News

https://mwi.usma.edu/artificial-intelligence-in-counterterrorism-and-counterinsurgency-with-retired-gen-stan-mcchrystal-and-dr-anshu-roy/

What role do information and intelligence play in counterinsurgency? How can artificial intelligence assist in tracking and identifying insurgent or terrorist activity? What are some of the opportunities and challenges of using AI in irregular warfare contexts?

Interviewers: Nick Lopez and Kyle Atwell

https://www.soc.mil/AssortedPages/ARSOF_Strategy.pdf

A re-up of the ARSOF strategy as the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, and Special Operations Command continue to adapt to the current and future security environment. 

Synopsis: The new Army Special Operations Forces (ARSOF) Strategy aligns efforts to achieve the 2018 Army Vision and synchronize with U.S. Special Operations Command strategic guidance. Great power competition means the Nation is in conflict right now - USASOC remains ready and engaged against violent extremist organizations while also adapting to compete against Russia and China, and preparing for war as part of the Army Team.

An analysis from CSIS on aspects of the recent fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia. There is some outstanding analysis in open sources as well, which highlighted the effect airpower in particular can have on poorly prepared conventional forces.

Full Article: https://www.csis.org/analysis/air-and-missile-war-nagorno-karabakh-lessons-future-strike-and-defense

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Lab leak is the 'most credible' source of the coronavirus outbreak

2. Nashville’s Big Bomb Was a Very Rare Device, Experts Think

3. Pandemic could multiply terror threat's reach and cause mutations

4. Mapped: The Top Surveillance Cities Worldwide

5. Opinion | Horrified by the Blackwater Pardons

6. SolarWinds hack may be much worse than originally feared

7. I’m a former CIA agent: Iran was behind Lockerbie and should be made to pay

8. Targeted Killings Are Terrorizing Afghans. And No One Is Claiming Them.

9. Retired generals aren't supposed to lead the Pentagon: Here's why

10. Dave Barry’s Year in Review 2020

1. Lab leak is the 'most credible' source of the coronavirus outbreak

Daily Mail · by Abul Taher · January 2, 2021

Information (intelligence? or just "credible theory" as he says) from Matt Pottinger.

Lab leak is the 'most credible' source of the coronavirus outbreak

China lab leak is the 'most credible' source of the coronavirus outbreak, says top US government official, amid bombshell claims Wuhan scientist has turned whistleblower

• Donald Trump's Deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger spoke
• Mr Pottinger told politicians leak is emerging as 'most credible source' of virus
• He claimed the pathogen may have escaped through a 'leak or an accident' 

2. Nashville’s Big Bomb Was a Very Rare Device, Experts Think

The Daily Beast · by SpyTalk · January 1, 2021

What was the motive?  But the type of explosive does seem troubling.  But I will leave it to the demolition experts (including 18Cs) to assess.

Excerpt:

“Accidental thermobaric explosions are not uncommon—for example, when a house explodes because of a natural gas leak. But IED-makers haven’t tried to stage them deliberately, up to now, Williams says, because too many things have to go right.

That’s why investigators must be eager to locate Warner’s proving ground, and also any internet sources he studied as he was building a timer and ignition mechanism that enabled him to blow up a Nashville city block, and himself, at 6:30 a.m. on Christmas Day.”

3. Pandemic could multiply terror threat's reach and cause mutations

straitstimes.com · by Zakir Hussain · January 2, 2021

Excerpts:

“Twenty years after the Sept 11, 2001 terror attack by Al-Qaeda on the United States and the discovery of regional terror network Jemaah Islamiah (JI), there is a need to be alert to three broad trends on the terror front.

One, a resurgence of traditional terror organisations like JI.

Two, a spike in radicalisation as people spend more time online.

Three, new mutations of terror.”

4. Mapped: The Top Surveillance Cities Worldwide

visualcapitalist.com · by Avery Koop · January 1, 2021

Graphics and charts at the hyperlink. Some fascinating data.

5. Opinion | Horrified by the Blackwater Pardons

The New York Times · by Michael Posner and Meg Roggensack · January 1, 2021

We should all be horrified but this FBI agent has the inside knowledge to know what really went on.

6. SolarWinds hack may be much worse than originally feared

The Verge · by Kim Lyons · January 2, 2021

A troubling excerpt, though I am confident we will learn from our mistakes - the problem is our adversaries are "learning organizations" and they are unlikely to use the same TTPs for the next hack.

“The Times reports that early warning sensors that Cyber Command and the NSA placed inside foreign networks to detect potential attacks appear to have failed in this instance. In addition, it seems likely that the US government’s attention on protecting the November elections from foreign hackers may have taken resources and focus away from the software supply chain, according to the Times. And conducting the attack from within the US apparently allowed the hackers to evade detection by the Department of Homeland Security.”

7. I’m a former CIA agent: Iran was behind Lockerbie and should be made to pay

blogs.timesofisrael.com · by John Holt · January 3, 2021

Well I am sure Mr. Holt had no say in the headline as he was not a CIA "agent."  I cannot vouch for the veracity but this goes against the conventional wisdom which I had thought was accurate since 1988.

8. Targeted Killings Are Terrorizing Afghans. And No One Is Claiming Them.

The New York Times · by Fahim Abed and Thomas Gibbons-Neff · January 2, 2021

There seems to be no limit to the complexity of Afghanistan.

9. Retired generals aren't supposed to lead the Pentagon: Here's why

Salon· by Dwight Stirling · January 3, 2021

Excerpt:

“When it came to the Constitution, the Founders specifically prescribed civilian control over the military by assigning the president the role of commander-in-chief while giving Congress the power to set the military's rules and budget.

Also the power to declare war lies with Congress as does the authority for establishing the rules for governing the military (UCMJ).

But I wonder how a retired General as SECDEF puts any of those responsibilities at risk or puts civilian control of the military at risk. He does not usurp any of these responsibilities for authorities.  And I do not think General Austin is a MacArthur.  I am not sure that is really a sound argument.

That said, I do not think a General is any more or less qualified to be SECDEF that a non-career military officer.  I question the decision based on the political capital President-elect Biden has to expend for successful confirmation.  Is he worth the cost?”

10. Dave Barry’s Year in Review 2020

The Washington Post · by Dave Barry

Now that hindsight really is 2020 (I could not resist borrowing that), it is time to read Dave Barry's reflections.

-------------

"Those who know the rules of true wisdom are baser than those who love them. Those who love them are baser than those who follow them." 

- Chinese Proverb

"What is the fruit of these teachings?  Only the most beautiful and proper harvest of the truly educated - tranquility, fearlessness, and freedom.  We should not trust the masses who say only the free can be educated but rather the lovers of wisdom who say that only the educated are free." 

- Epictetus

"A Prince need trouble little about conspiracies when the people are well disposed, but they are hostile and hold him in hatred, then he must fear everything and everybody." 

- Machiavelli

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. New infections under 1,000 for 2nd day amid extended tighter distancing rules (South Korea)

2. Imprisoned ex-presidents must show remorse for potential pardons: ruling party

3. Moon's approval rating drops to lowest point

4. Kim ditches trademark New Year's address in favor of handwritten letter

5. S. Korean population falls for 1st time on record low births

6. President Moon's keywords for 2021: economy, stability, communication

7. Pyongyang’s annus horribilis

8. South Korean health ministry takes down pandemic dance video after backlash

1. New infections under 1,000 for 2nd day amid extended tighter distancing rules (South Korea)

en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · January 3, 2021

Surely there is a lag between cause and effect.  We likely will not see the real effects of tighter social distancing rules for weeks to come.

2. Imprisoned ex-presidents must show remorse for potential pardons: ruling party

en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · January 3, 2021

It is hard to show remorse when you believe you did nothing wrong or were the victim of trumped up charges.

3. Moon's approval rating drops to lowest point

en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · January 3, 2021 

I wonder if President Moon's approval rating would rise if he pardoned former Presidents Lee and Pak.

4. Kim ditches trademark New Year's address in favor of handwritten letter

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Lee Sung-Eun and Yoo Jee-hye

As noted this is not the first time Kim has not given a New Year's address. He did not give one last year.  Now we wait for the 8th Party Congress to see if and how Kim will describe his future initiatives.

5. S. Korean population falls for 1st time on record low births

en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · January 3, 2021

Another reason why unification is important to the future of Korea.

6. President Moon's keywords for 2021: economy, stability, communication

The Korea Times · January 1, 2021

But diplomacy, the alliance and north Korea are still important.

7. Pyongyang’s annus horribilis

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· Lee Young-jong

I had to look up "annus horribilis." It means a year of disaster or misfortune.

There is a lot to unpack from the editorial.  Here is one key point: "What’s noteworthy is that all major state projects that had been carried out at the behest of Kim have either foundered or mysteriously disappeared from North Korean news outlets. Kim dug up the first shovel of dirt last March to mark the start of construction work for Pyongyang General Hospital, and he ordered his underlings to complete the hospital by October. But for months, North Korean media remained mum about it. The world has not heard any updates about the Wonsan-Kalma Coastal Tourist Area construction project either. Kim attended a ribbon-cutting ceremony highlighting the opening of the Suncheon Phosphatic Fertilizer Factory last May, but there haven’t been any follow-up news reports on the factory. The fact that Kim’s instructions are not being materialized indicates the North’s absolute depletion of available resources."

8. South Korean health ministry takes down pandemic dance video after backlash

straitstimes.com · January 2, 2021

The video has been taken down from most platforms but can be accessed at the embedded link.

I did not think the video was that offensive.  I think the Geico clogging commercial is more irritating. 

-----------

"Those who know the rules of true wisdom are baser than those who love them. Those who love them are baser than those who follow them." 

- Chinese Proverb

"What is the fruit of these teachings?  Only the most beautiful and proper harvest of the truly educated - tranquility, fearlessness, and freedom.  We should not trust the masses who say only the free can be educated but rather the lovers of wisdom who say that only the educated are free." 

- Epictetus

"A Prince need trouble little about conspiracies when the people are well disposed, but they are hostile and hold

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Better understanding irregular warfare in competition

2. Rising in the East: The Evolution of the Islamic State in the Philippines

3. How Taiwan Plans to Stay (Mostly) Covid-Free

4. Exercise Deep Water: Working the Integrated Distributed Insertion Force

5. Biden Can't Assume America Beats China in a Taiwan War

6. Defense-Bill Override Paves Way for Overhaul of Anti-Money-Laundering Rules

7. How the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation ended up in Congress’s $900 billion relief bill

8. In Abrupt Reversal of Iran Strategy, Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier Home

9. Everything That Happened in 2020, Summed Up in Shakespeare Quotes

10. A Hasty Withdrawal From Somalia

11. How ironic: Brevard County firefighters last call of 2020 was a dumpster fire

12. Poisoner, Hacker, Meddler, Spy: How Russian Agents Ran Wild

13. Coronavirus Resistance Linked to Plenty of Sunshine

14. Why does US counter China’s initiative?

15. As Understanding of Russian Hacking Grows, So Does Alarm

16. Microsoft says hackers were able to see some of its source code

17. Look at Wuhan a year after 1st acknowledgment of COVID-19

18. The Army Is Pursuing a Device That Can Turn Battlefield Ditch Water into Lifesaving IV Fluid

19. How Russia’s ‘Info Warrior’ Hackers Let Kremlin Play Geopolitics on the Cheap

20. George Orwell is out of copyright. What happens now?

1. Better understanding irregular warfare in competition

militarytimes.com · by Kevin Bilms · January 1, 2021

An important article from a current DOD official with responsibility for the new IW annex to the National Defense Strategy.

My short thesis: Irregular Warfare is the military contribution to the national level political warfare strategy. This excerpt describes that:

“Instead, the United States should consider a new approach, one that is informed by the IW Annex to the NDS. Applied with strategic focus, IW represents one way the military can apply its power complementarily with diplomatic, economic, financial and other elements of government power to secure strategic outcomes. Options exist using IW to counter maritime coercion through foreign internal defense; bolster partners and allies’ resilience against aggression through effective unconventional warfare; disrupt malign actors via robust counter-threat network capabilities; and shape the information space in politically sensitive environments through concerted military information support operations and civil affairs operations. These are far more affordable, and produce far less strain to the joint force, than relying on conventional solutions or delaying action until crisis.”

These are my thoughts which I have shared before.

Key point:  We should stop the proliferation of terminology (which I think causes intellectual paralysis) and adopt Irregular Warfare as the military contribution to Political Warfare. Political warfare is how we should describe the competition space between peace and war and is the defining element in Great Power Competition.  While state on state warfare is the most dangerous threat or course of action of GCP and why we must absolutely invest in deterrence and defense, Political War is the most likely threat or course of action. 

And I would add with absolutely no apologies to Leon Trotsky: America may not be interested in irregular, unconventional, and political warfare but IW/UW/PW are being practiced around the world by those who are interested in them – namely the revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations.

•       The dominant threat or problem we face is one political warfare supported by hybrid military approaches – and these approaches are best described as irregular warfare in DODD 3000.7 - a “violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations.”  It states that IW consisted of UW, foreign internal defense (FID), CT, counterinsurgency, and stability operations (SO).

•       So we have to be able to conduct our own form of Irregular warfare which of course includes the 5 mission sets I just named but is best described by Congress in the 2017 NDAA: Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.”

·      What is an example of how SOF contributes to Political Warfare through IW ? - through "unconventional deterrence" (the work of Bob Jones)- helping to harden populations and militaries of friends, partners, and allies to resist the malign influence of revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations.  This is exemplified by the Resistance Operating Concept pioneered by SOCEUR to counter Russian malign influence in Europe..  This model has application around the world especially if adapted for countries targeted by China's One Belt One Road initiative or in countries such as Taiwan.

It is time for us to shift from the Clausewitzian “War is politics or policy by other means” and embrace our adversaries’ views: “Politics is war by other means” or as Mao said, “Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed.”

2. Rising in the East: The Evolution of the Islamic State in the Philippines

ctc.usma.edu · December 30, 2020

From West Point's Combatting Terrorism Center.  The 62 page report can be downloaded here.  

3. How Taiwan Plans to Stay (Mostly) Covid-Free

The New York Times · by Raymond Zhong · January 2, 2021

"No man is an island."  But in the age of COVID it I may be an advantage when a country is an island.  We should be asking what lessons we can we learn from Taiwan?

4. Exercise Deep Water: Working the Integrated Distributed Insertion Force

sldinfo.com · by Robbin Laird · December 31, 2020

5. Biden Can't Assume America Beats China in a Taiwan War

19fortyfive.com · by Daniel Davis · December 31, 2020

A sober assessment.  Would this embolden China and the PLA? Would it make them overconfident?  

6. Defense-Bill Override Paves Way for Overhaul of Anti-Money-Laundering Rules

WSJ · by Jack Hagel · January 1, 2021

Perhaps one of the most important actions in the NDAA.

7.  How the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation ended up in Congress’s $900 billion relief bill

The Washington Post · by Paul O'Donnell · January 1, 2021

8. In Abrupt Reversal of Iran Strategy, Pentagon Orders Aircraft Carrier Home

The New York Times · by David Sanger and Eric Schmitt · January 1, 2021

All warfare is based on deception?

9. Everything That Happened in 2020, Summed Up in Shakespeare Quotes

sparknotes.com · by Elodie · December 31, 2020

Shakespeare remains relevant in 2021 (at least for helping to explain 2020).  I hope he is not banned the way the Odyssey was in a Massachusetts high school.

10. A Hasty Withdrawal From Somalia

WSJ · by The Editorial Board· December 31, 2020

Politics does trump strategy.

11. How ironic: Brevard County firefighters last call of 2020 was a dumpster fire

fox35orlando.com · by FOX 35 News Staff

Appropriate irony.

12. Poisoner, Hacker, Meddler, Spy: How Russian Agents Ran Wild

The Daily Beast · by SpyTalk· December 31, 2020

13. Coronavirus Resistance Linked to Plenty of Sunshine

english.chosun.com· January 2, 2021

"Let the sunshine in" from the 5th Dimension in the Age of Aquarius.

Maybe we could have massive (but socially distanced) sunbathing parties.  Reopen the beaches!! 

14. Why does US counter China’s initiative?

donga.com

Interesting OpEd from the Donga Ilbo.  A long back at a 1993 book "Can Asians Think?"

This is quite a critique of the past 20 years:

15. As Understanding of Russian Hacking Grows, So Does Alarm

The New York Times · by By · January 2, 2021

Excerpts:

“When the S.V.R. broke into the unclassified systems at the State Department and White House, Richard Ledgett, then the deputy director of the National Security Agency, said the agency engaged in the digital equivalent of “hand-to-hand combat.” At one point, the S.V.R. gained access to the NetWitness Investigator tool that investigators use to uproot Russian back doors, manipulating it in such a way that the hackers continued to evade detection.

Investigators said they would assume they had kicked out the S.V.R., only to discover the group had crawled in through another door.

Some security experts said that ridding so many sprawling federal agencies of the S.V.R. may be futile and that the only way forward may be to shut systems down and start anew. Others said doing so in the middle of a pandemic would be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming, and the new administration would have to work to identify and contain every compromised system before it could calibrate a response.

“The S.V.R. is deliberate, they are sophisticated, and they don’t have the same legal restraints as we do here in the West,” said Adam Darrah, a former government intelligence analyst who is now director of intelligence at Vigilante, a security firm.

Sanctions, indictments and other measures, he added, have failed to deter the S.V.R., which has shown it can adapt quickly.”

16. Microsoft says hackers were able to see some of its source code

The Verge · by T.C. Sottek · December 31, 2020

17.  Look at Wuhan a year after 1st acknowledgment of COVID-19

ABCNews.com · by ABC News

18. The Army Is Pursuing a Device That Can Turn Battlefield Ditch Water into Lifesaving IV Fluid

military.com · by Matthew Cox · December 31, 2020

Fascinating innovation.  I hope it proves feasible.

19. How Russia’s ‘Info Warrior’ Hackers Let Kremlin Play Geopolitics on the Cheap

WSJ · by Georgi Kantchev in Moscow and Warren P. Strobel in Washington

20.  George Orwell is out of copyright. What happens now?

The Guardian · by DJ Taylor · January 1, 2021

----------

"Read the best books first, otherwise you'll find you do not have time."
- Henry David Thoreau

"The chief task in life is simply this: to identify and separate matters so that I can say clearly to myself which are the externals not under my control, and which have to do with the choices I actually control.  Where then do I look for good and evil? Not to uncontrollable externals but within myself to the choices that are my own..."
- Epictetus

'Shall I ask the brave soldier, who fights by my side, In the cause of mankind, if our creeds agree? Shall I give up the friend I have valued and tried, if he kneel not before the same alter as me."
- Thomas Moore

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. S. Koreans put alliance with US before inter-Korean relations

2. North Korea may offer olive branch to US

3. Kim Jong-un's Sister Labelled 'North Korea's Most Outspoken Attack Dog' by Western Media

4. 2021 Won't Be Any Better for North Korea

5.  On a locked-down New Year's Eve, Pyongyang parties

6. Defense chief inspects defense posture in new year

7. Kim Jong Un Keeps Biden Guessing After Skipping New Year Speech

8. Suspected Ganggye Chemical Factory leak pollutes nearby Changja River

9. New virus cases fall below 900, gov't extends current social distancing scheme

1. S. Koreans put alliance with US before inter-Korean relations

donga.com· January 2, 2021

I can say I side with my Korean brethren in South Korea.  I hope this resonates with both the Moon and incoming Biden administrations.  This is an important data point  (that of course confirms my bias so there is that).

Excerpt: "Notably, strengthening alliance with the U.S. has earned a percentage three times higher than the restoration of the inter-Korean relations. While North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to set a direction of this year at the 8th Labor Party Conference, South Korean citizens are already aware that the inter-Korean relations will make little improvement for the time being."

2.  North Korea may offer olive branch to US

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · January 2, 2021

Wishful thinking?  Charlie Brown and Lucy's football?  How many times have we heard this?  How many times have we seen a substantive and sincere effort to improve relations with the US?  

Every time I read this kind of hopeful speculation I have to ask for the answers to this questions/

1. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

2. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. 

I hope i am wrong. I recognize I could be wrong as there are no experts on north Korea and none of us can know what is Kim Jong-un's true intent.  We can only assess and analyze based on history, actions, and words of the regime. I will gladly accept all the criticism of being wrong if Kim Jong-un does demonstrate a sincere effort to improve relations with the US that is not part of his political warfare strategy and long con.

3. Kim Jong-un's Sister Labelled 'North Korea's Most Outspoken Attack Dog' by Western Media

sputniknews.com · by Aleksandra Serebriakova. Sputnik International

Moscow's Sputnik News criticizes Don Kirk and his recent analysis of Kim Yo-jong.

4. 2021 Won't Be Any Better for North Korea

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · January 1, 2021

The headline "prediction" that has the highest chance of being right. But there is more to this article.

This excerpt reminds of something we rarely talk about.  In 1994 when we concluded the Agreed Framework to freeze the regime's nuclear program and trade that for 2 light water nuclear reactors and 500K ton of heavy fuel oil every year we based that on an assumption the dire economic situation in north Korean would result in collapse.  That was a bad assumption though it did lead us to do some planning for the possibility (and those of us who conducted the planning ever predicted if or when the regime would collapse but recognized only that if it did collapse it would be a catastrophic event for the ROK/US alliance, the region, and possibility the international community).  We also assess that while the regime proved extraordinarily resilient it was likely "saved" the ROK's implementation of the Sunshine Policy and the Peace and prosperity Policy from 1997 through 2007.  But we need to consider the conditions are much different now than in 1994-1996 and 1997 through 2007.

Excerpt:

“In other words, the Biden administration will be engaging in self-delusion if it comes into office believing a poor economy will drive the North into doing what it has refused to do for years: hand over the keys to its nuclear kingdom. This doesn't mean Kim would be opposed to other diplomatic arrangements with Washington, such as an interim freeze-for-freeze agreement or a deal fashioned in the traditional mould of an arms control accord. But it does mean that quick, complete, and verified denuclearization is as unlikely in 2021 as it was in 2020.”

5. On a locked-down New Year's Eve, Pyongyang parties

washingtontimes.com · by David R. Sands

No reports of COVID cases, draconian population and resources control measures for the Koreans throughout north Korea and "partying like it is 1999" in Pyongyang.

6. Defense chief inspects defense posture in new year

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · January 2, 2021

Just as an aside, I think "Sejong the Great" is one of the coolest names for a warship.

7. Kim Jong Un Keeps Biden Guessing After Skipping New Year Speech

Bloomberg · by Jon Herskovitz and Jeong-Ho Lee · December 31, 2020

I wanted to highlight this comment from Soo Kim:

"The party congress is Kim Jong Un's one shot at articulating the country's strategy for the new year and sending some signals to the outside world," said Soo Kim, a Rand Corp. policy analyst who previously worked at the Central Intelligence Agency. "I'd think the Party Congress would give us further glimpse into North Korea's weaknesses and the regime's efforts to compensate or deny that these weaknesses exist."

8. Suspected Ganggye Chemical Factory leak pollutes nearby Changja River

dailynk.com · January 1, 2021

Perhaps we could offer the US "Superfund" solution as part of our humanitarian assistance offering.

But on a serious note, what kind of chemicals are being produced at this factory?  I would think they are dual use.

9. New virus cases fall below 900, gov't extends current social distancing scheme

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · January 2, 2021

-----------

"Read the best books first, otherwise you'll find you do not have time." 

- Henry David Thoreau

"The chief task in life is simply this: to identify and separate matters so that I can say clearly to myself which are the externals not under my control, and which have to do with the choices I actually control.  Where then do I look for good and evil? Not to uncontrollable externals but within myself to the choices that are my own..." 

- Epictetus

'Shall I ask the brave soldier, who fights by my side, In the cause of mankind, if our creeds agree? Shall I give up the friend I have valued and tried, if he kneel not before the same alter as me."

- Thomas Moore

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Stop dragging the military into election fights

2. Biden Inherits a Challenging Civil-Military Legacy

3. Employee intentionally removed COVID-19 vaccine from fridge, ruining more than 500 doses, hospital says; FBI investigating

4. The Plague Year

5. White House moves to freeze some foreign aid, defying Congress in Trump’s final days

6. How The US Military Is Handling Covid-19 And What We Can Learn From Their Experience

7. Trump Appointee Seeks Lasting Control Over Radio Free Europe, Radio Free Asia

8. Why China Is Winning Against India

9. NYSE to Delist China’s Major Telecommunications Operators

10. Hong Kong’s Political Prisoners

11. Covid-19 Was Consuming India, Until Nearly Everyone Started Wearing Masks

12. What to Know as Troubled Afghan Peace Talks Enter a New Phase

13. Covid has no grand lesson for the world

14. US’ will to fight boils down to its interests (Taiwan)

15. Joe Biden Must Embrace Liberal Nationalism to Lead America Forward

16. What Is Your Moral Plan for 2021?

1. Stop dragging the military into election fights

Washington Examiner · by Mackubin Owens · January 1, 2021

2. Biden Inherits a Challenging Civil-Military Legacy

warontherocks.com · by Jim Golby and Peter D. Feaver· January 1, 2021

Conclusion: "Notwithstanding all of the other urgent priorities vying for his attention, neglect of the civil-military file would likely impose intolerable costs on Biden down the road — a price that would be vividly evident, sooner or later, when an urgent national security crisis takes center stage. The only prudent course is for the Biden team to attend to both policy and process at the same time — to move out quickly on the pandemic and the economy, while also setting the national security establishment on the path to healthier civil-military relations. Problems in the civil-military foundations of an administration must be fixed before a crisis lays bare the rot that may lie just out of view."

3. Employee intentionally removed COVID-19 vaccine from fridge, ruining more than 500 doses, hospital says; FBI investigating

USA Today · by Ricardo Torres

Why this sabotage?  What was his motive?

4. The Plague Year

The New Yorker · by Lawrence Wright · December 28, 2020

A long and depressing read.

5. White House moves to freeze some foreign aid, defying Congress in Trump’s final days

The Washington Post· by Yeganeh Torbati and John Hudson · December 31, 2020

Excerpt: "The Trump administration, which over its four years in office repeatedly tried to cut foreign aid in its formal budgets only to be rebuffed by Congress, has used the rescission process as a tool to make it harder for the State Department and USAID to spend money. Last year, it tried to use the bureaucratic move to cancel up to $4 billion in foreign aid, but scrapped the plan after facing opposition from Republican and Democratic lawmakers."

6. How The US Military Is Handling Covid-19 And What We Can Learn From Their Experience

Forbes · by William A. Haseltine · December 31, 2020

The question is how does the military fight through the pandemic and still be ready to fight tonight?

7. Trump Appointee Seeks Lasting Control Over Radio Free Europe, Radio Free Asia

NPR · by David Folkenflik · December 30, 2020

If this is accurate it truly saddens me.  This is about partisan agendas and not about accomplishing a critical national security mission.

8. Why China Is Winning Against India

Foreign Policy · by Sushant Singh · January 1, 2021

Conclusion: "It would not have been difficult for Beijing to predict New Delhi’s current predicament. For years, the government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been obsessed with hyping minor operations against Pakistan to reap electoral benefits, putting on the back burner the military transformation required to deal with a rising China. With India’s economy now having entered a recession, such a major reform has become an impossibility. There are no easy answers to India’s China problem. Unless there is a dramatic shift in New Delhi’s thinking, its cure of the Ladakh border crisis may end up being worse than the disease—and that’s exactly what Beijing wants."

9. NYSE to Delist China’s Major Telecommunications Operators

WSJ · by Chong Koh Ping· December 31, 2021

Conclusion: "Other U.S. initiatives could also bring more delistings. Last month, Mr. Trump signed legislation that could have Chinese companies kicked off U.S. markets if American regulators can’t inspect their audits within three years. Some Chinese companies, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc., have already obtained secondary listings in Hong Kong, which could help blunt the impact of such an action."

10. Hong Kong’s Political Prisoners

WSJ · by The Editorial Board· December 31, 2021

Powerful statement here: "Beijing now considers it a criminal offense to attempt to flee persecution in Hong Kong. This is Soviet or North Korean behavior, and we hope that Joe Biden and his officials will speak plainly against it."

11. Covid-19 Was Consuming India, Until Nearly Everyone Started Wearing Masks

WSJ · by Eric Bellman· December 30, 2021

A lesson from India?

12. What to Know as Troubled Afghan Peace Talks Enter a New Phase

The New York Times · by Najim Rahim, Fahim Abed and Fatima Faizi · January 1, 2021

13.  Covid has no grand lesson for the world

Financial Times · by Janan Ganesh · December 29, 2020

Pandemics do not care about politics.

14. US’ will to fight boils down to its interests (Taiwan)

Taipei Times · by Chang Kuo-tsai

The first great "trinity:" fear, honor and interest.

US’ will to fight boils down to its interests

15. Joe Biden Must Embrace Liberal Nationalism to Lead America Forward

The National Interest · by John J. Mearsheimer · December 29, 2020

Quote: "Otto von Bismarck famously quipped that “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.” In this grim situation, Joe Biden (and indeed, all Americans) must hope he was right."

16. What Is Your Moral Plan for 2021?

project-syndicate.org · by Peter Singer & Agata Sagan · December 30, 2020

Some food for thought for all of us to ponder.

---------

“No matter how hard the past, you can always begin again.” 

- Buddha

"The bad news is time flies. The good news is you’re the pilot."

- Michael Altshuler

"Kindness, kindness, kindness. I want to make a New year's prayer, not a resolution. I'm praying for courage." 

- Susan Sontag

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Sends Letter to All People on New Year

2. Defense chief vows full readiness posture for peninsula peace in New Year's message

3. North Korea Says It Wants Good U.S. Ties in Rare Meeting With Western Lawmaker

4. N.Korea holds New Year's Eve show despite COVID-19 restrictions

5. Why North Korea is not Biden's top priority

6. 22nd Political Bureau Pregames 8th Party Congress

7. Anti-Balloon Launching Laws Are No Threat to South Korean Democracy

8. North Korea's Kim Jong Un marks new year with letter, visit to rulers' tomb

9. UNC says 86 messages delivered to N. Korea through Panmunjom communication line

10. Ruling party chief to seek pardons for 2 imprisoned former presidents

11. N.K. leader sends handwritten New Year greetings to people

12. Moderna to begin delivering COVID-19 vaccine to S. Korea in May

13. Locals Suffer as North Korea Ramps up Security on Chinese Border Ahead of Party Congress

14. Two former U.S. service members, spouses test positive for virus

15. What Kim Jong-un Should Say at Korean Workers' Party Congress

16. Kim Jong Un Keeps Biden Guessing After Skipping New Year Speech

17. North Korean Forestlands Have Rebounded in Recent Years

18. Moon pledges to 'get normal lives back' in new year

1. Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Sends Letter to All People on New Year

KCNA Watch · January 1, 2021

I guess this is all we are going to get until the 8th Party Congress.  Not much of a  New year's address.

This is the key line: 

“I offer thanks to the people for having invariably trusted and supported our Party even in the difficult times.

An admission of "difficult times" but trust in and support the party.”

2. Defense chief vows full readiness posture for peninsula peace in New Year's message

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · January 1, 2021

Good message from Minister Suh: "maintain a watertight defense in all directions."

But I question the "momentum" from the 2018 CMA - I do not think there is any momentum because north Korea never sincerely embraced it and executed any substantive confidence or trust building measures.

Regarding OPCON transition I recommend making a commitment to achieving the conditions required for the transition.

3. North Korea Says It Wants Good U.S. Ties in Rare Meeting With Western Lawmaker

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin in Seoul and Laurence Norman· December 31, 2020

A potential diplomatic initiative via Zoom?

Excerpt:  "In the roughly one-hour meeting, the North Korean ambassador repeated a goal of forging a strong relationship with the U.S., so long as Washington's hostile policy to the Kim regime is dropped, the people said. The stance was received positively, one of the people said, as it didn't represent a darkening in Pyongyang's position as President-elect Joe Biden takes office."

We should not forget what the regime demands when it says it wants the US to drop its "hostile policy." It does not want a promise, either verbal or written. It does not want a peace treaty.  What the regime demands is action to end the "hostile policy." It demands an end to the ROK/US alliance, removal of US troops from the peninsula, and an end to extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan.   Anything less than those actions the regime believes the "hostile policy" remains in effect.  We should also think about why it wants the hostile policy dropped.  It is not solely about the security and survival of the Kim family regime.  It is so it can achieve its objectives to dominate the peninsula under the rule of the guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State because that is the only condition that will ensure the survival of Kim and his regime.

4. N.Korea holds New Year's Eve show despite COVID-19 restrictions

uk.reuters.com · by Josh Smith and Heejung Jung

"Celebrations are us" must be one of the mottos of the regime.  Kim just cannot help himself.

5. Why North Korea is not Biden's top priority

dailynk.com · by Sabrine Donohoe · December 31, 2020

Although I focus on north Korea I do not think it should be President-elect Biden’s top priority. It must have sufficient priority and he needs to have a strong Korea team to manage the problem but it cannot be the top priority.

And we have a lot of work to do with our South Korean and other IndoPacific allies.

6. 22nd Political Bureau Pregames 8th Party Congress

nkleadershipwatch.org

A scorecard for observing the 8th Party Congress.

7. Anti-Balloon Launching Laws Are No Threat to South Korean Democracy

Foreign Policy · by S. Nathan Park · December 31, 2020

I strongly disagree with nearly every argument and point in this essay..  This action by South Korea smacks of Benjamin Franklin's famous quote: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." 

This conclusion  is an insult that I take personally.  I have actually lived on the DMZ north of the Imjin river for 3 years and I know what are the threats to the Korean people in the area.

Conclusion: “When the South Korean public sees U.S. experts on the Korean Peninsula-who are supposed to be well versed on these issues-cavalierly dismiss the concerns of more than 1.1 million residents living near the DMZ, they feel viewed as disposable chess pieces in the game of foreign policy, not as human beings who carry on their lives in a community. The leaflet ban may deserve debate, but it should be a better, more rigorous one, with an eye on the health of the overall alliance.”

8. North Korea's Kim Jong Un marks new year with letter, visit to rulers' tomb

straitstimes.com · January 1, 2021

The reports about the letter are longer than the letter itself.

9. UNC says 86 messages delivered to N. Korea through Panmunjom communication line

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · January 1, 2021

It might be good for Yonhap and the press to remind the Korean people that the Senior Member of the UNC Military Armistice Commission is s ROK 2 star general.

Excerpt:

“It appears that the UNC-controlled communication line at the true village remains operational.”

The press makes it seem like the UNC is somehow some organization disconnected from the ROK military but as I said the senior member of the MAC is a ROK 2 star.

10. Ruling party chief to seek pardons for 2 imprisoned former presidents

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · January 1, 2021

Do it now.  I did not expect to read this.  For Moon's sake it would be nice to break the pattern of some former president's going to jail.  There have been 8 presidents since 1980.  Four have gone to jail.  One other might have been charged but took his own life.

11. N.K. leader sends handwritten New Year greetings to people

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · January 1, 2021

So here is a photo of the handwritten note letter from Kim Jong-un.

12. Moderna to begin delivering COVID-19 vaccine to S. Korea in May

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · January 1, 2021

Better late than never I guess.  This is not going to sit well with the Korean people in the South.  Moon will be blamed for this.

13. Locals Suffer as North Korea Ramps up Security on Chinese Border Ahead of Party Congress

rfa.org· by Myunchul Lee

But this is what it is really like for the Korean people living in the north.  I do not think Kim's handwritten New year's letter eases their suffering.

14. Two former U.S. service members, spouses test positive for virus

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 1, 2021

Hopefully none of my retired friends who are living in Korea.

15. What Kim Jong-un Should Say at Korean Workers' Party Congress

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · December 31, 2020

I will be glad to write a letter of recommendation for Doug Bandow to become a senior advisor to Kim Jong-un though I fear he would not long survive offering this kind of advice to the regime! (note attempt at humor).

Mr. Bandow at least acknowledges his recommendations have no historical basis:  "Historically Pyongyang would be unlikely to take such steps, but Kim's ambitions require a dramatic break from the status quo. Kim already has abandoned his father and grandfather's isolationist approach. He emphasized the importance of economic development and participated in international diplomacy. His economic reforms, though seemingly moribund, nevertheless went further than anything before him."

Somehow I cannot see Kim Jong-un accepting these recommendations because they are so counter to the nature of the regime and the objectives and strategy for Kim Jong-un to dominate the peninsula.  But perhaps in some alternate universe Kim would implement these recommendations.

16. Kim Jong Un Keeps Biden Guessing After Skipping New Year Speech

newsmax.com · by Jon Herskovitz and Jeong-Ho Lee · January 1, 2021

No guessing necessary.  Just answer these questions:

Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

17. North Korean Forestlands Have Rebounded in Recent Years

38north.org · by Bruce Songhak Chung · December 31, 2020

I did not expect this.  This is some slightly good news.

Please go to the link to view the imagery.  

18. Moon pledges to 'get normal lives back' in new year

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · January 1, 2021

I hope we can all do that soon.  Unfortunately it will be the proverbial "new normal."

------------

"No matter how hard the past, you can always begin again." 

- Buddha

"The bad news is time flies. The good news is you're the pilot."

- Michael Altshuler

"Kindness, kindness, kindness. I want to make a New year's prayer, not a resolution. I'm praying for courage." 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Hicks Is Biden's Pick For Pentagon Deputy; Kahl For Policy

2. The Nashville Bombing and Threats to Critical Infrastructure: We Saw This Coming

3.  Is the military paying troops too much? Yes and no, study finds

4. Biden national security adviser criticizes Obama's foreign policy for not focusing on middle-class Americans

5. Bracing for a possible Iranian-linked attack in Iraq, U.S. officials warn 'the threat streams are very real'

6. Actions taken by Army secretary, Congress after Spc. Vanessa Guillen's death are insufficient

7. US defense officials divided over potential for Iranian attack on eve of grim anniversary

8. 2 Japan-Based Destroyers Conduct Second Taiwan Strait Transit This Month

9. Special Forces doctor awarded for saving lives despite his own injuries following a motorcycle accident

10. Foreign Aid and Why America Still Needs To Exert 'Soft Power'

11. Trump administration declassifies unconfirmed intel on Chinese bounties

12. The U.S. General Who Steered China Right

13. North Korea claims all targets reached in '80-day campaign'

14. Commanding Ideas: Think Tanks as Platforms for Authoritarian Influence

15. Rural Pastors Tend to Flocks Divided and Isolated by Covid-19

16. Death of Merrill's Marauder veteran leaves only seven survivors of the famed WWII unit

17. Give the Rambo who got Ghosn out of Japan a medal

1. Hicks Is Biden's Pick For Pentagon Deputy; Kahl For Policy

Bill Gates?  I wonder if they meant Robert Gates or Bob Gates?

breakingdefense.com · by Colin Clark and Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.  December 30, 2020

2. The Nashville Bombing and Threats to Critical Infrastructure: We Saw This Coming

warontherocks.com · by Audrey Kurth Cronin · December 31, 2020

From one of our leading scholars and experts on terrorism (as well as Thucydides!) 

3. Is the military paying troops too much? Yes and no, study finds

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · December 29, 2020

I know this is hyperbole, but can you pay someone who is signing a blank check for his/her country enough?

4. Biden national security adviser criticizes Obama's foreign policy for not focusing on middle-class Americans

foxnews.com · by Morgan Phillips

Interesting critique:

“He recently told NPR that the Obama administration did not do enough to tie foreign policy to domestic concerns, particularly concerning economic initiatives.

"I believe that the fact that we did not elevate and center middle-class concerns in our foreign policy and national security meant that we were not delivering for the American people as well as we should have, that we can learn from that, and then we can do better as we go forward," he said.

Biden national security adviser criticizes Obama's foreign policy for not focusing on middle-class Americans”

5. Bracing for a possible Iranian-linked attack in Iraq, U.S. officials warn 'the threat streams are very real'

The Washington Post· by Dan Lamothe · December 30, 2020

Time to fasten our seatbelts?

6. Actions taken by Army secretary, Congress after Spc. Vanessa Guillen's death are insufficient

armytimes.com · by Michelle J. Gradnigo · December 30, 2020

We failed a soldier.  There is no greater shame.

7. US defense officials divided over potential for Iranian attack on eve of grim anniversary

CNN · by Jim Sciutto, Ryan Browne, Barbara Starr and Nicole Gaouette· December 31, 2020

8. 2 Japan-Based Destroyers Conduct Second Taiwan Strait Transit This Month

news.usni.org · by Megan Eckstein · December 30, 2020

9. Special Forces doctor awarded for saving lives despite his own injuries following a motorcycle accident

taskandpurpose.com · by Jared Keller · December 30, 2020

Another inspirational story about a great American that will hopefully offset slightly recent tragedies within our ranks.

10.  Foreign Aid and Why America Still Needs To Exert 'Soft Power'

coffeeordie.com · by Carl Forsling · December 29, 2020

Not a popular argument within the meme wars on social media.

11. Trump administration declassifies unconfirmed intel on Chinese bounties

Axios · by Jonathan Swan,Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

Excerpt: "Why it matters: If this intelligence were to be confirmed, it would represent a dramatic strategic shift for China, and sharply escalate tensions between China and the U.S. If the intelligence does not prove accurate, it raises questions about the motivations of the sources behind it as well as the decision to declassify it."

12. The U.S. General Who Steered China Right

WSJ · by Thomas J. Campanella· December 31, 2020

Some more interesting history.  I guess this is a "whole of society approach."

As an aside I have always wondered why MacArthur did not make the Japanese change from driving on the left to the right.

13. North Korea claims all targets reached in '80-day campaign'

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · December 30, 2020

Will Kim admit any failure?  He seemed to in his October 10th speech though he had external blame for the root causes.  Or is the 80 day campaign meant to show improvement and to make up for those failures?  We are waiting patiently for the speeches announcements, and texts from New years and the 8th Party Congress.

14.  Commanding Ideas: Think Tanks as Platforms for Authoritarian Influence

NED · by Nadège Rolland

The 16 page report can be downloaded at the link above.

15. Rural Pastors Tend to Flocks Divided and Isolated by Covid-19

WSJ · by Ian Lovett · December 30, 2020

In Montana, a Lutheran church tries to stay together, despite spotty internet, long distances and fights over face masks

16. Death of Merrill's Marauder veteran leaves only seven survivors of the famed WWII unit

Stars and Stripes· by Wyatt Olson · December 30, 2020

And then there were seven.

17. Give the Rambo who got Ghosn out of Japan a medal

asiatimes.com · by Roger Schreffler · December 30, 2020

Ughhhh...

---------

"The many are more incorruptible than the few; they are like the greater quantity of water which is less easily corrupted than a little."

- Aristotle 

"We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution." 

- Abraham Lincoln

"To think that because those who wield power in society wield in the end that of government, therefore it is of no use to attempt to influence the constitution of the government by acting on opinion, is to forget that opinion is itself one of the greatest active social forces. One person with a belief is a social power equal to ninety-nine who have only interests."

- John Stuart Mill, Considerations on Representative Government