News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.         

1. How the US Can Prevent the Next 'Cyber 9/11'

2. Pentagon chief expresses concern to Chinese counterpart about Beijing's activity in South China

3. Ongoing Defense Department Reforms Align With National Defense Strategy

4. NSA Releases Guidance on Limiting Location Data Exposure

5. America should learn from Australia on China, says key US Congressman

6. SOLIC Nominee Faces Questions On Khashoggi Killing, Social Media Posts

7. After The F-35's Success, The Army Wants Uniforms That Are Invisible To Radar

8. A Mix of Optimism and Pessimism for Security of the 2020 Election

9. US mulls moving troops from Germany to Romania, Baltics and Poland, Esper says

10. US special ops orders inflatable satellite antennas

11. NYT Quietly Scrubs Chinese Propaganda

12. Locsin, Pompeo discuss US policy shift in South China Sea

13. US-China relations: Trump administration’s Chinese advisers could create more uncertainty, observers say

14. An Overview of the Risks and Opportunities Faced by Hong Kong’s "International Front Line" by Joshua Wong and X

15. Trump advisers hesitated to give military options and warned adversaries over fears he might start a war

16. New York Attorney General Moves To Dissolve The NRA After Fraud Investigation

17. This is What Democracy Looks Like

18. The intriguing military origins of the term 'special operator'

19. Apparently The Captain Of The Navy's 6th Fleet Flagship Pulls Security Duty

1. How the US Can Prevent the Next 'Cyber 9/11'

Wired · by Justin Sherman

We should not consider "Cyber 9-11" hyperbole.

2. Pentagon chief expresses concern to Chinese counterpart about Beijing's activity in South China

Reuters · by Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart · August 6, 2020

Talking and engagement is good. (and tough, frank, and blunt talk is necessary)

3. Ongoing Defense Department Reforms Align With National Defense Strategy

defense.gov

Despite POTUS rhetoric we must assure our allies that the force posture reviews we are conducting should be viewed through the lens of optimizing that posture to support our National defense strategy.

4. NSA Releases Guidance on Limiting Location Data Exposure

us-cert.cisa.gov

The two documents can be accessed at these links:

Limiting Data Exposure  

Privacy and Mobile Device Apps 

We need a whole of society approach to cyber civil defense and cyber hygiene.  We all must consider it our civic duty to protect the networks we belong to.

5. America should learn from Australia on China, says key US Congressman

The Age · by Farrah Tomazin · August 6, 2020

We should be willing to learn and apply lessons from anyone or any nation.

6. SOLIC Nominee Faces Questions On Khashoggi Killing, Social Media Posts

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

I watched the hearing and especially the exchanges on this topic.  It did not look good for him.  I was surprised there were no comments about the importance of the Leahy Amendment and human rights vetting and how important that is for SOF engagements and training.  I thought for sure a Senator would draw that parallel. I wonder if this is going to cause some Senators to rethink their support.

As an aside, I have never heard the "SOF enterprise" used so many times in one briefing or hearing.  The constant reference to it was distracting and frankly in my opinion does not sound good.  I guess it is a modern buzz phrase but it sounds too much like business.  But that is just me.  I guess this is the way to refer to the special operations command and the special operations community.

7. After The F-35's Success, The Army Wants Uniforms That Are Invisible To Radar

The National Interest · by Michael Peck · August 6, 2020

8. A Mix of Optimism and Pessimism for Security of the 2020 Election

darkreading.com· by Kelly Jackson Higgins · August 6, 2020

We need more optimism and less pessimism. 

9. US mulls moving troops from Germany to Romania, Baltics and Poland, Esper says

Stars and Stripes · by John Vandiver · August 6, 2020

10. US special ops orders inflatable satellite antennas

c4isrnet.com · by Nathan Strout · August 6, 2020

"Be advised: the H-250 microphone is not inflatable" (I had a commander who used to say that on the radio every time someone keyed the mike and  blew into it before than transmitted anything)

11. NYT Quietly Scrubs Chinese Propaganda

freebeacon.com · by Yuichiro Kakutani · August 4, 2020

Hmmm....

12. Locsin, Pompeo discuss US policy shift in South China Sea

philstar.com · by Patricia Lourdes Viray· August 4, 2020

13. US-China relations: Trump administration’s Chinese advisers could create more uncertainty, observers say

SCMP · by Jun Mai · August 7, 2020

14. An Overview of the Risks and Opportunities Faced by Hong Kong’s "International Front Line" by Joshua Wong and X

cpreview.org· by Joshua Wong and X · August 6, 2020

15. Trump advisers hesitated to give military options and warned adversaries over fears he might start a war

CNN · by Jim Sciutto

Another bombshell book?  Note the discussion on Korea.

16. New York Attorney General Moves To Dissolve The NRA After Fraud Investigation

NPR · by Tim Mak · August 6, 2020

I saw some comments on social media that this is the beginning of the end of the second amendment.  If that is the case we have some real problems if we are dependent on this kind of an organization to protect a Constitutional right.

17. This is What Democracy Looks Like

bushcenter.org  · Nicole Bibbins Sedaca

I am sure this will turn off many.  But I concur with Professor Bibbens Sedaca.  Protests are part of American history and I would say our culture. It is a fundamental part of democracy. We might not like what some stand for and we certainly do not like the violence, nor should we condone it.  But the larger issue is the importance of being able to assemble and air grievances against the government. And of course, the way to stop protests is not to crack heads but to take the grievances seriously and address them.

18. The intriguing military origins of the term 'special operator'

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

Like most everything in special operations it started with Special Forces.

19.  Apparently The Captain Of The Navy's 6th Fleet Flagship Pulls Security Duty

thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · August 4, 2020

Here is a Captain leading the way.  And he has a very impressive resume.  It is amazing the jobs, qualifications and schools he has.  He has to be among the most elite in the Navy.  And to pull watch like his sailors while symbolic is a testament to leadership adage you have to be willing to do anything you ask of your men/women.

Bravo Zulu.

------------------

"The first great center of area studies in the United States was not located in any university, but in Washington,"

-McGeorge Bundy, onetime dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University and then president of the Ford Foundation, observed in 1964. The OSS, he said, was "a remarkable institution, half cops-and-robbers and half faculty meeting."

"Where there is power, there is resistance."  

- Michel Foucault

"It is easier to resist at the beginning than at the end."

-  Leonardo da Vinci

"What an astonishing thing a book is. It's a flat object made from a tree with flexible parts on which are imprinted lots of funny dark squiggles. But one glance at it and you're inside the mind of another person, maybe somebody dead for thousands of years. Across the millennia, an author is speaking clearly and silently inside your head, directly to you. Writing is perhaps the greatest of human inventions, binding together people who never knew each other, citizens of distant epochs. Books break the shackles of time. A book is proof that humans are capable of working magic."

- Carl Sagan

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. President Moon express regret over N.K. not informing Seoul of dam discharge

2. Gov't Seeks to Punish Anyone Sending Leaflets to N.Korea

3. UN Report Underlines North Korea's Continuing Nuclear Ambitions

4.  North Korea fears information the most, analyst says

5. U.S.-South Korea Military Exercises Stay Digital, as North Korean Threat Grows

6. Video Appears to Confirm Reports of Deadly Blasts in North Korea's Hyesan City

7. North Korea ships massive aid supplies to city with coronavirus scare, despite still claiming no cases

8. South Korean farmers bartering sugar for North Korean booze to bypass sanctions

9. The Repatriation of Ethnic Koreans in Japan: A Project of Deception

10. South Korea's Central Bank Report Exaggerates North Korea's Economic Growth

11. Seoul's 'Central Park' a step closer to reality with opening of Black Hawk Village

12. When Pyongyang says 'peace,' prepare the body bags

13. Commentary: South Korea and the US cannot see eye-to-eye on North Korea

14. Gov't Approves Massive Aid for N.Korea

15. The big lesson from South Korea's coronavirus response

16. Trump should recommence South Korea military exercises

17. North Korea Steps up Its War on COVID-19

18. South Korea approves human trial for Genexine's coronavirus treatment drug

19. US military coronavirus toll rises in South Korea but overall cases low

20. FDD | North Korean Cyber Espionage Campaign Seeks to Compensate for Air Power Vulnerabilities

1. President Moon express regret over N.K. not informing Seoul of dam discharge

en.yna.co.kr · by 이준승 · August 6, 2020

With all due respect to President Moon, he should be making a strong statement denouncing Kim Jong-un's irresponsible actions.  Kim Jong-un does not share President Moon's vision of peace and co-existence. If he did and if he had any respect for South Korea he would have informed the South.  

2. Gov't Seeks to Punish Anyone Sending Leaflets to N.Korea

english.chosun.com

This. Is. A. Mistake.

I am saddened to read this.

3. UN Report Underlines North Korea's Continuing Nuclear Ambitions

thediplomat.com · Bruce Klinger · August 7, 2020

Bruce clearly lays out what most of us believe.

4. North Korea fears information the most, analyst says

upi.com by Elizabeth Shim · August 6, 2020

Greg Scarlatoiu is exactly right about the power information. Video at the link.

5. U.S.-South Korea Military Exercises Stay Digital, as North Korean Threat Grows

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong · August 6, 2020

Someone needs to help this journalist with some facts. This exercise is always a command post computer simulation exercise that does not involve troops maneuvering in the field.  That is how you train the ROK/US CFC HQ and the subordinate component HQ.  Yes, the exercise in March was cancelled because of the coronavirus and that exercise is both a command post computer simulation followed by a field training exercise.  But to say the rank and file soldiers have not experienced combined maneuvers in 2 years is not accurate.  The journalist should ask about the tactical level training that takes place year around.  Perhaps he should have checked with the Combined 2d Infantry Division to ask about their combined maneuver training.  

Yes, there has been some degradation of readiness among the senior commands.  But tactical training at various levels takes place year around.  

What is very correct in this article is a reminder of how President Trump feels about these exercises (when he made the unilateral and uncoordinated decision to cancel the exercise in 2018 he called them ridiculous and expensive).  But what is most important to understand is that the 2 years of cancelations, postponements, and adjustments to the exercise programs has not resulted in any reciprocity whatsoever from north Korea and there has been no change in regime behavior.  What we should conclude from this is that we should no longer sacrifice readiness for the fool's errand of trying to accommodate north Korean demands.  Regardless of what we do north Korea will complain is use it for propaganda purposes.

6. Video Appears to Confirm Reports of Deadly Blasts in North Korea's Hyesan City

rfa.org· by Yongjae Mok · August 5, 2020

Not as bad as Beirut of course but probably due to similar causes: incompetence and neglect.

7. North Korea ships massive aid supplies to city with coronavirus scare, despite still claiming no cases

foxnews.com · by Greg Norman

"Ultra-emergency state" sounds like the double secret probation of crisis management.

I think there must be an outbreak but the north Korean information control measures are still functioning well to prevent us from observing the indications and warnings of such an outbreak/humanitarian disaster.

8. South Korean farmers bartering sugar for North Korean booze to bypass sanctions

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin· August 6, 2020

Sugar for ginseng and liquor. 

9. The Repatriation of Ethnic Koreans in Japan: A Project of Deception

NK Hidden Gulag · by Timothy Goo · August 6, 2020

I had no idea 93,000 Koreans in Japan were returned to north Korea and most originally came from the Southern part of Korea.  This is another story that illustrates the truly evil nature of the Kim family regime.

10. South Korea's Central Bank Report Exaggerates North Korea's Economic Growth

38north.org · by William Brown · August 6, 2020

I do not think there is anyone outside of the Kim family regime who studies and knows more about the north Korean economy than Bill Brown.

11. Seoul's 'Central Park' a step closer to reality with opening of Black Hawk Village

Stars and Stripes · by Kim Gamel · August 6, 2020

My wife and I lived in Blackhawk for four years in the 1990s.

12. When Pyongyang says 'peace,' prepare the body bags

asiatimes.com · by Stephan Haggard  and Liuya Zhang · August 7, 2020

Very interesting analysis.  Hyperbolic headline aside (and I cannot believe Steph Haggard would offer it so it must be from an editor at Asia Times) this is worth reflecting upon.  It is a very useful analysis of north Korean propaganda. I would associate myself with the authors' third hypothesis. 

When I read the title I thought there would be a reference to the Korean War and not only the Armistice negotiations but also the run up to the war.  We should recall before June 25, 2950 the north Koreans ceased all anti-South Korean propaganda and called for talks with the South at Kaesong.  Analysts assessed the north might be ready to end the guerrilla warfare being waged (by both sides).  They were right the north did want to end the guerrilla warfare.  What they got wrong was the north wanted to shift to conventional war.  But alas, this article does not address that but it is something we should keep in mind as to the nature of the Kim family regime and how it negotiates.

13. Commentary: South Korea and the US cannot see eye-to-eye on North Korea

channelnewsasia.com · by Khang Vu

This analysis is wrong.  It is based on press reports and from those in South Korea who have avowedly anti-US bent who make statements in the media but have no idea how the ROK and US collaborate in this working group.  Moon should "reform" the working group before rolling out new north Korean initiatives?  Again, a statement like this reveals a lack of understanding of the working group, its intent and its effectiveness.  Here is my assessment of the working group from a year and a half ago: 

The fundamental issue for South Korea is that it is constrained due to UN sanctions and US law. The South wants to be able to engage without constraint as it did during the Sunshine Policy era when there were few sanctions in place. The working group is not an "approval" authority from the US side to all the South to engage.  But it is the responsibility of the members of the working group to point out issues and prevent South Korea (and in particular ROK banks and financial institutions)  from being put into a bind if they violate UN sanctions or US law.  And the working group has no authority to waive US law.  If the ROK violates the sanctions US law requires action.  Sanctions and US law pre-date the working group. And the only way US sanctions can be lifted is for Congress to change the law.  So it is not the fault of the working group if the ROKG wants to violate sanctions and the working group is not holding back ROK action.  Its members likely only advise on the probable consequences which as an allied partner I think is the right thing to do.  The real problem is the naive engagement and peace strategy of the Moon administration. But it is convenient and politically useful for some in the ROK to simply blame the working group.

14. Gov't Approves Massive Aid for N.Korea

english.chosun.com· August 7, 2020

15. The big lesson from South Korea's coronavirus response

Vox · by Mac Schneider · August 6, 2020

8 minute video at the link.  

As I have spoken with government officials, they mention that the previous MERS (and SARS) outbreaks really made think about preparing for future pandemics. Most governments and bureaucracies do not seem to learn lessons and even if they do they rarely take sufficient proactive steps to be ready for the next time. I still think it was quite a coincidence the ROK government conducted a tabletop pandemic exercise in December.  There was probably no better preparation for the crisis.

16.  Trump should recommence South Korea military exercises

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · August 6, 2020

Ahh.... the press and pundits.  Mr. Rogan could not be more wrong.  First, Ulchi Focus Lens and Uchi Freedom Guardian and now Dong Meng 20-2 have always been combined command post computer simulation exercises and not field training exercises.  Yes, in the past there have been field training exercises conducted incidental to these exercises but these have always been "digital" (at least  the 20 or so I have participated in since the 1980s).

Why is this so?  Because the primary training "audience" is the ROK/US CFC headquarters and its subordinate components and staffs.  A computer simulation exercise allows for more intense training of the commanders and staff to challenge their intelligence systems and communications and decision-making processes.  They can conduct more scenarios and make more mistakes against a "thinking" enemy (humans who play the opposing force) who can challenge the defense plans as north Korea surely will. They could never get this training without the simulation and only by maneuvering troops.  We accomplish the readiness requirements by conducting multi-echelon training is sometime simultaneous and sometimes disaggregated. What is most important is that despite the President's pronouncements about cancelling exercises (he was only referring to Ulchi Focus Lens in August of 2018) tactical "field" training for ROK and US forces has continued year around.

Mr. Rogan belittles combined command post computer simulation training because he has no idea how complex it is to command and control the ROK/US Combined Forces Command and its components.  I recall statements from the past that COIN is the PhD level of war - that is bulls**t.  Campaigning (which is what the ROK/US CFC must do) is the PhD level of war whether it is COIN or major theater war which is what conflict on the Korean peninsula will be.  So the headquarters needs the military equivalent of PhD level education and training and that can only be achieved through computer simulation to allow the commanders and staff to train to the highest level to prepare for real war.

And make no mistake, ROK and US troops get plenty of muddy boots training - "slogging up a wet, muddy hill, finding the enemy under a forest canopy, and destroying him with airstrikes, artillery, and small arms fire" all year around.  But that is not the purpose of the Dong Meng 20-2 combined command post computer simulation training.  And lastly the greatest disrespect we could show that infantryman slogging up the hills in Korea would be to have an untrained and incapable higher headquarters.  Without that well trained higher headquarters that soldier or Marine on the ground will never get the artillery or air support or medevac that he or she may need.  Please Mr. Rogan do some research or talk to some of the professionals at the ROK/US Combined Forces Command to learn the realities of training at all levels. 

17.  North Korea Steps up Its War on COVID-19

thediplomat.com · by Gabriela Bernal · August 6, 2020

Things could really turn bad inside north Korea (if they have not already).

18.  South Korea approves human trial for Genexine's coronavirus treatment drug

Reuters · by Sangmi Cha · August 7, 2020

Keeping our fingers crossed for all vaccine trials around the world.

19.  US military coronavirus toll rises in South Korea but overall cases low

Stars and Stripes· by Kim Gamel · August 6, 2020

20. FDD | North Korean Cyber Espionage Campaign Seeks to Compensate for Air Power Vulnerabilities

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · August 6, 2020

A very important essay from colleague Mathew Ha. 

One interesting point that I am not smart enough to articulate  concerns the F-35.  I have heard air force pilots describe it as a computer with a plane built around it.  It is not about its organic weapons or flying ability. What is unique about the F-35 is its networking capabilities to other aircraft, missiles, ground forces, etc.  I am told it is a "software based" aircraft.  It seems to me that if the nK hackers were good enough they would learn the software capabilities of the systems and try to hack into it to neutralize the computer capabilities of the F-35 and turn it from a smart aircraft into a "dumb plane."  If you can defeat its software there is no need to shoot it down with air defense missiles or other aircraft.  Maybe what is described below is "cyber reconnaissance by north Korea in an attempt to figure out  how to penetrate the F-35 "network" and into the software.  is this an asymmetric approach for Korean air defense operations.  Their missiles and planes cannot effectively defend against ROK and US combined air power, especially the F-35s and F-22s.

-------------

"The first great center of area studies in the United States was not located in any university, but in Washington,"

- McGeorge Bundy, onetime dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University and then president of the Ford Foundation, observed in 1964. The OSS, he said, was "a remarkable institution, half cops-and-robbers and half faculty meeting." 

"Where there is power, there is resistance."  

- Michel Foucault

"It is easier to resist at the beginning than at the end."
-  Leonardo da Vinci

"What an astonishing thing a book is. It's a flat object made from a tree with flexible parts on which are imprinted lots of funny dark squiggles. But one glance at it and you're inside the mind of another person, maybe somebody dead for thousands of years. Across the millennia, an author is speaking clearly and silently inside your head, directly to you. Writing is perhaps the greatest of human inventions, binding together people who never knew each other, citizens of distant epochs. Books break the shackles of time. A book is proof that humans are capable of working magic."

- Carl Sagan

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Trump says N.K. would seek talks if election was not near

2. U.S. is ready to negotiate N. Korea's denuclearization: U.S. envoy

3.  U.S. says N.K. must stop provocations, return to nuclear talks

4. N.K. leader orders special aid for Kaesong on coronavirus lockdown

5. N.K. leader presides over party meeting, orders special aid for Kaesong

6. Ri Pyong Chol: Kim’s New Right Hand Man?

7. 'October surprise' summit between U.S., N.K. unlikely: Moon's adviser

8. Burying their heads in the sand (The Moon Administration and US Troop Reductions)

9. North Korea Has Likely Been Able to Miniaturize Nuclear Weapons for Years

10. North Korea Sends Special Forces to Ryanggang Province Border With China

11. North Korea’s Escalating Virus Response Raises Concerns

12. WHO says North Korea's COVID-19 test results for first suspected case 'inconclusive'

13. Unification minister expresses regret over N.K's release of dam water

14. N. Korea pursues long-range nuclear missiles through 'deliberate testing program': Pentagon official

15. Kim Jong-un fury: North Korea launches attack over ‘bitter regrets’ towards US

16. Trump’s South Korea bashing doesn’t strengthen Xi

17. Laser beam and EMP launchers to fight against drones

18. $10 million in aid to North going to UN agency

1. Trump says N.K. would seek talks if election was not near

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 6, 2020

The single most important metric for President Trump is the promise Kim made not to test nuclear weapons and ICBMs. That is his standard and by that standard, he can say we are doing fine with north Korea.  It is as simple as that.

Paradoxically, this also upsets Kim Jong-un.  He believes he has provided President Trump with a political "win."  Yet he has gotten nothing in return.  He desperately needs sanctions relief not because he needs the money and resources but because he raised expectations among the elite and the military that he could "play" both Trump and moon and execute a long con which was to get sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear weapons.  He has failed to do so and now he is under enormous internal pressure.

Kim Jong-un would only "jump at a deal" if the US lift sanctions.  In fact, Kim will not meet with Trump unless he has an ironclad guarantee that Trump will get sanctions lifted.  The only way we could get a deal would be if we provided significant concessions.  Doing so would set back relations decades as it would provide to Kim that his blackmail diplomacy works and; therefore, he will continue to execute it (raise tensions and conduct provocations to gain political and economic concessions).

2. U.S. is ready to negotiate N. Korea's denuclearization: U.S. envoy

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 6, 2020

Alex Wong stated the facts.  The US has been ready to conduct working level negotiations since June 2018 and the Singapore summit. The US has been ready to talk unconditionally.  It is Kim Jong-un who has prevented any substantive working level negotiations.  This is most likely because he believed, again, that he could "play" Trump and he could get a favorable deal by dealing directly with Trump.

I think it is fair to say the US wants a substantive deal.  The US does not want a deal for a deal's sake. While I think Trump wants a deal, his statement reference the election is telegraphing his belief that a deal is not likely due to the election.  I am certain our professional diplomats will advise that no deal be made unless there are first substantive working level negotiations to work one out. 

The ball is in Kim Jong-un's court.  He has failed his long con so far.  He has not played Trump and Moon to get sanctions relief.  He has not allowed substantive working level negotiations to take place.  We need to play our long game, based on a solid ROK/US alliance and a deterrent posture, providing every opportunity for responsible negotiations but remaining focused on the only real solution to the nuclear threats and the crimes against humanity which is solving the "Korea question."

3. U.S. says N.K. must stop provocations, return to nuclear talks

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 6, 2020

Kim will only stop provocations when he knows they no longer work.  This is one of the most positive aspects about the past two years: the fact the ROK and US have not lifted sanctions.  I know this is a controversial statement but the longer we go without lifting sanctions the more we have a chance to wean Kim off of his dependency on blackmail diplomacy.  We cannot go wobbly or get impatient and lift sanctions in the misguided belief that it will bring Kim to the table and cause him to negotiate responsibly. 

4. N.K. leader orders special aid for Kaesong on coronavirus lockdown

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · August 6, 2020

The regime may be laying the groundwork to finally admit there is an outbreak and they will blame it on South Korea.

5. N.K. leader presides over party meeting, orders special aid for Kaesong

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · August 6, 2020

The buried lede is the establishment of a new department within the Central Committee of the Party "to study and research ways to radically improve the personnel affairs system of the Party." I wonder how this will align with the work of the Organization and Guidance department.  Is something going on?

6. Ri Pyong Chol: Kim’s New Right Hand Man?

38north · by Markus V Garlauskas · August 5, 2020

You do not want to be called number 2 or a right hand man.  You might not survive - ask Jang Song-taek.

Seriously, Kim Jong-un seems to have a plan and it is illustrated, as Markus notes, by the old adage that "personnel are policy."

7. 'October surprise' summit between U.S., N.K. unlikely: Moon's adviser

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · August 5, 2020

Moon Chung-in provides his forecast.  But he is right and his skepticism is well founded because the US is unlikely to give the only concession that would bring Kim to a summit- a guarantee to lift sanctions.

Plus the more we talk about the less likely there can be a "surprise."

8. Burying their heads in the sand (The Moon Administration and US Troop Reductions)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Nam Jeong-ho · August 5, 2020

The author reads the tea leaves and the history and puts together a good circumstantial conspiracy theory based on the last three major withdrawals during the Nixon, Carter, and Bush43 administrations. He puts the onus on the Moon administration to prevent a dangerous withdrawal but criticizes members of the administration such as Lee In-young who says he "holds no views" on reduction or withdrawal of US troops.

9. North Korea Has Likely Been Able to Miniaturize Nuclear Weapons for Years

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · August 4, 2020

The author has a point.  This is a key capability that the north has to achieve so it has certainly been working on it as a top priority.

But what this should give us is absolute clarity as to Kim Jong-un's intent.  He has no plans to give up his nuclear program. This is not a surprise given the nature of the Kim family regime.

10. North Korea Sends Special Forces to Ryanggang Province Border With China

rfa.org · by Sewon Kim · August 3, 2020

1500 Special Forces?  That is quite a number.  Things must be really bad on the border.  There is a lot to consider from this report in terms of potential internal instability.

11. North Korea’s Escalating Virus Response Raises Concerns

TIME.com · by Hyung-Jin Kim · August 6, 2020

At some point the regime will reach the breaking point and it will not longer be able to suppress the information about its coronavirus outbreak.

12. WHO says North Korea's COVID-19 test results for first suspected case 'inconclusive'

Reuters · by Emma Farg and, Josh Smith · August 5, 2020

Who did the WHO test? north Korea or the WHO?

13. Unification minister expresses regret over N.K's release of dam water

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · August 6, 2020

I think a little stronger words describing the regime's irresponsible action would be better than expressing regret.  Again, this action highlights the nature of the Kim family regime and it is not a nature that seeks peace and reconciliation and coexistence with the South.

14.N. Korea pursues long-range nuclear missiles through 'deliberate testing program': Pentagon official

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · August 6, 2020

Good comments from Mr. Mercado.  He rightly points out the north's aggressive testing program.  Too often we focus on tests as "provocations" and for "messaging" and "signaling."  We forget how important these tests are for advancing their programs and sometimes they are conducting tests simply to advance their programs while we look at every test as a message for us (and of course sometimes they are and often serve multiple purposes).

15. Kim Jong-un fury: North Korea launches attack over ‘bitter regrets’ towards US

Express · by Edward Browne · August 6, 2020

Again, no mention of our national security and defense strategies which describe Iran and north Korea as rogue powers.  We should expect our leaders to sue the words of our strategic documents:

"We are rallying the world against the rogue regime in North Korea and confronting the danger posed by the dictatorship in Iran, which those determined to pursue a flawed nuclear deal had neglected."

 "Three main sets of challengers - the revisionist powers of China and Russia, the rogue states of Iran and North Korea, and transnational threat organizations, particularly jihadist terrorist groups - are actively competing against the United States and our allies and partners.

"The scourge of the world today is a small group of rogue regimes that violate all principles of free and civilized states. The Iranian regime sponsors terrorism around the world. It is developing more capable ballistic missiles and has the potential to resume its work on nuclear weapons that could threaten the United States and our partners. North Korea is ruled as a ruthless dictatorship without regard for human dignity. For more than 25 years, it has pursued nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in defiance of every commitment it has made. Today, these missiles and weapons threaten the United States and our allies. The longer we ignore threats from countries determined to proliferate and develop weapons of mass destruction, the worse such threats become, and the fewer defensive options we have."

16.  Trump’s South Korea bashing doesn’t strengthen Xi

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · August 5, 2020

Hmmm.. I suppose this is good news?  

On a serious note when I talk to serious people in Korea they are adamant there is no choice between China and the US.  They are firmly on the US side and not the Chinese side.  But they also say we must respect the difficult position they are in since they are so economically intertwined.

This essay covers a lot of ground and is worth reading.

17. Laser beam and EMP launchers to fight against drones

donga.com · August 06, 2020

I wonder what an EMP launcher looks like.

18. $10 million in aid to North going to UN agency

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Shim Kyu-Seok

----------------------

“The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission.”

- John F. Kennedy

"All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others."

- Douglas Adams

"Wisdom is the right use of knowledge. To know is not to be wise. Many men know a great deal, and are all the greater fools for it. There is no fool so great a fool as a knowing fool. But to know how to use knowledge is to have wisdom."

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.         

1. FDD | Lebanon Is Collapsing and Urgent Reform Is Desperately Needed

2. Navy SEALs cut ties with museum over Colin Kaepernick video

3. Distilling the Essence of Strategy

4. What's Modern About Modern Strategy?

5.  The China Hawks Got It Mostly Right

6. NSA Warns Cellphone Location Data Could Pose National-Security Threat

7. Trump should honor Lee, call Tsai, send Nimitz to Taiwan Strait

8. Arm Taiwan - but Skip the Nukes

9. The Elites Fiddle While America Burns

10. Why are there so many territorial disputes in Asia?

11. Points of Progress: Where women are seeing gains, globally

12. The Coronavirus Is Never Going Away

13. 'We're in for a bad and rocky ride:' Ex-WHO doctor who helped eradicate smallpox predicts COVID-19 turmoil for years

14. The media’s TikTok blindspot

15. China's Rise Is MacArthur's Vindication

16. How Might the Sleeper Agents From “The Americans” Interfere in the Election?

17. Incoming Pentagon official slams the US Navy’s fleet plans as “not a credible document”

18. The Crozier Affair through Chinese Eyes

19. Special operations forces and great-power competition in the 21st century

1. FDD | Lebanon Is Collapsing and Urgent Reform Is Desperately Needed

fdd.org · by Jonathan Schanzer· August 4, 2020

And it will only be made worse by yesterday's tragic explosion.

2. Navy SEALs cut ties with museum over Colin Kaepernick video

navytimes.com · by James LaPorta · August 4, 2020

I am sure we will see new regulations about affiliations with non-military controlled museums (which could have implications for other museums such as the Airborne and Special Operations Museum).

3. Distilling the Essence of Strategy

warontherocks.com · by Frank Hoffman · August 4, 2020

I nominate Frank Hoffman to carry on Colin Gray's legacy.  This is an important essay for those who want to be strategists and think strategically.  Wise words here: "There is nothing guaranteed in the realm of human affairs, but strategists who recognize these considerations will increase the likelihood that their strategy will be “good enough.”

4. What's Modern About Modern Strategy?

warontherocks.com · by Francis J. Gavin · August 5, 2020

Will there be a third edition of Makers of Modern Strategy?

5. The China Hawks Got It Mostly Right

Bloomberg · by Tyler Cowen · August 3, 2020

Spoiler alert: "In other words: The China hawks were right about everything, except how to deal with China."

6. NSA Warns Cellphone Location Data Could Pose National-Security Threat

WSJ · by Byron Tau and Dustin Volz· August 4, 2020

A public service announcement.  We should be paying attention.

7. Trump should honor Lee, call Tsai, send Nimitz to Taiwan Strait

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco, opinion contributor · August 4, 2020

Kind of a clickbait headline - it is not the Lee you might think.

8. Arm Taiwan - but Skip the Nukes

Foreign Policy · by Bradley Bowman, Andrea Stricker · August 4, 2020

From my FDD colleagues.  Can we make the cost of taking Taiwan too high for China?

9. The Elites Fiddle While America Burns

WSJ · by Gerard Baker · August 3, 2020

Quite a critique.  Paradoxically I think both Trump and the Bernie Sanders progressives (any populists) benefit from this line of thinking and analysis.

10. Why are there so many territorial disputes in Asia?

thenational.ae · by Sholto Byrnes · August 4, 2020

Because geography matters.

11. Points of Progress: Where women are seeing gains, globally

The Christian Science Monitor · by Ann Scott Tyson · August 3, 2020

Points of Progress: Where women are seeing gains, globally

12. The Coronavirus Is Never Going Away

defenseone.com · by Sarah Zhang

Pretty depressing analysis. I guess we need to prepare for this new normal.

13. 'We're in for a bad and rocky ride:' Ex-WHO doctor who helped eradicate smallpox predicts COVID-19 turmoil for years

USA Today · by Ken Alltucker

14. The media’s TikTok blindspot

spectator.us · by Stephen L. Miller · August 3, 2020

15. China's Rise Is MacArthur's Vindication

realcleardefense.com · by Francis P. Sempa

This should generate some discussion (and probably some emotions) I am not sure I can make this leap of logic.  What would the use of nuclear weapons against China have accomplished in the Korean War?  Would the National Chinese been able to achieve significant effects?  Would we have a better or worse China today?

16. How Might the Sleeper Agents From “The Americans” Interfere in the Election?

lawfareblog.com · by Herb Lin and Steven Weber · August 4, 2020

I guess we should watch The Americans again to observe for strategy and TTPs.  Everyone living in the DC area has a Jennings family living in their neighborhood.

17. Incoming Pentagon official slams the US Navy’s fleet plans as “not a credible document”

Defense News · by David Larter and Joe Gould · August 4, 2020

18. The Crozier Affair through Chinese Eyes

usni.org · by James Holmes · August 4, 2020

19. Special operations forces and great-power competition in the 21st century

AEI · Hal Brands and Tim Nichols · August 4, 2020

I am afraid the authors have a narrow view of SOF and do not grasp the full range of SOF missions and capabilities.  I sense the same kind of thinking in the post-Vietnam Cold War era when SOF was trying to search for relevance and they are really only viewing SOF through the lens of Afghanistan and Iraq. It pains me when authors discount and minimize the importance of unconventional warfare (only addressed in terms of the "SOF identify crisis") and SOF support to political warfare.  While influence is mentioned it is not sufficiently addressed from a SOF contribution perspective.  Governance is not mentioned at all and while irregular and partner forces are mentioned in the context of "through, by, and with”. there is insufficient discussion of how important this is in the context of great power competition.  And lastly, the idea that a focus on CT allows the USG to focus on other things makes JSOC the economy of force mission.

----------------------

"By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest."

- Confucius

“Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something.”

- Plato

"A man begins cutting his wisdom teeth the first time he bites off more than he can chew."

- Herb Caen

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. 'US to ratchet up pressure on SMA talks'

2. First U.N. report on N. Korea's miniaturization of nuclear warheads

3. Seoul responds to report that Pyongyang 'probably' has miniaturized nukes

4. North Korea increases illegal coal exports, satellite imagery suggests

5.  Nampo: A Tale of Two Ports (north Korea)

6. Top U.S. defense official refers to N.K., Iran as 'rogue nations'

7. S. Korea calls on N.K to cooperate in giving notification of release of dam water

8. N.K. continues to pursue nuclear weapons, missile systems: U.S. commander

9. Two-star general relieved of command over defector's border crossing

10. 'GSOMIA termination may face US backlash'

11. Source: Restrictions on movements nationwide have intensified (north Korea)

12. Life in Pyongyang through the perspective of those who live there

13. Six N. Koreans injured in Hyesan explosions die in hospital

14. Chinese Fishing Near North Korea Is a Symptom of a Bigger Problem

15. GUNTER: The big problem with a nuclear North Korea

16. World War 3: US strike on North Korea to trigger 'worst mass killing in history'

17. Talk of US troop cut reemerges, puts Seoul on edge

1. 'US to ratchet up pressure on SMA talks'

The Korea Times · by Kang-Seung-woo · August 4, 2020

The buried lede: A ROK Government official says they are seeking to reach an agreement after the election.  That is the first I have heard of that.  

While I am sure the President would like to make a deal prior to the election and have the ROK fork over a large sum of money so he can say he made the Koreans pay up I think he will be with simply saying he stood his ground and did not give in to Korea's "low ball" demands.  The sad irony is whether there is a deal or not and if there is a deal with a large ROK contribution or a small one, it will have no impact on the election.  Sure we will see it in campaign ads but whether there is no deal, a big deal, or a small deal will not change the outcome of the election and will not change any votes.

I think the Korean side is reading a little too much into these personnel moves.

2. First U.N. report on N. Korea's miniaturization of nuclear warheads

donga.com· August 5, 2020

Again, this really should not be a surprise to anyone.  This is obviously one of the most important objectives of the north's nuclear weapons programs.  But it will be interesting to see if we get to see the leaked report or if it will be released to the public.

3. Seoul responds to report that Pyongyang 'probably' has miniaturized nukes

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok · August 4, 2020

Again, we should not be surprised. We also should not be over alarmed as that only plays right into the regime's propaganda narrative.  But we also should not down play this either.  A strong statement of a declaratory policy might be in order.  Not fire and fury rhetoric, just a strong statement of US strategic resolve.

4. North Korea increases illegal coal exports, satellite imagery suggests

Financial Times · by Edward White · August 4, 2020

Have to make money for the Royal Court Economy of the Kim family regime.

5. Nampo: A Tale of Two Ports (north Korea)

38north.org · by Peter Makowsky · August 4, 2020

Submarines and coal - no they are not transporting coal by submarines.  I also think the NONGO class ship described below is a surface effects ship versus a special effects ship.

6. Top U.S. defense official refers to N.K., Iran as 'rogue nations'

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 5, 2020

I would expect the Korean press to have paid closer attention. The Admiral is using the terminology in our national security and defense strategies.  The US (and its allies) face the two revisionist powers (China and Russia) the two rogue powers (Iran and north Korea) and the threat from violent extremist organizations.  This terminology is nothing new.  As I have mentioned many times I cannot recall a period in the last 4 decades where senior leaders have referenced the national security and defense strategies more than most all our senior leaders do today.  The Korean press should be well aware of this and the Admiral's use of rogue nation should be no surprise. And more to the point Iran and north Korea fit the definition of a rogue state because they do not behave as responsible members of the international community.  I suppose the Moon administration does not like this terminology since would appear to undercut the peace strategy and engagement desires.  And of course Kim Yo-jong and the regime do not like it either.  But we have to deal with north Korea as it really is and not as we would wish it to be.  This is a rogue nation (and a mafia like crime family cult that seeks to dominate the entire Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State - I know Kim Yo-jong will not like me for using those descriptors).

7. S. Korea calls on N.K to cooperate in giving notification of release of dam water

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · August 5, 2020

See, this is north Korea acting as a rogue nation.  A responsible member of the international community would have provided a warning before opening the flood gates.

8. N.K. continues to pursue nuclear weapons, missile systems: U.S. commander

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 4, 2020

And neither he nor anyone else in the US military and intelligence community are surprised by this. So no one else should be either.

9. Two-star general relieved of command over defector's border crossing

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

No surprise here.  This is the burden of command - you are responsible for all your unit does or fails to do.  And per the article there are likely to be more - probably the entire chain of command down to the company commander and platoon leader.

10. 'GSOMIA termination may face US backlash'

The Korea Times · August 5, 2020

It is back to the future or deja vu all over again.  As noted in the article, this provides South Korea no leverage in relations with Japan. All this does is harm South Korea's reputation and worse, its national security. There is no leverage in cutting off your nose to spite your face.  Backlash from the US? I am sure there are those who will argue if South Korea is uncensored about its national security then why should the US be concerned.  I am sure there will be American officials who will now say, yes let's withdraw some troops since not only won't Korea pay for them they are willing to put South Korean security and those of American forces at risk by withdrawing from the GSOMIA.

11. Source: Restrictions on movements nationwide have intensified (north Korea)

dailynk.com · by Kang Mi Jin · August 5, 2020

More indications of a possible outbreak in the north.

12. Life in Pyongyang through the perspective of those who live there

dailynk.com · by Lee Sang Yong · August 5, 2020

Some interesting insights mostly concerning the coronavirus but some interesting information from three very different types of Koreans from the north.

13.  Six N. Koreans injured in Hyesan explosions die in hospital

dailynk.com · by Lee Sang Yong · August 5, 2020

Note the concluding paragraph.  They just cannot resist the opportunity to turn every event into a propaganda message - comparing the damage to US bombing during the Korean War.

14. Chinese Fishing Near North Korea Is a Symptom of a Bigger Problem

thediplomat.com · by Jenny Town and Sally Yozell · July 31, 2020

Yes, China is complicit in helping the north circumvent sanctions. What incentive does it have to maintain pressure?  Surely it does not want to support the US.  And probably most importantly it does not want to destabilize the Kim regime and allow instability and regime collapse (or war) on the peninsula.

15. GUNTER: The big problem with a nuclear North Korea

Toronto Sun· by Lorne Gunter · August 4, 2020

A Canadian perspective.

I think Kim Jong-un is rational from a north Korean perspective.  I think he is faithfully executing the strategy and vision of the Kim family regime and he is going to act accordingly.  That may seem irrational to us but from the regime perspective it is very rational.  We just have to understand his strategy and vision (he seeks to dominate the entire Korean peninsula).

16. World War 3: US strike on North Korea to trigger 'worst mass killing in history'

Express · by Joel Day · August 4, 2020

That may be the conventional wisdom. But if we assess the north has miniaturized a nuclear warhead, has perfected re-entry capability, and has sufficiently developed missile capabilities to reach the America, the US is going to be faced with a stark choice.  If we have indications and warnings that a miniaturized nuclear warhead is being mated to an ICBM we will only have two options.  One is to hope our ground based intercept system will destroy the ICBM before it reaches the US.  The second is to decide to act self defense and conduct a preventative strike to destroy the missile before it can be launched. Of course people will argue that we cannot know if it is going to be a test launch or an actual strike.  And we will assess it with all the other indications and warnings surrounding it.  But any US president will face a complex dilemma if we observe such a situation.

17. Talk of US troop cut reemerges, puts Seoul on edge

americanmilitarynews.com · by Asia News Network · August 4, 2020

Yes of course Seoul is on edge (perhaps some in Seoul but certainly not all - such as Moon Chung-in and Im Jong-seok).  But not mentioned in the article Korea is unlike Germany in that Congress has imposed restrictions on a drawdown (which can be overcome should the SECDEF consult with our allies and certify to Congress that there will be no harm to US or allied national security in reducing or withdrawing troops).

----------------

"By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, 

which is the bitterest." 

- Confucius

“Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something.”

- Plato

"A man begins cutting his wisdom teeth the first time he bites off more than he can chew." 

- Herb Caen

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

1. 'The biggest monster' is spreading. And it’s not the Coronavirus.

2. Poland agrees to pay almost all costs of US troop presence

3. How can we know if professional military education works?

4. NWC Wargaming: Go big or Go home

5. Trump's revenge - pulling troops from Germany - will be costly

6. Beware the guns of August - in Asia

7. Who is running our universities? Administrators!  

8. COVID-19 and authoritarian regimes: China vs. Russia

9. America in the World

10. There may never be a 'silver bullet' for COVID-19, WHO warns

11. The sad story of superpower America's foreign policy failures

12. A defense contractor died after a bar fight with Marines, and some see a crime

13. Like NATO, but for economic warfare

14. The militia movement's warning of excessive federal power has come true. Where are the militias?

15. Graphic: the American political spectrum, 2020

16. How the pandemic defeated America

17. 'Be a bro': How a commander's sexism derailed this pilot training class - and brought down AETC leaders

18. "A guide to the American way of irregular war: an analytical memoir by Charles T Cleveland"

1. 'The biggest monster' is spreading. And it’s not the Coronavirus.

The New York Times · by Apoorva Mandavilli · August 3, 2020

We have to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time and deal with the pandemic, the economy, national security, and all the other public health threats such as those outlined below.

2. Poland agrees to pay almost all costs of US troop presence

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

Smart political move on Poland's part. But they are not hosting 28,500 (Korea) or 34,000 (Germany) or 50,000 (Japan). When Poland builds the largest US military base outside of the US and pays 93% of the costs I will then be impressed.

3. How can we know if professional military education works?

warontherocks.com · by Megan J. Hennessey · August 3, 2020

How are we doing tactically, operationally, and strategically?

4. NWC Wargaming: Go big or Go home

paxsims.wordpress.com · by Rex Brynen · July 31, 2020

A passionate conclusion: "The Naval War College knows how to go big on wargaming, having done so in the past to global effect. It is time to do so again."

5. Trump's revenge - pulling troops from Germany - will be costly

The Hill · by Dov S. Zakheim, opinion contributor · July 31, 2020

A former DOD Comptroller is probably qualified to speak on costs. I think some would make the counterargument you can pay now to save later. But we know how the save later promise has worked out in the past.

6. Beware the guns of August - in Asia

Foreign Affairs · by Kevin Rudd · August 3, 2020

From Kevin "Barbara Tuchman" Rudd. "Intelligence men learn from their mistakes, and wise men learn from the mistakes from others." One of my favorite quotes.

7. Who is running our universities? Administrators!  

Forbes · by Richard Vedder · August 3, 2020

:-)

8. COVID-19 and authoritarian regimes: China vs. Russia

fpri.org · by Yaroslav Shevchenko · July 30, 2020

An interesting read from an author who is studying in China.

9. America in the World

National Review Online · by Jay Nordlinger · August 3, 2020

Check out the conclusion with the John Bolton quote!

10. There may never be a 'silver bullet' for COVID-19, WHO warns

af.reuters.com · by Michael Shields, Emma Farge

So we have to live with this new normal.

11. The sad story of superpower America's foreign policy failures

The National Interest · by Nikolas K. Gvosdev · July 24, 2020

Is the US swimming faster than the sharks? (see conclusion)

12. A defense contractor died after a bar fight with Marines, and some see a crime

The Washington Post · by Dan Lamothe · August 3, 2020

Another sad story (on multiple levels) in the SOF community.

13. Like NATO, but for economic warfare

defenseone.com · by Anthony Vinci

An interesting concept. 

I proposed a similar concept for the US in Asia.

While new ideas tend to focus on how to organize the military, the other instruments of power should also be considered. Perhaps it is time to think about creating a diplomatic organization in the region to coordinate all diplomatic activities and all information and influence activities to support US strategic objectives. A US Northeast Asia ambassador with the requisite supporting staff organization would provide the diplomatic and information effort necessary to synchronize the elements of national power. A third organization to support the economic instrument of power could be a Northeast Asia Economic Engagement Center. These three organizations would not only bring the strength of the US instruments of power to the region in a new and dynamic way; they would also send a powerful message of commitment, especially if they were located in the right places. The Northeast Asia Command could be located in Korea, the Northeast Asia ambassador in Japan, and the Northeast Asia Economic Engagement Center in Taiwan. Of course, this would create political challenges. However, such a proposal could also enhance the strength and power of the US alliance structure in the region and provide allies with effective tools to compete with the revisionist powers and defend against the rogue powers as outlined in the National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy. These are merely proposals and may not be at all feasible. However, it is time to creatively reexamine employment of the instruments of power to see if the United States can be more effective in achieving its strategic objectives and maintaining and strengthening its alliances in Northeast Asia. (Page 71, https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Cronin_Pathways%20to%20Peace%20-%20Achieving%20the%20Stable%20Transformation%20of%20the%20Korean%20Peninsula.pdf)

14. The militia movement's warning of excessive federal power has come true. Where are the militias?

The National Interest · by Amy Cooter · August 3, 2020

An interesting question. It is fortunate we did not have a Ruby Ridge or Waco at the Portland Federal Courthouse.

15. Graphic: the American political spectrum, 2020

lullabypit.com · by winterSmith · July 30, 2020

Again this is not meant as a partisan message but is intended merely to show one analysis of the political spectrum.  I think this is a very interesting perspective.  

You can view the larger graph at the web page.

16. How the pandemic defeated America

The Atlantic · by Ed Yong

A long read. I do not think the pandemic defeated America. If we are defeated it will be because we defeated ourselves.

17. 'Be a bro': How a commander's sexism derailed this pilot training class - and brought down AETC leaders

airforcetimes.com · by Stephen Losey · August 3, 2020

All the services can learn from this.

18. "A guide to the American way of irregular war: an analytical memoir by Charles T Cleveland"

linkedin.com · by Adam Cobb

An interesting analysis of LTG Cleveland's new RAND report and my recent OpEd. I guess I need to do a follow-up with a little more detail because I obviously did not make myself perfectly clear to this author as his analysis is not quite in line with my thinking.

-----------

"The very massiveness of our intervention actually reduced our leverage. So long as we were willing to use U.S. resources and manpower as a substitute for Vietnamese, their incentive for doing more was compromised."

 - Robert Komer, Bureaucracy At War.

"Nearly all soldiers-and this applies even to professional soldiers in peacetime-have a sane attitude towards war. They realise that it is disgusting, and that it may often be necessary."

-George Orwell, August 1944

"Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything."

- George Bernard Shaw

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

1.U.S. names new envoy for defense cost-sharing talks

2. Most S. Koreans support alliance with U.S. despite tensions: poll

3. Troop withdrawal likely to undermine South Korean public support for alliance with United States

4. N. Korea releases border dam water without prior notice: sources

5.  Bolton worries about Trump pulling troops from Korea

6. North Korea has 'probably' developed nuclear devices to fit ballistic missiles, says U.N. report

7. North Korea has 'probably' developed nuclear devices to fit ballistic missiles - UN

8. Despite maximum pressure sanctions, North Korea's economy grew in 2019

9. How Kim Jong Un won the war over North Korea's nukes

10. Nippon Steel to appeal South Korea asset seizure ruling as case threatens bilateral ties

11. China, S. Korea step up economic ties

12. Samsung to close its last computer plant in China as shipments drop  

13. South Korea and Japan flap could hit Trump's plans on China

14. Military closely monitoring N. Korea amid U.N. report on miniaturized nuclear devices

15. N.Koreans gripped by fears of famine

16. Aid groups forced to borrow money from North Korea

17. Explosions in Hyesan kill nine, injure at least 30

18. Hundreds of Koreans flee as floods trigger landslides, sweep away cars (South Korea)

19. Why a nuclear-free North Korea is a dream that needs to die 

20. The survivor: last Korean war criminal in Japan wants recognition

1.U.S. names new envoy for defense cost-sharing talks

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 4, 2020

I can hear some private conversations in the background.  Since the new envoy is a fluent Japanese speaker the US is shifting focus to burden sharing negotiations with Japan.

2. Most S. Koreans support alliance with U.S. despite tensions: poll

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 4, 2020

Yes, the alliance remains fairly resilient. But there can be no complacency. Yes, the Korean people are worried about a US troops withdrawal.

I also wonder how the anti-Alliance factions in South Korea use this information to try to target certain audiences to weaken support for the alliance.

3. Troop withdrawal likely to undermine South Korean public support for alliance with United States

thechicagocouncil.org · August 3, 2020

The 7 page report with graphs and data can be downloaded here.

4. N. Korea releases border dam water without prior notice: sources

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · August 3, 2020

I can only imagine what the Imjin River looks like now (there are some places we could walk across at low tide (it has tidal effects on the western of part of the river from the Han RIver Estuary)). I recall one year when we conducted a river crossing of the Imjin and it flooded over and we were caught between the river and the DMZ. We were able to maneuver along the south edge of the DMZ to get back to our camp  Greaves - which was north of the Imjin as well) but it was quite tricky as we had to pass through ROK defensive sectors and we did not have prior permission. Fortunately good liaison helped us to overcome the inevitable friction.

5.  Bolton worries about Trump pulling troops from Korea

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

I kind of wish Ambassador Bolton would not make these comments. Some will be opposed to anything he says and will want to do the opposite.

But regarding withdrawal the question is can the SECDEF certify that such a withdrawal will not harm US or alliance security interests? This is required by Congress which has language in the last 3 NDAAs that not funds will be appropriated and authorized to reduce the number of troops below the 28,500 threshold without SECDEF certification that there is no harm to US and allied national security (and consultation with our allies, Korea and Japan).

6. North Korea has 'probably' developed nuclear devices to fit ballistic missiles, says U.N. report

Reuters · by Michelle Nichols · August 3, 2020

This still seems to be alluding to a new report and not the one from March. It says it was submitted on Monday. But it is a significant development if the regime has miniaturized nuclear devices that can be mounted on a missile.

7. North Korea has 'probably' developed nuclear devices to fit ballistic missiles – UN

The Guardian · August 4, 2020

This is obviously one of the most important capabilities the North must develop. If this is confirmed, we are probably at the most dangerous point in history on the Korean peninsula - though "several countries believing" is hardly intelligence confirmation. But I would not underestimate the North and its scientists.

I do expect the regime and its Propaganda and Agitation Department are trying to figure out how to exploit this in its blackmail diplomacy. That of course could backfire if it starts claiming it has this capability. And of course we are faced with the proverbial question, "What do you do not Lieutenant?" My initial counsel: do not overreact, play our long game to beat his long con, execute a superior form of political warfare built on a foundation of deterrence, and seek the (correct) answer to the "Korea question."

8. Despite maximum pressure sanctions, North Korea's economy grew in 2019

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · August 3, 2020

Another argument to give up and accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. I am tired of these pieces but they have traction among some political factions so we must read them.

9. How Kim Jong Un won the war over North Korea's nukes

thedailybeast · by David Axe · August 4, 2020

Here is the problem I have with co-existence (that is all I will focus on in this article/book review). Those who advocate for it assume the regime would be happy with co-existence. I do not believe it would ever be satisfied with co-existence. For the regime it is a zero sum game - the North's existence and the South's non-existence. That said I believe we can cope, contain, and manage the situation while seeking the long term acceptable, durable political arrangement that solves the Korea question thus bringing an end to the nuclear threats against the South and the world and the crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people in the North.

10. Nippon Steel to appeal South Korea asset seizure ruling as case threatens bilateral ties

Reuters · by Yuka Obayashi, Hyonhee Shin · August 4, 2020

For the South Korean legal experts:  Could an appeals ruling overturn the original court decision? And for the Korea-Japan experts, if the decision was overturned would that reduce the friction between Japan and Korea? Would a ruling that simply prevents asset seizure be "good enough" to reduce tension?  E.g., the original decision stands but it cannot be enforced?

12. Samsung to close its last computer plant in China as shipments drop

Forbes · by Donald Kirk · August 3, 2020

In a nutshell: "improve the efficiency of its supply chain amid rising geopolitical tensions."

13. South Korea and Japan Flap Could Hit Trump's Plans on China

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · August 3, 2020

But I do not see the “flap” being sufficiently solved any time soon.

14. Military closely monitoring N. Korea amid U.N. report on miniaturized nuclear devices

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · August 4, 2020

This headline makes it seem like the military was not closely monitoring the north until this new UN report came out. I think it would be a mistake to assume the military and intelligence services (of the South and US) were not monitoring for this key development. As noted even the South Korean 2018 white paper described the possible developments.

15. N.Koreans gripped by fears of famine

english.chosun.com · August 4, 2020

Kim Jong-un's policy choices. Every time we read an article like this we need to be asking how Kim Jong-un could solve this problem for the Koran people in the North? The hardships the Korean people suffer are a direct result of Kim Jong-un's policy decisions. And UN and US sanctions are a result of those same policy decisions. It is not the sanctions that cause the suffering. It is Kim Jong-un's decision making. Yes, natural disasters have a huge effect as does the coronavirus. The international community has long stood ready to provide humanitarian assistance but again it is decision making by Kim Jong-un that hinders such assistance.

16. Aid groups forced to borrow money from North Korea

Financial Times · by Edward White · August 3, 2020

Again it is Kim Jong-un's policy decision that causes this unusual phenomenon. When banks talk about reputational issues that is another indication that they are acting this way and making such an assessment because of Kim Jong-un's policy decisions.  I apologize for continuing to beat the dead horse but I cannot be an apologist for Kim Jong-un's actions)

17. Explosions in Hyesan kill nine, injure at least 30

dailynk.com · by Lee Sang Yong · August 4, 2020

No fire trucks to assist. Investigation quickly concluded resulting in no compensation for losses because the incident was due to "carelessness." And most important of all, authorities are concerned with the safe evacuation of Kim Il-sung's and Kim Jong-il's portraits from people's homes - another opportunity to demonstrate personal loyalty to the regime.

We should note that Hyesan is on the border with China where a lot of smuggling takes place. We have also seen nascent signs of resistance there in the past such as reports of graffiti on regime statues among other low level of resistance.

18. Hundreds of Koreans flee as floods trigger landslides, sweep away cars (South Korea)

Reuters · August 4, 2020

If it is bad in the South it will be worse in the North if they get the same kind of monsoon rains.

19. Why a nuclear-free North Korea is a dream that needs to die

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · August 3, 2020

Is sound policy sacrificing the national security of the US and South Korea?

20. The survivor: last Korean war criminal in Japan wants recognition

Reuters · by Ju-min Park · August 4, 2020

A tragic story on a number of levels but also some fascinating history we do not really think about or study (though we all know the Bridge on the River Kwai).

-----------

"The very massiveness of our intervention actually reduced our leverage. So long as we were willing to use U.S. resources and manpower as a substitute for Vietnamese, their incentive for doing more was compromised."

 - Robert Komer, Bureaucracy At War.

"Nearly all soldiers-and this applies even to professional soldiers in peacetime-have a sane attitude towards war. They realise that it is disgusting, and that it may often be necessary."

-George Orwell, August 1944

"Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything."

- George Bernard Shaw

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.         

1. Hong Kong issues arrest warrant for U.S. citizen under new national security law

2. Where the System May Break (Election Wargame)

3. How ISIS Made Money on Facebook

4. 75 years after atomic bombs fell on Japan, these authors say there's more to the story

5. The Worm is in the Fruit: A Rising Strategic Foe Inside NATO

6. Retired general appointed to Trump administration in position that won't require confirmation

7. Sending Special Operations Forces into the Great-Power Competition

8. 30 years after our 'endless wars' in the Middle East began, still no end in sight

9. Security for Whom? The Case for a Decolonial IR

10. WHO calls COVID-19 'once-in-a-century health crisis'

11. 'Clean Up This Mess': The Chinese Thinkers Behind Xi's Hard Line

12. Army Guard begins to reorganize force into eight divisions to prepare for possible fights with Russia and China

13. Watch: Chinese scientist claims Covid-19 started in 'military lab' after fleeing to US

14. US Strategic Command now analyzes daily deterrence risks for all combatant commands

15. Debate begins for who's first in line for COVID-19 vaccine

16. Washington isn't listening to the Air Force and Space Force

17. Chinese Propaganda Campaign Blames Pandemic on U.S. Army Facility Closed in 1969

18. Army's Top General Says He's Reassured Allies That US Troops Will Stay Out of Policing

19. Managing Chaos: Biosecurity in a Post-COVID-19 America

20. Operation Burnham: the New Zealand military's self-inflicted wounds will not heal by themselves

1. Hong Kong issues arrest warrant for U.S. citizen under new national security law

CNBC · by Eric Baculinao and Adela Suliman · August 2, 2020

I am surprised it took this long.  I fear for all US citizens in Hong Kong.

2. Where the System May Break (Election Wargame)

defenseone.com · by David Frum · July 31, 2020

Every government official, federal, state, and local should be committed to ensure the integrity of our election system.  This should not be a partisan issue (but I know that is a naive thought).

3. How ISIS Made Money on Facebook

defenseone.com · by Jenna Scatena

Follow the money.  I just did not think you would have to follow-it on Facebook.

4. 75 years after atomic bombs fell on Japan, these authors say there's more to the story

dailynews.com · by Stuart Miller · August 2, 2020

Interesting review essay of some new books.  Some interesting histories.

5. The Worm is in the Fruit: A Rising Strategic Foe Inside NATO

rusi.org · July 31, 2020

Spoiler alert: Turkey.

6. Retired general appointed to Trump administration in position that won't require confirmation

The Washington Post

I guess President Trump really wants BG Tata in the Pentagon.

7. Sending Special Operations Forces into the Great-Power Competition

Small Wars Journal· by Tim Nichols

I am reminded of some of the thinking that took place in the 1980's when SOF in particular SF were trying to ensure relevance.  The author seems to assume the only employment of military forces will be in conventional conflict and he of course wants to have SOF shift focus to support that.  

But great power competition is so much more and there is going to be a lot of conflict and competition below the threshold of conventional combat operations. 

The author does not mention any of the SOF "trinities" and the comparative advantage of SOF.  Irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare and the comparative advantages of SOF in influence, governance and support to indigenous forces and populations to support the national security and defense strategies.

8. 30 years after our 'endless wars' in the Middle East began, still no end in sight

The Brookings Institution · by Bruce Riedel · July 27, 2020

What is the long arc of history bending toward?  More endless war?

9.  Security for Whom? The Case for a Decolonial IR

georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org · by Emma Jouenne · August 1, 2020

Lots of schools of thought in security. Everyone in the security field should be a "gatecrasher."

10. WHO calls COVID-19 'once-in-a-century health crisis'

donga.com ·August 3, 2020

11. 'Clean Up This Mess': The Chinese Thinkers Behind Xi's Hard Line

The New York Times · by Chris Buckley · August 2, 2020

This conclusion quote seems to explain it all:  "Sorry, the goal now is not Westernization; it's the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."

12. Army Guard begins to reorganize force into eight divisions to prepare for possible fights with Russia and China

Stars and Stripes

Are we itching to violate the Princess Bride's admonition and have a land war in Asia?

13. Watch: Chinese scientist claims Covid-19 started in 'military lab' after fleeing to US

nzherald.co.nz

Video at the link. 

14. US Strategic Command now analyzes daily deterrence risks for all combatant commands

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · July 31, 2020

Probably one of the hardest things to do is measure deterrence and risk because it is really based on human psychology and decision making.  We can have the best algorithms and AI but it is difficult to predict what kind of decision, Xi or Putin or the regimes in Iran and north Korea are going to do and to know what really deters them and what is their threshold for pain.  But the analysis must be done (or attempted) even if it is not an exact science.

15. Debate begins for who's first in line for COVID-19 vaccine

AP · by Lauran Neergaard · August 2, 2020

Debate may not be a strong enough word.  When the plans for vaccination are released and the priorities established it will probably generate controversy on a level we have not seen lately

16. Washington isn't listening to the Air Force and Space Force

Defense News · by Col. Keith Zuegel (ret.) · July 31, 2020

I just hope it will listen to the real Space Force and Air Force and not the ones on the Netflix show "Space Force."  That show is the most irreverent satire I have seen in a long time.

17.  Chinese Propaganda Campaign Blames Pandemic on U.S. Army Facility Closed in 1969

freebeacon.com · by Yuichiro Kakutani · August 2, 2020

Yes, but...  Fort Detrick was never closed.  The best propaganda always has elements of truth. Few are going to parse it and note that it was only the offensive bio-weapons lab that was declared closed in 1969.  But the basic idea of the article is on the right track - China will admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations. 

18. Army's Top General Says He's Reassured Allies That US Troops Will Stay Out of Policing

military.com · by Richard Sisk · August 1, 2020

It is interesting that our allies are concerned about this.  But here is the buried lede: "In the Indo-Pacific region, the Army's top priority is developing long-range, precision-fire artillery and missiles to counter China, and securing basing rights from allies for the weapons systems, McConville said."

19.  Managing Chaos: Biosecurity in a Post-COVID-19 America

thestrategybridge.org · by Bilva Chandra and Andrew Gonzalez · August 3, 2020

We need to be conducting the AAR for COVID-19 with the idea that this is a rehearsal for a bio-weapons attack on many levels - look at the strategic effects - crippling our economy - to the tactical and operational issues for our military - can we learn to "fight through" actual attacks in the future?  Our adversaries are looking at this and trying to determine the efficacy of employing biological weapons (probably not a man made COVID attack but biological weapons on some scale if they believe they can achieve. an advantage in support of strategic objectives.

20. Operation Burnham: the New Zealand military's self-inflicted wounds will not heal by themselves

theconversation.com · by Alexander Gillespie

We can all learn from this.

------------------------

"Does what happened keep you from acting with justice, generosity, self-control, sanity, prudence, honesty, humility, or straightforwardness?" 

- Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

"Until you learn to teach yourself you will never be taught by others." 

-  J .F.C. Fuller

"The problem with smart people is that they are used to seeking and finding the right answer; unfortunately, in strategy there is no single right answer to find. Strategy requires making choices about an uncertain future. It is not possible, no matter how much of the ocean you boil, to discover the one right answer. There isn't one. In fact, even after the fact, there is no way to determine that one's strategy choice was "right," because there is no way to judge the relative quality of any path against all the paths not actually chosen. There are no double-blind experiments in strategy."

- Roger L. Martin, Harvard Business Review, June 12, 2014

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Issue of USFK that comes after defense cost negotiations

2. U.S. Arms Control Special Envoy tweets photos of nuclear assets

3. The cycle of retaliation should be broken (Japan - Korea)

4. Commentary: South Korea will outperform many developed economies in this coronavirus downturn

5. UN report: N.Korea continues nuclear development

6. Crisis in 2021? (Korean Peninsula)

7. N.Korea Keeps Earning Illegal Cash for Nuke Development

8. N.Korea Tightens Lockdown

9. Heavy rain pummels central S. Korea; casualties reported in landslides

10. Seven more US troops test positive for coronavirus upon arrival in South Korea

11. New virus cases drop to 23, local infections at 3-month low

12. Donald Trump the deal maker may look to North Korea for US election 'October surprise'

13. Analysis | Why Japan's Feud With South Korea Isn't Going Away

14. Japan Warns Korea over Asset Seizure

15. There Shall Be No God But Kim Jong Un

16. Forced Abortions, Collective Punishment: Here's What Happens to Women Who Try to Escape North Korea

17. Unification ministry denies probe into civic groups targets N.K. defectors

18. Kaesong's civil defense forces in a state of "emergency mobilization"

1. Issue of USFK that comes after defense cost negotiations

donga.com · August 3, 2020

Of course the Koreans are paying close attention to what is happening with troop adjustments in Europe. They are parsing every word for clues about what will happen with US forces in Korea.  They are paying attention to Nate Freier's Army War College report on the Army in INDOPACOM.

2. U.S. Arms Control Special Envoy tweets photos of nuclear assets

donga.com · August 3, 2020

Kim and Xi: this photo is for you.

3. The cycle of retaliation should be broken (Japan - Korea)

donga.com · August 3, 2020

The cycle of retaliation should be broken

4. Commentary: South Korea will outperform many developed economies in this coronavirus downturn

channelnewsasia.com · by Troy Stangarone

I was not expecting to read this.  Good analysis from Troy Stangerone.

5. UN report: N.Korea continues nuclear development

www3.nhk.or.jp

I am not sure which report the NHK is talking about.  Is this the last UN Panel of Experts report or is there a new one that has not been released?

6. Crisis in 2021? (Korean Peninsula)

m.koreatimes.co.kr · John Burton· August 3, 2020

North Korea Organization and Guidance Department: The Control Tower of Human Rights Denial · Robert Collins· 2019

My crystal ball is kind of hazy.  Certainly there could be a crisis.  Your guess is as good as mine.

It is Military First Politics versus policy.  Also, the Byungjin policy ended in 2018. 

Just as an aside, I call your attention to Robert Collins' important analysis here.  This is just an excerpt. There is a lot of detail in Bob's report.

7. N.Korea Keeps Earning Illegal Cash for Nuke Development

english.chosun.com· August 3, 2020

I still have not found the most recent UN Panel of Experts report.

8. N.Korea Tightens Lockdown

english.chosun.com· August 3, 2020

All the indicators seem to be there.  But still no definitive reports on what is happening and of course other than the defector report there has been no admission of an outbreak by the regime.  north Korea i see neither doing an excellent job of suppressing information or its draconian population and resources control measures are really preventing or mitigating an outbreak. Or a combination of both!

9. Heavy rain pummels central S. Korea; casualties reported in landslides

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · August 3, 2020

I wonder how bad it is in the north.  With the hillsides stripped of vegetation the potential for landslides is even greater in the north and they do not need to receive as much rain as is falling in the South.

10. Seven more US troops test positive for coronavirus upon arrival in South Korea

Stars and Stripes · Kim Gamel· August 3, 2020

11. New virus cases drop to 23, local infections at 3-month low

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · August 3, 2020

South Korea is managing.

12. Donald Trump the deal maker may look to North Korea for US election 'October surprise'

SCMP · Eduardo Baptista· August 3, 2020

I doubt President Trump is going to use north Korea for an October Surprise.  To get a deal with north Korea there would have to be immediate sanctions relief and that would set the clock back two decades as Kim's blackmail diplomacy would be completely justified as he would have achieved a key objective in his long con.

But I do hope journalists will keep calling attention to an October Surprise because if/when something happens it will not be a surprise so perhaps that in itself will be a deterrent - if you cannot achieve objectives because they are dependent on surprise then why take the action at all?

13. Analysis | Why Japan's Feud With South Korea Isn't Going Away

The Washington Post · by Isabel Reynolds

This is definitely not good for our linchpin and cornerstone alliances in Northeast Asia.

14. Japan Warns Korea over Asset Seizure

Things may go from bad to worse.

english.chosun.com  · August 3, 2020

15. There Shall Be No God But Kim Jong Un

The National Interest · by James W. Carr · August 2, 2020

The authors are commissioners on the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom. I am happy to see these recommendations such as making human rights an agenda item in negotiations having DRL prioritize north Korean information projects, and to fill the position of the special Envoy for Human Rights in North Korea.

Religious beliefs are very important for the situation in north Korea.  First, they undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime Second, they give the Koran people hope.  Third, religion will be very important during the unification process when the regime is no longer in power and the Juche ideology has been found to be a lie.  Korans in the north will be hungry for faith in some belief and there will be nothing that will provide this better than religion, any religion.

16.  Forced Abortions, Collective Punishment: Here's What Happens to Women Who Try to Escape North Korea

Vice · by Junhyup Kwon

I hate to keep forwarding these tragic and horrific stories. But we cannot let the evil nature of the Kim family regime go unnoticed and unchecked.  And let us think for at least a moment about the suffering that is taking place every day in north Korea and to those who are trying to escape the hell that is north Korea.

17.  Unification ministry denies probe into civic groups targets N.K. defectors

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · August 3, 2020

The MOU doth protest too much.

18.  Kaesong's civil defense forces in a state of "emergency mobilization"

dailynk.com · Jong So Yong ·August 3, 2020

This is what mobilization is all about in north Korea -the civilian population forced to provide rations for the "militia." I guess these militiamen are not minutemen.

---------------------

"Does what happened keep you from acting with justice, generosity, self-control, sanity, prudence, honesty, humility, or straightforwardness?" 

- Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

"Until you learn to teach yourself you will never be taught by others." 

-  J .F.C. Fuller

"The problem with smart people is that they are used to seeking and finding the right answer; unfortunately, in strategy there is no single right answer to find. Strategy requires making choices about an uncertain future. It is not possible, no matter how much of the ocean you boil, to discover the one right answer. There isn't one. In fact, even after the fact, there is no way to determine that one's strategy choice was "right," because there is no way to judge the relative quality of any path against all the paths not actually chosen. There are no double-blind experiments in strategy."

- Roger L. Martin, Harvard Business Review, June 12, 2014

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. The four horsemen of the Apocalypse: populism, nativism, isolationism, and protectionism

2. DHS official whose office compiled ‘intelligence reports’ on journalists and protesters has been removed from his job

3. Pakistani separatist groups unite to target China's Belt and Road

4. The captive mind and America’s resegregation

5. USDA identifies several seeds from mysterious China packets

6. Comparing protest movements

7. Are US cities seeing a surge in violent crime as Trump claims?

8. Let's keep the NDAA focused on defense

9. Duterte says Beijing is 'in possession' of South China Sea

10. Army examining where to base new weapons in Indo Pacific

11. Boeing wins $265 million to build more special ops Chinook helios

12. AFRICOM begins search for new headquarters home

13. Duterte to skip AFP change of command ceremony

14. Black Lives Matter: "We will burn down this system" - Part II

15. Political junkies are killing our democracy

16. Research on voting by mail says it’s safe - from fraud and disease

1. The four horsemen of the Apocalypse: populism, nativism, isolationism, and protectionism

George W. Bush Presidential Center · July 21, 2020

A 25-minute video of Dr. Rice can be found here.

2. DHS official whose office compiled ‘intelligence reports’ on journalists and protesters has been removed from his job

Washington Post · by Shane Harris & Miroff · August 1, 2020

There is no excuse for this. A career official should know better. I have previously forwarded the Church Committee report as a reminder. Although there was no DHS back then, there is no excuse for DHS conducting this kind of intelligence collection on Americans and the press.

3. Pakistani separatist groups unite to target China's Belt and Road

Nikkei Asian Review · by Adnan Aamir · August 1, 2020

An interesting development. It will be interesting to see how China handles this.

4. The captive mind and America’s resegregation

Wall Street Journal · by Andrew A. Michta · July 31, 2020

Is this the only choice? Or can we choose to live up to the ideals of our founding documents, the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution?

I think one major problem is that one partisan tribal faction is grouping all protesters and all people who have grievances or who support solving those grievances into the neo-Marxist narrative group. Those partisans describe the actions of the neo-Marxists as an insurgency. That may be correct, but one of the basic tenets of counter-insurgency is to separate the population from the insurgents. One of the ways of doing that would be to address the legitimate grievances, which it seems the majority of the American population seems to believe exists. But instead, there are those who will use the broad brush to paint all protesters as radicals, rather than recognizing that it is not only the right of the people to assemble to protest their grievances, but that it is an American tradition that should be respected and cherished.  Unfortunately, those in power simply view it as a monolithic threat and act accordingly (and incorrectly), which only fans the flames.

5. USDA identifies several seeds from mysterious China packets

Axios · by Ursula Perano · August 1, 2020

Don't brush this off as a "brushing scam."

6. Comparing protest movements

Korea Times · by Donald Kirk · July 30, 2020

When I was in Korea from 86-88 I remember the smell of tear gas as being quite common.

But I wonder about Don's description of violence in the US.

7. Are US cities seeing a surge in violent crime as Trump claims?

BBC · by Jake Horton · August 2, 2020

Some interesting data to consider.

8. Let's keep the NDAA focused on defense

Real Clear Defense · by Dakota Wood · August 1, 2020

It would be nice, but I think Congress finds the "flexibility" of the NDAA useful to further its agenda.

9. Duterte says Beijing is 'in possession' of South China Sea

Nikkei Asian Review · by Cliff Venzon · July 27, 2020

This seems to me to be logic similar to those who say we need to accept North Korea as a nuclear state.

I do like the chart below that says we have 20 aircraft carriers. Must be including amphibs and counting “flat decks.”

10. Army Examining Where to Base New Weapons in Indo Pacific

National Defense · by Mandy Mayfield · July 31, 2020

Which friends, partners, and allies will allow us to base long range precision missiles? I wonder if any will if we make them pay us to host them. I am pretty sure if we negotiate to base them somewhere, the host nation will probably demand the concession that they will provide no funds to support them since they are the ones assuming risk and since we are basing them there because it serves US interests (as do all our forces in theater).

11. Boeing wins $265 million to build more special ops Chinook helos

Defense News · by Jen Judson · July 31, 2020

The MH-47: one of the best helicopters ever built.

12. AFRICOM begins search for new headquarters home

Stars & Stripes · by John Vandiver · July 31, 2020

13. Duterte to skip AFP change of command ceremony

ABS-CBN News · August 2, 2020

Not really surprised and, as the article notes, not really necessary that he be present for the change of command. Surely it is an indication of how he views the military.

14. Black Lives Matter: "We will burn down this system" - Part II

Gatestone Institute · by Soeren Kern · August 2, 2020

As I have written, there are people who view BLM and antifa as insurgent organizations. Certainly, the author of this piece does. There are four key tasks in conducting counterinsurgency:

1. Deny insurgent sanctuary
2. Deny Insurgent mobility
3. Deny insurgent access to resources
4. Separate the population from insurgents

If we believe that BLM is an insurgency, we should consider the correct application of counterinsurgency principles, the most important being separating the people from the insurgents (and, specifically, the radical leadership). Instead, this author and others (despite weak denials) are lumping all protesters together and want to counter them by such cries as "rule of law" (when they really mean rule by law to maintain their own power). The most important action our government could take right now is to acknowledge the grievances, commit to solving them, and, thus, in taking steps to undermine the radical ideology outlined below, separate the population from the radical leadership. Unfortunately, our current actions are driving some of the population toward the radical ideology.

That said, protesters who are protesting legitimate grievances (of which there are a number of them) also have a responsibility to disavow the ideas below if they are Americans who value individual liberty, freedom, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights. They have a responsibility to separate themselves from the subversive ideology below, and they should be advised to do so. To have any effect, the advice should be respectfully provided while acknowledging that their grievances are respected and understood.

The bottom line is that, based on reports of polls, it seems the vast majority of Americans support solving the grievances of the BLM movement. The vast majority of those Americans do not support the radical ideology below and, if we make it seem as if they do, if we do not respect their right to protest, and – most importantly – if we do not address those legitimate grievances because of our fear of the radical ideology below, then we are in for real difficult times ahead.

15. Political junkies are killing our democracy

The Bulwark · by Claire Potter · August 2, 2020

Reflect before react. Good advice.

16. Research on voting by mail says it’s safe - from fraud and disease

The Conversation · by Edie Goldenberg · July 16, 2020

"Guerrilla Strategy is the only strategy possible for an oppressed people."

-Kao Kang (quoted in Mao's On Guerrilla Warfare)

"Guerrilla war is a kind of war waged by the few but dependent on the support of the many."

-B.H. Liddel Hart

"If historical experience teaches us anything about revolutionary guerrilla war, it is that military measures alone will not suffice."

-Brig Gen S.B. Griffith in the Introduction to Mao's On Guerrilla Warfare, 1961