News

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. DepSecDef Will Run Most Missile Defense, Nuke Modernization; SecDef Recused

2.  Pentagon Clears Out Advisory Boards to Oust Last-Minute Trump Picks

3. This is why so few troops have gotten the COVID-19 vaccine

4. How Kathleen Hicks will approach nukes, shipbuilding and the budget

5. What the National Guard Deployment to D.C. Tells Us

6. Forging 21st-Century Strategic Deterrence

7. Academic jailed in Iran pulls off daring escape back to Britain

8. Every Soldier a Drone Fighter: Plan Would Make Counter-UAS Training an Army Requirement

9. China’s Post-Pandemic Future: Wuhan Wobbly?

10. 'Their goal is to destroy everyone': Uighur camp detainees allege systematic rape

11. Can the U.S. End Supply Chain Links to Forced Uighur Labor?

12. FDD | It's Time to Sanction Russia for Poisoning Alexei Navalny

13. FDD | Treasury Report Highlights Turkey as Islamic State’s Logistical Hub

14. Global democracy has a very bad year

15. General James Mattis and the Changing Nature of War

16. Alliances need to be viewed from strategic vantage, not just cost: Hicks

17. The Erosion of America's Professional Officer Corps

18. Opinion | Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?

19. Biden Stakes America’s Claim in the Pacific Against China

20. America is bitterly divided. Here’s how our nation’s veterans can bring us together

21. A Proud Boy Capitol Rioter’s Story

22. The Capitol Rioters Aren’t Like Other Extremists

 

 

1. DepSecDef Will Run Most Missile Defense, Nuke Modernization; SecDef Recused

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

This is quite the praise for Dr. Hicks: "Gates introduced Hicks to the committee and praised her “deep knowledge” of the Pentagon’s “bureaucratic black arts.”

I wonder if there is a PhD program in the "bureaucratic black arts."  Or do you have to go to the ninja dojo to gain those skills along with knife fighting.

 

2. Pentagon Clears Out Advisory Boards to Oust Last-Minute Trump Picks

WSJ · by Nancy A. Youssef

Probably not unexpected.  But here is the memo the SECDEF signed. https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/DoDAdvisoryCommittees-Zero-Based-Review.pdf. It is useful in that it provides a comprehensive list of all the advisory boards.

 

3. This is why so few troops have gotten the COVID-19 vaccine

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · February 2, 2021

Again, if the active duty military does not want the vaccine there are plenty of military retirees who would gladly take it.

 

4.  How Kathleen Hicks will approach nukes, shipbuilding and the budget

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · February 2, 2021

Dr. Hicks will have a very complex and challenging portfolio.

 

5. What the National Guard Deployment to D.C. Tells Us

realcleardefense.com · by Bradley Bowman

From my FDD colleague, Brad Bowman.  I think he makes arguments that should resonate with Americans outside the beltway bubble and are hopefully discussed at coffee shops and other gathering places (after COVID is dealt with). This is an example of an OpEd I would like to see in local papers throughout the US.  Deterrence is one of the hardest concepts to argue for and prove.  And as a wise Command Sergeant Major often told me, the house that is not burning does not make the news.  Deterrence is the house that is not burning.

Excerpts:

The Guard's role last month in D.C. vividly demonstrates the potentially decisive deterrent value of American ground forces when properly equipped, trained, and positioned.

While there is certainly a difference between armed domestic violent extremists and nation-state adversaries abroad, Americans have seen the same deterrent benefits of forward-positioned forces abroad. In 1997, a high-ranking North Korean defector stated that U.S. military forces in South Korea were the only thing deterring North Korean aggression.

In Europe, Moscow has invaded non-NATO countries such as Ukraine and Georgia in recent years. But after more than seven decades, the Kremlin has never invaded a NATO member country. The presence of joint U.S. combat forces, including ground forces, in Europe, makes clear to Moscow that America and its NATO allies have the military capability to defend against an attack.

The events last month in D.C. demonstrate the National Guard's value and suggest decision makers should think twice before withdrawing U.S. ground forces abroad from key locations at the frontiers of freedom.

 

What the National Guard Deployment to D.C. Tells Us

realcleardefense.com · by Bradley Bowman

 

6. Forging 21st-Century Strategic Deterrence

usni.org - Admiral Charles A. Richard - February 1, 2021

Speaking of deterrence.

Excerpts:

While DoD’s focus has been on counterterrorism, Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have begun to aggressively challenge international norms and global peace using instruments of power and threats of force in ways not seen since the height of the Cold War—and in some cases, in ways not seen during the Cold War, such as cyberattacks and threats in space. Not surprisingly, they are even taking advantage of the global pandemic to advance their national agendas. These behaviors are destabilizing, and if left unchecked, increase the risk of great power crisis or conflict. We must actively compete to hold their aggression in check; ceding to their initiatives risks reinforcing their perceptions that the United States is unwilling or unable to respond, which could further embolden them. Additionally, our allies may interpret inaction as an unwillingness or inability to lead. Remaining passive may deny us opportunities to position in ways that underpin one of our greatest strengths: strategic power projection. The moment an adversary’s initiative becomes a fait accompli, the United States would be forced to decide whether to accept their “new normal,” employ military force to reestablish the status quo, or set our own “new normal.”

...

While this is a sobering picture, it is not intended to discourage; rather, it is meant to highlight reality and reinvigorate a conversation across the enterprise. Our challenges are not insurmountable. Time and again, DoD has demonstrated its willingness and ability to address changing environments. We must adapt to today’s strategic environment by understanding our opponents’ threats and their decision calculus. We must also accept the gauntlet of great power competition with our nuclear-capable peers. It is through a holistic risk assessment process that we can better align national resources and military readiness to ensure strategic security. In the end, it comes back to the threat. Until we come to a broad understanding of what the threat is and what to do about it, we risk suffering embarrassment—or perhaps worse—at the hands of our adversaries.

 

7. Academic jailed in Iran pulls off daring escape back to Britain

The Guardian · by Patrick Wintour · February 3, 2021

Truth is stranger than fiction.  There is a movie in this. I am reminded of the late great Bull Simons getting Ross Perot's EDDS employees out of Iran during the embassy hostage crisis in 1979-1980.  And this academic sounds like the OSS adage, A PhD who can handle himself in a bar fight.

Excerpts:

He escaped carrying only his laptop and copies of the books and articles he had published, crossing the border through snow 1.5 metres deep and fog, evading Iranian border patrols. Border security has been heightened ever since the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in Tehran last year.

“I am Kurdish by ethnicity and I know some of the routes, but it was very dangerous. I had to try several times,” he said.

Ahmady followed the paths used by mountain porters evading US-imposed sanctions to carry alcohol, car parts, medicine, cigarettes and contraband from Iraq and Turkey. But the routes are hazardous: one smuggler carrying four tyres on his back was recently shot by border guards, while several others have frozen to death.

He said he feared if he had been caught he would have faced more years in jail, but he had to take the risk. “I smuggled myself out of Iran out of despair,” he said. “I felt I had no other choice or option to leave. I was banned from travelling. I had this bounty and this sentence.”

 

8.  Every Soldier a Drone Fighter: Plan Would Make Counter-UAS Training an Army Requirement

military.com · by Matthew Cox · February 2, 2021

The old SAFAD - small arms for air defense - modernized.

 

9. China’s Post-Pandemic Future: Wuhan Wobbly?

warontherocks.com · by Andrew Scobell · February 3, 2021

From one of our China experts.  I have often counted on Andrew's work on China and its relations with north Korea.

This excerpt reminds me of the question Dr. Jung Pak always asks about the Kim family regime: who does it fer most?  The answer for the regime and the CCP is the same.

Excerpts:

The greatest irony of the People’s Republic — as I have written elsewhere — is that what the ruling CCP fears most are the people of China. The CCP is fearful that the people power opposition movements which shook countries and toppled regimes around the world will inspire Chinese crowds to take to the streets. The CCP is preoccupied with a plethora of different groups — disgruntled workers, irate farmers, unhappy veterans, disaffected religious groups, and restive ethnic minorities — each of which has registered dissatisfaction through physical demonstrations and online activism in recent years.

...

The prospect of a wobbly China and disjointed military is not a recipe for reassurance in the United States. A weaker or more insecure Beijing will present different challenges to that of a stronger and overconfident Beijing. But these will not be any easier and they are likely to be far more complicated. A less potent China may be disposed to act more erratically, possess heightened sensitivity to perceived threats, and be more prone to overreact. While China may not turn out to be the unstoppable juggernaut it is often made out to be, a wobbly Beijing will present a different set of challenges.

The Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration should look past China’s stable present and heighten vigilance to detect harbingers of future upheaval. Priorities ought to include continuous efforts to engage with a wide array of elites. This increases the chances that Washington is attuned to emerging trends, alert to future shocks, and acquainted with China’s post-COVID-19 leadership. Another priority should be crafting a purposeful military-to-military relationship to enhance U.S. ability to monitor the progress of China’s defense transformation and engage with rising PLA leaders. The likely persistence of bumpy bilateral ties underscores the importance of maintaining open channels of communication between the two defense establishments.

 

10.  'Their goal is to destroy everyone': Uighur camp detainees allege systematic rape

BBC · by Matthew Hill, David Campanale, and Joel Gunter

A very graphic article that is not meant for all audiences.  I just cannot find any more words to describe the truly evil nature of the perpetrators and the Chinese Communist Party in this article.

There are images at the link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55794071

 

11. Can the U.S. End Supply Chain Links to Forced Uighur Labor?

lawfareblog.com – by John Foote - February 2, 2021

Recommendations for revision to US law.

Conclusion:

Finally, and maybe most importantly, the statute should include a built-in incentive to keep legitimate trade flowing. Companies prepared to work with their supply chains on the leading edge of corporate social responsibility and sustainable sourcing should be able to preserve the ability to trade in responsibly sourced goods. Enshrining the ability to prove that a given channel of supply is free of forced labor—including with the use of technologically sophisticated tracing technologies, to achieve “green lane” access to uninterrupted importation—is a powerful incentive, not available under current law, that should be created.

In truth, a revised statute that accomplished even some of these goals would be a marked improvement on the status quo. Here’s hoping the 117th Congress and stakeholders across all constituencies are up for the challenge.

 

12. FDD | It's Time to Sanction Russia for Poisoning Alexei Navalny

fdd.org · by Matthew Zweig and Andrea Stricker · February 2, 2021

From my FDD colleagues.

Excerpts:

Already in 2018, Biden was suggesting that the United States target Russian money laundering and involvement in U.S. financial and real estate markets. The U.S. should freeze the foreign-held assets of Putin, other Kremlin officials, and rich oligarchs close to Putin, which would indicate to the Russian leader that America will shake the foundation of his rule by targeting his pocketbook and that of his wealthy supporters.

Navalny is in a precarious situation. By acting resolutely, Biden may shield him from additional harm.

Mere rhetoric on the part of the Biden administration will only delay a reckoning with Russia. On the other hand, targeting Putin where it hurts would send a strong signal to the Russian people—currently protesting en masse for change—that America is behind them.

 

13. FDD | Treasury Report Highlights Turkey as Islamic State’s Logistical Hub

fdd.org · by Aykan Erdemir · February 2, 2021

And from another of my FDD colleagues.

Conclusion: The Biden administration should urge Ankara to adopt a zero-tolerance policy toward terror finance and to end its permissive policies and lenient treatment of jihadist networks within Turkey. Treasury, meanwhile, should continue to issue sanctions against Turkey-based terror financiers.

 

14. Global democracy has a very bad year

The Economist – 2 Feb 2021

We should be troubled by this report.

 

15.  General James Mattis and the Changing Nature of War

thecipherbrief.com – Walter Pincus

Excerpt:

The entire 45-minute discussion is worth hearing as Mattis, encouraged by Vickers, provided a stimulating, tour d’horizon of national security issues facing us all, including both foreign and domestic terrorism.

The video can be viewed here :https://vimeo.com/507184513. It is actually 90 minutes with the traditional cocktail mixing and history and films about the Marines in the OSS and the National Museum of Intelligence and Special Operations.

As noted he covers a lot of ground to include discussions of SOF and the intelligence community.  It is definitely worth watching.

 

16. Alliances need to be viewed from strategic vantage, not just cost: Hicks

koreaherald.com · February 3, 2021

Excellent.  This is an argument we have to make to the American people who have only heard about the costs and the transactional basis of our alliances. We have to be able to describe the strategic value in meaningful terms to the American people.

We try to make the argument of their importance here but we have to get this message and others like to the American people:  Defending Forward Securing America by Projecting Military Power Abroad https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/12/15/defending-forward/

 

17. The Erosion of America's Professional Officer Corps

The National Interest · by William S. Smith · February 2, 2021

For discussion among PME classes and through the military, active and retired. 

Excerpts:

There is something troubling about the current culture of America’s elite officer corps, not simply in their politicization but also in their now routine acceptance of a revolving door onto the boards of defense contractors, security companies, and others vying for government contracts. The healthy tradition of a separate and professional officer corps who would give their unvarnished and unbiased opinions to America’s civilian leaders is breaking down; many retired military leaders are now both partisan and display huge financial conflicts of interest.

No one wants to place a hard ban preventing retired military officers from becoming involved in politics; retired military officers do have First Amendment rights. However, the nation is clearly poorer without senior military officers of the caliber of George Marshall, who probably had strong political views but, for the sake of the country, he approached his First Amendment rights with restraint, discretion, and professionalism.

 

18.  Opinion | Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?

The New York Times · by David Leonhardt · February 2, 2021

Some fascinating data.  Charts are at the link: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/opinion/sunday/democrats-economy.html?

 

19.  Biden Stakes America’s Claim in the Pacific Against China

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · February 2, 2021

 

20. America is bitterly divided. Here’s how our nation’s veterans can bring us together

taskandpurpose.com · by Nate Anderson and Joe Chenelly · February 2, 2021

Can we?

 

21. A Proud Boy Capitol Rioter’s Story

icsve.org · by Anne Speckhard · February 2, 2021

 

22. The Capitol Rioters Aren’t Like Other Extremists

defenseone.com · by Robert A. Pape and Keven Ruby – 2 February 2021

I think this is some very important analysis that needs further exploration.

Conclusion: What’s clear is that the Capitol riot revealed a new force in American politics—not merely a mix of right-wing organizations, but a broader mass political movement that has violence at its core and draws strength even from places where Trump supporters are in the minority. Preventing further violence from this movement will require a deeper understanding of its activities and participants, and the two of us do not claim to know which political tactics might ultimately prove helpful. But Americans who believe in democratic norms should be wary of pat solutions. Some of the standard methods of countering violent extremism—such as promoting employment or waiting patiently for participants to mellow with age—probably won’t mollify middle-aged, middle-class insurrectionists. And simply targeting better-established far-right organizations will not prevent people like the Capitol rioters from trying to exercise power by force.

 

 

"When people reflect on what it takes to be mentally fit, the first idea that comes to mind is usually intelligence. The smarter you are, the more complex the problems you can solve - and the faster you can solve them. Intelligence is traditionally viewed as the ability to think and learn. Yet in a turbulent world, there’s another set of cognitive skills that might matter more: the ability to rethink and unlearn.

 

Mental horsepower doesn’t guarantee mental dexterity. No matter how much brainpower you have, if you lack the motivation to change your mind, you’ll miss many occasions to think again. Research reveals that the higher you score on an IQ test, the more likely you are to fall for ste­reotypes, because you’re faster at recognizing patterns. And recent experiments suggest that the smarter you are, the more you might struggle to update your beliefs.

 

The curse of knowledge is that it closes your mind to what you don’t know. Good judgment depends on having the skill - and the wil - to open your mind. A hallmark of wisdom is knowing when it’s time to abandon some of the most cherished parts of your identity."

- Adam Grant in Think Again

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. To compete with China and Russia, the U.S. military must redefine ‘readiness’

2.  Why Operation Warp Speed worked

3. Great responsibility demands a great navy

4. Cyber espionage is not cyber attack

5. How to root out extremism in the U.S. military

6. The boogaloo bois have guns, criminal records and military training. Now they want to overthrow the government.

7. Why Gen. Mark Milley will probably keep his job as Joint Chiefs Chairman

8. House Democrat: screen troops’ social media for links to extremists

9. US State Secretary Blinken criticises Russia, weighs possible sanctions on North Korea

10. In China, how people are pushing back on surveillance state

11. Access denied? The future of U.S. basing in a contested world

12. Lawyers, guns, and Twitter: wargaming the role of law in war

13. The key foreign policy challenges facing President Biden

14.   ‘Imposing costs’ on Beijing for bad behavior

15. Antony Blinken endorses refugee status in US for Hong Kong dissidents

16. Intel agency worker pushed his own drone company, report details

17. One data scientist’s quest to quash misinformation

18. China is a rising digital superpower. Europe and the U.S. must catch up - together.

19. A vast web of vengeance

20. The Army can't officially say who is an 'Army Ranger'

 

1. To compete with China and Russia, the U.S. military must redefine ‘readiness’

Washington Post · Charles Q. Brown Jr. and David H. Berger · February 2, 2021

I make the following comment and recommendation based on what a fellow retired SF officer said to me recently about think tanks, monographs, op-eds in the major papers, etc. Americans across the country are not reading all the research and commentary that is being done and written inside the Beltway. While it is great that two generals are making their argument in public in the Washington Post, they (and other leaders in the national security community) should consider writing op-eds in local papers throughout the US,  writing specifically to the American people. They should add a paragraph or two on why their argument is important to regular Americans and put it in terms that have meaning to and resonate with them.

The bottom line is that national security practitioners need to start writing for the American people and not just for Congress, the White House, the Departments, the press, and each other.

They need to explain how national security affects the average citizen in ways that citizens can understand concretely. They make the argument as to why it is necessary to invest in national security. 

As another smart think tanker and friend said to me, this might even be a better way to influence Congress - if constituents talk to their representatives about the issues they will have to address them.  If issues are important to constituents, they have to be important to Congress (a little Sun Tzu and the indirect approach might be useful).

 

2. Why Operation Warp Speed worked

Wall Street Journal · Arthur Herman · February 1, 2021

Except that it proved easier to get the supplies produced by our great industrial base shipped to the European and Pacific theaters and employed against our adversaries than it has been to get the vaccinations distributed internally inside the US and to get the vaccines employed by John Q. Public to fight the enemy virus.

Yes, that is a snarky comment, but we need the American people to be as mobilized to fight the virus as we were to fight the Axis powers in WWII.

 

3. Great responsibility demands a great navy

US Naval Institute · James Holmes · February 2021

Yes, I am on a rant. Great argument here. What does it mean to the American citizen in Ohio, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Montana?  Can we put this in terms that will resonate with our fellow citizens? Yes, navies need advocates in high places, but they also need the support of the American people.

Now I do not mean to be flippant here, but Professor Holmes is on the right track with his Spiderman reference. This is a start. Use cultural references for good effect. I would argue that the advocates in high places he references, the Roosevelts and Reagan, had one key characteristic in common: they could effectively communicate with the American people.

 

4. Cyber espionage is not cyber attack

C4ISR Net · James Van de Velde · February 1, 2021

A powerful conclusion. I am sure his arguments will create some important debate.

 

5. How to Root Out Extremism in the U.S. Military

Defense One · Heather Williams · February 1, 2021

Very carefully and with a scalpel and not a chainsaw.  If we do this wrong, we might cause irreparable harm to military organizations.

But we have to be very careful about these recommendations. Some will play right into the extremist narrative.

And I would ask how this essay will play in Peoria? Does this make an argument that will resonate with the American people?

 

6. The boogaloo bois have guns, criminal records and military training. Now they want to overthrow the government.

ProPublica · A.C. Thompson, Lila Hassan, & Karim Hajj · February 1, 2021

This will stir things up on social media.

What I never see in these reports, or in the writings of the extremists, is their theory of victory and success. What do they mean by overthrow the government? What does that look like and how does it play out? I do not see any practical plan for armed insurrection other than fomenting chaos and unrest.  What does that achieve? I would like to read something from these leaders that explains how they expect to "win."

I frankly think that there is no real leadership of these organizations that can achieve victory. All these leaders can do is fire people up in very dangerous ways, but they give them no practical plan of action. The leaders are nothing more than "romantic revolutionaries," who really do not know what they are doing or are only doing this for personal power, reward, and probably to feed their narcissistic personalities.

I would offer this description of the leaders of these extremist organizations:

In our class on “Unconventional Warfare for Policy Makers and Strategists,” we were discussing leadership in underground resistance movements and insurgencies. In our reading from “Human Factors Considerations of Undergrounds in Insurgencies” was this passage on evaluating one type of leader found in underground resistance movements (i.e. narcissism).

P. 98-99  “… Egocentricity is a normal component in infantile development; however, as a child develops into adolescence, he or she is supposed to become less self-absorbed and more cognizant of others. Narcissism is a psychoanalytic theory that holds that primary narcissism (or self-love) in the form of grandiose self does not diminish as the individual develops and expands his or her social network. If this fails to occur, regardless of reason, the grandiose self-image can result in individuals who are sociopathic, arrogant, and devoid of compassion for others. Some leaders demonstrate a marked desire for admiration and attention, a hallmark of narcissism.  Their chosen methods of violence are often spectacular and attention grabbing, suggesting a more narcissistic clinical presentation.

There are also those who exhibit a narcissistic leadership style although they probably do not meet the clinical criteria for an Axis II disorder. In fact, this leadership style is heavily represented in the military, industry, and academia. Characteristics of the narcissistic leadership style include a vulnerability to biased information processing that results in an overestimation of their own strength and an underestimation of their adversary’s, a grandiose and self-serving disposition, a lack of tolerance for competition, difficulty relying on experts, and a desire for sycophantic subordinates. Often displaying superficial arrogance over profound personal insecurity, they actively seek admiration, are vulnerable to insults, slights, and attacks, and are prone to rage. Key observables that indicate this style are the leader’s sensitivity to criticism, surrounding themselves with sycophants, and overvaluation of his chances of success and an underestimation of the strength of an opponent.”

 

7. Why Gen. Mark Milley will probably keep his job as Joint Chiefs Chairman

Military.com · Oriana Pawlyk · February 1, 2021

 

8. House Democrat: screen troops’ social media for links to extremists

NBC News · Dan De Luce · February 1, 2021

This plays right into extremists’ hands. The Democrats need to be careful here or they will confirm the extremist narratives.

 

9. US State Secretary Blinken criticizes Russia, weighs possible sanctions on North Korea

Straits Times · February 1, 2021

SECSTATE has his hands full. He has literally had to hit the ground running.

 

10. In China, how people are pushing back on surveillance state

World Crunch · Frederic Schaeffer · February 1, 2021

Are there lessons to be learned?  Can they be assisted from the outside?  What is the resistance potential inside China due to the growing surveillance state?

 

11. Access denied? The future of U.S. basing in a contested world

War On the Rocks · Renanah M. Joyce & Brian Blankenship · February 1, 2021

Some thought-provoking ideas.

Although we did not describe the issue exactly this way, I think our recent monograph, Defending Forward: Securing America by Projecting Military Power Abroad, makes a similar argument.

 

12. Lawyers, guns, and Twitter: wargaming the role of law in war

War On the Rocks · Thomas J. Gordon IV et al. · February 2, 2021

 

13. The key foreign policy challenges facing President Biden

TIME · Ian Bremmer · January 30, 2021

 

14. ‘Imposing costs’ on Beijing for bad behavior

Asia Times · Grant Newsham · February 2, 2021

Make the leaders feel the pain. But is that easier said than done?

 

15. Antony Blinken endorses refugee status in US for Hong Kong dissidents

Washington Examiner · Joel Gehrke · February 1, 2021

 

16. Intel agency worker pushed his own drone company, report details

Defense One · Patrick Tucker · February 1, 2021

Oops.

 

17. One data scientist’s quest to quash misinformation

Wired · Sonner Kehrt · September 15, 2020

 

18. China is a rising digital superpower. Europe and the U.S. must catch up - together.

Washington Post · Carl Bildt · February 1, 2021

 

19. A vast web of vengeance

New York Times · Kashmir Hill · January 30, 2021

What a story. A cautionary tale, the dangers of the internet, and the power of someone online.

 

20. The Army can't officially say who is an 'Army Ranger'

Task & Purpose

This is getting entirely too much airtime (so I am guilty of contributing to it). I have always considered myself "Ranger qualified" and would not do otherwise out of respect for those Rangers who actually served in the Ranger Regiment. But that is inside Army baseball. This should not be a public controversy.  And many senior Rangers have recently answered on this subject so we should leave it to them. We are pole vaulting over molehills.

 

“Everything that irritates us about others can lead us to an understanding of ourselves.”

- Carl Jung

“Read, read, read. Read everything -- trash, classics, good and bad, and see how they do it."

- William Faulkner

"... there’s an enormous difference between democracy promotion by coercive and non-coercive means. Voice of America broadcasts and the National Endowment for Democracy cross international borders in a very different manner than the 82nd Airborne Division does."

- Joseph Nye

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. N. Korea beefs up missile units, special forces over past years: defense ministry

2. FM nominee Chung rejects allegations of push to help build nuke power plant in N. Korea

3. Blinken says U.S. looking for ways to move N. Korea denuclearization forward

4. Energy ministry unveils document to calm dispute over N. Korea reactor plan

5. No country can survive alone

6. JCS chiefs of Korea, U.S. agree on OPCON goals over phone

7. US may take two-track approach to North Korea issue

8. KBS seeks to open Pyongyang bureau: report

9. Nuclear plant row may increase US concerns over inter-Korean projects

10. South Korea "downgrades" Japan's status in defense white paper

11. North Korea's latest show of strength is meant to hide its weaknesses

12. The fallacy of North Korean collapse

13. Moon's nuclear phaseout policy eroded by suspected reactor project

14. DPRK: Pursue accountability for human rights violations, UN report urges international community

15. Denuclearization of North Korea is possible

 

1. N. Korea beefs up missile units, special forces over past years: defense ministry

Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · February 2, 2021

We will be discussing the ROK Ministry of National Defense's white paper for the next few days.

Defintely some key – and controversial – points…

 

2. FM nominee Chung rejects allegations of push to help build nuke power plant in N. Korea

Yonhap News Agency · 송상호 · February 2, 2021

I wonder how much damage this controversy will cause and how long it will be in the news.

 

3. Blinken says U.S. looking for ways to move N. Korea denuclearization forward

Yonhap News Agency · 변덕근 · February 2, 2021

Both/and versus either/or. But the Biden administration isn’t going to simply embrace the Moon administration's vision for peace at any cost. 

 

4. Energy ministry unveils document to calm dispute over N. Korea reactor plan

Yonhap News Agency · 이민지 · February 1, 2021

Will this calm the controversy?

 

5. No country can survive alone

Dong-A Ilbo · February 2, 2021

An important historical analogy.  The ROK needs the alliance.

 

6. JCS chiefs of Korea, U.S. agree on OPCON goals over phone

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Sarah Kim · February 2, 2021

This will continue to be a source of friction. But if the Defense Ministry wants to make combined exercises negotiable with North Korea, there will be insufficient training of the theater HQ to meet the conditions for the OPCON transition process to progress.

 

7. US may take two-track approach to North Korea issue

Korea Times · Do Je-hae · February 2, 2021

But the policy review must be conducted and completed. There is impatience in South Korea for understanding the way ahead and some of the ROK actions are starting to put the Biden administration in a box (e.g., Minister Suh's comments about negotiations with the North over combined exercises as well as other ROKG engagement proposals). We do have a timing problem now. The Biden administration is just getting on its feet while the Moon administration is running out of time. We really only have about the next 6-7 months, because by the fall, the South will be decisively engaged with the presidential election process. The Biden administration will want to act with deliberate speed and take a long-term view while the Moon administration is ready to act with great haste.

 

8. KBS seeks to open Pyongyang Bureau: report

Korea Times · Park Ji-won · February 2, 2021

Well, this could be interesting (and potentially useful) but of course controversial. It would be useful if it is in support of a superior form of political warfare. But we should be under no illusion about the fantasy of this aim (while it is a nice overt, public objective, it is not based in reality).

 

9. Nuclear plant row may increase US concerns over inter-Korean projects

Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · February 2, 2021

If the information was shared, it would reduce the friction. But the proposal illustrates the two different views the ROK and US hold about the nature of the Kim family regime and its objectives. This issue must be worked out soon and the alliance must go forward with sufficiently aligned strategic assumptions about the regime.

 

10. South Korea “downgrades” Japan’s status in defense white paper

Kyodo News · February 2, 2021

Again. The ROK should be better than this. MND has succumbed to political pressure from the Blue House. And, of course, North Korea is not an "enemy" again either.

 

11. North Korea’s latest show of strength is meant to hide its weaknesses

Business Insider · February 1, 2021

Yes, but. The Kim family regime has been "winning," or at least surviving, the poker game with a pair of 2s for years.

I agree that Kim is in a relatively weak position due to the strains of the triple whammy (sanctions, COVID response, and natural disasters) combined with his poor policy decisions and priorities.

But I also think his actions are not merely to cover weakness but to support his political warfare strategy. Despite his weakness, he continues to be on the offensive from a political warfare and blackmail diplomacy perspective. He is trying to shape the environment the conditions.

 

12. The fallacy of North Korean collapse

38 North · Sang Ki Kim & Eun-Ju Choi · February 1, 2021

Look, if North Korea collapses, it will be catastrophic. It will not be benign and the conditions that lead to regime collapse can also lead to the regime making the decision to execute its campaign plan to ensure survival. Too often analysts overlook this fact when they want to pooh-pooh collapse analysis.

Of course, there is no analysis of what may cause collapse, especially the governing effectiveness of the party and the regime or the coherence and support of the military. Instead, it rehashes the bankrupt ideas that people think the collapsed economy and horrendous humanitarian conditions will lead to  regime collapse.

 

13. Moon’s nuclear phaseout policy eroded by suspected reactor project

Straits Times · February 2, 2021

This is an example of the contradictions of many of the Moon administration policies. It wants to eliminate nuclear power in the South and with that will go the South's nuclear expertise. How will it be able to build a nuclear power plant in North Korea? 

 

14. DPRK: Pursue accountability for human rights violations, UN report urges international community

United Nations (OHCHR) · February 2, 2021

Yes. And it is time for the Biden administration to appoint a special envoy for human rights in North Korea.

Human rights is a national security issue in addition to a moral imperative.

The full 15-page report can be accessed here.

 

15. Denuclearization of North Korea is possible

38 North · Joseph R. DeTrani · February 1, 2021

I certainly hope Ambassador DeTrani is right. I say pursue denuclearization but have a plan B to deal with the worst cases. Give Kim every opportunity to denuclearize but not through concessions or appeasement (which will only embolden him).

Although I am sure it plays to Kim's vanity, I do not think he will ever be a Deng or Gorbachev.

 

“Everything that irritates us about others can lead us to an understanding of ourselves.”

- Carl Jung

“Read, read, read. Read everything -- trash, classics, good and bad, and see how they do it."

- William Faulkner

"... there’s an enormous difference between democracy promotion by coercive and non-coercive means. Voice of America broadcasts and the National Endowment for Democracy cross international borders in a very different manner than the 82nd Airborne Division does."

- Joseph Nye

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Defending forward to confront China’s military aims

2. Facebook knew calls for violence plagued ‘groups,’ now plans overhaul

3. Sub-threshold maneuver and the flanking of U.S. national security

4. As Xi professes a commitment to ‘multilateralism,’ the U.S. counters with a dose of reality

5. Solorigate attack - the challenge to cyber deterrence

6. How we lose against China: social media and internal political extremes could undermine the United States

7. Russia protesters defy vast police operation as signs of Kremlin anxiety mount

8. Biden to 'build on' Trump's anti-China coalition

9. We need to inoculate military servicemembers against information threats: the case for digital literacy training

10. The CIA fine-tunes its hiring pitch to millennials and gen Z

11. The challenge of abstraction: assessing Cold War analogies to the present period

12. WHO teams visits Wuhan food market in search of virus clues

13. National Freedom Day: deepening our resolve to fight human trafficking

14. A super-max failure and the case for going irregular: recalibrating US policy toward Iran

15. Direct participation in hostilities in the age of cyber: exploring the fault lines

16. U.S. needs to deny, not dominate, China in the Indo-Pacific

 

1. Defending forward to confront China’s military aims

Real Clear Defense · Craig Singleton · January 30, 2021

From my FDD colleague, Craig Singleton.

 

2. Facebook new calls for violence plagued ‘groups,’ now plans overhaul

Wall Street Journal · Jeff Horwitz · January 31, 2021

How to balance free expression with safety and security?  While I do not want (excessive) government regulation, I certainly do not trust big tech (and the likes of Zuckerberg). This is a critical dilemma we have.

 

3. Sub-threshold maneuver and the flanking of U.S. national security

Mad Scientist Laboratory · Dr. Russell Glenn · February 1, 2021

From my friend and mentor, Dr. Russ Glenn. Russ was my SAMS seminar leader (Seminar 4 - The House of Pain) at Leavenworth more than two decades ago! My, how time flies. This essay reminds me of what every day was like in SAMS and why I always recommend SAMS to any officer who wants to think deeply about the profession of arms.

A lot of food for (deep) thought in this essay. The complete essay from which this is derived can be accessed here.

 

4. As Xi professes a commitment to ‘multilateralism,’ the U.S. counters with a dose of reality

Foundation for Defense of Democracies · Thomas Joscelyn · January 28, 2021

From another of my FDD colleagues, Thomas Joscelyn.

 

5. Solorigate attack – the challenge to cyber deterrence

C4ISR Net · Jan Kallberg · January 30, 2021

 

6. How we lose against China: social media and internal political extremes could undermine the United States

National Review · Robert D. Kaplan · January 21, 2021

 

7. Russia protesters defy vast police operation as signs of Kremlin anxiety mount

New York Times · Anton Troianovski et al. · January 31, 2021

 

8. Biden to 'build on' Trump's anti-China coalition

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Jin-myung & Lee Ha-won · February 1, 2021

Korea is going to have to step up and decide if it is going to be a great middle power or remain a shrimp among whales. I know all my professional friends (diplomats and military) from Korea know the right way ahead. The question is whether the politicians will take the right path.

 

9. We need to inoculate military servicemembers against information threats: the case for digital literacy training

War On the Rocks · Peter W. Singer & Eric B. Johnson · February 1, 2021

Digital natives, digital immigrants, and digital aliens. You would think our young military personnel would all be digital natives and have grown up with the proper concepts of cyber hygiene and cyber defense. But alas, I think we have a long way to go to inculcate a sense of cyber civil defense into our schools and among the population. Maybe if we get it right in the military it will serve as a positive example.

 

10. The CIA fine-tunes its hiring pitch to millennials and gen Z

Wall Street Journal · Krithika Varagur · January 31, 2021

The CIA is adapting.

 

11. The challenge of abstraction: assessing Cold War analogies to the present period

Divergent Options · Brandon Patterson · February 1, 2021

 

12. WHO teams visits Wuhan food market in search of virus clues

Washington Post · Emily Wang Fujiyama & Zen Soo · January 31, 2021

No easy answers.

 

13. National Freedom Day: deepening our resolve to fight human trafficking

US Department of State · Antony J. Blinken · February 1, 2021

A true scourge that must be stopped. This has to be among the very worst crimes against humanity.

 

14. A super-max failure and the case for going irregular: recalibrating US policy toward Iran

Modern War Institute · Alex Deep · January 29, 2021

But any irregular warfare approach must be nested in a political warfare approach at the national level.  Irregular warfare is one military contribution to political warfare.

 

15. Direct participation in hostilities in the age of cyber: exploring the fault lines

Harvard Law School National Security Journal · Brig. Gen. (ret.) David Wallace, Col. Shane Reeves, and Maj. Trent Powell · February 1, 2021

The full 34-page article can be downloaded here.

 

16. U.S. needs to deny, not dominate, China in the Indo-Pacific

Bloomberg · Hal Brands · January 31, 2021

An interesting critique from Hal Brands.

 

"A man is morally free when, in full possession of his living humanity, he judges the world, and judges other men, with uncompromising sincerity."

- George Santayana

“Take the civil service out of government and the country will collapse. Take politics out of government and the country will flourish.”

- Abhijit Naskar

“To change a political system, the majority of the thinking citizens must unite, speak with one voice, and stand firm like one leg.”

- Dr. Ahmed Padia Binkatabana

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Kim Jong Un cannot denuclearize, former North Korean diplomat says

2. Defense ministry refuses to confirm envisioned proposal for inter-Korean talks

3. Moon to phone Biden this week

4. Unification minister denies allegation Seoul pushed to build nuke plant in N. Korea

5. Nuclear power scandal gets worse and worse

6. 'Reactor plan' for North

7. Returning Iran's frozen money can impact tanker release, says Iranian MP

8. Ruling bloc goes all out to fire back over nuclear plant row

9. Biden urged to resume dialogue with North Korea

10. Rocky Seoul-Tokyo ties expected to continue in Biden era

11. Biden should ditch these flawed assumptions about North Korea

12. USD-KPW exchange rate begins climbing amid hopes for restart in trade

13. New virus cases at over 2-month low amid extended curbs (South Korea)

14. 14 USFK-affiliated people test positive for COVID-19

15. Moon urges no more 'regressive' politics amid controversy over alleged N. Korea power plant plan

16. No way out

 

1. Kim Jong Un cannot denuclearize, former North Korean diplomat says

CNN · Yoonjung Seo & Paula Hancocks · February 1, 2021

Not what some want to hear but also that which most of us have long known.

Mr. Ryu's prescription is actually what the regime and those who advocate arms control negotiations and appeasement want to hear. Allow North Korea to be a nuclear power and negotiate arms control measures.

While I absolutely agree that North Korea has no intention of denuclearizing, I do not agree with the prescriptions. All they are doing is allowing North Korea to accrue advantages in pursuit of its long-term goal to dominate the peninsula. Until we understand that and operate based on that assumption, we will never devise a superior political warfare strategy that can be successful against North Korea over time.

 

2. Defense ministry refuses to confirm envisioned proposal for inter-Korean talks

Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · February 1, 2021

In the age of high-tech communications capabilities, I love to see the photo of a soldier using a TA-312 field telephone.

But on a serious note, this issue of negotiating with the North about combined ROK/US alliance exercises is going to create continued alliance friction. The ROK government and military need to clean this up. This is similar to the "three nos" President Moon allegedly agreed to with China over the THAAD issues (no more THAAD deployment, no ROK participating in integrated missile defense, and no trilateral ROK-US-Japan alliance). I stress allegedly, because the Moon administration denied this claim and these reports come from the Chinese, so it is obvious political warfare. The problem with the Chinese incident and now with the discussion about negotiating combined exercises with the North is that the ROK government should not be making third party agreements that affect the alliance and the US without consultation with the US. Of course, in the ROK’s defense, perhaps there have been consultations that have just not been made public. But I seriously doubt any US military leader and any well-informed political leader would acquiesce to a ROK proposal to negotiate combined exercises with the North. I guess we did not learn from the missteps in negotiating the Comprehensive Military Agreement.

 

3. Moon to phone Biden this week

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Ah-jin · February 1, 2021

I am sure some Koreans feel slighted about the timing (especially because Biden has already spoken with Suga). But the Blue House is correct that content matters over timing.

 

4. Unification minister denies allegation Seoul pushed to build nuke plant in N. Korea

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · February 1, 2021

Is this explanation sufficient? As we will see with the reporting on this, it is stirring up a political tempest in Korean domestic politics. But if the reports are true, this provides insight into the assumptions the Moon administration has been making about North Korea and that does not bode well for the ROK/US alliance.

I wonder if this issue could be a reason for the delay of the phone call between Moon and Biden. This and the exercise negotiation with North Korea are not subjects that should be discussed on the first phone call.

 

5. Nuclear power scandal gets worse and worse

Chosun Ilbo · February 1, 2021

Worse and worse. This may drive domestic politics in South Korea for a while. But we need to be cognizant of the controversy as it affects North Korea policy and strategy.

 

6. 'Reactor plan' for North

Korea Times · February 1, 2021

Another negative view (and, frankly, I have not found any positive ones).

That said, the brainstorming and ideas explanation is plausible and even likely. The political opposition may be making more hay out of this than necessary.  And I certainly would not want to stifle creative thinking in the future. But it would have been helpful if the documents also described the discussion about the idea, its relationship to history, and the prospects for it being effective (or more likely ineffective). If there was no analysis accompanying the idea, then that is problematic and appears to indicate there was some kind of support for it.

 

7. Returning Iran's frozen money can impact tanker release, says Iranian MP

Dong-A Ilbo · Sung-Hwi Kang · February 1, 2021

Iran learns from the master (North Korea) on blackmail diplomacy. I wonder if the Kim regime is advising Iran on how to deal with South Korea.

 

8. Ruling bloc goes all out to fire back over nuclear plant row

Korea Times · Do Je-hae · February 1, 2021

I guess this will be a big political row.

 

9. Biden urged to resume dialogue with North Korea

Korea Times · Yang Moo-jin · February 1, 2021

I am all for dialogue with North Korea— as long as it rests on a foundation of a superior political warfare strategy, which seeks an acceptable, durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula that will protect, sustain, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests.

A very nice letter from Professor Yang. However, I disagree with his analysis. If Kim does want to talk and have a "good relationship" with Biden, it is in order to support his political warfare strategy, which seeks to play the Biden and Moon administrations for sanctions relief, to keep his nuclear weapons, to split the ROK/US alliance, and to dominate the peninsula under his control for the survival of the Kim family regime. We must update our alliance assumptions about the nature and objectives of the regime.

 

10. Rocky Seoul-Tokyo ties expected to continue in Biden era

Korea Herald · Ahn Sung-mi · February 1, 2021

Unfortunately, I think the headline assessment is correct. The only way we will see a reduction in the friction is if Moon and Suga exercise courageous political leadership and pledge to put national security and national security ahead of the historical issues. They have to rise above their domestic politics and put the good of their nations first.

 

11. Biden should ditch these flawed assumptions about North Korea

Los Angeles Daily News · Daniel Depetris · February 1, 2021

I absolutely agree that strategic assumptions must be examined and reassessed and tested and updated when facts are learned. I think Mr. Depetris should emphasize that the ROKG assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime need to be re-evaluated and that there needs to be sufficient alignment between ROK and US strategic assumptions about the North.

However, I would take some issue with his analysis. To follow the critique of his first assumption to its conclusion means that we have to accept North Korea as a nuclear power and that there is no way we can achieve denuclearization. I find that flawed, because working to solve the "Korea question" will not only denuclearize the North. It will end the human rights abuses and the crimes against humanity begging commented against the Korean people in the North.

I also do not think any serious student of North Korea thinks Kim Jong-Un is unhinged. I think Biden's Korea team understands the nature of the Kim family regime (as much as any student of the North can) and will not recommend dealing with Kim as if he is irrational and unhinged. Kim is following his family playbook and following in his father's and grandfather's shoes.

I also do not think the Biden team thinks that economic pressure will cause Kim to denuclearize. We need to enforce sanctions to limit nuclear and missile development, proliferation, illicit activities and human rights abuses. Kim must be held accountable for malign actions, but I think Biden's Korea team knows the history of North Korean resilience and that, despite the terrible amount of suffering they impose (which are due more to Kim policies than to the sanctions themselves) sanctions alone will not cause Kim to denuclearize.

I find the analysis of all three of Mr. Depetris's assumptions not to be based in fact or understanding of the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime or the likely knowledge and recommendations that will be put forth by Biden's Korea team.

The bottom line is I don't think these three assumptions belong to the Biden team.

 

12. USD-KPW exchange rate begins climbing amid hopes for restart in trade

Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · February 1, 2021

Kim cannot allow these draconian population and resources control measures to continue for too long.  But part of his measures is to get control of foreign currency. If the exchange rates are climbing, it must mean the population is still using foreign currency.

 

13. New virus cases at over 2-month low amid extended curbs (South Korea)

Yonhap News Agency · 이민지 · February 1, 2021

 

14. 14 USFK-affiliated people test positive for COVID-19

Yonhap News Agency · 최수향 · February 1, 2021

 

15. Moon urges no more ‘regressive’ politics amid controversy over alleged N. Korea power plant plan

Yonhap News Agency · 이치동 · February 1, 2021

I don't think South Koran domestic politics are going to calm down any time soon.

 

16. No way out

Korea Times · John Burton · February 1, 2021

Humanitarian assistance is not a carrot for the Kim family regime. It will not bring the North to the negotiating table.  And Kim has shown in recent years and months he is unwilling to accept offers from the US and the ROK.

But as the experts show Kim is more concerned with the threat from he Korean people in the North than he is about their welfare.

 

"A man is morally free when, in full possession of his living humanity, he judges the world, and judges other men, with uncompromising sincerity."

- George Santayana

“Take the civil service out of government and the country will collapse. Take politics out of government and the country will flourish.”

- Abhijit Naskar

“To change a political system, the majority of the thinking citizens must unite, speak with one voice, and stand firm like one leg.”

- Dr. Ahmed Padia Binkatabana

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Biden Faces the World: 5 Foreign Policy Priorities for the New Administration

2. Opinion | Biden's Nightmare May Be China

3. Government 'SWAT Team' Is Reviewing Past Startup Deals Tied to Chinese Investors

4. Why Are There No Biographies of Xi Jinping?

5. Putin May Cripple the US's Strongest Voice in Russia

6. Chief of General Staff Gerasimov Takes Over Russia's Academy of Military Sciences: What to Expect From Russian Planning for Future Warfare?

7. Joe Biden's cabinet: What you need to know about the President's key advisers and their top priorities

8. American Universities Declare War on Military History

9. 'Biden will not be Obama 2.0': TaiwanThinktank scholar

10. How China is beating the US in geopolitical board game

11. To take on China, US must get its own house in order: National Security Adviser

12. Biden plans first major foreign policy speech on restoring 'America's place'

13. Ohio Army National Guard chaplain accused Joint Chiefs of sedition

14. Unwelcome On Facebook, Twitter, QAnon Followers Flock To Fringe Sites

15. Pentagon Advisory Boards Need to Offer 10X Ideas, Not 10% Ones

16. The GameStop bubble isn't a revolt against Wall Street

17. 'Be ready to fight': FBI probe of U.S. Capitol riot finds evidence detailing coordination of an assault

18. The Taliban says they won the war in Afghanistan. They are not wrong

19. The Role of retired Senior Officers

20. Republican Ties to Extremist Groups Are Under Scrutiny

 

1. Biden Faces the World: 5 Foreign Policy Priorities for the New Administration

The National Interest · by Muqtedar Khan · January 31, 2021

Four continents/regions and China.  China gets its own separate billing.  Everything else is lumped into regions. 

But as the author notes, domestic crises will keep the administration focused on the homeland first.

 

2. Opinion | Biden's Nightmare May Be China

The New York Times · by Nicholas Kristof · January 30, 2021

Excerpts:

"We learned with the Soviet Union how to keep the Cold War cold," noted David Shambaugh, a George Washington University scholar and author of several excellent books on U.S.-China relations. He suggests dusting off the Cold War toolbox to see whether arms control agreements, hotlines and military-to-military consultations can lower temperatures.

"We're in really dangerous waters now," Shambaugh noted.

 

3. Government 'SWAT Team' Is Reviewing Past Startup Deals Tied to Chinese Investors

WSJ · by Heather Somerville

You have to appreciate the analogies we employ to describe our actions.  Now we have "SWAT teams" looking at business deals.

 

4. Why Are There No Biographies of Xi Jinping?

The Atlantic · by Jeffrey Wasserstrom · January 30, 2021

Very interesting question.  Publishing Houses should take this as a proposal and contract with Professor Wasserstrom to write Xi's biography.  Of course, it will be hard for him to obtain the necessary access.

Excerpts:

In a well-stocked bookstore, you can find multiple biographies of Putin, one of Kim that came out in 2019 and another published in 2020, plus ones of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. If your goal was to buy a comparable volume about the life of the most powerful leader China has had in decades-a person, moreover, who is by some measures the most powerful individual in the world-you would come up empty.

There are, of course, books about Xi. They are just not substantive and careful biographies, falling instead into one of three other categories: Chinese-language hagiographies published for domestic consumption; gossipy and lightly sourced volumes, again in Chinese, in a secret-lives-of-emperors vein, which cannot be sold on the mainland; and works in various languages that have Xi's name on their covers but are not devoted to describing and assessing his life. There have been only a few notable deep-dive article-length profiles and podcast episodes on the Chinese leader. Even though they shed light on important parts of Xi's life and personality, it is striking that there are just a handful of works worth mentioning, given how much power he has wielded for close to a decade.

Conclusion: But for a country that is in some ways, as Yan put it, reminiscent of both North Korea and the United States, and seems to be simultaneously sliding backward and surging forward, it will not work to think of Xi as either a completely novel figure or a straightforward throwback. It is high time to have a better sense than we do-even if it is no easy matter to figure out how to do it-of what makes the autocratic, muscular nationalist, order-obsessed strongman in charge of China tick.

 

5. Putin May Cripple the US's Strongest Voice in Russia

jamestown.org · by Thomas Kent · January 25, 2021

Certainly an indicator of the effectiveness of VOA and RFE/RL.  

Important excerpts:

However, retaliation against RT and Sputnik in the United States would bring claims of censorship, not only from the right- and left-wing US audiences the two outlets have cultivated but from advocates of free media. Russian nationals working at the networks could be expelled, but many of the outlets' staff are US citizens. Cable companies might also resist government attempts to control their offerings.

Shutting down RT and Sputnik might not even hurt Russia much. After years of perfecting other overt and covert ways to manipulate segments of US audiences (see Hot Issues, August 13, 2014), Russia may be willing to sacrifice its marquee outlets as the price for shutting down RFE/RL at home.

If RFE/RL's bureau should ultimately be forced to close, Congress would still have an option: sharply bolstering the media company to retain its Russian audience. RFE/RL is skilled at gathering and verifying news at a distance; it is a trusted source of local news in Iran, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and other countries where its bureaus are barred. Increased Congressional funding could support additional staff as well as the opening of new RFE/RL offices on Russia's periphery. Help may also be needed from technology firms and other US agencies if Russia tries to block it on the internet. (RFE/RL stopped shortwave broadcasts to Russia in 2016, since few Russians still have shortwave radios.)

I would never shut down RT or Sputnik. I would hope US media would take advantage of the opportunity to expose Russian information and propaganda strategies and compare the differences between Russian propaganda and the real news operations of USAGM's VOA/RFE/RL/RFA.  RT and Sputnik provide us insights into the Russian's propaganda messaging and they should not be able to influence critical thinking Americans who have access to free and open information.

 

6. Chief of General Staff Gerasimov Takes Over Russia's Academy of Military Sciences: What to Expect From Russian Planning for Future Warfare?

jamestown.org · by Roger McDermott · January 27, 2021

Very interesting development.  Since he is not giving up his current position and this is in addition to it, is this an indication as to how important professional military education and doctrine development is to the Russian military?  Could we imagine General Milley becoming the president of NDU while simultaneously being the CJCS?

But it is interesting that he had to "campaign" for the position:

Excerpt: In campaigning for the presidency of the AVN, Gerasimov argued that the institution should become "a large all-Russian military scientific center, contributing to the solution of priority geopolitical, military-strategic, military-economic and innovation-technological problems in the interests of defense of the country." Nonetheless, according to Oleg Falichev, writing in Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, under Gerasimov's presidency the AVN will probably continue to focus on conducting "fundamental, exploratory and applied scientific research on topical problems of military art, military organizational development and organizational development of the Armed Forces, military command and control, the development of weapons and military equipment, and military history" (Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, January 19, 2021).

 

7. Joe Biden's cabinet: What you need to know about the President's key advisers and their top priorities

https://fortune.com/2021/01/31/who-is-in-biden-cabinet-antony-blinken-janet-yellen-merrick-garland-gina-raimondo-xavier-becerra-pete-buttigieg-marcia-fudge/ - by Nicole Goodkind

Yes, the first rule of management is delegation and personnel is policy.  A useful overview of the cabinet.

 

8. American Universities Declare War on Military History

Bloomberg · by Max Hastings · January 31, 2021

Those who fail to learn from history... no need to finishes Santayna's famous quote.

Any national security practitioner must know and understand military history. 

As I have written the core for all professional military education should be the following curriculum topics.  I think this has application for national security practitioners more broadly.

1. Military History

2. Military Theory

3. Military Geography

4. Operational Art

5. Strategy

 

9. 'Biden will not be Obama 2.0': TaiwanThinktank scholar

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4116305 - by Kelvin Chen – 31 January 2021

I think this is pretty clear. And I think the Taiwanese see this more than most of our friends, partners, and allies.

 

10. How China is beating the US in geopolitical board game

https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters/article/3119753/how-china-beating-us-geopolitical-board-game

Weiqi (or Go or in Korean, Paduk) is a most difficult game.  I play it often on my computer and phone and I have never beat the computer (despite with handicaps!). 

But we might learn a lot by visualizing One Belt One Road (OBOR) or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as if on a Go board.

 

11. To take on China, US must get its own house in order: National Security Adviser

straitstimes.com · by Charissa Yong · January 31, 2021

Excerpts:

"Step one... is to refurbish the fundamental foundations of our democracy. That goes for everything from our democratic system itself to issues of racial inequity, economic inequality - all of the things that have contributed to the shine coming off the American model over the course of time," he said.

Second, America has to move in lockstep with democratic allies and partners, he added.

Mr Sullivan said the Biden administration will build on the Quad - the informal grouping of the US, Australia, India and Japan - and sees it as "foundation upon which to build substantial American policy in the Indo-Pacific region".

Third, America has to make sure it leads the world in key technologies of the future, by working with other countries and making aggressive public investments at home to stay on the cutting edge, he said.

Lastly, the US has to be prepared to impose costs on China for its policies in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and the "bellicosity of threats it is projecting towards Taiwan", Mr Sullivan added.

 

12. Biden plans first major foreign policy speech on restoring 'America's place'

CNN · by Kevin Liptak

We will be watching and listening for insights as to the way ahead:

While his speech is not expected to outline in detail the specifics of a new strategy on China, Iran, North Korea, Russia or other US adversaries, he will seek to frame his foreign policy around shoring up alliances and returning to multilateralism after the Trump administration, which was marked by unilateral actions and disdain for traditional diplomacy.

 

13. Ohio Army National Guard chaplain accused Joint Chiefs of sedition

Stars and Stripes

Wow.  From a Chaplain.

 

14. Unwelcome On Facebook, Twitter, QAnon Followers Flock To Fringe Sites

NPR · by Shannon Bond · January 31, 2021

I have seen a large exodus on the social media pages I observe.

 

15.  Pentagon Advisory Boards Need to Offer 10X Ideas, Not 10% Ones

defenseone.com · by Steve Blank, Raj Shah, and Joe Felter

From three brilliant strategic thinkers.

Excerpts:

Once the new members are in place, DoD should ask for big and bold ideas in several key areas, including:

* Technology and innovation: Given finite budgets, how best to evaluate, choose, and scale a plethora of new technologies and new operational concepts?

* Business practices: Examine and explore entirely new ways of building commercial partnerships and influencing the private sector.

* Policy: Ensure we understand our adversaries and how they are fusing together military, economic, and private markets to challenge us.

 

16. The GameStop bubble isn't a revolt against Wall Street

Quartz · by Tim Fernholz

Excerpts:

After some brokerages suspended trading in GameStop and other hot stocks, conspiracy theories quickly spread that "suits" intervened to keep small investors from playing the market. Some populist politicians joined the conspiratorial social media pile-on. The more prosaic reality is that online brokers swamped in new business had to raise money to meet capital requirements, imposed by regulators to protect investors of all stripes.

Populism this ain't. Occupy Wall Street did not speak with a single voice, but after the 2008 financial crisis, the "99%" were clearly fed up with speculation. Some of demands that emerged from that movement included universal basic income, debt relief-and a financial transactions tax to curb short-term investing. A decade later, is the dream really unfettered access to leveraged options trades?

Make no mistake: The "suits" would love to see that pivot-some call it neoliberalism.

 

17. 'Be ready to fight': FBI probe of U.S. Capitol riot finds evidence detailing coordination of an assault

The Washington Post – by Delvin Barrett, Spencer S. Hsu, and Aaron C. Davis - January 30, 2021

The more video that I see the more I see elements of planning and command and control despite the obvious chaos and appearance of a "leaderless" insurrection.

 

18. The Taliban says they won the war in Afghanistan. They are not wrong

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · January 30, 2021

Jeff Schogol offers a blunt critique.

Conclusion:

The hard truth is this: The United States has made clear it will eventually leave Afghanistan. Even if the U.S. military keeps a counter-terrorism force in the country beyond May, there is no way to separate fighting Al Qaeda from fighting the Taliban because they remain brothers in arms.

In other words, the U.S. military is trapped in Afghanistan and the Taliban know they just need to wait us out. To cite an overused cliché: We've got the watches; they've got the time.

That's why the Taliban have won.

 

19. The Role of retired Senior Officers

warroom.armywarcollege.edu · by Jeffrey E. Baker · January 29, 2021

Important food for thought.

 

20. Republican Ties to Extremist Groups Are Under Scrutiny

The New York Times · by Luke Broadwater and Matthew Rosenberg · January 29, 2021

This is going to get really ugly for our politics.  I can think of all kinds of scenarios emanating from this. None of them are good.

 

 

"Discourse and critical thinking are essential tools when it comes to securing progress in a democratic society. But in the end, unity and engaged participation are what make it happen."

- Aberjhani, Splendid Literarium: A Treasury of Stories, Aphorisms, Poems, and Essays

 

"To vastly improve your country and truly make it great again, start by choosing a better leader. Do not let the media or the establishment make you pick from the people they choose, but instead choose from those they do not pick."

- Suzy Kassem, Rise Up and Salute the Sun: The Writings of Suzy Kassem

 

"Government is a system of morality developed by philosophers and refined by mercenaries."

- Alex Stein

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. N.K. envoy says strengthening of defense capabilities aimed at opening peace era

2. Gyeonggi governor asks U.S., UN for understanding (on ROK anti-leaflet law)

3. Hearing on Seoul's leaflet ban to open soon: US congressman

4. PPP wants probe of nuke plant for North allegation

5. 4 U.S. B-52H bombers deployed to Guam

6. Kim Jong-un's wife has now not been seen in public for more than a year

7. Pressure vs. Dialogue: What North Korea Policy Will Biden Pick?

8. In photos: The life of a North Korean defector

9. To Succeed on North Korea, Convince Kim He is Safer Without Nukes

10. South Korea in final stage of assembling first prototype of indigenous fighter jet

11. New virus cases dip below 400, tougher virus curbs extended

12. America's North Korea Strategy Has Failed. What Will Biden Do?

13. Microsoft Believes DPRK-Linked Hackers Used Chrome Zero-Day

14. Judge Rejects Virgil Griffith's Motion to Dismiss Charges of Aiding North Korea

15. Complaints over noise in S. Korea spike amid Covid-19

 

1. N.K. envoy says strengthening of defense capabilities aimed at opening peace era

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 29, 2021

Peace through strength.  They are finally paying attention to Ronald Reagan.  

On a serious note,, this is something we very much need to pay attention to.  If there was to be an end of war declaration or some kind of peace regime we would still have the 4th largest army in the world postured offensively along the DMZ posing an existential threat to the ROK.  These kinds of statements indicate there would be no confidence building measures or reductions in force posture along the DMZ.  While the Moon administration and many progressives in the South would be rejoicing at the realization of Moon's peace and reconciliation vision, the Kim family regime would e rejoicing because of the success of its political warfare strategy and the advantage it has provided the north to reach its objective which is to dominate the South and the bring the rule of the entire peninsula under the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

2. Gyeonggi governor asks U.S., UN for understanding (on ROK anti-leaflet law)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

As much as I disagree with the law and think it is a major strategic national security mistake, I think it is important to examine the ROK rationale.

First and foremost, this seems to be about a "threat to life' and "threat to property."  There are 1.12 million South Korean residents near the DMZ.  Some of them have also consistently called for a stop to leaflet drops since the North Korean firing of anti-aircraft rounds in 2014 to shoot down balloons carrying leaflets.  The 2014 incident is one of the only incidents I recall where this has happened.  I do not think there has ever been any loss of life due to leaflet operations.  But as I have said the way to protect citizens and property is not through appeasement of the north which will only invite more threats and blackmail diplomacy from the Kim family regime.

The Moon administration defends its human rights approach by arguing along these lines: Every year, the ROK government formulates plans to promote North Korean human rights and is making multi-faceted efforts policy-wise to resolve humanitarian issues involving separated families, South Korean prisoners of war, and abductees and to raise public awareness about the importance of improving human rights conditions in North Korea.  Color me skeptical.

The Moon administration also makes the case the leaflet law is in keeping with agreements between the South and north.  They have repeatedly agreed to stop mutual slander and defamation and ban the scattering of leaflets, starting from the July 4 South-North Korea Joint Statement (1972) to the Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation Between the South and the North (1991) and to the Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity, and Unification of the Korean Peninsula (2018).  I respect the ROK for trying to maintain the moral high ground here and they could do this by helping the escapees to take a more professional and sophisticated approach to information and influence.  There is no need to slander and defame Kim Jong-un and Kim Yo-jong.  All they need to do is simply provide information and news, and the truth.  There is no need for insults and derogatory attacks against the north. In fact one of the most powerful propaganda tools employed lately was the Netflix K-drama "Crash landing On You" that portrayed the north Korean People's Army soldiers as human beings and not ugly automatons and monsters.  According to escapees one of the reasons for its powerful positive influence in the north was because of that and when I asked former north Korea soldiers how they thought current north Korean soldiers are reacting to the K-drama they said they desire to come to the South even more than did before.

The Moon administration compares their actions to US actions and legal rulings. While guaranteeing the full exercise of freedom of expression as stipulated in the Constitution of the ROK, the amendment (law) puts limitations to the minimum extent necessary to protect people's lives and safety and in a way that also conforms to the U.S. Supreme Court rulings.  They will cite Ward v. Rock Against Racism (1989): The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that restrictions of freedom of expression are permissible so long as they are without reference to the content of the regulated speech, narrowly tailored to serve a significant governmental interest, and leave open ample alternative channels for communication of the information.  I am far from a legal scholar and while this may hold water legally I still think despite the apparent legality it is a strategic national security error because it is appeasing north Korean demands based on threats -it is giving in to coercion/extortion or blackmail diplomacy. And Kim Yo-jong and her brother andteh regime should be expected to double down on its blackmail diplomacy to support its political warfare strategy.

In addition, the ROK government argues the amendment does not run counter to the U.S. Government's human rights policies that seek to enhance access to information for people living in repressed societies such as a socialist state.  The ROK Government argues is of the same view that it is important that North Koreans have access to information and that it is necessary to bring about positive changes to North Korean society by promoting it. Korea is also striving to have external information flow into the North in various ways - for instance, Korea's public broadcaster KBS is running 'Korean National (Hanminjok) AM Radio' channel transmitted to the North. The ROK government also argues Ø we should consider the fact that, even without leaflet drops, the North Korean society can already easily access South Korean TV series and movies through 6 million-plus mobile phones, 400-plus street markets (known as Jangmadang), and information exchanges in areas bordering China. Fundamentally the ROK government argues it is their basic position that it is more effective to create conditions for North Koreans to be naturally exposed to South Korean culture and information through inter-Korean movements and interactions rather than to send anti-North Korean leaflets that have various side effects.  I do strongly agree with the ROK Government's basic position that it is more effective to create conditions for North Koreans to be naturally exposed to South Korean culture and information through inter-Korean movements and interactions rather than to send anti-North Korean leaflets that have various side effects. However, I would also argue that the ROK government (with the help of the US and escapees from the north) must aggressively embrace their responsibility to get information into the north and use all means available to do so, despite north Korean regime opposition. And the ROK government could help the escapees with their messaging and shift from the blatant anti-north Korea  derogatory and insulting rhetoric to more effective messaging.  We shouldn't be throwing the baby out with the bathwater. There is too much good being done by the escapees and they could do much more with government and international help.

The answer to this issue is not to pass a law banning leaflets.  it would be for the ROK, with US support, to adopt a sophisticated and holistic approach to information and influence activities.  They should help the escapees with their mission and give them support and advise them on how to shape their activities to maintain the moral high ground and act in keeping with north-South agreements.  They would maintain the human rights high ground by helping the Korean people in the north gain access to information that is denied by the regime.

Here are the recommendations my colleague Mathew Ha and I made in our Plan B strategy for north Korea (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/)

 

The United States and South Korea should implement a comprehensive and aggressive IIA campaign in North Korea. The focus should be three-fold: create internal threats against the regime from among the elite, provide the second-tier leadership with alternative paths to survival, and prepare the Korean people for eventual unification under a United Republic of Korea. To do so, we recommend the following steps:

• Develop organizational infrastructure to facilitate IIA: The United States and South Korea lack a single organization to direct IIA against North Korea. Washington and Seoul should establish institutions that would work together to plan and shape combined IIA. Fortunately, as discussed earlier, the United States already has numerous tools at its disposal, such as the State Department's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor; Voice of America; and Radio Free Asia. The United States should centralize these activities under an oversight organization. This organization would coordinate all agencies and departments and work with non-government organizations.
  Under the Moon administration, there will likely be concerns that IIA could upset diplomatic conditions. Admittedly, an IIA campaign targeting Pyongyang could risk stirring additional short-term tensions with Pyongyang. But U.S. diplomats should remind their ROK counterparts that those tensions may ultimately forge a path to the peaceful denuclearization of North Korea. U.S. diplomats also need to remind their South Korean allies that Seoul's persistent use of concessions has not elicited progress with Pyongyang.

• Encourage Moon's government to increase intra-Korean people-to-people exchanges: Washington should encourage intra-Korean engagement by sponsoring people-to-people educational and cultural exchanges. Such exchanges could expose North Korea's intelligentsia and emerging elites to democratic concepts as well as personal relationships with South Koreans.241
• Implement aggressive IIA targeting the North Korea regime: After building a baseline consensus, the United States and South Korea should implement increasingly aggressive IIA targeting the North Korean regime. These activities should inform North Koreans of their universal human rights and civil liberties that the regime is failing to respect. This will undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime and give hope to the people living in the North. Alternate sources of information can put regime propaganda in perspective.
  This campaign could also help lay the initial groundwork for emergent leaders who could replace Kim and who might seek to unify with the South as equal partners under the values of individual liberty and freedom, liberal democracy, and a free market economy. At a minimum, this campaign could help persuade Kim that the status quo poses a greater threat than good faith negotiations with the United States and South Korea. The ultimate goal is to create internal divisions and threats that will influence Kim to denuclearize.
• Increase exposure of North Koreans to the outside world: IIA must exploit North Koreans' growing access to DVDs, USB drives, and smart phones from outside the country.242 These media devices can carry content popular among North Koreans, such as South Korean dramas, which can implicitly help Koreans in the North better understand the difference between the regime they have and the government they deserve.243
• Establish a Korea Defector Information Institute (KDII): There is no single organization in the United States or South Korea that harnesses the information of defectors to support IIA. If both nations worked together to establish a KDII, it could serve as a repository for defector information to inform policymakers, strategists, and those responsible for developing IIA themes and messages. This institute should utilize defector knowledge and advice in devising appropriate messages and communications techniques. It could also encourage North Koreans to defect, particularly members of Office 39 (also known as Department 39), who are knowledgeable of the Kim family regime's finances.
• Provide military support to ROK-U.S. government programs for IIA: S. Psychological Operations (PSYOP) forces should be deployed on a permanent basis to support ROK PSYOP forces as part of a national-level alliance IIA campaign. ROK and U.S. PSYOP forces should advise and assist defector organizations to synchronize themes, messages, and dissemination methods to ensure unity of effort.

 

3. Hearing on Seoul's leaflet ban to open soon: US congressman

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · January 31, 2021

Note Josh Stanton's legal assessment on the ROK government comparing their law to US legal rulings.

 

Critics also dispute past cases that the government has cited as precedents for the ban.

"There was a Supreme Court ruling (favoring a ban) in 2016. But the court was not speaking of an outright ban on leafleting. It discussed adding rules on the leaflets' content or distribution, which is nothing like the complete ban we see now," said Chang Young-soo, a professor of constitutional law at Korea University.

Joshua Stanton, a Washington-based lawyer who served as a member of the US Army Judge Advocate General's Corps in Korea from 1998 to 2002, said Seoul's interpretation of an American law on censorship was wrong.

"The Blue House cites Schenck, a century-old decision allowing authoritarian wartime censorship of anti-draft speech. Schenck is one of the most discredited decisions in American legal history. ... The Supreme Court finally overturned it in 1969."

 

4. PPP wants probe of nuke plant for North allegation

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

PPP= People Power Party. (not the paycheck protection program).

Excerpts:

Joo Ho-young, the floor leader of the PPP, urged in a Facebook post Sunday that President Moon address the North Korea nuclear power plant allegation, adding that if such an explanation is not made, "the truth must be revealed through a special probe and a parliamentary inspection."

He asked, "What is the idea, trying to shut down nuclear power plants in South Korea and build a nuclear power plant in the North?"

Broadcaster SBS first reported last Thursday evening that the deleted Energy Ministry documents recovered by prosecutors included files on a North Korea nuclear power plant construction plan.

Among the 530 documents deleted in December 2019, restored by prosecution, there were reportedly 17 files concerning North Korea created in 2018. Those documents were stored inside a folder entitled "60 pohjois." Pohjois is a Finnish world for North.

 

5. 4 U.S. B-52H bombers deployed to Guam

en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · January 31, 2021

The South Korean press keeps close tabs on the deployment of US strategic assets.

We should call the B-52 the "reinforcer."  As in "These strategic deterrence missions reinforce the rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific region," We should think about how the B-52 reinforces the rules-based international order.

 

6. Kim Jong-un's wife has now not been seen in public for more than a year

dailystar.co.uk · by Joshua Smith · January 30, 2021

Hmmm...  I wonder which analyst has responsibility for tracking her.  Must have been tough for the last year at intelligence updates.  "Nope. Still no sign of her.  I don't know where she is or what has appended to her."

The buried lede is KJU's son who may be 11 years old.  How old will he have to be to become a boy king to succeed his father?  What will be the impact on succession and Kim Yo-jong (KJU's sister)?

 

7.  Pressure vs. Dialogue: What North Korea Policy Will Biden Pick?

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · January 30, 2021

Why do the pundits always make this a binary choice?  Why can't we think both/and rather than either/or.    Our both/and proposal based on realistic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime is here.  It is  Plan B for north Korean strategy.  https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/

I would be cautious about this conclusion.  Seoul must be well aware the Biden administration's priorities must be on US domestic issues: COVID and the US economy, but that does not mean that the administration's Korea team will not be working hard on the strategy review and developing new policy and strategy for north Korea.  I can guarantee they have a sense of urgency.

Conclusion: Just as importantly for Seoul, will the Biden administration approach North Korea with a sense of urgency? Or will the country be a secondary priority? All evidence so far points to the latter.

 

8. In photos: The life of a North Korean defector

By Jeon Heon-Kyun

A dozen photos at the link.  I think this conclusion is something we should all reflect upon and respect:  "After almost 10 years in South Korea, he is satisfied that he sacrificed his 53 years, including his military career, of life in North Korea now that he and his family can enjoy the happiness of leading life in a free country."

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/photography/north-korean-defector-south-korea-b1794009.html

 

9. To Succeed on North Korea, Convince Kim He is Safer Without Nukes

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · January 30, 2021

We make a similar argument in our Plan B recommended strategy here:

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/

However, we argue that it is only a threat from - the elite and the military - that may cause Kim to consider denuclearizaing. Kim raised (unrealistic) expectations) in 12018 that he could play Trump and moon and get sanctions relief from both while keeping his nuclear program. He has failed to get sanctions relief and this has undermined his legitimacy among the elite and the military. escapees tell me this is the biggest failure in the Kim family regime by any of the Three Kims. If he is unable to "play" the Biden administration (which I do not think he will be able to do successfully) the internal pressure will grow and he will be faced with internal threats.  It is this kind of internal pressure that has the best chance of changing Kim's calculus.  If we appease Kim or give him concessions with sanctions relief he will judge his political warfare strategy successful, he will have the support of the elite and the military and he will double down on his strategy to achieve domination of the peninsula.

 

10. South Korea in final stage of assembling first prototype of indigenous fighter jet

The Korea Times · January 31, 2021

 

11. New virus cases dip below 400, tougher virus curbs extended

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · January 31, 2021

 

12. America's North Korea Strategy Has Failed. What Will Biden Do?

The National Interest · by Hazel Smith · January 31, 2021

So, Professor Smith thinks appeasement will work.  How about executing a superior political warfare strategy with a long-term objective of solving the "Korea question?"

I think the same argument can be made against an appeasement strategy as she makes against a pressure strategy in her conclusion.  Her strategy is one based on hope over experience.  We have seen what happened with the 10 years of the Sunshine Policy and the Peace and Prosperity Policies of the Kim and Roh administrations as well as the peace at any cost vision of the current Moon Administration.

Conclusion: In the end, the Biden administration can keep doing what every other administration has done since George W. Bush in the expectation that hope will triumph over experience. Or it can ditch the clichés and get real in dealing with North Korea.

 

13. Microsoft Believes DPRK-Linked Hackers Used Chrome Zero-Day

MakeUseOf · by Gavin Phillips · January 31, 2021

Beware the Kim family regime's "all purpose sword" of cyber.

 

14. Judge Rejects Virgil Griffith's Motion to Dismiss Charges of Aiding North Korea

CoinDesk · by Muyao Shen · January 30, 2021

Excerpts:

Griffith's team has argued that first amendment rights protected him and that he did not render North Korea "services" since he received no compensation for the speech.

"The failure to allege that Griffith was paid a fee by the DPRK does not render the indictment defective," Castel wrote. "The indictment alleges an object of the conspiracy was 'to provide services to the DPRK.' This is sufficient and encompasses the provision of useful labor or human effort whether or not compensation was contemplated."

The U.S. State Department banned all U.S. citizens from traveling to North Korea without express permission in 2017. According to today's ruling, Griffith's request was initially rejected by the State Department, but later granted by the DRPK UN mission in Manhattan after he sent copies of his CV, passport, and explained his desire to attend the conference.

 

15. Complaints over noise in S. Korea spike amid Covid-19

straitstimes.com · by Chang May Choon · January 31, 2021

COVID is changing so many lives in so many ways - some of course worse than others.

 

 

"Discourse and critical thinking are essential tools when it comes to securing progress in a democratic society. But in the end, unity and engaged participation are what make it happen."

- Aberjhani, Splendid Literarium: A Treasury of Stories, Aphorisms, Poems, and Essays

 

"To vastly improve your country and truly make it great again, start by choosing a better leader. Do not let the media or the establishment make you pick from the people they choose, but instead choose from those they do not pick."

- Suzy Kassem, Rise Up and Salute the Sun: The Writings of Suzy Kassem

 

"Government is a system of morality developed by philosophers and refined by mercenaries."

- Alex Stein

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Ruling Party Membership No Longer Automatic for North Korean Soldiers

2. North Korean magazine depicts an upbeat 2020 unlike elsewhere

3. Personnel moves offer hints to Biden's approach to North Korea

4. Biden and both Koreas

5. Controversy erupts over Seoul's possible push to build nuke plant in North Korea

6. The nuclear elephant in the room: To restrain or disarm?

7. Kim Jong Un's true intentions were revealed through the anti-reactionary thought law

8. South Korea, US set to move closer under Joe Biden, but China has concerns

9. Japan's role to increase in North Korean denuclearization in Biden era

10. Incidents at sea highlight tension between North and South Korea

11. South Korea Shows OECD How It's Done In Covid-19 Era

12. South Korea's COVID Success Stems From an Earlier Infectious Disease Failure

13. North Korean Defectors Explain Just How Popular BTS Is In North Korea

14. No need to hurry in regaining OPCON

 

1. Ruling Party Membership No Longer Automatic for North Korean Soldiers

rfa.org

Most of the military and security services actually fall into Songbun's wavering class.

Excerpts:

"According to the Supreme Commander's order, the new standard is to bolster party membership by first accepting soldiers from basic combat units, including from ships, guard posts and infantry deployed in the front lines," the source said, clarifying that this meant soldiers stationed near the military demarcation line that separates North and South Korea since the 1953 Korean War Armistice.

"It is likely that membership opportunities will greatly decrease for soldiers in non-combat units or those stationed in the rear," the source said.

Screening for potential members from the military's ranks will also be more comprehensive, according to the source.

"Candidates are to be carefully selected by thoroughly reviewing their levels of faithfulness to the party, how well they performed their military tasks, including combat and political training, and any other 'exemplary activities' in building a strong state," said the source.

 

2. North Korean magazine depicts an upbeat 2020 unlike elsewhere

asahi.com – by Takeshi Kamiya – 28 January 2021

There is no propaganda like north Korean propaganda.

Excerpts:

The Korean-language magazine also offers insight on what North Korean authorities apparently chose not to show.

Amid a plethora of images of rebuilding from natural disasters and military parades, a mere single page is dedicated to the COVID-19 pandemic and features scenes of infection control efforts at a zoo, railway facilities and elsewhere.

Yet oddly it stands out due to its lack of a reference to novel coronavirus countermeasures.

Pyongyang maintains that no one has yet been infected with the novel coronavirus in North Korea.

The magazine, bearing the imprint of the Foreign Languages Publishing House, was likely produced as propaganda for North Korea's achievements primarily targeted at those living outside the country with an interest in affairs of the Korean Peninsula.

 

3. Personnel moves offer hints to Biden's approach to North Korea

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

Personnel is policy.

 

4.  Biden and both Koreas

m.lasvegassun.com · by Donald Kirk · January 30, 2021

Yes, here are a number of alliance issues that must be resolved.

In the interests of a smooth relationship with Biden, Moon will endorse the U.S.-Korean alliance. Questions, however, surround OPCON, giving South Korean operational control of forces in the event of war. It's not clear whether South Korean and U.S. forces are capable of coordinating smoothly under OPCON in a real-time emergency. They need to test their capabilities in intricate joint exercises that infuriate the North Koreans.

At the same time, the U.S. and South Korea have to resolve contentious negotiations on the South's contribution to the cost of keeping U.S. bases and 28,500 U.S. troops in the country. Trump badly upset the alliance by demanding South Korea pay $5 billion a year, more than five times the $927 million paid last year. Biden's team will be looking for agreement on slightly more than $1 billion.

Trump as president left many difficult issues for Biden to settle. After all his big talk, his showmanship, his dream of a Nobel peace prize, North Korea remains a de facto nuclear power holding nukes and missiles like a club over South Korea, Japan and the U.S. If there is reason for hope, it's that North Korea is too weak for Kim to be able to carry out any of the threats with which he is greeting Biden, whom he never congratulated for defeating his friend Trump in November's presidential election.

 

5.  Controversy erupts over Seoul's possible push to build nuke plant in North Korea

The Korea Times · January 29, 2021

Hmmm..... admit nothing, deny everything, and make counter accusations:

"(The existence of the deleted documents) has been wrongly interpreted with regard to the government's intentions. That's not true," a ministry official said. "The previous Park Geun-hye government also examined various inter-Korean energy cooperation plans in preparation for unification," the official argued.

 

6. The nuclear elephant in the room: To restrain or disarm?

thebulletin.org · by Rob Elder · January 29, 2021

A discussion of the arguments of the disarmament advocates and the "restrainers" and nonproliferation.

Conclusion:

The expansive foreign policy long practiced by Washington has contributed substantially to nuclear nonproliferation, a prerequisite of total nuclear disarmament. But insofar as a shift toward restraint entails deep cuts in defense spending and drawdowns from legacy commitments of US forces abroad, restrainers imperil the ambitious goal of disarmament. If Americans grow more willing to take a chance on a new grand strategy, uncertainty about the contours of a restraint-based US foreign policy will become a less convincing argument for staying the current course, and nonproliferation will likely become a lower priority in Washington. Disarmament advocates will be increasingly pressured to choose between the incompatible goals of peace and nuclear weapons abolition. The implications of their choice could hardly be greater.

 

7.  Kim Jong Un's true intentions were revealed through the anti-reactionary thought law

dailynk.com – by Mun Sun Bo - January 29, 2021

Again, not to beat the horse too much more dead, but the new DASS for EAP, Dr. Jung Pak always asks who does Kim Jong-un fear more: the US or the Korean people living in the north?  This is an obvious answer to that question.  Control over the populations (and the denial of their human rights) is of paramount importance to ensure the survival of the Kim family regime.

Excerpts:

Authors Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith pointed out in their book, The Dictator's Handbook, that a dictator is someone who hates freedom. Their reasoning is because if you allow freedom, then the people will recognize each other's suffering and easily cooperate in antigovernmental demonstrations. This same analysis can also be applied to Kim Jong Un because the people's freedom can be a threat to one's rank. If outside information gets in (to North Korea) and people become aware of freedom and human rights, then the stronghold of Kim Jong Un's dictatorship that he worked tirelessly to build will easily collapse. This is why Kim Jong Un feels the need that he must desperately block the spread of liberalism. The anti-reactionary law was formed from within this context.

The anti-reactionary law was enacted by the North Korean authorities last year on Dec. 4. at the 12th Session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly (SPA). The essence of this law is that anyone who uses, distributes, or stores any cultural content from South Korea, or other countries such as the US and Japan, could be punished with a maximum sentence of the death penalty. Daily NK obtained and released specific details of this law on Jan. 15.

 

8. South Korea, US set to move closer under Joe Biden, but China has concerns

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3119846/south-korea-us-set-move-closer-under-joe-biden-china-has – by Laura Zhou and Rachel Zhang – 30 January 2021

Korea is the shrimp among whales.

China recognizes the alliance friction with the different views toward north Korea here:

Wu Xiangning, an assistant professor at the University of Macau, said South Korea and the US had different views on how to achieve denuclearisation in North Korea and that was having a negative impact on their military alliance.

"The Moon administration wants the US to restart talks with North Korea," he said. "Over 70 per cent of South Korean people expect Biden to meet Kim Jong-un, but [the US president] made it clear he would not meet Kim unless he committed to denuclearising."

"In the meantime, the US will continue to impose sanctions on North Korea, which Moon does not want it to do as he is hoping for a peaceful unification of the peninsula and doesn't want to upset North Korea too much."

 

9. Japan's role to increase in North Korean denuclearization in Biden era

The Korea Times · January 30, 2021

As I have mentioned many times we need our linchpin and cornerstone alliances (and sufficient cooperation between the two) to be successful in addressing the challenges posed by the mafia-like crime family cult in north Korea. 

 

10. Incidents at sea highlight tension between North and South Korea

korea.stripes.com · January 30, 2021

 

11. South Korea Shows OECD How It's Done In Covid-19 Era

Forbes · by William Pesek · January 29, 2021

Some good news but with advice not to make the same mistakes as in the past.

Excerpts:

Moon, though, needs to stop making the same mistake as predecessors: putting most of his chips on the Bank of Korea. Since December, the BOK has been under pressure to expand its mandate to support growth. Fair enough. But Moon's economy would get more mileage from tax and regulatory changes that level playing fields to realize his vision for a "fair economy."

That also means clamping down on the family-owned giants known as "chaebols" to make more space for a startup boom.

It will take levels of courage Moon has yet to display to roll out new anti-trust measure to reign in powerful household names like Daewoo, Hyundai, LG, Samsung and SK.

The good news is that Moon has more than a year left to act. The even better news is that his economy is flashing optimistic signs that Seoul can harness to confound the naysayers yet again. It's kind of become Korea's brand.

 

12. South Korea's COVID Success Stems From an Earlier Infectious Disease Failure

Slate · by Jiyeon Kim · January 29, 2021

Learn, adapt, anticipate - and repeat.

Conclusion: While South Korea's specific public health measures might not be transferable to other countries, its willingness to learn from mistakes certainly is. Moreover, after the last four disastrous and shambolic years, rebuilding public trust in government is more important than ever in the United States. While the recent rollout of COVID-19 vaccines brings hope, initial distribution has been met with delays and obstacles. We failed with testing and contact tracing, yet we could have learned from these mistakes and done better with the vaccine. New, more infectious COVID-19 variants have forced the United Kingdom and other countries into national lockdowns again and are already spreading throughout the United States. While the previous administration never had a coordinated plan to control the virus, there is still a chance-and urgent need-to do better. South Korea's model offers both a blueprint of success and a reminder that a combination of good governance, good science, and public trust is the only way to effectively deal with public health crises.

 

13. North Korean Defectors Explain Just How Popular BTS Is In North Korea

koreaboo.com · January 30, 2021

One data point that we can get information into the north. The regime cannot keep it out.

 

14. No need to hurry in regaining OPCON

donga.com – 30 January 2021

Sigh.... This is why we need an IO plan for OPCON transition. There is no "regaining" OPCON by Seoul.  There is no transfer of OPCON from Washington to Seoul. When a Korean general takes command of the ROK/US CFC he will still answer equally to both countries through the Military Committee.  The US does not have OPCON of ROK forces and when the transition is complete the ROK will not have OPCON of US forces. The ROK/US CFC will exercise OPCON of both ROK and US forces (when each government decides to provide forces to the command) and the command will answer equally to both countries through the Military Committee.  The failure to explain this to the press, the politicos, the pundits, and the public will continue to cause long term friction with the transition process.

But most importantly the process is conditions based because the conditions must be met to ensure the security of the ROK. Failing to meet the conditions and still going forward with the transition has the potential to put the ROK and the people of South Korea at great risk.

 

 

"Justice is the first virtue of social institutions, as truth is of systems of thought."

- John Rawls, A Theory of Justice

 

"The illusion of free will, of freedom, is a useful tool you know. Let people think they are free and present them with a danger to their so-called freedom, a fear. It's amazing how much you can get them to deal with just as long as you tell them they're still free."

- Jordon Greene, They'll Call It Treason

 

"The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism."

- George Washington

A roundup of news, analysis, and commentary about the war in Afghanistan.

 

Including:

-A report the the U.S. Treasury Department that Al Qaeda is gaining strength in Afghanistan

-Assassination threats against Afghan Journalists

-Released Taliban prisoners being recaptured

-A net assessment of the ANSDF and the Taliban

-The beginnings of the new adminstration's approach to Afghanistan

-Updates on peace talks

 

https://sof.news/afghanistan/afghan-update-jan-2021/

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. The Longer Telegram: Toward A New American China Strategy

2. South China Sea: 'significant' strategic move Biden approved to 'reverse Obama error'

3. U.S. intelligence officials say Chinese government is collecting Americans' DNA

4. Top Navy intel officer hopes China will keep dumping money into anti-ship ballistic missiles

5. US vows to defend Philippines, including in South China Sea

6. A scathing new documentary from HBO alleges a Chinese coverup on the coronavirus

7. Drawdowns of troops in Germany and Afghanistan up in the air

8. Joe Biden is off to a weak start on foreign policy

9. Mattis takes a swipe at Trump, gives advice to new secretary of defense

10. Mattis: Trump 'fomented' Jan. 6 Capitol assault

11. Thousands of troops and DOD workers refusing COVID vaccine as cases mount

12. DOD personnel must do more to win fight against COVID-19, special advisor says

13. US defense secretary says Germany is ‘highly valued’ station for American troops

14. Inside a pro-Huawei influence campaign

15. Strengthening alliance with Japan is critical for Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy

16. Chinese warplanes simulated attacking US carrier near Taiwan

17. Lunik: inside the CIA’s audacious plot to steal a Soviet satellite

18. Facebook ad services let anyone target US military personnel

19. US congressional commission hears China may force Taiwan crisis in 2021

20. How will Biden intervene abroad?

21. Afghan conflict update - January 2021

22. These three Pacific military flashpoints could shape Biden's China strategy

23. Pentagon halts Trump appointments to advisory boards

 

1. The Longer Telegram: Toward a New American China Strategy

Atlantic Council · Anonymous · January 29, 2021

The 85-page report is at this link.

The decision to allow the author to publish anonymously is already generating criticism on social media - everything from the arrogance of the author (the comparison to Kennan) to a marketing ploy by the think tank. And, of course, it generates the speculation on who is the real author. This should keep us guessing for a while. Unfortunately, the controversy will distract from the substance, which also has been criticized by some as merely being a checklist. One comment from a good friend and scholar on social media: "Sorry, a list of ten principles does not a strategy make."

 

2. South China Sea: 'significant' strategic move Biden approved to 'reverse Obama error'

Express · Clive Hammond · January 28, 2021

 

3. U.S. intelligence officials say Chinese government is collecting Americans’ DNA

CBS News · 60 Minutes · January 28, 2021

Wow. What are the Chinese going to do with the DNA information of Americans? That is a rhetorical question. Nothing good I am sure.

 

4. Top Navy intel officer hopes China will keep dumping money into anti-ship ballistic missiles

Drive · Joseph Trevithick · January 28, 2021

Perhaps the Navy is executing some good IO and creating uncertainty for the Chinese.

I would argue that this excerpt also describes what the Chinese may have been trying to do with us - have us prepare for the wrong threat (e.g., A2AD).

 

5. US vows to defend Philippines, including in South China Sea

Nikkei Asia · Ken Moriyasu · January 29, 2021

This is a significant change.

 

6. A scathing new documentary from HBO alleges a Chinese coverup on the coronavirus

Washington Post · Steven Zeitchik · January 28, 2021

HBO has some guts. This could be a useful test case to see the Chinese response and then how a US entertainment company stands up to China.

 

7. Drawdowns of troops in Germany and Afghanistan up in the air

Military Times · Meghann Myers · January 28, 2021

The Pentagon supposedly did a global force posture review last year. What were the results and will the SECDEF do a zero-based review or work from the last assessment?

 

8. Joe Biden is off to a weak start on foreign policy

National Interest · Christian Whiton · January 28, 2021

An initial critique. This very short essay actually covers a lot of ground. He will get no pass from any quarter (especially from former Trump administration officials). :-))

 

9. Mattis takes a swipe at Trump, gives advice to new secretary of defense

Marine Corps Times · Philip Athey · January 28, 2021

He gave a great talk last evening. PME classes (at all levels from the Academies and ROTC through Senior Service Colleges) should spend an hour listening to his wisdom.

This quote is going in my quote book.  No one who believes in America and our Constitution can logically disagree with this.

 

10. Mattis: Trump ‘fomented’ Jan. 6 Capitol assault

Yahoo! News · Sean D. Naylor · January 29, 2021

 

11. Thousands of troops and DOD workers refusing COVID vaccine as cases mount

Washington Examiner · Jamie McIntyre · January 29, 2021

So, I was at the Fort Belvoir Hospital for an appointment and I spoke with a squad leader (with proper social distancing) who got vaccinated for COVID. He told me this was the first time a vaccination or a shot of any kind was voluntary (I do not recall any voluntary shorts during my time on active duty). He told me that only he and two members of his squad agreed to get vaccinated. He could not convince the other 9 members of his squad to receive. I was very surprised to hear that. I would get the vaccination in a heartbeat and, as soon as we are eligible, my wife and I will get vaccinated.

 

12. DOD personnel must do more to win fight against COVID-19, special advisor says

US Department of Defense · Jim Garamone · January 28, 2021

Again, if the military has any leftover vaccine, I am sure there are many retirees like me who would jump at the chance to receive it.

 

13. US defense secretary says Germany is ‘highly valued’ station for American troops

Military Times · Staff and Wire Report · January 29, 2021

 

14. Inside a pro-Huawei influence campaign

New York Times · Adam Satariano · January 29, 2021

Online covert action.

 

15. Strengthening alliance with Japan is critical for Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy

Real Clear Defense · Mathew Ha · January 29, 2021

From my colleague Mathew Ha.

 

16. Chinese warplanes simulated attacking US carrier near Taiwan

Financial Times · Kathrin Hille · January 29, 2021

I hope we have simulated attacking their aircraft carrier and warships as well.

 

17. Lunik: inside the CIA’s audacious plot to steal a Soviet satellite

MIT Technology Review · Jeff Maysh · January 28, 2021

History is more fascinating than fiction.

 

18. Facebook ad services let anyone target US military personnel

Wired · Lily Hay Newman · January 28, 2021

 

19. US congressional commission hears China may force Taiwan crisis in 2021

ASPI - The Strategist · Brendan Nicholson · January 29, 2021

 

20. How will Biden intervene abroad?

ASPI - The Strategist · Joseph S. Nye · January 29, 2021

Softly? Okay, that is an attempt at humor since this article is written by the "father" of the soft power concept.

But seriously, there is a lot of food for thought in this essay.

All unconventional, irregular, and political warfare strategists and practitioners would do well to study the work of Voice of America and the National Endowment of Democracies (and though not mentioned, the programs of USAID's Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance).

 

21. Afghan conflict update - January 2021

SOF News · January 29, 2021

 

22. These three Pacific military flashpoints could shape Biden's China strategy

CNN · CNN Staff · January 28, 2021

 

23. Pentagon halts Trump appointments to advisory boards

Politico · Lara Seligman · January 28, 2021

 

"You make a living by what you earn; you make a life by what you give."

- Winston Churchill

"A nationalist...is not at all the same thing as a patriot. A nationalist encourages us to be our worst, and then tells us that we are the best."

- Timothy Snyder, On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century

"Knowledge by itself is not power, but it holds the potential for power if we use it a s a guide for action. Truth will always be defeated by tyranny unless the people are willing to step forward and put their lives into the battle. The future belongs, not to ideas, but to people who act on those ideas."

- G. Edward Griffin