Korea. It is time for the administration to have a frank conversation with the Korean people in the South about the regime in the north.

 

11.  North Korea orders the release of military rice stores to general population

dailynk.com · Lee Chae Un · June 30, 2021

An important indicator of the situation in the north.

Okay but here is a buried lede.Has the regime implemented a new concept: "people-first politics?" Is this supposed to replace songun (military first politics) and byungjin (simultaneous nuclear and economic development)? Or is this just another propaganda effort for the people in the north? (most likely in my opinion). 

North Korea’s leadership may soon release plans to deal with the country’s electricity and water woes given that it is focused on bolstering internal solidarity through “people-first politics.”

 I did find this article in KCNA from February. But does this mean anything more than a change in propaganda themes and messages?

 

12. North Korea moves to significantly reorganize command structure of the Strategic Force

dailynk.com · June 30, 2021

We should take this with a grain of salt since it is from the Daily NK and it is not known for military analysis. That said this could be an important development.

 

13. North Korea’s Kim warns of ‘grave incident’ in fight against the coronavirus

The Washington Post · by Simon Denyer· June 30, 2021

Inquiring minds what to know. What is the "grave incident?"

 

14. American student David Sneddon did not die in China, family says

UPI  · by Elizabeth Shim · June 29, 2021

A story that does not often make the news. But we should not forget what happened to David Sneddon.

We have become numb to the abduction but the fact is Koreans, Japanese, and Americans have been kidnapped by the evil Kim family regime with most never being heard from again.

 

15. The Ultimate Pandora's Box: What If North Korea Collapsed?

19fortyfive.com · by Eli Fuhrman · June 29, 2021

Be careful what you ask for.

But I am glad to see this key reference linked in this piece. This is one of the most critical aspects of being prepared for any contingency in north Korea - from war to collapse to unification, it is the least costly, and could have a huge payoff if we (specifically the ROK/US alliance as the "we') invest in it now: An Information Based Strategy to Reduce North Korea’s Increasing Threat: Recommendations for ROK & U.S. Policy Makers 

 

16. North Korea Orders Nationwide School Renovations, Sends Bill to Parents

rfa.org · by Myungchul Lee

"People-first politics?" Perhaps it means the people pay first (last and always).

 

---------------

 

"Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other." 

- John F. Kennedy

 

"All great masters are chiefly distinguished by the power of adding a second, a third and perhaps a fourth step in a continuous line. Many a man had taken the first step. With every additional step you enhance immensely the value of your first." 

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

"Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile." 

- Albert Einstein

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. The lawfulness of the airstrikes on Iranian-proxy militia drone facilities…and more about the growing drone threat

2. Marine who was shot is newlywed son of former Pentagon official

3. It’s imminent: After nearly 20 years US to leave Bagram

4. Former Green Beret, son, apologize to Tokyo court for role in Ghosn escape

5. Deep inside China’s perfect surveillance state

6. Reading Between the Lines of the CCP’s Centennial Propaganda Blitz

7. Getting Out of Iran's Way

8. Report estimates major cyberattack could cost more than recovering from natural disasters

9. ‘A Form of Brainwashing’: China Remakes Hong Kong

10. Re-Thinking the Strategic Approach to Asymmetrical Warfare

11. More than Just Friends: The Strategic Advantage of Enduring Relationships

12. Sullivan Becomes First Woman to Command an SFAB Battalion

13. Analysis | Biden’s lose-lose game in Afghanistan

14. Italy Says Its Relations With U.S. Far More Important Than With China

15. A Confused Biden Team Risks Losing Southeast Asia

16. 1 truth and 3 lies about Critical Race Theory

17. Democracies Don’t Try to Make Everyone Agree

 

SPECIAL: FDD Foreign Policy Tracker

Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker · FDD Staff · June 29, 2021

Access the tracker and each subject area at this link.

 

1. The lawfulness of the airstrikes on Iranian-proxy militia drone facilities…and more about the growing drone threat

sites.duke.edu · by Charlie Dunlap · June 28, 2021

We can always count on Maj Gen Dunlap for sound legal and strategic analysis. He always tackles the tough and critical issues.

 

2. Marine who was shot is newlywed son of former Pentagon official

Daily Mail · by Melissa Koenig · June 28, 2021

First for all my Special Forces brothers note the Marine is the son-in-law of COL Jack Jensen. He reported on Facebook that his son-in-law will be okay and was not sure why the Daily Mail chose to make this about him as well as his daughter and son-in-law.

Second, this article delves into crime statistics as well as the details of the shooting.

 

3. It’s imminent: After nearly 20 years US to leave Bagram

militarytimes.com · by Kathy Gannon · June 29, 2021

One of many concerns: “Roggio says the status of the prison is a “major concern,” noting that many of its prisoners are known Taliban leaders or members of militant groups, including al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. It’s believed about 7,000 prisoners are still in the prison.

“If the base falls and the prison is overrun, these detainees can bolster the ranks of these terror groups,” Roggio said.

 

4. Former Green Beret, son, apologize to Tokyo court for role in Ghosn escape

armytimes.com · by Yuri Kageyama · June 29, 2021

This is why the Japanese courts have such a high conviction rate. They do not go to trial until the defendant is willing to apologize and show remorse. One of our NCOs spent about 20 days in a Japanese prison after he was apprehended drunk and damaging a local police chief's car (with the chief's daughter and boyfriend in the car while it happened about 4am - it took 3 Marine MPs and a handful of Japanese policemen to subdue him). Despite us making restitution and apologies for his actions and he himself apologizing he spent the maximum time in jail because as the Japanese told us there was a recently leaked email in which a senior US military officer called the Okinawans "wimps and nuts" so he was being held as a "political pawn." When he was released the NCO told me that he was glad he had been through SERE training because he experienced many similar techniques.

 

5. Deep inside China’s perfect surveillance state

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 29, 2021

And China wants to export these capabilities. 

 

6.  Reading Between the Lines of the CCP’s Centennial Propaganda Blitz

thediplomat.com · by Sarah Cook · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “But these traditional exercises have been supplemented with new elements that seem aimed at saturating the public consciousness and people’s conversations, while reinforcing Xi’s position as the country’s paramount leader. A massive public education campaign focused on CCP history was launched in February. It included the release of 80 national propaganda slogans – including several with Xi at the center – a scale that the China Media Project described as “unprecedented in the reform era.”

Particular energy has been devoted to ensuring that the younger generations “inherit red genes.” For example, propaganda officials have launched 200 social media accounts designed to influence university students, and the party has developed various interactive educational materials like web portals, televised knowledge competitions, and animated shorts. A new history academy founded in 2019 has been posting punchy updates to Chinese social media platforms and using online marketing tactics alongside more staid academic-style publications. A hip-hop brand published a rap video in which 100 artists, including several high-profile performers, joined forces to tout the CCP’s accomplishments.

By infusing reminders of the CCP’s dominance into practically every facet of Chinese society and daily life, from history and culture to popular entertainment, the regime is advancing one of the central goals of these campaigns: to reinforce the perception that China as a nation is indistinguishable from the Chinese Communist Party.

 

7. Getting Out of Iran's Way

thedispatch.com · by Bradley Bowman

Excerpts: “The selection of Raisi—an ultra-hardline cleric responsible for the mass execution of dissidents—provides a timely reminder as to the nature of the regime in Tehran, the threat it represents, and the continued requirement for forward-positioned U.S. forces in the Middle East.

Raisi’s revolutionary resume stands out due to his participation in a four-person “death commission” that oversaw the execution of an estimated 5,000 political prisoners in the late 1980s. And the passage of time has apparently not encouraged any contrition from Raisi. During his first post-election press conference on Monday, Raisi was asked about his role in the mass murders. “I have always defended people’s rights,” he responded. “Human rights have been a pivotal point for me.”

That retort likely pleased Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As Iran’s “most important voter,” Khamenei sees elections as a way to squeeze the already narrow political spectrum in the country. A reported 592 candidates registered for the election, but only seven were approved to run by the Guardian Council, which vets candidates for public office and is loyal to Khamenei. Given his age, 82, Khamenei was eager to use the election to cement the hardline domination of Iran’s institutions and keep the country on its revolutionary trajectory even after his death.

...

Accordingly, as Biden implements his military withdrawal from Afghanistan, conditions there are unsurprisingly and tragically deteriorating quickly. As we saw in Iraq, don’t be surprised if American forces are forced to return to Afghanistan soon—perhaps even in a matter of months.

If the Biden administration brings a similar approach to the Islamic Republic of Iran and U.S. military posture in the Middle East more generally, don’t expect a better result. Ignoring the nature and objectives of the adversary, neglecting continued threats to core American interests in the Middle East, and failing to maintain a well-designed forward-based military posture there will simply leave Tehran increasingly unchecked as it sows terrorism around the region and targets Americans, Arabs, and Israelis.

Given the Islamic Republic of Iran’s consistent track record over the last four decades, the burden of proof clearly rests on anyone who suggests we will see a dramatic departure in the regime’s oppression of the Iranian people, instinctual hostility to America, and systematic support for terrorism.

If you doubt that argument, simply look at who the regime just picked as its president and what he said last week.

 

8. Report estimates major cyberattack could cost more than recovering from natural disasters

The Hill · by Maggie Miller · June 28, 2021

Excerpts: “The report calls on Congress to approve a national breach notification law to force companies to require companies hit by a cyberattack, regardless of whether customer data was impacted, to report the breach.

Lawmakers are looking at doing just that. A draft bill from Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.), Vice Chairman Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) includes language requiring federal agencies, federal contractors, and owners and operators of critical infrastructure to report cybersecurity incidents within 24 hours to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

Rubio told The Hill last week that the bill would likely be formally introduced “probably the first week” when the Senate returns from the July 4 recess.

 

9. ‘A Form of Brainwashing’: China Remakes Hong Kong

The New York Times · by Alexandra Stevenson · June 29, 2021

Authoritarian rule. China wants to export it. My summary of the Chinese strategy: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

 

10.  Re-Thinking the Strategic Approach to Asymmetrical Warfare

militarystrategymagazine.com · by Daniel Riggs · June 28, 2021

An interesting article that really focuses on the human domain to include discussion of the Asymmetric Warfare Group.

It reminds me that DOD seems to be jettisoning many organizations and projects that contribute to understanding the human domain which I would argue is most important within great power competition. We have disbanded the Asymmetric Warfare Group. We have ended funding for the University of Foreign and Cultural Studies at Fort Leavenworth. This includes ending the renowned Red Team Leaders Course (I have heard there is talk within the that the course can be replaced by a contract with the McChrystal Group). USASOC has cut funding for the Assessing Revolutionary and Insurgent Strategies project. Collectively this indicates a declining focus on the human domain.

 

11. More than Just Friends: The Strategic Advantage of Enduring Relationships

mwi.usma.edu · by Marshall McGurk · June 29, 2021

More perspective on the human domain. We must build, sustain, and advance our relationships with friends, partners, and allies.

My personal experience with IMET in 1985 is illustrative. I met Captain Alexander Yano from the Philippines there. We became friends. His mentor was then Captain Joe Votel. Years later I met him in the Philippines when conducting Special Forces training and when we deployed to Mindanao in 2001 just after 9-11 for our our initial assessment (TCAV) he was waiting for us as we got off the rap ofhe MC-130 as he was Commander of Task Force Zamboanga. He would always ask me what Joe Votel was doing (at 9-11 he was commanding the 75th Ranger Regiment). When I returned later as the commander of the JSOTF he was the Army Chief and went on to become the Chief of the Philippine Armed Forces. Our relationship was very helpful in achieving our objectives.

Conclusion: “Without establishing personal, institutional, and programmatic relationships with strategic partners, the United States is at risk of continuing the costly boom-and-bust cycle of American investments in blood and treasure. Decision makers will be left without on-the-ground information from advisors and trainers. Even worse, without relationships in place, the United States will not be able to call upon friends or provide an agile response when crises or conflicts occur. The return on investment is worth it. To paraphrase SOF Truth #4, quality relationships cannot be created after emergencies occur. The best time to establish relationships with strategic partners and their military leaders was twenty years ago. The second-best time is now.

 

12. Sullivan Becomes First Woman to Command an SFAB Battalion

army.mil

The commander has had an impressive career and is one of the few commanders who have the opportunity for a second battalion command. That has been traditionally limited to the Ranger Battalions for a second command.

Excerpt: “Sullivan is a graduate of the United States Military Academy and has served numerous operational deployments with the 82nd Airborne Division, 101st Airborne and Combined Joint Special Operations Task-Force Afghanistan. She has also completed the U.S. Army's School of Advanced Military Studies program, in addition to completing airborne and jumpmaster training.

 

13. Analysis | Biden’s lose-lose game in Afghanistan

The Washington Post · by Ishaan Tharoor · June 28, 2021

Excerpts: “But Biden’s decision to withdraw reflects a widespread strategic impatience with the U.S. mission. “We have provided the Afghan people the blood of thousands [of] our finest men and women, hundreds of billions of our citizens’ dollars, and nearly 20 years for the Afghan government to have gotten its house in order and forged a negotiated settlement with the insurgents,” wrote Daniel Davis, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who deployed twice to Afghanistan. “They have squandered that opportunity.”

Afghans may counter that the price they have paid in blood is far steeper — and that heavy-handed U.S. military action has, on numerous occasions, added to the civilian toll. What is clear is that the United States is a party to cycles of conflict in the war-ravaged country that long predated 9/11 and will continue after the United States withdraws its main troop presence. The Biden administration will push for a negotiated peace between Ghani’s government and the Taliban, but diplomatic efforts remain stalled as the Taliban press their battlefield advantage. A diverse set of regional powers — including China, Pakistan, India and Russia — may all variously attempt to help broker some sort of reconciliation between the ultraconservative Taliban and the Afghan government.

 

14. Italy Says Its Relations With U.S. Far More Important Than With China

US News and World Reports

You do not read something like this very often.

 

15. A Confused Biden Team Risks Losing Southeast Asia

Foreign Policy · by James Crabtree · June 27, 2021

Obviously not a good sign.

Excerpts: “The region should matter in Washington. It contains two U.S. allies: the Philippines and Thailand. There are other major partners too, including Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam. Yet economic ties in all these countries have shifted toward China as of late. Closer diplomatic ties are likely to follow in many cases, absent concerted U.S. action. Few regional policymakers relish a possible future under China’s sway and mostly want to maintain a balance between the two superpowers—which means they want the United States to stay closely engaged in regional affairs. But it is for precisely this reason that Southeast Asia is so attuned to signs of distraction or muddled thinking in Washington.

Blinken’s technical snafu hardly helped. Beyond the show of sheer incompetence, the fact that Blinken was skipping the ASEAN meeting to head to Israel only acted as a reminder that U.S. commitments elsewhere distract attention from Asia. Despite more talk of a new focus on the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. Defense Department also moved its only aircraft carrier in the western Pacific region last month back to support U.S. troops leaving Afghanistan, sending an equally confusing signal. Individual countries have similar stories, including Indonesia, the region’s largest economy. Its foreign minister, Retno Marsudi, recently headed to the United States for a United Nations meeting on Palestine. While there, she failed to secure a meeting with Blinken, causing embarrassment in Jakarta.

The first and most obvious problem: Washington lacks an economic agenda for the region.

 

16. 1 truth and 3 lies about Critical Race Theory

popular.info · by Judd Legum

Obviously an extremely controversial and politically sensitive topic. But this article is a useful explainer.

 

17.  Democracies Don’t Try to Make Everyone Agree

The Atlantic · by Anne Applebaum · June 28, 2021

The subtitle says it all.

Conclusion (with which i concur): “But to maintain that flexibility, a liberal-democratic society absolutely requires that its citizens experience a liberal education, one that teaches students, scholars, readers, and voters to keep looking at books, history, society, and politics from different points of view. If one of our two great political parties no longer believes in this principle—and if some of our scholars don’t either—then how much longer can we expect our democracy to last?

 

--------------

 

"Nothing is impossible, the word itself says, “I’m possible!”" - Audrey Hepburn

 

The ROK Army Special Warfare Command motto: 안 되면 되게 하라 (English: Make the Impossible Possible)  

 

"The majority of people are timid by nature, and that is why they constantly exaggerate danger. all influences on the military leader, therefore, combine to give him a false impression of his opponent's strength, and from this arises a new source of indecision."

- Clausewitz

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. South Korea sends troops, destroyer to US-Australia military exercise for first time

2. U.S. House bill could restrict troop drawdown to 22,000

3.  Outgoing USFK commander vows to continue support for alliance

4. World needs global Korea

5. Can Biden Solve the North Korea Puzzle?

6. Learning lessons from Israel, South Korea is developing its own 'Iron Dome' to defend itself against the North's artillery

7. South Korea police investigating treason charges against president

8. North Korea calls attention to new beachside 'holiday camp'

9. K-drama takes a dark turn

10. Is North Korea Inching Closer to Instability?

11. Unprepared war (Korea)

12. Elderly members of Socialist Women's Union mobilized to take part in farm work

13. N. Korea builds apartments on site for late founder's house

14. UN provided $5.9m to North Korea to tackle food shortages

15. North Korea rails against women using nannies to take care of their children

16. Demographics and the Future of South Korea

 

Special FDD Korea Analysis

FDD · by David Maxwell and Mathew Ha

Previous Trend: Positive

The Biden administration’s decision to maintain all North Korea sanctions reinforces Washington’s comprehensive policy toward Pyongyang, which entails the implementation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions; the dismantlement of North Korea’s missile and nuclear arsenals; accountability for human rights; and halting Pyongyang’s global illicit activities, malicious cyber operations, and proliferation.  (All analysis at the link)

 

1. South Korea sends troops, destroyer to US-Australia military exercise for first time

SCMP · by Park Chan-kyong · June 28, 2021

Not mentioned in these articles about ROK participation in Talisman Sabre is that the ROK is also participating in the exercise Sea Breeze 21 which is taking place in the Black Sea. Given the location and the political situation with Russia I think it is also important to recognize the ROK participation there as well. Despite the concern with China (and the revisionist powers in general) it seems obvious that the ROK is aligning with like minded democracies around the world and is willing to demonstrate that alignment with action.

Sea Breeze 21 begins in the Black Sea after Russia threatens to fire on ‘intruding’ warships

 

2. U.S. House bill could restrict troop drawdown to 22,000

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim · June 29, 2021

This caught me off guard and has me scratching my head. I believe the 22,000 number had been in an NDAA from a few years back. Is it perhaps a cut and paste mistake by the bill writers? Or is this intended to provide DOD with some flexibility that might be necessary to support the outcome of the global force policy review? Did DOD ask for this number? Do we intend to reduce troops on the Korean peninsula? I have heard no discussion of that (of course I would not if those discussions are classified). Does this provide flexibility to withdraw the Aviation brigade if it can no longer conduct sufficient training to ensure its air crews remain qualified and meet certification standards?

 

3.  Outgoing USFK commander vows to continue support for alliance

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 29, 2021

We have a history of former commanders remaining engaged to assist in sustaining the strength of the alliance. I hope General Abrams will continue that tradition.

 

4. World needs global Korea

The Korea Times · by Song Kyung-jin · June 29, 2021

A critical analysis of ROK participation in the G7 and its policies (or lack of).

The first sentence is very wise (even if it should be a BFO -blinding flash of the obvious): “Foreign policy becomes domestic policy only when it is presented with the right background, direction and information.”

Conclusion: “Absence of consistent policy stance is already wreaking havoc on Korea's credibility and integrity with confusing messages. A signatory Korea is expected to remain committed to the "Open Societies Statement" values, including human rights, freedom and democratic values. President Moon Jae-in's recent interview with Time magazine in which he assessed Kim Jong-un as "very honest … very enthusiastic [and] one with strong determination" who has "a good idea of what is going on around the world" yet again surprised many at home and abroad. It did not take long for other democracies and like-minded countries to become perplexed with Korea's lack of interest in cooperation with regards to the Indo-Pacific, shying away from its commitment in Cornwall.

Korea with its strategic importance and economic capacity is called to become more engaged in global affairs ensuring the democratic values and the rules-based international order than it has for some time. The intensifying U.S.-China rivalry and the disappointing performance of the G20 may likely give way to the G7 for a brief time. But the U.S.-China rivalry means not only U.S.-China competition but also U.S.-China cooperation. Also, the upcoming G20 summit hosted by Italy will mark a watershed in making the G20 still a relevant forum for global cooperation. Korea must give some hard thought to how to make effective contributions to revitalizing the G20, revamping global trade out of the doldrums, tackling the COVID-19 pandemic and building a dynamic global and regional infrastructure architecture, for instance.

The world needs a more global Korea than ever before, not a retreating Korea. Delivering its commitments, proposing a relevant agenda and making it a domestic one with solid support from the public will be the backbone of a global Korea.

 

5.  Can Biden Solve the North Korea Puzzle?

Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer · June 28, 2021

As I will continue to beat the drum - the Biden policy offers Kim the chance to act as a responsible member of the international community. It is up to him to take advantage of the opportunity.

But north Korea is not a puzzle. I am confident the Biden administration has a realistic understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and is prepared to deal with it as it really is and not as it wishes it to be. It will act in good faith to give Kim the opportunity to negotiate and change but it will not be duped by Kim's long con, political warfare and blackmail diplomacy.

 

6. Learning lessons from Israel, South Korea is developing its own 'Iron Dome' to defend itself against the North's artillery

insider.com · by Cheryl Teh

 

7. South Korea police investigating treason charges against president

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim

I have seen no other reporting on this in the Korean media. I was told by a friend these allegations were investigated and found not credible.

South Korea police investigating treason charges against president

 

8. North Korea calls attention to new beachside 'holiday camp'

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim

In the midst of COVID, the failed economy, and the massive suffering of the Korean people, this is what the regime focuses on.

I used to joke with my soldiers when we were reviewing plans for operations in north Korea. I would say that the priority was to secure a certain target because I planned to establish it as my retirement villa. I will have to rethink that and add this site to the target list.

 

9. K-drama takes a dark turn

lowyinstitute.org · by Nicole de Souza

More on Kim Jong-un's war on K-Drama and outside information and influence. 

 

10. Is North Korea Inching Closer to Instability?

The National Interest · by Chiew-Ping Hoo · June 28, 2021

Many authors are focusing on the possibility of regime instability.  It is good to see. Will decision makers heed the warning or fall back on the fact the north has demonstrated an unbelievable resilience and tolerance for pain for the past few decades and since it is not destabilized and collapse it may never do so.

As SunTzu said: "Never assume the enemy will not collapse. Make yourself invincible." Our north Korean corollary was: "Never assume the north will not become unstable and the regime will not collapse. Instead prepare your contingency plans." (not as pithy as Sun Tzu, I know)

 

11. Unprepared war (Korea)

donga.com · June 29, 2021

A historical reminder. Not the north's infiltration techniques. This is not an obsolete tactic.

 

12. Elderly members of Socialist Women's Union mobilized to take part in farm work

 dailynk.com · June 28, 2021

More on the brutal and inhumane nature of the Kim family regime. It is also an indicator of desperation.

 

13.  N. Korea builds apartments on site for late founder's house

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 29, 2021

An interesting development, I cannot yet figure out what this might mean. It will be interesting to see how the propaganda on this develops.

 

14.  UN provided $5.9m to North Korea to tackle food shortages

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · June 29, 2021

And do we have any idea of the effects of this aid?  

 

15. North Korea rails against women using nannies to take care of their children

dailynk.com · June 29, 2021

Would you leave your children at such facilities in these conditions?

The source said that the country’s leaders believe that mothers refuse to leave their children at daycare facilities because of “bad conditions,” namely that such places are “unhygienic, [too] cold, or [too] humid.” According to him, party officials harshly criticized this state of affairs as reflecting the “views held by local party managers toward [North Korea’s] future generations and the [North Korean] people.”

 

16. Demographics and the Future of South Korea

carnegieendowment.org · by Chung Min Lee, Kathryn Botto

A timely and important report.

You can access each of the topics at this link. 

 

----------------

 

"Nothing is impossible, the word itself says, “I’m possible!”" - Audrey Hepburn

 

The ROK Army Special Warfare Command motto: 안 되면 되게 하라 (English: Make the Impossible Possible)  

 

"The majority of people are timid by nature, and that is why they constantly exaggerate danger. all influences on the military leader, therefore, combine to give him a false impression of his opponent's strength, and from this arises a new source of indecision."

- Clausewitz

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1. U.S. targets Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Syria strikes

2. U.S. Conducts Airstrikes in Syria and Iraq Against Iranian-Backed Militias

3. With Reagan's Arrival, 2 US Carriers Are Now Supporting Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal

4. Ghani: Afghanistan having '1861 moment' amid U.S. troop withdrawal

5. Crossing the Red Line: Behind China’s Takeover of Hong Kong

6. Digital Authoritarianism is a National Security Threat, Pentagon Cyber Leader Says

7. US remains the world’s dominant power in cyberspace but China is catching up, report says

8. Portable Nuclear Reactor Program Sparks Controversy

9. A Measure Short of War: The Return of Great-Power Subversion

10. At age one hundred, Chinese Communist Party is both the authoritarian world champion—and vulnerable

11. Solving the Mystery of Havana Syndrome

12. Toning down China’s wolf warriors outrages patriots

13. U.S. and Taiwan Set Date to Revive Trade and Investment Talks

14. 'Defend Forward': What the CIA has done since 1947

15. Special Operations News Update - Monday, June 28, 2021 | SOF News

16. We’re Not Ready for Another Pandemic

17. FDD | New FDD Report Warns of Devastating Costs of Cyberattacks on Private Sector

 

1. U.S. targets Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Syria strikes

The Washington Post · by Alex HortonJune 28, 2021 · June 28, 2021

Excerpts: “The Pentagon has monitored the escalation of small-drone warfare after the Islamic State flew terrifying sorties of hobbyist drone aircraft against Iraqi troops in the battle to retake territory from the group.

Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, the top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, told reporters on a Syria trip last month that the Pentagon is looking for ways to cut command-and-control links between a drone and its operator, improve radar sensors to quickly identify the threat as it approaches and find effective ways to bring down the aircraft.

“We’re open to all kinds of things,” he said, according to the Associated Press. “Still, I don’t think we’re where we want to be.”

The Biden administration in February ordered airstrikes against Iranian proxies in Syria, killing an undisclosed number of militants.

 

2. U.S. Conducts Airstrikes in Syria and Iraq Against Iranian-Backed Militias

WSJ · by Michael R. Gordon

Excerpt: “‘The United States took necessary, appropriate, and deliberate action designed to limit the risk of escalation...’ ”

— Pentagon spokesman John Kirby

​I am reminded of this quote:

 

​"​It’s limited war for Americans, and total war for those fighting Americans. The United States has more power; its foes have more willpower.​"​ 

​-Dominic Tierney

 

3. With Reagan's Arrival, 2 US Carriers Are Now Supporting Afghanistan Troop Withdrawal

military.com · by Konstantin Toropin · June 25, 2021

 

4. Ghani: Afghanistan having '1861 moment' amid U.S. troop withdrawal

Politico · June 25, 2021

An ominous remark, I guess civil war is on the horizon. But rather than one faction seceding both factions seek to dominate.

 

5. Crossing the Red Line: Behind China’s Takeover of Hong Kong

The New York Times · by Chris Buckley, Vivian Wang and Austin Ramzy · June 28, 2021

Whose red line?

If it was years in the making and we did not see the indications and warnings I wonder if that was because Hong Kong was not a priority for intelligence collection. Everything cannot be a priority and we have to allocate our finite resources to the most important potential threats. Some will chalk this up to an intelligence failure but is that really the case?

Are there any lessons here that apply to Taiwan? Are the situations and conditions similar or different? 

And of course the big question: What else are we missing?

 

6. Digital Authoritarianism is a National Security Threat, Pentagon Cyber Leader Says

defenseone.com · by Mila Jasper

Excerpts: “Digital authoritarianism is a term that describes regimes that use technology to control and repress their populations. While China is certainly not the only purveyor of digital authoritarianism, it is certainly the largest.

At Defense One’s Tech Summit event Thursday, Mieke Eoyang, deputy assistant defense secretary for cyber policy, explained how digital authoritarianism poses a threat to national security, and what the Defense Department can do about it. Eoyang described digital authoritarianism as contrary to the values those at DOD are sworn to defend.

It "really poses a national security challenge to us in the United States. It closes space. It makes it more dangerous for Americans who may choose to speak out against what they see as human rights abuses in other countries,” Eoyang said.

“And so that, you know, that goes against our core values inside the U.S., and also it represents a…competitive challenge to U.S. technology companies when we see countries like China exporting this technology all around the world. With their technology it’s not just neutral, it does come with the ability to engage in this kind of digital repression,” she said. “So we see this as a challenge to the department, our operations and our values.”

 

7. US remains the world’s dominant power in cyberspace but China is catching up, report says

SCMP · by Dewey Sim · June 28, 2021

Excerpt: “The main reason [for US superiority] is the relative standing of the two nations’ digital economies, where the US remains far advanced despite China’s digital progress,” said Austin, a senior fellow with IISS.”

 

8. Portable Nuclear Reactor Program Sparks Controversy

nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Mandy Mayfield · June 28, 2021

Excerpts: “Nuclear power is “orders of magnitude more energy dense than any other known technology,” Waksman told National Defense. “That allows the possibility to provide resilient power for years and years, without needing to refuel. … Refueling can be a real burden in remote areas.”

The Strategic Capabilities Office sees three main applications for the initial capability, Waksman noted.

“When we talk about the low hanging fruit for early applications for this, [the first] is remote locations — think the Arctic where there is a need for large amounts of power — but it’s hard to get power there now,” he said.

Another is what is referred to as the “strategic support area,’” which provides power for equipment that is mission essential, such as radar systems, he said.

The third key application for a portable reactor is its ability to aid in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, Waksman said.

Over the past few years there have been a number of incidents throughout the United States including hurricanes and cold snaps that have caused massive power outages over large areas.

 

9. A Measure Short of War: The Return of Great-Power Subversion

Foreign Affairs · by Jill Kastner and William C. Wohlforth · June 24, 2021

Subversion is an essential element of political warfare. 

Excerpts: “Subversion can be classified into three levels of severity. The first level involves propaganda, a tactic as old as speech itself. In 1570, when Pope Pius V issued his papal bull declaring Queen Elizabeth I a heretic and calling on good English Catholics to remove her from the throne, he was engaging in subversive propaganda. The same was true during the Cold War when Radio Liberty beamed anticommunist broadcasts into the Soviet Union. Level 1 subversion can entail one state’s open endorsement of opposition candidates or parties in another country’s election, as when Stalin publicly backed the third-party candidacy of Henry Wallace in his run against U.S. President Harry Truman in 1948.

...

At all three levels, the goals of subversion can vary. Subversive activities may be used to weaken a target by sowing internal discord so that it is distracted from pursuing its interests on some other front. This is what Elizabeth I was doing when she funded mercenaries to aid Dutch Protestant rebels—she hoped Spain would become consumed with the uprising and shelve its plans to restore Catholicism in England by securing her overthrow—and what Russia is attempting today with its support for populist nationalist movements in Western democracies. Alternatively, a country may intend to change another country’s foreign policy by secretly supporting one side of a domestic debate. During the Cold War, Moscow provided, through its front organizations, logistical, organizational, and financial support to the peace movement in the West. More recently, it may have interfered in the 2016 Brexit referendum, encouraging the British public to vote to leave the EU.

Sometimes, subversion has a maximalist goal: changing the nature of the regime itself. In 1875, Bismarck engineered a war scare, insinuating that Germany was about to launch a preventive attack against France. His goal was to frighten French voters away from choosing conservative monarchists, whose victory seemed to promise a more formidable great-power competitor across the Rhine. The gambit worked. The French press soon took to calling Bismarck “the Great Elector of France.”handwringing and teeth gnashing. In recent years, deepfakes—fake video clips that look real—have raised the prospect of frighteningly convincing disinformation. But states will find a way to push back, perhaps harnessing the very artificial intelligence used to create deepfakes as a tool for their destruction.

...

The history of subversion should also offer reason to relax about new technologies. Someday, no doubt, a subverter will wield a new technology that yet again sets alarm bells ringing. From the printing press to radio, from the mimeograph machine to the Internet, technological change has invariably opened up new avenues for manipulation and subversion—and set off renewed handwringing and teeth gnashing. In recent years, deepfakes—fake video clips that look real—have raised the prospect of frighteningly convincing disinformation. But states will find a way to push back, perhaps harnessing the very artificial intelligence used to create deepfakes as a tool for their destruction.

States will always suffer from internal vulnerabilities that can be exploited by outside actors.

Those worried about subversion should also remember that politics and statecraft can still keep it under control. Subversion is the continuation of great-power rivalry by other means, and the nature of the emerging rivalries between the United States and both China and Russia shows a reassuring need for a great deal of cooperation. On climate change, arms control, and nuclear proliferation, the great powers will be forced to work together. Much of what China and Russia want to achieve on the world stage will require bargaining with the United States and its allies. And both Beijing and Moscow surely realize that if they rely on subversion to the point where their trustworthiness is destroyed, the possibility of dealmaking will disappear. The old rules of cost-benefit calculation will still apply, preventing subversion from running rampant.

And I would add with absolutely no apologies to Leon Trotsky: America may not be interested in irregular, unconventional, and political warfare but​they are being practiced around the world by those who are interested in them – namely the revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations.

​And although the 2017 National Security Strategy is no long​er in effect we should still heed these wise words: "A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

 

10. At age one hundred, Chinese Communist Party is both the authoritarian world champion—and vulnerable

atlanticcouncil.org · June 27, 2021

Only 100? So young and immature. (note attempt at sarcasm)

Hmmm.... so can this be exploited?

It must be said this bluntly: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which turns one hundred this week, represents history’s most successful authoritarians.

So, why does Chinese President Xi Jinping seem so uneasy?

...

Xi likely has a window of only about a decade before his country’s demographic decline, its structural economic downturn, and inevitable domestic upheavals threaten to reduce the historic possibility currently presented to him by his country’s technological advance, its geopolitical gains, and his own current hold on power.

This man in a hurry sees an inflection point to be seized, but only if he acts with a quick, decisive purposefulness and, where necessary, ruthlessness.

And under Xi, China isn’t only sprinting to seize a window of opportunity. Xi, Blanchette writes, at the same time has put China “in a race to determine if its many strengths can outstrip the pathologies that Xi himself has introduced into the system.”

In short, the test is whether authoritarianism’s most compelling success story can overcome its fundamental failings.

 

11. Solving the Mystery of Havana Syndrome

Psychology Today · by Eric Haseltine  · June 23, 2021

Perhaps we could figure this out and defend our people.

Excerpts: “ If my conclusions about the source of the Havana syndrome are correct, then we could start to detect the dangerous RF signals by building a special receiver that, like the Russian espionage gear described in my book, filters out innocent ghost signals to reveal the malicious signals underneath. Then, once detected, conventional direction-finding gear might pinpoint the source of the transmissions and lead us to their operators.

Notice I just said “start to detect” and “might pinpoint.” The reason for those equivocations is that Russian intelligence tradecraft (for example) doesn’t rely on just one “hide” (such as masking with ghost signals), but layers many “hides” on top of each other to make it extraordinarily difficult for victims of their espionage to detect attacks.

 

12. Toning down China’s wolf warriors outrages patriots

asiatimes.com · by Jing Xuan Teng · June 28, 2021

Excerpts: “Beijing has often encouraged nationalism when convenient, including online campaigns that flared this year for boycotts of foreign clothing brands that made statements about avoiding cotton from China’s Xinjiang, due to allegations of forced labor.

But even some of China’s most strident apologists have admitted that toned-down rhetoric would be more fitting for the major-power status the country claims.

Hu Xijin, editor of the nationalist tabloid Global Times, wrote last month that government social media accounts should “hold high the banner of humanitarianism” after a Communist Party-run Weibo account posted a mocking comparison between a Chinese rocket launch and the cremation of Covid-19 victims in India.

“Sometimes this ‘wolf warrior’ sentiment can get out of hand,” Jonathan Hassid, a professor of political science at Iowa State University told AFP.

 

13. U.S. and Taiwan Set Date to Revive Trade and Investment Talks

WSJ · by Chao Deng

Excerpts: “Last week, Beijing sent 28 military aircraft into airspace near Taiwan—the largest number of such sorties reported in a single day—after the Group of Seven leaders issued a communiqué expressing a unified stance on the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

The U.S. is Taiwan’s second-largest trading partner. Taiwan is the world’s biggest supplier of advanced semiconductors, exporting billions of dollars worth in chips and computer and telecommunications equipment to the U.S. last year.

The U.S. hasn’t had an embassy in Taiwan since it agreed to downgrade ties with Taipei more than 40 years ago, a condition set by Beijing for formal diplomatic relations. It set up a private company staffed with diplomats to handle relations with the island instead.

 

14. 'Defend Forward': What the CIA has done since 1947

Washington Examiner · by Marc Polymeropoulos · June 28, 2021

Of course it is prohibited from acting on US soil so it must defend forward (Apologies for the snarky  comment).

Interesting conclusion: “The Biden administration is staffed by seasoned national security professionals, like the president himself. I am hoping they embrace the "Defend Forward” concept. As of now, there are mixed signals. The total Afghan withdrawal is a colossal mistake. It is the antithesis of this strategy. Yet, our counter-Russia policy seems to have "Defend Forward" as a guiding principle. It includes offensive cyberactivity. It involves exposing Russian malfeasance globally and helping our allies on the front lines in Europe and Eurasia. Kudos to the administration, and I hope they do more to ensure that Russia is contained. But on Afghanistan, with the stakes so high, why take a knee and go home?

 

15. Special Operations News Update - Monday, June 28, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · June 28, 2021

 

16. We’re Not Ready for Another Pandemic

defenseone.com · by The Atlantic

And I would ask: Can we ever be ready? Even sufficiently ready?

 

17. FDD | New FDD Report Warns of Devastating Costs of Cyberattacks on Private Sector

fdd.org · June 28, 2021

The PDF of the report can be downloaded here: 

Excerpts: “The United States witnessed a sample of the real-world effects of cyberattacks with the ransomware attacks on Colonial Pipeline and meat producer JBS, but if a ransomware or other type of attack disrupts electricity generation or transmission, the economic devastation could surpass that of Hurricane Katrina, the authors warn. This estimate is derived from Intangic’s actuarial model, which has accurately predicted the financial and economic impact of business disruptions from cyberattacks.

Nolan and Fixler explain that the market to-date has failed to incentivize cybersecurity investments because neither regulators nor investors can measure “objectively and transparently whether companies are properly managing digital technology and related risks.” Except in limited cases, companies are not required to disclose cyber breaches or vulnerabilities that directly affect their financial health and business operations.

 

------------

"Either write something worth reading or do something worth writing." 

- Benjamin Franklin

 

"No one starts a war-or rather, no one in his senses ought to do so-without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it."

-Clausewitz

 

“Remind me to write a popular article on the compulsive reading of news. The theme will be that most neuroses and some psychoses can be traced to the unnecessary and unhealthy habit of daily walling in the troubles and sins of five billion strangers. The title is ‘Gossip Unlimited’ - no, make that ‘Gossip Gone wild.’”

-Robert Heinlein - Stranger In A Strange land

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1. N.Korean Propaganda Harnesses Kim Jong-un's Weight Loss

2. North Korean regime seeks sympathy for ‘thin’ Kim

3. Korean Interests in Peace and Stability Around the Taiwan Strait

4. North Koreans Reject Korean War Propaganda Claiming South Struck First

5. North Korea slams the door on dialogue — for now

6. Kim’s ‘normal state’ vision still far off

7. Korea's second amphibious assault ship commissioned

8. Korean, US progressive Christian groups call for peace treaty, end to Korean War

9. Soon-to-be-discharged North Korean soldiers reassigned as workers in Komdok mines

10. Unification ministry keeping eye on whether N.K. sends congratulatory delegation to China

11. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Economic difficulties have shaken public sentiment, prompting orders to strengthen security at military armouries and security agencies.

12. N. Korean paper warns officials against corruption, bureaucracy

13. South Korea sends troops, destroyer to US-Australia military exercise for first time

14. North Koreans 'heartbroken' by Kim's purported weight loss, Pyongyang resident tells state media

15. Is North Korea’s Byungjin Policy in Crisis?

16. S. Korea ups 2021 growth outlook to 4.2 pct

17. S. Korea names new Air Force commander after death of sexually abused soldier

18. Factbox-North Korea's history of secrecy over leaders' health

19. S.Korea to develop 'Iron Dome'-style defence system to counter North's artillery

20. Researching North Korea: Sources, Methods, and Pitfalls 

 

1. N.Korean Propaganda Harnesses Kim Jong-un's Weight Loss

english.chosun.com · June 28, 2021

Perhaps they can book him for some weight watcher's commercials to generate more revenue for the royal court economy.

But I guess he still has a ways to go.

Excerpt: “In reality Kim is still vastly obese. But at a Workers Party meeting in mid-June, his first public appearance in about a month, he was visibly less so than before. His cheeks were less puffed and he seemed to have tightened his watch strap by a notch since March.

 

2. North Korean regime seeks sympathy for ‘thin’ Kim

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · June 28, 2021

"Thin Kim." We may have to adopt that.

Important comments here. We need to be wary and watchful (and dust off contingency plans): “Currently, “security at military armories, security facilities and idols [statues] of the Kim Jong Un family has recently been greatly strengthened,” reports Osaka-based AsiaPress, which gets news from undercover reporters inside the country who use smuggled Chinese cellphones.

The increased security is said to have been undertaken “due to the increasing discontent caused by the worsening of people’s lives due to the economic turmoil.” The same publication has reported on actual starvation in parts of the country recently.

But the emphasis in the current case on Kim Jong Un’s health may be significant. If authorities persist in calling attention to the issue, what shall we assume? In what circumstances would that be something the propagandists would see an advantage in talking about?

One fairly likely possibility, of course, is that Kim Jong Un really has been ill and the authorities feel the need to persuade people to excuse him from maintaining a full workload – or even to prepare the population for his death. Party regulations have in fact been changed recently to permit naming someone else as number two.

 

3. Korean Interests in Peace and Stability Around the Taiwan Strait

keia.org · by Terrence Matsuo · June 25, 2021

My comments, among others, are in the article.

 

4. North Koreans Reject Korean War Propaganda Claiming South Struck First

rfa.org · by Hyemin Son

I am skeptical but this is an interesting report.

But perhaps we could get others in the South and the US to stop blaming the alliance for the war too!

This is also very interesting in that those close to each will talk about this: “Despite this obvious propaganda, most people know the actual history. Any factory worker who has heard a foreign broadcast about the Korean War knows full well that it wasn’t South Korea that attacked first. We actually prepared for the war and started it. They have been repeating the narrative that the war was started by provocations from the United States and South Korea,” said the source.

According to the source, people who are close to each other often talk about the actual history of the Korean War whenever the anniversary draws near.

“They’ll say, ‘If South Korea had started it, the South Korean army could have occupied Pyongyang within three days. How is it possible that the Korean People’s Army were able to take Seoul in three days instead?’” said the source.

“They all know that the propaganda trotted out by the authorities on war history is inconsistent historical distortion,” the source said.

 

5. North Korea slams the door on dialogue — for now

The Hill · by Bruce Klingner · June 25, 2021

The operative words: "for now." Kim will be back under two conditions. He is either desperate and is under so much internal pressure he must negotiate. Or he has set the conditions to his advantage and believes he can exploit the ROK and US.

 

6. Kim’s ‘normal state’ vision still far off

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · June 28, 2021

Tighten his grip but create an image of a "normal state." In whose eyes? Certainly the international community does and never will view north Korea as a normal state as long as the Kim family regime remains in power and there is no change to its nature, objectives, and strategy. To be a normal state would require Kim to act as a responsible member of the international community. However, this would require drastic changes to everything from eliminating his nuclear program to ceasing the horrendous human rights abuses and crimes against humanity. A normal state? I think not. No amount of propaganda will alter the view of objective observers.

 

7. Korea's second amphibious assault ship commissioned

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee and Park Yong-Han · June 28, 2021

One more and they will have a nascent capability (three to make one)

 

8. Korean, US progressive Christian groups call for peace treaty, end to Korean War

The Korea Times · June 28, 2021

Sigh... the 21 May Summit a "disappointment?" And they hold some naive views about a peace treaty as well as lifting sanctions. Why do these organizations never call out Kim Jong-un for his decision that causes the suffering of the Korean people. It is not sanctions that are causing such suffering.

 

9. Soon-to-be-discharged North Korean soldiers reassigned as workers in Komdok mines

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · June 28, 2021

From conscription to slave laborers.

 

10. Unification ministry keeping eye on whether N.K. sends congratulatory delegation to China

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 28, 2021

A note perhaps, A delegation to Beijing? Probably not. It would seem the regime remains too concerned with the spread of COVID.

 

11. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Economic difficulties have shaken public sentiment, prompting orders to strengthen security at military armouries and security agencies.

asiapress.org

An indicator? Does the regime fear instability? Does the regime fear collective action? Are we prepared?

Excerpt: “The person who provided this information to our reporting partner was a police official, who explained the reason for the increased security: “There is a possibility that anti-party groups will intensify their activities as the economic situation and people's lives become more complex.”

 

12. N. Korean paper warns officials against corruption, bureaucracy

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 28, 2021

And another potential indicator.

 

13. South Korea sends troops, destroyer to US-Australia military exercise for first time

SCMP · by June 28, 2021 · Park Chan-kyong

South Korea stepping up as a great middle power.

South Korea sends troops, destroyer to US-Australia military exercise for first time

• The Talisman Sabre war games are widely seen as sending a strong message to an increasingly assertive China
• South Korea’s participation is likely to raise eyebrows in Beijing but an analyst said China’s response would probably be muted

 

14. North Koreans 'heartbroken' by Kim's purported weight loss, Pyongyang resident tells state media

CNN · by Yoonjung Seo and Joshua Berlinger

Cry those crocodile tears for Kim Jong-un.

Two of my favorite photos here (Note the 2012 photo below - It looks like Kim might be getting back to his "fighting weight."):

 

15.  Is North Korea’s Byungjin Policy in Crisis?

The National Interest · by Grażyna Strnad · June 27, 2021

An interesting assessment from Poland.

 

Excerpt: “North Korea will likely remain stabilized due to the emerging regional dynamics that are unfolding. China is calculating the trajectory of the United States-China rivalry, caused by the renewed American critique of unfair Chinese trade practices, human rights violations, political repression of the Uyghurs and the citizens of Hong Kong, and continued military posturing in the South China Sea and against Taiwan. North Korea, even if the worst of political and economic outcomes come to fruition, will serve to distract the United States, giving China potential leverage. China will support North Korea out of its vested regional interests. Beyond that, North Korea's history of survival accompanied by other "arduous marches," points to the dictatorship of Kim Jong-un to remain in power, regardless of the success or failure of the Byungjin Policy.

 

16. S. Korea ups 2021 growth outlook to 4.2 pct

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · June 28, 2021

 

17. S. Korea names new Air Force commander after death of sexually abused soldier

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 28, 2021

 

18. Factbox-North Korea's history of secrecy over leaders' health

Reuters · by Josh Smith · June 28, 2021

We must always be skeptical of the reporting on Kim's health. On the other hand it is always possible something could happen. The question is if we learn today that Kim Jong-un has left us, what do we do now? What actions are we ready to take immediately when learning of his demise?

 

19. S.Korea to develop 'Iron Dome'-style defence system to counter North's artillery

Reuters · by Josh Smith

There is a lot more artillery in the Kaesong Heights than Hamas and Hezbollah have. But it is worth a try to improve South Korean defenses.

 

20.  Researching North Korea: Sources, Methods, and Pitfalls 

NKEF Policy and Research Paper Series 2021

A very useful document for Korea watchers and researchers.  

The 28 page paper can be downloaded in PDF here. Thanks to Yonho Kim and the authors for assembling this useful document.

 

---------------

 

"Either write something worth reading or do something worth writing." 

- Benjamin Franklin

 

"No one starts a war-or rather, no one in his senses ought to do so-without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it."

-Clausewitz

 

“Remind me to write a popular article on the compulsive reading of news. The theme will be that most neuroses and some psychoses can be traced to the unnecessary and unhealthy habit of daily walling in the troubles and sins of five billion strangers. The title is ‘Gossip Unlimited’ - no, make that ‘Gossip Gone wild.’”

-Robert Heinlein - Stranger In A Strange land

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Explainer: The great spirit Chinese Communists draw strength from - Xinhua

2. Chinese surveillance firm builds influence in Washington, with help from former members of Congress

3. Emerging Biden doctrine and future of China dream

4. The Debt the U.S. Owes to My Afghan Interpreter—and Others

5. Attacks from lone terrorists in the US are more severe than those who are affiliated with groups.

6. The Myth of American Militarism

7. Even the Taliban are surprised at how fast they're advancing in Afghanistan

8. Biden Says Afghans Must ‘Decide Their Future’ as U.S. Troops Withdraw

9. Should I Hang Out With Someone Whose Political Views I Hate?

10. Dragon Man skull offers clues to human evolution

11. What a collapsed trial says about US claims of Chinese high-tech spying

12. The Misguided Continuity on Foreign Policy

13. Rebuke for the junta in Myanmar

14. Congress’s National Guard Quick Reaction Force: An Ill-Advised Military Requirement

15. Harriet Tubman honored as a Civil War spy

16. William Pitsenbarger: The commando who died so that others could live

17. Conceal or Reveal? Managing Clandestine Military Capabilities in Peacetime Competition

18. ‘At first I thought, this is crazy’: the real-life plan to use novels to predict the next war

 

1. Explainer: The great spirit Chinese Communists draw strength from - Xinhua

xinhuanet.com · June 27, 2021

Excerpt: “Not long after the founding of the PRC, Chinese People's Volunteers (CPV) entered the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to fight the War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea (1950-1953) at the request of the DPRK.

Despite a wide disparity of weaponry and equipment, the forces of China and the DPRK defeated their armed-to-the-teeth rivals in the face of overwhelming odds. They thereby shattered the myth of invincibility of the U.S. military.

 

2. Chinese surveillance firm builds influence in Washington, with help from former members of Congress

The Washington Post · by Drew Harwell · June 25, 2021

You would think these politicians would be black and blue from where people were touching them with 10 foot poles. Wouldn't this seem to be political and professional suicide (it seems Senator Boxer understood this)? If not then what does that say about us?

Excerpts: “Moffett will join former senator David Vitter (R-La.) in lobbying for a company racing to defend itself in Washington amid questions over its links to Chinese government surveillance and oppression. Another former senator, Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), registered to lobby for the company, but withdrew from that representation in January amid public criticism.

Earlier this month, the Biden administration banned Americans from investing in the company, citing its links to the Chinese military. Hikvision, whose largest shareholder is owned by the Chinese government, faces another critical threat from U.S. regulators who are considering whether to issue a nationwide ban on purchases of the firm’s equipment.

 

3. Emerging Biden doctrine and future of China dream

The Korea Times · by Yun Byung-se · June 27, 2021

A Korean view of the Biden Administration's foreign policy.

Excerpt: “It is the paradox of history that the world is on the threshold of a new Cold War and is becoming the victim of its own success. Which dream or scenario will ultimately come true? Pax Americana or the China Dream? Thucydides's Trap (a likely war) or "Kindleberger Trap" (of incapability to provide global public goods)? It will depend on how strategic competition will unfold in the coming years and decades. Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia, offers a good recipe for avoiding the war through managed strategic competition.

One big moment of truth will come sooner than later, when President Biden and President Xi are set to meet with each other probably at the G20 summit in October. But a wise counsel is in order, from John Lennon, "A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality."

 

4. The Debt the U.S. Owes to My Afghan Interpreter—and Others

WSJ · by Matt Watters

Excerpts: “During the Special Forces Qualification Course, Vietnam veterans showed us pictures of the Montagnards who’d fought alongside them and were never seen again. “They were the best allies we could have asked for,” an old Green Beret told me. “Never let this happen again.” Yet today, by following bureaucratic stipulations and casting aside those who never dreamed of doing the same to us, we are dangerously close to forgetting that lesson.

Shafo keeps the faith, but his wife worries for his safety. She is expecting their third child and fears her husband won’t be alive for the birth. “We have a moral commitment to those who helped us,” Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley has said.

We also have a national-security imperative. If the U.S. abandons those who served with such loyalty and conviction, why would anyone risk his life to help America again? Who will tell our soldiers which streets to avoid?

 

5. Attacks from lone terrorists in the US are more severe than those who are affiliated with groups.

blogs.lse.ac.uk · June 25, 2021

Excerpts: “Effectively estimating the threat of the lone actor is important to guiding policy decisions. Above all, our findings emphasize the need to scrutinize existing counterterrorism policies in their ability to detect and prevent lone-actor attacks. The traditional strategies for thwarting terrorist plots largely consist of intercepting communications between plotters and utilizing undercover officers and informants to obtain information. While these tactics may be effective for terrorists who are involved with groups, the very nature of lone-actor terrorism flies in the face of such strategies. Some scholars have even suggested that those who seek to engage in terrorism in the US prefer to work alone simply because they fear that involving someone in their plans may jeopardize the success of the plot.

However, many lone actors discuss their violent intentions with bystanders, including family, friends, or random strangers. As a result, the focus in recent years has shifted towards soliciting information directly from the public, with programs such as the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting (SAR) Initiative (NSI) establishing a system for gathering, analyzing, and investigating tips from the community. Programs like the NSI which use the general public as a resource for identifying suspicious behaviors may be useful in detecting and thwarting lone actor plots, but more research is needed to determine their effectiveness, especially for the online context. Nonetheless, policymakers should continue to utilize our increasingly robust understanding of lone actor terrorism to propose counterterrorism policies that are tailored to the nature of this threat.

 

6. The Myth of American Militarism

The National Interest · by Hal Brands · June 26, 2021

From two scholars who are among the nation's foremost thinkers on grand strategy.

Excerpts: “The key here is understanding that America has always had a checkered history fighting limited wars because those are the wars in which it has the most trouble translating its massive power into decisive results. U.S. interventions in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, and Mexico in the early twentieth century rarely left behind lasting stability. American intervention in Russia after World War I was a confused mess. During the Cold War, America achieved only a bloody, disillusioning stalemate in Korea. America’s first intervention in Lebanon, in 1958, was a comedy of errors; its second one, from 1982 to 1984, was a bloody tragedy. Vietnam was the costliest and most counterproductive limited war of all, in human and strategic terms alike.

The point is not that America never succeeds in military interventions. It is simply that intervention for limited aims is inherently a fraught business because the limit on aims leads to both a limit on means and a willingness to accept middling outcomes rather than wage total war in pursuit of total victory. In World War II, by contrast, the United States endured bloody setbacks that eclipse any of the “military failures” of the post-Cold War era, but the stakes were high enough that America stayed in the fight long enough to achieve ultimate victory

Conclusion: “The United States has a mixed record with the use of force, as one might well expect of this most demanding aspect of statecraft. Yet its choices over the past thirty years have been wiser, its restraint and selectivity have been greater, and the domestic blowback it has suffered has been smaller than many critics allege. There are cases, alas, where the use or threat of force will be necessary in the future. There will be instances when choosing not to intervene now forces policymakers to contemplate higher-cost military interventions later. In addressing these challenges, policymakers will need something better than the Magic Eight Ball of restraint, which always answers “my sources say no” when asked for guidance on hard choices. Prescription begins with diagnosis. Busting the myth of American militarism is the first step toward positioning America, intellectually and strategically, for success in a dangerous future.

 

7. Even the Taliban are surprised at how fast they're advancing in Afghanistan

NBC News · by Dan De Luce, Mushtaq Yusufzai and Saphora Smith · June 25, 2021

Video and graphics at the link:

Excerpts: “The Taliban's recent seizure of districts in three provinces — Wardak, Logar and Laghman — that surround Kabul signaled a potentially ominous sign for the government's staying power. If those provinces fall, then "the path to take Kabul is wide open," Roggio said.

The Afghan military's retreat has prompted a revival of former anti-Soviet, anti-Taliban militias, with Afghan President Ghani and other officials embracing the groups and calling for a united resistance against the Taliban. The call to arms for local militias seemed to underscore the Afghan government's perilous position, and carried the risk that the rival groups could plunge the country back into a wider, anarchic civil war like the one that raged in the 1990s.

The U.N. special envoy to Afghanistan, Deborah Lyons, told the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday that the Taliban appeared poised to seize provincial cities once U.S. and NATO forces leave, and painted a bleak picture. "The possible slide toward dire scenarios is undeniable," she said.

 

8. Biden Says Afghans Must ‘Decide Their Future’ as U.S. Troops Withdraw

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · June 25, 2021

I wonder what would have happened in December of 2001 when Kabul was liberated if someone had said the same works that are in the title of this piece? "Afghanistan, your future is up to you."

 

9. Should I Hang Out With Someone Whose Political Views I Hate?

The New York Times · by Kwame Anthony Appiah · June 23, 2021

My question: how can one profess to love our country when one hates so many people who live in it? Scalia and Ginsberg are dead and there seems to be no one living up to their ideals. Or even trying. By that I mean their ideals of civil discourse and even affection for each other despite their opposing political views.

"I attack ideas. I don't attack people. And some very good people have some very bad ideas. And if you can't separate the two, you gotta get another day job. You don't want to be a judge. At least not a judge on a multi-member panel.” - Antonin Scalia

Excerpt: “Identity precedes ideology: Who you are determines what you believe.”

Reflect on this: “When I was 15 and in Britain for school, I came to know a neighbor of my English grandmother’s. Then in his 60s, he was a right-wing member of Parliament whose views on the major issues of the day were utterly remote from mine. All the same, we enjoyed spending time together — when he took me trout fishing, it always involved more talk than trout — and though politics was far from the only thing we discussed, it wasn’t a topic we avoided. Once, when he drove me to visit the college he had attended (and that I would too, just as he hoped), I spent two full hours trying to persuade him to support an upcoming resolution to maintain the abolition of capital punishment for murder. We must have made an odd pair — a reactionary M.P. with the strapping build of the heavyweight boxing champion he was as an undergraduate; a willowy brown teenager who kept up with what was then known as The Peking Review. Still, as we whizzed past the hedgerows and incurious sheep of the Cotswolds, we carried on a vigorous debate over an issue we both cared a great deal about.

I do understand why people prefer to limit their socializing to people who share their view of the world and to steer clear of the maddeningly misguided. In recent years, certainly, America has reshaped itself in ways that accommodate the tendency. With the rise of “assortative mating,” bankers — to paint in broad strokes — no longer marry secretaries; they marry other bankers. Doctors no longer marry nurses; they marry other doctors. And so on, up and down the lines of income and class. (Although social scientists have argued that this trend has deepened economic inequality, it also reflects substantial and welcome gains in gender equality in the workplace.) More to the point, the United States has become politically sorted: Increasingly, your neighborhood will be predominantly red or blue, not mixed. If racial segregation has diminished somewhat over the past generation, partisan segregation has risen.

 

10. Dragon Man skull offers clues to human evolution

asiatimes.com · by Alan Kirk · June 26, 2021

An interesting discovery perhaps. But also note the continued impact of the Japanese occupation in pre-WWII.

 

11. What a collapsed trial says about US claims of Chinese high-tech spying

Technology Review · by Karen Hao · June 27, 2021

I think it would be a bad assumption that Chinese spying is less than we think it is. I don't think we should draw that conclusion from one trial.  Mr. Nowrasteh's "logic" is the absence of evidence is evidence of absence. I would not bank on that kind of logic when dealing with China. Perhaps they are practicing good tradecraft.

Excerpts: ““The DOJ doesn’t need a special initiative targeting China to go after spies,” says Alex Nowrasteh, the director of immigration studies and the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute. “They should be able to use their normal methods and procedures.”

Hu’s trial suggests “that the scope of Chinese espionage is probably a lot less than people think,” he adds. “If there was a lot more of it, you’d think it'd be a little bit easier to find, and they wouldn’t have to make up cases.”

As for Hu, his nightmare is far from over.

He is still under house arrest, pending a decision from either the Department of Justice to renew the case or drop it, or the judge to dismiss the government’s charges entirely. He has been jobless since his US work visa expired, but he has also not been granted leave from house arrest so he can return to Canada to renew it. Doing so could put him in the crosshairs of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, according to his lawyer.

All he can do is wait for the US government to make its next move.

 

12. The Misguided Continuity on Foreign Policy

realclearworld.com · by Will Krumholz

Conclusion: "Too often, critical questions like these that strike at the heart of Washington’s flaccid foreign policy assumptions go unanswered, while those trusted to expose the truth remain transfixed, spinning a narrative for mass appeal. That keeps liberal hegemony humming along, but it’s far from serving legitimate U.S. interests."

 

13. Rebuke for the junta in Myanmar

dailypioneer.com · by The Pioneer · June 26, 2021

I think more than a rebuke is necessary.

 

14.  Congress’s National Guard Quick Reaction Force: An Ill-Advised Military Requirement

realcleardefense.com · by Donald McGregor

 

15. Harriet Tubman honored as a Civil War spy

kgun9.com · by Craig Smith · June 26, 2021

Another great American hero who deserves to be honored.

 

16. William Pitsenbarger: The commando who died so that others could live

sandboxx.us · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · June 24, 2021

Where do we find such Americans? I thought the film about him was very moving.

 

17. Conceal or Reveal? Managing Clandestine Military Capabilities in Peacetime Competition

direct.mit.edu · by Brendan Rittenhouse Green

Although a year and a half old, I just came across this (thank you social media). The PDF can be downloaded here. 

This deals with anti-submarine warfare capabilities and more broadly on clandestine technical capabilities. But the logic may also apply to more human aspects - not necessarily clandestine (or covert) intelligence activities but more along the lines of what Robert Jones has called unconventional deterrence - the employment of political resistance potential to deter an adversary.  

Excerpts: “If international relations theory is right that concealment of clandestine capabilities is the dominant behavior among states, then the world is headed for a future with nasty military shocks and untimely discoveries of hidden doomsday machines. But are political advantage and war-fighting effectiveness always and everywhere contradictory? When does a genuine trade-off between signaling information about the military balance and concealing clandestine capabilities arise? When will states signal, and when will they conceal? What are the conditions for effective signaling and concealment?

In this article, we aim to answer these questions, qualifying the dominant conclusions of the existing literature. We argue that the military and political utility of clandestine capabilities were most sharply opposed in the crisis and wartime settings that have been the focus of previous scholarship. In peacetime interactions, however, a dilemma between signaling and concealing clandestine capabilities can emerge. Peacetime signaling will often be more informative and more effective than in crisis or wartime situations, opening the path toward several potential long-term political benefits that might be worth the military costs.

Within the context of long-term peacetime military competitions, we propose that states are more likely to signal clandestine capabilities in two circumstances. First, the less unique the capability, the more attractive signaling is relative to concealment. Second, the less responsive the adversary is anticipated to be at implementing countermeasures, the more likely states are to reveal the clandestine capability. In both cases, signaling increases in attractiveness as the military costs of revelation decrease. We test these propositions with a two-part study of U.S. strategic antisubmarine warfare (ASW) during the Cold War, which meets the conditions of our theory, while in many respects providing a “hard test.”

 

18. ‘At first I thought, this is crazy’: the real-life plan to use novels to predict the next war

The Guardian · by Philip Oltermann · June 26, 2021

Reminds me of the 1970's Robert Redford film: Three Days of the Condor except now with computers and AI.

 

-------------

 

 "I have learned over the years that when one's mind is made up, this diminishes fear." 

- Rosa Parks

 

"Preventing war is much better than protesting against the war. Protesting the war is too late."

-Thich Nhat Hanh. 

 

"When I let go of what I am, I become what I might be."

- Lao Tzu

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. North Korea Admits Kim Jong Un Lost Weight

2. N.K. resident voice concerns over Kim's weight loss

3. Emerging Biden doctrine and future of China dream

4. N.K. paper urges 'maximum vigilance' against COVID-19 amid global spread of Delta variant

5. Minister vows to act 'more quickly' for resumption of dialogue with N. Korea

6. North Korea policy failures causing food shortage: experts

7. Kim Jong-un: Prisoner in his own castle?

8. Will North Korea Remain Stable For the Foreseeable Future?

9. Korea’s holiday isle emerges as high-tech testbed

 

1. North Korea Admits Kim Jong Un Lost Weight

voanews.com · by William Gallo · June 27, 2021

Perhaps north Korea could generate income as an international weight loss center.  Kim Jong-un can be the poster child for their advertisements. (note my attempt at sarcasm).

But the weight loss issue must have been a difficult one for the Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD) to handle.  If you mention it then are you calling Kim fat before his weight loss?

But it is interesting to see how the PAD has handled this and for what probable intended purposes.

Excerpts: “Minimally, someone decided that Kim’s visible weight loss would be the elephant in the room — the now palpably much slimmer elephant in the room — if they DIDN'T mention it, as everyone is talking about it. You can't not notice it,” Aidan Foster-Carter, a veteran, Britain-based Korea specialist, told VOA in an online message.

...

The KCTV comments about Kim's health could be part of a domestic propaganda campaign designed to show that Kim is “tightening his belt” during hardship, says Peter Ward, a Seoul-based Korea specialist and PhD candidate at the University of Vienna.

“But I doubt he lost weight because of that,” Ward added.

“The fact that the media is talking about it means the authorities understand it’s a major story inside the country,” he says. “And they want the people to speak in specific ways about it. Call it the North Korean version of message discipline, if you will.”

 

2. N.K. resident voice concerns over Kim's weight loss

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 27, 2021

This is how the regime's PAD is handling the weight loss issue.  The people want him fat.

Excerpt: "The people were most heartbroken to see the respected General Secretary looking thinner," a North Korean resident said during an interview with Korean Central Television on Friday.

"Everyone is saying that they are moved to tears," the resident said.

 

3. Emerging Biden doctrine and future of China dream

The Korea Times · by Yun Byung-se · June 27, 2021

A Korean view of the Biden Administration's foreign policy.

Excerpt: “It is the paradox of history that the world is on the threshold of a new Cold War and is becoming the victim of its own success. Which dream or scenario will ultimately come true? Pax Americana or the China Dream? Thucydides's Trap (a likely war) or "Kindleberger Trap" (of incapability to provide global public goods)? It will depend on how strategic competition will unfold in the coming years and decades. Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia, offers a good recipe for avoiding the war through managed strategic competition.

One big moment of truth will come sooner than later, when President Biden and President Xi are set to meet with each other probably at the G20 summit in October. But a wise counsel is in order, from John Lennon, "A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is reality."

 

4. N.K. paper urges 'maximum vigilance' against COVID-19 amid global spread of Delta variant

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 27, 2021

The continued world wide pandemic gives the regime plenty of "ammunition" to justify the continued crackdown against the Korean people living in the north and make them continue to sacrifice for the protection of the regime.

 

5.  Minister vows to act 'more quickly' for resumption of dialogue with N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 27, 2021

You have to give Minister Lee credit: he is consistent, tenacious, and relentless in his pursuit of engagement and peace "at any cost."

 

6. North Korea policy failures causing food shortage: experts

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · June 27, 2021

It is important to emphasize that the north's problems are a result of Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions (I will continue to beat the horse more dead on this).  There is important economic analysis in this from William Brown who is arguably one the nation's experts on the north Korean economy.  The regime would actually do well to listen to him as he probably has better economic insights than the regime's "economists" do.

 

7. Kim Jong-un: Prisoner in his own castle?

The Korea Times · by David Tizzard · June 27, 2021

I could not pass up highlighting this comment: "It's an easy yet informative read for those of us looking for some respite from the minutiae of missile technology or the Leninist communist sympathizer "tankies" on Twitter."

I will read this book.  I just ordered it.

Excerpts: “Ultimately, Schafer reaches a somewhat contradictory but appealing conclusion: Kim Jong-un and many around him in North Korea are both perpetrators of great misery and tragedy, but at the same time also victims. They are prisoners inside a system that brings out the worst in humanity and offers little respite or hope of escape. None of the people inside North Korea, including those in the most visible positions, asked to be there. They may, Schafer argues, even dream of having been born elsewhere ― somewhere with greater freedom. But, trapped as they are, they have little choice but to seek their own survival in an environment that is as deadly as it is suffocating.

Schafer's book is dedicated to the people of North Korea and the hope that they might have a better life. His passion for the people and frustrations with the regime can be felt throughout. It's not often that you get to read the thoughts of someone who has spent eight years of their life living and working in Pyongyang, so for that reason, regardless of whether you agree with him or not, Ambassador Schafer's book makes for an important read for anyone seeking to get a fuller understanding of North Korea.

 

8. Will North Korea Remain Stable For the Foreseeable Future?

The National Interest · by Naoko Aoki · June 26, 2021

A lot of people are writing about the potential for north Korean instability (and some even about regime collapse). Are we looking at and preparing for the range of possible contingencies?  Could there be a "perfect storm" in the north?

The “Big 5” for the Korean Peninsula

    1. War - must deter, and if attacked defend, fight, and defeat the nKPA.

    2. Regime Collapse - must prepare for the real possibility and understand it could lead to war and both war and regime collapse could result in resistance within the north.

    3. Human Rights and Crimes Against Humanity - (gulags, external forced labor, etc) must focus on as it is a threat to the Kim Family Regime and undermines domestic legitimacy - it is a moral imperative and a national security issue. KJU denies human rights to remain in power.

    4. Asymmetric threats (provocations, proliferation, nuclear program, missile, cyber, and SOF) subversion of ROK, and global illicit activities.

    5. Unification - the biggest challenge and the solution.

We should never forget that north Korea is master of denial and deception in all that it does from military operations to strategy to diplomatic negotiations.

 

Key Questions for the Summit(s) and  Beyond

1. Has the regime abandoned its strategy of the use of subversion, coercion, extortion, and force to unify Korea under northern domination to ensure regime survival?
2. Has the regime abandoned its objective to split the ROK/US Alliance to support its strategy?
3. Who does Kim fear more: US or Korean people?
4. What do we want to achieve in Korea? 
5. What is the acceptable durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia that will serve and protect US and Alliance interests?

Will North Korea Remain Stable For the Foreseeable Future?

A worsening of the food situation and North Korea’s overall economic health pose risks for Kim, on top of the situation with the coronavirus pandemic.

 

9. Korea’s holiday isle emerges as high-tech testbed

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 26, 2021

 

--------------

 

 "I have learned over the years that when one's mind is made up, this diminishes fear." 

- Rosa Parks

 

"Preventing war is much better than protesting against the war. Protesting the war is too late."

-Thich Nhat Hanh. 

 

"When I let go of what I am, I become what I might be."

- Lao Tzu

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Opinion | Where Did the Coronavirus Come From? What We Already Know Is Troubling.

2.  On the Front Line: A Night With Afghan Commandos

3. Here's How Biden Can Wage Political Warfare Against Putin

4. Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Assessment

5. Why the Pentagon UFO report is deeply troubling for US security experts

6. Xinhua Headlines: Why Western political theories can't explain success of century-old CPC

7. Japan ratifies world's biggest free trade deal involving China, ASEAN

8. Moscow Is Using Memory Diplomacy to Export Its Narrative to the World

9. How a Liberal Think Tank Did China's Bidding on Climate Change

10. AFSOC at "Strategic Inflection Point"

11. Is Washington Right to Leave Afghanistan? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts

12. Indonesia, U.S Break Ground on Joint Strategic Maritime Centre

13. Spare Army counterinsurgency tasks, police does it better. Look at Punjab, Andhra, Tripura

14. Comrades in Tweets? The Contours and Limits of China-Russia Cooperation on Digital Propaganda

15. Eddie Gallagher Vs. the World: After War Crimes Trial, Notorious SEAL Is Out to Settle Scores

16. How to spot the latest trends in digital disinformation

17. China-U.S. Rivalry Brings Promise of Innovation Investors Crave

18. They Seemed Like Democratic Activists. They Were Secretly Conservative Spies.

19. The Situation in Afghanistan Is Much Worse Than You Realize

20. Analysis | The most brutal debunking of Trump’s fraud claims yet — from Republicans

 

1. Opinion | Where Did the Coronavirus Come From? What We Already Know Is Troubling.

The New York Times · by Zeynep Tufekci · June 25, 2021

Troubling is right.

 

2.  On the Front Line: A Night With Afghan Commandos

The New York Times · by Jim Huylebroek · June 25, 2021

Excerpts: “The night missions, witnessed by a photojournalist with The New York Times, are seen by Afghan military officials as key to hitting the Taliban when the insurgents are not expecting it, or at the least disrupting future attacks on government forces.

But these tactics — perfected by the United States over its long wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq — have had arguable if little success, as insurgencies in both countries continue to adapt and endure.

Night raids in Afghanistan especially have turned people, particularly those in the country’s rural areas, against the government and international forces. But the presence of these units helped government forces hold Lashkar Gah last month. For now, it is one of their best and limited ways of striking the insurgents in this two-decade-long war as government-held territory shrinks and units are stretched thin.

But even going on the offensive has deadly consequences, especially as Taliban forces have become even more emboldened with the departure of international forces. Earlier this month, more than 20 Afghan commandos were killed when their offensive operation to retake a district in the country’s northwest was derailed by a vicious Taliban counterattack.

 

3. Here's How Biden Can Wage Political Warfare Against Putin

thebulwark.com · by Kristofer Harrison · June 18, 2021

I missed this when it was published last week. 

The five "strategies:"

(1) America should start mucking about in his internal affairs

(2) The Biden administration should be pouring gasoline all over Belarus.

(3) Go after Russian corruption like crazy.

(4) Find a way to pull the plug on the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project.

(5) Watch to see if Russian soldiers start coming home from Syria and Ukraine in body bags, and, when they do, make sure every man, woman, and child in Russia hears about it.

 

4. Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Assessment

defense.gov  · June 25, 2021

UAP....  

The 9 page report can be downloaded here.

 

5. Why the Pentagon UFO report is deeply troubling for US security experts

The Guardian · by Julian Borger · June 25, 2021

Excerpts: “It said there was no evidence that the objects were linked to another country such as Russia or China – but it did not rule out the possibility.

...

“And if a foreign power was actually testing really hi-tech equipment, they would be testing hi-tech equipment in a protected area of their country that the United States or other foreign powers couldn’t see,” Weinstein added. “If you get something that secret that can work that well, you’re not going to show it to anybody until you absolutely need it.”

Another option is that a foreign power had developed unmanned aircraft that could spoof US radar and instruments into seeing the incredible speeds and changes of direction that have been reported.

...

Thomas Bania, professor of astronomy at Boston University, said: “Without the range, then one simply cannot tell speed, acceleration, etc. So the interpretation of speeds and turns (ie accelerations) that our US technology cannot match is just bogus. No need for invoking a foreign power with superior – much superior – technology.”

“Were it me running their electronic warfare show, I would build small drones and stuff them with electronics that would monitor and record everything our military radars would send at them,” Bania said. “Then I would get busy reverse engineering what our weaponry did. Then I would develop protocols to spoof radar locks back at us giving ranges that would imply these ridiculous motions.”

 

6.  Xinhua Headlines: Why Western political theories can't explain success of century-old CPC

xinhuanet.com

Hmmm..... about simply authoritarianism rules?

And rather than think about 5000 years of Chinese history we can now consider modern China has very young with only 100 years of experience under the CCP. It is still early in its history.

 

7.  Japan ratifies world's biggest free trade deal involving China, ASEAN

thejakartapost.com · by June 26, 2021

 

8. Moscow Is Using Memory Diplomacy to Export Its Narrative to the World

Foreign Policy · by Jade McGlynn · June 25, 2021

Excerpts: “The tone is one of high messianism—but a preacher needs converts to justify his cause.

It is difficult to assess exactly how successful Russian memory diplomacy has been at converting its targets; although there has been obvious success in exporting Russian commemorative traditions and activities, in most countries, the participants comprise compatriots or people who were already sympathetic.

But culture and history wars are raging in many countries, creating fertile ground for future Russian efforts. In many ways, the ability of other countries to withstand Russian efforts to promote an archaic revisionist view of the world through flawed historical narratives will depend on whether those countries can resist using history as a vehicle for politics themselves.

 

9. How a Liberal Think Tank Did China's Bidding on Climate Change

freebeacon.com · by Collin Anderson · June 24, 2021

Ouch. Quite a critique.

 

10. AFSOC at "Strategic Inflection Point"

dvidshub.net

Excerpts: “Operating in contested environments, Slife continued, may require changes in how AFSOC deploys its forces.

“To the extent that we can, we need to be independent of main operating bases such as large runways, large fixed facilities,” said Slife. “We need to get smaller, lighter, and more expeditionary to succeed.”

“It’s imperative to lower our signature,” he continued. “We have to be able to blend into the noise both physically and electronically around the globe, wherever we want to compete.”

In a fiscally-constrained environment, Robinson asked Slife what areas of AFSOC might still see growth.

“Going forward I think we need to talk about language,” said Slife. “We need to take a look at ourselves in AFSOC and decide to what degree do we need regionally specialized forces who have deepened understanding of regions and cultures and nations inside those regions.”

When asked what AFSOC needs from its sister services in terms of cyber, electronic and communication capabilities, Slife stated he is not interested in growing an organic capability.

 

11.  Is Washington Right to Leave Afghanistan? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts

Foreign Affairs

This is a fascinating who's who of experts. I have never seen more diverse views over an issue expressed in a single article.

Please go to the link to click on each expert for the details of their views and to view the very unique and interesting graphic chart the expert views. 

 

12. Indonesia, U.S Break Ground on Joint Strategic Maritime Centre

US News & World Reports

It will be interesting to see the Chinese reaction to this.

 

13. Spare Army counterinsurgency tasks, police does it better. Look at Punjab, Andhra, Tripura

theprint.in · June 25, 2021

Who is best suited to conduct COIN? I think the answer is "it depends." This is why continuous assessments of the situation, conditions, and environment are critical.

But I would say that if the situation allows the less military involvement the better.

 

14. Comrades in Tweets? The Contours and Limits of China-Russia Cooperation on Digital Propaganda

carnegie.ru · by Alexander Gabuev, Leonid Kovachich

From Carnegie's Moscow Center in Russia.

Excerpt: “Shared Goals Yet Constrained Cooperation

At root, both Russian and Chinese leaders are driven by great power calculus. Therefore, they want to maintain strategic autonomy above all else, including in pushing back against the United States and its allies. Rhetorical support from a like-minded great power is nice to have, but it is not indispensable when it comes to the global information domain, an area unregulated by international legal norms. On the UN Security Council, by contrast, Moscow and Beijing frequently act far more in tandem because of the bureaucratic nature of the organization and both countries’ unique position as permanent members. For now, however, Chinese and Russian influence operations can be—and continue to be—conducted independently.

 

15. Eddie Gallagher Vs. the World: After War Crimes Trial, Notorious SEAL Is Out to Settle Scores

military.com · by Stephen Losey · June 26, 2021

Will he dig his own grave with new accusations and information?

 

16. How to spot the latest trends in digital disinformation

atlanticcouncil.org · by Nick Fouriezos · June 25, 2021

The full event can be viewed at this link: 

 

17. China-U.S. Rivalry Brings Promise of Innovation Investors Crave

Bloomberg · by Eric Lam · June 25, 2021

This is concerning: “The contest heralds the prospect of new national champions emerging in China. Huynh said he favors equities in the clean energy, consumer electronics and entertainment sectors, and that investors should increase their China exposure over time alongside their existing U.S. holdings.

Citigroup economist Li-Gang Liu sees a possible “Sputnik moment” for Chinese innovation, with the country’s goal of increased self-reliance triggering an era of rapid technological progress similar to the U.S.-Soviet rivalry that spurred the 1950s Space Race. Progress is already apparent, as just last month China’s Zhurong rover joined the U.S.’s Perseverance on Mars.

 

18.  They Seemed Like Democratic Activists. They Were Secretly Conservative Spies.

The New York Times · by Adam Goldman and Mark Mazzetti · June 25, 2021

No surprise especially considering those involved.

Excerpts: “At the center of the scheme was an unusual cast: a former British spy connected to the security contractor Erik Prince, a wealthy heiress to the Gore-Tex fortune and undercover operatives like Mr. Maier and Ms. LaRocca who used Wyoming as a base to insinuate themselves into the political fabric of this state and at least two others, Colorado and Arizona.

In more than two dozen interviews and a review of federal election records, The New York Times reconstructed many of the operatives’ interactions in Wyoming and other states — mapping out their associations and likely targets — and spoke to people with whom they discussed details of their spying operation. Publicly available documents in Wyoming also tied Mr. Maier and Ms. LaRocca to an address in Cody used by the former spy, Richard Seddon.

What the effort accomplished — and how much information Mr. Seddon’s operatives gathered — is unclear. Sometimes, their tactics were bumbling and amateurish. But the operation’s use of spycraft to manipulate the politics of several states over years greatly exceeds the tactics of more traditional political dirty tricks operations.

 

19. The Situation in Afghanistan Is Much Worse Than You Realize

vitalinterests.thedispatch.com · by Thomas Joscelyn

This is quite an accusation against the US MIlitary. Will we see another Pentagon Papers?

 

20. Analysis | The most brutal debunking of Trump’s fraud claims yet — from Republicans

The Washington Post · by Aaron Blake · June 24, 2021

I do not mean this as a partisan statement (I remain a lifelong independent who voted neither for Trump nor Biden, nor Trump or Clinton in 2016). I offer this only as one who remains unshaken in my belief in the strength and brilliance of our federal democratic republic system and the American experiment in pursuit of our more perfect union).

The big lie is a threat to democracy. However, I fear those who believe in it are going to be hard pressed to "unbelieve it." Perhaps it can be debunked by other Republicans but I fear it is too ingrained in people's psyche and part of their (at least political) identity.

 

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“So live your life that the fear of death can never enter your heart. Trouble no one about their religion; respect others in their view, and demand that they respect yours. Love your life, perfect your life, beautify all things in your life. Seek to make your life long and its purpose in the service of your people. Prepare a noble death song for the day when you go over the great divide. Always give a word or a sign of salute when meeting or passing a friend, even a stranger, when in a lonely place. Show respect to all people and grovel to none. When you arise in the morning give thanks for the food and for the joy of living. If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies only in yourself. Abuse no one and no thing, for abuse turns the wise ones to fools and robs the spirit of its vision. When it comes your time to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with the fear of death, so that when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way. Sing your death song and die like a hero going home.”

- Chief Tecumseh

 

"War's one of those things, don't you think, where everyone always thinks they're in the right have you noticed that? Nobody ever says we're the bad guys, we're going to beat shit out of the good guys."

-Caryl Churchill da

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. U.S. must consider reconstituting six-party talks with N. Korea: former U.S. envoys

2. Patterns of Impunity: Human Rights in North Korea and the Role of the U.S. Special Envoy

3. North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex: Assessing Activity at the Radiochemical Laboratory

4. North Korean Stability is in the Eye of the Beholder

5. Kim Jong-un's Demand for Self-Reliance Risks North Korean Lives

6. Kim Jong-un’s COVID-19 Policy Could Lead to Mass Starvation

7. What Is the North Korea’s Recently Minted 'General Secretary' up To?

8. South Korea open to dialogue with North despite latest snub, report says

9. North Korea defined by 'hybridity,' South Korean analyst says in new book

10. South Korea’s needless censorship of North Korean material

11. Is North Korea Struggling to Move Toward the Future?

12. A New Chapter in U.S.-South Korea Relations: Seoul Embraces a Broader Role in Asia

 

1. U.S. must consider reconstituting six-party talks with N. Korea: former U.S. envoys

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 26, 2021

Would a new 6 party talk format be 5 against 1 or 3 against 3? Or even 4 against 2?

 

2. Patterns of Impunity: Human Rights in North Korea and the Role of the U.S. Special Envoy

The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea · June 24, 2021

For anyone interested in human rights in the north, the job of the US Ambassador for Human Rights, and the importance of information, NGOs, and international pressure, it is worth 70 minutes of your time to watch this. I ordered Ambassador King's new book and I look forward to reading it.

 

3. North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Complex: Assessing Activity at the Radiochemical Laboratory

38north.org · by Olli Heinonen · June 25, 2021

Excerpt: "It is also important to note that the reactor is maintained and likely ready to operate when needed."

 

4.  North Korean Stability is in the Eye of the Beholder

The National Interest · by Patrick M. Cronin · June 25, 2021

Where you stand depends on where you sit.

I am pleasantly surprised by how much Korea watchers are paying attention to the possibility of north Korean instability and regime collapse.  

It is like deja vu all over again only now we may have much better insights than we did in the 1990s.

And an intel assessment from the 1990s: in the next 10 years north Korea may attack the South, collapse, or muddle through. The same assessment can be made today.

And while this conclusion is logical we must anticipate what might happen and be prepared for it because we could have no choice if the regime collapses. If collapse occurs it will be catastrophic for the Koreans in the north, South Korea, Northeast Asia, the US, and the international community. (the same goes for war of course too)

For all the troubles North Korea causes the world, and for all the horrors the regime inflicts on many of its people, the sudden failure of North Korea could be even worse than its continued existence.

 

5. Kim Jong-un's Demand for Self-Reliance Risks North Korean Lives

The National Interest · by Spencer D. Bakich · June 25, 2021

Look. We need to understand the nature of the Kim family regime and its vital national interest. That is: it is the survival of the Kim family regime, not survival of the nation-state or the Korean people in the north. The Korean people in the north exist to be exploited and/or sacrificed to ensure the regime's survival. The Korean people are suffering and will suffer because of the deliberate policy decisions of Kim Jong-un.

 

6. Kim Jong-un’s COVID-19 Policy Could Lead to Mass Starvation

The National Interest · by Sojin Lim · June 26, 2021

The COVID mitigation measures are for the dual purpose of ensuring survival of the regime and for further oppressing the population to prevent any kind of political or violent resistance. They are not designed to protect the people and their protection through these measures is purely incidental,

 

7. What Is the North Korea’s Recently Minted 'General Secretary' up To?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · June 25, 2021

I hope the de facto or pseudo trilateral alliance is discussing contingencies.  We must anticipate the likely contingencies. As I told some students last week, while we call north Korea the Hermit Kingdom sometimes we act like we are part of the Ostrich Kingdom because our heads seem to be buried in the sand when it comes to north Korea and potential futures and outcomes.

 

8. South Korea open to dialogue with North despite latest snub, report says

upi.com · June 25, 2021

Four to six months? If they have the vaccines and a distribution system I bet the discipline of the north Korean system and society might be able to accomplish this even faster than four to six months.

Excerpts: “Dr. Kee B. Park, director of Korea Health Policy Project at Harvard Medical School, said Friday at the 16th Jeju Forum that Gavi officials could vaccinate the entire country in four to six months, Seoul Shinmun reported.

Vaccine deliveries to North Korea may have been delayed, however, according to the report.

 

9. North Korea defined by 'hybridity,' South Korean analyst says in new book

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · June 25, 2021

Hopefully this will be translated into English. I wish FBIS was still around. I do not think OSC is doing any major translation work.

I would agree with Thae Yong-ho below except for the fact the regime has closed the border with China, restricted movement and information flow and is trying to prevent the use of foreign currency. All of these are necessary for the markets to function. It is the markets (and the ROK Sunshine Policy) that saved the Korean people and the regime after the Arduous March of 1994-1996. But we may see neither repeated in 2021 and the actions to mitigate COVID effects are a self inflicted wound on the markets.

Excerpts: “Koh argues in his book that marketization theory may not be sufficient to understand contemporary North Korea. Recent history indicates that even though a marketization from below is taking place, the direction of the North Korean leadership suggests Pyongyang has not changed since the Cold War.

The author instead proposes hybridity may best capture what is occurring at multiple levels of North Korean society, where different systems exist side by side. Social Change and Hybridity is the first volume in a six-book series from Koh.

...

Informal markets in North Korea have played an important role in replenishing the food supply, according to defectors.

Thae Yong-ho, the former North Korean diplomat now lawmaker in Seoul, told KBS Friday that North Korea's current food shortage does not compare to the famine of the '90s.

Markets have taught the North Korean people the ability to "self-sustain" and it is unlikely mass starvation will occur as in the past, Thae said, according to the report.

 

10. South Korea’s needless censorship of North Korean material

eastasiaforum.org · by Martin Weiser · June 26, 2021

We should not censor the enemy’s propaganda. Superior ideas, ideals, and values defeat inferior ones. Censorship also connotes weakness.

 

11. Is North Korea Struggling to Move Toward the Future?

The National Interest · by Andrew Yeo · June 25, 2021

A future defined by the Kim family regime?

I am reminded of a discussion I had with a retired ROK Navy Admiral outlined here:

Differences (and similarities) Between north and South

Survive and Thrive

• Two Miracles in Korea
• Miracle on the Han – development of Korea
• Only nation to go from major aid recipient to a major donor nation
• Grew out of the ashes of the Korean Civil War – political, economic, cultural development- Great Middle Power – 8-11^th largest economy in the world
• Miracle on the Taedong (river in Pyongyang similar to the Han River in Seoul)
• After 7 decades the Korean people in the north continue to survive despite living in conditions of the worst human rights atrocities and crimes against humanity since WWII.
• Commonality among Korean people in the north and South
• When faced with hardship they will survive
• Neither north nor South had a history of democracy or free market economy
• When given an opportunity they will thrive – note the nearly 500 markets thriving in the north

 

12. A New Chapter in U.S.-South Korea Relations: Seoul Embraces a Broader Role in Asia

americanprogress.org · by Tobias Harris and Haneul Lee · June 25, 2021

But can the ROK and US execute what came out of the summit? The agreements reached were strategic and important but they must be effectively implemented. I remain cautiously optimistic.

Conclusion: “The Moon-Biden summit is a significant landmark for the U.S.-ROK alliance and South Korean domestic politics. South Korean progressives, who have historically wanted the alliance to focus on North Korea, are becoming more open to the idea of expanding the U.S.-ROK alliance beyond the peninsula. This is a positive development in South Korea’s increasingly partisan political atmosphere, and a benefit to the United States, which has always viewed the alliance as capable of both addressing North Korea and playing a role in regional affairs. There is truly no limit on what the two allies can accomplish together in the region if there is a bipartisan consensus in South Korea that Seoul can and should play a greater role in confronting the region’s most urgent challenges in coordination with the United States and other democracies.”

 

------------------

 

“So live your life that the fear of death can never enter your heart. Trouble no one about their religion; respect others in their view, and demand that they respect yours. Love your life, perfect your life, beautify all things in your life. Seek to make your life long and its purpose in the service of your people. Prepare a noble death song for the day when you go over the great divide. Always give a word or a sign of salute when meeting or passing a friend, even a stranger, when in a lonely place. Show respect to all people and grovel to none. When you arise in the morning give thanks for the food and for the joy of living. If you see no reason for giving thanks, the fault lies only in yourself. Abuse no one and no thing, for abuse turns the wise ones to fools and robs the spirit of its vision. When it comes your time to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with the fear of death, so that when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way. Sing your death song and die like a hero going home.”

- Chief Tecumseh

 

"War's one of those things, don't you think, where everyone always thinks they're in the right have you noticed that? Nobody ever says we're the bad guys, we're going to beat shit out of the good guys."

-Caryl Churchill 

 

"There's never been a true war that wasn't fought between two sets of people who were certain they were in the right. The really dangerous people believe that they are doing whatever they are doing solely and only because it is without question the right thing to do. And that is what makes them dangerous."

- Neil Gaiman