Beyond the "Hybrid" Threat:
Asserting the Essential Unity of Warfare
by David Sadowski and Jeff Becker
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Beyond the "Hybrid" Threat
Foreword: Idea papers are key inputs in the Joint Futures
Group's development of the Joint Operating Environment (JOE). One of our
recent projects involved a multi-national effort to describe the "hybrid" threat.
In the process of writing the paper, we developed something that took in more
than just the "hybrid" threat. Although we received many favorable comments
on the paper, we felt our audience was a bit limited. We are publishing
in the Small Wars Journal in order to generate a wider debate on this important
topic prior to including any of these ideas in the next JOE.
Excerpt:
If we are to get the future "right" we should return to first principles and
arrive at a better understanding of the context within which wars are understood,
and how adversaries will work within that context to arrange capabilities in time
and space to address their own strategic requirements. Ultimately, the ideas
in this paper must support the Secretary of Defense's intent of re-shaping the culture
of the U.S. Armed Forces into one that is highly adaptive in its organizational
structures, in how it employs the capabilities at its disposal, and in how it conducts
operational campaign design, planning and execution. Through refining the description
of the future threat, we hope to create the correct context that helps force planners
design the future joint force. This imperative applies across all activities
of the Department from relatively small wars to large interstate conflicts, which
will be discussed later in this paper.
So what is a "hybrid" threat? A definition that is too narrow may miss
important features of our emerging future, while a definition that is too wide defines
nothing at all. In the case of the "hybrid" threat though, attempts to define
"hybridity" has led to a "confusion of concepts." Instead of defining the
threat, we propose a description of the threat that is relevant across the entire
range of military operations. That is, any actors' approach to warfare can
be described by the mix of material and cognitive capabilities it
brings to bear in conflict and war. "Hybridity" then, should be seen as a
reflection of this underlying unity of warfare, based on an understanding of the
necessity of applying a mix of cognitive and material elements to succeed. In fact,
the ability to shift among material and cognitive approaches with agility and speed
is both the essence of the future threat, as well as of Secretary Gates' vision
of U.S. Armed Forces that are adaptive in organizational design, capabilities development,
and campaign design and execution. In short, the future threat should not be conceived
of as a category of future warfare that is distinct from other forms of warfare
but is instead the very essence of future warfare itself, and are just as applicable
to friendly forces as to our competitors and adversaries. We propose the following
as a starting point for this description: Future threats will be entities
or movements that continually scan the environment for opportunities, and threaten
to or apply violence to affect the will and psyche of others to achieve their political
objectives.
Download the full article:
Beyond the "Hybrid" Threat
David Sadowski is a senior civil servant with
USJCOM's Joint Futures Group. He has an extensive background in air operations,
strategic and operational planning, information operations and joint concept development
and experimentation. He retired from the U.S. Air Force in the grade of Lieutenant
Colonel in 2004, having served as a Weapon Systems Officer in the F-4E and F-111F,
a NATO Staff Officer at RHQ AFNORTH, Brunssum, The Netherlands, and numerous staff
tours within Air Combat Command.
Jeff Becker is a contracted futures analyst for
with USJCOM's Joint Futures Group, and supports a number of military, strategic
and futures studies, including three editions of the Joint Operating Environment
and other concept development and experimentation efforts in USJFCOM and throughout
the Department of Defense. Mr. Becker has a Bachelor's degree in Political
Science from the University of Iowa, and completed his doctoral coursework (ABD)
in International Studies at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia.
