News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Austin eyes rolling back Trump-era policy on special operations

2. How the National Cyber Director Position Is Going to Work: Frequently Asked Questions

3. 'Bouquet-throwing contest:' Biden's CIA nominee William Burns gets rave reviews in hearing

4. George Shultz’s Enduring Wisdom Can Guide Diplomacy Today

5. New Hicks Memo Sets Acquisition, Force Posture 2022 Budget Priorities

6. DoD policy pick faces ‘critical’ confirmation hearing, says Reed

7. ‘Great Power Competition’ Is a Dangerously Simple Frame

8. Senate Armed Services chair expects 'some extension' of troops in Afghanistan

9. Pentagon report reveals disturbing details about White supremacists in the ranks

10. Navy sends another guided-missile destroyer through contentious Taiwan Strait

11. 'A reckoning is near': America has a vast overseas military empire. Does it still need it?

12. Disrupting the “Chinese Dream” – Eight Insights on how to win the Competition with China

13. FDD | IAEA Weakens Iran Nuclear Safeguards

14. FDD | What’s wrong with appeasement?

15. Can Biden Fix the U.N. Human Rights Council?

16. Flag Officer Announcements

17. General Officer Announcements (Air Force)

18. China Wants Your Data — And May Already Have It

19. Desert Storm - SF Team Fights to Survive Behind Enemy Lines | SOF News

20. Military helped Darren Raley discover his potential

21. Austin Praises 'Whole-of-Government, All-of-Nation' Effort Against COVID-19

 

1. Austin eyes rolling back Trump-era policy on special operations

Politico· February 24, 2021

What this article does not discuss is how the SECDEF plans to comply with the NDAA (Section 922 specifically) and Congress' intent for greater and more effective civilian oversight of SOF.  We are going to return to the custom of the Pentagon and services and USSOCOM stiff-arming any attempt to move SOF from service-like responsibilities to having the requisite service authorities with proper civilian oversight to improve the effectiveness of special operations.

 

2. How the National Cyber Director Position Is Going to Work: Frequently Asked Questions

lawfareblog.com· by John Costello and Mark Montogomery · February 24, 2021

Excerpts:

“The NCD was never intended to spring fully formed from the minds of the multi-stakeholder commission that recommended it or the Congress and the pages of statute that gave birth to it. It will take time and considerable effort to find its way among the dynamic environment of the White House and the fray of the interagency. The creation of the deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies is a positive development and will need to be accounted for. The NCD is not and likely will not remain static. The president holds preeminence in delegating authority to the position through executive order. And Congress maintains its prerogative to empower the position further and in response to, and support of, how the president manages the position. It is an iterative dynamic that will lend itself well to evolving needs of cybersecurity and the demands of the office.

But the fundamental argument for the establishment of the position remains the same: The U.S. government needs vision, leadership, and unity of effort in cyberspace. This is true irrespective of political party or administration—though the Biden administration is off to a good start. That said, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome. The NCD position changes the institutional dynamic and is a marked step forward in ensuring enduring leadership and accountability. It will need to evolve, certainly, but as it stands the position is a good start. It is up to the Biden administration to make it successful.”

 

3. 'Bouquet-throwing contest:' Biden's CIA nominee William Burns gets rave reviews in hearing

USA Today · by Deirdre Shesgreen and Bart Jansen

Excerpts:

Warner has previously said that Burns' status as an apolitical diplomat could help restore confidence and morale at the CIA after four years of attacks by Trump. Trump repeatedly cast doubt on the intelligence community's work, particularly when it came to conclusions about Russia's attacks on the 2016 and 2020 elections.

"As a career diplomat under Democratic and Republican presidents, (Burns) has established himself as a smart and tested public servant who is free from political interference," Warner said in response to Burns' nomination. "Now more than ever, our intelligence and defense communities deserve leaders who will not politicize our national security institutions."

 

4. George Shultz’s Enduring Wisdom Can Guide Diplomacy Today

The National Interest · by Earl Anthony Wayne · February 24, 2021

Excerpt:

“George Shultz’ counsel is vital for America today—invest in building trust abroad and at home. Be true to America’s interests and values and know those of your friends and rivals. Work with patience to create and sustain close partnerships. Forge trust-based understandings with competitors using the range of U.S. levers. Invest heavily in strengthening U.S. diplomacy and its diplomats to rebuild America’s role in the world. The Biden team’s initial weeks appear to reflect this spirit. Let’s fully incorporate Shultz’ wisdom into U.S. diplomacy for the years ahead.

 

5. New Hicks Memo Sets Acquisition, Force Posture 2022 Budget Priorities

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

Excerpts:

“The need to focus on key areas and prioritize certain modernization plans was underscored this morning by Sen. Jack Reed, the new chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Speaking with reporters virtually, Reed acknowledged that there will have to be tradeoffs in upcoming Pentagon budgets.

“The top line number might not be the best guide of how we’re getting value for money, and that’s what we’re gonna try to look for — what are the systems that provide real advantages going forward, and what programs and policies to make us stronger as a nation.”

New Hicks Memo Sets Acquisition, Force Posture 2022 Budget Priorities

DepSecDef Hicks writes that “due to the limited amount of time available before the Department must submit its FY 2022 President's Budget request, the process to re-evaluate existing decisions will focus on a very small number of issues with direct impact on FY 2022 and of critical importance to the President and the Secretary.”

 

6. DoD policy pick faces ‘critical’ confirmation hearing, says Reed

Defense News · by Joe Gould · February 24, 2021

Someone mentioned to me that there must be a "sacrificial lamb" so the confirmation process will not be all smooth sailing for certain nominees while others have a more difficult time. 

 

7. ‘Great Power Competition’ Is a Dangerously Simple Frame

defenseone.com · by C. Anthony Pfaff · February 24, 2021

A useful critique that hopefully generates discussion.

Excerpts:

“Therefore, where adversaries prefer conflict to cooperation or concession, the U.S. should privilege armed conflict and commit credible and capable combat forces to the region. Where the opposite preference holds, the U.S. should privilege competitive activities below the threshold of war — assuring allies, boosting their resilience to adversary political pressure, disincentivizing adversary provocations. Where preferences are unclear, it may make sense to privilege a more dynamic force posture, rotating smaller forces in the regions to assure allies and test adversary preferences and resolve.

Successful deterrence depends on getting the terms of engagement right. To the extent adversary aggression and provocation is driven by a sense that they are disadvantaged in the current order, they will be incentivized to continually challenge it. Thus, posture decisions should be integrated into a larger approach that employs political, economic, and other means to create the most inclusive order possible. Of course, it is not likely, for a variety of reasons, that revisionist powers like China and Russia, or rogues like Iran and North Korea, will prefer any order that the United States and its partners would also accept. However, promoting a more inclusive order than its adversaries will facilitate U.S. influence and maximize the effect its global posture will have.”

 

8. Senate Armed Services chair expects 'some extension' of troops in Afghanistan

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · February 24, 2021

 

9. Pentagon report reveals disturbing details about White supremacists in the ranks

CNN · by Ellie Kaufman and Oren Liebermann, CNN

 

10. Navy sends another guided-missile destroyer through contentious Taiwan Strait

Stars and Stripes· by Caitlin Doornbos · February 25, 2021

An interesting statistic here:

“Before this month, the most recent Taiwan Strait transit happened on Dec. 31, marking the Navy's 13th passage through the waterway in 2020. That trip broke the service's prior record, set in 2016, of 12 Taiwan Strait transits in a single year.”

 

11. 'A reckoning is near': America has a vast overseas military empire. Does it still need it?

USA Today · by Kim Hjelmgaard· February 25, 2021

The headline foretells this article's biased agenda.  As do the subtitles:

• Sea change in security threats
• How big is the US military investment?
• COVID-19 kills and costs more
• Climate chaos leading to social chaos
• China and cyberattacks: How the US compares regarding its greatest foes
• 'Physics is physics'
• After 9/11, 'so much blood and treasure'
• Drone warfare and questions of accountability
• In Washington, old habits die hard
• 'Mini Americas,' mini resentments

I think the fundamental question to ask is how to best (optimally) organize and position our military capabilities to best serve US interests, deter war, react to contingencies, and protect American values. A point by point counter to this article is necessary.

 

12. Disrupting the “Chinese Dream” – Eight Insights on how to win the Competition with China

madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil · February 25, 2021

The TRADOC G2's "mad scientist" project has been extremely productive in generating critical thought on a wide range of key national security issues.

 

13. FDD | IAEA Weakens Iran Nuclear Safeguards

fdd.org · by Anthony Ruggiero · February 24, 2021

From my FDD colleague Anthony Rugerrio who just returned from his service on the NSC in the Trump administration.

 

14. FDD | What’s wrong with appeasement?

fdd.org · by Clifford D. May · February 24, 2021

In a word: everything.

Appeasement does not work - certainly not with north Korea.

Excerpts:

“Unlike Chamberlain, Mr. Biden has alternatives to appeasement. The least bad would be a policy of “peace through strength.” Were he to embrace that approach, he would refrain from alleviating economic pressure on Iran’s rulers so long as they are actively engaged in terrorism – including unleashing militias to attack Americans in Iraq as recently last week – hostage-taking-and-holding, illicit nuclear weapons and missile development, and both threatening and assaulting their neighbors.

A peace-through-strength policy also would mean ending our reliance on China’s rulers for strategic commodities and, as a matter of morality, not buying from them anything produced by workers deprived of basic human rights. Sen. Tom Cotton has just released a report on “Targeted Decoupling and the Economic Long War” with Beijing. It should be required reading within the Biden administration.

Most essential: Peace through strength implies no diminishment of the American military power needed to deter despots. Deterrence makes shooting wars less likely. It’s puzzling that so many Western leaders find the logic behind that aphorism difficult to comprehend.

These days, there are those on both the right and the left – I’d call them isolationists, they prefer to be called “restrainers” – who are determined to “end endless wars.”

It’s a nice bumper sticker. In reality, there’s a distinction between wars and long-duration, low-intensity conflicts in which American forces train, advise and assist foreign partners as part of what should be a broader strategy to defeat or at least contain common enemies.”

 

15.  Can Biden Fix the U.N. Human Rights Council?

Foreign Policy · by Richard Goldberg · February 24, 2021

We must try for the sake of the victims of human rights abuses around the world.

I am reminded of President Reagan who championed human rights while taking on the the strategic adversary of the USSR. We must work to prevent the UN Human Rights Council from being a cover for despotic regimes around the world.  We have to successfully compete in the domain of international organizations.

I cannot emphasize this statement enough: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

And this excerpt illustrates the above statement:

“Shaping the Human Rights Council is a primary objective of China’s larger strategy to exploit the U.N. system.

Most egregious, of course, is China’s election to the council amid what Blinken calls a genocide in Xinjiang. In true Orwellian fashion, China was previously appointed to a panel within the council that evaluates experts on religious discrimination—presumably including those who might have looked at China’s horrific human rights abuses against its Muslim citizens.

So, what is the Biden administration’s plan to achieve reform where its predecessors tried and failed? In her confirmation hearing last month, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield pledged to confront China inside the U.N. system and combat the double standards applying to Israel. Now is the time to make good on that pledge.

Shaping the Human Rights Council is a primary objective of China’s larger strategy to exploit the U.N. system. While running candidates to take control of standards-making bodies and U.N. agencies that can be used to support Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative—such as the International Telecommunication Union, the International Civil Aviation Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization, and the Industrial Development Organization—China’s growing influence over the council serves to whitewash its human rights record while putting the United States and its allies on the defensive.”

 

16.  Flag Officer Announcements

defense.gov

A lot of flag officer changes.

 

17. General Officer Announcements (Air Force)

defense.gov

We are getting through the one and two star moves in the Army, Navy, and here for the AirForce. Have not seen the Marine Corps moves yet. I expect perhaps in the coming weeks we will see the three and four star moves.

 

18. China Wants Your Data — And May Already Have It

NPR · by Greg Myre · February 24, 2021

Not surprising but still troubling.

Excerpts:

“U.S. officials add that DNA collection by Chinese companies, even when done openly and legally, should be seen as part of a comprehensive effort to vacuum up millions and millions of records on U.S. citizens. And many Chinese efforts violate U.S. law, the officials say.

"Most Americans have probably had their data compromised by the cyber intelligence units of the Chinese government and Chinese military intelligence," said April Falcon Doss who worked at the National Security Agency and wrote the book Cyber Privacy:Who Has Your Data And Why You Should Care.

Falcon Doss said China is collecting detailed personal information on a massive scale for multiple reasons: to boost its economy, advance its technology and to support its espionage efforts.”

 

19. Desert Storm - SF Team Fights to Survive Behind Enemy Lines | SOF News

sof.news · by John Friberg · February 24, 2021

Excerpt:  "The team was supported with air strikes that kept the Iraqi troops from overrunning the team’s position."

I recall being at CGSC in 1994 when one of the F-16 pilots was awarded, I think, a DFC for staying on station and defending this team.  They brought most of the members of the ODA from Ft Campbell to Ft Leavenworth for the presentation.  I remember one of the team guys telling the story of calling in the first air strike and when he saw the casing of the cluster bombs falling away he thought they were malfunctioning and griped that this was typical crap built for the military by the lowest bidder. He had never seen a live cluster bomb dropped until that point. But he quickly changed his mind when he saw the effects from the multiple explosions on the ground and what it did to the enemy. 

But here is the ethical dilemma for the team.  For those who argue the team should have held the children until after the operation or worse, permanently silenced them, the counter argument to that is the adults would have come looking for the missing children anyway and they would have been compromised regardless.

 

20. Military helped Darren Raley discover his potential

postandcourier.com · by Catherine Kohn

A nice human interest story and what the military and Special Forces did for someone.

 

21. Austin Praises 'Whole-of-Government, All-of-Nation' Effort Against COVID-19

defense.gov · by Jim Garamone

 

---------

 

“Words can destroy. What we call each other ultimately becomes what we think of each other, and it matters.” 

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

“The Nation, which indulges towards another an habitual hatred, or an habitual fondness, is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interest. ... The Nation, prompted by ill-will and resentment, sometimes impels to war the Government, contrary to the best calculations of policy. The Government sometimes participates in the national propensity, and adopts through passion what reason would reject; at other times, it makes the animosity of the nation subservient to projects of hostility instigated by pride, ambition, and other sinister and pernicious motives. The peace often, sometimes perhaps the liberty, of Nations has been the victim.”

-  George Washington, George Washington's Farewell Address

 

"War does not belong in the realm of arts and sciences; rather it is part of man's social existence…Politics, moreover, is the womb in which war develops."

- Carl von Clausewitz

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. VOA – US DoD “Coordination with the US-Korea Combined Training”… Former Commander Brooks “training should be conducted quietly”

2. U.S. working closely with S. Korea to maintain joint defense readiness: Pentagon official

3.  U.S. general says missile defense is focused on threats from North

4. Washington to review N. Korea’s egregious human rights records

5. South Korea raises wartime sex slavery issue at UN

6. Joe Biden Should Embrace Arms Control with North Korea

7. Unlock critical, urgent aspects of North Korea's nuclear program

8. Why North Korea replaced its ambassador to China after 11 years

9. Military Force Must Remain an Option With North Korea

10. U.S., S. Korea may discuss Iran sanctions but no money transferred yet: State Dept.

11. North Korea and Iran teaming up again as US weighs Iran nuclear deal

12. Analysts: Biden administration should engage with North Korea soon

13. N.K. paper warns against relying on outside help to achieve five-year economic plan

14. Military Sinks into Morass of Incompetence (South Korea)

15. North Korea to begin new school year on Mar. 1 with home-based classes

16. Czech Republic puts break on operations in North amid economic hardship

17. North Korea recently hacked Pfizer to steal vaccine development-related secrets

 

1.  VOA – US DoD “Coordination with the US-Korea Combined Training”… Former Commander Brooks “training should be conducted quietly”

kdva.vet · by Donghyun Kim ·  February 23, 2021

Comments from General Brooks, Lt Gen Gregson, and me.

 

2. U.S. working closely with S. Korea to maintain joint defense readiness: Pentagon official

kdva.vet · by Byun Duk-kun · February 22, 2021

Combined readiness. Just saying.

Regardless of what we say or do north Korea will complain about combined ROK/US training. We need to just get over it and make sure we understand that by scaling back, postponing, or cancelling training to appease north Korea will only cause the regime to assess the success of its blackmail diplomacy and that it will double down on its political warfare strategy.

 

3. U.S. general says missile defense is focused on threats from North

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok

We need comprehensive and integrated missile defense in the region and the homeland.

 

4. Washington to review N. Korea’s egregious human rights records

donga.com· February 24, 2021

And hopefully soon appoint a special envoy for north Koran human rights.

But this first paragraph illustrates a fundamental problem in the alliance. Minister Lee's views illustrate the naïve and erroneous assumptions under which he and the Moon administration operate. The bottom line is Minister Lee thinks appeasement works with north Korea. We all know nothing could be further from the truth.

I am gratified to see State push back on Minster Lee's remarks. This is going to be the most challenging friction point in the alliance - more so than SAM and OPCON transition.

Excerpt: “The U.S. State Department made opposing comments about the remarks of South Korean Unification Minister Lee In-young, who called for easing sanctions against North Korea and scaling down ROK-U.S. joint military exercises. Experts say the comments reflect Washington’s uncomfortable feelings about Minister Lee’s remarks.”

 

5. South Korea raises wartime sex slavery issue at UN

The Korea Times · February 24, 2021

I wish South Korea would push as hard for the human rights of the Korean people living in the north.

 

6. Joe Biden Should Embrace Arms Control with North Korea

19fortyfive.com · by ByDaniel DePetris · February 23, 2021

Yes, this is exactly what Kim Jong-un wants. It plays right into his political warfare strategy. This will ensure he keeps his nuclear weapons and enhances his standing as a nuclear power that will allow him to better execute his political warfare strategy.

 

7. Unlock critical, urgent aspects of North Korea's nuclear program

The Korea Times  · by Stephen Costello  · February 24, 2021

A call to negotiate as if it is 1999 (or party like it's 1999 as the song does) and pick up where the Clinton administration left off.  Another call to lift sanctions. Note the claim that sanctions are "illegal." 

Sigh...

Unlock critical, urgent aspects of North Korea's nuclear program

 

8. Why North Korea replaced its ambassador to China after 11 years

koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · February 24, 2021

It's the economy, stupid????

Excerpt:

“Still, he is a rare case as an economic official to become the ambassador to all-important China in the North.

“Ri may have little experience in foreign affairs but is highly credited with developing trade with China. His appointment as a top envoy reflects how much emphasis the North is putting on resuming trade with China,” said Hong Min, a senior researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification.

Hong added that Ri boasts extensive connections with economic officials in China.

“He can communicate with the Chinese authorities more directly, more quickly,” he said.

 

9. Military Force Must Remain an Option With North Korea

Bloomberg · by John Bolton · February 23, 2021

Of course this will be panned because it is from Ambassador Bolton. Those who think military force should be off the table should realize by saying that they are undermining the administration's ability to conduct "principled diplomacy." Without a credible force capability you undermine deterrence and diplomacy. And the military must always be planning to be able to provide options to the commander-in-chief and that must include the use of force.. Yes it may sound cliche, but the best way to prevent war is to thoroughly prepare for it.

That said I think Ambassador Bolton's fears that there will be a return to an Obama era of Korean diplomacy are unfounded. I am confident the Biden Administration sees how drastically conditions have changed. When its policy review is complete, I do not think it will be a reprise of the Obama era policies.

 

10. U.S., S. Korea may discuss Iran sanctions but no money transferred yet: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 24, 2021

Do you think Iran is trying to contribute to the Chinese and north Korea objective to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance? Or does the regime in Iran think it is can just conduct its own form of blackmail diplomacy the way north Korea does?

Good statement from the State Department spokesperson.

Excerpts:

“Price refused to confirm any ongoing consultations between Seoul and Washington, but said Seoul is one of the closest U.S. allies and partners when it comes to sanctions enforcement.

"The Republic of Korea -- a key ally, key treaty ally -- is very much a partner when it comes to sanctions enforcement across the board," said the department spokesman.

"So it wouldn't be a surprise, wouldn't come as a shock, I am sure, to hear you say that we do discuss these issues broadly with the South Koreans," he added.

 

11. North Korea and Iran teaming up again as US weighs Iran nuclear deal

foxnews.com · by Eric Shawn

Again????

I guess we need to get some of the home depot vests for Kim Jong-un. That would make for some good memes.

 

12. Analysts: Biden administration should engage with North Korea soon

upi.com · by Thomas Maresca · February 24, 2021

I am sure the Biden administration would engage in working level talks immediately. However, I do not think Kim Jong-un is ready for any engagement, regardless of the US offer to talk, due to internal north Korean pressures.. The only way Kim Jong-un might negotiate would be in return for immediate sanctions relief. And the relief would have to come before or at least simultaneously with such talks. This would of course be a strategy of appeasement and would allow Kim to assess his political warfare strategy successfully which would then cause him to double down on blackmail diplomacy. And we will get nowhere in terms of denuclearization of the north.

 

13. N.K. paper warns against relying on outside help to achieve five-year economic plan

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 24, 2021

Juche, self-reliance - Do not allow the pure north Korea to be contaminated by outside influence.

 

14.  Military Sinks into Morass of Incompetence (South Korea)

english.chosun.com

The ROK military is taking a lot of criticism. We have to understand that defending the border (and the coastlines) is manpower intensive. It is hard work and takes boots on the ground patrolling 24/7. Technology can be an important supplement but it is no replacement for the human that must be on the ground.

 

15. North Korea to begin new school year on Mar. 1 with home-based classes

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · February 24, 2021

This must be an indication of how threatened the regime is with COVID. The regime does not appear to have sufficiently mitigated the threat.

 

16.  Czech Republic puts break on operations in North amid economic hardship

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Shim Kyu-Seok

Another indicator of how bad is the situation inside the north. Even the Joongang ilbo is describing the regime's population and resources control measures as "draconian."

 

17. North Korea recently hacked Pfizer to steal vaccine development-related secrets

dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · February 24, 2021

Reporting on this issue from inside north Korea.

 

--------------------

 

“I think that Ronald Reagan wanted to hear other people's views, and he always listened carefully, and from time to time he changed his own mind about a position. And especially he took pains to listen carefully to foreign leaders with whom he was dealing.” 

-Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

"It is not because the truth is too difficult to see that we make mistakes... we make mistakes because the easiest and most comfortable course for us is to seek insight where it accords with our emotions - especially selfish ones." 

- Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

“Get beyond love and grief: exist for the good of Man.” 

-  Miyamoto Musashi, A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Lack of Pentagon nominees could be harbinger of slow process

2. This video of 10th Mountain soldiers shows exactly what not to do when clearing a room

3. From Citizen Soldier to Secular Saint: The Societal Implications of Military Exceptionalism

4. What Can the Pentagon Realistically Get from Its Advisory Boards?

5. Experts Tell Congress How To Turn Innovation Into Reality

6. Cybersecurity and your water: Hacker attempted to poison Florida city's water supply

7. The Asia-Pacific is Biden’s Top Security Priority

8. The World Health Organization Must Be Made to Change

9. Lessons for the States on Energy Security

10. FDD | Oberlin 'professor of peace' called for destruction of Israel in 1989 speech

11. Army switches up cyber leadership

12. General Officer Assignments (Army)

13. Hackers Tied to Russia's GRU Targeted the US Grid for Years

14. Nuclear warfare or cyber warfare: which is the bigger threat?

15. The Mysterious Origins of the Secretary of Defense ‘Exclusion’ Clause: Truman, Hoffman, and the Chowder Marines

16. SecDef Austin to Troops: If You've Seen Extremism in the Ranks, Tell Your Commander

17. Twitter reveals state-backed influence operations from Armenia, Iran and Russia

18. Putting Human Rights at the Center of U.S. Foreign Policy

19. Feast to Famine: Nine Recommendations for Maintaining American Military Primacy with Reduced Funding

20. Biden Wants to Compete With China. Here’s How.

21.Women linked to Abu Sayyaf suicide bombings arrested in Sulu

22. A U.S. strategy paper on China draws a tepid response in Beijing

 

1. Lack of Pentagon nominees could be harbinger of slow process

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · February 23, 2021

Not good news.  I thought we would be able to do better during this administration.

 

2. This video of 10th Mountain soldiers shows exactly what not to do when clearing a room

taskandpurpose.com · by Paul Szoldra · February 23, 2021

It is one helluva terrible video. You can see it at the link.  However, what you also must watch is how the Command Sergeant Major Mario Terenas responded using social media on Instagram.  He owns the problem.  The CSM's actions and message should be a lesson for all leaders and Public Affairs professionals.  His response should be shown in all leadership courses in PME and at DINFOS.  I have great respect for the CSM.  I am sure the leaders of these terribly trained soldiers in the video are going to get their due from the CSM.

 

3. From Citizen Soldier to Secular Saint: The Societal Implications of Military Exceptionalism

tnsr.org · by Susan Bryant · February 23, 2021

Please go to the link to view this in proper format since it will not come through in the message.  This is an essay that should be discussed not only in PME institutions but in civilian graduate schools that focus on national security as well.

4. What Can the Pentagon Realistically Get from Its Advisory Boards?

defenseone.com · by Eliahu Niewood

Excerpts:

“Unfortunately, the ability to bring the right subject matter expertise to bear has been hindered by the ever-growing timelines for getting consultants and members approved for studies and membership. If the current review results in cutting that timeline down from many months to a small number of weeks, the agility and applicability of all the boards would be greatly improved.

As well, the Board was often called on to assess ideas that purported to be 10X. Far more often than not, they turned out to be physically infeasible, impractical, or of little real impact.

If the current review identifies best practices like these and helps spread them across the various DoD advisory boards while articulating the benefits they provide, the pause in board activities to make that happen will be well worth it.

What Can the Pentagon Realistically Get from Its Advisory Boards?

A former chair says the boards provide a lot, could do better — and help weed out impractical or oversold ideas.

The recently mandated zero-baseline review of the Department of Defense’s advisory boards was partially motivated by controversial recent changes to the membership of specific boards. Setting politics aside, however, the review is a great opportunity to review the effectiveness and impact of these boards. Do they serve a useful purpose? What does the Pentagon get from them?

Steve Blank, Raj Shah, and Joe Felter recently argued in Defense One that these boards should be restructured to produce ideas with revolutionary, “10X” impact. This is certainly an admirable goal, but it is probably worthwhile to incorporate into the review both a better sense for where those 10X ideas come from and the other benefits that DoD gets from those boards.

10X ideas in the national security space are rare, but the ones that have come along and really changed warfare—like nuclear weapons, ICBMs, stealth, GPS, precision munitions, and satellite-based sensing—came not from “crazy outsiders” or insiders versed in processes and politics. Rather, they arose from efforts to bring together people who understood the national security mission gaps with people who knew the limits of technology and what it took to make it real.”

 

5. Experts Tell Congress How To Turn Innovation Into Reality

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

Excerpts:

“To get innovators on board, Kitchen added, “the Pentagon’s also going to have to reconsider its one-size-fits-all approach to intellectual property.” Innovative private-sector software firms live or die by their trade secrets, making them deeply reluctant to hand them over to the Defense Department to the extent traditional contracting arrangements often require.

You also need to help innovative firms – especially smaller ones – protect their IP against espionage, Fox said. The Pentagon should provide “a mechanism to plug in securely,” she argued, probably through some kind of high-security cloud computing architecture.

Once you’re properly focused on software over hardware, Fox argued, you can make your program much more flexible, adaptable, and easy to upgrade over time. You do that, she said, by making them “modular… from the very beginning.” This approach, known more formally as modular open systems architecture, is basically the Lego approach to weapons system design. You establish strict technical standards for how different subsystems (modules) fit together, but as long as companies meet those standards, they can innovate however they want, allowing you to plug-and-play a wide range of different components as new technologies become available.

Experts Tell Congress How To Turn Innovation Into Reality

Emphasizing venture capital, modular open architecture, and software development will help turn neat ideas into battle-ready weapons, acquisition gurus told Congress. But having separate bureaucracies for Research & Engineering and Acquisition & Sustainment may be a problem.”

 

6. Cybersecurity and your water: Hacker attempted to poison Florida city's water supply

The Hill · by Mark Montgomery and Annie Fixler · February 23, 2021

From my FDD colleagues.

Excerpts:

“The United States has more than 148,000 public water systems and more than 70,000 water and wastewater utilities. Many of these facilities “lack the required technical and financial capabilities to address all emerging risks, such as cyber risks,” according to a 2016 National Infrastructure Advisory Council Report.

The situation has not improved over the past five years.

The Cyberspace Solarium Commission concluded in March 2020 that “water utilities remain largely ill-prepared to defend their networks from cyber-enabled disruption.” In fact, the former chief technology officer for the state of New Jersey called water and wastewater “probably the least mature sector [of 16] from a cybersecurity standpoint.”

As the sector-specific agency (SSA) and risk manager for the water and wastewater industry, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for identifying and assessing cyber risks to the industry. The EPA’s cybersecurity budget, however, is a fraction of that of the Department of Energy, the SSA for the closest comparable lifeline sector.”

 

7. The Asia-Pacific is Biden’s Top Security Priority

thediplomat.com · by Steven Stashwick · February 23, 2021

We also have to be careful about prioritizing based on geographic locations.  Our four major revisionist (China and Russia) and rogue/revolutionary (Iran and north Korea) powers operate on a global basis. Prioritizing resources based on geographic locations may not necessarily be the most effective way to compete and counter our adversaries.  We will need a global force posture to compete globally.

 

8. The World Health Organization Must Be Made to Change

WSJ· by Craig Singleton · Feb. 23, 2021

An  important critique of the WHO from my FDD colleague.

 

9. Lessons for the States on Energy Security

realclearenergy.org · by Dr. Brenda Shaffer

We have to get our houses in order in the states.  From one of our senior advisors at FDD.

 

10. FDD | Oberlin 'professor of peace' called for destruction of Israel in 1989 speech

fdd.org · by Benjamin Weinthal Research Fellow · February 23, 2021

From my FDD colleague.

Excerpt (truth in advertising: Rabbi Cooper is a fellow board member on the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea)

 

11. Army switches up cyber leadership

c4isrnet.com · by Mark Pomerleau · February 23, 2021

Excerpt:

“Leaders have said this tighter synergy allows for greater advancements in cyber policy, doctrine and capabilities because doctrine writers can sit alongside operations on mission. It also allows operators and commanders to easily transition lessons learned to the schoolhouse to update curricula.

Army Cyber Command is in the midst of a multiyear effort to transition from just cyberspace operations to an “information advantage,” which seeks to fold in the larger information domain to include electromagnetic spectrum operations and information operations.”

 

12.  General Officer Assignments (Army)

defense.gov

Despite the Administration and DOD transition the Army keeps rolling along. A lot of changes are coming.  Note a "power couple" departing from Korea.

 

13. Hackers Tied to Russia's GRU Targeted the US Grid for Years

Wired · by Andy Greenberg

It is only a matter of time.

Excerpts:

“While none among the ever-growing list of hacker groups targeting industrial control systems around the world appears to have used those control systems to trigger actual disruptive effects in 2020, Dragos warns that the sheer number of those groups represents a disturbing trend. Caltagirone points to a rare but relatively crude intrusion targeting a small water treatment plant in Oldsmar, Florida earlier this month, in which a still-unidentified hacker attempted to vastly increase the levels of caustic lye in the 15,000-person city's water. Given the lack of protections on those sorts of small infrastructure targets, a group like Kamacite, Caltagirone argues, could easily trigger widespread, harmful effects even without the industrial-control system expertise of a partner group like Electrum.

That means the rise in even relatively unskilled groups poses a real threat, Caltagirone says. The number of groups targeting industrial control systems has been continually growing, he adds, ever since Stuxnet showed at the beginning of the last decade that industrial hacking with physical effects is possible. "A lot of groups are appearing, and there are not a lot going away," says Caltagirone. "In three to four years, I feel like we're going to reach a peak, and it will be an absolute catastrophe."

 

14. Nuclear warfare or cyber warfare: which is the bigger threat?

aspistrategist.org.au · by John Powers · February 24, 2021

It is not either/or, it is both/and - both can be catastrophic in their own ways though one might be much more likely that the other.  One can likely be deterred better than the other was well.

I will quibble a little with this excerpt.  Our adversaries view politics as war by other means.

 

15. The Mysterious Origins of the Secretary of Defense ‘Exclusion’ Clause: Truman, Hoffman, and the Chowder Marines

warontherocks.com · by Paula Thornhill · February 24, 2021

Some interesting history here.

 

16. SecDef Austin to Troops: If You've Seen Extremism in the Ranks, Tell Your Commander

military.com · by Stephen Losey · February 23, 2021

I cannot emphasize this enough:  We have to be careful not to play into the narrative of the extremist organizations.   Yes, we must root out extremism.  But an overreaction by military leaders is what the extremists would like to see happen as it will not only generate more sympathizers, if not recruits, it will undermine the good order and discipline of the military.

 

17. Twitter reveals state-backed influence operations from Armenia, Iran and Russia

washingtontimes.com · by Ryan Lovelace

18. Putting Human Rights at the Center of U.S. Foreign Policy

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State

Hear, hear.

 

19.  Feast to Famine: Nine Recommendations for Maintaining American Military Primacy with Reduced Funding

mwi.usma.edu · by Charles Dvorak · February 24, 2021

Conclusion: 

“Collectively, these recommendations point to two overarching requirements that will emerge in the face of substantial budget cuts: reducing personnel and systems while also increasing flexibility. These recommendations are not made lightly; implementing them would mean major, even transformational, changes for the US military. However, if the Department of Defense does not begin conceptualizing ways of redefining the role and capabilities of the US military, budgetary pressures will likely force that decision in the long run. It will be in America’s interest to shape that process now rather than in the throes of economic upheaval, the challenges of a future war, or both.”

An interesting recommendation here.  I have seen this proposed elsewhere:

 

20. Biden Wants to Compete With China. Here’s How.

Foreign Policy · by Elise Labott · February 22, 2021

To borrow from the Clinton era, "its values, stupid."

Conclusion: Biden, in his inaugural address, urged the United States to “lead not merely by the example of our power but by the power of our example.” That starts by strengthening withered institutions and restoring the rule of law, the pillars of U.S. democracy, and the soft power that did once—and can again—give the United States a competitive edge.

 

21. Women linked to Abu Sayyaf suicide bombings arrested in Sulu

Al Jazeera English

Not a good sign for the Philippines.  But good job in preventing potential bombings.

Excerpts:

“But Western Mindanao Command chief Lieutenant General Corleto Vinluan later told reporters that the women had undergone an “orientation” programme on suicide bombing and were assembling explosives in their homes.

“They are using wives and widows now because they are having a hard time recruiting men, and it is more difficult to identify and detect the female suicide bombers,” Vinluan was quoted by news reports as saying.

Earlier this month, at least four Abu Sayyaf members surrendered to authorities, the military said, bringing to almost 100 the number of fighters who have turned themselves in over the last year.”

 

22. A U.S. strategy paper on China draws a tepid response in Beijing

CNBC · by Evelyn Cheng · February 24, 2021

Which should not be surprising to anyone.

Excerpts:

“Scattered online commentary about "The Longer Telegram" have remained dismissive.

In a roughly 30-minute video from Feb. 5 that has more than 900,000 views, Fudan University professor Shen Yi dismissed as a joke the paper's attempt to replicate Kennan's efforts.

An online article from Feb. 7 by Zhongnan University of Economics and Law professor Qiao Xinsheng said in an online article the strategy paper fails to accurately analyze the Soviet Union's own difficulties and that the U.S. should not expect China to "disintegrate."

 

---------------

 

“I think that Ronald Reagan wanted to hear other people's views, and he always listened carefully, and from time to time he changed his own mind about a position. And especially he took pains to listen carefully to foreign leaders with whom he was dealing.” 

-Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

"It is not because the truth is too difficult to see that we make mistakes... we make mistakes because the easiest and most comfortable course for us is to seek insight where it accords with our emotions - especially selfish ones." 

- Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

“Get beyond love and grief: exist for the good of Man.” 

-  Miyamoto Musashi, A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1.  How China’s Digital Silk Road Is Leading Countries Away from the United States

2.  Who Should Lead Paramilitary Operations? – Picking the Right Fight

3. U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF): Background and Issues for Congress Updated February 22, 2021

4. Pressure mounts on Beijing in the South China Sea

5. Get More Americans Working at the United Nations

6. Can the US under Biden change the UNHRC? - opinion

7. China’s Weaponization of Rare Earths Is Bound to Backfire

8. Secretary Blinken: Remarks at the High-Level Segment of the Conference on Disarmament

9. George Kennan and the Long Telegram - 75th Anniversary

10. Pentagon Gives A Glimpse Of Special Forces’ Secret Hand-Launched Jammer Drone

11. Why the Kremlin’s Anti-Navalny Strategy Just Might Work

12. Don’t Knock Yourself Out: How America Can Turn the Tables on China by Giving Up the Fight for Command of the Seas

13. A New African Counter-Terrorism Strategy: An Opportunity For Biden Administration

14. The Burning City Upon a Hill

15. Four Flashpoints in the China-U.S. Cold War

16. German special forces mistaken for terrorists after training mix-up in Arizona

17. Pentagon budget must prioritize the Navy, Air Force and cyber, lawmakers say

18. Elements of first HIMARS long-range rocket launcher arrived in Romania

19. The One Area Where the US COVID-19 Strategy Seems to Be Working

20. A Simple Way to Reduce Polarization: Learn the Other Side Thinks of You in Surprisingly Positive Ways

21. Americans' Lust To 'Cancel' One Another Should Spark Soul Searching

 

1.  How China’s Digital Silk Road Is Leading Countries Away from the United States 

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

I hate to beat a dead horse but this article seems to illustrate much of this statement: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

How China’s Digital Silk Road Is Leading Countries Away from the United States

 

2. Who Should Lead Paramilitary Operations? – Picking the Right Fight

Small Wars Journal · Ian McConnell

 

3. U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF): Background and Issues for Congress Updated February 22, 2021

Small Wars Journal· February 22, 2021

 

4. Pressure mounts on Beijing in the South China Sea

asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · February 23, 2021

Excerpts:

“Beijing’s new maritime law has provoked outrage among US’ allies in Asia, since it calls on China’s massive fleet of coast guard forces, along with auxiliary paramilitary vessels, to use “all means necessary,” including shooting at “intruders,” across the contested waters.

The latest moves by the US in the contested area came on the heels of US President Joe Biden’s characterization of the Asian powerhouse as America’s “most serious competitor” because of its allegedly direct assault on the post-World War II “global governance” structures established under Washington’s leadership.

Though expressing his openness to “work with China when it benefits the American people,” the new US president has largely adopted the former Trump administration’s agency.’

 

5. Get More Americans Working at the United Nations

realclearworld.com · by Morgan Lorraine Viña

I do think it would be good to have more Americans working at the UN in the right capacities of course.

But keep in mind the UN oath:

“As UN staff members, the UN Charter calls on us to uphold the highest levels of efficiency, competence and integrity. This commitment is reflected in the Oath of Office we all took when we began our UN careers:

I solemnly declare and promise to exercise in all loyalty, discretion and conscience the functions entrusted to me as an international civil servant of the United Nations, to discharge these functions and regulate my conduct with the interests of the United Nations only in view, and not to seek or accept instructions in regard to the performance of my duties from any Government or other source external to the Organization. I also solemnly declare and promise to respect the obligations incumbent upon me as set out in the Staff Regulations and Rules.”

 

6. Can the US under Biden change the UNHRC? - opinion

Jerusalem Post· by Itzhak Levanon · February 22, 2021

This Is the key question: can we do more from the inside or more by withdrawing not only our participation but our funding as well?

Excerpts:

“Two steps, if taken, will allow both the US and Israel to live in peace with the council. The first is to annul the article which singles Israel out for criticism. Israel shall be equal to all members of the UNHRC. Like all others, Israel will face the scrutiny of the council – fairly.

The second step would be to change the process of the election of members of the council for three years. Today this election takes place on a regional basis. Instead, the countries should be elected on their merits, their performance in regard to human rights. That way, we will put an end to the farce that rogue countries such as Syria, Iran, Cuba and others sit without impunity on the stage of the council.”

 

7.  China’s Weaponization of Rare Earths Is Bound to Backfire

Bloomberg · by David Fickling · February 22, 2021

"That which does not kill me makes me stronger."

 

8. Secretary Blinken: Remarks at the High-Level Segment of the Conference on Disarmament

geneva.usmission.gov · by U.S. Mission Geneva

 

9. George Kennan and the Long Telegram - 75th Anniversary

nsarchive.gwu.edu · February 22, 2021

Yesterday was the anniversary.

 

10. Pentagon Gives A Glimpse Of Special Forces’ Secret Hand-Launched Jammer Drone

Forbes · by David Hambling · February 18, 2021

 

11. Why the Kremlin’s Anti-Navalny Strategy Just Might Work

The Moscow Times · by Alexander Baunov · February 18, 2021

Published in the Moscow Times.

 

12. Don’t Knock Yourself Out: How America Can Turn the Tables on China by Giving Up the Fight for Command of the Seas

warontherocks.com · by Paul van Hooft · February 23, 2021

Interesting thesis and conclusion:

“Finally, if the United States continues to want to actively uphold deterrence and reassurance in the Western Pacific, it should prepare for a war of attrition. The United States needs more shooters rather than more ships. Some of the proposed measures in the tri-service strategy go in that direction, specifically putting “greater numbers of distributable capabilities over fewer exquisite platforms,” relying more on unmanned vehicles, and investing in sealift and logistics. Yet, stand-off weapons alone will not suffice to reassure without a simultaneous land-based physical presence to address the asymmetry in stakes. The United States would need to accept its vulnerability over a prolonged period of time to demonstrate its willingness to incur costs, or simply to ensure it has enough forces and materiel in the region. Indeed, the new defense secretary seems to believe that more bases are required. Dispersion across more locations within the region, as well as mobile launchers, would increase the survivability of U.S. forces without lowering the American stake in the region. However, it remains unclear whether the American public would or should accept such risks.

In short, the United States should not trap itself by framing the rise of China as an existential struggle between two titans that depends on the United States retaining command of the Western Pacific. Continuing on the current path allows China to focus all of its capabilities in its backyard, while the alternative forces China into solving multiple problems. In any case, the United States should avoid placing all its bets on a decisive confrontation or one where escalation is unpredictable. Against a near-peer competitor that can bring both its land- and sea-based assets to bear, this is unnecessary and too great a risk. The American ship would be a fool to fight a Chinese fort.”

 

13. A New African Counter-Terrorism Strategy: An Opportunity For Biden Administration

breakingdefense.com · by Murielle Delaporte

Excerpts:

“The Biden Administration could increase its support for the G5 Joint Force in Sahel, a fully-owned African solution that demonstrates how Western and African forces can work together to not only contain, but eradicate terrorist violence and control illegal trafficking. Western boots on the ground could simply lead to another endless war; ending Western engagement in the region would only fuel terrorism in Africa, Europe and beyond.

As the new administration reviews its military footprint under Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin supervision (including probably the consolidation of U.S. Army Europe and U.S. Army Africa into a new command called U.S. Army Europe and Africa – USAREUR-AF – announced last November and planned for the end of 2022), the lessons learned from relying on local forces who have the best knowledge of the contingencies they face on territories they know intimately should be brought to light.

Supporting a toolset such as the G5 Joint Force in Sahel constitutes in that sense a genuine springboard for future transnational stability, accountability and peace, as its main focus is cross-border operations coordination, the key to defeating the terrorist group’s current strategy.”

 

14.  The Burning City Upon a Hill

warontherocks.com · by Hilde Eliassen Restad · February 23, 2021

Quite provocative.

Conclusion:

“The United States is neither John Winthrop’s “city upon a hill” nor Reagan’s “shining city.” Rather, it is a burning city on a hill. While that was always the case to some extent at home, rarely did the fire spread to U.S. foreign policy. The bipartisan foreign policy consensus that characterized much of post-World War II U.S. foreign policy lies now in ashes. While it was probably time to end this historical era of U.S. foreign policy, the question becomes: Now what? By the time the United States figures out how to build back a better foreign policy, the rest of the world may have moved on.”

 

15.  Four Flashpoints in the China-U.S. Cold War

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · February 22, 2021

An interesting grouping.

A sobering conclusion:

“Finally, the U.S. faces a harder road in this contest than many Americans realize. China’s global favorability ratings have taken a swan dive due to its role in the Covid-19 epidemic and the brutish tendencies of the Communist regime. But Beijing wields a combination of economic carrots and coercive sticks more impressive than anything the Soviet Union commanded; it has made inroads not simply with developing countries but with some of America’s key allies.

“We are in the midst of a fundamental debate about the future direction of our world,” Joe Biden declared at last week's Munich Security Conference, between rival superpowers that represent rival systems of government. For generations, America has been an unbeatable competitor because it leads a free-world posse that gives it a preponderance of global power. Yet if Washington can’t keep the pivotal states onside in the coming years, it may get a bitter education in what it is like to lose a great-power rivalry.”

 

16. German special forces mistaken for terrorists after training mix-up in Arizona

news.yahoo.com · by Justin Huggler · February 22, 2021

Oops.  But at least people are being vigilant.

 

17. Pentagon budget must prioritize the Navy, Air Force and cyber, lawmakers say

Defense News · by Joe Gould, David Larter · February 22, 2021

 

18. Elements of first HIMARS long-range rocket launcher arrived in Romania

actmedia.eu · by ACTMedia - Romanian Business News· February 22, 2021

Excerpt:

"Having in view the diversity of situations in which the Romanian Army must participate with troops, both on the national territory and particularly abroad, equipping the structures of the Land Forces Staff with high-performance enhanced-capability support means specific to both classical and unconventional warfare is a must. The long-range multiple rocket launching system is capable of providing combat support both during the participation of the forces in military actions, as well as during the training process. The multiple rocket launcher systems, which are an important part of the ground artillery system, will act independently or integrated with the other systems for the accomplishment of the missions," the National Defense Ministry states.”

 

19. The One Area Where the US COVID-19 Strategy Seems to Be Working

defenseone.com · by Olga Khazan · February 22, 2021

 

20. A Simple Way to Reduce Polarization: Learn the Other Side Thinks of You in Surprisingly Positive Ways

allsides.com· by Rolf Hendriks · February 22, 2021

A public service announcement!

 

21. Americans' Lust To 'Cancel' One Another Should Spark Soul Searching

Reason · by Liia Galimzianova · February 19, 2021

 

--------

 

"Americans need to face the truth about themselves, no matter how pleasant it is."

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

"I disapprove of what you say,

but I will defend to the death your right to say it." 

- S.G. Tallentyre

 

"You didn't wait six months for a feasibility study to prove that an idea could work. You gambled that it might work. You didn't tie up the organization with red tape designed mostly to cover somebody's ass. You took the initiative and the responsibility. You went around end, you went over somebody's head if you had to. But you acted. That's what drove the regular military and the State Department chair-warmers crazy about the OSS.” 

- William Casey on the OSS

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. US remains focused on NK denuclearization: Blinken

2. A Principled US Diplomatic Strategy Toward North Korea

Small Wars Journal3. Record 40.4% in Japan see ties with South Korea as 'not important'

4. Unification minister renews calls for inter-Korean response system against infectious diseases

5. N.K. man caught on coastal CCTV cameras 10 times, military failed to respond

6. FDD | Biden Administration Should Not Provide Sanctions Relief for Terrorism

7. Gov't to Push Ahead with Light Aircraft Carrier Project

8. [Column] Hopes and fears about Biden’s North Korean policy

9. Seoul says unfreezing Iranian fund in Korea requires US approval first

10. S. Korea, Tehran Agree 'Proposals' On Oil Billions: Seoul

11. North Korean women get 240 days of childbirth leave: report

12. US leadership crucial for regional peace

13. UN World Food Programme warns could suspend work in N. Korea

14. North Korean defector Ji Seong-ho honored with human rights award

15. North Korea Orders State Firms to Raise Rabbits For Public Meat Stocks At Their Expense

16. Report: North Korea's trade with China declined 80% in 2020

17. Jill Biden's Majordomo Gina Lee Speaks out

 

1. US remains focused on NK denuclearization: Blinken

koreaherald.com · by Kim So-hyun · February 23, 2021

He reads (and follows) his boss' guidance:

“Words matter -- and a president's words matter even more. As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops. I'll engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula, while working to reunite Korean Americans separated from loved ones in North Korea for decades.” (Yonhap, October 30, 2020, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201030000500325)

Everyone speculates about the new Korea policy. They should start here:

Strong alliance

Principled diplomacy

Denuclearization of the north

reuniting separate families 

Unified Korea peninsula

In short: strong ROK/US alliance, diplomacy, denuclearization (of the north), human rights, unification.

 

2. A Principled US Diplomatic Strategy Toward North Korea

38north.org · by 38 North · February 22, 2021

38 North is the first I have seen to acknowledge President Biden's guidance.

Now the question is the interpretation of the guidance and the implementation policy and strategy. What I find lacking in this prescriptive policy list is an accounting for the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. This is an outline of principled diplomacy in the eyes of 38 North and will be very appealing to many - to include Kim Jong-un who likely views this as a target of opportunity for further execution of his political warfare strategy. But it also does not go far enough to implement the President's guidance to achieve the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests on the peninsula and in the region, namely, unification.

 

3. Record 40.4% in Japan see ties with South Korea as 'not important'

japantimes.co.jp · February 20, 2021

Not surprising, but of course not helpful either.

 

4. Unification minister renews calls for inter-Korean response system against infectious diseases

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 23, 2021

I think the regime would view this as internal meddling and they would accuse the South of espionage as they tried to collect information on infectious diseases. The regime does not want the outside world to know too much about what is happening inside the north.

 

5. N.K. man caught on coastal CCTV cameras 10 times, military failed to respond

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · February 23, 2021

Boots on the ground. Patrolling, use technology to supplement and enhance but not replace the critical human component of defense.

 

6. FDD | Biden Administration Should Not Provide Sanctions Relief for Terrorism

fdd.org · by Matthew Zweig, Alireza Nader, and Richard Goldberg · February 22, 2021

Excerpts;

“It is also important to recall that Democratic and Republican administrations have determined that for over a decade, Tehran has “allowed [al-Qaeda] facilitators to operate a core facilitation pipeline through” Iranian territory, “enabling [al-Qaeda] to move funds and fighters to South Asia and Syria.”

The large body of publicly available evidence that the CBI has played key a role in financing terrorism warrants its designation as an SDGT. The Biden administration could significantly, if not fatally, undermine the credibility of U.S. terrorism sanctions if it were to lift or waive terrorism designations against the CBI or other Iranian entities based on a desire to provide Iran JCPOA-related sanctions relief, rather than based on evidence that those entities have verifiably ceased financing or facilitating terrorism.

For the safety and security of all Americans, there should be no “tradeoff” when it comes to terrorism directed, sponsored, and/or supported by Iran and a limited, temporary, and flawed nuclear agreement with Tehran.”

 

7. Gov't to Push Ahead with Light Aircraft Carrier Project

english.chosun.com· February 22, 2021

I would much rather have South Korea build a light aircraft carrier than a nuclear powered submarine.

 

8. [Column] Hopes and fears about Biden’s North Korean policy

Hani · Moon Chung-in

Note this excerpt:

To borrow a phrase from Harvard University Professor Joseph Nye, it’s time we gained some “contextual intelligence” about North Korea. It hardly needs to be said that the South Korean government is the Biden administration’s most critical partner for gaining that intelligence.

We need to understand the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. The South's strategic assumptions are dangerous to the security of the ROK - Moon Chung-in and the Moon administration assume Kim Jong-un wants peace and shares in the peace and reconciliation and peaceful coexistence vision. This is a dangerous assumption and is contrary to the history, culture, and political statements by the regime. With all due respect to the extensive expertise that exists in South Korea about the north (most all of which is not part of the current administration), it would be a strategic error to turn to the Moon administration for "contextual intelligence.' 

 

9.Seoul says unfreezing Iranian fund in Korea requires US approval first

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · February 23, 2021

Seoul says unfreezing Iranian fund in Korea requires US approval first

 

10. S. Korea, Tehran Agree 'Proposals' On Oil Billions: Seoul

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

 

11. North Korean women get 240 days of childbirth leave: report

The Korea Times · February 23, 2021

In addition, as a measure to encourage having children I think this might also be part of the campaign to make the north appear more normal. In addition this could also be perceived as a human rights issue and they ar showing they are concerned with the welfare of families. The north is threatened by human rights criticism and this might be one way to demonstrate (in the regime' calculation) a concern for human rights.

 

12. US leadership crucial for regional peace

The Korea Times · by Kim Won-soo · February 23, 2021

I think the headline is 100%correct.

An interesting recommendation here:

“All of these require U.S. leadership. The first step is to appoint a high level focal point in the U.S. administration. The role played by the former Secretary of Defense William Perry as a senior coordinator on the Korean peninsula issues can be taken into account.”

 

13. UN World Food Programme warns could suspend work in N. Korea

24matins.uk · February 23, 2021

Again, it is the policy decision by Kim Jong-un that is responsible for the suffering of the Korean people.

 

14.  North Korean defector Ji Seong-ho honored with human rights award

upi.com · Elizabeth Shim· February 23, 2021

Much deserved. Ji Seong-ho is an inspiration. 

 

15. North Korea Orders State Firms to Raise Rabbits For Public Meat Stocks At Their Expense

rfa.org · Hyemin Son

The north has gone down this rabbit hole before.

 

16.  Report: North Korea's trade with China declined 80% in 2020

upi.com · Elizabeth Shim · February 22, 2021

This Is the result of KimJong-un's policy decisions.

 

17. Jill Biden's Majordomo Gina Lee Speaks out

english.chosun.com · February 22, 2021

 

--------------

 

"Americans need to face the truth about themselves, no matter how pleasant it is."

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

"I disapprove of what you say,

but I will defend to the death your right to say it." 

- S.G. Tallentyre

 

"You didn't wait six months for a feasibility study to prove that an idea could work. You gambled that it might work. You didn't tie up the organization with red tape designed mostly to cover somebody's ass. You took the initiative and the responsibility. You went around end, you went over somebody's head if you had to. But you acted. That's what drove the regular military and the State Department chair-warmers crazy about the OSS.” 

- William Casey on the OSS

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. America's vaccine rollout has been among the best in the world

2. Are Confucius Institutes in the US Really Necessary?

3. Austin vows stronger action against sexual assault in the military

4. How to Spot 11 Types of Media Bias

5. COVID Conspiracy Disinformation Campaign Has Had Vast Reach, Study Finds

6. Former Trump deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger details "grave misstep" in pandemic response

7. The Journalistic Tattletale and Censorship Industry Suffers Several Well-Deserved Blows

8. A Macedonian misinformation site dominated Parler before the Capitol riot

9. Four Taiwan ex-intelligence officers charged with spying for mainland China

10. Tom Cotton’s big plan to “beat China,” explained

11. Conspiracy theories — unmasked! From Winston Churchill to QAnon in a few easy steps

12. US Citizen Among the Advisers to Myanmar Military Regime Despite Sanctions Imposed by US

13. Philippines military keen to keep U.S. troop deal - minister

14. Somalia Is Headed Towards Another Tragic Collapse

15. The AI research paper was real. The “co-author” wasn’t

 

1. America's vaccine rollout has been among the best in the world

Axios · by Dave Lawler

At least as "compared to other wealthy countries."

A global map at the link: https://www.axios.com/vaccine-distribution-by-country-us-rollout-doses-9c47fa53-6a2e-4c56-8792-dd31bee34b10.html?

 

2. Are Confucius Institutes in the US Really Necessary?

thediplomat.com – by Gary Sands - February 20, 2021

I want Americans to learn Mandarin and to understand China (Although as an English major and political science minor, our daughter is in her third year of Mandarin language study but through the normal college language classes with no association to Confucius Institutes - although her university did consider partnering with Confucius institutes about 6 years ago but were concerned with Chinese influence on the curriculum.)  I just do not think we should "delegate" that responsibility to the Chinese Communist Party.

Excerpts:

There is nothing inherently wrong with the idea of a government-sponsored cultural institute assuming the important task of teaching the language, culture, and values of their nation to others (and there are many other examples: Alliance Francaise, American Centers, the British Council, the Goethe Institute, etc.). But should any institute censor certain information or distort history for geopolitical gain, host nations should either require changes or terminate their operation.

Any actions taken by the new Congress to further regulate Confucius Institutes will no doubt appeal to the two-thirds of U.S. voters holding a negative view of China. But the inherent difficulties in effectively regulating the remaining 75 Confucius Institutes and 500 Confucius classrooms argue for more funding for the NSEP and for the expansion of other home-grown, fact-based alternatives.

 

3. Austin vows stronger action against sexual assault in the military

The Washington Post · February 19, 2021

This scourge must be dealt with. The video is one of the most troubling I have seen recently.  I hope the SECDEF (and leaders at all levels) will make progress. 

 

One of the things I respect about the new SECDEF is his willingness to take things head on and how he has immediately (and I think correctly) handled this issue. Too often we have heard statements from senior leaders saying, "I have no knowledge of such a video." 

“You can look for us to take additional steps in looking in detail at ourselves and what has worked, what hasn’t worked and what measures we need to take going forward to ensure that we provide for a safe and secure and productive environment for our teammates,” Austin told reporters. “I think any other approach is, in my view, irresponsible.”

Austin also addressed a raw, emotional TikTok video that spread widely on social media on Thursday night after it was posted by Not In My Marine Corps, a group that advocates for survivors of sexual assault and harassment among service members.

...

Asked about the Marine’s remarks, Austin said: “I found the video deeply disturbing, and I’ve asked my staff for additional information, and I’ll leave it at that.”

...

Austin declined to say more about any action he might take in the case. “We want to make sure that, you know, I preserve my ability to adjudicate or take action or whatever needs to happen,” he said. “But the first thing’s first — we have to get the facts.”

He admits seeing, provides his human view of it yet ensures the press he must preserve his ability to adjudicate the issues as a member of the chain of command.

 

4. How to Spot 11 Types of Media Bias

https://www.allsides.com/media-bias/how-to-spot-types-of-media-bias

I like the web site AllSides.com. This is a handy guide that we should all refer to regularly.  A PDF of this can be downloaded here: https://www.allsides.com/sites/default/files/11%20Types%20of%20Media%20Bias-AllSides.pdf

 

5. COVID Conspiracy Disinformation Campaign Has Had Vast Reach, Study Finds

voanews.com · by VOA News

China doth protest too much. Admit nothing, deny everything, make counter accusations.  I am glad to know the Chinese will not spread conspiracy theories.

Excerpts:

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs told AP it resolutely opposes spreading conspiracy theories.

"We have not done it before and will not do it in the future," the ministry said in a statement. "False information is the common enemy of mankind, and China has always opposed the creation and spread of false information."

 

6. Former Trump deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger details "grave misstep" in pandemic response

CBS News · by Emily Tillett, Margaret Brennan · February 20, 2021

A fascinating interview excerpt with the former Deputy NSA.

Two important excerpts:

Pottinger turned to the government of Taiwan to secure a batch of masks that he distributed to White House medical staff and the national security team that reported to him. He said the remainder was donated to the national stockpile. The CDC did not issue formal guidance on mask wearing to the public until April.

...

Pottinger rang early alarms inside the Trump administration regarding the virus' potential ferocity and impact on the U.S. He said the information that he was receiving from making personal calls to doctors on the ground in China provided more accurate information than what was being shared by the Chinese government with their CDC counterparts.

Note the importance of personal relationships.  I think we forget that before Matt was a national security official and a Marine Captain, he was a journalist with the Wall Street Journal. He was probably doing what few national security officials could do based on his fluency in Mandarin and his likely contacts cultivated while he was a journalist.  In the era of fake news and the discrediting of journalists I think we should view this as an example of how important journalists and their skills can be to national security.  Of course, it would be better if people had paid more attention to Matt's warnings as they should to journalists' warnings.  Open source and all source information is vital to national security. 

 

7. The Journalistic Tattletale and Censorship Industry Suffers Several Well-Deserved Blows

greenwald.substack.com · by Glenn Greenwald

I admit that I have never liked Glenn Greenwald's agenda or his reporting. But lately he has been writing some pretty useful exposes.

 

8.  A Macedonian misinformation site dominated Parler before the Capitol riot

protocol.com · by Issie Lapowsky · February 17, 2021

Go figure:

According to the report, among the many misinformation sites that filled Parler before the Jan. 6 uprising, the site that appeared most frequently was American Conservatives Today, which launched just a month before the riot and appeared to be run out of Macedonia. It was linked to nearly 3,000 times in a single week.

Other sites that proliferated on Parler that week include a network of Islamophobic sites reportedly run out of Israel, a video site linked to InfoWars' Alex Jones and a QAnon conspiracy theory site. In addition to these peddlers of fake news, NewsGuard also found more than 1,000 links to weapon sales, prepper gear, nutritional supplements and other merchandise.

 

9. Four Taiwan ex-intelligence officers charged with spying for mainland China

View Original – by Agency France-Presse

So about 3 or 4 years ago I was in Taiwan participating in an Army asymmetric warfare conference. I was in a room with about a dozen Americans and about 100 Taiwanese army officers.  The Chief of Staff of the Army was giving his remarks. He told us one of the challenges for the Taiwan military was Chinese espionage against the active duty military as well as the exploitation of retired military officers who were not well compensated by the Taiwanese government in retirement. He said to this audience that he knew there were PRC spies in the very room in which he was speaking.

As part of the conference in one of the working groups we were asked to provide counterintelligence recommendations for the Chinese espionage threat.  Here is the summary of the proposal I outlined.  Since it was understood the military was penetrated they could take advantage of this by establishing a new program for retired military personnel. In simple terms if a retired military officer is approached by a Chinese recruiter he can immediately report it to the Taiwanese CI service. He will be allowed to be recruited and accept Chinese compensation.  However, he will also have such compensation matched by the Taiwanese government to work as a double agent and feed Taiwanese CI approved information to his Chinese handlers.  Because this program will be immediately exposed to the Chinese upon development and implementation through their already established network, it will likely fail.  However, the real purpose of the program is to make all retired Taiwanese officers of no more value to the Chinese since they will have to assume every one of them will act as a double agent and therefore cannot be trusted. Of course another course of action would be to sufficiently compensate retired military personnel in retirement.

 

10. Tom Cotton’s big plan to “beat China,” explained

Vox · by Alex Ward · February 19, 2021

The 84 page report can be downloaded here: https://www.cotton.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/210216_1700_China%20Report_FINAL.pdf

Excerpts:

The senator highlighted how the World Trade Organization has failed to rein in China’s economic malpractices on a large scale. That’s not to say the US shouldn’t try to reform that or other institutions.

But if China won’t play by the rules, or the group won’t hold China’s actions accountable, then he’d rather Washington leave and form new bodies. That way, the US “can ensure that international rules and standards are written to support emerging technologies where America is naturally suited to prevail.”

This stance is similar to Donald Trump’s, who as president also didn’t want to stay in international organizations he deemed friendly to China. President Joe Biden, meanwhile, thinks the US can only challenge Beijing if the US stays in such institutions.

Cotton’s other suggestions are essentially just restatements of proposals he espoused in the “how to decouple” section, namely government funding for research, development, and training in key industries. They underscore the senator’s central thesis that any moves to untangle US-China economic ties must feature corresponding actions to mitigate the resulting disruption.

For Wake Forest’s Benabdallah, that vision reflects the growing bipartisan consensus about America’s future economic ties with China. “This really puts into writing the view coming from DC that US-China relations are a zero-sum game,” she told me. “It’s very logical to say the US needs to do all this, but it’s another story when you see what that really means.”

Maine’s Vekasi echoed that sentiment: A lot of what Cotton said should be considered and thought about more deeply, especially the rare-earth materials part. But until it’s clear that unless the US can find less painful and cumbersome ways to sever economic relations with China, little of what the senator proposes will come true.

“It’s a pipe dream,” she said.

 

11. Conspiracy theories — unmasked! From Winston Churchill to QAnon in a few easy steps

Salon – by Paul Rosenberg - February 20, 2021

Yes this is from Salon for those who check sources and will disregard information based on the source.  But I would submit this is a fascinating interview and provides some very useful food for thought from a historical perspective.  I will look for the follow-on parts in this series.

 

12. US Citizen Among the Advisers to Myanmar Military Regime Despite Sanctions Imposed by US

irrawaddy.com – by Nyein Nyein - February 20, 2021

Unlike other Americans such as Dave Eubank and the Free Burma Rangers and Tim Heinneman and Worldwide Impact Now who continue to support the oppressed tribes of Burma.

 

13. Philippines military keen to keep U.S. troop deal - minister

news.yahoo.com – by Karen Lema

Yes I am sure he is.  It is only the president who wants to extort the US.

 

14. Somalia Is Headed Towards Another Tragic Collapse

19fortyfive.com · by Michael Rubin · February 19, 2021

Excerpt: Somalis are today putting their lives on the line for democracy. It is time to listen. If the international community remains deaf or arrogantly insists they know better, the result will be a disaster that will reverberate far beyond Somalia’s borders.

 

15. The AI research paper was real. The “co-author” wasn’t

Ars Technica · by Will Knight · February 21, 2021

 

 

"Own only what you can always carry with you: know languages, know countries, know people. Let your memory be your travel bag."

- Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

“Think lightly of yourself and deeply of the world”

- Miyamoto Musashi, A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy

 

“Democracy not only requires equality but also an unshakable conviction in the value of each person, who is then equal”

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Defectors to sue unification minister for alleged defamation

2. US generals war Seoul against rush to revamp joint command

3. A quiet North Korea

4. Rebuild the trilateral cooperation (ROK-Japan-US)

5. France sends frigate to East China Sea to join surveillance on North Korea

6. North Korea defections 'zero' as meth smuggling and Covid make it impossible to escape

7. North Korea’s economy is ravaged by sanctions and pandemic isolation. Kim is lashing out.

8. North Koreans piloted Bank of Valletta heist with Nigerian social media influencer

9. Ramseyer ‘comfort women’ paper challenged by historians

10. North Korea's nukes aren't going anywhere, and the US needs to get over it

11. ICAS Strategy poll - Moon's Peace Process Doomed To Fail The Security Of Korean Peninsula

12. Outcome of Korea-U.S.-Japan Trilateral Video Teleconference (Feb. 19)

13. South Korea’s prime minister has joined Clubhouse

14. Kimchi feud: Korea rallies support from foreign envoys

 

1. Defectors to sue unification minister for alleged defamation

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 21, 2021

An opportunity to demonstrate rule of law versus rule by law.

 

2. US generals war Seoul against rush to revamp joint command

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · February 21, 2021

There is only one general that has publicly stated this and that is General Bell who is the only retired GO named in the article. General Abrams' statement is consistent with the US position (and the position of military and national security professionals in both the ROK and the US): the conditions must be met to proceed with OPCON transition.

But this article perpetuates so many misconceptions about OPCON transition.

First OPCON transition does not necessarily mean withdrawal of the nuclear umbrella. 

Second, OPCON is not being transferred from Washington to Seoul.  The future ROK/US Combined Forces Command that is commanded by a ROK general officer will still report to the Military Committee just as the current ROK/US/CFC with a US general in command does. The US DOES NOT control the ROK/US CFC and the ROKG will not control the future ROK/US CFC when OPCON transition is complete.  It will be jointly controlled equally for each country through its representatives from their respective national command and military authorities on the Military Committee just as it is now.  This is why I think one of the most important conditions for OPCON transition is sufficient information being provided to the press, pundits, politicos, and public so there is a sufficient understanding of what OPCON transition means. The ROK/US Military Committee needs to direct the implementation of a comprehensive information campaign to inform and educate. Successful execution of this should be the fourth condition necessary for OPCON transition.

But I do not think this is ever going to happen.  US nuclear weapons will always remain under US control.  While consultation is of course appropriate I do not believe any foreign officer is going to be integrated into the nuclear use decision making process. 

The US should offer South Korea a major role in implementing the nuclear options if Seoul takes charge, Bennett added.

“I also believe that the conditions have not yet been met, and that the training on the employment nuclear weapons and integration of ROK personnel into this process is going to take some time.”

 

3. A quiet North Korea

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com – by Kim Pil-Kyu

South Korea is calling for the appointment of a US Special representative for north Korea. 

I have received a number of queries from the press about rumors the Biden administration does not intend to appoint a special representative for north Korea nor a special envoy for north Korean human rights. 

I think we have to be patient. I am confident that a special envoy for north Korean human rights will be appointed in due time.  The North Korea Human Rights Act of 2004 specified that “the President shall appoint a special envoy for human rights in North Korea within the Department of State.”  https://www.congress.gov/bill/108th-congress/house-bill/4011/text
I am confident the Biden administration will comply with the law.
There is no statutory requirement for a special representative for north Korea that I am aware of. It is possible the Biden administration will want to assign the responsibility to an existing State Department position such as the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific.  Given the acting secretary Sung Kim's experience, if he is nominated for the permanent position he could perform the functions of the special envoy for north Korea.
However, what I think could be happening is that before any Korea specific appointments are made, the Biden administration will want to complete the policy review and develop the policy and strategy for the way forward.  In fact, I would think the possible appointees may actually be part of the policy review process.  I would try to determine who is conducting the review to discern who might be the possible nominees.

That said if the policy includes an arms control component the responsibility for that could fall to the arms control negotiations at State.

I also think the Kim family regime is not ready for engagement with the US given the current situation inside north Korea and the internal pressure on Kim Jong-un.  Paradoxically both Kim and Biden have to focus on domestic challenges in the near term.
The bottom line is I think we need to be patient and allow the policy review process to play out.  I strongly believe the Biden administration will comply with the law and at least appoint a special envoy for north Korean human rights.  If certain current State Department officials in existing positions have sufficient north Korean expertise they could be tasked with performing the duties of the special representative.  But again I think the administration will comply with the law and appoint a special envoy for human rights.

But the Joongang Ilbo editorial board is concerned about the lack of potential engagement between the north and the US:

It is concerning how long this uncomfortable silence will continue. If North Korea provokes, each side will have markedly less cards to play. Unless it is a top-down decision style of Trump, it would be harder to start the talks. North Korea would not want to waste the valuable time of the early days of a new administration in the U.S. That’s why we should care more about North Korea policy when Pyongyang is quiet.

 

4. Rebuild the trilateral cooperation (ROK-Japan-US)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

I am gratified to see the Korean media (some news outlets) advocate for better trilateral cooperation. To continue to beat the dead horse, I will again say there will be NO success on the Korean peninsula for any of the three nations without sufficient trilateral cooperation (and the stronger the better). 

I would push back slightly on the editorial board painting South Korea with a broad brush about neglecting the ROK/US alliance.  First, the professionals in MOFA and MND have not been neglecting the alliance. They have continued to do everything they can to sustain a strong alliance. Second, despite the anti-US sentiment within the extreme progressive wing of the ruling party, the Moon administration continues to invest heavily in both its own military and for sustaining the alliance.  I think that criticism detracts from the importance of this Oped in that trilateral cooperation is critical for the national security of all three nations.

 

5. France sends frigate to East China Sea to join surveillance on North Korea

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3122470/france-sends-frigate-east-china-sea-join-surveillance-north

This is a positive development. We need a strong international coalition to go after north Korean weapons proliferation as well as sanctions evasion activities (to include ship to ship transfers. Canada, Australia, the UK, Korea, and Japan are all contributing.  I know there is a joint (combined) operations center in Japan (that includes US, ROK, and Japanese naval officers and I assume our allied partners) that is focused on tracking north Korean malign maritime activity. 

 

6. North Korea defections 'zero' as meth smuggling and Covid make it impossible to escape

Mirror · by Chris White · February 20, 2021

An interesting assessment.

China is complicit in the human rights abuses of Koreans from the north.  We do need to put pressure on China.

 

7. North Korea’s economy is ravaged by sanctions and pandemic isolation. Kim is lashing out.

The Washington Post · February 20, 2021

The headline is not completely correct.  The north Korean economy is ravaged by the deliberate policy decisions made by Kim Jong-un in response to the natural disasters, COVID 19, and sanctions. He has the ability to fix the economy if he would make the right policy decisions.

Professor Lankov correctly illustrates Kim's "bankrupt" policy decisions here:

But Kim’s response to the crisis risks appears to be making the situation much worse.

Andrei Lankov, a Russian university professor based in Seoul, called it a “dramatic U-turn.” Kim has turned his back on even modest economic and market reforms and reverted back to de facto Leninism, emphasizing central planning while trying to clamp down on the private entrepreneurial activity that has become a mainstay of the country’s mixed economy, he said.

In speeches to the ruling party, Kim demanded the restoration and strengthening of the system under which the economy runs “under the unified guidance and management of the state,” putting special emphasis on metal and chemical industries as the “main link in the whole chain of economic development.”

Kim also announced plans to expand state control of society, clamp down on foreign culture and media, and launch a “powerful mass campaign against practices running counter to the socialist lifestyle.”

 

8. North Koreans piloted Bank of Valletta heist with Nigerian social media influencer

maltatoday.com.mt

Now here is an "alliance" to end all alliances: the mafia like crime family cult of the KFR and the Nigerian princes.

 

9.  Ramseyer ‘comfort women’ paper challenged by historians

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

 

10. North Korea's nukes aren't going anywhere, and the US needs to get over it

Business Insider · by Bonnie Kristian

Yes but...

That does not mean provide concessions or sanctions relief.  It does not mean we should legitimize the regime as a nuclear power.  We need to be very careful and not act in a way that Kim interprets his political warfare strategy as a success.  Instead we need to execute a superior form of political warfare strategy that has a long term view.  A new strategy must be built on deterrence, defense, denuclearization, and resolution of the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice Agreement) by employing a superior form of political warfare.  It should consist of 5 lines of effort: comprehensive diplomacy, resolute alliance military strength, pressure through enforced sanctions, cyber defense and offensive operations, and information and influence activities to target the regime elite, the second-tier leadership, and the population to undermine the legitimacy of the regime and separate the Kim family regime from the elite and the 2d tier leadership as well as to prepare the population for unification.  

 

11. ICAS Strategy poll - Moon's Peace Process Doomed To Fail The Security Of Korean Peninsula

icasinc.org

A supporting power point presentation with graphic data can be directly downloaded here: https://www.icasinc.org/strategy/polling15.pptx

 

12. Outcome of Korea-U.S.-Japan Trilateral Video Teleconference (Feb. 19) 

mofa.go.kr · by Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea

The ROK MOFA readout on the trilateral teleconference.  A positive step forward and I hope this continues on a routine basis.

 

13.   South Korea’s prime minister has joined Clubhouse

TechCrunch · by Danny Crichton

Certainly, an interesting development.

Excerpt:

According to local media reports, Chung spoke in a Clubhouse room for over an hour with fellow Democratic Party of Korea member Jung Cheong-rae. In a public Facebook post yesterday, the prime minister said that “I heard this [app] is ‘hot’ these days so I tried it as a nighttime walk.”

He further said “I was a little startled by the unexpected questions and reactions but the new experience was enjoyable. I think I’ll participate from time to time in the future.” Elaborating, he said “the fact that it’s audio-only and everyone can have a conversation without reserve made me think that it’s a better communication tool than any other social media platforms, especially since currently we’re living in the age of non-face-to-face communication.”

 

14. Kimchi feud: Korea rallies support from foreign envoys

The Korea Times – by Park Han-sol February 21, 2021

Who will win the soft power battle: Korea or China?  I have never seen Kimchi in China, though obviously I have never lived there and have not spent as much time there as I have in Korea (more than a decade of living there and a couple of more decades of travel there so I am biased).
 

 

"Own only what you can always carry with you: know languages, know countries, know people. Let your memory be your travel bag."

- Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

“Think lightly of yourself and deeply of the world”

- Miyamoto Musashi, A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy

 

“Democracy not only requires equality but also an unshakable conviction in the value of each person, who is then equal”

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Remarks by President Biden at the 2021 Virtual Munich Security Conference

2. Three Wars, No Victory – Why? By Bing West  

3. COVID conspiracy shows vast reach of Chinese disinformation

4. Estonian Intelligence: Russians will develop deepfake threats

5. Anti-Asian crimes a disgrace to US, must be stopped: US lawmakers

6. U.N. Report Accuses Blackwater Founder Erik Prince of Libya Weapons Ban Violations, Diplomat Says

7. U.S. investigating possible ties between Roger Stone, Alex Jones and Capitol rioters

8. Solzhenitsyn & the engine of history by Robert D. Kaplan

9. Biden Wants to Restore NATO. Macron Is Looking to Move On.

10. Biden Defends Democracy at Summits With European Allies, Seeing China as ‘Stiff’ Competition

11. Analysis | Biden sends an international message about democracy that resonates here at home

12. Trans-Atlantic 'Quad' prepares for new Eastern center of gravity

13. A strong offense can decrease cyberattacks on critical infrastructure

14. Will the Quad Evolve and Embrace Taiwan?

15. U.S. alleges wider Oath Keepers conspiracy, adds more defendants in Jan. 6 Capitol riot

16. ‘This Crap Means More to Him Than My Life’: When QAnon Invades American Homes

17. How to Wage a Counterinsurgency Against Organizational Culture

18. When Government Intelligence Agencies Encounter Nonstate Competitors

19. Biden to order review of U.S. reliance on overseas supply chains for semiconductors, rare earths

20. The US Puts Its Greatest Vulnerability on Display

 

1. Remarks by President Biden at the 2021 Virtual Munich Security Conference

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/19/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-2021-virtual-munich-security-conference/

We will be studying and parsing these remarks for some time to come.

Key excerpt (among many):

Historians are going to examine and write about this moment as an inflection point, as I said.  And I believe that — every ounce of my being — that democracy will and must prevail.  We must demonstrate that democracies can still deliver for our people in this changed world.  That, in my view, is our galvanizing mission.

Democracy doesn’t happen by accident.  We have to defend it, fight for it, strengthen it, renew it.  We have to prove that our model isn’t a relic of our history; it’s the single best way to revitalize the promise of our future.  And if we work together with our democratic partners, with strength and confidence, I know that we’ll meet every challenge and outpace every challenger.

Is there any American who can argue with the above statements?

I like how Nicholas Burns summaries the President's speech in this tweet:

This President Biden speech frames the major issue squarely:  we must compete with autocracies—China and Russia—and defend democracies when they are challenged.  The democratic world needs to be confident in its global role. @RNicholasBurns

My tweet in response: Simple, clear, and concise. But as Clausewitz said. "in war everything is simple, but even the simplest thing is hard." Defending our democracy and democracies around the world is going to take a lot of hard work. But it must be done. Now let's get to work.

 

2. Three Wars, No Victory – Why? By Bing West  

https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2021/03/08/three-wars-no-victory-why/ - by Bing West

Conclusion:

Of the three wars, only in Vietnam did the popular mood, as reflected in the press and in congressional votes, play the final, pivotal role in the failure.

In Iraq, by 2011 our military had established a solid path forward, as long as our troops remained the stabilizing force. In 2012, however, policy-makers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by peremptorily withdrawing our troops, allowing the terrorists to reconstitute and resulting in a mess by 2021. 

In Afghanistan, our security objective post-9/11 was to destroy the terrorist movement. That goal has been largely achieved. But the White House overreached by widening the mission to include nation-building. Our military commanders and the policy hub share equal responsibility for refusing to acknowledge that this was too ambitious. A self-sustaining democratic nation was achievable only if, as in South Korea, we were willing to stay in large numbers for 70 years. 

What lies ahead? Clearly we should be pivoting to deter China, and not to engage in another counterinsurgency. In terms of military strategy, the Marine Corps has emerged as innovative in shifting its focus accordingly. The capital investments, however, of the Navy and Air Force do not reflect a pivot to offset China. The Trump administration, while antagonizing our allies, did awaken the public hub to the threat of China’s ambitions. But if failure in our past three small wars tells us anything, it is that the policy hub emanating from the White House has grown too confident of its own quixotic infallibility, unchallenged by a divisive Congress that is supine in matters of war. When America is not determined, we lose. There is no sign that the policy hub has the humility to grasp that existential fact.

 

3. COVID conspiracy shows vast reach of Chinese disinformation

Philadelphia Inquirer · by ERIKA KINETZ

In case anyone missed this.

 

4. Estonian Intelligence: Russians will develop deepfake threats

euractiv.com · by Samuel Stolton · February 18, 2021

And China.  And Iran.  And north Korea. And nefarious non-State actors.

 

5. Anti-Asian crimes a disgrace to US, must be stopped: US lawmakers

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · February 20, 2021

What is wrong with us as Americans? Why do we do this? Why do we allow our fellow citizens to do this?  Paradoxically due to COVID 19 my Asian American wife and daughter are minimizing their exposure to these potential racists in public.

That said I do not think any laws will prevent these crimes that are perpetrated by ignorant racists.  And we need to be careful in passing laws that overreach and actually play into the narratives of extremists (and foreign entities conducting malign activities and disinformation) who foment this type of behavior.

Congressman Kim is correct here: "Rep. Andy Kim of New Jersey underscored the need for a whole-of-nation approach to address the issue, saying, “This problem cannot be addressed by any single level of government.”

 

6. U.N. Report Accuses Blackwater Founder Erik Prince of Libya Weapons Ban Violations, Diplomat Says

WSJ · by Jared Malsin

Excerpts:

The role in the effort of companies based in Dubai also highlights Mr. Prince’s close ties to the United Arab Emirates and its ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed. Mr. Prince has been linked to a range of mercenary efforts on behalf of the Emirates, including an effort to combat Somali pirates, according to a previous U.N. report. The U.A.E. also has been a key military backer of Mr. Haftar, sending air defenses, armed drones, ammunition and airplanes to support the militia leader’s campaigns, according to multiple U.N. reports. Mr. Prince visited Abu Dhabi in recent weeks, according to the diplomat.

The U.N. report, the diplomat said, also accuses Mr. Prince of violating a U.N. Security Council resolution by failing to provide information about the alleged violations of the arms embargo when contacted by the Panel of Experts.

In addition to naming Mr. Prince in the report, the U.N. Panel of Experts is also expected to separately refer Mr. Prince to the United Nations’ Sanctions Committee, which will make a decision about whether to impose an asset freeze or travel ban to be implemented by individual countries including the U.S., the diplomat said.

 

7. U.S. investigating possible ties between Roger Stone, Alex Jones and Capitol rioters

The Washington Post – by Spencer S. Hsu and Devlin Barrett - February 20, 2021

A couple of wild and crazy guys (apologies to Steve Martin for appropriating that phrase - I of course do not mean it from a humor perspective).

 

8. Solzhenitsyn & the engine of history by Robert D. Kaplan

newcriterion.com · by Robert D. Kaplan

A useful weekend read.  We can learn so much from Solzhenitsyn.

I do collect Solzhenitsyn quotes (such as this one).  "Even the most rational approach to ethics is defenseless if there isn't the will to do what is right" - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Conclusion: In his first book, published in 1957, titled A World Restored, the young Henry Kissinger wrote that “the most fundamental problem of politics . . . is not the control of wickedness but the limitation of righteousness.” It is self-righteousness that lies at the heart of most tyrannies: the belief that only you and your side are moral and on the right side of history, making your opponents immoral, and therefore not only wrong but illegitimate. This was what the vast anarchy across the whole of Russia, every detail captured in quasi-fictionalized manner by Solzhenitsyn, finally wrought. Solzhenitsyn was a conservative because he believed in tradition. And because he believed in tradition he also believed in moderation, all of which made him a great humanist. His Red Wheel warns still of the future, with all its terrifying technological and ideological innovations.

 

9. Biden Wants to Restore NATO. Macron Is Looking to Move On.

defenseone.com · by Kevin Baron

I suppose history does rhyme.  It is not like France has not moved on from NATO in the past though obviously the conditions and Macron's intent are different now.

 

10. Biden Defends Democracy at Summits With European Allies, Seeing China as ‘Stiff’ Competition

WSJ · by William Mauldin

Excerpt: "Mr. Biden said he doesn’t want conflict between blocs of nations. “Competition must not lock out cooperation on issues that affect us all,” Mr. Biden said. “For example, we must cooperate if we’re going to defeat Covid-19 everywhere.”

 

11. Analysis | Biden sends an international message about democracy that resonates here at home

The Washington Post – by Philip Bump - February 19, 2021

Analysis from a political party perspective in Europe and the US. 

 

12. Trans-Atlantic 'Quad' prepares for new Eastern center of gravity

asia.nikkei.com – by Ken Moriyasu

What is the word for when two "Quads" are added together?

 

13. A strong offense can decrease cyberattacks on critical infrastructure

The Hill · by Michael Hayden, Tom Ridge, John Shkor and Mark Montgomery · February 19, 2021

Here here.

Excerpts:

President Biden intends to impose consequences on the actors behind the most recent cyberattacks on U.S. businesses and agencies. And the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act establishes a much-needed, Senate-confirmed national cyber director within the Executive Office of the President to direct and coordinate a “whole of government” response.

The departments of State, Homeland Security, Defense, Justice, Treasury, Commerce and the United States Trade Representative and Director of National Intelligence now should be tasked with developing a full array of sanctions and consequences that can be levied against malicious cyber actors.

Improving our ability to repel cyberattacks is important, but our overall cyber strategy must also include a strong offensive capability and the will to use it whenever and wherever necessary.

 

14. Will the Quad Evolve and Embrace Taiwan?

The National Interest · by Jagannath Panda · February 17, 2021

Yes, this is probably one of if not the most, complex issues for the Quad.

 

15. U.S. alleges wider Oath Keepers conspiracy, adds more defendants in Jan. 6 Capitol riot

The Washington Post – by Spencer S. Hsu and Rachel Weiner - February 19, 2021

Again, this will play right into the narratives of extremists if this is not handled correctly.

 

16. ‘This Crap Means More to Him Than My Life’: When QAnon Invades American Homes

Politico – by Anastasia Carrier

Perhaps the most dangerous cult and ideology in American politics today??? I still have hard time believing that people can really believe in the QAnon conspiracy theories. 

 

17. How to Wage a Counterinsurgency Against Organizational Culture

fromthegreennotebook.com · by Benjamin Ordiway · February 20, 2021

Excerpts:  

In summary, behaviors regress to the organization’s cultural mean. Leaders would do well to invest their time to move the mean toward the 20% of moral multipliers. Reinvesting your time in these true, quiet professionals will make your organization’s portfolio more resilient by raising the overall culture’s commitment to the organization’s values. You will foster a culture of defensive stocks, which will isolate the organizational insurgents, possibly preventing them from becoming toxic assets.

Moreover, viewing these exemplars as organizational change agents and messaging their example may, like preventative maintenance, deter organizational insurgents. By swaying the intermediate population toward a culture of commitment, leaders increase the certainty that bad actors will be held accountable for their misdeeds. After all, organizational insurgents likely avoid interacting with moral multipliers. To shape organizational culture is to wage a counterinsurgency against the 10% by investing time in the 70% by, with, and through the 20%.

Parting thought: crises are opportunities. They reveal the underlying assumptions at work in organizations. They signal to leaders where they’ve been spending too much time and where they haven’t invested enough. When you are not facing a crisis, do you proactively invest your time in your moral multipliers to ultimately recruit the influenceable intermediate and bring about a positive return? Or, do you spend your time on the organizational insurgents, perpetually reacting to the symptoms of an organizational culture that you, in part, fostered by neglecting your best stocks?

 

18. When Government Intelligence Agencies Encounter Nonstate Competitors

This is an important excerpt and show the value of nongovernmental actors (and it is also why I am such a strong believer in open source information and obtaining such information from not only the press but all from non-governmental actors):

• Creativity. Nongovernmental actors unbound by bureaucracy can be more innovative in ways that traditional spy agencies at times struggle with. The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, a U.S. nonprofit, has combined its unique accesses to North Korean escapees with publicly available satellite imagery and other open-source information to publish visually evocative details about North Korea’s vast detention system. Some of these revelations have never before been disclosed publicly and reportedly informed U.S. officials’ understanding of — and policy toward — the notoriously opaque country.

When Government Intelligence Agencies Encounter Nonstate Competitors

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/when-government-intelligence-agencies-encounter-nonstate-competitors - by Sam Lichtenstein

 

19. Biden to order review of U.S. reliance on overseas supply chains for semiconductors, rare earths

CNBC · by Thomas Franck, Kayla Tausche · February 18, 2021

As we must.

 

20. The US Puts Its Greatest Vulnerability on Display

defenseone.com · by Kori Schake

From one of our most serious national security thinkers.

A brilliant conclusion but is it too naive to think we can change in this way?  We could not in 1861.

“Ultimately, though, Americans will have to choose to do these things, which means we will have to repair the culture that underlies and shapes our politics. As Lincoln concluded in 1838, “Passion has helped us; but can do so no more. It will in future be our enemy.” What the country needed instead, he argued, was “general intelligence, sound morality, and in particular, a reverence for the Constitution and laws.” How to get there is the problem. But Americans have to expect a lot more than the status quo from our government and ourselves.”

The fundamental questions we should be asking ourselves as Americans: Is our democracy worth protecting and sustaining? Are we willing to commit to its defense and put the greater good ahead of bankrupt extreme political agendas?

 

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."

- William James

 

“Simply put, the [Kim family] regime has become a criminal syndicate with a flag, which harnesses its state resources to steal hundreds of millions of dollars.”

- John C. Demers, the head of the Justice Department’s National Security Division, on North Korea

 

"The essential thing is action. Action has three stages: the decision born of thought, the order or preparation for execution, and the execution itself. All three stages are governed by the will. The will is rooted in character, and for the man of action character is of more critical importance than intellect. Intellect without will is worthless, will without intellect is dangerous."

- Hans von Seeckt

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1.  Legal Opinion: Whether the Republic of Korea (ROK)’s Amendment to the Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act (“Anti-Leaflet Law”) violates ROK domestic or international legal obligations

2. Int'l human rights group voices concerns over Seoul's ban on sending of anti-N.K. leaflets

3. FDD | North Korean Hackers Could Ramp Up Cyberattacks on COVID-19 Targets in Near Future

4. 

5. N.K. paper stresses 'economic principles' and 'scientific analysis' in economic policy

6. Joint efforts of S. Korea, Japan critical to denuclearization of N. Korea: State Dept.

7. N. Korea appoints former trade minister as ambassador to China

8. Gov’t plans to establish offices in N. Korea for inter-Korean exchanges

9. Japanese maps define Dokdo as Korean territory

10. North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Working Through Winter

11.. The U.S. Has Released the Most Comprehensive Catalog of North Korean Cybercrimes Ever Made Public

12. Report: North Korean who crossed DMZ likely not a civilian

13. 'Sincere apology' from Japan required on 'comfort women,' Moon says

14. North Korea: Sitting on $3 Trillion in Natural Resources?

15. Is South Korea on Verge of a Demographics Crisis?

 

1. Legal Opinion: Whether the Republic of Korea (ROK)’s Amendment to the Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act (“Anti-Leaflet Law”) violates ROK domestic or international legal obligations

hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea

Thank you to professional human rights attorneys, Bro Bono and Amanda Mortwedt Oh, for this important legal analysis as summarized here:

Summary:

South Korea’s Amendment to the Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act (the “Amendment”) violates ROK domestic and international legal obligations, namely the Constitution of the Republic of Korea and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). The Amendment to the law is flawed in its statutory construction, poses jurisdictional considerations, infringes on fundamental rights, is excessively punitive, and has implications on existing inter-Korean agreements. The Amendment also infringes on international human rights, including the freedoms of expression, thought, conscience and religion, and assembly and association. Ultimately, the Amendment unnecessarily targets North Korean escapee groups working to send information, goods, and remittances to their fellow people and families in the North. If entered into force on March 30, 2021, this Amendment will also create second-order effects on the already vulnerable and oppressed North Korean people under the totalitarian rule of Kim Jong-un.

 

2. Int'l human rights group voices concerns over Seoul's ban on sending of anti-N.K. leaflets

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 20, 2021

Here is the link to the Human Rights Watch letter: https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/02/18/human-rights-watch-submission-ministry-unification

I think the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) analysis is more comprehensive (truth in advertising, I am a member of the HRNK board of directors so I am biased) but there is strength in numbers as all the human rights organizations as well as like-minded democracies need to point out to their fellow democracy the error they have made in passing the anti-leaflet amendment." Here is the link to the HRNK analysis: https://www.hrnkinsider.org/2021/02/legal-opinion-whether-republic-of-korea.html

As an aside it is interesting how Human RIghts Watch describes South Korea:

The Republic of Korea (South Korea) is a democracy that generally respects most civil, political, and socio-economic liberties, although significant human rights concerns remain. Discrimination against women is pervasive, as is discrimination against lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people, racial and ethnic minorities, and people with disabilities. The government has also maintained or imposed several excessive restrictions on freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly. In 2020, South Korea implemented important public health measures to protect against the spread of Covid-19, but aspects of its response raised serious privacy rights concerns. 

https://www.hrw.org/asia/south-korea#

 

3.  FDD | North Korean Hackers Could Ramp Up Cyberattacks on COVID-19 Targets in Near Future

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · February 19, 2021

From my colleague Mathew Ha.

 

4. FDD | DOJ Charges Reveal North Korean Cybercrime and Money Laundering Schemes

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · February 19, 2021

A useful explanation of the recent DOJ indictment from my colleague Mathew Ha.

 

5. N.K. paper stresses 'economic principles' and 'scientific analysis' in economic policy

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 20, 2021

Except in north Korea science is based on the juche ideology. Juche ideology takes precedence over science or we might say in north Korea it is juche based science.

 

6. Joint efforts of S. Korea, Japan critical to denuclearization of N. Korea: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 20, 2021

We cannot emphasize this enough. There will be NO success for any of the three nations in Northeast Asia without sufficient trilateral cooperation.

 

7. N. Korea appoints former trade minister as ambassador to China

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 19, 2021

It goes without saying how important China is in every area but especially trade and economic activity. Of course, the regime is going to have to lift its extreme restrictions on trade with China imposed due to COVID and perhaps this appointment is an indication that it will do so in the near future. Personnel is policy.

 

8. Gov’t plans to establish offices in N. Korea for inter-Korean exchanges

donga.com

Of course, if north Korea approves this it will place these offices on its target list for blackmail diplomacy.

 

9.  Japanese maps define Dokdo as Korean territory

The Korea Times · February 19, 2021

Ahhh... Just another point of Japan-Korea friction. As an aside there are many maps in the US Library of Congress that define Dokdo as Korean territory. 

 

10. North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Working Through Winter

38north.org · by Peter Makowsky · February 19, 2021

What if?? What if there had been an agreement to dismantle Yongbyon (for the nth time) at Hanoi? What we would be seeing and writing about now? My guess - how the regime cheated and we would be seeing much the same as we are seeing now.

 

11. The U.S. Has Released the Most Comprehensive Catalog of North Korean Cybercrimes Ever Made Public

Slate · by Josephine Wolff · February 19, 2021

The indictment can be accessed here: https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1367701/download

 

12. Report: North Korean who crossed DMZ likely not a civilian

upi.com – by Elizabeth Shim

Well trained with a will to survive? Was this an infiltration attempt or an escape?

 

13. 'Sincere apology' from Japan required on 'comfort women,' Moon says

upi.com – by Elizabeth Shim

As some Koreans have told me it is not a sincere apology that is necessary, it is the admission of crimes and a public acceptance of responsibility for those crimes.

 

14.  North Korea: Sitting on $3 Trillion in Natural Resources?

19fortyfive.com · by Ethen Kim Lieser · February 19, 2021

This is not new (though the $3 trillion headline is an attention getter). In 1989 the UN Tumen River Area Development program estimated some of the largest untapped mineral deposits in the world are in the tri border area of northeast north Korea. I wrote about it here in 1996:

“The Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the U.S. Military” 

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a314274.pdf 

This is also why the Chinese have been negotiating 50 and 100 year leases of mineral rights in north Korea. Some day they will have access to and potentially control these deposits.

 

15.  Is South Korea on Verge of a Demographics Crisis?

The National Interest · by Ethen Kim Lieser · February 19, 2021

Dr. Bruce Bennett has done some important research and analysis on this issue and its implications for the ROK military and security of the ROK.

It may seem like a reach but this is one of the conditions that should drive Korean recognition of the importance of the UN Command as a force provider to the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. A resumption of hostilities on the Korean peninsula will be manpower intensive and South Korea's defense and military success may be dependent on the support of an international coalition that will bring much needed manpower.

 

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."

- William James

 

“Simply put, the [Kim family] regime has become a criminal syndicate with a flag, which harnesses its state resources to steal hundreds of millions of dollars.”

- John C. Demers, the head of the Justice Department’s National Security Division, on North Korea

 

"The essential thing is action. Action has three stages: the decision born of thought, the order or preparation for execution, and the execution itself. All three stages are governed by the will. The will is rooted in character, and for the man of action character is of more critical importance than intellect. Intellect without will is worthless, will without intellect is dangerous."

- Hans von Seeckt

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1.  Analysis | With impeachment over, 9/11 probe leaders lend weight to calls for an independent commission to investigate Capitol attack

2. No, covering Trump was not like landing at Omaha Beach

3. Bitcoin’s rise reflects America’s decline

4. Biden has no good options on Afghanistan with deadline for troop withdrawal looming

5. Short-Term Action Items for Lloyd Austin’s Pentagon

6. Rebuilding the State Department from the Ground Up

7. The Taliban Close In on Afghan Cities, Pushing the Country to the Brink

8. COVID conspiracy shows vast reach of Chinese disinformation

9. The agency founded because of 9/11 shifts to face the threat of domestic terrorism

10. Microsoft President Says Cyberattack Blamed On Russian Hackers Was 'Most Sophisticated' Ever

11. Forget Self-Driving Cars—the Pentagon Wants Autonomous Ships, Choppers and Jets

12. 'It's Going To Be Hard': A New West Point Leader On Confronting Extremism In Military

13. Collaboration or Chaos: Two Futures for Artificial Intelligence and US National Security

14. Iconic Connecticut gun maker Colt sold to Czech company

15. What was the actual impact of Russian information operations on US elections?

16. A New Conservatism: Freeing the Right From Free-Market Orthodoxy

17. US Defense Department to Create Big Picture China Task Force

18. Chinese professor: There were no ancient western civilizations, just modern fakes made to demean China

19. 'They're unrecognizable': One woman reflects on losing her parents to QAnon

20. QAnon was enabled in part by former military and intelligence professionals "gone wild." 

 

1.  Analysis | With impeachment over, 9/11 probe leaders lend weight to calls for an independent commission to investigate Capitol attack

The Washington Post · February 13, 2021

After watching the impeachment trial It is clear to me that we need a thorough investigation of January 6th.  Obviously, it was not as lethal as 9-11 but the attack on our democracy and our nation was much more dangerous and damaging (though our recovery from this can and will make our federal democratic republic stronger). As Kean and Hamilton note the American people need to know the truth and the details about what happened January 6th and why. There needs to be an objective telling of the story.

 

2. No, covering Trump was not like landing at Omaha Beach

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · February 14, 2021

A fascinating editorial by my friend Jeff Schogol. He pulls no punches on his fellow journalists.

Excerpts:

Being deployed to war zones involves millions of miseries that most civilians will never understand, including being absent during family emergencies; constantly being exposed to toxic substances that can cause crippling diseases; and sharing latrines with men who have simply forgotten their initial potty training. (Bro: Your aim wasn’t just off; it missed the target by miles.)

So, with all due respect to Mr. Nazaryan: If you really want to experience the thrill of taking an enemy beach, it’s not too late to join the Marines. They will give you all the crayons you could possibly eat.

 

3. Bitcoin’s rise reflects America’s decline

Financial Times · by Rana Foroohar · February 14, 2021

Excerpts:

Will cryptocurrency become the new gold — a hedge against a changing world? Will the Big Tech consensus prove more powerful than either the Washington consensus or the Beijing consensus? Perhaps. But it’s also possible that sovereign states will move to regulate this existential threat. In the US, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has already raised the issue of future cryptocurrency regulation.

None of this makes me want to buy bitcoin. But I also don’t see it as a normal bubble. It was unclear at the beginning of the 20th century which of the hundreds of automakers would win the race to replace the horse and buggy. Now, who knows whether bitcoin, ethereum, or diem, or some yet-to-be-invented digital currency will win out long term. For now, the bitcoin boom may best be viewed as a canary in the coal mine.

 

4.  Biden has no good options on Afghanistan with deadline for troop withdrawal looming

CNN · by Oren Liebermann, Zachary Cohen and Kylie Atwood

Excerpts:

An agreement between the Taliban and the US, signed by the Trump administration, committed the US to withdraw the final 2,500 troops by May, down from 13,000 one year ago. The Biden administration is looking for room to maneuver within the language of the agreement, but as the Taliban continues to carry out violent attacks and targeted killings, the US is left with few -- if any -- good options. One US official familiar with the internal discussions went so far as to call Biden's choices a "s*** sandwich."

...

Instead, the White House has received dozens of well-articulated and informed opinions that all have merit but do not offer a clear path forward that accomplishes all the administration's policy objectives, the official added.

"Most all of the policy options available are not optimal, shall we say," said Bradley Bowman, senior director for the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

 

5. Short-Term Action Items for Lloyd Austin’s Pentagon

warontherocks.com · by Christopher Dougherty · February 15, 2021

The short list:

Dealing with the Elephants in the Room (COVID and extremism, et al.)

Budget, Budget, Budget

Issue a “Skinny” National Defense Strategy Update and Guidance Documents

Reinvigorate Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy

Reach Out to the American People

I expect Colin Kahl will "reinvigorate" USD(P). I am particularly interested in the "skinny" NDS. I think the NDS and its irregular warfare annex are good and important documents and the baby should not be thrown out with the bathwater. While the National Security Strategy has been removed from the White House web site, the NDS remains on the Pentagon web site and still in effect.

 

6. Rebuilding the State Department from the Ground Up

The National Interest · by Robert D. Kaplan · February 14, 2021

Excerpt:

Having studied the foreign service for several years in the course of writing a biography of a State Department humanitarian, I can attest that what makes a good foreign service officer is sometimes not that much different from what makes a good newspaper correspondent: a willingness to escape from the embassy and explore beyond the capital city; to explore alone so as not to be influenced by groupthink; to listen for hours to people in the field without asking leading questions; to employ anxious foresight, that is to know the worst about a place so as to warn policymakers about avoidable bad outcomes; and most of all to avoid letting the perfect be the enemy of the good since policymaking is often a world of tough choices. In other words, it takes a highly unusual individual to become a successful foreign service officer. And that is the way it always should be. If we compromise on innate talent, the quality of the foreign service will suffer, no matter how much money is thrown at it.

 

7. The Taliban Close In on Afghan Cities, Pushing the Country to the Brink

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Taimoor Shah · February 15, 2021

The dilemma:

The Taliban’s brazen offensive has put the Biden administration into a dangerous political bind. Under the deal struck by President Donald J. Trump with the Taliban last year, all foreign troops — including the remaining 2,500 American service members who support Afghanistan’s beleaguered army and security forces — are scheduled to withdraw by May 1, leaving the country in an especially precarious state.

If the Biden administration honors the withdrawal date, officials and analysts fear the Taliban could overwhelm what’s left of the Afghan security forces and take control of major cities like Kandahar in a push for a complete military victory or a broad surrender by the Afghan government in the ongoing peace negotiations.

But if the United States delays its withdrawal deadline, as a congressionally appointed panel recommended on Feb. 3, the Taliban would most likely consider the 2020 deal with the United States void, which could lead to renewed attacks on American and NATO troops, and potentially draw the United States deeper into the war to defend Afghan forces, whom the Taliban could still retaliate vigorously against.

 

8. COVID conspiracy shows vast reach of Chinese disinformation

foxnews.com · by Associated Press

Pretty bold statement:

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told AP it resolutely opposes spreading conspiracy theories. "We have not done it before and will not do it in the future," the ministry said in a statement. "False information is the common enemy of mankind, and China has always opposed the creation and spread of false information."

Again, admit nothing, deny everything, and make counter accusations. ​

 

9. The agency founded because of 9/11 shifts to face the threat of domestic terrorism

The Washington Post – by Nick Miroff - February 14, 2021

Excerpts:

For years leading up to El Paso, the Department of Homeland Security — created to prevent another 9/11 — had been under growing pressure to do more to address domestic extremism. Within seven weeks of the El Paso massacre, McAleenan released a plan for “countering terrorism and targeted violence” that amounted to a road map for the department’s pivot from foreign threats to homegrown ones. It was the first time DHS had identified the extent of the danger posed by domestic violent extremists and white supremacists.

The plan got little attention or support from the White House, and even though DHS began speaking more directly about domestic threats, the effort made little difference on Jan. 6, when the department was one of several federal agencies caught flat-footed. Since the attack on the Capitol, calls have intensified for DHS to emphatically turn its attention inward and do more to protect Americans from other Americans.

The Jan. 6 attack has left many lawmakers, and especially Democrats, insisting domestic terrorism has eclipsed the threat from foreign actors such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. DHS and its agencies are responsible for securing the country’s borders, ports, transportation and cyber systems, generally leaving the monitoring of extremist groups and terrorism investigations to the FBI. But DHS and its agencies have nearly eight times as many employees as the FBI, and calls for the department to play a more muscular role in combating domestic extremism have policymakers looking at new ways to enlist its resources.

The proposals have revived some of the civil liberties concerns that arose after the creation of the department as a large, internal security bureaucracy with a broad mandate. And the possibility of the department scrutinizing Americans has added to the unease, because providing homeland security is less controversial when the threats are foreign.

 

10.  Microsoft President Says Cyberattack Blamed On Russian Hackers Was 'Most Sophisticated' Ever

rferl.org

Excerpts:

The software giant had previously acknowledged that like U.S. government agencies and other firms, it had downloaded updates of network management software made by the company SolarWinds that the hackers had targeted. The compromised software provided hackers a backdoor into government and company networks.

Microsoft said at the time that the hacking operation was carried out by a “very sophisticated nation-state actor” and said companies and businesses affected were in several other countries, including Canada, Mexico, Belgium, Spain, the United Kingdom, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates.

 

11. Forget Self-Driving Cars—the Pentagon Wants Autonomous Ships, Choppers and Jets

WSJ · by Andy Pasztor

And, of course, more opportunities for hacking. We also should not believe that these autonomous things will reduce manpower requirements. They will still have to be maintained and they will have to be defended against hacks, and the information they provide will still have to be analyzed by humans.

My Command Sergeant Major and I once visited the USS Rentz and the command master chief gave us a tour of this modern warship which incorporated many automated functions which reduced the necessary manpower as a few sailors could monitor the screens of the computers that were running the ship. But he lamented the lack of manpower he had and while the sailors had great technical skills to manage the automated functions, they did not have enough sailors to do the basic maintenance of simply cleaning up in the engine room. No one has automated those manual tasks and the command master chief said with the reduction in manpower the sailors had to divert more time to maintenance than running the automated systems. I may be wrong as this is now more than a dozen years ago but that is what I recall.

 

12. 'It's Going To Be Hard': A New West Point Leader On Confronting Extremism In Military

NPR · by James Doubek · February 13, 2021

Yes, it will be. But it will take enlightened leadership to do so. And it is something we have to do and we have to do it right or we risk breaking the military.

 

13. Collaboration or Chaos: Two Futures for Artificial Intelligence and US National Security

mwi.usma.edu · by Bilva Chandra · February 15, 2021

Excerpt: Artificial intelligence is both a thrilling beacon of modernization for the government, and an area of promising growth for private firms. Neither can afford to silo themselves, as a lack of collaboration will hinder both US national security interests and opportunities for private-sector innovation. The labyrinthine threat environment of unyielding US adversarial interests and the need for ethical AI frameworks both require cooperation; without it, we are doomed to chaos.

 

14.  Iconic Connecticut gun maker Colt sold to Czech company

stamfordadvocate.com · by Alexander Soule · February 12, 2021

I grew up not far from here. I always remember that blue doom as we drove past it on our way to Springfield, MA to visit family.

 

15.  What was the actual impact of Russian information operations on US elections?

davetroy.medium.com · by Dave Troy · February 14, 2021

Excerpts:

But when asked, “Did Russia’s IRA operations have an effect on the 2016 election?”, Mr. Rid made an argument I’d heard him make before: “There is no particular evidence that the IRA operations had an effect on the outcome of the 2016 election. And the fact that so many people think they did is giving Russia too much credit, and only makes them more successful.”

While I agree with Mr. Rid about those specific facts (there is no particular evidence that IRA’s actions caused President Trump to win the election itself), I don’t think it’s correct to end the discussion there.

Immediately following Mr. Rid’s talk, I tuned into another discussion featuring Maria Snegovaya, Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, and co-author of a new report on Russian disinformation operations, who was asked essentially the same question: What was the impact of Russia’s operations on the 2016 election?

I found her answer (paraphrased here) to be more nuanced: “Data from our study showed that the operations left the country much more polarized, such that people were specifically more likely to strongly oppose the presidential candidate of the opposite party.”

 

16. A New Conservatism: Freeing the Right From Free-Market Orthodoxy

Foreign Affairs · February 14, 2021

Excerpt: A conservative coalition built around economic priorities such as these, plus a merely nonradical set of cultural concerns, would attract a broad range of voters. It would attract the core of the existing Republican Party, which, as Trump proved, has much less interest in libertarian platitudes than Beltway strategists assumed. It might equally appeal to a large portion of the Democratic Party that is likewise culturally conservative; many Democratic voters aspire not to escape their families and communities or rely on public benefits but rather to be productive contributors in an economy that has a place for them. Unlike the naive fantasies that presume that a centrism halfway between the parties’ existing commitments must surely be ideal, a multiethnic, working-class conservatism could deliver a durable governing majority. It would do so by rediscovering an entirely different set of commitments, one that both parties’ elites have neglected for too long.

 

17.  US Defense Department to Create Big Picture China Task Force

thediplomat.com · by Abhijnan Rej · February 13, 2021

Excerpts:

Interestingly, Ratner noted that the task force’s work will not include recommendations for bureaucratic reorganization inside the Pentagon. He also — when asked whether the United States was looking to deploy land-based intermediate range missiles in Asia – noted that the task force will not focus on specify policy questions. Instead, Ratner emphasized its essentially broad-brush approach, stating that the task force’s goals would be to “surface key challenges, raise big questions, and then identify processes and who in the department are the appropriate folks to get after them.”

On February 10, Austin had briefed Biden about the task force during the president’s visit to the Pentagon for the first time since assuming office. Announcing the task force following the briefing, Biden noted that United States’ approach towards China “will require a whole of government efforts, bipartisan cooperation in Congress and strong alliances and partners.” In a February 7 interview with CBS, Biden described the China-U.S. relationship as one of “extreme competition,” albeit one where conflict need not be inevitable.

 

18. Chinese professor: There were no ancient western civilizations, just modern fakes made to demean China

taiwanenglishnews.com · by Phillip Charlier · February 10, 2021

Well, now I know something I really did not know. This is some very enlightening information (note my sarcasm).

Excerpt:  What all these books have in common is that world history as we know it is merely a Western fabrication. There were no ancient civilizations outside of China. Civilization is a Chinese characteristic, and others only became civilized after coming into contact with China. Therefore, today’s “world civilization” is Chinese in origin, and in nature.

 

19. 'They're unrecognizable': One woman reflects on losing her parents to QAnon

CNN · Story by Richa Naik, CNN Business Video by Richa Naik & Zach Wasser

It is just depressing to read about this QAnon cult.

 

20.  QAnon was enabled in part by former military and intelligence professionals "gone wild." 

And perhaps a conspiracy theory about a conspiracy theory. I saw this on twitter and could not resist sharing it. Quite a list of "members" and leaders of the cult. (note my sarcasm)

QAnon was enabled in part by former military and intelligence professionals "gone wild." 

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“The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism. The disorders and miseries, which result, gradually incline the minds of men to seek security and repose in the absolute power of an individual; and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction, more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of Public Liberty.”

 - George Washington, George Washington's Farewell Address

 

“Character is like a tree and reputation its shadow. The shadow is what we think it is and the tree is the real thing.”

- Abraham Lincoln

 

“There are men and women who make the world better just by being the kind of people they are. They have the gift of kindness or courage or loyalty or integrity. It really matters very little whether they are behind the wheel of a truck or running a business or bringing up a family. They teach the truth by living it.” 

- James Garfield (1831–1881)