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9/8/2020 News & Commentary - North Korea

Tue, 09/08/2020 - 9:58am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. South Korea conservatives rebrand as People Power Party in tilt left

2. Typhoon Maysak causes death, destruction in Sinpo (north Korea)

3.  North Korea ready to produce newest weapons: report

4. Pyongyang elite 'volunteer' for flood recovery efforts

5. Pyongyang deploys "capital party member divisions" to typhoon-ravaged areas

6.  North Korea provides unprecedented, nearly real-time reports on typhoons

7. Lee In-young calls for 'small steps' to revive dialogue with North

8. Secretary Suga affirms hardline stance on Korea-Japan relations

9. Trump denies viewing 'love letters' from N. Korea's Kim just as such

10. N.K. propaganda outlet slams U.S., Japan for strengthening defense cooperation

11. WFP chief urges more int'l cooperation in helping N. Korea amid pandemic-sparked restrictions

12. N.K. paper highlights nationwide recovery efforts from back-to-back typhoons

13. U.S. advisory on N.K. ballistic missile procurement issued as guidance to private enterprises: source

14. Will COVID-19 change S. Korea's Chuseok holiday?

15. Time for Donald Trump to make North Korea an offer it can’t refuse?

16. Fact: North Korea already tested a submarine-launched ballistic missiles in 2015

17. More anti-government rallies planned for Foundation Day (South Korea)

 

1. South Korea conservatives rebrand as People Power Party in tilt Left

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · September 3, 2020

I missed the "left tilt." Of course, "people power" is often associated with left movements. Note some of the actions and platform items by the "new" party. It appears the Korean conservative movement is dead.

 

2. Typhoon Maysak causes death, destruction in Sinpo (north Korea)

Daily NK · by Lee Sang Yong · September 8, 2020

In this way North Korea is similar to any other country: there are always people who do not heed the warnings.

 

3. North Korea ready to produce newest weapons: report

Korea Herald · by The Korea Herald · September 8, 2020

 

4. Pyongyang Elite 'Volunteer' for flood recovery efforts

Chosun Ilbo · by Kim Myong-song · September 8, 2020

In the Army, we call this being "volun-told."

 

5. Pyongyang deploys "capital party member divisions" to typhoon-ravaged areas

Daily NK · by Ha Yoon Ah · September 8, 2020

North Korea is always on a "war-footing" for dealing with any crisis.

 

6. North Korea provides unprecedented, nearly real-time reports on typhoons

Korea Times · by Park Han-sol · September 8, 2020

This started with the original flooding this summer.

 

7. Lee In-young calls for 'small steps' to revive dialogue with North

Korea Joong Ang Daily · by Shim Kyu-Seok · September 7, 2020

Interesting comments. Invoking the German experience and using an interesting turn of phrase from CVID. But the Minister should the keep in mind and focus on his unification mission.

The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear and missile programs as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the North by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

 

8. Secretary Suga affirms hardline stance on Korea-Japan relations

Dong-A Ilbo · by [email protected] · September 8, 2020

Does not bode well for Korea-Japan relations.

 

9. Trump denies viewing 'love letters' from N. Korea's Kim just as such

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · September 8, 2020

 

10. N.K. propaganda outlet slams U.S., Japan for strengthening defense cooperation

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · September 8, 2020

Yes, we must stop the "military collusion" between the US and Japan. Someday I will gift a new thesaurus to the Propaganda and Agitation Department.

 

11. WFP chief urges more int'l cooperation in helping N. Korea amid pandemic-sparked restrictions

Yonhap News Agency · by Koh Byung-joon & Yi Wonju · September 8, 2020

Donor fatigue? But international and non-government organizations do not want to provide aid without sufficient transparency.

 

12. N.K. paper highlights nationwide recovery efforts from back-to-back typhoons

Yonhap News Agency · by Koh Byung-joon · September 8, 2020

 

13. U.S. advisory on N.K. ballistic missile procurement issued as guidance to private enterprises: source

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · September 8, 2020

 

14. Will COVID-19 change S. Korea's Chuseok holiday?

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · September 8, 2020

 

15. Time for Donald Trump to make North Korea an offer it can’t refuse?

National Interest · by Doug Bandow · September 7, 2020

I recall the President and Secretary of State have sent such messages and made offers of assistance to the regime back in March.

An agreement between now and the election?  A pipedream. 

 

16. Fact: North Korea Already Tested a Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles in 2015

National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · September 7, 2020

As I have been reminded by Dr. Bruce Bechtol, this SLBM the North has been developing does not appear to be an ICBM. President Trump's agreement with Kim is not to test nuclear weapons and ICBMs, so an actual test might not technically violation their agreement.

 

17. More Anti-Government Rallies Planned for Foundation Day (South Korea)

Chosun Ilbo · by Choo Yoo-mi · September 8, 2020

 

“Our society buries most of those that contribute above their station. It disbelieves them, labelling them whatever nickname will soil their reputation the most at the time. That's the standard protocol for political and economic warfare.'

- Anita B. Sulser, PhD, We Are One

"Happiness is the meaning and the purpose of life, the whole aim and end of human existence."

- Aristotle

“Life isn't about finding yourself. Life is about creating yourself."

- George Bernard Shaw

09/07/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Mon, 09/07/2020 - 9:27am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. FBI Sweep of China Researchers Leads to Cat-and-Mouse Tactics

2.  We Are Already Behind Enemy Lines: Lessons from the Secretive Online Fight Against the Islamic State

3.  Why We Tweet: General Officer Use of Social Media to Engage, Influence, and Lead

4.  The return of the Blob

5.  Journalists Aren't the Enemy of the People. But We're Not Your Friends.

6. 'October Surprise' might be more surprising this time

7. Non-negotiable: all military members will be subject to Trump's payroll tax deferral

8. Pentagon to Employees: How Can We Boost Diversity?

9. Lessons From Three Years in an Iranian Prison

10. 'Sci-Fi Awesome'-A U.S. Army Howitzer Just Shot Down A Cruise Missile

11. Be Glad That Taiwan Didn't Shoot Down A Chinese Fighter - And Start A War

12. The Army Is Working To Field A Ground-Launched Strike Version Of The Navy's SM-6 Missile

13. Why is China so worried about the new alliance between Taiwan and Somaliland?

14. Philippines Duterte pardons U.S. Marine convicted of murdering transgender woman

15. The Ugly Truth about China's Crackdown on Its Uighur Population

 

1. FBI Sweep of China Researchers Leads to Cat-and-Mouse Tactics

WSJ · by Kate O'Keeffe and Aruna Viswanatha· September 7, 2020

So I guess the question is how many of these spies have we not detected?

 

2. We Are Already Behind Enemy Lines: Lessons from the Secretive Online Fight Against the Islamic State

warontherocks.com · by Len "Loni" Anderson · September 7, 2020

Key point: "In short, we need a force not only prepared to fight tonight in a possible combat zone but also actively engaged and contesting the gray zone in the present. Designing a force that can do both is the vexing problem that many - including Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger - have recently highlighted. We believe the approach refined by task force ARES over several years campaigning against the Islamic State offers solutions applicable across the joint force. As a bonus, these are changes the Marine Corps can experiment with and implement now without waiting for a redesigned force in 2030."

 

3. Why We Tweet: General Officer Use of Social Media to Engage, Influence, and Lead

Strategy Bridge · by Mick Ryan, Tammy Smith, Patrick Donahoe · September 7, 2020

I will have to update my twitter feed to add some of these new people to follow (though I do follow many already).  Some good recommendations below.

 

4. The return of the Blob

spectator.us · by Robert D. Kaplan · September 4, 2020

The subtitles for this essay could be "If VP Biden is elected" or "a defense of the Blob."  The other key point is if President Trump is re-elected it could be the end of the think tank model as we know it.

 

5. Journalists Aren't the Enemy of the People. But We're Not Your Friends.

The New York Times · by Ben Smith · September 6, 2020

Nor should they be.  But they should be professional colleagues who have a critically important job to do in support of our nation.

 

6. 'October Surprise' might be more surprising this time

asiatimes.com · by Bhim Bhurtel · September 7, 2020

What can really surprise us?  I think a good surprise would be to have no surprise at all.  A short summary of some past political October surprises.

 

7. Non-negotiable: all military members will be subject to Trump's payroll tax deferral

federalnewsnetwork.com · by Nicole Ogrysko

This could be devastating for many people if this withholding is later collected and not forgiven and the payroll tax must be eventually paid.  The right thing to do to protect yourself would seem to be to set aside this short term increase in take home and be prepared to pay it back on demand.  But that would defeat the purpose of putting more money in households to provide more purchasing power to sustain the economic engine.

 

8. Pentagon to Employees: How Can We Boost Diversity?

defenseone.com · by Courtney Bublé

Our personnel systems need a lot of work in a lot of areas.

 

9. Lessons From Three Years in an Iranian Prison

Foreign Affairs · by Wang Xiyue · September 3, 2020

A fascinating read.

Conclusion: "The United States is a lot more important for Iran than Iran is for the United States. But Iran is a spoiler power that can cause great damage to the interests of the United States and its allies. This destructive capability is the principal leverage Iran wields. Washington should never lose sight of it, no matter how polarized debates on Iran become. Wishful thinking about the capabilities of Iranian moderates or the possibility of changing the revolutionary nature of the Islamic Republic actually helps fuel the anti-American rhetoric and disinformation of the Iranian regime and allows it to take advantage of the political divisions inside the United States.

 

10. 'Sci-Fi Awesome'-A U.S. Army Howitzer Just Shot Down A Cruise Missile

Forbes · by David Axe · September 5, 2020

Could be a game changer?

 

11. Be Glad That Taiwan Didn't Shoot Down A Chinese Fighter - And Start A War

Forbes · by Michael Peck · September 4, 2020

I missed this yesterday in my search about this alleged incident that did not take place. Thanks to a friend for flagging this.

I also received these important comments from a very experienced China watcher responding to my query about propaganda for the Chinese.  This is very much worth reading and considering.

This is an interesting example of the Chinese emulating the Russian approach on fake news.

The plane crash in China was picked up by some obscure Indian social media sources, some of which, if the trackers are to be believed, have ties in turn back to China.

Like various other media outlets, the Chinese can then report on the reports, thereby "verifying" that there are "claims" that the plane was shot down by the Taiwanese, while not implicating themselves in the process. (This is an old Soviet-era tactic, where stories would be planted in foreign publications, then "reported" on by TASS, etc.)

Since Taiwan has been gaining some momentum (such as with the Czechs), this is an opportunity to both muddy the waters about who might be irresponsible in any Taiwan Straits confrontation, as well as warning Taiwan about how far it can/should go seeking out new partners.

More worrisome, this goes to the Chinese belief that they can play with popular sentiment, and crisis management, in ways that the West tends to find concerning. WE (i.e., the West) are more worried about the Chinese government creating a nationalist wave that they can't control much more than the CHINESE are concerned about their creation of a nationalist wave they cannot control. This, of course, in turn plays into Beijing's hands. "Don't interact with Taiwan/intervene in the South China Sea, because it might 'unleash' a nationalist wave that we can't control!" That the wave was actually unleashed by the Chinese, who have formidable controls over their regular and social media is left unstated.

It's always fascinating to me that a nation that has the Great Firewall of China, intelligent AI algorithms that suppress various discussion threads, and thousands and thousands of censors humanly examining emails and the like, somehow is unable to control hackers, many of whom work for state-run entities such as the PLA. Or disseminating certain messages through state-run media (in accordance with directives from the Central Propaganda Department.)

 

12. The Army Is Working To Field A Ground-Launched Strike Version Of The Navy's SM-6 Missile

thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · September 6, 2020

Let's deploy this throughout Asia and all our base locations.

 

13. Why is China so worried about the new alliance between Taiwan and Somaliland?

The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith and Sophia Yan · September 7, 2020

The Great Power Competition is a global board game of Go or Wei Chi or Paduk.

 

14. Philippines Duterte pardons U.S. Marine convicted of murdering transgender woman

The Washington Post · September 7, 2020

 

15. The Ugly Truth about China's Crackdown on Its Uighur Population

The National Interest · by Sumantra Maitra · September 7, 2020

Curious is right.

Conclusion:  

“Experts on specialized topics often focus on why their area of research is more important than others. But everything starts with grand-strategy in this business. Foreign policy realists should be worried about everyone using the return of great-power rivalry to make weak cases for further continuous involvement in theatres which are inexorably declining in importance in the overall grand strategic game. Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific region remain important to the United States and to the survival of the United States as a great power. Africa and the Middle East, while important, are not existential. That doesn't mean the United States and the West shouldn't be prepared to challenge a great-power rival threatening direct interests. But just because there's a great power rivalry on, doesn't mean one needs to compete in every domain and every theatre. Prioritizing is crucial. And an intelligent strategy is to let China overstretch. If China is indeed getting involved in the Middle East...then it is a buck that one should be happy to pass on to China. France, the British Empire, the Soviet Union, and the United States suffered to order that region. Let China join the party and bleed itself dry.

The Ugly Truth about China's Crackdown on Its Uighur Population

China faces no backlash from the Islamic world because the global spotlight is constantly on the West trying to order that ungovernable stretch of land for more than two hundred years.”

 

----------------

 

"Life is a daring adventure or it is nothing at all." 

- Helen Keller

 

"There is only one way to avoid criticism: do nothing, say nothing, and be nothing." 

- Aristotle

 

 "We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light." 

- Plato

09/07/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Mon, 09/07/2020 - 8:34am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Will North Korea opt for provocation on party foundation day?

2. North Korea's sabotage plots foiled as UK intelligence cracks Kim Jong-un's secret codes

3. Kim Jong Un fires top official while touring typhoon-stricken areas

4. New virus cases dip below 200 for 5th day; tougher virus curbs in greater Seoul extended

5.  Mutually beneficial inter-Korean ties will help accelerate peace and nuclear talks: minister

6. Party members respond swiftly to N.K. leader's calls for recovery efforts

7. U.N. chief says diplomacy is 'only pathway' to sustainable peace and denuclearization

8. Navy upgrades command and control system  (South Korea)

9. N. Korea sets up "strict security zones" on Sino-North Korean border

10. S. Korea to use ARF meeting to urge N. Korea to return to nuke talks

11. Head of Hyesan's Ministry of State Security office steps down

12. Korea’s social media penetration rate ranks third in world

13. North Korea to send only low-level envoy for UN General Assembly meetings

 

1. Will North Korea opt for provocation on party foundation day?

The Korea Times · September 6, 2020

As I think through the regime’s potential for limited use of force or non-kinetic provocations I think it is important to examine what might be the regime's objectives and intent..  Specifically, I have four questions:

1. What is the regime objective for the action?

2. What effect is the regime trying to achieve with the action? (What is the broader effect beyond the immediate objective? How does it fit into it’s strategy?)

3. How does the regime expect the ROK and US, individually or collectively through the alliance, to react to the action?  Not what will we do, but what does the regime think we will do – too often, we answer this question with what we know or think we will do.  But it is what the regime thinks that is important and we may have conditioned the regime to think certain ways based on our actions or lack of them.

4. How does the regime believe it can prevent escalation after it conducts a limited use of force?  After all, by definition, limited implies preventing escalation.

Setting aside an accidental confrontation or miscalculation which can be hard to discern and is the cause of decision making paralysis – we wait to determine if the actions was accidental or deliberate.  - e.g., DMZ exchanges or naval engagements in the West Sea the major objective for the limited use of force is to achieve some information and influence effect.  A major part if not the major reason for any limited use of force is a Psychological Warfare objective.   We must seek to understand that to be able to counter it or neutralize the effects.

 

2. North Korea's sabotage plots foiled as UK intelligence cracks Kim Jong-un's secret codes

Express · by Marco Giannangeli · September 6, 2020

Yes, this is from the Express.  But if true, it is a fascinating story.

Excerpts:

“But one scrambled broadcast last week contained a message that will change the nature of how it issues commands for the foreseeable future.”

‘The message relayed information about the breaking of codes and instructed agents to simply ‘await further instructions’.”

“Western intelligence agencies believed they already possessed the key to Pyongyang's numbers-based code.”

“To MI6's surprise, however, the unidentified defector revealed that there was a second "code within a code" about which the West knew nothing.”

 

3. Kim Jong Un fires top official while touring typhoon-stricken areas

New York Post · by Tamar Lapin · September 6, 2020

What will happen to officials after this next Typhoon hits the north?

 

4. New virus cases dip below 200 for 5th day; tougher virus curbs in greater Seoul extended

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · September 7, 2020

The ROK government is being prudent.  Lifting the measures too soon will likely cause a new rise.

 

5. Mutually beneficial inter-Korean ties will help accelerate peace and nuclear talks: minister

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · September 7, 2020

I think it is important to keep in mind that the Kim family regime is not interested in anything that is mutually beneficial with South Korea.  For the regime, it is a zero sum game.  The north wins, the South loses.  When or if the north makes agreements it is because it sees an advantage and a move forward in its long con (concessions and sanctions relief while maintaining its nuclear and missile programs) to its ultimate strategic aim to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

6. Party members respond swiftly to N.K. leader's calls for recovery efforts

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 7, 2020

Of course.  Failing to respond swiftly means a swift trip to a gulag for re-education.

 

7. U.N. chief says diplomacy is 'only pathway' to sustainable peace and denuclearization

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · September 7, 2020

But for that to be true, it means the Kim family regime wants a diplomatic solution.  I do not think that is the case unless diplomacy means appeasement of the north and bringing the South under northern domination.

 

8. Navy upgrades command and control system

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · September 7, 2020

Are they doing the same for the other services and for a national military command and control system?  And most importantly is the ROKG investing in the C4I capabilities that will provide the necessary C2 to support the future ROK/US Combined Forces Command?

 

9. N. Korea sets up "strict security zones" on Sino-North Korean border

dailynk.com · September 7, 2020

Shoot to kill without warning.

 

10. S. Korea to use ARF meeting to urge N. Korea to return to nuke talks

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · September 7, 2020

Best of luck to Minister Kang.  I agree she has to try.  But I am not optimistic that the north will respond favorably.

 

11. Head of Hyesan's Ministry of State Security office steps down

dailynk.com · September 7, 2020

Hyesan is probably one of the most troubled regions of north Korea (from the regime's point of view).

Note the corruption.

 

12. Korea’s social media penetration rate ranks third in world

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · September 7, 2020

UAE (99%)and Taiwan (88%)  are number 1 and 2 and South Korea (87%) at number 3.   Interesting.

Korea’s social media penetration rate ranks third in world

 

13. North Korea to send only low-level envoy for UN General Assembly meetings

nknews.org · by James Reinl · September 7, 2020

North Korea to send only low-level envoy for UN General Assembly meetings | NK News

September 07, 2020

  

-----------------

 

"Life is a daring adventure or it is nothing at all."

- Helen Keller

 

"There is only one way to avoid criticism: do nothing, say nothing, and be nothing."

- Aristotle

 

"We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light."

- Plato

09/05/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Sat, 09/05/2020 - 2:45pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin


1. What the Pentagon’s new report on China means for US strategy - including on Taiwan

2. China vs. America: A new Cold War means new great power blocs

3. West Point superintendent says he’s taking action on racism highlighted by nine recent cadets

4. Army Cyber Command completes its move to Georgia’s Fort Gordon

5. Czech Republic and Taiwan deepen bilateral ties, announce new areas of cooperation

6. Trump says he won't cut funding for Stars and Stripes

7. This tiny nuclear reactor just won safety approval

8. Independent tribunal launched to judge claims of mass atrocities crimes in Xinjiang

9. Russian national indicted for conspiracy to introduce malware into a computer network

10. AFP to monitor social media to prevent recruitment of young suicide bombers (Phliippines)

11. How Americans get tricked into participating in disinformation campaigns

12. USC communications professor placed on leave after using Chinese word that sounds like racial slur

13. Stationing US troops in Poland is a bad idea

14. White House issues new cybersecurity policy for space systems

15. The ideology delusion: America’s competition with China is not about doctrine

16. The Pentagon is terrified of talking to reporters again

17. 52% of young adults in the US are living with their parents. That's the highest share since the Great Depression

18. Disdain for the Less Educated Is the Last Acceptable Prejudice

 

1. What the Pentagon’s new report on China means for US strategy - including on Taiwan

The Brookings Institution · by Michael E. O'Hanlon · September 4, 2020

Indirect defense of Taiwan?

2. China vs. America: A new Cold War means new great power blocs

The National Interest · by Yao-Yuan Yeh · September 4, 2020

In my opinion this is an ideological war (i do not think I can add "new"). The revisionist (and rogue, revolutionary)  powers who want to remake the international system to support their authoritarian surveillance state rule, centrally commanded market economies, rule by law, and denial of human rights versus the Arsenal or Alliance of Democracies (with shared interests, values, and strategies) that value liberal democracy, freedom and individual liberty, free market economy, rule of law, and respect for human rights. This may seem a simplistic breakdown of a bipolar world, but I think it is accurate.

But the real question is can countries walk the tightrope or have a foot in both camps?

3. West Point superintendent says he’s taking action on racism highlighted by nine recent cadets

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · September 3, 2020

I think it is important to take this seriously.

4. Army Cyber Command completes its move to Georgia’s Fort Gordon

armytimes.com · by Russ Bynum, The Associated Press · September 3, 2020

5. Czech Republic and Taiwan deepen bilateral ties, announce new areas of cooperation

republicworld.com · September 5, 2020

Will the Czech Republic be able to defend itself against the potential economic warfare attacks the PRC will likely initiate over this?

6. Trump says he won't cut funding for Stars and Stripes

The Hill · by Morgan Chalfant · September 4, 2020

The Stars and Stripes is a daily newspaper and not a magazine. Just saying.

7. This tiny nuclear reactor just won safety approval

bgr.com · by Mike Wehner · September 5, 2020

Fascinating.

8. Independent tribunal launched to judge claims of mass atrocities crimes in Xinjiang

rfa.org · by Joshua Lipes · September 4, 2020

Important reporting from Radio Free Asia.

9. Russian national indicted for conspiracy to introduce malware into a computer network

justice.gov · September 4, 2020

10. AFP to monitor social media to prevent recruitment of young suicide bombers (Phliippines)

untvweb.com · September 4, 2020

Is this something the military should be doing?  Is it the most effective organization for doing this?  Is this the right course of action? What are the legal and ethical implications?

11. How Americans get tricked into participating in disinformation campaigns

The National Interest · by Elinor Harty · August 31, 2020

We must vaccinate ourselves from disinformation and active measures.

I am doing some more dead horse beating here:

From our NSS on page 14.

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

12. USC communications professor placed on leave after using Chinese word that sounds like racial slur

nationalreview.com · by Brittany Bernstein

Sigh… Video at the link

13. Stationing US troops in Poland is a bad idea

The Hill · by Gil Barndollar, opinion contributor · September 3, 2020

I do not think this is a majority view.

14. White House issues new cybersecurity policy for space systems

c4isrnet.com · by Nathan Strout · September 4, 2020

The 6 page policy directive can be accessed here.

15. The ideology delusion: America’s competition with China is not about doctrine

Foreign Affairs · by Elbridge Colby and Robert D. Kaplan · September 4, 2020

Another view of PRC-US completion. An important essay. I guess I am guilty of viewing the problem through the wrong lens.

16. The Pentagon is terrified of talking to reporters again

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol

Terrified? I think it may probably be trying to avoid stepping in the partisan minefield in the election period.

17. 52% of young adults in the US are living with their parents. That's the highest share since the Great Depression

CNN · by Catherine E. Shoichet

Wow. That is quite a stat.

18. Disdain for the Less Educated Is the Last Acceptable Prejudice

The New York Times · by Michael J. Sandel · September 2, 2020

We need dignity and respect for all. This should not be acceptable. I know many people with much less education who are more successful than most (my younger brother is one - no college education yet runs his own business and has an income probably 5 times mine).

-----------


 "First, have a definite, clear practical ideal; a goal, an objective. Second, have the necessary means to achieve your ends. Third, adjust all your means to that end." 

- Aristotle

 

   "I have been impressed with the urgency of doing. Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Being willing is not enough; we must do." 

- Leonardo da Vinci

 

 "There are no traffic jams along the extra mile." 

- Roger Staubach

 

09/05/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Sat, 09/05/2020 - 2:16pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. ROK/US combined training protects integrity of the OPCON transition process

2. U.S. non-profit organization, training experts on North Korean Human Rights

3. Simon Wiesenthal Center Urges YouTube to Delete Korean Language Holocaust Denial Screed

4. China complicit in bypassing UN sanctions to launder North Korean money, report suggests

5. Abe Ruined the Most Important Democratic Relationship in Asia

6. Sinpo South Shipyard: Preparations for a Pukguksong-3 SLBM Test?

7. North Korean dissident calls out China for enabling brutal regime

8. Why U.S.-North Korea Diplomacy is Dead for This Year

9. Does Kim Jong Un want Trump or Biden?

10. The Dangerous North Korea (book reviews)

11. Seoul wants to defend North Korea human rights, reports say

12. Killing of NK leader's brother and others require U.S. review on chemical weapons: CRS 

13. Concerns over Chuseok holiday amid rising COVID-19 curve

14. New virus cases stay below 200 for 3rd day in S. Korea in 'positive' sign

15. Typhoon Haishen may skirt eastern coast of S. Korea, bring heavy rains

16. Abuse of power has become the norm in Moon's South Korea

17. North Korea officials to be punished after typhoon causes 'dozens of casualties'

 

 

1. ROK/US combined training protects integrity of the OPCON transition process

militarytimes.com · by David Maxwell · September 5, 2020

My latest OpEd.

2. U.S. non-profit organization, training experts on North Korean Human Rights

VOA Korea · by Jang Yanghee · August 29, 2020

Important effort by HRNK.  Our Director, Greg Scarlatoiu, is a great American doing great work for an important mission. (truth in advertising I am a member of the Board of Directors of HRNK). (And again, this is reporting that is probably unique to the Korean service of Voice of America).  The article is translated from Korean by Emily Spaugh, HRNK Research Intern, as it was only broadcast in Korean to the Korean peninsula.

3. Simon Wiesenthal Center Urges YouTube to Delete Korean Language Holocaust Denial Screed

wiesenthal.com · September 3, 2020

I hope YouTube takes action. It is interesting that North Korea would use this kind of propaganda.  Who is the target audience for this kind of propaganda and what effect are they trying to achieve?  I am sure it is somehow connected to trying to somehow shift the focus from the regime's horrendous human rights abuses and crimes against humanity and perhaps trying to lay the groundwork to say that all the accusations against North Korea are lies). 

The video (in Korean) is still online with 138,000 views since August 28 and 1296 comments and many of the comments are supportive (but in Koreas)

4. China complicit in bypassing UN sanctions to launder North Korean money, report suggests

The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith

This should be absolutely no surprise. There are three reasons for this. First is the three "No's" - China wants no war, no regime instability and collapse, and no nukes. It is batting .600.  But China wants to maintain the status quo on the peninsula and does not want North Korea to either initiate war or become unstable and that is more important than North Korea having nukes. Second, China is not interested in solving the ROK/US security problem vis a vis north Korea.  Third, there is probably money to be made for China.

5. Abe Ruined the Most Important Democratic Relationship in Asia

Foreign Policy · by S. Nathan Park · September 4, 2020

Strong critique here. I still say the only way to address this critical relationship is for the Korean and Japanese leaders to exercise decisive leadership and agree to make national security and national prosperity the priority while they agree to manage the historical issues. It will require leadership to quell the domestic political pressures in their own countries.

6. Sinpo South Shipyard: Preparations for a Pukguksong-3 SLBM Test?

beyondparallel.csis.org · by Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha · September 4, 2020

Will this be an October surprise?  Is this the new strategic weapon?  Will this be an early or late Christman gift (per the regime's threat from last year).

7. North Korean dissident calls out China for enabling brutal regime

New York Post · by Ebony Bowden · September 4, 2020

Mrs. Park is on a roll calling out both North Korea and China. The rest of the world needs to do so.

8. Why U.S.-North Korea Diplomacy is Dead for This Year

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · September 4, 2020

There is no silver bullet. There is no quick fix. The onus is on Kim Jong-un. He has chosen not to negotiate. If we think that giving him concessions will change is behavior, we have not been paying attention. We only will justify his blackmail diplomacy by doing so.

I will tell you this simpleton (me) does not think Kim Jong-un is unpredictable and incapable of reason. He is very capable of reason in the context of his nature, culture, history, and strategy as handed down from his father and grandfather.  But he is the head of a mafia-like crime family cult who seeks to dominate the Korean peninsula and is executing his long con to get relief from sanctions while keeping his nuclear weapons and missiles. So Mr. DePetris, by all means call me a simpleton.

9. Does Kim Jong Un want Trump or Biden?

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · September 4, 2020

Does it matter?  While he may make tactical adjustments depending on who is president his strategy and objectives will not change.

This is an interesting assessment. I am skeptical.

10. The Dangerous North Korea (book reviews)

The New York Times · by Gordon G. Chang · September 4, 2020

Gordon Chang provides thought provoking reviews of three recent books on North Korea.  I have read Pak's (which I think is excellent) but not Hanley's or Panda's.  Since Panda's book addresses Kim's command and control of his nuclear weapons I will have to read it.  And Hanley's provides another interesting look at the Korean War.

11. Seoul wants to defend North Korea human rights, reports say

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim

This is very good to hear. I hope the Ministry of Unification does get aggressive.  It is a moral imperative and national security issue. Kim Jong-un cannot be allowed to deny (and abuse) the human rights of the Korean people living in the north in order to remain in power.

12. Killing of NK leader's brother and others require U.S. review on chemical weapons: CRS 

en.yna.co.kr · by Byun Duk-kun · September 5, 2020

North Korea and Russia conduct assassination by chemical weapons. They must be held accountable.

The CRS 3 page report can be downloaded here.

13. Concerns over Chuseok holiday amid rising COVID-19 curve

donga.com · September 5, 2020

I am sure Korea is worried. It will be interesting to see how much travel actually and how many family gatherings take place and how much the virus may be spread.

14. New virus cases stay below 200 for 3rd day in S. Korea in 'positive' sign

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · September 5, 2020

15. Typhoon Haishen may skirt eastern coast of S. Korea, bring heavy rains

en.yna.co.kr · by 남광식 · September 5, 2020

If those heavy rains hit North Korea it will just compound the growing humanitarian disaster.

16. Abuse of power has become the norm in Moon's South Korea

Al Jazeera English · by Hyung-A Kim

Not a good look for President Moon.

17. North Korea officials to be punished after typhoon causes 'dozens of casualties'

The Guardian · by Agence France-Presse · September 5, 2020

The nature of the Kim family regime exposed.

-----------


 "First, have a definite, clear practical ideal; a goal, an objective. Second, have the necessary means to achieve your ends. Third, adjust all your means to that end." 

- Aristotle

 

   "I have been impressed with the urgency of doing. Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Being willing is not enough; we must do." 

- Leonardo da Vinci

 

 "There are no traffic jams along the extra mile." 

- Roger Staubach

 

09/02/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Wed, 09/02/2020 - 8:55am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. DOD Releases 2020 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China

2.  China moves toward new 'intelligentized' approach to warfare, says Pentagon

3.  Chad Sbragia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Press Briefing on the 2020 China Military Power Report

4. US-China conflict to unite Taiwan

5.  US seeks formal alliance similar to NATO with India, Japan and Australia, State Department official says

6. Voice of America Journalists: New CEO Endangers Reporters, Harms U.S. Aims

7. The United States, Taiwan, and the World: Partners for Peace and Prosperity

8. Russian Darkweb shares personal data of nearly every voter in Michigan, plus a million more voters in four other states - Meduza

9. Facebook takes down a Russian operation that recruited U.S. journalists amid rising concerns regarding election misinformation

10. Fear of a Black General?

11. Where are the Black officers? US Army shows diversity in its ranks but few promotions to the top

12. Indian special forces soldier killed in skirmish with Chinese troops

13. Are Special Forces still special?

14. British Special Forces and RAF heroes leading obliteration of ISIS bases in Iraqi caves

15. If Trump refuses to accept defeat in November, the republic will survive intact, as it has 5 out of 6 times in the past

16. Fort Hood commander loses post after incidents at Army base

17. Keep Military Heath Care Integration on Track

18. Taiwan to change passport, fed up with confusion with China

19. Here's What All Those Black Helicopters Were Doing Zipping Around Los Angeles Last Night

20. Entire world starting to unite against China's unfair practices, says Mike Pompeo

21. China seeks to set up military logistic facilities in a dozen countries: Pentagon

 

1. DOD Releases 2020 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China

defense.gov

The 200 page report can be downloaded here.  https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF

I am still waiting for the north Korea report. I was on the red team review committee in 2018 and it still has not been published (it was a very good report at the time) but the political leadership in DOD has continued to hold up its release.

 

2. China moves toward new 'intelligentized' approach to warfare, says Pentagon

Defense News · by Mark Pomerleau · September 1, 2020

 

3. Chad Sbragia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Press Briefing on the 2020 China Military Power Report

defense.gov

 

4. US-China conflict to unite Taiwan

By James Lee - Sat, Aug 29, 2020 page 8

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/08/29/2003742455

 

5. US seeks formal alliance similar to Nato with India, Japan and Australia, State Department official says

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3099642/us-seeks-formal-alliance-similar-nato-india-japan-and-australia-state - by Robert Delaney – 1 September 2020

A journalist queried me on this today.  Here is my response:

I explained the background on the Quad and that the concept has long been discussed well before this current era of Great Power Competition.  It is based on like-minded countries who share interests and values.  I also explained the history of past US attempts to establish NATO like alliances: e.g., NEATO, SEATO, CENTO and that we have to be careful because one size fits all and I reminded him that Steve Biegun's remarks were cautious on this point.  I also explained that this does take on new import in terms of China in that this Great Power Competition is an ideological "war" and nations and people have to decide what ideology is best for them - the authoritarian system and surveillance state with the state control of the economy or the free and open democracies with free market economy, rule of law, and human rights.  The Quad consists of like-minded countries and as an example for other countries who wish to remain democratic. I also touched on some of the political complexities to include Japan's pacifist constitution and India's great pride in remaining non-aligned.

 

6. Voice of America Journalists: New CEO Endangers Reporters, Harms U.S. Aims

NPR · by David Folkenflik · August 31, 2020

The letter can be view at this link: https://www.npr.org/2020/08/31/907764105/voice-of-america-journalists-new-ceo-endangers-reporters-harms-u-s-aims

Here is the twitter response from USAGM.  The question is will USAGM and VOA address the issues in the letter or are they only going to address a "process foul"?

 

7. The United States, Taiwan, and the World: Partners for Peace and Prosperity

state.gov · by David R. Stilwell, Assistant SecretaryBureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs

Prepared remarks of David R. Stilwell, Assistant Secretary Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs

 

8. Russian Darkweb shares personal data of nearly every voter in Michigan, plus a million more voters in four other states - Meduza

meduza.io

 

9. Facebook takes down a Russian operation that recruited U.S. journalists amid rising concerns regarding election misinformation

The Washington Post – by Elizabeth Dwoskin and Craig Timberg - September 1, 2020

What efforts have not been discovered? And I think it will get worse in the next 2 months unless we are all vigilant.

 

10. Fear of a Black General?

defenseone.com · by James Joyner

 

11. Where are the Black officers? US Army shows diversity in its ranks but few promotions to the top

USA Today · by Tom Vanden Brook

 

12.  Indian special forces soldier killed in skirmish with Chinese troops

The Guardian · by AFP in New Delhi · September 1, 2020

 

13. Are Special Forces still special?

thearticle.com · August 31, 2020

This is a UK view of the SAS.

 

14.  British Special Forces and RAF heroes leading obliteration of ISIS bases in Iraqi caves

Express · by Marco Giannangeli · August 30, 2020

 

15. If Trump refuses to accept defeat in November, the republic will survive intact, as it has 5 out of 6 times in the past

theconversation.com · by Alexander Cohen

I do not offer this as any kind of partisan statement (I belong to neither party).  Given all the breathless discussion of whether the candidates will accept the outcome of the election this provides a calm dispassionate analysis. It is an excellent history lesson as well as a study of our political process.

 

16. Fort Hood commander loses post after incidents at Army base

NBC News · September 1, 2020

 

17. Keep Military Heath Care Integration on Track

realcleardefense.com · by Thomas Spoehr

 

18. Taiwan to change passport, fed up with confusion with China

Reuters · by Ann Wang and Ben Blanchard · September 2, 2020

Surely this will surely stir the ire of the PRC.

 

19. Here's What All Those Black Helicopters Were Doing Zipping Around Los Angeles Last Night

thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · September 2, 2020

 

20. Entire world starting to unite against China's unfair practices, says Mike Pompeo

theprint.in · September 2, 2020

 

21. China seeks to set up military logistic facilities in a dozen countries: Pentagon

thehindubusinessline.com

 

 

"The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission."

- John F. Kennedy

 

"Don't forget what I discovered that over ninety percent of all national deficits from 1921 to 1939 were caused by payments for past, present, and future wars."

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

"It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets."

- Voltaire

09/02/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Wed, 09/02/2020 - 8:37am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. U.S. report accuses China of failure to implement sanctions on N. Korea

2. Rehearsals Underway at the Mirim Parade Training Ground

3. North Korea braces for another powerful typhoon

4. U.S. extends travel ban on N. Korea for third time, citing 'serious risk'

5. North Korea Ballistic Missile Procurement Advisory

6. Kim Jong Un may be furious about rumors of sister Kim Yo Jong's rise in power

7. North Korea's Stolen Bitcoin Loot Move Is 'Just Tip of the Iceberg'

8. N. Korea uses foreign software to produce online publications

9. University student arrested for spreading "false information"

10. Unification minister calls for Japan's support in improving inter-Korean relations

11. North Korea Army Quarantines Entire Company on Coronavirus Fears

12.  Korea on Periphery as U.S. Pushes for Indo-Pacific Security Pact

13. US hints at easing 'heavy concentration' of troops in Northeast Asia

14. North Korea Isn't Making New Plutonium for Weapons, Report Says

15. How Can Korea Pay for This Spendthrift Budget?

16. South and North Korea brace for two typhoons within a week

17. Seoul police reportedly investigating South Korea's largest crypto exchange Bithumb

18. South Korea's Main Opposition Party Changes Name... Again

19. N. Korean military agencies trip over each other to extract bribes

20. Two more N. Koreans crossed border into Samjiyon on Aug. 20

21. S. Korea-U.S. working group useful, function can be adjusted: Cheong Wa Dae officia

22. Beijing rejects U.S. report on Chinese warheads

 

1. For the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, It's the North Korean Regime, Not Kim Jong Un per Se, That Is the Threat

realcleardefense.com · by Scott W. Harold and Soo Kim

Interesting title.  The authors make an excellent point.  This is a very succinct but thorough assessment of the regime and its threats and ways ahead.  And we are grateful they acknowledged and linked to our maximum pressure 2.0 report.

As I have often written: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

1. U.S. report accuses China of failure to implement sanctions on N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 2, 2020

This should be no surprise.

The report suggested China's loose implementation of the sanctions regime may be partly attributed to its dual-track approach toward North Korea that seeks to prevent military conflict on the Korean Peninsula and also a collapse of the North's communist regime.

 

2. Rehearsals Underway at the Mirim Parade Training Ground

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · September 1, 2020

I am sure the north Korean soldiers hate parade rehearsals just as much as soldiers around the world.  But I bet no other soldiers practice as long and hard as north Korea ones.  it is amazing the amount of resources, time, and manpower committed to this.  Just think how all these resources could be more effectively employed for the good of the Korean people in the north.

We should be prepared for a possible provocation surrounding this event if the regime is unable to execute it or execute to sufficient standard.

 

3. North Korea braces for another powerful typhoon

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 2, 2020

The korean people in the north do not need this.

 

4. U.S. extends travel ban on N. Korea for third time, citing 'serious risk'

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 2, 2020

We do not need any more Otto Warmbiers.

 

5. North Korea Ballistic Missile Procurement Advisory

The very detailed 19 page advisory can be downloaded here: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/20200901_nk_ballistic_missile_advisory.pdf

I think this is an important action.  This is a very comprehensive advisory.  This contributes to a maximum pressure campaign.  It provides critical advice for businesses to "know their customer."  I think this advisory may also serve as a warning to businesses that they will not be able to plead ignorance.  Now they have a responsibility to ensure proper vetting of customers to protect themselves from potentially violating UN and U.S. sanctions.  Such violations will likely result in severe punishment. They have been warned.
The purpose of this advisory seems to be threefold: 1) Try to prevent support for the regime's ballistic missile program.  2) Continue to assert maximum pressure on north Korea directly by upsetting its supply chain. 3) Lay the groundwork for potential punishment of violators  by exposing north Korean tactics, techniques and procedures.
I think it is also interesting to note the other actions that have been recently taken in regards to north Korean cyber activities and procurement of funds through cyber theft.  It appears the US is taking direct action against the regime and its ballistic missile program and against its illicit cyber activities.  This should be a message the US has not stopped implementing maximum pressure (even though there is still much more we can and must do).

My FDD colleague Andrea Stricker added this important point:

It is key that the government is highlighting for industry how North Korea seeks items for its missile program which fall below export control thresholds. Exporters need continuously updated government guidance about the latest illicit procurement schemes and specific items targeted by Pyongyang so they can better implement "catch-all" controls.
 

6. Kim Jong Un may be furious about rumors of sister Kim Yo Jong's rise in power

New York Post · by Yaron Steinbuch · August 31, 2020

You do not want to be called the number 2 in north Korea. However, I do take this with a grain of salt.  From what I have heard from escapees it seems that Kim Yo-jong is the only person Kim Jong-un likely trusts.

 

7. North Korea's Stolen Bitcoin Loot Move Is 'Just Tip of the Iceberg'

cryptonews.com · by Tim Alper

I do not think it has to be either/or.  We need to improve defenses but we also need to be aggressive in tracking down the funds.  And I would add we also need to conduct offensive operations against north Korean hackers and north Korea organizations. 

 

8. N. Korea uses foreign software to produce online publications

dailynk.com · September 1, 2020

 

9. University student arrested for spreading "false information"

dailynk.com – by Jeong Tae Joo - September 1, 2020

He served at the JSA for 8 years.  Be careful of drinking too much.

 

10. Unification minister calls for Japan's support in improving inter-Korean relations

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 1, 2020

Given all the current friction between Korea and Japan I am not sure whether this call from the Unification minister be heard in Japan.

 

11. North Korea Army Quarantines Entire Company on Coronavirus Fears

rfa.org

This could be very serious.  If there is any kind of widespread outbreak with the military it could have destabilizing effects on the regime.

 

12. Korea on Periphery as U.S. Pushes for Indo-Pacific Security Pact

english.chosun.com - September 02, 2020 10:44

Of course, Korea interprets this as a slight. The Quad as a concept has been around for some time.  But Korea should ask themselves given the relationship with Japan could it become part of it?  And if it wants to become part of the Quad plus it will have to accept the concept of strategic flexibility of US forces.  Perhaps a step toward the right direction might be improving the relationship with Japan and the trilateral relationship with Japan and the US.  Unfortunately, Korea's actions surrounding the GSOMIA do not engender confidence that the relationship can be improved.

 

13. US hints at easing 'heavy concentration' of troops in Northeast Asia

The Korea Times · September 2, 2020

This being interpreted as laying the ground world for withdrawal of some or all US forces from Korea and perhaps from Japan in support of SMA negotiations perhaps with both Korea and Japan.  But strategic flexibility is key to the future for US forces and for the alliances.

 

14. North Korea Isn't Making New Plutonium for Weapons, Report Says

Bloomberg · by Jonathan Tirone · September 2, 2020

 

15. How Can Korea Pay for This Spendthrift Budget?

english.chosun.com

 

16. South and North Korea brace for two typhoons within a week

CNN · by Julia Hollingsworth, Yoonjung Seo and Sophie Jeong, CNN

 

17. Seoul police reportedly investigating South Korea's largest crypto exchange Bithumb

cointelegraph.com · by Helen Partz

 

18. South Korea's Main Opposition Party Changes Name... Again

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

Names:

New Frontier

Liberty Korea 

United Future Party

And now: People Power Party

 

19. N. Korean military agencies trip over each other to extract bribes

dailynk.com – by Jeong Tae Joo - September 2, 2020

Another indicator of potential instability.  If this is widespread it could lead to a breakdown in the multiple chains of control of the military.

 

20. Two more N. Koreans crossed border into Samjiyon on Aug. 20

dailynk.com – by Ha Yoon Ah - September 2, 2020

Another potential indicator of coronavirus getting into the north.

 

21. S. Korea-U.S. working group useful, function can be adjusted: Cheong Wa Dae official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · September 2, 2020

Kind of a tepid description.  I think it is more than useful.  But certain members of the Moon administration still want to use it as an excuse for failed intra-Korean engagement. I do not know why they refuse to admit the reason for failure lies with the Kim family regime. 

 

22. Beijing rejects U.S. report on Chinese warheads

Reuters · by Yew Lun Tian · September 2, 2020

They doth protest too much.

 

 

"The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission."

- John F. Kennedy

 

"Don't forget what I discovered that over ninety percent of all national deficits from 1921 to 1939 were caused by payments for past, present, and future wars."

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

"It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets."

- Voltaire

9/1/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Tue, 09/01/2020 - 11:44am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Company pleads guilty to money laundering violation as part of scheme to circumvent North Korean sanctions

2. Joe Biden would strengthen the U.S.-South Korea alliance, but is that best for America?

3. South Korea appoints new military chiefs amid OPCON plans

4. Key points in S. Korea's 2021 budget proposal

5. Unification ministry requests 3.1 pct increase in 2021 budget for inter-Korean projects

6. S. Korea seeks to increase defense budget 5.5 pct next year

7. S. Korea should lead post-Abe S. Korea-Japan relations

8. Kang reaffirms Seoul's commitment to peninsula peace, calls NK denuclearization 'integral'

9. Moon needs help!

10. Classical geopolitics for the 21st century: geopolitics, geography and strategic history

11. Pentagon official calls for distributing 'heavily concentrated' U.S. troop presence from Northeast Asia

12. Top N.K. officials, including nuclear missile development chief, visits typhoon-hit areas

13. Donations to UN relief fund for North falling well short of goal

14. South Korea charges intelligence officers with raping North Korean defector

15. America should double down, and not retreat, from its South Korean alliance

16. Joe Biden plans to freshen up Barack Obama's North Korea policy

17. Robert Gallucci: thinking through a new North Korea strategy for Joe Biden

18. Does Kim Jong Un have a wife? What to know about Ri Sol-Ju

 

1. Company pleads guilty to money laundering violation as part of scheme to circumvent North Korean sanctions

US Department of Justice · by US DOJ · August 31, 2020

Good. Justice is on a roll. We need to keep this up. We cannot allow the North Koreans or anyone to subvert the financial system.

 

2. Joe Biden would strengthen the U.S.-South Korea alliance, but is that best for America?

National Interest · by Jennifer Lind · August 31, 2020

Some good analysis in this essay however, I have to raise a big red flag about the statement below and the argument for forgoing support to the ROK. First, the comparison of NATO and the Cold War to the Korean peninsula today is not useful. Do we really think that, if we were not part of NATO and committed to the defense of Europe, we would have avoided a nuclear war with the USSR by sitting home while it attacked Europe? The same thing today with North Korea. Even if we packed up our marbles and went home, do we think that we would still not be vulnerable to a North Korean attack?  Would leaving the peninsula include US forces leaving Japan as well? This argument is idiotic and dangerous.

It is in this statement that I think the professors are really wrong. I think they would benefit from talking to South Korean officials.

The American people may thus decide that the partnership with Seoul is so valuable that it justifies accepting real risks of nuclear war. But the current in-between position - that Seoul is not with the United States in its critical regional mission vis-à-vis China, but that it expects the United States to risk its survival on South Korea’s behalf - would be (and should be) a tough sell to the American people.

First, this mischaracterizes the nature of the alliance. We are not in Korea just to defend South Korea.  We are there for our own interests in the region, the number one reason being to deter war.  Arguments such as this one will lead to war; whether we have troops on the peninsula and we contribute to the defense of the ROK or not, the US will suffer strategic effects. We also should consider how abandoning our ally (and not for good strategic reasons) will impact our other allied strategies.

Furthermore, South Korea's South strategy is designed to be complementary to the US Free and Open INDOPACIFIC strategy.  But we also need to respect the position South Korea is in, geographically as well its economic position vis a vis China. There is no doubt the ROK is committed to the alliance – despite what some professors, politicos, and pundits might think. But, it must walk a geostrategic tightrope and we must not treat South Korea as a puppet that simply does US bidding – which is, in effect, what these professors are arguing. It saddens and frustrates me to read such arguments.

 

3.  South Korea appoints new military chiefs amid OPCON plans

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · August 31, 2020

Ahem. I think we agreed to OPCON transition as far back as 2003 when Rumsfeld first informed President-elect Roh's emissaries when they visited DC after the election. The concept has evolved since then, and I think 2015 is when we finally agreed to the current plan.

The policy has been discussed jointly with the United States since 2015, when the two countries agreed to a preliminary plan on the transfer.

 

4. Key points in S. Korea's 2021 budget proposal

Yonhap News Agency · by YNA · September 1, 2020

 

5. Unification ministry requests 3.1 pct increase in 2021 budget for inter-Korean projects

Yonhap News Agency · by Koh Byung-joon · September 1, 2020

I wonder what will happen to these funds as North Korea is unlikely to accept these proposed "projects."  It seems like this money could be better spent on domestic issues such as COVID recovery.

 

6. S. Korea seeks to increase defense budget 5.5 pct next year

Yonhap News Agency · by Oh Seok-min · September 1, 2020

What is always interesting to consider is that it is liberal administrations who spend more on defense than conservative administrations.

 

7. S. Korea should lead post-Abe S. Korea-Japan relations

Dong-A Ilbo · by [email protected] · September 1, 2020

A few of my thoughts on the way ahead for Korea-Japan relations.

The only way for things to change is if there is a direct, personal commitment by each leader to work together to prioritize mutual national security first over the historical issues. One President or Prime Minister cannot change things. It has to be both of them exercising decisive leadership to do what is best for their countries and not what is politically expedient for their personal politics or their political base.

After ensuring GSOMIA remains in place and mutual coordination on national security issues, I hope they can resolve the economic and trade issues while managing the historical issues. I do not think the latter can ever be fully resolved, but through decisive leadership they can be managed.

They should meet as soon as possible, perhaps at a mutually acceptable location (Guam? Hawaii? if I were advising our President, I would host a meeting for them both so I could facilitate. But I am afraid that, with the election, this will not be possible). But the key is that both leaders need to meet and make a private agreement that they are going to manage the situation and prioritize their national security and national prosperity while managing the historical issues.

Time is short and they are unlikely to have any kind of significant breakthrough before the end of both of their terms (unless there is a snap election in Japan, the new Prime Minister will complete Abe's remaining term), though they could clean up the trade and economic issues and stabilize the GSMOIA issue. However, they can lay the groundwork for their successors. They can set an example on leadership and how to deal with each other with mutual respect.

 

8. Kang reaffirms Seoul's commitment to peninsula peace, calls NK denuclearization 'integral'

Korea Herald · by Yonhap · August 31, 2020

I hate to say it, but there will be no conclusive peace and no complete denuclearization as long as the Kim family regime exists. The ROK, with the support of the US, needs to have a long-term strategy to resolve the "Korea question." Within that strategy, you can work to negotiate denuclearization and there can be North-South engagement, but it must be in the context of the long-term objective of solving the Korea question.

 

9. Moon needs help!

Korea Joong Ang Daily · by Michael Green · September 1, 2020

Some good advice from Mike Green. President Moon should learn from his mentor.

 

10. Classical geopolitics for the 21st century: geopolitics, geography and strategic history

Real Clear Defense · by Francis P. Sempa · August 31, 2020

 

11. Pentagon official calls for distributing 'heavily concentrated' U.S. troop presence from Northeast Asia

Yonhap News Agency · by Oh Seok-min · September 1, 2020

So, where else will we station troops? But "strategic flexibility" with troops on the Korean peninsula is an important way ahead. It is unlikely we are going to be able to station troops in significant numbers (sufficient to serve US interests) in other locations throughout Asia.

 

12. Top N.K. officials, including nuclear missile development chief, visits typhoon-hit areas

Yonhap News Agency · by Koh Byung-joon · September 1, 2020

Top officials have multiple responsibilities. Ri Pyong-chol is vice chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers Party. I do not think his only responsibility is overseeing the regime's nuclear program. The headline makes it seem (at least to me) that one of the actual senior scientists of leaders of the nuclear missile program was sent from his research facility to the typhoon hit areas. Ri is a party official who visited the area and, yes, he is also a party official with responsibility for oversight of the nuclear missile programs. But the headline would not have been as attention grabbing as "Party Official Visits Typhoon Hit Area."

 

13. Donations to UN relief fund for North falling well short of goal

Korea Joong Ang Daily · by Shim Kyu-Seok & Jeong Yong-Soo · September 1, 2020

There has long been donor fatigue with North Korea. This fact is especially true because the regime does not allow the necessary transparency to ensure aid is delivered to those actually in need. In addition, it is probably hard to raise funds for a pandemic when the North says there are no cases in the country.

 

14. South Korea charges intelligence officers with raping North Korean defector

Reuters · by Josh Smith, Hyonhee Shin, & Simon Cameron-Moore · September 1, 2020

This is just sickening. These escapees need to be protected even from those who should be protecting them. If found guilty, these two should be sent to a gulag in the North for life (yes, that is sarcasm, but there is no punishment strong enough in the South to undo this damage to the victim as well as to the trust of the entire escapee population - and future escapees).

 

15. America should double down, and not retreat, from its South Korean alliance

National Interest · by Welton Chang · August 31, 2020

Rather than double down I think we need to evolve and mature the alliance (but I think we mean the same thing). The alliance is in the US’s interest. And because it is based on shrewd interests, shared values, and shared strategy, we should sustain it and improve it. It requires sustained "tending" and not taking it for granted or neglecting it.

 

16. Joe Biden plans to freshen up Barack Obama's North Korea policy

National Interest · by Darcie Draudt · August 31, 2020

I think he will need to do more than freshen up old policy. Whether Trump or Biden is elected, we need to move our policy and strategy forward, making it broader and more aggressive and focusing on solving the Korea question.

 

17. Robert Gallucci: thinking through a new North Korea strategy for Joe Biden

National Interest · by Robert L. Gallucci · August 27, 2020

 

18. Does Kim Jong Un have a wife? What to know about Ri Sol-ju

New York Post · by Tamar Lapin · August 31, 2020

 

"History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illuminates reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity."

- Cicero

"History, although sometimes made up of the few acts of the great, is more often shaped by the many acts of the small."

- Mark Yost

"Most of us spend too much time on the last 24 hours, and too little on the last 6,000 years."

- Will Durant

9/1/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Tue, 09/01/2020 - 10:31am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. The few, the proud, the white: the Marine Corps balks at promoting generals of color

2. I was a U.S. diplomat. Customs and Border Protection only cared that I was black.

3. Soldier's 'vile' TikTok video about the Holocaust under investigation, Army says

4. America's little-known power play against China in Africa

5. The US and China are headed for competition but not a Cold War

6. These are all the major flashpoints between China and the U.S.

7. U.S. destroyer transits Taiwan strait for second time in August

8. New and old aircraft programs could get the ax as top U.S. Air Force general calls for a "ruthless prioritization" of its capabilities

9. The strategic implications of Chinese UAVs: insights from the Libyan conflict

10. US declassifies Taiwan security assurances

11. Close the Pentagon - it's too big of a target

12. A supercomputer analyzed Covid-19 - and an interesting new theory has emerged

13. Beijing's strategic ends: harmony through hierarchy and the end of choice

14. In China, the 'great firewall' is changing a generation

15. A call to action - enhancing our capabilities to counter cyber disinformation

16. The week QAnon became everyone's problem

17. The coming revolution in intelligence affairs

18. Secrets and lies: information warfare during the Cold War and today

19. China's war games raise fears for Taiwan's security

20. Bad cyber actors don't fear the law. We can change that.

 

1. The few, the proud, the white: the Marine Corps balks at promoting generals of color

New York Times · by Helene Cooper · August 31, 2020

What incredible timing with the promotion board coming up. It will forever taint the Colonel. If he is selected people will say the board was" forced" by this article. And, of course, if he is not selected (which in normal circumstances is likely for most all officers if you are on your fourth look), it will confirm the allegations against the Corps (though the data seems pretty cut and dried on the lack of Black general officers). I wondered who orchestrated this? It appears to be fellow Marines who served with him, under his command. I look at this possibly as an excellent PSYOP effort by those who are extremely loyal to the Colonel. I hope he is selected and I hope his selection is not tainted by this effort, but I fear it will be. If his Marines are willing to orchestrate this PSYOP effort out of loyalty to him, it sends a powerful message alone: the Colonel should continue to lead Marines. I am sure Helen Cooper (who won an award for her reporting on race relations in the military) probably connected with some of the Colonel's Marines and learned of this story. We should note the Colonel declined to be interviewed (we must give him the benefit of the doubt that he has nothing to do with this other than declining an interview). But, Ms Cooper most likely has learned a lot about the military and the promotion system and she (and her editors) probably understand the importance of timing for this article.

 

2. I was a U.S. diplomat. Customs and Border Protection only cared that I was black.

Politico · by Tianna Spears · August 30, 2020

A long read. A sad read. It is really unbelievable something like this could happen to an American, let alone a serving diplomat. I am sure people will read the CPB comments and reinforce their statements that the CPB officers were just doing their jobs. It certainly does not appear so from this story. Something does not smell right.

 

3. Soldier's 'vile' TikTok video about the Holocaust under investigation, Army says

Washington Post · by Alex Horton · August 30, 2020

Another black eye for the Army and the military. So, the question is how did this 2LT earn a commission to become an officer and a gentleman?

 

4. America's little-known power play against China in Africa

National Interest · by Seenaa Jimjimo · August 31, 2020

The subtitle says it all. We do not need to compete dollar for dollar. We need to unfailingly apply our values and principles. Foreign policy and strategy based on these is how we compete and win. 

 

5. The US and China are headed for competition but not a Cold War

Business Insider · by Rodger Baker · August 31, 2020

The emerging geographical perspective is still "slightly out of focus."

 

6. These are all the major flashpoints between China and the U.S.

Washington Post · by Bloomberg News · September 1, 2020

Here is the proverbial laundry list of issues.

 

7. U.S. destroyer transits Taiwan strait for second time in August

USNI News · by Mallory Shelbourne · August 31, 2020

 

8. New and old aircraft programs could get the ax as top U.S. Air Force general calls for a "ruthless prioritization" of its capabilities

Defense News · by Valerie Insinna · August 31, 2020

We need a greater sense of urgency.

 

9. The strategic implications of Chinese UAVs: insights from the Libyan conflict

Jamestown Foundation · by Ryan Oliver · August 31, 2020

 

10. US declassifies Taiwan security assurances

Financial Times · by Kathrin Hille, Demetri Sevastopulo, & Katrina Manson · August 31, 2020

I will leave this to the China experts, but this seems to be a significant development.

More information to be found in the documents themselves, via the American Institute in Taiwan.

 

11. Close the Pentagon - it's too big of a target

Defense News · by James Hasik · August 31, 2020

When I saw I thought it was the Opinion, the Duffleblog, or the Sacramento Bee.  It is not.

An interesting argument. But to take this argument to the local conclusion, anywhere we concentrate military capabilities (to include C2 functions) will be a target.

 

12. A supercomputer analyzed Covid-19 - and an interesting new theory has emerged

Elemental · by Thomas Smith · September 1, 2020

I have no medical or scientific expertise. But this is a fascinating read. If this hypothesis is proven, it seems like there are ways ahead to treat this.

 

13. Beijing's strategic ends: harmony through hierarchy and the end of choice

Strategy Bridge · by George Bartle · September 1, 2020

This should stimulate some discussion or at least provoke some thought.

 

14. In China, the 'great firewall' is changing a generation

Politico · by Yaqui Wang · September 1, 2020

 

15. A call to action - enhancing our capabilities to counter cyber disinformation

Real Clear Defense · by David R. Shedd & Barbara N. Stevens · August 28, 2020

 

16. The week QAnon became everyone's problem

Defense One · by Nicholas Grossman · August 31, 2020

Again, I find it incredible that anyone can believe this QAnon idiocy.

 

17. The coming revolution in intelligence affairs

Foreign Affairs · by Anthony Vinci · August 31, 2020

I recall that the Church Commission and DCI Stansfield Turner caused the shift of the focus of intelligence to a dependency on technological capabilities and away from human intelligence. I agree that AI and autonomous systems will have great application to intelligence collection and analysis, but there will always be the human element at the center – whether it is case officers in the field or the analysts interpreting the results of technical products and integrating it with human intelligence. We need to take advantage of every technological capability and innovation, but we cannot forget that "humans are more important than hardware" (a SOF truth which applies to much more than SOF).

 

18. Secrets and lies: information warfare during the Cold War and today

National Interest · by Milton Bearden · August 31, 2020

This is a war we have to fight. It is an integral part of Great Power Competition as well as the fight against revisionist, rogue powers and that against violent extremist organizations.

To borrow from Trotsky, "you may not be interested in (information) war, but it is interested in you."

And I must emphasize our collective responsibility as citizens to participate in this fight, as our National Security Strategy says:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

 

19. China's war games raise fears for Taiwan's security

Economist · by The Economist · August 30, 2020

I hope one phrase in the subtitle is right and one is wrong. In fact, for the second to be true, the first has to be wrong.

 

20. Bad cyber actors don't fear the law. We can change that.

Defense One · by Frank J. Cilluffo & Val Cofield · August 31, 2020

The authors say we need improved law enforcement as part of layered cyber deterrence.

 

"History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illuminates reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity."

- Cicero

"History, although sometimes made up of the few acts of the great, is more often shaped by the many acts of the small."

- Mark Yost

"Most of us spend too much time on the last 24 hours, and too little on the last 6,000 years."

- Will Durant

8/31/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Mon, 08/31/2020 - 10:34am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Czech Republic sends delegation to Taiwan, draws ire of China

2. China says Czech senate speaker will pay 'heavy price' for Taiwan visit

3. Vystrcil's Taiwan visit an opportunistic stunt: Global Times editorial - Global Times

4. Rubio says Congressional oversight of intelligence faces 'historic crisis' following DNI announcement

5. Rubio on Historic Challenges Facing Congressional Oversight of Intelligence Activities

6. Opinion | Coronavirus Winter Is Coming

7. Lost In Space: Why America Needs a New Defense Strategy

8.  Artificial Intelligence Is the Next Top Gun

9. Russian navy conducts major maneuvers near Alaska

10. As Trump shakes up the military footprint in Europe, the US and Russia are making moves in the high north

11. Wife of a senior US spy says he wanted to 'take me to the afterlife'

12. Trump lauds Abe as Japan's 'greatest prime minister' as bromance set to end

13. The limits of Zoom diplomacy in Asia

14. As Trump's popularity slips in latest Military Times poll, more troops say they'll vote for Biden

15. China wants to be a friend to the Pacific, but so far, it has failed to match Australia's COVID-19 response

16. COVID-19 and Economic Competition with China and Russia

17. Japan's Abe tells Trump strengthening of alliance will not change

18. China's Missile Volley Sparked by Cold-War-Throwback Spy Plane

 

1. Czech Republic sends delegation to Taiwan, draws ire of China

DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)

No doubt this draws China's ire as we will see in subsequent articles.

 

2.  China says Czech senate speaker will pay 'heavy price' for Taiwan visit

Reuters · by Ben Blanchard, Yew Lun Tian · August 31, 2020

 

3. Vystrcil's Taiwan visit an opportunistic stunt: Global Times editorial - Global Times

globaltimes.cn

From a CCP mouthpiece.

Now this is a real insult.  (note sarcasm as this is probably a typo but I cannot resist. ) Note also the dig at Washington buried in this piece.

 

4. Rubio says Congressional oversight of intelligence faces 'historic crisis' following DNI announcement

The Hill · by J. Edward Moreno · August 29, 2020

Strong words from the Senator.

 

5. Rubio on Historic Challenges Facing Congressional Oversight of Intelligence Activities

rubio.senate.gov · by Aug 29 2020

Link above to the Senator's complete statement from his web site.

 

6. Opinion | Coronavirus Winter Is Coming

The New York Times · by Spencer Bokat-Lindell · August 27, 2020

An ominous warning. But with some practical advice.  We will heed it?

 

7. Lost In Space: Why America Needs a New Defense Strategy

The National Interest · by Peter Garretson · August 30, 2020

A very interesting analysis here:

 

8. Artificial Intelligence Is the Next Top Gun

Bloomberg · by James Stavridis · August 29, 2020

But is the "dogfight" the right simulation for air power today?  As we listen to some real pilots they remind us that if you get into a dogfight with an F-35 or F-22 you are doing it wrong.  Is "dogfighting" the pacing concept we should be using?

 

9. Russian navy conducts major maneuvers near Alaska

militarytimes.com · by Vladimir Isachenkov· August 30, 2020

 

10. As Trump shakes up the military footprint in Europe, the US and Russia are making moves in the high north

Business Insider · by Christopher Woody

 

11.  Wife of a senior US spy says he wanted to 'take me to the afterlife'

Daily Mail · by Harriet Alexander · August 30, 2020

I wonder about the "rest of the story" here.

Excerpts:

“Corcoran said that her new husband was suffering from PTSD following a lengthy CIA career.”

“Following the report, the NIC drafted a memo, which quickly leaked, claiming that the intelligence about the bounties was inconclusive.”

“The memo did not mention that the NIC's top analyst on military affairs and Taliban expert had killed himself days earlier.”

 

12. Trump lauds Abe as Japan's 'greatest prime minister' as bromance set to end

japantimes.co.jp · by Jesse Johnson · August 31, 2020

37 phone calls. 

Excerpts:

“In their Monday morning phone call - the pair's 37th - Abe said Japan would continue working to develop new national security policies, with the missile threat from North Korea, and implicitly China, in mind, while further deepening cooperation with the United States, according to a Japanese government official who was listening in.”

“Abe said during the news conference on Friday that his administration had convened a National Security Council meeting for Wednesday to discuss specific new defense policies. Those include a proposal from a group of ruling party lawmakers urging the NSC to consider acquiring the capability to defeat missiles even when in enemy territory. The government is due to reveal a new policy on missile defense in September.”

 

13. The limits of Zoom diplomacy in Asia

lowyinstitute.org · by Ben Bland

A view from Australia.  A call for a return face to face in person diplomacy.

 But there is a new normal and unfortunately Zoom is a part of it.  Surely someone could develop a more secure (but still very user friendly) platform, one that does not provide data back to servers in China.

Excerpts:

“However, there are doubts about the security of these online platforms. There is no personal touch. And the staid nature of video conferencing leaves no room for the sort of impromptu, sideline conversations where much of the real confidence-building and negotiation happens during summits and trips.”

“The priority of protecting the public from the pandemic is understandable. Nevertheless, the broader battle for influence in Asia has moved outside the Zoom waiting room to the echoing corridors of the world's foreign ministries, presidential palaces and prime ministerial suites.”

 

14. As Trump's popularity slips in latest Military Times poll, more troops say they'll vote for Biden

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · August 28, 2020

I wonder what impact this will have on civil military relations and trust in the military.  I know it is apples and oranges but how does this compare to retired general officers speaking out about politics?  My anecdotal "evidence" informs me there is a difference between the active duty force and the retirement community.  What I see on social media (anecdotal yes) is a lot more support for Trump than for Biden.

But the question is should we be doing these kinds of surveys? I know there is no way to prevent organizations from taking them or from service members from participating.  But is this interpreted as the military putting its finger on the scale?  How will people be influenced (or not) by these survey results?

 

15. China wants to be a friend to the Pacific, but so far, it has failed to match Australia's COVID-19 response

theconversation.com · by Ian Kemish · August 30, 2020

Australia punching above its weight.

 

16.  COVID-19 and Economic Competition with China and Russia

warontherocks.com · by Howard J. Shatz · August 31, 2020

Sobering assessment:

However, Russia's foreign military interventions are likely to continue. These interventions tend to be low cost and high priority for the Kremlin's foreign policy, although popular support for the wars in eastern Ukraine and Syria has declined. Likewise, information operations and interference in U.S. and other foreign elections are low-cost and likely to continue. Following the disputed elections in Belarus in early August and subsequent violenceconcerns about Russian intervention have emerged. Accordingly, Russia will remain a security challenge. Moscow is taking risks with its harassment of U.S. warships or aircraft. If incidents were to cause U.S. casualties, Congress could respond with more sanctions.

Finally, there are implications for both Russia and China together, with Russia continuing or even quickening its turn toward China. Accelerated by the 2014 sanctions, the two countries have drawn closer and upgraded their relations to a "comprehensive strategic partnership for a new era." Tangible aspects include the new Power of Siberia gas pipeline and plans to vastly increase Russia's energy export capacity to China. As long as Russia remains at odds with the West, a longer and steeper Russian downturn could create greater incentives for Russia to draw closer to China as a market and source of investment. Furthermore, either Russia's own policy of increasing isolation from the West, or an increase in the benefits it reaps from working with China, could disincentivize Russia from resolving its disagreements with the West to get sanctions lifted. That, in turn, may hamper Russia's ability to get much-needed Western investment and technology, potentially further stunting its growth over the long term - but not reducing it as a near-term challenge.

 

17. Japan's Abe tells Trump strengthening of alliance will not change

Reuters · by Kiyoshi Takenaka, Daniel Leussink, David Dolan and Jeff Mason · August 31, 2020

I hope he is right.

 

18.  China's Missile Volley Sparked by Cold-War-Throwback Spy Plane

Bloomberg · by Anthony Capaccio · August 29, 2020

 

------------------

 

“One man with courage makes a majority.”

- Andrew Jackson

 

Abraham Lincoln, 1854, on a political opponent who made false claims:

“To deny these things... puts an end to all argument. If a man will stand up and assert, and repeat, and re-assert, that two and two do not make four, I know nothing in the power of argument that can stop him.”

 

“Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms. It's by talking nonsense that one gets to the truth! I talk nonsense, therefore I'm human”

- Fyodor Dostoevsky, Notes from Underground, White Nights, The Dream of a Ridiculous Man, and Selections from The House of the Dead