News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. The Korean War: The origin of Pyongyang's state lies

2. Nightmare scenarios: How Korean War 2 could ignite

3.  North Korea "failed to adhere to its commitments" in arms control: U.S. report

4. Top Pyongyang official chides Seoul, but affirms halt to hostility

5.  What is Kim Jong-un Planning?

6. Rethinking South Korea’s Unification Policy: Deregulate People-to-People Exchanges

7. How North Korea's Propaganda Prevents Inter-Korean Peace

8. Do We Remember the Lessons of the Korean War?

9. N. Korean soldiers on inter-Korean border still on high state of alert

10. The Pyongyang General Hospital project's dark side

11. Opinion | Why Did Kim Jong-un’s Sister Become the Face of North Korea?

12. Timeline: Threats and stalemate one year after Trump last met North Korea's Kim

13. House defense bill targets potential troop drawdowns in Africa, South Korea

14. Kim Jong-un dead rumours resurface as Japan has 'suspicions' about North Korean leader

15. State Department accuses 10 countries, including China and North Korea, of government-sponsored human trafficking

16. N.K. propaganda outlet resumes anti-Seoul criticism over 'subservient' attitude to U.S.

17. U.S. names N. Korea worst human trafficking nation for 18th year

18. CNN’s Portrayal of North Korea as Lawless Aggressor Reverses Reality

1. The Korean War: The origin of Pyongyang's state lies

The Hill · by Sung-Yoon Lee, opinion contributor · June 25, 2020

A must read from Professor Lee.  These are important insights about the history and nature of the Kim family regime.

2. Nightmare scenarios: How Korean War 2 could ignite

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 25, 2020

Excellent interview with our good friend Lt Gen Chun In Bum.

3. North Korea "failed to adhere to its commitments" in arms control: U.S. report

nknews.org · by Min Chao Choy · June 26, 2020

The State Department report can be downloaded here:  https://www.state.gov/adherence-to-and-compliance-with-arms-control-nonproliferation-and-disarmament-agreements-and-commitments-compliance-report/

4. Top Pyongyang official chides Seoul, but affirms halt to hostility

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Kim Yong Chol is not looking good.  Perhaps he has recently return from a re-education course.  This article makes it appear there may be some friction between the party and the military. I think it would be a mistake to think that. I think the party remains in control of the military and Kim Jong-un is fully in charge and is continuing to execute his long con.

5. What is Kim Jong-un Planning?

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · June 25, 2020

Another pundit who continually wants to blame the US and maximum pressure. He is also telling us we have much to learn about north Korea.  

6. Rethinking South Korea’s Unification Policy: Deregulate People-to-People Exchanges

38north.org · by Bernhard Seliger · June 25, 2020

I am all for people to people contact between the Koreans in the north and South.  If I were advising the ROKG I would strongly recommend they push for people to people engagement on a large scale (but start small and build).  It will be one of the best ways to prepare the populations on both sides of the of DMZ.

However, the regime will never go for it.  The South can propose all kinds fo people to people engagement programs, but the north will never agree.

Why?  We must remember the question Dr. Jung Pak always asks.  Who does Kim Jong-un fear more: the US or the Korean people living in the north?  He fears the Korean people more. And if the people engage with Koreans from the South, they will become an ever-bigger threat to the regime. Kim Jong-un therefore cannot allow such engagement to occur.

7. How North Korea's Propaganda Prevents Inter-Korean Peace

The National Interest · by Jihyun Park · June 24, 2020

A very succinct overview of the indoctrination of the Korean people in the north.

8. Do We Remember the Lessons of the Korean War?

english.chosun.com

There is a scathing critique in the penultimate and concluding paragraphs.  I think the editorial board could have used the Sun Tzi quote - "Never assume the enemy will not attack. Make yourself invincible."

9. N. Korean soldiers on inter-Korean border still on high state of alert

dailynk.com – Jeong Tae Joo - June 25, 2020

Of course, they are especially since the ROK Army reinforced the forward areas to include deploying armor. Are the ROK forces still in the forward areas?

10. The Pyongyang General Hospital project's dark side

dailynk.com – Jong So Yong - June 26, 2020

The hospital must be built at "Chollima speed." This is a helluva way to treat soldiers (or any human being).  The regime does not value or have respect for human life.  Every one of the 25 million Koreans who live in the north exists for one reason: to serve the regime and Kim Jong-un.

11. Opinion | Why Did Kim Jong-un’s Sister Become the Face of North Korea?

The New York Times · by Sung-Yoon Lee · June 26, 2020

Another excellent article from Professor Lee with important insights on Kim Yo-Jong, the Kim family regime, and the Paektu bloodline.

12. Timeline: Threats and stalemate one year after Trump last met North Korea's Kim

Reuters · June 26, 2020

A short timeline of the past two years of unconventional, experimental top-down, pen-pal diplomacy.  Just a recommendation to Reuters: it would have been more useful to include the summits and meetings with Moon Jae-in, Xi Jinping, and Putin and the 21+ missile and rocket launches.  That would have provided more context and a better perspective. 

13. House defense bill targets potential troop drawdowns in Africa, South Korea

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · June 25, 2020

Some good news.  I did not see this in the Senate mark-up but I was only focused on Special Operations and the establishment of a Secretariat of Special Operations under the ASD SO/LIC. But I imagine the Korea provision will be in the final bill.

The Korea section is repeating and reinforcing the same provision in the 2020 NDAA - no funds will be authorized for withdrawal of troops unless the SECDEF certifies that there is no impact on US or South Korean security.

14. Kim Jong-un dead rumours resurface as Japan has 'suspicions' about North Korean leader

Mirror · by Talia Shadwell · June 26, 2020

The "Mark Twain" rumors persist (reports of my death are greatly exaggerated). But the Japanese press is notorious for these types of rumors.  We should note that it was only 16 days between his last appearch and his Zoom Meeting with his officials this week.

15. State Department accuses 10 countries, including China and North Korea, of government-sponsored human trafficking

The Washington Post – by Carol Morello – June 25, 2020

According to Yonhap, north Korea was named number one for the 18th straight year.  This article goes well beyond north Korea.

We must continue to press north Korean on human rights issues.  It is a moral imperative and a national security issue.  Kim must deny human rights to remain in power.  Our focus on nuclear weapons strengthens his legitimacy.  Our focus on human rights undermines his legitimacy and is a threat to the regime.  And it is the right thing to do.

16. N.K. propaganda outlet resumes anti-Seoul criticism over 'subservient' attitude to U.S.

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 26, 2020

The scorpion and the frog.  The Kim family regime just cannot help itself.  Anti-South propaganda is in its nature. And of course, "Divide to conquer" - divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK is also in its nature.  It just cannot help itself.

17. U.S. names N. Korea worst human trafficking nation for 18th year

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 26, 2020

We cannot be afraid to focus on human rights.  State is not.

18. CNN’s Portrayal of North Korea as Lawless Aggressor Reverses Reality

fair.org · by Joshua Cho · June 25, 2020

I have to provide this disinformation.  This is an unbelievable piece of "analysis". It has been awhile since I have read something pro-north Korea.  It is pretty amazing spin. I hope my PSYOP professional friends enjoy analyzing this.  I am going to have to pay better attention at DC Korea conferences and look for this Mr. Cho since he apparently resides in north Korea.  I wonder if he has registered as a foreign agent.  He is surely doing the bidding of the Kim family regime.  I wonder if he has a contract with the Propaganda and Agitation Department.  His propaganda is actually brilliant because this might be embraced by those with an anti-CNN bias so by their attacking CNN they will be supporting north Korea. :-)

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Critics, allies wonder what Trump's trying to achieve with troop cuts

2. Trump is right to withdraw troops from Germany - as long as he sends them east

3. Trump administration says it won't carry out a nuclear weapons test 'at this time'

4. Trump's national security adviser lays out stinging critique of threat posed by China

5. The tide is turning toward trusted 5G vendors

6. Japan to consider strike capability to replace missile defence system

7. White supremacist terrorism 'on the rise and spreading,' State Dept. says in new report

8. Is the US ready for the rising tide of mercenaries?

9. 'Coming back and biting us': US sees virus resurgence

10. Pompeo says China's Africa lending creates unsustainable debt burdens

11. Trump confirms plan to slash U.S. troop presence in Germany; some 'probably' will relocate to Poland

12. Army special forces conducting 15-day training in northern Taiwan

13. The growing White supremacist menace- COVID-19 has been a boon for far-right extremists

14. ROC(K) solid preparedness: Resistance operations concept in the shadow of Russia

15. Congress wants to know SOCOM's plan to counter new threats, Reform command culture

16. A brief history of Antifa: Part II

17. Reimagining policing in America-A Complete Institutional Overhaul

18. No such thing as a perfect partner: The Challenges of "By, With, and Through"

1. Critics, allies wonder what Trump's trying to achieve with troop cuts

defenseone.com · by Katie Bo Williams 

Concur. What effect are we trying to achieve? Inquiring minds want to know.

Is "punishing an ally" more important than protecting our national interests and preserving strategic flexibility and agility that our forward bases and forward stationed forces provide?

I would argue that the proposed withdrawal is in contravention to the national Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy. A repositioning of some troops to Poland would be in keeping with the strategies but bringing forward stationed troops back to CONUS is not in accordance with our strategies.

2. Trump is right to withdraw troops from Germany - as long as he sends them east

The Washington Post · by Marc A. Thiessen · June 24, 2020

Another view.

3. Trump administration says it won't carry out a nuclear weapons test 'at this time'

CNN · by Kylie Atwood 

Cooler heads prevail?

4. Trump's national security adviser lays out stinging critique of threat posed by China

washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz 

A lay down of the NSA's analysis of the Chinese threat. But I think we overlook his concluding statement which I think need to be emphasized and succinctly sums up the issues. He says we want good relations with China but on the current terms that China offers.

Here is my summary assessment of China:

China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

We see this play out in China's concepts of Unrestricted Warfare and China's three warfares of psychological warfare, legal warfare or lawfare, and media or public opinion warfare. Along with selected hybrid military activities these combine to form a Chinese concept of political warfare.

5. The tide is turning toward trusted 5G vendors

state.gov · by Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State · June 24, 2020

6. Japan to consider strike capability to replace missile defence system

reuters · by Tim Kelly

Maybe Japan could partner with South Korea on its Kill Chain missile defense concept. (Note sarcasm though I wish there could be that kind of collaboration).

7. White supremacist terrorism 'on the rise and spreading,' State Dept. says in new report

ABCNews.com · by Conor Finnegan · June 24, 2020

8. Is the US ready for the rising tide of mercenaries?

pri.org · by Laicie Heeley

It is a brave new world. Who should have a monopoly on violence?

Sean McFate is one of the leading researchers and experts on Private Military Corporations.

9. 'Coming back and biting us': US sees virus resurgence

AP · by NICK PERRY and KEN MORITSUGU · June 24, 2020

We are in for some tough times ahead I am afraid. Practical, proven, public health procedures versus the anti-science tribe.

10. Pompeo says China's Africa lending creates unsustainable debt burdens

reuters · June 24, 2020

China’s debt trap strategy?

11. Trump confirms plan to slash U.S. troop presence in Germany; some 'probably' will relocate to Poland

The Washington Post · by Anne Gearan · June 24, 2020

Yes, US Troops in Poland probably makes sense (I will leave that to the experts on the European Theater). A fundamental question for me is do we have better strategic flexibility and agility with more forces stationed in CONUS with less overseas forward presence and access to bases?  What is the best way to distribute and apportion forces to best support US national security?

12. Army special forces conducting 15-day training in northern Taiwan

focustaiwan.tw · June 21, 2020

It is good to see Taiwan emphasizing its Special Forces. As I have mentioned I would love to see a new US Special Forces Detachment Taiwan as we had in the 1950/1960s.  

And one of the things I would focus on is developing a Taiwanese Resistance Operating Concept along the lines of the one developed in Europe (https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/2217669/rock-solid-preparedness-resistance-operations-concept-in-the-shadow-of-russia/). It would not only have practical application in an invasion by the PLA, it could play a role in "unconventional deterrence" which would be better than having a war. (See Robert Jones' article here: https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/deterring-competition-short-war-are-gray-zones-ardennes-our-modern-maginot-line). If an invading force/occupier believes the population cannot be pacified it might deter an invasion.

Of course, this reporting may be the Taiwanese information operations effort to support unconventional deterrence.

13. The growing White supremacist menace- COVID-19 has been a boon for far-right extremists

Foreign Affairs · by Rebecca Ulam Weiner · June 23, 2020

More food for thought.

14. ROC(K) solid preparedness: Resistance operations concept in the shadow of Russia

ndupress.ndu.edu · June 11, 2020

This concept should be studied and considered for implementation in certain countries around the world that are threatened with potential invasion. Of course, the concept must be adapted for the unique conditions in each country and region.  

There is also another threat that requires resistance and that is the cyber threat. A country might not face the threat of physical invasion, but it can be threatened and undermined through cyber operations. We have to learn how to defend ourselves and our nations in cyber space.

I have given this some thought to "cyber resistanc" here: https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-cyber-underground-%E2%80%93-resistance-to-active-measures-and-propaganda-%E2%80%9Cthe-disruptors%E2%80%9D-mot-0.

15. Congress wants to know SOCOM's plan to counter new threats, Reform command culture

airforcemag.com · by Alyk Russell Kenlan · June 23, 2020

Interesting title and text. The discussion is on command culture, not SOF culture. Is that a subtle message?

16. A brief history of Antifa: Part II

gatestoneinstitute.org · by Soeren Kern · June 23, 2020

And another view on antifa.

17. Reimagining policing in America-A Complete Institutional Overhaul

smallwarsjournal · by Lieutenant Colonel Lemar Farhad · June 25, 2020

A new concept to train, develop, supervise, improve, and monitor our police officers. Although the authors using military concepts this is not about militarization of police.

18. No such thing as a perfect partner: The Challenges of "By, With, and Through"

ndupress.ndu.edu · June 11, 2020

"Through, with, and by" has become one of the most overused and perhaps misused terms. We should remember where it came from and how it was meant to be applied by COL Mark Boyatt who actually coined the term in 1994-1995. (See his book Special Forces: A Unique National Asset "through, with and by" https://www.amazon.com/Special-Forces-Unique-National-through/dp/1478770821)

COL Boyatt coined the term to describe one of the fundamental operational methods of Special Forces in particular in the execution of the unconventional warfare mission.  

Yes, there are no perfect partners (which of course has to include ourselves as American partners - we are far from perfect).  But despite the "imperfectness" of all partners there are ways to ensure we can work together to achieve mutual objectives. Here are two points that I think should be emphasized: https://maxoki161.blogspot.com/2018/07/eight-points-of-special-warfare.html

-----------

"It is customary in democratic countries to deplore expenditure on armaments as conflicting with the requirements of the social services. There is a tendency to forget that the most important social service that a government can do for its people is to keep them alive and free."

 -  John Cotesworth Slessor, 1897-1979, British Air Force Marshall

"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."

- General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms

"A generation which ignores history has no past and no future."

- Robert Heinlein

"History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illuminates reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity."

- Cicero

"History is a vast early warning system."

- Norman Cousins

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Joint Statement in Commemoration of the 70th Anniversary of the Outbreak of the Korean War

2. The Korean War never technically ended. Here’s why.

3. ‘I didn’t know I was young:’ Remembering the Korean War 70 years later

4.  70 Years After the War, No Resolution in Korea

5. S.Korea Cautious About N.Korea's U-Turn

6. Why Pyongyang needs to dump on Seoul’s leftists

7.  Why the American-South Korean alliance cannot be a simple bargaining chip with North Korea

8.  Guns and Hunger (Korean War)

9.  Bridges at Panmunjom

10. Thousands Taken: Kidnappings by North Korea's Kim Dynasty Continue for Half a Century

11. Families sue national archives for POW/MIA records on 70th anniversary of Korean War

12. N. Korea preparing mass gymnastics show for party anniversary

13. Chairman Kim Goes Back on Script

14. They gamed out war on the Korean Peninsula—Everyone lost

15. Kim Jong Un’s erratic behavior shows North Korea is stuck

16. North Korea lauds Harry Potter

17. Pyongyang General Hospital: the two towers reach full height

18. Pompeo cites 3 S. Korean companies in case against Huawei

1. Joint Statement in Commemoration of the 70th Anniversary of the Outbreak of the Korean War

defense.gov 

2. The Korean War never technically ended. Here’s why.

nationalgeographic.com · June 24, 2020

Today is the 70th Anniversary. It is not a forgotten war for those who still survive. Please remember them and never forget.

3. ‘I didn’t know I was young:’ Remembering the Korean War 70 years later

militarytimes.com · by Diana Stancy Correll, Zach England · June 24, 2020

My comments are in the conclusion of this article.

4.  70 Years After the War, No Resolution in Korea

WSJ · by Walter Russell Mead · June 24, 2020

There can be no reconciliation as long as the Kim family regime remains in power. For the North it is a zero sum relationship with the South. 

Walter Russell Mead paints a grim picture for the alliance. He also calls Kim Jong-un one of the world's most unpredictable leaders. I would say perhaps he is tactically unpredictable (we did not see his countermanding of Kim Yo-jong's order coming so soon), but he is strategically predictable. He has not wavered from the strategic objectives of his grandfather nor strayed from the Kim family regime playbook. And his increased tension and violent provocation cycle remains a key part of his method of operation.

5. S.Korea Cautious About N.Korea's U-Turn

english.chosun.com · June 25, 2020

Yes, it must be cautious, the regime is masterful at denial and deception. As Sun Tzu said "all warfare is based on deception," both "kinetic" and political warfare.

The article also questions whether China influenced Kim to countermand his sister's orders so rapidly.

6. Why Pyongyang needs to dump on Seoul’s leftists

asiatimes.com · by B.R. Myers · June 24, 2020

This is a must read. It is a short article by one of the best non-Korean Korea scholars. B.R. Myers provides some very succinct analysis of the Kim family regime. I do think his points about South Korean understand the North's strategy which is why it stays the course should be challenged.

7.  Why the American-South Korean Alliance cannot be a simple bargaining chip with North Korea

The National Interest · by Michael O'Hanlon · June 24, 2020

Yes Michael is right about the alliance. We must never forget that a key north Korean objective is to get US forces off the peninsula. The ROK/US alliance, with a US force presence, is key to deterrence.

I would also say that any peace treaty should be concluded between the two belligerents, the North and South and not the North and the US. 

Lastly, Michael reminds us that despite the "streamlining" of the ROK military for demographic reasons, it is still the largest Army of any US alliance partner. I think we too often overlook that.

8.  Guns and Hunger (Korean War)

wilsonquarterly.com · by Jean H. Lee

We never forget about the people affected by the war.

9.  Bridges at Panmunjom

wilsonquarterly.com · by LT. COL. Sean Morrow

I had the honor of making two visits to Panmunjom over the past year and meeting with Lt Col Morrow (he was a great host).

This is a must read article as well. On the one hand it is a human interest story about relationships. Through that lens it provides some behind the scenes insights into the summits and meetings held at Panmunjom over the past two years.

I spent three years around the JSA in the 1980s when we used to have the American sector to patrol. I visited JSA many times and conducted coordination with the battalion there. This article provides a unique perspective that you do not often read about.

And again, on the human interest side, we should never forget the anecdote of how children in North Korea learn to count: "One American Bastard, two American Bastards, three American Bastards..."

10. Thousands Taken: Kidnappings by North Korea's Kim Dynasty Continue for Half a Century

japan-forward.com · by Melanie Kirkpatrick · June 24, 2020

Another aspect of the evil nature of the Kim family regime.

11. Families sue national archives for POW/MIA records on 70th anniversary of Korean War

powinvestigativeproject.org · June 24, 2020

Another tragic legacy of the Korean War. China, Russia, and North Korea are complicit.

I wonder why these records are still being withheld.

12. N. Korea preparing mass gymnastics show for party anniversary

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 25, 2020

If I were an advisor to Kim Jong-un I would ask him what is his intent for this show? What objectives is he trying to achieve? What target audience is he trying to influence? In short, why is this show being held?

I would also ask him that give the failed economy and the effects of the coronavirus is it really worth it to expend the resources to conduct this show when those resources could be more effectively employed to solve some of the critical problems in the country.

Of course, if I were such an advisor and asked such questions, I would end up in the gulag if not participate in a public execution (my own).

13. Chairman Kim Goes Back on Script

project-syndicate.org · by Kent Harrington · June 24, 2020

A sober analysis. I concur that no matter what happens in the North, Kim will not deviate from the Kim family regime strategy and its playbook.

I would also add that although Mr. Harrington did not explicitly state this, the reason for "failure" so far is due to Kim Jong-un and the nature of the Kim family regime. The one positive thing about President Trump's unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy and President Moon's "peace strategy" and his vision of peace and reconciliation is that we have tested Kim Jong-un and provided him with multiple opportunities to engage and change the regime's course and what we have confirmed is his unwillingness to do so. We should be under no illusion about the nature and strategy of the regime. President Trump and President Moon have been able to determine their strategic assumptions have been wrong. This means it is time to revise the strategy and look to implement a Plan B.

14. They gamed out war on the Korean Peninsula—Everyone lost

Forbes · by David Axe · June 24, 2020

One scenario to remind us of what might happen if hostilities resume on the Korean peninsula. But I have seen other outcomes though they all involve a high level of military and civilian casualties. This is why I advocate the most important task for the ROK/US alliance and the ROK/US Combined Forces Command (which was not mentioned in the article and is a terrible oversight because that is the warfighting command) is deterrence.

The North poses an existential threat to the South. It is in the US national interests to prevent war on the Korean peninsula because what happens on the peninsula will have direct effects on the US and the entire world.

15. Kim Jong Un’s erratic behavior shows North Korea is stuck

Bloomberg · by Jon Herskovitz · June 24, 2020

Yes, Kim is between a rock (ROK) and a hard place.

I think Kim is mistaken that he can put enough pressure on Trump to return to talks and get sanctions relief. It is a fool's errand.

And we must never go wobbly on sanctions. If we give in to Kim on sanctions, we will see North Korea's bad behavior continue for years to come.

16. North Korea lauds Harry Potter

koreaherald.com · by Park Han-na · June 24, 2020

All is well now. If North Korea accepts Harry Potter a tectonic cultural shift is taking place.

17. Pyongyang General Hospital: the two towers reach full height

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · June 24, 2020

North Korea continues to prepare for the coronavirus outbreak. I wonder if the hospital has its grand opening when the regime admits the first coronavirus patients.

18. Pompeo cites 3 S. Korean companies in case against Huawei

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · June 25, 2020

-----------

"It is customary in democratic countries to deplore expenditure on armaments as conflicting with the requirements of the social services. There is a tendency to forget that the most important social service that a government can do for its people is to keep them alive and free."

 -  John Cotesworth Slessor, 1897-1979, British Air Force Marshall

"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."

- General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms

"A generation which ignores history has no past and no future."

- Robert Heinlein

"History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illuminates reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity."

- Cicero

"History is a vast early warning system."

- Norman Cousins

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. FDD | State Department Plays Key Role in New U.S. China Strategy

2. Trump faces mounting GOP blowback over order to pull troops out of Germany

3. What Antifa is, What it isn't, and Why it matters

4. International Criminal Court members defend it in face of U.S. sanctions

5. FDD | America in 2020: "Insurrection" or "Incipient Insurgency"?

6. FDD | How to Beat China's Military-Civil Fusion

7. Despite the Authoritarian Wave, People Will Be Back

8. U.S. Military Remains Vulnerable to Infiltration by Violent Extremists

9. BlueLeaks: Huge Leak of Police Department Data Follows George Floyd Protests

10. Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany a key subplot of Trump's meeting with Polish leader

11. Lawmakers seek $6 billion to add weapons to deter China in the Pacific

12. US government broadcasters have long advanced the cause of freedom. Now they're under threat.

13. Gaslighting Nobody, the Blob Awkwardly Struggles for Primacy

14. Defense bill would survey troops on if they've faced 'racist, anti-Semitic or supremacist' activity

15. The U.S. Intel Community is being disrupted

16. Ending America's Grand Strategic Failures

17. Does the Pentagon's Checkbook Diplomacy actually work?

1. FDD | State Department Plays Key Role in New U.S. China Strategy

fdd.org · by David Maxwell · June 23, 2020

2. Trump faces mounting GOP blowback over order to pull troops out of Germany

The Washington Post · by James Hohmann · June 23, 2020

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Will the republicans be able to change his mind or will the Pentagon come up with a way to split the baby and execute the President's intent without doing too much damage to the alliance and US forward stationed capabilities.

3. What Antifa is, What it isn't, and Why it matters

warontherocks.com · by Michael Kenney · June 23, 2020

The analyses of antifa are all over the map. There will be pushback by many on this statement "Interestingly, any push to terrorism among Antifa supporters would likely be met by opposition from within the movement" because it does not comport with their view of the movement (rather than organization).

4. International Criminal Court members defend it in face of U.S. sanctions

Reuters · by Anthony Deutsch, Stephanie van den Berg · June 23, 2020

This is the key point: "The ICC is a court of last resort, stepping in only when a state is unable or unwilling to prosecute grave crimes." The US conducts investigations and conducts trials based on evidence. It is neither unable nor unwilling to prosecute grave crimes. It is not in the ICC's purview to take action because it does not like the outcome of US investigations and trials.

5. FDD | America in 2020: "Insurrection" or "Incipient Insurgency"?

fdd.org · by David Kilcullen · June 23, 2020

We may be in the incipient stage, but it is no longer latent!

Provocative analysis from David Kilcullen.

6. FDD | How to Beat China's Military-Civil Fusion

fdd.org · by Emily de La Bruyère Senior Fellow · June 22, 2020

7. Despite the Authoritarian Wave, People Will Be Back

realclearworld.com · by Srdja Popovic

We will see. In long talks with our college age daughter while we have stayed home these past few months, I have learned that many of her peers do not value democracy like we do. We just take it for granted that our sons and daughters will value freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, a free market economy, rule of law, and human rights the way we do. I agree with the author's conclusion: "Societies are as healthy and vital as are their citizens." That may be worrisome these days.

8. U.S. Military Remains Vulnerable to Infiltration by Violent Extremists

mailchi.mp · June 24, 2020

9. BlueLeaks: Huge Leak of Police Department Data Follows George Floyd Protests

Forbes · by Thomas Brewster · June 22, 2020

10. Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany a key subplot of Trump's meeting with Polish leader

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · June 23, 2020

There is always a rest of the story or the story behind the story. It will be interesting to see what troops we do station in Poland.

11. Lawmakers seek $6 billion to add weapons to deter China in the Pacific

foxnews.com · by Kris Osborn | Warrior Maven · June 23, 2020

Weapons are good. But we need to invest presence, training, relationships, and interoperability with our friends, partners and allies as well.

12. US government broadcasters have long advanced the cause of freedom. Now they're under threat.

atlanticcouncil.org · June 23, 2020

VOA, RFA, RFE/RL, et all are critical national security assets. We need to treat them that way.

But it seems like Mr. Pack is being treated with guilt by association. While I do not agree that any new boss should come in and initiate an immediate purge without first conducting his or her own assessment to understand what problem he or she is trying to solve, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. And I have heard he has not been associated with Bannon for some years.

13. Gaslighting Nobody, the Blob Awkwardly Struggles for Primacy

The American Conservative · by Kelley Beaucar Vlahos · June 24, 2020

Kelley Beaucar Vlahos does quite a takedown of the national security community, AKA the Blob, here.

Truth in advertising Mike Mazarr was my thesis advisor many years ago and then when I was on the National War College faculty, he was my faculty mentor.

14. Defense bill would survey troops on if they've faced 'racist, anti-Semitic or supremacist' activity

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · June 22, 2020

These results will be very interesting.

15. The U.S. Intel Community is being disrupted

defenseone.com · by Zachery Tyson Brown · June 23, 2020

"Of value." How does the intelligence community remain "of value?"

16. Ending America's Grand Strategic Failures

csis.org · by Anthony H. Cordesman · June 22, 2020

Another strong critique from Anthony Cordesman.

17. Does the Pentagon's Checkbook Diplomacy actually work?

defenseone.com · by Brian Blankenship · June 23, 2020

The Beatles told us "money can't buy me love." But can it buy me some national security? 

-----------

"A popular government without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy, or perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives." 

- James Madison, from a letter to W.T. Barry, August 4, 1822

"The responsibility of great states is to serve and not to dominate the world."  

- Harry S. Truman, Message to Congress, April 16, 1945

"A trained and disciplined guerrilla is much more than a patriotic peasant, workman, or student armed with an antiquated fowling-piece and home-made bomb.  His endoctrination begins even before he is taught to shoot accurately, and it is unceasing.  The end product is an intensely loyal and politically alert fighting man." 

- Brig Gen S.B. Griffith in the Introduction to Mao's On Guerrilla Warfare, 1961.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. 'We can and must do better': U.S. Forces Korea leads fight against racism in the ranks

2. N. Korean leader suspends military action plans against S. Korea

3.  N. Korea seen removing loudspeakers from border areas: sources

4.  North Korean Escapee, Entrepreneur, and Human Rights Activist Visits HRNK

5. North Korea reportedly threatens 'new round of the Korean War' to end US

6. North Korea puts on hold threatening rhetoric against the South

7. N.K. propaganda outlets delete articles critical of S. Korea en masse

8. N. Korea appears to be dialing back on threats amid internal challenges: experts

9. N.Korea 'Suspends Military Action' as Spy Planes Fly over

10. Kim Jong Un Hits Pause Button on Threats Against South Korea

11. U.S.' B-52 bombers are deployed near Korean Peninsula

12. Anti-North activists defy local bans on leaflet campaigns

13. U.S. concerned over North's nuclear activities in 2019: Report

14. Seoul has to prepare for an era devoid of ROK-U.S. alliance

15. U.S. constantly assessing options to respond to N.K. threats: top general

16. [Korean War Anniversary] 'Just another day' still remembered 70 years on

1. 'We can and must do better': U.S. Forces Korea leads fight against racism in the ranks

washingtontimes.com · by Ben Wolfgang · June 23, 2020

2. N. Korean leader suspends military action plans against S. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 24, 2020

Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime are bullies. There is only one thing to do with bullies and that is to stand up to them. It is unfortunate that the Moon Administration at first acquiesced to Kim Yo-jong's demands to halt the leaflet operations by escapees/defectors and that the Minister of Unification resigned. However, the ROK and US have discussed reinvigorating the exercise program, the ROK deployed infantry and armor to the vicinity of the DMZ and the US deployed strategic assets and ISR assets. This is how you respond to North Korean bullying.

That said it ain't over til it's over. There will be more. And of course the north is calling the Comprehensive Military Agreement a "dead document." This is a direct attack/insult toward President Moon.

A couple of points from the article.

The order was supposedly given by video teleconference. (we should be figuring out how to penetrate that network).

What military action plans were suspended? Military occupation of Kaseong and Kumgangsan? Redeployment of forces to the guard posts in the DMZ? Balloon launches (they were probably unable to print the 12 million leaflets they threatened to send to the South). Loudspeaker operations? Something else?

As we surmised Kim Yo-jong was out in front with statements and giving orders, but this provided the opportunity for Kim Jong-un to walk things back. And of course it appears Kim Jong-un is making sure we know he is in charge - but the fact the "order" was given via VTC begs the questions - where was Kim? In Pyongyang? In Isolation? In Wonsan? And of course, this provides no indication of his health but makes you wonder if he is unable to travel for health reasons or is simply hiding out for fear of being exposed to the coronavirus.

And lastly a little humor that we can all perhaps appreciate from doing some many Zoom conferences these days. Bruce Klingner nails it with humor that also seriously explains the nature of the Kim family regime and the sycophants that must surround Kim Jong-un.

3.  N. Korea seen removing loudspeakers from border areas: sources

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 24, 2020

The soldiers from the North are getting jerked around. Put them up, take them down. You know what they are thinking and mumbling to themselves. At least the North is now refraining from contributing to noise pollution.

4.  North Korean Escapee, Entrepreneur, and Human Rights Activist Visits HRNK

hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea · June 22, 2020

Human rights are a moral imperative and a national security issue. The Moon Administration should be doing everything it can to support the work of the escapees. We all have a responsibility to advocate for the human rights of the Korea people living in the North but the people in South Korea have a special responsibility. And the South Korean government even more so. It pains me to read Ms. Ma Young-ae's pleas.

We should never forget the more we simply talk about the North's nuclear weapons we make Kim stronger. But when we press for human rights in the North, we undermine his legitimacy, make him weaker and give hope to the Korean people.

5. North Korea reportedly threatens 'new round of the Korean War' to end US

New York Post · by Emily Jacobs · June 23, 2020

Looks like Kim Yo-jong has been trumped by her brother with the announcement today that he is suspending "military action plans." We are seeing good cop/bad cop or Kim Jong-un pulled the rug out from under her or most likely she provided some plausible deniability so he could rescind her decisions. But we should make no mistake. She was not acting on her own and everything she did and said was approved by Kim Jong-un.

6. North Korea puts on hold threatening rhetoric against the South

The Washington Post · by Min Joo Kim · June 24, 2020

This will be dominating the Korean news cycle for the next day or so as we all speculate as to the meaning. The removal of articles from North Korean web sites that criticize the South is something that is unusual.

7. N.K. propaganda outlets delete articles critical of S. Korea en masse

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 24, 2020

This is a very interesting development. Is this somehow a restart of a new charm offensive? Was Kim Yo-jong acting out and acting out with Kim Jong-un's authorization? Was Kim Jong-un somehow incapacitated over the past couple of weeks and Kim Yo-jong took a little too much initiative?

But I do not recall anything like this happening before.The regime has always stood by its rhetoric or simply moved on seemingly without explanation. It has never had trouble going to increase tensions (built on hostile rhetoric) to violent provocations to negotiations to some kind of "equilibrium" for a while especially if it obtained some kind of concession and then when the time was right it would ratchet up tension again and get to the tension/provocation/negotiation cycle. Rinse and repeat.  

But taking down articles that are critical of the South is not something I recall seeing. However, this action like all others (to include the publication of the original articles) would have to have Kim Jong-un's approval.  

This begs the question of what is Kim thinking and what is he about to do?

I am reminded of 1950 after months and years of north-South tensions and border skirmishes and infiltration and subversion and sabotage the North abruptly called for negotiations at the city of Kaesong (which at the time was in South Korea since it is South of the 38th parallel). At the end of May 1950, the North ceased all hostile propaganda and with the call for negotiations analysts believed the North wanted to seek a political solution to the differences between North and South.

Of course, tomorrow is the 70th anniversary of what happened next. We should beware of the North ceasing its hostile rhetoric. If Kim embarks on a charm offensive, we had better be ready.

That said we need to continue to observe for indications inside the North and especially of Pyongyang of pressure on the regime, instability. The regime may very well be stressed with the self-inflicted economic breakdown and with a potential coronavirus crisis.

There is a lot to parse here.

8. N. Korea appears to be dialing back on threats amid internal challenges: experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 24, 2020

Of course, I provided the historical example of the North dialing back propaganda, calling for negotiations and then attacking the south.

I think there is also merit to the assessment the regime may be under too much internal pressure to generate the external tensions it usually does when it is stressed.

We need to be especially watchful for the indicators or internal regime stability.

I think it is useful to review Robert Collins' seven phases of regime collapse. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/

Phase One: resource depletion;

Phase Two: the failure to maintain infrastructure around the country because of resource depletion;

Phase Three: the rise of independent fiefs informally controlled by local party apparatchiks or warlords, along with widespread corruption to circumvent a failing central government;

Phase Four: the attempted suppression of these fiefs by the KFR once it feels that they have become powerful enough;

Phase Five: active resistance against the central government;

Phase Six: the fracture of the regime; and

Phase Seven: the formation of new national leadership.

We have long observed phases 1 through 4.

I think it is also important to recall our definition of regime collapse from our first contingency planning efforts in the 1990s. Collapse will occur when the regime cannot govern from the center and the military loses coherency. If the Kim family regime cannot govern the entire territory of the north from Pyongyang and the military chains of control break down so that the regime no longer as support of the military the regime will be unable to rule and survive.

But we should keep in mind the conditions that could lead to instability and regime collapse could also lead Kim Jong-un to execute his campaign plan to attack the South to unify the peninsula under North’s domination to ensure regime collapse. Instability and regime collapse will not be a benign event.

9. N.Korea 'Suspends Military Action' as Spy Planes Fly over

english.chosun.com · June 24, 2020

It is imperative to demonstrate readiness, strength, and resolve to maintain deterrence. Despite everything that is happening on the peninsula, the number one priority must be to deter an attack by Kim Jong-un. And of course, an ISR surge across the intelligence disciplines and with multiple platforms and capabilities is an absolute necessity at this time. We cannot be complacent just because the regime has given the appearance of somehow stepping back from the rhetorical brink.

10. Kim Jong Un Hits Pause Button on Threats Against South Korea

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong · June 24, 2020

The title is a good one. This may only be a pause. I have made points about the possibility of conflict and instability and regime collapse. But the pause button concept is important as well. We should never forget the regime is masterful at denial and deception. If we are seeing indicators in the North it may be what the regime wants us to see. The questions we have to keep in mind are always these:

Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

We need to be vigilant for the North's deception.

11. U.S.' B-52 bombers are deployed near Korean Peninsula

donga.com · June 24, 2020

Strength and resolve.

12. Anti-North activists defy local bans on leaflet campaigns

koreajoongangdaily · by Shim Kyu-seok · June 23, 2020

Part of the regime's plan may be to continue to exploit the work of the escapees/defectors and say the South is allowing hostile actions from its territory. We should keep in mind the work of these groups is in support of human rights in the North. Recall the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry that stated among the many human rights abuses and crimes against humanity the Korean people were denied information from the outside world and one of the recommendations was to provide information to the Korean people living in the North. The ROK and the ROK/US Alliance needs to stand up to the North's rhetoric against information operations and never again give into its threats.

13. U.S. concerned over North's nuclear activities in 2019: Report

koreajoongangdaily · by Sarah Kim · June 24, 2020

I have not read the report (but I just skimmed the North Kora section - link below). But we should remember that with everything happening on the Korean peninsula the regime is sitting on the proverbial powder keg.

Here is the link to the entire report:  https://www.state.gov/2020-adherence-to-and-compliance-with-arms-control-nonproliferation-and-disarmament-agreements-and-commitments-compliance-report-2/

Here is the link to the North Korean section: https://www.state.gov/2020-adherence-to-and-compliance-with-arms-control-nonproliferation-and-disarmament-agreements-and-commitments-compliance-report-2/#_Toc43298154

14. Seoul has to prepare for an era devoid of ROK-U.S. alliance

donga.com · June 24, 2020

This pains me to read. It does not have to be this way.

15. U.S. constantly assessing options to respond to N.K. threats: top general

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 24, 2020

The right message from the General. And as the PACAF commander he certainly provides critical airpower options to the ROK/US alliance.

16. [Korean War Anniversary] 'Just another day' still remembered 70 years on

koreaherald.com · by Choi He-suk · June 24, 2020

Tomorrow is the 70th Anniversary.

But June 24, 1950 is another important day. It is the anniversary of the grand opening of the ROK Army Officer's Club in Seoul. Most of the ROK military leadership was present that day (and night). I recall listening to General Paik Sun Yip, who was the young commander of the 1st ROK Division defending the Kaesong-Munsan approach. He tells of learning of the attack in the early morning hours of June 25th and getting in his jeep wearing his dress uniform and driving to the front line to command his division.
Surely the North Koreans were well aware of the grand opening and where all the ROK military leadership would be especially after they lulled the ROK and US into a sense of complacency as they halted their propaganda operations and called for negotiations in Kaesong.

-----------

"A popular government without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy, or perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives." 

- James Madison, from a letter to W.T. Barry, August 4, 1822

"The responsibility of great states is to serve and not to dominate the world."  

- Harry S. Truman, Message to Congress, April 16, 1945

"A trained and disciplined guerrilla is much more than a patriotic peasant, workman, or student armed with an antiquated fowling-piece and home-made bomb.  His endoctrination begins even before he is taught to shoot accurately, and it is unceasing.  The end product is an intensely loyal and politically alert fighting man." 

- Brig Gen S.B. Griffith in the Introduction to Mao's On Guerrilla Warfare, 1961.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Congress Wants to Better Understand Potential Risks from East Asian Adversaries

2. U.S. Soldier Admits Plotting With Neo-Nazi Cult to Kill Fellow Troops

3. Trump administration imposes new restrictions on Chinese state media outlets

4. Amid Virus Fears and Racial Discord, the World’s Bad Guys Dig In

5. Ex-CIA director, defense secretary Gates: US is paralyzed

6. U.S. soldier charged with plotting white supremacist terrorist attack against his own unit

7. US v China: is this the start of a new cold war?

8. What America Will Lose if the Voice of America Sounds Like Trump

9. The Stars and Stripes newspaper has long supported the troops. Now it needs Congress’s support.

10. China warns of reprisal as Japanese city changes disputed area name

11. Japan Has A Plan For Dismantling China’s Submarine Fleet

12. Corona and Bioterrorism: How Serious Is the Threat? 

13. Taiwan raps China for military activity, says it should fight virus instead

14. U.S. Republican lawmakers urge Trump to reconsider Germany troop reduction plan

15. Japan's strike options assume new urgency

16. China think tank calls for U.S. to keep military communications open

17. Japan says U.S. hasn't requested more money to host American troops

18. When the CIA Interferes in Foreign Elections

19. Colin S. Gray: A Reminiscence

20. SOCOM command and control visualize data

21. The first Muslim Green Beret was also in Iran's Special Forces

1. Congress Wants to Better Understand Potential Risks from East Asian Adversaries

airforcemag.com · by Alyk Russell Kenlan · June 22, 2020

Some good questions from Congress.

2. U.S. Soldier Admits Plotting With Neo-Nazi Cult to Kill Fellow Troops

The New York Times · by Alan Feuer · June 22, 2020

15259.   The enemy in our midst.

3. Trump administration imposes new restrictions on Chinese state media outlets

The Washington Post · By John Hudson and Carol Morello · June 22, 2020

While this may feel good for some of us, I think this is a slippery slope. Rather than restrict them we need to educate people about these news organizations.  We should use these organizations and their methods to turn people against the methods and tactics (and strategy) of the Chinese Communist Party.

4. Amid Virus Fears and Racial Discord, the World’s Bad Guys Dig In

WSJ · Gerald F. Seib · June 22, 2020

Authoritarian regimes versus freedom loving countries.  The modern ideological war.

5. Ex-CIA director, defense secretary Gates: US is paralyzed

AP · by Terry Spenser · June 22, 2020

Axios · by Ursula Perano

I am reminded of Napoleon.  I think the revisionist and rogue powers may be looking at us and remembering the dictum:  Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." Our political partisan polarization is a huge problem and a self-inflicted wound.

7. US v China: is this the start of a new cold war?

The Guardian · by Patrick Wintour · June 22, 2020

Note mention of the D10 of democracies in the penultimate paragraph. Democratic middle powers may play a greater role.

8. What America Will Lose if the Voice of America Sounds Like Trump

defenseone.com · by Anne Appelbaum

Please protect my beloved Voice of America (and Radio Free Asia, et al.)  Yes, this is a clickbait headline and much hyperbole but we need to ensure VOA remains true to its mission.  Some of the best journalists and journalism is found on VOA, et al.

9. The Stars and Stripes newspaper has long supported the troops. Now it needs Congress’s support.

The Washington Post · by Graham Vyse · June 22, 2020

A different mission and style and target audience of course but Stars and Stripes is another media organization that should be sustained.  I hope Congress will be able to protect both Stars and Stripes and VOA, et el. 

10. China warns of reprisal as Japanese city changes disputed area name

Reuters · June 22, 2020

What’s in a name?  How powerful are names?  China (and many Asian countries) are very sensitive about names.

11. Japan Has A Plan For Dismantling China’s Submarine Fleet

Forbes · by David Axe · June 22, 2020

Good for Japan and the alliance.  Very interesting how they plan to use their superior but outnumbered submarines.

12. Corona and Bioterrorism: How Serious Is the Threat? 

warontherocks.com · by Marc-Michael Blum · June 22, 2020

I think military and civil society need to consider the coronavirus crisis as a rehearsal for a biological weapons attack.  Just because bio attacks are rare or prone to failure I think our adversaries are also learning from the coronavirus and the effects it achieves. There must be myriad lessons learned. And even if another natural biological event occurs we should be better prepared for both natural events and man-made attacks.

13. Taiwan raps China for military activity, says it should fight virus instead

Reuters · by Ben Blanchard · June 23, 2020

14. U.S. Republican lawmakers urge Trump to reconsider Germany troop reduction plan

Reuters · by Patricia Zengerle · June 23, 2020

I wonder if some Congressmen regret not putting similar restrictions on troop withdrawal from Germany 9and other allies) as they did for Korea i the 2020 NDAA.  Congress will not provide funds for removal of troops in Korea below 28,500 unless the SECDEF certifies that the removal of the troops does no harm to US and ROK national security.

15. Japan's strike options assume new urgency

japantimes.co.jp · by Brad Glosserman · June 22, 2020

Interesting discussion of Japanese security planning.

16. China think tank calls for U.S. to keep military communications open

Reuters · by Yew Lun Tian · June 23, 2020

Now this is something I can agree with.  Open lines of communication are good. It improves the possibility that we can prevent misunderstanding and miscalculation and escalation.

17. Japan says U.S. hasn't requested more money to host American troops

Reuters · by Chang-Ran Kim and Daniel Leussink · June 23, 2020

When I met with Japanese officials last fall they were not concerned with the rumored $8 billion demand. They were more concerned with the stalemate in ROK-US SMA negotiations and the possibility of a US troop withdrawal from the Korean peninsula.

18. When the CIA Interferes in Foreign Elections

Foreign Affairs · by David Shimer · June 21, 2020

We must learn our lessons. Not encounter them (Joe Collins) or admire them.

David Robarge' comments remind me of "Spy vs Spy" as the KGB and CIA compete on the electoral battlefields.

An interesting discussion of our activities in the Balkans and in Iraq.

19. Colin S. Gray: A Reminiscence

warontherocks.com · by David J. Lonsdale · June 22, 2020

We lost a great modern strategic thinker. I would adapt one of his famous quotes from his book Fighting Talk:

“If Thucydides, Sun-tzu, and Clausewitz (AND Colin Gray) did not say it, it is probably not worth saying.” 

20. SOCOM command and control visualize data

militaryaerospace.com · John Keller · June 22, 2020

Mission Command will connect SOCOM warfighters and a larger military program that seeks to connect sensors and shooters in near-real time.

21. The first Muslim Green Beret was also in Iran's Special Forces

We are the Mighty · Blake Stilwell · June 19, 2020

A truly great American.  I had the honor of serving with him in 1-1 SFG n Okinawa.

--------

"Anybody can be angry, but to be angry with the right person, to the right degree, at the right time, for the right purpose, that is not easy."  

- Aristotle

"Living beings everywhere compete for the means of existence. Competition takes the more intense form we call conflict when ... contenders try to hamper, disable, or destroy rivals." 

- Jack Hirshleifer, The Handbook of Defense Economics, vol 1,  Keith Hartley and Todd Sandler, (eds).

"The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable." 

- H. L. Mencken

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea Threatens to Nuke U.S.

2. U.N. council adopts N.K. human rights resolution for 18th consecutive year 

3. N. Korean defectors' group says it sent leaflets to North overnight

4. N. Korea completes setting up some 20 loudspeakers along border

5 N.K. paper says S. Korea's pro-U.S. policies hinder inter-Korean relations

6. Trump threatened to pull troops if S. Korea didn't give $5 bln: Bolton memoir

7. Defectors matter for the North Korean economy

8. North Korea blew up the liaison office and its relations with the South

9. Top secret US documents show Japanese civilians fought in Korean War

10. It may be called the 'Forgotten War,' but the Korean conflict set the stage for decades of tensions

11. Get the facts straight (Korea)

12. Tensions intensify on Korean Peninsula after Bolton memoir is released

13. New documents on Korean War seized from N. Korea released to public

14. Real cause of North-South Korea crisis: Covid-19

15. War aftermath set Pyongyang's' militarism in stone

16. N.Korean Summits Were a Sham

17. Mirim Parade Ground Upgrades Nearing Completion 

18. North Korean jailed for helping to supply S$404,000 worth of luxury goods from Singapore to North Korea

19. Revisiting International Cooperation on Illicit Trafficking by Sea: Indonesia and the Final Voyage of the M/V Wise Honest (Part I)

1. N.Korea Threatens to Nuke U.S.

english.chosun.com

What is this? A trial balloon? A provocative statement with "deniability?  But it is actually a rather bland statement and one we have heard many times.  But the headline is good for clickbait. This is coming from the north Korean embassy in Moscow and being reported by TASS.  Of course no statements like this are released with Kim Jong-un's approval.  But I would not get too worked up over this.  This is business as usual especially as we approach the 70th. anniversary of the Korean War this week.

2. U.N. council adopts N.K. human rights resolution for 18th consecutive year 

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · June 22, 2020

Good.

We should keep in mind that human rights in north Korea is not only a moral imperative, it is also a national security issue.  Kim Jong-un must systematically and comprehensively deny the human rights of the Korean people living in the north to prevent any resistance and ensure his survival and that of the Kim family Regime.

We should also note that every time we talk about the regime's nuclear program we are enhancing the legitimacy of the regime.  However when we talk about human rights it not only undermines the legitimacy of the regime, it is a direct threat to the survival of the regime.  We should sustain pressure on the regime with human rights demands.

And note the counter accusations the regime made. 

3. N. Korean defectors' group says it sent leaflets to North overnight

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · June 23, 2020

Good work escapees.  I hope they do not face retribution from either the local or national government.  It is amazing they have to conduct "covert operations" to do this important work.

4. N. Korea completes setting up some 20 loudspeakers along border

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · June 23, 2020

Again this is mirror imaging.  The regime is telling us information is a threat to the regime.  I guess they do not realize north Korean information is no threat to the ROK government and has no influence over the Korean people in the  South other than for "entertainment" and satire and ridicule of the regime's efforts.  This illustrates how clueless is the regime.

5. N.K. paper says S. Korea's pro-U.S. policies hinder inter-Korean relations

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 22, 2020

No clearer indication is necessary than this.  The regime wants to split the ROK/US alliance. " Divide to conquer" - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK.

It is interesting that they criticized the MOFA/State strategy working group.  This was recently criticized in the South Korean press.  We should know the regime reads everything in the Korean media (and everything in the international media that concerns north Korea).

The best counter to the regime's strategy? Strengthen the ROK/US alliance.

6. Trump threatened to pull troops if S. Korea didn't give $5 bln: Bolton memoir 

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 22, 2020

No surprise here.  But Bolton's book is going to be used by anti-American political groups (and most likely north Korea) to split the ROK US alliance.  

It is no surprise that President Trump has a completely transactional view of alliances and assesses alliances based on the bottom line on a balance sheet.  But the Bolton book will be exploited. 

I wonder if Bolton's book will reveal how the $5 billion number was determined.

7. Defectors matter for the North Korean economy

nkeconwatch.com  · by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

This is an important analysis.  If remittances can get to families in the north, so can information. 

As the article indirectly points out, if we were creative we would work with escapees to develop a network to sponsor families in north Korea.  You see the advertisements on the TV - for $19.95 a month you can feed a starving child in an impoverished nation.  

We could provide direct help to families from people living in the South and the US.  More remittances would improve market economic activity and of course better the lives of many Koreans living in the north (and undermine the regime).

8. North Korea blew up the liaison office and its relations with the South 

japantimes.co.jp · by Thomas Cynkin · June 22, 2020

I agree that we will see increased tensions and possibly even violent provocations aimed at the South in the coming months. But we cannot rule out an October surprise either, though we should try to make it clear that regardless of the "surprise," short of war it will have no impact on the outcome of the US election.

9. Top secret US documents show Japanese civilians fought in Korean War

mainichi.jp

In all my studies I have never come across such a story.  I know many Korea soldiers were trained in Japan during the war as we established training bases there to build the ROK Army.  As noted, Japan provided logistical support. (And in fact the Japanese economy was rejuvenated because of the Korean War.)

My thought initially was perhaps these Japanese personnel had some important and unique technical skills but then I read about the ages of some - teenagers and a 9 year old and a 12 year old? I just cannot imagine why we would do that.  

I did a quick search through the GWU National Security Archive and I could not find any relevant documents.  I wish the author had provided a link.

This is a very strange story.  I can understand why the Japanese would be upset about it. I just cannot imagine us needing or wanting to employ "child soldiers" which I think is the implication.  Of course I know the Koreans employed teenagers but Korea was fighting for its life.

10. It may be called the 'Forgotten War,' but the Korean conflict set the stage for decades of tensions

Stars and Stripes

A short piece on the Korean War as we move toward the 70th Anniversary of the start of the war this week.

11. Get the facts straight (Korea)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Bolton's book is having an effect on the alliance but is also being used to criticize the Moon Administration.  The Joongang Ilbo editorial board makes a very strong accusation against the South National Security Advisor Chung  Eui-yong saying that if Bolton's account is correct Chung "cheated the United States."

12. Tensions intensify on Korean Peninsula after Bolton memoir is released

donga.com ·  June 23, 2020

It will be interesting to see how the north exploits the stories in Bolton's book.  How will they do this?  Will they confirm some of the allegations or north Korean intent as part of their propaganda messaging?

The final line of this article is ominous - will the "mud fight" between Chung and Bolton undermine trust between the Blue House and the White House?

13. New documents on Korean War seized from N. Korea released to public

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · June 23, 2020

This could be very useful to refute the revisionist historians who want to blame the US for starting the Korean War.  This appears to be  some very fascinating information that researchers and scholars may use to write new histories of the Forgotten War.

14. Real cause of North-South Korea crisis: Covid-19

asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider · June 23, 2020

A fascinating thesis and important analysis in this essay.

My sense (and this has been reported by Korea and economic experts so this is not an original thought) is the Coronavirus defense measures (draconian population and resources control measures) have had a greater effect on the suffering of the Korean people in the north than sanctions.  What that means is that sanctions are not focused on harming the Korean people but on preventing the regime from getting money and luxury goods and materials and technology for its nuclear and missile programs as well as interrupt the regime's global illicit activities.  The suffering of the Korean people is a result of Kim Jong-un policy decisions and not on UN and US sanctions.

We should think about what this means for stability in north Korea, both among the military and the general population.

15. War aftermath set Pyongyang's' militarism in stone

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · June 23, 2020

I love Bradley Martin's subtitle to this article.

The Korean war may be forgotten around the world but it is never far from the minds of the regime and the Koreans living in the north. I do not think we can understand  and appreciate the impact of US air power on north Korea and the devastation of nearly every city and major town in north Korea during the war.  These memories and images are used to indoctrinate Koreans from the youngest age (I love their math problems - You see four murderous American bastards and you shoot and kill two how many murderous American bastards do you have left to kill?)

This essay provides a walk through history from the Korean War to the Pueblo to see the path of the north's militarism.

16. N.Korean Summits Were a Sham

english.chosun.com

Three major newspapers, The Chosun Ilbo, The Donga Ilbo, and the Joongang Ilbo, have used the Bolton book to severely criticize the Mono administration's diplomacy.

17. Mirim Parade Ground Upgrades Nearing Completion 

38north.org · by Peter Makowsky · June 22, 2020

This is illustrative of the bankrupt policy decisions of Kim Jong-un.  To commit the resources to refurbish the parade grounds and then spend months committing military and civilian personnel to prepare for a military parade while the Korean people are suffering severe hardships because of the economic downturn and the response to the coronavirus is an illustration of both the incompetence and evil nature of the regime.

18. North Korean jailed for helping to supply S$404,000 worth of luxury goods from Singapore to North Korea

channelnewsasia.com

Small victories.  Singapore has long been a conduit for funds and luxury to get to the regime.

19. Revisiting International Cooperation on Illicit Trafficking by Sea: Indonesia and the Final Voyage of the M/V Wise Honest (Part I)

opiniojuris.org · Arron N. Honniball · June 23, 2020

For those who track north Korean sanctions and illicit shipping.  I will watch for part two.

------------

"Anybody can be angry, but to be angry with the right person, to the right degree, at the right time, for the right purpose, that is not easy."  

- Aristotle

"Living beings everywhere compete for the means of existence. Competition takes the more intense form we call conflict when ... contenders try to hamper, disable, or destroy rivals." 

- Jack Hirshleifer, The Handbook of Defense Economics, vol 1,  Keith Hartley and Todd Sandler, (eds).

"The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable." 

- H. L. Mencken

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Why the U.S. Is Moving Troops Out of Germany

2. The Challenges of Effective Counterterrorism Intelligence in the 2020s

3. A War of Meaningless Words

4.  "Beyond the Beltway" - What's the Civil-Military Crisis?

5. Opinion | Hegemony of china threatens the Asian century

6. Analysis | Who caused the violence at protests? It wasn't antifa.

7. China aims to complete its own GPS system, giving Beijing military independence in case of conflict

8. Trump's data-hungry, invasive app is a voter surveillance tool of extraordinary power

9.  Trump's Retreat From Germany Is a Victory for Putin

10. Taiwan boosts domestic defence development plan with new jet

11. Taiwan special forces train to counter Chinese incursions

12. Options for the U.S. to Wage Conflict in the Cognitive Domain

13.  On Deterrence, Defense and Arm Control: In Honor of Colin S. Gray

14. Mackenzie Eaglen on "5 Lessons the U.S. Military Learned From the Pandemic"

15. Military training develops mindset, not muscle

1. Why the U.S. Is Moving Troops Out of Germany

WSJ · by Robert C. O'Brien ·

I am sorry but the National Security Advisor's argument/explanation does not do it for me.  You do not give up the high ground because it is too hard to retake it.

2. The Challenges of Effective Counterterrorism Intelligence in the 2020s

lawfareblog.com · By Bruce Hoffman, Jacob Ware · June 21, 2020

Wise words and excellent analysis of the current and evolving terrorism landscape from my old boss.

3. A War of Meaningless Words

WSJ · by Andy Kessler · June 21, 2020

Words have meaning.  Or they don't. Or they have double meanings Or hidden meanings.  (or as Lewis Carroll wrote, "what I choose it to mean.)

4. "Beyond the Beltway" - What's the Civil-Military Crisis?

warontherocks.com · by Paula Thornhill · June 17, 2020

Some good questions from Paula Thornhill.

5. Opinion | Hegemony of china threatens the Asian century

Livemint · by Anil Padmanabhan · June 21, 2020

Does China seek hegemony?  If so what is China's definition of hegemony?  Interesting analysis of the China-India conflict.

6. Analysis | Who caused the violence at protests? It wasn't Antifa.

The Washington Post · by Meg Kelly and Elyse Samuels· June 22, 2020

This will get a rise out of some people.  This certainly does not track with the analysis on Fox News and OAN

7. China aims to complete its own GPS system, giving Beijing military independence in case of conflict

CNBC · by Arjun Kharpal · June 22, 2020

Will this be a game changer?  Does this mean China will attempt to take down our system?   Do not throw away your map, compass, and protractor. 

8. Trump's data-hungry, invasive app is a voter surveillance tool of extraordinary power

Technology Review · by Jacob Gursky and Samuel Wooley

So what if this was developed by the US government?  How would we feel about it?  Imagine if we developed something like this to do contact tracing and public health "surveillance?" Can a political party do what a government cannot?  And what are they going to do with all this data after the election?

9. Trump's Retreat From Germany Is a Victory for Putin

Bloomberg · by James Stavridis · June 22, 2020

From the former Supreme Allied Commander.

11. Taiwan special forces train to counter Chinese incursions

taiwannews.com.tw · by Taiwan News

I wish we could re-establish our old Special Forces Detachment in Taiwan as we had in the 1950s/1960s.  Taiwan should be developing an indigenous civilian resistance force as one part of its deterrence efforts.

12. Options for the U.S. to Wage Conflict in the Cognitive Domain

divergentoptions.org · by Divergent Options · June 22, 2020

We have to effectively operate in the cognitive domain! I actually want us to adopt all four of his recommendations. We not only have to be able to outfight our adversaries, we have to be able to outthink them. :-)

13. On Deterrence, Defense and Arm Control: In Honor of Colin S. Gray

realcleardefense.com · by Keith B. Payne

We can never study deterrence too much.

14. Mackenzie Eaglen on "5 Lessons the U.S. Military Learned From the Pandemic"

sites.duke.edu · by Charlie Dunlap, J.D. · June 17, 2020

Some of these excellent lessons will have very useful application well beyond the coronavirus crisis.  Kudos to USFK.

15. Military training develops mindset, not muscle

militarytimes.com · by Jonathan Cleck · June 18, 2020

------------

"Without a doubt, psychological warfare has proven its right to a place of dignity in our military arsenal."
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
 

"You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete."
- Buckminster Fuller

"A clever person solves a problem. A wise person avoids it."
- Albert Einstein

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Pyongyang's threats towards Washington

2. Ex-USFK commander urges readiness amid N. Korea's growing threats

3.  N. Korea preparing to send 12 mln leaflets to S. Korea via 3,000 balloons

4. North threatens U.S., as border balloon battle intensifies

5. Cheong Wa Dae says much of Bolton's memoir on Korea 'distorted'

6. N. Korea's decision to redeploy troops decided on last month

7. Why Rising Tensions on the Korean Peninsula Are Unlikely to Recede

8. N. Korea preparing military parade for party anniversary: defense ministry

9. N. Korea reinstalling propaganda loudspeakers along border: military officials

10. Kim Yo Jong and the "Party Center"

11. Cheong Wa Dae says much of Bolton's memoir on Korea 'distorted,' urges U.S. gov't to address such 'dangerous' case

12. Newly assigned American service member tests positive for coronavirus; total at 36

13. S. Korea, US show rift in dealing with North Korea

14. 'Seoul could re-impose strict social distancing'

15. Former combined forces No. 2 defends 2018 military pact with North

16. NK's liaison office demolition not in breach of military pact with South: minister

1. Pyongyang's threats towards Washington

donga.com by Young-Sik Kim June. 22, 2020

It has started.  But this is not unexpected.  There is only one response to this and it must be demonstration of alliance strength and resolve.  Now is not the time to go wobbly.  The pressure is on Kim Jong-un for his failures. The only thing he knows to is execute the decades old blackmail diplomacy., raise extensions and conduct provocations to gain political and economic concessions.

2. Ex-USFK commander urges readiness amid N. Korea's growing threats 

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 22, 2020

We need to pay attention to commanders like General Tilelli.  He has been through this and knows how the alliance must respond whether it is to provocation, conflict, or regime collapse.  It is all about readiness for the full spectrum of contingencies.  What is happening today with rhetoric and threats is not unusual and not new though of course the press, pundits, and politicos tend to think what happens in north Korea is happening for the first time. 

3. N. Korea preparing to send 12 mln leaflets to S. Korea via 3,000 balloons

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 22, 2020

I think the north may be mirror imaging.  Balloons and leaflets are no threat to the South.  But the regime is threatened by the South's leaflets.  If I were advising the South I would have the Korean people in the South collect the leaflets, read them, and then conduct public interviews so they can critique the information from the north, expose the lies and distortions and then broadcast those interviews back in the north  to undermine the regime and its propaganda efforts.

But I doubt the regime is really going to send 3000 balloons to the South. (though like Sun Tzu we cannot assume the regime won't do, we must be prepared).  

4. North threatens U.S., as border balloon battle intensifies

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

We should be prepared for some longer ranger missile tests and perhaps a satellite launch in the coming weeks or months.  If Kim does not see any potential change from the ROK or the US it may conduct an October surprise, and obvious one being a nuclear test or an ICBM test.  Kim will have by then calculated he is not going to get sanctions relief and will be willing to roll the dice thinking his actions will cause Trump to lose.  He will likely believe a  new US administration will want to diffuse tensions right away and he will try to exploit that. Whomever wins in November must stay the course and not give into any regime demands.

5. Cheong Wa Dae says much of Bolton's memoir on Korea 'distorted'

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 22, 2020

We should expect the Blue House to discount Bolton's accounts.

6. N. Korea's decision to redeploy troops decided on last month

dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi  · June 22, 2020

While these actions may have been a surprise to us I think if we step back and assess the events of the past 6 months or even going back to Hanoi in February 2019 I think we can see the regime's deliberate and long term planning pattern. And I think this is going to play out right up the November election.

7.  Why Rising Tensions on the Korean Peninsula Are Unlikely to Recede

The National Interest · by L Gordon Flake · June 21, 2020

That is right.  The Regime desires recognition as a nuclear power.

Gordon Flake is right and makes some important points: It is about sanctions relief, recognition as a nuclear power (and regime actions since Hanoi support that idea), and the north has not been immune to the coronavirus.  The regime is doing what it knows best as it is a one trick pony: blackmail diplomacy.

My assessment:

Kim Family Regime Strategy

* Vital Interest: Survival of the Kim Family Regime

* Strategic Aim: Unification of the Peninsula

* Subversion, coercion, extortion, use of force

* Key Condition: Split the ROK/US Alliance

* US forces off the Peninsula

* "Divide and Conquer" - Divide the Alliance and conquer the ROK

* Desire: Recognition as nuclear power - negotiate SALT/START

* Nuclear weapons key to deterrence - Hwang Jong Yop

* nK believes US will not attack a nation with nuclear weapons

8. N. Korea preparing military parade for party anniversary: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 22, 2020

A good sign. The nKPA cannot prep for a parade, execute the fall harvest, and attack the South (though it is very likely to conduct provocations learning up to the election).

9. N. Korea reinstalling propaganda loudspeakers along border: military officials

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 22, 2020

Again, more mirror imaging by the north. Do they really think these will have an effect on the South? This is another indicator of how much the regime fears information.  And of course this is another clear message that the north rejects the Comprehensive Military Agreement which is intended as an insulting message to President Moon.  I do not wish this on the soldiers of the DMZ (and the poor villagers of Taesongdong).  I had to listen to the loudspeaker war between the north-and South for 3 years when I was stationed on the DMZ in the 1980s.

10. Kim Yo Jong and the "Party Center"

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · June 22, 2020

Is Kim Yo-jong being groomed for succession or not?  This is a useful essay on the use of the term "party center."  But according to the source in this article there is not domestic effort to prepare the information environment for her succession and the author assesses she is not being groomed for succession at this time.  The most important point in the article is that the decisions she is supposedly making are all approved by Kim Jong-un.  He likely remains in full control.

11. Cheong Wa Dae says much of Bolton's memoir on Korea 'distorted,' urges U.S. gov't to address such 'dangerous' case

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 22, 2020

Yes, Bolton's book will cause further friction in the alliance.

12. Newly assigned American service member tests positive for coronavirus; total at 36

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 22, 2020

USFK has set a very positive standard for dealing with the coronavirus.

13. S. Korea, US show rift in dealing with North Korea

The Korea Times · June 22, 2020

Kim must be enjoying this.  This is exactly what he wants. This is one of the most important lines of effort to support his strategy to dominate the peninsula under this rule: "divide to conquer" - divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK.  One of the things his father and grandfather always tried to do is deal directly with the US to marginalize the South.  Nothing has changed.  Bolton's book contributes to the regime's measure of effectiveness assessment as it illustrates the rift and the "revelations" in book itself can further exacerbate the rift.

14.  'Seoul could re-impose strict social distancing'

The Korea Times · June 22, 2020

Lessons can and must be learned.  And the real test of South Korea's abilities is how it deals with these outbreaks.  We should remember that South Korea never looked down but rather employed sound public health practices to include social distancing.   

15. Former combined forces No. 2 defends 2018 military pact with North

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-Young · June 22, 2020

It has been a one way agreement. South Korea and the Alliance implemented the confidence and trust building measures in good faith.  The north did not other than "demilitarized" the JSA/Panmunjom and destroy and vacate guard posts in the DMZ.  The alliance has limited training (ti include live fire training) in the fortonline areas and established no fly zones in the forward areas which impact both readiness as well as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations.  Yes it is one of President Moon's signature achievements but the north has never fully lived up to its side of the agreement (as an example, the interpretation by supporters of the agreement is that the 21+ missile and rocket tests over the past year do not violate the agreement).

16.   NK's liaison office demolition not in breach of military pact with South: minister

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · June 22, 2020

Maybe not the letter but surely the spirit.  I am sure there is some international law or at least norms and standards this is in violation of.  At least good taste and decorum.  You do not blow up someone's $15 million building even if it is on your own territory.

But what this does is encourage more such actions by the north.  I am sure we will soon see the ROK constructed tourist buildings blown up at Kumgangsan.  Kim reads this and says all is well.  My blackmail diplomacy is working.

-------

Without a doubt, psychological warfare has proven its right to a place of dignity in our military arsenal."
- Dwight D. Eisenhower

"You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete."
- Buckminster Fuller

"A clever person solves a problem. A wise person avoids it."
- Albert Einstein

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Move Over, G7-We're Going to Get the "Democratic Ten" Now

2.  Top US diplomat calls UN rights body 'a haven for dictators'

3.  Push to purge Confederate names gets minimal traction around Fort Hood, but military is paying attention

4. Some Facebook groups created to protest lockdowns are now hotbeds for misinformation

5. A Conspiracy Made in America May Have Been Spread by Russia

6. Mission Failed: 5 Times U.S. Special Forces Couldn't Get The Job Done

7. 'Coronavirus cases in China were 37 times higher than reported in January'

8. How China Stole Its Way To Superpower Military Status (Thanks to Russia and America)

9. Japan Needs to Reconsider Its Decision to Suspend Its Aegis Ashore Deployments

10. China's 'open assault' on the West - China cyber attacks: Beijing's misinformation war against Australia

11. An Unlimited Attack on Limited War Draws a Counterattack on Theory

12. What American Cops Can Learn From the End of South Africa's Apartheid Policing

13. How America's Wars in Asia Militarized the Police at Home

14. Riots, Political Subversion, and the Communist Agitator's Playbook: A Lesson From History

15. There's Nothing Exceptional About Any Country

16. COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization: COVID-19 Cases in China Were Likely 37 Times Higher Than Reported in January 2020

1. Move Over, G7-We're Going to Get the "Democratic Ten" Now

The National Interest · by James Rogers · June 20, 2020

The "D10." Let's commit this to our lexicon.  It appears we are going to lining up with the open societies versus closed societies  or authoritarian regimes versus democratic nations.  This is my visualization. Per our NSS and NDS we have  two revisionist powers (China and Russia) and two rogue powers (Iran and north Korea) and violent extremist organizations.  All five are threats to democractic nations and the global order.

2. Top US diplomat calls UN rights body 'a haven for dictators'

The Washington Post · by Associated Press

3.  Push to purge Confederate names gets minimal traction around Fort Hood, but military is paying attention

expressnews.com · June 20, 2020

4. Some Facebook groups created to protest lockdowns are now hotbeds for misinformation

CNN · by Brian Fung, CNN Business

I do not think you need to be a member of these groups to see the misinformation about the coronavirus. I see it all the time on Facebook.

5. A Conspiracy Made in America May Have Been Spread by Russia

The New York Times · by Nicole Perlroth · June 15, 2020

There should be no doubt in any of our minds that the Russians (and others) are trying to undermine our election process especially through active measures and disinformation. It is up to us as citizens to defend ourselves.

We should heed these words from our National Security Strategy.

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation." (Page 14)

6. Mission Failed: 5 Times U.S. Special Forces Couldn't Get The Job Done

The National Interest · by Robert Farley · June 21, 2020

Professor Farley reviews Mark Moyer's new book.  Mark has written a number of books on the Intelligence and SOF community and military operations:

https://maxoki161.blogspot.com/2014/03/20-characteristics-of-special.html

 Phoenix and the Birds of Prey: The CIA's Secret Campaign to Destroy the Viet Cong (1997) ISBN 1-55750-593-4

Republished in 2007 as Phoenix and the Birds of Prey: Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism in Vietnam with a foreword by Harry Summers and a new preface and chapter; ISBN 0-8032-1602-5

Triumph Forsaken: The Vietnam War, 1954-1965 (2006) ISBN 0-521-86911-0

A Question of Command: Counterinsurgency from the Civil War to Iraq (2009) ISBN 0-300-15276-0

Strategic Failure: How President Obama's Drone Warfare, Defense Cuts, and Military Amateurism Have Imperiled America (2015) ISBN 1-4767-1324-3

Aid for Elites: Building Partner Nations and Ending Poverty through Human Capital (2016) ISBN 978-1-107-12548-3

Oppose Any Foe: The Rise of America's Special Operations Forces (2017) ISBN 978-0465053933

When reading about these failures (and any SOF operations) I recommend referring to the late LTG Sam Wilson's Characteristics of Special Operations, Principles of Special Operations, and Special Operations Planning Suggestions at this link.

https://maxoki161.blogspot.com/2014/03/20-characteristics-of-special.html

7. 'Coronavirus cases in China were 37 times higher than reported in January'

Livemint · June 21, 2020

8. How China Stole Its Way To Superpower Military Status (Thanks to Russia and America)

The National Interest · by Robert Farley · June 20, 2020

As one of my war college students said a decade ago, Chinese R&D is based on the method of "steal to leap ahead."

9. Japan Needs to Reconsider Its Decision to Suspend Its Aegis Ashore Deployments

realcleardefense.com · by Dan Gouré

But as we have read, Japanese domestic politics will trump this system.

10. China's 'open assault' on the West - China cyber attacks: Beijing's misinformation war against Australia

news.com.au · Jamie Seidel June 21, 2020

Political warfare with Chinese characteristics.  The Chinese Three Warfares: Psychological Warfare, Legal Warfare (Lawfare), and Media (or Public Opinion) Warfare.

I had to beat the horse even more dead but again the words in our NSS apply to more than just American but rather to all democratic countries and their populations:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation." (Page 14)

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf

11. An Unlimited Attack on Limited War Draws a Counterattack on Theory

realcleardefense.com · by Patrick Brady

I am reminded of some quotes on limited war.

"The utility of military power is limited only when the aims are limited, as they are now. When the aims, and potential consequences, of military action go up, so does the utility of military power." James Greer, COL, Ret former Director of SAMS

"It's limited war for Americans, and total war for those fighting Americans. The United States has more power; its foes have more willpower."
- Dominic Tierney 

"In limited war, applying technological band-aids to political vagueness and uncertainty. In total war, applying annihilating force to both economize and punish." 

- Dean Cheng, September 21, 2013

"You will kill ten of our men, and we will kill one of yours, and in the end it will be you who tires of it". 

- Ho Chi Minh (1969)

12. What American Cops Can Learn From the End of South Africa's Apartheid Policing

Daily Beast · Susan Collin Marks· June 21, 2020 

Interesting insights. The key point is political will.  And pressure must come from the bottom up and not top down.

The old system of apartheid had broken down, a new system had not yet been born, and the country was trying to navigate the vacuum in between.

13. How America's Wars in Asia Militarized the Police at Home

thediplomat.com · by Alireza Ahmadi· June 18, 2020

Interesting thesis.  I had not thought about the current situation in this way.

14. Riots, Political Subversion, and the Communist Agitator's Playbook: A Lesson From History

spectator.org · by Larry Alex Taunton

So much to learn from the Communists.  Surprisingly this article focuses on the Korean War and the north Korean prisoners on Koje island and the negotiations at Panmunjom.  An interesting read.

As an aside my basic reading list includes these publications:

In addition to Clausewitz, Sun Tzu, ARIS, Mao, The USMC Small Wars Manual, Sam Sarkesian, Jack McKuen, and Military and Civilian Reading Lists:

Ted Gurr - Why Men Rebel, 1970

Eric Hoffer - The True Believer, 1951 (23d ed., 2002)

Crane Brinton - Anatomy of a Revolution, 1965

Anna Simons - "21st Century Cultures of War: Advantage Them,"  (FPRI, April 1013)

Montgomery McFate - Military Anthropology: Soldiers, Scholars, and Subjects the Margins of Empire (2018)

China's Unrestricted Warfare (1999)

Gene Sharp  -  From Dictatorship to Democracy, 2002

Saul Alinksy - Rules for Radicals, 1971

15. There's Nothing Exceptional About Any Country

Bloomberg · by Andreas Kluth · June 20, 2020

I would push back a little on this. I do not say this with any intentional hubris but de Toqueville described why American was exceptional (geography, natural resources, security from two oceans, and the rugged individualism of Americans - but this combination is accidental and not found anywhere else).  But what makes America exceptional is that it is the only country founded on an idea and ideals. That is exceptional but it should be viewed in an arrogant way. The author is right, all countries are exceptional in that they have their unique characteristics. Every country is unique is its own way.  The problem with exceptionalism is when it is applied in the context of my country is superior to yours when instead we should be respectful of each country's exceptionalism while proud of our own and we should focus on protecting values rather than projecting (though we do believe in universal human rights and should always come down on the side of political and economic freedom for all without imposing our unique system).

16.  COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization: COVID-19 Cases in China Were Likely 37 Times Higher Than Reported in January 2020

Rand Corporation by Christopher A. Mouton, Russell Hanson, Adam R. Grissom, John P. Godges

A new RAND study.  Interesting graphic.

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"A popular government without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy, or perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives." 

- James Madison, from a letter to W.T. Barry, August 4, 1822

"If in taking a native den one thinks chiefly of the market that he will establish there on the morrow, one does not take it in the ordinary way."  

- Lyautey:  The Colonial Role of the Army,  Revue Des Deux Mondes, 15 February 1900

"In a national insurrection the center of gravity to be destroyed lies in the person of the chief leader and in public opinion; against these points the blow must be directed." 

- Clausewitz, 1833.The Encyclopedia of Nineteenth-century Land Warfare: An Illustrated World View By Byron Farwell, page 424.