News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Expect Missile Testing and Probing From North Korea, Not a Cry For Attention or Help

2. UN Agencies Appeal to China Not to Repatriate Five North Korean Refugees

3. North Korea declares start of "special security period" in Sino-North Korean border region

4. Joint military drill may emerge as hot-button issue for allies (Korea)

5. S. Korea to decide level of virus curbs this week amid no letup in virus resurgence

6. Ex-U.N. chief Ban calls for rectification of ban on sending anti-N. Korea leaflets

7. Unification ministry to scale up financial support for N. Korea aid groups

8. Over 26 pct of N. Korean defectors sent money back home this year: poll

9. Kim Jong Un faces a new year’s moment of truth

10. Local trade official arrested for defying order to earn foreign currency

11. South Korea completes plans for light-aircraft carrier, vertical landing jets

12. North Korean stamps website appears

13. North Korea Claims to Have No Coronavirus. The CDC Disagrees.

14. N. Korea's rare party congress appears imminent as delegates arrive in Pyongyang

15. North Korea military parade spells out HUGE message seen from space ahead of key event

16. North Korean defector chases acting dream in South, finds role as unification advocate

1. Expect Missile Testing and Probing From North Korea, Not a Cry For Attention or Help

The National Interest · by Markus V. Garlauskas · December 30, 2020

From the former NIO for Korea.  I certainly concur that Kim Jong-un will be probing and testing and trying to figure out how to get concessions (e.g., sanctions relief) from the new administration.  The default course of action that is in the DNA of the regime is blackmail diplomacy.  We must expect Kim to use provocations and increased tensions to try to gain political and economic concessions. If that happens we will not be surprised. If it does not happen we will be pleasantly surprised (though I fear if he does not practice blackmail diplomacy immediate surrounding the transition he will eventually revert to it when he does not get what he wants - and the other lesson we should learn is that if we give concessions Kim will deem that a success and continue to double down on blackmail diplomacy.  Concessions will not change Kim's behavior in a positive way.

Conclusion: "Whether or not Kim Jong-un orders a major weapons test early in the Biden Administration’s tenure, North Korea will nevertheless be probing and testing, and probably seeking the right conditions to escalate to testing an ICBM at acceptable risk. It will not be a simple matter to organize international responses that dissuade Pyongyang from escalating further—particularly with all the other urgent issues the new Administration will be facing—but how the Biden Administration responds to North Korea’s probes will likely be crucial to shaping North Korea’s behavior in the next four years."

2. UN Agencies Appeal to China Not to Repatriate Five North Korean Refugees

rfa.org· by Jeongeun Ji and Albert Hong

Again, and we cannot say this enough, China is complicit in north Korean human rights abuses and crimes against humanity.

3. North Korea declares start of "special security period" in Sino-North Korean border region

dailynk.com· by Lee Sang Yong · December 30, 2020

It seems that the populations and resources control measures are more severe and restrictive than at any time in the history of the regime.  I would like to read some analysis from escapees who have experienced border operations.   I fear blow back is coming for the regime. We need to be on our toes.

4. Joint military drill may emerge as hot-button issue for allies

The Korea Times· by Kang Seung-woo · December 31, 2020

"To send an untrained army to war is to throw them away." - Confucius. 

We have worked diligently to support diplomacy and the nuclear negotiations by adjusting ROK/US CFC training using the commander's  "four dials."  We have ended the "named exercises" and emphasized alliance training as Combined Command Post Training (CCPT).   The ROK signed the Comprehensive Military Agreement which consisted of confidence building measures that the ROK faithfully implemented with virtually no reciprocity save for changes in the JSA and the removal of a number of guard posts. During all this time the nKPA remains forward deployed postured for offensive operations, has continued more than 20 short range ballistic and cruise missile and rocket launches and has sustained a military modernization program at the expense of the welfare of the Korean people in the north. On October 10th the regime showed off what may be a new ICBM and new SLBM along with the wide range of modernized conventional military equipment.  And teh ROK has also allowed encouragement on training areas which has prevented sufficient live fire training by US forces in Korea.  Given the north Korean threat and its continued hostile posture toward South Korea and the ROK/US Alliance along with the necessity to continue the OPCON transition process which requires, in part, combined training to reach FOC and then FMC, we must have a renewed emphasis on combined training at the theater level to ensure the readiness of the ROK/US CFC.  Failure to do so will be throwing the ROK/US CFC away.

5. S. Korea to decide level of virus curbs this week amid no letup in virus resurgence

en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · December 31, 2020

I fear tough times are ahead for Korea.

6. Ex-U.N. chief Ban calls for rectification of ban on sending anti-N. Korea leaflets

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 31, 2020

To borrow an adage from the LBJ era: "If you have lost Ban Ki-moon you have lost the country."

We should all remember these words from Secretary General Ban: "Human rights are not an internal affair but a universal value of humankind. The law has invited criticism from the international community that it is an 'anti-human rights act' that succumbed to North Korea's demands," Ban said in the speech. "I cannot help but feel miserable that our country is facing criticism from home and abroad due to the human rights issue. (South Korea) should rectify it with the right measures," he added, stressing his stint at the U.N. helm from 2007-2016 had focused on promoting human rights around the world."

7. Unification ministry to scale up financial support for N. Korea aid groups

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 31, 2020

Yes, this is a good and important step forward but I fear it is too little and too late and will not offset the criticism of the anti-leaflet/anti-human rights Kim Yo Jong law.

8. Over 26 pct of N. Korean defectors sent money back home this year: poll

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 31, 2020

If they can get money to their relatives in the north we should be able to exploit that.  Imagine if we could funnel money to "key communicators" in the north and to the right business people operating the markets.  We could get enough money into north Korea and to the right people to really capitalize on the corruption by the regime.  This would be an important line of effort for anyone considering a political warfare /unconventional warfare campaign in the north. 

9. Kim Jong Un faces a new year’s moment of truth

asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider · December 30, 2020

And it is bad for Kim it could have catastrophic consequences for those around him.  We had best be closely observing for the indications and warnings for regime instability.

I worry about Kim 's interpretation of how to "show big leadership."

10.  Local trade official arrested for defying order to earn foreign currency

dailynk.com· by Jong So Yong · December 31, 2020

How do you earn foreign currency domestically when the regime is cracking down on all the use of all foreign currency?  Perhaps the regime is demanding officials go out and find the currency among the civilian population.

Excerpt:  "According to the source, he went to the provinces but did nothing, returning empty-handed after staying at a relative’s home. All the while, he complained, “How are we supposed to earn foreign currency domestically?” and “What kind of means do we have?” The authorities were not amused, however, and he was dragged off by the Ministry of State Security."

11. South Korea completes plans for light-aircraft carrier, vertical landing jets

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim

This should be a very important capability. But the ROK also has to invest in the fundamentals for OPCON transition.  Every dollar spent on these advanced capabilities is a dollar not spent on the necessary C4I, counter fire, and missile defense, capabilities necessary for OPCON transition.

12. North Korean stamps website appears

North Korea Tech · by Martyn William · December 31, 2020

For all my friends who may be philatelists (I do not know who you are!)

13. North Korea Claims to Have No Coronavirus. The CDC Disagrees.

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · December 30, 2020

Logic says they should have cases.  But the regime has done a good job of controlling the information.

14. N. Korea's rare party congress appears imminent as delegates arrive in Pyongyang

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · December 31, 2020

15. North Korea military parade spells out HUGE message seen from space ahead of key event

Express · by Edward Browne · December 31, 2020

This is the demand from the regime for all Korean people in the north: ‘결사옹위’ – “which means to defend with one’s life.”  It is all about defending Kim Jong-un and the regime with one's life.

16. North Korean defector chases acting dream in South, finds role as unification advocate

entertainment.inquirer.net · by TJ Burgonio · December 29, 2020

----------

"The many are more incorruptible than the few; they are like the greater quantity of water which is less easily corrupted than a little." 

- Aristotle 

“We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.” 

- Abraham Lincoln

“To think that because those who wield power in society wield in the end that of government, therefore it is of no use to attempt to influence the constitution of the government by acting on opinion, is to forget that opinion is itself one of the greatest active social forces. One person with a belief is a social power equal to ninety-nine who have only interests.”

- John Stuart Mill, Considerations on Representative Government

“Knowledge Wins Episode 4 - Great Power Competition”

Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfjAuUkcg_s

Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QMj59GTClc

Part 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6GVFPFw0gY

Synopsis: COL Bryan Groves and MAJ Steve Ferenzi from the U.S. Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) G-5 Strategic Planning Division discuss "Great Power Competition” and ARSOF’s role in support of the National Defense Strategy in this three-part series hosted by the U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School.  They describe how USASOC is approaching the simultaneous challenge of executing daily C-VEO operations, contributing to competition against China and Russia below the level of armed conflict, and preparing to support the Army and Joint Force in future Large-Scale Combat Operations. Their discussion offers vignettes to highlight ARSOF’s irregular warfare efforts across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, and examines the utility of C-VEO as a “way” to compete with the Nation’s adversaries.

The Knowledge Wins Podcast is an official publication of the U.S. Army JFK Special Warfare Center and School.

https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-proxies-and-american-strategy-in-africa/

From the team at the Irregular Warfare podcast, who interview Maj. Gen. Marcus Hicks, who served as the commander of Special Operations Command Africa from 2017 to 2019, and Dr. Eli Berman, co-editor of the book Proxy Wars: Suppressing Violence through Local Agents.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. S. Korea to allow troops, citizens working for USFK to get COVID-19 vaccinations

2. N.K. leader helms politburo meeting to prepare for party congress in early January

3. 5 N.K. defectors face forcible repatriation after arrest in China: UN human rights office

4. Experts mixed on North Korean leader's messages in congress

5. KATUSA troops to be first Koreans to get vaccinated

6. North Korea can change - but only if information gets in

7.  How can a divided America hope to build peace on the Korean peninsula?

8. Report: North Korea cracks down on foreign currency transactions

9. US Must Commit to Arms Reduction If It Wants North Korea to Do So

10. Activists in South Korea file petition against anti-leaflet law

11. South Koreans lose faith in promise of improved human rights in the North: survey

12. North Korean soldier defects with weapon and ammo across Sino-North Korean border

13. US-North Korean Dialogue at 'Crossroads,' Analysts Say

14. N. Hamgyong Province intensifies efforts to prevent rice from being taken out of rural towns

15. South Korea: New infections above 1,000 for 2nd day, variant cases rise to 5

16. Why it's getting harder to escape from North Korea

17. Kim Yo Jong set to be second-in-command of N. Korea

18. Moon names new justice minister, mulls Blue House reshuffle

19. 6 countries provide $10 million in food aid to North Korea this year: UN

1. S. Korea to allow troops, citizens working for USFK to get COVID-19 vaccinations

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 30, 2020

I would recommend that all members (Korea and US personnel) of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command headquarters as well as all the combined component headquarters such as the Combined Force Air Component Command at Osan AB.  All combined headquarters that work together on a daily basis should be vaccinated.  If you want to be ready to fight tonight then all combined personnel need to be vaccinated because it is the ROK/US CFC that is the command that will "fight tonight."  USFK is simply the force provider to the ROK/US CFC.  It is the ROK/US CFC that is charged by both nations to deter north Korea, defend South Korea, and defeat the nKPA should it attack the South.

2. N.K. leader helms politburo meeting to prepare for party congress in early January

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 30, 2020

Early January...What will be the date?  And will Kim make a New Year's Speech?

I cannot wait to read the 'spin" on the "innovative achievements and progress" of the 80 day campaign.

3. 5 N.K. defectors face forcible repatriation after arrest in China: UN human rights office

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 30, 2020

China is complicit in north Korean human rights abuses and crimes against humanity.

4. Experts mixed on North Korean leader's messages in congress

The Korea Times · December 30, 2020

Kim will keep us guessing.

5. KATUSA troops to be first Koreans to get vaccinated

The Korea Times · December 30, 2020

We should be vaccinating all members of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command headquarters, ROK and US military personnel, not just KATUSAs assigned to USFK.  (KATUSA - Korean Augmentee to the US Army - a program that dates back to the Korean War).

We also have to have some concern about the message sent by vaccinating KATUSAs. There has long been the perception that KATUSAs come from families of wealth and influence and they use their positions to get their sons assigned as KATUSAs rather than as conscripts in the regular ROK military.  There is the perception that life as a KATUSA is much better than as a regular conscripted ROK soldier.  This has the potential to stoke arguments about class divisions in the ROK military,

6. North Korea can change - but only if information gets in

Financial Times · by Andrei Lankov · December 29, 2020

I recall hearing Andrei speaking at a conference about the importance of information and telling us that he is a success story for VOA, Radio Free Europe and the BBC .  The information from those sources helped him to decide to defect from the Soviet Union.  A key point that he made that always sticks with me is that the information from these sources was trusted.

We should also note that Andrei has experience in north Korea.

7. How can a divided America hope to build peace on the Korean peninsula?

SCMP · by Mark Tokola and Juni Kimn · December 29, 2020

A couple of very  interesting rhetorical questions.

Conclusion:

“What does this mean for ongoing threats such as the one posed by North Korea? From Pyongyang’s perspective, the partisan divide in the US reduces the pressure to negotiate. Kim Jong-un would have reason to doubt whether any US promise or reprimand intended to encourage the elimination of his weapons of mass destruction would be carried through.

And it would not be just North Korea that would doubt our commitments. Regional partners essential to engagement with Pyongyang such as South Korea, China and Japan would also wonder about coordinating with Washington in case they are wrong-footed amid the partisan shift in US foreign policy every four years.

America’s current hyper-partisanship may make it quixotic to hope for a bipartisan foreign policy, even though it would promote our national interest. Maybe the best we can hope for is to choose a few key areas in which both Democratic and Republican parties might engage in their own quiet diplomacy to settle on a common approach before advancing. It would be a start.”

8. Report: North Korea cracks down on foreign currency transactions

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · December 28, 2020

This is one of the most important actions taken by the regime to sustain its control over the population and markets.  I believe it will eventually blow back on the regime.

9. US Must Commit to Arms Reduction If It Wants North Korea to Do So

truthout.org · by Hyun Lee · December 28, 2020

One of the most naive OpEds I have read recently.  It is based on a complete misunderstanding of the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

10. Activists in South Korea file petition against anti-leaflet law

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · December 29, 2020

Can popular support against the law be generated or will it only come from activists which the Moon administration can ignore?

11. South Koreans lose faith in promise of improved human rights in the North: survey

SCMP· by John Power · December 30, 2020

We must never forget that Kim Jong-un fears the Korean people living in the north more than he fears the US and South Korea.

Kim must demy the human rights of the Korean people in order to remain in power.  We can expect no voluntary change from him because to do so puts him at great personal risk.”

12. North Korean soldier defects with weapon and ammo across Sino-North Korean border

dailynk.com · December 30, 2020

Just one?  Acting alone?  It is when we start seeing small units defect we will not the three military chains of control are breaking down.  Note the political officer's conduct (one of the three chains of control).

And there is a lot more to this article (landmines on the border and what appear to be "friendly fire" incidents).

13. US-North Korean Dialogue at 'Crossroads,' Analysts Say

voanews.com · by Jason Strother

Top-down or bottom-up, the onus remains on Kim Jong-un. Does he sincerely want to negotiate?

Key points:

“Stephen Biegun, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and envoy to denuclearization talks with the north, underscored some of these unfulfilled ambitions in December during what was likely his swan song visit to Seoul.

“You might wonder if I am disappointed that we did not accomplish more over the past two years. I am,” he said during a speech at a local think tank, according to State Department transcripts.

“Despite setbacks, disappointments, and missed opportunities over the past two years, I believe no less today than the day I first took on this responsibility that the vision President Trump and Chairman Kim have shared for the Peninsula is possible, and that we are not done,” he said.

But North Korea is showing no sign that it is ready to resume dialogue with the United States; it has spent much of this year in a self-imposed quarantine, locking down its borders to almost all foreign trade and humanitarian assistance to shield itself from the pandemic. And now faced with change in U.S. leadership, Pyongyang has yet to acknowledge President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the November polls and the loss of its former negotiating partner in the White House.”

14. N. Hamgyong Province intensifies efforts to prevent rice from being taken out of rural towns

dailynk.com· by Jong So Yong · December 30, 2020

I don't think we can imagine the suffering and desperation among the Korean people living in the north.

15. South Korea: New infections above 1,000 for 2nd day, variant cases rise to 5

en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · December 30, 2020

16.  Why it's getting harder to escape from North Korea

BBC · by News

A 7 minute BBC video at the link. Some very useful statistics, anecdotes, and information on escapee operations and the situation in the north.

It is worth the 7 minutes to watch this.

17. Kim Yo Jong set to be second-in-command of N. Korea

donga.com · December 30, 2020

The most dangerous position in north Korea is to be designated the "number 2."  But it will be interesting to see if there is some from the 8th Party Congress that changes the north Korean constitution and party charter to allow Kim Yo-jong to have such a role.

18. Moon names new justice minister, mulls Blue House reshuffle

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Ser Myo-Ja

19. 6 countries provide $10 million in food aid to North Korea this year: UN

The Korea Times · December 30, 2020

Why turn down aid from South Korea through the World Food Program?

I think the simple answer is the Kim family regime wants to deal directly with South Korea and not through the World Food Program or any other international organization.  The regime wants to be able to execute its political warfare strategy against South Korea.  The recent response to the Kim Yo-jong threats and destruction of the Liaison building at Kaesong which resulted in the passage of the new anti leaflet law illustrate the regime's strategy..  Its strategy consists of subversion of the ROK and coercion/extortion and blackmail diplomacy to gain political and economic concessions.  Accepting money from the WFP does not help advance the regime's strategy.

Furthermore, the regime is not interested in aid to the Korean people in the north.  It wants any funds coming to north Korea to go straight to the Kim family regime's  "royal court economy" so that it can use the funds to keep the regime elite satisfied and for the development of its nuclear weapons and missiles.  It will accept aid as it is doing here but it does so reluctantly and in the hopes that it can eventually support its political warfare strategy or at least help maintain some stability within the population.

----------

"I would trade all of my technology for an afternoon with Socrates." 

- Steve Jobs

"She had not spoken false words, but truth can be outraged by silence quite as cruelly as by speech."

- Amelia E. Barr

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism.” 

- George Washington

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. America's rule of law v. China's 'rule by law'

2. Signing of the RCEP and the Future Asian Order

3. Now is not the right time to split NSA and CYBERCOM

4. Pivot to Asia? We've Been Here Before and It Doesn't Work

5. Competition Is What States Make Of It: A US Strategy Toward China - Analysis

6. JBLM colonel accused of beating wife, threatening suicide during police stand-off

7. Fort Drum soldier, teen charged in death of Army corporal

8. Kim Philby: new revelations about spy emerge in secret files

9. Five Books That Explain the World By James Stavridis

10. New Low-Yield Nuclear Warheads That Biden Calls A "Bad Idea" Have All Been Delivered

11. Wuhan coronavirus infections may be 10 times higher than reported, China CDC study finds

12. A NATO In Asia? Not Going to Happen

13. Biden's Incoming National Security Adviser Faults Pentagon's 'Obstruction'

14. Even If It's 'Bonkers,' Poll Finds Many Believe QAnon And Other Conspiracy Theories

15. How Conspiracy Theories Like QAnon May Have Discouraged Postelection Violence

16. Opinion | Trump’s worst pardon is one you haven’t heard about

1. America's rule of law v. China's 'rule by law'

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · December 29, 2020

Excerpts:

“Congress should consider legislation declaring China’s contemplated new law a nullity and prohibit any U.S. cooperation to “repatriate” Taiwanese citizens to China. It also should revive the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act (TIPA) and extend its provisions to any Chinese regime actions against individual Taiwanese.

As for America’s own rule-of-law issues, after the fate of the U.S. Senate is decided in Georgia on Jan. 5, Congress should meet its constitutional obligation to certify the 2020 election, restore “domestic tranquility,” and begin repairing America’s status as the world’s leading democracy.

It also should address the need for the federal and state governments to examine their respective roles in generating higher confidence in the 2022 and 2024 elections than was evident in 2020. Achieving greater uniformity in the 50 state systems would be a good place to start.”

2. Signing of the RCEP and the Future Asian Order

thediplomat.com· by Oba Mie · December 30, 2020

Again, one of our biggest strategic mistakes of the 21st Century will be the withdrawal from the TPP.

3. Now is not the right time to split NSA and CYBERCOM

c4isrnet.com · by James Di Pane · December 29, 2020

Excerpts:

"And let’s not forget the timing. Right now, the U.S. government is reeling from a massive breach by suspected Russian hackers with sweeping consequences, making this an inopportune moment for large organizational changes that could hinder cyber operations.

Both the former commander, Adm. Michael Rogers, and current commander, Gen. Paul Nakasone, have expressed caution about ending the arrangement prematurely. Both have said the arrangement works and enables the close relationship between the two organizations.

The two organizations operate under different legal authorities. Cyber Command draws its authorities from Title 10, which governs military forces, and NSA usually operates under Title 50 governing intelligence functions. This mirrors how cyber operations work as well, with the need for close collaboration between intelligence and military operations.”

4. Pivot to Asia? We've Been Here Before and It Doesn't Work

The American Conservative · by Lyle Goldstein · December 30, 2020

As a student of Asian security my bias is for a focus on Asia.  We have been pivoting to Asia since the early Obama administration. But what do we have to show for it?  I am glad we recognize the importance of Asia but as a global power with global interests and global responsibilities we do a disservice to our national security when we try to set these kinds of priorities.  Yes strategy is about prioritization of ways and means but I think we need more depth to our strategy than bumper sticker talking points such as a pivot to Asia. 

5. Competition Is What States Make Of It: A US Strategy Toward China - Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by Kaleb J. Redden · December 30, 2020

This is a strategy tutorial from NDU. "This article provides a U.S. strategy for this challenge."

6. JBLM colonel accused of beating wife, threatening suicide during police stand-off

thenewstribune.com · by Stacia Glenn

Another tragic situation for our Regiment, the Army, and the nation.  At the same time we just had the 7th SFG NCO in the incident in Illinois.  And we have another violent incident involving soldiers from Fort Drum.

7. Fort Drum soldier, teen charged in death of Army corporal

armytimes.com · by The Associated Press · December 29, 2020

Another tragedy.

8. Kim Philby: new revelations about spy emerge in secret files

The Guardian · by Owen Bowcott · December 30, 2020

There is always more to the story.  And history is never final.

9. Five Books That Explain the World By James Stavridis

Bloomberg · by James Stavridis · December 29, 2020

10. New Low-Yield Nuclear Warheads That Biden Calls A "Bad Idea" Have All Been Delivered

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · December 29, 2020

11. Wuhan coronavirus infections may be 10 times higher than reported, China CDC study finds

foxnews.com · by Alexandria Hein | Fox News

I have not seen Wuhan coronavirus use lately. We should remember that it was the Chinese in January 2020 that first used the names Wuhan pneumonia and Wuhan virus.  It was not a name invented in the US.  Of course immediately following this the Chinese propagandists realized their mistake and worked to change the narrative that brought blame on China.  But now we have the "UK variant" and we have no issue tying the variant to a specific country.

12. A NATO In Asia? Not Going to Happen

The National Interest · by Zhuoran Li · December 29, 2020

Another Marshall Plan, another Goldwater Nichols, and another NATO are probably the three most overused analogies in national security dialogues.  But we are unlikely to see a military organization along the lines of NATO in Asia.  We need the Quad and Quad Plus to develop in accordance with the security conditions and the national identities of the countries in Asia.

13. Biden's Incoming National Security Adviser Faults Pentagon's 'Obstruction'

NPR · by Philip Ewing · December 29, 2020

Again, not a good look.

14. Even If It's 'Bonkers,' Poll Finds Many Believe QAnon And Other Conspiracy Theories

NPR · by Joel Rose · December 30, 2020

Please go to the link to view the data, graphs, and responses to some of the survey questions.

It boggles my mind that so many Americans believe in conspiracy theories and disinformation.  Especially QAnon.

But I guess there are those who follow people Michael Flynn.  He is now apparently hawling QAnon swag.

15. How Conspiracy Theories Like QAnon May Have Discouraged Postelection Violence

Slate · by Amarnath Amarasingam · December 29, 2020

I suppose this is some counterintuitive good news.

The counter to this from the extreme right is that if the election had turned out differently there would have been violence from the extreme left.

16. Opinion | Trump’s worst pardon is one you haven’t heard about

The Washington Post · by Alex Busansky · December 29, 2020

I have no words.

----------------

"I would trade all of my technology for an afternoon with Socrates." 

- Steve Jobs

"She had not spoken false words, but truth can be outraged by silence quite as cruelly as by speech."

- Amelia E. Barr

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism.” 

- George Washington

Full Article: https://warontherocks.com/2020/12/the-marines-and-americas-special-operators-more-collaboration-required/

By Gordon Richmond

A discussion from a U.S. Special Forces Officer at 1st Special Forces Group on future cooperation between SOCOM and the USMC for the Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations concept and how SOCOM can learn from the USMC's Force Design 2030 experience as it orients towards competition with China and Russia. The article also explores the role of relatively junior Marine officers in driving recent discussion and debate. 

The Indigenous Approach Podcast (from 1st Special Forces Command) discusses the 1st Special Forces Command Vision Document. The podcast episode is accessible through any of the below links.

Episode 2 – Vision for 2021 & Beyond:

MG Brennan, BG Marks, CW5 Holton, CSM Munter, and COL Croot discuss the command’s recently-published vision document.

Vision Document: https://www.soc.mil/USASFC/Documents/1sfc-vision-2021-beyond.pdf

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/vision-2021-and-beyond/id1534621849?i=1000495023082

Google Podcasts: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS8xMzg5MTc1LnJzcw/episode/QnV6enNwcm91dC01OTI3NDI4?sa=X&ved=0CAQQkfYCahcKEwj4hd3nyuXtAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4WHauijwcA

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3zyo6Avu7RHeA4gJ88gBcE?si=jgRG-WVFR2q7DM_wiQ0yRQ 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Sometimes the Tourniquet Works All Too Well

2. Government Officials Announce U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict, Promote Stability

3. Pay For Some Will Decrease to Cover Social Security Deferrals

4. Biden accuses Trump appointees of obstructing transition on national security issues

5. The Marines and America’s Special Operators: More Collaboration Required

6. War Books: Major General Mick Ryan's 2021 Reading List

7. Inciting Subversion by Association: 120 Days in Detention

8. FDD | International Criminal Court election could facilitate reset with US

9. Xi eyes unwavering development of China-Russia partnership

10. Why the WHO is urging vaccinated travelers to take coronavirus precautions

11. The Biden Administration Must Prioritize Extended Deterrence

12. US Department of Energy backs five advanced nuclear reactor concepts

13. Even Homer Gets Mobbed: A Massachusetts school has banned ‘The Odyssey.’

14. Beijing’s Bigger Honey Trap

15. Great Power War: How U.S. Special Operations Forces See the Future

16. The End of the Wilsonian Era: Why Liberal Internationalism Failed

17. Why America must retaliate after massive cyberattack from Russia

18. FAA approves small drones in the U.S. to fly over people and at night

19. Forget Command And Control. Navy Leadership Is About Care And Trust (Book Review)

20. As U.S. forces leave, Somalia’s elite fighting unit fears becoming a political pawn

1. Sometimes the Tourniquet Works All Too Well

WSJ· by Gerald Holmquist · December 28, 2020

This is quite a story.

2. Government Officials Announce U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict, Promote Stability

defense.gov · by David Vergun

I hope this initiative is sustained in the next administration.

3. Pay For Some Will Decrease to Cover Social Security Deferrals

defense.gov · by David Vergun

This is a "Bah Humbug" for military and government civilians.

4. Biden accuses Trump appointees of obstructing transition on national security issues

The Washington Post· by Amy B Wang, Jenna Johnson and  Dan Lamothe · December 28, 2020

Not a good look. I hope there is more to the story.

5. The Marines and America’s Special Operators: More Collaboration Required

warontherocks.com · by Gordon Richmond · December 29, 2020

An interesting argument for SOF-USMC collaboration. 

Gordon Richmond throws down the gauntlet to the SOF community here.  Write.

6. War Books: Major General Mick Ryan's 2021 Reading List

mwi.usma.edu · by Mick Ryan · December 29, 2020

More than books:  Includes web site resources, podcasts, journals, twitter feeds, and even a film.

This is a very useful resource for military and national security professionals.

7. Inciting Subversion by Association: 120 Days in Detention

madeinchinajournal.com · by Li Qiaochu · December 23, 2020

We should add this to the data for SERE training so we understand Cinese TTPs.

8. FDD | International Criminal Court election could facilitate reset with US

fdd.org · by Orde Kittrie · December 26, 2020

From my colleague Orde Kittrie. 

Conclusion: "The ICC has strayed far from its worthy founding objectives. The close US allies who are its leading funders should seize the opportunity, provided by the upcoming ICC election, to clean up the ICC and restore it to its core mission."

9. Xi eyes unwavering development of China-Russia partnership

xinhuanet.com · December 29, 2020

Note the recent Russia-PRC combined air operations in the Korean Air defense Identification Zone.

10. Why the WHO is urging vaccinated travelers to take coronavirus precautions

Axios · by Axios

11. The Biden Administration Must Prioritize Extended Deterrence

The National Interest · by Patty-Jane Geller · December 28, 2020

Excerpts:

“A No First Use policy signals to America’s allies that it may be unwilling to come to their aid no matter the circumstances, including chemical, biological, or overwhelming conventional attacks. Pledging to not use nuclear weapons first only reassures America’s adversaries, not its allies.

Ultimately, if Joe Biden wants to value alliances as a pillar of U.S. strength, then he needs to prioritize extended deterrence. That means fully resourcing the nuclear modernization programs that assure our allies and avoiding bad ideas like implementing a No First Use policy.

Strengthening relationships with allies is a worthy goal. To fully demonstrate that commitment to our allies, the next administration must prioritize extended deterrence.”

12. US Department of Energy backs five advanced nuclear reactor concepts

New Atlas · December 29, 2020

Conclusion: "All of these projects will put the US on an accelerated timeline to domestically and globally deploy advanced nuclear reactors that will enhance safety and be affordable to construct and operate," says US Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette. "Taking leadership in advanced technology is so important to the country’s future because nuclear energy plays such a key role in our clean energy strategy."

13. Even Homer Gets Mobbed: A Massachusetts school has banned ‘The Odyssey.’

WSJ · by Meghan Cox Gurdon · December 29, 2020

This is unbelievable. This has to stop.

Conclusion: "He’s right. If there is harm in classic literature, it comes from not teaching it. Students excused from reading foundational texts may imagine themselves lucky to get away with YA novels instead—that’s what the #DisruptTexts people want—but compared with their better-educated peers they will suffer a poverty of language and cultural reference. Worse, they won’t even know it."

14. Beijing’s Bigger Honey Trap

WSJ · by William McGurn· December 29, 2020

Excerpts:

“The is the missing backdrop to the Hunter Biden and Eric Swalwell cases. Mr. Swalwell isn’t accused of any wrongdoing, but does anyone believe he is the only U.S. politician (or staffer) compromised by a Chinese honey trap? As for Mr. Biden, even without criminal charges, shouldn’t a press corps so eager to report the false but salacious charges about Donald Trump at least consider the possibility that China may have incriminating evidence on the new president’s son?

Next July marks the 50th anniversary of Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to China. China has changed much since then, and so has its approach to America. Joe Biden might be tempted to think his son’s case and that of Mr. Swalwell will pass. But they won’t, because they are part of a much larger and more sinister China story to which Americans are only now waking up.”

15. Great Power War: How U.S. Special Operations Forces See the Future

The National Interest · by Kris Osborn · December 27, 2020

This is a very narrow and frankly, unhelpful, discussion of one small aspect of special operations in great power competition.

16 The End of the Wilsonian Era: Why Liberal Internationalism Failed

Foreign Affairs · by Walter Russell Mead · December 28, 2020

Conclusion:

“There are other, less Machiavellian ways to keep Wilsonians engaged. Even as the ultimate goals of Wilsonian policy become less achievable, there are particular issues on which intelligent and focused American policy can produce results that Wilsonians will like. International cooperation to make money laundering more difficult and to eliminate tax havens is one area where progress is possible. Concern for international public health will likely stay strong for some years after the COVID-19 pandemic has ended. Promoting education for underserved groups in foreign countries—women, ethnic and religious minorities, the poor—is one of the best ways to build a better world, and many governments that reject the overall Wilsonian ideal can accept outside support for such efforts in their territory as long as these are not linked to an explicit political agenda.

For now, the United States and the world are in something of a Wilsonian recession. But nothing in politics lasts forever, and hope is a hard thing to kill. The Wilsonian vision is too deeply implanted in American political culture, and the values to which it speaks have too much global appeal, to write its obituary just yet.”

17. Why America must retaliate after massive cyberattack from Russia

The Hill · by Douglas Schoen · December 27, 2020

Conclusion: "In order to confront the threat from Russia and China, we must bolster our alliances with our partners in Europe, a task that Trump often approached with disinterest or outright scorn. Biden enters office with the mandate to gather countries in favor of democracy to a stalwart resistance to counter the militaristic belligerence and aggression from Russia and China. This is a difficult feat that we must not and cannot achieve alone."

18. FAA approves small drones in the U.S. to fly over people and at night

VentureBeat · by David Shepardson · December 29, 2020

So when one of these crashes on your property who do you call and what do you do with the remains (and the delivery items)?

19. Forget Command And Control. Navy Leadership Is About Care And Trust (Book Review)

Forbes · by Roger Trapp · December 29, 2020

Conclusion: "This might not be quite what we expect of those who have developed their leadership skills in the armed services. But with many people finding reassurance in the involvement of the military in the current crisis, the book offers a fascinating glimpse into how caring, trust and performance are intertwined."

20. As U.S. forces leave, Somalia’s elite fighting unit fears becoming a political pawn

The Washington Post· by  Max Bearak · December 29, 2020

I hope we went in with the plan to work ourselves out of a job from the very start.  You can never know when the political plug will be pulled on an operation.  I think I will add that to my lists of adages and planning considerations.

-----------

"Democracy is a difficult art of government, demanding of its citizens high ratios of courage and literacy, and at the moment we lack both the necessary habits of mind and a sphere of common reference."- Lewis H. Lapham 

“We talk about the Constitution. We have to follow it. And I’m sorry if that’s not the outcome that you wanted.” - Adam Kinzinger

"Although our interests as citizens vary, each one is an artery to the heart that pumps life through the body politic, and each is important to the health of democracy." - Bill Moyers

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Human rights groups file constitutional complaint over leafleting ban

2. Coal Miners Mobilized ‘Like Slaves’ in North Korea’s 80-Day Battle

3. North Korea increases number of guard posts on border

4. USFK begins initial COVID-19 vaccinations

5. USFK Starts Coronavirus Vaccinations

6. US military reports 10 coronavirus cases in South Korea, two in Japan over holiday weekend

7. Kim Jong Un’s Nuclear Weapons Got More Dangerous Under Trump

8. S. Korea's new top nuclear envoy holds phones talks with Chinese, Russian counterparts

9. Kim Jong Un likely to skip New Year's speech, report says

10. Defense ministry vows 'active push' for assessment of conditions for OPCON transfer next year

11. Moon becomes vaccine-buyer-in-chief

12. U.S. flies reconnaissance plane over Korea amid report of military parade preparations in Pyongyang

13. N. Korea could conduct ICBM test early next year: think tank

14. Moderna agrees to supply vaccines for 20 mln to S. Korea from Q2 2021: Cheong Wa Dae

15. USFK under Biden leadership is ‘equation of higher degree’

16. Moon to Reshuffle Cabinet Next Month

1. Human rights groups file constitutional complaint over leafleting ban

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 29, 2020

Will the Moon administration get the message?

2. Coal Miners Mobilized ‘Like Slaves’ in North Korea’s 80-Day Battle

rfa.org· by Hyemin Son

Why do you think I call north Korea the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State?

3. North Korea increases number of guard posts on border

dailynk.com· by Mun Dong Hui · December 29, 2020

The regime appears to be trying to exert maximum control over the border and the Korean people.

4. USFK begins initial COVID-19 vaccinations

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 29, 2020

General Abrams leading the way.

Excerpts:

The Moderna vaccine was authorized for emergency use earlier this month and taking a vaccine is not mandatory but voluntary.

But Abrams said, "I strongly encourage all eligible individuals to receive the vaccine."

"The COVID-19 vaccine is another tool that will help USFK maintain a robust combined defensive posture and our 'Fight Tonight' readiness approach," he said.

5. USFK Starts Coronavirus Vaccinations

english.chosun.com· December 29, 2020

I would hope we would have begun vaccinating KATUSAs and Korean civilian employees as well.  Beyond that I would recommend we vaccinate all members of the ROK/US CFC, US and Korean military personnel.  We need to do this if we are going to conduct the winter Combined Command Post training event in February/March.

6. US military reports 10 coronavirus cases in South Korea, two in Japan over holiday weekend

Stars and Stripes· by Akifumi Ishikawa· December 28, 2020

7. Kim Jong Un’s Nuclear Weapons Got More Dangerous Under Trump

Bloomberg · by Jon Herskovitz · December 28, 2020

October 10th showed us that Kim Jong-un has always prioritized the development of military capabilities over the welfare of the Korean people living in the north. We must understand the true nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

Nuclear weapons, missiles, conventional weapons, military research.

Yes, the popular view is to blame Trump and his unconventional, experimental top-down, pen-pail diplomacy, but we must understand the blame lies with Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime. The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.  Until we make this basis of our strategic assumptions (along with the objectives and strategy), we will not be able to solve the "Korea question" and put an end to the nuclear threat and the crimes against humanity.

8. S. Korea's new top nuclear envoy holds phones talks with Chinese, Russian counterparts

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 29, 2020

It may be performance, but I think the new envoy is beginning his shaping operation to prepare for the incoming Biden administration.

9. Kim Jong Un likely to skip New Year's speech, report says

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · December 28, 2020

Will he or won't he?

10. Defense ministry vows 'active push' for assessment of conditions for OPCON transfer next year 

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 28, 2020

For OPCON transition to happen next year we must achieve the conditions.  We should keep in mind the conditions were agreed to by both the ROK and US leadership.  They were based on analysis and recommendation by Korean and US military professionals.  Failure to achieve those conditions before OPCON transition occurs will put the security of South Korea and the ROK/US alliance at risk.

Now if the conditions need to be reassessed then this needs to be discussed and agreed to at the MCM/SCM.  However, the reassessment needs to be done by professionals and not for political reasons.

OPCON transition is very important for the alliance and it must be done right.  Of course, politics dominates the decision-making but the military professionals must continue to advise the political leaders about the security conditions and consequences of failing to achieve those conditions.

11. Moon becomes vaccine-buyer-in-chief

n.news.naver.com· by Ser Myo-Ja

12. U.S. flies reconnaissance plane over Korea amid report of military parade preparations in Pyongyang

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · December 29, 2020

We must keep our eye on the regime.

13. N. Korea could conduct ICBM test early next year: think tank

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · December 29, 2020

Of course, it could.  Blackmail diplomacy is in the regime's DNA (Blackmail diplomacy - the use of increased tensions and provocations to gain political and economic concessions).   We must not forget that the number one short-term objective is to get sanctions relief.  Kim has promised the elite and military leadership that he could play Trump and Moon and get sanctions relief without giving up his nuclear weapons.  According to my friends who have escaped from north Korea, this is one of the biggest failures of the Kim family regime in 7 decades.  This has put Kim under enormous internal pressure.  Combined with COVID, the failed economy, the natural and humanitarian disasters, the draconian population and resources control measures and the coming humanitarian crisis for the Korea people all combine to create a perfect storm for the regime.  So we are likely to see Kim continue blackmail diplomacy and execute his political warfare strategy in the short term in support of his long term objectives to dominate the Korean peninsula.  However, things could come crashing down if Kim cannot juggle all these dangerous balls.

14. Moderna agrees to supply vaccines for 20 mln to S. Korea from Q2 2021: Cheong Wa Dae

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · December 29, 2020

Some good news.

15. USFK under Biden leadership is ‘equation of higher degree’

donga.com· December 29, 2020

There is a confluence of events and conditions that may significantly impact the alliance.  This is an interesting analogy, 

Excerpt: "Experts in and outside the military express concerns that the USFK issues under the Biden administration will be like an “equation of higher degree” where domestic and overseas variables will work complexly while they were like an equation of the first degree under the Trump administration where the only variable was defense costs."

But, this paragraph illustrates the complex challenges we face.  Some think the incoming Biden administration is going to fix alliance issues but it is not as simply as that. 

Excerpt: "The perspective to view the USFK as a bargaining chip or leverage for negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear issues is a dangerous one that may give an excuse for misjudgment to North Korea and China and cause instability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region. Approaching the USFK issues with a limited outlook during the period of rapid changes in Northeast Asia’s security landscape surrounding the Korean Peninsula will be no help to the ROK-U.S. alliance and South Korea’s security."

16. Moon to Reshuffle Cabinet Next Month

english.chosun.com· December 29, 2020

When faced with a crisis, rearrange the deck chairs?

Excerpts:

“Moon had hoped to get away with a small-scale reshuffle, replacing only Choo and Minister of SMEs and Start-ups Park Young-sun, who plans to run for Seoul mayor. But the scope of the Yoon disaster, which forced Moon to apologize to the public for "causing confusion," makes it inevitable to get rid of a lot more dead wood.

Moon's approval rating has plummeted further because of the government's failure to secure timely supplies of coronavirus vaccines and a tough lockdown over the festive season.”

----------

"Democracy is a difficult art of government, demanding of its citizens high ratios of courage and literacy, and at the moment we lack both the necessary habits of mind and a sphere of common reference."- Lewis H. Lapham 

“We talk about the Constitution. We have to follow it. And I’m sorry if that’s not the outcome that you wanted.” - Adam Kinzinger

"Although our interests as citizens vary, each one is an artery to the heart that pumps life through the body politic, and each is important to the health of democracy." - Bill Moyers

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Wondering just how loyal a US ally Moon Jae-in is

2. Human rights and nuclear talks

3.  Kim Yo Jong Is Ready to Become the First Woman Dictator in Modern History

4. Kim Jong-un calls meeting as North Korea faces worst economic crisis since 1990s famine

5.  Biden has options with North Korea. Surrender mustn't be one | Opinion

6. New infections under 1,000 for 2nd day amid extended virus curbs

7. USFK to begin COVID-19 vaccination Tuesday

8. N. Korea logs positive economic growth for 1st time in 3 years in 2019: data

9.  N.K. leader could skip New Year's Day speech ahead of party congress: experts

10. N. Korea's paper emphasizes 'self-reliance' as 80-day campaign draws to end

11. North Korea creates new camp for violators of COVID-19 quarantine rules

12. North Korean authorities order more personnel to help recovery efforts at Gomdok Mine

13. Preparations underway for major party event in North Korea

14. Public disapproval of Moon's presidency close to 60 pct: Realmeter

15. Quarter of recent local COVID-19 infections originate among family members: PM

16. S. Korea to maintain nuclear phaseout scheme, scale back coal power generation

17. Mired in crises, North Korea's Kim to open big party meeting

18. Construction on North Korea's answer to Ibiza 'grinds to a halt'

1. Wondering just how loyal a US ally Moon Jae-in is

asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · December 28, 2020

Along with Dr. Tara O and Gordon Chang, Grant Newsham is becoming one of the most critical voices of President Moon's politics, especially toward north Korea and our shared values.

The benefit of the doubt: The Moon administration is naive about the Kim family regime.  The worst case: the possibilities that Gordon, Tara, and Grant describe.

I will state my recommendation again:  The Moon administration needs to reassesses its assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime and recognize what the regime is really about and not deal with it as they wish it would be.  It is critical that the incoming Biden administration work with the Moon administration and reassess the strategic assumptions and come to an agreement on what assumptions should be used to develop combined alliance policy and strategy toward north Korea.  Failure to have sufficient alignment on the strategic assumptions could cause greater alliance friction than the SMA stalemate and OPCON transition.

2. Human rights and nuclear talks

The Korea Times· by Tong Kim · December 28, 2020

I am loath to disagree with my good friend Tong Kim who has traveled to Pyongyang and interpreted for US senior leaders numerous times over many decades until he retired.  He probably has more experience with the Kim family regime than any American.

This conclusion troubles me: "While the North Korean human rights issue is important, it should be dealt with as a separate issue from that of denuclearization at an exclusive venue such as the U.N. Human Rights Council or in the forum of other advocacy organizations. Ultimately, the human rights problem may take longer to resolve than the nuclear issue."

I think human rights is more than an important issue. It is a moral imperative and a national security issue.  We cannot ignore it and we cannot shy away from it in the hopes that by not addressing it we will get a denuclearization agreement.  The denial of humans rights is critical to regime survival.  Again we should take a lesson from President Regan who, despite the contrary advice from his advisors, continued to emphasize human rights in the USSR with Soviet leaders even as arms control negotiations were taking place.  And there are practical reasons for emphasizing human rights: from educating the Korean people in the north about their universal human rights (which many do not understand are their inalienable rights) and giving them hope and preparing them for future unification under a United Republic of Korea to incorporating them into the information and influence activities strategy and the pressure campaign.  When we discuss the regime's nuclear program we reinforce Kim Jong-un's legitimacy and provide support to the Propaganda and Agitation Department.  But when we discuss human rights in north Korea we undermine the legitimacy of Kim Jong-un and we make him afraid.  We should keep in mind Dr. Jung Pak's key question:  Who does Kim Jong-un fear more:  The US or the Korean people living in the north?  It is the Korean people living in the north and armed with information and knowledge of their human rights.

3. Kim Yo Jong Is Ready to Become the First Woman Dictator in Modern History

The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk· December 28, 2020

Don Kirk's analysis on the likelihood Kim Yo-joong succeeding her brother.

However, Bruce Klingner may be tempting her fate here.  The worst position to be in in north Korea is the "Number 2."  People who are suspected to be the number 2 have not fared well in the past.

Excerpt: 

“Formal titles aside, she’s “likely the second most powerful person in North Korea” - the one whom her brother “trusts the most,” said Klingner. Whether she would “become leader if her brother passed away suddenly remains unknown, but certainly that’s a much stronger possibility than only a few years ago.”

4. Kim Jong-un calls meeting as North Korea faces worst economic crisis since 1990s famine

SCMP · December 28, 2020

I cannot emphasize how important it is that we pay attention to indications and warnings of instability inside north Korea.  The conditions may become worse than what we saw during the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996. 

I am not predicting regime collapse.  But I will say if regime collapse does occur, it will be catastrophic.

Kim Jong-un calls meeting as North Korea faces worst 

economic crisis since 1990s famine

• The leader will try to muster stronger public loyalty to him and lay out new 
• economic and foreign policies amid the Covid-19 pandemic
• If the virus does not ease, North Korea’s self-imposed lockdown will be extended, 
• which could destabilise food and exchange markets and trigger public panic

5. Biden has options with North Korea. Surrender mustn't be one | Opinion

Newsweek · by Abraham Cooper and Greg Scarlatoiu · December 28, 2020

An important OpEd from our Executive Director of HRNK, Greg Scarlatoiu and my fellow board member, Rabbi Cooper.

They counter Christine Ahn's naive views of north Korea and provide recommendations for including human rights in north Korean policy and strategy. 

Conclusion:

“The truth is that no one has the answer to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula. But caving to tyrants' demands isn't an option. North Korea is ruled by a regime that joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty, then withdrew and developed nuclear weapons. The Kim regime commits crimes against its own people and citizens of other countries. By entering a peace treaty and normalizing relations with a criminal regime in possession of nuclear weapons, the U.S. would be creating a precedent and blueprint for other tyrants: brutalize your subjects, develop weapons of mass destruction and the U.S. and the world will blink.

For all its monumental failings, the international system established after World War II has prevented another global conflagration. As enshrined in the preamble to the UN Charter, this system strives "to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war...to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small." Should sanctions on North Korea fail, unconditional surrender to a regime that denies human rights and threatens international peace and security is a prescription for disaster. It is a path that President Biden's team should never take. That path will be strewn with innocent victims of Kim's brutalities and bring the entire region to a dangerous, fully nuclearized dead end.”

6. New infections under 1,000 for 2nd day amid extended virus curbs

en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · December 28, 2020

Slightly good news.

7. USFK to begin COVID-19 vaccination Tuesday

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 28, 2020

Excerpt:

“Around 40 South Korean service members affiliated with the Korean Augmentation to the U.S. Army, known as KATUSA, are working at Allgood Army Community Hospital inside Camp Humphreys, and they could also be subject to the inoculation, officials said.

"Currently, working-level talks between the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), USFK and the defense ministry are under way about the matter," ministry spokesperson Boo Seung-chan told a regular briefing.

USFK is expected to make an official request for formal consultations with the Seoul ministry, and the two sides will make a related decision accordingly, a ministry official said.”

8. N. Korea logs positive economic growth for 1st time in 3 years in 2019: data

en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · December 28, 2020

I doubt the  numbers improved in 2020 and likely will not improve in 2021.  And this is likely a "false economy" with China and Russia enabling sanctions evasion in 2019.

9. N.K. leader could skip New Year's Day speech ahead of party congress: experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 28, 2020

A guessing game for Korea watchers.  Will he give us only a written statement or will he make an address from his well appointed office or will he give a public speech from a podium?  Then how will he dress:  A western business suit or the traditional "mao suit." Let's start a pool.

10. N. Korea's paper emphasizes 'self-reliance' as 80-day campaign draws to end

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 28, 2020

Does anyone think the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime have changed in any way over the last seven decades?

It will be interesting to read the Propaganda and Agitation Department's assessment of the success of the 80-day campaign.

11. North Korea creates new camp for violators of COVID-19 quarantine rules

dailynk.com· by Mun Dong Hui · December 28, 2020

One thing north Korea is good at is building camps and incarcerating the Korean people in the north.

12. North Korean authorities order more personnel to help recovery efforts at Gomdok Mine

dailynk.com· by Jong So Yong · December 28, 2020

Note: The Geomdeok mine is one of the largest lead and zinc mines in North Korea and in the world.

13.  Preparations underway for major party event in North Korea

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok

How big will the event be?   Think of all the resources committed for this event and what they could do for the Koreans who are suffering in the north.  Again, Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions are responsible for the suffering, not sanctions or the international community.  All the responsibility lies on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un.

14. Public disapproval of Moon's presidency close to 60 pct: Realmeter

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · December 28, 2020

While this may be a record high it is typical South Korean presidents toward the end of their single term always suffer from relatively high disapproval ratings.

15.  Quarter of recent local COVID-19 infections originate among family members: PM

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · December 28, 2020

16.  S. Korea to maintain nuclear phaseout scheme, scale back coal power generation

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · December 28, 2020

I think this is an ideological decision and I fear this will have long term negative consequences for South Korea's economic growth.

17. Mired in crises, North Korea's Kim to open big party meeting

AP · by Hyung-Jin Kim and Kim Tong-Hyung · December 28, 2020

When will the 8th Party Congress happen?  Will Kim give a New year's speech?  Enquiring minds want to know but Kim will keep us guessing.  But, on a serious note I concur that Kim is facing the most significant challenges of his 9 year reign. 

18. Construction on North Korea's answer to Ibiza 'grinds to a halt'

Stuff.co.nz · by Colin Freeman · December 27, 2020

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"Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule -- and both commonly succeed, and are right."

- H.L. Mencken 

"The best cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy."

- Edward Abbey

"The ballot is stronger than the bullet."

- Abraham Lincoln  

"The future is best decided by ballots, not bullets"

- Ronald Reagan