Against US World Retrenchment

Against US World Retrenchment:

An Interview with A. Wess Mitchell

by Octavian Manea

Download the Full Interview: Against US World Retrenchment

Has Russia really changed? There are some voices that argue the Georgian war was not a game-changer for European security, but highlighted instead the end of the imperial mindset.

Today, I think it is plausible that current Russian elites are less inclined to embark on Georgia-like adventures than they were before, in part because of constrained resources, in part because of the potential that a move like that could mess up the really good deals they've gotten from the reset.

While that argument may be plausible, I think ultimately this would require faith on our part, a faith in the current Russian political elites that they are fundamentally uninterested in continuing the agenda they set out to complete. I am not inclined to put that kind of faith in a regime that has shown its desire to fundamentally revise the European security order - in open violation of almost every major treaty obligation it is party to. It is plausible, but I am very skeptical, because the Russians have seen the game board shifting very much in their favor. I don't think they see the Georgian war as a coda or as a period to that process, but as one of the many instruments at their disposal for accomplishing their aims. The key to understanding Russian behavior is that as a classic revisionist power what Russia wants is low cost revisionism. Russia is not looking for war, especially in the current state -- it would be disastrous. It wants revisionism at the margin. I don't worry about Russia as a resuscitated military power. I do worry about Russia as having a last burst of negative energy. Russia is the dying supernova of the previous order.

Russia doesn't have enough constructive potential to deal with real world power, but it has that last burst of negative energy to create disorder. In this context, the fundamental objective of US strategy, in this part of the world, should be to permanently tie off Central and Eastern Europe as an active security and strategic concern or open the possibility for Russian adventurism in any shape or form. It shows the need not to have a two-tiered alliance and to permanently and fundamentally reassure Central Europe.

Download the Full Interview: Against US World Retrenchment

A. Wess Mitchell is President of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington, where he leads in the conceptual and strategic development of the institute, manages day-to-day operations and conducts research and writing on US-Central European security relations, NATO and the US-Europe-Russia triangle. An expanded view of his thoughts is presented in The Vulnerability of Peripheries.

Octavian Manea is the Editor of FP Romania, the Romanian edition of Foreign Policy.