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01/07/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Thu, 01/07/2021 - 9:12am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Continues Report on Work of 7th Central Committee of WPK

2. Kim Jong Un Promotes Little Sister Again After Admitting His Economic Plan Is a Bust

3. S. Korean delegation departs for Iran to negotiate release of seized oil tanker

4. N.K. leader vows to promote peace by strengthening defense

5. Moon says national unity is important in new year

6. North Korean teens face gulag for using 'perverted' slang words

7. New infection cases under 1,000 for 3rd day; restrictions eased on indoor sports facilities

8. North Korea forms new research center focused on "hypersonic missiles"

9. North Korea appears to be jamming Unification Media Group radio broadcasts

10. KEDO: Long Gone, and Nearly Forgotten

11. N.K. leader vows to boost defense capabilities at party congress

12. North Korea appears intent on receiving "international support" for a COVID-19 vaccine

13. Cheong Wa Dae denies report on pardons for Park, Lee

14. Moon's disapproval rate surpasses 60% for 1st time

15. S. Korea congratulates Biden on Congress' certification of election victory

16. North Korea: Out Of The Frying Pan, Into The Fire - Analysis

17. Wendy Sherman is likely to rank top 2nd in U.S. State Department (South Korean perspective)

18. Kim Jong-un Admits 'Near-Total' Economic Failure

19. Kim Jong Un Tells Ruling Party Congress He Wants Defense Boost

20. N. Korea's Kim urges 'big leap forward' at rare party congress

21. North Korea's party congress is moment of truth for Kim and country

 

1. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Continues Report on Work of 7th Central Committee of WPK

kcnawatch.org · January 7, 2021

Summary of the Day 2 report for the 8th Party Congress: infrastructure, agriculture, people's living standards, science and tech, and defense.

 

2. Kim Jong Un Promotes Little Sister Again After Admitting His Economic Plan Is a Bust

The Daily Beast  · by Donald Kirk · January 6, 2021

It is likely Kim Yo-jong is the person Kim trusts the most.  This may be to help reinforce the Paektu bloodline and strengthen the legitimacy of the Kim family regime.  It is possible that this is part of a long term succession plan.  But it appears from Kim Yo-jong's actions over the past two years that Kim Jong-un intends to use her to play a hardline role and exert pressure, especially on South Korea.

 

3. S. Korean delegation departs for Iran to negotiate release of seized oil tanker

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 7, 2021

Excerpts:

“Iran has claimed that the seizure took place due to "technical issues" and the matter will be addressed in line with its judicial process. The ship's operator has denied the oil pollution allegations.

Seoul's First Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-kun is also expected to travel to Iran early next week to discuss the seizure and other bilateral issues.”

 

4. N.K. leader vows to promote peace by strengthening defense

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 7, 2021

Invoking President Reagan? "Peace through strength."

 

5. Moon says national unity is important in new year

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · January 7, 2021

National unity should be a priority for all countries.

 

6. North Korean teens face gulag for using 'perverted' slang words

Daily Mail · by Michael Havis · January 6, 2021

I guess washing mouths out with soup is not an appropriate punishment in north Korea.

 

7. New infection cases under 1,000 for 3rd day; restrictions eased on indoor sports facilities

en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · January 7, 2021

Too soon to lift restrictions? There is a lag time for these actions.

 

8. North Korea forms new research center focused on "hypersonic missiles"

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · January 6, 2021

Hypersonic missiles are all the rage today.  Of course, Kim will want this capability. 

 

9. North Korea appears to be jamming Unification Media Group radio broadcasts

dailynk.com ·  by Mun Dong Hui · January 7, 2021

We should consider that the regime has to expend a lot of electricity to generate the power to jam radio signals.  It is another example of how Kim's policy choices contribute to the suffering of the Korean people.

 

10. KEDO: Long Gone, and Nearly Forgotten

38north.org · by Robert Carlin · January 6, 2021

History of another failed attempt to denuclearize the north.

 

11. N.K. leader vows to boost defense capabilities at party congress

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 7, 2021

Despite all the economic failure, that Kim has admitted he is going to double down on support to the military. Kim's deliberate policy choices lead to the suffering of the Korean people in the north.  We have offered a brighter future to the north if he will make the right strategic decision. The South has offered engagement opportunities.  The South has worked to decrease tensions and has implemented confidence-building measures through the Comprehensive Military Agreement, with risk to ROK/US combined military readiness in an attempt to show the regime it does not have a hostile policy.  But all to no avail.  Kim's priority is to developing offensive military capabilities and this can only be for one purpose: to support the regime goal to dominate the peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

12. North Korea appears intent on receiving "international support" for a COVID-19 vaccine

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · January 7, 2021

Note that the regime will not cooperate with South Korea.  I urge the Moon administration to re-evaluate its assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.  Kim does not share moon's vision for peace and reconciliation.

 

13. Cheong Wa Dae denies report on pardons for Park, Lee

koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · January 7, 2021

Excerpts:

“Cheong Wa Dae on Thursday flatly denied a report that the presidential office was considering ways to grant pardons to Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak, the two former presidents jailed for abuses of power and corruption offenses.

Earlier in the day, the Chosun Ilbo reported that Cheong Wa Dae was considering pardoning Park first while discussing other options like a suspension of prison sentence for Lee, citing unnamed sources from the ruling bloc.

Pardons can only be granted by the president, but suspensions of prison time can be decided by the Ministry of Justice.”

 

14. Moon's disapproval rate surpasses 60% for 1st time

The Korea Times· by Kim Rahn · January 7, 2021

Perhaps his approval rating would rise if he did agree to pardon former Presidents Pak and Lee.

 

15. S. Korea congratulates Biden on Congress' certification of election victory

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 7, 2021

The ROKG did not waste any time. I am sure this message was prepped well ahead of time but it was probably delayed due to yesterday's events at our capitol.

 

16. North Korea: Out Of The Frying Pan, Into The Fire - Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by East Asia Forum · January 7, 2021

We have to be concerned that a perfect storm is brewing in north Korea.

Key point: "The economic damage has likely been just as great as the medical damage. This is largely of the government's own making. North Korea's border lockdown has caused trade with China, its only meaningful trade partner, to drop to extreme low levels - just US$1.6 million in October 2020, according to official figures. Several reports have spoken of food shortages and soaring market prices resulting in large part from the border shutdown."

 

17. Wendy Sherman is likely to rank top 2nd in U.S. State Department (South Korean perspective)

donga.com· January 7, 2021

Interesting assessment here: "Although Sherman, a dovish politician, engaged deeply in dialogue with North Korea, she turned into a hard-liner in retirement and stressed the necessity of all-out pressures on Pyongyang including military measures. She would once make harsh remarks by saying that Kim Jong Un should be called a murderous dictator."

 

18. Kim Jong-un Admits 'Near-Total' Economic Failure

english.chosun.com· January 7, 2021

However, he does not admit that the fundamental reasons for the failure are his deliberate policy decisions.  

 

19. Kim Jong Un Tells Ruling Party Congress He Wants Defense Boost

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · January 7, 2021

In 1992 during the US presidential campaign the bumper sticker was "It's the economy, stupid"

For the Kim family regime we should understand that it is always "it's the military, stupid."

 

20. N. Korea's Kim urges 'big leap forward' at rare party congress

straitstimes.com

Hmmm... we have modifications of Reagan and Mao - peace through strong defense (Peace through strength) and a big leap forward (Great leap forward).

 

21. North Korea's party congress is moment of truth for Kim and country

Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · January 6, 2021

Perfect storm?  Will the party be able to govern (and maintain total control) over all of north Korea and will the military remain coherent and continue to provide blind support to the regime?  We must be focused on the indications and warnings for instability.

But Michael Madden disagrees with me: "In contrast to other Pyongyang watchers," Madden said, "I don't think Kim Jong Un is under any more domestic pressure than political leaders in other countries coping with and possibly struggling with the pandemic's effects."

When we were writing the CONPLAN for north Korean instability and regime collapse we borrowed from Sun Tzu - "never assume your enemy will not attack, make yourself invincible" and adapted it this way, "never assume the north will not collapse, be prepared if it happens."  We need to observe for the indications and warnings.

 

---------------

 

"Democracy washes its dirty linen in public ... but it gets it clean." 

- Frank Crane

 

"Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty." 

- John Adams

 

"Although our interests as citizens vary, each one is an artery to the heart that pumps life through the body politic, and each is important to the health of democracy." 

- Bill Moyers

Oryx: The Oryx Handbook of Iranian Drones

Tue, 01/05/2021 - 9:44pm

An excellent open source analysis of Iranian UAV systems, ranging from small tactical platforms to aircraft that appear to be emulating medium-altitude armed UAVs like the U.S. MQ-1 or MQ-9. Another example of the impressive intelligence insights and products that can be derived from open source means. Especially relevent as tensions in the region remain high (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-drill-drone/iran-tests-drones-in-military-exercise-idUSKBN29A1A3).

 

Full Article: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2019/09/the-oryx-handbook-of-iranian-drones.html

Wall Street Journal: Russian Aggression Spurs Neighbors to Rebuild Defenses

Tue, 01/05/2021 - 9:09pm

(Subscription Required) A look at how the countries of Eastern Europe and Scandanavia are adapting to increased Russian aggression and posturing to deter conflict or prepare for potential aspects of Russian war plans.

 

Full Article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-aggression-spurs-neighbors-to-rebuild-defenses-11609859853?mod=hp_lead_pos10

War on the Rocks: How the Army Out-Innovated the Islamic State’s Drones

Tue, 01/05/2021 - 8:59pm

From members of the U.S. Army's Asymmetric Warfare Group

Authors: T.S. Allen, Kyle Brown, and Jonathan Askonas

Full Article: https://warontherocks.com/2020/12/how-the-army-out-innovated-the-islamic-states-drones/

 

Some "Lessons for the Next IED" from the article

  • You have not defeated an improvised threat until you can defeat it cheaply.
  • Disable the enemy’s hand, not just his weapon.
  • Materiel is not capability.
  • Experimental technical intelligence works.
  • The fundamentals of reconnaissance apply.

1/5/2021 News & Commentary - National Security

Tue, 01/05/2021 - 1:13pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. South Korean tanker was boarded by armed Iran Guard forces

2. The Wuhan lab-leak hypothesis goes mainstream

3.  NYSE scraps plans to delist Chinese telecom stocks

4. Pompeo cites China, North Korea as Trump’s unfinished business

5. On anniversary of downed Flight 752, it's time to hold Iran accountable

6. Is America back? The high politics of trade in the Indo-Pacific

7. Ten angry men: what the incredible letter from former Defense Secretaries should tell Americans

8. Everybody spies in cyberspace. The U.S. must plan accordingly.

9. Jolo police charged with murder, planting evidence in soldiers' slay

10. Snowden's no hero

11. The mutated virus is a ticking time bomb

12. Beijing’s bid for financial supremacy

13. President Trump must act on behalf of Robert Bales and other convicted warfighters

14. Complaint about Green Beret colonel’s ‘overreactions’ was dismissed months before police standoff

15. Top Pentagon official dismissed U.S. alliances with Taiwan, Australia

16. Philippine ‘within striking distance’: China seen gearing up for full naval base operations on Fiery Cross Reef

17. Pentagon gets diversity watchdog in bill passed over Trump veto

18. Three brothers: a Navy SEAL, Green Beret, and the Marine sole survivor

19. Biden should retain these Trump policies to keep America great in 2021

20. Options to prioritize people and improve readiness: decreasing OPTEMPO to increase learning

21. Biden’s security adviser gives a foreign policy preview

22. Afghan conflict - a look back at 2020

 

1. South Korean tanker was boarded by armed Iran Guard forces

AP · Hyung-Jin Kim & Jon Gambrell · January 5, 2021

 

2. The Wuhan lab-leak hypothesis goes mainstream

National Review · Jim Geraghty · January 4, 2021

I wondered about this last February.

 

3. NYSE scraps plans to delist Chinese telecom stocks

Wall Street Journal · Chong Koh Ping & Ben Otto · January 5, 2021

About face.

I received these comments from a friend who knows and understands finance and investing and history better than I ever will:

“I laughed at the Washington showboat politicians on delisting Alibaba, JD. Com, et al. An American proverb comes to mind: “cut off one’s own nose to spite the face.” London used to be the center of global finance and global listings; they made the similar hubris mistakes as this. So, we lose several trillions in capital – for what?? Send it to Hong Kong to be laundered back to Beijing in new aircraft carriers and a global blue water navy? All that global investor capital will follow Alibaba, Baidu, et al wherever they are listed.”

 

4. Pompeo cites China, North Korea as Trump’s unfinished business

Bloomberg · Nick Wadhams · January 4, 2021

In his defense, every administration has unfinished business with North Korea. As long as the Kim family regime remains in power, business will always be unfinished.

 

5. On anniversary of downed Flight 752, it’s time to hold Iran accountable

Hill · Toby Dershowitz, Alireza Nader, &Dylan Gresik · January 4, 2021

 

6. Is America back? The high politics of trade in the Indo-Pacific

Brookings · Mireya Solís · January 4, 2021

 

7. Ten angry men: what the incredible letter from former Defense Secretaries should tell Americans

TIME · James Stavridis · January 4, 2021

 

8. Everybody spies in cyberspace. The U.S. must plan accordingly.

Defense One · Amy Zegart · January 4, 2021

We must work from the assumption that we can be compromised in cyberspace.

 

9. Jolo police charged with murder, planting evidence in soldiers' slay

Rappler · Rambo Talabong · January 4, 2021

Wow. This is difficult to believe.

 

10. Snowden's no hero

Washington Examiner · Rebeccah Heinrichs · January 1, 2021

In my humble opinion, he is a traitor.

 

11. The mutated virus is a ticking time bomb

Defense One · Zeynep Tufekci · January 4, 2021

But this will be denied by the COVID deniers and conspiracy theorists.

 

12. Beijing’s bid for financial supremacy

Wall Street Journal · Kevin Warsh · January 4, 2021

 

13. President Trump Must Act on Behalf of Robert Bales and Other Convicted Warfighters

Military.com · David Gurfein · January 4, 2021

Oh no. Wow. This is quite an argument. Clearly, if the author's allegations are true, we made some horrendous process mistakes. But Bales has been proven to be a cold-blooded murderer. He should not be pardoned. At best and again if the process allegations are true, he should be retired. Then again, he has exhausted all his appeals (with the Supreme Court declining to hear the case) so it seems that due process has been conducted.

But I will leave this to the legal experts to assess and explain.

 

14. Complaint about Green Beret colonel’s ‘overreactions’ was dismissed months before police standoff

Military Times · Kyle Rempfer · January 4, 2021

Such a terrible tragedy for the family.  But this article exposes an issue that is going to add to all of the controversy about investigations in the military, especially investigations of senior officers.

 

15. Top Pentagon official dismissed U.S. alliances with Taiwan, Australia

Washington Times · Rowan Scarborough · January 4, 2021

James Baker has been the subject of controversy before.

 

16. Philippine ‘within striking distance’: China seen gearing up for full naval base operations on Fiery Cross Reef

Straits Times · January 5, 2021

 

17. Pentagon gets diversity watchdog in bill passed over Trump veto

Bloomberg · Anthony Capaccio · January 5, 2021

There is a lot to unpack from the NDAA.

 

18. Three brothers: a Navy SEAL, Green Beret and the Marine sole survivor

Marine Corps Times · Todd South · January 5, 2021

Quite a story. If someone pitched this for a fictional movie it would probably be rejected as being too far-fetched.

 

19. Biden should retain these Trump policies to keep America great in 2021

Hill · Merrill Matthews · January 4, 2021

 

20. Options to Prioritize People and Improve Readiness: Decreasing OPTEMPO to Increase Learning

Divergent Options · Josh Linvill · January 4, 2021

One of the biggest challenges our military faces.

 

21. Biden’s security adviser gives a foreign policy preview

Asia Times · MK Bhadrakumar · January 5, 2021

Here is the link to the transcript of Jake Sullivan's discussion with Freed Zakaria on Sunday.

 

22. Afghan conflict - a look back at 2020

SOF News · January 5, 2021

 

" Kind people help each other even without noticing that they are doing so, and evil people act against each other on purpose."

- Chinese proverb

"A gunshot wound may be cured, but the wound made by the tongue never heals."

- Persian wisdom

"Let all your efforts be directed to something, let it keep that end in view. It's not activity that disturbs people, but false conscriptions of things that drive them mad."

- Seneca

1/5/2021 News & Commentary - Korea

Tue, 01/05/2021 - 11:53am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. South Korea sends destroyer after Iran seizes tanker

2. Seoul to send delegation to Iran to negotiate release of seized S. Korean ship

3. Iran says South Korea holding $7 bln Iran funds 'hostage'

4. S. Korea, Iran in talks over use of frozen money to purchase vaccines

5. North Korea requests Covid-19 vaccines from global group

6. A self-defeating policy

7. N. Korea shows no sign of 'major provocation' for now: USFK chief

8. U.S. Forces Korea CO: America still conducting theater-level training exercises

9.  As birthrate falls, South Korea’s population declines, posing threat to economy

10. N. Korea remains silent on rare party congress

11. South Korea’s population falls for first time, likely worsened by Covid-19

12. South Korea should stop acting as North Korea’s doormat

13. Pyongyang celebrates 2021, but a parade is still to come

14. New Congresswoman sports hanbok to swearing-in

15. S. Korean shipyards tipped to take No. 1 spot in new orders in 2020

16. S. Korean unit begins operations in Hormuz Strait after Iran's oil tanker seizure

17. U.S.-South Korea alliance: a new vision for the global challenges ahead

18. UN petition concerning the Song Young-Gil Amendment to the Inter-Korean Relations Development Act (North Korean information gag law)

19. Observing the "immovable object": an interview with A.B. Abrams on North Korea

 

1. South Korea sends destroyer after Iran seizes tanker

Asia Times · Andrew Salmon · January 5, 2021

The South Korean Navy and SEALs conducted an excellent rescue operation of a South Korean vessel from pirates off the Horn of Africa during anti-piracy operations. I do not think a similar rescue operation is in the cards in Iran.

I do think, given the geostrategic situation in the Middle East, we are seeing a 3 dimensional chess game play out.

 

2. Seoul to send delegation to Iran to negotiate release of seized S. Korean ship

Yonhap News Agency · 강윤승 · January 5, 2021

Negotiate from a position of strength. Please learn from the mistakes of dealing with North Korea.  Appeasement will not be successful.

 

3. Iran says South Korea holding $7 bln Iran funds ‘hostage’

Jerusalem Post · Reuters · January 5, 2021

Hmmm... Iran's "blackmail diplomacy?"

 

4. S. Korea, Iran in talks over use of frozen money to purchase vaccines

Yonhap News Agency · 송상호 · January 5, 2021

Again, 3D chess.

 

5. North Korea requests Covid-19 vaccines from global group

Wall Street Journal · Timothy W. Martin · January 4, 2021

I would make provision of vaccines contingent on transparency of the COVID situation in North Korea.

We should also keep in mind that the regime's hackers are attacking vaccine manufacturers as it keeps all its options open.

 

6. A self-defeating policy

Chosun Ilbo · Victor Cha · January 5, 2021

An important critique from Dr. Cha.

 

7. N. Korea shows no sign of 'major provocation' for now: USFK chief

Yonhap News Agency · 변덕근 · January 5, 2021

The operative words are "for now."

General Abrams provided a pretty comprehensive overview of the security situation. I am surprised the press did not discuss our conversation about training and OPCON transition and the general's explanation of the conditions and the 26 discrete mission essential tasks. I thought the Koran media would pick up on that. I concluded my comments with the remark that failure to meet the conditions required for OPCON transition will put the security of the ROK at great risk. 

 

8. U.S. Forces Korea CO: America still conducting theater-level training exercises

USNI News · John Grady · January 4, 2021

General Abrams debunked the myth that training has been halted in Korea. He outlined some of the challenges, especially with regards to live fire training. But he has been conducting training in accordance with his 2019 posture statement for his Senate testimony by using the "4 dials" to adjust training in support of diplomacy:

“However, we must continuously strike a balance between the clear need to train and exercise military capability and the requirement to create space for and support strategic diplomacy. To help achieve this equilibrium, we are innovating and evolving our approach by tuning 4 dials that adjust exercise design and conduct – size, scope, volume, and timing. Adjustments to these dials allows exercise design to remain in tune with diplomatic and political requirements without sacrificing the training of essential tasks and evolving our approach by tuning 4 dials that adjust exercise design and conduct – size, scope, volume, and timing. Adjustments to these dials allows exercise design to remain in tune with diplomatic and political requirements without sacrificing the training of essential tasks. Additionally, such fine tuning allows for the mitigation of impacts inherent to rapidly switching from our traditional large-scale exercise program to one of more targeted events.”

He also made the key point that they are just not talking about training as one of the reasons why people think we have hated training (which was among our recommendations in 2018 for adjusting training to test Kim Jong-Un).

Unfortunately, Kim's actions have shown he has not passed this test and all our efforts to reduce the perceived provocative nature of the training in the hopes that there would be a diplomatic breakthrough have been for naught.

Last evening a journalist asked me if we should cancel training altogether in return for negotiations and denuclearization. He asked if that would be a good tradeoff. Here is my response:

All militaries must train. Training is a perishable skill. Every day that goes by that an army does not train makes it weaker. Just as a professional football team or a golfer or a chess player must train in order to maintain their skills, armies must train. Or, as Confucius said, "to send an untrained army to war is to throw it away." As we speak, North Korea is conducting its annual winter training cycle, which occurs from the end of November to the end of March. This exercise is designed to bring the North Korean People's Army (NKPA) to the highest state of readiness by March, which is the optimal time for attack of the South, because the ground is still frozen and the farmers in the South have not planted the rice fields, both of which benefit maneuver of military vehicles. This is one of the reasons we have always conducted Team Spirit (which was at one time the largest training exercise in the free world and which we ended in 1993 as a concession for the failed Agreed Framework of 1994). Because North Korea continued to prepare for offensive operations, we later developed exercise RSO&I and Key Resolve. We then moved Foal Eagle from the fall to the late winter so we would have a major training exercise to bring ROK and US forces to the highest state of readiness to both deter the North and be ready to "fight tonight" should Kim choose to execute his campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force. Failure to train would be the height of irresponsibility on the part of military and political leaders.

But the premise to your question is a dangerous one. First, it presupposes that Kim Jong-Un would come to the negotiating table if we would stop training. We have tested this premise since June 2018. The Comprehensive Military Agreement of September 2018 between North and South Korea was designed to implement confidence building measures, but there has been almost zero reciprocity from the North, only token actions in the JSA, and the removal of a handful of guard posts. The North continues to have its forces postured for offensive operations with 70% of its 1.2-million-man army forward deployed in an offensive posture between the DMZ and Pyongyang. The North has done nothing of substance to reduce the threat to the South or reduce tensions in a substantive way. 

Second, would it be worth the gamble to put the security of the ROK at risk by not conducting training? Again, failing to train would render ROK and US forces incapable of deterring and when deterrence fails the combined military force would be incapable of conducting the necessary missions of defending the ROK and defeating the NKPA. The belief that the regime would respond in good faith is not born out by history and illustrates a lack of understanding of the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy to dominate the Korean peninsula. We must understand the strategic interests, aim, and objectives of the regime. These can be summed up this way:

The Kim family regime as a seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia-like crime family cult known as Kim family regime. In support of this strategy, Kim Jong-Un has the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula. He has a divide-to-conquer strategy: divide the alliance to conquer the ROK.

Kim Jong-Un will neither come to the negotiating table nor denuclearize in return for our ending exercises. His rhetoric about exercises is really designed to accomplish his objectives. His demand for an end to the US "hostile policy" is described this way:

Kim's view of the steps required from the Singapore statement:

1. Change relationship - declaration of the end of the war (end of hostile US policy - i.e., peace regime)

2. Sanctions relief (permanent removal)

3. Denuclearization of the South (end of alliance, removal of troops, end of nuclear umbrella over ROK and Japan)

4. Negotiate dismantlement of the north’s and ICBM programs

In Short:

NK demand: change relationship, build trust, denuclearize

US desire: denuclearize, build trust, change relationship

The problem with the North Korean demand is that it would put the ROK at great risk, and, once US forces are off the peninsula, it is likely conflict will occur.

Ending training on the Korean peninsula in return for the hope of denuclearization would be the first step on the path to splitting the ROK/US alliance and putting the North on the path to use force to unify the peninsula. Again, offering to end training would be the height of irresponsibility.

 

9. As birthrate falls, South Korea’s population declines, posing threat to economy

New York Times · Rick Gladstone · January 4, 2021

This is getting some attention in the US mainstream media.

It is more than a threat to the economy. It is a national security threat as well with the declining pool for military-age personnel.

Korea must solve the "Korea question" to mitigate the effects of this decline.

 

10. N. Korea remains silent on rare party congress

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 5, 2021

Keeping us guessing and waiting with bated breath. What will we see, hear, and read?

 

11. South Korea’s population falls for first time, likely worsened by Covid-19

Wall Street Journal · Eun-Young Jeong · January 4, 2021

It is not just the declining birth rate but also the increase in the numbers of the elderly. South Korea is facing a complex problem.

 

12. South Korea should stop acting as North Korea’s doormat

National Interest · Doug Bandow · January 4, 2021

Do we really think North Korea can ever become a "normal country" given the nature, strategy, and objectives of the Kim family regime?

 

13. Pyongyang celebrates 2021, but a parade is still to come

38 North · Martyn Williams · January 4, 2021

We could see some kind of military event.

 

14. New Congresswoman sports hanbok to swearing-in

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Jin-myung · January 5, 2021

 

15. S. Korean shipyards tipped to take No. 1 spot in new orders in 2020

Yonhap News Agency · 곽영섭 · January 5, 2021

How many commercial ships were built in the US?

 

16. S. Korean unit begins operations in Hormuz Strait after Iran’s oil tanker seizure

Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · January 5, 2021

 

17. U.S.-South Korea alliance: a new vision for the global challenges ahead

Forbes · Scott Snyder · January 4, 2021

Important recommendations.

I would add to these thoughts and recommendations the key point that the Biden and Moon agreement must come to sufficient agreement on strategic assumptions regarding North Korea.

A political strategy alone will not defeat the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy. We need a superior form of political warfare.

A wise Korea hand once said to me that just about everything that could be tried with North Korea has been tried and all we can do is keep repackaging previous actions in new ways to try to achieve some kind of progress.  

But we need to thoroughly assess the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and then develop a new strategy that will result in a new, acceptable, durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and US-ROK alliance interests.

A key initial effort of the Biden administration should be a convening of the MOFA-State strategy working group. A review of alliance strategies should be conducted with a focus on assessing the fundamental assumptions upon which ROK and US policies and strategies are based. The Moon Administration has been laboring under the erroneous assumption that Kim Jong-Un supports President Moon’s vision of peace and reconciliation and that there can be North-South engagement on reciprocal terms. A thorough analysis and understanding of the Kim family regime will reveal the Kim family regimes’ strategy is to use political warfare to subvert South Korea and, when conditions are right, to use force to unify the peninsula under northern rule. Basing policy and strategy on the Moon administration’s assumptions is the path to failure on the Korean peninsula.

We should never forget this point: the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. 

 

18. UN petition concerning the Song Young-Gil Amendment to the Inter-Korean Relations Development Act (North Korean information gag law)

Transitional Justice Working Group · December 30, 2020

A very comprehensive description of the law and issues.

 

19. Observing the "immovable object": an interview with A.B. Abrams on North Korea

Daily NK · Gabriela Bernal · December 30, 2020

Can you say revisionist history? I think A.B. Abrams must be the next generation Bruce Cumings. Blame America.

 

" Kind people help each other even without noticing that they are doing so, and evil people act against each other on purpose."

- Chinese proverb

"A gunshot wound may be cured, but the wound made by the tongue never heals."

- Persian wisdom

"Let all your efforts be directed to something, let it keep that end in view. It's not activity that disturbs people, but false conscriptions of things that drive them mad."

- Seneca

01/04/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Mon, 01/04/2021 - 9:23am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Opinion | All 10 living former defense secretaries: Involving the military in election disputes would cross into dangerous territory

2. Extraordinary warning to Trump by 10 former Pentagon chiefs

3. Bill introduced in US House to terminate designation of Pakistan as major non-NATO ally

4. Europe's New Pact With China Is Terribly Timed

5. USS Nimitz to Stay in Middle East to Counter Iran Threat on Anniversary

6. Marines Prepare for Rising Challenge From China's Military With Island Training

7. Trump And The Military: What An Erratic Commander In Chief Leaves Behind

8. A Grand Strategy Based on Resilience

9. Special Operations News Update - Monday, January 4, 2021

10. The Bill Is Coming Due for China's 'Capitalist' Experiment

11. New in 2021: Bonhomme Richard will be turned into scrap

12. New in 2021: Murder trials set for Navy SEAL and Marine Raider in death of Green Beret

13. Gohmert talks of violence in streets after his lawsuit is dismissed

14. Wonder Weapon: Meet the U.S. Special Operations Off-Road 'Flyer'

15. Meet the key members of Joe Biden's transition team

16. U.S. foreign military sales broke records in 2020, and may grow more in 2021

17. Donald Trump Isn't Planning to Attack Iran

 

1. Opinion | All 10 living former defense secretaries: Involving the military in election disputes would cross into dangerous territory

The Washington Post by Ashton Carter, Dick Cheney, William Cohen, Mark Esper, Robert Gates, Chuck Hagel, James Mattis, Leon Panetta, William Perry and Donald Rumsfeld · January 3, 2021

Many words could describe this but I will simply use unprecedented.

 

2. Extraordinary warning to Trump by 10 former Pentagon chiefs

AP · by Robert Burns · January 4, 2021

Extraordinary is another word to describe this letter.

Excerpt: The Post reported that the idea for writing the opinion piece began with a conversation between Cheney and Eric Edelman, a retired ambassador and former senior Pentagon official, about how Trump might seek to use the military in coming days.

 

3. Bill introduced in US House to terminate designation of Pakistan as major non-NATO ally

indiatoday.in · by Lalit K Jha · January 4, 2021

Reporting from India. I have not seen this in the US mainstream media but it is probably overshadowed by other news.

 

4. Europe's New Pact With China Is Terribly Timed

Bloomberg · by Editorial Board · January 4, 2021

It would seem so.

Conclusion: "European leaders were right to call the Trump administration's unilateral approach to China all bluster and no results. There's no reason to think European unilateralism will work any better."

 

5. USS Nimitz to Stay in Middle East to Counter Iran Threat on Anniversary

WSJ · by Gordon Lubold and Nancy A. Youssef· January 4, 2021

The OPTEMPO for our navy must be brutal.

 

6. Marines Prepare for Rising Challenge From China's Military With Island Training

WSJ · by Alastair Gale· January 4, 2021

Excerpts:

“At one of a series of recent exercises, a few dozen Marines faded into long grass after touching down in two CH-47 Chinook helicopters, followed by Japanese soldiers arriving in two Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft. Their simulated mission: avoiding detection and recapturing a port on an island inside the range of much of the enemy's missiles and artillery.”

“The exercise reflected a new emphasis on small, dispersed troop units and command centers, which are intended to be harder to locate and destroy. The simulation was one of the first to be directed from a command hub consisting of three armored vehicles that can be set up or moved in minutes and emit fewer traceable signals.”

 

7. Trump And The Military: What An Erratic Commander In Chief Leaves Behind

NPR · by Tom Bowman · January 4, 2021

Title aside, a fairly objective review from a wide range of defense experts and analysts.

 

8. A Grand Strategy Based on Resilience

warontherocks.com · by Erica D. Borghard · January 4, 2021

Conclusion: "Of course, the particulars of a resilience-based approach will vary by sector and function - each is defined by its own stakeholders, requirements, unique technologies, types of threats, relationship with society, and so on. In other words, financial resilience, which is critical for the U.S. economy, had fundamentally different requirements than the resilience of energy infrastructure, or the resilience of the U.S. nuclear deterrent, or the resilience of American alliances. That said, beginning to incorporate resilience into strategy and creating market incentives for private sector and government entities alike to prioritize and invest in their resilience is an essential first step toward refreshing American grand strategy for current and future challenges. That is because, in a great-power competition, resilience is likely to be a significant comparative advantage. If American grand strategy rests on "winning" every interaction in the so-called great-power competition, policymakers are left with a brittle strategy that forces unpalatable choices between capitulation and escalation. Resilience, however, obviates that need by anticipating that setbacks will be part of the strategic environment and, therefore, preparing in advance to address them."

 

9. Special Operations News Update - Monday, January 4, 2021

sof.news · by SOF News · January 4, 2021

SOF News has returned from hiatus.  It is a good source from across the SOF community.

 

10. The Bill Is Coming Due for China's 'Capitalist' Experiment

National Review Online · by Michael Hochberg · January 1, 2021

 

11. New in 2021: Bonhomme Richard will be turned into scrap

navytimes.com · by Geoff Ziezulewicz · January 3, 2021

I wonder what would have happened if we lost the Bonhamme Rochard during combat operations.  How would we replace the capability?  How long would it take to rebuild the capability?

 

12. New in 2021: Murder trials set for Navy SEAL and Marine Raider in death of Green Beret

armytimes.com · by Todd South · January 3, 2021

Not the kind of 'joint SOF operations" we want to highlight.  But this tragic and terrible event will continue to remain in the news and haunt the SOF community when the trial takes place this year.

 

13. Gohmert talks of violence in streets after his lawsuit is dismissed

The Hill · by John Bowden · January 3, 2021

This is so troubling. But for those who advocate violence I would like to know what is your strategy?  How do you intend to employ violence and to what effect?  What is the end game and how to you propose to achieve that through violence?

 

14. Wonder Weapon: Meet the U.S. Special Operations Off-Road 'Flyer'

The National Interest · by Peter Suciu · January 3, 2021

 

15. Meet the key members of Joe Biden's transition team

The Telegraph · by David Millward,

 

16. U.S. foreign military sales broke records in 2020, and may grow more in 2021

upi.com· by Christen McCurdy· January 1, 2021

 

17. Donald Trump Isn't Planning to Attack Iran

19fortyfive.com · by ByMichael Rubin · January 3, 2021

 

--------

 

"Brinksmanship ...  the deliberate creation of a recognizable risk, a risk that one does not completely control. It is the tactic of deliberately letting the situation get somewhat out of hand, just because its being out of hand may be intolerable to the other party and force his accommodation.  It means harassing and intimidating an adversary by exposing him to a shared risk, or by deterring him by showing that if he makes a contrary move he may disturb us so that we slip over the rink whether we want to or not, carrying him with us." 

- Thinking Strategically, Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff


"If your organization is small in numbers, then do what Gideon did: conceal the numbers in the dark but raise a din and clamor that will make the listener believe that your organization numbers many more than it does.... Always remember the first rule of power tactics: Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have."

-  Rules for Radicals, Saul Alinsky

 

"All you need are these: certainty of judgment in the present moment; actions for the common good in the present moment; and an attitude of gratitude in the present moment for anything that comes your way." 

- Marcus Aurelius

01/04/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Mon, 01/04/2021 - 9:03am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. North Korea is showing off more than just massive missiles, but its new military hardware may be less than meets the eye

2. New cases rebound to over 1,000 despite extended virus curbs

3. N.K. paper calls for ramped-up antivirus campaign ahead of party congress

4. N. Korea likely to open rare party congress this week

5. Population Decline Calls for New National Strategy (South Korea)

6. Worker furloughs at stake as US, South Korea resume military cost-sharing talks

7. Ex-Presidents Could Be Pardoned This Year (South Korea)

8. 23 new virus cases reported in USFK, total exceeds 500

9. Defense ministry extends restrictions on troop vacations over pandemic

10. FM Kang calls for early high-level exchanges with incoming Biden gov't to cement alliance

11. Minister says he hopes for positive message from N. Korea

12. Six lawmakers head to Washington for inauguration

13. 'Biden should build on Trump's North Korea policy'

14. South Korea needs to take actions to keep North Korea issue high on US agenda

15. 'What to Do About North Korea'

16. Voters lean toward opposition (South Korea)

17. South Korea's 30th anniversary of UN membership and New Year

 

1. North Korea is showing off more than just massive missiles, but its new military hardware may be less than meets the eye

Business Insider · by Benjamin Brimelow

My PIR is to determine how much of the equipment we observed on October 10th is actually operational and has been fielded to operational units.

 

2. New cases rebound to over 1,000 despite extended virus curbs

en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · January 4, 2021

 

3. N.K. paper calls for ramped-up antivirus campaign ahead of party congress

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · January 4, 2021

But still no reported cases in north Korea.  I have to give the regime credit for how well it is controlling information.

But will the 8th Party Congress be a super spreader event?  Will the members wear masks?  Will they socially distance?

 

4. N. Korea likely to open rare party congress this week

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 4, 2021

Does Kim want to compete with the media coverage of the Georgia run-off or with Congress' certification of the electoral college vote?  Will the party congress be internally focused or externally focused?  What message will Kim have for Moon and Biden?

 

5. Population Decline Calls for New National Strategy

english.chosun.com

My four word strategy:  "Solve the Korea question."

 

6. Worker furloughs at stake as US, South Korea resume military cost-sharing talks

Stars and Stripes· Erica Earl· January 4, 2021

We should not forget the Special Measures Agreement stalemate continues.

Excerpts:

“In June, South Korea provided $200 million to pay the entire Korean workforce at U.S. bases through the end of 2020.

The U.S. military warned its South Korean base employees in November that they may face another furlough in 2021 if an agreement cannot be reached.”

 

7. Ex-Presidents Could Be Pardoned This Year (South Korea)

english.chosun.com· January 4, 2021

 

8. 23 new virus cases reported in USFK, total exceeds 500

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 4, 2021

Excerpts:

“Of the newly reported cases, eight service members and one dependent arrived at Osan Air Base in the city of Pyeongtaek, some 70 kilometers south of Seoul, on U.S. government chartered flights from the U.S. between Dec. 16 and 29, according to USFK.

Nine service members, three dependents, one contractor and one retired service member arrived on international commercial flights at Incheon International Airport, west of Seoul, between Dec. 16 and 31, it added.”

 

9. Defense ministry extends restrictions on troop vacations over pandemic

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 4, 2021

Interestingly it seems the ROK military and USFK have nearly the same total numbers of infections though the ROK military has about 650,000 active duty personnel and USFK has 28,500 personnel.  It appears the ROK military is doing a good job managing the pandemic.

Excerpts:

“On Monday, South Korea added 1,020 more COVID-19 cases, including 985 local infections, on Monday, raising the total caseload to 64,264, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA).

Up until Monday morning, the military reported a total of 508 virus cases.

Currently, 431 service members are in isolation in accordance with the health authorities' guidelines, and the military has quarantined an additional 3,386 people under stricter antivirus schemes of its own as a preventive step, according to the ministry.

 

10. FM Kang calls for early high-level exchanges with incoming Biden gov't to cement alliance

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 4, 2021

Excerpts:

"On the occasion of the launch of the new U.S. administration, we will have to develop the South Korea-U.S. alliance by realizing early high-level exchanges and through other measures," Kang was quoted by her office as saying.

"We will also have to further cement cooperation with neighboring countries, such as China, Japan and Russia," she added.

 

11. Minister says he hopes for positive message from N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 4, 2021

Wishful thinking?  As former CSA General Sullivan used to say "hope is not a course of action."

However, this attitude indicates a lack of understanding of the nature, strategy, and objectives of the Kim family regime.

The biggest source of friction in the ROK/US alliance is not the SMA negotiation stalemate or OPCON transition or THAAD or relations with China.  It is the pacific wide difference in strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime.  Unless the ROK and US can come to sufficient common agreement about the strategic assumptions upon which to base policy and strategy the alliance is going to struggle.

 

12. Six lawmakers head to Washington for inauguration

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Kim Hyo-Seong, Park Hyeun-Ju, and Shim Kyu-Seok

I do not think these lawmakers are going to convince any US officials about the new anti-leaflet law.  They are miscalculating.

Excerpts:

“PPP Rep. Chung cast the trip's objective as "restoring a traditional Korea-U.S. relationship" by shoring up ties that he claimed were pulled apart by the Moon Jae-in administration.

For DP lawmakers, another main goal for the trip is to explain to the Biden administration its recent passage of a highly controversial bill banning the sending of propaganda leaflets to North Korea.”

 

13. 'Biden should build on Trump's North Korea policy'

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo· January 4, 2021

A roll-up of recommendations from a number of Korea hands.

 

14. South Korea needs to take actions to keep North Korea issue high on US agenda

The Korea Times · January 4, 2021

I am sorry but north Korea is not going to be high on the Biden administration agenda as much as many of us would like it to be (unless Kim really acts out and does something drastic).  COVID and the US economy (treated as one issue) have to be the top priority.  Then China, Russia, Iran, and north Korea will compete for attention along with many other issues from climate change to trade agreements.

The key for the Biden administration is to have a strong Korea team that can manage the Korea issues.

 

15. 'What to Do About North Korea'

The Korea Times · by Chang Se-moon · January 3, 2021

A fascinating Oped that criticizes the Moon administration uses an interesting Nokia analogy.  Mr. Chang brings to together some very interesting points of view, information, and analogy.

 

16. Voters lean toward opposition

The Korea Times· by Yi Whan-woo · January 3, 2021

Will this impact the 2022 Presidential election?

 

17. South Korea's 30th anniversary of UN membership and New Year

The Korea Times · by Kang Kyung-wha · January 3, 2021

I am not surprised the Foreign Minister did not mention the UN Command and the contribution it made to defending freedom in South Korea.

 

-------

 

"Brinksmanship ...  the deliberate creation of a recognizable risk, a risk that one does not completely control. It is the tactic of deliberately letting the situation get somewhat out of hand, just because its being out of hand may be intolerable to the other party and force his accommodation.  It means harassing and intimidating an adversary by exposing him to a shared risk, or by deterring him by showing that if he makes a contrary move he may disturb us so that we slip over the rink whether we want to or not, carrying him with us." 

- Thinking Strategically, Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff


"If your organization is small in numbers, then do what Gideon did: conceal the numbers in the dark but raise a din and clamor that will make the listener believe that your organization numbers many more than it does.... Always remember the first rule of power tactics: Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have."

-  Rules for Radicals, Saul Alinsky


"All you need are these: certainty of judgment in the present moment; actions for the common good in the present moment; and an attitude of gratitude in the present moment for anything that comes your way." 

- Marcus Aurelius