Small Wars Journal

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8/31/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Mon, 08/31/2020 - 10:11am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. New vice FM stresses 'transparent' communication in first talks with U.S. ambassador

2. 4 Koreans killed in car crash with US armored vehicle

3. Kim Jong-un's Sister Orchestrates Pyongyang Lockdown

4. Korea Skips Defense Talks with U.S., Japan

5. Kim Jong-un did not delegate power: Ex-US commander

6. Concerns rise over sidelining of Korea in regional issues

7. Moon Is Steering the Country out to Sea

8. North Korea's unprecedented TV move

9. South Korea Goes Back into Lockdown

10. North Korea claims the U.S. is the cyber bank robber

11. Ruckus rises over fake encrypted spy message on YouTube

12. Assessing the U.S. Shift to Great Power Competition and the Risk from North Korea

13. Soldiers in Unpa County are stealing and looting from locals

14. Top Air Force general tapped as new Joint Chiefs chair (South Korea)

15. N. Korean authorities arrest food seasonings wholesaler

16. Don't Look To Joe Biden For A Breakthrough With North Korea

17. [Heroes from afar] Red Cross oversaw treatment of Korean War prisoners

18. Explainer | Kim Jong-un: What is going on with North Korea’s leader?

19. North Korea mystery: Kim Jong-un plots to unveil 'top-secret weapon' at Pyongyang parade

20. North Korea Plays The I Dare You Game – OpEd

 

1. New vice FM stresses 'transparent' communication in first talks with U.S. ambassador

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · August 31, 2020

He says the right words, especially about the alliance, but given his past writings and remarks and the nature of the Moon administration reading between the lines gives me pause.

 

2. 4 Koreans killed in car crash with US armored vehicle

The Korea Times · August 31, 2020

Another tragedy.  I spent a lot of time in that area in the 1980's and we drove down Highway 3 a year ago. It was amazing to see how developed and congested the area had become (but not surprising).

 

3. Kim Jong-un's Sister Orchestrates Pyongyang Lockdown

english.chosun.com· August 31, 2020

I am afraid it is only a matter of time before we learn of a real outbreak in the north.

(Note some information based on VOA reporting).

 

4. Korea Skips Defense Talks with U.S., Japan

english.chosun.com· August 31, 2020

 

5. Kim Jong-un did not delegate power: Ex-US commander

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · August 31, 2020

I think General Brooks believes (as do I) the system in north Korea is based on one man (or woman) rule.  It is not designed for power sharing.  Quote: Brooks told Voice of America on Saturday that the North has seen changes in leadership roles -- for example, Kim Yo-jong’s elevated status. But rather than a sign of power sharing, he said, the shakeup instead signals to trusted aides that the 36-year-old leader is taking on senior-level responsibilities."

But this comment from a South Korea legislator is troubling: "Ruling party Rep. Song Young-gil, who chairs the South Korean parliament’s Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, said earlier that the command, led by an American general, was legally unsound and “illegitimate” in its founding so it should be kept in check to prevent it from interfering with inter-Korean affairs."  To say the "founding" of the UNC is illegitimate is to deny UN Security Council Resolutions 82-85 which recognized north Korea as the aggressor, called on member nations to come to the defense of the South's freedom, and established the UN Command as the mechanism for integrating those member nations' military forces, and designated the US as the executive agent for the UNC.  Frankly speaking Rep. Song's view is right in line with north Korea's. It is almost as if he is repeating a north Korean talking point.

(Note also information in this report is also based on VOA reporting).

 

6. Concerns rise over sidelining of Korea in regional issues

The Korea Times · by Do Je-hae · August 31, 2020

I am concerned.  I think we should all be concerned. This is an "own goal" or self inflicted wound.

 

7. Moon Is Steering the Country out to Sea

english.chosun.com

The Chosun Ilbo editorial board is concerned and critical of the Moon Administration's direction.  It criticizes recent decisions as well as the ROK military leadership.

 

8. North Korea's unprecedented TV move

nzherald.co.nz

Breaking news above the supreme leader.

 

9. South Korea Goes Back into Lockdown

english.chosun.com· August 31, 2020


10. North Korea claims the U.S. is the cyber bank robber

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· Shim Kyu-Seok

Typical north Korean response.  Admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations.

 

11. Ruckus rises over fake encrypted spy message on YouTube

The Korea Times · August 31, 2020

I am not sure I would describe this as ruckus.

 

12. Assessing the U.S. Shift to Great Power Competition and the Risk from North Korea

divergentoptions.org · by Richard McManamon · August 31, 2020

I am not sure I would characterize US policy as a lessened focus on north Korea.  I do not think we necessarily deprioritized it.  What is interesting about north Korea is that it is very much intertwined with the revisionist powers (China and Russia) and the other rogue power (Iran) and some of its military equipment does get to violent extremists organizations at least indirectly (SCUDs in Yemen).   Although we do seem to prioritize the revision powers first with the rogue powers second and VEOs third I do not think you can completely separate them into their own categories. They are all interrelated.

Re this excerpt: "President Trump has successfully communicated with Kim in the past by leveraging his attributes and finding common ground with the North Korean leader. While the complete dismantling of North Korea’s rocket and nuclear program may no longer be feasible, the U.S. can reestablish meaningful diplomatic relations with North Korea to influence Northern peninsula. This is not to suggest that if the U.S. were to extend an olive branch that North Korean missiles would be instantly dismantled. However, progress with North Korea can likely be increased through human interaction and an emotional connection versus harsher sanctions that may harm the population more than the senior leaders of the country." First, I am all for all contact with north Korea but it is the Kim family regime that prevents the re-establishment of meaningful diplomatic relations (I assume the author does not mean diplomatic recognition) that include substantive working level talks.  I also worry that "olive branches" may imply concessions such as lifting sanctions which will be a Kim win and only lead to further blackmail diplomacy.

 

13. Soldiers in Unpa County are stealing and looting from locals

dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · August 31, 2020

Corruption in the nKPA.  More indications of problems within the military.  At least they have their priorities right: bread, alcohol, and cigarettes. 

 

14. Top Air Force general tapped as new Joint Chiefs chair

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok

Army as MINDEF and Air Force as CJCS.

 

15. N. Korean authorities arrest food seasonings wholesaler

dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin· August 31, 2020

Wasn't saccharine banned in the US in the 1980s?

 

16. Don't Look To Joe Biden For A Breakthrough With North Korea

The National Interest · by Denny Roy · August 30, 2020

The fact is no president can achieve a breakthrough as long as the Kim family regime remains in power.  There will be no breakthrough until te Korea question is resolved.

 

17. [Heroes from afar] Red Cross oversaw treatment of Korean War prisoners

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Esther Chung

Interesting Korean War history.

 

18.  Explainer |  Kim Jong-un: What is going on with North Korea’s leader?

SCMP · by John Power and Maria Siow· August 31, 2020

A relatively long piece that covers a lot of ground in north Korea.

 

19. North Korea mystery: Kim Jong-un plots to unveil 'top-secret weapon' at Pyongyang parade

express.co.uk· by Oli Smith

That would be the best time for us to see the "Juche Bird."  But will it fly or just be in the parade?

 

 20. North Korea Plays The I Dare You Game - OpEd

eurasiareview.com · by Felix Imonti* · August 31, 2020

What?  There is this conclusion.  I just cannot grasp the author's rationale here.  Bypass "American sanction?"  No retaliation from the UN Security Council?  I do not think the author understands the impact of US law and what will happen to entities that defy sanctions.  This is very dangerous advice.

 

-------

 

“One man with courage makes a majority.”

- Andrew Jackson

 

Abraham Lincoln, 1854, on a political opponent who made false claims:

“To deny these things... puts an end to all argument. If a man will stand up and assert, and repeat, and re-assert, that two and two do not make four, I know nothing in the power of argument that can stop him.”

 

“Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms. It's by talking nonsense that one gets to the truth! I talk nonsense, therefore I'm human”

- Fyodor Dostoevsky, Notes from Underground, White Nights, The Dream of a Ridiculous Man, and Selections from The House of the Dead

 

 

8/30/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Sun, 08/30/2020 - 5:30pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. READ: Congressional intel committees will no longer receive full briefings on election security

2. Submarine scare off Alaska may have been U.S. Navy, not Russian

3. ‘A hail Mary’: psychedelic therapy draws veterans to jungle retreats

4. French military officer investigated over suspected security breach

5. C.I.A. uncensors memoir of F.B.I. agent who protested torture of terrorists

6. Elon Musk unveils brain chip implant: 'It's like a Fitbit in your skull'

7. Remarks of Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey A. Rosen on malign foreign influence in U.S. elections

8. US officials: no signs of foreign targeting of mail-in vote

9. Twitter’s algorithm does not seem to silence conservatives

10. In Syria, the Pentagon got a real taste of Russian information warfare

11. Why the CyberLEAP act must pass

12. Deepfakes very convincing, effective in influencing people, Amsterdam researchers found

13. Trump’s international economic legacy

14. China's Wang Yi tells other countries not to interfere in Chinese internal affairs

15. America can build peace better - if it includes women.

16. Joint maritime operations: Green Berets train in California

17. We ran our online election disinformation simulation game and there's plenty to be worried about

18. For some military veterans, QAnon conspiracies offer comfort and belonging

19. Comfortably numb

 

1. READ: Congressional intel committees will no longer receive full briefings on election security

The Hill · by The Hill Staff · August 29, 2020

The letter is here.

I am always amused by those who say the US is a republic and not a democracy (I think we are a federal democratic republic). But, those who say we are a republic and not a democracy should be reminded that some of the core principles of a republican system of government is the separation of powers and a system of checks and balances to ensure that the power of the government does not reside in one branch of government. This action seems to me to be an affront to checks and balances.

That said, a question: will the provision of "intelligence products" versus "intelligence briefings" prevent leaks and prevent the politicization of intelligence? 

I assume that while the Congress may not be able to compel "briefings," they can in fact compel testimony from the leaders of the intelligence community. 

 

2. Submarine scare off Alaska may have been U.S. Navy, not Russian

Forbes · by H I Sutton · August 30, 2020

I guess I am glad we did not initiate any defensive action against the submarine. But on a serious note, I imagine submarine analysis is damn hard.

 

3. ‘A hail Mary’: psychedelic therapy draws veterans to jungle retreats

New York Times · by Ernesto Londoño · August 30, 2020

Troubling perhaps. I think this is one indicator there are a lot of people who are not getting the mental health care they need or that the care they do receive is insufficient. I do fear some people may think psychedelic drugs are some kind of silver bullet.

 

4. French military officer investigated over suspected security breach

Reuters · by Maya Nikolaeva, Gwenaelle Barzic; William Maclean, & Pravin Char · August 30, 2020

My first thought as I learn of Russian recruiting efforts is that they must be doing pretty well (e.g., the recent US SF captain and now this French officer). My thought is that we hear about Russian efforts, but not much about US or western efforts against Russia. I hope that means we are doing better than the Russians and our assets are not getting compromised. I really wonder what is the score of "spy vs. spy."  Then I think about the Chinese and how our network was rolled up in China a few years back and I get really depressed.

 

5. C.I.A. uncensors memoir of F.B.I. agent who protested torture of terrorists

New York Times · by Charlie Savage & Carol Rosenberg · August 29, 2020

A long time coming. The comparisons are interesting.  You can view the PDF with side by side page comparisons here.

As I look through the comparisons, it is hard for me to understand the logic for all the redactions. I think some areas are likely valid as they may have exposed some once classified information, but some of the redactions do not make sense to me. I think this document may be studied in graduate schools and intelligence programs for some years to come.

 

6. Elon Musk unveils brain chip implant: 'It's like a Fitbit in your skull'

ABC News · by Erin Schumaker · August 29, 2020

It is a brave new world.  And the chip will connect to a store of information on servers in China (note sarcasm).

 

7. Remarks of Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey A. Rosen on malign foreign influence in U.S. elections

US Department of Justice · by Jerffrey A. Rosen · August 26, 2020

 

8. US officials: No signs of foreign targeting of mail-in vote

AP · by Eric Tucker & Christina A. Cassidy · August 26, 2020

 

9. Twitter’s algorithm does not seem to silence conservatives

Economist · by Economist · August 1, 2020

An interesting experiment. Of course, this will not convince those who believe otherwise. It is the subtitle that illustrates the real problem.

 

10. In Syria, the Pentagon got a real taste of Russian information warfare

National Interest · by Kris Osborn · August 29, 2020

 

11. Why the CyberLEAP act must pass

Venture Beat · by David Brumley · August 29, 2020

I forget that the real acronym masters are in Congress not the military. Congressional staffers are quite brilliant at coming up with names of bills that can be transformed into acronyms. This is an excellent example.

 

12. Deepfakes very convincing, effective in influencing people, Amsterdam researchers found

NL Times · by Janene Peters · August 24, 2020

 

13. Trump’s international economic legacy

Project Syndicate · by Jean Pisani-Ferry · August 27, 2020

This is an interesting critique and certainly not one I expected based on the title and the usual criticism of Trump.

 

14. China's Wang Yi tells other countries not to interfere in Chinese internal affairs

Reuters · by John Irish, Maya Nikoleava, & William Maclean · August 30, 2020

Okay. Does the China and the CCP pledge not to interfere in the internal politics of other countries? I think he doth protest too much.

 

15. America can build peace better - if it includes women.

United States Institute of Peace · by Amanda Long & Kathleen Kuehnast · August 19, 2020

Blessed are the peacemakers.

 

16. Joint maritime operations: Green Berets train in California

Fort Carson Mountaineer · by Public Affairs Office · August 29, 2020

 

17. We ran our online election disinformation simulation game and there's plenty to be worried about

TechDirt · by Mike Masnick · August 27, 2020

It takes a critically thinking electorate to defend against this threat.

 

18.  For some military veterans, QAnon conspiracies offer comfort and belonging

ConnectingVets.com · by Jack Murphy · August 28, 2020

This is truly a sad situation. I hope all the veterans I know will shun QAnon and its idiotic, but apparently enticing and dangerous, messages.

 

19. Comfortably Numb

Claremont Review of Books · by Charles Murray · Summer 2020

An interesting book review. This is a powerful conclusion that we should reflect upon. Where is our civic virtue these days?

 

""Divisions...under my command...fought on a front of seven hundred miles, in four groups, separated by great distances, with no lateral communications between them and beyond tactical support of one another.... Commanders at all levels had to act more on their own; they were given greater latitude to work out their own plans to achieve what they knew was the Army Commander's intention. In time they developed to a marked degree a flexibility of mind and a firmness of decision that enabled them to act swiftly to take advantage of sudden information of changing circumstances without reference to their superiors.... This acting without orders, in anticipation of orders, or without waiting for approval, yet always within the overall intention, must become second nature in any form of warfare."

- Field Marshall (British Army) William Slim, Defeat Into Victory

"The staff knew so much of war than I did that they refused to learn from me of the strange conditions in which Arab irregulars had to act; and I could not be bothered to set kindergarten for their benefit."

-   T.E. Lawrence

"Never esteem anything as of advantage to you that will make you break your word or lose your self-respect."

- Marcus Aurelius

8/30/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Sun, 08/30/2020 - 4:46pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. New virus cases below 300 as social distancing toughened in greater Seoul

2. Seoul ‘shuts down’ in bid to blunt COVID-19

3. Defense ministry extends restrictions on troop vacation amid fight (South Korea)

4. Ex-minister Kang Kum-Sil envisions peace and life at DMZ

5. N.Korean border guards 'under shoot-to-kill orders' (report based on RFA reporting)

6. Continuity or reset? China and South Korea face a post-Abe Japan

7. South Korea's ruling party picks ex-prime minister as possible Moon successor

8. In North Korea, Joe Biden will seek change, not photo ops

9. Why South Korea would celebrate a Joe Biden win. What about North Korea?

10. China will look to take advantage of Joe Biden's North Korea policy

11. North Korea's Kim Jong-Un is eager to engage. Is Joe Biden?

12. Pyongyang ‘sends spy messages through YouTube for first time’, South Korea’s media rushes to report - but there’s a caveat

13. U.N. North Korea investigator: Seoul's singling out of defectors a mistake

14. To solve North Korea, Joe Biden must learn a lesson from Donald Trump

15. U.S. issues warning on North Korean hackers targeting banks worldwide

16. The U.S. is taking its crypto back from North Korea

17. Disappearance of Kim Jong-Un’s sister ominous sign of brutal Pyongyang power play

18. North Korea to create 'terror' with Juche Bird launch after coronavirus delay

 

1. New virus cases below 300 as social distancing toughened in greater Seoul

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · August 30, 2020

 

2. Seoul ‘shuts down’ in bid to blunt COVID-19

Korea Herald · by Kim Arin · August 30, 2020

 

3. Defense ministry extends restrictions on troop vacation amid fight (South Korea)

Korea Herald · by Yonhap · August 30, 2020

 

4.  Ex-minister Kang Kum-Sil envisions peace and life at DMZ

Korea Herald · by Kim Hae-yeon · August 30, 2020

There is a tremendous amount of life in the DMZ. However, the DMZ will never be 100% safe for unlimited human use. The number of unaccounted-for mines that have shifted over the years due to the monsoon floods and other environmental conditions means that no one can ever guarantee the DMZ will be cleared for safe use. Yes, parts of it can–and much of the DMZ should—be preserved as natural habitats to allow animals and plants to flourish as they currently do. However, I think it would be irresponsible to ever declare the DMZ completely open and safe for public use. The bulk of the DMZ should be sustained as a nature preserve.

 

5. N.Korean border guards 'under shoot-to-kill orders' (report based on RFA reporting)

Chosun Ilbo · by Chosun Ilbo · August 28, 2020

Just as an aside: this report in the Korean press would likely not be possible without Radio Free Asia (and others that are dependent on Voice of America). Journalists from RFA and VOA have contacts inside North Korea. Their news reports provide information not only to the Korean people in the North (who are not allowed to hear their own news because it is regulated by the regime's Propaganda and Agitation Department); they also provide news and information that is used by the South Korean, US, and international mainstream media. The Koreans services of RFA and VOA punch well above their weight, contributing significantly (though indirectly) to information and influence activities simply by executing their mission: to report the news from the target area back to the target area and to report news from the US and international community to the target area and the region.

 

6. Continuity or reset? China and South Korea face a post-Abe Japan

Nikkei Asian Review · by Tsukasa Hadano & Yosuke Onchi · August 30, 2020

What happens in Japan could have a significant impact on Korea and, thus, the US. We should expect a lot of speculation in the coming days.

 

7. South Korea's ruling party picks ex-prime minister as possible Moon successor

Herald-Mail Media · by Jeong-Ho Lee Bloomberg · August 29, 2020

And I guess it is not too early to be speculating about South Korean presidential politics.

 

8. In North Korea, Joe Biden will seek change, not photo ops

National Interest · by Robert King · August 29, 2020

I get that the National Interest is running this "what if" series to examine what Biden's policies might be toward North Korea. But, it seems like a little bit of counting chickens before they hatch (though a number of their articles have been written from the prospective what if either candidate wins and comparing and contrasting what policies each might implement).

When I saw the title, my subconscious immediately read "regime change." However, I do not think that is what Ambassador King has in mind (and, if he does, it is not something he would express in public… although I cannot speak for the Ambassador, I would guess that he is in favor of unification under a United Republic of Korea, which would require not regime change but simply the regime going away!).

 

9. Why South Korea would celebrate a Joe Biden win. What about North Korea?

National Interest · by Ramon Pacheco Pardo · August 29, 2020

If Biden wins, North Korea will have lost its best chance of ever getting a deal. He needs both Trump and Moon to get a deal and both are most likely to make one. But Kim has squandered his chances. On the other hand, to get a deal with both Moon and Trump would require significant compromise by the regime because, despite both seeming that they want it more than Kim, they (and Biden) are not likely to fall into the traps of the past where the North gets much for very little or nothing. The North will (and must) be required to make substantial concessions in terms of declarations, dismantling, and inspections, which it has never agreed to before. That sums up the essence of the problem: Kim will not allow substantive working-level talks that lead to a real process, which requires transparency in the form of intrusive activity. Kim is just not going to agree to that. Which is why we need a strategy beyond the nuclear crisis that focuses on resolving the "Korea question."

 

10. China will look to take advantage of Joe Biden's North Korea policy

National Interest · by Patricia Schouker · August 30, 2020

 

Yes, there are still many who think we should pressure China to solve the North Korean problem, but I think that most realize that North Korea is a pawn to China in Great Power Competition, and that realization should help either man as president to (hopefully) prevent being "played" by China (and North Korea). They may appear to but neither candidate is likely to fall for China's subversive activities toward North Korea.

 

11. North Korea's Kim Jong-Un is eager to engage. Is Joe Biden?

National Interest · by Seong-ho Sheen · August 29, 2020

One thing I think we should all agree on is that President Trump has broken a number of taboos when it comes to North Korea. Whether you think that is good or bad, his efforts may provide future presidents (or himself, if he is re-elected) with the ability to be more flexible (but please note that I do not define being more flexible as giving into to demands for concessions in which Kim gets something for nothing).  But, President Trump or a successor can be more creative because of the unconventional, experimental, top down, pen pal diplomacy of the past 3 years. However, whether any of the most creative strategies might work is dependent on Kim Jong-Un. Of course, if we go for a strategy that looks beyond Kim Jong-Un and works to resolve the Korea question, then that same creativity will be useful as well.

 

12. Pyongyang ‘sends spy messages through YouTube for first time’, South Korea’s media rushes to report - but there’s a caveat

RT · by RT · August 30, 2020

A bigger caveat: this is from Russia's RT. 

But if I were advising North Korea and the regime wanted to do this, I might recommend exactly this and make it seem like this is some "station" in Mexico. Analysis such as Martyn Williams' below would be exactly what I would want. Then again, if I were advising the regime, I might recommend just doing something obvious like this to get people talking and focusing on the wrong thing while I use a different means of communication. As some famous general said, all warfare is based on deception.

 

13. U.N. North Korea investigator: Seoul's singling out of defectors a mistake

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · August 28, 2020

This is a troubling statement about our linchpin and cornerstone allies.

 

14. To solve North Korea, Joe Biden must learn a lesson from Donald Trump

National Interest · by Mitchell Lerner · August 30, 2020

Whomever wins in November needs a long-term strategy that goes beyond the nuclear crisis.

Here is one from 2019.

Here is one from 2004.

 

15. U.S. issues warning on North Korean hackers targeting banks worldwide

Lexology · by Lexology · August 28, 2020

Beware of North Korea cyber actions.

 

16. The U.S. is taking its crypto back from North Korea

Live Bitcoin News · by Nick Marinoff · August 29, 2020

Let's get more aggressive in the cyber domain. This is a small but good example of just one thing we need to be doing.

 

17. Disappearance of Kim Jong-un’s sister ominous sign of brutal Pyongyang power play

news.com.au · by Benedict Brook · August 30, 2020

Relatively long assessment of the Kim family regime's Game of Thrones (with juche characteristics of course).

 

18. North Korea to create 'terror' with Juche Bird launch after coronavirus delay

Daily Star · by Tom Towers · August 30, 2020

Ah... the Juche Bird.

I do pay attention to everything that Professor Sung-Yoon Lee says and writes about North Korea. There are few real experts on North Korea, but he is one of them.

My sense is whether a "juche bird" will be launched this fall will depend on how the October 10th military celebrations go (or do not go or do not go right).

 

""Divisions...under my command...fought on a front of seven hundred miles, in four groups, separated by great distances, with no lateral communications between them and beyond tactical support of one another.... Commanders at all levels had to act more on their own; they were given greater latitude to work out their own plans to achieve what they knew was the Army Commander's intention. In time they developed to a marked degree a flexibility of mind and a firmness of decision that enabled them to act swiftly to take advantage of sudden information of changing circumstances without reference to their superiors.... This acting without orders, in anticipation of orders, or without waiting for approval, yet always within the overall intention, must become second nature in any form of warfare."

- Field Marshall (British Army) William Slim, Defeat Into Victory

"The staff knew so much of war than I did that they refused to learn from me of the strange conditions in which Arab irregulars had to act; and I could not be bothered to set kindergarten for their benefit."

-   T.E. Lawrence

"Never esteem anything as of advantage to you that will make you break your word or lose your self-respect."

- Marcus Aurelius

08/29/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Sat, 08/29/2020 - 2:10pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. On the Issue of Chinese Malign Influence, Both Trump and Biden are Right

2. Is the CCP losing its 'Mandate of Heaven'?

3. How Great Power Competition and Regional Rivalries are Destabilizing the Red Sea Region

4. U.S. Cyber Command helps prosecutors seize stolen cryptocurrency traced to illicit N. Korea nuclear weapons program

5. Opinion | Shinzo Abe's resignation could deal a blow to Japan and U.S. interests alike

6. Army official: 2 soldiers killed, 3 hurt in 'routine training' incident

7. East Asia military balance at risk from new missiles and drones

8. A New Era of Coronavirus Testing Is About to Begin

9. What's Next for the U.S.-Japan 'Special Relationship'

10. Top general says no role for military in presidential vote

11. Philippine human rights workers are being systematically killed in a growing war on dissent

12. The Army Now Has the Most 4-Star Generals on Duty Since World War II

13.  Silver Stars awarded to two Green Berets and a pararescueman for close-quarters Taliban battle

14. Jolo back to normal, but braces for terrorist attacks, says mayor

15. How Many of Maria Ressa's Warnings Will We Ignore?

16. Pentagon poised to award Medal of Honor to Alwyn Cashe, who died after saving fellow soldiers in Iraq

17. Belarusian Officials Shut Down Internet With Technology Made by U.S. Firm

18. The Myth of SOF Leadership and the Need for Urgency | SOF News

19. Report - SOF Civil Affairs in Great Power Competition | SOF News

20. Leadership questions mount at GWU, where officials plan layoffs, salary cuts

21. Algorithms, AI alone can't help Facebook tackle online extremism. It needs people too

 

1. On the Issue of Chinese Malign Influence, Both Trump and Biden are Right

The National Interest · by Craig Singleton · August 27, 2020

From my FDD colleague Craig Singleton.  

A key point:

The Chinese influence machine does not just target America's media landscape. Arguably, its most successful efforts to shape the narrative around China involve co-opting prominent academics and influential members of the business community to advance the Party's objectives, often in exchange for financial remuneration or promises of market access. This tactic, known as "elite capture," is also a hallmark of Beijing's One Belt One Road initiative.

On the Issue of Chinese Malign Influence, Both Trump and Biden are Right

Washington must stay on guard and continue to counter China's influence operations no matter who wins.

 

2. Is the CCP losing its 'Mandate of Heaven'?

eastasiaforum.org · by Friso Stevens · August 28, 2020

A view of a Chinese apologist?

 

3. How Great Power Competition and Regional Rivalries are Destabilizing the Red Sea Region

The National Interest · by Yoel Guzansky · August 28, 2020

A view from Israel.

 

4. U.S. Cyber Command helps prosecutors seize stolen cryptocurrency traced to illicit N. Korea nuclear weapons program

The Washington Post· by Spencer S. Hsu · August 28, 2020

Good work by Cybercom.

 

5. Opinion | Shinzo Abe's resignation could deal a blow to Japan and U.S. interests alike

The Washington Post · by Editorial Board

Hopefully we can manage the relationship during and after the transition.

 

6. Army official: 2 soldiers killed, 3 hurt in 'routine training' incident

fox17online.com · by KGTV Staff · August 28, 2020

"Routine training" can be very dangerous. Training like this is always high risk but I suppose that is routine for 160th SOAR.

 

7. East Asia military balance at risk from new missiles and drones

asia.nikkei.com

The subtitle begs the question: Does conventional deterrence no longer work?

 

8. A New Era of Coronavirus Testing Is About to Begin

defenseone.com · by Alexis C. Madrigal

I hope this pans out.  We need massive rapid (and accurate and reliable) testing.

 

9. What's Next for the U.S.-Japan 'Special Relationship'

National Review Online · by Arthur L. Herman · August 27, 2020

We need to sustain our cornerstone alliance in Northeast Asia.

 

10. Top general says no role for military in presidential vote

AP · by Lolita C. Baldor · August 28, 2020

There is (or should be) no role for the US military in the political process.

 

11. Philippine human rights workers are being systematically killed in a growing war on dissent

Los Angeles Times · by David Pierson · August 27, 2020

Just a terrible situation.  Duterte needs international condemnation and pressure.

 

12. The Army Now Has the Most 4-Star Generals on Duty Since World War II

military.com · by Matthew Cox · August 28, 2020

The article does not mention General Abrams in Korea or General Clarke at USSOCOM.

 

13. Silver Stars awarded to two Green Berets and a pararescueman for close-quarters Taliban battle

Stars and Stripes· by Chad Garland · August 27, 2020

We may have a lot of Army 4 star generals, but these are the men (of the Army and the AirForce) at the top of the spear.

 

14. Jolo back to normal, but braces for terrorist attacks, says mayor

manilastandard.net· by Macon Ramos-Araneta

 

15.  How Many of Maria Ressa's Warnings Will We Ignore?

Wired · by Steven Levy

We need to pay attention to Maria Ressa (and we need to keep her out of jail in the Philippines).

 

16. Pentagon poised to award Medal of Honor to Alwyn Cashe, who died after saving fellow soldiers in Iraq

The Washington Post · by  Dan Lamothe · August 28, 2020

Finally.  This should not have taken this long.

 

17. Belarusian Officials Shut Down Internet With Technology Made by U.S. Firm

Bloomberg · by Ryan Gallagher · August 28, 2020

 

18. The Myth of SOF Leadership and the Need for Urgency | SOF News

sof.news · by Eliann Carr and David Hargett · August 29, 2020

 

19. Report - SOF Civil Affairs in Great Power Competition | SOF News

sof.news · by Travis Clemens · August 27, 2020

The two SOF trinities: irregular warfare, unconventional warfare and support of political warfare and the comparative advantage of SOF; governance, influence, and support to indigenous forces and populations.  Civil Affairs forces play a key role.

The report can be downloaded at this link.

 

20. Leadership questions mount at GWU, where officials plan layoffs, salary cuts

The Washington Post

Is GWU the canary in the coal mine?  Is our university system heading for a train wreck.? What kind of "forcing function" with the pandemic have on shaping the future of the college education system?

 

21. Algorithms, AI alone can't help Facebook tackle online extremism. It needs people too

theprint.in · August 28, 2020

 

----------------

 

My father was a soldier. He was a frogman in the special forces in Denmark before I was born, and always the reality of that inspired me. My mom is very left-wing, classic socialist, and she always talked about the solders as almost crazy, violent, sick people, and I want to confront that because its very judgmental, and I'm not sure it's true."

- Tobias Lindholm

 

"Huey Long once said, 'Fascism will come to America in the name of anti-fascism.' I'm afraid, based on my own experience, that will fascism will come to America in the name of national security."

- Jim Garrison (Playboy Interview, October, 1967)

 

“I am concerned for the security of our great Nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within."

- Douglas MacArthur

08/29/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Sat, 08/29/2020 - 11:23am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. As natural disasters strike, North Korea cuts itself off

2. N. Korea yet to face major outbreak but will need assistance: U.N. rapporteur

3.  Typhoon Maysak expected to affect S. Korea next week

4. Russian warplanes violate S. Korea's air defense zone again

5. N. Korea broadcasts encrypted spy message on YouTube for first time

6. N.K. broadcasts encrypted message on YouTube

7. North Korea Raised Tensions During the 2016 Elections. What About 2020?

8. We Interrupt this Propaganda…A Dynamic 24 Hours on North Korean TV

9. Trump, Biden and Korea | Opinion

10. Asia Today: Cases still rise in S.Korea, Malaysia stays shut

11. Kim Jong-un's sister disappears amid fears of huge power struggle in secretive North Korea

12. Demographic cliff in S. Korea is just around the corner

13. Who is Kim Jong Un’s older brother Kim Jong Chul, and could he be his successor?

14. Kim Jong Un said to be closely watching for who will replace Shinzo Abe

15. South Korea sect members donate blood for coronavirus research

16. Let the North Korean Labor Party buy stock of'Samsung Electronics'...

17. Review | A frustrating search for the truth about America’s biological warfare

 

1. As natural disasters strike, North Korea cuts itself off

The Economist · Aug 29th 2020

It is what the regime does.  Close off to the outside world in the face of crisis.  As I have said we could see a humanitarian disaster on a scale beyond the 1994-1996 Arduous March.

 

2. N. Korea yet to face major outbreak but will need assistance: U.N. rapporteur

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · August 29, 2020

The tragedy is coming if it is not already occurring.

 

3. Typhoon Maysak expected to affect S. Korea next week

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · August 29, 2020

It looks like north Korea will dodge this bullet.

 

4. Russian warplanes violate S. Korea's air defense zone again

en.yna.co.kr · by 황장진 · August 29, 2020

The Russians are at it again.  What are their intentions? Simply to cause instability in the region?  What is a maritime patrol aircraft patrolling for?

 

5. N. Korea broadcasts encrypted spy message on YouTube for first time

en.yna.co.kr · by 황장진 · August 29, 2020

Is anyone at YouTube paying attention?  A new form of the "spy numbers stations" via YouTube. Is the RGB entering the modern era (old concepts with new technology)? 

 

6. N.K. broadcasts encrypted message on YouTube

en.yna.co.kr

Not much of a screenshot but I see some 1s and 0s in the lower left corner.   I have checked out the Pyongyang Broadcast Service but I could not find any number broadcasts (I am not going to watch all those propaganda videos).  Also, note there some 41,000 subscribers to the YouTube channel

 

7. North Korea Raised Tensions During the 2016 Elections. What About 2020?

The National Interest · by Mark Episkopos · August 28, 2020

I hope Kim realizes that his actions will not change the votes of any American voters.  I am skeptical that he will conduct a provocation with the intent of trying to influence the election.  However, the potential severe internal conditions in the north could cause him to try to externalize the problems.  As I have said if the regime is unable to successfully execute the 10 OCT military celebration Kim may order a provocation in an attempt to "blame" the ROK and US for his failures.

 

8. We Interrupt this Propaganda…A Dynamic 24 Hours on North Korean TV

38 North· by Martyn Williams · August 28, 2020

I do not think there is anyone who tracks north Korean broadcast media (propaganda) more closely than Martyn Williams.  Some unusual reporting on (and by) north Korea. "breaking news" and on scene real time reporting is not normal.  I suppose the Propaganda and Agitation Department is trying to move into the modern era but it is obviously taking some risk as it cannot control the narrative as closely as deliberate in studio reporting.

 

9. Trump, Biden and Korea | Opinion

sun-sentinel.com · by Donald Kirk

From the always pithy Donald Kirk.  He provides some interesting political analysis.

 

10. Asia Today: Cases still rise in S.Korea, Malaysia stays shut

Toronto Star · by The Associated Press · August 29, 2020

 

11. Kim Jong-un's sister disappears amid fears of huge power struggle in secretive North Korea

Express · by Simon Osborne · August 28, 2020

More speculation. "Huge power struggle?". Kim yo-jong "disappears?"  I guess we should expect this from the sensational UK Express. But I always click on its clickbait.

 

12. Demographic cliff in S. Korea is just around the corner

donga.com · August 29, 2020

South Korea needs to build a large professional reserve force to mitigate the effects of the decline in military age personnel.

 

13. Who is Kim Jong Un’s older brother Kim Jong Chul, and could he be his successor?

New York Post · by Gabrielle Fonrouge · August 28, 2020

I seriously doubt he would be a successor.  Then again, you never know how the north Korea game of thrones will play out.  I wonder if we will ever see video of him playing his guitar(s).

 

14. Kim Jong Un said to be closely watching for who will replace Shinzo Abe

New York Post · by Lia Eustachewich · August 28, 2020

 

15. South Korea sect members donate blood for coronavirus research

straitstimes.com · August 29, 2020

Maybe some good will come of this.

 

16. Let the North Korean Labor Party buy stock of'Samsung Electronics'...

News Daily · August 28, 2020

This is a google translation of a Korean article.  This is an unbelievable proposal by the Ministry of Unification.  I cannot believe Minister Lee would think this is a good idea.

Excuse the translation but focus on the paragraph about Department 39 (Room, Office, Bureau):

 

“...but regulations such as permitting mutual investment between the two Koreas, installation of mutual offices, and permission to co-production of contents, which were as controversial as the liberalization of contact with North Korea, were announced as scheduled.

 Article 17-3 of the Inter-Korean Exchange and Cooperation Act'Economic Cooperation Project' stipulated that inter-Korean companies can jointly or independently engage in profit-making activities in South Korea, North Korea or a third country. It also included a plan to allow North Korean companies to invest in domestic stocks, bonds, real estate, and copyrights. In addition, the amendment has also included a regulation that allows companies and organizations in the South and North to establish offices on both sides.

As there is virtually no stock market, bond trading, or real estate ownership in North Korea, such investments are meant to allow the North Korean ruling power to invest directly in the country. In other words, a company affiliated with Labor Party Room 39, which raises the slush fund for the Kim family, can set up an office in Seoul to buy shares of Samsung Electronics, LG Chem, and SK Biopharm.”

 

17. Review | A frustrating search for the truth about America’s biological warfare

The Washington Post · by Mark Athitakis

Some controversial history from the Korean War and beyond.

 

-------------------

 

"My father was a soldier. He was a frogman in the special forces in Denmark before I was born, and always the reality of that inspired me. My mom is very left-wing, classic socialist, and she always talked about the solders as almost crazy, violent, sick people, and I want to confront that because its very judgmental, and I'm not sure it's true.”

- Tobias Lindholm

 

“Huey Long once said, ‘Fascism will come to America in the name of anti-fascism.’ I’m afraid, based on my own experience, that will fascism will come to America in the name of national security.”

- Jim Garrison (Playboy Interview, October, 1967)

 

I am concerned for the security of our great Nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within.”

- Douglas MacArthur

08/27/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Thu, 08/27/2020 - 12:31pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. Exclusive: Milley to sign new Unified Command Plan; Defines SPACECOM’s roles

2. Esper shares U.S. Vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Region

3. UN again calls for full ratification of nuclear test-ban treaty

4. The U.S. military has a plan to beat Russian, Chinese and Iranian missiles

5. U.S. 'won't cede an inch' in Pacific, Esper says in swipe at China

6. Sailor investigated for Arson after burning of Navy Warship

7. US 'walking on thin ice' with spy plane flight

8. US sanctions 24 Chinese companies over South China Sea island building

9. China tests long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles as U.S. spy plane watches it all

10. Latest variant of Patriot missile misfired in major test of command system

11. U.S. imposes restrictions on Certain PRC state-owned enterprises and executives for malign activities in the South China Sea

12. U.S. military presence needed in Asia, Philippines' foreign minister says

13. South China Sea: ‘If China attacks our navy, we’ll call the US’, Philippines says

14. The Philippines is now the online gaming capital of China

15. China’s checkmate: the technology weapon you didn’t see coming

16. CIA’s In-Q-Tel among backers of German satellite-thruster startup

17. Lack of U.S. warship repair capacity worrying Navy

18. Tibetan uncle and nephew arrested for urging resistance to Chinese land grab

19. Subtweets are partisan too: Why retired Generals can’t avoid the parties

 

1. Exclusive: Milley to sign new Unified Command Plan; Defines SPACECOM’s roles

breakingdefense.com · by Theresa Hitchens

2. Esper shares U.S. Vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Region

defense.gov · by JIM GARAMONE

We should not miss this point: "The Indo-Pacific is the main focus of American national strategy. The region is crucial to the U.S. economy, and U.S. service members are crucial to maintaining peace and stability in the region."

3. UN again calls for full ratification of nuclear test-ban treaty

news.un.org · August 26, 2020

4. The U.S. military has a plan to beat Russian, Chinese and Iranian missiles

The National Interest · by Kris Osborn · August 26, 2020

North Korea did not warrant inclusion in the headline and only in the subtitle. If KJU reads this, it may piss him off and he might want to show off his capabilities. 

5. U.S. 'won't cede an inch' in Pacific, Esper says in swipe at China

in.reuters.com · by Ben Blanchard

We need to take a good look at the Go (or wei chi or paduk) board.

6. Sailor investigated for Arson after burning of Navy Warship

The New York Times · by Eric Schmitt · August 26, 2020

I hope they find this person. I wonder if the Navy can bring back keelhauling or at least the lash. 

7. US 'walking on thin ice' with spy plane flight

chinadaily.com.cn · by 于小明

So is China going to stop its spying?

8. US sanctions 24 Chinese companies over South China Sea island building

CNN · by Nectar Gan

This seems to be a significant action. I received a briefing a couple of years back from a great organization (C4ADS) in which they showed the connectivity between companies conducting construction work on these islands with specific members of the politburo and ruling elite.

9. China tests long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles as U.S. spy plane watches it all

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · August 26, 2020

Signaling or a coincidence?  Will this lead to miscalculation?

10. Latest variant of Patriot missile misfired in major test of command system

Defense News · by Jen Judson · August 26, 2020

Do not be alarmed or misled by the headline. 

11. U.S. imposes restrictions on Certain PRC state-owned enterprises and executives for malign activities in the South China Sea

state.gov · by Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State

12. U.S. military presence needed in Asia, Philippines' foreign minister says

Reuters · August 26, 2020

Was he speaking for his president or his nation?

13. South China Sea: ‘If China attacks our navy, we’ll call the US’, Philippines says

scmp · by Alan Robles · August 26, 2020

Ha! Call the alliance 911 (the Mutual Defense Treaty).

14. The Philippines is now the online gaming capital of China

inkstonenews.com · by Eduardo Baptista

15. China’s checkmate: the technology weapon you didn’t see coming

Forbes · by Tatiana Koffman · August 26, 2020

I have no knowledge of this concept. But based solely on this article I think we must be concerned. I think the Go (wei chi or paduk) board must have a cyber and technology dimension.

16. CIA’s In-Q-Tel among backers of German satellite-thruster startup

defenseone.com · by Marcus Weisgerber

17. Lack of U.S. warship repair capacity worrying Navy

news.usni.org · by Megan Eckstein · August 26, 2020

Our failure to invest in logistics and support facilities will be an achilles heel. 

18. Tibetan uncle and nephew arrested for urging resistance to Chinese land grab

rfa.org

Resistance.  We should all be thinking about resistance that is taking place around the world. From the USASOC ARIS Project and the publication on The Science of Resistance:"

19. Subtweets are partisan too: Why retired Generals can’t avoid the parties

warontherocks.com · by Luke J. Schumacher · August 27, 2020

-----------

"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.

- Marcus Tullius Cicero"

 

"We don't rise to the level of our expectations, we fall to the level of our training."

- Archilochos

 

"Be selective about whom you take on as friends, colleagues, and neighbors. The world is full of agreeable and talented folk. The key is to keep company only with people who uplift you, whose presence calls forth your best. But remember that our moral influence is a two-way street, and we should thus make sure by our own thoughts, words, and deeds to be a positive influence on those we deal with. The real test of personal excellence lies in the attention we give to the often neglected small details of our conduct. Make it your business to draw out the best in others by being an exemplar yourself."

- Epictetus

 

 

 

08/27/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Thu, 08/27/2020 - 10:46am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. FASTCash 2.0: North Korea's BeagleBoyz Robbing Banks

2. U.S. warns of global bank heist campaign by North Korean hackers

3. US government exposes North Korean government ATM cashout hacking campaign

4. Typhoon Bavi approaches North Korea, posing another crisis for Kim Jong Un

5. Kim braces North Korea for typhoon that could wipe out crops

6. Who is Chang Song-min, the man behind the Kim Jong-un death rumors?

7. Kim’s younger sister climbs the despot’s ladder. @DavidMaxwell161, and @GordonGChang

8. How Kim Jong Un is confusing the world with contradictory signals

9.  North Korea and coronavirus: Hide-and-seek with the world

10. N.K.'s propaganda outlet slams defector-turned-lawmaker for opposing leafleting ban

11.  Gov't backs off on plan to ease rule on contact with N. Koreans

12. N. Korea's media report on broken trees, inundated streets as Typhoon Bavi makes landfall

13. Coronavirus Infections Rise to Fresh High (South Korea)

14. Baffling photo emerges after Kim Jong-Un’s rumored coma

15. U.S. continues to pursue complete, verifiable North Korea denuclearisation, says Esper

16. South Korea reports 441 new coronavirus cases, most since March

17. Feminine touch or iron first? What we know about Kim Yo-jong

18. Kim Jong-un's sister disappears from public view

19. My family’s shrouded history is also a national one for Korea

 

1. FASTCash 2.0: North Korea's BeagleBoyz Robbing Banks

us-cert.cisa.gov

My colleague, who is a north Korea cyber expert, says this is one of the best organized reports he has seen. There is certainly a lot of information and data in this. I don't need to state the obvious again, but we need to be very concerned with the entire spectrum of north Korean cyber activities.

2. U.S. warns of global bank heist campaign by North Korean hackers

WSJ · by Dustin Volz and Ian Talley · August 26, 2020

3. US government exposes North Korean government ATM cashout hacking campaign

cyberscoop.com · by Shannon Vavra · August 26, 2020

4. Typhoon Bavi approaches North Korea, posing another crisis for Kim Jong Un

The Washington Post · by Min Joo Kim · August 26, 2020

North Korea just cannot catch a break. I fear things are going to get real bad for a very long time for the Korean people living in the North.

5. Kim braces North Korea for typhoon that could wipe out crops

nationalpost.com · by Jeong-Ho Lee · August 26, 2020

With all that is happening inside North Korea I fear we could see a food crisis on the scale of the 1994-1996 famine this winter.

6. Who is Chang Song-min, the man behind the Kim Jong-un death rumors?

The National Interest · by Mitchell Blatt · August 26, 2020

He has created quite a firestorm. He will forever be known as the pundit (boy) who cried wolf. Hopefully the media will no longer listen to him.

7. Kim’s younger sister climbs the despot’s ladder. @DavidMaxwell161, and @GordonGChang

audioboom.com

My discussion with John Batchelor and Gordon Chang on Kim Yo-Jong.

8. How Kim Jong Un is confusing the world with contradictory signals

theprint.in · August 26, 2020

Kim is dealing with multiple crises while trying to protect himself from the coronavirus. Will he conduct another provocation before the election? It is of course always possible, but we need to ask what would he think he would achieve with some kind of provocation?

9.  North Korea and coronavirus: Hide-and-seek with the world

DW · by Deutsche Welle

Although I saw a report that some 2000 people were tested and they were all negative, it does not appear the regime is making strong denials of any outbreak in North. Perhaps that is because they admit to one case with the defector in Kaesong.

But I missed this report in June.

10. N.K.'s propaganda outlet slams defector-turned-lawmaker for opposing leafleting ban

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · August 27, 2020

Thae Young-ho is a threat to the North.

11.  Gov't backs off on plan to ease rule on contact with N. Koreans

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · August 27, 2020

The question is will North Korea be receptive to such engagement? I think not unless they find a way to extort these municipalities for large sums of money. I wonder if some think this might be some kind of process that will circumvent sanctions.

12. N. Korea's media report on broken trees, inundated streets as Typhoon Bavi makes landfall

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · August 27, 2020

Early reporting.

13. Coronavirus Infections Rise to Fresh High (South Korea)

english.chosun.com

14. Baffling photo emerges after Kim Jong-Un’s rumored coma

au.news.yahoo.com

I am not clear what is baffling about this photo unless it is the fact people thought he was incapacitated or dead.  

15. U.S. continues to pursue complete, verifiable North Korea denuclearisation, says Esper

Reuters · August 27, 2020

Consistent with SECSTATE's statement in his Congressional testimony on July 30.

16. South Korea reports 441 new coronavirus cases, most since March

straitstimes.com · August 27, 2020

17. Feminine touch or iron first? What we know about Kim Yo-jong

thenewdaily.com.au · by Samantha Dick Reporter · August 26, 2020

Not too much.

18. Kim Jong-un's sister disappears from public view

english.chosun.com · August 27, 2020

I guess we need to establish a Kim Yo-jong watch. It is August. Perhaps she is on holiday with her family.

19. My family’s shrouded history is also a national one for Korea

The New York Times · by Alexander Chee · August 27, 2020

This provides some insight into the lasting influence and impact of the Japanese occupation of Korea from 1910-1945.

-----------

"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.

- Marcus Tullius Cicero"

 

"We don't rise to the level of our expectations, we fall to the level of our training."

- Archilochos

 

"Be selective about whom you take on as friends, colleagues, and neighbors. The world is full of agreeable and talented folk. The key is to keep company only with people who uplift you, whose presence calls forth your best. But remember that our moral influence is a two-way street, and we should thus make sure by our own thoughts, words, and deeds to be a positive influence on those we deal with. The real test of personal excellence lies in the attention we give to the often neglected small details of our conduct. Make it your business to draw out the best in others by being an exemplar yourself."

- Epictetus

 

 

 

08/26/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Wed, 08/26/2020 - 12:22pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. Beijing protests alleged U.S. spy plane incursion during Chinese military drills

2. Chinese diplomats helped military scholars visiting the U.S. evade FBI scrutiny, U.S. says

3. Where the Pandemic Is Cover for Authoritarianism

4. FDD | Guam needs Aegis Ashore

5. US retreat from multilateralism blunts the fight against COVID-19

6. Army consolidating cyber operations forces

7. EMP weapons: How to beat the U.S. military in a war?

8. Reviving the Liberal World Order: An American Challenge

9. Needed: American Diplomacy, Defense, Democracy

10. Philippines won't cease Spratly patrols despite China call vs 'provocations': DFA

11. Can 'The Quad' work together to contain Chinese aggression?

12. Veterans Affairs has now reported more than 50,000 coronavirus cases

13. Rising military personnel costs may mean future cuts in troop numbers

14. Veterans see mail-in ballots as 'most sacred of the sacred'

15. Where does Biden stand on China and Taiwan?

16. Video - ARSOF and Great Power Competition | SOF News

17. US nuclear policy and posture: bending toward Asia?

18. The weird and eerie battlefields of tomorrow

19. Capt. Kirk to Space Force: Let's debate rank names

20. What the heck is wrong with you, Space Force?

 

1. Beijing protests alleged U.S. spy plane incursion during Chinese military drills

Los Angeles Times · by Associated Press · August 26, 2020

2. Chinese diplomats helped military scholars visiting the U.S. evade FBI scrutiny, U.S. says

WSJ · by Kate O'Keeffe and Aruna Viswanatha · August 25, 2020

I am sure the Houston consulate was not unique.

3. Where the Pandemic Is Cover for Authoritarianism

defenseone.com · by Timothy McLaughlin

When you think about it the pandemic really has been an "opportunity" for the countries discussed in the article and others as well to really crack down on their populations. Not mentioned is North Korea. Kim has really exploited the pandemic to impose even more draconian population and resources control measures than perhaps ever.

4. FDD | Guam needs Aegis Ashore

fdd.org · by Bradley Bowman and Maj. Shane Praiswater · August 25, 2020

5. US retreat from multilateralism blunts the fight against COVID-19

eastasiaforum.org · by David Lubin · August 26, 2020

The US has "lost interest" in the idea of multilateralism. The strength of the populism strain will work to prevent multi-lateral solutions. I fear that will come back to haunt us in the coming years.

6. Army consolidating cyber operations forces

nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Yasmin Tadjdeh

7. EMP weapons: How to beat the U.S. military in a war?

The National Interest · by David T. Pyne · August 25, 2020

And I do not think we have ever taken EMP weapons seriously.

8. Reviving the Liberal World Order: An American Challenge

realcleardefense.com · by Michael Miklaucic

Probably not in the near future.

9. Needed: American Diplomacy, Defense, Democracy

usni.org · by Ambassador Charles Ray and Vice Admiral Kevin Green, U.S. Navy (retired) · August 23, 2020

The 3Ds. Diplomacy, Development, and Defense. A lot of renewed calls for American leadership these days.

10. Philippines won't cease Spratly patrols despite China call vs 'provocations': DFA

news.abs-cbn.com · August 26, 2020

11. Can 'The Quad' work together to contain Chinese aggression?

thedispatch.com · by Joseph Hammond

Interesting comments here.

12. Veterans Affairs has now reported more than 50,000 coronavirus cases

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · August 25, 2020

13. Rising military personnel costs may mean future cuts in troop numbers

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · August 25, 2020

Some interesting assumptions noted by Todd Harrisson here.

14. Veterans see mail-in ballots as 'most sacred of the sacred'

expressnews.com · August 23, 2020

15. Where does Biden stand on China and Taiwan?

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco, opinion contributor · August 25, 2020

16. Video - ARSOF and Great Power Competition | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · August 25, 2020

The 21 minute video can be accessed on YouTube here.

17. US nuclear policy and posture: bending toward Asia?

The Korea Times · by Steven Andreasen · August 26, 2020

18. The weird and eerie battlefields of tomorrow

thestrategybridge.org · August 25, 2020

"The horror, the horror." Writing horror fiction will help military planning. I am reminded that Colonel Kurtz told us about the horror. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSWtc01BlqM

19. Capt. Kirk to Space Force: Let's debate rank names

Stars and Stripes· by Chad Garland · August 25, 2020

William Shatner weighing in on critical defense issues.  I think he must be unhappy that the Space Force has not adopted his uniforms.

20. What the heck is wrong with you, Space Force?

militarytimes.com · by Bill Shatner · August 26, 2020

And here is the OpEd in William Shatner’s own words.

-----------

"History is about life. It's awful when the life is squeezed out of it and there's no flavor left, no uncertainties, no horsing around. It always disturbed me how many biographers never gave their subjects a chance to eat. You can tell a lot about people by how they eat, what they eat, and what kind of table manners they have."

- David McCullough 

"The secret of it all, is to write in the gush, the throb, the flood, of the moment - to put things down without deliberation - without worrying about their style - without waiting for a fit time or place. I always worked that way. I took the first scrap of paper, the first doorstep, the first desk, and wrote - wrote, wrote. By writing at the instant the very heartbeat of life is caught."

- Walt Whitman 

"Just as nature takes every obstacle, every impediment, and works around it - turns it to its purposes, incorporates it into itself - so, too, a rational being can turn each setback into raw material and use it to achieve its goal."

- Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

 

 

 

08/26/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Wed, 08/26/2020 - 11:52am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. Kim Yo Jong has taken over a key North Korean political post, another potential sign of her increasing authority

2. What is Kim Yo Jong's exact role in North Korean politics? Top South Korean officials appear divided

3.  North Korean leader Kim calls for prevention efforts against coronavirus, looming typhoon: KCNA

4. N.K. leader chairs politburo meeting to discuss typhoon preparation, antivirus efforts

5.  Wracked by economic meltdown, North Korea pauses weapons testing

6. N. Korea orders suspension of all trade across Sino-North Korean border

7. N. Korea using hackers to steal, fund weapons program: U.S. commander

8. North Korea LinkedIn hackers are targeting Brits in wave of fake job scams

9. N.Korean hackers suspected in Phishing Attack (South Korea and escapees targeted)

10. Women's evolving role in North Korea's Jangmadang generation

11. Civilian Army worker at unit participating in joint exercise with U.S. tests positive for COVID-19

12. S. Korea detects more of mutated strain of COVID-19 that hit N. America, Europe

13. Unexpected mystery submarine in North Korea

14. White House official 'burst into laughter' when hearing Kim Jong-un coma claims

15. North Korea doesn't trust China to protect it

16. FDD | Beijing seeks to divide Seoul and Washington

17. Oct. 10 military parade still appears set to go ahead as planned (north Korea)

18. Moon's new security team off to awkward start

19. Defense Ministry refutes Kim Won-wung's criticism of late Gen. Paik

20. Family of Japanese woman abducted by North Korea seeks US help to bring her home

 

1. Kim Yo Jong has taken over a key North Korean political post, another potential sign of her increasing authority

CNN · by Joshua Berlinger and Yoonjung Seo, CNN

We should all understand how important the Organization and Guidance Department is. This is a key assessment from Robert Collins who probably knows more about the OGD than anyone outside of it. There is a lot to digest in this short but important comment.

Becoming the OGD Director is the only avenue to potential leadership of NK for Kim Yo-jong should something happen to Kim Jong-un. Any other route leaves her insufficient influence over the NK elite of the elite. The OGD controls the General Political Bureau which controls all military officers. Lack of such control opens the door to a coup, something she would not likely survive. So if she is not the OGD Dir, she still is only KJU's sister with KJU-approved billboard support from the Propaganda and Agitation Department. If she becomes the OGD Dir, I am impressed.  That would also imply that KJU is worried about all the challenges NK is facing with the sanctions impairing the economy, especially the military, the coronavirus pandemic, and the natural disasters.

2. What is Kim Yo Jong's exact role in North Korean politics? Top South Korean officials appear divided

CNN · by Joshua Berlinger and Yoonjung Seo, CNN

Different assessments from the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Unification.

3.  North Korean leader Kim calls for prevention efforts against coronavirus, looming typhoon: KCNA

uk.reuters.com

I think the regime will be internally focused for weeks to come. The next major event is the October 10th celebration. If they are not able to complete the preparations in time, I expect we could see a provocation that will create the perception of high tensions and thus they will have to scrap the celebration. Additionally, if the coronavirus gets out of hand, we could see some of provocation to divert attention and ten demands on the South for assistance while the South is blamed for introducing the virus at Ksesong but the double defector. But other than that, I expect Kim is going to have his hands full dealing with the crisis.

4. N.K. leader chairs politburo meeting to discuss typhoon preparation, antivirus efforts

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · August 26, 2020

Looking good in their “summer whites.”

5.  Wracked by economic meltdown, North Korea pauses weapons testing

freebeacon.com · by Jack Beyrer · August 25, 2020

Yes the regime is distracted but we should not be complacent. 

6. N. Korea orders suspension of all trade across Sino-North Korean border

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · August 26, 2020

This will have a severe impact on the market economy inside North Korea which is the key to economic resilience and economic survival of the Korean people in the North. As has been noted this is far more damaging than international sanctions.

7. N. Korea using hackers to steal, fund weapons program: U.S. commander

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · August 26, 2020

No surprise but we need to conduct aggressive cyber defense and offensive operations against the north Korea and governments, businesses, and individuals need to be aware of the north Korean cyber threat that is posed on multiple levels against multiple targets.

8. North Korea LinkedIn hackers are targeting Brits in wave of fake job scams

Mirror · by Michael Havis · August 25, 2020

Everyone is vulnerable to North Korean attacks unless we practice good cyber civil defense and good cyber hygiene. 

9. N.Korean hackers suspected in Phishing Attack (South Korea and escapees targeted)

english.chosun.com · August 26, 2020

10. Women's evolving role in North Korea's Jangmadang generation

HRNK · by Emily Gibson, Edited by Rosa Park · August 25, 2020

11. Civilian Army worker at unit participating in joint exercise with U.S. tests positive for COVID-19

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · August 26, 2020

12. S. Korea detects more of mutated strain of COVID-19 that hit N. America, Europe

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · August 26, 2020

The virus mutates to survive of course. And that obviously makes it harder to contain and eradicate. And international travel helps the pandemic to continue to spread.

13. Unexpected mystery submarine in North Korea

Forbes · by H I Sutton · August 26, 2020

The regime continues to try to modernize in key areas. Is this an indigenously developed submarine?

14. White House official 'burst into laughter' when hearing Kim Jong-un coma claims

The Sun · by Christy Cooney · August 25, 2020

More "sun-sational" reporting. I wonder who it was who burst into laughter?

15. North Korea doesn't trust China to protect it

Foreign Policy · by Monet Stokes · August 25, 2020

Say it ain't so. One thing we can know for sure - the regime is so paranoid it trusts no one. However, I do not recall any Chinese offer to provide a nuclear umbrella over North Korea.

16. FDD | Beijing seeks to divide Seoul and Washington

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · August 25, 2020

From my colleague Mathew Ha.  We need to expose China's strategy.

17. Oct. 10 military parade still appears set to go ahead as planned (north Korea)

dailynk.com · by  Jeong Tae Joo · August 26, 2020

And I am sure every briefing to KJU says everything is on track. What will happen when they have to tell him all the construction projects, etc are not ready?

18. Moon's new security team off to awkward start

The Korea Times · August 26, 2020

I think South Korea needs to rethink the role and mission of the Ministry of Unification as it treads on the turf of the NIS and MOFA. I think it should focus solely on planning and preparation for real unification under a United Republic of Korea and get out of the business of trying to appease north Korea.

19. Defense Ministry refutes Kim Won-wung's criticism of late Gen. Paik

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

This is so terribly insulting.  I am glad MND is refuting this but for a government official to make these kinds of slanderous remarks is really disgusting. He should be censored.

20. Family of Japanese woman abducted by North Korea seeks US help to bring her home

Stars and Stripes · by Hank Kusumoto and Seth Robson · August 26, 2020

-----------

"History is about life. It's awful when the life is squeezed out of it and there's no flavor left, no uncertainties, no horsing around. It always disturbed me how many biographers never gave their subjects a chance to eat. You can tell a lot about people by how they eat, what they eat, and what kind of table manners they have."

- David McCullough 

"The secret of it all, is to write in the gush, the throb, the flood, of the moment - to put things down without deliberation - without worrying about their style - without waiting for a fit time or place. I always worked that way. I took the first scrap of paper, the first doorstep, the first desk, and wrote - wrote, wrote. By writing at the instant the very heartbeat of life is caught."

- Walt Whitman 

"Just as nature takes every obstacle, every impediment, and works around it - turns it to its purposes, incorporates it into itself - so, too, a rational being can turn each setback into raw material and use it to achieve its goal."

- Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

 

 

 

08/23/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Sun, 08/23/2020 - 11:46am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. New virus cases spike to near 400 as KCDC warns of nationwide pandemic crisis (South Korea)

2. Seoul to mandate masks starting Monday; gov't says this week is crucial in anti-virus fight

3. Kim Jong-un dead and sister poised for North Korea takeover experts say after clue spotted

4. North Korea's Kim Jong-un In a Coma? History Cries Out to Be Skeptical.

5. North Korea's nuclear weapons pose a greater threat than meets the eye

6. Strange Developments Afoot in N.Korea

7. S. Korea ‘on brink of nationwide pandemic’

8. ‘Clear willingness to kill’ - Extent North Korea will go for world domination

9. Interview: 'From an Overall Safety Point of View, There is Not a Huge Concern' About Flooding at Yongbyon

10. China, South Korea vow to further develop bilateral ties, uphold multilateralism

11. Time for South Korea to Build Nuclear Submarines?

 

1. New virus cases spike to near 400 as KCDC warns of nationwide pandemic crisis (South Korea)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · August 23, 2020

I am confident Korea will get a handle on this. Again, we can learn from this.

 

2. Seoul to mandate masks starting Monday; gov't says this week is crucial in anti-virus fight

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · August 23, 2020

So again, is this a second wave?

 

3. Kim Jong-un dead and sister poised for North Korea takeover experts say after clue spotted

Express · by Ciaran McGrath · August 23, 2020

There is not a grain of salt big enough for this "report."  A lot of "speculation" in this with not much analysis.  I think this all stems from one NIS briefing to the South Korean National Assembly and one politician talking out of school.

 

4. North Korea's Kim Jong-un In a Coma? History Cries Out to Be Skeptical.

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · August 22, 2020

I certainly agree with Mr. DePetris.  We need to be skeptical.

That said, North Korea is the hardest target and it is difficult for us to know what is reality happening inside Pyongyang.  So we should be skeptical but we also should be wary and these reports should remind us that we need to have contingency plans for what might come next in north Korea.  We should be able to answer this question: When we learn that Kim Jong-un is dead what actions are we prepared to take immediately?  Have we thoroughly wargamed hit out from an alliance perspective?

 

5. North Korea's nuclear weapons pose a greater threat than meets the eye

Washington Examiner · by Cory Evans · August 23, 2020

The author's bottomline: "It remains a vital national security interest of the U.S. to limit, to whatever extent we can, North Korea’s nuclear enrichment program."  And this is a critical conclusion: "Given the critical security threat posed by its clandestine nuclear program, suspending sanctions against North Korea would be a grave strategic mistake. Let’s hope the next administration avoids it."

 

6. Strange Developments Afoot in N.Korea

english.chosun.com

It is still too soon to know with any certainty that these changes have taken place.  We need to keep in mind the regime's ruling system is based on one man (or woman) rule.  There is no provision for "splitting" duties and responsibilities. If these developments are in fact happening, then we need to be on guard for mistakes and miscalculation. 

 

7. S. Korea ‘on brink of nationwide pandemic’

asiatimes.com · by AT Contributor · August 23, 2020

 

8. ‘Clear willingness to kill’ - Extent North Korea will go for world domination

Express · by Joel Day · August 22, 2020

World domination?  Sounds like something out of Team America.  However, I will say the regime does want to dominate the Korean peninsula.  That is the key objective of the regime's strategy.

 

9. Interview: 'From an Overall Safety Point of View, There is Not a Huge Concern' About Flooding at Yongbyon

rfa.org· by Sangmin Lee

Perhaps some good news. An interview with Olli Heinonen.

 

10. China, South Korea vow to further develop bilateral ties, uphold multilateralism

chinadaily.com.cn · by 刘明

This is a view from China.  There should be no doubt that China seeks to drive a wedge between the ROK and US and is actively trying to bring the ROK into its sphere of influence.

 

11. Time for South Korea to Build Nuclear Submarines?

The National Interest · by Sanghoon Kim · August 22, 2020

This is not a new idea and will continue to be debated in the ROK. The author points out a number of problems with this.

 

--------------------

 

"Propaganda seeks to destroy art in order to sanitize culture."

- Mary Karr in The Art of Memoir

 

"So the realm of strategy is one of bargaining and persuasion as well as threats and pressure, psychological as well as physical effects, and words as well as deeds. This is why strategy is the central political art. It is about getting more out of a situation than the starting balance of power would suggest. It is the art of creating power."

- Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History

 

"There is simple ignorance, which is the source of lighter offenses,

and double ignorance, which is accompanied by a conceit of wisdom; and he who is under the influence of the latter fancies that he knows all about matters of which he knows nothing."

- Plato