How to Defeat al Qaeda in Iraq and around the Globe
by Dr. Paul R. Chabot, Small Wars Journal
Theory to Strategy (Full PDF Article)
The U.S., Coalition and Iraqi forces have made great progress in combating al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). Today, AQI is severely damaged and limited in its operational potential. However, despite all best efforts, AQI has adjusted to internal and external pressures and remains a threat to the region and national security.
AQI fits the academic definition of a resilient organization. It's aware of challenges, continues to make sense of its environment, learns from failure, adjusts to difficulties and creates or uses resiliency characteristics to sustain itself in what I describe as a resiliency cycle. If U.S., Coalition and Iraqi pressure where to be released on AQI, it would reconstitute itself with a vengeance and wreak havoc throughout the region, yet again.
What this strategy proposes is to simultaneously attack each of AQI's resiliency characteristics by the asset best suited for that mission. As such, AQI will shrink further, much like applying pressure to all sides of a balloon. Results are measured, evaluated, reassessed and refocused. The process of attacking the resiliency charactertics begins again, thereby further shrinking the organization. This process repeats itself over and over, much like peeling back layers of an onion. Eventually, AQI will be so severely shrunk and damaged, that it is but remnants compared to its previous strength. It is at this stage, in its weakest form, that it most susceptible to organizational failure.
This strategy can be a blue-print for fighting not only al Qaeda, but all terrorist organization including criminal/drug trafficking organizations and sophisticated street and prison gangs, worldwide. Simply, such horrific organizations must either adapt to pressures or collapse upon itself like a dying star. Those organizations able to sustain despite such pressure and survive, exhibit resiliency and therefore contain resiliency characteristics. It is these resiliency characteristics that we must focus our efforts upon to bring about the destruction of such evil organizations. It is a precise, focused strategy requiring leadership, resources and patience.
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Comments
I'm not sure that the paper is quite worth all of the accolades given to it in the introduction, or that it's the answer to every problem.
Having said that, I find it to be a very interesting and insightful paper, and the notion of resiliency seems valuable. It isn't quite AI, since it requires creativity, something to be found only in humans. It isn't quite swarm behavior, in that it can be applied by persons rather than organizations and requires more that just instantanous group communication. And hence, the question.
The paper doesn't (seem to) touch the "how" of the resiliency. Does this happen at an organizational level? Does it happen at a personal level? The "organization" or AQI thus far has exhibited both swarm and loosely coupled behavior and highly bureaucratic behavior at times. What makes AQI - or any organization for that matter - resilient? This is what need to be targeted.
At any rate, just thoughts.
Best, HPS