Small Wars Journal

El Centro

Knowing Where and How Criminal Organizations Operate Using Web Content

Very significant work with SWJ El Centro counter non-state OPFOR (opposing force) implications.  Presented at the 21st ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM 2012) October 29 to November 2, 2012 in Maui, Hawaii. The MOGO (Making Order using Google as an Oracle) discussed in this paper is highly cost effective and provides very significant OSINT (open source intelligence) analytical capabilities via a web crawler approach. See the trafficker distribution figures, politician-municipality significant relations, and cartel migration patterns for applications. Also note the acknowledgement section re institutions supporting this project.  

Knowing Where and How Criminal Organizations Operate Using Web Content

Michele Coscia and Viridiana Rios

KddLab - ISTI CNR/ Department of Government - Harvard University

We develop a framework that uses Web content to obtain quantitative information about a phenomenon that would otherwise require the operation of large scale, expensive intelligence exercises. Exploiting indexed reliable sources such as online newspapers and blogs, we use unambiguous query terms to characterize a complex evolving phenomena and solve a security policy problem: identifying the areas of operation and modus operandi of criminal organizations, in particular, Mexican drug trafficking organizations over the last two decades. We validate our methodology by comparing information that is known with certainty with the one we extracted using our framework. We show that our framework is able to use information available on the web to efficiently extract implicit knowledge about criminal organizations. In the scenario of Mexican drug trafficking, our findings provide evidence that criminal organizations are more strategic and operate in more differentiated ways than current academic literature thought.

http://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/ptr/files/cosciarios.pdf

Peter J. Munson Tue, 02/26/2013 - 9:30am

Sniper Executes a Police Chief of Nuevo Leon with a .50 Caliber Rifle (Translation)

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 8:30am

 

This significant incident was brought to my attention by the reporter Chivis with Borderland Beat. He also provided the translations. This may very well be the first targeted assassination of a Mexican public safety official by a sniper utilizing a .50 cal rifle (possibly a Barrett but this is speculation). The standoff range was reported to be 60 meters which is about 66 yards away. This is the distance where a tripod (e.g. tripié del fusil—this is likely in error as a bipod would typically be utilized— but it was left behind so the stabilization device is in question) was found abandoned along with a shell casing—which possibly suggests a lower level of training and/or the immediate need to escape and evade pursuers. The sniper may have been in a prone firing position as the items were reported found in vacant lot near the Commander’s home. The target was hit in the back with the lot providing a clear line of site to the parking and/or door of the residence. Of interest is that Chivis had interviewed me about Mexican cartel weaponry employment patterns in December 2012. The use of 50 cal. sniper rifles was briefly discussed in the interview. See http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2012/12/the-changing-mexican-drug-war-brings_23.html.

Francotirador ejecuta con fusil calibre .50 a mando policiaco de Nuevo León

LA REDACCIÓN

19 DE FEBRERO DE 2013 

NARCOTRÁFICO

MONTERREY, N.L. (apro).- El comandante de la Agencia Estatal de Investigaciones, Gustavo Gerardo Garza Saucedo, fue ejecutado esta madrugada por un francotirador que utilizó un fusil de bala calibre .50 para dispararle cuando llegaba a su casa en Apodaca, 20 kilómetros al nororiente de la capital, informó hoy la Procuraduría de Nuevo León.

Translation: MONTERREY, N.L. (apro).- The commander of the State Investigation Agency, Gustavo Gerardo Garza Saucedo, was executed this early morning by a sniper using a .50 caliber rifle  to shoot him when he arrived  home in Apodaca, 20 kilometers northwest of the capital, reported today by the Prosecutor of Nuevo Leon.

For the Spanish article see http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=334073

Peña Nieto’s Piñata: The Promise and Pitfalls of Mexico’s New Security Policy Against Organized Crime

Sat, 02/23/2013 - 7:25am

Peña Nieto’s Piñata: The Promise and Pitfalls of Mexico’s New Security Policy Against Organized Crime

Vanda Felbab-Brown

The Brookings Institution

February 2013

Mexico’s new president, Enrique Peña Nieto, has a tough year ahead of him. After six years of extraordinarily high homicide levels and gruesome brutality in Mexico, he has promised to prioritize social and economic issues and to refocus Mexico’s security policy on reducing violence. During its first months in office, his administration has eschewed talking about drug-related deaths or arrests. The Mexican public is exhausted by the bewildering intensity and violence of crime as well as by the state’s blunt assault on the drug trafficking groups. It expects the new president to deliver greater public safety, including from abuses committed by the Mexican military, which Mexico’s previous president, Felipe Calderón, deployed to the streets to tackle the drug cartels.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/02/mexico-new-security-policy-felbabbrown

Mexican Cartel Tactical Note # 17

Sun, 02/17/2013 - 4:02pm

Note—the information and pictures contained in this tactical analysis have been pieced together from OSINT (open source intelligence)/news reports published between March 2009 and January 2012. They represent initial I&W trending pertaining to small caliber mortar deployment by the cartels in Mexico and Central America. 

Key Information: “Mexico deploys an additional 5,000 troops to Juarez to fight drug cartels.” 2 March 2009. Militaryphotos.net. [1]:

In other news, Army troops captured a man who was guarding a weapons cache in rural Sinaloa (Northwestern Mexico).

Photograph No. 1 & 2   (http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?152629-Mexico-deploys-an-additional-5-000-troops-to-Juarez-to-fight-drug-cartels)

Photographic Analysis: Photographs No. 1 and 2 show an improvised launcher (framework) in the foreground. Leaning against the fabricated launcher structure are three M-203 type 40mm grenade launchers. This arrangement appears to have been tailored after a “salvo” type launcher that would fall into the class of Infantry Light Support Weapons.  Infantry level salvo launchers in this class are generally capable of launching two or more grenades, or light mortar rounds either individually or all at once.

This captured device has been fabricated from square steel tubing with welded joints. The construction of it also appears to be unfinished. The fact that all of the individual elevated (launcher) attachment rails appear to be welded at a fixed angle indicate two possibilities.  This may be a hastily constructed platform to test the concept, or there is an additional component for its base that is not present, or has not yet been fabricated.  The reader will note the short section of pipe that has been welded on one side of the lower framework (Photograph No. 2).  This may be present as part of a vehicle mount.  If this is a preliminary test platform, then it’s reasonable to assume that the end result will be collapsible launch rails.  This will make the whole system (with its present frame size) low profile and backpackable.  

Salvo launchers have a wide variety of uses in forward areas or areas that are heavily patrolled.  They can be used in both offensive and defensive situations.  Due their low profile, they are easily camouflaged and many can be fired remotely via wire command.

Improvised launchers, as seen in the photographs, are quite uncommon, but could be quite effective in certain situations if configured correctly and the gunner is in possession of accurate empirical data for range vs. elevation.

This device may be indicative of a new interest and trend on the part of the cartels to gain increased tactical capability in the use of projected munitions. 

Key Information: “Nicaragua Seizes Guns from Mexican Drug Cartel.” Latin American Herald Tribune. 15 November 2009 [2]:

 

MANAGUA – An arsenal of military weaponry seized over the weekend in the province of Matagalpa belonged to a cell of Mexico’s Sinaloa drug cartel, Nicaraguan authorities said Monday.

The National Police said Monday in a communique that the arsenal – including 58 assault rifles, two mortars, 10 grenades, 30 sticks of TNT and 19,236 rounds of ammunition – “were being transported by members of the Sinaloa cartel” in a pickup truck with Nicaraguan plates.

The shipment of arms, ammo and explosives was confiscated on Sunday in a joint operation involving the police and the army, the statement said.

The arsenal was found in the truck but the suspected members of the cartel managed to flee after engaging police in a shootout. Police pursued them but they were able to escape.

The National Police announced that several houses in different parts of Managua are being raided because they are suspected of being arms warehouses.

The police added that they are looking for Mexican Roberto Bedolla Corona, who is considered the head of the group that transported the weapons and supposedly has been living in a rented house in Managua for the past month. EFE

 

Key Information: United States Department of State, Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, International Narcotics Control Strategy Report: Volume I, Drug and Chemical Control. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of State: March 2010, 432:

The cross-border flow of money and guns into Mexico from the United States has enabled well-armed and well-funded cartels to engage in violent activities. They employ advanced military tactics and utilize sophisticated weaponry such as sniper rifles, grenades, rocket-propelled grenades and even mortars in attacks on security personnel. DTOs [Drug Trafficking Organizations] have openly challenged the GOM [Government of Mexico] through conflict and intimidation and have fought amongst themselves to control drug distribution routes.

Key Information: Gerardo, “Arsenal seized in Nadadores, Coahuila.” Borderland Beat. 2 June 2011. [3]:

The Mexican Army reported the discovery and seizure of an imposing arsenal in a co-op farm, Ejido Sardinas, located in the municipality of Nadadores, Coahuila.

The announcement was made by Brigadier General Dagoberto Espinoza Rodriguez, commander of the 6th military zone and Major General Noe Sandoval, commander of the 4th military region headquartered in Monterrey.

The Generals reported that the weapons consisted of Russian, Chinese, Czech and U.S. weapons that had recently been wrapped in plastic and buried in a section of the farm. The owner of the plot is unknown and no suspects were detained in the operation.

In total, 154 rifles (assault weapons, rifles, shotguns and machine guns), 7 handguns, 1 rocket launcher (RPG) and 2 rockets, 4 sixty mm mortar rounds, 2 crossbows, 10 dismantled weapons grenades, 4,629 magazines, 62,039 rounds of ammunition, 435 tactical vests with 4,735 accessories including holsters, ammunition pouches and belts, 23 camouflage uniforms and 31 radio chargers [were found].

Photographic No. 3. Containing Four Mortar Rounds

(http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2011/06/arsenal-seized-in-nadadores-coahuila.html)

Photographic Analysis: The following identification and analysis concerns the four mortar rounds visible on the foreground of the tarp containing seized cartel weapons found in Photograph No. 3.  These mortar rounds are the 60mm HE, Model “N” produced by the Esparanza y Cia in Spain.  They have a maximum range of 1,975 meters.  The exact age of these rounds, though not that old, cannot be easily determined as the Model “N” has continued to be in production for a number of years where it has remained virtually unchanged. The rounds shown appear to have had frequent handling in transit.

These rounds are fuzed with Model 53 Impact Fuzes that are likely to have been supplied as standard from the factory.  This type of fuze arms the round at 40-meters from the muzzle, with the last safety going off once the round passes zenith in the trajectory. This fuze is also produced by the same company in Bizkaia, Spain. 

All of the rounds in the photograph are intact with their fuze safety pins properly in place.  The reader will also note that each of the four mortar rounds have the wafer propellant charges in place on the tail section.  The range of these rounds can be tactically controlled by the removal of one or two of these propellant wafers.

The cartels may have come into possession of these rounds through any number of means.  There is, however, a high likelihood that they were hijacked from a scheduled shipment of arms destined for the Mexican government.

The mere presence of these rounds in this setting is a clear indicator that the cartels are continuing to acquire higher echelon infantry weapons in their inventories. For the purposes of the cartels, mortar rounds also have a dual use as all of the components excluding the tail sections can be used in the construction of IEDs.

Key Information: The Unstoppable Los Zetas. 14 January 2012.

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/mexico/articles/20120124.aspx:

 White Gun was directed at the Sinaloa cartel senior leaders. Officials indicated that up to nine leaders were targeted by the sting operation. The Sinaloa cartel was operating several training camps for its gunmen and wanted military-grade weapons, to include .50 caliber heavy machineguns, medium mortars, and grenade launchers. The M2HB .50 caliber heavy machinegun is capable of destroying light armored vehicles of the type used by Mexican federal police. It is also effective against aircraft, particularly helicopters.

Who: Primarily the Sinaloa cartel was mentioned in these news reports. The Nadadores, Coahuila cache suggests a possible Zetas stockpile. The Zetas have been referenced in some earlier works as having mortars—amount unknown—in their inventory.    

What: 40mm grenades utilized as improvised mortars, small caliber (60mm) mortars, and mortar rounds utilized as IEDs (potentials).

When: From OSINT/news reports spanning March 2009 to January 2012.

Where: In a rural area of the state of Sinaloa, Mexico (2009), in the province of Matagalpa, Nicaragua (2009), and in Nadadores, Coahuila, Mexico (2011).

Why: The Sinaloa and the Zetas cartels are seeking the tactical engagement capability of engaging in indirect and high arching fires.

Tactical Significance: Standoff, harassing, and infantry support functions. Indirect and high arching fires can defeat Mexican and Central American police and military personnel deployed in open topped sand-bagged emplacements guarding police stations, barracks, other critical facilities, and road junctions. Terrorist potentials to lob mortar rounds into crowded gatherings also exist, as does the employment of mortar rounds as IEDs for ambushes, and to boost the lethality of car bombs utilized in an anti-personnel role.  

Reference(s):

1. http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?152629-Mexico-deploys-an-additional-5-000-troops-to-Juarez-to-fight-drug-cartels.

2. http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=23558&ArticleId=347478.

3. The original source of this report is El Universal. 1 Junio 2011.

http://www.vanguardia.com.mx/incautanpesadoarsenalennadadorescoahuila-736527.html. The Borderland Beat url is http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2011/06/arsenal-seized-in-nadadores-coahuila.html.

Significance: Indications & Warnings (I&W), IED Potentials, Cartel Weaponry, Standoff Weaponry.

Security Assemblages and Spaces of Exception: The Production of (Para-) Militarized Spaces in the U.S. War on Drugs

Sun, 02/10/2013 - 3:30am
The below publication is tied into a radical manifesto and ideology; "The present period represents an era of state capitalist offensives against the working classes and oppressed globally." The writings of SWJ El Centro Fellows John Sullivan, Paul Kan, and I are mentioned in this work. It makes for an interesting read from that of an anti-statist and anti-capitalist perspective. 
 
Markus Kienscherf
Journal of Radical Criminology
No. 1 (2012)
 
In this essay I will take a closer look at how the war on drugs has para-militarized space. I wish to briefly discuss three interrelated facets. Firstly, I will highlight how the war on drugs has been framed by the ambiguous logic of security, above all the blurring of the boundaries between policing and war-fighting. 
 
Read it all here.
 
 

Santa Muerte: Inspired and Ritualistic Killings (Part 1 of 3)

Wed, 02/06/2013 - 5:50pm

Santa Muerte: Inspired and Ritualistic Killings (Part 1 of 3).

FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin

5 February 2013

By Dr. Robert Bunker

Bloodbaptized—in a shroud of human skin;

Raise your wings—as we celebrate the dead;

Sacrifice—in the honour of your wealth;

Reward us now—in triumph we behead.

The narcotics wars in Mexico have increased in scope and intensity beginning with President Felipe Caldéron’s December 2006 de facto declaration of war against the cartels and gangs. The deployment of Mexican military forces in counterorganized crime and stability and support roles directly responded to the loss of the country’s control within many regions—identified as areas of impunity—of the country. Since this conflict began, over 45,000 people have died in the fighting, and the areas of impunity have grown to include wide swaths of territory constituting hundreds of locales now under control of the cartels. The criminal insurgencies waged by the cartels and gangs, centered on a strategy of securing nongovernmental interference with their illicit narcotics and other criminal economic activities, have received much attention and debate. Far less has focused on some of the darker spiritualistic parts of the drug wars.

Patron Saints of the Mexican Drug Underworld Training Course

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 8:30am

Preface: This is an unpublished archival document provided for the benefit of SWJ El Centro readers. It discusses spiritual awareness training for U.S. law enforcement pertaining to the Mexican cartels and gangs. A Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) officer who attended this training in the City of Industry was able to clear a murder case based on information he received during the training. U.S. Marshal Almonte, since May 2011, has testified in Federal Court four times regarding the use of these “patron saints” by Narco traffickers. While the Marshal is now reducing the amount of training sessions provided, due to the increase in requests from Assistant United States Attorneys to testify in Federal Drug cases, he would like to emphasize his availability to U.S. law enforcement officers if they have any questions pertaining to these “patron saints” or the artifacts recovered which are associated with them.

The National Latino Peace Officers Association (NLPOA), North Los Angeles County Chapter, in cooperation with the California Narcotic Officers’ Association (CNOA), the Los Angeles City Attorney’s Office, the United States Marshals Service, and additional law enforcement agencies sponsored a major training course on 17 May 2011 in Industry Hills, California. This day-long course was conducted by Robert Almonte, United States Marshal, Western District of Texas, and focused on the topic of the Patron Saints of the Mexican Drug Underworld. Over 500 law enforcement officers from Southern and Northern California, Nevada, Arizona, and Hawaii attended the course that was preceded by a color guard, the singing of the national anthem, and a police chaplain’s blessing. Added bonuses to the training were the attendance of actor Erik Estrada who is also a reserve police officer and an NLPOA member along with strong corporate sponsorship by local businesses supportive of law enforcement. 

This restricted law enforcement training course contains extremely graphic and accurate material that pertains to the brutality inflicted by the Mexican cartels against each other, to those that oppose them, and even on innocent bystanders. The training consists of a lecture that utilizes a slide show of images and text, incident videos and news reports, and crime scene photos, along with a large table display exhibiting paraphernalia such as statues, candles, prayer cards, and other iconitry. The course includes an overview to the drug wars taking place in Mexico, an introduction to common cartel tactics, a discussion of cartel forms of violence, and an in depth analysis of the “saints” and spirits that drug traffickers utilize—via prayer and petition— to protect themselves from U.S. law enforcement. These spiritual entities include San Simon, Jesus Malverde, Juan Soldado, Santa Muerte, and many others not normally discussed.

This unique course is ideal for patrol officers, law enforcement personnel assigned to highway and border check points, detectives, intelligence analysts, and crime scene investigators. The course is both professional and practical in nature, has a very strong officer safety component running though it, and fully maintains the attention of the audience. It is definitely delivered in a ‘boots on the ground’ manner derived from Almonte’s field experiences and personal charisma. He has over 25 years in law enforcement with the El Paso Police Department, with most of his career spent on the front lines of the drug war. The training is further augmented by Almonte’s extensive field research conducted at narco-shrines in both Mexico and the United States, personal interviews of those involved in the honoring of legitimate and worship of illegitimate saints related to the drug trade and other criminal activities, and his ongoing consultation with members of U.S. law enforcement throughout the country concerning recent narcotics cases.

Santa Muerte shrine inside drug house

US Marshal Almonte inside Santa Muerte temple

Major themes and lessons learned from this training course include:

• Providing the warning signs of what to look for in order to heighten officer awareness of the situations that they may find themselves in when facing Mexican drug traffickers.

• The notion that ‘smuggler superstition’ often results in ‘police suspicion’ with some very major drug busts resulting as a consequence.

• Patron Mexican cartel saints and spirits may be found in various combinations and in strange item pairings such as with ‘Scar Face’ movie posters and other very common images.

• That many worshipers of the unsanctioned saints—such as Juan Soldado (Patron Saint of Illegal Aliens) or Santa Muerte (Saint Death)— and especially those who honor the Catholic saints of last resort (e.g. Judas Tadeo), typically do not engage in criminal behavior.

• The interrelationship of probable cause and preponderance of evidence as it relates to the use of legitimate and illegitimate saint icons and imagery in the possession of drug traffickers.

• Explanations of candle and sympathetic magic, cleansing, and other rituals and spells and the differences between witches and healers in Mexican folk religion.

• The fact that the instructor has great depth of knowledge and provides many nuances and subtleties concerning the patron saints of the Mexican underworld that cannot be found anywhere in written reports and stories published on this topic.

It is suggested that officers who may benefit from this training should seriously consider taking it when it has been scheduled for their operational area. Generally this training is well broadcasted in advance by the hosting agencies with course signup information posted at law enforcement training websites. For further information regarding this subject matter, you can contact U.S. Marshal Robert Almonte at 210.271.2525. 

US Military Expands its Drug War in Latin America

Mon, 02/04/2013 - 12:33am

US Military Expands its Drug War in Latin America by Martha Mendoza, Associated Press.

... In the most expensive initiative in Latin America since the Cold War, the U.S. has militarized the battle against the traffickers, spending more than $20 billion in the past decade. U.S. Army troops, Air Force pilots and Navy ships outfitted with Coast Guard counternarcotics teams are routinely deployed to chase, track and capture drug smugglers.

The sophistication and violence of the traffickers is so great that the U.S. military is training not only law enforcement agents in Latin American nations, but their militaries as well, building a network of expensive hardware, radar, airplanes, ships, runways and refueling stations to stem the tide of illegal drugs from South America to the U.S...

Trans-Border Institute Briefs NORTHCOM on Mexican Security Challenges

On Wednesday, January 9, TBI Director David Shirk provided a briefing to the U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) on recent developments in Mexican security. The briefing took place at NORTHCOM's facilities in Colorado Springs and included high-level analysts from the Department of Defense and other U.S. government agencies. The title of the briefing, "The Drug War in Mexico: U.S.-Mexico Security Challenges in 2013 and Beyond," provided an overview of the recent findings of the Justice in Mexico Project, sponsored by a generous three-year grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. Specifically, the presentation included new data from the institute's forthcoming report on drug violence in Mexico, as well as a discussion of Mexico's changing security context under newly inaugurated President Enrique Peña Nieto. The presentation used for this briefing is available in PDF form.

Peter J. Munson Fri, 02/01/2013 - 5:08pm