News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Army Green Beret Charged in Fatal Shooting at Illinois Bowling Alley

2. A Quiet Life, a Thunderous Death, and a Nightmare That Shook Nashville

3. The Pentagon Could Use a Four-Star General on Top

4. Congress gives more power to DoD’s industrial base official

5. The Coming Global Backlash against China (Book Review)

6. ‘Very difficult to defend’: What happens if hackers are inside the Pentagon’s networks?

7. Gray-zone warfare: What can Taiwan do?

8. Rob Bole: USAGM is a unique, underutilized foreign policy tool

9. EDWARD LUCAS: Let's never glamourise traitor George Blake

10. Can Snowden Bamboozle Trump?

11. U.S. hits grim new milestones as coronavirus vaccines are rolled out

12. Scientists Design a Thermochromic Window That Turns Sunlight Into Electricity

13. Duterte’s ‘no vaccine, no VFA’ remark not a blackmail - Palace

14. Duterte should be 'more diplomatic', not threatening US for COVID-19 vaccines: Lacson

15. Waging war below the waves: Special Forces combat diver school is in session

16. Trapped by Thucydides? Updating the Strategic Canon for a Sinocentric Era

17. Assessment of the Use of Poisons as the Weapon of Choice in Putin’s Russia

18. A Military History of Political Wars

19. Petraeus, Crocker: Trump’s pardons to war criminals undermine rule of law, endanger U.S. troops

20. Why these Fox News loyalists have changed the channel to Newsmax

 

1. Army Green Beret Charged in Fatal Shooting at Illinois Bowling Alley

The New York Times · by Christina Morales and Bryan Pietsch · December 27, 2020

Another tragic event overshadowed by the Nashville bombing.  Video at the link.

 

2. A Quiet Life, a Thunderous Death, and a Nightmare That Shook Nashville

The New York Times · by Rick Rojas and Jamie McGee · December 27, 2020

The big question: Motive?

 

3. The Pentagon Could Use a Four-Star General on Top

WSJ · by Stephen Horwitz ·  December 27, 2020

 

4. Congress gives more power to DoD’s industrial base official

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · December 28, 2020

Our industrial base is arguably our most important strategic asset.

 

5. The Coming Global Backlash against China (Book Review)

msn.com · by Helen Raleigh · December 27, 2020

Excerpt:  "But even the most powerful emperor can fly too close to the sun. The dissenting voices inside China are getting louder, while global backlash against China reached new heights in 2019. Then the 2020 coronavirus outbreak stripped the facade of Xi’s powerful image, revealed deep flaws within the CCP’s dictatorial political system, caused immense anger and frustration among Chinese people, brought serious detriments to China’s prestigious international image, and brought China’s seemingly unstoppable rise to a halt. As the prominent Hong Kong entrepreneur Jimmy Lai has written, “The more Mr. Xi pursues his authoritarian agenda, the more distrust he will sow at home and abroad. Far from transforming Beijing into the world’s leading superpower, his policies will instead keep China from taking its rightful place of honor in a peaceful, modern and integrated world.” Xi has misread the situation, overplayed his hand, and his aggressive policies at home and abroad have backfired, proving the saying: Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad."

 

6. ‘Very difficult to defend’: What happens if hackers are inside the Pentagon’s networks?

c4isrnet.com · by Andrew Eversden, Joe Gould, Mark Pomerleau · December 27, 2020

Have the classified networks been penetrated?  Or just the unclassified NIPRNET?

 

7. Gray-zone warfare: What can Taiwan do?

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · December 27, 2020

Excerpts:

“So, what is the solution?

According to Defense One military analysts, there are three major things that could be game-changing:

First, Taiwan must stop spending its scarce defense dollars on expensive conventional weapons. Last year, Taiwan spent more than US$2 billion on 108 M1AT Abrams main battle tanks.

...

Second, Taiwan needs to devote serious resources and political capital into making the innovative Overall Defense Concept a reality. The brainchild of former Admiral Lee, the ODC seeks to reorient the island’s defenses toward a genuinely asymmetric air- and sea-denial posture.

...

Third, Taiwan must overhaul its massive, but increasingly hollow, reserve force. In theory, it can call upon 2.5 million part-time soldiers.”

 

8. Rob Bole: USAGM is a unique, underutilized foreign policy tool

mountainrunner.us · by Rob Bole

I fear the reason is the political leadership's (political appointees) lack of understanding of the mission and capabilities of VOA, RFA, RFE, RL etc.

As an aside, I just had to say goodbye to a very good VOA journalist over the Christmas holiday whose Visa was not renewed due to USAGM policy.   He does not fall into any of the categories given for reasons for not renewing Visas.  He was just caught up in the blanket halting of renewals.  Truly a sad situation.

Key excerpts:

“In a 2016 interview, the President-elect said “it all gets down to the conduct of foreign policy being personal… All foreign policy is, is a logical extension of personal relationships, with a lot less information to act on.” For many countries, the Voice of America and other networks of USAGM represents the authentic voice of Americans and counters the propaganda of their own governments.

The availability of factual and balanced information from legitimate, or straight news, sources is ever more important as authoritarian leaders around the world have used the freedom of the digital age to create a powerful class of disinformation: the near dominance of opinion over facts, #fakenews, filter bubbles, corrosive memes, phishing, hacking and hate speech.

These autocratic governments have seen the Trump Administration validate their own tactics in U.S. domestic politics. This has further emboldened authoritarian leaders – from Bolsanaro in Brazil to Orban in Hungary – to close independent media and reduce free speech. The result is that USAGM has lost trust and influence as a voice for truth and an example of promoting democratic ideas, as was intended and the most significant test yet to USAGM’s purpose.”

 

9. Edward Lucas: Let's never glamourise traitor George Blake

Daily Mail · by Edward Lucas · December 27, 2020

We should keep this conclusion in mind about a true believer in communism.

 

10. Can Snowden Bamboozle Trump?

WSJ · by The Editorial Board

I certainly hope not.  This is one person who should never receive a pardon.  He has done tremendous damage to US national security even if he did expose some abuses.

Some of POTUS' closest advisors think he is a traitor.

 

11. U.S. hits grim new milestones as coronavirus vaccines are rolled out

Axios · by Axios

These are amazing and troubling statistics (in my opinion):

“The New York Times notes this means "at least 1 in 17" Americans have tested positive for the virus during the pandemic. The Census Bureau estimated the U.S. population to be about 330,750,000 for the last week of December, per CNN. That means the virus has killed roughly one in every 1,000 in the U.S.”

 

12. Scientists Design a Thermochromic Window That Turns Sunlight Into Electricity

mymodernmet.com · by Samantha Pires · December 27, 2020

If this works and ever becomes practical a "game changer" will be an understatement.  Then again who really believes in science or that science makes the world a better place? (note sarcasm - but I read so much dfrmo the science naysayers on social media.)

 

13. Duterte’s ‘no vaccine, no VFA’ remark not a blackmail - Palace

newsinfo.inquirer.net · by Krissy Aguilar · December 28, 2020

The Palace tris to walk back Duterte's idiotic remarks.

 

14.  Duterte should be 'more diplomatic', not threatening US for COVID-19 vaccines: Lacson

news.abs-cbn.com · by Katrina Domingo, ABS-CBN News

Senator Lacson knows the deal.

 

15.  Waging war below the waves: Special Forces combat diver school is in session

Washington Examiner · by Abraham Mahshie · December 26, 2020

 

16. Trapped by Thucydides? Updating the Strategic Canon for a Sinocentric Era

warontherocks.com · by John Sullivan · December 28, 2020

Conclusion: 

"Thucydides’ work has earned its exalted status in the study of strategic thought. However, analysis of other cultures’ struggles to achieve peace and security in roughly comparable eras of great power competition might stimulate new thinking on old problems. As Confucius once noted, “If you can revive the ancient and use it to understand the modern, then you’re worthy to be a teacher.” In that effort, we should resist limiting the scope of our inquiries to only Western historical examples. Through study and synthesis of the failures and shortcomings of all of our distant forefathers, we might gain wisdom to forge a new and better path forward."

 

17.  Assessment of the Use of Poisons as the Weapon of Choice in Putin’s Russia

divergentoptions.org · by Rylee Boyd · December 28, 2020

Conclusion:

"The use of poison as the weapon of choice against Moscow’s political enemies is a strategic choice as a weapon that causes more than just death or serious illness. While denying Russia its stores of chemical weapon stores and ensuring poison attacks can be attributed and followed by consequences, is an obvious solution, this is easier said than done."

 

18. A Military History of Political Wars

mwi.usma.edu · by Paul Barnes · December 28, 2020

Excerpt: 

“Blood, Metal and Dust is enigmatic. It is a history written without comprehensive access to either unreleased archives or the views of the opposing side, a commentary that on occasion lacks political balance; but it is an easy and compelling read that includes insights from some of the most influential US and British soldiers of the era. In those circumstances, it should be viewed cautiously as a valuable primer for anyone engaging with the subject of the ongoing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, particularly for those interested in military adaptation, but it should not be accepted uncritically. Ben Barry’s military analysis is strong, as one might expect from a career soldier who commanded an armored infantry formation in Bosnia in the 1990s. Fundamentally, he understands and articulates the experience of war well; as the senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, he is also well placed to talk about military transformation. Overall, this book is highly recommended now, it articulates the zeitgeist; whether it remains relevant is, like the wars it narrates, yet to be determined.”

 

19.  Petraeus, Crocker: Trump’s pardons to war criminals undermine rule of law, endanger U.S. troops

Philadelphia Inquirer · by Trudy Rubin

This will go into the category of one of the biggest mistakes of the Trump presidency.

 

20. Why these Fox News loyalists have changed the channel to Newsmax

The Washington Post · December 27, 2020

These are cult like actions.

 

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"Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule -- and both commonly succeed, and are right."

- H.L. Mencken 

 

"The best cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy."

- Edward Abbey

 

"The ballot is stronger than the bullet."

- Abraham Lincoln  

 

"The future is best decided by ballots, not bullets"

- Ronald Reagan 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Nashville bombing suspect's possible ties to 5G conspiracy theory investigated - reports

2. The Chinese Communist Party vs Western liberalism (Book Review)

3. Intelligence and Vietnam (II): Return of The Top Secret 1969 State Department Study

4. FBI: White supremacists plotted attack on US power grid

5. China at the center of Asia

6. Uighur Diaspora Hails Removal of ETIM From US Terror List

7. “We don’t need any more lines and arrows”

8. Duterte to US: No vaccine, no VFA

9. Opinion: A stable world order relies on terror groups being crushed in Africa

10. Indonesian terror chief reveals JI secrets

11. A ‘Bulletproof’ Criminal VPN Was Taken Down in a Global Sting

12. What Made George Blake Tick?

13. John le Carré: The Novelist Who Demystified Cold War Spying

14. The University as the Woke Mission Field: A Dissident Women's Studies Ph.D. Speaks Out

15. Perspective | We teach students how to understand the U.S., not to love it - or hate it

 

1. Nashville bombing suspect's possible ties to 5G conspiracy theory investigated - reports

Newsweek · by Ewan Palmer · December 27, 2020

Did another foolish conspiracy theory drive the Nashville bombing?

 

2. The Chinese Communist Party vs Western liberalism (Book Review)

asiatimes.com · by Scott Foster · December 25, 2020

Conclusion:

“And while Prestowitz thinks incoming President Biden’s first priority should be warning America and the world about the threat from China, domestic issues seem likely to take precedence.

Nevertheless, an advocate must advocate. To better understand both the challenge posed by China and the thoughts of an influential participant in the debate in Washington, DC, read this book.”

 

3. Intelligence and Vietnam (II): Return of The Top Secret 1969 State Department Study

nsarchive.gwu.edu · December 27, 2020

Some interesting history from the National Archives at George Washington University.  Students and researchers may be interested in this.  INR is one of the most unsung organizations in the intelligence community.

Other than East Asia Pacific, the two organizations in the State department I would have enjoyed working in are INR and Policy Planning.

 

4. FBI: White supremacists plotted attack on US power grid

AP · by Amy Forliti · December 22, 2020

 

5. China at the center of Asia

asiatimes.com · by Francesco Sisci · December 26, 2020

This is reprinted from nearly 20 years ago.  A fascinating read given today's world.

 

6. Uighur Diaspora Hails Removal of ETIM From US Terror List

voanews.com · by Reuters

 

7. “We don’t need any more lines and arrows”

carryingthegun.com · by DG · December 27, 2020

I strongly recommend listening to the three podcasts by seven of our Regiment's senior NCOs.  Two great quotes in the article below.

The podcasts can be accessed here. 

 

8. Duterte to US: No vaccine, no VFA

globalnation.inquirer.net · by Darryl John Esguerra · December 26, 2020

Do we give into blackmail?  I think Duterte is trying to cut off his nose to spite his face.  The Philippines is our longest standing treaty ally.

 

9. Opinion: A stable world order relies on terror groups being crushed in Africa

The Globe and Mail · by Robert Rotberg · December 26, 2020

Quite the provocative title that is surely open to debate.

Conclusion:

“The incoming U.S. administration should not shirk its already limited extensions of American military involvement, especially since al-Shabab has revealed its intentions to attack U.S. cities; earlier this month, a Kenyan Somali accused of planning to pilot an aircraft into buildings in the U.S. was brought to New York for trial.

Once again, containing a key Islamic State and al-Qaeda outpost is a critical goal of world order. Mr. Biden’s administration can improve chances of world peace, minimize hunger, and reduce flows of migrants and drugs into Europe by joining allies in keeping Islamists at bay, if not on the run. Now is not the time to pull back from Somalia, Mozambique, or the Sahel.”

 

10. Indonesian terror chief reveals JI secrets

au.news.yahoo.com · by Cindy Wockner and Komang Erviani· December 26, 2020

Some fascinating and important information revealed.

 

11. A ‘Bulletproof’ Criminal VPN Was Taken Down in a Global Sting

Wired · by Lily Hay Newman

Excerpt:  

“On Tuesday, Europol, the US Department of Justice, and other international law enforcement agencies announced a coordinated sting against a virtual private network, Safe-Inet, which is popular with ransomware groups, spearphishers, and stolen data vendors. The effort involved seizing three domains used to distribute the VPN—safe-inet.com, safe-inet.net and insorg.org—and neutering other parts of its infrastructure, so users can't access the service and visitors to the sites simply see law enforcement notifications of their removal. Officials did not provide details about which hacking groups used the VPN, but they said it specialized in “bulletproof” protection, meaning the VPN was tailored to supporting uninterrupted criminal campaigns and ignoring or attempting to diffuse abuse complaints and even law enforcement requests. “Criminals can run, but they cannot hide from law enforcement, and we will continue working tirelessly together with our partners to outsmart them,” Edvardas Šileris, head of Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre, said in a statement.”

 

12. What Made George Blake Tick?

spytalk.co · by David Charney

Another interesting read.

 

13. John le Carré: The Novelist Who Demystified Cold War Spying

Politico · by Michiko Kakutani · December 26, 2020

Some more Sunday reading for perspective.

 

14. The University as the Woke Mission Field: A Dissident Women's Studies Ph.D. Speaks Out

newdiscourses.com · Samantha Jones · December 22, 2020

A very provocative essay:

“Lastly, I have focused mostly on academia and education because this is the sector I know best, but I strongly urge everyone, from all walks of life, to embrace your sense of humor (a quality that is conspicuously absent in woke culture). Wokeness should continue to relentlessly mocked and parodied through meme culture (Andrew Doyle’s Titania McGrath is a great example). Just as important: Be courageous. Stand up for the beliefs that have made America a great country. If you hear people treating others as members of groups, articulate the importance of treating people as individuals. As Jordan Peterson put it, “The smallest minority is the individual.” If you encounter people treating others badly because of their gender or skin color, say that this behavior is morally wrong. If you see people attempting to “cancel” others, articulate why this is a terrible way to treat others. If you witness attacks on freedom of speech and advocacy of censorship, or if you meet people who are in favor of “hate speech” laws, or laws to combat “misinformation” (a code word for non-leftist ideas), articulate why freedom of speech is an absolutely essential and non-negotiable value. If you hear people discussing why they think socialism is great, take a stand for free markets and the prosperity they have produced. If you hear people calling for retributive justice and political violence, push against it and discuss why violence is never acceptable. If you encounter attacks on meritocracy, make a case for why merit is essential to the advancement of individuals and societies. I think a lot of liberals, like me, generally, if not naively, assumed that the liberal values underpinning America would simply continue throughout our lives, but these values are under attack and they need to be vigorously and unapologetically defended. Our civilization is at stake and the hour is late.”

 

15. Perspective | We teach students how to understand the U.S., not to love it - or hate it

The Washington Post · by Daniel Immerwahr · December 23, 2020

This should be the ideal but I fear there are extremists on both sides who want to generate feelings of hatred for our history and country, and on the other hand, feelings of blind patriotism.

But we should keep this conclusion in mind.  As I recall my history classes from high school and college (now more than forty years ago) I believe teachers and professors, like my high school history teacher Mr. Fischer, were trying to prepare me and my fellow students for living in our country with all its warts and greatness.

 

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Quotes of the Day:

 

"I hope that in this year to come, you make mistakes. Because if you are making mistakes, then you are making new things, trying new things, learning, living, pushing yourself, changing yourself, changing your world."

- Neil Gaiman

 

“Respect for ourselves guides our morals; respect for others guides our manners." 

- Laurence Sterne

 

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

- Isaac Asimov

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. FOLLOW-UP 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era

2. No public diplomatic events for Kim Jong-un in 2020

3. Rehearsals Fill Kim Il Sung Square on Saturday

4. [Heroes from afar] Dutch troops volunteered on Korean War front line

5.  New virus cases under 1,000, tougher pandemic rules under consideration  (South Korea)

6. Can South Korea lift the world’s lowest birth rate by offering cash incentives?

7. Is North Korea's silent leader planning a surprise for Biden?

 

1. FOLLOW-UP 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era

donga.com · December 26, 2020

So I have searched the CFR web site and communicated with Scott Snyder.  He is unaware of this report that he supposedly authored.  Note also Scott left the Center for US-Korea Policy at the Asia Foundation some 10 years ago. I also searched the Asia Foundation web site and found nothing. Neither of us are sure about what report the Donga Ilbo article below is referencing.  But I stand by our recommendations for the incoming Biden administration. 

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: David Maxwell <[email protected]>
Date: Sat, Dec 26, 2020 at 8:30 AM
Subject: 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era
To:

 

I have not found the book on the CFR website but when I do I will forward the link.  Scott did not ask my colleague Mathew Ha and me for our input. But here is a sneak preview of Mathew's and my assessment that will be coming out next month soon as part of a comprehensive FDD assessment of the last four years and recommendations for the way ahead.  Here are just the bullet recommendations that will be in our assessment.  You will have to wait for publication for the details.  We did base our recommendations on this excerpt from President elect Biden's OpEd he published in Yonhap on October 30th just before the election.  Note this is the only Oped I am aware of that he published in a foreign new publication before the election which I think is a positive sign of the importance he places on the ROK/US alliance to US national interests.

 

“Words matter – and a president’s words matter even more. As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops. I'll engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula, while working to reunite Korean Americans separated from loved ones in North Korea for decades.”^[1] 

 

·      Develop an Alliance Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: (One key point: Through the existing State Department-Ministry of Foreign Affairs strategy working group reassess strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime so the alliance recognizes Kim’s determination to dominate the Korean peninsula.  Also focus on solving the "Korea question.")

·      Impose a “maximum pressure 2.0” campaign integrating not only sanctions, but also other critical levers of U.S. and allied power: (especially including information and influence activities)

·      Make human rights a priority:

·      Despite past failures due to Kim Jong-un’s recalcitrance, continue efforts to establish a substantive working-level dialogue between the United States and North Korea: 

·      Encourage Chinese and Russian support for denuclearization while holding them accountable for ongoing violations of UN sanctions they claim to support: 

·      Strengthen allied military posture: 

·      Stabilize the Special Measures Agreement (cost sharing) process:

·      Coordinate a comprehensive strategy for North Korean cyber-attacks:

 

2. No public diplomatic events for Kim Jong-un in 2020

The Korea Times· by Do Je-hae · December 27, 2020

But what will 2021 bring?

Perhaps for Kim it is summits or nothing.

 

3. Rehearsals Fill Kim Il Sung Square on Saturday

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · December 26, 2020

Something for us to look forward to while we make our guesses as to what might happen and what is Kim Jong-un's intent.

 

4. [Heroes from afar] Dutch troops volunteered on Korean War front line

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Esther Chung · December 27, 2020

Thanks to and respect for our Dutch Allies.  We should be pleased that the Joongang Ilbo is publishing these retrospectives because it helps to reinforce the importance of the United Nations Command as well as our alliances.

 

5.  New virus cases under 1,000, tougher pandemic rules under consideration

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · December 27, 2020

 

6. Can South Korea lift the world’s lowest birth rate by offering cash incentives?

SCMP · by David D. Lee · December 27, 2020

This is a major national security threat to South Korea.

 

7. Is North Korea's silent leader planning a surprise for Biden?

asia.nikkei.com

All warfare is based on deception, perhaps particularly political warfare which of course is what Kim Jong-un is conducting.

More speculation on what the Biden administration strategy may be.

----------

 

"I hope that in this year to come, you make mistakes. Because if you are making mistakes, then you are making new things, trying new things, learning, living, pushing yourself, changing yourself, changing your world."

- Neil Gaiman

 

“Respect for ourselves guides our morals; respect for others guides our manners." 

- Laurence Sterne

 

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way  through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

- Isaac Asimov

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Japan official, calling Taiwan 'red line,' urges Biden to 'be strong'

2. Opinion | China’s atrocities in Tibet are growing too big to ignore

3. China's Economy Set to Overtake U.S. Earlier Due to Covid Fallout

4. George Blake: Soviet Cold War spy and former MI6 officer dies in Russia

5. Commentary: Facing 21st century security challenges in Philippines

6. US military school West Point rocked by major cheating scandal

7. Opinion | Leave the Foreign Service to the Pros

8. Russian hackers compromised Microsoft cloud customers through third party, putting emails and other data at risk

9. Is Amazon the next anti-trust target after Alibaba?

10. Could a US-led Quad add up to an Asian NATO against China?

11. U.S.-Trained Afghan Fighter Pilot Is in Hiding After Being Denied Safe Passage

12. Ethics in Special Operations and the Joint Special Operations Forces Senior Enlisted Academy

13. Typhon’s Song: Examining Russia’s Employment of COVID-19 Disinformation to Generate Disruptive Effects

14. Vaccine Rollout Presenting States With Questions Over Race and Access

15. Misinformation about the vaccine could be worse than disinformation about the elections

16. Social Media and the Problem of the Iceberg Bias

17. The CDC’s failed race against covid-19: A threat underestimated and a test overcomplicated

18. Why We Can’t Stop Longing for the Good Old Days

 

1. Japan official, calling Taiwan 'red line,' urges Biden to 'be strong'

taiwannews.com.tw · by Ju-min Park

Excerpts:

“There’s a red line in Asia - China and Taiwan,” Nakayama said, citing a red line that former president Barack Obama declared over Syria’s use of chemical weapons - a line Damascus then crossed. Biden was Obama’s vice president.

“How will Joe Biden in the White House react in any case if China crosses this red line?” said Nakayama, who attended a memorial for the late former Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui in August, before taking his defence position. “The United States is the leader of the democratic countries. I have a strong feeling to say: America, be strong!”

 

2. Opinion | China’s atrocities in Tibet are growing too big to ignore

The Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · December 24, 2020

It is not just Xinjiang.  Excerpt: “When it comes to human rights violations in China, Tibet was Patient Zero,” Lobsang Sangay, the president of the Tibetan government in exile, known as the Central Tibetan Administration, told me during a visit to Washington last week. “Xi Jinping is now reintroducing labor camps back into Tibet . . . what’s new is the speed and the scale of it and the military style that they are bringing to it.”

 

3. China's Economy Set to Overtake U.S. Earlier Due to Covid Fallout

Bloomberg · by Lizzy Burden · December 26, 2020

Graphics at the link.  

 

4. George Blake: Soviet Cold War spy and former MI6 officer dies in Russia

BBC · by News

I wonder if he left behind any writings on his thoughts of the USSR collapsing and losing the Cold War.

 

5. Commentary: Facing 21st century security challenges in Philippines

philstar.com · by Renato Cruz De Castro

An interesting Philippine perspective.  I recall in 2001. just after 9-11, when I participated in the TCAV assessment of the Philippines led by LTG (RET) Fridovich, that when the Philippine government provided their national security strategy and policy for assessment there was no mention of China as a national security threat.  

 

6. US military school West Point rocked by major cheating scandal

chinadaily.com.cn

Interestingly they do not list MacArthur among the notable alumni but I guess it is because they are only republishing an AFP report and this is not a "China perspective."  I wonder if we will see anything from China in their "opinion pages."

 

7. Opinion | Leave the Foreign Service to the Pros

The New York Times · by Carol Shurman · December 25, 2020

Three interesting letters to the editor from the NY Times.

 

8. Russian hackers compromised Microsoft cloud customers through third party, putting emails and other data at risk

The Washington Post· by Ellen Nakashima · December 25, 2020

Excerpts:

“Our investigation of recent attacks has found incidents involving abuse of credentials to gain access, which can come in several forms,” Jeff Jones, Microsoft’s senior director for communications, said. “We have still not identified any vulnerabilities or compromise of Microsoft product or cloud services.”

The troubling revelation comes several days after Microsoft’s president, Brad Smith, said the Fortune 500 company had not seen any customers breached through its services, including the vaunted Azure cloud platform used by governments, major corporations and universities worldwide.

“I think we can give you a blanket answer that affirmatively states, no, we are not aware of any customers being attacked through Microsoft’s cloud services or any of our other services, for that matter, by this hacker,” Smith told The Washington Post on Dec. 17.

...

“I want a throat to choke on this thing — I’m angry that they got us, but the reality is the Russians pulled off a highly targeted, complex and probably expensive cyber intrusion that was a sophisticated espionage operation,” said Rep. Jim Langevin (D-R.I.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee who co-chairs the Congressional Cybersecurity Caucus.

The breaches are akin to the Russians placing moles in multiple places in high levels of the government, Langevin said, adding that the U.S. government should respond as it would to a physical espionage campaign. “We could expel diplomats or suspected spies, or perhaps impose sanctions,” he said. “But we also want to be careful that we don’t destabilize the Internet or our own espionage operations.”

 

9. Is Amazon the next anti-trust target after Alibaba?

asiatimes.com · by David P. Goldman · December 24, 2020

An interesting comparison.

Excerpts:

“But whatever the personality or political issues may have been, the underlying economic problem in China is the same as the one that US and European regulators are trying to address.

“Amazon’s pattern of exploiting sellers, enabled by its market dominance, raises serious competition concerns,” the House Committee claimed in an October 2020 report. The House allegations closely resemble the concerns of Chinese regulators, who have focused on Alibaba’s policy of forcing merchants to use its platform exclusively, among other alleged abuses, including selling below cost to crush rivals.”

 

10. Could a US-led Quad add up to an Asian NATO against China?

scmp.com · by Rachel Zhang· December 26, 2020

I think it is a false comparison. Rather than trying to make the Quad like NATO we need to develop the Quad based on the unique collective security and collective economic protection requirements that exist in Asia.  Economic protection against a mutual predatory economic threat was never a concern for NATO. That alone makes the Quad very different than NATO.  In addition, it is unlikely that there will ever be a collective security military organization built along the lines of NATO in Asia.  But NATO falls into the same category as the Marshall Plan and Goldwater-Nichols - we need a Marshall Plan for this problem and a Goldwater Nichols for that problem and we a NATO in Asia.

 

11. U.S.-Trained Afghan Fighter Pilot Is in Hiding After Being Denied Safe Passage

WSJ · by Sune Engel Rasmussen

 

12. Ethics in Special Operations and the Joint Special Operations Forces Senior Enlisted Academy

Small Wars Journal· by Christopher Hughes, John Labuz, Joseph Long, and Kari A. Thyne

 

13. Typhon’s Song: Examining Russia’s Employment of COVID-19 Disinformation to Generate Disruptive Effects

Small Wars Journal · by Matthew A. Lauder,

 

14. Vaccine Rollout Presenting States With Questions Over Race and Access

WSJ · by Ian Lovett and Jimmy Vielkind· December 26, 2020

Excerpts:

“But as the first doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are being administered across the country, states are still wrestling with how and when the vaccine will be made available to those hard-hit communities.

Some states say they are focused on outreach, in the hopes of making sure that people of color aren’t left behind as the vaccine is distributed more widely.”

 

15. Misinformation about the vaccine could be worse than disinformation about the elections

Politico· December 21, 2020

An ominous warning.  Election disinformation has been unbelievably rampant and effective.

 

16. Social Media and the Problem of the Iceberg Bias

fromthegreennotebook.com · by Joe Byerly · December 26, 2020

Some useful food for thought.

Conclusion:

“Take this article for example, every word I typed in the preceding paragraph was carefully chosen.

As we head into a new year, I’m writing this to remind all of us that before we form positive or negative opinions of others, we should get to know them first. We should also avoid using social media as a mirror for our lives. We do an injustice to ourselves when we compare our own icebergs to the sheer veneer of gleaming, snow-covered ice other people choose to show. Finally, I charge you to think about your brand and the reality you’re willing to lay bare. Do you include any of the sharp, treacherous edges that lie just below the surface?”

 

17. The CDC’s failed race against covid-19: A threat underestimated and a test overcomplicated

The Washington Post· by David Wilman · December 26, 2020

Yes, mistakes have been made. The key question is whether we learn from them?

 

18. Why We Can’t Stop Longing for the Good Old Days

WSJ · by Johan Norberg

We can only move forward. We cannot go backwards.

Excerpts:

“…dangerous to those who lived through them? One possibility is that we know we survived past dangers—otherwise we wouldn’t be here—so in retrospect they seem smaller. But we can never be certain we will solve the problems we are facing today. Radio didn’t end up ruining the younger generation, but maybe the smartphone will. We didn’t destroy the planet with nuclear weapons during the Cold War, but who can say for sure that we won’t do it this time around?

Another reason is that historical nostalgia is often colored by personal nostalgia. When were the good old days? Was it, by chance, the incredibly short period in human history when you happened to be young? A U.S. poll found that people born in the 1930s and 1940s thought the 1950s was America’s best decade, while those born in the 1960s and 1970s preferred the 1980s. In the 1980s, the popular TV show “Happy Days” was set in a nostalgic version of the 1950s; today, the popular series “Stranger Things” fondly conjures the fashion and music of the 1980s.

 

--------

 

"It is no weakness for the wisest man to learn when he is wrong." 

- Sophocles

 

 “Returning hate for hate multiplies hate, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate, only love can do that.” 

- Martin Luther King, Jr.

 

 "When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hang on."

 - Franklin D. Roosevelt

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. South Korea reports record surge on Christmas Day

2. Undeclared North Korea: The Kal-gol Missile Operating Base

3. N. Korean leader makes fewest public appearances this year: data

4. Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea: What's Ahead for the Biden Administration?

5. After early success, S. Korea sleepwalks into virus crisis

6. First shipment of COVID-19 vaccine arrives for U.S. troops in S. Korea

7. Authorities in talks about KATUSA troops getting USFK's COVID-19 vaccine: official

8. U.S. Human Rights Commission chair slams S. Korean ruling party

9. Kim Jong Un smirks carried away in triumph

10. 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era

11. North Korea HORROR: Kim using re-education camps to test chemical weapons on Christians

12. Korea's Artificial Sun Sets World Record After Running At 100 Million Degrees For 2 Seconds

13. China probes S. Korean tanker over suspicion of smuggling refined oil: embassy

 

1. South Korea reports record surge on Christmas Day

asiatimes.com · by AT Contributor · December 25, 2020

Excerpt:

“Up to 70% of the fresh cases came from the greater Seoul area, home to half the country's 52 million people.

In an attempt to contain the rising infection numbers, from Wednesday private social gatherings of more than four people in the greater Seoul area were banned until January 3 by officials.

South Korea reports record surge on Christmas Day

A record 1,241 new infections were recorded on Friday, mostly from the greater Seoul region.”

 

2. Undeclared North Korea: The Kal-gol Missile Operating Base

beyondparallel.csis.org · by Joseph Bermudez · December 24, 2020

The latest analysis from CSIS and Joe Bermudez. 

See the entire report with Imagery and graphics are at the link.   

I will leave it to the missile experts to assess.  However, one key point that I think we should take away from this.  The investment it appears the north is making in these missile capabilities clearly indicates the north is focusing on continued development of offensive warfighting capabilities.  This supports the regime's objective to be able to attack the South and dominate the peninsula under the rule of Kim Jong-un to ensure survival of the Kim family regime.  

When we talk about the end of war declaration or a peace agreement we must consider north Korean military capabilities and probable intent despite what they say at the negotiating table.

 

3. N. Korean leader makes fewest public appearances this year: data

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · December 25, 2020

It was an unusual year.  What was he doing during his relatively prolonged absences? 

 

4. Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea: What's Ahead for the Biden Administration?

usip.org· by Frank Aurm and Joseph Yun · December 25, 2020

This is the key point: "Even if Biden is open to meetings without preconditions, there is no guarantee that Pyongyang will engage since it has rebuffed this exact approach from the Trump administration since October 2019."

 

5. After early success, S. Korea sleepwalks into virus crisis

AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung · December 26, 2020

A good overview of the challenges in South Korea, what might have gone wrong and why lies ahead.

 

6. First shipment of COVID-19 vaccine arrives for U.S. troops in S. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 김광태 · December 25, 2020

On Christmas Day.  A Christmas present for USFK.

 

7. Authorities in talks about KATUSA troops getting USFK's COVID-19 vaccine: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · December 26, 2020

Previous reports made it seem like it was already confirmed that KATUSAs and Korean civilians working for USFK would receive the vaccine.  I hope we are going to provide it to them. I cannot imagine the Korean military or government denying this for them and I cannot imagine us not vaccinating those who are going to fight side by side US forces in US units.  Would we deny blood or lifesaving medical treatment to a KATUSA if he was wounded in combat if we were at war with north Korea?  Of course technically there is still a state of war on the Korean peninsula that has only been temporarily suspended when both sides agreed to the Armistice.

 

8. U.S. Human Rights Commission chair slams S. Korean ruling party

donga.com· December 26, 2020

Alliance friction is going to rise significantly over the poor decision by the Korean National Assembly and Moon Administration to enact the "Leaflet ban law" AKA the "Kim Yo-jong law."  I do not think the Moon administration understands how severely it has miscalculated .  And what is even more egregious than the violation of human r rights and personal liberty is the rationale for the law - the stated rationale is to protect Korean citizens in the frontline area and to prevent war.  The unstated reason is to engender a positive response from the regime for north-South engagement and even a return to nuclear talks.  In actuality the north views the "Kim Yo-jong law" as a success for its blackmail diplomacy and political warfare strategy and it will be doubling down.

And it has the added benefit of forcing not only a wedge in the ROK/US alliance but making South Korea an outlier among the community of democracies.

 

9. Kim Jong Un smirks carried away in triumph

donga.com· December 26, 2020

Keep the first paragraph in mind.  The Moon administration believes it has cleared the way for north-South talks by passing the "Kim Yo-jong law."  My assessment is if the north does engage the South it will be to make even greater demands on the ROK for more concessions beyond the law.  The regime believes its blackmail diplomacy will get the concessions it needs.

The buried lede is the proposal by Jung and endorsed by MOU Lee that the ROK/US military training in February/March should be suspended or reduced.   The regime is saying, "wow, we do not even have to make this demand, the MOU is anticipating what we will demand and willing to give it to us without asking - we can now move on to the next demands." 

There is danger ahead.

 

10. 29 experts forecast inter-Korean relations during Biden era

donga.com· December 26, 2020

I have not found the book on the CFR website but when I do I will forward the link.  Scott did not ask my colleague Mathew Ha and me for our input. But here is a sneak preview of Mathew's and my assessment that will be coming out next month soon as part of a comprehensive FDD assessment of the last four years and recommendations for the way ahead.  Here are just the bullet recommendations that will be in our assessment.  You will have to wait for publication for the details.  We did base our recommendations on this excerpt from President elect Biden's OpEd he published in Yonhap on October 30th just before the election.  Note this is the only Oped I am aware of that he published in a foreign new publication before the election which I think is a positive sign of the importance he places on the ROK/US alliance to US national interests.

"Words matter - and a president's words matter even more. As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops. I'll engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula, while working to reunite Korean Americans separated from loved ones in North Korea for decades."[1] 

• Develop an Alliance Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: (One key point: Through the existing State Department-Ministry of Foreign Affairs strategy working group reassess strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime so the alliance recognizes Kim's determination to dominate the Korean peninsula.  Also focus on solving the "Korea question.")
• Impose a "maximum pressure 2.0" campaign integrating not only sanctions, but also other critical levers of U.S. and allied power: (especially including information and influence activities)
• Make human rights a priority:
• Despite past failures due to Kim Jong-un's recalcitrance, continue efforts to establish a substantive working-level dialogue between the United States and North Korea: 
• Encourage Chinese and Russian support for denuclearization while holding them accountable for ongoing violations of UN sanctions they claim to support: 
• Strengthen allied military posture: 
• Stabilize the Special Measures Agreement (cost sharing) process:
• Coordinate a comprehensive strategy for North Korean cyber-attacks:

 

11. North Korea HORROR: Kim using re-education camps to test chemical weapons on Christians

Express · by Bill McLoughlin · December 26, 2020

I have rhetorically asked how the north perfected the VX assassination of Kim Jong-nam.  My guess is they tested the dosage and application techniques on prisoners in the gulags.  This is another reason why human rights is a national security issue in addition to being a moral imperative.

 

12. Korea's Artificial Sun Sets World Record After Running At 100 Million Degrees For 2 Seconds

unilad.co.uk

If South Korea perfects this I think "game changing" could be an understatement.

 

13. China probes S. Korean tanker over suspicion of smuggling refined oil: embassy

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · December 26, 2020

The old "Admit nothing, deny everything, make counter accusations."   Is this the Chinese making counter accusations?

But both the Chinese and South Koreans say this is unrelated to north Korean sanctions.  There must be more to the story.

 

----------

 

"It is no weakness for the wisest man to learn when he is wrong." 

- Sophocles

 

 "Returning hate for hate multiplies hate, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate, only love can do that." 

- Martin Luther King, Jr.

 

 "When you reach the end of your rope, tie a knot in it and hang on."

 - Franklin D. Roosevelt

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Has Navalny's Prank Shattered the FSB Myth Once and For All?

2. Split Up NSA and CYBERCOM

3. No, China Did Not 'Expel' a US Warship from its Territory, Navy Says

4. A pandemic atlas: How COVID-19 took over the world in 2020

5. 5 Places You'll Most Likely Catch COVID, According to Dr. Gupta

6. COVID Symptoms Normally Appear in This Order, Study Finds

7.  Hey, soldiers and spies - think twice about that home genetic ancestry test

8. How to solve logistical challenges during a South China Sea conflict

9. Why Americans Are Turning Inwards

10. Covid-19 Caused Chaos for Investors in 2020. These Hedge Funds Earned Billions.

11. Trump thanks military, healthcare workers in Christmas message: "Our gatherings might look different'

12. Another successful Christmas Eve for NORAD crews tracking and escorting Santa Claus

13. Culture Eats Strategy: Personal Incentives Set the Menu

14. Teaching Technology, Innovation, and Modern War at Stanford, Part 9: A Conversation with James Mattis

15. Clash of globalization and nationalism

16. Apologise, Afghanistan tells China after busting its espionage cell in Kabul

 

1. Has Navalny's Prank Shattered the FSB Myth Once and For All?

The Moscow Times · by Sergey Radchenko · December 23, 2020

You have to admit that it was a damn good "prank."

 

2. Split Up NSA and CYBERCOM

defenseone.com · by Javed Ali and Adam Maruyama · December 24, 2020

Some radical proposals:

“We would also advocate for moving the NSA from its organizational home in the Defense Department. It should be led by a Presidentially-appointed, Senate-confirmed civilian who reports to the DNI. Such a move would improve NSA's existing authorities and capabilities, place it under the intelligence umbrella for which it's best suited, and improve its ability to serve national-level and military-specific intelligence requirements.”

 

3. No, China Did Not 'Expel' a US Warship from its Territory, Navy Says

military.com · by Gina Harkins · December 23, 2020

4. A pandemic atlas: How COVID-19 took over the world in 2020

It has been a year unlike any probably in all our lifetimes.

At least when we get to 2021 we can say Hindsight is truly 2020.

A pandemic atlas: How COVID-19 took over the world in 2020

https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-brazil-israel-india-coronavirus-pandemic-c1ba685119fd12108dd6d89f2fb89702

 

5. 5 Places You'll Most Likely Catch COVID, According to Dr. Gupta

eatthis.com · December 24, 2020

A public service announcement.  Follow the science.

 

6. COVID Symptoms Normally Appear in This Order, Study Finds

eatthis.com · December 25, 2020

Another public service announcement.

 

7. Hey, soldiers and spies - think twice about that home genetic ancestry test

rollcall.com · by Gopal Ratnam · December 24, 2020

When you think about it this could be one of the most creative espionage operations in history.  Just imagine the data that people are willingly providing.  We work so hard to protect our liberty from our own government's over reach yet we willingly provide critical private and personal information to corporations that have links to hostile governments.  But at least we will be able to fill out our family tree.

I can see a future question on the security clearance form SF 86  assess your security risk.  

"Have you ever submitted your DNA to a genealogical tracking company?  Is so, when, and to what company(s)?"

While it might not necessarily be disqualifying it may limit the type of work you may do and may require some mitigation measures.

 

8. How to solve logistical challenges during a South China Sea conflict

Defense News · by Scott Trail · December 24, 2020

The tyranny of distance and the missile threat are two key conditions that must be overcome or at least dealt with as effectively as possible.

 

9. Why Americans Are Turning Inwards

The National Interest · by Nikolas K. Gvosdev · December 24, 2020

This is probably the key point: "but also be linked to concrete benefits that Americans will receive."  The ability to describe those benefits and make them meaningful to the broad electorate will be key to the future.

Sober conclusion:  "A new administration must recognize, as the Munich Security Conference has, that the American public is "now both less able to be a guarantor of the international order and less willing to make over proportionate contributions" to sustain it. Rather than seeing this as a problem to be ignored, the Biden team should build on the campaign focus of strengthening the overt linkages of American foreign and security policy to the doorstep concerns of the voters. If Americans embrace U.S. global engagement as vital to their personal health, their paychecks, and even the security of their smartphones, the foundations for a new and enduring political consensus for U.S. foreign policy can be laid."

 

10. Covid-19 Caused Chaos for Investors in 2020. These Hedge Funds Earned Billions.

WSJ · by Juliet Chung· December 25, 2020

 

11. Trump thanks military, healthcare workers in Christmas message: "Our gatherings might look different'

Newsweek · by Janice Williams · December 25, 2020

Video at the link.  

 

12. Another successful Christmas Eve for NORAD crews tracking and escorting Santa Claus

baytoday.ca 

Whew.  I was worried about this. :-)

 

13. Culture Eats Strategy: Personal Incentives Set the Menu

wavellroom.com · by Scottie Mac · December 15, 2020

You can listen to the 10 minute podcast at the link: 

Interesting conclusion: "Critically, the current system forces junior and mid-level commanders to advocate, rather than act, and focus on delivering today over adapting for tomorrow. This limits innovation, adaptation and agility. This research indicates that military personnel are motivated by making a difference and supporting the staff they lead. Empowering them to act rather than advocate is an incentive in itself. Part 3 of our series explores how the MOD might position itself to empower individuals and harness a self-adaptive network. It would require a bold strategy and change in the culture of what it means to be in command. Individual incentives hold the key. Peter Drucker famously said that "culture eats strategy for breakfast"; economists show us that when faced with complexity, individual incentives set the menu."

 

14. Teaching Technology, Innovation, and Modern War at Stanford, Part 9: A Conversation with James Mattis

mwi.usma.edu · by Steve Blank · December 24, 2020

Video at the link.

I recommend reading his final story with this conclusion: "Think about that my fine young friends. On your worst day. I want you to remember that story. Think about that. That he would give anything right now to be sitting where I'm sitting and his daughter sitting where you're sitting, right now. As imperfect as we are, as angry as we are at each other in this country right now-and it seems angrier than I was even at terrorists when I'm shooting them. Think of how great this country is on its worst day, and then roll your sleeves up and make it better. It's that simple-make it stronger. Keep faith with each other, help each other. And remember three words: put others first. And you won't be going to some shrink when you're forty-five years old wondering what you did with your life. Have a good night, young folks. And thanks for having me here."

 

15. Clash of globalization and nationalism

dailyasianage.com · by Brigadier General (Retd) AF Jaglul Ahmed · December 25, 2020

A view from Bangladesh.  The general covers a lot of ground in this short essay.

Conclusion:

“Under this challenging environment, champion of globalization are confounded as to how to grab the benefit of global economy, enjoy the cultural imperialism, while keep extremism at bay without looking at the source of it and seal off. Ultra-nationalists, at the same time, believe that uniqueness of culture must be maintained for racial supremacy and allow narrower space to other cultural minorities to live as subjugated class only.

Imperial vision of globalization doesn't like boundaries to establish economic and cultural supremacy, while the champions of religion denies national boundaries to spread in unstoppable pace against the secular vision of globalization. The big question is - how the process of globalization could be reversed and concept of nation state changed to new social, economic and political identity for peaceful and harmonious life for all race under any colour and creed.”

 

16. Apologise, Afghanistan tells China after busting its espionage cell in Kabul

hindustantimes.com · by Shishir Gupta · December 25, 2020

 

-----------------

 

"Every strike brings me closer to the next home run." 

- Babe Ruth

 

"I think the two things most opposed to good counsel are haste and passion; haste usually goes hand in hand with folly, passion with coarseness and narrowness of mind."

- Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

 

"My idea was that the role of the special forces were to train Vietnamese to behave as guerrillas, harassing the supply lines down through the mountains of the, ah, the Viet Cong. And the special American special forces were to train their special forces to do that."

- Roger Hilsman

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Best Christmas present ever (Korea)

2. Canada endorses free speech amid South Korea leaflet ban

3.  S. Korea's virus cases hit all-time high despite tougher distancing rules

4.  First shipment of COVID-19 vaccine arrives for U.S. troops in S. Korea

5.  Kim Jong-un 2nd-most searched figure on Google in 2020

6.  Leaflet wars

7. Defense minister to expedite 2nd stage FOC for OPCON transfer

8. U.S. spy plane flies near North Korea ahead of Party Congress

9. North Korea construction stalled in pandemic year, analysts say

10. South Korea conducted Dokdo defense drill earlier this month

11. Central Anti-epidemic Committee inspects quarantine efforts ahead of the Eighth Party Congress

12. U.S. stresses importance of free flow of information to N. Korea

13. This Book Turns Everything You Thought You Knew About North Korea Upside Down

 

1. Best Christmas present ever (Korea)

The Korea Times· by Ned Forney · December 24, 2020

This is what Americans do.

 

2.  Canada endorses free speech amid South Korea leaflet ban

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · December 24, 2020

A lot of international opposition to the "Kim Yo-jong law."  Does South Korean want to remain part of the like minded democracies of the world?

 

3. S. Korea's virus cases hit all-time high despite tougher distancing rules

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · December 25, 2020

COVID is keeping most of the world from having a Merry Christmas.

 

4. First shipment of COVID-19 vaccine arrives for U.S. troops in S. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 김광태 · December 25, 2020

 

5. Kim Jong-un 2nd-most searched figure on Google in 2020

The Korea Times · December 25, 2020

This should make Kim feel good. After all he craves attention and wants to be in the spotlight.

 

6. Leaflet wars

The Korea Times· by Donald Kirk · December 24, 2020

You can always count on Don Kirk for scathing criticism and pithy writing.

7. Defense minister to expedite 2nd stage FOC for OPCON transfer

donga.com· December 25, 2020

Transition.

We have to get this done but get it done right.  I am sure the Defense Minister has to support President Moon's position but these kinds of public statements are not helpful for the alliance.  The ROK and US military leadership must be fully committed to getting this done, but as I said, getting it done right.

 

8. U.S. spy plane flies near North Korea ahead of Party Congress

We must sustain ISR operations around Korea.

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · December 24, 2020

 

9. North Korea construction stalled in pandemic year, analysts say

upi.com By Elizabeth Shim· December 24, 2020

A BFO (blinding flash of the obvious). But we should also remember that more important than construction and mitigating the effects of COVID is the regime's priority for the people is ideological training versus construction work.

 

10. South Korea conducted Dokdo defense drill earlier this month

The Korea Times · December 25, 2020

There should be no question DokDo belongs to Korea.  However, these kinds of exercises do not help the Korea-Japan relationship.

 

11. Central Anti-epidemic Committee inspects quarantine efforts ahead of the Eighth Party Congress

dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · December 25, 2020

Excerpts:

“The heads of inminban, North Korea's lowest administrative unit, are keeping close tabs on hygiene among the households they watch over. In practice, this means that inminban heads are checking that people are abiding by quarantine rules and sanitizing their houses and hands four times a day.

Locals have reportedly been ordered to make their antiseptic solution from the extract provided by their inminban. One source said that the head of a local inminban told residents under her charge to boil water with half a spoon of salt for two hours if they are running low on antiseptic solution.”

 

12. U.S. stresses importance of free flow of information to N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 22, 2020

We need an alliance information and influence activities campaign.

 

13. This Book Turns Everything You Thought You Knew About North Korea Upside Down

covertactionmagazine.com · December 17, 2020

This is quite the revisionist or even alternative history.  I will probably order and read this book but based on this review it will go into the sub-genre of Korean security books that could be called "blame America for all that is wrong in Korea."

 

----------------

 

"Every strike brings me closer to the next home run." 

- Babe Ruth

 

"I think the two things most opposed to good counsel are haste and passion; haste usually goes hand in hand with folly, passion with coarseness and narrowness of mind."

- Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

 

"My idea was that the role of the special forces were to train Vietnamese to behave as guerrillas, harassing the supply lines down through the mountains of the, ah, the Viet Cong. And the special American special forces were to train their special forces to do that."

- Roger Hilsman

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Unification ministry drafting guidelines on leafleting ban to clarify 'scope of application': official

2. N. Korea's newspaper calls for powerful defense capabilities

3.  Gov't Excuse for Crackdown on Free Speech Is Absurd (South Korea)

4.  Public disapproval rating of Moon soars to record high 59.1 pct: Realmeter

5. How South Korea’s early coronavirus success left it struggling to contain latest wave

6. At War Online: South Korea and China

7. S. Korea signs deals to purchase vaccines from Janssen, Pfizer

8. Tide turns on Kim Jong-un's plan for North Korean 'Ibiza' beach resort

9.  North Korea intensifies inspections of personnel in China

10. USFK to Start Coronavirus Vaccinations Next Week

11. How Operation Christmas, leaflets in North Korea and CIA pop put a creative twist on propaganda

12. Red Cross delivered $700K of COVID-19 aid to North Korea, report says

13. Biden’s Approach to North Korea and the NPT Option

14. North Korea Uses Dead Bodies of Prisoners as 'Human Fertilizer' on Flower Hill

15. Report: N. Korea hackers linked to site targeting COVID-19 vaccine developer

16. Golden Globes Under Fire for Shutting ‘Minari’ Out of Best Picture: ‘Racist,’ ‘Complete Bullsh*t’

17. North Korean media paint a dark picture of South's virus fight

18. N. Korean hacker opens phishing website for Severance Hospital

 

1. Unification ministry drafting guidelines on leafleting ban to clarify 'scope of application': official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 24, 2020

I respectfully disagree with the Ministry of Unification view and attempt to clarify the law.  I strongly recommend the Moon Administration reconsider what both our countries believe are inalienable and universal human rights.  The government must be strictly restrained from limiting freedom of expression.

Let me reprise some of my previous comments.  

The rationale for this Kim Yo-jong law is flawed. You must not appease north Korea.  This will not protect Korean citizens nor will it cause north Korea to reciprocate in a positive way.  And even more than appeasement, this law is directly contributing to the survival of the Kim family regime and assisting the regime in denying the human rights of the Korean people in the north (access to information) because the regime must deny the human rights of the Korean people in order to remain in power.  The regime fears the Korean people more than it fears the US.  We should never forget that.

In addition this law is based on erroneous assumptions about the nature and objectives of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime.  I urge the Moon and incoming Biden administration to reassess alliance assumptions about the regime and revise combined alliance policies and strategies based on better assumptions. The most flawed assumption is that Kim Jong-un shares President Moon's vision of peace and reconciliation.  This flawed assumption is what is leading to failed policy and strategy.

The Moon administration should realize it is going against the shared values of the community of democracies,  It risks making South Korea an outlier and if it continues to enact laws that restrict basic human freedoms then it risks becoming pariah.  And after the rights issue which should be paramount, the practical reason for overturning this "gag law" as Lord Alton terms it (or Kim Jo-jong law as others call it) is that it will not accomplish anything positive with regard to north Korea.  Instead the regime will double down on its blackmail diplomacy because So9uth Korean appeasement shows the regime its political warfare strategy is achieving positive effects.

The ROK government has made an egregious mistake and we cannot sit idly by and not call it out.  We are allies with shared values. This law goes against those shared values.  

The ROKG cannot put a positive spin on this with its argument that this is about defending Korean citizens in the South from north Korean hostile action.  

Unfortunately the real rationale is simply the misguided belief that appeasing the regime will change its behavior.

I am reminded of Benjamin Franklin's quote: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

 

But the very best statement comes from US Congressman MCCaul:  “Freedom of expression is a core democratic value,” McCaul said. “A bright future for the Korean Peninsula rests on North Korea becoming more like South Korea — not the other way around.”

The real issue that should be discussed is how should the ROK/US alliance conduct effective information and influence activities to target the three target audiences in the north: the regime elite, the 2d tier leadership, and the population.  What the assemblymen is really describing is the ROK and the ROK/US alliance have too long neglected the information instrument of national power.  Because of this the escapees (defectors) have been left to their own devices and as outlined in this excerpt have conducted some activities that are counter productive to effective messaging. 

 

Excerpts:

“South Korea and the US have repeatedly said that they have no intention of invading North Korea and causing a regime change so that the North would give up the willingness to develop nuclear weapons. However, allowing anti-North Korea propaganda broadcasts and sending leaflets with photoshopped naked pictures of Kim Jong Un’s wife, Ri Sol Ju, from the near-border area are considered psychological warfare, which would be viewed as an act of war.

The Korean Peninsula is legally in a state of war. The end of the war has not been declared. It is quite difficult to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program while neglecting such psychological warfare. The core content of the several inter-Korean agreements is the prohibition of mutual slander and mutual recognition of each other’s governmental system. North Korea does not distribute propaganda leaflets to South Korea. On the other hand, it is difficult to force North Korea to abide by inter-Korean agreements while South Korea does not.

We really need to develop a comprehensive and effective Alliance information and influence activities campaign.

Our recommendations:

The United States and South Korea should implement a comprehensive and aggressive IIA campaign in North Korea. The focus should be three-fold: create internal threats against the regime from among the elite, provide the second-tier leadership with alternative paths to survival, and prepare the Korean people for eventual unification under a United Republic of Korea. To do so, we recommend the following steps:

Develop organizational infrastructure to facilitate IIA: The United States and South Korea lack a single organization to direct IIA against North Korea. Washington and Seoul should establish institutions that would work together to plan and shape combined IIA. Fortunately, as discussed earlier, the United States already has numerous tools at its disposal, such as the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor; Voice of America; and Radio Free Asia. The United States should centralize these activities under an oversight organization. This organization would coordinate all agencies and departments and work with non-government organizations.

Under the Moon administration, there will likely be concerns that IIA could upset diplomatic conditions. Admittedly, an IIA campaign targeting Pyongyang could risk stirring additional short-term tensions with Pyongyang. But U.S. diplomats should remind their ROK counterparts that those tensions may ultimately forge a path to the peaceful denuclearization of North Korea. U.S. diplomats also need to remind their South Korean allies that Seoul’s persistent use of concessions has not elicited progress with Pyongyang.

Encourage Moon’s government to increase intra-Korean people-to-people exchanges: Washington should encourage intra-Korean engagement by sponsoring people-to-people educational and cultural exchanges. Such exchanges could expose North Korea’s intelligentsia and emerging elites to democratic concepts as well as personal relationships with South Koreans.241

Implement aggressive IIA targeting the North Korea regime: After building a baseline consensus, the United States and South Korea should implement increasingly aggressive IIA targeting the North Korean regime. These activities should inform North Koreans of their universal human rights and civil liberties that the regime is failing to respect. This will undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime and give hope to the people living in the North. Alternate sources of information can put regime propaganda in perspective.

This campaign could also help lay the initial groundwork for emergent leaders who could replace Kim and who might seek to unify with the South as equal partners under the values of individual liberty and freedom, liberal democracy, and a free market economy. At a minimum, this campaign could help persuade Kim that the status quo poses a greater threat than good faith negotiations with the United States and South Korea. The ultimate goal is to create internal divisions and threats that will influence Kim to denuclearize.

Increase exposure of North Koreans to the outside world: IIA must exploit North Koreans’ growing access to DVDs, USB drives, and smart phones from outside the country.242 These media devices can carry content popular among North Koreans, such as South Korean dramas, which can implicitly help Koreans in the North better understand the difference between the regime they have and the government they deserve.243

Establish a Korea Defector Information Institute (KDII): There is no single organization in the United States or South Korea that harnesses the information of defectors to support IIA. If both nations worked together to establish a KDII, it could serve as a repository for defector information to inform policymakers, strategists, and those responsible for developing IIA themes and messages. This institute should utilize defector knowledge and advice in devising appropriate messages and communications techniques. It could also encourage North Koreans to defect, particularly members of Office 39 (also known as Department 39), who are knowledgeable of the Kim family regime’s finances.

Provide military support to ROK-U.S. government programs for IIA: S. Psychological Operations (PSYOP) forces should be deployed on a permanent basis to support ROK PSYOP forces as part of a national-level alliance IIA campaign. ROK and U.S. PSYOP forces should advise and assist defector organizations to synchronize themes, messages, and dissemination methods to ensure unity of effort.

 

2. N. Korea's newspaper calls for powerful defense capabilities

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 24, 2020

We can laugh off what is often seemingly over the top rhetoric all we want, but the  Propaganda and Agitation department often tells us what is the real regime policy and intent.  This is one of those cases.  Singun is military first politics not just policy.   It permeates every aspect of the party and ruling functions.

I recommend reading the work of Robert Collins: 

What South Korea And The US Need To Understand About North Korea

Kim Jong-un’s Hats: the Concept of Authority in North Korea

North Korea’s ORGANIZATION AND GUIDANCE DEPARTMENT" The Control Tower of Human Rights Denial

Pyongyang Republic: North Korea’s Capital of Human Rights Denial

 

3. Gov't Excuse for Crackdown on Free Speech Is Absurd (South Korea)

english.chosun.com

From the Chosun Ilbo editorial board.  I fear the Moon administration is tone deaf to such criticism.

 

4. Public disapproval rating of Moon soars to record high 59.1 pct: Realmeter

en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · December 24, 2020

And I will bet these statistics do not yet factor in the new "Kim Yo-jong law."

 

5. How South Korea’s early coronavirus success left it struggling to contain latest wave

scmp.com

Excerpts:

“Stung by criticism his government’s plan to begin providing vaccines in February or March – months after some other countries – was too relaxed, Moon on Tuesday promised a public vaccination programme would “not begin too late” and his office emphasised the country would eventually buy enough doses to cover more than 85 per cent of the population. Lim said the government should have prepared for worst case scenarios but failed to scale up efforts it had made in earlier waves, such as quickly securing enough beds in private hospitals.

“We came to believe that everything was going to be OK if we wear masks well and stick to what we had been doing,” he said. “But that belief held authorities back from looking at why they were slow to act, and whether there were lessons to learn, from both successes and failures.”

 

6. At War Online: South Korea and China

thediplomat.com · by Troy Stangarone · December 24, 2020

Conclusion: "Despite being self-defeating, China’s embrace of a more assertive public diplomacy stance suggests that the use of social media controversies to drive narratives might also be reflective of the future of relations between South Korea and China."

 

7. S. Korea signs deals to purchase vaccines from Janssen, Pfizer

en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · December 24, 2020

Will this stem the criticism of the Moon administration?

 

8. Tide turns on Kim Jong-un's plan for North Korean 'Ibiza' beach resort

nzherald.co.nz

Vanity project.

 

9. North Korea intensifies inspections of personnel in China

dailynk.com· by Jang Seul Gi · December 24, 2020

China is complicit in north Korea human rights abuses.

Excerpts:

“Daily NK previously reported that in mid-November, the authorities ordered the North Korean embassy in China to carry out inspections of the heads of trading companies, labor managers, managers of North Korean restaurants, and other personnel in the country.

Cadres from the embassy and local consulates reportedly inspected individuals’ mobile phones and other personal items during one-on-one interviews.

They are also looking to see if homes have books from other countries or Bibles, and are asking if occupants have come into contact with such things.”

 

10. USFK to Start Coronavirus Vaccinations Next Week

english.chosun.com· December 24, 2020

Excerpt: "That includes KATUSA soldiers and civilian Korean workers in the military," a military source here said."

 

11. How Operation Christmas, leaflets in North Korea and CIA pop put a creative twist on propaganda

PSYOP.

ABC.net.au · December 23, 2020

Who would have thought of linkage of Korea, Colombia, Germany and the USSR?

I bet Soo Kim could take both Kim Yo-jong and north Korean YouTuber Un A in two out of three falls.  See photos below.

Seriously, Soo Kim offers some important views on PSYOP.

 

12. Red Cross delivered $700K of COVID-19 aid to North Korea, report says

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · December 23, 2020

A miniscule number but if there are no COVID cases in north Korea perhaps they do not need much help.

 

13. Biden’s Approach to North Korea and the NPT Option

fpif.org · by John Feffer · December 23, 2020

Note the subtitle.

With a twist -  part of the "NPT proposal" been tried - the 1994 Agreed Framework.  But do we really think we are going to offer to reduce our nuclear weapons and would any reduction or promise of such really have a positive impact on north Korea negotiations?

I guess we will know when we start seeing nuclear weapons as solar panels.

Excerpt:

“If the Biden administration maintains this approach once it takes power, the United States will concede that North Korea is a de facto nuclear power that is willing to consider arms control but not, at least in the near term, complete verifiable and irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of its nuclear weapons program. In the interim, the administration will pursue arms control—the limiting of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program rather than its elimination—in exchange for sanctions relief.

Let’s call this the NPT option. In the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, non-nuclear countries agreed to give up their potential nuclear weapons programs in exchange for two things. First, they would receive assistance to develop civilian nuclear programs (“atoms for peace”). Second, the nuclear powers pledged to begin the process of global nuclear disarmament. The “atoms for peace” programs proliferated, but the nuclear powers embraced only modest arms control measures, not serious steps toward disarmament.

If the United States approaches North Korea with a similar bargain, engagement can proceed with North Korea agreeing to eventual disarmament while adopting interim arms control measures in exchange for a reduction in economic sanctions and a new package of clean energy alternatives.”

 

14. North Korea Uses Dead Bodies of Prisoners as 'Human Fertilizer' on Flower Hill

ibtimes.sg · by Parwinder Sandhu · December 22, 2020

Yes, we have been reading about this quite a bit of late.  But we cannot overemphasize how absolutely evil is the Kim family regime.  We must never forget what the regime is doing to the Korean people living in the north.

 

15. Report: N. Korea hackers linked to site targeting COVID-19 vaccine developer

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · December 23, 2020

But there are no COVID cases in north Korea. (or so the regime says)

 

16. Golden Globes Under Fire for Shutting ‘Minari’ Out of Best Picture: ‘Racist,’ ‘Complete Bullsh*t’

Indiewire · by Zack Sharf · December 23, 2020

Is this in retaliation for Parasite winning the best picture Oscar?

Excerpt: “Just for the record, ‘Minari’ is an American movie written and directed by an American filmmaker set in America with an American lead actor and produced by an American production company,” Simu Liu wrote. “What could be more American than that?”

 

17.  North Korean media paint a dark picture of South's virus fight

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com ·  by Shim Kyu-Seok

Not unexpected.  north Korean propaganda toward the South has not subsided.

18.  N. Korean hacker opens phishing website for Severance Hospital

donga.com· December 24, 2020

Kim Jong-un's all purpose sword is sharp and being wielded on a daily basis.

 

------------------------

 

"You must not only aim right, but draw the bow with all your might." 

- Henry David Thoreau

 

“In a democracy, someone who fails to get elected to office can always console himself with the thought that there was something not quite fair about it.”

- Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

 

“The absence of romance in my history will, I fear, detract somewhat from its interest, but if it is judged worthy by those inquirers who desire an exact knowledge of the past as an aid to the understanding of the future, which in the course of human things must resemble if it does not reflect it, I shall be content.

In fine I have written my work not as an essay with which to win the applause of the moment but as a possession for all time.”

 - Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. New cracks emerge among Democrats over Biden’s Pentagon pick

2. The World China Wants: How Power Will—and Won’t—Reshape Chinese Ambitions

3. Trump vetoes defense bill, but Congress appears poised to override him

4. Miller says last US troops in Afghanistan will be special operations forces

5. Army Rangers have been deployed to combat for 7,000 days straight

6. How to Deter China: Enter the Democratic Armada - 19FortyFive

7. General Washington's Christmas Gifts

8. How the U.S. Misread China’s Xi: Hoping for a Globalist, It Got an Autocrat

9. The Lesson of 2020? Security Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Does

10. Biden Declares Political Center Alive and Well

11. Ideologies, Cults of Personality, and the Center of Gravity

12. The (Coming) Wave of Vaccine Disinformation

13. The Toll Of Conspiracy Theories: A Voting Security Expert Lives In Hiding

14. Snowden and Assange Deserve Pardons. So Do the Whistleblowers Trump Imprisoned.

15. CFIUS Won’t Be ‘Weaponized’ Under the Biden Administration

 

1. New cracks emerge among Democrats over Biden’s Pentagon pick

Politico

As we knew, the choice of General Austin requires the Biden Administration. to expend a lot of political capital.  Will it be worth it?

 

2. The World China Wants: How Power Will—and Won’t—Reshape Chinese Ambitions

Foreign Affairs· by  Rana Mitter ·  January/February 2021

Excerpt: "Chinese power today is a protean, dynamic force formed by the nexus of authoritarianism, consumerism, global ambitions, and technology. Call it the ACGT model: with the same initials as the nucleotides in DNA, these strands of Chinese power combine and recombine to form China’s modern political identity and approach to the rest of the world. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to firm up its grip on Chinese society, encourage consumerism at home and abroad, expand its global influence, and develop and export China’s own advanced technology. China’s current standing and future prospects cannot be understood without seeing all four of those goals together."

Conclusion:

“An ACGT-based bid to reshape the international order demands a more concerted Chinese diplomatic effort overall. Chinese officials now often invoke saccharine platitudes before veering at breakneck speed toward more coercive and confrontational broadsides. Instead, China needs to better understand that global leadership requires concessions, generosity, and a willingness to entertain criticism: a hard realization to achieve in a country where the domestic political culture encourages the suppression, rather than the celebration, of dissent. The major obstacle to China’s rise on the international stage is not U.S. hostility or internal foes. Rather, it is the authoritarian strand of the CCP’s core identity. That authoritarianism and at times confrontational expansionism has the effect of tarnishing the other components of China’s model—the emphasis on consumerism and improvements in material lifestyles, the flawed but sincere commitment to global development and poverty reduction, and China’s truly astonishing capacity for technological innovation. 

The key elements of China’s ideological mixture—Marxism-Leninism, traditional thought, historical analogy, and economic success—have largely eclipsed the always limited power of Western liberalism to influence how the CCP sees the world. But China’s global future depends on how it can successfully recombine the other aspects of its ACGT model. At the moment, Chinese authoritarianism threatens to limit Beijing’s ability to create a plausible new form of global order.”

3. Trump vetoes defense bill, but Congress appears poised to override him

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III and Joe Gould · December 23, 2020

I wonder what are the odds the Vegas bookmakers are giving for a possible veto override?

 

4. Miller says last US troops in Afghanistan will be special operations forces

Stars and Stripes · by Caitlin M. Kenney · December 22, 2020

Everyone likes to claim first in, last out.

 

5. Army Rangers have been deployed to combat for 7,000 days straight

sandboxx.us · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · December 23, 2020

Only one or two other military organizations (and an "other government agency") can claim similar numbers. 

 

6. How to Deter China: Enter the Democratic Armada - 19FortyFive

19fortyfive.com · by ByJames Holmes · December 23, 2020

Excerpts:

“On the strategic side, the map conveys much about the Pacific balance of power. U.S. and allied strategy is converging on an approach that seeks to confine the People’s Liberation Army, the navy in particular, to the China seas. Allied forces will make the first island chain a barrier to Chinese maritime movement by plugging up the straits with mines, submarines, warplanes, surface craft, and marines operating on the islands. If successful they will make the Western Pacific into a relatively secure maneuver space for allied naval and air forces.

Such a strategy demands that allied navies practice scouring the Western Pacific of hostile subs. Otherwise Chinese or Russian subs could put a kink in operations off Taiwan, the Senkakus, or wherever the scene of combat happened to be. So the ability to work with allies to accomplish common tasks holds military as well as diplomatic value. It shows they can do what policy and strategy require them to do. The more impressive the show of political solidarity and naval prowess, the more likely hostile great powers are to be deterred. After all, no one picks an unwinnable fight.”

 

7.  General Washington's Christmas Gifts

lawliberty.org · by Richard Samuelson · December 24, 2016

This was published four years ago but is worth reading again.

Excerpts:

“Washington was ambitious, and he craved glory, but it was glory of a higher sort. He wished to be remembered not merely as powerful, but also as a servant of a cause greater than himself.

Upon hearing that General Washington would resign his commission, George III said “if he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world.” General Washington’s Christmas gift to the American republic.”

 

8. How the U.S. Misread China’s Xi: Hoping for a Globalist, It Got an Autocrat

WSJ · by Jeremy Page · December 23, 2020

Relatively long read for the WSJ.

Funny how our assumptions affect strategic outcomes.

Key point:

“The U.S. officials’ conclusion: Although Mr. Xi was far more confident and forthright than Hu Jintao, the stiff and scripted leader he would succeed, he likely shared his commitment to stable ties with Washington and closer integration with the U.S-led global order. Some even hoped Mr. Xi would kick-start stalled economic reforms.

It was one of the biggest strategic miscalculations of the post-Cold War era.

In the eight subsequent years, Mr. Xi has pursued an expansive, hypernationalistic vision of China’s future, displaying a desire for control and a talent for political maneuvering. Drawing comparisons to Mao Zedong, he has crushed critics and potential rivals, revitalized the Communist Party and even scrapped presidential term limits so he can, if he chooses, rule for life.”

 

9. The Lesson of 2020? Security Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Does

thediplomat.com · by Jacob Parakilas · December 23, 2020

Excerpts:

“So how, in a word, can we do better in 2021?

One approach is to broaden the definition of “security threat” to include more than just conventional attack or terrorism. The appeal of this solution is that it might in the short term allow the reprogramming of some of the enormous sums spent on conventional security to address the issues that are actually manifestly damaging the lives and livelihoods of people now, rather than hedging against future threat.

But there is reason to be cautious about this approach. First, complex challenges are not necessarily responsive to the kinds of solutions that securitization has to offer: militaries should be aware of climate change and take actions within their remits to limit their emissions and be prepared for disaster-response operations, for example, but there is little role for an air force or a naval formation in changing incentives for carbon-intensive commercial energy generation or long-haul trucking. Nor is it helpful for managing conventional security threats - which will not go away as unconventional challenges mutate and multiply - to dilute the concept of “threat” to include the full panoply of structural and environmental challenges along with human actors. Analytical precision is important; so is keeping institutions focused on core and achievable goals.”

 

10. Biden Declares Political Center Alive and Well

WSJ · by Gerald F. Seib· December 24, 2020

All hail the center.  We must marginalize the extremists on both sides.

 

11. Ideologies, Cults of Personality, and the Center of Gravity

othjournal.com · by Daniel Riggs · December 21, 2020

Excerpts:

“The COG can illuminate and improve analysis and targeting, but planners must understand strengths and limitations. As Eikmeier notes, “what planners need are tools that help them to make sense of a complex OE and develop an acceptable level of understanding [and use COG] to improve understanding, focus planning, improve efficiency, and is not a disaster”. The current definition tolerates anything to occupy planning efforts instead of focusing on changing conditions and behaviors by targeting entities that animate adversarial ideologies. It should be assumed that adversaries of the U.S. develop strategies to alter the information and operational environment by changing physical conditions and institutions, not operating as a beleaguered press secretary or a debater.

COG, for any of its criticisms, can help us in ambiguous environments as long as we don’t couple the problem by targeting ambiguity. Military planners are intellectually astute, but to compete in the information environment, they will need to be like Fast Eddie Felson playing three-cushion billiard, not pool, against Fendley: remember the principles of what they do right and apply them to dominate the game, after a brief period of confusion.”

 

12. The (Coming) Wave of Vaccine Disinformation

The (Coming) Wave of Vaccine Disinformation · by Jim Ludes ·  December 23, 2020

Buckle up.

Conclusion: "America’s adversaries will seek to divide us on every issue they can find to exploit.  The coronavirus pandemic is no different.  

But we can defeat lies and disinformation with an ironclad commitment to the truth, to science, and to a renewed conviction to work together, 

as Americans, to serve our common good."

 

13. The Toll Of Conspiracy Theories: A Voting Security Expert Lives In Hiding

NPR · by Bente Birkeland · December 23, 2020

It will be interesting to see if anyone can be held criminally or civilly liable for the effects of some of these conspiracy theories.

As an aside, Zignal Labs does some cutting edge analysis.

Excerpt:

“The media intelligence platform Zignal Labs, in an analysis performed at NPR's request, found that misinformation narratives related to vote-by-mail systems alone were mentioned across the media spectrum more than 40 million times since Election Day.

That flood reached Dominion the week after the election, according to Zignal, and misinformation related to the company's machines has been mentioned more than 10 million times since then.”

 

14. Snowden and Assange Deserve Pardons. So Do the Whistleblowers Trump Imprisoned.

The Intercept · by James Risen · December 23, 2020

The Blackwater war criminals were bad enough but Snowden and Assange would be very bad for different reasons.

I am all for press freedom but I think neither Snowden or Assange are journalists and neither should be afforded the respect or protections that we should provide to all real journalists. 

 

15. CFIUS Won’t Be ‘Weaponized’ Under the Biden Administration

Bloomberg  December 24, 2020

 

------------------

 

"You must not only aim right, but draw the bow with all your might." 

- Henry David Thoreau

 

“In a democracy, someone who fails to get elected to office can always console himself with the thought that there was something not quite fair about it.”

- Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

 

“The absence of romance in my history will, I fear, detract somewhat from its interest, but if it is judged worthy by those inquirers who desire an exact knowledge of the past as an aid to the understanding of the future, which in the course of human things must resemble if it does not reflect it, I shall be content.

In fine I have written my work not as an essay with which to win the applause of the moment but as a possession for all time.”

 - Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

The Indigenous Approach is the official podcast of 1st Special Forces Command.

 

This series discusses the question of who Special Forces are, an especially relevant question during the current organizational flux in DoD and SOCOM.

 

Episode 5: SF Identity Part 1 –

Seven well-respected Sergeants Major from across the SF Regiment discuss whether there is an “Identity Crisis”

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/special-forces-identity-part-1/id1534621849?i=1000500244771

Google Podcasts: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS8xMzg5MTc1LnJzcw/episode/QnV6enNwcm91dC02NTQ2ODc3?sa=X&ved=0CAQQkfYCahcKEwj4hd3nyuXtAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR7Bsh_UUnw

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0HC4cv2dOPpZOuxBqEKLMU?si=62kGMDuRQ9aBNpoDFP7H7w 

 

Episode 6: SF Identity Part 2 –

The same Sergeants Major discuss how the uncertainty surrounding the SF Identity is affecting the force

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/special-forces-identity-part-2/id1534621849?i=1000501940033

Google Podcasts: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS8xMzg5MTc1LnJzcw/episode/QnV6enNwcm91dC02NzczMjYz?sa=X&ved=0CAQQkfYCahcKEwj4hd3nyuXtAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1nb-E0JswE

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2GLKysF8zuo6rgXiKHczhu?si=9jcw5qTWSyuZNFrOjMDJYg

 

Episode 7: SF Identity Part 3 –

The Sergeants Major discuss some steps we can take to address the uncertainty of identity

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-indigenous-approach/id1534621849#episodeGuid=Buzzsprout-6982006

Google Podcasts: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS8xMzg5MTc1LnJzcw/episode/QnV6enNwcm91dC02OTgyMDA2?sa=X&ved=0CAQQkfYCahcKEwj4hd3nyuXtAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFInBQksye8

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6Rqz82ptzPhA9QOmLqUhnX?si=OEJhcPKXRH-fNgAB4_IF1Q

 

 

 

The other episodes of the podcast are available at the below links:

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-indigenous-approach/id1534621849

Google Podcasts: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS8xMzg5MTc1LnJzcw==

YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCn2vn240LXa2pMvOuDFBpUw

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3n3I7g9LSmd143GYCy7pPA?si=xRAYlJY2Q_-ZJXpHZ3vthg