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03/02/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Tue, 03/02/2021 - 10:00am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Indo-Pacific Commander Delivers $27 Billion Plan to Congress

2. How to Asymmetrically Out-Compete Xi Jinping’s One Belt One Road Initiative3

3. FDD | Democracies still don’t understand CCP’s political warfare: Kerry Gershaneck

4. FDD | The UN Should Protect Human Rights, Not Human Rights Abusers

5. Human Rights: A New Role For The Intelligence Community

6. How Beijing uses family videos to try to discredit Uyghur advocates

7. A Salami Slice for Taiwan’s Security

8. Security force assistance brigade wants a third of its members in Indo-Pacific at all times

9. Biden Putting Tech, Not Troops, at Core of U.S.-China Policy

10. From The U.S. Capitol To Local Governments, Disinformation Disrupts

11. Report: Iran used commercial satellite images to monitor US forces before attack

12. 'Inferior' women: China counters Uighur criticism with explicit PR attacks

13. Pentagon Hosts First Meeting of US-China Task Force

14. Stop doing anal Covid tests on our citizens, Japan tells China

15. Drones Could Be SOCOM Armed Overwatch Contenders, Slife Says

16. Air Force Might Make Separate "Pacific" and "European" 6th Gen Stealth Jets

17. What Tom Brady Can Teach Joe Biden on Foreign Policy

18. ‘The Things They Carried’ author Tim O’Brien on his life’s work, trauma & confronting mortality

19. The Relentless Pursuit of America

20. The Last Stop Before Thermopylae

21.  The Republican revolt against democracy, explained in 13 charts

 

1. Indo-Pacific Commander Delivers $27 Billion Plan to Congress

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

I wonder if this will include the relatively inexpensive concept of development of a resistance operating concept for Taiwan to contribute to unconventional deterrence.

 

2. How to Asymmetrically Out-Compete Xi Jinping’s One Belt One Road Initiative

warontherocks.com · by Patrick Cronin · March 2, 2021

Excellent recommendations from Patrick Cronin, particularly on the digital aspects.

Here are my thoughts on developing a resistance potential to OBOR:

•What is the resistance potential against OBOR?

•Is it supportable and exploitable?

•How to develop a supporting campaign plan to support the new US Strategic Approach to China;

•Promoting American Prosperity

•Advancing American Influence

•Preserving Peace Through Strength.

US Strategic Approach to China:

State Department Plays a Key Role in New US China Strategy

•How to Support the GEC?

•Information and Influence Activities

•How to Support State?

•Blue Dot Network

•Economic Prosperity Network

•Is there a role for the 2 SOF “trinities?”

•Irregular Warfare, Unconventional Warfare, Support to Political Warfare

•The Comparative advantage of SOF: Governance, Influence, Support to indigenous forces and populations

 

3.  FDD | Democracies still don’t understand CCP’s political warfare: Kerry Gershaneck

fdd.org · by Cleo Paskal · February 27, 2021

From my FDD colleague, Cleo Paskal.

Excerpts:

“A: The nature of the regime matters greatly, as does the extent of the threat it poses. China is an expansionist, hyper-nationalistic, militarily powerful, brutally repressive, fascist, and totalitarian state. It is essential to understand each word in that indisputable description. The CCP poses an existential threat to the freedom and democracy that India and the US represent. Failure to understand the nature of the CCP regime undermines our countries’ ability to fully understand the danger the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) PW poses and to build our capacity to combat it.

I wrote the book because many American elected officials and others in key policy, national security, and education positions simply do not understand the nature of the PRC threat. They do not understand—or simply refuse to recognize—that the PRC is at war with us. During the Cold War, the US used to be pretty good at fighting totalitarian political warfare, which is a key reason the Free World won that prolonged Cold War with the USSR. It’s worth noting that the non-aligned nations won as well when the USSR collapsed.

But we abandoned those skills in the early 1990s, when we naively assumed the collapse of the Soviet Union meant we had won and that there would never be a threat again from a totalitarian communist regime. The communist Soviet regime had collapsed but not the CCP. The CCP studied the Soviet Union’s collapse closely and learned lessons regarding how to keep its totalitarian system alive. And it vastly improved its political warfare capabilities to ensure that it could overcome the democracies’ efforts to reform the PRC to help it to become like them.”

 

4. FDD | The UN Should Protect Human Rights, Not Human Rights Abusers

fdd.org · by Bradley Bowman · March 1, 2021

From my colleagues Brad Bowman, and David May.

We have to compete with China in international organizations and counter its influence especially in areas such as human rights. My belief is China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

Excerpts:

“If countries can engage in the worst human rights abuses imaginable and still achieve or retain membership, it says much about the state of the UNHRC—and any hope for real reform.

Here’s another metric that could be used to measure any Biden administration effort to reengage at the UNHRC: Can the U.S. delegation convince the UNHRC to treat Israel more equitably?

Perhaps some of the time previously spent on Israel could be used to help the Uighurs detained in concentration camps in Xinjiang. European allies willing to put principle before profit might want to partner with the U.S. delegation on this effort. And perhaps Muslim-majority countries might want to team up to help fellow Muslims confronting atrocities that our grandchildren will read about decades from now.

Americans rightly want to honor our principles, advance human rights and not vacate key fields of competition with China. But we also don’t want to inadvertently aid and abet an enterprise that often undermines the goals it was established to advance.

In his announcement, Blinken touted the administration’s commitment “to a world in which human rights are protected, their defenders are celebrated and those who commit human rights abuses are held accountable.” The problem is that the international organization charged with leading that effort frequently does exactly the opposite.”

 

5. Human Rights: A New Role For The Intelligence Community

breakingdefense.com · by Anthony Vinci

Human rights is not only a moral imperative, it is a national security issue. Despotic regimes around the world deny human rights in order to remain in power.

State is an obvious customer as it produces the human rights reports. And there should also be public-private partnerships with NGOs who are working on human rights issues. And certain information organizations such as State's Global Engagement center and the US Agency for Global media would also benefit from intelligence information to inform foreign target audiences about human rights abuses around the world. And our diplomats at the UN could make effective use of intelligence analysis on human rights abuses.

Excerpts:

“If the IC is to focus on human rights, it requires customers and budget. The Biden administration has done something great by creating that customer in the NSC. The administration could go even further by issuing an Executive Order to the IC to focus more effort on human rights. Intelligence community leaders will need to translate administration focus into requirements, budgetary choices and decisions to set up new offices, train and equip intelligence officers and devote collection resources.

To really succeed and build an IC human rights capability, Congress must act to provide the funding necessary for the IC to devote the resources it will need.”

 

6. How Beijing uses family videos to try to discredit Uyghur advocates

hongkongfp.com · by Emily Upson · February 28, 2021

True evil.

Photos and videos at the link

 

7. A Salami Slice for Taiwan’s Security

defenseone.com · by Andrew Latham

Excerpts:

“So, the best possible strategy would seem to be off the table. But is it? Here’s a suggestion: act boldly to “home-port” an American warship at a Taiwanese port. Don’t telegraph whatever bilateral negotiations between Washington and Taipei would be needed to make this happen. Just sail the ship into harbor; leave it there; then, over time, develop the dockside infrastructure needed to support the vessel; then, again over time, increase either the size of the warship or the number of warships making that port home. In other words, play the salami-slice game, but in reverse: have the world’s premiere military power take a bold move short of the declared threshold of war, thus forcing its adversary either to accept the new status quo or attempt to re-establish the status quo ante.

There would be risks, of course. In 2017, a Chinese embassy official told Congressional staffers that Beijing might respond to a U.S. warship's port visit with “non-peaceful means." But the situation is risky now. And, given the geopolitical circumstances, the risks of such a stratagem of stealth home-porting would be less than that of having tens of thousands of U.S. Marines or Army paratroopers suddenly land on the island and then establish permanent garrisons around the country.

If the U.S. were to signal its commitment in this way, as well as demonstrate that two can play the salami-slice game, it might just mean the end of PRC incursions into Taiwanese airspace. And beyond that, it might help stabilize the regional status quo while it still favors the U.S. and its democratic allies.”

 

8. Security force assistance brigade wants a third of its members in Indo-Pacific at all times

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · March 1, 2021

A nice bumper sticker but presence for what purpose?

Excerpts:

“Taylor said other countries in the region have “a lot of interest” in receiving SFAB teams, but declined to list them until the partnerships are formally announced.

“As we work these partnerships, our countries have varying degrees of openness about, you know, evolving relationships,” Taylor said.

“What we will be very open about is the missions that we’ve completed,” Taylor added. “But just out of respect for these evolving relationships, we want to let our partners decide when it’s the right time to talk about the partnership that we’re doing with them.”

The United States is not the only major power courting Asian nations. In the past, SFAB leaders have acknowledged that working in the Indo-Pacific means sharing partners with Chinese military trainers, as well.

“It’s clear that we are in competition with China in every country that we’re going to,” Taylor said in October. “That does not mean we’re demanding that everyone we work with make a choice of us over other neighbors. We recognize that our partners out there, they’re not going to change their neighborhood, and so they have to work with a number of different partners.”

...

Special Forces teams have also been active across the Indo-Pacific region. Those teams specialize in unconventional warfare and counterinsurgency, but they have far less experience when it comes to supply chain management or running a maintenance program, Taylor noted. That’s a gap SFABs can fill.

“These are kind of hard army conventional force skills that we hire people specifically for their mastery of,” Taylor said. “But really, in practice, most of what we’ve been doing is the fundamentals of good war fighting at the platoon, company and battalion level.”

 

9.  Biden Putting Tech, Not Troops, at Core of U.S.-China Policy

Bloomberg · by Nick Wadhams · March 1, 2021

I would say it is not either/or. I will give the administration the benefit of the doubt in that it is trying to use all elements of national power in the competition with China and not relying solely on the military. None of the instruments can be neglected. This is political warfare: “political warfare is the employment of all the means at a nation's command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives.”  

 

10.  From The U.S. Capitol To Local Governments, Disinformation Disrupts

NPR · by Sarah McCammon · March 1, 2021

Of course we will never eliminate disinformation. We have to develop resilience among the American people to recognize, expose, counter, and resist the influence of disinformation. 

The 2017 NSS has been removed from the White House web site. I wonder if the next NSS will include a statement similar to this one. This is one that should not be specifically affiliated with any partisan perspective:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

 

11. Report: Iran used commercial satellite images to monitor US forces before attack

Defense News · by Nathan Strout · March 2, 2021

I do not think we should be surprised. Wouldn't you use all capabilities and tools available? Now the question is can we limit access to our adversaries? Should we try? Probably not. So many other entities are dependent on this type of imagery now. We have to assume our adversaries will exploit commercial imagery. The question is can we use that to our advantage or can we at least minimize the advantages it might provide our adversaries?

 

12. 'Inferior' women: China counters Uighur criticism with explicit PR attacks

Reuters · by Cate Cadell · March 1, 2021

Again the brutality and evil nature of the regime in China.

 

13. Pentagon Hosts First Meeting of US-China Task Force

voanews.com · by Reuters

Excerpts:

“Monday's meeting "is intended to formalize the mission, timing and outputs of the task force as they work towards a baseline assessment of [the] departments, policies, programs and processes on China-related matters," Kirby said.

He added the task force is expected to complete its work within the next four months but said that most if its findings "will be classified."

 

14. Stop doing anal Covid tests on our citizens, Japan tells China

The Guardian · March 2, 2021

Why are nations' allowing this to happen to their officials and citizens? Can't they halt travel? They need to hold China accountable for this and not allow normal relations to continue as long as this kind of behavior persists.

 

15. Drones Could Be SOCOM Armed Overwatch Contenders, Slife Says

Air Force Magazine · by Jennifer-Leigh Oprihory · March 2, 2021

 

16. Air Force Might Make Separate "Pacific" and "European" 6th Gen Stealth Jets

defensemaven.io · by Kris Osborn

Would this be over- "specialization?"

 

17.  What Tom Brady Can Teach Joe Biden on Foreign Policy

19fortyfive.com · by Daniel Davis · February 28, 2021

Yes, this title is clickbait and caught my eye. Unfortunately, in terms of north Korea the author's new strategy is one of appeasement. 

Excerpts:

“They represent a potent threat, however, near their own shores and if we foolishly chose to fight China in their neighborhood, we could suffer a defeat. Should Beijing – or any other country – be foolish enough to attack us on our turf, all the advantages would go to us and they would be crushed. No one is more conscious of that fact than China and thus they are unlikely to take such self-defeating actions.

That gives Biden enormous advantages. By keeping our Armed Forces strong, adequately funded, and properly trained, he can safely rely on our deterrent capacity while making much more liberal use of American diplomatic power to accomplish what ought to be the key objectives of any U.S. Administration: avoiding unnecessary war, expanding global economic opportunities, and preserving our freedom.

Biden could then safely engage in step-by-step diplomacy with North Korea to eventually achieve peace on the peninsula. He can assure American security in the Middle East by reducing tensions with Tehran and working towards the normalization of relations. We can deter Russia with our global military power without pointlessly antagonizing them while cooperating with them where it makes sense for our benefit. The president could diplomatically press for equality and fairness in our economic relations with China while greatly reducing the risk of war.

Abandoning the failed policies of the past several decades, bringing in Tom Brady-like new talent, and maintaining a strong military will allow President Biden to end our decades-long foreign policy losing streak.

 

18. ‘The Things They Carried’ author Tim O’Brien on his life’s work, trauma & confronting mortality

militarytimes.com · by J.D. Simkins · March 1, 2021

Yes, his book The Things they Carried was influential and thought provoking. I look forward to seeing the documentary,

 

19. The Relentless Pursuit of America

thecipherbrief.com

I wish most Americans could accept this conclusion.

“In America we find our strength and security in each other, first and foremost as Americans. You have a seat at the table. This is not for someone else to do. Acknowledge misinformation and see it for what it is. Social media has given you the power of the pen. You now have an unprecedented responsibility to understand, research, read and be smart on what you’re sharing. Put down your phone and have a calm, kneecap-to-kneecap conversation. It’s no longer enough to simply be an idle bystander. The survival of our Nation as we know it depends on what is and always has been, the decisive advantage in America; Americans and their relentless pursuit of “America”. “

 

20. The Last Stop Before Thermopylae

amgreatness.com · by Max Morton · February 24, 2021

My response to a friend who sent this to me. There is so much more to say about this essay but I thought I would share my initial thoughts.

Thank you for flagging this. 

Like you there are parts that strike me in a good way and others not so much. I think at the very foundation of his argument is the culture war. He is saying we have two distinct cultures in America.

I still believe in our system (and I think the author does too deep down as he is advocating grass roots political action to create change and not some call for violent overthrow despite the hyperbole he uses to describe the threats throughout the article).

I think in general there is merit to the description of the two political sides but it is too simplistic and he paints everyone on both sides with too broad a brush (but of course he must do that to make his arguments both simple and strong.). Ask yourself where we fit into this? I think we come down partly on both sides which I think is where his argument falls down. While there is of course a ruling elite so to speak, I think there are more people in government, in academia, in the military, and in the intelligence community, in law enforcement who still have "traditional" values (Family-oriented, self-reliant, and armed, traditional Americans. And among the traditional side there are many who are not technically incompetent who work in areas that would be consider part of the elite. 

Lastly his grassroots prescription has many hints of Saul Alinsky the communist/socialist community organizer. There is some irony in that. (But I always recommend his Rules for Radicals because those rules have application in any political movement and not just communist/socialist ones. - and they are particularly useful when applied to unconventional warfare).

This is important food for thought but I think we have to make better arguments. And while some of the solutions have great merit I think there is more to be discussed and more to be done. But I am not ready to declare democracy or our federal democratic republic dead despite the current challenges. Maybe I am too naive (or a true believer) but I believe our Constitution and our traditions offer us a way forward through the current morass.

 

21. The Republican revolt against democracy, explained in 13 charts

Vox · by Zack Beauchamp · March 1, 2021

Yes, a clickbait title from the liberal publication, Vox. Some food for thought that will upset about 30% of the population.

 

--------------

 

"The death of democracy is not likely to be an assassination from ambush. It will be a slow extinction from apathy, indifference, and undernourishment." 

- Robert M. Hutchins

 

"The President may indeed in one respect resemble the commander of an army in peace, but in another and more essential sense he resembles the commander of a ship at sea. He must have a helm to grasp, a course to steer, a port to seek."

- Henry Brooks Adams

 

"Extremism in defense of liberty is not a vice, but I denounce political extremism, of the left or the right, based on duplicity, falsehood, fear, violence and threats when they endanger liberty."

- George W. Romney

03/01/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Mon, 03/01/2021 - 11:17am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. U.S. Enlists Allies to Counter China’s Technology Push

2. Joe Biden’s Mixed Iran Messages

3. 'There's a degree of mistrust': a third of US military personnel refuse Covid vaccine

4. At pivotal moment in Afghanistan war, Biden weighs a dilemma about future of US troop involvement

5. The Pentagon’s sexual assault review committee wants troop input on policy and culture change

6. Powerplay: America eyes ICBM-killing ships

7. Hyten: US Must Broaden Its Strategic Deterrence Concept — and Keep Its ICBMs

8. ISIS and Al-Qaeda’s Sub-Saharan Affiliates Are Poised for Growth in 2021

9. ICAS  Spring Symposium Libertas - The Honourable Admiral Philip S Davidson, US Navy

10. China Charges Ahead With a National Digital Currency

11.  China to strengthen global influence campaign amid rising discontent: Report

12. Space Force Should Embrace the Natural Inclusivity of Space Nerds

13. India considers long-term economic ties with the Philippines, to boost Indo-Pacific initiative

14. The soft but unmatched power of US foreign exchange programs

15. Can the United States Prevent a War over Taiwan?

16. BYU Professors Create Ethics Field Guide To Help US Special Forces

17. Desert Storm at 30: Aerospace Power and the U.S. Military

18. China Appears to Warn India: Push Too Hard and the Lights Could Go Out

19. Xi Jinping says China has a legal problem: finding the lawyers to defend its interests abroad

20. Avril Haines Takes Over As Intelligence Chief At 'A Challenging Time'

21. The Mole and Me (Robert Hanssen and the psychiatrist)

22. Royal Marines take on sabotage raids & spying to help ease pressure on SAS & SBS

23. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 1, 2021 | SOF News

 

1. U.S. Enlists Allies to Counter China’s Technology Push

WSJ · by Bob Davis

There is no going it alone against China.

 

2. Joe Biden’s Mixed Iran Messages

WSJ · by The Editorial Board

I wonder why no one seems to mention that Kim Jong-un and his top officials are studying everything we say and do regarding Iran.

We must consider how the regime is going to act and react. It will seek to exploit what it can from the US-Iran situation.

If we lift sanctions on Iran it is likely the north will not even agree to talk without actual sanctions relief first or at least a very public promise of sanctions relief in return for talks. Our negotiating leverage will be undercut significantly with north Korea if we lift sanctions on Iran.

 

3. 'There's a degree of mistrust': a third of US military personnel refuse Covid vaccine

The Guardian · by Oliver Milman · February 27, 2021

One third? What is wrong with our active duty service members?

 

4. At pivotal moment in Afghanistan war, Biden weighs a dilemma about future of US troop involvement

militarytimes.com · by Robert Burns · February 26, 2021

Should I stay or should go? (to the tune of music by the Clash). The chorus is appropriate:

“Should I stay or should I go now?

Should I stay or should I go now?

If I go, there will be trouble

And if I stay it will be double

So come on and let me know”

 

5. The Pentagon’s sexual assault review committee wants troop input on policy and culture change

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · February 28, 2021

Excerpts:

“Details about who else will sit on the committee and how they will conduct their work were not available, but Rosenthal said that travel to installations will likely be part of the plan, as well as an online resource where service members can share their stories and insights.

“This commission says to that service member, you do belong in this military...and it’s our job to make this climate safe for you to be here,” she said.

The committee’s top priority is accountability for sexual assault, she said, but the team will also be looking at climate, culture and prevention.”

 

6. Powerplay: America eyes ICBM-killing ships

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · February 27, 2021

This would seem to have some real promise. I hope we can develop these capabilities.

 

7. Hyten: US Must Broaden Its Strategic Deterrence Concept — and Keep Its ICBMs

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Excerpts:

“Hyten cautioned that such a move would radically change the balance of nuclear deterrence since the United States and Russia together possess far more nuclear weapons than does China. “If you go to that kind of number, all of a sudden China becomes a peer adversary and maybe even a superior adversary in their nuclear capability and we don’t understand their nuclear doctrine and that puts you in a difficult place. So with that ground-based leg that overall deterrence, especially with China, is really challenged.”

Kingston Reif, the director for disarmament and threat reduction policy at the Arms Control Association, took issue with Hyten’s logic. “Why would Russia risk attacking the U.S. homeland with nuclear weapons when at least 700 U.S. warheads would remain at sea to respond — to say nothing about any remaining bomber forces? Gen. Hyten alludes to the potential unforeseen emergence of a vulnerability to the submarine force. But in that case, silo-based ICBMs would not provide a reliable hedge given their vulnerability.”

Said Reif, whatever benefits ICBMs have, “They can be had at lower numbers and by deferring the development of a new ICBM. Life-extended Minuteman III missiles can get blown up in their silos by incoming Russian ICBMs less expensively than new GBSD missiles."

 

8. ISIS and Al-Qaeda’s Sub-Saharan Affiliates Are Poised for Growth in 2021

defenseone.com · by Colin P. Clarke

A survey of the threats.

 

9. . ICAS  Spring Symposium Libertas - The Honourable Admiral Philip S Davidson, US Navy

Register online here.

 

10. China Charges Ahead With a National Digital Currency

The New York Times · by Nathaniel Popper and Cao Li  · March 1, 2021

One of the lines of effort to try to replace the dollar as the reserve currency?

Excerpts:

“Beyond those ambitions, the eCNY could immediately give the Chinese government more power to monitor finance flows because a digital currency system can record every transaction. That poses privacy concerns, with China having used many tools in the past to crack down on dissidents.

“If I cannot buy you a coffee without the government knowing about it, I do worry about what this could mean,” Mr. Prasad said.

Ms. Huang, the business strategist in Shenzhen, said she already assumes that most of her data can be tracked and has gotten used to it.

 

11. China to strengthen global influence campaign amid rising discontent: Report

hindustantimes.com · March 1, 2021

Excerpts:

“According to Lin, the scope of the CPC's global influence campaign encompasses politics, economics, the military and education including Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the more than 500 Confucius Institutes all over the world.

The CPC hopes to export its cultural values and ideologies to other countries through these Confucius Institutes and to lure developing countries to its side with money through the BRI, he said.

Lin pointed out that the CPC's united front tactics evolve through time and that the party now uses the popular app TikTok to air political ads, reaching people in as many as 150 countries around the world.

Another social media platform worth watching for the CPC's influence campaign is the Clubhouse, he

Chinese President Xi Jinping, center, and other Chinese leaders look at a display of lunar samples retrieved from the moon by China's Chang'e 5 lunar lander at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.”

 

12. Space Force Should Embrace the Natural Inclusivity of Space Nerds

defenseone.com · by Sarah Mineiro · February 28, 2021

I thought from the title this would be from the Onion or the Duffelblog but it is not.

Space Force Should Embrace the Natural Inclusivity of Space Nerds

 

13. India considers long-term economic ties with the Philippines, to boost Indo-Pacific initiative

theprint.in · March 1, 2021

Excerpts:

“According to sources, India is planning such mini-trade deals with those ASEAN countries with which it does not have a trade pact. New Delhi is doing this to better integrate itself in ASEAN’s supply chain networks and development in trade infrastructure since it is not a part of the Regional Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) that is expected to come into effect later this year.

The RCEP is a mega trade pact between ASEAN member states (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) and its five trading partners — China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

In 2019, India had walked out of the RCEP over concerns that Chinese goods and services could flood its markets.

At a recent business conference, organised by Confederation of Industry (CII) and Philippines Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), India’s Ambassador to the Philippines Shambhu S. Kumaran said the new strategic construct of Indo-Pacific is a key focus for both countries and that the PTA will help in deepening ties between the two sides.

Meanwhile, sources added, the PTA will also be a “step in the right direction” to boost India’s ‘Act East Policy’, which is aimed at reducing China’s growing influence in the region.

In infrastructure development, Indian companies such as the Adani Group, GMR, L&T and IRCON among others are also exploring investment opportunities in potential sectors such as railways, airports, shipbuilding, ports and urban infrastructure in the Philippines.”

 

14. The soft but unmatched power of US foreign exchange programs

The Hill · by Paula Dobriansky, Ed Gabriel and Marisa Lino · February 25, 2021

The soft but unmatched power of US foreign exchange programs

 

15. Can the United States Prevent a War over Taiwan?

warontherocks.com · by Robert D. Blackwill and. Philip Zelikow· March 1, 2021

I certainly hope so. But as we all know the best way to prevent war is to be prepared for one (or more).

To the authors' conclusions we must prepare for the enemy's most likely and most dangerous course of action with the proper balance between the two.

Excerpts;

“We stress that our proposal could not be successful in the absence of advance coordination and preparation with, at a minimum, Taiwan and Japan. That means the United States must listen to their preferences. If they argue for other approaches, then they have to recognize, accept, and be willing to act upon the responsibilities and risks that go with those approaches. On the other hand, if they join the United States to prepare the further plans envisioned in our fourth option, that joint planning would help unite their societies in more common readiness for joint action.

One concern we have heard is that our report is overly worried about Chinese military dangers. Instead, we should focus on “gray zone” ways China might pressure Taiwan, since these are more likely. Yet we notice that China tried incremental pressure in Xinjiang, but it was counterproductive, and the People’s Republic of China then finally decided to wield the hammer. We notice that China tried incremental pressure in Hong Kong too, but it was counterproductive, and Beijing then finally decided to wield the hammer. Now we notice that China is trying incremental pressure in Taiwan, but it has had counterproductive effects in Taiwan’s politics. And China will now … ?

We would like to be wrong about the possible seriousness of a coming Taiwan crisis. We hope we have exaggerated the danger. We just cannot convince ourselves that the ominous clouds we see gathering are not really there.

 

16.  BYU Professors Create Ethics Field Guide To Help US Special Forces

ksltv.com · February 24, 2021

I had not heard about this effort. I have not found a copy of the "A Special Operations Forces Ethics Field Guide" yet. I would like to take a look at the 13 "battle drills."

Interestingly I found this from 2019: Federal Contract Opportunity for SOF Ethics Field Guide H9240019RSOFEFG.  

I also found Pete Dillion's 1992 MMAS thesis: Ethical Decision Making on the Battlefield: an analysis of Training for U.S. Army Special Forces

Video at the link.

 

17. Desert Storm at 30: Aerospace Power and the U.S. Military

warontherocks.com · by David Deptula · March 01, 2021

From our nation's preeminent airpower expert.

 

18. China Appears to Warn India: Push Too Hard and the Lights Could Go Out

The New York Times · by David E. Sanger and Emily Schmall · February 28, 2021

Sounds like a Chinese version of north Korean Blackmail diplomacy (with Chinese characteristics).

 

19. Xi Jinping says China has a legal problem: finding the lawyers to defend its interests abroad

SCMP · by Jun Mai · March 01, 2021

Lawyers do not want to be complicit in Chinese "Lawfare?"

 

20. Avril Haines Takes Over As Intelligence Chief At 'A Challenging Time'

NPR · by Greg Myre · February 28, 2021

She is living the Chinese curse: "may you live in interesting times."

 

21. The Mole and Me (Robert Hanssen and the psychiatrist)

spytalk.co · by David Charney

I have not yet watched this documentary.

 

22.  Royal Marines take on sabotage raids & spying to help ease pressure on SAS & SBS

The Sun · by Jerome Starkey · March 1, 2021

Hmmm.... UK and US SOF similarities?

 

23. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 1, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by John Friberg · March 1, 2021

Another excellent SOF roll-up from John Friberg.

 

----------------

 

In honor of the Korean March 1st (Samil) Movement in 1919 and the reported 7,509 people killed, 15,849 wounded, and 46,303 arrested:

"We herewith proclaim the independence of Korea and the liberty of the Korean people. This we proclaim to all the nations of the world in witness of human equality. This we proclaim to our descendants so that they may enjoy in perpetuity their inherent right to nationhood. In as much as this proclamation originates from our five-thousand-year history, in as much as it springs from the loyalty of twenty million people, in as much as it affirms our yearning for the advancement of everlasting liberty, in as much as it expresses our desire to take part in the global reform rooted in human conscience, it is the solemn will of heaven, the great tide of our age, and a just act necessary for the co-existence of all humankind. Therefore, no power in this world can obstruct or suppress it!"

"Mansai"

- Read by Chung Jae-yong on March 1, 1919, along with 33 Korean activists who formed the core of the Samil Movement

 

"A single feat of daring can alter the whole conception of what is possible." 

- Graham Greene

 

"The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it." 

- Henry David Thoreau

03/01/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Mon, 03/01/2021 - 10:59am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Nation marks subdued Independence Movement anniversary amid pandemic (Korea)

2. Rallies are small and wet on March 1 in Seoul

3. Full text of President Moon Jae-in's speech on 102nd March 1 Independence Movement Day

4. Undying Exploits Performed for Victorious Advance of Socialist Cause (north Korea)

5. Rodong Sinmun Calls for Upholding Slogan "One for All and All for One!"

6. More Oath-taking Meetings Held across Country

7. Kim Jong Un says ‘sorry, not sorry’

8. Moon says S. Korea ready to talk with Japan anytime, urges separation of history with future-oriented ties

9. Moon's continued two-track approach unlikely to help improve ties with Japan

10. Apologize to victims: Ramseyer should also withdraw paper on sex slaves

11. South Korea would benefit from joining a Quad+

 

1. Nation marks subdued Independence Movement anniversary amid pandemic (Korea)

en.yna.co.kr · by 심선아 · March 1, 2021

A day to remember Korean history. (this also makes it a slow news day in Korea).

 

2. Rallies are small and wet on March 1 in Seoul

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Pyun Gwng-Hyn and Esther Chung 

 

3.  Full text of President Moon Jae-in's speech on 102nd March 1 Independence Movement Day

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · March 1, 2021

 

4. Undying Exploits Performed for Victorious Advance of Socialist Cause (north Korea)

kcnawatch.org· March 01, 2021

No recognition of Samil Day in north Korea. No speech from Kim Jong-un.

But give us more Kim Jong-il:

The people of the DPRK as well as the progressive peoples of the world yearn for Chairman Kim Jong Il more ardently than ever despite the passage of time.

​There should be no doubt that north Korea remains not only a rogue power but a self-proclaimed revolutionary nation that seeks to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

​Excerpts:

“Since imperialists and all sorts of reactionary forces joined hands with each other to hinder socialism in its progress and challenge it Kim Jong Il regarded it as an important requirement for the successful accomplishment of the socialist cause to strengthen the international unity and solidarity of revolutionary parties and energetically led the struggle to achieve it.

The Pyongyang Declaration on defending and advancing the cause of socialism was adopted in 1992. It provided a program for the struggle of revolutionary parties in the world.

The Pyongyang Declaration delivered a telling blow to the anti-socialist maneuvers of imperialists and revved up the struggle of revolutionary peoples for the rebuilding of socialism further.

Our Party has been a dignified revolutionary party of Juche which leads the cause of socialism. The cause advances victoriously along its path, surmounting its hardship and trials.”

5. Rodong Sinmun Calls for Upholding Slogan "One for All and All for One!"

kcnawatch.org· March 01, 2021

Maybe north Korea is embracing its inner QAnon: ("where we go one we go all.")

 

6. More Oath-taking Meetings Held across Country

kcnawatch.org· March 01, 2021

Motivational speaking and motivational meetings, north Korean style.

 

7. Kim Jong Un says ‘sorry, not sorry’

asiatimes.com · by M Markus V Garlauskas · February 25, 2021

Sigh. Yes Markus is right. Will Kim change his approach? That is why I harp on these two questions:

 

·     Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime? 

 

·     In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK? 

 

8. Moon says S. Korea ready to talk with Japan anytime, urges separation of history with future-oriented ties

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · March 1, 2021

I hate to beat the horse but both Moon and Suga must pledge to put national security and national prosperity as the top priorities for their countries while managing the historical issues.

 

9. Moon's continued two-track approach unlikely to help improve ties with Japan

The Korea Times · March 1, 2021

Excerpts:

"If the Korean government really wanted to restore the strained relations, Moon should have offered to meet Suga without preconditions," the professor added.

Since late last year, President Moon has shown a shift in tone and rhetoric toward ties with Japan, which many believe is because he is seeking to take advantage of the Tokyo Summer Olympics to revive the stalled U.S.-North Korea nuclear talks and his peace initiative of engaging Pyongyang.

The President confirmed the speculation.

"The Tokyo Summer Olympic Games scheduled for this year?may serve as an opportunity for dialogue between Korea and Japan, South and North Korea, North Korea and Japan, and North Korea and the U.S. Korea will work together with Japan for the success of the Olympics," he said.

Other than the North's Olympic participation, Moon did not talk much about deadlocked inter-Korean ties and the North Korea nuclear issue in his speech. The Kim Jong-un regime has refused South Korean offers for cross-border exchanges and cooperation following a failed summit with the U.S. in February 2019.

The President just vowed to maintain efforts for denuclearization and permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula, while hoping that the North will participate in the Northeast Asia Cooperation Initiative for Infectious Disease Control and Public Health that has already been joined by the U.S., China, Russia and Mongolia.”

 

10. Apologize to victims: Ramseyer should also withdraw paper on sex slaves

The Korea Times · March 1, 2021

Yes.

Apologize to victims

 

11.  South Korea would benefit from joining a Quad+

csis.org · by KF-VUB Korea Chair, CSDS, Brussels School of Governance.

Yes it would. While it may not lead to Chinese economic warfare in retaliation, a Quad+ must be ready to come to the defense of the South if it does.

Excerpts:

“But Quad+ membership need not lead to Chinese economic retaliation. After all, Japan is one of the founding members of Quad and its relations with China have not suffered as a result of it. Meanwhile, Australia’s current trade conflict with China is not directly linked to its membership of Quad. An expanded Quad would be less China-focused, which would make it less likely that Beijing would retaliate.

Plus, Seoul has no intention to suddenly take a confrontational approach towards Beijing. There are areas for cooperation and mutual benefit that South Korea will continue to emphasize. RCEP proves this. The still-open invitation for Xi Jinping to visit South Korea also does.

In any case, Seoul could insist that Washington provides diplomatic and – if necessary – economic support were Beijing to retaliate as a result of South Korea joining a Quad+. This would help assuage possible South Korean concerns about joining the organization.

As former Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha stated last September, South Korea has ‘leverage’ in the U.S.-China rivalry and can use ‘partnerships with like-minded friends and countries’ to promote its foreign policy interests. Joining an expanded Quad would add a new partnership to Seoul’s toolkit, with its leverage helping to shield it from any potential negative effects from membership. Everything considered, joining the Quad+ would be a beneficial move for South Korea.”

------------

 

In honor of the Korean March 1st (Samil) Movement in 1919 and the reported 7,509 people killed, 15,849 wounded, and 46,303 arrested:

"We herewith proclaim the independence of Korea and the liberty of the Korean people. This we proclaim to all the nations of the world in witness of human equality. This we proclaim to our descendants so that they may enjoy in perpetuity their inherent right to nationhood. In as much as this proclamation originates from our five-thousand-year history, in as much as it springs from the loyalty of twenty million people, in as much as it affirms our yearning for the advancement of everlasting liberty, in as much as it expresses our desire to take part in the global reform rooted in human conscience, it is the solemn will of heaven, the great tide of our age, and a just act necessary for the co-existence of all humankind. Therefore, no power in this world can obstruct or suppress it!"

"Mansai"

- Read by Chung Jae-yong on March 1, 1919, along with 33 Korean activists who formed the core of the Samil Movement

 

"A single feat of daring can alter the whole conception of what is possible." 

- Graham Greene

 

"The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it." 

- Henry David Thoreau

02/28/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Sun, 02/28/2021 - 12:16pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. China expected to unveil hike in military budget as tensions rise

2. Five Reasons to Be Wary of a New Domestic Terrorism Law

3. Marines, Infantry Most Highly Represented Among Veterans Arrested After Capitol Riot

4. Younger Military Personnel Reject Vaccine, in Warning for Commanders and the Nation

5. Son Tay Raid commander Leroy Manor dies at 100

6. Psychological ‘signature’ for extremist mind found

7. The rivalry between America and China will hinge on South-East Asia

8. Opinion | America is becoming more imperial than many empires were. That’s a mistake.

9. The Long Arm of U.S. Law: The Patriot Act, the Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2020 and Foreign Banks

10. Military divers wage war on trash

11. New guidance for federal hiring and firing puts less emphasis on marijuana use as a disqualifier

 

1. China expected to unveil hike in military budget as tensions rise

japantimes.co.jp · February 28, 2021

Excerpts:

“If Beijing does announce a sharp increase, it would signal an intention to intensify military operations against Taiwan or assert Chinese sovereignty over other disputed territory in the South China Sea or East China Sea, Babbage and other Western analysts said.

Wang Xiangsui, a retired senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army and a professor at Beihang University in Beijing, said a rumor last year that the United States was considering a plan to use MQ-9 drones to attack islands or reefs in the South China Sea in a so-called “October Surprise” would have given China a keener sense of crisis about the security situation.

Beijing took the rumor seriously enough to seek formal clarification from the Pentagon and subsequently publicized U.S. denials, he added.

Wang said U.S. moves to restrict Chinese access to military equipment and technology would force China to invest more on homegrown research and development.

“The U.S. military wants to preserve its overwhelming advantage in nuclear and space, and China wants to upset this. More spending is definitely needed,” Wang said.

 

2. Five Reasons to Be Wary of a New Domestic Terrorism Law

rand.org · by Brian Michael Jenkins

Wise words form one of our nation's terrorism experts.

 

3. Marines, Infantry Most Highly Represented Among Veterans Arrested After Capitol Riot

military.com · by Gina Harkins and Hope Hodge Seck · February 26, 2021

Yes let's designate the infantry an extremist organization (note my extreme sarcasm).

Seriously:

Jessica Watkins, who served in the Army infantry and is an alleged member of the Oath Keepers, is accused of holding a training course before the Capitol riot.

Perhaps she served in an infantry division. There are still few women who have served in the Infantry. I think most women who have been in the infantry are still serving in the infantry since it has only been recently that women have been able to complete infantry training and be granted infantry as a military occupational specialty.

I think this is a more accurate description. Women did not serve in the military occupation specialty infantry in 2002

Prosecutors initially charged Watkins and two other Oath Keepers who allegedly planned to take over the Capitol. These three defendants are veterans; Watkins served in an infantry unit in the US Army for three years and was deployed to Afghanistan in 2002, according to the Pentagon.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/26/politics/jessica-watkins-oath-keepers-capitol-attack/index.html

So now I question the entire infantry statistic in this article. Serving in an infantry unit (e.g., 1st Infantry Division, 2d Infantry Division, 3d Infantry Division, etc.) is not the same as serving in the infantry. There are lots of non-intrantrymen serving in infantry units.

 

4.  Younger Military Personnel Reject Vaccine, in Warning for Commanders and the Nation

The New York Times · by Jennifer Steinhauer · February 27, 2021

This is really troubling. Have our young troops been influenced by disinformation?

I am reminded of Giap's strategy of Dau Tranh.

Dan Van- Action among your people: Total mobilization of propaganda, motivational & organizational measures to manipulate internal masses and fighting units. Example: Intensive indoctrination and total mobilization of all civilian and military personnel in North Vietnam.

Binh Van- Action among enemy military: Subversion, proselytizing, and propaganda to encourage desertion, defection and lowered morale among enemy troops. Example: contribution to large number of South Vietnamese Army deserters and draft evaders in early years.

Dich Van- Action among enemy's people: Total propaganda effort to sow discontent, defeatism, dissent and disloyalty among enemy's population. Involves creation and/or manipulation of front groups and sympathizers. Example: work among South Vietnamese and US media, activist and academic circles.

Let's influence the young troops so the US military will not gain herd immunity. Hyperbole perhaps, but we should give this some thought.

 

5. Son Tay Raid commander Leroy Manor dies at 100

airforcetimes.com · by Harm Venhuizen · February 27, 2021

The passing of another great American. Rest in peace General.

 

6. Psychological ‘signature’ for extremist mind found

asiatimes.com · by Fred Lewsey · February 28, 2021

This will not go over well and will play right into some extremist narratives when there are calls to use a "psychological signature" to identify extremists - this will give "big brother" new tools for repression. (note my snark - but we need to be wary of these kinds of studies and how they might be used (or, more importantly, misused)).

That said we should read this article and embark on some self reflection and reflection on those we know.

 

7. The rivalry between America and China will hinge on South-East Asia

The Economist· February 27, 2021

Conclusion: "To help South-East Asia avoid slipping into China’s orbit, America should encourage it to keep its options open and build counterweights to Chinese influence. One mechanism is more regional integration. As it is, trade and investment among the countries of South-East Asia outweigh the business they do with China. Another mechanism is to strengthen ties with other Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea—one ASEAN has rightly embraced. Above all, America should not fall into the trap of trying to force its members to pick sides. That is the one thing South-East Asia is determined to resist."

The battle for China’s backyard

 

8. Opinion | America is becoming more imperial than many empires were. That’s a mistake.

The Washington Post· by Fareed Zakaria · February 25, 2021

I too am saddened by the over "securitization" ( as Zakaira writes, hyper-securitization and “thickening” ) of our capitol and government. 

Although it may seem counterintuitive now is the time to be doubling down on American ideals of freedom and civil liberties. Our over-reaction to events and our imposition of  questionable population and resources measures to prevent future events may have adverse second and third order effects and may actually make us less secure.

 

9. The Long Arm of U.S. Law: The Patriot Act, the Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2020 and Foreign Banks

lawfareblog.com· by Zia M. Faruqui, Jessie K. Liu, Noha K. Moustafa · February 23, 2021

Excerpts:

“The Patriot Act authorized subpoenas to foreign banks for records related to correspondent accounts, “including records maintained outside of the United States relating to the deposit of funds into the foreign bank,” and empowered the Department of Justice and the Department of the Treasury to bar a foreign bank that refused to comply from correspondent banking in the U.S.

At the time of the North Korea investigation, there was little precedent to guide the D.C. prosecutors, but they decided to plow forward anyway. By late 2017, they were ready to move, and on Christmas Eve, the U.S. attorney made a special trip into the office to sign a Patriot Act subpoena to the third bank, kicking off 18 months of negotiations and litigation that ultimately led to a sweeping U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit opinion in 2019 upholding the subpoena. On the first day of 2021, Congress passed groundbreaking legislation, over the president’s veto, expanding the ability of U.S. authorities to obtain foreign bank records. The pleadings in the Patriot Act subpoena litigation were unsealed recently, and they provide many clues about how the U.S. government will use its new subpoena authority, how foreign banks might respond and how courts will rule if such subpoenas are challenged.

...

At the same time, it remains unclear how frequently U.S. prosecutors will seek to use this expanded subpoena authority. Since Patriot Act subpoenas inevitably implicate international relations, they cannot be issued without a significant degree of intragovernment consultation and coordination, including written approval from the Office of International Affairs in the Justice Department’s Criminal Division, which manages the department’s relations with its international counterparts. Moreover, although the federal courts in D.C. upheld the Patriot Act subpoena, they also made clear that their holdings were grounded in their conclusions that China’s compliance with its MLAA obligations had been unreliable and that the critical U.S. national security interests at stake, involving North Korea’s nuclear program, outweighed the comity concerns raised by the subpoena. During a floor debate on the AMLA amendments’ reach and application, Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer urged the Treasury and Justice departments “only to use this new authority where a foreign bank operates in a jurisdiction as to which no MLAT or other information-sharing agreement exists or where the relevant foreign government has not satisfied its obligations under an MLAT or other information-sharing agreement.” In addition, in the nearly 20 years since the passage of the Patriot Act, there has been only one other publicly known issuance of such a subpoena.

...

That said, the AMLA unquestionably gives U.S. prosecutors more leverage in seeking to obtain documents held by foreign banks overseas. The new provisions in the National Defense Authorization Act geared toward fighting money laundering, terrorist financing and sanctions, combined with the Congress’s willingness to override the president’s veto, signal bipartisan concern about these threats and readiness to grant investigators and prosecutors tools to combat them. Much of the practical effect of the new statute may well take place behind the scenes—in negotiations between banks and U.S. prosecutors, banks and their local authorities over document productions, and policymakers in both countries. The one thing that is certain is that there will be much more time spent on, and attention paid to, Patriot Act subpoenas than at any other time in the past 20 twenty years of their existence.

 

10. Military divers wage war on trash

keysnews.com · by Citizen staff report

 

11. New guidance for federal hiring and firing puts less emphasis on marijuana use as a disqualifier

Stars and Stripes

New meaning to "smoke'em if you got'em?" Though I know that was not meant to be applied to lighting up in this way. (note my attempt at humor). I still would not go out and start using marijuana right away.

Excerpts:

“John Mahoney, a Washington-based lawyer who represents federal employees, said that when taking actions against employees for positive drug tests, agencies already consider a range of factors but that some "are pretty hard-core in disciplining employees."

"It is significant in that OPM is putting less emphasis on past marijuana use in terms of suitability determinations," he said in a phone interview. "This does mark the beginning of a trend in the federal sector of moving toward a less strict standard vis-à-vis marijuana use, and I expect that trend to continue."

He added, though, that federal applicants and employees still should understand that under the government's drug-free workplace policy, current marijuana use is prohibited and could be the basis for firing.”

 

---------------

 

"An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." 

- Thomas Paine

 

Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule -- and both commonly succeed, and are right." 

- H.L. Mencken

 

“Let me now take a more comprehensive view, and warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the spirit of party generally.”

- George Washington, George Washington's Farewell Address

 

02/28/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Sun, 02/28/2021 - 11:59am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. S. Korea, US near deal on sharing troop costs

2. N.K. workers stage pep rallies for new 5-year economic development plan

3. Harvard and former sex slaves

4. N. Korea's severe virus measures hinder humanitarian aid: State Dept.

5. New virus cases below 400 on fewer testing; virus curbs extended for 2 more weeks

6. North Korea’s mistranslated ‘shoot-to-kill’ border protection order

7. North Korean defector runs in UK election to defend ‘voiceless’

8. North Korea’s Missed Opportunity: The Unique, Dovish Moment of the Overlapping Trump and Moon Presidencies

9.  Joe Biden Should Make a Peace Offer to North Korea

 

1. S. Korea, US near deal on sharing troop costs

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · February 28, 2021

Good. Again, I hope the action ROK and US diplomats have crafted the right information campaign to inform the press, public, politicos and public on why this is good for the people of both nations.

 

2. N.K. workers stage pep rallies for new 5-year economic development plan

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · February 28, 2021

Go team. Go team Kim Jong-un.

 

3. Harvard and former sex slaves

The Korea Times· by Mark Peterson · February 28, 2021

An interesting defense of Harvard while criticizing the professor's poor scholarship.

 

4. N. Korea's severe virus measures hinder humanitarian aid: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · February 28, 2021

Again, to beat the horse more dead, these "severe" COVID measures are designed to further repress the Korean people to maintain control over them. The regime could make it easier for humanitarian assistance and of course it could choose to provide resources to care for the people but Kim Jong-un has made the deliberate policy decision to prioritize resources to develop nuclear weapons at the expense of the Korean people living in the north.

 

5.  New virus cases below 400 on fewer testing; virus curbs extended for 2 more weeks

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · February 28, 2021

Is South Korea applying a US lesson? To lessen the number of cases simply reduce testing?

 

6. North Korea’s mistranslated ‘shoot-to-kill’ border protection order

eastasiaforum.org · by Martin Weiser · February 26, 2021

Interesting analysis that illustrates the difficulty in analyzing north Korea. But it does not reduce my assessment of the evil nature of the Kim family regime. My bias remains: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

7. North Korean defector runs in UK election to defend ‘voiceless’

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · February 25, 2021

Excerpts:

“The 52-year-old is believed to be the first defector from the North to run for office outside of the Korean Peninsula. Park is standing as a candidate for the Conservative Party, which she joined in 2016.

She is aware that many people will question her alignment with the center-right party, which is viewed as more anti-immigration than others. “What is important to me is freedom, justice, family life and happiness, the very beliefs valued by the Conservatives,” she said. “These values are what North Korean people have always desired.”

If elected in May, Park, formerly a teacher in North Korea, would like to focus on bolstering the town’s education system and its environment. She believes educating young people is critical for the country’s future and its prosperity.

At the same time she would like to address human rights, based on her experience as a human rights advocate and her unique plight as a North Korean defector.”

 

8. North Korea’s Missed Opportunity: The Unique, Dovish Moment of the Overlapping Trump and Moon Presidencies

kida.re.kr

Interesting analysis from Professor Robert Kelly and Airus Derr. The 20 page journal article can be downloaded here

It provides some interesting perspectives about the "failures" both administrations and concludes with this ominous assessment: "We argue that this failure will, at minimum, encourage the reemergence of establishmentarian, status quo policies under the new American administration of President Joseph Biden. Further, North Korea’s recalcitrance in this unique dovish period will likely push the “Overton Window” of acceptable counter-North Korea policy options rightward. Harsher measures will be considered in the wake of engagement’s failure."

 

9. Joe Biden Should Make a Peace Offer to North Korea

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · February 27, 2021

I am 100% in support of peace on the Korean peninsula. But it cannot be at the expense of the security of the ROK or the sacrifice of US interests.  

I would actually be in full support of a negotiation of a peace treaty between the north and South since they are the two belligerents of the Korean Civil War. This was recognized in UN Security Council Resolutions (82-85) in the 1950s and remain in effect today. They recognized the north as the aggressor who attacked the South and called on member nations to come to the aid of the South to help protect its freedom. The US came to the defense of the South through the United Nations. the US did not declare war on the north. China supported the north with it Chinese People's Volunteers and did not declare war on the South or the US.

One problem with this is neither north nor the South recognize each other and both claim sovereignty over the entire peninsula and all the Korean people. So for them to enter into a peace treaty they would have to recognize each other and require changes to their constitution. While it would be a challenge in the South to do this Kim Jong-un could easily direct a change. However, such a change would undermine the entire legitimacy of the Kim family regime and remove the fundamental strategic objective of the regime which is to complete the revolution and dominate the entire Korean peninsula under its rule in order to sustain the Kim family regime. 

Furthermore, in any of the proposals for some kind of peace regime or declaration of the end of the Korean there are no proposals or thought given to reduce the threat to the ROK from the world's 4th largest Army that is postured to attack the South with 70% of its forces deployed between the DMZ and Pyongyang. A fundamental question is how will any peace regime protect the security of the ROK? A peace of paper will not prevent a north Korean attack.

That said, it took more than two years to negotiate an Armistice. It will take much longer to negotiate a peace treaty and even longer to get one approved by the requisite legislatures. That may not be a bad thing if they can use the negotiations to reduce tensions and the threats. Of course as shown with the 208 Comprehensive Military Agreement the regime has been unwilling to commit to agreed upon confidence building measures. It wis unlikely to do so as part of peace treaty negotiations. But I would be willing to try because such negotiations can continue to buy time to ward toward the resolution of the Korea question which must be the ultimate objective.

Lately, I would be very wary of the proposals from groups like 'Korea PeaceNow!" as they are not only making proposals that are favorable to the north, they will compromise the security of the South. Some members of this organization have personal connections to north Korean "handlers" from the United Front Department.

 

------------

 

"An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." 

- Thomas Paine

 

Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule -- and both commonly succeed, and are right." 

- H.L. Mencken

 

“Let me now take a more comprehensive view, and warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the spirit of party generally.”

- George Washington, George Washington's Farewell Address

02/27/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Sat, 02/27/2021 - 12:18pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Flip the gray zone script: How the US can customize its approach to China

2. Accountability for the Murder of Jamal Khashoggi - United States Department of State (implications for South Korea??)

3. How the Pentagon Got Inside ISIS’ Chemical Weapons Operation—and Ended It

4. F.B.I. Said to Have Singled Out Potential Assailant in Capitol Officer’s Death

5. FDD | Shifting Cocaine Routes Turn U.S. Ally Paraguay Into Main Transit Country

6. ByteDance agrees to $92 million privacy settlement with U.S. TikTok users

7. Criticism of Five Eyes points to flaws in China’s strategic thinking

8. Playing at War Games with China

9. Lawmakers Ask Big Cable Why They Let OANN and Newsmax Spread Disinformation

10. Facebook, Google, Twitter release industry code to fight spread of disinformation

11. AFP eyes more Tausugs for new brigade in war on terror in Sulu

12. FDD | Turkey’s Ziraat Bank Under Scrutiny

13. FDD | Russia-Turkey Pincer Movement Threatens Ecumenical Patriarchate’s Survival

14. China trying to redefine human rights in latest campaign, says D.C. analyst

15. Joe Biden’s Syria Airstrike Hit the Wrong Target

16. Where the bipartisanship may come: Foreign policy

17. How Biden Can Rally the World Against China

18. U.S. to Impose Sweeping Rule Aimed at China Technology Threats

19. Inside Xinjiang’s Prison State

20. Opinion | Why Are Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos So Interested in Space?

21. Erik Prince and the Failed Plot to Arm a CIA Asset-Turned-Warlord in Libya

22. Marine Forces Special Operations Command Celebrates 15th Anniversary

23. A Japanese Cult Believes Its Leader Is an Alien From Venus Is Speaking at CPAC

24. Extremism 'Has Reared Its Head' in Air Force Special Operations, General Says

25. Internet sleuths solve secret message on Perseverance rover's Mars parachute

 

1.Flip the gray zone script: How the US can customize its approach to China

Defense News · by Craig Singleton · February 26, 2021

From my FDD colleague, Craig Singleton, on the Pacific Deterrence Initiative.

Excerpts:

“PDI planners will also be hard-pressed to redefine what it means to be an “ally,” a term more germane to Europe than the Pacific. Stress testing our defense relationships will likely reveal that we have been over- or under-estimating their strength, having previously evaluated them through a conventional prism. PDI planners must also modify their risk tolerance to enable covert collaboration with certain partners, particularly those with close economic ties to China. Some partners, such as New Zealand, may come to surprise us with their ability to wield unconventional power in ways that other regional heavyweights cannot.

Lastly, the department’s internal machinery must be modernized to account for a China challenge that extends far beyond the Taiwan Strait. While the PDI nests within the department’s Indo-Pacific architecture, the same cannot be said for the PLA’s pursuits globally. Along with establishing new positions and processes to coordinate the department’s China-related efforts, the defense establishment must do better incorporating its cyber and special operators into these discussions.

While China has long valued out-of-the-box thinking, turning perceived weaknesses into strengths, the same cannot be said for the United States. If executed smartly, however, the PDI provides the U.S. with an opportunity to do just that.”

 

2. Accountability for the Murder of Jamal Khashoggi - United States Department of State (implications for South Korea??)

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken

This could have implications for South Korea and its new ‘anti-leaflet” amendment to the national security law that prohibits escapees from north Korea (or anyone) from sending information back into north Korea.  This theoretically could be applied to members of the Moon administration as well as national assembly members who passed the law.  Of course, it will depend on the next Country Report and how State describes the South Korea law as it was just passed in December.  But perhaps when our congress holds hearings on the law as some members plan to do, they could call on State officials to testify as to how they think the next report will treat the law (as the human rights and civil liberties violation that it is) and what that could mean for South Koran government officials.

 “I also have directed that the State Department fully report on any such extraterritorial activities by any government in our annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices.  The United States will continue to shine a light on any government that targets individuals, either domestically or extraterritorially, merely for exercising their human rights and fundamental freedoms.”

 

3. How the Pentagon Got Inside ISIS’ Chemical Weapons Operation—and Ended It

Politico · by Joby Warrick· February 27, 2021 

Quite a story. We should be proud of our military and intelligence community (and I would bet US diplomats also aided behind the scenes to ensure an Iraqi stay of execution for the ISIS bomb maker for as long as he cooperated).

 

4. F.B.I. Said to Have Singled Out Potential Assailant in Capitol Officer’s Death

The New York Times · February 26, 2021

Very interesting.  Bear spray as a cause of death?

Excerpt:

“In a significant breakthrough in the case, investigators have now pinpointed a person seen on video of the riot who attacked several officers with bear spray, including Officer Sicknick, according to the officials. And video evidence shows that the assailant discussed attacking officers with the bear spray beforehand, one of the officials said.

While investigators narrowed potential suspects seen in video footage to a single person this week, they have yet to identify the assailant by name.

 

5. FDD | Shifting Cocaine Routes Turn U.S. Ally Paraguay Into Main Transit Country

fdd.org · by Emanuele Ottolenghi · February 26, 2021

Excerpt: “Washington needs to invest more resources and toughen its diplomatic efforts with Paraguay in order to prevent it from becoming the next narco-state in Latin America. First and foremost, the United States should beef up its Drug Enforcement Administration presence in Asuncion, which to date remains minimal. Boosting cooperation with, and fostering a culture of regional cooperation among, local law enforcement and intelligence agencies should remain a priority. Finally, Washington should also leverage tools such as Global Magnitsky sanctions to crack down on local corrupt officials in cahoots with organized crime.”

 

6. ByteDance agrees to $92 million privacy settlement with U.S. TikTok users

mobile.reuters.com · February 25, 2021

Excerpt:

“The lawsuits claimed the TikTok app "infiltrates its users' devices and extracts a broad array of private data including biometric data and content that defendants use to track and profile TikTok users for the purpose of, among other things, ad targeting and profit."

The settlement was reached after "an expert-led inside look at TikTok's source code" and extensive mediation efforts, according to the motion seeking approval of the settlement.

ByteDance agrees to $92 million privacy settlement with U.S. TikTok users”

 

7. Criticism of Five Eyes points to flaws in China’s strategic thinking

aspistrategist.org.au · by John Coyne · February 26, 2021

The Global Times OpEd on Five Eyes and White Supremacy is here.  

Conclusion: The Global Times’ comical analysis is reminiscent of the 1950’s propaganda produced by the Soviet Union. The editorial also illustrates that one of the essential strategies for responding to the CCP’s attacks on multilateralism is a continued commitment to a rules-based order and the myriad possibilities it holds.

 

8. Playing at War Games with China

chasfreeman.net · by Chas Freeman

Excerpts:

“Doubling down on military competition with Beijing just gives its military-industrial complex a reason to up the ante and call our bluff. An arms race with China leads not to victory but to mutual impoverishment. As President Eisenhower reminded us sixty years ago, “every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.” And stoking China’s neighbors’ dependency on us rather than helping them become more self-reliant implicates them in our conflicts of interest with China without addressing their own. They need our diplomatic support even more than our military backing to work out a stable modus vivendi with China, which is not going away.

Our China policy should be part of a new and broader Asia strategy, not the main determinant of our relations with other Asian nations or the sole driver of our policies in the region. And to be able to hold our own with China, we must renew our competitive capacity and build a society that is demonstrably better governed, better educated, more egalitarian, more open, more innovative, and healthier as well as freer than all others.”

To paraphrase Napoleon, let China take its own path while we take our own. We need to fix our own problems before we try to fix China’s. If we Americans get our priorities right, we can once again be the nation to rise and astonish the world

 

9. Lawmakers Ask Big Cable Why They Let OANN and Newsmax Spread Disinformation

Vice

As much as I despise the ignorance and propaganda put out on these and other networks we need to be very careful about the actions congress might propose.  

Unfortunately there is a market for this type of information.

However, we need to keep in mind a fundamental American ideal:  "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - S.G. Tallentyre

 

10. Facebook, Google, Twitter release industry code to fight spread of disinformation

ABC.net.au · February 22, 2021

Democratic nations need to be careful about regulating the press, media, speech, and expression.

Excerpts:

“Reset Australia, an organisation working to counter digital threats to democracy, described the DIGI code as "pointless and shameless" and proposed in its place a public regulator with the power to issue fines and other penalties.

Reset Australia Executive Director Chris Cooper said companies such as Facebook were continuing to use algorithms that actively promote misinformation, despite committing to addressing the problem.

"This is a regulatory regime that would be laughed out of town if suggested by any other major industry," he said."Industry should never be allowed to just write its own rules."

 

11. AFP eyes more Tausugs for new brigade in war on terror in Sulu

newsinfo.inquirer.net · by Julie S. Alipala · February 25, 2021

The Tausugs are fierce fighters. It is better they are fighting for the Philippine military than joining the terrorists/insurgents. 

The AFP has a history of integrating rebels - after the 1996 peace agreement MNLF rebels were integrated in the Army. 

"Rebels" such as one of the early ASG leaders, the late Whab Akbar, was allowed to enter the political process and served three terms as governor of Baslian and then was assassinated in his first congressional term by his rival Gerry Salipudan, who had been a battalion commander in the MNLF. 

 

12.  FDD | Turkey’s Ziraat Bank Under Scrutiny

fdd.org · by Aykan Erdemir Turkey Program · February 26, 2021

Excerpts:

In the short run, Turkcell’s minority shareholders might actually find the stability provided by Erdoğan’s influence preferable to board infighting that had pushed investors away. Given Erdoğan’s track record, however, the current arrangement may prove risky in the long run, not only for the company but also for its shareholders. TWF, Ziraat Bank, and Turkcell are likely to be embroiled in the Turkish president’s bid to consolidate political and economic power through these entities and others.

U.S. regulators and prosecutors should continue to scrutinize Turkish entities Erdoğan uses to pursue his domestic and global agenda and the potential illicit transactions carried out through them. Resisting the Turkish president’s attempts to scuttle the ongoing federal case against Halkbank on charges of evading Iran sanctions would be a good start.

 

13.  FDD | Russia-Turkey Pincer Movement Threatens Ecumenical Patriarchate’s Survival

fdd.org · by Aykan Erdemir and John Lechner· February 26, 2021

Excerpts:

“The ecclesiastical debates witnessed today are nothing new. They reflect 18 centuries of tension between church politics and geopolitical realities in which, over two centuries, the contours of the various Orthodox patriarchates have tended to conform gradually to nation-state borders.

Western leaders take secularism so for granted that they do not fully appreciate the role churches can play in power politics, which diminishes their ability to counter moves by the likes of Putin and Erdogan.

This failure to recognise Bartholomew I’s quandary, which goes far beyond ecclesiastical infighting, reflects the transatlantic alliance’s inability to take the role of religious narrative in authoritarian regimes seriously, leaving vulnerable minorities at their mercy.

Western leaders would better serve the secular agendas of democracy, human rights and personal freedom by offering more robust support to the Ecumenical Patriarchate, caught in Russian and Turkish crosshairs.”

 

14. China trying to redefine human rights in latest campaign, says D.C. analyst

Newsweek · by John Feng · February 26, 2021

Excerpts:

"We oppose using human rights as an excuse to interfere in other countries' internal affairs," he said, while describing the Communist Party's work in Xinjiang as "countering violent terrorism and separatism."

China's foreign ministry reiterated Wang's remarks on Wednesday, saying "deradicalization measures" have prevented terrorist incidents in Xinjiang for four years.

The ministry also revealed that China has invited the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, to visit Xinjiang this year. Discussions about the trip were ongoing, it said.

Gorman, who is watching new media platforms likes TikTok and other technologies, is wary of how the Chinese model might play out in the global south.

She said: "There is high demand for technology and systems that address public security and promise efficiency, especially in the developing world.

"Among countries that may not have the strongest governance systems to start with, there's a risk that these efforts could reshape human rights from the ground up if democracies are not mindful," Gorman added.

 

15. Joe Biden’s Syria Airstrike Hit the Wrong Target

19fortyfive.com · by ByMichael Rubin · February 26, 2021

This is a critique in multiple areas.

 

16.  Where the bipartisanship may come: Foreign policy

startribune.com · by Trudy Rubin · February 26, 2021

I certainly hope so.  There is bipartisan criticism of the air strikes launched this week.

Where the bipartisanship may come: Foreign policy

It's a strategic necessity for politics to stop at the water's edge. 

 

17. How Biden Can Rally the World Against China

thebulwark.com · by Brian Stewart · February 26, 2021

Ah yes, the tyranny  of distance.

“Distance works against the United States and in favor of the Chinese in the Pacific. Despite American military hegemony and technological sophistication, the Chinese military still benefits from being able to operate close to home, moving nimbly to create facts on the ground before the United States can respond. The ongoing Scarborough Shoal crisis makes this obvious. To overcome this disadvantage, the United States will have to integrate and cooperate more closely with its allies in the region. The Biden administration appears to have reached the same conclusion as it prepares for the first ever meeting of the heads of the so-called Quad countries—the United States, Australia, India, and Japan. The Quad member states already hold joint annual military exercises, which the Biden administration should seek to expand, possibly inviting other Indo-Pacific allies as well.

For much too long, the United States willfully facilitated the rise of its greatest geopolitical rival since the Soviet Union. Along with market liberalizations within China, this policy helped lift hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty, but did nothing to condition the political evolution of what Xi calls the “great modern socialist country.” What has emerged is the world’s largest and strongest one-party state––a tyrannical Levithan at home and a peril to the liberal order abroad. Convergence failed. It should be replaced with cooperation, containment, and when necessary, confrontation.”

 

18. U.S. to Impose Sweeping Rule Aimed at China Technology Threats

WSJ · by John D. McKinnon · February 26, 2021

Excerpts:

“The new government oversight would apply to technology transactions involving critical U.S. infrastructure, networks and satellite operations, large data hosting operations, widely used internet connectivity software, and technology used in advanced computing, drones, autonomous systems or advanced robotics, according to the draft rule. It could impact sales or, in some circumstances, use of a technology.

The telecommunications and financial-services industries are viewed as particularly affected by the rule because they are heavy users of information-technology services and handle sensitive consumer data, but many other consumer-facing businesses also have a lot at stake.

As many as 4.5 million firms of all sizes could be impacted by the rule, and total compliance costs could reach as much as $52 billion in the first year after implementation, the Commerce Department estimated recently, with annualized costs of as much as $20 billion.”

 

19. Inside Xinjiang’s Prison State

The New Yorker · by Ben Mauk and Matt Huynh · February 26, 2021

Please go to the link to view this in the original format. 

 

20. Opinion | Why Are Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos So Interested in Space?

The New York Times · February 26, 2021

There is money to be made? Apologies for my cynicism. 

 

21. Erik Prince and the Failed Plot to Arm a CIA Asset-Turned-Warlord in Libya

The Intercept · by Matthew Cole · February 26, 2021

This is based on a PowerPoint presentation.  But it seems the author turned that into the name of an "assassination unit."  (I think it is really just awkward phrasing)

Excerpt: "The assassination unit PowerPoint that the U.N. obtained depicts Jordanian helicopters of the make that Opus wanted to provide to Hifter alongside an odd-looking airplane. It is shown in various illustrations flying over a map of northern Libya: gathering digital signals, supporting the assassination and strike teams, hunting some enemy — real or imagined. The document lists the aircraft as the “LASA T-Bird.” There are only two such planes in the world, both created by Prince."

 

22. Marine Forces Special Operations Command Celebrates 15th Anniversary

dvidshub.net

Happy Birthday Raiders.

 

23. A Japanese Cult That Believes Its Leader Is an Alien From Venus Is Speaking at CPAC

Vice

Yes this is from Vice.  But I could not resist sending this about the Japanese cult leader.

 

24. Extremism 'Has Reared Its Head' in Air Force Special Operations, General Says

military.com · by Stephen Losey · February 26, 2021

 

25.  Internet sleuths solve secret message on Perseverance rover's Mars parachute

Space and NASA News – Universe and Deep Space Information | Space.com · by Chelsea Gohd · February 23, 2021

Glad to see our scientists can keep things light too.

 

--------------

 

"Let us, on both sides, lay aside all arrogance.  Let us not, on either side, claim that we have already discovered the truth.  Let us seek it together as something which is known to neither of us.  For only then may we seek the truth, lovingly and tranquilly, if there be no bold presumption that it is already discovered and possessed."

- Saint Augustine of Hippo, 354-430 AD

 

"We find comfort among those who agree with us— growth among those who don't."

- Frank A. Clark

 

"'Bias' is what somebody has when you disagree with his or her opinion."

-Hedley Donovan

 

 

02/27/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Sat, 02/27/2021 - 12:16pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Cyber warrior’s glimpse into Kim’s Operation Chaos

2. U.S., South Korea Near a Deal Over Cost of U.S. Forces on Peninsula

3. North Korea using prison labor to defy sanctions, group says

4. Lazarus Targets Defense Companies with ThreatNeedle Malware

5. My mother was tortured by North Korean authorities

6. North Korea's informal loan networks can lead to gang violence, research says

7. North Korea has at least eight ICBMs, think tank says

8. North Korea's continued development of weapons poses threat to US and allies: Kirby

9. Active role for US unlikely in Korea-Japan row

10. North Korea’s economic crisis: Last chance for denuclearization?

11. North Korea’s Ever-Expanding Red-Light Camera and Traffic Light Network

12. A diplomatic mess (South Korea - Iran)

13. Accountability for the Murder of Jamal Khashoggi - United States Department of State (implications for South Korea??)

 

1. Cyber warrior’s glimpse into Kim’s Operation Chaos

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · February 27, 2021

Kim Jong-un's all purpose sword. Look for part 2 of this report tomorrow.

 

2. U.S., South Korea Near a Deal Over Cost of U.S. Forces on Peninsula

WSJ · by Gordon Lubold, Michael R. Gordon and Andrew Jeong

I hope we are close to resolution. I do hope the subtitle is right and it is a five year agreement. And I hope the action officers are putting together a supporting information campaign to inform the press, pundits, and populations in both countries why this agreement is good for tier countries.

 

3. North Korea using prison labor to defy sanctions, group says

Stars and Stripes· by John Herskovitz · February 26, 2021

As a reminder: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

4. Lazarus Targets Defense Companies with ThreatNeedle Malware

threatpost.com· by Elizabeth Montalbano · February 26, 2021

Excerpts:

“After attackers get into a system, they proceed to gather credentials using a tool named Responder and then move laterally, seeking “crucial assets in the victim environment,” according to the researchers.

They also figured out a way to overcome network segmentation by gaining access to an internal router machine and configuring it as a proxy server, allowing them to exfiltrate stolen data from the intranet network using a custom tool and then sending it to their remote server.”

 

5.  My mother was tortured by North Korean authorities

The Korea Times · February 27, 2021

The brutality of the evil Kim family regime.

No child should ever have to experience this.

That said it is gratifying to see this student speak out and deliver this speech in English.

I hope all Americans who read this will be as moved as me about the courage of this mother, son, and family. (And saddened and disgusted by the nature of the Kim family regime.)

This is why we need a human rights upfront to north Korea. We cannot turn a blind eye to these crimes against humanity.

 

6. North Korea's informal loan networks can lead to gang violence, research says

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · February 26, 2021

Excerpts:

“Yang said mortgage loans for homes are on offer from North Korean entrepreneurs, known as "donju."

The donju, or "masters of money," do not finance home ownership, which is banned, but rather the acquisition of residential permits. Previous South Korean press reports have said North Korean buyers and sellers can trade their "right of residence" to housing units.

The informal nature of mortgage loans in North Korea means borrowers and lenders are unprotected and cannot seek legal redress. In worst-case scenarios, a borrower unable to repay a loan will refuse to vacate the home offered as collateral, setting the stage for an unmediated dispute.

"Eventually, there is no choice but to resolve the issue through negotiations among North Korean residents, and sometimes with the use of force" or violence, Yang said. "In North Korea, these masters of money sometimes hire gangs" to deal with uncooperative borrowers.

 

7. North Korea has at least eight ICBMs, think tank says

upi.com· February 26, 2021

Key point in the second paragraph of the excerpt below:

According to IISS, no certainties exist regarding North Korea's effectiveness or readiness against technologically superior opponents. North Korea's military training also does not reflect its operational capabilities, the think tank said.

North Korea's illicit weapons program has led to international sanctions against the country, but calls continue to grow in Seoul in favor of sanctions relief.

South Korean Unification Minister Lee In-young suggested in an interview with the Financial Times sanctions could be eased to address the humanitarian crisis in the North. Lee also said strict border closures could be aggravating the situation, the report said.

 

8. North Korea's continued development of weapons poses threat to US and allies: Kirby

The Korea Times · February 27, 2021

The entire transcript of John Kirby's remarks are here.  

Here is the complete Korean excerpt:

Q: Thanks, Mr. Kirby.

I have a question about the North Korean nuclear issues. Recently, Secretary of State Blinken has mentioned that the priority is to resolve North Korea issues as much as missile launches and also WMD, weapons of mass destruction in North Korea. Will the DOD, Department of Defense, implement a strong policy toward North Korea or will it be concerned with diplomatic support? Which one you are -- DOD is – is it?

MR. KIRBY: Well, I -- and I won't get ahead of the State Department and -- and -- and their approach. As Secretary Austin has said literally from even before he was confirmed, that he believes our job here at the Defense Department is to support the work of diplomacy, and the President's been very clear that he wants diplomats in the lead and we're supportive of that here at the Defense Department.

But North Korea's continued development of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction represents a threat to U.S. interests and the security of our allies and partners. We anticipate a review of the U.S. government's entire approach to North Korea, and of course the Department of Defense is going to support that review. We'll have a role in that, we'll have a voice in that and we'll take that seriously.

In the near time, we're going to work in close coordination with our allies and partners to seek to deter negative behavior from -- from North Korea. And, you know, as you and I have talked about many times, I mean, that -- that includes strengthening the alliance with the Republic of -- of Korea, which we believe is a linchpin of security in the region, and that also means working closely with our South Korean allies on making sure that our two militaries have the -- the capabilities and the readiness to -- to defend our interests on the -- on the peninsula.”

 

9. Active role for US unlikely in Korea-Japan row

The Korea Times· by Kang Seung-woo · February 27, 2021

But we need to try to reduce the ROK-Japan friction as best we can. We need sufficient trilateral cooperation.

 

10. North Korea’s economic crisis: Last chance for denuclearization?

The Brookings Institution · by Evans J.R. Revere · February 26, 2021

Evans Revere's 11 page report can be accessed in PDF here.

His conclusion: “Today, prospects for North Korea’s denuclearization are all but gone. But that goal may still be achievable if the United States, its allies, and partners recognize that Kim Jong Un and his regime are standing on shaky ground, and that now is the time to convince Kim that the trembling he feels is a sign that the regime’s days could be numbered.”

My comment: it is the internal pressure that is creating the shaky ground for the regime and it is only the internal threat that provides a chance that Kim may feel it is a great threat than any external one and therefore he might be willing to negotiate denuclearization of the north. It is a very longshot but it is the only condition that might cause him to agree to denuclearize.

The other side of that coin is if the regime is on shaky ground we should dust off our contingency plans for north Korean instability and regime collapse to prepare for one of the worst case scenarios on the Korean peninsula. (and remember that the conditions that lead to instability and potential collapse could lead to Kim making a decision to go to war as the only course of action to ensure regime survival (in his mind)).

 

11. North Korea’s Ever-Expanding Red-Light Camera and Traffic Light Network

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · February 26, 2021

I guess they expect running red lights to become a problem in the future:

“The expansion and upgrading of the traffic light network point to increasingly busy roads in Pyongyang and the need to regulate traffic and enforce rules. Foreign residents of the capital city have spoken about the increased road traffic over the past several years, which can also be observed via commercial satellite imagery and video footage. This trend now appears to be spreading into other provinces. While cities such as Hamhung, Sinuiju and Nampho aren’t as busy as Pyongyang, traffic volumes seem to be rising throughout the nation. At least for now, the system doesn’t appear to be an extra level of surveillance on citizens, but this trend should be monitored in the future.”

 

12. A diplomatic mess (South Korea - Iran)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

A diplomatic mess

 

13. Accountability for the Murder of Jamal Khashoggi - United States Department of State (implications for South Korea??)

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken

This could have implications for South Korea and its new ‘anti-leaflet” amendment to the national security law that prohibits escapees from north Korea (or anyone) from sending information back into north Korea. This theoretically could be applied to members of the Moon administration as well as national assembly members who passed the law. Of course, it will depend on the next Country Report and how State describes the South Korea law as it was just passed in December. But perhaps when our congress holds hearings on the law as some members plan to do, they could call on State officials to testify as to how they think the next report will treat the law (as the human rights and civil liberties violation that it is) and what that could mean for South Koran government officials.

Excerpt: 

“I also have directed that the State Department fully report on any such extraterritorial activities by any government in our annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices. The United States will continue to shine a light on any government that targets individuals, either domestically or extraterritorially, merely for exercising their human rights and fundamental freedoms.”

 

-----------

 

"Let us, on both sides, lay aside all arrogance. Let us not, on either side, claim that we have already discovered the truth. Let us seek it together as something which is known to neither of us. For only then may we seek the truth, lovingly and tranquilly, if there be no bold presumption that it is already discovered and possessed."

- Saint Augustine of Hippo, 354-430 AD

 

"We find comfort among those who agree with us— growth among those who don't."

- Frank A. Clark

 

"'Bias' is what somebody has when you disagree with his or her opinion."

-Hedley Donovan

02/26/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Fri, 02/26/2021 - 10:36am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Intel Panel Chair: Retool Spec Ops for China Conflict

2.  Uniting against authoritarianism: a blueprint for the Quad

3. A House Divided: A Look at SOF Values

4.  A Reporter Looks Back: Remembering George Schultz

5. China’s Campaign to Crush Democracy in Hong Kong Is Working

6. China Gave US Diplomats Anal COVID Tests ‘In Error,’ American Officials Say

7. Ex-CIA Chief Gives JFK Assassination Some QAnon-Style Spin

8. How Starlink Is About To Disrupt The Telecommunications Sector

9. Founder Of Chinese Front Group Spoke At CIA Nominee’s Think Tank Amid Beijing Propaganda Push

10. In no region is China’s influence felt more strongly than in South-East Asia

11. Esper’s end-around on Trump harmed civil-military relations

12. Pentagon brands Russia "existential" threat as Joe Biden condemns nation's "recklessness"

13. Exclusive: US counterterrorism operations touched 85 countries in the last 3 years alone

14. Global defense spending, led by US and China, hits new high

15. China’s Waning Rare Earths Advantage

 

1. Intel Panel Chair: Retool Spec Ops for China Conflict

spytalk.co · by Jeff Stein

Well this new committee is off to an interesting start. I think the chairman needs a thorough briefing on the roles and missions of SOF. The SOF community may be in for tough times ahead with this Congressman as the chairman of the intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee of the HASC.

Excerpts:

“He also thinks U.S. Green Berets, Navy SEALs and other spec ops units need to be withdrawn from some regions and assignments and get ready for “some kind of conflict with China should the balloon go up.”

...

Meanwhile, Gallego says, U.S. special operations troops need a break from foreign deployments and training missions.

“They're stretched too thin,” he said. “It causes a lot of family problems. These guys are special forces, but they're not super human.”

“We are basically overusing them to the point where I think a lot of our special forces are really just, absolutely just tired,” he added. “Not only that, but because they're already being used on CT missions in, for example, CENTCOM (the U.S. Central Command, responsible for the Middle East), their skill set is only really focused on that.” They need to be retooled, he says, as an adjunct to main force units in a bigger, head-on conflict.

...

Nevertheless, he says, the Pentagon should start drawing down special ops troops from joint training operations in places like Africa and the Arctic and retooling them for a future conflict in Asia. They could be replaced in most cases , he says, by regular active duty and National Guard units. NATO members’ special ops troops could pick up the slack for foreign counterterror and training missions.

Rather than thinking about preparing for SOF for a war with China (and I assume he means a war in China where he would advocate deploying SOF) perhaps we ought to think about a more effective use of SOF in the political warfare domain of Great Power Competition where we can employ the comparative advantages of SOF to meet US strategic objectives short of war. The Chairman should be asking how to employ SOF in irregular warfare in support of a US national level effort of political warfare in great power competition.

What is an example of how SOF contributes to IW ? - through "unconventional deterrence" (H/T to Bob Jones)- helping to harden populations and militaries of friends, partners, and allies to resist the malign influence of revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations. This is exemplified by the Resistance Operating Concept pioneered by SOCEUR to counter Russian malign influence in Europe. This model has application around the world especially if adapted for countries targeted by China's One Belt One Road initiative or in countries such as Taiwan.

•What is the "resistance potential" against OBOR?

•Is it supportable and exploitable?

•How to develop a supporting campaign plan to support the new US Strategic Approach to China;

•Promoting American Prosperity

•Advancing American Influence

•Preserving Peace Through Strength.

US Strategic Approach to China

State Department Plays a Key Role in New US China Strategy

•How to Support the GEC?

•Information and Influence Activities

•How to Support State?

•Blue Dot Network

•Economic Prosperity Network

•Is there a role for the 2 SOF “trinities?”

•Irregular Warfare, Unconventional Warfare, Support to Political Warfare

•The Comparative advantage of SOF: Governance, Influence, Support to indigenous forces and populations

(while maintaining exquisite capabilities for the no fail CT and CP national missions)

Lastly, if you withdraw SOF from around the world and replace them with conventional forces and National Guard troops so they can sit at home station to prepare for the balloon going up with China, you will break the entire special operations community doing greater damage than through the perceived "overuse" of SOF. SOF retention and recruiting will drop to zero.

I hope the Chairman gets a briefing from ASD SO/LIC and USSOCOM and gets brought up to speed about the nature and capabilities of SOF.

 

2. Uniting against authoritarianism: a blueprint for the Quad

aspistrategist.org.au · by John Garrick · February 26, 2021

We need more than the Quad.

Excerpts:

“The Quad will need to be involved in developing a cybersecurity strategy that recognises the varied nature of evolving threats and the importance of ensuring the security and resilience of alliance members’ networks. Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is seeking to secure the technological future by fostering the ‘Quad Tech Network’.

...

Some argue that the Quad won’t work because the histories and agendas of the four partners are too different. However, this views the Quad narrowly as a military alliance. It can be and is much more. In an encouraging sign, the Quad has already engaged with South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand (the ‘Quad-plus’) on collective responses to the pandemic.

As Quad members, the US and Australia may encourage the inclusion of Japan in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network along with Canada, New Zealand and the UK. The British government has also floated the idea of a ‘Democracy 10’ (including the Quad countries) to tackle issues, such as the development of standards for 5G and emerging technologies, that affect the collective interests of the democratic nations.”

 

3. A House Divided: A Look at SOF Values

A House Divided: A Look at SOF Values· by Dan Pace

Conclusion:

“Over time, the development and integration of this code into the regiment could significantly improve operators’ ability to make ethical, operationally effective decisions. In addition to the obvious benefits of increased decision making quality, the regiment could enjoy numerous other benefits. Deeper understanding of the specifics of an operator’s actions improves leadership’s ability to capitalize on them through information operations and enables them to be more easily synchronized with other efforts. This understanding also ensures any operational missteps are recognized early and can be mitigated more effectively. From a force preservation perspective, this ethical code could result in a reduction in the number and severity of moral injuries to the force. Operators that understand why they are doing what they do, and that their actions are condoned by higher will be better equipped to deal with the mental fallout such actions can cause. Finally, implementation of this code improves the discipline and reputation of the regiment by helping avoid the disreputable publicity that comes from scandal.  The changes will not be felt immediately, but over time, they could have significant impact on the well-being and effectiveness of the force.            

As the regiment looks at solutions to the problem of SOF misconduct, it needs to ensure it isn’t making any false assumptions. Improving leadership assessment and selection, reducing strain on the force, and strengthening SOF’s identity are necessary, but if they rest on a weak moral foundation, they will not be sufficient.”

 

4. A Reporter Looks Back: Remembering George Schultz

rfa.org· by Dan Southerland

I do hope we can continue to learn from Secretary Schultz and that his passing will cause us to reflect and learn.

 

5. China’s Campaign to Crush Democracy in Hong Kong Is Working

WSJ · by Wenxin Fan

Excerpts:

“Hong Kong can be governed only by “patriots” who aren’t opposed to the Communist Party’s leadership, Xia Baolong, the chief of Beijing’s office on Hong Kong affairs, said in a policy speech this week in Beijing. “Those who violate Hong Kong’s national security law aren’t patriots.”

Chinese government officials have foreshadowed further steps they believe are necessary in a city where resistance to Communist Party rule remains widespread and people still enjoy many more freedoms than those on the mainland.

Officials see a need to use the law’s broad provisions more firmly to tame critical media, revamp education and tighten internet controls, fashioning the liberal financial center in the authoritarian mold of China’s other cities. Pressure is mounting to change Hong Kong’s vaunted judicial system—for instance, Chinese officials are annoyed that judges often let activists go free on bail after they’re charged—even though any erosion of international legal standards may alarm foreign businesses in the city.“

 

6. China Gave US Diplomats Anal COVID Tests ‘In Error,’ American Officials Say

Vice · by Viola Zhou

I just cannot see US personnel submitting to this (if this is a real report). I thought this was from the Opinion or Duffel Blog or Babylon Bee but it is from VICE, ...sigh

China Gave US Diplomats Anal COVID Tests ‘In Error,’ American Officials Say

 

7. Ex-CIA Chief Gives JFK Assassination Some QAnon-Style Spin

The Daily Beast · by Guy Russo · February 26, 2021

Well it is Friday and I guess time for unusual reports.

 

8. How Starlink Is About To Disrupt The Telecommunications Sector

Forbes · by Enrique Dans · February 23, 2021

Excerpts:

“Starlink also raises many other issues in a market that has traditionally tended to be highly regulated: what happens to the amortization of frequency operating licenses or the amortization of infrastructure, in many cases resold to other companies, if competitors using satellite technologies appear that are able to offer a competitive service in any market? And what happens in markets where governments seek to maintain oversight of operators’ connectivity offers, taking advantage of them to exercise some form of censorship? Are governments such as Russia really going to start harassing those who connect in this way?

Will we soon see competitive Starlink offerings in rural areas in your country? That was a science fiction scenario until recently, but now seems to be, contrary to what usually happens with Elon Musk’s announcements, about to meet its deadline. The announced disruption seems to be arriving according to plan. Will this year see the arrival of vastly more competitive telecommunications?”

 

9. Founder Of Chinese Front Group Spoke At CIA Nominee’s Think Tank Amid Beijing Propaganda Push

The Daily Caller

Sigh...

 

10. In no region is China’s influence felt more strongly than in South-East Asia

The Economist· February 25, 2021

Yes it is a complex relationship when you have the 600 pound gorilla breathing down your neck.

The "Milk Tea Alliance" is an interesting phenomena.

 

11. Esper’s end-around on Trump harmed civil-military relations

Defense News · by Jud Crane · February 25, 2021

Conclusion:

“My concern is what comes next. Further politicization of appointments could lead to a Pentagon that games appointments in the fourth year of an administration or selects separate slates of general officers according to the anticipated preferences of the winning candidate. To that end, general officers may begin aligning themselves with anticipated preferences of the incoming party. As civil-military relations scholar Risa Brooks wrote that “when political criteria become paramount in appointments and promotions, it can undermine the quality of the officer corps.”

We are fortunate that the United States has a trusted, professional, apolitical military. An apolitical military, if you can keep it.”

 

12.  Pentagon brands Russia "existential" threat as Joe Biden condemns nation's "recklessness"

Newsweek · by David Brennan · February 25, 2021

Are we making Russia 10 feet tall? As a brilliant national security expert I know once said: "Amazing that this declining power with a GDP the size of Texas can create all this mischief and the rest of the world seems helpless in either stopping it or preventing these acts of mischief from taking place."

 

13.  Exclusive: US counterterrorism operations touched 85 countries in the last 3 years alone

USA Today · by George Petras, Karina Zaiets and Veronica Bravo

800 overseas bases? This is mentioned at the end of the article.

There is a link to an excel spreadsheet with a description of "bases" and a list all the bases.

The excel spreadsheet can be downloaded here.

To cite the data here is a link to the author's information.

 

14.  Global defense spending, led by US and China, hits new high

Stars and Stripes· by John Vandiver · February 25, 2021

Excerpt: After the U.S. and China, the top spenders were India, Britain and Russia.

Global defense spending, led by US and China, hits new high

 

15.  China’s Waning Rare Earths Advantage

realclearworld.com · by Phillip Orchard

Excerpts:

“Over the longer term, it also portends a decline in Chinese exports that has nothing to do with Beijing weaponizing its industry dominance. Chinese domestic demand for rare earths is already exploding. If Beijing is going to deliver on any of its many technological moonshots – such as making the vast majority of its vehicle fleet electric by 2035, reaching 1,000 gigawatts of wind power generation by 2050, and building out the missile, submarine and air power capabilities needed to reach military parity with the U.S. – it will need to hoard most of its rare earths for itself. Chinese exports have already declined as a result, including a 24 percent drop in 2020 from the previous year. Indeed, Chinese demand has outpaced Chinese mining production for the past five years, forcing China to import increasing amounts of raw material from Myanmar, Vietnam and even the U.S. This, more than any desire to ease global concern about a potential embargo, is the main reason behind Friday’s expansion of production quotas.

Deng Xiaoping may have been correct that rare earths, like data and semiconductors, are the “new oil.” The thing about oil is that the strategic value of having a lot of it has often been overstated, especially once it became cheap and easy to move around the globe. Supply disruptions from major producers, of course, can still cause enough short-term pain to make importers leery of doing anything that might provoke them. And, if backed into a corner, China may very well think it has little to lose by rocking the global rare earths market with an export ban. But any benefits of such a move would be short-lived and expensive, and it would quickly bring about a future where production of the elements outside of China is anything but rare.”

 

--------------

 

"Justice is conscience, not a personal conscience but the conscience of the whole of humanity. Those who clearly recognize the voice of their own conscience usually recognize also the voice of justice."

- Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

"I think the SOF community (SOCCOM?) needs to present a convincing briefing to Congress and JCS for that matter, that someone is in control of the SOF community (all aspects and all services), because rightly or wrongly, the impression to the public, and I suspect within the military, is that too many SOF elements are cowboys without adult supervision…." - a National Security Expert

 

“We have war when at least one of the parties to a conflict wants something more than it wants peace.” 

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

02/26/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Fri, 02/26/2021 - 10:34am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. 12-year-old U.S. resident identified as suspect of terror threat against Incheon airport

2.  Teenage boy caught watching pornography exiled to countryside with family

3. US Court Orders N. Korea to Pay $2.3 Billion to Crew Members of USS Pueblo

4. Reports: North Korean enterprise filed first known lawsuit in the South

5. North Korea: Russian diplomats leave by hand-pushed trolley

6. Opinion | The clock is ticking on North Korea. Biden should make the first move.

7. South Korea wavers on North Korea human rights abuses

8. North Korea in Africa: Historical Solidarity, China’s Role, and Sanctions Evasion

9. Games of war and peace

10.  Republic of Korea Quo Vadis?

 

1. 12-year-old U.S. resident identified as suspect of terror threat against Incheon airport

en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · February 26, 2021

False alarm on the terrorist attack.

 

2. Teenage boy caught watching pornography exiled to countryside with family

dailynk.com· by Jang Seul Gi · February 25, 2021

This is the nature of the Kim family regime and the rule by law.

Excerpts:

“The teenager was watching a pornographic video late at night when his parents were not at home. He was caught during a surprise inspection by a task force created to monitor “deviant” behavior.

According to the explanatory material for the “anti-reactionary thought law” obtained exclusively by Daily NK, Article 29 of the law calls for sentences of five to 15 years of correctional labor for consumption or possession of pornographic videos or books, photos or drawings that “preach superstition.” Individuals who produce, import or distribute such materials may get life sentences of correctional labor or even the death penalty, depending on the quantity of the material.

However, it appears that because the “anti-reactionary thought law” does not prescribe punishment regulations for adolescents, the punishment was set to deportation instead of correctional labor.

Articles 34-38 of the law stipulate fines of KPW 100,000 to 200,000 if a reactionary thought crime occurs due to the irresponsible education of children and orders the entire family to move to the countryside as punishment for the parents.”

 

3. US Court Orders N. Korea to Pay $2.3 Billion to Crew Members of USS Pueblo

voanews.com · by VOA News

This is an interesting development. Obviously the plaintiffs will never collect from the regime. But perhaps this is another avenue to try to attack the resources of the regime.

 

4. Reports: North Korean enterprise filed first known lawsuit in the South

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · February 25, 2021

Another interesting, and in this case, historic action. Perhaps the regime is going to practice its own form of Chinese "lawfare" with juche characteristics. 

 

5. North Korea: Russian diplomats leave by hand-pushed trolley

BBC

Tough times in Pyongyang even for diplomats. This is quite the "NEO" (noncombatant evacuation order).  I wonder if we could incorporate "hand trolleys" into the NEO plans for South Korea.

See the photos at the link.

 

6. Opinion | The clock is ticking on North Korea. Biden should make the first move.

The Washington Post · February 25, 2021

Patience. Oh that is such a bad word to use in connection with north Korea.

We can make the first move but what happens when north Korea does not pick up the phone or answer the email?

I do not think Kim is ready to engage. I do not think he can engage at this time due to the significant internal pressure he is under.

The only way he might come to the table sooner than later is if we offered sanctions relief. We would have to make a huge commitment to lift sanctions (which would require UNSC and Congressional approval) and only then would he might to the table. But then what will happen at that table?

Kim Jong-un will then work to capitalize on such appeasement which will be perceived as the success of his political warfare strategy . He will then double down on his blackmail diplomacy line of effort.

But most importantly I believe the Biden administration is right to focus on getting our alliances in the region right before we work on north Korea. We cannot be successful with north Korea without the foundation built on our linchpin and cornerstone alliances.

The bottom line is a new strategy must be built on deterrence, defense, denuclearization, and resolution of the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice Agreement) by employing a superior form of political warfare.  It should consist of 5 lines of effort: comprehensive diplomacy, resolute alliance military strength, pressure through enforced sanctions, cyber defense and offensive operations, and information and influence activities to target the regime elite, the second-tier leadership, and the population to undermine the legitimacy of the regime and separate the Kim family regime from the elite and the 2d tier leadership as well as to prepare the population for unification. Just saying.

 

7.  South Korea wavers on North Korea human rights abuses

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · February 25, 2021

This is an alliance issue. We need a united front focused on north Korean human rights. The Biden administration must address this with the Moon administration.

 

8.  North Korea in Africa: Historical Solidarity, China’s Role, and Sanctions Evasion

usip.org· by Benjamin R. Young· February 24, 2021

The 20 page report can be downloaded here.

We must take a global view of the north Korean threat.

Much of this is covered in greater detail in Dr. Bruce Bechtol's book:  North Korean Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa: Enabling Violence and Instability (which is cited in the author's report).

 

9. Games of war and peace

The Korea Times· by Donald Kirk · February 25, 2021

An interesting take on Korea from the always pithy and irreverent Don Kirk.

But I have to take issue with this except. We need multi-echelon training and at certain echelons we need aggressive field training while at other echelons computer simulation training is far more effective and important than field exercises. The ROK/US CFC HQ and the component HQ benefit more from computer simulation training than "field training" exercises. The computer simulation versus field training is an apples to oranges argument because the multiple echelons are apples, oranges, and cabbages (kimchi!).

Excerpts:

“It's not enough to conduct computer-driven exercises fine-tuning the ability of Americans and Koreans to communicate and respond on keyboards and screens. Soldiers, they say, should also share the difficulties and hazards of working together for real, in maneuvers once conducted regularly in vast stretches below the Demilitarized Zone. Since Donald Trump, in one of the more idiotic moves of his presidency, called off joint exercises after his summit in Singapore with North Korea's Kim Jong-un in June 2018, U.S. and Korean troops have hardly gotten to know each other.

It takes simulated combat conditions, not just computer games, say officers with experience in conflicts in the Middle East, for allies to gain the rapport needed to face a common enemy. That element has been missing since the last on-the-ground extensive war games involving U.S. and South Korean forces were conducted four years ago.

As an aside, given the challenges of the ROK military on the DMZ I would recommend a return to patrolling of the DMZ with US forces. However, rather than the old days of the American sector around the JSA I would integrate US forces with ROK forces in each of the frontline corps areas of responsibility. This would contribute to the defense along the DMZ, improve interoperability, and keep US tactical infantry forces primed for combat operations at the small unit level. There is no better small unit training for infantry units than the preparation for conducting actual reconnaissance and live ambush patrols on the DMZ. I have been recommending this for some years but there is no stomach for this.”

 

10. Republic of Korea Quo Vadis?

The Korea Times · by Park Moo-jong  · February 25, 2021

An interesting take on South Korean domestic politics:

“Before the April by-elections, the government, under Moon's initiative, is expected to release about 20 trillion won (about $18 billion) as "disaster relief funding" to help people battling the COVID-19 pandemic.

Quite naturally, the Moon administration's spending spree, backed by the magnificent force of Moon's Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) on the floor, is flatly adding to the sharp increase in the national debt, which the next governments ― whichever they are ― will have to pay back.

While the ruling camp is wielding its mighty power on the floor, the opposition People Power Party (PPP)is literally incompetent, showing no clear signs yet of making an effort to put up a "unified candidate" from all the opposition forces in the by-election for Seoul mayor, which is certainly to play an important role in their skirmishing.

The PPP is helpless to check the ruling party and its government, only engaging in verbal wars through social media, in particular, as a weak minority party. Actually, many people worry over the "interim" leadership of Kim Chong-in, who was the top election campaigner and a lawmaker of the then opposition DPK in 2016.”

 

-----------------

 

"Justice is conscience, not a personal conscience but the conscience of the whole of humanity. Those who clearly recognize the voice of their own conscience usually recognize also the voice of justice."

- Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

"I think the SOF community (SOCCOM?) needs to present a convincing briefing to Congress and JCS for that matter, that someone is in control of the SOF community (all aspects and all services), because rightly or wrongly, the impression to the public, and I suspect within the military, is that too many SOF elements are cowboys without adult supervision…." - a National Security Expert

 

“We have war when at least one of the parties to a conflict wants something more than it wants peace.” 

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

 

02/25/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Thu, 02/25/2021 - 10:11am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Letter by Concerned Economists Regarding “Contracting for Sex in the Pacific War” in the International Review of Law and Economics

2.  Empowering Congress on the Korean Peninsula

3. NK leader presides over key party meeting to discuss discipline among military officials

4. Upcoming military exercise with U.S. should be postponed or halted: expert

5. There was another ranking North Korean defector from Kuwait before Ryu: source

6. Madrid embassy raid suspect says it was all a ruse

7. Human Rights are Critical to North Korean Policy Agenda

8. U.S. experts stress need to address human rights issues in normalization talks with N. Korea

9. S. Korea yet to finalize position on U.N. resolution on N.K. human rights: ministry

10. North Korea enslaved South Korean prisoners of war in coal mines

11. Police investigate terror threat against Incheon Airport ahead of March 1 holiday

12. France & Japan Continue North Korean Surveillance Ops Into March

13. Unification minister renews calls for individual tourism to N.K.

14. How to Vaccinate A Rogue State Like North Korea Against Coronavirus

15. 'US needs to use China in North Korean nuclear issue'

16. What is Wrong with the Anti-Leafleting Law?

17. Upgraded US-Japan alliance raises need for practicality in Seoul's diplomacy

 

1. Letter by Concerned Economists Regarding “Contracting for Sex in the Pacific War” in the International Review of Law and Economics

chwe.net

More than 700 economists and academics have signed this letter. You can see all the signatories here

 

2. Empowering Congress on the Korean Peninsula

38north.org · by Clint Work

The 23 page report can be downloaded here:

EXSUM is in the link. 

 

3. NK leader presides over key party meeting to discuss discipline among military officials

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · February 25, 2021

Note the focus on the younger generation.  

"revolutionary moral discipline"

"Kim also called for intensified education and control to ensure that the commanding officers of the "new generation have the proper political consciousness and moral point of view."

NK leader presides over key party meeting to discuss discipline among military officials

 

4. Upcoming military exercise with U.S. should be postponed or halted: expert

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 25, 2021

The Ministry of Unification and the Korean Institute of National Unification are spouting some dangerous and troubling recommendations. They are going to cause damage to the alliance and put the security of the ROK at risk. They need to stay in their lane and focus on unification planning and preparation and stop meddling in alliance and military issues. The recommendation on human rights is morally bankrupt.

Excerpts: 

"It is necessary to postpone the combined exercises in March to restart inter-Korean dialogue and to review the idea of forming a joint military committee with the North to discuss the issue of military exercise and arms buildup," the expert said.

...

The expert also called on the need for Seoul to keep consulting with Washington so that North Korea's human rights issue does not pose as an obstacle to nuclear talks.”

 

5. There was another ranking North Korean defector from Kuwait before Ryu: source

The Korea Times· by Yi Whan-woo · February 25, 2021

This is an interesting development. This is another anecdote that adds to what my senior escapee friends tell me. There are many among the elite from north Korea who wish to escape if only they had the opportunity. Some wish to come to the US. But the ROK and the US should develop policies that will encourage escapes by the elite and other government agencies should work to professionally facilitate escapes and not have them rely on organizations like Free Joseon (see the new "revelation" about the embassy "raid" in Spain).

I would like to see a take down of the leadership of Office or Department 39 by targeting the senior members of the illicit activities organization in each country. Provide them incentives for escape and then exploit their knowledge. Some of the recent defectors who have been affiliated with Office 39 as well as others from the past have been instrumental in providing information on sanctions evasion and north Korean illicit activities.

 

6. Madrid embassy raid suspect says it was all a ruse

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok

The ROK and US need to be better than this. We cannot rely on organizations like Free Joseon for such important work. I am not saying the ROK or US intelligence services were using Free Joseon for this work but I am just pointing out this is a course of action we should not consider if we are going to get involved with helping Koreans from the north escape.

 

7. Human Rights are Critical to North Korean Policy Agenda

keia.org· by Terrence Matsuo · February 23, 2021

Human rights is a moral imperative and a national security issue. We need to take a human rights upfront approach to north Korea. As we heard from our escapee friend Hyun Seung Lee last evening at the conference Free and Unified Korea Framework - Options for the New U.S. Administration (https://www.globalpeace.org/free-and-unified-korea-options-new-us-administration), you cannot separate human rights from the nuclear issue.

 

8. U.S. experts stress need to address human rights issues in normalization talks with N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · February 25, 2021

Excellent remarks on human rights from Victor Cha last evening.

I was extremely disappointed in Ambassador Gallucci's remarks really dismissing the idea of unification. That is really troubling to hear from a senior diplomat. He is also ready to lift sanctions and I guess return to the policy of "Lucy and Charlie Brown's football" - oops I mean a Sunshine Policy reprise. For all those who say that we should lift sanctions because they have not achieved denuclearization I would ask this question: Which sanctions would you like to lift and which malign behavior from north Korea are you willing to condone and publicly state that you are good with allowing the regime to continue without any accountability?

Continued nuclear and missile development?

Proliferation of weapons to conflict areas?

Global illicit activities from counterfeiting US hundred dollar bills to drug trafficking to raise money for the regime and nuclear development?

Global cyber attacks to conduct espionage, infrastructure attacks, influence operations, cyber enabled economic warfare, and theft to provide funds for the regime and nuclear development?

Human rights atrocities in north Korea that the US has determined are the worst crimes against humanity since WWII?

Overseas slave labor?

So when you advocate for sanctions relief, please also state which malign activity you wish to associate yourself with and condone.

 

9.  S. Korea yet to finalize position on U.N. resolution on N.K. human rights: ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · February 25, 2021

Simply a troubling stance by the Moon administration. The idea that by not fully and decisively condemning north Korean human rights abuses and crimes against humanity somehow the regime will become favorably disposed to South Korean engagement is one of the worst examples of misguided thinking about the mafia-like crime family cult of the Kim family regime.

 

10.  North Korea enslaved South Korean prisoners of war in coal mines

BBC · by Laura Bicker

Just another sad story that illustrates the evil nature of the Kim family regime and how it has rule the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State causing immense suffering of Koreans from the north and the South.

Is there anyone who advocates overlooking these atrocities in return for nuclear negotiations?

North Korea enslaved South Korean prisoners of war in coal mines

 

11. Police investigate terror threat against Incheon Airport ahead of March 1 holiday

en.yna.co.kr · by 우재연 · February 25, 2021

If this was not a hoax it is a surprising and troubling development. But Incheon Airport is one of the best in the world so perhaps they think it would be a useful target. Does AQ really track the significance of the March 1st Holiday (the Samil Movement)? Would that have positive international effects for AQ?

 

12. France & Japan Continue North Korean Surveillance Ops Into March

thetaiwantimes.com · by Mark Buckton · February 25, 2021

We need a strong international effort to counter north Korean sanctions evasion and proliferation activities.

 

13. Unification minister renews calls for individual tourism to N.K.

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 25, 2021

north Korea would like tourism because traditionally the revenue generated is fed directly into the regime's "royal court economy" that directly supports the regime elite and funds the nuclear and missile programs. What would be the MOU's plan to ensure the tourism funds are not used to directly benefit KJU and the nuclear program?

 

14. How to Vaccinate A Rogue State Like North Korea Against Coronavirus

The National Interest · by Troy Stangarone · February 24, 2021

An interesting thought piece from Troy. I think we have to take a global perspective on the pandemic and all countries need access to vaccinations regardless of whether they are led by despotic regimes. It is in all of our interests to ensure there are worldwide vaccinations.

I am all for assisting north Korea directly or indirectly because it is the right thing to do. But we should be under no illusions that providing vaccine aid to north Korea will in any way contribute to a change in regime behavior or a decision to negotiate denuclearization.

 

15.  'US needs to use China in North Korean nuclear issue'

The Korea Times · February 25, 2021

Yes, China will be part of a process on the Korean peninsula. But we should be under no illusion that China will help solve ROK and US security issues with the north Korea without some quid pro quo. China is happy to see the US distracted and bogged down with north Korea issues that hopefully (from their perspective and the north's) contribute to alliance friction and erosion. China will be pleased to see continued problems for the US as long as the north does not go to war or become unstable and collapse. China 's interests are best served by maintaining the status quo for as long as possible.

 

16. What is Wrong with the Anti-Leafleting Law?

hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea · February 24, 2021

This is one of the major human rights issues and points of friction in the ROK/US alliance

 

17. Upgraded US-Japan alliance raises need for practicality in Seoul's diplomacy

straitstimes.com · February 24, 2021

Has there really been an "upgrade" in the US japan alliance or is that only Korea's paranoid perspective? But maybe this perception will have a positive effect and help the ROK and US to develop sufficiently aligned assumptions regarding the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. I think the US and Japan are much more aligned in this respect. 

 

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“Words can destroy. What we call each other ultimately becomes what we think of each other, and it matters.” 

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

“The Nation, which indulges towards another an habitual hatred, or an habitual fondness, is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interest. ... The Nation, prompted by ill-will and resentment, sometimes impels to war the Government, contrary to the best calculations of policy. The Government sometimes participates in the national propensity, and adopts through passion what reason would reject; at other times, it makes the animosity of the nation subservient to projects of hostility instigated by pride, ambition, and other sinister and pernicious motives. The peace often, sometimes perhaps the liberty, of Nations has been the victim.”

- George Washington, George Washington's Farewell Address

 

"War does not belong in the realm of arts and sciences; rather it is part of man's social existence…Politics, moreover, is the womb in which war develops."

- Carl von Clausewitz