News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. U.S. committed to keeping readiness of USFK through exercises: Pentagon official

2. 'Joint military drills are negotiable with N. Korea,' say Suh Wook

3. Moon still waiting for his phone time with Biden

4. Most Korea-U.S. defense training now computer-simulated

5. Deterring North Korea

6. OPCON transition will be conditions, not time-based: Pentagon spokesman

7. N. Korea may resort to unofficial markets amid virus-hit economy: expert

8. High-profile N. Korean defector leaves for U.S. for congressional hearing on anti-leaflet law

9. South Korea keen on providing vaccine aid to North Korea

10. N.K. organization sends congratulatory message to S. Korean counterpart

11. North Korea keeps Kim dynasty statues lit during energy shortage

12. North Korea poses old challenges to new U.S. administration

13. Indictment files reveal plan to build nuclear power plant in North

14. North Korea conducts lectures warning people of broadcasts from the US, South Korea and Japan

15. USFK personnel may be subject to another furlough in April

 

1. U.S. committed to keeping readiness of USFK through exercises: Pentagon official

Yonhap News Agency · 장재순 · January 29, 2021

A good statement. An important statement. But an insufficient statement. It is insufficient because it is a US unilateral statement. We need a combined alliance statement on this issue. We need a commitment to exercises, to training, and to readiness from both countries.

 

2. ‘Joint military drills are negotiable with N. Korea,’ say Suh Wook

Dong-A Ilbo · Sang-Ho Yun · January 29, 2021

This is extremely troubling. I am shocked and saddened to hear this from the defense minister. I am sure he is making these statements under duress because no military professional would make such statements on his own. This is going to inflict damage on the alliance.

Of course, the minister is walking back the President's statement here - the possibility of negotiating exercises with the North is "just in principle." But it really does reveal the true intention of the Moon administration.

We must not forget we have cancelled, postponed, and scaled back exercises for the past two plus years and there has been no reciprocity from the North. The only result of negotiating away our exercises will be to split the ROK/US alliance, severely degrade readiness, and put the ROK at great security risk.

 

3. Moon still waiting for his phone time with Biden

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Kang Tae-Hwa & Ser Myo-Ja · January 28, 2021

A sign???? How to interpret this. Of course, the Koreans assess this from the worst-case perspective.

But we should not forget that President Biden published only one op-ed in the foreign press before the election and that was in Yonhap News in Korea. It was a powerful statement—both the act itself and the words.

 

4. Most Korea-U.S. defense training now computer-simulated

Chosun Ilbo · January 29, 2021

This is true going back to the Ulchi Focus Lens exercises in the late 1980s and early 1990s. These exercises are designed to train the theater-level command and components in the plans for the defense of the Republic of Korea from North Korean attack. Computer-simulation is the most efficient and effective way to train high level staffs and commanders.

 

5. Deterring North Korea

War On the Rocks · Daniel Post · January 29, 2021

A review of deterrence theory and its application to North Korea.

I am a believer in deterrence, and I believe all our actions toward North Korea must rest on a foundation of deterrence. But we cannot become complacent, because we have successfully deterred a resumption of hostilities since 1953. I worry about the concept of a "more conciliatory way."

We also must not forget the wise words of Sir Lawrence Freedman: "Deterrence works.  Until it doesn't."

 

6. OPCON transition will be conditions, not time-based: Pentagon spokesman

Korea Herald · Yonhap · January 29, 2021

The spokesman left out one important point in his otherwise good statement. If we are going to have alliance based national security, we need to be making alliance arguments. What the spokesman should have added was that failure to meet the conditions will put the security of South Korea at great risk. It is in the interests of the ROK government, the Korean military, and the Korean people to complete a conditions-based OPCON transition in order to maintain the security of the ROK. He especially should have made this argument to the Korean media.

 

7. N. Korea may resort to unofficial markets amid virus-hit economy: expert

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 29, 2021

It is deja vu all over again. It was the unofficial markets that developed during and after the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996 that provided the foundation for the resilience of the Korean people living in the North.  These markets evolved into semi-official and tolerated markets over the past two decades, and they have been responsible for maintaining the suffering of the people at a somewhat tolerable level. But with COVID, the Kim family regime saw the opportunity to crack down on market activity that was causing the regime to lose some control over the population. The regime has implemented a number of draconian population and resources control measures in the name of COVID defense. In reality, these measures allow the regime to defend itself against any potential resistance from among the population. Now the people are going to have to resort to unofficial markets just like in the 1990s, which turned out to an important safety or relief valve. If the regime prevents the re-emergence of unofficial markets, it could give rise to some level of resistance. We need to observe for instability indications and warning.

 

8. High-profile N. Korean defector leaves for U.S. for congressional hearing on anti-leaflet law

Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · January 28, 2021

This is not making the ROK look good in the eyes of the international community or among fellow democratic nations. Please remember our shared values and the ideological war between the North and South.

Ideological War - a choice for all the Korean people between:

• Shared ROK/US Values
  • Freedom and individual liberty
  • Liberal democracy
  • Rule of law
  • Free market economy
  • Human rights

OR

• Kim family regime (KFR) "values"
  • Juche/Kimilsungism
  • Socialist Workers Paradise
  • Songun, Songbun, Byungjin
  • Rule BY law
  • Denial of human rights to sustain KFR power

 

9. South Korea keen on providing vaccine aid to North Korea

Korea Times · Kange Seung-woo · January 29, 2021

If any Korean in the North gets vaccinated before all Koreans in the South, the Moon administration will likely experience some backlash. But will the regime accept such vaccinations from the South?

 

10. N.K. organization sends congratulatory message to S. Korean counterpart

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 28, 2021

Just as a reminder:

“The United Front Department (UFD) overtly attempts to establish pro-North Korean groups in the ROK, such as the Korean Asia-Pacific Committee and the Ethnic Reconciliation Council. The UFD is also the primary department involved in managing inter-Korean dialogue and North Korea's policy toward the ROK… The 225th Bureau is responsible for training agents to infiltrate the ROK and establish underground political parties focused on fomenting unrest and revolution.” – Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (Office of the Secretary of Defense)

 

11. North Korea keeps Kim dynasty statues lit during energy shortage

Radio Free Asia · Jieun Kim, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · January 28, 2021

There are two major wasted expenditures of energy in the North: 1) the lighting these statues and 2) the jamming of VOA and RFA broadcasts to try to prevent the people from getting the truth about not only the outside world but what is actually happening inside North Korea.

It is the deliberate policy decision-making by Kim Jong-Un that is responsible for all the suffering of the Korean people living in the North.

 

12. North Korea poses old challenges to new U.S. administration

United States Institute of Peace · Ambassador Joseph Yun & Frank Aum · January 27, 2021

A good assessment of the emerging Korea team within the Biden administration from Ambassador Joseph Yun and Frank Aum at USIP.

 

13. Indictment files reveal plan to build nuclear power plant in North

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Ser Myo-Ja & Lee Chul-Jae · January 29, 2021

Sigh.... and the irony - the Moon administration is trying to end all nuclear power in the South.

That said, it could be a useful tool to gain access to North Korean nuclear scientists and technicians.  Widespread people to people contacts could be useful for the long term. But I do not think we are thinking that way.

And there is KEDO. How did that work out?

 

14. North Korea conducts lectures warning people of broadcasts from the US, South Korea and Japan

Daily NK · Mun Dong Hui · January 29, 2021

Another important indicator to help answer the question of who Kim Jong-Un fears more—the US or the Korean people living in the North?  (A question from the new DASS for EAP, Dr. Jung Pak)

Information is an existential threat to Kim Jong-Un. We should think about that. It is also a critical component of human rights as identified by the UN Commission of Inquiry in 2014.

We must press with information. No amount of ideological lecturing can put the knowledge genie back in the bottle. Give the Korean people knowledge and information and.... well, we  will just have to see what will happen.

 

15. USFK personnel may be subject to another furlough in April

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Kim Sang-Jui, Park Yong-Han, Shim Kyu-Seok · January 28, 2021

We still have to solve the Special Measures Agreement (cost sharing) stalemate.

 

"You make a living by what you earn; you make a life by what you give."

- Winston Churchill

"A nationalist...is not at all the same thing as a patriot. A nationalist encourages us to be our worst, and then tells us that we are the best."

- Timothy Snyder, On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century

"Knowledge by itself is not power, but it holds the potential for power if we use it a s a guide for action. Truth will always be defeated by tyranny unless the people are willing to step forward and put their lives into the battle. The future belongs, not to ideas, but to people who act on those ideas."

- G. Edward Griffin

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Chinese bots had key role in debunked ballot video shared by Eric Trump

2. Homeland security bulletin warns Americans about violence by grievance-fueled domestic extremists

3. Op-Ed: Are there pieces of Trump's foreign policy worth keeping?

4. Is America prepared for a catastrophic cyberattack?

5. The United States Smuggled A Russian-Made Pantsir Air Defense System Out Of Libya: Report

6. Navalny Poison Squad Implicated in Murders of Three Russian Activists - bellingcat

7. US Plan to Withdraw Troops from Germany Up for Reconsideration, SecDef Says

8. Amid Biden-Ordered Review of Afghanistan Troop Drawdown, Report Finds al-Qaida Gaining Strength

9. DoD to Investigate Special Operations' Compliance with War Crimes Laws

10. Army Rolls Out Army Green Uniform Wear Guidelines, Renames Combat Patch

11. Regulate Social-Media Companies

12. Homeland security bulletin warns Americans about violence by grievance-fueled domestic extremists

13. Self-styled militia members in three states began planning in November for recruits, weapons ahead of Capitol breach, U.S. alleges

14. Beijing’s Welcome Gift to Biden: More Threats and Tensions

15. A butterfly flaps its wings in Beijing and the stock market crashes

16. Biden Orders Pentagon To Include Climate Change In New Strategy & War Games

17. Why Attempts to Build a New Anti-China Alliance Will Fail

18. Biden sends messages rejecting China expansionism

19. A World Divided: The Conflict with Chinese Techno-Nationalism Isn’t Coming - It’s Already Here

20. WHO team studying COVID-19 origins in China out of quarantine

21. Study ranks New Zealand Covid-19 response best, Brazil worst, US in bottom five

22. Is the SolarWinds Cyberattack an Act of War? It Is, If the United States Says It Is.

23. This Over-the-Counter Medication Can Kill COVID, Study Says

24. Declassified U.S. intelligence bolsters Wuhan lab theory in coronavirus outbreak

 

1. Chinese bots had key role in debunked ballot video shared by Eric Trump

The Guardian · by Luke Harding · January 27, 2021

Some more food for thought.  I will bet those who attacked the capitol will not like to hear they may have been manipulated by the Chinese.

 

2. Homeland security bulletin warns Americans about violence by grievance-fueled domestic extremists

The Washington Post· by Nick Miroff · January 27, 2021

Things are getting serious.

 

3. Op-Ed: Are there pieces of Trump's foreign policy worth keeping?

Los Angeles Times· by Dennis and Juan Zarate · January 27, 2021

Yes.

Conclusion: The beginning of a new administration is often a time for reversing course, but reflexive impulses in foreign policy are seldom right. Biden will need to demonstrate his ability to lead globally and heal America’s democracy in the wake of the Jan. 6 attack and the effects of the pandemic. Still, in forming his own foreign policy agenda, Biden should consider seriously the elements of his predecessor’s approach worth keeping.

 

4. Is America prepared for a catastrophic cyberattack?

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

I do not think we will ever be prepared for a catastrophic cyber attack.  But we must develop resiliency now to be able to be best prepared for when it does happen.  And I fear it will.

And I have to say that is a very cool graphic.

The key question:

How about the possibility that Russia (prime suspect in the SolarWinds hack), China, the Islamic Republic of Iran or North Korea (all of which have carried out multiple and seriously damaging breaches in the past) might wage full-out cyberwar?

What that would mean: attacks intended to shut down financial systems, electricity, water supplies, transportation, communications - perhaps even the entire U.S. economy. Should that happen, what’s the plan?

 

5. The United States Smuggled A Russian-Made Pantsir Air Defense System Out Of Libya: Report

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · January 27, 2021

Excellent work.  But we need better OPSEC (unless there is a deliberate IO plan).

British newspaper The Times was first to report the covert mission, which it said took place in June 2020. A U.S. Air Force C-17A Globemaster III transport aircraft is said to have flown to Zuwarah International Airport, situated to the west of Tripoli, to pick up the Pantsir-S1, which it then flew to Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

 

6. Navalny Poison Squad Implicated in Murders of Three Russian Activists - bellingcat

bellingcat.com · January 27, 2021

Bellingcat makes a great contribution to open source information.  Their investigators do some very good work uncovering these threats and actions from malign actors (namely Russia)

 

7. US Plan to Withdraw Troops from Germany Up for Reconsideration, SecDef Says

military.com · by Richard Sisk · January 27, 2021

We need to ensure we have the right forces forward stationed in the right places so that we can effectively project power to protect US interests, ideally by deterring conflict by demonstrating strategic reassurance and strategic resolve.

 

8. Amid Biden-Ordered Review of Afghanistan Troop Drawdown, Report Finds al-Qaida Gaining Strength

military.com · by Richard Sisk · January 27, 2021

I do not think this was unexpected by professional intelligence analysts.

 

9. DoD to Investigate Special Operations' Compliance with War Crimes Laws

military.com · by Richard Sisk · January 27, 2021

Only special operations?  

 

10. Army Rolls Out Army Green Uniform Wear Guidelines, Renames Combat Patch

military.com · by Matthew Cox · January 27, 2021

But I am sure the troops will always call it the "combat patch."

Excerpt:

The Shoulder Sleeve Insignia Former Wartime Service will now be called the Shoulder Sleeve Insignia Military Operations in Hostile Conditions. It is authorized for soldiers who served on combat deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, but also those who served in certain countries considered hostile areas.

 

11. Regulate Social-Media Companies

defenseone.com · by Divya Ramjee and Elsa Kanias· January 27, 2021

This is going to require a lot of debate and critical thought. If the government gets involved in regulating social media companies how do we ensure protection of civil liberties?

 

12. Homeland security bulletin warns Americans about violence by grievance-fueled domestic extremists

The Washington Post·  by Nick Miroff · January 27, 2021

This seems like an unprecedented and significant warning.  Things are getting serious.

 

13.  Self-styled militia members in three states began planning in November for recruits, weapons ahead of Capitol breach, U.S. alleges

The Washington Post · by Spencer S. Hsu, Rachel Weiner and Tom Jackman · January 28, 2021

All based on the big lie and conspiracy theories.

 

14. Beijing’s Welcome Gift to Biden: More Threats and Tensions

Foreign Policy · by Robert A. Manning, Patrick M. Cronin · January 27, 2021

Excerpts:

“What can Biden do? At his confirmation hearing, Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the Trump administration’s tougher approach toward China was right, but the tactics were wrong. While there is consensus that China is a strategic competitor, the Trump administration never defined the terms of that competition. Kurt Campbell, Biden’s new Asia adviser in the White House, has written, together with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, about the need for “clear-eyed coexistence” between the two nuclear states. With Brookings China Strategy Initiative director Rush Doshi, Campbell has also called for building a durable and flexible balance of power. The Biden team undoubtedly hoped to begin a thorough policy review as they assemble the full complement of appointees to steer an Indo-Pacific strategy. But now, Beijing has given the nascent Biden team no choice but to preoccupy itself with crisis management, beginning with better risk-reduction mechanisms to minimize the danger of inadvertent escalation.The Trump administration made a grave mistake in turning Asia strategy into a bilateral U.S.-Chinese problem.

...

The new thinking of the Biden administration must narrow differences with China while expanding the toolkit. There is no daylight between Biden and his team regarding the need to work with allies and partners. Further, the team understands policy must not just counter malign activities but create a positive counterweight across all realms—economic, technological, trade, and security—with tangible benefits for the well-being of the United States as well as China’s Asian neighbors.

Whatever terms one uses to describe China’s activities—political warfare, gray-zone operations, technological supremacy, or information dominance—the United States’ best strategic approach should be based on a positive vision of the future. China is a formidable competitor, exploiting the United States’ desire and need to protect the boundaries of a fraying rules-based international order. But rather than reacting to Beijing by escalating a mindless tit-for-tat that risks a major war, Washington needs to reclaim credibility by offering a path to a new balance in Asia—in which the interests of allies and partners are addressed and the limits of Chinese power is defined.”

 

15. A butterfly flaps its wings in Beijing and the stock market crashes

asiatimes.com · by David P. Goldman · January 27, 2021

Excerpt: What happened was a literal illustration of chaos theory, namely the proverbial butterfly that flapped its wings in Beijing and caused a hurricane in the Caribbean. The Beijing butterfly in this case was the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which pushed up the benchmark 7-day repo rate to 3.1% from 2.5% on January 25, a significant tightening that was mirrored in banks’ cost of funding. Hong Kong stocks and European stock futures dropped immediately, followed by S&P futures (the subsequent drop in the S&P during the Wednesday New York trading session isn’t shown on the chart).

Please go to the link to view the chart: 

 

16. Biden Orders Pentagon To Include Climate Change In New Strategy & War Games

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

Buried lede - New NDS in 2022.

 

17.  Why Attempts to Build a New Anti-China Alliance Will Fail

Foreign Policy · by Kishore Mahbubani · January 27, 2021

That is one of the biggest differences about a European security architecture (e.g., NATO) and one in Asia.  In Asia there needs to be an economic security relationship and not just a military security relationship and the economic relationship has to take priority over the military.

Conclusion: This is why the Quad’s naval exercises in the Indian Ocean will not move the needle of Asian history. Over time, the different economic interests and historical vulnerabilities of the four countries will make the rationale for the Quad less and less tenable. Here’s one leading indicator: No other Asian country—not even the staunchest U.S. ally, South Korea—is rushing to join the Quad. The future of Asia will be written in four letters, RCEP, and not the four letters in Quad.

 

18. Biden sends messages rejecting China expansionism

asiatimes.com · by Sylvie Lanteaume · January 28, 2021

A similar China-directed refrain echoed through Austin’s call with Australian defense minister Linda Reynolds on Tuesday.

Austin “emphasized the importance of maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific, founded on existing international law and norms in a region free of malign behavior,” Kirby said.

To underscore the unchanged US stance in Asia, on January 24, the fourth day of the new Biden administration, the US aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt embarked on a so-called “freedom of navigation” mission in the South China Sea, sailing in or close to waters that China claims to underscore Washington’s rejection of those claims.

In addition, even as his initial focus for the US Defense Department is battling the coronavirus, Austin is expected to make Asia his first destination on an international trip.

 

19.  A World Divided: The Conflict with Chinese Techno-Nationalism Isn’t Coming - It’s Already Here

warontherocks.com · by James Mulvenon · January 28, 2021

Conclusion: If implemented, these measures will help the new Biden administration adapt to the significant changes in the trade and security environment over the last four years and ensure its ability to achieve simultaneous goals: strengthening the American economy, accelerating the domestic innovation and job growth, deepening cooperative relationships with like-minded countries, bolstering U.S. military capabilities, and protecting critical intellectual property and core technologies of the future from wholesale technology and cyber theft.

 

20.  WHO team studying COVID-19 origins in China out of quarantine

upi.com· by Daryl Coote · January 28, 2021

Now we will see how much access they will have.  Will they be able to definitively pinpoint the origin?

 

21. Study ranks New Zealand Covid-19 response best, Brazil worst, US in bottom five

France 24 · by FRANCE 24 · January 28, 2021

Are we surprised? More importantly are we ashamed of our poor performance? Do we understand why our response has been so poor?

Excerpts:

“Aside from New Zealand – which has largely kept the virus at bay with border closures and "go early, go hard" lockdowns and testing regimes – Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, Cyprus, Rwanda, Iceland, Australia, Latvia and Sri Lanka made the top 10 for their responses.”

 

22. Is the SolarWinds Cyberattack an Act of War? It Is, If the United States Says It Is.

lawfareblog.com·  by Yevgeny Vindman · January 26, 2021

Conclusion: The Biden administration will need to determine how to respond to the SolarWinds cyberattack to establish deterrence and impose costs given the magnitude of the attack. These are policy issues, but they should be informed by the legal determination that the SolarWinds cyberattack may well constitute a casus belli under international law.

 

23. This Over-the-Counter Medication Can Kill COVID, Study Says

bestlifeonline.com · by Zachary Mack · January 27, 2021

If there is anything to this why aren't we reading about this in other media or from the COVID 19 task force?

When things seem too good to be true they usually are.  Of course there is probably a conspiracy theory to explain the answer to my question above.

 

24. Declassified U.S. intelligence bolsters Wuhan lab theory in coronavirus outbreak

washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz

 

------------

 

“The media controls the mind.” 

- Jim Morrison

 

“Some people awake each morning dreading the day looking for the negatives in their lives and in others, while some awaken fresh appreciating the opportunity to contribute to life, making the world a better place and see the positives. Neither is right or wrong for we are human, we all make a conscious choice everyday as to who we shall be.” 

- Mark W Boyer

 

“Success of democracy lies within the analytical thought of a common man.” 

- M.H. Rakib

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Gov't Hires U.S. Lobbyists to Defend Controversial Leaflet Ban

2. U.S. will work with China, Russia to denuclearize N. Korea: UN envoy

3. South Korea willing to share COVID-19 vaccines with North, PM says

4. Kang, Blinken reveal differences in perspective in their first phone call

5. Civic groups demand suspension of military drills with U.S. for confidence building with N. Korea

6. Weak Allies Limit Biden’s Options In Northeast Asia

7. For Peace With North Korea, Biden Must End the US-South Korea Military Exercises

8. Biden stresses need for complete denuclearization of Korean Peninsula: White House

9. FM nominee: Boosting alliance with U.S. 'primary task' for S. Korea diplomacy

10. N.Korea, US should aim for initial nuclear freeze - S.Korean PM

11. North Korea continues to export coal and dispatch laborers overseas

12.  North Korea moves toward mass production of miniature reconnaissance drones

13. South Korea sees one of strongest recoveries among major economies

14. 'Crash Landing on You,' BTS, 'Parasite' lead 'hallyu' popularity in 2020: report

 

1.  Gov't Hires U.S. Lobbyists to Defend Controversial Leaflet Ban

english.chosun.com · January 28, 2021

This is troubling. The anti-leaflet law is indefensible by anyone who believes in civil liberties and the shared values of the ROK and US.  And it is a major strategic error on at least two levels - one it indicates the ROK unwillingness to engage in a sophisticated information and influence campaign to influence the major target audiences of the regime elite, the second tier leadership, and the population.   The second strategic error was giving into Kim Yo-jong's blackmail diplomacy that she executed for the Kim family regime. The ROK can expect to see blackmail diplomacy ratchet up in the foreseeable future.  The anit0-leaflet law "proves" to Kim Jong-un that his political warfare strategy is working. 

 

2. U.S. will work with China, Russia to denuclearize N. Korea: UN envoy

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 28, 2021

This seems like the Biden administration intends to not only continue the sanctions regime against north Korea but to improve enforcement.

"Reengaging with South Korea with Japan, as well as with China and Russia, particularly to push for their respect for a sanctions regime against North Korea, is going to be really important," Thomas-Greenfield told the hearing.

This is our recommendation from our essay with policy recommendations for the Biden administration:  

• Encourage Chinese and Russian support for denuclearization while holding them accountable for ongoing violations of UN sanctions they claim to support. The Biden administration should publicize this duplicity and blacklist entities identified as violating sanctions.

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2021/01/14/north-korea/

 

3. South Korea willing to share COVID-19 vaccines with North, PM says

upi.com· by Thomas Maresca

Excerpts:

"Vaccines are an expensive drug and if North Korea cannot afford them we are willing to help," Chung said at a policy briefing with international correspondents in downtown Seoul. "South Korea wants to cooperate with the North in many ways, including health and humanitarian issues."

South Korean health officials have announced that vaccinations are scheduled to begin in late February, and the prime minister said the government is aiming to achieve herd immunity by November at the latest, with leftover doses potentially going to North Korea.

"If we have additional vaccines that may not be used, they can be shared with other countries, including North Korea," Chung said. "We will keep this option open."

Foreign Minister Chung is accusing the US of indifference?  Who has been indifferent about north Korea?

White House press secretary Jen Psaki added on Friday that the United States has a "vital interest" in deterring North Korea's nuclear ambitions and vowed that the Biden administration would work in close consultation with South Korea and other allies.

"It is fortunate that [administration officials] are expressing interest in North Korea," Chung said. "Indifference is the biggest issue."

 

4. Kang, Blinken reveal differences in perspective in their first phone call

donga.com· January 28, 2021

Every word in every US statement is parsed by South Korean media.  The question is whether there are real differences (I do think there are but they are not outlined in this article) or are differences in statements and what the public affairs officials choose to highlight and release that are interpreted as significant differences in sustainability policy issues?

 

5. Civic groups demand suspension of military drills with U.S. for confidence building with N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · January 28, 2021

I certainly respect these civic groups and their pursuit of peace and reconciliation.  But their demands will put the security of the ROK at great risk.  I fear that their single clear-eyed focus on peace blinds them to the true nature of and the objectives of the Kim family regime.  The regime seeks to dominate the entire peninsula and will use subversion, coercion/extortion, and use of force to achieve its objectives.  The demands of these civic actions groups play into the regime's hands. The regime wants to weaken the combined readiness of the ROK.US military forces and ultimately cause a split in the alliance to drive US forces off the peninsula.

The bottom line is the failure to conduct military training and exercises will lead to the failure in the defense of Korea.

 

6. Weak Allies Limit Biden’s Options In Northeast Asia

Forbes · by Scott Snyder · January 27, 2021

Scott Snyder and Brad Glasserman discuss "weak" allies in terms of the very strained relationship between the ROK and Japan.  The US administration (as did the last one) recognizes the importance of the trilateral relationship to the security of all three countries in Northeast Asia as well as for the outcome of the challenges on the Korean peninsula and in terms of mitigating the malign influence of China.  

 

7. For Peace With North Korea, Biden Must End the US-South Korea Military Exercises

truthout.org · by Ann Wright · January 27, 2021

Like the civic action groups she is part of and supports, I fear this retired Army Colonel does not understand the nature of the objectives of the Kim family regime.

It would be the height of irresponsibility to not conduct training on the peninsula.  It will put the ROK at great risk.   And most importantly we have seen over the past two plus years that exercise concessions do not result in any reciprocity from north Korea. We must recognize north Korea's strategy and its call for the end of exercises is not about US provocations and threats to the north.  It is about weakening the ROK/US alliance and its combined military forces so that the north can achieve an advantage.

I also wonder why these peace advocates do not acknowledge the north Korean winter training cycle and the offensive operations training the north conducts.

I too want peace. But it is my belief that weakening the military is more likely to lead to conflict than sustaining military strength through proper training.

 

8. Biden stresses need for complete denuclearization of Korean Peninsula: White House

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 28, 2021

I would remind the President of this: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

 

9. FM nominee: Boosting alliance with U.S. 'primary task' for S. Korea diplomacy

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · January 28, 2021

I concur. The alliance is the priority, for both countries.  I hope the new FM will sustain the MOFA-State strategy working group as the vehicle to ensure alliance policy and strategy is aligned with common strategy assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

 

10. N.Korea, US should aim for initial nuclear freeze - S.Korean PM

nationalpost.com · by Hyonhee Shin

A freeze could be acceptable if there is full declaration of all nuclear facilities from R&D through production through storage  through fielded military organizations with nuclear weapons combined with inspection access to all sites.  And we should also understand how the regime will manipulate a freeze to achieve advantages toward its long terms strategy to dominate the peninsula and not give up its nuclear weapons, ever.

 

11.  North Korea continues to export coal and dispatch laborers overseas

dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · January 28, 2021

Again, no surprise here.  The regime must do this to gain hard currency.  And we need to enforce sanctions against the enablers who allow these activities to persist.

 

12. North Korea moves toward mass production of miniature reconnaissance drones

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · January 28, 2021

With the priority on developing military capabilities the people are destined to continue to suffer.

 

13. South Korea sees one of strongest recoveries among major economies

hindustantimes.com · January 27, 2021

Some good news for our ally.

 

14. 'Crash Landing on You,' BTS, 'Parasite' lead 'hallyu' popularity in 2020: report

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · January 28, 2021

South Korean soft power.  And "Crash Landing" is one of the best information and influence projects the ROK has ever produced.

 

------------

 

“The media controls the mind.” 

- Jim Morrison

 

“Some people awake each morning dreading the day looking for the negatives in their lives and in others, while some awaken fresh appreciating the opportunity to contribute to life, making the world a better place and see the positives. Neither is right or wrong for we are human, we all make a conscious choice everyday as to who we shall be.” 

- Mark W Boyer

 

“Success of democracy lies within the analytical thought of a common man.” 

- M.H. Rakib

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. New campaign targeting security researchers

2. Unspecified 'events' keeping Guard in DC as agencies dodge threat questions

3. Biden set his sights on China

4. Biden’s opening salvo on Beijing

5. A fake story about the secretary of defense stole my real byline

6. Biden, Congress should defend terrorism sanctions imposed on Iran

7. Trump got a space force. Biden should get a cyber force.

8. China’s leader attacks his greatest threat

9. Dissidents first: a foreign policy doctrine for the Biden administration

10. China gets a message that Taiwan is a bipartisan U.S. issue

11.  The U.S. military's real foe: the tyranny of distance

12. To defeat enemy drone swarms, troops may have to take a back seat to machines, general says

13. Taking stock of America’s pacing competitor: China at the start of 2021

14. Ike was wrong: the military-industrial-congressional complex turns 60

15. 'Secret force' comprising Tibetans gets award for operation against China in Ladakh

16. Trump-purged editors back at VOA, Radio Free Asia

17. Army general officer assignments

18. A lower bar for the cyber czar

19. It’s time to move the Army ladder

20. '2034: a novel of the next world war,' an exclusive excerpt

21. Strategic Latency Unleashed

 

1. New campaign targeting security researchers

Threat Analysis Group · Adam Weidemann · January 25, 2021

 

2. Unspecified ‘events’ keeping Guard in DC as agencies dodge threat questions

Washington Examiner · Abraham Mahshie · January 25, 2021

I think the potential threat list is pretty obvious. We can all see the indicators on social media. At some point, I worry we could see a convergence of those anarchists who are "demonstrating" in Portland and the Pacfic Northwest and those who attacked the Capitol on January 6. Of course, the likely time for this would be the Senate impeachment trial when the verdict is announced.

 

3. Biden set his sights on China

Axios · Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian · January 26, 2021

 

4. Biden’s opening salvo on Beijing

Wall Street Journal · Walter Russell Mead · January 25, 2021

 

5. A fake story about the secretary of defense stole my real byline

Defense News · Joe Gould · January 25, 2021

I saw this on social media. Commenters immediately debunked it, but there were those who thought this was a real story. I wonder if we will see more of this type of information warfare.

 

6. Biden, Congress should defend terrorism sanctions imposed on Iran

FDD · Richard Goldberg et al · January 25, 2021

From my FDD colleagues. For those who follow, Iran I recommend this.

 

7. Trump got a space force. Biden should get a cyber force.

Bloomberg · James Stavridis · January 25, 2021

I guess the Joint Chief of Staff will move from a fire team size to a platoon size (note: sarcasm).

 

8. China’s leader attacks his greatest threat

Atlantic · John Pomfret · January 25, 2021

 

9. Dissidents first: a foreign policy doctrine for the Biden administration

New York Times · Bret Stephens · January 25, 2021

Human rights is a national security issue as well as a moral imperative.

 

10. China gets a message that Taiwan is a bipartisan U.S. issue

Bloomberg · Tim Culpan · January 25, 2021

This is important. If we can approach China with bipartisan support we can successfully compete.

 

11. The U.S. military's real foe: the tyranny of distance

1945 · Patrick Hulme & Erik Gartzke · January 26, 2021

There are two laws of physics that can never be violated: time and distance.

 

12. To defeat enemy drone swarms, troops may have to take a back seat to machines, general says

Military.com · Matthew Cox · January 25, 2021

A very scary title.

 

13. Taking stock of America’s pacing competitor: China at the start of 2021

Modern War Institute · Ali Wyne · January 25, 2021

 

14. Ike was wrong: the military-industrial-congressional complex turns 60

Breaking Defense · Bill Greenwalt · January 25, 2021

 

15. ‘Secret force’ comprising Tibetans gets award for operation against China in Ladakh

India Today · Abhishek Bhalla · January 26, 2021

They have done a good job keeping this force a secret. I was certainly unaware of it.

 

16. Trump-purged editors back at VOA, Radio Free Asia

Asia Times · Shaun Tandon · January 26, 2021

VOA, RFA, et al. make important contributions to our national security through the information instrument of national power.

 

17. Army general officer assignments

US Department of Defense · January 25, 2021

Congratulations to LTG Bryan Fenton.

Some moves in the INDOPACFIC. With LTG Flynn going to USARPAC, the question is where will General LaCamera go?

 

18. A lower bar for the cyber czar

War On the Rocks · Joshua Rovner · January 26, 2021

 

19. It’s time to move the Army ladder

War On the Rocks · Eric Wesley & Robert Simpson · January 26, 2021

A very blunt conclusion to a very fascinating read. This article should be discussed on the Pentagon, in PME classes, and on the Hill.

 

20. '2034: A Novel of the Next World War,' an exclusive excerpt

Wired · January 26, 2021

Yes, this is unusual.

 

21. Strategic Latency Unleashed

Center for Global Security Research · Zachary S. Davis et al · January 2021

This 500+ page PDF should keep the special operations community reading for some time

The focus on the future and technology and concepts.

 

“The essence of immorality is the tendency to make an exception of myself.”

- Jane Addams

“For some of us, politics means fighting for our right to exist”

- Scott Westerfeld, Shatter City

“All that makes existence valuable to anyone depends on the enforcement of restraints upon the actions of other people.”

 - John Stuart Mill, On Liberty

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Another North Korean diplomat defects to South Korea

2. Kim’s diplomatic warriors defecting one by one

3. Google: North Korean hackers have targeted security researchers via social media

4. What kind of North Korea will Biden face?

5. Unification minister stresses flexibility on sanctions against N. Korea

6. North Korea’s long shadow on South Korea’s democracy

7. Biden gov't 'doubtful' about North's denuclearization: former White House adviser

8. What the Biden administration's first call with South Korea's defense secretary says about the countries' relationship

9. Several defection attempts and smuggling operations occurred during the party congress period

10. Commentary: how will President Biden deal with the North Korea challenge?

11. North Korea hopes to begin COVID-19 inoculations by the end of February at the earliest

12. N.K. paper calls for drawing up 'realistic' economic plans

13. Military to improve security system along eastern border after defection case

14. South Korea completes deployment of K-14 sniper rifle

15. North Korea: why VP Kamala Harris should meet with Kim Yo-Jong

16. S. Korea is likely to overtake Italy in national income

17. Why Koreans pointed out two 'Joes' at inauguration

 

1. Another North Korean diplomat defects to South Korea

Wall Street Journal · Andrew Jeong · January 25, 2021

My escapee friends (to include those who have worked at Department 39) tell me there are many who would defect/escape if given the opportunity. I hope South Korea and the US are conducting covert operations to help them do so. We need to take down the Department 39 global illicit network. and one of the lines of effort should be to either help Korean members escape or to turn them.

 

2. Kim’s diplomatic warriors defecting one by one

Asia Times · Andrew Salmon · January 25, 2021

Of course, there is a lot of speculation as to motive and what drives Koreans from the North to escape.  But sometimes it could be as simple as this: failing to meet the demands from the regime to produce hard currency for the regime.

 

3. Google: North Korean hackers have targeted security researchers via social media

ZDNet · Catalin Cimpanu · January 25, 2021

At least North Korea thinks national security researchers are important! :-)

 

4. What kind of North Korea will Biden face?

Council on Foreign Relations · Scott A. Snyder · January 25, 2021

NK aims:

• Continued nuclear weapons (and missile) development
• Concessions for talks (blackmail diplomacy and political warfare)
• Arm control talks (SALT/START-like), ensuring the regime maintains its nuclear weapons and is recognized as a nuclear power.

Bottom line: North Korea will not negotiate in good faith to achieve denuclearization of the North.

 

5. Unification minister stresses flexibility on sanctions against N. Korea

Dong-A Ilbo · Oh-Hyuk Kwon · January 26, 2021

Minister Lee is going to be responsible for the difficulties in the ROK/US alliance. The Moon administration should rein him in, but I fear he is really providing the administration’s position on North Korean issues, so we have to listen to him to know the administration's true intent.

“Flexibility on sanctions" really means providing concessions to North Korea in return for only promises and hope. This course will confirm the success of the regime's blackmail diplomacy line of effort of its political warfare strategy. And, while the Moon administration doubles down on its "peace at any cost" policy, the Kim family regime will likely double down on its blackmail diplomacy.

 

6. North Korea’s long shadow on South Korea’s democracy

Brookings · Jung H. Pak · January 22, 2021

Important analysis of South Korean domestic politics. A key critique of South Korea from Dr. Jung Pak.

 

7. Biden gov't 'doubtful' about North's denuclearization: former White House adviser

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Park Hyun-Young & Sarah Kim · January 26, 2021

I concur with Evan Medeiros. As I have written, it is critical that the ROK and US sufficiently align their strategic assumptions about the nature and the objectives of the Kim family regime. However, I worry that it is not a "very, very, very solvable problem."

 

8. What the Biden administration's first call with South Korea's defense secretary says about the countries' relationship

Week · January 25, 2021

Duyeon Kim provides some important comments on how the ROK government and media interpret the readout of the call between the SECDEF and MINDEF. Understanding these differences may be helpful to John Kirby, the pentagon spokesperson.

 

9. Several defection attempts and smuggling operations occurred during the party congress period

Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · January 26, 2021

Shooting to kill is authorized and praised by the regime.

Buried lede: note the amount of ammunition soldiers and guards are authorized to carry.

 

10. Commentary: how will President Biden deal with the North Korea challenge?

Channel News Asia · Naoko Aoki · January 26, 2021

This sums up the assumed direction of Biden administration policy.

 

11. North Korea hopes to begin COVID-19 inoculations by the end of February at the earliest

Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · January 26, 2021

 

12. N.K. paper calls for drawing up ‘realistic’ economic plans

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 26, 2021

A realistic economic policy would be one based on sound economic principles to include free markets, not one based on the Juche ideology.

 

13. Military to improve security system along eastern border after defection case

Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · January 26, 2021

Technology and surveillance systems are great, but the key to security is boots on the ground and aggressive patrolling by soldiers, day and night, to prevent infiltration.

 

14. South Korea completes deployment of K-14 sniper rifle

Korea Times · Yonhap · January 26, 2021

This will be useful on the DMZ. I wonder if our good friend, Chun In Bum, had a role in this. He has been the biggest advocate of improving soldier lethality in South Korea, in particular the development of improved small arms.

 

15. North Korea: Why VP Kamala Harris Should Meet With Kim Yo-Jong

National Interest · Seong-Chang Cheong · January 25, 2021

Counterpart? I do not think they are counterparts. I would not insult our Vice President by making it seem that they are somehow on equal footing.

But it would be very interesting to see them meet. It would be great to see the Vice President put her in her place. In reality, I do not think this would ever happen and, if it did, I doubt there would be any substantive results, because despite Kim Yo-jong's apparent power and trust, she is not all powerful and she will only execute what Kim allows her to execute. I am sure the President would empower the Vice President, but KJU will not empower his sister to an equal extent.

 

16. S. Korea is likely to overtake Italy in national income

Dong-A Ilbo · Teuk-Gyo Koo · January 26, 2021

 

17. Why Koreans pointed out two 'Joes' at inauguration

NBC News · Hanna Park · January 21, 2021

But I am sure Agent Cho comes from a Hwarang-do bloodline.

 

“The essence of immorality is the tendency to make an exception of myself.”

- Jane Addams

“For some of us, politics means fighting for our right to exist”

- Scott Westerfeld, Shatter City

“All that makes existence valuable to anyone depends on the enforcement of restraints upon the actions of other people.”

 - John Stuart Mill, On Liberty

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. China is joining the global push to rein in tech giants

2. China overtakes U.S. as world’s leading destination for foreign direct investment

3. For wars of the future, Pentagon looks to distant past: the B-52

4. Three steps to fight online disinformation and extremism

5. Biden must seek a new balance of equals in Asia to avert a US-China partition

6. Experts predict the future transition of COVID-19 virus to a mild common illness

7. The beautiful stability of U.S. foreign policy

8. Philippines inks $940 million deal with China to link Subic Bay and Clark Air Base by rail

9. Russian hack of US agencies exposed supply chain weaknesses

10. China's foreign policy weapons: technology, coercion, corruption

11. Biden’s Asia policy will be controversial – and that’s a good thing

12. China pushes fringe theories on pandemic origins, virus

13. China’s military ‘prepares for war’ with joint operations, cross-training

14. Tibetan monk dies after beatings, torture in Chinese prison

15. China tests Biden’s resolve on strategic flash point of Taiwan

16. Canada to join Quad joint naval exercise in Pacific Ocean

17. The case for an imperfect solution in Afghanistan

18. The climate crisis is worse than you can imagine. Here’s what happens if you try.

19. The blob is addicted to overseas interventions

20. To learn the Army’s ethic, officers should study the Army’s history

21. Special operations news update - Monday, January 25, 2021

 

1. China is joining the global push to rein in tech giants

Wall Street Journal · Sam Schechner, Liza Lin, & Chong Koh Ping  · January 24, 2021

My suspicious side wonders if they will work to rein in US and European tech giants so that their state-owned tech companies can eventually dominate. There must be a lawfare angle to this for China.

 

2. China overtakes U.S. as world’s leading destination for foreign direct investment

Wall Street Journal · Paul Hannon & Eun-Young Jeong  · January 24, 2021

 

3. For wars of the future, Pentagon looks to distant past: the B-52

Wall Street Journal · Michael R. Gordon · January 24, 2021

I guess the B-52 is the exemplar of the adage: "They don't make them like they used to."

And, yes, they do call it the BUFF (though they provide us the G-rated version of the meaning of the acronym).

 

4. Three Steps to Fight Online Disinformation and Extremism

Defense One · Peter W. Singer · January 24, 2021

Some thoughtful analysis from Peter Singer.

The three steps:

Near-term: change the message

Medium-term: sift the data

Long-term: inoculate the system

My recommendations are here: "The Cyber Underground – Resistance to Active Measures and Propaganda: “The Disruptors” - Motto: “Think For Yourself” 

I still think some of the best advice on this comes from Nadia Shadlow and HR McMaster, which they wrote in the 2017 National Security Strategy:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

As an aside—if you try to find the NSS, it is no longer accessible on the White House web site. It is 404 at this link.

If you need access to it, you can find it on the Wayback Machine, here.

 

5. Biden must seek a new balance of equals in Asia to avert a US-China partition

South China Morning Post · Anthony Rowley · January 25, 2021

I do not think China is mirror imaging. In my opinion, China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

I don't believe that is a mirror image of the US.

 

6. Experts predict the future transition of COVID-19 virus to a mild common illness

Source · Jordan Eversley · January 24, 2021

We can only hope—and sooner rather than later.

 

7. The beautiful stability of U.S. foreign policy

1945 · James Holmes · January 25, 2021

 

8. Philippines inks $940 million deal with China to link Subic Bay and Clark Air Base by rail

Stars & Stripes · Seth Robson · January 22, 2021

Even though Clark and Subic are no longer US bases, US forces have a persistence presence in these locations (particularly US naval vessels using the maintenance facilities in Subic).

 

9. Russian hack of US agencies exposed supply chain weaknesses

Associated Press · Eric Tucker · January 25, 2021

The supply chain is one of the most important strategic capabilities that must be protected. Otherwise our economic instrument of power will wither on the vine.

I hope we can learn and adjust from this.

 

10. China's foreign policy weapons: technology, coercion, corruption

Bloomberg · Hal Brands · January 25, 2021

 

11. Biden’s Asia policy will be controversial – and that’s a good thing

South China Morning Post · Van Jackson · January 25, 2021

 

12. China pushes fringe theories on pandemic origins, virus

Associated Press · Huizhong Wu · January 25, 2021

Admit nothing, deny everything, make counter accusations. And employ copious amounts of disinformation and conspiracy theories.

 

13. China’s military ‘prepares for war’ with joint operations, cross-training

South China Morning Post · Liu Zhen · January 24, 2021

I recall being part of a US group entertaining a Chinese delegation in 2010 or 2011 at the National War College. One of their "concerns" was that we had recently disbanded the Joint Forces Command. They wanted to know if the US had given up the concept of Joint Operations. They wanted to know how we could continue to focus on joint operations without a Joint Forces Command. Was this an admission that our concept of joint operations was deemed a failure. This was important to them, because they were, of course, developing their own joint operations concepts (some of which were probably modeled off or inspired by our concepts.)

 

14. Tibetan monk dies after beatings, torture in Chinese prison

Radio Free Asia · Pema Ngodup, Tenzin Dickyi, & Richard Finney · January 22, 2021

The brutality of the Chinese regime. Again, thank you to RFA for reporting this kind of important information.

 

15. China tests Biden’s resolve on strategic flash point of Taiwan

Bloomberg · Kari Soo Lindberg · January 25, 2021

The question for the Biden administration is how do we demonstrate sufficient strategic reassurance and strategic resolve in the face of Chinese actions against Taiwan?

China is providing the Biden administration with a 100-day honeymoon.

 

16. Canada to join Quad joint naval exercise in Pacific Ocean

Hindustan Times · Anirudh Bhattacharyya · January 25, 2021

Good to see. We are going to have to find a new name for the Quad and Quad Plus. We need something more inclusive and that sends the message about the organization and intention of the "organziation."

 

17. The Case for an imperfect solution in Afghanistan

Bulwark · Sasha Kassam · January 25, 2021

Can division of a country be good? Who is to decide on the division? What about self-determination? Or would this be "great power determination" of what is good for it?

 

18. The climate crisis is worse than you can imagine. Here’s what happens if you try.

Pro Publica · Elizabeth Weil · January 25, 2021

He is a true believer.

 

19. The blob is addicted to overseas interventions

American Conservative · Doug Bandow · January 25, 2021

BS. "Promiscuous interventionists" – what a new description.

Please point out to me who wants war for the sake of having a war. Advocating overseas presence to protect US national interests does not mean such advocates are seeking war. The sheathed sword can be more effective when combined with other capabilities and actions. But the sword has to be credible, in the right place, and availability for use if and when necessary

 

20. To learn the Army’s ethic, officers should study the Army’s history

War On the Rocks · Theo Lipsky · January 25, 2021

 

21.  Special Operations News Update - Monday, January 25, 2021

SOF News · January 25, 2021

 

"Divide and rule, a sound motto. Unite and lead, a better one."

- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.”

- Aristotle

"Society can and does execute its own mandates: and if it issues wrong mandates instead of right, or any mandates at all in things with which it ought not to meddle, it practises a social tyranny more formidable than many kinds of political oppression...“

-John Stuart Mill, On Liberty

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. N. Korean diplomat defects to S. Korea: source

2. N.K. propaganda outlet mentions Biden's election for first time

3. Seoul sticks to ‘peace process’ despite Washington's hint for new strategy for Pyongyang

4. ‘S. Korea-U.S. alliance is a lynchpin of Indo-Pacific,’ says Sullivan

5. S. Korea completes development of wheel-type command post for military

6. Moon's approval rating jumps to 43 pct after New Year's address: Realmeter

7. Korea to start coronavirus vaccinations next month

8. Comfort women victim says all she wants is apology

9. S. Korea aims to vaccinate 70 pct of population by Sept.

10. Minister hopes for 'wise' and 'flexible' solution to joint military drill issue

11. Minister says next few months important in creating atmosphere for resumption of talks with N. Korea

12. Former minister summoned for questioning on Wolsong-1 closure

13. ROK, US should reinforce alliance

14. Commercial banks call profit-sharing 'unfair'

15. North Korea's COVID-19 quarantine efforts appear to be full of holes

16. North Hamgyong Province official sacked after corruption comes to light

17. N. Korean troops' uniform uncannily like S. Korea's

18. North Korean envoy defects in possible sign that Kim's power base is 'drifting'

19. South Korean police clear protesters blocking access to US Army-operated THAAD missile-defense battery

20. Korea under the rising sun: Japan's brutal World War II occupation

 

1. N. Korean diplomat defects to S. Korea: source

Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · January 25, 2021

Almost a year and a half ago? Must have been a long debriefing. Just now being reported. I imagine he has a lot of information about North Korea's global illicit activities.

 

2. N.K. propaganda outlet mentions Biden’s election for first time

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 25, 2021

I am sure the regime was very confused between November 3d and January 20^th and may have had no idea who would really be the US president. But the Propaganda and Agitation department is taking a somewhat veiled swipe at the insurrection on January 6th.

 

3. Seoul sticks to ‘peace process’ despite Washington's hint for new strategy for Pyongyang

Dong-A Ilbo · January 25, 2021

Peace at any cost. This is going to be a problem for the alliance. If we do not have assumptions about the Kim family regime sufficiently aligned, we are going to have problems within the alliance. We must be able to synchronize alliance policy and strategy. Failure to do so provides an advantage to Kim Jong-Un and his political warfare strategy.

 

4. ‘S. Korea-U.S. alliance is a lynchpin of Indo-Pacific,’ says Sullivan

Dong-A Ilbo · [email protected] · January 25, 2021

Note how the vocabulary transitions between administrations. For decades the ROK/US alliance has been the linchpin and the Japan/US alliance has been the cornerstone.

Note the Korean interpretation of the calls: every word will be parsed. It is imperative that we choose our words carefully when speaking to Koreans (those from both the North and South).

 

5. S. Korea completes development of wheel-type command post for military

Yonhap News Agency · 최수향 · January 25, 2021

A question for chem bio defense. It is nice that this tactical C2 vehicle will be equipped for chemical defense. But has the ROK military invested in sufficient chemical protective equipment with at least two suits and two sets of filters for all military personnel?

 

6. Moon’s approval rating jumps to 43 pct after New Year’s address: Realmeter

Yonhap News Agency · 이치동 · January 25, 2021

The people approve a good speech.

 

7. Korea to start coronavirus vaccinations next month

Chosun Ilbo · Woo Jeong-shik & Kim Sung-hyun · January 25, 2021

What vaccine are they purchasing? It does not say in the article. Are they getting it from China or Russia or from the US and European companies? Or did they get the formula from a company and authorization to produce the vaccine indigenously? We will probably read the reports telling people from where in the coming days.

 

8. Comfort women victim says all she wants is apology

Dong-A Ilbo · [email protected] · January 25, 2021

It is not the apology she wants. It is Japan taking responsibility for its crimes against humanity.

According to some of my Korean friends, they have explained that Japan has apologized and in fact paid reparations in 1965 when Japan and South Korea normalized relations. But Japan has never admitted that what it did violated international law and was an abuse of human rights. That is what victims want.  It is not another apology and monetary compensation; it is an acceptance of responsibility for wrongdoing.

 

9. S. Korea aims to vaccinate 70 pct of population by Sept.

Yonhap News Agency · 김수연 · January 25, 2021

More information on where they are procuring vaccines. I see no mention of Chinese or Russian vaccines and the Korean Ministry of Food and Drug Safety has strict protocols for approval.

 

10. Minister hopes for 'wise' and 'flexible' solution to joint military drill issue

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 25, 2021

Dangerous. What Minister Lee really wants is to end exercises to try to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. I have written ad nauseum on this topic but giving North Korea this concession only harms the readiness of ROK/US forces. Most importantly, it will not change regime behavior, because it will be another indication of its successful political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy. The regime demands an end of exercises to weaken readiness, split the ROK/US alliance, and ultimately force the removal of US forces from the peninsula.

We have spent the last 2+ years cancelling, postponing, and scaling back exercises and there has been no reciprocity from the North. We have "tested" the Minister's "theory" and we have disproved it.  Providing this concession to the regime has not resulted in any positive outcome and continuing to provide this concession will only put the security of the ROK at greater risk.

And, of course, failure to conduct combined training exercises will delay meeting the conditions for OPCON transition.

Minister Lee should limit his remarks and focus on work to devise plans for unification of Korea. He should not be making these kinds of statements.

It is this kind of thinking by the Minister that is going to increase alliance friction. This, of course, fully supports the regime's political warfare strategy with one line of effort called "divide to conquer" - divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK.

 

11. Minister says next few months important in creating atmosphere for resumption of talks with N. Korea

Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · January 25, 2021

The "Lucy with Charlie Brown's football strategy" continues. Minister Lee must re-evaluate the assumption that the Kim family regime actually wants dialogue, cooperation, and co-existence. This flawed assumption is putting ROK security at great risk.

 

12. Former minister summoned for questioning on Wolsong-1 closure

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Kang Kwang-Soo & Sarah Kim · January 25, 2021

What needs to be questioned is the Moon administration's policy on eliminating nuclear power from Korea. Of course, the Moon administration should also be challenged on why a former minister is not allowed to freely express his expert opinion.

What should be questioned is whether someone is cooking the books on the economic analysis regarding the elimination of nuclear power in South Korea to support the administration's policy decision.

 

13. ROK, US should reinforce alliance

Korea Times · Park Jin · January 25, 2021

I will track this series. The people working on the Biden Administration's Korea policy review should track these recommendations. We might think reinforcing the alliance is a "no brainer." We need to keep in mind there will be no success on the Korean peninsula for either the US or the ROK without a rock solid ROK/US alliance.

 

14. North Hamgyong Province official sacked after corruption comes to light

Korea Times · Lee Min-hyung · January 25, 2021

Does this sound like "from each according to his ability to each according to his need?"

 

15. North Korea's COVID-19 quarantine efforts appear to be full of holes

Daily NK · Lee Chae Un · January 25, 2021

I fear the amount of suffering, corruption, oppression, and incompetence in North Korea is at a level we can hardly comprehend.

So COVID-19 treatment is ideological based: Juche (self-reliance) will heal you.

On a less snarky note, we need to be vigilant in observing for the indications and warning of internal instability. As I have written, the conditions in North Korea could rival, if not be worse than, the conditions during the Arduous March of the famine of 1994-1996.

 

16. North Hamgyong Province official sacked after corruption comes to light

Daily NK · Jong So Yong · January 25, 2021

Again, I do not think we can appreciate the level of corruption inside North Korea and the regime.

 

17. N. Korean troops' uniform uncannily like S. Korea's

Chosun Ilbo · January 25, 2021

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. But perhaps these uniforms will be useful to sow confusion and distrust in the South when they infiltrate through the remaining 17 undiscovered tunnels under the DMZ. Imagine what will happen when such troops attack US forces: all personnel wearing these uniforms will then be treated as possible infiltrators. Think about what that will do for trust within the alliance.

 

18. North Korean envoy defects in possible sign that Kim’s power base is ‘drifting’

Guardian · Reuters · January 25, 2021

Again, based on reports this may have occurred in 2019. We should not over analyze and jump to the conclusion that Kim's power base is “drifting." But it does bear watching. We need to be watchful for the instability indicators.

 

19. South Korean police clear protesters blocking access to US Army-operated THAAD missile-defense battery

Stars & Stripes · Seth Robson & Yoo Kyong Chang · January 22, 2021

This is significant. These (very professional) protestors (or, I should say, protestors led by professional agitators?) have been blocking access to the THAAD battery site for years and the ROK government has done little to allow proper logistical support for the site.

We should keep in mind the THAAD system defends not only US and ROK forces but also the South Korean population from certain missile threats from the North.

 

20. Korea under the rising sun: Japan's brutal World War II occupation

National Interest · Warfare History Network · January 24, 2021

Why the Korean people have some feelings toward Japan.

 

"Divide and rule, a sound motto. Unite and lead, a better one."

- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

“The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.”

- Aristotle

"Society can and does execute its own mandates: and if it issues wrong mandates instead of right, or any mandates at all in things with which it ought not to meddle, it practises a social tyranny more formidable than many kinds of political oppression...“

-John Stuart Mill, On Liberty

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Opinion | China threw down the gauntlet to the Biden team on day one

2. “The President Threw Us Under the Bus”: Embedding With Pentagon Leadership in Trump’s Chaotic Last Week

3.  U.S. to resume processing thousands of stalled visas for Afghans who aided Americans

4. White House Orders Assessment on Violent Extremism in U.S.

5. Lloyd Austin, Biden's Pick for Secretary of Defense, Approved by Senate

6. Day One Message to the Force From Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III

7. New Officials Sworn-In at the Department of Defense

8. Want to Stop the Next Crisis? Teaching Cyber Citizenship Must Become a National Priority

9. Pandemic Numbers Are (Finally) Tiptoeing in the Right Direction

10. The True Power of Social Media Restrictions

11. Anger at China’s Covid-19 Response Smolders in Wuhan

12. Military and Police Investigate Members Charged in Capitol Riot

13. The Covid-19 Origin Investigation

14. China is hitting back at criticism of its vaccines with a dangerous disinformation campaign

15. Counter-Terrorism and the Rule of Law

16. Sen. Tom Cotton campaigned on his "experience as an Army Ranger"

17. Order from Chaos: The Architecture of American Renewal Comes from a Mindset of Grey-Zone Superiority — a Great Power monograph

 

 

1. Opinion | China threw down the gauntlet to the Biden team on day one

The Washington Post – by Josh Rogin - January 21, 2021

Conclusion: China’s opening salvo leaves no room for doubt: Contentious competition will be the focus of the U.S.-China relationship for the next four years. Beijing’s greatest fear is that the Biden team will be better at it than Trump.

 

2. “The President Threw Us Under the Bus”: Embedding With Pentagon Leadership in Trump’s Chaotic Last Week

A long and fascinating story about former Acting SECDEF Chris Miller.  Chris was the "man in the arena."

Vanity Fair · by Adam Ciralsky – 22 January 2021

 

3. U.S. to resume processing thousands of stalled visas for Afghans who aided Americans

The Washington Post – by Savannah George - January 21, 2021

Excerpts:

“Because this is a multistep process ...  if one step is put on hold, it’s inevitable that a bulge will form at that point in the system,” Alagesan said. She and other refugee advocates believe the backlog created by the 2020 slowdown will be felt for years to come unless the Biden administration makes dramatic changes.

All Special Immigrant Visa applicants already hold some kind of security clearance that allows them to work closely with U.S. military or government personnel but are vetted again by multiple U.S. security and intelligence agencies. Applicants are also required to sit for multiple interviews and a rigorous medical examination. In all, 14 steps are required before an applicant and his or her immediate family is cleared to travel.

As security deteriorates in many parts of Afghanistan, that wait time is putting Afghan applicants at greater risk.

 

4. White House Orders Assessment on Violent Extremism in U.S.

The New York Times · January 22, 2021

Necessary but this is also a potential minefield that could contribute to increased recruitment and radicalization if there are significant missteps.  And there needs to be a strong IO plan to accompany this and protect the action.   The majority of this "fight" is going to take place in the information domain and we will need to be able to operate effectively in that domain.

 

5. Lloyd Austin, Biden's Pick for Secretary of Defense, Approved by Senate

thetablet.org · by Bill Miller · January 21, 2021

A fairly comprehensive story about our new SECDEF.

Of course I would highlight this excerpt:

As the Vietnam War raged, patriotic attitudes prevailed in Thomasville, Austin said.

He recalled his fascination with his father’s World War II experiences, a retired postal worker, who served with the U.S. Army Air Corps in the Philippines. Another influence was an uncle who joined the U.S. Army Special Forces.

“He’d come home wearing a green beret and those airborne wings,” Austin said. “He was just really squared away. He talked to me about what he was doing, the ability to serve your country, and that sort of business. Despite the fact Vietnam was a war raging at the time, it was clear to me that one of the things that I really felt that I needed to do was to find a way to serve in the military.”

 

6. Day One Message to the Force From Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III

defense.gov - Jan. 22, 2021

I am honored to have this chance to serve again and to do so alongside you and your families. My wife, Charlene, and I know all too well the sacrifices you make to keep this country safe. That safety is job one, and I promise to work as hard as you do at it.

The way I see it, my job as Secretary of Defense is to make you more effective at doing yours. That means ensuring you have the tools, technology, weapons, and training to deter and defeat our enemies. It means establishing sound policy and strategy and assigning you clear missions. It means putting a premium on cooperation with our allies and partners. And it means living up to our core values, the same ones our fellow citizens expect of us.

Right now, of course, doing my job also means helping our country get control of the pandemic, which has killed more than 400,000 Americans. You have already come to the aid of our Nation's health care professionals. You can expect that mission to continue. But we must help the Federal Government move further and faster to eradicate the devastating effects of the coronavirus. To that end, we will also do everything we can to vaccinate and care for our workforce and to look for meaningful ways to alleviate the pressure this pandemic has exerted on you and your families.

None of us succeeds at this business alone. Defending the country requires teamwork and cooperation. It requires a certain humility, a willingness to learn, and absolute respect for one another. I know you share my devotion to these qualities.

I am proud to be back on your team.

The Day One Message to the Force memo can be found here.

 

7. New Officials Sworn-In at the Department of Defense

defense.gov

For those tracking these officials.

 

8. Want to Stop the Next Crisis? Teaching Cyber Citizenship Must Become a National Priority

 

TIME · by P.W. Singer and Michael McConnell – 22 January 2021

Excerpts:

How do we better equip the next generation of American citizens, so that they won’t suffer our generations’ fate?

Here is what the research shows. When the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace recently gathered 85 proposals made by 51 different organizations exploring what needed to be done to battle against the online forces of mis- and disinformation that contaminate and poison truth, by far the most frequently recommended policy action was to raise the digital literacy of those who consume that information.

Sometime also described as “media literacy” or “cyber citizenship,” digital literacy is about having the skills to succeed in an increasingly digital world. It is not just about being able to find information online (which is all too easy), but also to be able to analyze and evaluate it for everything from its sourcing to whether someone is trying to manipulate you or not. Or, as a RAND Corporation report on the value of such skills as an essential tool to battling misinformation or “truth decay” summed, it is about “teaching participants how to think without dictating what to think.”

And yet, the vast majority of the policy, media, and civil society have focused on remedies that do not involve this priority. Instead, we keep looking for silver bullets through rewriting the legal codes that govern social media or the software code they use to run their networks. Each approach is certainly worthy of attention.

 

9. Pandemic Numbers Are (Finally) Tiptoeing in the Right Direction

defenseone.com · by The COVID Tracking Project

Do not jinx us. Hopefully this trend will continue.

 

 

10.  The True Power of Social Media Restrictions

The National Interest · by Eric Farnsworth · January 22, 2021

A "knotty issue?"  Perhaps that is an understatement.

Finally, there is the knotty issue of which individuals specifically should be prevented from access to social media, and whether such categories won’t expand to include officials from regimes that Washington simply doesn’t like or those who may be promoting policies that may not rise to the level of criminality or crimes against humanity but rather amount to little more than differences on social issues, say, or climate change and the environment, or other areas of disagreement, no matter how intense. There must therefore be strict policies and guidelines that focus on those who are credibly accused of legally-sanctionable behavior. A presidential “finding” or Congressional action may be warranted to define the specific, narrow, and very rare instances when the social media sanction should be applied in furtherance of U.S. foreign policy goals.

The True Power of Social Media Restrictions

The way in which authoritarians use social media is somewhat akin to the manner in which Adolf Hitler used the then-emerging radio technology to appeal to the German people above the heads of the traditional media of the time. Without radio, he still might have become chancellor, but at least it would have been more difficult.

 

11. Anger at China’s Covid-19 Response Smolders in Wuhan

WSJ · by Trefor Moss

Excerpts:

“The stuff the government says in the media—I don’t believe a word of it,” he said, echoing the protests that greeted Ms. Sun, the vice premier, on her visit last year. “Personally, I think the Covid situation could still be serious.”

Mr. Zhu blames officials for the deaths of his relatives. He said they lied about the epidemic in its first weeks, putting millions of people in danger to safeguard their own careers. He expressed outrage that the government had seemingly learned nothing from the 2003 outbreak of a similar novel coronavirus known as Sars that infected over 8,000 people, mostly in China, amid an attempted government coverup.

“They still operate in exactly the same way—suppressing, blocking news, covering things up,” he said.

Anger at China’s Covid-19 Response Smolders in Wuhan

 

12. Military and Police Investigate Members Charged in Capitol Riot

WSJ · by Deepa Seetharaman, Zusha Elinson and Ben Kesling

 

13. The Covid-19 Origin Investigation

WSJ · by The Editorial Board

This needs more attention and focus in the news and within the international community and international organizations.

 

14.  China is hitting back at criticism of its vaccines with a dangerous disinformation campaign

CNN · by James Griffiths

Admit nothing, deny everything, and make counter accusations.

 

15.  Counter-Terrorism and the Rule of Law

warontherocks.com · by Deborah Pearlstein · January 22, 2021

Rule of law must prevail always.

Conclusion: "Where one can find them, such bipartisan expressions of a commitment to shared principles are essential in helping to shore up slipping confidence in governmental institutions. They enable officials to rebuild some muscle memory of what it is like to govern across partisan lines and to reinforce normative beliefs in law’s ability to constrain power. And they offer some cause for hope that when the inevitable next set of rule violations arise, there remains a rule-of-law system still able, over time, to correct itself."

 

16. Sen. Tom Cotton campaigned on his "experience as an Army Ranger"

Salon · January 23, 2021

Wow. Salon.com takes on the Ranger qualified versus US Army Ranger debate. I would not expect it from this media outlet but I guess it suits their purpose to be able to criticize Senator Cotton.

But the lesson for all of us is: don't exaggerate (and it goes without saying, don't lie) about your military service.

 

17. Order from Chaos: The Architecture of American Renewal Comes from a Mindset of Grey-Zone

https://www.greatpower.us/p/autocracy-ascends-the-cracks-of-democracy - by Molly McKew

Superiority — a Great Power monograph

I missed this when it was originally published.  Now 5 parts have been published and can be accessed at the links below.  The introduction us pasted below.

A lot to parse from this.  So can we gain "grey-zone superiority."

Excerpts:

Currently, we lack the mindset, vision, organization, or mobilization capacity to overcome these deficits — and we have lacked the leadership and political will to reorient in the right direction. We don’t even really assess them apiece — as a common failure in mobilizing our resources toward the correct set of problems. We need a unified approach to enhance resilience at home and abroad — which means we need to compete in, and have operational and intelligence capabilities in, all the grey spaces where our adversaries attack us, collect on us, infiltrate us, or can count on us being absent or flat-footed. 

At home and abroad, we are challenged along the seams — and in these grey spaces, attribution can be murky, authority for action unclear, right-sized capabilities hard to determine. Right now, the way we organize and mobilize diminishes rather than unleashes formal and informal American capabilities that would be sharp in these domains. Transforming our mindset on this entire conception of strength and power is a necessary first step toward creating the resilience that will begin to alter this terrible math where the West is strong — economically, militarily — but seems to be fractious and declining while autocracies that are systemically fragile seem to be cohesive and ascending. 

 

"Insurrection by means of guerrilla bands is the true method of warfare for all nations desirous of emancipating themselves from a foreign yoke. It is invincible, indestructible."

- Giuseppe Mazzini

 

"In such a society as ours the only possible chance for change, for mobility, for political, economic, and moral flow lies in the tactics of guerrilla warfare, in the use of fictions, of language."

- Kathy Acker

 

"Be courteous to all, but intimate with few, and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence - true friendship is a plant of slow growth."

- George Washington

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. From the Jerusalem of the East to a Totalitarian Regime:  North Korea’s History Behind Christian Persecution

2. National Security Directive on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological Preparedness

3. N. Korea has consistent direction, changing tactics to develop nukes: U.S. official

4. N. Korean nuclear activities pose serious threat to peace: Psaki

5.  North Korean Defectors Want Biden to Be Forceful with Kim Jong Un

6. 'No likelihood of North Korea collapse with Kim in complete control'

7. Ex-ambassador to S. Korea Sung Kim appointed acting assistant secretary of state

8. Why Does Gov't Persist in Peddling N.Korea Fantasies?

9. Singapore deal Moon wants Biden to inherit was flawed: US experts

10. North Korea sees talks as way to advance nuclear program, says US intel official

11. North Korea Directs Companies to Eliminate ‘Import Disease’ and Pursue Self-Reliance

12. North Korean Trade Officials Scramble to Import Chinese Construction Materials

13. North Korea diplomacy is only used to advance nuclear programme, says top US official

14.  Opinion | Kim Jong Un likes to provoke new U.S. presidents. Biden’s team should be prepared.

15. Post-Party Congress Clean-up in Pyongyang

16. Kim Yo Jong Stays in the Picture

 

1. From the Jerusalem of the East to a Totalitarian Regime:  North Korea’s History Behind Christian Persecution

nkhiddengulag.org – 21 January 2021

Excerpt: There are multiple reasons as to why the Kim regime would feel particularly threatened by Christianity. Along with its historically strong connection with North Korea’s enemy, America, Christianity has had a transformational effect on Korea both politically and ideologically along with the promotion of social change on the peninsula.

 

2. National Security Directive on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological Preparedness

JANUARY 21, 2021 • STATEMENTS AND RELEASES

Excerpt:

(c)  COVID-19 Sanctions Relief.  The Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of HHS and the Administrator of USAID, shall promptly review existing United States and multilateral financial and economic sanctions to evaluate whether they are unduly hindering responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, and provide recommendations to the President, through the APNSA and the COVID-19 Response Coordinator, for any changes in approach.

I am concerned about the above paragraph and what it might mean for north Korea.  It is possible that the White House could decide to lift sanctions for humanitarian reasons based on NSD-1. I recommend against that because as I have mentioned the Korean people in the north are suffering because of the deliberate policy choices Kim Jong-un has made and continues to make.  He has sufficient resources to relieve the suffering but he has prioritized resourcing the military over the welfare of the people.  He provided evidence to this effect on October 10th at the military parade for the 75th anniversary of the Korean Workers Party and during the 8th Party Congress that took place last week.  He showed us the modern military equipment he has chosen to invest in.  I would also argue that the regime is sanctioned because of its malign activity - its nuclear and missile programs, its proliferation activities, its global illicit activities, its cyber activities, and its human rights abuses and crimes against humanity.  If we lift sanctions on any of these activities we are no longer holding the regime accountable for that malign activity. I would ask anyone who advocates lifting sanctions to state which of these activities do they wish to condone?  And of course, Kim could have sanctions lifted if would simply comply with the requirements of the sanctions.  The bottom line is it is Kim who is causing the suffering of the Korean people in the north, not the US or international sanctions.

 

3. N. Korea has consistent direction, changing tactics to develop nukes: U.S. official

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 23, 2021

Good analysis from our National Intelligence Officer for north Korea. 

At the party congress, Kim said the country has successfully developed "tactical" and submarine-launched nuclear weapons.

"What we see in the eighth party congress readout is a strategic snapshot of what we have been seen all along," said Seiler. "It really doesn't give us, you know, extremely helpful insight into what the next provocation is, or what the timing of Kim's next diplomatic outreach reach might be, but we can see in it that the fundamentals of North Korea aren't really changing."

He also noted the North's new "tactical" nuclear weapons pose a direct threat to South Korea.

 

4. N. Korean nuclear activities pose serious threat to peace: Psaki

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 23, 2021

As an aside I am really enjoying the White House press briefings.

Key point: Psaki said the administration will come up with a strategy to deal with the North, but will first review available options, including diplomacy, through consultation with U.S. allies, including South Korea.

However, I do have criticism for Ms. Psaki. Her comments about the north Korean nuclear threat are of course correct; however, by making those comments we are reinforcing the legitimacy of Kim Jong-un.  He interprets those comments as the world fears him as the leader of a  nuclear power.  Obviously, we have to talk about the nuclear threats.  But whenever we do talk about the threat, we also need to balance that with comments that Kim Jong-un is the worst human rights violator in the modern era and that he denies the human rights of the Korean people in the north solely to remain in power.  and it is his pursuit of nuclear weapons that is causing the great suffering inside north Korea.  He has chosen to prioritize nuclear weapons over the welfare of the people.  Such comments will be picked up by VOA and RFA (as they conduct their mission to explain US policy to populations in information denied areas) and broadcast into north Korea for the Korean people.  It is important that the human rights message be repeated over and over again and every time we talk about the nuclear program we need to talk about the crimes against humanity Kim Jong-un is guilty of.

 

5. North Korean Defectors Want Biden to Be Forceful with Kim Jong Un

voanews.com · by Hyun Suk Kim, Yanghee Jang – 21 January 2021

We should pay attention to escapees.

 

6. 'No likelihood of North Korea collapse with Kim in complete control'

The Korea Times · January 22, 2021

By all accounts Kim is in control. But given the current conditions that could change and we must be vigilant for the indicators of potential instability.  The actions Kim is taking to ensure he remains in power could result in blowback like there has never been such blowback before.

 

7. Ex-ambassador to S. Korea Sung Kim appointed acting assistant secretary of state

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 22, 2021

I cannot imagine too many people more qualified than Sung Kim for EAP.

Excerpt: Still, it was not clear whether Kim would be formally nominated to become the assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, which requires Senate approval, or if he is temporarily filling the post vacated by David Stilwell, who was appointed by former President Donald Trump.

 

8. Why Does Gov't Persist in Peddling N. Korea Fantasies?

english.chosun.com

Fantasies? Simply erroneous strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.  The Moon administration assumptions have been proven wrong time and again over the past four years.  When your assumptions are wrong you have to change your policy and strategy. 

 

9. Singapore deal Moon wants Biden to inherit was flawed: US experts

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · January 22, 2021

We should look at the Singapore agreement through the lens Syd Seiler describes.  The regime uses negotiations to advance its nuclear program.  Every agreement will be less than perfect of course. We must recognize the Kim is conducting his form of political warfare and we need to conduct a superior form of it.

Here is my summary of the regime's political warfare strategy that I think was reaffirmed at the 8th Party Congress:

•Political Warfare

•Subversion, coercion, extortion

•“Blackmail diplomacy” – the use of tension, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions

•Example: Kim Yo-jong threats in June – ROK anti-leaflet law in December

•Negotiate to set conditions - not to denuclearize

•Set Conditions for unification (domination to complete the revolution)

•Split ROK/US alliance

•Reduce/weaken defense of the South

•Exploit regional powers (e.g, China and Russia)

•Economics by Juche ideology – the paradox of “reform”

•Illicit activities to generate funds for regime

•Deny human rights to ensure regime survival

•Continue to exploit COVID threat to suppress dissent and crack down on 400+ markets and foreign currency use

•Priority to military and nuclear programs

•For deterrence or domination?

So when we want to tout the Singapore deal (and we should hold it up to Kim Jong-un to remind him of his commitment to denuclearize as Frank Aum recommends) we need to understand how Kim uses it to support his political warfare strategy.

 

10. North Korea sees talks as way to advance nuclear program, says US intel official

The Korea Times · January 23, 2021

The National Intelligence Officer speaks and the Korean press listens and parses every word!  

 

11. North Korea Directs Companies to Eliminate ‘Import Disease’ and Pursue Self-Reliance

rfa.org

This is why I call Kim Jong-un's policy "economics by Juche."

Some descriptions of Juche:

Han S Park. ed.  North Korea: Ideology, Politics, Economy, (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall,1996), p. 15 in which Han S. Park describes Juche as theology.  See also the Korea military news paper  “KuK Pang Ilbo” editorial on 15 MAR 99, p. 6. Chuje’s (Juche) basic concept is this:  “Man rules all things; man decides all things.”  “The Kim Il Song Chuche ideology is based on these precepts:  In ideology Chuche (autonomy); in politics, self-reliance; in economics, independence; and in National Security: self-defense.”  See also Mattes Savada, ed., North Korea: A Country Study (Washington: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 1994), p. 324., “Kim Il Sung’s application of Marxism-Leninism to North Korean culture and serves as a fundamental tenet of the national ideology. “Based on autonomy and self-reliance, chuch’e has been popularized since 1955 as an official guideline for independence in politics, economics, national defense and foreign policy.” 

 

12.  North Korean Trade Officials Scramble to Import Chinese Construction Materials

rfa.org

Hardly an example of self-reliance.

 

13. North Korea diplomacy is only used to advance nuclear programme, says top US official

The Guardian · January 23, 2021

Again, Syd Seiler's comments are getting a lot of press (and that is a good thing).  Every US and ROK official needs to commit these words to memory and put them in the forefront of their minds when they are developing policy and strategy toward north Korea.

Excerpts:

Sydney Seiler, the US national intelligence officer for North Korea, told the Center for Strategic and International Studies thinktank earlier that Pyongyang’s weapons development had been a consistent policy for 30 years.

“Every engagement in diplomacy has been designed to further the nuclear programme, not to find a way out … I just urge people not to let the tactical ambiguity obstruct the strategic clarity about North Korea that we have,” he said.

In my words: we must understand and deal with north Korea's political warfare strategy.

 

14.  Opinion | Kim Jong Un likes to provoke new U.S. presidents. Biden’s team should be prepared.

The Washington Post · by Editorial Board · January 22, 2021

It is interesting the Washington Post Editorial Board chooses this as the subject two days after the inauguration and when the initial focus of the Biden Administration must be on COVID-19 and the economy.  Perhaps they are Sun Tzu acolytes: "Never assume your enemy will not atack, make yourself invincible."

 

15.  Post-Party Congress Clean-up in Pyongyang

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · January 22, 2021

 

16. Kim Yo Jong Stays in the Picture

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · January 22, 2021

A key point: "The Party Congress, along with other political events during the last half of 2020, is shifting North Korean policy priorities away from foreign affairs and diplomatic engagement toward bolstering the country’s defense industry and the developing missiles and WMDs."

Not mentioned in this good analysis is her continued role in the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) and the Propaganda and Agitation Department.  I would argue that she has more power in the OGD than she would derive from a Politburo title.

 

 

"Insurrection by means of guerrilla bands is the true method of warfare for all nations desirous of emancipating themselves from a foreign yoke. It is invincible, indestructible."

- Giuseppe Mazzini

 

"In such a society as ours the only possible chance for change, for mobility, for political, economic, and moral flow lies in the tactics of guerrilla warfare, in the use of fictions, of language."

- Kathy Acker

 

"Be courteous to all, but intimate with few, and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence - true friendship is a plant of slow growth."

- George Washington

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. National Guard allowed back into Capitol complex after lawmakers erupt at banishment to parking garage

2. Austin to scrub US Pacific posture; more bases, troops likely

3. Biden should focus Defense Production Act on fixing the COVID supply chain

4. Chinese sanctions on former US cabinet members send powerful deterrent message

5. Beijing sanctions Pompeo, other anti-China hawks, sets 'bottom line' on bilateral ties

6. At Voice of America, a sweeping ouster of Trump officials on Biden’s first full day

7. Cut loose by tech giants, will far-right extremists be adrift?

8. Biden’s ‘big four’ to refine Trump’s China policy

9. Biden orders sweeping assessment of Russian hacking, even while renewing nuclear treaty

10. Blinken’s diplomatic cart will have a bumpy ride

11. The last chance for American internationalism

12. US charges Indonesian extremist Hambali in 2002 Bali bombings

13. Nearly 1 in 5 defendants in Capitol riot cases served in the military

 

1. National Guard allowed back into Capitol complex after lawmakers erupt at banishment to parking garage

CNN · Oren Liebermann & Besty Klein · January 22, 2021

No doubt this looks bad and there was some bad planning and communication. But this begs the question: why is the National Guard still deployed? Is it because they do not have a redeployment plan? Doubtful.

Or is it because there is still credible intelligence that a threat remains? Or is there a fear that, as soon as they are redeployed, another incident will occur?

 

2. Austin to scrub US Pacific posture; more bases, troops likely

Breaking Defense · Colin Clark · January 21, 2021

FDD recommendations for INDOPACOM (and all theaters) are here: "Defending Forward Securing America by Projecting Military Power Abroad" 

 

3. Biden should focus Defense Production Act on fixing the COVID supply chain

Defense News · Jeffrey P. Bialos · January 21, 2021

Like the old adage from the 1990s, “It's the economy, stupid!" Here, it is, "it's the supply chain, stupid!"

 

4. Chinese sanctions on former US cabinet members send powerful deterrent message

Global Times · Yu Jincui · January 21, 2021

Well, the Chinese Communist Party is clearly articulating its intent through its propaganda mouthpiece, The Global Times.

 

5. Beijing sanctions Pompeo, other anti-China hawks, sets 'bottom line' on bilateral ties

Global Times · Chen Qingqing et al · January 21, 2021

More from the CCP mouthpiece. Their intent could not be clearer.

They are paying for being members of the Trump administration and for implementing anti-Chinese policies.

They are warning members of the Biden administration that they too will pay for anti-Chinese policy making.

 

6. At Voice of America, a sweeping ouster of Trump officials on Biden’s first full day

Washington Post · Paul Farhi · January 21, 2021

Now we will see if this new team can effectively accomplish the USAGM/VOA/RFA/RFE/RL mission in support of US national security. This is one of the most important organizations in support of our information instrument of national power.

 

7. Cut loose by tech giants, will far-right extremists be adrift?

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace · Alicia Wanless · January 19, 2021

Is the deluge of political disinformation really waning?

 

8. Biden’s ‘big four’ to refine Trump’s China policy

Asia Times · Richard Javad Heydarian · January 22, 2021

 

9. Biden orders sweeping assessment of Russian hacking, even while renewing nuclear treaty

New York Times · David E. Sanger & Julian E. Barnes · January 21, 2021

Absolutely necessary.

Frankly, I am more worried about the cyber threat than the nuclear threat. Obviously we still must modernize our nuclear forces and deter nuclear war as it is the most dangerous threat. But cyber is the most likely threat and it can do tremendous damage in ways that could be extremely deadly.

 

10. Blinken’s diplomatic cart will have a bumpy ride

Asia Times · MK Bhadrakumar · January 22, 2021

An Indian perspective. Here is the author's bio, which is worth a read all by itself.

 

11. The last chance for American internationalism

Foreign Affairs · Hal Brands · January 20, 2021

 

12. US charges Indonesian extremist Hambali in 2002 Bali bombings

South China Morning Post · Agence France-Presse · January 22, 2021

The CT fight must continue.

 

13. Nearly 1 In 5 defendants in Capitol riot cases served in the military

NPR · Tom Dreisbach & Meg Anderson · January 21, 2021

Of course, not every former military person there was radicalized or had any intent of attacking the democratic process at the Capitol. I know most military members who supported Trump are not radicalized and believe in supporting and defending the Constitution. We need to be careful about painting all military personnel and al Trump supporters with a broad brush. 

But the question is asked: does this mean there is a radicalization problem in the military? I was asked about this issue by a journalist recently. Here is my response.

This is probably one of the most complex and difficult issues the military must address.

On the one hand, extremism in the ranks absolutely cannot be tolerated. On the other hand, the appearance of witch hunts and purges and unfounded and mistaken allegations will undermine good order and discipline of military units as much as radicals in the ranks.

This problem is a leadership issue, a law enforcement investigation issue, and even a counterintelligence issue. Leaders at all levels must know the signs of extremism and deal with military personnel who are acting in accordance with extremist beliefs. The problem is drawing the line between what may be legitimate political views (which may be distasteful to some) and what is deemed extremist activity. The chain of command can only act when someone is violating the UCMJ or other laws. And if the military embarks on a campaign to identify those with extremist beliefs and makes mistakes or overreaches, it will not only undermine trust and confidence in military leadership. It will play right into the propaganda narratives of extremist organizations.

I do not know if the reserve components are more vulnerable than active-duty personnel.  Frankly, I doubt there is that much difference. Ideology and beliefs do not halt at military gates and checkpoints, especially in the information age.

And another issue would be if the military ever started trying to monitor online activity of service members. Again, this would serve to really disrupt military organizations and, again, play into the extremist propaganda narrative and would contribute to radicalizing more personnel. 

If I was advising a foreign intelligence organization, I would start creating and providing false information about servicemembers' beliefs. I would create deep fakes to implicate service members in extremist activity to cause overreactions by unit chains of command. This would be one of the most subversive actions that could be taken against modern military organizations in western democracies.

Again, we cannot tolerate extremist activity in the ranks. But if we over-react to it, we will damage the military and contribute to the radicalization and recruitment of more personnel.

There are no easy answers, but leaders, law enforcement investigators, and counterintelligence personnel are going to have figure this out without playing into the hands of the extremists.

The bottom line: an extremely complex and dangerous problem with no easy answers.

 

"We rest our hopes too much upon constitutions, upon laws, and upon courts. These are false hopes; believe me, these are false hopes. Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it.”

- Judge Learned Hand

"Science gives us knowledge, but only philosophy can give us wisdom."

- Will Durant

"The essential thing is action. Action has three stages: the decision born of thought, the order or preparation for execution, and the execution itself. All three stages are governed by the will. The will is rooted in character, and for the man of action character is of more critical importance than intellect. Intellect without will is worthless, will without intellect is dangerous."

- Hans von Seeckt.