News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Exclusive: Coalition calls on Biden to form disinformation task force

2. Putin Just Doesn’t Care - Murder, mayhem—so what? He's trying to make a point. 

3. China Expands Disinformation Campaign to Undermine International Xinjiang Outcry

4. When It Comes to Political Warfare, China is at the Head of the Class

5. Russia’s Sputnik V Skews Stats to Falsely Trash Pfizer Vaccine

6. 'Ghostwriter' disinformation campaign rages on as Biden prepares for NATO trip

7. Chinese workers allege forced labor, abuses in Xi’s ‘Belt and Road’ program

8. Facebook says it removed the internet's 12 most prominent anti-vaxxers. 10 are still on the social network.

9. Biden leaves China a Xinjiang terrorism problem with US exit from Afghanistan

10. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker - Late April Trends (link to complete roll-up)

11. Opinion: Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative

12. Biden’s first 100 days on the global stage were the easy part

13. Pentagon chief calls for ‘new vision’ for American defense

14. State Briefing on SECSTATE Trip to the G7

15. Biden’s Foreign Policy Takes a Back Seat to Domestic Priorities

16. Senate Intel leaders say mysterious directed energy attacks appear to be increasing

17. How a brutal assault led a woman to one of the CIA's most valuable Russian spies

18. Davidson, handing INDOPACOM’s reins to Aquilino, takes one last jab at China

19. Secretary of Defense Remarks for the U.S. INDOPACOM Change of Command

20. FBI and CIA are urged to boost intel gathering on foreign White supremacist groups

21. He mentored decades of Army Rangers. At 94, he’ll receive the Medal of Honor.

22.  As counterterror missions fade, special operations finds time to fix its own problems

23. Nathan Chapman: Remembering the first US soldier killed in Afghan war as troops pull out after 2 decades

24. From "Stability Operations" to "Stabilization Activities:" Why and How the Department of Defense changed its Doctrine and Policies

25. Candid reflections on Afghanistan from those whose lives were changed forever by the war

26.  ‘Congratulations, You Killed Osama bin Laden’

27. Teamwork Led Us to Bin Laden and Can Keep America Safe

28. Donald Kirk: How anti-Asianism explodes in wake of the 'China virus'

29. "Oh So Social" Conversation: Osama bin Laden Raid - 10 Years Later (OSS Society)

 

1. Exclusive: Coalition calls on Biden to form disinformation task force

Reprise the Active Measures Working Group from the Raegan-Bush years? Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference

By Fletcher Schoen and Christopher J. Lamb Strategic Perspectives 11  

Matt Armstrong can weigh in on the merits of doing so.  

Quote from Matt's 2017 testimony: "We have remarkably little relevant experience in combating the political warfare being waged against us today. We may imagine that the United States Information Agency and the Active Measures Working Group are guideposts, but USIA was never intended nor fit for that purpose and the Active Measures Working Group was a very small and very reactionary operation. Neither is a useful model of proactive and unified defense, let alone offense."

Axios · by Ina Fried

 

2. Putin Just Doesn’t Care - Murder, mayhem—so what? He's trying to make a point. 

spytalk.co · by Jeff Stein

 

3. China Expands Disinformation Campaign to Undermine International Xinjiang Outcry

rfa.org

Note this is from Radio Free Asia and this is broadcast into China.

 

4. When It Comes to Political Warfare, China is at the Head of the Class

oodaloop.com · by Emilio Iasiello · April 23, 2021

Excerpts: “This raises into question President Biden’s strategy to use coalitions to reign in and contain adversaries. While many may join in curtailing countries like Iran and North Korea, China’s burgeoning status as a global leader and its strong economy may present benefits that far outweigh any preferred courses of action against it. China’s influence operations and disinformation/misinformation campaigns are exactly the types of activities Beijing will use to cast doubt and sow division in order to weaken the resolve of some of the more malleable alliance members. This may result in the White House settling for a mild Plan C when it comes to addressing China instead of going with a strong Plan A.

China’s political warfare embodies the types of activities Beijing implement against such an alliance. They will be used to cast doubt and sow division to weaken the resolve of some of the more malleable members. What’s more, political warfare (in tandem with its broader “Three Warfares” strategy) exemplifies the tenets expressed in Chinese writings of “winning a war without fighting.” When it comes to shaping perceptions, China has excelled in the information space. If the United States does not put up is own counter to these activities, it may find itself incorrectly thinking its strength remains behind a Maginot Line that’s crumbling from its base.

 

5. Russia’s Sputnik V Skews Stats to Falsely Trash Pfizer Vaccine

polygraph.info · by William Echols · April 28, 2021

Excerpts: “U.S. officials have previously accused Russian intelligence of running disinformation campaigns to undermine faith in the Pfizer vaccine.

Polygraph.info previously noted that the state-owned Russian Gazette published an article in February claiming 64 people in Sweden had died from side effects of the Pfizer vaccine, despite the fact that Sweden’s medical watchdog found that none of the deaths were vaccine-related.

A study by The Alliance for Securing Democracy, which is affiliated with the German Marshall Fund of the United States, found that “Pfizer received by far the most unfavorable coverage of any vaccine, particularly from Kremlin-funded outlets and Iranian state media and government accounts.”

 

6. 'Ghostwriter' disinformation campaign rages on as Biden prepares for NATO trip

cyberscoop.com · by Sean Lyngaas · April 28, 2021

A 33 page PDF of a report on "Ghostwriter" is at this link.

Excerpts: “The Ghostwriter activity is the kind of foreign disinformation that Joe Biden will be up against as he prepares to make his first overseas trip as U.S. president in June. Biden will attend a NATO summit in Brussels where is expected to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to the transnational bloc.

NATO has long been a fixation for Ghostwriter operatives. They forged a letter last year from the NATO secretary general to Lithuania’s defense ministry purporting to announce the withdrawal of NATO troops from that country. But the attackers have also veered into pure domestic politics by hacking Polish politicians’ Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts to smear them or to attack social activists in Poland, according to FireEye.

 

7. Chinese workers allege forced labor, abuses in Xi’s ‘Belt and Road’ program

The Washington Post · by Lily Kuo and Alicia Chen · April 30, 2021

I hope the Global Engagement Center is including this in its themes and message planning. Of course we want these messages to come from other sources than simply the USG so hopefully articles like these will have legs.

 

8. Facebook says it removed the internet's 12 most prominent anti-vaxxers. 10 are still on the social network.

Mashable · by Matt Binder

Excerpts: “The Center for Countering Digital Hate and Anti-Vax Watch are urging the big social media platforms to take action and enforce their own policies.

“Big Tech promised to protect public health by taking enforcement action against known, repeat-offender vaccine disinformation superspreaders. Yet, so far, they have failed to finish the job,” said CCDH CEO Imran Ahmed in a statement. “The CEOs of Facebook, Twitter and Instagram know exactly who is violating their terms of service. Their lies cost lives, and social media companies’ refusal to remove them has dire consequences. Big Tech must stop profiting from the spread of this disinformation.”

Mashable has reached out to Facebook regarding the actions the company took as mentioned at today's hearing and will update this post when we hear back.

 

9. Biden leaves China a Xinjiang terrorism problem with US exit from Afghanistan

SCMP · by Maria Siow · May 01, 2021

An interesting perspective I had not considered.

 

10. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker - Late April Trends (link to complete roll-up)

FDD · by Jonathan Schanzer · April 30, 2021

 

11. Opinion: Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative

The Globe and Mail · by Roger Garside · April 30, 2021

Wow. Now here is a provocative new book with a very provocative thesis.

Maybe there is a role for Gene Sharp's From Dictatorship to Democracy . I wonder if Sharp is cited in his book.

A coup is one way in which change can come. Another possibility is that Mr. Xi’s opponents will prevent his reappointment as general secretary of the Communist Party at its next national congress in November, 2022, and will use that occasion to launch China onto the path of change. That congress is a crucial point on China’s timeline to the future, because the reappointment of Mr. Xi would raise the prospect of him remaining leader for life and make his removal thereafter much more difficult.

The potential benefits of an orderly transition from dictatorship to democracy in China test the limits of the imagination. They include peace based on trust; a great extension of the domain of democracy and the rule of law; and a liberation of the creative genius of the Chinese people in the arts and sciences to match that which has already occurred in the field of economic activity. To achieve this outcome will require a degree of skill and courage on the part of all those engaged in shaping our future seldom seen in history. But my faith in humanity is strong enough to allow me to believe it is within our grasp.

 

12. Biden’s first 100 days on the global stage were the easy part

NBC News · by Alexander Smith · May 1, 2021

Yes it is a complex world out there.

Excerpts: “But explaining how you're going to solve the world's intractable puzzles is a lot easier than actually solving them.

If these obstacles were daunting when Biden was Obama's vice president, they have gained a new complexity now.

America finds its global dominance challenged, and there is now far more domestic scrutiny on foreign commitments than the relative leeway in the years after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Babones believes.

"It's just a more complex world," von Hippel at RUSI said. "The U.S. is not as strong as it was four years ago, and it needs to compromise more and be a different type of superpower."

 

13. Pentagon chief calls for ‘new vision’ for American defense

Star-Advertiser · by Cindy Ellen Russell · May 1, 2021

Excerpts: “U.S. military isn’t meant to stand apart, but to buttress U.S. diplomacy and advance a foreign policy that employs all of our instruments of national power,” Austin said.

He chose to spell out his ideas at Pearl Harbor, at the center of U.S. military power in the Indo- Pacific region, reflecting U.S. concerns that China’s rapid modernization and growing assertiveness make it a powerful adversary. Notably, Austin in his speech did not explicitly mention China or North Korea.

In his first four-plus months as defense secretary, Austin has focused less on big policy pronouncements and more on immediate issues like the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and internal issues like extremism in the military, as well as launching broad reviews of defense strategy.

...

Austin said U.S. defense will continue to rest on maintaining deterrence, which he described as “fixing a basic truth within the minds of our potential foes: The costs and risks of aggression are out of line with any conceivable benefit.”

To keep that deterrent effect, the U.S. military must use existing capabilities, develop new ones and use all of them in new and networked ways — “hand in hand with our allies and partners.” This should be accomplished in alignment with U.S. diplomatic goals and efforts, he added, in order to prevent conflict from breaking out in the first place.

“It’s always easier to stamp out a small ember than to put out a raging fire,” he said.

 

14. State Briefing on SECSTATE Trip to the G7

state.gov

Excerpts: “On the agenda for this year’s G7, it will be filled with weighty issues, including COVID-19, economic recovery and growth, the climate crisis, human rights, food security, gender equality, and more. The list of challenges is long, but our partnerships are deep and strong to tackle these challenges.

Our approach to responding is just as important, in fact, as the challenges themselves. We’ll discuss geopolitical challenges from the perspective of collaborative and multilateral strength. We will affirm the values our nations share, such as media freedoms and how to protect them. We will discuss a sustainable recovery from the pandemic and how to develop greater resilience going forward.

The pandemic and the climate crisis are the latest reminders that we are bound together in a global community. Our history of shared values with our G7 partners will be a firm base as we work to meet these global challenges.

Briefing With Acting Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip T. Reeker and International Organization Affairs Senior Bureau Official Erica Barks-Ruggles on the Secretary’s Upcoming Travel to the United Kingdom for G7 Meetings and Ukraine - United States Department of State.”

 

15. Biden’s Foreign Policy Takes a Back Seat to Domestic Priorities

WSJ · by Warren P. Strobel and Vivian Salama

We cannot conduct effective foreign policy if our domestic house is not in order. On the other hand we have to walk and chew gum at the same time.

 

16.  Senate Intel leaders say mysterious directed energy attacks appear to be increasing

CNN · by Jeremy Herb

Strange, troubling, and begs the question, if real, what are we going to do about this?

Excerpts: “The Pentagon and CIA have separately set up task forces to address the issue, and the State Department named a senior official to lead the department's response. CIA Director William Burns said during his confirmation hearing that he would review the evidence on the alleged attacks on CIA personnel overseas.

...

"We have been working quietly and persistently behind closed doors on this critical issue since the first reports, and pressed Director Burns on it during the recent Worldwide Threats hearing, in both open and closed session," the spokesperson said. "The Committee will continue to hold events and briefings on this subject and we will follow the evidence wherever it may lead and ensure anyone responsible is held to account."

 

17. How a brutal assault led a woman to one of the CIA's most valuable Russian spies

news.yahoo.com · by  Jenna McLaughlin and Sean D. Naylor

Truth is stranger than fiction. A long, fascinating read.

Excerpt: “Unperturbed, Sales began her own investigation. Over the next several years, she pieced together documents Mikhaylov had left behind, conducted her own interviews and scoured the internet for information. Sales eventually came to believe the CIA had helped her former tenant move to the United States, and is protecting him as part of a legal maneuver roughly similar to the Justice Department’s witness protection program. The reason, she argues, is that he’s the son of one of the agency’s most valuable assets of the past two decades.

 

18. Davidson, handing INDOPACOM’s reins to Aquilino, takes one last jab at China

Stars and Stripes · by Wyatt Olson · May 01, 2021

Excerpt: “Make no mistake, the Communist Party of China seeks to supplant the idea of a free and open international order with a new order, one with Chinese characteristics, one where Chinese national power is more important than international law,” he said during an afternoon ceremony that included remarks by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

 

19. Secretary of Defense Remarks for the U.S. INDOPACOM Change of Command

defense.gov

 

21. He mentored decades of Army Rangers. At 94, he’ll receive the Medal of Honor.

The Washington Post · by Dan Lamothe · April 30, 2021

Another great American who is going to finally get what he deserves.

 

22. As counterterror missions fade, special operations finds time to fix its own problems

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · April 30, 2021

 

23. Nathan Chapman: Remembering the first US soldier killed in Afghan war as troops pull out after 2 decades

meaww.com · by Shubham Ghosh · April 29, 2021

It was an honor to serve with Nate in 1-1 SFG in Okinawa. He was our communications sergeant in C-1-1 just before he PCS'd back to Fort Lewis and was selected for this mission (after he of course volunteered for it).

But we should all be troubled by this concluding section: “Chapman’s family kept on suffering

In July 2012, the CBS News carried a report that spoke in detail about the difficulties that Chapman’s widow Renae went through after his death. Besides the tragedy of losing a loved one who she said “was funny”, Renae has also found it challenging to get the benefits from the veterans affairs department that were promised to Chapman’s family. Ranae, who faced medical hardships after her husband’s passing away, was quoted as saying by CBS News: “They clerical error you to death. They paperwork you to death.”

She said she hadn’t got the payments she owed for dental work because the VA department “insisted” that Nathan died a year earlier than he did and that meant some of her benefits were well past their expiry date. She also said she did not get medical benefits because the department thought she had conditions that were outside the purview of primary health insurance, something she denied. Ranae, who attended former president George W Bush’s State of the Union speech as a guest of former first lady Laura Bush in 2002, has also been made to prove to the department that she has not married again. Ranae told the network that she feels for those thousands of soldiers who return home from the battlefield with a bruised body and psyche and feared that they are not going to get the help they need.

 

24. From "Stability Operations" to "Stabilization Activities:" Why and How the Department of Defense changed its Doctrine and Policies

linkedin.com · by Robert Burrell · April 30, 2021

Excerpts: “Whether or not these changes were needed following the Long War remains in question. Historically, the U.S. military has a mixed record on stabilization, with some very positive results. The two prevalent case studies remain the great successes in Japan and Germany following World War II. There also remains many issues unresolved about exactly how the State Department will implement its new responsibilities, particularly on a massive scale like that conducted in Iraq or Afghanistan. Another key question regards how the State Department will operate in non-permissive environments to achieve stabilization.

In conclusion, the Department of Defense, State Department, and USAID – all joined at the hip – have set out on a new direction in regard to stabilization, a collaboration which was long overdue and appears very promising. At the same time, the history behind how and why these changes took place are also important to understanding where the U.S. Government is headed.

 

25. Candid reflections on Afghanistan from those whose lives were changed forever by the war

militarytimes.com · by Howard Altman · April 29, 2021

 

26. ‘Congratulations, You Killed Osama bin Laden’

Politico · by Garrett M. Graff · April 30, 2021

Another long very interesting read.

 

27. Teamwork Led Us to Bin Laden and Can Keep America Safe

defenseone.com · by Leon E. Panetta and Jenny Bash

 

28.  Donald Kirk: How anti-Asianism explodes in wake of the 'China virus'

wacotrib.com · by Donald Kirk

 

29."Oh So Social" Conversation: Osama bin Laden Raid - 10 Years Later (OSS Society)

Register at this link. 

 

----------------

 

“To fight the good fight is one of the bravest and noblest of life’s experiences. Not the bloodshed and the battle of man with man, but the grappling with mental and spiritual adversaries that determines the inner caliber of the contestant. It is the quality of the struggle put forth by a man that proclaims to the world what manner of man he is far more than may be by the termination of the battle.

 

It matters not nearly so much to a man that he succeeds in winning some long-sought prize as it does that he has worked for it honestly and unfalteringly with all the force and energy there is in him. It is in the effort that the soul grows and asserts itself to the fullest extent of its possibilities, and he that has worked will, persevering in the face of all opposition and apparent failure, fairly and squarely endeavoring to perform his part to the utmost extent of his capabilities, may well look back upon his labor regardless of any seeming defeat in its result and say, ‘I have fought a good fight.’

 

As you throw the weight of your influence on the side of the good, the true and the beautiful, your life will achieve an endless splendor. It will continue in the lives of others, higher, finer, nobler than you can even contemplate.”

- Hugh B. Brown

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Biden administration forges new path on North Korea crisis in wake of Trump and Obama failures

2. Biden to Steer Between Obama, Trump Policies on North Korea

3. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker- Late April Trends - Korea

4. Biden to veer from Trump, Obama policies in taking on NKorea

5. Biden administration sets new North Korea policy of ‘practical’ diplomacy

6. Kim Jong-un orders army youth to stamp out haircuts and music he doesn't like

7. S. Korea vows to coordinate with U.S. for early resumption of nuke talks with N.K.

8.  S. Korean, U.S. military chiefs vow stronger combined readiness, alliance

9. Seoul, Washington still fine-tuning summit agenda

10. S. Korea to join U.S. efforts to reshape global semiconductor supply chain

11. Report: U.S. seeking improvements to THAAD systems, including Korea

12. South Korea Is Doing It Again: Confounding The Skeptics

13. Biden’s new North Korea policy is an extended hand to Kim Jong Un

14. Joint chiefs of staff of S. Korea, U.S., Japan meet in Hawaii

15. North Korean defector faces $27K fine for sending leaflets into country by balloon

16. Trump Reveals What Many Already Suspected About His Korea Policy

 

1. Biden administration forges new path on North Korea crisis in wake of Trump and Obama failures

The Washington Post  · by John Hudson and Ellen Nakashima  · April 30, 2021

It seems like John Hudson and Ellen Nakashima were privileged to be granted the scoop on the new policy.

 

2. Biden to Steer Between Obama, Trump Policies on North Korea

WSJ · by Michael R. Gordon and Sabrina Siddiqui

Based on the timing of this article it looks like Michael Gordon and Sabrina Siddiqui also had early access to the announcement that the policy review was complete.

My sense is the Biden administration is basing their new policy on a deep (and realistic) understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. However, it will still be a compromise policy taking into account many of the diverse views of both US internal differences and those of our allies (a tough thing to do).

But.....I hope there is a publicly discussed overt policy (that is based on principled (and practical) diplomacy, a human rights upfront approach, deterrence and defense and full implementation of all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions) but that it supports a classified superior political warfare strategy to counter the regime's political warfare strategy with juche characteristics.

 

3. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker- Late April Trends - Korea

FDD · by David Maxwell and Matthew Ha

 

4. Biden to veer from Trump, Obama policies in taking on NKorea

AP · by Aamer Madhani and Matthew Lee

People are already making comments about the phrase "denuclearization of the entire Korean peninsula" (both positively and critically as the Korea watcher community is divided on this issue). I wrote about it here. 

My comments: “Another clue regarding the Biden administration’s policy for the Hermit Kingdom is its consistent use of the phrase “denuclearization of North Korea” to describe its long-term objective. The United States and its regional allies have long debated this phrasing. Washington and other members of the Quad prefer this wording, North and South Korea and many Korean pundits say the goal is “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.”  

 

The latter phrase dates back to the 1992 North-South Agreement on Denuclearization, which pledged that neither North nor South Korea would seek nuclear weapons. Various agreements and resolutions over the past thirty years, including UNSCR 1718 and the 2018 statements at summit meetings in Panmunjom and Singapore, have also used this phrasing. Yet the “denuclearization of North Korea,” which solely references the Hermit Kingdom, is the more accurate description of what must take place on the Korean Peninsula.

This is because the ROK and the United States completed the denuclearization of the South when America withdrew tactical nuclear weapons in 1991. It is North Korea that has continued to develop weapons of mass destruction to threaten the ROK, the region, and the world. The Biden administration’s choice to use “denuclearization of North Korea” suggests the new policy’s objectives will not be complete until North Korea denuclearizes.

Kim Jong-un uses the phrase “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula” as part of his demand for the end of Washington’s “hostile policy,” which he defines as the presence of U.S. troops in the region, the ROK/U.S. alliance, and Washington’s extended deterrence over South Korea and Japan. Whether witting or not, those who use this phrase are supporting the North Korean narrative, thereby providing the continued rationale for Kim Jong-un to make his various demands. Without U.S. forces, Kim believes he can successfully implement Pyongyang’s strategy, which is based on subversion, coercion, and extortion. If conditions are right, then he might even be able to achieve the regime’s strategic aim to dominate the peninsula in order to ensure its survival.

...

However, Kim will likely continue using the phrase “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula” to mask his true motives. When he does so, the United States and the international community should respond with two messages as part of an influence campaign.

First, they should publicly explain Kim’s own hostile strategy every time the regime uses the phrase. This is in keeping with Sun Tzu’s famous dictum, “what is of supreme importance is to attack the enemy’s strategy.”

Second, they should remind the international community and North Korea that the ROK already completed denuclearization of the South back in 1991 and that there are no nuclear weapons on any southern territory. It is the North that has refused to comply with all relevant UNSCRs, and it alone must do so to complete denuclearization of the entire Korean Peninsula.

 

5. Biden administration sets new North Korea policy of ‘practical’ diplomacy

Reuters

Excerpt: “On April 15, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius quoted a senior administration official as saying the likelihood of North Korea giving up nuclear weapons right now was “close to zero” and the administration was seeking interim “way stations,” such as halting weapons proliferation and checking North Korea’s development of new delivery systems like submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

 

6. Kim Jong-un orders army youth to stamp out haircuts and music he doesn't like

Mirror · by Nina Lloyd · May 1, 2021

The real threats to the regime: Ideological. Of course he may be on to something. Look how radicalized the west became due to the Beatles' haircuts on the Ed Sullivan show in the 1960s. It was the end of the world as we know it (oh wait, that was REM).

 

7. S. Korea vows to coordinate with U.S. for early resumption of nuke talks with N.K.

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · May 1, 2021

The key issue: “The two sides were far apart over the scope of Washington's sanctions relief in exchange for the North's denuclearization steps. “

 

8. S. Korean, U.S. military chiefs vow stronger combined readiness, alliance

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · May 1, 2021

Note it is the combined forces that must be "ready to fight tonight."

It is no surprise that the professional military leaders in our alliance would emphasize this. The question is will our political leaders (particularly in the South), allow readiness to be strengthened?

 

9. Seoul, Washington still fine-tuning summit agenda

The Korea Times  · by Jung Da-min · April 30, 2021

From the South Korean perspective note emphasis on QUAD and COVID (specifically vaccines). No mention of the new US Korea policy.

 

10. S. Korea to join U.S. efforts to reshape global semiconductor supply chain

donga.com · May 01, 2021

Good news.

 

11. Report: U.S. seeking improvements to THAAD systems, including Korea

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · April 30, 2021

This will cause friction with both the professional agitators who have radicalized Korea citizens to protest THAAD and China.

 

12. South Korea Is Doing It Again: Confounding The Skeptics

Forbes · by William Pesek · April 30, 2021

:-)

Excerpts: “The good news is that Korea’s rebound adds spring to the step of President Moon Jae-in’s government, which is in its last year. Since May 2017, Moon has talked big about building a more innovative growth model.

In recent decades, Korea beat the dreaded “middle-income trap” by becoming a leader in consumer electronics, digital devices, petrochemicals, semiconductors and popular culture exports. More recently, Seoul tried to diversify an economy historically driven by autos and ships. Moon set out to recalibrate growth engines from exports to innovation and services.

A major focus has been diverting economic oxygen away from chaebols to startups that disrupt the local business culture and develop into tech “unicorns” that create new jobs and wealth. The trouble, of course, is that Korea has now had three successive presidents who spoke of raising the nation’s economic game.

 

13. Biden’s new North Korea policy is an extended hand to Kim Jong Un

Vox · by Alex Ward · April 30, 2021

Some diverse interpretations of the policy now that it has been announced that the review is complete.

Semantics but the announcement was the review is complete - could that mean the review has been completed but the new policy (which should be based on the review) is still in development? (I tend to think the new policy has been developed but we are only likely to hear the major talking points which Ms. Psaki provided rather than the details which I believe should be classified).

Again the phrase "denuclearization of the Korean peninsula" is going to be controversial. If we are going to use it, we must continually emphasize that South Korea has complied with the 1992 north-South Agreement of Denuclearization - the north did not and has not and must now comply with all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions to meet its obligations.

 

14. Joint chiefs of staff of S. Korea, U.S., Japan meet in Hawaii

donga.com

Note the reference to the Iskander KN-23 which can attack what the north calls the "fat target" which can only mean Camp Humphreys, Osan Air Base and Cheongju Air Base. Our ROK and US military leaders know that Kim still has designs on warfighting and executing his camping plan to dominate the peninsula if conditions are favorable or he is faced with a existential threat (internally or externally).

 

15.  North Korean defector faces $27K fine for sending leaflets into country by balloon

Newsweek · by Julia Marnin · April 30, 2021

If he is subject to a fine by the ROKG the international community must unite in opposition (and we will have to start a "GoFundMe campaign").

However, if the ROKG decided to not take action perhaps it can walk back its appeasement of KimYo-jong who coerced the ROK into passing the law in December based on her threats (and the destruction of the South Korean liaison building in Kaesong last June).

 

16.  Trump Reveals What Many Already Suspected About His Korea Policy

thediplomat.com · by Kyle Ferrier · April 28, 2021

I think I am a little more critical of the former POTUS' statement than Kyle: “I think the former president's comments are harmful to the US and our interests. They are embarrassing and shameful and illustrate how little he understands of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. as well as the importance of the ROK/US alliance to US national security interests. He does not know what all of the rest of Americans and most Koreans in the north and South (save perhaps some in the Moon administration) know: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. It seeks to do this through the execution of a seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by Kim Jong-un in order to ensure the survival of the Kim family regime.  That said, the former president (or more likely his national security team - many of whom had a deep understanding of the nature, objectives and strategy of the Kim family regime) deserves credit for only one action in regards to north Korea and that is he did not lift sanctions against the regime. That was his single most important action in regards to Korea policy. His unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy was really nothing more than the gimmick of a reality TV show and did little to advance ROK/US strategic interests and security except to erase the last taboo of a presidential meeting with what can only be described as the most evil totalitarian dictator in the modern era who is responsible for the worst human rights abuses and crimes against humanity, as determined by the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry, in the modern era and on a scale not seen since World War II.

 

------------

 

“To fight the good fight is one of the bravest and noblest of life’s experiences. Not the bloodshed and the battle of man with man, but the grappling with mental and spiritual adversaries that determines the inner caliber of the contestant. It is the quality of the struggle put forth by a man that proclaims to the world what manner of man he is far more than may be by the termination of the battle.

 

It matters not nearly so much to a man that he succeeds in winning some long-sought prize as it does that he has worked for it honestly and unfalteringly with all the force and energy there is in him. It is in the effort that the soul grows and asserts itself to the fullest extent of its possibilities, and he that has worked will, persevering in the face of all opposition and apparent failure, fairly and squarely endeavoring to perform his part to the utmost extent of his capabilities, may well look back upon his labor regardless of any seeming defeat in its result and say, ‘I have fought a good fight.’

 

As you throw the weight of your influence on the side of the good, the true and the beautiful, your life will achieve an endless splendor. It will continue in the lives of others, higher, finer, nobler than you can even contemplate.”

- Hugh B. Brown

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. State of Defense 2021

2. United States Special Operations Command’s efforts to sustain the readiness of special operations forces and transform the force for future security challenges

3. "They're lawless": Current, former Navy SEALs allege criminality, drug use within ranks

4. China warns US against imposing its democratic ideals after Biden speech

5. Senate Armed Services committee checks up on effort to recruit women into Special Ops

6. Major overhaul in how the military handles sexual misconduct cases may finally happen

7. China says US increasing military activity directed at it

8. U.S. Spy Chief Sees Taiwan Views Hardening for Independence

9. A candid conversation with Rep. Mike Waltz, Congress’s only combat-decorated Green Beret

10. The U.S. Military Needs to Stay Out of the Information Warfare Game

11. Want to Be a Better Defense Strategist? Read Fiction.

12. An Asymmetric Defense of Taiwan

13. Al Qaeda promises 'war on all fronts' against America as Biden pulls out of Afghanistan

14. The most dangerous place on Earth (Spoiler alert: Taiwan)

15. Biden’s world: how key countries have reacted to the US president’s first 100 days

16. In Conflicts From Ukraine to Taiwan, the West Needs a Strategy

17. Congress needs to review UN agency's terror finance problem | Opinion

18. U.S. Security Partners and Putin’s S-400

19. Exactly how much does a highly placed spy cost?

20. India’s Covid crisis set to derail world economy

21. Washington’s Weirdest Think Tank

22. Retired Generals and Service Chiefs Launch 'Operation Protect Democracy' in Wake of Capitol Attack

23. FVL: Don’t Pick The Tiltrotor, V-22 Test Pilot Tells Army

 

1. State of Defense 2021

defenseone.com · by Defense One Staff

Please go to this link to read the state of all the services.  

There is no mention of Special Operations Forces.  There is nothing on information and influence operations (or psychological operations and civil affairs).  There is no mention of unconventional warfare.  And the excerpt below is the only reference to irregular warfare.

Just saying.

Excerpt: “That doesn’t mean that the lessons from two-decades of fighting insurgents will go to waste, said Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville at a Center for a New American Security event this month. “Counter-insurgency and irregular warfare, that's not going away. In fact as we look around the world there’s many places that could be incubators for potential terrorism.” The Army’s Security Force Assistance Brigades will play a role in more settings, helping partner militaries better step up their ability to fight terrorists and irregular forces.

State of Defense 2021

 

3. "They're lawless": Current, former Navy SEALs allege criminality, drug use within ranks

CBS

This video report is very troubling.

 

4. China warns US against imposing its democratic ideals after Biden speech

Strait Times

Perhaps POTUS struck a nerve.  Democratic ideals and values are a threat to autocrats.

 

 

 

5. Senate Armed Services committee checks up on effort to recruit women into Special Ops

13newsnow.com

Video at the link.

 

6. Major overhaul in how the military handles sexual misconduct cases may finally happen

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · April 29, 2021

I do not think there is anything that will stop this effort.

 

7. China says US increasing military activity directed at it

militarytimes.com · by Associated Press · April 29, 2021

Remember the Chinese three warfares: psychological warfare, legal warfare, and media or public opinion warfare.

 

8. U.S. Spy Chief Sees Taiwan Views Hardening for Independence

Bloomberg · by Anthony Capaccio · April 29, 2021

The people of Taiwan do not want to lose their freedom.  Can anyone argue for denying their freedom?

 

9. A candid conversation with Rep. Mike Waltz, Congress’s only combat-decorated Green Beret

Washington Examiner · by Jamie McIntyre · April 30, 2021

I believe Mike is a second term Congressman.  He was elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2020.

Excerpts: “Washington Examiner: Based on your more than two decades of service in uniform, do you believe there is a problem with racism and white supremacy in the U.S. military?

Waltz: I think racism exists everywhere. We should always strive to eliminate it. The way to eliminate it is to keep the military merit-based and mission-focused. It is about achieving the standards that we have set to defend the nation. But when we start infusing in the very earliest part with 18-, 19-year-old cadets that race is a focus, I think that's moving in the exact opposite direction.

I want to be clear that we absolutely should have a clear understanding of our very checkered past as a country with race, but inculcating our future leaders to be focused on race, I think the pendulum is swinging way too far.

 

10. The U.S. Military Needs to Stay Out of the Information Warfare Game

19fortyfive.com · by Jordan Prescott · April 29, 2021

Quite a critique.  We have a lot of work to do in information warfare but taking DOD out of it is not the way to go. Though we could heed Kennan's advice below (just not the author's interpretation of it).  We absolutely need a national level civilian led effort but that does not mean there is not a role for DOD.

Excerpts: “Within DOD, Cyber Command is responsible for offensive cyberspace operations and Special Operations Command is the lead for information operations. Unfortunately, at a March hearing, DOD witnesses acknowledged the military isn’t keeping up with information-warfare threats from Russia and China and reiterated the need for a whole-of-government approach.

One could fairly interpret the latter comment as a plea to be excused from the mission. During the global war on terrorism, the whole-of-government mantra was repeatedly endlessly and still the other departments barely showed up.

ISIS information operatives once tormented America with its relentless messaging. They’re also now dead because American bombs were more effective than tweets. DOD could be forgiven for wanting to be given a pass and to focus on kinetic operations.

Kennan, the architect of containment, recognized America’s belief that peace and war were distinct and would hinder its efforts to counter the Soviets. To succeed, Kennan’s solution was simple — wage “political warfare”. Most importantly, Kennan recommended the implementing entity would be staffed and led by civilians reporting directly to the President via the Secretary of State.

The United States would be wise to revisit this recommendation.

In Greek mythology, Athena is the goddess of just war but it is Hermes who is the herald of the gods.

To paraphrase the Scriptures, render unto Athena that which is Athena’s, render unto Hermes the things which are Hermes.

 

11. Want to Be a Better Defense Strategist? Read Fiction.

The National Interest · by James Holmes · April 30, 2021

The late Charles Hill would recommend reading the classics and literature.  His book on Grand Strategy is an excellent survey of how the classics and literature contribute to and influence Grand Strategy throughout history.  That said, I think reading Cole and Singer and other modern authors like them is very helpful.

 

12. An Asymmetric Defense of Taiwan

The National Interest · by Michael O'Hanlon · April 28, 2021

Dr. O'Hanlon does not outline all asymmetric approaches.  He overlooks the potential of civil resistance to support unconventional deterrence.

 

13. Al Qaeda promises 'war on all fronts' against America as Biden pulls out of Afghanistan

CNN · by Nic Roberston and Saleem Mehsud

Excerpts: “In an exclusive interview with CNN conducted through intermediaries, two al Qaeda operatives tell CNN that "war against the US will be continuing on all other fronts unless they are expelled from the rest of the Islamic world."

In the past al Qaeda has rarely responded to questions, choosing instead to hide behind its own self-serving propaganda, dodging even the most distant scrutiny. It's unclear why the group has chosen to do so now.

Terrorism analyst Paul Cruickshank, editor-in-chief of West Point's CTC Sentinel, who reviewed al Qaeda's answers, says it is possible "they feel buoyed by the Biden administration's decision to pull out troops from Afghanistan, but they may also be seeking to deflect attention from the many recent losses."

 

14. The most dangerous place on Earth (Spoiler alert: Taiwan)

Economist

Wow.  This is quite a headline.  

Excerpts: “If they are to ensure that war remains too much of a gamble for China, America and Taiwan need to think ahead. Work to re-establish an equilibrium across the Taiwan Strait will take years. Taiwan must start to devote fewer resources to big, expensive weapons systems that are vulnerable to Chinese missiles and more to tactics and technologies that would frustrate an invasion.

America requires weapons to deter China from launching an amphibious invasion; it must prepare its allies, including Japan and South Korea; and it needs to communicate to China that its battle plans are credible. This will be a tricky balance to strike. Deterrence usually strives to be crystal-clear about retaliation. The message here is more subtle. China must be discouraged from trying to change Taiwan’s status by force even as it is reassured that America will not support a dash for formal independence by Taiwan. The risk of a superpower arms race is high.

Be under no illusions how hard it is to sustain ambiguity. Hawks in Washington and Beijing will always be able to portray it as weakness. And yet, seemingly useful shows of support for Taiwan, such as American warships making port calls on the island, could be misread as a dangerous shift in intentions.

Most disputes are best put to rest. Those that can be resolved only in war can often be put off and, as China’s late leader Deng Xiaoping said, left to wiser generations. Nowhere presents such a test of statesmanship as the most dangerous place on Earth.”

 

15. Biden’s world: how key countries have reacted to the US president’s first 100 days

The Guardian · by Jon Henley · April 30, 2021

Interesting.  But it is still early in POTUS' term.

 

16. In Conflicts From Ukraine to Taiwan, the West Needs a Strategy

Bloomberg · by Andreas Kluth · April 29, 2021

No kidding.  Would anyone argue otherwise?  But seriously I think the subtitle is useful - ambiguity does not equal indecisive (or should not).

Excepts: “What’s clear is that the choice between ambiguity and clarity is fraught with danger and a matter for the highest rung of statecraft. It’s disconcerting when a U.S. president appears not to appreciate the concept of strategic ambiguity — in 2001, George W. Bush stated bluntly that he would “do whatever it takes” to defend Taiwan. It’s equally worrisome when a president fails to grasp the proper deployment of strategic clarity. In 2012 Barack Obama warned Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad not to cross the “red line” of using chemical weapons but then did nothing when Assad committed that atrocity the following year.

In East Asia, the case for switching from ambiguity to clarity is now strong. In eastern Europe, it remains weaker. But what worries me most is that the West’s ambiguity in both regions increasingly seems desultory rather than strategic — the result of indecision as opposed to purpose.

 

17. Congress needs to review UN agency's terror finance problem | Opinion

Newsweek · by Julia Schulman and Richard Goldberg · April 29, 2021

Excerpts: “In this year's foreign aid bill, Congress should condition U.S. assistance to UNRWA on thorough anti-terror vetting for all UNRWA expenditures prior to disbursement. UNRWA staff, contractors and recipients of cash assistance should be vetted to ensure that they don't have ties to terrorism. Legislation should require the State Department to halt and claw back U.S. funding if the agency declines to turn over its payroll, contractor and beneficiary information for vetting.

Congress can also legislate broader reforms. Since UNRWA is a welfare agency—not a refugee agency—the U.S. government should not use scarce refugee assistance dollars to support it. Wherever possible, assistance should transition away from UNRWA and toward bilateral aid programs that help Palestinians achieve self-sufficiency. Any contribution to UNRWA should also be contingent on allowing the U.S. to independently audit its books. American taxpayers should not trust China with ensuring UNRWA's financial transparency.

Congress should consider two other conditions for future assistance to UNRWA: verification that textbooks used in UNRWA schools do not include anti-Semitic content, incitement or extremism and a requirement that UNRWA return all contributions should the U.S. discover its facilities are being used by terrorist organizations to store weapons or equipment.

UNRWA's steering millions of dollars to terror group affiliates should alarm U.S. taxpayers and their representatives in Congress. If the Biden administration wants to restart U.S. funding to UNRWA, congressional appropriators should insist that funding be contingent on verifiable reform. Congress must ensure that humanitarian aid reaches the Palestinian people, not terrorist group affiliates.

18.  U.S. Security Partners and Putin’s S-400

FDD by Bradley Bowman, Aykan Erdemier and Ryan Brobst

Download the very comprehensive infographic here:

 

19. Exactly how much does a highly placed spy cost?

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · April 30, 2021

 

20. India’s Covid crisis set to derail world economy

asiatimes.com · by Uma S Kambhampati · April 30, 2021

Excerpts: “Given all these issues, and the humanitarian crisis unfolding, it has become imperative for the world to act quickly to help India – whether such help is requested or not.

We are seeing signs of this coming through, albeit after a short delay, from the UK (oxygen concentrators, ventilators); the US (vaccine raw materials, drugs, rapid tests and ventilators); and Germany (oxygen and medical aid).

Whatever is provided is likely to be a drop in the ocean of India’s requirements, but at least it demonstrates a recognition that we are in this together. The Indian government may have been ineffective in the current crisis, but failing to recognize how it will affect the world would amount to an equivalent level of complacency.

If the leading powers fail to do everything they can to help out, India’s crisis will become a world crisis in short order, not only for health but also for the economy.

 

21. Washington’s Weirdest Think Tank

Table Mat · April 27, 2021

22. Retired Generals and Service Chiefs Launch 'Operation Protect Democracy' in Wake of Capitol Attack

defenseone.com · by Tara Copp

Well this will add to the debate on civil military relations and political action by retired general and flag officers.

Excerpts: “The group will now focus on restoring confidence in the voting system and work to increase civic engagement and voter access. It is also targeting political corruption and misinformation campaigns.

“Our democratic republic is in peril and we must act to restore Americans’ faith in each other and the ideals of a government truly of, by, and for the people,” the group said in a statement announcing its expanded mission.

“The fact that veterans and active duty members participated was troubling for us,” Zinni said. “And then, of late, the legislation that seems to be proliferating to try to restrict eligible voters in many ways and make it more difficult to vote” prompted them to re-group.

 

23. FVL: Don’t Pick The Tiltrotor, V-22 Test Pilot Tells Army

breakingdefense.com · by Scott Trail

Conclusion: “In this competition, the tiltrotor wins for speed and range. For rapid buildup of combat power and sustaining operations, the compound helicopter’s hover performance and tight formations provide a clear advantage. When it comes to the configuration that best supports the Army’s mission while minimizing life cycle costs, the Defiant X performs best where it matters most.

 

---------------

 

 

“Revolutionary war is an antitoxin which not only eliminates the enemy’s poison but also purges us of our own filth.”

- Chairman Mao Zedong (Tse-tung)

 

"Peace is not absence of conflict, it is the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means."

- Ronald Reagan

 

"Do not think of knocking out another person's brains because he differs in opinion from you. It would be as rational to knock yourself on the head because you differ from yourself ten years ago."

- Horace Mann

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. How Biden Can Reduce the North Korean Threat

2. North Korea Sends 10-Year Military Vets to Mines and Building Sites Right After Discharge

3. N. Korea likely to stage provocation, continue modernizing missiles: U.S. intelligence

4. Defector group flouts ban, sends leaflets across North Korea border

5. Biden’s Early Tenure Has Improved America’s Image Abroad

6. Three Puzzles in South Korean Diplomacy Discourse

7. Sharp scuffle between S. Korea, Japan in US review of N. Korea policy

8. Why are South Korea’s young men turning against Moon Jae-in and his ruling party?

9. Kim Jong Un absent from North Korea's Youth League Congress

10. Biden will meet with South Korea’s president on May 21.

11. N.K.'s largest youth group drops late founder's name from title after 25 years

12. Korea to Support U.S.-Led Anti-China Alliance

13. Woman in her 20s dies after beating from Yanggang Province detention center guard

14. North Korea’s Generation Z: The Achilles Heel of Regime Stability

15. Washington Post pivots to Asia with Seoul news hub

16. Half of the Sinpo Fishing Company's fishermen being moved to military fishing company

 

1. How Biden Can Reduce the North Korean Threat

National Review · by Nicholas Eberstadt · April 29, 2021

If this does not spur some creative thinking I do not know what will.  This is from one of our pre-eminent Korea scholars, Dr. Nick Eberstadt.

I was a little more blunt a few years ago as I would call this a strategic strangulation campaign - and then prepare for what comes next. 

I would also add a support to potential internal resistance component and of course it must be built on a sophisticated and holistic information and influence campaign that includes a focus on what is an existential threat to the Kim family regime: human rights (which Nick discusses below)

 

2. North Korea Sends 10-Year Military Vets to Mines and Building Sites Right After Discharge

rfa.org · by Jieun Kim

The brutality of the regime.

Is there resistance potential?

 

3. N. Korea likely to stage provocation, continue modernizing missiles: U.S. intelligence

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 29, 2021

An intelligence question we should always ask is what effect Kim is trying to achieve with a provocation?  What are his objectives? And then how can we counter them?

This is our assessment. But is it Kim's assessment?  And in the worst case scenario when faced with an existential internal or external threat Kim Jong-un may believe execution of his campaign to unify the peninsula by force may be his only option.  Furthermore, just because we assess he does not have the military capability to achieve unification it does not mean that the regime does not seek and will use subversion, coercion/extortion and political warfare to try to achieve it.

Excerpt: "While Berrier noted the North has the capability to mount an attack on South Korea or U.S. Forces Korea, he said the North Korean military "lacks the overall capability to reunify the Korean Peninsula or support a sustained conflict.""

 

4. Defector group flouts ban, sends leaflets across North Korea border

UPI · by Thomas Maresca

A test case? What will be the ROKG response? Will there be a north Korean response?  Human rights and information are existential threats to the Kim family regime.

The US position? (Good statement from the State Department spokesman):

On Thursday, U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price praised "the courage of the North Korean defector and human rights community" and said the United States "will always support their efforts to shine a spotlight on these grave injustices."

 

5. Biden’s Early Tenure Has Improved America’s Image Abroad

morningconsult.com · by Eli Yokley · April 27, 2021

Some interesting data.  Note the little difference in South Korea.

I will William Gallo of VOA offers an interesting anecdotal explanation for why the ratings in South Korea are nearly the same under Trump and Biden.

 

Here is what he tweeted about this article.  I have a similar experience among my Korean friends in the South.

 

William Gallo

@GalloVOA

The US favorability rating in South Korea remains the same under Biden as it was under Trump, suggests this

@MorningConsult poll.

 

William Gallo

@GalloVOA

Some anecdotal context: I've talked with a lot of South Koreans who keep their opinion of Trump separate from their opinion of the US. Which makes sense and would help explain this poll.

 

6. Three Puzzles in South Korean Diplomacy Discourse

Toda · by Chung-in Moon

From one of the most dangerous foes of the ROK/US alliance.  Beware the subversion by Moon Chung-in because he seeks to undermine the alliance and is willing to appease north Korea more than most.

That said, his three "anecdotes" (or puzzles) below provide some interesting and useful perspectives.  They can provide us with insights into how he is likely advising the Moon administration.

 

7. Sharp scuffle between S. Korea, Japan in US review of N. Korea policy

Hani · by Gil Yun-hyung · April 26, 2021 

An interesting development.  

I doubt we are going to explicitly state CVID.  I do not think that phrase and acronym will be found in the new US Korea policy.

Excerpts: “In the statement, the US and Japan agreed on four principles about North Korea: calling for North Korea to abide by UN Security Council resolutions, promoting the denuclearization of North Korea (rather than the Korean Peninsula), strengthening “deterrence to maintain peace and stability in the region” – implying more South Korea-US and Japan-US military exercises, and blocking proliferation.

But disagreements were also evident in the statement. Suga said in a press conference after the summit that the two countries had agreed on the complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles of all ranges, but that wasn’t included in the joint statement.

It would appear that South Korea and Japan are standing on either side of the US and yanking its arms in the opposite direction, with Seoul calling for gradual and phased denuclearization based on the Singapore joint declaration, and Japan pushing for CVID, an approach that North Korea has roundly rejected.

On Thursday, the day after Moon’s interview ran in the New York Times, Noh Kyu-duk, South Korea’s special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs, spoke on the phone with Sung Kim, the acting assistant secretary in the US State Department’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs.

In a press release, South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Noh and Kim’s phone call had “confirmed that close cooperation is taking place between South Korea and the US in regard to the US’s review of North Korea policy, which is now being wrapped up.” Seoul appears to have reiterated the position that Moon expressed in the interview during deliberations between these lower-level officials.

But it’s still uncertain to what extent the US will accommodate South Korea’s preferences and whether it will put off announcing the results of the review until after Moon visits the US.

 

8. Why are South Korea’s young men turning against Moon Jae-in and his ruling party?

SCMP · by Kim Ji-Hyun

Excerpt: “South Korea’s next presidential elections are set to be held in March 2022. Though young men appear to be deserting Moon’s ruling party, victory for the opposition is far from guaranteed.

“It’s too early to predict which party or politician could win the next presidential election,” said Bong Young-shik, a research fellow at Yonsei University Institute for North Korean Studies. “The game changer could come in November, when the government plans to achieve Covid-19 herd immunity. Given that the vaccination rate of the first dose is less than 5 per cent, it’ll be a very tough game for the ruling party.”

 

9.  Kim Jong Un absent from North Korea's Youth League Congress

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · April 29, 2021

A cause of concern? Or will we overreact with speculation?

Excerpt: “The youth league represents North Koreans ages 14 to 30, and retains about 5 million active members.

Kim attended the 9th congress of the youth league in 2016, but his name was not mentioned in state media Thursday.

South Korean analyst Cho Han-bum at the Seoul-based Korea Institute for National Unification told local news service News 1 Kim's non-attendance is unusual.

Some North Korea watchers in the South are raising concerns Kim could be engaging in other activities related to the military, including a potential launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile, according to News 1.”

 

10. Biden will meet with South Korea’s president on May 21.

The New York Times · by Madeleine Ngo · April 29, 2021

Will the new US Korea policy be unveiled before, during, or after the summit?

 

11. N.K.'s largest youth group drops late founder's name from title after 25 years

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 30, 2021

Interesting development. What does this mean?  What effect is the party trying to achieve.  I am sure this had to be approved by Kim Jong-un and coordinated with the Propaganda and Agitation Department.  There must be an intended message in this.

 

12. Korea to Support U.S.-Led Anti-China Alliance

english.chosun.com · April 29, 2021

Half pregnant?

Excerpts: "The U.S. is asking us to join a Quad Plus," a ruling party official said. "But we think we can cooperate with the Quad countries on a case-by-case basis in fields where we have a contribution to make." Another official said, "We're partially joining the Quad at the request of the U.S. because we need to secure more vaccines. But it's not full membership."

The government is wary of China, which has repeatedly asked Korea if it intends to join. Beijing accuses the Quad of being "cliquish" and taking a "cold-war-era approach."

It remains to be seen whether the halfway house the government has settled on will satisfy either side.

 

13. Woman in her 20s dies after beating from Yanggang Province detention center guard

dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · April 30, 2021

Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime must be held accountable for their horrific human rights abuses and crimes against humanity.

 

14. North Korea’s Generation Z: The Achilles Heel of Regime Stability

keia.org · by Hazel Smith · April 28, 2021

Internal and external threats.  But it is the internal threats that could bring down the regime (and unfortunately could also result in catastrophic decisions by the regime).  This is a very powerful conclusion.  I think this is why the regime has tried to take advantage of COVID and imposed the most draconian population and resources control measures in the modern era.

We need to assess this: Is there nascent resistance potential inside north Korea?

Excerpts: “Externally, the regime understands the nuclear program as providing a successful deterrent to foreign intervention. Its military strategy is supported by reliance on diplomatic protection from China and Russia that it counts on to prevent a United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing military force against the DPRK.

Domestically, the regime is floundering. The frequent panegyrics praising city youth who ‘volunteer’ to work in coal mines and cooperative farms after graduation reflect a regurgitation of past policies whose sell by date ran out in the famine years of the 1990s. It seems unlikely that the insistence on ‘more ideology’ as a substitute for access to decent work, food and living conditions will provide a sufficient motivating force for this new generation, whose understandings of the world are very different from those prescribed by that self-same ideology. The regime is correct in its assessment that Generation Z provides the Achilles heel of regime stability.

 

15.  Washington Post pivots to Asia with Seoul news hub

The Nikkei

Excerpt: “On Wednesday, the company announced details of the Seoul news hub, appointing Kendra Nichols from within the company as hub editor, and hiring Katerina Ang, who has been a contributing writer for Nikkei Asia, to be breaking-news editor.

The hubs in Seoul and London "are focused on covering the news wherever it takes place and doing so in the right time zone," Jehl said. Seoul will be a team of 10, while London will have nine staff, including four breaking-news reporters, two breaking-news editors, a visuals editor, an audience editor and at least one multiplatform editor.

Half of the breaking-news reporters will watch over U.S. news, while the other half covers international news. That breakdown reflects the function of the new hub. The goal is to both cover Asia news during the Asia daytime, and to relieve pressure from the U.S. team during their nighttime.

 

16.  Half of the Sinpo Fishing Company's fishermen being moved to military fishing company

dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · April 30, 2021

The military is the best functioning institution in north Korea.  And of course it wants to control economic activity and food procurement.

Excerpts: “In response to the complaints, the Ministry of Defense’s logistics department has promised to compensate the boat captains. Captains with diesel powered boats will receive 20 kilograms of soybeans while unpowered fishing boat captains will receive 15 kilograms of corn.

Despite this promise of compensation, boat captains still continue to sell off boats and boat parts because they believe the compensation is “ridiculously low” and because they do not want to suffer financial distress at the hands of the military.

“The Sinpo Fishing Company is no more if it gets divided up into two parts due to government policy,” the source said, adding, “People are angry because they are unsure about how they are supposed to survive when the military takes over farming and fishing activities.”

 

------------

 

“Revolutionary war is an antitoxin which not only eliminates the enemy’s poison but also purges us of our own filth.”

- Chairman Mao Zedong (Tse-tung)

 

"Peace is not absence of conflict, it is the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means."

- Ronald Reagan

 

"Do not think of knocking out another person's brains because he differs in opinion from you. It would be as rational to knock yourself on the head because you differ from yourself ten years ago."

- Horace Mann

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. US special operations chief for Europe heads to Ukraine in aftermath of Russian border buildup

2. The unexpected Pentagon chief

3. A civilian cybersecurity reserve corps is needed for the Pentagon and DHS, lawmakers from both parties say

4. The Marine Corps Is Kno4/29/2021 Korean News and Commentarywn as a Force of Young Warriors. That's About to Change

5. Lt Gen Slife to Senate: AFSOC at an ‘Inflection Point’ Requiring Transformation in Personnel, Acquisition

6. The U.S. Can’t Betray Its Best Friends in Afghanistan

7. The Proxy Gambit

8. The US Intelligence Community Needs a 'Wild Bill' Moment

9. The Right Way to Fight a Maritime War Against China

10. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Reality of Afghanistan

11. Analysis | Was China behind last October’s power outage in India? Here’s what we know

12. Congress demands answers on Afghanistan withdrawal

13. Washington Is Avoiding the Tough Questions on Taiwan and China

14. Give the U.S. Navy the Army’s Money

15. A New Coalition to Advance U.S. Global Interests

16. Let Taiwan into World Health Assembly

17. Supreme Court to Rule on Whether C.I.A. Black Sites Are State Secrets

18. Remarks by President Biden in Address to a Joint Session of Congress

 

1. US special operations chief for Europe heads to Ukraine in aftermath of Russian border buildup

Stars and Stripes · by John Vandiver · April 29, 2021

 

2. The unexpected Pentagon chief

Politico · April 28, 2021

 

3. A civilian cybersecurity reserve corps is needed for the Pentagon and DHS, lawmakers from both parties say

airforcetimes.com · by Rachel Cohen · April 28, 2021

Excerpts: “It’s unclear how DOD and DHS would opt to use that rapid-response workforce alongside their offensive and defensive cyber teams — including uniformed reservists — or whether cyber reservists would be held to similar training standards as typical military reservists. People who don’t show up for duty when called could have their pay withheld, among other possible penalties.

Five years after the program launches, lawmakers want the head of the Government Accountability Office to study whether the effort should be changed, extended or made permanent. The pilot project would automatically end six years after establishment, according to the bill.

The sponsors hope to pass their legislation as a standalone measure or as part of the 2022 defense policy bill, an aide said.

“Creating a reserve corps similar to our National Guard or Army Reserve will allow our national security agencies to have access to the qualified, capable, and service-oriented American talent necessary to respond when an attack occurs,” Blackburn said in the release. “The Civilian Cybersecurity Reserve pilot project represents a big step in strengthening America’s cybersecurity posture.”

 

4. The Marine Corps Is Known as a Force of Young Warriors. That's About to Change

military.com · by Gina Harkins · April 28, 2021

A culture change?

 

5. Lt Gen Slife to Senate: AFSOC at an ‘Inflection Point’ Requiring Transformation in Personnel, Acquisition

airforcemag.com · by Brian W. Everstine · April 28, 2021

Excerpts: “In 2020, AFSOC Airmen deployed to 62 nations for “engagements” with host militaries, while also flying through and/or landing in more than a dozen more. These agreements with “80-100” nations that U.S. special operations forces have can be “tremendous leverage” against the influence of countries such as Russia and China, Slife said.

“What I have found is that our Airmen aren’t motivated necessarily by killing and capturing terrorists. They’re motivated by relevance,” he said. “And so if the thing that makes them relevant to the nation is pursuing great power competition, you better believe they are all in on moving in that direction.”

 

6. The U.S. Can’t Betray Its Best Friends in Afghanistan

Bloomberg · by Editorial Board · April 28, 2021

We must recognize the moral hazard we create when working with indigenous forces. This must be taught in leadership courses throughout PME.  We must plan for the transition phase at the beginning of the campaign and those working with the indigenous forces must understand what is the transition plan and must know not to make promises (or make even implied promises) that cannot be kept. 

But we have done this so many times throughout our history from the tribes in Burma in WWI, guerrilla forces in the Philippines, Korean Partisans in the Korean War, the Hmong and Montagnards in Vietnam and others. It always amazes me that any indigenous forces still want to work with us.

 

7. The Proxy Gambit

mwi.usma.edu · by Alex Deep · April 28, 2021

Excerpts: “The outsourcing of military operations to state or nonstate proxies presents a host of tactical, logistical, strategic, political, legal, and ethical challenges. What Machiavelli observed about mercenaries and auxiliaries—that they are “dangerous . . . disunited, ambitious, and without discipline, unfaithful”—can apply to any group that has its own motives, especially when those motives include profit.

Proxies are difficult to control even when their motives align with those of their sponsors. They can, for example, take it upon themselves to go above and beyond the mission’s objectives. This was the case with Operation Condor, when Brazilian military and political elites, in collaboration with their regional allies, took it upon themselves to prosecute a cross-border program of repression against suspected communist, socialist, or even merely left-wing critics of each other’s authoritarian regimes. Operation Condor received support from the United States, but it went into overdrive particularly when the Latin American authoritarian regimes suspected Washington of going soft on communism under the newly elected president, Jimmy Carter.

Finally, there has been inadequate debate and reflection about the way the United States has used proxies in the past. Proxy warfare figured prominently during the Cold War. New work is shedding important light on the ways in which the United States cultivated and worked with friendly military officers in developing countries to marginalize anti-colonial forces. It applied what came to be known as the “Jakarta Method,” mass killings, abductions, and, more broadly, repression of left-leaning civilians through close collaboration with anticommunist military and paramilitary forces, as well as civilian groups.

 

8. The US Intelligence Community Needs a 'Wild Bill' Moment

thecipherbrief.com · by Ellen McCarthy and Matt Scott · April 28, 2021

 A very bold proposal. You might make the point that it should be the IC and the special operations community.

Conclusion: “Practical first steps today might include the stand up of a new OSS-like entity, one that is not tied to existing bureaucracies, led by someone who is highly-trusted by the President and Republicans, and who is not afraid of overcoming bureaucracy. The OSS-like entity might try piloting a new capability focused on trusted content delivery but using an entirely new collection, processing and dissemination model and infrastructure, perhaps designed from successful private sector endeavors. Key to this new office would be the ability to rapidly scale new technologies coming out of America’s emerging technology incubators, and truly harnessing America’s digital economy. Thinking outside the box, another option in the spirit of the OSS might be to fund and empower the State Department to be the public sector side of a new public-private information partnership. The State Department’s current embrace of open sources could further remove challenges associated with information sharing and classification.

Whatever approach this administration chooses to take it’s clear that stability and incremental investments will not be enough. We are in a global moment where the threats are incredible, and the American Intelligence Community is not currently up to the tasks ahead. We need a ‘Wild Bill’ moment.

 

9. The Right Way to Fight a Maritime War Against China

19fortyfive.com · by James Holmes · April 28, 2021

Excerpts: “Geography is a foe to China, fettering its nautical destiny. Beijing has to fret about gaining access to the Western Pacific high seas and waters beyond from the moment a warship or merchantman casts off lines in a Chinese seaport until the time it moors in a foreign port of call. China’s misery is America’s opportunity. The United States and its allies can deliberately compound China’s access dilemma by deploying along the first island chain and barring its access to the high seas through the straits that puncture the island chain. The more PLA commanders have to worry about marine access, the more they will disperse forces along the island chain—and the less firepower they will have to concentrate at any individual flashpoint cataloged by Admiral Stavridis.

A back-to-basics approach offers the allies their best chance of massing more combat power for a contingency than can China’s armed forces. Look to the masters of strategy for wisdom—and execute.”

 

10. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Reality of Afghanistan

ozy.com · by John McLaughlin · April 28, 2021

Conclusion: "As so often happens in foreign affairs, decision-makers must place bets on all these questions based on judgment, history, incomplete data and — inevitably — politics. The Afghan case is harder than most, and Biden deserves credit for at least deciding. For the other iron rule of foreign affairs is that failure to decide … is actually a decision. And usually not a good one."

 

11. Analysis | Was China behind last October’s power outage in India? Here’s what we know

The Washington Post · by Fiona Cunningham · April 29, 2021

Did they or didn't they?

Excerpts: “The PLA might not yet have the testing capabilities they desire to anticipate and manage all of the second-order effects of a cyberattack on critical infrastructure that would reverberate beyond its original target. A cyberattack could have caused an international outcry and Indian retaliation if the Mumbai outage had deprived hospitals of power for longer than backup systems could sustain.

Nevertheless, Chinese leaders’ incentives for restraint don’t rule out the possibility that a government-linked group or patriotic hackers might have disrupted the Mumbai electrical grid by accident or without official authorization. An attack could have slipped through despite the stricter oversight of PLA cyber operations since 2014, and non-PLA groups may be subject to different rules; at least one group linked to the Ministry of State Security reportedly still hacks for profit. And it’s also possible that China’s laws prohibiting individuals from hacking may not be enforced, especially when the target is a geopolitical rival.

While it’s not clear exactly what happened in Mumbai on Oct. 13, the speculation that it was a Chinese cyberattack has nevertheless galvanized India’s military to better counter Chinese cyber threats in the future.

 

12. Congress demands answers on Afghanistan withdrawal

The Hill · by Bradley Bowman and Maseh Zarif · April 28, 2021

Excerpts: “It is important to note that Section 1215 also includes a waiver that Biden could use to avoid submitting the report. To exercise that waiver, the president would need to certify in writing that not providing the information is in the “national security interests of the United States” — and would need to provide a detailed explanation justifying that assertion.

That would be a difficult argument for the Biden administration to make. After all, if a withdrawal by September that ignores conditions on the ground and the advice of commanders is in the national security interest, the Biden administration should be able to answer tough questions and defend the decision in the light of day.

If the Biden administration is unable or unwilling to do so, that sends a disturbing signal regarding the merit of the rationale for the withdrawal. Regardless, in the coming weeks and months, Congress should utilize all of its oversight and legislative powers to push the administration to minimize the damage to American national security that Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal is about to inflict.

 

13. Washington Is Avoiding the Tough Questions on Taiwan and China

Foreign Affairs · by Charles L. Glaser · April 28, 2021

Retrenchment???

“Retrenchment may not be getting the hearing it deserves because it clashes with the United States’ self-perception as the global superpower. For those who see the United States as the winner of the Cold War, the creator and leader of the liberal international order, and the protector of much of what is worth protecting, retrenchment is simply too jarring. This is a dangerous reflex. This attachment to a certain identity could act as a barrier to revising policy, leading the United States to insist on preserving the status quo when its material interests point in the opposite direction. Although China’s rise should not cause the United States to change its values, including respect for democracies, it should prompt it to update its self-image and accept some loss of status.

Most observers appear to believe that the United States is pursuing a cautious policy: after all, it is simply maintaining its existing commitments. Yet a declining power determined to preserve the status quo can in fact be engaging in very risky behavior. This is what the United States is doing today. Without acknowledging it, U.S. officials are accepting a great deal of risk, clinging to old commitments as the balance of power in East Asia shifts. The burden for sustaining the current policy should lie with its proponents, who should acknowledge the risks and spell out why they are warranted. Without having this debate, the United States will continue, almost on autopilot, to preserve its commitments in the region, even though what is likely called for is a long-overdue change in course.”

 

14. Give the U.S. Navy the Army’s Money

Foreign Policy · by Blake Herzinger · April 28, 2021

Sustain a navy and raise an army.

Excerpt: “The Navy’s need for a greater share of the defense budget will certainly be criticized as interservice rivalry or parochialism. But in terms of any contingency related to a rising China seeking to displace the order of the free world, there are no realistic options without a strong, revitalized Navy. To have all the modern tanks in the world surrounded by soldiers with augmented reality helmets stuck on U.S. shores or sunk hundreds of miles from land is not a winning scenario.

Active and retired naval strategists are increasingly fervent in their calls for recapitalization of the fleet—not to score points in some imagined interservice rivalry but because they know that if called on, the force may not merely be bloodied but may fail. Not for want of sailors or fighting spirit but for a simple lack of large gray ships ready to go into harm’s way.

 

15. A New Coalition to Advance U.S. Global Interests

WSJ · by Elliott Abrams

It is hard to argue with any of these principles from the Vandenburg Coalition.

Excerpts:

Vandenberg’s philosophy is based on six principles:

First, American security depends on leadership.

Second, a strong America is a safe America.

Third, strategic cooperation serves U.S. interests. 

Fourth, free and fair trade advances the prosperity and security of the American people.

Fifth, we support a proud U.S. foreign policy that champions American values without apology.

Sixth, foreign policy should be responsive to all Americans—not only those in Washington or with the clout to hire lobbyists. 

The Vandenburg Coalition:

 “I am hunting for the middle ground between these extremists at one end of the line who would cheerfully give America away and those extremists at the other end of the line who would attempt a total isolation which has come to be an impossibility.”

 

16. Let Taiwan into World Health Assembly

washingtontimes.com 

Yes.

 

17.  Supreme Court to Rule on Whether C.I.A. Black Sites Are State Secrets

The New York Times · by Carol Rosenberg · April 26, 2021

Excerpts: “The government argued that disclosures about the nature of the interrogations were different from ones about where they took place, notwithstanding the European court’s findings and press reports.

“In the world of clandestine intelligence operations, where tradecraft is deployed to cloak the true nature of activities and misdirect attention, things may be uncertain notwithstanding suppositions based on incomplete and circumstantial information,” said the government’s latest brief in the case, United States v. Abu Zubaydah, No. 20-827, which was filed in March.

Judge Richard A. Paez, concurring in the full Ninth Circuit’s decision not to rehear the case, wrote that courts should not blind themselves to what everyone knows.

“Given the overwhelming, publicly available evidence that Abu Zubaydah was detained at a black site in Poland, it is difficult to take seriously the suggestion that media outlets are untrustworthy and that the standards applied by other judicial bodies are inadequate,” he wrote. “Good grief, the president of Poland publicly acknowledged in 2012 that, during his presidency, Abu Zubaydah was detained in Poland by the C.I.A.”

 

18. Remarks by President Biden in Address to a Joint Session of Congress

Office of the US President-Address to Joint Session of Congress  · April 29, 2021

So many policy issues to be debated from his speech but he makes a strong case for democracy versus autocratic leadership in his conclusion.

 

----------

 

“Insurgents tend to ride and manipulate a social wave of grievances, often legitimate ones, and they draw their fighting power from their connection to a mass base. This mass base is largely undetectable to counterinsurgents, since it lies below the surface and engages in no armed activity”

- David Kilcullen

 

“Life is not a problem to be solved but a reality to be experienced.” 

- Soren Kierkegaard

 

“Give instructions only to those people who seek knowledge after they have discovered their ignorance.” 

- Confucius

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Military blames radar blind spot for inaccurate assessment of N.K. missiles

2. Building Materials Delivered to THAAD Base After U.S. Complaints

3. Defense Ministry Reveals Cowardice in THAAD Supplies

4. U.N. committee requests N. Korea provide explanation on human rights violations

5. State Dept.: Kim Jong Un should be held accountable for human rights abuses

6. Biden vows to cooperate with allies to address North Korea

7. It Is Time to Change Approach to North Korea

8. N. Korean officials cover costs for retired military officers' holiday meals through "donations" from ordinary people

9. North Korea sees a surge in soldiers frustrated with government policy deserting their posts

10. No sign of China backing for North Korean missile tests: experts

11. N.K.'s largest youth group calls for eradication of anti-socialist practices

12. S. Korea heading fast toward herd immunity after vaccinating 3 mln in 2 months

13. Minister calls first half 'most optimal' period for progress in stalled peace process

14. S'pore police investigating S'porean man wanted in US for allegedly doing business with North Korea

15. US, Japan and South Korea eye foreign ministers' meeting in May: Media

16. 10,000 North Korean Students Turn Themselves In For Having Watched K-Drama

17. S. Korea to give primary approval to self-funded aid projects when assistance to N. Korea resumes: official

18. On the Occasion of North Korea Freedom Week - United States Department of State

19. North Korea sunk Cheonan warship, Seoul says after suspended reinvestigation

20. Combined forces of S. Korea, U.S. fully ready to deter N. Korean threats: Milley

 

1. Military blames radar blind spot for inaccurate assessment of N.K. missiles

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 29, 2021

Blind spots could be reduced through participation in an integrated missile defense system and would be even more effective in a trilateral integrated missile defense systems with the ROK, Japan, and the US.

 

2. Building Materials Delivered to THAAD Base After U.S. Complaints

english.chosun.com

Our soldiers are defending South Korea with a capability the South Korean government does not provide and yet they are treated extremely poorly by those who they defend. But I do not blame the South Korean citizens who are protesting. I blame the professional agitators who are radicalizing the local citizens with lies.

Excerpt: "U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called their circumstance "unacceptable" when he met with Defense Minister Suh Wook in March."

 

3.  Defense Ministry Reveals Cowardice in THAAD Supplies

english.chosun.com

I do not blame MND. Its hands are tied by the Moon administration.

But there are so many issues with this problem. And this is a self-inflicted wound.

Excerpts: “The ministry insisted that the equipment delivered on Wednesday "has nothing to do with the improvement of" the THAAD battery itself. In May last year, it changed an outdated strike missile in the middle of the night and repeated that the replacement was "unrelated" to any improvement in the capability of the system. But what if it was? Is there anything wrong with improving the anti-missile system? Whose defense ministry is this, South Korea's or North Korea's?

The government also apparently sought China's "understanding" before the missile replacement last May. But South Korea is a sovereign nation and has absolutely no reason to ask China’s understanding every time it wants to change a lightbulb. The way the Moon Jae-in administration kowtows to China and North Korea is insane.

 

4. U.N. committee requests N. Korea provide explanation on human rights violations

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 29, 2021

We should not forget that a focus on human rights is an existential threat to the regime. Kim Jong-un must deny the human rights of the Koreans living in the north in order to keep himself in power. But I doubt that is the kind of "explanation" he will provide to the UN Human Rights Committee. 

 

5. State Dept.: Kim Jong Un should be held accountable for human rights abuses

UPI · by Thomas Maresca · April 29, 2021

Yes. Kim Jong-un must be held accountable. And those who enable him must be as well.

 

6. Biden vows to cooperate with allies to address North Korea

koreanjoongangdaily.com  · by Sarah Kim · April 29, 2021

Minister Lee is projecting (sanctions relief) though trying to present a balanced assessment (depending on progress toward denuclearization).

He likewise indicated there was “some possibility of flexibility” in the Biden administration’s Pyongyang policy and that it could be based on a “phased and simultaneous approach, including easing of sanctions depending on the progress in denuclearization.” 

 

7. It Is Time to Change Approach to North Korea

realclearworld.com · by Daniel DePetris

I support establishing normal relations with north Korea if and only if it is based on a clear understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and is a component of our superior political warfare strategy that is designed to defeat the regime's political warfare strategy. long con, and blackmail diplomacy (the use of threats, increased tensions, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions). 

Excerpts: “Critics will suggest that normalizing relations with the North is deeply irresponsible. Diplomatic contact, however, should be not be treated as a reward. Bilateral engagement is a normal part of statecraft. It can also provide both countries with a direct forum to share best practices in the nuclear realm, keep tensions from boiling over, establish rules of the road in the event of a crisis, and increase mutual understanding about one another’s respective policies.

The North Korea file is synonymous with failure for multiple U.S. administrations. If President Biden is more realistic about what he can accomplish and supports bold, common-sense reforms, he can break this string of failure and defend U.S. national security interests in the process.

 

8. N. Korean officials cover costs for retired military officers' holiday meals through "donations" from ordinary people

dailynk.com  · by Lee Chae Un · April 29, 2021

I would ask everyone who follows north Korea to reflect on this statement form the subtitle: "... retired military officers, some of whom are “true believers” who still hold Kim Il Sung’s "partisan struggle ideology" in their hearts"

 

9. North Korea sees a surge in soldiers frustrated with government policy deserting their posts

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · April 29, 2021

This could become a huge problem and may be an indicator of the future loss of coherency and support of the military.

I am sure these new "regular daily report system" will take the form of formations 3 times a day in which the three chains of control conduct a headcount. And if anyone is missing the soldier's immediate supervisors (squad, platoon leaders, company commanders) will be held accountable.

Note the problems with the frontline corps as well the RGB. A lot to digest here.

The other issue is the reduced party membership opportunity and the potential for the future of soldiers.

 

10. No sign of China backing for North Korean missile tests: experts

SCMP · by Minnie Chan

Of course I take what the Chinese analysts say with a grain of salt. However, based on the Chinese "3 No's" toward nK - no war, no instability and regime collapse, and no nukes, it is plausible that China does not support or back the nK missile launches. I think we are mistaken if we think China has a strong influence over Kim Jong-un. And because of this I think we have to consider how nK can be a "spoiler" in great power competition. While we try to get china to help us with th enK problem Kim actually may try to play both the PRC and the US off against each other all the while giving the appearance of remaining in the Chinese sphere of influence (and sustaining the PRC-DPRK alliance that is closer than lips and teeth).

 

11. N.K.'s largest youth group calls for eradication of anti-socialist practices

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 29, 2021

The number one priority for the regime is to ensure ideological purity. With that Kim can deny the human rights of the Korean people in the north in order to sustain the Kim family regime's power.

 

12. S. Korea heading fast toward herd immunity after vaccinating 3 mln in 2 months

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · April 29, 2021

Whoa. This headline seems like a major change in outlook. Perhaps this is the view of the semi-official news agency Yonhap.

 

13. Minister calls first half 'most optimal' period for progress in stalled peace process

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 29, 2021

I have not seen any previous discussion of this: "One of the efforts could be to get the Panmunjom Declaration ratified by the National Assembly," he said. "The unification ministry has almost completed its necessary internal preparations."

 

14. S'pore police investigating S'porean man wanted in US for allegedly doing business with North Korea

Strait Times

We need to keep at this.

 

15. US, Japan and South Korea eye foreign ministers' meeting in May: Media

Strait Times

A lot of alliance diplomacy is taking place - the military leaders of the 3 countries will soon meet in Hawaii. We have had a trilat meeting with the NSAs. We have had a Japan-US summit and soon a ROK-US summit. And now we have a trilat of foreign ministers.

Alliances are important to the US.

 

16. 10,000 North Korean Students Turn Themselves In For Having Watched K-Drama

koreaboo.com · April 29, 2021

Wow. Rule by fear and terror? I wonder how they will all be punished?

I asked an escapee (defector) this week about the moral hazard we create when we send information into the north. He said the people know the risks and are more than willing to take the risks. He said they are thirsty for information and need the information. He said we must continue and do much more.

 

17. S. Korea to give primary approval to self-funded aid projects when assistance to N. Korea resumes: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 29, 2021

Excerpts: “"Projects funded by local governments or solely funded by the nongovernmental organizations will have priority in getting approval," he added.

Earlier this month, a unification ministry official said Seoul is considering allowing local aid groups to resume assistance to Pyongyang as the country is showing increasing signs of easing its border restrictions with China.

 

18.  On the Occasion of North Korea Freedom Week - United States Department of State

state.gov · by Ned Price

It is good to see the excellent and important work of Dr. Suzanne Scholte recognized. This is the 18th year of nK Freedom Week I believe. Below the State Department Statement are my remarks that I gave at the opening session of Freedom Week on Monday.

 

Remarks for ​north ​Korean Freedom Week 26 April 2021

 David Maxwell,

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

 Information and influence are the keys to unlocking the prison that is north Korea. Dr Jung Pak of the State Department always asks: Who does Kim Jong-un fear more: The U.S or the Korean people living in the north? We can see that for the last seven decades it is the Korean people living in the north. From the Juche ideology to the veneration of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime to the Songbun system to oppress the Korean people, we can see how the regime is deathly afraid of the Korean people. And the only thing Kim Jong-un fears more is the Korean people armed with information: the truth about the outside world and the truth about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and its quest to dominate the Korean peninsula to ensure the perpetual survival of the Kim family regime while seeking to oppress all Koreans in the north and South.

 The Kim family regime’s rule is a blight on all humanity and one of the most tragic events in human history. The suffering caused by Kim Jong-un and the regime is a moral outrage on a scale that is difficult for the outside world to comprehend.

 We need to educate the Korean people in the north about their inalienable human rights of which they know very little. We need to educate those outside of Korea about the crimes against humanity being committed inside the north.

 But it is information that will unlock the gulags and the entire prison that incarcerates 25 million people inside north Korea. We need an aggressive, comprehensive, and holistic information and influence campaign to bring about change and to help the Korean people living in the north.

 But such a campaign is not simple and not without danger. I will be asking our heroic escapees about the potential moral hazard we create by sending information into north Korea. I will ask what are some of the most effective themes and messages to transmit to the people? How can the most intensive system of surveillance and control be defeated so that the people can obtain information? What are the weaknesses of the regime that can be exploited through information and what are the strengths of the people that we can reinforce? How can Americans and others help the Korean people in the north? And so much more if time permits.

 The UN Commission of Inquiry stated one of the many human rights violations in north Korea is the suppression of information among the people in the north. We all have a responsibility to help them get information. To get them the truth and to work to free 25 million fellow human beings from their slave-like existence. I will close with our US Special Forces motto; in Latin, “de oppresso liber.” In English “to free the oppressed.” Nowhere should that apply more than to the people inside north Korea.  Thank you.

 

19. North Korea sunk Cheonan warship, Seoul says after suspended reinvestigation

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim

It is about time. I wonder what coerced the Moon administration into finally admitting the facts.

 

20. Combined forces of S. Korea, U.S. fully ready to deter N. Korean threats: Milley

kdva.vet · by Byun Duk-kun · April 28, 2021

I think people overlook that General commanded the 1-506th Infantry at Camp Greaves, Korea in the 1990s. If you look at his uniform you can see the Currahee DUI over his right pocket barely visible above is foreign jump wings.

 

----------

 

“Insurgents tend to ride and manipulate a social wave of grievances, often legitimate ones, and they draw their fighting power from their connection to a mass base. This mass base is largely undetectable to counterinsurgents, since it lies below the surface and engages in no armed activity”

- David Kilcullen

 

“Life is not a problem to be solved but a reality to be experienced.” 

- Soren Kierkegaard

 

“Give instructions only to those people who seek knowledge after they have discovered their ignorance.” 

- Confucius

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1.  Secretary of Defense Statement on Senate Confirmation of Dr. Colin Kahl

2.  The U.S. Built the Afghan Military Over 20 Years. Will it Last One More?

3.  Biden’s Pentagon policy chief Colin Kahl confirmed with GOP senators absent

4. The force is still too small, Army chief says, and Afghanistan withdrawal won’t really help

5. Switchblade: Era of the loitering drone has come

6. US Special Ops buys AeroVironment’s anti-armour Switchblade 600 loitering munition

7. FDD | Biden, Congress Should Defend Missile Sanctions Imposed on Iran

8. Navy SEALs to shift from counterterrorism to global threats

9. Readiness in the Balance: U.S. Military Preparedness Amid Growing Threats

10. Admiral (Retired) William H. McRaven, Former Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command, and Nicholas Rasmussen, Former National Counterterrorism Center Director, Reflect on the Usama bin Ladin Raid

11. How to Turn the Tables on China? Use Their A2/AD Military Strategy Against Them

12. Twenty retired French generals call for MILITARY RULE in the country

13. Why Taiwan's Defense Strategy Calls for a Reassessment of Priorities

14. Biden Must Protect Women’s Rights After Afghanistan Withdrawal

15. REVEALED: The Scientists "Debunking" the Wuhan Lab Leak Theory Admit Being 'Collaborators' and Honorees of Chinese Communist Party.

16. Extremists Find a Financial Lifeline on Twitch

17. Uniting for Total Collapse: The January 6 Boost to Accelerationism

18. Biden Taps Frank Kendall To Be Air Force Secretary

19. Frosted Misery: A Navy SEAL in SERE School | SOF News

20. "Where's Your Tab" and other Sad Lieutenant Stories - The Company Leader

21. How China is stoking America’s racial tensions

22. China's people need the truth — America should help them get it

23. What the CIA Did (and Didn’t Do) in Soviet-Occupied Afghanistan

24. How Not to Win Allies and Influence Geopolitics

 

1. Secretary of Defense Statement on Senate Confirmation of Dr. Colin Kahl

defense.gov

We have a USD(P).

 

2. The U.S. Built the Afghan Military Over 20 Years. Will it Last One More?

The New York Times · by C. J. Chivers · April 28, 2021

More photos at the link.  This is depressing. 

 

3. Biden’s Pentagon policy chief Colin Kahl confirmed with GOP senators absent

Defense News · by Joe Gould · April 27, 2021

 

4. The force is still too small, Army chief says, and Afghanistan withdrawal won’t really help

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · April 27, 2021

Excerpts: “The Army accounts for about 25 percent of the Defense Department’s budget and about 35 percent of the active-duty end strength of the department.

“But we’re over 50 percent of the current operating tempo of the Department of Defense,” Whitley said. “We’re two-thirds of the readiness demands and the readiness priorities for warfighting of the Department of Defense.”

“The Army cannot sustain that level of commitment and operating tempo and readiness for such a wide range of things in a declining budget environment — and that’s the simple math,” Whitley said.

The force is still too small, Army chief says, and Afghanistan withdrawal won’t really help

Ending the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan won’t be of much use to Army planners sweating the size of the force, as fiscal constraints loom large over the service in the coming years.

The Army’s end-strength growth, once expected to top 500,000 active-duty soldiers, has slowed to a crawl in recent years and currently sits at roughly 485,000 troops.

“This is the same size Army that we had on 9/11, and when I take a look at what the requirements are, when I take a look at what historically we needed, and now that we’re in a time of great power competition, I’m very, very concerned about the size of the Army,” Chief of Staff Gen. James C. McConville said during a Tuesday discussion at the Center for a New American Security.

Much of the strain on the Army’s size comes from the combatant commands, where soldiers make up the bulk of military personnel deployed across the world. But the impending withdrawal from Afghanistan, in U.S. Central Command’s area of responsibility, won’t make much of a difference.

“The number of troops in Afghanistan is really not a significant amount,” McConville said when asked how the withdrawal would factor into end-strength woes.

Growing the Army also doesn’t appear to be happening in the current fiscal environment, unless the service cuts into readiness and modernization funding.

“The [Army] secretary and I both agree that we can’t do the things, as far as readiness and when it comes to modernization, if we were to grow the Army to the level that we think would reduce the stress of deployments for our troops,” McConville said. “What we’re trying to do is produce the best Army we can with the resources that we’re going to get.”

 

5. Switchblade: Era of the loitering drone has come

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · April 27, 2021

Conclusion: "Regardless, loitering munitions are likely to be fielded by more and more militaries in the 2020s given their versatility and effectiveness. This is only the beginning."

 

6. US Special Ops buys AeroVironment’s anti-armour Switchblade 600 loitering munition

flightglobal.com · by Garrett Reim · April 27, 2021

 

7. FDD | Biden, Congress Should Defend Missile Sanctions Imposed on Iran

fdd.org · by Richard Goldberg, Matthew Zweig, Behnam Ben Taleblu, Saeed Ghasseminejad

· April 27, 2021

The 14 page memo can be downloaded here:

 

8. Navy SEALs to shift from counterterrorism to global threats

AP · by Lolita C. Baldor

Excerpts: “Rear Adm. Hugh Howard, top commander for the SEALs, laid out his plans in an exclusive interview with The Associated Press. He said the Navy’s special operations forces have been focused on counterterrorism operations but now must begin to evolve beyond those missions. For the past two decades, many have been fighting in the deserts of Iraq and mountains of Afghanistan. Now they are focused on going back to sea.

That decision reflects the broader Pentagon strategy to prioritize China and Russia, which are rapidly growing their militaries and trying to expand their influence around the globe. U.S. defense leaders believe that two decades of war against militants and extremists have drained resources, causing America to lose ground against Moscow and Beijing.

 

9. Readiness in the Balance: U.S. Military Preparedness Amid Growing Threats

Video at this link.  

Transcript is at this link.  

 

10. Admiral (Retired) William H. McRaven, Former Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command, and Nicholas Rasmussen, Former National Counterterrorism Center Director, Reflect on the Usama bin Ladin Raid

ctc.usma.edu · April 27, 2021

11. How to Turn the Tables on China? Use Their A2/AD Military Strategy Against Them

The National Interest · by James Holmes · April 27, 2021

Excerpts: “Meanwhile the Pentagon should fashion access- and area-denial strategies of its own. PLA and Chinese Communist Party thinkers and practitioners obsess over maritime access for a reason: access deniers along the island chain could cut China off from the trading world.

To channel Mahan, sealing the straits permitting passage through the island chain would be like cutting the roots of a plant. It would deny the Chinese merchant fleet and PLA Navy access to the oceanic thoroughfare on which they rely to ply their trades. China’s import and export traffic—crucial to its prosperity, and thus to fulfilling the China Dream—could shrivel and die.

Its geopolitical standing could wilt in the process.

A U.S. access-denial strategy, then, would impose a hard fate on China. Which is the point. Threatening fearful consequences could deter Beijing from aggression tomorrow morning, and the next. If Xi Jinping & Co. wake up and choose forbearance enough days in a row, who knows? China, Asia, and the world could learn to coexist over time.

Lions need not lie down with lambs. Uneasy peace will do. Rediscovering the pivotal role of access will illumine the way.

 

12. Twenty retired French generals call for MILITARY RULE in the country

Daily Mail · by Danyal Hussain, Ross Ibbetson, and Danyal Hussain · April 27, 2021

Now here is a civil-military relations issue.

 

13. Why Taiwan's Defense Strategy Calls for a Reassessment of Priorities

The National Interest · by James Holmes · April 28, 2021

Excerpts: “As a result, Taiwan’s maritime strategy risks falling behind the times even as strongman Xi and other communist chieftains rattle their sabers. The same could be said of Taipei’s air strategy, predicated on high-end fighters such as F-16s and F-35 stealth fighters. This at a time when airfields and other infrastructure are increasingly untenable in the face of PLA Rocket Force ballistic missiles and PLA Air Force combat aircraft. Aviators too are susceptible to memes.

Nor, I should say, am I picking on Taiwan here. A meme spread throughout the U.S. Navy a quarter-century ago maintaining, in effect, that naval history had ended with the demise of the Soviet Navy. We no longer had to prepare to battle peer fleets to rule the main. We let the skills and hardware for major sea fights atrophy—and are now scrambling to restore our fighting ability now that an age of great-power competition and strife is upon us. No one is immune to mind viruses.

To evaluate Taiwan’s defenses, ask whether Taipei is asking too much of the armed forces—and whether the armed forces are remaking themselves adequately to cope with today’s brave new world.

 

14. Biden Must Protect Women’s Rights After Afghanistan Withdrawal

defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher

I am not sure how POTUS could do this nor can I see how diplomats can handle the issue. (Of course I do not think the US military presence will protect their rights either). This is an Afghan problem.

 

15. REVEALED: The Scientists "Debunking" the Wuhan Lab Leak Theory Admit Being 'Collaborators' and Honorees of Chinese Communist Party.

thenationalpulse.com · April 27, 2021

 

16. Extremists Find a Financial Lifeline on Twitch

The New York Times · by Kellen Browning · April 27, 2021

Excerpts: “Joan Donovan, a Harvard University researcher who studies disinformation and online extremism, said streamers who rely on their audience’s generosity to fund themselves felt pressured to continue raising the stakes.

“The incentive to lie, cheat, steal, hoax and scam is very high when the cash is easy to acquire,” she said.

 

17. Uniting for Total Collapse: The January 6 Boost to Accelerationism

ctc.usma.edu · April 27, 2021

Conclusion: “January 6 represented an apotheosis for this new extreme far-right accelerationist network, just as it has become a moment of reckoning for the mainstream of society. The Capitol insurrection no doubt helped to inspire the Biden administration’s heightened concern over domestic extremism,43 just as it has sparked renewed energy among those conservatives determined to retake control of the Republican Party from Trump loyalists.44 But it has also become a source of renewed momentum and energy for the extreme far-right. It is a unifying symbol, an example of a victory that almost was and might still be. It has empowered and emboldened its admirers while offering an opportunity to exercise the common terrorist tactic of studying and learning from failed actions.45

It remains unclear whether the coalition that formed on January 6 will ultimately reflect a fleeting, one-time moment in the history of the extreme right or if it will be the first among many examples of unifying events that even temporarily bring together groups and individuals from across a fragmented ideological spectrum. More cross-national research would be useful to determine whether and how accelerationist networks are communicating across borders, taking inspiration from each other’s violent acts, and finding ways to align to bring down their own national systems through violent and insurrectionist action. Finally, the events of January 6 signaled increased engagement from women, who have historically been less engaged in violent action on the extremist fringe, in ways that deserve more attention and study. Ongoing research will likely benefit from an exploratory spirit, since it appears that this “ecumenical” extreme far-right is itself in a mode of discovery and experimentation, as consolidation remains the order of the day and collapse the dream for tomorrow. CTC

 

18.  Biden Taps Frank Kendall To Be Air Force Secretary

defenseone.com · by Marcus Weisgerber

 

19. Frosted Misery: A Navy SEAL in SERE School | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · April 27, 2021

The US Army Special Forces SERE school at Fort Bragg (Camp MacKall) is the best school I attended in the Army.

 

20.  "Where's Your Tab" and other Sad Lieutenant Stories - The Company Leader

companyleader.themilitaryleader.com · by Joo Chung · April 26, 2021

 

21. How China is stoking America’s racial tensions

spectator.us

There should be no doubt the Chinese are doing this.  It is low hanging fruit and just too easy to do.

Excerpts: “Twitter, Facebook and YouTube do crack down on Chinese disinformation when it becomes impossible to ignore, as with COVID and Hong Kong, but their actions are inconsistent and patchy. Twitter and Facebook have now started labeling Chinese accounts as ‘state-affiliated’ but that has not dampened unease, even among Facebook’s own employees. Staff there are reportedly concerned the company is being used as a conduit for state propaganda, with a wave of sponsored posts of happy Uighurs, dancing, singing and generally thriving under Chinese rule.

Still, the Chinese embassy in Washington is having to do without its Twitter account, which was suspended in January after diplomats responded to evidence of forced sterilizations with a tweet claiming Uighur women had been ‘emancipated’ from extremism and were no longer ‘baby-making machines’. It was typical of China’s approach to try to whitewash an atrocity by appealing to feminism. In this case they misjudged their audience and overstepped the mark.

In targeting identity politics, China is stoking the most difficult and divisive issues in America. The absurd part is that Xi Jinping’s rule is built on an increasingly virulent ethnic nationalism. This fuels the CCP’s combative stances internationally — see, for instance, China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi unashamedly berating secretary of state Antony Blinken for America’s record on human rights.

At home, meanwhile, the Communist party crushes human rights and regards any cultural and religious difference as a threat. This is what drives the appalling repression in Xinjiang, where the party is seeking to neuter Uighur culture and subjugate it to the Han Chinese. China’s Communist leadership is no position to lecture anybody about racism. Yet they do.

 

22.  China's people need the truth — America should help them get it

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco, opinion contributor · April 27, 2021

I would argue the US is the only country in the world that has the ability to get the truth to all oppressed people through VOA, RFE/RL, RFA, etc.

 

23. What the CIA Did (and Didn’t Do) in Soviet-Occupied Afghanistan

newlinesmag.com · by Emran Feroz · April 26, 2021

Some history for consideration.

 

24. How Not to Win Allies and Influence Geopolitics

Foreign Affairs · by Audrye Wong · April 27, 2021

But we should be exploiting these issues for our own information and influence campaign.  Let's expose the Chinese strategy.

Excerpts: “This is not to say that Beijing’s attempts at economic statecraft should be written off. With the BRI, China is learning from its missteps. It has announced that it will curb “irrational” BRI investments, crack down on Chinese investors’ illegal activities abroad, and establish a new agency to coordinate foreign aid. At the BRI’s international forum in 2019, Chinese leaders went beyond their usual bland “win-win” rhetoric and for the first time emphasized mantras of quality infrastructure, zero corruption, and ample transparency. At the same summit, China’s central bank and finance ministry also announced new financing criteria that would take into account recipient countries’ existing debt loads.

On the flip side, growing illiberalism globally may give China more opportunities to gain influence in subversive ways. Particularly in countries teetering on the brink of authoritarianism, carrots that buy off corrupt elites could not only help them maintain their hold on power but also do long-term damage to political institutions. China could thus entrench authoritarianism—even if it is not actively trying to export autocracy. As a preventive measure, the United States and its partners can strengthen accountability institutions in recipient countries and provide technical expertise to help them negotiate with China. But framing the issue as a U.S.-led club of democracies competing against China’s authoritarian camp is almost certain to alienate many of those countries, which would prefer to avoid choosing between two rival powers.

In the end, China’s rapidly expanding overseas economic presence, particularly when accompanied by subversion and coercion, may exacerbate strategic fears across the globe. Chinese officials may still think that economic development naturally promotes goodwill and gratitude among recipients, but there is good reason to believe that they are wrong. China, it turns out, cannot count on automatically converting its growing economic clout into a new geopolitical reality.

 

------------

 

“Since 1945 there has been no Third World War. The development of nuclear weapons may prevent such a catastrophe. In the two World Wars words were one of a variety of weapons in the armory of the belligerent powers. In future, because of the advent of nuclear weapons, words may be the only arms which the super-powers can employ without risking annihilation.”

-  Charles Roetter, The Art of Psychological Warfare, 1914-1945

 

“Discussion of psychological warfare remains controversial because reexamination of its record leads in short order to a heretical conclusion: The role of the United States in world affairs during our lifetimes has often been rapacious, destructive, tolerant of genocide, and willing to sacrifice countless people in the pursuit of a chimera of security that has grown ever more remote. Rethinking psychological warfare's role in communication studies, in turn, requires reconsideration of where contemporary Western ideology comes from, whose interests it serves, and the role that social scientists play in its propagation. Such discussions have always upset those who are content with the present order of things. For the rest of us, though, they permit a glimmer of hope.”

- Christopher Simpson, Science of Coercion: Communication Research and Psychological Warfare, 1945-1960

 

“The biggest wars are the wars of thought."

The Oldest Soldier

- Fritz Leiber, Night Monsters

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Moon out of step with Biden ahead of Korea-US summit

2. US seizes Cameroon-flagged tanker for North Korea sanctions evasion

3. 'Salami tactics' vs. roadmap (north Korea)

4. Police clash with protesters over deliveries to Thaad base

5. North Korea’s Oil Procurement Networks

6. South Korea to push forward US-North Korea talks

7.  More verifiable data needed to consider publishing report on N.K. human rights situations: official

8. Anti-China sentiment growing in Korea

9. Korea Must Not Kowtow to Chinese Bullying

10. N. Korea conducts successful tests of reconnaissance and offensive-use "mini unmanned drones"

11. Moon Must Stop Blaming Others for His Vaccine Failure

12. Amid growing signs of Sino-N. Korean trade restarting, Sinuiju customs office partially reopened

13. Defense ministry seeks to secure new firing ranges for USFK

14. Russian help sought in delivering COVID-19 vaccines to North Korea

15. Kim Jong Un 'has official executed for importing Chinese medical kit'

16. JCS chairman heads to Hawaii for talks with U.S., Japanese counterparts

17. North Koreans blame China for their viral woes

18. US Defense Department to cautiously approach N. Korea policy

19. North Korea Bans Criticism of China and Prejudice Towards Ethnic Chinese Residents

20. North Korea Says it Won’t Make Chinese Wigs and False Eyelashes Once Trade Resumes

21. Limits of Public Diplomacy and Soft Power: Lessons from the THAAD Dispute for South Korea's Foreign Policy

 

1. Moon out of step with Biden ahead of Korea-US summit

The Korea Times · April 28, 2021

 

I hope this reporting is inaccurate and I am sure it is.  Otherwise if accurate this is not a good sign:

"Currently, there seems to be no active communication channels between the allies unlike previously when Lee Do-hoon, the former special representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs, and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun actively exchanged opinions on bilateral issues."

2. US seizes Cameroon-flagged tanker for North Korea sanctions evasion

lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com · by Michelle Wiese Bockmann

I have not seen other reporting on this.  I looked through the Justice Department  web site and could not find any reference to it.

But here is the bruised lede: “Taiwan is the centre in a black market for fuel sold illicitly to North Korea according to a joint report by US international defence and security think tank Royal United Services Institute, and C4ADS into North Korean subterfuge shipping.

Nine of the 50 foreign-flagged tankers observed visiting North Korea via satellite imagery in 2020 accounted for a third of all petroleum delivered to the republic, according to the report.

 

3. 'Salami tactics' vs. roadmap (north Korea)

The Korea Times · by Ahn Ho-young · April 27, 2021

Key point from Ambassador Ahn: “To meet that goal, we have to augment the combined allied capability for the four Ds: deter, defeat, defend and dissuade. At the same time, any action which may be interpreted as undermining the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence should be avoided. The "way station" ideas may be interpreted as decoupling the security interests of the U.S. from that of Korea and Japan, and thus undermine the credibility of extended deterrence.”

I think it would be very much worth re-reading Steve Biegun's speech at Stanford in 2019. My guess is that there will be parallels if not specific ideas incorporated into the new Biden Administration policy.

Here is the link to the 17 page transcript of his speech and the Q&A: 

4. Police clash with protesters over deliveries to Thaad base

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Ser Myo-Ja and Kim Jung-Seok

These US soldiers are living in terrible conditions because of the professional agitators who have radicalized the local citizens. These American soldiers are defending all of Korea from north Korean missile attack.  

The Korean government has to solve this and ensure routine logistics support can be provided to these soldiers.

Excerpts: “Over the past years, the protesters and police have been repeating their confrontations whenever U.S. and Korean militaries tried to make shipments into the base. In addition to the Feb. 25 scuffle, violent clashes also took place on Jan. 22 and Nov. 27, 2020.

While food and other lightweight goods are transported through helicopters, construction materials are moved by trucks. There is only one road to the base.

“Because of the delivery hardships, Korean and U.S. soldiers on the Thaad base are living inside shipping container homes, not barracks,” said a Defense Ministry source. Currently, about 400 Korean and American soldiers are stationed at the base.

 

5. North Korea’s Oil Procurement Networks

thediplomat.com · by Mercy A. Kuo · April 27, 2021

Excerpts: “North Korea is completely dependent on foreign sources of fuel for its economy, military, and weapons program. The U.N. Security Council first imposed caps on North Korea’s fuel imports in 2017, but it has breached them every year since.

North Korea’s illicit oil supply chain relies on both foreign and North Korean tankers participating in a “shuttle system” in which fuel from onshore facilities is transferred over successive STS [ship-to-ship] transfers before being delivered directly to North Korea. Effectively, we’re seeing what anti-money laundering specialists call “layering” in financial transactions, where each successive step in the supply chain makes it harder for investigators to connect North Korea to the point of original sale on shore. Our analysis suggests that transnational smuggling syndicates orchestrate these complex deliveries, not only for North Korea but also for others in a vibrant regional black market for oil.

...

One of the leading institutions in this effort whose mission may benefit from greater information sharing and integration with publicly available information is the Enforcement Coordination Cell (ECC). The ECC is the multinational coalition led by the U.S. and its partner countries in the Five Eyes alliance (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.K.) as well as France, Japan, and South Korea that monitors DPRK maritime sanctions evasion, including tracking the tankers supplying illicit fuel to Pyongyang. The ECC generates a wealth of intelligence on fuel smuggling activities in the region, which should be regularly declassified to better inform non-member states (including China and Taiwan), the U.N., and stakeholders in the finance, shipping, and oil industries about the environment in which DPRK oil procurement networks operate. Given the complex and transnational nature of the problem, the flexibility offered by publicly available information can provide a powerful supplementary capability to governments to engage a broader range of stakeholders.

 

6. South Korea to push forward US-North Korea talks

The Korea Times · April 28, 2021

Again, I do not think the US needs a push.  I think the new Biden Administration Korea policy will call for talks.  The problem is Kim Jong-un who has refused to allow substantive working level talks for nearly three years.

However, I do not think President Biden (or any president) should meet with Kim until there is a substantive agreement worked out at the work level.  On the other hand I doubt very much Kim would agree to a summit without a concrete promise that the US will lift sanctions in return for the north's promise to talk. We must not lift sanctions unless and until Kim Jong-un takes verifiably steps toward denuclearization.

 

7. More verifiable data needed to consider publishing report on N.K. human rights situations: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 28, 2021

The recent US State Department report has a significant amount of data (). The Committee for Human RIghts in North Korea has a large amount of useful information and the State Department incorporates the committee's information into it report.

The problem is the ROKG is laboring under the misguided assumption that if it does not address north Korean human rights that it will be able to focus on the security situation and north-South engagement and it will cause Kim to somehow agree to negotiate in good faith.

 

8. Anti-China sentiment growing in Korea

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo · April 28, 2021

China's actions reveal its true nature and the Korean people are seeing China for the bully and threat it really is.

 

9. Korea Must Not Kowtow to Chinese Bullying

english.chosun.com

China's true nature.

 

10. N. Korea conducts successful tests of reconnaissance and offensive-use "mini unmanned drones"

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · April 28, 2021

There should be no doubt of Kim's intention to improve his warfighting capabilities across the spectrum.  It is not just nuclear weapons and missiles.

 

11. Moon Must Stop Blaming Others for His Vaccine Failure

english.chosun.com

I think the press will be unrelenting in its vaccine criticism.

 

12. Amid growing signs of Sino-N. Korean trade restarting, Sinuiju customs office partially reopened

dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · April 28, 2021

Excerpts: “The goods, however, have already been paid for by North Korean entities, which means that they are not considered “aid” from China.

Most of the goods are food items such as condiments, sugar, soybean oil, and flour – all products that witnessed price spikes in North Korea following the closure of the Sino-North Korean border in January 2020. Their import into North Korea will likely impact market prices for these items.

These goods will likely be sent to Pyongyang, Pyongsong, and other areas in the interior of the country after being transported through Sinuiju.

As such, it is likely that other types of Chinese food products being sold in North Korea will continue to trade at higher-than-normal prices for the time being.

Daily NK’s source also reported that the New Yalu River Bridge, which connects Dandong and Sinuiju, will open after June. “The road on the North Korean side is still unpaved,” he said, adding, “It appears [the authorities] will continue construction on the road.”

 

13. Defense ministry seeks to secure new firing ranges for USFK

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 28, 2021

This is critically important.  The north-South Comprehensive Military Agreement and civilian encroachment on training areas has reduced the ability of US forces to conduct adequate training to maintain certification and qualifications.  

A long term solution sounds good but what are we going to do to meet the current readiness requirements?

Excerpts: “In a report presented to the National Assembly, the ministry said that it will push to secure large-scale training sites as replacements of the existing ranges as part of its longer-term plan to resolve ongoing conflicts between the USFK and residents.

Those new sites would have "a buffer zone" to help minimize noise and safety concerns, it added.

 

14. Russian help sought in delivering COVID-19 vaccines to North Korea

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · April 28, 2021

 

15.  Kim Jong Un 'has official executed for importing Chinese medical kit'

Daily Mail · by Michael Havis · April 28, 2021

I guess this is one way to hold acquisition officials accountable. I wonder if acquisition reform is as hard in north Korea as it is in the US?

The true nature of the Kim family regime.  But what is interesting is that Chinese equipment is not good enough for Kim Jong-un.  It has to be European.

Also remember the hospital was supposed to be completed by last October.

 

16.  JCS chairman heads to Hawaii for talks with U.S., Japanese counterparts

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · April 28, 2021

Another positive development in the trilateral relationship.  If it was left up to the ROK, Japan, and US militaries there would be a very strong and effective trilateral military alliance.  But you cannot separate the politics, particularly the domestic politics, from the situation.

 

17. North Koreans blame China for their viral woes

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · April 27, 2021

For all those who really believe the PRC-DPRK alliance is closer than lips and teeth.

 

18.  US Defense Department to cautiously approach N. Korea policy

donga.com · April 27, 2021

DOD cannot get out ahead of the Administration.

 

19.  North Korea Bans Criticism of China and Prejudice Towards Ethnic Chinese Residents

rfa.org · Jeong Yon Park

Again there is no love between the Korean people and the Chinese.

 

20. North Korea Says it Won’t Make Chinese Wigs and False Eyelashes Once Trade Resumes

rfa.org  · Jieun Kim

 

21. Limits of Public Diplomacy and Soft Power: Lessons from the THAAD Dispute for South Korea's Foreign Policy

keia.org · Maximilian Ernst · April 26, 2021

The 13 page essay can be downloaded here

 

----------

 

“Since 1945 there has been no Third World War. The development of nuclear weapons may prevent such a catastrophe. In the two World Wars words were one of a variety of weapons in the armory of the belligerent powers. In future, because of the advent of nuclear weapons, words may be the only arms which the super-powers can employ without risking annihilation.”

-  Charles Roetter, The Art of Psychological Warfare, 1914-1945

 

“Discussion of psychological warfare remains controversial because reexamination of its record leads in short order to a heretical conclusion: The role of the United States in world affairs during our lifetimes has often been rapacious, destructive, tolerant of genocide, and willing to sacrifice countless people in the pursuit of a chimera of security that has grown ever more remote. Rethinking psychological warfare's role in communication studies, in turn, requires reconsideration of where contemporary Western ideology comes from, whose interests it serves, and the role that social scientists play in its propagation. Such discussions have always upset those who are content with the present order of things. For the rest of us, though, they permit a glimmer of hope.”

- Christopher Simpson, Science of Coercion: Communication Research and Psychological Warfare, 1945-1960

 

“The biggest wars are the wars of thought."

The Oldest Soldier

- Fritz Leiber, Night Monsters

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. Agenda at the coming ROK-US summit

2. Sanctions and food shortages raise fears of North Korean famine

3. Biden Is Reviewing US Policy in North Korea. The Brutal Sanctions Must End.

4. U.S. must be ready to make concessions to N. Korea to advance denuclearization: lawmaker

5. Moon needs to show Biden what is possible to denuclearize N. Korea: Andy Kim

6. Unification minister urges N. Korea to implement peace agreements on summit anniversary

7. Moon says time approaching for resuming dialogue with North Korea

8. South Korea's 'anti-leaflet law' a sign of alarming 'democratic decay,' Chris Smith warns

9. My close encounters with North Korea: Drifting perilously close to shore and Kim's 'night on the town'

10. Falling in Love Again: U.S.-North Korean Relations and the Biden Administration

11. Getting North Korea Back to the Table

12. South Korean POW Who Was Held in North

13. North Korea’s Economy Seen Barely Growing as Pandemic Pain Lasts

14. Nonconformist Youn Yuh-jung: S. Korea's First Oscar-winning Actress

 

1. Agenda at the coming ROK-US summit

donga.com · April 27, 2021

Interesting list of issues desired by the Korean public.

 

2. Sanctions and food shortages raise fears of North Korean famine

The Telegraph · by Russell Lynch,

I will continue to beat this horse. It is not sanctions that are causing the suffering. It is the deliberate policy decisions made by Kim Jong-un.

 

3. Biden Is Reviewing US Policy in North Korea. The Brutal Sanctions Must End.

truthout.org · by Simone Chun · April 26, 2021

No. It is the brutal dictatorship that must end. The sanctions are not brutal. Kim Jong-un could solve these problems if he chose to prioritize the welfare of the Korean people in the north over the nuclear and missile program, the military, and the regime elite.

 

4. U.S. must be ready to make concessions to N. Korea to advance denuclearization: lawmaker

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 27, 2021

With all due respect to Rep Kim: Concessions relief = appeasement. Concessions relief means success for Kim Jong-un's blackmail diplomacy, long con, and political warfare strategy. It means Kim Jong-un will simply double down on his strategy and tactics because he will assess they work.

 

5. Moon needs to show Biden what is possible to denuclearize N. Korea: Andy Kim

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 27, 2021

Rep. Kim seems to be making the same strategic assumptions that the Moon administration is making, namely, that Kim Jong-un shares President Moon's vision of a peace agenda. This fails to understand the true nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime which includes as the priority, the domination for the Korean peninsula under northern control to ensure the survival of the Kim family regime. 

 

6. Unification minister urges N. Korea to implement peace agreements on summit anniversary

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 27, 2021

This is simply another testament to the fact the Kim family regime has never executed any agreements in good faith.

 

7. Moon says time approaching for resuming dialogue with North Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · April 27, 2021

Why does President Moon put the onus on us? We have been willing to talk for the past three years and I am positive the new Biden Administration Korea policy will call for dialogue. It is Kim Jong-un who refuses to negotiate and instead continue his blackmail diplomacy to increase tensions, make threats, and conduct provocations to try to gain political and economic concessions.

 

8. South Korea's 'anti-leaflet law' a sign of alarming 'democratic decay,' Chris Smith warns

christianpost.com · by Emily Wood · April 26, 2021

Excerpt: "Co-chair of the Human Rights Commission, Rep. Chris Smith, R-N.J., noted that South Korea's commitment to human rights "stands in stark contrast to the Kim family’s brutal dictatorship to the North in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Nevertheless, surveying the state of political and civil rights in the Republic of Korea, I must say that I am alarmed by … ‘South Korea’s democratic decay.’"

 

9. My close encounters with North Korea: Drifting perilously close to shore and Kim's 'night on the town'

9news.com.au · by Michael Smith

Some interesting anecdotes.

 

10. Falling in Love Again: U.S.-North Korean Relations and the Biden Administration

The National Interest · by William L. d’Ambruoso · April 26, 2021

Does international relations theory explain north Korea and the Kim family regime and can it guide us to securing our interests on the Korean peninsula?

Can trust be established among the players in Northeast Asia?

Conclusion: “Multiple foreign policy schools point in the same direction: We can live with a nuclear North Korea, possibly with higher levels of cooperation than before. It’s far too early to judge the Biden team’s approach, but to date, the administration is not showing very much creativity. Biden himself has refused to meet with Kim and has stipulated that any talks must be about denuclearization. Biden may be interested in a breakthrough, but it is difficult to see how this approach will produce one. Settling for a rerun of something akin to Obama’s strategic patience policy will put relations somewhere between the long U.S.-Cuba-style impasse and war. U.S. policymakers should strive for better.

If North Korea tests one of its missiles capable of reaching the U.S. homeland soon, critics will reiterate their fears that North Korea will be able to strike out in anger because now the United States will not be willing to risk San Francisco to protect Seoul. But the United States has faced this problem already, and on worse terms. From North Korea’s perspective, it makes no sense to attack more powerful neighbors in the faint hope that an even mightier foe will stand aside. As with the Soviet Union before it, North Korea will continue to have a strong interest in keeping the peace.

Near the end of the Cold War, Jervis wrote of U.S. nuclear policy, “Whether we like it or not, the common defense now extends to adversaries as well as to allies.” Nuclear weapons can sometimes be the tie that binds, and the United States must now be invested in the sanity, restraint, and fundamental comfort of Kim’s regime. In the long run, overlapping interests between North Korea and its current adversaries may grow, and denuclearization may follow or coincide. In the meantime, however, the United States should begin building trust on the thin slice of mutual concern in avoiding catastrophe. It’s a start.

 

11. Getting North Korea Back to the Table

democracyjournal.org ·Duyeon Kim · April 26, 2021

Some very useful recommendations from Duyeon Kim. Many are very sound and logical. The fourth one; however, should cause us to ask whether it is realistic given the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. But I do hope many of these are incorporated into the Biden Administration's Korea policy.

 

Recommendations:

Appoint an experienced envoy with clout who is empowered, has the President and secretary of state’s ear, and is in charge of negotiations and briefings. 

 

Recognize that everything is a negotiation that will take months and years

 

Be more deliberate, less reactive, and regularly test assumptions and cognitive biases. Be open to bold creative methods, surprises, and tactical adjustments. 

 

Seek to negotiate a comprehensive denuclearization-peace roadmap, or an initial deal first that explicitly agrees on end goals, based on an action-for-action incentive system.

 

Engage in proportionate bargains and avoid giving up too much too soon.

 

Regularly consult with allies and partners, and factor in implications for the region.

 

Establish a gray-zone strategy and impose penalties on all bad behavior. 

 

Prepare for crisis scenarios and black swans.

 

12. South Korean POW Who Was Held in North

East Asia Research

A short summary with some key points that are very interesting. It is sad to think that there may still be prisoners in the north suffering since the Korean War.

 

13. North Korea’s Economy Seen Barely Growing as Pandemic Pain Lasts

Bloomberg · by Sam Kim · April 26, 2021

Kim's policy decisions stymie growth.

 

14. Nonconformist Youn Yuh-jung: S. Korea's First Oscar-winning Actress

Barron's · by Claire LEE

Quite an impressive lady with an unique story of someone who beat the odds.

 

------------------

 

 

"And that's probably one of my biggest gripes with the Internet, that it settles for mediocrity and disinformation, which puts all information on the same level. Everything has the same value, whether it's Albert Einstein speaking, or [email protected]."

- Harlan Ellison

 

"Among all the world’s races…Americans are the most prone to misinformation...so much of what they believe is wrong."

John Kenneth Galbraith

 

"As long as anger, paranoia and misinformation drive our political debate, there are unhinged souls among us who will feel justified in turning to violent remedies for imagined threats."

- David Horsey

 

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. The Ease of Tracking Mobile Phones of U.S. Soldiers in Hot Spots

2. The Spy in Your Pocket

3. We’ve Been Here Before: Learning From the Military’s History with White Nationalism

4. China’s Irregular Approach to War: The Myth of a Purely Conventional Future Fight

5. Intelligence and the Tyranny of Process

6. Spy chiefs look to declassify intel after rare plea from 4-star commanders

7. U.S. intelligence community to create center to address foreign malign influence

8. China and US to Send in New Ambassadors

9. China Raises Scrutiny on Companies With New Anti-Spying Rules

10. Pentagon Tracking 14 Cases of Heart Inflammation in Troops After COVID-19 Shots

11. No, SOCCENT Twitter wasn’t hacked as the command initially said

12. A Risky Bet? The U.S. Army of the Future Will Be Electric

13. Poll: Majority of Americans more concerned about voter access than ineligible voters

14. After Failures to Curb Sexual Assault, a Move Toward a Major Shift in Military Law

15. U.S. to share up to 60 million vaccine doses amid pressure to aid desperate countries

16. Addressing threats to U.S. national security

17. U.S. to Share AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine Doses With World

18. American Vets See Echoes of Vietnam in Afghanistan Withdrawal Plan

19. Opinion | Why The New York Times Is Retiring the Term ‘Op-Ed’

20. US could seek ‘expeditionary’ base deal with India

21. Are U.S. Bases in Asia Vulnerable to Chinese Missiles? Very.

22. OPINION: Suga-Biden summit: Rekindling confidence in the U.S.-Japan alliance

23. What are the Top 10 Sources of Threats to America?

24.  How to Think About Counterinsurgency After Afghanistan

25. US Army to Replace Criminal Investigations Chief In Wake of Guillen’s Death

26. How the Army uses the West Virginia wilderness to find out who has what it takes to join Delta Force

 

1. The Ease of Tracking Mobile Phones of U.S. Soldiers in Hot Spots

WSJ · by Byron Tau

COMSEC. Communications security.  Digital exhaust. The end of cell phone use for the troops?  All smart devices?  Anything that connects to the network?

 

2. The Spy in Your Pocket

cdrsalamander.substack.com · by CDR Salamander

 

3. We’ve Been Here Before: Learning From the Military’s History with White Nationalism

warontherocks.com · by Simone Askew, Jack Lowe, Nette Monaus, and Kirsten L. Cooper · April 27, 2021

Conclusion: "Finally, the most important lesson is that policy updates alone are ineffective without continued commitment from military and civilian leadership. It takes more than words. New, centralized bureaucratic structures, robust strategies, and better processes are needed to create a standardized mechanism for reporting and recording incidents of extremism within the military. The absence of this type of data collection has left military leaders without the information they need to even understand this problem. Our academic research team is working to remedy one aspect of this information deficiency by developing a historical database of incidents with confirmed ties to the military and white nationalism in the hopes of mapping past patterns of behavior and response. Our database is limited only to publicly reported incidents and currently has over 130 identified entries and over 300 cases found in de-identified reports, forming the largest single compilation of such incidents. Yet, based on recent reporting that the FBI opened 143 investigations into extremist activity among current and former military members in 2020 alone, our database and the public record capture only a small sliver of the true extent of the problem. Austin’s Feb. 5 memo called for a “concerted” and “sustainable” effort to “eliminate the corrosive effects … [of] extremist ideology.” The military can learn from its own history to make this call a reality."

 

4. China’s Irregular Approach to War: The Myth of a Purely Conventional Future Fight

mwi.usma.edu · by David Knoll · April 27, 2021

Yep what they said.  There seem to be many in the US military industrial complex who long for a 'simple" conventional force on force fight.  Probably a bad assumption.

As I have written:

America may not be interested in irregular, unconventional, and political warfare but IW/UW/PW are being practiced around the world by those who are interested in them – namely the revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations.

-With no apologies to Leon Trotsky

 

We will need to get the assumptions about warfighting right in the next NDS.

Conclusion: "Department of Defense leaders would do well to consider these threats as they refine US approaches to competition and warfighting. Irregular warfare should not be treated as a separate domain, specific to counterinsurgency and counterterrorism, segmented off and studied by a niche community of specialists. Instead, the full spectrum of irregular warfare capabilities should be part of adversary threat estimates and incorporated into large-scale conventional wargames. As the military services exercise their distributed concepts, they should anticipate that adversary forces will combine advanced ISR, long-range precision munitions, and irregular warfare activities to target US forces, allies, and partners operating within these constructs. Acknowledging the full scope of conflict will better prepare the US military for the modern irregular warfare concept that Chinese forces have already begun employing in great power competition."

 

5. Intelligence and the Tyranny of Process

mwi.usma.edu · by Addison McLamb · April 27, 2021

Conclusion: “In Greek mythology, Poseidon’s son Procrustes was oddly cruel: he invited guests to spend the night in a bed, then stretched their bodies (if too short) or cut off their legs (if too tall) to fit more perfectly. It is an infamously brutish illustration of the asinine tendency to force all things—irrespective of variety—to conform to one standard. In intelligence, solving different problems requires different methodologies, and trying to benchmark tactical problem solving to one deductive process hardens the analytical ceiling of MI soldiers. We have a deep bench of talented analysts—officer and enlisted alike—who are ready and willing to think hard in tackling the next wave of national security issues. The process to help them win might not be another process at all.

 

6. Spy chiefs look to declassify intel after rare plea from 4-star commanders

POLITICO  · April 26, 2021

I think the 4 stars have it right.

 

7. U.S. intelligence community to create center to address foreign malign influence

CBS News · by Olivia Gazis

A follow-on to the 4 star letter.  I think this could be a good development and a path forward for dealing with the malign influence.  As Sun Tu says: "Thus what is of supreme importance is. to attack the enemy's strategy."  In my mind the first step in attacking the enemy's strategy is to identify and expose it.  And in the information domain exposing the enemy's strategy who would come under its malign influence is an important line of defense.  The general public is the target of the much of the malign influence; therefore, they need to be provided the tools for self defense.  

 

9. China Raises Scrutiny on Companies With New Anti-Spying Rules

Bloomberg · by Bloomberg News · April 27, 2021

Mirror imaging?

Excerpts: “The regulation didn’t specify which industries or companies will be on the list, but it said the list will be drawn up based on the level of confidentiality that the industry involves, the degree of foreign involvement, and whether there have been previous incidents that endangered national security, according to Global Times.

To carry out anti-espionage missions and eliminate the hidden dangers of foreign espionage, the regulation also gives national security organs access to buildings, internal materials, electronic kits, facilities, or computers and information systems of the companies involved, the report said.

China’s state security authorities will make further efforts to “organize and mobilize all social forces to jointly prevent and curb espionage activities and other acts hurting national security to strengthen national security shield,” Xinhua said.

 

10. Pentagon Tracking 14 Cases of Heart Inflammation in Troops After COVID-19 Shots

military.com · by Patricia Kime · April 26, 2021

Uh oh. We just received our second Pfizer vaccination yesterday.  I wonder if these 14 had already been exposed to COVID before they received the vaccinations?

Excerpts: “The rare disorder, usually caused by a virus, has been linked to COVID-19. But following a number of reports from Israel of patients developing the inflammation in conjunction with receiving vaccines, the Israeli Health Ministry is exploring a possible link, Israel's Channel 12 reported Friday, according to the Jerusalem Post.

Myocarditis is an inflammation of the heart muscle, the myocardium, that can reduce the heart's ability to function or cause abnormal heart rhythms. The first report of myocarditis in a patient who received a COVID-19 vaccine was published in Israel on Feb. 1.

 

11. No, SOCCENT Twitter wasn’t hacked as the command initially said

militarytimes.com · by Howard Altman · April 26, 2021

The first report is always wrong.

 

12. A Risky Bet? The U.S. Army of the Future Will Be Electric

19fortyfive.com · by ByCaleb Larson · April 26, 2021

Conclusion: "Though the Army’s electric vehicle initiative is perhaps not quite as far along as they’d like, the Cohort Program could quickly change where the Army program currently is — either way, the Army of the future will be electric."

 

13. Poll: Majority of Americans more concerned about voter access than ineligible voters

NBC News · by Carrie Dann · April 27, 2021

Because most American support democracy.

 

14. After Failures to Curb Sexual Assault, a Move Toward a Major Shift in Military Law

The New York Times · by Jennifer Steinhauer · April 27, 2021

I am pretty sure we are going to see a major change to the UCMJ process in this area.

 

15.  U.S. to share up to 60 million vaccine doses amid pressure to aid desperate countries

The Washington Post  · by Tyler Pager, Annie Linskey and Emily Rauhala  · April 26, 2021

 

16. Addressing threats to U.S. national security

washingtontimes.com · by Joseph DeTrani

Excerpts: “One of the many strengths of our system is the transparency the public expects from our government to provide routine and timely updates on the status of the threats and how they are being managed. Also expected is a responsible media disseminating this information to the public.

...

These are just some of the national security issues affecting the U.S. Each impacts the well-being of all Americans. And that means the public has a need-to-know what the government is doing to address, mitigate and prevent these country-specific and transnational issues from affecting the security of the U.S.

The annual threat assessment from the intelligence community is an excellent annual summary of the international threats to the U.S. How the government is managing these threats should be the substance of a daily dialogue with the American people.

 

17. U.S. to Share AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine Doses With World

WSJ · by Sabrina Siddiqui and Jessica Donati

Excerpts: “India’s epidemic also brought renewed focus on the disparity in vaccine access between developing countries and wealthier nations.

The new wave of infections in India, which began in March, came after a loosening of restrictions and brought fresh criticism toward Mr. Modi and his government for participating in large political rallies and encouraging mass religious gatherings even as cases were on the rise.

Mr. Modi’s government has also come under scrutiny for ordering Twitter Inc., Facebook Inc. and Instagram to block about 100 social-media posts criticizing its handling of the surge, prompting public anger and allegations of censorship.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that efforts by the Indian government to block social-media criticism “certainly wouldn’t be aligned with our view of freedom of speech around the world.”

U.S. to Share AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine Doses With World

Biden administration to help India fight surge in coronavirus, readying oxygen shipments

 

18.  American Vets See Echoes of Vietnam in Afghanistan Withdrawal Plan

WSJ · by Michael M. Phillips and Nancy A. Youssef

Excerpts: “Many Afghanistan vets are glad to see U.S. troops return home and the flow of casualties come to a stop. At the same time, they wonder if the blood and treasure were well spent in a war that, if not a loss, certainly wasn’t a victory.

Mr. Nicholas has confronted for years the ambivalence of such unsatisfying conclusions and allies left behind to face the consequences. “The same thing that happened in Vietnam is happening here,” said Mr. Nicholas, now 68 and living in Green, Ohio.

“They’ll say we accomplished great things,” he said. “I say we accomplished nothing.”

American Vets See Echoes of Vietnam in Afghanistan Withdrawal Plan

U.S. troops who fought in conflicts decades apart see their country leaving behind wars unfinished and allies to face the consequences.”

 

19.  Opinion | Why The New York Times Is Retiring the Term ‘Op-Ed’

The New York Times · by Kathleen Kingsbury · April 26, 2021

Excerpts: “That important mission remains the same. But it’s time to change the name. The reason is simple: In the digital world, in which millions of Times subscribers absorb the paper’s journalism online, there is no geographical “Op-Ed,” just as there is no geographical “Ed” for Op-Ed to be opposite to. It is a relic of an older age and an older print newspaper design.

So now, at age 50, the designation will be retired. Editorials will still be called editorials, but the articles written by outside writers will be known going forward as “Guest Essays,’’ a title that will appear prominently above the headline.

Op-Ed has had a great run. It became a standard for the rest of our industry, and enormously popular among readers and contributors alike. It’s hard now to recall that the original editors were actually nervous at its inception and worried whether anyone would be moved to contribute. But as an essay marking the page’s 20th birthday observed, “It was as if the Gray Lady had hit the dance floor.” Contributions poured in, and by its 40th, nearly 15,000 Op-Ed pages had been printed.

 

20. US could seek ‘expeditionary’ base deal with India

asiatimes.com · by MK Bhadrakumar · April 27, 2021

Excerpts: “Thus India would probably be the only remaining regional state in Washington’s consideration zone as a potential collaborator. No doubt, the US is in a desperate hurry as the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan has commenced. The big question is whether the US is relenting on the vaccine front with a view to cutting a deal with India on Afghanistan.

The thought of it, of course, is very frightening. But if past experience is any guide, Washington has shown savviness to exploit India’s travails. A big step recently toward institutionalizing the Quad was possible only because of India’s border tensions with China.

However, Afghanistan is a “graveyard of empires.” The calculus of fratricidal wars keeps changing and India is best advised to steer clear of the Afghan civil war. Predicating any policy on the United States’ consistency is risky too.

Therefore, India should never contemplate a Faustian deal allowing Pentagon basing arrangements on its soil for the upcoming Afghan operations as quid pro quo for raw materials for the Covid-19 vaccine.

This should be delimited as a purely commercial transaction between the Indian vaccine manufacturing company and the US supplier of raw materials.

 

21. Are U.S. Bases in Asia Vulnerable to Chinese Missiles? Very.

The National Interest · by James Holmes · April 27, 2021

Conclusion: "So America needs to rediscover the habit of strategic humility after being top dog for a generation. Here’s what Indo-Pacific allies need to do: help us help you. Even if island-chain defense works out, U.S. reinforcements must gain access to the Western Pacific to prevail in wartime. PLA commanders have predicated their access-denial strategy on disheartening their U.S. counterparts or convincing the U.S. administration the military effort cannot succeed at a cost the country is prepared to pay. Allies and partners should devise strategies and operations that hold down the price of access for U.S. forces—and thus make it thinkable if not easy for an American president to order them into combat."

 

22. OPINION: Suga-Biden summit: Rekindling confidence in the U.S.-Japan alliance

KYODO NEWS · by Sayuri Rome and Scott W. Harold · April 26, 2021

Excerpts: “The April 16 summit signaled a substantial deepening in the U.S.-Japan alliance, highlighting important new areas of cooperation and a concrete agenda for U.S.-Japan relations. But major domestic and foreign policy issues remain that could distract from, or provide further impetus for, allied cooperation. Prior to the summit, both China and South Korea reacted strongly to Japan's announcement that it plans to release treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster into the Pacific Ocean. Japanese fishermen from the region also criticized the decision, arguing it would undermine market confidence in their products. Separately, at the post-summit press conference, Suga chose not to respond to a question about whether or not public health considerations would permit the country to follow through with hosting the Olympics this summer. A majority of the Japanese public remain opposed to holding the event. Despite the procurement of promises of additional supplies of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine, several major Japanese cities have again been put under a state of emergency.

The U.S. issued a statement supporting Japan's approach to the disposal through dilution of the stored Fukushima wastewater, and Biden offered his personal support for Japan's "efforts to hold a safe and secure" Olympics this summer. Suga, whose domestic approval ratings remain low, has thus been able to draw substantial gains from the alliance, while Biden used it to answer the question of whether he might pursue a more China-centric foreign policy that prioritizes Beijing over Tokyo. Little wonder then that the latest polls show the Japanese public is overwhelmingly in favor of moves such as the two sides took this past week to continue strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance.

 

23. What are the Top 10 Sources of Threats to America?

The National Interest · by Jeff Allen · April 26, 2021

Transparency and informing the public are important for our national security.

 

24. How to Think About Counterinsurgency After Afghanistan

defenseone.com · by Steven Metz

The pendulum will swing. (again)

Conclusion: “How then should the United States think about counterinsurgency? In a word, realistically. First, Americans should admit that today’s terrorists do not need physical sanctuary, so trying to control every isolated patch of territory on earth is not worth the cost even if it could be done. Second, as heartbreaking as it would be to see evil movements like the Taliban, the Islamic State, or al Qaeda in control of all or part of a nation, the United States must base counterinsurgency support on the viability of the partner government, not the pathology of the insurgents. If a government is truly dedicated to altering the system that gave rise to insurgency and shares basic American values, it might deserve help. Otherwise, the United States should resist supporting a deeply flawed partner simply because its opponent is worse. This may ultimately be the most important strategic lesson of Afghanistan.

 

25. US Army to Replace Criminal Investigations Chief In Wake of Guillen’s Death

defenseone.com · by Tara Copp

 

26. How the Army uses the West Virginia wilderness to find out who has what it takes to join Delta Force

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

 

----------------

 

"And that's probably one of my biggest gripes with the Internet, that it settles for mediocrity and disinformation, which puts all information on the same level. Everything has the same value, whether it's Albert Einstein speaking, or [email protected]."

- Harlan Ellison

 

"Among all the world’s races…Americans are the most prone to misinformation...so much of what they believe is wrong."

John Kenneth Galbraith

 

"As long as anger, paranoia and misinformation drive our political debate, there are unhinged souls among us who will feel justified in turning to violent remedies for imagined threats."

- David Horsey