News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. For the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, It is the North Korean Regime, Not Kim Jong Un per Se, That Is the Threat

2. Why Donald Trump Still Doesn't Understand North Korea

3. Trump to Pull Thousands of U.S. Troops from Germany

4.  Don't Be So Quick to Attack Moon Jae-in's North Korea Leaflet Decision

5.  The Government Is N.Korea's Puppet

6.  KDVA's ROK Memorial Day Message

7. Moon vows stronger national defense, security in Memorial Day address

8. North Korea's Supreme Sister scolds 'human scum' jeopardizing deal with south

9. Kim Jong-un: Terrifying reason behind North Korean leader's nuclear obsession exposed

10. North Korean Party Officials Required to do 'Voluntary' Labor on Farms

11. HRNK on the Passing of Mr. Yokota Shigeru, Megumi's Father

12. Remembering Otto: A Conversation with Cindy Warmbier

13.  S. Korea reports 51 new virus cases, most in 8 days 

14.  In South Korea, history and free speech collide in a battle to define democracy

1. For the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, It is the North Korean Regime, Not Kim Jong Un per Se, That Is the Threat

realcleardefense.com · by Scott W. Harold and Soo Kim

Interesting title.  The authors make an excellent point.  This is a very succinct but thorough assessment of the regime and its threats and ways ahead.  And we are grateful they acknowledged and linked to our maximum pressure 2.0 report.

As I have often written: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

2. Why Donald Trump Still Doesn't Understand North Korea

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · June 5, 2020

I do not know how Mr. Bandow knows this.  But if it is true it can only be that he is not listening to his expert advisors at State and the CIA.  I know many government officials who understand north Korea (as well as any of us can understand it given that it is one of the hardest targets).

But I wonder if Mr. Bandow has the same understanding of the Kim family regime (which is key to understanding north Korea) as some of us.

Kim Family Regime Strategy
* Vital Interest: Survival of the Kim Family Regime
* Strategic Aim: Unification of the Peninsula

* Subversion, coercion, extortion, use of force

* Key Condition: Split the ROK/US Alliance

* US forces off the Peninsula

* "Divide to Conquer" - Divide the Alliance to conquer the ROK

* Desire: Recognition as nuclear power - negotiate SALT/START
* Nuclear weapons key to deterrence - Hwang Jong Yop
* nK believes US will not attack a nation with nuclear weapons

north Korea Negotiating Strategy
(post Panmunjom, Singapore, Pyongyang, Hanoi Summits and. DMZ meeting)

Key "agreement:" denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
1. Change relationship - Declaration of the end of the war (end of hostile US policy - e.g., Peace regime)
2. Sanctions relief (permanent removal)
3. Denuclearization of the South (e.g., end of alliance, removal of troops, end of nuclear umbrella over ROK and Japan)
4. Then negotiate dismantlement of the north's and ICBM programs
* In Short:
    * nK: change relationship, build trust, denuclearize
    * US: denuclearize, build trust, change relationship

And I would ask Mr. Bandow to answer these questions

Key Questions for the Summit(s) and Beyond
1. Has the regime abandoned its strategy of the use of subversion, coercion, extortion, and force to unify Korea under northern domination to ensure regime survival?
2. Has the regime abandoned its objective to split the ROK/US Alliance to support its strategy?
3. Who does Kim fear more: US or Korean people?
4. What do we want to achieve in Korea?
5. What is the acceptable durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia that will serve and protect US and Alliance interests?

3. Trump to Pull Thousands of U.S. Troops from Germany

Wall Street Journal – Michael R. Gordon and Gordon Lubold - Updated June 5, 2020 6:49 pm ET

A significant event.  Will this resonate with South Korea?  Is it a message to South Korea (in addition to Germany and all our allies)?  This appears to me that we have finally shifted our alliance to a transactional based relationship rather than one based on shared interests. shared, values, and shared strategy.  The effects of such a change could affect US national power for decades to come.

4. Don't Be So Quick to Attack Moon Jae-in's North Korea Leaflet Decision

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · June 5, 2020

I am sorry Mr. DePetris.  I will be quick to criticize.  He made a huge mistake in sacrificing the human rights of the Koreans living in the north who have a right to information, and we all have a moral responsibility to help them get it.  His second major mistake and this is the worst mistake you can make with north Korea: He gave in to north Korean threats.  And not only did he give in, he did so quickly and now there is discussion of passing a law preventing information flow into the north. 

And as to the likelihood of his Peace Strategy working it is more than a long shot. I actually like his strategy.  It is visionary and very logical.  The problem is not with President Moon's strategy.  The problem is Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime.  There is no strategy that will work because every strategy goes against Kim protecting his vital national interest and achieving his strategic aims.  President Moon's strategy will only work is the answer to these two questions is yes:

1. Has the regime abandoned its strategy of the use of subversion, coercion, extortion, and force to unify Korea under northern domination to ensure regime survival?

2. Has the regime abandoned its objective to split the ROK/US Alliance to support its strategy?

The problem is not President Moon and his strategy. The problem is Kim Jong-un.  And to beat a dead horse: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

5. The Government Is N.Korea's Puppet

english.chosun.com

Strong criticism from the Chosun Ilbo editorial board.   I missed the point that the Blue House has abandoned the attempt to pass a new law to prevent escapees from sending information to the north due to concerns it would be a Constitutional violation.  That is some good news.   

6. KDVA's ROK Memorial Day Message

Most of us overlook ROK Memorial Day since it is on the 6th of June.  Here is a message from the Korean Defense Veterans Association.

KDVA's ROK Memorial Day Message

On this 6th day of June, the people of the Republic of Korea remember their Service Members who died during the Korean War and other conflicts. KDVA would like to ask you to join the Korean people in reflecting on and remembering all that they did for this important and great country. 

 KDVA honors their brave and heroic sacrifices by supporting the ROK-U.S. Alliance and the people who built the Alliance and continue to serve it.  They include the 28,500 U.S. Service Members serving in South Korea today and the millions of Korean and American troops who have served together in "The Land of the Morning Calm" since the start of the Korean War on June 25, 2020 and around the world in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.  

KDVA truly believes in working "Together for the ROK-U.S. Alliance." 

Sincerely,

General (Ret.) Walter Sharp

President and Chairman, KDVA

7. Moon vows stronger national defense, security in Memorial Day address

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 6, 2020

The right words.  Interestingly, liberal South Korean administrations increase defense spending.

I do wish he would have named north Korea as the existential threat to the Republic of Korea.  But that would go against his vision and narrative.  But there should be no doubt that the Korea soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines sacrificed their lives so the people of South Korea would not have to live under the despotic regime in north Korea.

8. North Korea's Supreme Sister scolds 'human scum' jeopardizing deal with south

RFI · by Jan van der Made · June 5, 2020

The Kim family regime are all bullies.  We should remember sticks and stones...

I wonder what it was like dealing with Kim Yo-jong when she came to the 2018 Olympics.

I am going to start using the "Supreme Sister."  You have the Seoul Sisters (LPGA golfers) in the South and the Supreme Sister in the north.

9. Kim Jong-un: Terrifying reason behind North Korean leader's nuclear obsession exposed

Express · by Josh Saunders · June 5, 2020

Perhaps it is in his DNA since his grandfather began the pursuit of nuclear weapons in the 1950s.

Most liberal Kim?  He became westernized?  Signs of a benevolent character? A different heart?  That is what we thought in 2011 when he came to power.  We hoped for change.  But the author saves himself by acknowledging he is still a brutal dictator.

The author acknowledges the paradox - nuclear weapons are an insurance policy to keep the regime in power indefinitely but will not pull the trigger and use them because that will mean the end of the regime.   That may seem logical, but I would posit the regime does have plans to use them in war

10. North Korean Party Officials Required to do 'Voluntary' Labor on Farms

rfa.org - 2020-06-05

Everyone needs to do some voluntary labor to cleanse their communist-juche souls.

11. HRNK on the Passing of Mr. Yokota Shigeru, Megumi's Father

https://www.hrnk.org/events/announcements-view.php?id=73

12. Remembering Otto: A Conversation with Cindy Warmbier

The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) cordially invites you to:

Remembering Otto:

A Conversation with Cindy Warmbier

Friday, June 19, 2020

11:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.

RSVP

13. S. Korea reports 51 new virus cases, most in 8 days

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · June 6, 2020

Please do not panic South Korea.  Keep pressing.

14. In South Korea, history and free speech collide in a battle to define democracy

South China Morning Post – Josh Power - Published: 7:00am, 5 Jun, 2020

To honor the South Korean democracy movement the government must ensure it remains a liberal democracy that defends and protects the rights of the people to include freedom of speech, press, religion, and assembly.  Stifling free speech and press is one of the most undemocratic actions a government can take. 

This really saddens me.

In honor of the Resistance on D-Day:

"Jean has a long mustache"

"There is a fire at the insurance agency,"

"Molasses tomorrow will bring forth cognac."

"Courvoisier, we're coming to visit you."

"When a sighing begins / In the violins / Of the autumn-song"

"My heart is drowned / In the slow sound / Languorous and long."

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1.  In Honor of D-Day

2. Questions arise over Special Forces guarding Donald Trump from protests

3. Utah Guard Sends Green Berets to DC to Assist in Civil Unrest Response

4. Chinese soccer superstar calls for ouster of Communist Party, stunning nation

5. White House Report Recommends Multi-Pronged Approach to Counter China (DOD Defense News article)

6. Should the US move to strengthen ties with Taiwan?

7. Protests, a pandemic and evidence of a hybrid war

8. This is Not a Civil-Military Crisis

9. 89 former Defense officials: The military must never be used to violate constitutional rights

10. Reaping What We Sowed: Coronavirus Pandemic Is Our Wake Up Call

11. DIA staffers 'raise fears about supporting domestic surveillance'

12. China could lose 95% of ballistic, cruise missiles under strategic arms control pact, says new analysis

13.  Former Army sergeant arrested after allegedly posing as a National Guardsman during protests in Los Angeles

14. Does America Have Enough Access in the Western Pacific?

15. The Military and FBI Are Flying Surveillance Planes Over Protests

16. China bests US on key New Cold War battleground

17. Pentagon War Game Speculated Uprising From 'Psychologically Scarred' Generation Z, Report Says

18. Philippines' move to keep US military pact reveals shift in South China Sea calculations

1.  In Honor of D-Day

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqD5UDNuANE&feature=youtu.be

Here is the link to the OSS short film (15 minutes): "Operation Overlord: OSS and the Battle for France." Note also Secretary Panetta's opening comments as he discusses the National Museum of Intelligence and Special Operations (NMISO). I am on the committee that is building the museum.

2. Questions arise over Special Forces guarding Donald Trump from protests

ABCNews.com · by ABC News

Yes, this is not a good look for the SF Regiment. 

I am reminded of a Tom Ricks' novel. A Soldier's Duty: A Novel https://www.amazon.com/Soldiers-Duty-Novel-Thomas-Ricks/dp/0375760202

I believe he had the US Army Special Forces conducting a palace coup and then the US Marines thwarting it.

3. Utah Guard Sends Green Berets to DC to Assist in Civil Unrest Response

military.com · by Matthew Cox · June 4, 2020

Yes, not a good look. But orders are orders.  And 19th SFG was ready for another deployment.

4. Chinese soccer superstar calls for ouster of Communist Party, stunning nation

The Washington Post – Gerry Shih - June 5, 2020 at 7:14 a.m. EDT

This is a pretty amazing development.  Certainly, the CPP will consider one of the highest threats to its rule.  Look how fast they shut things down.  But they cannot totally prevent it from getting through.  I hope the Spanish security forces are ready to deal with the what may come next from Chinese security services.

5. White House Report Recommends Multi-Pronged Approach to Counter China (DOD Defense News article)

defense.gov · by JIM GARAMONE

This is just out from the Department of Defense.  Two points.  DOD basically says the National Defense Strategy supports the new approach. I think the pictures are meant to highlight DOD's main contribution to security: Air and sea power. A picture is worth a thousand words though to have real effects we need extended presence of those assets in the Asia-Pacific region (oops, I mean Indo-Pacific, old habits die hard).

I also wonder how much we will see of this line used as part of our messaging. Quote: "By the same token, our vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region does not exclude China," according to the report. "The United States holds the [People's Republic of China] government to the same standards and principles that apply to all nations."

6. Should the US move to strengthen ties with Taiwan?

The Hill · by Jeffrey W. Hornung and Scott W. Harold, Opinion Contributors · June 5, 2020

Short answer, yes. I am afraid not strengthening will send the wrong message and may be tantamount to abandoning it. Miscalculation on Taiwan can be catastrophic, so it is best to ensure our intentions are clear and that we are not going to allow Taiwan to fall victim to outside coercion, or worse.  Yes, an ambiguous stance may have been useful in the past but I think we have to demonstrate strategic reassurance and strategic resolve if we want to prevent war.

7. Protests, a pandemic and evidence of a hybrid war

c4isrnet.com · by Oleksandr Danylyuk · June 5, 2020

A very provocative theory from a Ukrainian perspective. Is a hybrid war being waged against the US?  I do not know the author or anything about him other than what is in his biography below.  But based on his biography it appears he might have some personal experience with hybrid warfare and an academic foundation as well.  The article is really describing what Russia did to Ukraine in an attempt to make use understand what the author believes may be happening to us.  

If what he says is true and if we could sufficiently prove that Russia (or anyone else) is attacking us with hybrid means and exploiting the George Floyd situation, would that be sufficient to unify the American people against an external enemy?  Or are the divisions in America too great at this time?

8. This is Not a Civil-Military Crisis

defenseone.com · by James Joyner

The bottom line according to the Professor: the uniformed leadership statements okay 9except for contradicting POTUS' view because "they're anodyne expressions of the requirements of the Constitution and the law of the land."  It is the actions of the retired leadership that is problematic but hardly a civil-military relations crisis.  Read the conclusion in the final paragraph.

9. 89 former Defense officials: The military must never be used to violate constitutional rights

The Washington Post · by 89 former Defense officials

If the Democrats win the White House, you can use this list as a helpful scorecard for who will be serving in senior administration positions.  Setting aside the Republicans on this I think there is a potential SECDEF and SECSTATE and at least a handful of potential national security advisors.

10. Reaping What We Sowed: Coronavirus Pandemic Is Our Wake Up Call

theepochtimes.com · by Suzanne Scholte · June 5, 2020

Suzanne Scholte is a great humanitarian and a great American.  As an aside she and her Defense Forum Foundation is one of the biggest supporters of information and influence operations in north Korea.  The story she tells and the experiences she describes are evidence of the words in our 2017 National Security Strategy:

"For decades, U.S. policy was rooted in the belief that support for China's rise and for its integration into the post-war international order would liberalize China. Contrary to our hopes, China expanded its power at the expense of the sovereignty of others. China gathers and exploits data on an unrivaled scale and spreads features of its authoritarian system, including corruption and the use of surveillance. It is building the most capable and well-funded military in the world, after our own. Its nuclear arsenal is growing and diversifying. Part of China's military modernization and economic expansion is due to its access to the U.S. innovation economy, including America's world-class universities."

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf

11. DIA staffers 'raise fears about supporting domestic surveillance'

Daily Mail · by Lauren Edmonds For Dailymail.com · June 5, 2020

I am surprised I did read the acronym COINTELPRO in this article.  See this 1976 senate report (https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/94755_II.pdf) to include: "Amy Surveillance of Civilian Political Activity. " Perhaps there is master’s thesis or a PhD dissertation comparing current conditions and activities with the 1960s COINTELPRO.

12. China could lose 95% of ballistic, cruise missiles under strategic arms control pact, says new analysis

Defense News · by Mike Yeo · June 5, 2020

This seems like sufficient rationale for China not to participate in arms control negotiations.

13. Former Army sergeant arrested after allegedly posing as a National Guardsman during protests in Los Angeles

taskandpurpose.com · by Paul Szoldra

14. Does America Have Enough Access in the Western Pacific?

The National Interest · by Blake Herzinger · June 5, 2020

Prepare for zero access.  That is quite a statement and I have not heard it expressed that way before.  This is really the key point: Quote: "Spanning from critical repair and replenishment functions to overflight permissions and divert airfields, the premise of access in nations such as Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, Japan, Korea, and elsewhere is crucial to American operational plans."  Without action we have few options and no freedom of action.  Think about what will happen to Korea and Taiwan. 

15. The Military and FBI Are Flying Surveillance Planes Over Protests

Vice · June 6, 2020

I am reminded of Secretary Albright's comments in the 1990s, "What good is to have a military if you do not use it."  Of course, she was talking about overseas employment. Perhaps a similar question is being asked today.

16.  China bests US on key New Cold War battleground

asiatimes.com · by Richard S Ehrlich · June 6, 2020

The problem with articles like this is it is not over until it is over. While the anecdotes provide some indicators, the problem is it is too soon to make these kinds of judgments.  Maybe they will bear out but maybe they will not, depending on US diplomatic actions.

17. Pentagon War Game Speculated Uprising From 'Psychologically Scarred' Generation Z, Report Says

inquisitr.com · by Tyler MacDonald · June 5, 2020

It is amazing how conspiracy theorists like Nick Turse (who originally reported this at The Intercept) can spin a theoretical war game (original article here: https://theintercept.com/2020/06/05/pentagon-war-game-gen-z/).  This is not an intelligence assessment (which was noted).  If you are going to support and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic, you have to think about the full spectrum of threats that could possibly arise.  You at least have to assess the most likely threats as well as the most dangerous threats and everything in between.

18. Philippines' move to keep US military pact reveals shift in South China Sea calculations

South China Morning Post – Maria Siow - Published: 4:15pm, 6 June 2020

I imagine there was some very good behind the scenes diplomacy taking place to make this happen.  And perhaps China's actions helped as well.

In honor of the Resistance on D-Day:

"Jean has a long mustache"

"There is a fire at the insurance agency,"

"Molasses tomorrow will bring forth cognac."

 "Courvoisier, we're coming to visit you."

"When a sighing begins / In the violins / Of the autumn-song"

"My heart is drowned / In the slow sound / Languorous and long.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. North Korea lashes out at U.S., Saying China is eclipsing It

2. North Korea eases coronavirus lockdown because even totalitarian states need trade

3. North Korea warns South Korea to stop defectors from scattering anti-North leaflets: KCNA

4. Cheong Wa Dae vows 'stern' response to anti-North leaflet campaigns posing threat to security

5. S. Korea to legislate ban on anti-Pyongyang leaflet campaign after N.K. threats

6. North Korea threatens to halt Military Agreement with South over anti-Pyongyang leaflets flown over Border

7. North Korea cracks down on SARCASM (great idea!)

8. Greater Seoul under threat of further spread, high alert over 'silent' virus spreaders

9. South Korea approves antiviral drug to treat COVID-19

10. North Korea is importing construction materials from China

11. Korea threatens to let Intel-Sharing Pact with Japan lapse

12. U.S. accepts S. Korea's proposal to pay local USFK base workers

13. USFK raps local daily for false report, vows commitment to conditions-based OPCON transfer

14. 'Korea's response to COVID-19 serves as model for the world': Jared Diamond

1. North Korea lashes out at U.S., Saying China is eclipsing It

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · June 4, 2020

The North is embarking on a new propaganda campaign. The regime senses an opportunity with the upheaval in the US and the challenge the US is facing around the world.

What is troubling in South Korea's reaction to it. The South is playing right into the North's strategy.

2. North Korea eases coronavirus lockdown because even totalitarian states need trade

The Washington Post · by Simon Denyer and Min Joo Kim · June 2, 2020

Again, perhaps the regime's draconian population and resources control measures have been successful in preventing or containing the coronavirus. Yes, as the title says the regime needs trade.  

But I wonder if what we are seeing is the beginning of an execution of a new campaign to influence the ROK and US. The regime is conducting blackmail diplomacy (and it already appears the South has succumbed to it). But what effect does the regime expect to achieve if it is embarking on a new campaign?

3. North Korea warns South Korea to stop defectors from scattering anti-North leaflets: KCNA

Reuters · by Sangmi Cha · June 4, 2020

This should be an indicator that information and influence activities work and are a threat to the regime. Now should be the time to not only double down but to implement a sophisticated and holistic information and influence activities campaign and fully support these escapee organizations. These organizations are operating on shoestring budget and relatively primitive technology and equipment with no support from the ROK government and yet are punching well above their weight and achieving demonstrable effects.

4. Cheong Wa Dae vows 'stern' response to anti-North leaflet campaigns posing threat to security

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · June 4, 2020

Oh no. This is so wrong. This is succumbing to the Kim family regime's blackmail diplomacy (to conduct provocations and raise tensions to get political and economic concessions). The regime is threatened by information and is not forcing the South to protect the regime. This is so disappointing but not unexpected. I think I know what will happen in the future. Based on the South's response the regime will be making even more demands. The regime sees the response as an indication that its blackmail diplomacy is working. So, we will see more of it.

5. S. Korea to legislate ban on anti-Pyongyang leaflet campaign after N.K. threats

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 4, 2020

We should remember what the 2014 Commission of Inquiry on human rights in North Korea said. One of the human rights abuses by the regime is not allowing the people to have access to information. Nearly every human rights report says that nations should work to get information into the North to the people. Passing this proposed law is a statement the ROKG sides with the Kim family regime. This is such a terrible decision. The irony is that the South will not benefit from this in any way. There will be no reciprocity from the North. The North will not accept South engagement proposals (unless a very large amount of funds is transferred directly to the regime) and the north will not return to nuclear negotiations because of this action. This action will only beget more demands from the regime.

6. North Korea threatens to halt Military Agreement with South over anti-Pyongyang leaflets flown over Border

TIME · by Kim Tong-Hyung · June 3, 2020

The Moon administration touts the September 19th Comprehensive Military Agreement as a great success and wants to protect it. Yet it has not paid off. The North has not shown any reciprocity in confidence or trust building measures. Again, this the North's blackmail diplomacy. And it knows what to threaten to push the Moon administration's buttons. And no one should be afraid of this rhetoric from Kim Yo-jong.

If the South gives in to these threats (which it appears they will do) it should expect more threats like this.

7. North Korea cracks down on SARCASM (great idea!)

Daily Mail · by Chris Jewers For Mailonline · June 3, 2020

This is one of the reasons for Kim Yo-jong's push against escapees in the South to stop sending information into the North. One of the things they are sending in on thumb drives and other media is the South Korean K-drama, "Crash Landing on You". As we assessed this would have useful propaganda value in the north on a number of levels. The fact that this sarcastic phrase appears to be in widespread use is an indicator of the reach of this K-drama and should reinforce our calls for a sophisticated information and influence activities campaign.

8. Greater Seoul under threat of further spread, high alert over 'silent' virus spreaders

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · June 4, 2020

The numbers remain relatively low and while Koreans are rightly concerned, they seem to be managing this better than most.

9. South Korea approves antiviral drug to treat COVID-19

arynews.tv · by Reuters · June 3, 2020

10. North Korea is importing construction materials from China

dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui · June 3, 2020

Sanctions violation. China is complicit. Also note the discussion on smuggling.

11. Korea threatens to let Intel-Sharing Pact with Japan lapse

english.chosun.com · by Kim Jin-myung · June 3, 2020

We should have expected this. But this does nothing to help South Korean (or US or Japanese) national security. I am reminded of the gunman holding himself hostage with a gun to his own head who says - "don't come any closer or I will shoot."

12. U.S. accepts S. Korea's proposal to pay local USFK base workers

donga.com · June 4, 2020

I am not sure how this decision leads to a more fair equitable burden sharing as long as the US continues to demand $4 billion.

13. USFK raps local daily for false report, vows commitment to conditions-based OPCON transfer

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 4, 2020

This is the work of a faction in the South who wants to eliminate the UN Command and who believe the US wants the UN Command to be the "higher headquarters" after the OPCON transition happens with a new ROK General commanding the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. (This is a patently false accusation). This is also the work of people in South Korea who want to split the ROK/US alliance (which of course is also a major objective of north Korea. (Think about that - the north's supporting strategy is "divide to conquer" - divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK).

14. 'Korea's response to COVID-19 serves as model for the world': Jared Diamond

koreaherald.com · by Ock Hyun-ju · June 4, 2020

High praise from Mr. Diamond.  

-----------

"In this sad world of ours sorrow comes to all and it often comes with bitter agony. Perfect relief is not possible except with time. You cannot now believe that you will ever feel better. But this is not true. You are sure to be happy again. Knowing this, truly believing it will make you less miserable now. I have had enough experience to make this statement." 

 - Abraham Lincoln

The history that lies inert in unread books does no work in the world.
If you want a new idea, read an old book.
`Tis the good reader that makes the good book.
A book is like a mirror. If an ass looks in, no prophet can peer out.

- The "maxims" quoted come from Clark Becker, Lord Lytton, Ralph Waldo Emerson, and Georg Lichtenberg quoted in Jay Luuvas' "Military History: Is It Still Practicable? " 

"Education should implant a will and a facility for learning; it should produce not learned but learning people.  In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists." 

- Eric Hoffer

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Thomas Jefferson signed the Insurrection Act in 1807 to foil a Plot by Aaron Burr

2. Washington looks to Five Eyes to build anti-China coalition

3. Trump must exploit Xi's new imperialism

4. FDD | Military and Veteran Groups decry ICC Investigation

5. An Appeal to the National Security Community to fight Racial Injustice

6. We are the Useful Idiots: How Our Nation divided is playing straight into the Hands of Our Greatest Enemies

7. Meet the Drone Startup scoring Millions in Government Surveillance Contracts

8. Hong Kong at risk of a repeat of Tiananmen

9. "Operation Overlord: OSS and the Battle for France"

10, A divided America cannot compete in a superpower duel with China

11. Service Chiefs acknowledge Racism in the Ranks, Pledge Dialogue, Change

12. The Endangered Asian Century: America, China, and the Perils of Confrontation

13. The End of Europe's Chinese Dream

14. 'Wolf Warrior Diplomacy': Israel's China Strategy in Peril

15. On the Path to Intellectual Overmatch

16. SOCOM looking to bake in AI Requirements on Every New Program

17. The United States and the New World Disorder: Retreat from Primacy

18.  How the World Views the Protests in America

1. Thomas Jefferson signed the Insurrection Act in 1807 to foil a Plot by Aaron Burr

history.com · by Dave Roos

It is always useful to review some history to help guide us in the future.

2. Washington looks to Five Eyes to build anti-China coalition

Financial Times · by Katrina Manson · June 3, 2020

Allies are critical to US national security and foreign policy.

3. Trump must exploit Xi's new imperialism

washingtontimes.com · by Gary Anderson

To exploit the situation, we have to play our superior form of political warfare. I still think we can take some lessons from George Kennan's policy planning memo.

4. FDD | Military and Veteran Groups decry ICC Investigation

fdd.org · by Orde Kittrie Senior Fellow · June 3, 2020

The ICC is a threat to US military and government personnel.  It is good to see these veteran's organizations step up to oppose the ICC investigations.

5. An Appeal to the National Security Community to fight Racial Injustice

Foreign Policy · by Bishop Garrison, Jon Wolfsthal · June 2, 2020

An interesting argument. Everyone should be united in protecting American values: individual liberty and freedom, liberal democracy, free market economy and human rights. Our national security and foreign policies rest on those values. There are two things we should keep in mind. Our nation was founded on an idea and ideals (which makes us one of a kind) and what has made America exceptional is we have admitted and more importantly corrected our mistakes. And we have to continue to correct our mistakes to make the American experiment work in order to strive to form a more perfect union.

6. We are the Useful Idiots: How Our Nation divided is playing straight into the Hands of Our Greatest Enemies

havokjournal.com · by Alice Atalanta · June 2, 2020

Yes, this is a clickbait title. But I do think too many of us are useful idiots. But read on.  

(note that from there are six types of "Useful Idiots from the article at this link: https://unherd.com/2018/06/six-types-useful-idiot/. -  The Seeker. The Utopian, The Power Worshipper, The Relativist, The Stability-Fetishist, The Nostalgist) - it is amazing how many of these types we see on social media. We should be on the lookout for them and most important we should make sure we are not one of them).

Chris Costa hits the nail on the head here. 

But after insulting us (note sarcasm) Dr. Atalanta provides some practical advice. 

7. Meet the Drone Startup scoring Millions in Government Surveillance Contracts

Forbes · by Thomas Brewster · June 3, 2020

It is a brave new world and Big Brother's capabilities are growing.

8. Hong Kong at risk of a repeat of Tiananmen

taipeitimes · by Hsiao Hsu-hsing 蕭徐行 · June 2, 2020

I suppose the key indicator will be when the PLA rolls tanks into Hong Kong. 31 years ago today (June 4, 1989) I was in the field conducting training when Tiananmen happened. Our communications sergeant tuned into the news on our PRC-70 radio and we listened to the reports and wondered if this would cause greater resistance in China but of course the PLA crushed it.

9. "Operation Overlord: OSS and the Battle for France"

To commemorate the 76th anniversary of D-Day, The OSS Society will release "Operation Overlord: OSS and the Battle for France" on June 6th. This film tells the story of Allied special forces whose daring exploits changed the course of WW2. https://youtu.be/_3Do20mH2us

10, A divided America cannot compete in a superpower duel with China

Financial Times · by Janan Ganesh · June 3, 2020

A view from the UK. I wonder if our adversaries recall the Napoleon dictum: “Never interrupt your enemy have he is making a mistake."  And we need to remember our President Lincoln: "A house divided against itself cannot stand.”

11. Service Chiefs acknowledge Racism in the Ranks, Pledge Dialogue, Change

defenseone.com · by Marcus Weisgerber, Kevin Baron, and Bradley Peniston · June 3, 2020

Are we going to see a civil-military relations crisis?

12. The Endangered Asian Century: America, China, and the Perils of Confrontation

Foreign Affairs · by Lee Hsien Loong · June 4, 2020

An interesting read. Asian countries do not want to choose between the US and China. China cannot replace the US as a security partner and the US cannot replace China as an economic. The old adage of "Europe is the continent of the past, America is the continent of the present, and Asia is the continent of the future "may still not hold true according to the author. But it seems like US-PRC confrontation is going to drive foreign policy and strategy for some years to come and the future of Asia will be dependent on the strategic decisions made by the US and the PRC.

13. The End of Europe's Chinese Dream

project-syndicate.org · by Mark Leonard · May 26, 2020

Can Europe decouple of at least reduce dependence on China? This is the recommended way ahead for the EU.

14. 'Wolf Warrior Diplomacy': Israel's China Strategy in Peril

middleeastmonitor.com · by Ramzy Baroud · June 3, 2020

The relationship between Israel, China, and the US is an interesting one. The author argues the Israeli strategy of being able to play both sides may no longer be possible.

15. On the Path to Intellectual Overmatch

warontherocks.com · by Adam Oler · June 3, 2020

More on professional military education. In my mind it is not the institution but the individual. That is why I am fond of Eric Hoffer's quote here: "Education should implant a will and a facility for learning; it should produce not learned but learning people. In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists."  - Eric Hoffer

16. SOCOM looking to bake in AI Requirements on Every New Program

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

I do not think T.E. Lawrence was anticipating AI when he said this: "Irregular warfare is far more intellectual than a bayonet charge." However, while we focus on the high end technology and "bake" AI into ll programs, sometimes you still need to be able to conduct a bayonet charge depending on the conditions.

17. The United States and the New World Disorder: Retreat from Primacy

carnegieendowment.org · by Aaron David Miller, Richard Sokolsky

The authors argue Russia and China are here to stay but they cannot lead. I like his description of "small tribes, big powers." They argue Iran and north Korea has successfully pushed back on the US. Finally, the authors ask if the US is divided at home will it lead in international affairs?

18.  How the World views the Protests in America

Bloomberg · by Robert Burgess · June 3, 2020

A survey of views of writers in Europe, Asia, and Australia.

-----------

"In this sad world of ours sorrow comes to all and it often comes with bitter agony. Perfect relief is not possible except with time. You cannot now believe that you will ever feel better. But this is not true. You are sure to be happy again. Knowing this, truly believing it will make you less miserable now. I have had enough experience to make this statement." 

 - Abraham Lincoln

The history that lies inert in unread books does no work in the world.
If you want a new idea, read an old book.
`Tis the good reader that makes the good book.
A book is like a mirror. If an ass looks in, no prophet can peer out.

- The "maxims" quoted come from Clark Becker, Lord Lytton, Ralph Waldo Emerson, and Georg Lichtenberg quoted in Jay Luuvas' "Military History: Is It Still Practicable? " 

"Education should implant a will and a facility for learning; it should produce not learned but learning people.  In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists." 

- Eric Hoffer

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Mobilizing the military for domestic operations: some legal considerations

2. Seeking information on individuals inciting violence during First Amendment-protected peaceful demonstrations

3. Defense officials backtrack on Trump's claim that Gen. Milley is 'in charge' of military response to violent protests

4. New psychology research finds extreme protest actions reduce popular support for social movements

5. Pentagon says guard did not tear-gas protesters; Downplays role in militarized response

6. Is it revolution? (the civil unrest in the US)

7. Guard troops in DC say they want to 'give people the opportunity to express their First Amendment rights'

8. Presidents and 'presidents'

9. Beijing flexes its muscles - and Washington better get ready

10. Special operators in Syria are First American Unit to use computerized sights on their rifles

11. Philippines suspends abrogation of defense pact with US

12. Hard-core agents provocateurs infiltrate US protests

13. Viruses: Biological versus computer

14. The Overmilitarization of American Foreign Policy 

15. A (resignation) letter to Defense Secretary Mark Esper 

16. 'I wish you the best': US military adviser resigns after Trump's controversial photo op at church

17. Three strategists walk into a bar

18. The Pen is mightier than the Sword? - SOF Need Both

1. Mobilizing the military for domestic operations: some legal considerations

sites.duke.edu · by Charlie Dunlap, J.D. · June 2, 2020

From one of the military's best legal minds. And we should all take heed this advice.

2. Seeking information on individuals inciting violence during First Amendment-protected peaceful demonstrations

fbi.gov

A PSA, just in case when you are out at the protests and you come across suspicious persons. Consider the concept of "pseudo operations" adapted for the current civil unrest: "Pseudo operations are those in which government forces disguised as guerrillas, normally along with guerrilla defectors, operate as teams to infiltrate insurgent areas. This technique has been used by the security forces of several other countries in their operations, and typically it has been very successful." https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/1712.pdf 

Rather than government forces consider extremist groups infiltrating as protestors. Also consider members of extremist groups infiltrating security reports such as the report here in LA. A person was arrested in full kit appearing to be a national guard soldier. https://www.foxla.com/news/armed-man-in-military-apparel-arrested-on-assault-weapon-charges-in-downtown-la

3. Defense officials backtrack on Trump's claim that Gen. Milley is 'in charge' of military response to violent protests

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol

The Chairman is the senior military advisor to the President and SECDEF. As I wrote yesterday:

The CJCS is not in the chain of command by law. https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/163. The President and the Secretary of Defense are in command (or what we used to call the National Command Authority). The Chairman cannot exercise military command over the Joint Chiefs of Staff or any of the armed forces.

10 U.S. Code § 163. Role of Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff

(a)Communications Through Chairman of JCS; Assignment of Duties.-Subject to the limitations in section 152(c) of this title, the President may-

(1) direct that communications between the President or the Secretary of Defense and the commanders of the unified and specified combatant commands be transmitted through the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and

(2) assign duties to the Chairman to assist the President and the Secretary of Defense in performing their command function.

10 U.S. Code § 152 Chairman: appointment; grade and rank (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/152#:)

(c)Grade and Rank.-

The Chairman, while so serving, holds the grade of general or, in the case of an officer of the Navy, admiral and outranks all other officers of the armed forces. However, he may not exercise military command over the Joint Chiefs of Staff or any of the armed forces.

4. New psychology research finds extreme protest actions reduce popular support for social movements

psypost.org · by Eric W. Dolan · May 30, 2020

The referenced study can be downloaded here: https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2020-02398-001.

This is why everyone should read and study the works of Gene Sharp Robert Helvey. I commend all to read Gene Sharp's From Dictatorship to Democracy. https://www.aeinstein.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/FDTD.pdf.

5.  Pentagon says guard did not tear-gas protesters; Downplays role in militarized response

defenseone.com · by KATIE BO WILLIAMS

I thought it was odd. If tear gas had been used, I would have thought we would have noticed the entourage experience some of the residual effects since they walked through the area where the tear gas was allegedly used only a short time after. We should have seen people tearing up or coughing lightly as they felt the residual effects but from the media footage it did not appear anyone experienced anything.

And so it looks like the CJSC and SECDEF walked into a media ambush and were not aware of the photo op.. Not that this is the equivalent of what happened to the Chairman and SECDEF but I had a similar experience in Baslian when we were in the Philippines in 2002 for OEF-P I went to meet the Provincial Governor, Wahab Akbar who was a founding member of the terrorist group the ASG who have been given amnesty rehabilitated and then democratically elected the Governor. As we were meeting in his office, he called an aide and in walked a large group of media with cameras and microphones and he proceeded to hold an impromptu press conference. I will never forget his statement as he was standing next to me telling the press how happy he was to have American Special Forces deployed. He said the people of the Philippines were rescued from the Japanese by the Americans and now they were going to be rescued from the terrorists.  He said it was fitting because both the Japanese and the terrorists were known for cutting off the heads of Filipinos. Needless to say it was not a good look for us, I did not make a statement and fortunately the press stories never got legs.

6. Is it revolution? (the civil unrest in the US)

National Review Online · by Michael Brendan Dougherty · May 31, 2020

If we are going to talk about revolution, I commend these resources to all for study. The Assessing Revolution and Insurgent Strategies (ARIS) project from the US Army Special Operations Command provides the intellectual foundation for understanding revolution and resistance. The numerous studies can be accessed at this link: https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/ARIS.html

7. Guard troops in DC say they want to 'give people the opportunity to express their First Amendment rights'

militarytimes.com · by Howard Altman · June 2, 2020

The troops are on message. But our National Guard troops across the country are being given one of the hardest missions. I have tremendous respect for our citizen soldiers. I just hope our active soldiers are not deployed for domestic operations against civil unrest.

8. Presidents and 'presidents'

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco, opinion contributor · June 2, 2020

I think Secretary Pompeo did the right thing with a strong statement congratulation President Tasi on her re-election. But this article is about the use of titles for national leaders. I think Joe Bosco (who always provides provocative insights) makes an interesting observation about the Washington Post. In a caption of photograph with a number of world leaders the Post identified Xi as "Chinese Leader" and not with a proper title as it did for all the other leaders. Most important, according to Joe, the Post did call him president.

9. Beijing flexes its muscles - And Washington better get ready

realcleardefense.com · by Bradley Bowman and Craig Singleton

From my colleagues Brad Bowman and Craig Singleton. US military supremacy in the Indo Pacific has eroded while Chinese strength has increased. The US and our allies cannot allow the balance of power to further erode.

10. Special operators in Syria are First American Unit to use computerized sights on their rifles

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · June 1, 2020

Perhaps modern warfare will become closer to a computer game. But seriously this is a fascinating capability. I just hope you do not have to reboot during a firefight - it would be terrible to get the blue screen while you are acquiring a target. (okay, please excuse the sarcasm).

Photos at the link.

11. Philippines suspends abrogation of defense pact with US

The Washington Post · by Jim Gomez | AP

Some good news for our alliance structure thought it never should have got to this point. I am sure US Ambassador Sung Kim and his country team did a lot of work to get this reversed as I am sure did many Philippine officials who value the RP-US alliance (the longest standing US alliance).

12. Hard-core agents provocateurs infiltrate US protests

asiatimes.com · by Christina Lin · June 2, 2020

This is a real threat: the infiltrators and agitators (on both sides of the political spectrum) who are hijacking the protests. This is subversion 101.

13. Viruses: Biological versus computer

asiatimes.com · by More by Mark Webb-Johnson · June 3, 2020

Very interesting comparison. We need cyber hygiene to protect us from computer viruses just as we need personal hygiene to protect us from biological viruses. We have to be prepared to fight computer viruses just as we have to be prepared to fight the next coronavirus.

14. The Overmilitarization of American Foreign Policy 

Foreign Affairs · by  Robert M. Gates · June 2, 2020

The military has to be in support until it has to fight a war, but even then, it still has to be in service of the political aim and that is not something that can be decided upon by the military. This should theoretically be why we need civilian control of not only foreign policy but the military as well: "If you concentrate exclusively on victory, while no thought for the after effect, you may be too exhausted to profit by peace, while it is almost certain that the peace will be a bad one, containing the germs of another war." B.H. Liddel-Hart. This quote requires civilian leadership and control.

We need balance and coherency not only among ends, ways, and means (strategy) but also with our instruments of national power. We need to have a holistic application of DIME-A - diplomatic, informational, military, economic AND Alliances. I think we need to consider Alliances as one of our key elements of national power. Our Alliance structure is also more than military. Alliances affect and require support from each of the other instruments.

Regarding Secretary Gates' comments about avoiding mission creep, General Zinni's quote is instructive. "Stay focused on the mission. Line up military tasks with political objectives. Avoid mission creep and allow for mission shifts. A mission shift is a conscious decision, made by political leadership in consultation with the military commander, responding to a changing situation." - General Anthony Zinni

Mission creep is a decidedly pejorative phrase. Mission shift results from challenging assumptions and assessment of changing conditions. But because of "mission creep" we have sometimes paralyzed ourselves and refused to adjust the mission (or to rebalance the ends, ways, and means of strategy) for fear of being charged with mission creep.

15. A (resignation) letter to Defense Secretary Mark Esper 

The Washington Post · by James N. Miller · June 2, 2020

A resignation letter from James N. Miller. He is a former defense official and current member of the Defense Science Board (which I believe is just an advisory position). This is not at the level of a current defense official or a military officer resigning in protest. I do wonder if HR McMaster will write a 21st Century part 2 of Dereliction of Duty to assess the actions of senior leaders (military and civilian) taking principled stands against policies. And this needs examination through all three administrations of the 21st Century from 9-11 to the present. I only recall one 3 star quietly resigning over Iraq and a handful of moderately high level government officials who have resigned since 9-11.

16. 'I wish you the best': US military adviser resigns after Trump's controversial photo op at church

Business Insider · by David Choi

A follow- up to Miller's resignation letter published in the Washington Post.

17. Three strategists walk into a bar

mwi.usma.edu · by Michael Symanski · June 2, 2020

This is an excellent thought piece. I am keeping this one in my files. This should provoke some good discussion in our PME institutions.

18. The Pen is mightier than the Sword? - SOF Need Both

sof.news · by SOF News · June 2, 2020

The entire military needs both as do our civilian government agencies (well they may only have pens and not swords). But we need people to write, to share experiences, to debate and discuss. Small Wars Journal will continue to provide that platform, especially for authentic new voices.

The above PSA aside this article is really about our ability to" lead with influence" (my words) versus kinetic operations (we need both applied in the right order and correct balance for each unique operation and appropriate for existing conditions - to achieve the "integration of effects").  

This is why I like to frame special operations in terms of two "SOF Trinities:" irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare and the comparative advantage of SOF: influence, governance, and support to indigenous forces and populations. 

But we fear leading with influence and information. Recall the words of a PSYOP officer to me at Leavenworth (short course not the long one): It is easier to get permission to put a hellfire missile on the forehead of a terrorist than it is to get permission to put an idea between his ears.

-----------

"Before a war military science seems a real science, like astronomy; but after a war it seems more like astrology."

- Rebecca West

"I don't know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

- Albert Einstein (1879-1955) 

"War is too serious a matter to entrust to military men."

- Georges Clemenceau

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Pentagon accepts S. Korea's proposal to fund labor costs for Korean USFK workers on furlough

2. S. Korea will push ahead with cross-border projects to prepare for post-coronavirus era

3. The conspiracy against ex-president Park Geun-hye

4. Ex-USFK commander worries N. Korea will soon launch ballistic missile submarine

5. Use of medical helicopters to target protesters a 'foolish' violation of norms, experts say

6. FDD | Trump's New China Strategy Must Focus on International Organizations

7. Coronavirus substantially hampers humanitarian efforts in N. Korea: Red Cross official

8. The Pandemic And Korean Foreign Policy In The Event Of The Dissolution Of The U.S.-ROK Alliance

9.  Embattled China Now Picks Up A Fight With South Korea Over Missile Defence System, Here's Why It Is Scared

10. US, South Korea Agree to Fund Furloughed Workers on US Bases

11. Well-connected dollar trader in Chongjin arrested (north Korea)

12. Army chief visits war remains excavation site in DMZ 

13. 5.18 and the Tyranny of Power (South Korea)

14. Memories of American veterans of the Korean War

1. Pentagon accepts S. Korea's proposal to fund labor costs for Korean USFK workers on furlough

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 3, 2020

As I said this is just a band aid. A stop gap solution. It will not stop the bleeding in the alliance. We need a 5 year agreement that is truly fair and equitable.

2. S. Korea will push ahead with cross-border projects to prepare for post-coronavirus era

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 2, 2020

Perhaps now is a good time to review President Moon's "peace strategy." The Moon administration remains remarkably consistent with the strategy. The question is whether this is a realistic policy given the nature of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime.

Moon Jae-in's Policy on the Korean Peninsula

https://www.unikorea.go.kr/eng_unikorea/policylssues/koreanpeninsula/principles/

3. The conspiracy against ex-president Park Geun-hye

asiatimes.com · by Jason Morgan · June 2, 2020

This is a fascinating account. The authors make the point the this has had a devastating impact on trilateral diplomacy. But they conclude with a bombshell accusation.

4. Ex-USFK commander worries N. Korea will soon launch ballistic missile submarine

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 3, 2020

This article is derived from webinar hosted by the Korea Defense Veterans Association held on June 2, 2020. It featured General Walter "Skip" Sharp and Gen Jung, Seung Jo wo served together as the CINC and DCINC of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. The one hour video can be viewed at this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaWsynXSo6Q&feature=youtu.be

The webinar is very useful as the discuss crisis action procedures for the ROK/US CFC and they provide very insightful background on a number of issues from how the command works, the OPCON transition process, the relationship to the UN Command. Any member of the press or public with an interest in the alliance would benefit from watching this.

5. Use of medical helicopters to target protesters a 'foolish' violation of norms, experts say

The Washington Post · by Alex Horton · June 2, 2020

I cannot imagine anyone sanctioning the use of MEDEVAC bird for a demonstration or show of force. (if that is what it is was doing). I wonder if there was a MEDEVAC operation taking place some in the vicinity or if it was simply on station to be ready for one.

There is video at the link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/06/02/helicopter-protest-dc/

6. FDD | Trump's New China Strategy Must Focus on International Organizations

fdd.org · by Richard Goldberg Senior Advisor · June 2, 2020

From my colleague at FDD, Rich Goldberg.  As I have written we must compete on the political warfare battlefield and international institutions are key terrain on that battlefield.

7. Coronavirus substantially hampers humanitarian efforts in N. Korea: Red Cross official

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 3, 2020

Still no confirmation of an outbreak of the coronavirus. Giving north Korea the benefit of the doubt, despite the IRC saying it must remain neutral and therefore cannot comment on the possibility of an outbreak, if they had knowledge of an outbreak, I suspect that information would leak out. So perhaps the regime has done a good job preventing an outbreak through the application of its draconian population and resources control measures.

8. The Pandemic And Korean Foreign Policy In The Event Of The Dissolution Of The U.S.-ROK Alliance

Forbes · by Scott Snyder · June 3, 2020

A warning from Scott Snyder. And a recommendation for South Korea is the alliance dissolves. And, like Scott, I certainly hope it does not. The effects of a dissolved alliance will be catastrophic.

Scott offers an analysis of some of the major friction points of the alliance and then provides some objective recommendations for the ROK should the alliance end.

I would just remind everyone that according to the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty to withdraw from the treaty (and thus the alliance) requires a one year notice. But I wonder if there is mutual agreement would they immediately terminate it. "This Treaty shall remain in force indefinitely. Either Party may terminate it one year after notice has been given to the other Party." https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/kor001.asp

But we should think about this: How long would it take to withdraw all US military forces, equipment, dependents? How much would it cost? And where would we station it?

As a former US senior leader once said at a conference there is one thing we do well. If someone asks the US to withdraw its military the US will do it and do it as fast as possible. South Korea should examine the Philippines situation (though in that example we did not end the RP-US alliance)

9.  Embattled China Now Picks Up A Fight With South Korea Over Missile Defence System, Here's Why It Is Scared

swarajyamag.com · by Swarajya Staff · June 3, 2020

Hmmm... China is scared? That is an interesting perspective. I have some different views on China's renewed attack on the ROK over THAAD.

I think China is exploiting the current US-PRC friction and is using the THAAD issue as an attempt to create problems for the ROK/US alliance and for the US. This is political warfare being conducted by the PRC. What I think China told Moon in 2017 was no additional THAAD deployment (which I interpret to mean additional launchers and batteries. Note this was not a deployment of any additional systems, only a rotation and replacement of missiles that must be done periodically - the old ones must be serviced so they can be rotated again in the future).  

The system is designed to track missiles that are inbound to the ROK. Yes, its radar range does extend into China; however, THAAD is only effective in defending against missiles that will attack the ROK. If China is concerned about this, does China intend to attack the ROK with missiles? THAAD does not attack surface targets and cannot fire into China. Also, China has no standing to deny the ROK and the US the right of self-defense. These are self-defense weapons.  

It is very likely China will conduct economic warfare against the ROK as part of its overall political warfare strategy. The US failed to support the ROK during the original deployment of THAAD when China began its economic warfare campaign. It will try to coerce the ROK to move away from the US and into China's sphere of influence and THAAD will provide them the opportunity to try to succeed at that. China is exploiting multiple conditions (coronavirus, US-PRC trade war and emerging 21st century cold war order, and continuing ROK/US alliance friction due to SMA, OPCON transition, and differing strategies toward North Korea as well as domestic political upheaval in both the ROK and US). China senses opportunities to practice its "three warfares" - psychological warfare, legal warfare, and media or public opinion warfare. Exerting economic pressure on the ROK is one element that will have significant psychological effects on the government and the population. China seeks to bend Korean will toward China.

If China initiates another economic warfare campaign against the ROK, the US, as an alliance partner, needs to help defend against it and it will need to provide economic support to the ROK.

Korea remains the proverbial shrimp among whales. You cannot change geography and it is geography that causes the biggest problem for Korea - it is too close to its security challenges (enemies) and too far from its allies. Security and the economy are inextricably linked. South Korea is going to have to decide in which sphere of influence it wishes to reside. But if Korea chooses its economy over security, it will soon be dominated indirectly and possibly directly by the Chinese Communist Party's authoritarian system. It will also become extremely vulnerable to North Korean subversion, coercion, extortion and use of force that seeks to dominate the entire Korean peninsula under the rule of the Kim family regime. The ROK government and Korean people have to think hard about with whom they are going to align. A false prosperity under communist indirect or direct influence or remaining a free liberal democracy that is secure and that can adjust its economy to be resilient and to defend itself from Chinese economic and political warfare. The ROK must understand and respond to Chinese and North Korean strategies if it wishes to remain a free and prosperous nation.

Lastly, every commander of the ROK/US CFC has said the ROK has already made the choice between the US and China in 1953 when it signed the Mutual Defense Treaty. But we cannot take that for granted. And I am afraid the US does take the alliance for granted which is why we forced THAAD on the ROK (for very good military and defense reasons) but we did not protect it from China's economic warfare. The US takes it for granted by trying to extort more money from the ROK for burden sharing. And I do not think China respects the ROK. It sees it as a target of opportunity to expand its influence and undermine the US.

10. US, South Korea Agree to Fund Furloughed Workers on US Bases

voanews.com · by William Gallo

My comments below.

11. Well-connected dollar trader in Chongjin arrested (North Korea)

dailynk.com · June 3, 2020

An indicator the regime is trying to crack down on foreign currency to control its economy. But what is interesting is this trader allegedly refused to pay the normal bride to prevent his arrest. Did she think her husband's membership in "Department 11" would provide protection from the MSS? I am sure she knew better than that. In the end this reads like a beef between the MSS and this woman.

12. Army chief visits war remains excavation site in DMZ 

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 3, 2020

Again, an illustration of the shared values of the ROK and US. Arrowhead ridge was the site of a bloody and long fighting between UN and South Korean forces and Chinese and North Korean forces as part of the Iron triangle. In the area was the Battle of Heartbreak Ridge, the Battle of White Horse and Pork Chop Hill, among others. The Arrowhead Ridge area was always hard to get to because it straddled the Military Demarcation Line in the DMZ. The excavation operations are the result of the September 19th Pyongyang Declaration and the Comprehensive Military Agreement. These excavations were supposed to be joint, but the north has refused to participate and instead constructed a new building(s) on the North side to observe the work of the South Korean military conducting the excavations.

13. 5.18 and the Tyranny of Power (South Korea)

onekoreanetwork.com · May 22, 2020

This is quite a critique of the 5.18 movement in Korea with some unique criticism of President Kim Young Sam.

14. Memories of American veterans of the Korean War

donga.com · June 2, 2020

This is really an OpEd about trust and it makes critical comments about Korean society. According to the Donga Ilbo editorial board, Korea is moving backward.

-----------

"Before a war military science seems a real science, like astronomy; but after a war it seems more like astrology."

- Rebecca West

"I don't know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

- Albert Einstein (1879-1955) 

"War is too serious a matter to entrust to military men."

- Georges Clemenceau

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Kim is back, but North Korea still isn't stable

2. North Korea denies US hacking accusations

3.  North Korea's police state hints at virus victory

4. N. Korea's main paper highlights leader Kim's love for people

5. North Korea: bombshell evidence shows Kim Jong-un's sister 'will rule hermit state'

6. Kim Jong-un fury: how North Korean leader's 'executed' girlfriend reappeared

7.  Burden-sharing talks are distracting Washington and Seoul from the North Korean threat

8. Donald Trump should switch to cooperation as Kim Jong Un emphasizes confrontation

9. After containing covid-19, South Korea primed for Israeli innovation

10. S. Korea expects to become formal member of expanded G7: Cheong Wa Dae

11. Yoon pressures North Korean defectors to return to North Korea

12. Who Is Park Eunmi? North Korean woman smuggled herself to China in search of better future

1. Kim is back, but North Korea still isn't stable

Foreign Policy · by Duyeon Kim and Leif-Eric Easley · June 1, 2020

We must continue to observe the indicators and discern the relative stability within North Korea, because if it suffers from internal instability the effects could be catastrophic. No one should wish for collapse, but we had better be prepared to deal with it. The authors are correct here: it is internal politics that will drive Kim Jong-Un’s decision making and it is imperative the ROK/US alliance be strong and prepared to respond to what happens next in Pyongyang. And I would add we need to be proactive through our own superior form of political warfare to influence internal decision making.

2. North Korea denies US hacking accusations

Cyberscoop.com · by Jeff Stone · June 1, 2020

Admit nothing, deny everything, and make counteraccusations. North Korea doth protest too much.

3.  North Korea's police state hints at virus victory

Asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 1, 2020

Has it "beaten" the virus or has it just used its extraordinary population and resources control measures and specifically the ability to control information and prevent any knowledge of an outbreak from getting to the outside world?

4. N. Korea's main paper highlights leader Kim's love for people

En.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 2, 2020

The words of all dictators. Somehow I do not think Kim Jong-un is a benevolent dictator. I suppose he expresses his "love" through Songbun, the social classification system that divides the people into 51 classes. Perhaps he does "love" those who demonstrate personal loyalty to him (because that is the only way to survive and "advance" as well as any can advance within that society). Or perhaps he expresses his love through the "rule of threes" - if anyone demonstrates disloyalty to the regime that person and three of his or her generations will be sent to the gulags (or worse). I am just not seeing a "whole lotta love" (apologies to Led Zeppelin) from Kim Jong-un and the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime.

5. North Korea: bombshell evidence shows Kim Jong-un's sister 'will rule hermit state'

Express · by Josh Saunders · June 2, 2020

Spoiler alert: the author thinks it is because she heads up the Propaganda and Agitation Department. That does not sound like bombshell evidence to me, though I suppose that it is the type of headline that might come from Kim Yo Jong's organization.

6. Kim Jong-un fury: how North Korean leader's 'executed' girlfriend reappeared

Express · by Charlie Bradley · June 1, 2020

Typical North Korea. Whenever you hear about the execution or purge of North Koreans, you need to take it with a grain of salt. They could very well be "resurrected" or rehabilitated at some future date.

7. Burden-sharing talks are distracting Washington and Seoul from the North Korean threat

The Washington Post · by Ami Bera and Victor Cha · June 1, 2020

We have to fix this. But I fear our transnational alliance relationships are here to stay and that is not good for our alliance structure and US national power.

But we have to understand that neither the US nor the ROK will be successful in dealing with North Korea unless their actions rest on the foundation of strong ROK/US alliance. And our demands on burden sharing are undermining the alliance. Transaction-based or an alliance built on shared interests, shared values, and shared strategy?

And we can never forget that the North poses an existential threat to the ROK and that it is a US national interest to deter a war on the peninsula. 

8. Donald Trump should switch to cooperation as Kim Jong Un emphasizes confrontation

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · June 1, 2020

Cooperation is code for lifting sanctions. Cooperation is a one-sided with North Korea getting all the benefits while providing no reciprocal actions. And an arms control regime is exactly what Kim Jong-un would like to secure victory for his blackmail diplomacy strategy (provocations and increased tension to gain political and economic concessions). Kim would like arms control negotiations because that would be an admission that the North is a nuclear power (and it enhance his reputation and make him feel he is a co-equal to the US like the USSR was during the Cold War). This would mean his long con, supported by his political warfare with Juche characteristics, will achieve his short term and interim goals of lifting sanctions and keeping his nuclear weapons (while of course his long term goal remains to dominate the peninsula and bring it under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State).

9. After containing covid-19, South Korea primed for Israeli innovation

Algemeiner.com · by Allon Sinai / CTech · June 1, 2020

10. S. Korea expects to become formal member of expanded G7: Cheong Wa Dae

En.yna.co.kr · by Lee Chi-dong · June 2, 2020

I wonder if there is going to be any friction within the G7 about "growing it." There certainly is over the proposal to bring Russia back into it. But will the addition of South Korea and other countries be accepted? Usually, before such announcements are made, there is diplomatic coordination behind the scenes to prepare the environment for the action. Has that happened in this case or are we shooting from the hip?

11. Yoon Pressures North Korean Defectors to Return to North Korea

One Korea Network · June 2, 2020

It is impossible for me to imagine anyone in South Korea who would pressure an escapee to return to the North. This truly saddens me. Yoon Mi-hyang is a real piece of work.

12. Who Is Park Eunmi? North Korean Woman Smuggled Herself to China in Search of Better Future

Ibtimes.sg · by Bhaswati Guha Majumder · June 1, 2020

Another incredible person and story. Video included.

 “To teach is to create a space, not to fill it.”

- Parker Palmer

“What an astonishing thing a book is. It’s a flat object made from a tree with flexible parts on which are imprinted lots of funny dark squiggles. But one glance at it and you’re inside the mind of another person, maybe somebody dead for thousands of years. Across the millennia, an author is speaking clearly and silently inside your head, directly to you. Writing is perhaps the greatest of human inventions, binding together people who never knew each other, citizens of distant epochs. Books break the shackles of time. A book is proof that humans are capable of working magic.”

- Carl Sagan

“History teaches us that wars begin when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap.”

- Ronald Reagan

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore

1. Americans should fight propaganda, like we used to

2. The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitics

3. The coronavirus is raising the likelihood of great-power conflict

4. Estonia already lives online. Why can't the United States?

5. Pompeo signals impending action against ICC for investigating alleged U.S. war crimes

6. Hong Kong security law: China weighs risk US will go for 'nuclear option' and cut Beijing from the dollar payment system

7. Hong Kong police are spraying protesters with blue-dye water cannons to mark them for arrest later

8. How to compete with China without going to war

9. Trump says the top U.S. military officer is 'in charge' as George Floyd protests rock the nation

10. Russia and China target US protests on social media

11. Joint chiefs vision changes military education philosophy

12. Pompeo says U.S. considers welcoming Hong Kong people, entrepreneurs

13. China delayed releasing coronavirus info, frustrating WHO

14. Presidents have leeway to use military for domestic purposes

15. As virus toll preoccupies U.S., rivals test limits of American influence

16. The death of globalisation has been announced many times. But this is a perfect storm

17. Don't bring a knife to a gunfight with China

18. With scenes of police brutality, America's beacon to the world winks out

19. Closing the generational divide on supporting democracy

20. Eli Lilly begins first human tests of an antibody drug against Covid-19

1. Americans should fight propaganda, like we used to

Defenseone.com · by Tara Sonenshine · June 01, 2020

The author was in the previous administration so there is some bias against the current administration. But the key point is we have to compete well in the information space. It is a strategic imperative. Today it takes of whole of society effort to fight propaganda. I know it is cliché to say that, but we are soldiers on the psychological warfare battlefield.

I hate to beat the dead horse, but the fundamental concept for defeat of propaganda is in our National Security Strategy on page 14. All Americans, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents should all embrace these words and internalize them without regard to partisan beliefs.

2. The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitics

Strategy Bridge · by James L. Regens and John S. Beddow · June 1, 2020

This is a long read that provides a good overview of the pandemic up to this point. It asks the tough question of what will be the geopolitical balance post COVID-19.

Note how prescient were the words of the Global Trends 2025. 

3. The coronavirus is raising the likelihood of great-power conflict

Defenseone.com · by Barry Pavel · June 01, 2020

Yes, deterrence is critical at this time. While we can increase military operations, deployments and presence, our deterrence is undermined by the perception of the US being distracted by the coronavirus as well as the current civil unrest. In addition, there is significant friction within our alliance structure. How do our adversaries assess the current US conditions and balance that against our demonstrated military capabilities? I think we need to ponder that if we are going to assess our deterrence.

4. Estonia already lives online. Why can't the United States?

Defenseone.com · by Nina Jankowicz · June 01, 2020

An interesting question. Which leads to three others: can we build the secure infrastructure for the size of our population? Should we do so, given the potential security risks? Can we learn from Estonia?

I think it is interesting that the Internet evolved with convenience as the primary consideration, not security. We have a whole generation that has grown up online. But we did not grow up with security as the primary focus. When my daughter went off to college and she had to use two-factor authentication, she complained to me that it was inconvenient. I explained universities were targets for foreign cyber attacks and they must protect their networks. If we want to go online, we need to invest in "cyber civil defense" with the whole of society taking responsibility, because we can all be conduits for penetration of networks. And we need to instill the good practices of personal cyber hygiene to protect ourselves. Yes, we can develop technology to protect us on many levels. But, in the end the cyber domain is a human endeavor and the human is both the biggest strength and weakness. Maybe if we do that we could then live online like Estonia.

5. Pompeo signals impending action against ICC for investigating alleged U.S. war crimes

Politico · by Quint Forgey · June 01, 2020

What the article does not mention is that ICC is supposed to investigate crimes when a government cannot or will not investigate. The US investigates alleged crimes by its military forces. And the irony is the prosecutor is using the information from actual US investigations already completed to try to develop their case against US personnel. The actions by the ICC prosecutor are political, based on her agenda, and do not seem to follow proper procedure of the ICC governing charter. There are so many crimes out there committed in countries with little to no rule of law that need investigating. But instead the prosecutor seems to be only interested in going after the US. I can only surmise she is doing this for the publicity and fame.

This action by the ICC puts US military and government personnel at risk. If the ICC indicts an American, he or she will be unable to travel to any country that will extradite them for trial at the ICC.

6. Hong Kong security law: China weighs risk US will go for 'nuclear option' and cut Beijing from the dollar payment system

South China Morning Post · by Karen Yeung and Zhou Xin · June 01, 2020

I am not an economist but would this be cutting off our nose to spite out face?  I guess this would be economic warfare on a "nuclear scale."

7. Hong Kong police are spraying protesters with blue-dye water cannons to mark them for arrest later

Insider.com · by Isobel Asher Hamilton · June 01, 2020

I wonder if the Hong Kong citizens will use the "I am Spartacus" technique and cover all citizens with blue dye. We should check with Gene Sharp's From Dictatorship to Democracy to see about non-violent responses to these PRC techniques for population and resources control measures.

8. How to compete with China without going to war

Ozy.com · by John McLaughlin · May 29, 2020

McLaughlin makes some good points, but I think he left out one key point. If we want to successfully compete with China, we should follow Sun Tzu: "Thus, what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy's strategy. Next best is to disrupt his alliances by diplomacy. The next best is to attack his army." We need to expose and attack the CCP strategy and, although it has only one alliance (North Korea). we can certainly apply the concept to China's relationships through its one belt one road concept. If we defeat his strategy and disrupt his relationships, we can win without fighting. We need understand that we are competing through political warfare.

9. Trump says the top U.S. military officer is 'in charge' as George Floyd protests rock the nation

CNBC · by Amanda Macias · June 1, 2020

The CJCS is not in the chain of command by law. The President and the Secretary of Defense are in command (or what we used to call the National Command Authority).

I suppose paragraph (2) can be interpreted that the President can assign duties to the CJCS to be put in charge. But it seems like the law prohibits him being given command per Section 152.

10. Russia and China target US protests on social media

Politico · by Mark Scott · June 1, 2020

We are all vulnerable targets during this period of civil unrest. And Russia and China (and Iran and even North Korea) must be ecstatic over the opportunities presented by radical groups on both sides from ANTIFA to White Supremacist groups.

11. Joint chiefs vision changes military education philosophy

Defense.gov · by Jim Garamone · June 1, 2020

12. Pompeo says U.S. considers welcoming Hong Kong people, entrepreneurs

Reuters· by Humeyra Pamuk and David Brunnstrom · June 1, 2020

13. China delayed releasing coronavirus info, frustrating WHO

AP · by The Associated Press · June 2, 2020

A long read. Can China buy its way out of its negligent actions with a $2 billion contribution to the WHO? And are we ceding influence to China over an important international institution? With China's negligence it should be an opportunity to expose China's strategy and influence and counter it. 

14. Presidents have leeway to use military for domestic purposes

AP · by Eric Tucker and Lolita C. Baldor · June 2, 2020

But probably not with the CJCS in command.

15. As virus toll preoccupies U.S., rivals test limits of American influence

The New York Times · by David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt, and Edward Wong · June 1, 2020

It is not just the coronavirus, but also internal civil unrest, economic upheaval, stepping back from international organization(s), and a weakened alliance structure all provide opportunities to the revisionist and rogue powers to erode US power and influence.

16. The death of globalisation has been announced many times. But this is a perfect storm

The Guardian · by Adam Tooze · June 2, 2020

Of course Mark Twain had some thoughts on premature death. However, this sums up the situation quite succinctly.

17. Don't bring a knife to a gunfight with China

Strategy Bridge · by T.S. Allen · June 2, 2020

Very interesting analysis. It needs to be discussed in detail and the author spends the essay providing important discussion. 

The question is how do our armed forces support the conduct of political warfare? The armed forces play a supporting role, but I think part of what the author is calling for is a political warfare strategy - based on national statecraft - to effectively compete with China short of war.

As an aside, this is one reason why we need to continue Small Wars Journal - to provide a platform for a large number of diverse voices (especially new ones) to provide their contributions to the discussion and debate.

18. With scenes of police brutality, America's beacon to the world winks out

Foreign Policy · by Colum Lynch, Robbie Gramer · June 1, 2020

The knives are coming out for our federal democratic republic. Has the great American experiment failed? I am not ready to accept that and I certainly hope Americans across the country are not.

19. Closing the generational divide on supporting democracy

Bushcenter.org · by Nicole Bibbins Sedaca · May 5, 2020

These are some shocking data points. The question I never see asked is what do people think will replace our federal democratic republic? And do we not still believe in our fundamental values of freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, and human rights? What is the new social contract that people desire?

But I think Dr. Bibbins Sedaca sums it up well here and I would ask us all, are we ready to exercise our civic responsibility and civic duty?

20. Eli Lilly begins first human tests of an antibody drug against Covid-19

STAT · by Matthew Herper · June 1, 2020

Hopefully we will soon hear some good news.

 “To teach is to create a space, not to fill it.”

- Parker Palmer

“What an astonishing thing a book is. It’s a flat object made from a tree with flexible parts on which are imprinted lots of funny dark squiggles. But one glance at it and you’re inside the mind of another person, maybe somebody dead for thousands of years. Across the millennia, an author is speaking clearly and silently inside your head, directly to you. Writing is perhaps the greatest of human inventions, binding together people who never knew each other, citizens of distant epochs. Books break the shackles of time. A book is proof that humans are capable of working magic.”

- Carl Sagan

“History teaches us that wars begin when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap.”

- Ronald Reagan

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. S. Korea again gripped by church-linked cluster infections in greater Seoul area

2. N. Korea to permit smuggling over parts of Sino-NK border

3. Explained: why UN command found North and South Korea in violation of armistice agreement at border

4. N. Korean soldiers face punishment after breaking quarantine

5. North Korea emboldened: how Chinese gangs help and prop up Kim Jong-un's rogue state

6. Kim Jong Un demands money from North Korea's elite

7. Defense chief calls for border troops' watertight posture after N.K.'s DMZ gunfire

8. Remains of S. Koreans killed in Korean War to return home from Hawaii this month

9. N.Korea's Propaganda Machine Embraces Social Media

10. COVID-19: S. Korea's Celltrion aims to start in-human drug trial in July

11. N. Korea's state broadcaster reports on George Floyd's death

12. Surprise transport onto THAAD base sparks suspicions over upgrade or additional deployment

13. S. Korea to revise law on inter-Korean exchanges to allow N.K. firms to do business in South

14. Trump's S. Korea invitation to G7 summit

15. 40 years after Gwangju bloodbath, discussing North Korea's role is taboo in once-free South

1. S. Korea again gripped by church-linked cluster infections in greater Seoul area

En.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · June 1, 2020

South Korea is a microcosm for the world. We can see what happens when certain actions are taken or not taken and certain procedures are implemented or not implemented. I hope we can learn lessons from South Korea even if in some ways it is an apples and oranges comparison between South Korea and the US (or maybe it is a little closer than that - Macintosh apples versus Delicious apples). South Korea has shown the ability to "snap back" to the procedures necessary to halt these outbreaks.

2. N. Korea to permit smuggling over parts of Sino-NK border

Dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · June 1, 2020

A North Korean non sequitur? If "smuggling" is permitted, how can it called smuggling? But I guess this is Kim Yo Jong's doing and another way to allow the people to raise money to buy the bonds to rid the economy of foreign currency. The irony of this is that it takes foreign currency to conduct smuggling operations. They want to make foreign currency illegal, but you have to buy the license for "smuggling" in foreign currency. Only in North Korea. I look forward to read the economic analysis by the economists who are experts in the North Korean economy - all four of them.

3. Explained: why UN command found North and South Korea in violation of armistice agreement at border

Indianexpress.com · by Neha Banka, edited by Explained Desk · May 31, 2020

According to reports in the South Korean press, the firing by the North did not appear intentional. Putting four 14.5mm rounds into the South Korean guard post seems like well-aimed deliberate fire. Perhaps the mistake was the order to fire, but I do not think four rounds hitting an obvious target can be considered a negligent discharge. 

The article does not really explain why the UN Military Armistice Commission (which is headed by a South Korean two star general) found South Korea in violation. I suppose it is because they must have ruled since South Korea did not return fire for some 30 minutes (due to a weapons malfunction) it was not consider in self defense. But, as noted, the South Korean military was not happy with the finding.

Do not be distracted by the statement that Syngman Rhee did not sign the Armistice in 1953. Technically, the US did not sign it either. The armistice was signed by the military representatives of each side, first by LTG William Henry Harrison as the representative of the UN Command (which included South Korean forces and 16 "sending states") and General Nam Il from the North Korean People's Army (NKPA). It was later signed by the Commander of the Chinese People's Volunteers and by Kim Il-Sung (not as head of state by as commander of the NKPA). The agreement did only four things. It called for a cessation of hostilities, it established the DMZ, it called on both sides not to attack the other, and it returned prisoners (which was arguably one of the most difficult negotiating points). The fact that Syngman Rhee did not sign the armistice has no real bearing on whether there will be a peace treaty. And the peace treaty should be between North and South Korea. UN Security Council Resolution 82 designated North Korea as the aggressor and called on nations to come to the aid of the South to protect its freedom. The US intervened under the authority of the UN and did not declare war on the North. Of course a peace treaty between North and South would be difficult because both country's constitutions claim sovereignty over the entire peninsula and all Koreans and neither recognizes the other. So signing a peace treaty would mean both would have to change their constitutions. Lastly the Armistice did one more important thing. In paragraph 60, it called for all parties to come together within 90 days of the signing of the Armistice to solve the "Korea question," which is the unnatural division of the peninsula. This is because the Armistice is a military agreement among military commanders and forces and there needs to be a political settlement, which must be negotiated and concluded by political leaders. There have been a number of attempts in particular by the North and South in 1991-1992 in which they signed two agreements of denuclearization and on reconciliation. But the North did not live up to either agreement, which is one indication of the regime's true intent - to dominate the peninsula under its rule.

4. N. Korean soldiers face punishment after breaking quarantine

Dailynk.com · June 1, 2020

So what is going on in North Korea? Is there a coronavirus outbreak? Did they prevent it? Have they contained it? Are they doing a good job containing the information about an outbreak? Or is an article like this an indication that they are having an outbreak or still fear one? Or are they using the coronavirus as an excuse to continue to impose draconian population and resources control measures? And then there is the question of stability within the North Korean Peoples Army. A coronavirus outbreak could devastate the military. What will that do to stability of a regime that is dependent on the coherency and support of the military? More questions than answers. We must be vigilant. 

5. North Korea emboldened: how Chinese gangs help and prop up Kim Jong-un's rogue state

Express · by Josh Saunders · May 31, 2020

This is new to me.  I am going to have to do some more research on Chinese gangs helping keep KJU in power.

6. Kim Jong Un demands money from North Korea's elite

Financial Times · by Edward White · May 31, 2020

We should be careful here. The article is talking about the donju or consumer class (or moneyed class), not the core elite who are members of the Kim family regime. For background here is a useful article: A consumer class wields new power in North Korea.

The regime is using the new bond scheme led by Kim Yo Jong to extract foreign currency from the donju class (and all Koreans). The catch 22 is without foreign currency they cannot "smuggle" goods and the nascent market economy (some 400+ markets) will not be able to thrive let alone survive. This is just another example of the regime not knowing how to operate an economy, yet many Koreans in the North know how a market economy does work.  

The buried lead in this article is from Daniel Wertz, who assesses the regime is using the coronavirus crisis as an excuse to tighten control of foreign trade and currency. The operative word being "control." The regime is trying to exert great control to prevent instability.

7. Defense chief calls for border troops' watertight posture after N.K.'s DMZ gunfire

En.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 1, 2020

Sometimes things don't translate perfectly. I am sure he did not mean "watertight" in the literal sense. I am sure he said something about maintaining the highest state of readiness. But note the comments about projects in support of the "peace initiatives," the majority of which take place in the vicinity of the DMZ.

8. Remains of S. Koreans killed in Korean War to return home from Hawaii this month

En.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · June 1, 2020

One of our shared values between the ROK and the US (along with liberty and individual freedom, liberal democracy, free market economy, and human rights). We honor our missing and dead and we do not stop the search for them.

9. N.Korea's Propaganda Machine Embraces Social Media

English.chosun.com · by Roh Suk-jo · June 1, 2020

Yes, North Korea is evolving and modernizing and realizing it must embrace modern technology in order to better control it. But for psychological operations professionals, this should be viewed as an opportunity for influence. We have to be able to penetrate and exploit the North's "intranet." And as Koreans in the North are used to social media and modern communication, they will be better prepared for unification.

10. COVID-19: S. Korea's Celltrion aims to start in-human drug trial in July

Gulfnews.com · by Reuters

I hope they can be successful. And soon!

11. N. Korea's state broadcaster reports on George Floyd's death

En.yna.co.kr · by 오석민· May 30, 2020

North Korea's propaganda about US civil unrest is not yet as aggressive as the Chinese propaganda, but I am sure we will see it increase.

12. Surprise transport onto THAAD base sparks suspicions over upgrade or additional deployment

En.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · June 1, 2020

This just pains me to read. It is really an indication of the precarious position of our alliance and both sides have caused problems regarding the THAAD deployment (stationing). The important point about this and the reason for the "surprise transport" is because the Korean government continues to allow Koran citizens to prevent normal logistical operations to occur to support the soldiers and units at this location. They are protesting THAAD (which is their right and should be allowed). But would should not be allowed are their actions that hinder the effective defense of the ROK from missile attack. And the soldiers at this location are living in relatively austere conditions that should be unacceptable to the Korean government as the host nation.

13. S. Korea to revise law on inter-Korean exchanges to allow N.K. firms to do business in South

En.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 1, 2020

I wonder how many businesses from the North would actually be allowed by the North to do business in the South.  And what if North Korean businesses that are under sanction or are known to use unsafe labor practices (or slave labor) do business in the South? I think this is probably more symbolic than anything, because I doubt the North will allow companies to do business in the South.

14. Trump's S. Korea invitation to G7 summit

Donga.com · June 1, 2020

This really illustrates the tightrope South Korea is walking. Korea is, as the proverb says, a shrimp among whales.

15. 40 years after Gwangju bloodbath, discussing North Korea's role is taboo in once-free South

Worldtribune.com · by WorldTribune Staff · May 29, 2020

This makes me sad. South Korea is a liberal democracy and I know the Korean people value freedom of expression, speech, press, assembly and religion. But to truly honor the democracy movement, all information should be allowed to be published and discussed, even if it goes against the political narrative and beliefs of the ruling party and current administration. A true liberal democracy will not prevent free speech and free press.

 “My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.”

- Senator Carl Schurz (1829-1906)

“Too often we… enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

- John F. Kennedy

“No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform patter of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance.”

- Alan Bullock, British historian

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. 'Beautiful sight' extends from HK to US: Global Times editorial

2. It's time to listen to the doomsday planners

3. China's growing belligerence is only hurting itself

4. China calls Trump's bluff

5.  Why are Russian mercenaries fleeing Libya?

6.  New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

7. How John Brennan and Mike Pompeo left the U.S. blind to Saudi problems

8.  U.S.-China disputes growing harder to solve

9.  Photographer catches formation of C-130 transports flying through a California canyon

10. China using tactical situation on ground to its advantage: Mike Pompeo

11. Decode the concept of 'tianxia' to understand China's actions

12. Why Taiwan needs nuclear weapons

13. Trump, lacking clear authority, says U.S. will declare Antifa a terrorist group

14. 'Mr President, don't go hide': China goads US over George Floyd protests

15. Officials see extremist groups, disinformation in protests

16. Win without fighting

17. Defense spending post-coronavirus: how to walk and chew gum at the same time

18. Are we ready for the 'Burn-In' and the real robotic revolution? 

19. In his fight to change the Corps, America's top Marine takes friendly fire

20. Special Operations Command wants to put all mission data in a single pane of glass

21. President Trump is right on Afghanistan

1. 'Beautiful sight' extends from HK to US: Global Times editorial

The Global Times · Editorial · May 31, 2020

Here is a message from the Chinese Communist Party. We should think how we should respond. 

2. It's time to listen to the doomsday planners

DefenseOne.com · Mark Ambinder · May 31, 2020

To rehash Cohen and Gooch and their book, Military Misfortune, all (military) failures are result of three things: failure to learn, failure to adapt, and failure to anticipate.  

But how is our continuity of government planning? No one likes to talk about the worst case planning. 

In 1995-1996 when I was a student at SAMS, one of the planning exercises we did was for a domestic emergency, an earthquake, based on simulating the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-12 in the Midwestern United States. I think the military has thought more broadly than Mr. Pfeiffer has experienced.

But planning is one thing. Training and exercises is another. And getting the right people to participate in training and exercise is difficult at best. I believe one of the reasons why South Korea has done a good job with the coronavirus crisis was because the government ran a table-top exercise for a pandemic in December. Officials had worked through the problem in December and were ready to employ their training in January. As my football coach used to tell us: luck is when opportunity meets preparation. The South Koreans certainly had good luck.

3. China’s growing belligerence is only hurting itself

NewStatesman · by Jeremy Cliffe · May 31, 2020

We need to be careful when things seem too good to be true. It would be nice for this to come to fruition. But we should not become overconfident based on such statements.

4. China calls Trump’s bluff

Bloomberg · by Andrew Browne · May 31, 2020

I think it is a little more than calling a bluff.

5. Why are Russian mercenaries fleeing Libya?

defensemaven.io · by Peter Sucia, The National Interest · May 31, 2020

The title question is really not answered. I suppose the even shorter version is that they’re getting their butts kicked. 

6. New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

Reuters · by 3 Min Read · May 31, 2020

We are going to get our hopes up with reports like these.

7. How John Brennan and Mike Pompeo left the U.S. blind to Saudi problems

Politico · by Douglas London · May 31, 2020

A long read. I know very little about Saudi Arabia so it is difficult for me to assess this article. But it is a fascinating read to me.

8. U.S.-China disputes growing harder to solve

The Wall Street Journal · by James T. Areddy and Chao Deng · May 31, 2020

We may be in for a long rough ride. I think the CCP will be taking advantage of every challenge to the US. China is likely to become even more aggressive and adventurous as the internal unrest across the US continues.

9. Photographer catches formation of C-130 transports flying through a California canyon

thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · May 31, 2020

Fascinating photos. The C-130 is a great aircraft. Although I have jumped out of many, the coolest thing I have ever done is ride in the cockpit of an MC-130 of the 1st SOS as we flew through low level the mountains of Luzon flying from the Philippines back to Okinawa. It was an incredible ride, wearing NVGs and thinking we were going to fly into a mountaintop. It was lot different than riding in the back waiting to jump!

10. China using tactical situation on ground to its advantage: Mike Pompeo

ndtv.com · by Press Trust of India · June 01, 2020

11. Decode the concept of “tianxia” to understand China’s actions

Livemint · by Sandipan Deb · May 31, 2020

I was unfamiliar with the word tianxia but I understand the concept. But as a China hand has emphasized to me Chinese culture is more important than communism. Even if the CCP was not in power China would still be acting in a similar fashion.

12. Why Taiwan needs nuclear weapons

The National Interest · by Michael Rubin · May 31, 2020

It is hard for me to believe that we could advocate for much less allow a friend partner or ally to develop nuclear weapons.

13. Trump, lacking clear authority, says U.S. will declare Antifa a terrorist group

The New York Times · by Maggie Haberman · May 31, 2020

A terrorism scholar posted this important comment. (1) Only the SecState can designate a terrorist organization. And, then it has to be foreign, not domestic (2) Antifa is a dubious candidate for that distinction anyway (3) It is not an organization--& has no identifiable leader, C2 structure or finances to target (4) In recent days, both far right AND far left extremists have called for unrest & disorder.

I heard from a friend who attended the protests in an unnamed city and there were members of the Proud Boys agitating among the protestors.

14. ‘Mr. President, don’t go hide’: China goads US over George Floyd protests

The Guardian · by Helen Davidson · June 1, 2020

Chinese propaganda is making a direct attack on the President.

15. Officials see extremists groups, disinformation in protests

AP · by Colleen Long, Zeke Miller and Michael Balsamo · June 1, 2020

This article mentions some of the various groups that are suspected of contributing agitators to turn peaceful protests in riots. These groups are from both sides of the political spectrum.

16. Win without fighting

usni.org · by Hunter Stires · June 1, 2020

A maritime insurgency. I have wondered if China is not giving us the threats we want to prepare for (e.g., A2AD and major high end warfare) while it has no intention of fighting us conventionally.

17. Defense spending post-coronavirus: how to walk and chew gum at the same time

The Hill · by John C. Hulsman, opinion contributor · May 31, 2020

The author makes two points - the organizing principle should be around China's actions (and in my opinion an understanding of its strategy that has been exposed by the coronavirus crisis) and second is the importance of allies.

18. Are we ready for the ‘Burn-In’ and the real robotic revolution?

realcleardefense.com · by Michael D. Brasseur and Sean Trevethan · May 30, 2020

Singer's and Cole's new book is going on my "to read pile." The science fiction books of our youth are coming to fruition as mainstream novels and soon may be a reality. I recall a quote that said something like what the mind can perceive people can achieve. Science fiction can become reality.

19. In his fight to change the Corps, America’s top Marine takes friendly fire

Defense News · by David Larter · May 29, 2020

I hope the Commandant is thinking about Nietzsche as he tries to radically reform the Marine Corps amid the criticism. Hopefully the criticism and debate will sharpen his steel sword of reform.

20. Special Operations Command want to put all mission data in a single pane of glass

c4isrnet.com · by Nathan Strout · May 31, 2020

This made me chuckle. Acid tape? I think the author meant acetate, but I fear most of our young people have little experience with paper maps, grease pencils, and acetate.  

I wonder if anyone is looking at how this capability will support unconventional warfare, foreign internal defense, psychological operations, and civil affairs operations.

21. President Trump is right on Afghanistan

The National Interest · by William Ruger · May 28, 2020

Some might argue the US accomplished what it need to do when it conducted a punitive expedition in the fall of 2001 and early 2002.

“My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.”

- Senator Carl Schurz (1829-1906)

“Too often we… enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

- John F. Kennedy

“No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform patter of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance.”

- Alan Bullock, British historian