Consider the Soviet Lessons in Afghanistan
by MAJ Daniel S Morgan
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Are there distinct parallels between the US-Iraq situation and the experience of the former Soviet Union's withdrawal from Afghanistan? If so, before we defy history should not some relevant lessons be considered by US leaders as they grapple with a withdrawal strategy to Iraq?
After six years of conflict with religious-inspired resistance, Soviet public support for Afghanistan waned, military leaders grew weary and cynical, and Afghan resistance increased in strength and willpower. Currently, public pressures for an Iraqi withdrawal are rising and if not carefully managed could result in a similar outcome like the Soviet efforts to "afghan-ize" the Afghan conflict. As US politics push to "Iraq-ify" the problem, leadership should note past withdrawals from counterinsurgencies to ensure a US withdrawal does not set preconditions for an Iraqi collapse and US failure. This paper analyzes Soviet-Afghan withdrawal negotiations and recommends that the US implement an internationally-monitored, regional "compromise and enforcement" negotiations strategy because any publicly announced timetable without provisos to modify or reverse the withdrawal will only accelerate the withdrawal itself and likely lead to civil war in Iraq and result in long term repercussions for US foreign policy.
