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Mexican Cartels Operating Throughout the Western Hemisphere

Tue, 10/02/2012 - 4:24am

Elyssa Pachico, “Mexico Cartels Operate in 16 Countries: Report.” Insight Crime. 19 September 2012:

Mexico’s drug cartels now have a foothold in 16 countries in the Western Hemisphere, according to the Mexican Attorney General’s Office, suggesting that these criminal networks have diversified their areas of operation in order to minimize risks.

Spanish source: Silvia Otero y José Guaderrama, “Sin freno, expansion del narco en Al.” El Universal. Lunes 17 de septiembre de 2012:

MÉXICO, DF (El Universal).- En México, la disputa por el control de los territorios se libra entre ocho cárteles de la droga que operan en todo el país y que consolidaron sus proyectos de expansión y se convirtieron en grupos organizados trasnacionales, con presencia y alianzas con grupos criminales locales desde Canadá a Brasil, hasta sumar 16 países del hemisferio.

Piedras Negras, Coahuila, Mexico Under Martial Law After Multiple Gun Battles

Fri, 09/28/2012 - 2:29am

Note—Piedras Negras in 2010 had about 150,000 people within the city limits.

Piedras Negras, Coahuila, Mexico under Martial Law after multiple gun battles

Eagle Pass Business Journal

Jose G. Landa

The City of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, Mexico was placed under martial law yesterday, Wednesday, September 26, 2012, by local and federal authorities after multiple, intense gun battles between federal and state special forces and criminal elements throughout the day continuing until the late-evening…

Mexico Captures Zetas Drug Lord Ivan Velazquez Caballero

Thu, 09/27/2012 - 7:45pm

Mexico Captures Zetas Drug Lord Ivan Velazquez Caballero via the BBC.

Mexican security forces say they have arrested one of the country's most wanted drugs traffickers.

Ivan Velazquez Caballero, known both as El Taliban and as Z-50, was a commander of the notorious Zetas cartel...

I'm not a Dr. Bunker or a Capt. Sullivan (LASD), but I do follow the news to include this issue daily. My most humble non-scientific opinion is that more and more cartel leadership and associated networks are being interdicted by Mexican military forces. Yes, there are major hurdles and sometimes these high-profile arrests turn out to be much less than they seem after the perp walk. What say you - you who follow this much more closely than I?

Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #14: Anti-Aircraft Mounted .50 cal. Machine Gun and Surface-to-Air Missile Recovered in 2009 (Archival)

Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #14: Anti-Aircraft Mounted .50 cal. Machine Gun and Surface-to-Air Missile Recovered in 2009 (Archival)

The intent of this note is to update the Mexican cartel tactical note series with some archival information dating back to 2009. The following Mexican cartel weapons should be considered rare and have been encountered sporadically as in the case of .50 cal. machine guns and singularly (potentially) as in the case of surface-to-air missiles. The initial news links and analysis provided for these weapons are attributed to Sylvia Longmire’s Mexico’s Drug War, http://borderviolenceanalysis.typepad.com.

Anti-Aircraft Mounted .50 cal. Machine Gun

Key Information: “Mexico police seize anti-aircraft weapon near US border.” Agence France-Presse. 4 April 2009, http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/04/14/09/mexico-police-seize-anti-aircraft-weapon-near-us-border:

MEXICO CITY - Police seized an anti-aircraft machine gun mounted on a van and other heavy weapons at a house in northern Mexico near the US border, an official said Tuesday.

The haul came two days before a visit to Mexico by US President Barack Obama in which Mexico's violent drug cartels and their mainly US-bought weapons were set to top the agenda.

The machine gun seized in Sonora state, bordering Arizona in the United States, could fire 800 shots per minute up to 1,500 meters away, said Rodolfo Cruz, from the federal public security ministry, at a news conference…

Key Information: Mail Foreign Service, “What's a nice girl like you doing with an arsenal like this? Police seize 20-year-old guarding vast weapons cache... including anti-aircraft gun.” Daily Mail. 15 April 2009, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1170064/Whats-nice-girl-like-doing-arsenal-like-Police-seize-20-year-old-guarding-vast-weapons-cache--including-anti-aircraft-gun.html?openGraphAuthor=%2Fhome%2Fsearch.html%3Fs%3D%26authornamef%3DMail%2BForeign%2BService:

Smirking for the camera, this is the 20-year-old woman Mexican police caught guarding an extraordinary arsenal of weapons.

Anahi Beltran Cabrera was seized during a routine patrol in Sonora state, near the U.S. border.

Officers recovered a vast cache of weapons including an anti-aircraft gun capable of firing 800 shots per minute, five rifles, a grenade and part of a grenade launcher.

They believe the haul belongs to a group allegedly linked to the powerful Belt[r]an Leyva drug cartel.

Cabrera was paraded before the media - along with the weapons she was caught guarding.

The anti-aircraft gun, capable of penetrating armour from more than 5,000ft away and found attached to the top of a SUV, was the first of its type to be seized by Mexican police…

Analyisis:  Via Sylvia Longmire’s 14 April 2009 Mexico’s Drug War entry:

…my best guess is that it was an Oerlikon GAI-BO1 model. It’s a Swiss-made air defense weapon, consisting of an Oerlikon KAB 20mm cannon on a hand-traversed and elevated mounting. It makes sense that, if true, this is the kind of anti-aircraft gun that was seized for a few reasons. First, it's the only anti-aircraft gun used by the Mexican army- or at least it was in 2006. Second, the range for the GAI-BO1 lines up with the information in the article, although the rate of fire is off. Third, it’s one of the smallest and lightest anti-aircraft guns in existence, weighing only 547 kilograms(1,203 pounds) - meaning it could ostensibly be mounted on a larger truck or van. That being said, it would be extremely obvious and unwieldy…[1]

The Longmire analysis suggests that the weapon is a Oerlikon 20mm cannon. Her blog site clearly shows a picture of such a cannon but the photo is not referenced to the weapons seizure (it may be a stock photo). The initial identification of the gun mounted weapon, however, is highly in question because a photo of it that appeared in the article “Mexique : une mitrailleuse antiaérienne saisie à la frontière américaine” of Le Monde. That weapon appears to be a heavy machine gun with a ballistic shield and links of .50 cal. ammo draped over it [2]. The photos of the weapon were forwarded to weapons expert David Kuhn. He verified that the ammo was .50 cal. M2, FMJ draped over the chicken plate (shield). He could find no evidence of tracer round linking in the belts but this could be due to poor photo quality or rough handling of the ammo belts. The weapon itself was identified as either an M2 Browning machine gun or a foreign copy [3].

The utility of such a anti-aircraft gun-truck mount for a .50 cal. M2 machine gun for the Beltrán Leyva cartel and its affiliates is that this larger caliber weapon can be effectively employed against both a) rival cartel gun-trucks and improvised armored fighting vehicles (IAFVs) and b) Mexican military helicopters.  Typically, the machine guns seized belonging to the cartels are smaller caliber such as the 7.62 mm M60 machine gun and the .30 cal. Browning machine gun.   

Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM)

Key Information: “Mexican authorities seize Soviet-era missile in Playa Bagdad.” Valley Central. 15 May 2009, http://www.valleycentral.com/news/news_story.aspx?id=300456#.UF-naUL3BmA:

Mexican authorities are investigating the discovery of a Soviet-era anti-aircraft missile south of where the Rio Grande empties into the Gulf [o]f Mexico.

The El Universal newspaper reported that a hotel employee from the beach resort community of Playa Bagdad made the discovery on Thursday night.

The newspaper reported that the discovery prompted the mobilization of the Mexican navy, soldiers and police.

Authorities seized the missile and searched the area for other explosives but did not find any. 

El Universal reported that the type of missile seized is fired from a shoulder launcher and has a range of a little over two miles.

The newspaper reported that the seized weapon is a first-generation Soviet military heat-seeking missile.

Mexican authorities are continuing to investigate how the missile go[t] to Playa Bagdad [4].

Analyisis: Via Sylvia Longmire’s 16 May 2009 Mexico’s Drug War entry:

It's still too early for me to be able to do more than speculate on the origins of this missile, but I'll do just that. The Spanish El Universal article has a few more specifics on the missile capabilities, and I wish the Mexican authorities would have just come out and said the make and model. From what very little I can gather (and again, the better info is in El Universal, if you read Spanish), there’s a chance the missile might be an old Soviet SA-7…[5]

The original El Universal Spanish article confirms, as Longmire suggests, that the missile recovered is likely that of an SA-7. Mention of the infrared (heat seeking) guidance system also being recovered was noted in the article. Apparently a hotel employee found the missile, which contained its explosive warhead, on a local beach.  No other information has appeared concerning this incident. No photos of the recovered missile have been identified. The area of Baghdad Beach (Playa Bagdad) is located in Matamoros, Tamaulipas in the area of influence of the Gulf and Los Zetas cartels— the incident took place prior to their later split. While no links to these cartels have been mentioned, it would have been virtually impossible to illicitly transport the suspected SA-7 missile into that city without the permission of those cartels. The proximity of the recovered missile to the US southern border is also of concern. The circumstances behind the transport of the missile and its subsequent abandonment remain a mystery.

Of interest is that 2 years after this incident, in March 2011, a story broke in which Sinaloa cartel operatives were indicted on weapons charges pertaining to a undercover operation in which they were arrested while attempting to acquire military grade weapons in the US which were to be shipped back to Mexico. These weapons included a US Stinger surface-to-air missile and various anti-tank systems such as the Dragon, AT4, and LAW. The basis of this conspiracy goes back to November 2009, about 6 months after the Playa Bagdad SA-7 incident (6). A conviction leading to a 25-year prison sentence was later obtained in this case (7).

Significance: Cartel Weapons, Surface-to-Air Missile

Source(s):

1. See http://borderviolenceanalysis.typepad.com/mexicos_drug_war/2009/04/mexico-police-seize-antiaircraft-weapon-near-us-border.html.

2. See the photos at “Mexique : une mitrailleuse antiaérienne saisie à la frontière américaine.” Le Monde.14 April 2009, http://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/portfolio/2009/04/14/mexique-une-mitrailleuse-antiaerienne-saisie-a-la-frontiere-americaine_1180691_3222.html.

3. Email correspondence with David Kuhn on 25 September 2012.

4. The original Spanish article is Julio Manuel L. Guzmán, “Localizan misil antiaéreo abandonado en playa de Tamaulipas: Estaba en la orilla de la playa de Bagdad frente a la zona comercial y hotelera.” El Universal. Tamps Jueves 14 De Mayo De 2009, http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/598147.html.

5. See http://borderviolenceanalysis.typepad.com/mexicos_drug_war/2009/05/mexican-authorities-seize-sovietera-missile-in-playa-bagdad.html.

6. Dennis Wagner, “3 accused of plotting to give military weapons to Mexican cartel.”  USA Today.  18 March 2011,  http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2011-03-18-arizona-charges_N.htm.

7. Robert Tilford, “Sinaloa drug cartel member tried to buy Stinger missile, CNN reports.” Examiner.com. 24 August 2012, http://www.examiner.com/article/sinaloa-drug-cartel-member-tried-to-buy-stinger-missile-cnn-reports.

SWJED Thu, 09/27/2012 - 5:04am

Mexico Deploys Troops to Outskirts of Mexico City

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 1:14am

Note— This deployment may represent another “firebreak” crossed concerning the criminal insurgencies taking place in Mexico. In the past Mexico City has been immune to much of the violence taking place in the other regions of that country.

Mexico Deploys Troops to Outskirts of Mexico City

Reuters

MEXICO CITY, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Mexico has sent soldiers to patrol a suburb of Mexico City for the first time to combat a rise in drug-related violence that is beginning to encroach on the capital.

From late Wednesday, a combined force of around 1,000 soldiers, federal police and local police took to the streets of Nezahualcoyotl on the capital's eastern flank, which has suffered from a dispute between two rival drug cartels.

Gulf Cartel Will Likely Survive Arrest of High-Level Leaders

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 12:11am

Gulf Cartel will Likely Survive Arrest of High-level Leaders

Nathan Jones

Baker Institute Blog

Friday, September 14, 2012

The history of major arrests of Mexican drug “cartel” leaders during the administration of President Felipe Calderón (2006-December 2012) indicates that despite important apprehensions, many Mexican organized crime groups prove resilient. Thus, the arrests this week by Mexico’s Marines of two long-time high-level leaders of the Gulf cartel are not likely to decimate the organization.

Mexico’s Commercial Insurgency

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 12:52am

Note— This new Military Review article supports the perception that a ‘commercial insurgency’ is taking place in Mexico. This is actually an older term that was developed back in 1993 by Dr. Steven Metz in The Future of Insurgency. The Mexican cartel variant of this envisioned insurgency form is that of a ‘criminal insurgency’— derived from the ‘commercial insurgency’ construct— whose potentials have been discussed at Small Wars Journal since 2008.     

Mexico’s Commercial Insurgency

Major Christopher Martinez, U.S. Army

Military Review

September-October 2012, pp. 58-62.

In the past several years, U.S. government officials and journalists have compared the violence of transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) within Mexico to the terrorist tactics used by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and suggested that the TCOs are conducting an “insurgency.”

For example, in September 2010, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated, “We face an increasing threat from a well-organized network, a drug- trafficking threat that is, in some cases, morphing into or making common cause with what we would consider an insurgency, in Mexico and in Central America.” She later added, “It’s looking more and more like Colombia did 20 years ago.”

Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #13: Man Crucified in Michoacán, Mexico

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 12:59pm

Primary Mexican news sources are provided for research and translation validation purposes. The incident synopsis and analysis is in English.

Key Information: Localizan a un hombre crucificado en Michoacán Por: Redacción / Sinembargo - septiembre 7 de 2012, http://www.sinembargo.mx/07-09-2012/360135.

Morelia, 7 Sep. (Notimex).- Un hombre que había sido acusado de violar a una mujer apareció crucificado, en el municipio de Contepec, informó la Procuraduría General de Justicia del Estado (PGJE).

El ahora occiso, quien fue identificado como Eladio Martínez Cruz, de 24 años de edad, fue localizado este viernes amarrado en forma de cruz de un madero de casi dos metros de largo y un poste de un señalamiento vial.

El informe ministerial señaló que el cuerpo presentaba huellas de tortura y junto a él había un letrero.

Sobre los hechos se dio a conocer que Martínez Cruz se encontraba relacionado con la violación de una mujer, hechos ocurridos el 3 de septiembre en las inmediaciones de una fábrica de Contepec.

Key Information: Vengadores Anónimos Crucifican a Violador en Michoacán, Sábado, Sepriembre 08, 2012.

 See the picture at this site [Note— it is graphic][1]

Contepec, Michoacán.- Un sujeto acusado de ultrajar a una mujer fue torturado y crucificado en un señalamiento vial de un crucero de esta población, en el que los homicidas le dejaron una cartulina clavada con dos picahielos en el pecho, con una advertencia a los violadores, dedos y traidores.

Todo se desprende de la denuncia penal formulada por la mujer agraviada, de la que se omite su identidad por razones obvias, en la que señaló ante las autoridades que el pasado tres del mes en curso, ella salió de trabajar poco después de las 18:00 horas en una fábrica de esta localidad.

Cuando de pronto, en el trayecto le salió al paso un sujeto que la amagó con un cuchillo y la sometió para cometer sus más bajos instintos, sin embargo, la víctima pudo identificar a su agresor y ante ello el fiscal inició la averiguación previa penal que el caso ameritaba.

De acuerdo con la Procuraduría General de Justicia de Michoacán, el jueves pasado agentes de dicho municipio del oriente michoacano, detuvieron y trasladaban en una patrulla a un sujeto, identificado como Eladio Martínez Cruz.

La finalidad del traslado era confirmar si el individuo había participado en la violación; sin embargo, en el trayecto a la comisaría y justo a la altura de la desviación hacia Atotonilco, dos camionetas con varios sujetos armados, le cerraron el paso a la unidad de la Dirección de Seguridad Pública.

Enseguida sometieron a los gendarmes y subieron por la fuerza al arrestado a uno de los automotores, para darse a la fuga con dirección al Estado de México.

Este viernes, cerca de las 08:00 horas, la Policía Municipal recibió en su base una llamada anónima en la que les informaban que en el poste de señalamientos viales, ubicado en el crucero que conduce a la comunidad El Césped, estaba una persona colgada y muerta.

Por lo anterior le dieron parte a la Policía Ministerial cuyos agentes acompañaron al Ministerio Público para realizar las diligencias necesarias, encontrando a la persona del sexo masculino amarrada de ambos brazos a una tabla de aproximadamente dos metros de largo, la cual subieron con un lazo de plástico hasta la punta del poste, además de que los homicidas lo torturaron y le cercenaron el pene para colocárselo en la boca.

También, al infortunado le clavaron con dos picahielos, una cartulina en el pecho en el que le escribieron un mensaje que dice, “esto me pasó por violador y esto le va a pasar a todos los chismosos, dedos traidores sépanlo que esto no es un juego”.

Finalmente se supo que el hombre colgado fue identificado como Eladio Martínez Cruz y era el mismo presunto violador que les fue arrebatado a los policías.

Who: Eladio Martinez Cruz, 24 years old, who was tortured-killed.

What: The first cartel related crucifixion to take place in Mexico.

When:  The deceased was found Friday 7 September 2012.

Where: At a “T” in the road on a large traffic sign in front of what appears to be a cornfield. This incident took place in the municipality of Contepec, Michoacán, roughly 45 miles East and slightly North of Morelia, Michoacán and 50 miles North-West of Mexico City.

Why: The deceased was alleged to have raped a women near a factory in Contepec, Michoacán and as a result was executed by cartel operatives.

Synopsis: The deceased, Eladio Martinez Cruz, had been the subject of the criminal complaint of rape by a female victim, whom he had threatened with a knife, and was taken into custody by local police officers on Thursday 6 September 2012. On the way to the police station, armed men in two vehicles blocked the police officers and forcibly seized Martinez Cruz. They then drove off with him in the direction of the State of Mexico. At 8:00 AM on Friday 7 September 2012, the municipal police were notified by an anonymous caller that a dead man was hanging from a large traffic sign next to a road. The municipal police, accompanied by the ministerial police, investigated the call and discovered the deceased who was identified as Martinez Cruz. The deceased, who was found naked, had shown signs of torture and was crucified about 18 feet above the ground—his arms were tied to a wooden pole (with rope or cloth) secured by a rope hoisted over the top of a large traffic sign. The rope securing the wooden pole holding the individual was then wrapped around the metal pole securing the sign multiple times and then was tied off near the ground. The male genitalia (penis) was severed and placed in the mouth of the deceased. A pink cardboard placard with a narco message (narcomensaje) was affixed to the deceased via two ice picks plunged into his chest. It read “esto me pasó por violador y esto le va a pasar a todos los chismosos, dedos traidores sépanlo que esto no es un juego” which identified him as a rapist and threatened gossips, traitors, and thieves that this is not a game [Note—looking for a more precise translation].

Analysis: Individuals hung from traffic signs and from freeway underpasses is quite common in the plazas and areas of Mexico where the cartels operate. Typically, a rope or cable is tied around the deceased’s neck or the ankles. An accompanying narco message (narcomensaje) is frequently found with the deceased and evidence of torture is quite common. What is unique about this incident is that it is the first recorded cartel crucifixion to take place in Mexico. It would have been more expedient to simply hang Martinez Cruz by a rope over the traffic sign but instead the time and effort was taken to symbolically crucify him. This act, along with the accompanying narco message, the way in which the alleged rapist was forcibly taken from police custody, the severing of the male genitalia, and the fact that the incident took place in Michoacán all provide a “contextual basis” which suggests that elements of either La Familia or Los Caballeros Templarios (the Knights Templars) splinter group/successor are involved with this abduction and subsequent torture-killing. Both groups in the past have carried out public humiliations and torture-killings against those they deem as undesirables and threats to civil society. Viewing themselves as protectors of the citizenry of Michoacán, both groups, which expose cult-like Christian beliefs, would thus likely view such a symbolic crucifixion as indicative of god’s judgment on a sinner. If this interpretation is accurate, then this barbaric incident would represent another small escalation in radicalized Christian cult-like behaviors emerging in Michoacán.

Addendum: A recent precedent for the threat of Christians crucifying others in Mexico exists.  In September 2011, seventy evangelical protestants were forced to flee from the village of San Rafael Tlanalapan, about 45 miles West of Mexico City, after being threatened with lynching and crucifixion if they remained in the village. The instigator of the threat was Father Ascensión González Solís, the local parish priest, who was subsequently forced to retire.[2]

Significance: Barbarism; Los Caballeros Templarios; Dark Spirituality; La Familia; Spiritual Insurgency

Source(s):

1. For a more detailed photo see “Torturan, ejecutan y crucifican a violador en Michoacán.” Blog del Narco, Sábado, 8 de septiembre de 2012, http://www.blogdelnarco.com/2012/09/torturan-ejecutan-y-crucifican-a-violador-en-michoacan/.

2. “Agreement in Mexican village where Protestants were threatened with crucifixion.” Catholic World News. 4 October 2011, http://www.catholicculture.org/news/headlines/index.cfm?storyid=11945. See also “Mexico Evangelicals Leave Village Amid Crucifixion Threats.” Worthy News. 20 September 2011, http://www.worthynews.com/10963-mexico-evangelicals-leave-village-amid-crucifixion-threats. For a primary Spanish language source see Yadira Llavén, “Católicos amagan con linchar y crucificar a evangélicos.” La Jornada, Viernes 9 de septiembre de 2011, p. 37., http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2011/09/09/estados/037n2est.

Monopoly of Force Does Not Always Explain Peace: Illicit Network Evolution Does

Wed, 08/29/2012 - 5:33pm

There has been a dominant narrative in the study of Mexican drug trafficking which argues that violence goes down when one dominant trafficking organization monopolizes a locale.  This has been used to explain the reductions in violence in Tijuana and now Ciudad Juarez.  There is just one problem with the explanation, it isn’t empirically valid.  In both cities the deeply entrenched local “cartels” continue to operate, though in a more low-profile fashion, while the Sinaloa cartel has entered both cities and has been proclaimed by government officials in the US and Mexico as dominant.  The dominance of the Sinaloa cartel has been credited with the relative drops in violence.  There is another explanation that better fits reality. 

In violent conflicts with the state and rival drug traffickers, the most violent cells of larger networks (those that focus on kidnapping and extortion) are more likely to be killed or captured because they draw state and rival trafficker attention.  As they are wiped out, the remaining cells focus on trafficking, money laundering and maintaining a “low profile.”  Key to maintaining a low profile is reducing violence with other organizations to avoid state attention.  This requires some level of negotiation with rivals or a tacit “live and let live” policy.  While we have little direct evidence of these negotiations save for statements from arrested traffickers, we have the low levels of violence and the continued presence of multiple trafficking groups in shared territories as circumstantial evidence that the monopoly of violence explanation does not explain these relative peace periods. 

Recent articles, including one in Proceso by Victor Clark, have demonstrated the continued presence and operation of the Arellano Felix Organization in Tijuana.  Clark points out that the AFO operates in a very different fashion following its internecine conflict with El Teo a violent lieutenant who splintered from the AFO in 2008.  Following his arrest and the arrest of his top cell leaders in early 2010, violence in the city has declined, particularly as measured by kidnap rates.  This is despite the fact that the Sinaloa cartel established an important presence in Tijuana by annexing cells from the AFO in the same period.  Many argued the Sinaloa cartel was dominant by 2010 and that the AFO was either “a shadow of its former self” or even that it was on the verge of collapse.  Yet its leadership was never captured (Fernando Sanchez Arellano AKA El Ingeniero) and cell leaders such as El Ruedas continued to be arrested, all of which stated that the AFO had regenerated and is far stronger than observers thought.    What has changed for the AFO has been the business model and procedures.  Former enforcer cell leaders have transitioned to low profile trafficking.  In the words of Clark they are now more “entrepreneurial.” 

A similar story is playing out in Juarez where U.S. federal agents have called Sinaloa dominant since 2010.  Yet, Vicente Carillo Fuentes AKA El Viceroy, the head of the Carillo Fuentes Organization (CFO) has not been captured and reports indicate the presence of his organization not just in Juarez, but in other areas of Sinaloa.  Given the personal animosities and violent tendencies of the Viceroy and his battles with Chapo Guzman of the Sinaloa Cartel, a truce seems unlikely.  But it appears that the combined conflict with the Sinaloa cartel and an emboldened police force under the leadership of Julian Leyzaola, have reduced violence in the city despite the continued presence of the CFO.  While the CFO continues to operate, its armed wing La Linea has suffered major arrests and appears to be a less relevant force.  This is similar to the events in Tijuana, where the armed wing of the AFO led by El Teo was eliminated leaving a more pacific drug trafficking-focused AFO behind.  The key difference in Juarez appears to be that La Linea continues to support the CFO and is not in direct conflict with it as Teo was in conflict with the AFO.  Another key difference between Juarez and Tijuana is that the CFO has allied itself to the larger Zetas and Beltran-Leyva alliance.  This makes negotiated settlements with the Sinaloa cartel more difficult despite the evolutionary processes impacting the CFO because it locks the CFO into a much larger scale nation-wide conflict on the side of the Zetas which have the strongest reputation for violence and extortion based activities in the Mexican underworld. 

It is possible that the CFO and Sinaloa cartel continue to operate as traffickers through the same territory, with reduced violence, as violent cells on both sides are killed or arrested by the military, police and each other.  The remaining traffickers are more business oriented and can view drug trafficking as a positive sum rather than a zero-sum game.  This might better explain recent drops in violence in Juarez than the conventional explanation of monopoly of violence or the notion that “they are running out of people to kill.” 

Recent academic journal articles have empirically demonstrated the ability of traffickers to “share” territory.  Using sophisticated large-scale data gathering of open source media (this is truly ground-breaking work by the way), Rios and Coscia have shown that rather than monopolizing territories, traffickers often share them.  However, I would hypothesize within this framework, that a more fine grain analysis will show that the organizations and the cells of those organizations that can share territory are more likely to be trafficking focused as opposed to extortion or kidnapping focused.  Trafficking drugs through a given territory allows all to gain, but forcing licit business owners to pay extortion tax requires the ability to protect them from other traffickers.  There is no incentive to pay a protection tax if the group being paid cannot credibly guarantee the safety of the payer; thus extortion based organizations find it hard to share.  On the other hand various traffickers can plausibly use the same highway to ship drugs without coming into conflict with each other. 

This process suggests that there may be multiple processes at play, which will create a less violent equilibrium in Mexican trafficking.  First, state institutional security capacity is increasing and is likely to continue its increase in Mexico with increased spending, democratic/rule of law norms, and training from the United States via the “new Merida Initiative” which now emphasizes capacity building over military equipment. Second, trafficking networks are experiencing changes in their internal composition.  Territorial and extortion based-cells are being removed by state and rival traffickers while trafficking cells survive.  Local state actors such as former Tijuana Police Chief Leyzaola (current chief of Juarez) are also targeting the most violent actors in these networks, as was the case with the El Teo faction in Tijuana.  These are not rational decisions made by monolithic actors, but structurally determined strategies from illicit networks whose capabilities, skills and predispositions change based on which members and cells in their illicit networks are arrested or killed.  Thus, the illicit network evolutionary process favors traffickers over extorters; which in turn allows for peaceful coexistence in cities like Tijuana.

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