News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

1. S. Korea, US set to launch combined summertime exercise next week

2. What Sort of Deal Would North Korea Strike with Donald Trump?

3. OECD sees South Korea growth to outperform all others this year

4. N. Korea's border dam remains partially open amid heavy rains: JCS

5. US Forces Korea reports five more coronavirus cases as it eases restrictions

6. South Korea is developing its own Iron Dome-type defense system

7. China Inside Out: A wake up call from a South Korean perspective (3)

8. Defense Ministry plans to build enhanced ballistic missile submarines

9. N.Korea Suffers Devastating Floods

10. South Korean Enlisted Soldiers to Get Steep Pay Rise

11. South Korea: Will Soldiers' Pay Rise Do Any Good?

12. Soldier arrested after sneaking past Pyongyang's tight security

13. Teetering towards Armageddon: North Korea triggers alarm bells as warning issued to Trump

14. North Korea prostitution conspiracy: Kim Jong-un EXECUTES officials as war on sex erupts

1. S. Korea, US set to launch combined summertime exercise next week

koreaherald.com · August 11, 2020

OPCON Transition - political leaders (e.g., Moon) focus on time-based transition (before end of his term). Military professionals focus on conditions-based transition.

2. What Sort of Deal Would North Korea Strike with Donald Trump?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · August 10, 2020

Please do not show this to President Trump (not because of the insults from Mr. Bandow but because of the danger of his blueprint coming true).

But seriously, this satire does in a humorous way describe Kim Jong-un's political warfare strategy in support of his long con which is to get sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear weapons. But most importantly, this supports the ultimate strategy of the regime: the intermediate objective of getting US forces off the peninsula so the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State can finally dominate the Korean peninsula.

So I very rarely agree with Mr. Bandow, but this satire is spot on because it so accurately describes the thinking and nature of Kim Jong-un and his regime. Mr. Bandow is to be commended.

3. OECD sees South Korea growth to outperform all others this year

Reuters · by Cynthia Kim · August 11, 2020

A left-handed compliment? South Korea is doing better than most because it is doing "less bad."

4. N. Korea's border dam remains partially open amid heavy rains: JCS

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · August 11, 2020

But has the North done any coordination or information exchange with the South? Apparently not.

5. US Forces Korea reports five more coronavirus cases as it eases restrictions

Stars and Stripes · by Kim Gamel · August 10, 2020

6. South Korea is developing its own Iron Dome-type defense system

jpost.com · by Celia Jean · August 11, 2020

I hope South Korea can make this work. I suppose if any country can develop a technical solution it could be the ROK. But what about a defense against the 6000 or so systems that can mass artillery fire that North Korea can bring to bear on the greater Seoul Metropolitan Area?

7. China Inside Out: A wake up call from a South Korean perspective (3)

onekoreanetwork.com

From a Korean conservative perspective. Advice for the US on communist United Front tactics. I do not intend this to be a partisan statement against one political party. But I think it is useful to examine United front Tactics from a South Korean perspective and for application in the US.

8. Defense Ministry plans to build enhanced ballistic missile submarines

m.koreaherald.com · August 10, 2020

I think nuclear powered submarines may be unhelpful and a waste of resources for South Korea. It appears to be a vanity project to me.

9. N.Korea Suffers Devastating Floods

english.chosun.com · August 10, 2020

Surely the Korean people in the North are suffering terribly under these conditions which is made worse by the incompetence of the Kim family regime.

10. South Korean Enlisted Soldiers to Get Steep Pay Rise

english.chosun.com

I commend the South Korean modernization program that includes a focus on the soldier even if it is only due to a campaign promise. Note the criticism.

11. South Korea: Will Soldiers' Pay Rise Do Any Good?

english.chosun.com · August 11, 2020

Note the comments about dwindling manpower (the low birth rate in Korea is reducing the number of military age males available for conscription).

Although I have only read what has been reported in the press about the 2021-2025 modernization plan, what I have not read about is a way to mitigate the manpower challenge. The theory is a more high tech and lethal military can be more effective with fewer soldiers and therefore soldiers can be paid more. We should be under no illusion, modern war on the Korean peninsula (or instability and regime collapse in the north) will be just as manpower intensive as in the past. The way to sustain a larger manpower pool is through the development and sustainment of a large well trained (or at least adequately trained) reserve force. The South should be focusing on sustaining a pool of trained reservists for 10 years from age 25 through 35 they should receive sufficient pay to train one weekend a month and two weeks in the year rather than a short mobilization period once per year. But this will be expensive and require a significant paradigm shift for the ROK military (and citizens).

12. Soldier arrested after sneaking past Pyongyang's tight security

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · August 11, 2020

So I guess there is adequate testing capability in Pyongyang. But if the first step with a captured deserter is to test him for the coronavirus then it seems likely there is some kind of outbreak and the regime is sacred. Note the priority is on Pyongyang and keeping it isolated from the virus that might come from the provinces. 

13. Teetering towards Armageddon: North Korea triggers alarm bells as warning issued to Trump

Express · by Ciaran McGrath · August 10, 2020

I am unfamiliar with Ruth-Ann Monti and her book North Korea in 100 Facts. She does make some good points about Kim not giving up his nuclear weapons.

On sanctions she has the views of many in that leaders are rarely affected by sanctions. However, like many, she misses the point. Yes, Kim is circumventing some of the effects of sanctions due to his illicit activities as well as the support of China and Russia. But Kim is affected by the sanctions in that he has failed to get lifted after he raised expectations among his elite and the military that he could successfully "play" Trump and Moon.  This failure is more important than the loss of funds and resources due to the sanctions. It is what is ultimately going to cause him to reassess his strategy or will cause the elite and the military to do so. This is why we have to stay the course and cannot go wobbly on sanctions relief.

14. North Korea prostitution conspiracy: Kim Jong-un EXECUTES officials as war on sex erupts

Express · by Ciaran McGrath · August 10, 2020

No one can have sex but Kim Jong-un I guess. But the young student women are treated horribly. I do not understand how anyone can support or make excuses for the evil Kim family regime.

-----------

“The world has achieved brilliance without conscience. Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants.”

- General of the Army Omar Bradley. Veterans (Armistice) Day, 1948

 "Live as if you were to die tomorrow. Learn as if you were to live forever."

- Mahatma Gandhi

“The soldier who fights to death never dies, but the soldier who fights for existence never truly exists.”

-Admiral Yi Sun-shin

Special Stand Alone News Item: New NCTC Director

5th time's the charm? Pentagon has yet another civilian leader of special operations in 3 years

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol

DNI Ratcliffe Welcomes Chris Miller as NCTC Director

dni.gov · by Daniel A. Haug ODNI News Release No. 30-20 Aug. 10, 2020

Dave's Commentary: " Buried lede:  Congratulations to Chris Miller who is now the Director of NCTC.  Another great American. See ODNI press release below the article.

I am becoming increasingly convinced that if Congress wants true civilian oversight of SOF it will have to establish a civilian organization that has service responsibilities AND authorities not 'service-like.  SOF needs to be in its own Department of Special Operations as I argue here. "

------------

Again, unfortunately, we are dealing with jargon, which, as usual, bears only a faint resemblance to well defined, specific concepts."  

- Clausewitz

"The American defense community is especially prone to capture by the latest catchphrase, the new-sounding spin on an ancient idea which as jargon separates those who are truly expert from the lesser breeds without the jargon."  

- Colin Gray

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

1. U.S. National Security Adviser says China targeting 2020 election

2. The U.S. has AI competition all wrong

3. China is counting on Island outposts to project power – But U.S. troops could capture them

4. Conspiracy theorists are convinced there's a secret message hidden in this Army photo

5. Lincoln library cancels exhibition over racial sensitivity concerns

6. Why China is warning Trump of war

7. A view from the CT Foxhole: Chris Costa, Former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism

8. Night stalker MH-47 Emerges with mystery modifications during training in Colorado

9. Arrest of Wagner Mercenaries in Belarus: Foiled coup or political theater?

10. Oppose China’s censorship, but don’t kill the Hollywood-military partnership

11. Esper says US troop presence in Afghanistan will be 'less than 5,000' by November

12. The price of peace: Why Japan scrapped a $4.2bn US missile system

13. TikTok is inane. China’s imperial ambition is not.

14. Turning a blind eye internationally will cost us

1. U.S. National Security Adviser says China targeting 2020 election

WSJ · by Dustin Volz

I think China may actually be the bigger threat than Russia.

2. The U.S. has AI competition all wrong

Foreign Affairs · by Ben Buchanan · August 7, 2020

An interesting perspective. I have heard it said at conferences that he who controls the data controls the future.

3. China is counting on Island outposts to project power – But U.S. troops could capture them

Forbes · by David Axe · August 9, 2020

Kind of reminds me of the island hopping campaign of WWII to be able extend air power. But will seem simple compared to the modern threat environment.

4. Conspiracy theorists are convinced there's a secret message hidden in this Army photo

taskandpurpose.com · by Jared Keller

You really do have to admire the tenacity of the conspiracy theorists who can find "evidence" of the conspiracy in any situation.

Photos at the link.

5. Lincoln library cancels exhibition over racial sensitivity concerns

The New York Times · by Sarah Bahr · August 5, 2020

6. Why China is warning Trump of war

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · August 9, 2020

7. A view from the CT Foxhole: Chris Costa, Former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism

ctc.usma.edu · July 31, 2020

A comprehensive interview. Terrorism is not going away.

8. Night stalker MH-47 Emerges with mystery modifications during training in Colorado

thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · August 9, 2020

There are no more secrets.

9. Arrest of Wagner Mercenaries in Belarus: Foiled coup or political theater?

intpolicydigest.org · by Kseniya Kirillova · August 9, 2020

10. Oppose China’s censorship, but don’t kill the Hollywood-military partnership

militarytimes.com · by Jim Lechner · August 9, 2020

Give Tom Cruise back his flight jacket with the Taiwan patch on it.

Some say the decision to remove Cruise's flight jacket is "just a business decision." by the US movie execs.

Yes to us perhaps this is just business. However, I think to the Chinese it is all about controlling the narrative to influence the culture and ensure the young generation around the world grows up with a positive image of China. They are never going to see China or its military or the Communist Party portrayed as a threat because of our business decisions. And they will see more and more of how screwed up the US and the west is. It is subtle now and it will grow. And I think China is banking on our mindset that it is just business - we are willing to sacrifice the portrayal of American values and identity purely for profit while China cares less about profit and more about influence over time. I think China is playing a long game.

11. Esper says US troop presence in Afghanistan will be 'less than 5,000' by November

The Hill · by Justin Wise · August 9, 2020

Focus is always on the top line troop number. What about the capabilities?

12. The price of peace: Why Japan scrapped a $4.2bn US missile system

asia.nikkei.com

A relatively long analysis that covers a lot of ground.

13. TikTok is inane. China’s imperial ambition is not.

Bloomberg · by Niall Ferguson · August 9, 2020

This is the elephant in the room. China is doing a better job of exporting its "culture" and "values." 

14. Turning a blind eye internationally will cost us

ozy.com · by John McLaughlin · August 7, 2020

-----------

"Again, unfortunately, we are dealing with jargon, which, as usual, bears only a faint resemblance to well defined, specific concepts."  

- Clausewitz

"The American defense community is especially prone to capture by the latest catchphrase, the new-sounding spin on an ancient idea which as jargon separates those who are truly expert from the lesser breeds without the jargon."  

- Colin Gray

"History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely, once they have exhausted all other alternatives."

- Abba Eban

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

1. Flying leaflets into NK was against basic rule of democracy: senior official

2. Cheong Wa Dae should overhaul all senior officials in charge

3. The future of the US-South Korea and US-Japan alliances

4.  Letter to President Moon Jae-in: Suppression of fundamental freedoms, Oppression of human rights activists and North Korean defectors in South Korea

5. 3 new mutated COVID-19 strains detected in S. Korea: KCDC

6. Defense aspirations include aircraft carrier, nuclear sub

7. Submarine: A closed ecosystem

8. How has Kim Jong Un changed his country's prison camps?

9. Seoul no longer off-limits starting Monday thanks to low coronavirus numbers, USFK says

10. Guard Command soldier's death shrouded in mystery, even to next of kin

11. S. Korea tipped to rank 9th in 2020 global GDP rankings

12. Red Cross trains thousands of North Koreans to help cope with coronavirus, floods

13. This year's monsoon to be longest on record

14. Trump wants troops home but not out of South Korea - Yet

15. Moon names three new senior secretaries

1. Flying leaflets into NK was against basic rule of democracy: senior official

m.koreaherald.com · by Kim So-hyun · August 9, 2020

As human beings we have a moral responsibility to help our fellow human beings who are oppressed. Access to information is a basic principle of freedom and the Korea people in the North do not have access to information because their human rights are denied by the Kim family regime to keep Kim Jong-un in power. I find Ms.Lee's argument to not only be wrong but also morally reprehensible.

2. Cheong Wa Dae should overhaul all senior officials in charge

donga.com · August 10, 2020

A strong critique of the Moon administration.

3. The future of the US-South Korea and US-Japan alliances

The Korea Times · August 9, 2020

This is an essay on the alliances that is really a cover for an anti-Trump screed.

It covers a lot of ground to basically say our traditional alliance structure is an anachronism; however, it does not offer any recommendations for the future despite the title.

4. Letter to President Moon Jae-in: Suppression of fundamental freedoms, Oppression of human rights activists and North Korean defectors in South Korea

eastasiaresearch.org · by Tara O· August 5, 2020

Five key recommendations:

1) End your suppression of freedom of expression for South Korean journalists and authors

2) Stop threatening religious freedom and the rule of law

3) Cease your oppression and intimidation of North Korean defectors and North Korea human rights organizations

4) End your repatriation of North Korean defectors

5) Be the voice for the freedom and human rights of ALL Koreans as you are constitutionally and morally obligated to do.

5. 3 new mutated COVID-19 strains detected in S. Korea: KCDC

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · August 10, 2020

Obviously not a good sign and this could certainly complicate development of a vaccine.

6. Defense aspirations include aircraft carrier, nuclear sub

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Shim Kyu-Seok 

Some very interesting defense projects. I wonder if any of our NATO allies are investing in this broad array of military capabilities? (of course this is the aspirational wish list) But why a nuclear powered submarine? Why waste the resources building that? What real advantage will it provide given the cost and the infrastructure necessary to maintain and operate. This has always seemed like. a vanity project as I have heard the proposals over the years. Purely a "status symbol." And given President Moon's move away from nuclear energy I wonder if he would even approve something like this (of course it is probably decades away from completion if it were ever approved). But nuclear powered does not equal nuclear armed.

7. Submarine: A closed ecosystem

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com 

I could not resist sharing this OpEd about the new movie in Korea. What a plot. And then the author links it to COVID 19 in the comparison to a closed ecosystem!

8. How has Kim Jong Un changed his country's prison camps?

dailynk.com · by Lee Ho Jin · August 10, 2020

Some key points. Note the two different kinds of camps. Note the increasing numbers. And note what are the expected orders if war breaks out.

I would urge anyone interested in learning about this camps to go through the publications section of the HRNK web site where there is large amount of research on the gulag system in North Korea. 

9. Seoul no longer off-limits starting Monday thanks to low coronavirus numbers, USFK says

Stars and Stripes · August 7, 2020

The last time we were in Seoul in January of this year we heard anecdotal evidence that few people from Camp Humphreys travel to Seoul for R&R/shopping, etc. Most seem to remain at Camp Humphreys.

10. Guard Command soldier's death shrouded in mystery, even to next of kin

dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin · August 10, 2020

Another anecdote that could be an indicator. But described as "Killed in action?"

We should also not forget the Koreans in the North are human beings too. This could be a mother in any country anywhere in the world.

11. S. Korea tipped to rank 9th in 2020 global GDP rankings

en.yna.co.kr · by 곽영섭 · August 10, 2020

Will have to change my lecture notes. But obviously this is only because the ROK did not do as badly as others economically. But it could be a testament to how well it has handled the coronavirus.

12. Red Cross trains thousands of North Koreans to help cope with coronavirus, floods

The Globe and Mail · by Hyonhee Shin · August 10, 2020

13. This year's monsoon to be longest on record

english.chosun.com · August 10, 2020

14. Trump wants troops home but not out of South Korea – Yet

The American Conservative · by Harry J. Kazianis

Well I am glad Harry Kazianis is able to confirm this for us with the caveat, "yet."

I think he is right here. We continually assess our force posture around the world to determine if it adequately supports our national defense strategy: e.g., "broader re-examination of how to reposition and potentially reduce military deployments world-wide"

My guess is POTUS asked the Pentagon to give him options for bringing back troops from around the world (probably as many and as soon as possible). DOD probably conducted analysis of how best to forward station forces in support of the NDS and came back with options to bring home a relatively small number while repositioning a larger number (perhaps to both try and satisfy POTUS and better support the NDS).

Note the comments from the South Korean progressives and their misguided understanding of OPCON transition. But I do agree that we should be conducting a combined force posture review of both ROK and US forces in preparation for OPCON transition. The ROK military is evolving due to changing demographics so both ROK and US force structure and posture needs to be examined and we should do it in a combined manner to strengthen the alliance.

15. Moon names three new senior secretaries

n.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · August 10, 2020

-----------

"Again, unfortunately, we are dealing with jargon, which, as usual, bears only a faint resemblance to well defined, specific concepts."  

- Clausewitz

"The American defense community is especially prone to capture by the latest catchphrase, the new-sounding spin on an ancient idea which as jargon separates those who are truly expert from the lesser breeds without the jargon."  

- Colin Gray

"History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely, once they have exhausted all other alternatives."

- Abba Eban

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.         

1. U.S. National Security Adviser Says China Targeting 2020 Election

2. The U.S. Has AI Competition All Wrong

3. China Is Counting On Island Outposts To Project Power - But U.S. Troops Could Capture Them

4. Conspiracy theorists are convinced there's a secret message hidden in this Army photo

5. Lincoln Library Cancels Exhibition Over Racial Sensitivity Concerns

6. Why China is warning Trump of war

7. A View from the CT Foxhole: Chris Costa, Former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism

8. Night Stalker MH-47 Emerges With Mystery Modifications During Training In Colorado

9. Arrest of Wagner Mercenaries in Belarus: Foiled Coup or Political Theater?

10. Oppose China's censorship, but don't kill the Hollywood-military partnership

11. Esper says US troop presence in Afghanistan will be 'less than 5,000' by November

12. The price of peace: Why Japan scrapped a $4.2bn US missile system

13. TikTok Is Inane. China's Imperial Ambition Is Not.

14. Turning a Blind Eye Internationally Will Cost Us

1. U.S. National Security Adviser Says China Targeting 2020 Election

WSJ · by Dustin Volz· August 9, 2020

I think China may actually be the bigger threat than Russia.   

2. The U.S. Has AI Competition All Wrong

Foreign Affairs · by Ben Buchanan · August 7, 2020

An interesting perspective.  I have heard it said at conferences that he who controls the data controls the future.

3. China Is Counting On Island Outposts To Project Power - But U.S. Troops Could Capture Them

Forbes · by David Axe · August 9, 2020

Kind of reminds me of the island hopping campaign of WWII to be able extend air power.  But will seem simple compared to the modern threat environment.

4. Conspiracy theorists are convinced there's a secret message hidden in this Army photo

taskandpurpose.com · by Jared Keller

You really do have to admire the tenacity of the conspiracy theorists who can find "evidence" of the conspiracy in any situation.

Photos at the link: 

5. Lincoln Library Cancels Exhibition Over Racial Sensitivity Concerns

The New York Times · by Sarah Bahr · August 5, 2020

6. Why China is warning Trump of war

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · August 9, 2020

7. A View from the CT Foxhole: Chris Costa, Former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism

ctc.usma.edu · July 31, 2020

A comprehensive interview.  Terrorism is not going away.

8. Night Stalker MH-47 Emerges With Mystery Modifications During Training In Colorado

thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · August 9, 2020

There are no more secrets.

9. Arrest of Wagner Mercenaries in Belarus: Foiled Coup or Political Theater?

intpolicydigest.org · by Kseniya Kirillova · August 9, 2020

10. Oppose China's censorship, but don't kill the Hollywood-military partnership

militarytimes.com · by Jim Lechner · August 9, 2020

Give Tom Cruise back his flight jacket with the Taiwan patch on it.

Some say the decision to remove Cruise's flight jacket is "just a business decision." by the US movie execs.

Yes to us, perhaps this is just business.  However, I think to the Chinese it is all about controlling the narrative to influence the culture and ensure the young generation around the world grows up with a positive image of China.  They are never going to see China or its military or the Communist Party portrayed as a threat because of our business decisions.  And they will see more and more of how screwed up the US and the west is. It is subtle now and it will grow.  And I think China is banking on our mindset that it is just business - we are willing to sacrifice the portrayal of American values and identity purely for profit while China cares less about profit and more about influence over time.  I think China is playing a long game.

11. Esper says US troop presence in Afghanistan will be 'less than 5,000' by November

The Hill · by Justin Wise · August 9, 2020

Focus is always on the top line troop number.  What about the capabilities?

12. The price of peace: Why Japan scrapped a $4.2bn US missile system

asia.nikkei.com

A relatively long analysis that covers a lot of ground.

13. TikTok Is Inane. China's Imperial Ambition Is Not.

Bloomberg · by Niall Ferguson · August 9, 2020

This is the elephant in the room.  China is doing a better job of exporting its "culture" and "values." 

14. Turning a Blind Eye Internationally Will Cost Us

ozy.com · by John McLaughlin · August 7, 2020

--------------

"Again, unfortunately, we are dealing with jargon, which, as usual, bears only a faint resemblance to well defined, specific concepts."  

- Clausewitz

"The American defense community is especially prone to capture by the latest catchphrase, the new-sounding spin on an ancient idea which as jargon separates those who are truly expert from the lesser breeds without the jargon."  

- Colin Gray

"History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely, once they have exhausted all other alternatives."

- Abba Eban

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Flying leaflets into NK was against basic rule of democracy: senior official

2. Cheong Wa Dae should overhaul all senior officials in charge

3.  The future of the US-South Korea and US-Japan alliances

4.  Letter to President Moon Jae-in: Suppression of Fundamental Freedoms, Oppression of Human Rights Activists and North Korean Defectors in South Korea

5. 3 new mutated COVID-19 strains detected in S. Korea: KCDC

6. Defense aspirations include aircraft carrier, nuclear sub

7. Submarine: A closed ecosystem

8. How has Kim Jong Un changed his country's prison camps?

9. Seoul no longer off-limits starting Monday thanks to low coronavirus numbers, USFK says

10. Guard Command soldier's death shrouded in mystery, even to next of kin

11. S. Korea tipped to rank 9th in 2020 global GDP rankings

12. Red Cross trains thousands of North Koreans to help cope with coronavirus, floods

13. This Year's Monsoon to Be Longest on Record

14. Trump Wants Troops Home But Not Out of South Korea - Yet

15. Moon names three new senior secretaries

1. Flying leaflets into NK was against basic rule of democracy: senior official

m.koreaherald.com · by Kim So-hyun · August 9, 2020

As human beings, we have a moral responsibility to help our fellow human beings who are oppressed.  Access to information is a basic principle of freedom and the Korea people in the north do not have access to information because their human rights are denied by the Kim family regime to keep Kim Jong-un in power. I find Ms. Lee's argument to not only be wrong but also morally reprehensible. 

2. Cheong Wa Dae should overhaul all senior officials in charge

donga.com· August 10, 2020

A strong critique of the Moon administration.

3. The future of the US-South Korea and US-Japan alliances

The Korea Times · August 9, 2020

This is an essay on the alliances that is really a cover for an anti-Trump screed.

It covers a lot of ground to basically say our traditional alliance structure is an anachronism; however, it does not offer any recommendations for the future despite the title.

4. Letter to President Moon Jae-in: Suppression of Fundamental Freedoms, Oppression of Human Rights Activists and North Korean Defectors in South Korea

eastasiaresearch.org · by Tara O· August 5, 2020

NKFC-Letter-2020-8-4Download

Five key recommendations:

1) End your suppression of freedom of expression for South Korean journalists and authors

2) Stop threatening religious freedom and the rule of law

3) Cease your oppression and intimidation of North Korean defectors and North Korea human rights organizations

4) End your repatriation of North Korean defectors

5) Be the voice for the freedom and human rights of ALL Koreans as you are constitutionally and morally obligated to do.

5. 3 new mutated COVID-19 strains detected in S. Korea: KCDC

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · August 10, 2020

Obviously not a good sign and this could certainly complicate development of a vaccine.

6. Defense aspirations include aircraft carrier, nuclear sub

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok

Some very interesting defense projects. I wonder if any of our NATO allies are investing in this broad array of military capabilities (of course this is the aspirational wish list)?  But, why a nuclear powered submarine? Why waste the resources building that?  What real advantage will it provide given the cost and the infrastructure necessary to maintain and operate? This has always seemed like. a vanity project as I have heard the proposals over the years.  Purely a "status symbol."  And given President Moon's move away from nuclear energy I wonder if he would even approve something like this (of course it is probably decades away from completion if it were ever approved).  But nuclear powered does not equal nuclear armed.

7. Submarine: A closed ecosystem

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Lee Dong-Hyun

I could not resist sharing this OpEd about the new movie in Korea. What a plot.  And then the author links it to COVID 19 in the comparison to a closed ecosystem!

8. How has Kim Jong Un changed his country's prison camps?

dailynk.com · by Lee Ho Jin· August 10, 2020

Some key points. Note the two different kinds of camps. Note the increasing numbers.  And note what are the expected orders if war breaks out.

I would urge anyone interested in learning about the camps to go through the publications section of the HRNK web site where there is large amount of research on the gulag system in north Korea. 

9. Seoul no longer off-limits starting Monday thanks to low coronavirus numbers, USFK says

Stars and Stripes· Ian Vega-Cerezo · August 7, 2020

The last time we were in Seoul (January of this year) we heard anecdotal evidence that few people from Camp Humphreys travel to Seoul for R&R/shopping, etc.  Most seem to remain at Camp Humphreys.

10. Guard Command soldier's death shrouded in mystery, even to next of kin

dailynk.com ·by Kim Yoo Jin· August 10, 2020

Another anecdote that could be an indicator.  But described as "Killed in action?"

We should also not forget the Koreans in the north are human beings too. This could be a mother in any country anywhere in the world.

11. S. Korea tipped to rank 9th in 2020 global GDP rankings

en.yna.co.kr · by 곽영섭 · August 10, 2020

Will have to change my lecture notes.  But obviously, this is only because the ROK did not do as badly as others economically.  But it could be a testament to how well it has handled the coronavirus. 

12. Red Cross trains thousands of North Koreans to help cope with coronavirus, floods

The Globe and Mail · by Hyonhee Shin · August 10, 2020

13. This Year's Monsoon to Be Longest on Record

english.chosun.com· August 10, 2020

14. Trump Wants Troops Home But Not Out of South Korea - Yet

The American Conservative · by Harry J. Kazianis

Well I am glad Harry Kazianis is able to confirm this for us with the caveat, "yet."

I think he is right here.  We continually assess our force posture around the world to determine if it adequately supports our national defense strategy: e.g., "broader re-examination of how to reposition and potentially reduce military deployments world-wide"

My guess is POTUS asked the Pentagon to give him options for bringing back troops from around the world (probably as many and as soon as possible). DOD probably conducted analysis of how best to forward station forces in support of the NDS and came back with options to bring home a relatively small number while repositioning a larger number (perhaps to both try and satisfy POTUS and better support the NDS).

Note the comments from the South Korean progressives and their misguided understanding of OPCON transition.  But I do agree that we should be conducting a combined force posture review of both ROK and US forces in preparation for OPCON transition.  The ROK military is evolving due to changing demographics so both ROK and US force structure and posture needs to be examined and we should do it in a combined manner to strengthen the alliance.

15.  Moon names three new senior secretaries

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · August 10, 2020

------------------------------

"Again, unfortunately, we are dealing with jargon, which, as usual, bears only a faint resemblance to well defined, specific concepts."  

- Clausewitz

"The American defense community is especially prone to capture by the latest catchphrase, the new-sounding spin on an ancient idea which as jargon separates those who are truly expert from the lesser breeds without the jargon."  

- Colin Gray

"History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely, once they have exhausted all other alternatives."

- Abba Eban

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Kyodo: US seeks liaison offices in Washington, Pyongyang

2. Dear Mr. President, letter, regarding election fraud, South Korea

3. Dismissed N. Korean official confirmed as 1st vice director of key ruling party body

4. South Korea’s old torture factory is making nice with Kim Jong Un

5. North Korean conventional artillery and rocket weapons: just how dangerous?

6. North Korea has made billions of dollars selling weapons around the world

7. North Korea brings aid supplies to border town under lockdown: state media

8. More heavy rain set to pummel flood-stricken N. Korea: weather agency

9. Typhoon Jangmi set to hit southern part of S. Korea with heavy rain

10. At least 30 killed due to weeklong heavy downpours; further heavy rain in store on typhoon

11. Local virus cases on high plateau due to rising church-traced infections

12. BTS to be the youngest recipients of the James A Van Fleet Award from The Korea Society

1. Kyodo: US seeks liaison offices in Washington, Pyongyang

KBS World Radio · August 9, 2020

It is always dicey to trust the Japanese media. I think we have proposed this idea a number of times in the past, but the regime has never had any interest in it. I think it would be great to have a presence in Pyongyang as, on the surface, it seems like the best way to communicate and coordinate and negotiate. But, I seriously doubt that the regime even wants this (though, if they do, it will be because they sense an opportunity to extort exorbitant amounts of money from the US. We will probably be charged more for rent and services than any other US mission overseas). The regime would probably not allow significant engagement or freedom of movement. I am reminded of what diplomats who have been posted to Pyiongyang have told us when they visit Washington, DC: Pyongyang is the only capital that you have to leave to find out what is going on inside. I fear that would be the case for our liaison mission. That said, I would recommend pursuing this opportunity, though I am doubtful if will come to fruition as I am doubtful that it would be of any interest to Kim Jong-Un.

2. Dear Mr. President, letter, regarding election fraud, South Korea

YouTube · by Illegal Early Voting, South Korea (Annie Chan, Chair, KCPAC) · August 9, 2020

The link leads to a YouTube channel (“Illegal Early Voting, South Korea”) with the five-minute reading of the letter. The text of the letter is in the YouTube description.

To state the obvious, this is a quite provocative letter.

3. Dismissed N. Korean official confirmed as 1st vice director of key ruling party body

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · August 9, 2020

For all the leadership experts among the Korea watchers… I guess resurrection is a regular occurrence among the elite of the Kim family regime.

4. South Korea’s old torture factory is making nice with Kim Jong Un

Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk · August 9, 2020

A strong critique on multiple levels of the South Korea intelligence service (past and present).

5. North Korean conventional artillery and rocket weapons: just how dangerous?

1945 · by Harry Kazianis · August 8, 2020

This is a good and important report, but, as many have noted, we have known of this critical and complex problem for years.

6. North Korea has made billions of dollars selling weapons around the world

National Interest · by Mark Episkopos · August 8, 2020

To understand North Korean proliferation around the world, in the Middle East, and in Africa, you should read Bruce Becthol's and Larry Niksch's research.

As an example, see Dr. Bechtol's North Korean Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa: Enabling Violence and Instability.

7. North Korea brings aid supplies to border town under lockdown: state media

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Minwoo Park, & Ana Nicolaci da Costa · August 9, 2020

Small border town? I think there are around a million Koreans in the Kaesong area. But, there must be a significant breakout. Is the regime set to ask for help and to blame South Korea for the outbreak due to the returning "defector?"

8. More heavy rain set to pummel flood-stricken N. Korea: weather agency

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · August 8, 2020

North and South Korea are suffering from these weather conditions.

9. Typhoon Jangmi set to hit southern part of S. Korea with heavy rain

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · August 9, 2020

South Korea does not need a typhoon now.

10. At least 30 killed due to weeklong heavy downpours; further heavy rain in store on typhoon

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · August 9, 2020

I have heard that some of the landslides are the result of clearing hills of vegetation to put up solar panels in pursuit of Moon's clean energy initiatives. I find it hard to believe that this would happen in South Korea, knowing what has happened in the North (the clearing of vegetation throughout the countryside and the severe landslides that have resulted).

11. Local virus cases on high plateau due to rising church-traced infections

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · August 9, 2020

Along with international travel, it must be gatherings of people in close proximity that continues the spread of the virus.

12. BTS to be the youngest recipients of the James A Van Fleet Award from The Korea Society

Pinkvilla · by Pinkvilla Desk · August 9, 2020

BTS getting the van Fleet award seems unusual, but I guess they are improving Korea-American relations.

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."

- William James

"History teaches us that wars begin when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap."

- Ronald Reagan

"In this sad world of ours sorrow comes to all and it often comes with bitter agony. Perfect relief is not possible except with time. You cannot now believe that you will ever feel better. But this is not true. You are sure to be happy again. Knowing this, truly believing it will make you less miserable now. I have had enough experience to make this statement."

 - Abraham Lincoln

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Why Trump's troop withdrawal from Germany is only the beginning

2. Abolish the police? Those who survived the chaos in Seattle aren’t so sure

3. Brent Scowcroft taught a generation how to manage foreign policy

4. US-China relations: is Azar’s visit to Taiwan a sign of Washington’s disregard for Beijing?

5. China’s art of strategic incrementalism in the South China Sea

6. Unwanted truths: inside Trump’s battles with U.S. intelligence agencies

7. I used my bomb training to report on the Beirut explosions

8.  Venezuelan court sentences two former U.S. Green Berets to 20 years for role in botched raid

9. U.S. government contractor embedded software in apps to track phones

10. The overmilitarization of American foreign policy

11. Pro-Beijing influencers and their rose-tinted view of life in Xinjiang

12. Harvard lecturer: ‘No specific skill will get you ahead in the future’-but this ‘way of thinking’ will

13. General Frank J. Toney has died at age 70

14. TikTok, Twitter held talks about sale of popular video app, says report

15. US response to the virus is met with incredulity abroad

16. MDO and the nuclear elephant in the room

17. The China challenge and America's founding principles

18. Red Dawn 2012 remake tainted Sony and MGM in China for years

19. Long before Zoom, British soldiers used technology to stay connected during World War II

20. Traditional Chinese conceptions and approaches to secrecy, denial, and obfuscation

1. Why Trump's troop withdrawal from Germany is only the beginning

National Interest · by Max Bergmann · August 8, 2020

I think the subtitle explains the President's views toward alliances.

2. Abolish the police? Those who survived the chaos in Seattle aren’t so sure

New York Times · by Nellie Bowles · August 7, 2020

I think those who came up with the catch phrase to "defund the police" rather than calling for police reforms have probably made one of the largest strategic errors in information and influence operations.  It will be the equivalent of the pro-choice advocates versus the pro-life advocates (e.g., if you are not in favor of pro-life you must support killing babies). It is events like those described and articles like this one that will discredit those who call for defunding the police instead of substantive police reforms. The use of defund undermines the legitimacy of their cause because it is an IO failure.

3. Brent Scowcroft taught a generation how to manage foreign policy

Washington Post · by David Ignatius · August 7, 2020

The loss of a great American

4. US-China relations: is Azar’s visit to Taiwan a sign of Washington’s disregard for Beijing?

South China Morning Post · by Lawrence Chung · August 9, 2020

This is not unprecedented.

5. China’s art of strategic incrementalism in the South China Sea

National Interest · by Patrick Mendis & Joey Wang · August 8, 2020

Incrementalism works when it goes unchecked.

6. Unwanted truths: inside Trump’s battles with U.S. intelligence agencies

New York Times · by Robert Draper · August 8, 2020

This is not good. I would like to read a counter to this analysis that does not include the words "fake news."

7. I used my bomb training to report on the Beirut explosions

New York Times · by John Ismay · August 6, 2020

8. Venezuelan court sentences two former U.S. Green Berets to 20 years for role in botched raid

Washington Post · by Anthony Fiaola · August 8, 2020

An embarrassment for the SF Regiment.

9. U.S. government contractor embedded software in apps to track phones

Wall Street Journal · by Byron Tau · August 7, 2020

I am sure this will be exploited by Chinese propaganda, e.g. if you think Tik Tok is bad, check out Anomaly Six.

10. The overmilitarization of American foreign policy

Foreign Affairs · by Robert M. Gates · August 3, 2020

11. Pro-Beijing influencers and their rose-tinted view of life in Xinjiang

.coda · by Isobel Cockerell · August 7, 2020

Wow. I cannot imagine walking in Jerry Grey's shoes.

12. Harvard lecturer: ‘No specific skill will get you ahead in the future’-but this ‘way of thinking’ will

CNBC · by Vikram Mansharamani · June 15, 2020

13. General Frank J. Toney has died at age 70

Celebrities Deaths · by Okoro John · August 7, 2020

BG Toney kept the UW flame alive in SF when he was Commander of the US Army Special Forces Command.

A truly great American. I am sure we have all many "BG Toney stories." He was larger than life and one of a kind. I have a few but here is one. He demanded to come visit us in Okinawa on the same day as the G8 Summit with 8 world leaders and when everything was locked down. I tried to politely suggest he chose another date because we would not be able to get him from the airport to Torii station due to security restrictions (e.g., no US military movement off base on the day of the summit). He not so politely told me that I am SF and to just figure it out because he was coming and he did not give a damn who else was going to be there (such as 8 world leaders in July of 2000). Fortunately, we had great SF NCOs to make it happen: they got him in and out and none of the US leadership on the island had any idea there was an SF general officer on the island and that we were breaking the rules. I wonder if his language training will serve him well where he is now. After all he does speak two languages: 7.62 and 5.56. He will be missed but never forgotten.

14. TikTok, Twitter held talks about sale of popular video app, says report

CNET · by Edward Moyer · August 8, 2020

That would have been quite a marriage. While China would collect data for nefarious purposes, Twitter would gather data that would be a boon for advertisers.

15. US response to the virus is met with incredulity abroad

AP · by Nicole Winfield & Lisa Marie Pane · August 9, 2020

We could get ourselves isolated. Countries getting the virus under control will not want Americans traveling. In my non-scientific analysis I think international travel will likely be the reason why this virus survives and will have the opportunity to evolve (mutate) to get stronger. And if ever there were a need for a global approach to a security problem (that is also a public health problem), it would seem to be this virus. We have not been talking much about the national security impact of this pandemic. Yes, our economic instrument of power is being severely impacted and, while it appears the military has done a good job trying to contain the virus, I understand that in places like Afghanistan our forces are very vulnerable. I saw one comment – but I have no evidence – that said half the Afghan population has or had the coronavirus. This could have significant impact on the US military.

16. MDO and the nuclear elephant in the room

Real Clear Defense · by Jeremiah Rozman · August 8, 2020

Back to Cold War nuclear defense training? Can we fight through a nuclear, chemical, or biological environment?

But the author challenges two key multi-domain operation assumptions.

17. The China challenge and America's founding principles

Real Clear Politics · by Peter Berkowitz · August 8, 2020

A very powerful conclusion. All Americans should reflect on the questions in the concluding paragraph.  The answers to those questions will determine our way forward and not just toward China.

18. Red Dawn 2012 remake tainted Sony and MGM in China for years

Bleeding Cool · by Rich Johnston · August 8, 2020

Sony and MGM should be ashamed of themselves for this. But everyone needs to learn from this. China is seeking to wield great cultural influence over us (and the world) through entertainment – both in movies and video games. Most of the people who read my messages are not video game players but much of our youth is decisively engaged in video games and the narratives that are developed by the dominant game designers are really influenced behind the scenes by China and very subtly executed.  Again, we do not observe this since we do not play these video games.

19. Long before Zoom, British soldiers used technology to stay connected during World War II

Washington Post · by Sophie Atkinson · August 9, 2020

Some fascinating history.

As an aside: before cell phones and the internet, our communications sergeants would set up calls home through ham radio operators while we were deployed.

20. Traditional Chinese conceptions and approaches to secrecy, denial, and obfuscation

Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 64, No. 1 · by Ralph D. Sawyer · March 2020

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."

- William James

"History teaches us that wars begin when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap."

- Ronald Reagan

"In this sad world of ours sorrow comes to all and it often comes with bitter agony. Perfect relief is not possible except with time. You cannot now believe that you will ever feel better. But this is not true. You are sure to be happy again. Knowing this, truly believing it will make you less miserable now. I have had enough experience to make this statement."

 - Abraham Lincoln

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. China's rise forges new bond between Japan and Five Eyes

2. For whom the tok tiks

3. DOE RFI for Trump executive order on bulk-power system grapples with national security implications of evolving U.S. electrical grid

4. GOP rep calls on DOJ to investigate international court for ties to terror

5, Why Taiwan is at the heart of a microchip struggle

6.  The problem with allies: it's time to unfriend a few countries

7. The fragile republic: American democracy has never faced so many threats all at once

8. US troops should withdraw from Syria, not protect oil companies

9. Defense personnel to get a crash course in OpSec

10. U.S. allies tighten alliance to contain China's maritime expansion

11. Tensions mount over China's industrial espionage in U.S.

12. Russia continues interfering in election to try to help Trump, U.S. intelligence says

13. Special ops nominee grilled over charge his firm may have trained Khashoggi's killers

14. Mail carriers deliver medicine and mail till dark, thanks to COVID-19

15. How does the U.S. Army expect to hide a giant warehouse full of weapons from China?

16. Fort Hood commander's transfer on hold amid investigations

17. 'People give limbs so we stay free:' Green Beret amputee vet describes Purple Heart's meaning

1. China's rise forges new bond between Japan and Five Eyes

Nikkei Asian Review · by Wajahat Khan & Masaya Kato · August 7, 2020

So will it be Six Eyes?  Will the UK join TPP?

2. For whom the Tok Tiks

Defense One · by Ina Bogost · August 7, 2020

A lot of cute titles today.

3. DOE RFI for Trump executive order on bulk-power system grapples with national security implications of evolving U.S. electrical grid

Foley · by Jeffery R. Atkin et al. · July 14, 2020

Our electrical grid is vulnerable.

4. GOP rep calls on DOJ to investigate international court for ties to terror

Newsweek · by Aila Slisco · August 7, 2020

I hope this does not blow back on us.

5. Why Taiwan is at the heart of a microchip struggle

Asia Times · by Marshall Auerback · August 8, 2020

But that gunboat needs the technology.

6. The problem with allies: it's time to unfriend a few countries

American Spectator · by Doug Bandow · August 8, 2020

Please do not share this with the President. Doug Bandow provides the blueprint for total retrenchment.  I worry the President will hire Bandow as a security adviser in his second term to implement this plan.

I could not disagree more with Bandow. Alliances are key to our national security, our economic security, and our ability to project power and build coalitions to protect US national interests.

That said, it is fair to continually assess our alliance structure and to adjust as necessary based on US national interests. But our alliances should be based on shared interests, shared values, and shared strategy toward mutual security. This blueprint throws the baby out with the bathwater and will put US national security at great risk.

7.  The fragile republic: American democracy has never faced so many threats all at once

Foreign Affairs · by Suzanne Mettler & Robert C. Lieberman · August 7, 2020

Our federal democratic republic.  As Ben said, "It's a republic, if you can keep it."

8. US troops should withdraw from Syria, not protect oil companies

Defense One · by Daniel L. Davis · August 7, 2020

I am reminded of a George Carlin monologue (I think from the album, "Class Clown"): The middle two words of industry are "US" and it is to job of the military to protect industry.

9. Defense personnel to get a crash course in OpSec

Defense One · by Lindy Kyzer · August 7, 2020

10. U.S. allies tighten alliance to contain China's maritime expansion

Chosun Ilbo · by VOA News · August 7, 2020

Containment?

11. Tensions mount over China's industrial espionage in U.S.

Chosun Ilbo · by VOA News · August 7, 2020

Korea should also be very worried about this as well. It is a prime target for Chinese industrial espionage.

12. Russia continues interfering in election to try to help Trump, U.S. intelligence says

New York Times · by Julian E. Barnes · August 7, 2020

This is not going away. We cannot keep our head buried in the sand.

13. Special ops nominee grilled over charge his firm may have trained Khashoggi's killers

Military.com · by Richard Sisk · August 6, 2020

I do wonder how the Senate will act on this. It did not look good for him.

14. Mail carriers deliver medicine and mail till dark, thanks to COVID-19

Tampa Bay Times · by Rose Wong · August 7, 2020

Respect for our great American mail carriers.

15. How does the U.S. Army expect to hide a giant warehouse full Of weapons from China?

Forbes · by David Axe · August 7, 2020

16. Fort Hood commander's transfer on hold amid investigations

ABC News · by Lolita C. Baldor · August 7, 2020

17. 'People give limbs so we stay free:' Green Beret amputee vet describes Purple Heart's meaning

American Military News · by Ryan Morgan · August 7, 2020

"Nonviolent action involves opposing the opponent's power, including his police and military capacity, not with the weapons chosen by him but by quite different means. Repression by the opponent is used against his own power position in a kind of political "ju-jitsu" and the very sources of his power thus reduced or removed, with the result that his political and military position is seriously weakened or destroyed."

- Gene Sharp

'If [people] cannot think well, others will do their thinking for them.'

- George Orwell

"OLD SF"

"Yep, it was a simpler time in many ways. No computers, no risk assessment process, team sergeants wrote training schedules and ran teams for many years (not just two), no interpreters, no velcro, no gortex, no optics on guns, no body armor or high speed helmets, no CONOPs, no Powerpoint, no warrant officers (LTs were there to carry the generator and learn before they took a team as a CPT), no career path, no officer or NCO branch to hide people in, we had our own flight det in the Groups, we wore no-shit LBE with butt packs, and we just made shit happen. Now there were some differences too that folks now wouldn't like. We did formations...PT, morning at 0900 often, sometimes at 1300. We occasionally did Company, Bn, and Group runs. We wore berets in garrison and either patrol caps or boonie hats in the woods (or a drive on rag while patrolling if appropriate). We did isolation. We did a lot of SL night CE jumps, and under some commanders that's all we did, but we were good at it. We had field pants and cold weather gear made of wool, and sleeping bags made of down. We didn't have the ammo they have today, but we used what we had wisely. We did SQT tests and certification. There was only jump pay...$55, then $83, then $110 I think, and MFF/SCUBA pay. No SDAP, Lang pay, demo pay, or huge bonuses. We had no specialized gear...when I got to an ODA I think they issued ma a VS-17 panel, strobe light, snap link, sling rope, and a compass, and a couple of more things like a GP net from PBO. Damn, those were some great times....We were expected to do anything, anytime, anyplace with nothing other than our wits, creativity, and drive. And we did. And we did it with great NCO leadership from the Vietnam era guys who did the exact same thing before we stepped in."

-Chris Zets

(some of us grew up in this era)

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Trump says he will make deals with N.K. very quickly if reelected

2. Don't use U.S. troops as bargaining chips

3. Around 10 countries yet to submit final report on N.K. workers to U.N.: document

4. Washington: GSOMIA is critical to U.S. security interest

5. North Korea crypto hackers: UN revelation

6. North Korea reportedly using altcoins to convert $1.5B in stolen funds to cash

7. Moon's chief of staff, five senior aides offer to resign

8. N.K. artillery attack on S. Korea could cause more than 200,000 casualties: U.S. think tank

9. North Korea publicly executes six for sex trafficking, including four officials

10. Kim Jong Un rolls up to village devastated by floods in luxury SUV

11. North Koreans scavenge in remains of blown-up Liaison Office

12. North Korea threat: satellite footage of Kim Jong-un's secretive base sparks nuclear panic

13. Un embarrassing failure: Trump's threat-followed-by-love-letter diplomacy with North Korea has been disastrous

1. Trump says he will make deals with N.K. very quickly if reelected

Yonhap News Agency  · by Lee Haye-ah · August 8, 2020

Let me give you my worst-case analysis.

Based on President Trump's anti-alliance worldview (unless there is a positive transactional relationship for the US), I can see him trying to solve the Korea problem in the US favor once and for all: I can see him willing to make the deal to trade US troops in Korea for ICBMs and some level of nuclear weapons. Given the confluence of events - the SMA negotiation stalemate, the President 's belief the US is getting ripped off for defending South Korea, his stated desire to bring home US troops - he could offer up this concession to protect the US homeland by removing the ICBM threat. In addition, given President Moon's unwavering commitment to engagement with North Korea to implement his peace vision, I can see the President lifting sanctions (or trying to do so, as the UN and US Congress have the say in that), saying that it is time to let Koreans solve the Korean problem, that he supports President Moon's peace strategy, and that he will get out of the way to let him try to achieve it. This could be the basis of a "very quick deal."

Of course, making such a deal would be a victory for Kim Jong-Un and his long con. He will have achieved major objectives of his strategy: sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear weapons and removal of US troops from the peninsula. If this series of events were to happen, we can expect conflict in the very near future after the withdrawal of US troops, which of course will have global impact, with at least a severe economic impact on all Americans.

I know the President's national security advisers will do everything to prevent this outcome (as will some of our Korean allies - though there will be some Koreans who will support this path even though the existential threat to Korea will remain) and will continue to advise against this course of action. But, we must consider the President's words and actions as well as our interpretation of his worldview (I hope to be proven wrong in this analysis). 

2. Don't Use U.S. Troops as Bargaining Chips

Bloomberg · by Editorial Board · August 7, 2020

Yes, our force posture must be based on how to optimize our forces, their capabilities, and their locations to support our National Defense Strategy, which includes support to our alliance commitments (our national security and defense strategy acknowledges how important our alliance structure is to US national security).

We should acknowledge that South Korea has given the US a huge gift for US strategic flexibility and agility with construction of the largest US military base outside of the US (South Korea funded 93% of the $10.7 billion cost) – not only through a state-of-the-art base, but through a strategic base sitting in a location between a seaport of embarkation (SPOE – the Port of Pyeongtaek) and an air port of embarkation (APOE – Osan Air Base). While the consolidation of most of US ground forces in a single location may not be tactically sound in the face of missile threats from North Korea, it makes great sense in terms of a strategic force projection platform and an intermediate staging base for forces from CONUS to deploy throughout the Indo-Pacific for contingency operations. Of course, this base poses political issues with our Korean allies who think it could be used for war with China, but we should instead think about strategic deployment capabilities in support of other contingencies as well as training and engagement with other allies in the INDOPACFIC.

But. the bottom line is we should not use US troops as a bargaining chip. We need to think about how the location of US troops supports the US national defense strategies. And it would also be good if we could correct a major strategic error by re-joining the Transpacific Partnership (though I fear that ship has already sailed).

3. Around 10 countries yet to submit final report on N.K. workers to U.N.: document

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · August 8, 2020

It seems like the leaked UN report has been making the rounds. It would be useful if the UN just released it to the public rather than leak it to a few media outlets, causing us to have to read the media’s interpretations of it. It is difficult to tell what is circular reporting and what is based on an actual reading of the report.

4. Washington: GSOMIA is critical to U.S. security interest

Dong-A Ilbo · by Ji-Sun Choi · August 8, 2020

GSOMIA is critical to the security of the ROK, Japan, and the US – both through direct implementation and execution as well as the broader trilateral relationship, which is critical to address both the North Korean threat and other challenges in Northeast Asia, e.g. China. Recall that China demanded a concession from South Korea that not only would it not allow any more THAAD deployments but also not participate in an integrated missile defense system or a trilateral alliance of the ROK, Japan, and US. Why do we think that is? Because a trilateral alliance will hinder the ability of China to wield dominating influence in the region. The question for the ROK and US: will historical issues (which are tragic) take precedence of economic and national security?

5. North Korea crypto hackers: UN revelation

Asia Times · by AT Contributor · August 7, 2020

It appears like this leaked report is covering a lot of ground based on the information that the media is reporting.

6. North Korea reportedly using altcoins to convert $1.5B in stolen funds to cash

Coin Telegraph · by Mohammad Musharraf · August 7, 2020

For the cyber and crypto currency experts: is there a way to block, interdict, or somehow exploit these actions?

7. Moon's chief of staff, five senior aides offer to resign

Korea Herald · by Yonhap · August 7, 2020

8. N.K. artillery attack on S. Korea could cause more than 200,000 casualties: U.S. think tank

Yonhap News Agency · by Lee Haye-ah · August 8, 2020

I think this is the report to which Yonhap is referring.

9. North Korea publicly executes six for sex trafficking, including four officials

Radio Free Asia · by Eugene Whong · August 6, 2020

More examples of the evil nature of the Kim family regime. And think about the hypocrisy of Kim Jong-Un (like his father and grandfather), who is "allowed" (by his own authority) to have his "pleasure squads.”

10. Kim Jong Un rolls up to village devastated by floods in luxury SUV

New York Post · by Lia Eustachewich · August 7, 2020

11. North Koreans scavenge in remains of blown-up Liaison Office

Daily Mail · by Julian Ryall · August 7, 2020

12. North Korea threat: satellite footage of Kim Jong-un's secretive base sparks nuclear panic

Express · by Oli Smith · August 7, 2020

There is no doubt the regime continues to develop nuclear weapons and its nuclear infrastructure continues to operate. But there is no need for panic.

13. Un embarrassing failure: Trump's threat-followed-by-love-letter diplomacy with North Korea has been disastrous

Daily News · by Daily News Editorial Board · August 8, 2020

Cute title.

Yes, President Trump has practiced unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy. Of course, there is only one measure of effectiveness - denuclearization of the North. So there has been no denuclearization, but we should have learned some very useful lessons from the past two years that can help with the way ahead. Second (and most important), we have created an environment of tremendous pressure on Kim Jong-Un inside Pyongyang (of course, he has helped by raising expectations that he could play Moon and Trump). Kim's failure to effectively play both Presidents has made him vulnerable inside Pyongyang. In addition, our steadfast refusal to give concessions in the form of sanctions relief is helping chip away at the effectiveness of the regime's blackmail diplomacy strategy. In time, Kim is going to be put in a position where he will have to change his strategy or be subject to increasing internal pressure. So, yes – we have not successfully denuclearized the North. But Kim Jong-Un has been the real failure, and this fact will either have devastating consequences for him or will force him to change his policy and strategy.

We need to continue to counter his long con by playing our long game.

"Nonviolent action involves opposing the opponent's power, including his police and military capacity, not with the weapons chosen by him but by quite different means. Repression by the opponent is used against his own power position in a kind of political "ju-jitsu" and the very sources of his power thus reduced or removed, with the result that his political and military position is seriously weakened or destroyed."

- Gene Sharp

'If [people] cannot think well, others will do their thinking for them.'

- George Orwell

"OLD SF"

"Yep, it was a simpler time in many ways. No computers, no risk assessment process, team sergeants wrote training schedules and ran teams for many years (not just two), no interpreters, no velcro, no gortex, no optics on guns, no body armor or high speed helmets, no CONOPs, no Powerpoint, no warrant officers (LTs were there to carry the generator and learn before they took a team as a CPT), no career path, no officer or NCO branch to hide people in, we had our own flight det in the Groups, we wore no-shit LBE with butt packs, and we just made shit happen. Now there were some differences too that folks now wouldn't like. We did formations...PT, morning at 0900 often, sometimes at 1300. We occasionally did Company, Bn, and Group runs. We wore berets in garrison and either patrol caps or boonie hats in the woods (or a drive on rag while patrolling if appropriate). We did isolation. We did a lot of SL night CE jumps, and under some commanders that's all we did, but we were good at it. We had field pants and cold weather gear made of wool, and sleeping bags made of down. We didn't have the ammo they have today, but we used what we had wisely. We did SQT tests and certification. There was only jump pay...$55, then $83, then $110 I think, and MFF/SCUBA pay. No SDAP, Lang pay, demo pay, or huge bonuses. We had no specialized gear...when I got to an ODA I think they issued ma a VS-17 panel, strobe light, snap link, sling rope, and a compass, and a couple of more things like a GP net from PBO. Damn, those were some great times....We were expected to do anything, anytime, anyplace with nothing other than our wits, creativity, and drive. And we did. And we did it with great NCO leadership from the Vietnam era guys who did the exact same thing before we stepped in."

-Chris Zets

(some of us grew up in this era)