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04/14/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Wed, 04/14/2021 - 9:32am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1.  ODNI Releases 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community

2. Unconventional Warfare and Foreign Internal Defense in the Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia

3.  Will Afghanistan Become a Terrorism Safe Haven Once Again?

4. Afghanistan’s Situation Didn’t Change. American Politics Did

5. That Suburban Home Buyer Could Be a Foreign Government

6. China Poses Biggest Threat to U.S., Intelligence Report Says

7. Israelis May Ban High Tech Cars From Bases: ‘Perfect Espionage Vector’

8. National Defense Strategy 'unrealistic,' says House Armed Services chairman

9. Misinformation in the Military Community and the Next National Security Strategy

10. American Vulnerabilities in an Age of Great Power Competition: The Case for Understanding Domestic Extremism through an Irregular Warfare Lens

11. Getting Serious About Women, Peace & Security

12. Opinion | Biden takes the easy way out of Afghanistan. The likely result is disaster.

13. Biden’s Afghan Exit

14. Japan Is Now Our Most Important Ally. Here’s Why.

15. Big changes coming to Army Stryker brigades

16. Personnel spending cuts won’t help military readiness, key lawmaker warn

17. Number of US Troops Linked to Domestic Terror Plots Small but Growing

18. Would Russia Invade Ukraine and China Invade Taiwan Simultaneously?

19. Troops are Leaving Afghanistan. Can the U.S. Still Advise Afghan Security Forces?

20. China’s Dystopian “New IP” Plan Shows Need for Renewed US Commitment to Internet Governance

21. FDD | Diplomatic Malpractice: Reforming the WHO After China’s COVID Cover-up

22. FDD | Biden Administration Nominates Key Cyber Personnel

23. ‘Last Out: Elegy of a Green Beret’ adapted to film

24. Secret and Careful: How America Spied On Imperial Japan in China

25. The Special Forces op that supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq

26. Intelligence officials reassert their role post-Trump

 

1. ODNI Releases 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community

odni.gov · by ODNI Office of Strategic Communications

The 27 page unclassified report here:

Excerpts: “Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability and intent to advance their interests at the expense of the United States and its allies, despite the pandemic. China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily, and technologically—and is pushing to change global norms. Russia is pushing back against Washington where it can globally, employing techniques up to and including the use of force. Iran will remain a regional menace with broader malign influence activities, and North Korea will be a disruptive player on the regional and world stages. Major adversaries and competitors are enhancing and exercising their military, cyber, and other capabilities, raising the risks to US and allied forces, weakening our conventional deterrence, and worsening the longstanding threat from weapons of mass destruction. 

 

NORTH KOREAN PROVOCATIVE ACTIONS 

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may take a number of aggressive and potentially destabilizing actions to reshape the regional security environment and drive wedges between the United States and its allies—up to and including the resumption of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing. 

· We assess that Kim views nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent against foreign intervention and believes that over time he will gain international acceptance and respect as a nuclear power. He probably does not view the current level of pressure on his regime as enough to require a fundamental change in its approach. 

· Kim also aims to achieve his goals of gaining prestige, security, and acceptance as a nuclear power through conventional military modernization efforts, nuclear weapon and missile development, foreign engagement, sanctions-evasion, and cyber capabilities. 

 

Military Capabilities 

North Korea will pose an increasing threat to the United States, South Korea, and Japan as it continues to improve its conventional military capabilities, providing Kim with diverse tools to advance his political objectives or inflict heavy losses if North Korea were attacked. 

· Pyongyang portrayed a growing and more diverse strategic and tactical ballistic missile force during its January 2021 and October 2020 military parades. 

 

WMD 

North Korea will be a WMD threat for the foreseeable future, because Kim remains strongly committed to the country’s nuclear weapons, the country is actively engaged in ballistic missile research and development, and Pyongyang’s CBW efforts persist. 

· Despite announcing an end to North Korea’s self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapons and ICBM testing in December 2019, Kim thus far has not conducted long-range missile testing and has left the door open to future denuclearization talks with the United States. Kim may be considering whether to resume long-range missile or nuclear testing this year to try to force the United States to deal with him on Pyongyang’s terms. 

 

Cyber 

North Korea’s cyber program poses a growing espionage, theft, and attack threat. 

· Pyongyang probably possesses the expertise to cause temporary, limited disruptions of some critical infrastructure networks and disrupt business networks in the United States, judging from its operations during the past decade, and it may be able to conduct operations that compromise software supply chains. 

North Korea has conducted cyber theft against financial institutions and cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide, potentially stealing hundreds of millions of dollars, probably to fund government priorities, such as its nuclear and missile programs. 

 

2.  Unconventional Warfare and Foreign Internal Defense in the Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia

DOD Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms

Some doctrinal background on UW and FID.

The two key Title 10 special operations missions are unconventional warfare and foreign internal defense. Below are four key definitions from the JP 1-02.

The definitions are short and simple. The UW definition was shortened by a USSOCOM working group in 2009 because the CDR, USSOCOM at the time wanted an easy to articulate and easily understood definition of UW to improve understanding and acceptance outside of SOF. However, this sacrificed more detailed understanding and a certain level of intellectual rigor.  In reality if a practitioner wants to know more about the concepts he/she has to go to the relevant doctrinal manual but of course few outside the SOF community do so (and probably many within the SOF community do not do so either). However, up until 1997 DOD used to produce something called the Joint Encyclopedia which I believe served as the bridge between the DOD Dictionary and detailed doctrinal publications. 

Below I have provided the terms from the current JP 1-02 followed by the entries in the Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia. UW and FID are two of the most misunderstood and undervalued special operations missions and the reason for that is few outside of the SF and SOF community read the doctrine. However, if we would resurrect the Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia we might be able to provide useful information to help understand the UW and FID missions (and all the other concepts well beyond SOF in the 737 page encyclopedia).  These entries provide another level of description and understanding of the concepts in the DOD Dictionary. 

I think you can see that UW in particular is a very comprehensive and robust mission and not just about overthrowing a government with guerrilla forces which is the subconscious definition for most people.

I offer these Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia entries as a "public service" for those who want to have a better understanding of the UW and FID missions but cannot do the deep dive necessary in the doctrine.  I would argue that these are critical concepts for irregular warfare, support to political warfare and campaigns as part of Great Power Competition and operations in the "gray zone."

From the January 2021 Joint Pub 2-01 DOD Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms

special forces — United States Army forces organized, trained, and equipped to conduct special operations with an emphasis on unconventional warfare capabilities. Also called SF. (JP 3-05)

subversion — Actions designed to undermine the military, economic, psychological, or political strength or morale of a governing authority. See also unconventional warfare. (JP 3-24)

unconventional warfare — Activities conducted to enable a resistance movement or insurgency to coerce, disrupt, or overthrow a government or occupying power by operating through or with an underground, auxiliary, and guerrilla force in a denied area. Also called UW. (JP 3-05)

foreign internal defense — Participation by civilian agencies and military forces of a government or international organizations in any of the programs and activities undertaken by a host nation government to free and protect its society from subversion, lawlessness, insurgency, terrorism, and other threats to its security. Also called FID. (JP 3-22)

This is an excerpt from the Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia which is still posted on the DTIC web site. The latest version is from 1997.

 

3. Will Afghanistan Become a Terrorism Safe Haven Once Again?

The New York Times · by Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt · April 13, 2021

And what if it does sooner rather than later? What is our response?

 

4. Afghanistan’s Situation Didn’t Change. American Politics Did

defenseone.com · by Kevin Baron

A very interesting question in the subtitle. Can we fight terrorism in a new way?

 

5. That Suburban Home Buyer Could Be a Foreign Government

WSJ · by Konrad Putzier

I have been observing a lot of homes in suburban Alexandria being sold very quickly at very high prices. Now I wonder if foreign governments are buying these.

Excerpts: “Today, more U.S. real-estate companies and Wall Street firms are buying in bulk or building single-family rental homes specifically for rentals, allowing foreign investors to back them with large sums of money.

Home builder Lennar Corp. , for example, recently launched a venture to buy single-family rental homes across the country. The company said it already has commitments from investors for $1.25 billion and will use that to buy $4 billion worth of homes. A number of these investors are based or affiliated with companies abroad, say people familiar with the matter. That includes Allianz Real Estate, a subsidiary of the German insurance giant, which said it committed $300 million.

In the U.S., Allianz had focused mostly on office skyscrapers in big cities, which tend to be easier to buy and sell. It then branched out to warehouses and apartments. The firm started discussions with Lennar about the venture in early 2020.

Unlike a decade ago, when investors bought foreclosed homes and those already occupied, the focus is now on newly built properties. “The lack of institutional ownership just shows you how difficult it is to get into the market,” said Christoph Donner, who heads Allianz Real Estate’s North America business.

 

6. China Poses Biggest Threat to U.S., Intelligence Report Says

The New York Times · by Julian E. Barnes · April 13, 2021

Excerpts: “Typically, the director of national intelligence delivers the threat assessment to Congress and releases a written report alongside it. But no declassified assessment was issued last year, as the Trump administration’s intelligence agencies sought to avoid angering the White House.

In 2019, Dan Coats, then the director of national intelligence, delivered an analysis of threats from Iran, North Korea and the Islamic State that was at odds with President Donald J. Trump’s views. The testimony prompted Mr. Trump to lash out on Twitter, admonishing his intelligence chiefs to “go back to school.”

Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence; William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director; and other top intelligence officials will testify about the report on Wednesday and Thursday.

“The American people should know as much as possible about the threats facing our nation and what their intelligence agencies are doing to protect them,” said Ms. Haines, whose office released the report.

 

7. Israelis May Ban High Tech Cars From Bases: ‘Perfect Espionage Vector’

breakingdefense.com · by Arie Egozi and Brad D. Williams · April 13, 2021

Wow. This is an interesting OPSEC problem.

Excerpts: “Some countries, including China, have already banned Tesla cars from entering military bases. This has prompted Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk to publicly defend the company.

The company’s Beijing office issued a statement regarding its onboard cameras on Chinese microblogging site Weibo. Last month, speaking virtually at the China Development Forum, Musk said, “If a commercial company did engage in spying, the negative effects to that company would be extremely bad.” He added the company would be “shut down everywhere.”

But Tesla, the company, as a threat actor is only part of the concern for military services. Another, perhaps far more serious threat, would be other governments hacking the cars as a means of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance on bases — or for more reckless or dangerous purposes. In particular, Iran has not shied away from conducting destructive and reckless cyberattacks against its regional adversaries in the past. Following an Israeli cyberattack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility on Sunday, tensions are high between Israel and Iran.

If the IDF does ban cars, the leased cars and those owned by the IDF and equipped with cameras and GPS may be parked outside the bases that will operate shuttle services from the main gate. The IDF and other sensitive facilities stopped the use of video equipment made in China several years ago after some experts said that some of these systems had a “backdoor” that could enable someone to see what the video equipment sees.

Other security experts told Breaking Defense that the danger of hacking military systems calls for “hardening” certain subsystems that may be affected remotely by hostile parties.

The IDF is operating a massive cyber defense operation, but experts who spoke with Breaking Defense said that while main systems are protected, the danger can be posed by “basic threats” like connected cars.

 

8. National Defense Strategy 'unrealistic,' says House Armed Services chairman

Stars and Stripes · by Sarah Cammarata · April 13, 2021

The key question and the essence of strategy: What is truly necessary and possible?

Excerpts:Smith argued the document’s long list of aims – winning an “all-out” war with China, countering Russian aggression, bolstering the U.S. nuclear arsenal, and deterring North Korea – is not only extremely costly, but requires more military personnel to achieve than the U.S. has now.

“We don’t have the people to meet that many different needs, to fight that many battles at the same time… we’re sort of perpetually chasing our tail,” he said.

Smith said, for example, combatant commanders frequently complain that requests they make for forces, whether that includes aircraft carriers, troops, drones or planes, go unfilled.

“We need to get back to a core principle of what is truly necessary and what is possible,” the congressman said.

 

9. Misinformation in the Military Community and the Next National Security Strategy

thestrategybridge.org · by Matthew G. Butler · April 14, 2021

This is analysis I did not expect. Some food for thought.

Conclusion: “In conclusion, the next National Security Strategy must address misinformation within the military community. If the next National Security Strategy forces that introspection, military leaders can work toward possible solutions throughout the community. Secretary Austin committed “to rid our ranks of racists and extremists” during his Senate confirmation hearing.[26] Furthermore, Austin emphasized the criticality of fighting internal threats within the military to ensure the Department of Defense could fight external adversaries.[27] Misinformation creates fog and friction in the battlespace of the mind. The National Security Strategy sets the tone throughout the national security enterprise and, specifically, provides senior leadership guidance to thwart misinformation among service members, veterans, and military family members. Lastly, misinformation must be addressed throughout the continuum of military affiliation, crossing multiple departments from Defense to Veterans Affairs and into broader society. Twenty percent of the arrested and charged January Insurrectionists were veterans spurred by misinformation to join hundreds of individual threats (in the form of fellow Americans) to national security.[28] The next National Security Strategy can serve as a response to a genuine need in the military community as well as defense against potential domestic insurgents.”

 

10. American Vulnerabilities in an Age of Great Power Competition: The Case for Understanding Domestic Extremism through an Irregular Warfare Lens

mwi.usma.edu · by Wes J. Bryant · April 14, 2021

Conclusion: “In examining how we can better protect our nation, its interests, and the American people, the United States must make a deliberate shift inward to assess domestic vulnerabilities from the perspective of those who can, and will, exploit them. Perhaps it is even more fitting, in this context, to borrow wisdom from the rich cultural and military history of one of those very adversaries, for as Sun Tzu reminds us: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”

 

11. Getting Serious About Women, Peace & Security

thestrategybridge.org · Joan Johnson-Freese and Nalani Tyrrell · April 13, 2021

Excerpts: “During the May 2019 House Intelligence hearing, more transparent strategies in granting security clearances, clear feedback from promotion boards, and more blind hiring practices were raised by intelligence community representatives for implementation within the intelligence community. Those procedures, and committed leadership at every level, will further promote inclusive diversity in the intelligence community. The military should make similarly appropriate efforts as well, as cogently pointed out by a female member of the Air Force cyber warriors team, else risk an even bigger shortage of cyber specialists than already expected.

Leadership at all security related organizations must—perhaps for the first time—read and commit to implementation of the Women, Peace and Security framework for entrenched policies and practices to change. They must understand and assure their subordinates do as well, that implementation of the Women, Peace and Security framework is not a “nice thing to do” but a 21st century security imperative. Including it in the National Security Strategy is a good way to assure that happens.”

 

12. Opinion | Biden takes the easy way out of Afghanistan. The likely result is disaster.

The Washington Post · by the Editorial Board · April 13, 2021

The Washington Post Editorial Board is critical of President Biden's decision.

 

13. Biden’s Afghan Exit

WSJ · by the Editorial Board  ·April 13, 2021

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board is also critical of President Biden's decision.

 

14. Japan Is Now Our Most Important Ally. Here’s Why.

hudson.org · by Kenneth R. Weinstein

This may not be helpful with our broader alliance structure. Our Korean allies may have an emotional response to this. We have avoided the "rating" by calling our alliances the cornerstone (Japan) and linchpin (Korea).

 

15.  Big changes coming to Army Stryker brigades

armytimes.com · by Todd South · April 13, 2021

Excerpts: “Speaking at the annual Maneuver Capabilities Development and Integration Directorate out of the Maneuver Center of Excellence at Fort Benning, Georgia, on April 7, Mason laid out both the changes to the formation and gear that SBCT soldiers will see in the near and long-term future.

For soldiers, some of the bigger changes will come in the setup of the formation.

The Army plans to add an electronic warfare platoon, a cyberspace electromagnetic activities cell, drones, additive manufacturing and drone maintenance platoons, an additional platoon to each cavalry squadron, two more artillery guns per battery, a third engineer company, robotic combat vehicle operators and an attached Mobile Short-Range Air Defense from the division level.”

 

16. Personnel spending cuts won’t help military readiness, key lawmaker warn

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · April 13, 2021

Pennywise and pound foolish. Servicemembers will pay the bill.

 

17. Number of US Troops Linked to Domestic Terror Plots Small but Growing

voanews.com · by Jeff Seldin

Based on Seth Jones' recent CSIS report.

 

18. Would Russia Invade Ukraine and China Invade Taiwan Simultaneously?

19fortyfive.com · by Daniel Davis · April 11, 2021

Daniel Davis provides us with one very worst case planning scenario.

 

19. Troops are Leaving Afghanistan. Can the U.S. Still Advise Afghan Security Forces?

realcleardefense.com · by Alexander Powell

Sure. We will call them advisors and not combat troops and put a force cap on the mission and then forget about it. 

But seriously, this is a discussion of a concept of a "remote advisory cell."

Conclusion: “In conclusion, al-Qaeda and the Islamic State remain present in Afghanistan, and the U.S. retains an enduring interest in keeping counterterrorism pressure on those groups. As long as the Taliban waver on their counterterrorism commitments, the Afghan Air Force and SOF are the United States’ chief and best options for conducting counterterrorism operations absent a U.S. troop presence on the ground. A remote advisory cell is a feasible option for maintaining security cooperation relationships with critical Afghan partner units, though it should adhere to the common features identified above to be as effective as possible. The Taliban, meanwhile, are unlikely to readily accept the establishment of a remote advisory cell, limiting the idea’s utility to specific circumstances. Even so, a remote advisory cell may have domestic political benefits given the increased force protection and likely reduced costs it would afford over the current U.S. footprint in Afghanistan.”

 

20. China’s Dystopian “New IP” Plan Shows Need for Renewed US Commitment to Internet Governance

Just Security · by Mark Montgomery and Theo Lebryk · April 13, 2021

Conclusion: “The United States cannot afford a similar failure to compete, as was the case in international fora associated with 5G development and international cybercrime. Chinese dominance in standardization will cost American firms market share and can open the door for more Chinese backdoors around the globe. Huawei dominance on New IP and 6G would not only create a less free, less interoperable internet, it would pave the way for authoritarian governments to gain expanded say over future changes to the internet for years to come.

The Chinese New IP proposal can be successfully contested, but only if the United States rallies its private-industry partners and like-minded international democratic governments to the cause. They must all work together to collectively rein in the threat of authoritarian governments using multilateral institutions such as the ITU to export their vision of the internet worldwide before it is too late.”

 

21. FDD | Diplomatic Malpractice: Reforming the WHO After China’s COVID Cover-up

fdd.org · by Craig Singleton · April 13, 2021

Excerpt:The anniversary of the first COVID-19 lockdowns came and went, and yet the world remains no closer to understanding the virus’ true origins. Nor is the WHO positioned to respond more effectively to the next global pandemic, which may be only years, not decades, away. Chinese authorities have actively obstructed the investigation into COVID-19’s origins and deserve ample condemnation for putting global health at risk. Yet the WHO also bears substantial responsibility for the current impasse. It has resisted multiple efforts to implement reforms after previous failures to deal effectively with outbreaks of infectious diseases, including SARS and Ebola. Nor does the WHO’s current leadership appear capable of standing up to member states such as China that undermine its work. Finally, the United States bears some responsibility for the WHO’s flawed performance, since Washington has donated billions of taxpayer dollars to the organization without demanding any accountability in return. After the devastation wrought by COVID-19, continued engagement without a serious campaign for WHO reform would be nothing short of diplomatic malpractice.”

 

22. FDD | Biden Administration Nominates Key Cyber Personnel

fdd.org · by  Mark Montgomery · April 13, 2021

 

23. ‘Last Out: Elegy of a Green Beret’ adapted to film

armytimes.com · by Harm Venhuizen · April 14, 2021

 

24.  Secret and Careful: How America Spied On Imperial Japan in China

The National Interest · by Warfare History Network · April 13, 2021

Some often overlooked history of the OSS in WWII.

 

25. The Special Forces op that supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq

wearethemighty.com · by Miguel Ortiz · March 19, 2021

An often overlooked mission.

 

26. Intelligence officials reassert their role post-Trump

CNN · by Katie Bo Williams, Kylie Atwood and Zachary Cohen

 

----------

 

"I have noticed that nothing I never said ever did me any harm." 

- Calvin Coolidge

 

"I will not disgrace the soldier's arms, nor abandon the comrade who stands at my side, but whether alone or with many,

I will fight to defend things sacred and profane.

I will hand down my country not lessened, but larger and better than I have received it."

-  Athenian Oath

 

 "I cannot give birth to wisdom myself and the accusation that many make against me, that while I question other, I myself bring nothing wise to light due to my lack of wisdom, is accurate. The reason for this is as follows: God forces me to serve as a midwife and prevents me from giving brith."

- Socrates

 

04/14/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Wed, 04/14/2021 - 9:06am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea may be considering resumption of nuclear testing this year: U.S. report

2. N.Korea Backtracks on Ban of Open-Air Markets

3. North Korea Could Have 250 Nuclear Weapons by 2027, Report States

4. Sanctions on North Korea effective despite illicit activity, analyst says

5. KLO members to finally receive compensation, but not much (South Korea)

6. [Interview] Attorney for N. Korean human rights says US only listens to politically charged defectors

7. South warned to not ‘downplay’ U.S. Congress's anti-leaflet hearing

8. North Korea best handled with allies

9. Korea's diplomatic capacity lacking

10. U.S. Spy Chiefs Warn of Threats From China to Climate Cha

11. Sanatorium director in N. Pyongan Province arrested for selling bottled water at inflated prices

12. N. Korean Workers' Party releases new information about recently-established Ministry of Justice

13. Pro-Pyongyang media denies economic hardship after 'Arduous March' speech

14. Korean American Nominated for U.S. State Dept. Job

15. Number of incoming N. Korean defectors dropped by 77 pct on-year in Q1: official

16. S. Korea again marks world's lowest birthrate: UN report

 

1. N. Korea may be considering resumption of nuclear testing this year: U.S. report

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 14, 2021

From the Threat Assessment: Despite announcing an end to North Korea’s self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapons and ICBM testing in December 2019, Kim thus far has not conducted long-range missile testing and has left the door open to future denuclearization talks with the United States. Kim may be considering whether to resume long-range missile or nuclear testing this year to try to force the United States to deal with him on Pyongyang’s terms. 

 

2.  N.Korea Backtracks on Ban of Open-Air Markets

english.chosun.com · April 12, 2021

Perhaps Kim is realizing that if he does not allow these markets to function it is going to create blowback that he may not be able to control.

Does this provide an indication of possible resistance potential in the future?

 

3. North Korea Could Have 250 Nuclear Weapons by 2027, Report States

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · April 13, 2021

From the joint RAND/Asan report here

 

4. Sanctions on North Korea effective despite illicit activity, analyst says

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · April 13, 2021

There is one way that sanctions are working that I think is too often overlooked.  Kim raised expectations in. 2018 with his military and elite that he could "play" trump and Moon and get sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear weapons. He has failed to do this and some escapees (defectors) tell me this is the biggest failure by any of the three Kims.  This is generating tremendous internal pressure on Kim.  This is the kind of pressure that could cause Kim to change his strategy.  Yes we would like better enforcement of sanctions and we should call out Chinese and Russian complicity in sanctions evasion activities.  But even though we could improve enforcement, the key point for the Biden administration is to not make sanctions relief part of the new strategy.

On the other hand we should not be duped by the argument that sanctions are hurting the Korean people in the north. The reason they are suffering is solely due to the policy decisions of Kim Jong-un. He has chosen to prioritize his nuclear and missile programs, conventional military modernization, and support for the regime legitimacy over the welfare of the Korean people in the north. Kim Has the power and the resources (especially through his illicit activities) to ease the suffering of the Korean people but he chooses not to help them while demanding the utmost loyalty from them

 

5. KLO members to finally receive compensation, but not much (South Korea)

koreanjoongangdaily.joings.com · April 13, 2021

These partisan and Korean patriots were caught in the ultimate catch-22.  They were fighting for the freedom of their country but not in the Korean military.  They fought under the UN Command which of course doesn't provide benefits and compensation as a nation state does to its military members.  This is part of the moral hazard we can create in unconventional warfare when working through, with, and by indigenous forces. 

I recall meeting partisan commander Park many times over the years at the annual celebration at their memorial Kangwha Island in the Han River Estuary.  We could see his house on the north Korean side. He was a high school teacher in what was then South Korea.  When the north invaded he took his class south and eventually linked up with the UN forces and joined the partisans.  they were trained in parachute operations by US forces and then conducted 61 parachute infiltrations into north Korea to gather intelligence - exfiltration was on foot conducting a passage through the front lines.

Here is a link to SOF in the Korea War from the USASOC Historian's Office. There are a number of articles on the 8240th and the Korean partisans and the wide range of operations they conducted.

 

6. [Interview] Attorney for N. Korean human rights says US only listens to politically charged defectors

Hani · by Kwon Hyuk-chul · April 09, 2021

This human rights lawyer is a late addition to the witness list for the Korean human rights hearing by the Lantos commission in Congress tomorrow (information at this link).  I wonder about the backstory about she ended up on the witness list.

Her views are insulting not only to the US but to the Koreans from the north who have escaped. 

 

7. South warned to not ‘downplay’ U.S. Congress's anti-leaflet hearing

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Yoo Jee-Hye and Sarah Kim

This is going to create more friction in the alliance but it must be done. This law is harmful to so many on so many levels - and it impacts the alliance since it actually provides support to Kim Jong-un .

 

8. North Korea best handled with allies

The Korea Times · by Arthur I Cyr · April 13, 2021

Concur.

But I wonder why Mr. Cyr does not give credit to Kim Young Sam (who was one of the "three Kims") being elected in 1993 as the transition point for South Korean democracy or why he chose to mention the Nobel Peace Prize when we all know the facts surrounding it.

“Democratic change culminated with election in 1998 of President Kim Dae-jung, heroic opponent of dictatorship. In 2000, he received the Nobel Peace Prize. During the earlier dictatorship, Kim survived imprisonment and at least one attempt to kill him. Occasional political turmoil since 1998 confirms South Korea's democracy.

As in the past, U.S. leaders should work with allies, underscore military commitment, and pursue negotiation. The Biden administrations deployment of traditional diplomacy is encouraging.”

 

9. Korea's diplomatic capacity lacking

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · April 14, 2021

The nuclear waste water issue with Japan is a complicated one.

Excerpts:Despite its strong protest, Korea has a few options such as reinforcing radiation testing on imported food products and inspections of supply chain origins for food imports.

"I am furious about what the government has done so far about the issue that is directly linked to the people's safety," Rep. Joo Ho-young, the acting leader of the main opposition People Power Party, said Wednesday.

Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said, "The government needs to join forces with countries that will be immediately affected by the radioactive water such as China, Taiwan and Russia to reflect their position on Japan's decision."

 

10. U.S. Spy Chiefs Warn of Threats From China to Climate Change

Bloomberg · by Tony Capaccio, Chris Strohm and Peter Martin · April 13, 2021

 

11. Sanatorium director in N. Pyongan Province arrested for selling bottled water at inflated prices

dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · April 14, 2021

No surprise about north Korean corruption.  Everyone is trying to survive.

 

12. N. Korean Workers' Party releases new information about recently-established Ministry of Justice

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · April 14, 2021

Note the central importance of the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD).

 

13. Pro-Pyongyang media denies economic hardship after 'Arduous March' speech

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · April 14, 2021

It is hard to walk this back.

 

14. Korean American Nominated for U.S. State Dept. Job

english.chosun.com

 

15.  Number of incoming N. Korean defectors dropped by 77 pct on-year in Q1: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 14, 2021

Escapees.  Please call them escapees.

We are seeing the results of the Kim family regime's draconian population and resources control measures.

 

16. S. Korea again marks world's lowest birthrate: UN report

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 14, 2021

This Is going to be a long term national security issue making unification that much more important to Korea.

 

------------

 

"I have noticed that nothing I never said ever did me any harm." 

- Calvin Coolidge

 

"I will not disgrace the soldier's arms, nor abandon the comrade who stands at my side, but whether alone or with many,

I will fight to defend things sacred and profane.

I will hand down my country not lessened, but larger and better than I have received it."

-  Athenian Oath

04/13/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Tue, 04/13/2021 - 9:27am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. Statement From Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby on 4-Star Reviewer Appointment on Manda Bay Investigation

2. After War Zone Scandals, Special Operators Are Curbing Deployments and Investing in Ethics Training

3. Special Ops and CIA sabotage missions may shape future wars

4. Exploring Chinese Military Thinking on Social Media Manipulation Against Taiwan

5. A 35-year CIA veteran explains what China's up to around Taiwan and what the US should do about it

6. In a dramatic turnaround, China has started to lose the Covid Cold War

7. No Release for Ex-Officer Guilty in 'Fatal Vision' Murders

8. Georgetown Law Professor Decries ‘Maoist Takeover’ of Academia

9. China’s Message to America: We’re an Equal Now

10. DoD’s New Pushback Against Chinese Money In US Defense Industry

11. Options to Ensure the Best Indo-Pacific Policy in the U.S. Department of Defense

12. What Maps Can Tell Us About U.S. Strategy for Europe and Asia

13. The Quad (finally) delivers: Can it be sustained?

14. The Military, Police, and the Rise of Terrorism in the United States

15. What America’s Vaccination Campaign Proves to the World

16. Fulfilling Our Duty to Afghan and Iraqi Interpreters Is a Matter of Honor—and of National Security

17. US Needs to Show Its Willingness to Defend Taiwan 

18. How Biden Will—and Won’t—Battle the Pentagon

19. US spy chiefs to warn of threats from SolarWinds to North Korea

20. Seventh Fleet move a reminder that Quad must remain a group of equals, not a US-led posse

21. FDD | Turkey’s Courtship with China Spells Trouble for Uyghurs

22. Striking the Right Balance: How Russian Information Operations in the Baltic States Should Inform US Strategy in Great Power Competition

 

1. Statement From Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby on 4-Star Reviewer Appointment on Manda Bay Investigation

defense.gov April 12, 2021

 

2. After War Zone Scandals, Special Operators Are Curbing Deployments and Investing in Ethics Training

military.com · by Stephen Losey · April 12, 2021

 

3. Special Ops and CIA sabotage missions may shape future wars

audacy.com · by Jack Murphy · April 9, 2021

Subversion and sabotage are key pillars of unconventional warfare.

Sometimes it is useful to remember the older definitions of unconventional warfare:

A broad spectrum of military and paramilitary operations conducted in enemy-held, enemy-controlled, or politically sensitive territory. Unconventional warfare includes, but is not limited to, the interrelated fields of guerrilla warfare, evasion and escape, subversion, sabotage,
and other operations of a low visibility, covert or
clandestine nature. These interrelated aspects of unconventional warfare may be prosecuted singly or collectively by predominantly indigenous personnel, usually supported and directed in varying degrees by (an) external sources(s) during all conditions of war
or peace. 

  (FM  31-20, 1990)

 

4. Exploring Chinese Military Thinking on Social Media Manipulation Against Taiwan

jamestown.org · by Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga · April 12, 2021

Conclusion:In retrospect, it is clear the PLA, and especially PLASSF Base 311, prepared for and may have executed a campaign to covertly manipulate Taiwanese social media and interfere in Taiwan’s 2018 elections. This article shed light on how long the PLA—as the CCP’s “barrel of the gun”—has been interested in Taiwanese social media and focused on exploiting it for political interference against Taiwan. Social media is simply the latest and greatest way for the PLA to artificially manipulate Taiwanese public opinion.

There needs to be greater emphasis—in Taiwan specifically, but also more generally—on the stated intentions and tactical considerations of entities within the PLA and the Chinese government charged with carrying out social media interference. The hope is that this article has provided an example of the range and depth of publicly available, primary source material on official Chinese thinking on social media manipulation against Taiwan and encouraged further exploration of these materials.

A shift from an overreliance on outputs to a more balanced view that incorporates inputs can promote more substantial debates and establish a firmer foundation to inform policy discussions. Such an approach would place less weight on outcomes, which inherently assume that one party has benefited and are contentious against the backdrop of elections, instead placing more emphasis on better understanding the actual threats and how to best combat them.”

 

5. A 35-year CIA veteran explains what China's up to around Taiwan and what the US should do about it

Business Insider · by John Culver and Ryan Hass

Excerpt: “US policy for Taiwan should follow the Tsai administration's example of basing its legitimacy on the vibrant quality of its democracy and economic freedom. There are an array of steps the United States can take with regard to Taiwan on trade, multinational democratic forums, health policy, and even security affairs that neither stretch Washington's standard invocation of the Three Communiques, the Taiwan Relations Act, and other assurances nor risk abandonment.

And especially with regard to US security policy toward Taiwan, cooperation with Taipei should focus on steps that make a use-of-force decision by Beijing a difficult one, fraught with risk, that relies less on big-ticket, budget-busting weapons purchases and more on public determination and capacity to resist military force.

This should include US advice and assistance to enhance the credibility of Taiwan's military as a Taiwanese institution, not a legacy of the Chinese civil war that enforced martial law on the island until the late 1980s. Building public trust in the Taiwan military is essential to overco

 

6. In a dramatic turnaround, China has started to lose the Covid Cold War

The Telegraph · by Georgina Hayes

Excerpts: “To solve these massive long-term problems, the CCP needs to liberalise and open up. Instead, Xi Jinping has doubled down on building an isolationist totalitarian superstate. By contrast, European and American firms are set to power unexpectedly buoyant recoveries; a more dynamic capitalist environment has forced them to adapt to the new post-Covid world, shedding costs and changing their business models as required. Centre-Left politicians who have convinced themselves that recovery can only be engineered by generous handouts and aggressive state projects should take note.

There is much we can learn from China's values – its hunger and energy and innate investment in the future, rather than just the present (which share the same tense in Mandarin). But if it fails to learn, in  turn, from the West that freedom is crucial to progress, the resurgent Middle Kingdom may yet turn out to be a stillborn superpower.”

 

7. No Release for Ex-Officer Guilty in 'Fatal Vision' Murders

military.com · by Gary D. Robertson · April 11, 2021

Will we ever know for sure what happened that night at Fort Bragg?

 

8. Georgetown Law Professor Decries ‘Maoist Takeover’ of Academia

National Review Online · by Ed Whelan · April 12, 2021

Here's the link to a most provocative essay that is the subject of the article.  

 

9. China’s Message to America: We’re an Equal Now

WSJ · by Lingling Wei and Bob Davis

Excerpts: “America’s chaotic pandemic response, followed by a summer of racial upheaval and the Jan. 6 Capitol storming, solidified his faith in the Chinese system’s superiority, Chinese officials say. In internal meetings, they say, he compares American democracy to “a sheet of loose sand” and declares that the one-party system allows him to get things done.

With Mr. Biden in the White House, China has continued a hard-line approach, signaling that companies not following Beijing’s rules will lose access to the Chinese market. Swedish clothing brand Hennes & Mauritz AB recently met with a strong social-media rage and consumer boycott in China over its stance against sourcing cotton from Xinjiang. Chinese authorities have restricted military personnel and employees of certain state-owned companies from using electric vehicles made by America’s Tesla Inc., citing national-security risks including concerns about the cars’ cameras. H&M declined to comment. Tesla, which didn’t respond to requests for comment, said last week that its cameras aren’t activated outside North America.

“Nobody has forced them to stay in China,” Mr. Yang said in Anchorage, regarding U.S. companies doing business in China.

 

10. DoD’s New Pushback Against Chinese Money In US Defense Industry

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

Excerpts: “There currently is no centralized mandate or guidance for what needs to be done across the DoD to get their arms around the problem, and there is no dedicated funding in the budget to re-shore some manufacturing capabilities. But Slotkin and Gallagher’s urgent push to remedy that in the 2022 budget could change that, if they manage to cut through the cacophony of voices during this year’s defense spending debate.

For Dougherty, “it’s pretty clear” what DoD needs to begin to work its way out of the problem. “They just need leadership, a centralized approach…and things like centralized data and centralized reporting,” to grapple with the depth of the problem.

If some sort of conflict does arise and supply chains are put at risk, Dougherty said, “the proactive, nefarious work coming from China and Russia in particular [will make US policymakers] “realize that we don’t have control over everything that we think we have control over.”

DoD’s New Pushback Against Chinese Money In US Defense Industry

"The proactive, nefarious work coming from China and Russia in particular [will make US policymakers] “realize that we don't have control over everything that we think we have control over,” Tara Murphy Dougherty, CEO of Govini said

 

11.  Options to Ensure the Best Indo-Pacific Policy in the U.S. Department of Defense

divergentoptions.org · by Chandler Myers · April 12, 2021

 

12. What Maps Can Tell Us About U.S. Strategy for Europe and Asia

19fortyfive.com · by James Holmes · April 12, 2021

Despite the norm of digital maps there is still no substitute for paper maps and globes.

Interesting analysis from Professor Holmes.

 

13. The Quad (finally) delivers: Can it be sustained?

lowyinstitute.org · by Susan Thornton

Excerpts:Two key factors, though, are likely to determine the Quad’s staying power above others. The first is the degree to which the Quad can forge a reputation for producing positive-sum outcomes. Without an alternate rationale for what this particular four-country grouping can do, its salient identity will be as a nakedly anti-China bloc. India in particular will be uncomfortable with this, as was demonstrated by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s insistence that that group “stand for something and not just against something”, and by the non-mention of China in the summit’s joint statement.

But if the Quad’s raison d’être is provision of public goods and mobilising synergies on global issues, not only do member countries stand to benefit, but Chinese objections will fall flat. The initial “deliverable” of a pooled investment in Indian vaccine production capacity is right on target, but following this with further outcomes on climate change and technology cooperation will likely be more difficult. If, however, the Quad can push in the laudable direction of raising India’s global engagement while expanding its marketplace and support network, the Quad brand will remain resilient in the face of future potential pressures.

Which brings us to the final point: if China continues to show its teeth and bully others, the Quad is more likely to be sustained. If, on the other hand, China demonstrates restraint, it will be harder to keep it going.

 

14. The Military, Police, and the Rise of Terrorism in the United States

csis.org · by Seth G. Jones, Catrina Doxsee, and Grace Hwang · April 13, 2021

A somewhat optimistic conclusion: "Despite these challenges, one reason for hope is the low number of deaths from domestic terrorism. Terrorism from violent far-right and far-left extremists has not killed many Americans—at least not recently. This could change, of course, as Timothy McVeigh illustrated in 1995. Terrorism expert Brian Jenkins once wrote that “terrorism is theater” and “terrorists want a lot of people watching, not a lot of people dead.”73 These aphorisms may not have been true of al-Qaeda and Islamic State adherents, as Jenkins recognized.74 But the data certainly raise questions about how far most domestic terrorists are willing to go today."

The PDF can be downloaded here.

The methodology can be downloaded here

 

15. What America’s Vaccination Campaign Proves to the World

defenseone.com · by Anne Applebaum

Excerpts: “But an opportunity for the U.S. might lie precisely here, in the authoritarian drive to politicize the vaccines. The best answer to Russian and Chinese strongmen who offer thousands of vaccines to countries that say nice things about them is to flood the market with millions of American doses, helping everyone regardless of what they say about the U.S. or anyone else. After Trump, the American political system won’t win much admiration again anytime soon. But if American democracy is no longer a trusted product, American efficiency could be once again. Within a matter of weeks, a majority of American adults will have had their first dose of a vaccine. What if the U.S. then begins to pivot from mass-vaccinating its own citizens to mass-vaccinating the rest of the world? Americans can’t do social trust, but we can do vaccines, plus the military logistics needed to distribute them: planes, trucks, cold-storage chains. The best cure for propaganda and disinformation is real-life experience: If people see that the vaccines work, they will eventually get one. We can end the global pandemic, improve the economy for everybody, protect ourselves and everyone else, and create the relationships that can help us deal with crises to come.

The U.S. might even have an opportunity to turn a mass-delivery effort into something more permanent. If the World Health Organization has become too bureaucratic and too reliant on China to enjoy the complete confidence of the rest of the world, then let’s use this moment to build COVAX into something new, something more trustworthy: an institution that provides smarter delivery systems, more efficient biomedical cooperation, and links among production centers in Europe, India, Africa, and elsewhere in the world. Vaccine nationalism is small-minded, self-centered, and ultimately self-defeating, because COVID-19 will not cease to be a problem until no one has it. This is the moment to think big, the moment for generosity and big ideas. As our massive logistical investment in refrigerated transport begins to pay off, the question for Americans is not just how we can enter the game, but how we can change it.

 

16. Fulfilling Our Duty to Afghan and Iraqi Interpreters Is a Matter of Honor—and of National Security

mwi.usma.edu · by Douglas Livermore · April 13, 2021

Excerpts:The past management of SIV program is a national embarrassment. Afghan and Iraqi interpreters have served bravely right alongside American men and women in intense combat throughout these wars, and the SIV program was supposed to honor and repay them for their sacrifices. Yet execution of the SIV program proved to be very far from the original vision, as under-resourcing, apathy, and immorally long delays further endangered these allies and their families.

After years of ineffectual attempts to reform the program there now is a chance to finally satisfy our responsibilities to our Afghan and Iraqi comrades. The Biden administration’s order to review and recommend changes to the SIV program provides the highest-level emphasis necessary for executive and legislative action. There is every expectation that these recommendations, if enacted, will ensure proper resourcing, oversight, and execution of the SIV program. Most fundamentally, implementing such recommended reforms and improving the SIV program will both fulfill our moral obligations and support our long-term national security interests.

 

17. US Needs to Show Its Willingness to Defend Taiwan 

spectator.org · by Francis P. Sempa · April 13, 2021

The "Asiatic Mediterranean?"

Excerpts: “In 1972, the U.S. and communist China issued the Shanghai Communiqué, which weakened U.S. ties to Taiwan for strategic reasons. Then, President Nixon wisely exploited the growing Sino–Soviet rift, and China became a de facto ally in containing the Soviet Union. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Once the Soviet empire collapsed, the strategic logic of the Communiqué ended, but successive U.S. administrations acted as if it didn’t. As China’s rise accelerated in the 21st century, the U.S. slowly strengthened its ties to Taiwan without abandoning the substance of the Communiqué.

But even when China was our de facto ally against the Soviet Union, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act (1979), which provides that “It is the policy of the United States … to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means … a threat to the security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.” That act also allowed the U.S. to provide “defensive” arms to Taiwan and “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan.”

We are in a Cold War with Communist China. It is high time to once and for all abandon the Shanghai Communiqué and make it unmistakably clear to China that we will defend Taiwan if China attacks.

 

18. How Biden Will—and Won’t—Battle the Pentagon

Foreign Policy · by Mark Perry · April 12, 2021

Excerpts: “Biden retains the fears that he expressed during the Obama years—that, in the end, a president can be rolled by those in uniform.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt that we’re in the midst of a civilian-military crisis,” said retired U.S. Army Col. Andrew Bacevich, a West Point graduate and president of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft (where I also work). “It undermines, it erodes the single most important pillar of democracy that we have as a nation. That crisis has to be the first thing on the new president’s agenda.”

Eaton, the retired Army major general, remains confident that Biden’s fundamental decency, his experience as a contentious skeptic during the Obama years, his appointment of Austin as defense secretary, his focus on diplomacy over intervention, and his intellect will help resolve the problem. “Smart soldiers will always follow smart commanders,” Eaton said. “And the view in the military is that, no matter what they might think about his policies, Biden is smart.”

Then, too, Biden retains the fears that he expressed during the Obama years—that an inexperienced president might be unduly influenced by the military’s ever confident, can-do mentality. That, in the end, a president can be rolled by those in uniform. Biden’s constant doubts, relentless questioning, and privately expressed niggling at the military’s claims during that era left an indelible impression. “The military doesn’t [screw] around with me,” he reportedly told aides as vice president. “I’ve been around too long.” Put simply, the military and its officers were able to defy Trump because he was in awe of them.

 

19. US spy chiefs to warn of threats from SolarWinds to North Korea

theedgemarkets.com · April 13, 2021

Excerpts: “Now, Biden’s intelligence team -- including Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and CIA Director William Burns -- is under increasing pressure to respond to a widening series of national security threats while defending the administration’s continuing reviews and policy approaches even as it nears the 100-day mark in office.

“This hearing is particular timely because those threats are rapidly evolving, with a rising great power competition with China, an increased threat from domestic violent extremism, nuclear dangers arising from nations like Iran and North Korea, and destabilizing impacts of cross-border threats like climate change and pandemic disease,” House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff, a California Democrat, said in a statement.

Biden has vowed that his intelligence officials won’t face pressure to abandon their independent assessments of America’s threats. He has pledged that Haines will be a “fierce advocate for telling the truth and leveling with the decision-makers.” In her confirmation hearing, Haines said that someone in her post “must never shy away from speaking truth to power -- even, especially, when doing so may be inconvenient or difficult.”

 

20. Seventh Fleet move a reminder that Quad must remain a group of equals, not a US-led posse

theprint.in · by Prakash Menon · April 13, 2021

A view from India.  

 

21. FDD | Turkey’s Courtship with China Spells Trouble for Uyghurs

fdd.org · by Aykan Erdemir and Umut Can Fidan· April 12, 2021

 

22. Striking the Right Balance: How Russian Information Operations in the Baltic States Should Inform US Strategy in Great Power Competition

mwi.usma.edu · by Sandor Fabian and Janis Berzins · April 12, 2021

 

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Just a reminder:

George F. Kennan defined political warfare as “the logical application of Clausewitz’s doctrine in time of peace.” While stopping short of the direct kinetic confrontation between two countries’ armed forces, “political warfare is the employment of all the means at a nation's command… to achieve its national objectives.” A country embracing Political Warfare conducts “both overt and covert” operations in the absence of declared war or overt force-on-force hostilities. Efforts “range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures…, and ‘white’ propaganda to such covert operations as clandestine support of ‘friendly’ foreign elements, ‘black’ psychological warfare and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states.” See George Kennan, "Policy Planning Memorandum." May 4, 1948.

http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/johnson/65ciafounding3.htm 

 

 Political warfare is the use of political means to compel an opponent to do one's will, based on hostile intent. The term political describes the calculated interaction between a government and a target audience to include another state's government, military, and/or general population. Governments use a variety of techniques to coerce certain actions, thereby gaining relative advantage over an opponent. The techniques include propaganda and psychological operations (PSYOP), which service national and military objectives respectively. Propaganda has many aspects and a hostile and coercive political purpose. Psychological operations are for strategic and tactical military objectives and may be intended for hostile military and civilian populations. Smith, Paul A., On Political War (Washington: National Defense University Press, 1989)

 https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a233501.pdf

 

"No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform pattern of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance."

- Alan Bullock, British historian

 

 

 

04/13/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Tue, 04/13/2021 - 9:01am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Inside N. KoreaKim Jong-un regime orders emergency import of medicines:Medical care collapses due to trade restrictions by COVID-19, causing many deaths.

2. North Korea’s Leader Warns of Famine

3. North Korea Mobilizes Women to Solve Construction Labor Shortage

4. Former Moon advisor says S. Korea can’t secure peace if it stands with US

5. White House set to nominate first woman secretary of the Army

6. The rise of domestic extremism in America

7. Countering the Risks of North Korean Nuclear Weapons

8. China's ex-ambassador to Britain named top envoy on Korean Peninsula affairs

9. South Korea’s leaflet ban draws international condemnation on human rights grounds

10. US hearing on North Korea's human rights expected to anger Pyongyang

11. Moon to Meet Biden in May

12. Even With Seoul Paying More, America Can’t Afford to Defend South Korea

13. Moon orders new Marine Corps chief to protect fishermen near border

14. N. Korea begins construction on new political prisoner camp near uranium production facility

15. World watches North as Day of the Sun approaches, U.S. Congress holds hearing

16. North Korean diplomats expelled from Malaysia likely arrive in Beijing

17. N. Korea holds celebrations for founder's birthday in show of confidence in coronavirus handling

18. Outgoing U.S. Indo-Pacific commander awarded top medal from S. Korea

19. N.K. paper calls for establishing company specialized in coastline protection facilities

 

1. Inside N. KoreaKim Jong-un regime orders emergency import of medicines:Medical care collapses due to trade restrictions by COVID-19, causing many deaths.

asiapress.org

More indicators that we must observe and assess.

 

2. North Korea’s Leader Warns of Famine

hrw.org · by Lina Yoon · April 12, 2021

Conclusion: “Kim’s warning may be yet another attempt to take advantage of the Covid-19 pandemic to further tighten his grip on power. The 1990s famine not only killed multitudes but also undermined the government’s repressive rule, as survivors learned to evade food supply programs and set up their own illicit markets. Kim may be using the pandemic to take the country back to when there was an entirely closed border and very few imports. This allowed the government to completely control the distribution of food and supplies while also prohibiting the population from accessing any information not sanctioned by the government from inside or outside the country.”

That is more than arduous. It is terrifying.

 

3. North Korea Mobilizes Women to Solve Construction Labor Shortage

rfa.org· by Jeong Yon Park · April 12, 2021

It is the women of north Korea who have proven the most resilient and are responsible for the survival of families through the Arduous March of 1994-1996. But if the regime is going to drag them away from their family responsibilities they are going to create suffering on a scale greater than 1994-1996 and it could lead to internal instability.

 

4.  Former Moon advisor says S. Korea can’t secure peace if it stands with US

Hani · April 12, 2021

Moon Chung-in will put the ROK at grave risk with his advice.  These are very dangerous ideas.

 

5. White House set to nominate first woman secretary of the Army

Defense News · by Jen Judson · April 12, 2021

History.

 

6. The rise of domestic extremism in America

The Washington Post · by Robert O'Harrow Jr., Andrew Ba Tran, and Derek Hawkins · April 12, 2021

Please go to the link to view the graphics.  

 

7. Countering the Risks of North Korean Nuclear Weapons

RAND · April 13, 2021

I participated in this event last evening and I was a reviewer on this report.

The 120 report can be downloaded here.

 

I am reminded of Sir Lawrence Freedman: "Deterrence works. Until it doesn't." This reports looks at the way north Korea will likely employ nuclear weapons during armistice and conflict. It makes a number of provocative recommendations and provides some unique analysis that is worthy of study and reflection.

 

8. China's ex-ambassador to Britain named top envoy on Korean Peninsula affairs

upi.com · Elizabeth Shim · April 12, 2021

As we wait to learn who will be the US Special Representative for north Korea.

What does it mean for China policy toward Korea? After all, personnel is policy. 

Excerpts: “In 2017, Liu wrote an editorial published in The Telegraph that claimed China does not hold the "master key" to the "North Korean crisis," after former President Donald Trump threatened "fire and fury" against North Korea.

"China is ready to help, but you cannot put out a fire if someone continues to pour oil over it -- or find fault with or even frustrate firefighting efforts," Liu said at the time.

 

9. South Korea’s leaflet ban draws international condemnation on human rights grounds

onekoreanetwork.com · April 13, 2021

This will be a very interesting hearing. Details here.   

Here are the witnesses:

Panel I

Gordon G. Chang, Author, Losing South Korea and Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World

  • Hon. Inho Lee, Former Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to the Russian Federation under President Kim Dae Jung and Professor Emerita of Seoul National University
  • John Sifton, Asia Advocacy Director, Human Rights Watch
  • Suzanne Scholte, Seoul Peace Prize Laureate and Chair, North Korea Freedom Coalition
  • Jessica Lee, Senior Research Fellow for East Asia, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

 

10. US hearing on North Korea's human rights expected to anger Pyongyang

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo  · April 13, 2021

Yes I think holding the human rights hearing on April 15 (Kim Il Sung's birthday) is a great way to "honor" the most despotic regime in the modern era that is guilty of crimes against humanity against the Korean people living in the north.

 

11. Moon to Meet Biden in May

english.chosun.com · April 13, 2021

Note: Biden meets Suga in Washington this Friday.

 

12. Even With Seoul Paying More, America Can’t Afford to Defend South Korea

Foreign Policy · by Doug Bandow · April 12, 2021

Dangerous words from Mr. Bandow: “Washington officials constantly talk of North Korea as a threat to the United States. It is not. North Korea is a threat to South Korea and the U.S.-South Korean alliance, which is very different. That can be easily remedied by the United States—by leaving the ever-stronger South to take over its own defense.”

Following his advice will lead to conflict in Northeast Asia and that will have a direct impact on the American people.

 

13. Moon orders new Marine Corps chief to protect fishermen near border

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · April 13, 2021

This is not a new threat.

 

14.  N. Korea begins construction on new political prisoner camp near uranium production facility - Daily NK

dailynk.com · Seulkee Jang · April 13, 2021

For all those who criticize me for saying human rights is a national security issue - this is one reason why. The north uses its slave labor (prisoners) for uranium mining to support its nuclear program and other illicit activities.

Excerpts: “The authorities plan to send the prisoners to uranium mines and processing facilities to produce uranium concentrate immediately after they enter the camp, based on the source’s account.

According to the source, the Pyongsan Uranium Concentrate Plant needs more manpower to expand uranium-related production, so the authorities decided to mobilize prisoners to supplement the labor shortage.”

And note this: “There are also rumors of North Korea smuggling concentrated uranium produced in Pyongsan to Iran, Syria, Qatar, and Egypt, which lend weight to claims that North Korean authorities are expanding the production of concentrated uranium.

In fact, Daily NK’s source claimed that North Korea is smuggling uranium ore in addition to concentrated uranium.

“As far as I know, China requested uranium ore, not concentrated uranium,” the source explained. “It’s not just that China doesn’t trust North Korea’s refinement capabilities. This way, they can also get uranium ore for a lower price.”

 

15. World watches North as Day of the Sun approaches, U.S. Congress holds hearing

Koreajoongdaily · by Yoo Jee-Hye, Park Hyun-Ju, and Sarah Kim · April 13, 2021

Will this result in a north Korean provocation? I will not predict one but I would not rule one out.

 

16.  North Korean diplomats expelled from Malaysia likely arrive in Beijing

thejakartapost.com · by The Jakarta Post · April 13, 2021

The question is will north Korea and Malaysia eventually return to the status quo? It is in both their financial interests to do so.

Excerpts: “North Korea had apparently used Malaysia as a hub to raise money for leader Kim Jong Un and his government in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions, as its citizens had been allowed to enter the Southeast Asian nation without visa.

Before leaving the embassy in Kuala Lumpur, North Korean Charge d'Affaires Kim Yu Song read out a statement in which he slammed Malaysia for being "subservient" to the United States and laid all responsibility at the country's feet.”

 

17. N. Korea holds celebrations for founder's birthday in show of confidence in coronavirus handling

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 13, 2021

The only thing we can really have confidence is that the regime continues to be able to control the narrative about COVID.

 

18. Outgoing U.S. Indo-Pacific commander awarded top medal from S. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 13, 2021

 

19. N.K. paper calls for establishing company specialized in coastline protection facilities

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 13, 2021

A major threat to the north is mother nature.

 

-------------

 

Just a reminder:

George F. Kennan defined political warfare as “the logical application of Clausewitz’s doctrine in time of peace.” While stopping short of the direct kinetic confrontation between two countries’ armed forces, “political warfare is the employment of all the means at a nation's command… to achieve its national objectives.” A country embracing Political Warfare conducts “both overt and covert” operations in the absence of declared war or overt force-on-force hostilities. Efforts “range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures…, and ‘white’ propaganda to such covert operations as clandestine support of ‘friendly’ foreign elements, ‘black’ psychological warfare and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states.” See George Kennan, "Policy Planning Memorandum." May 4, 1948.

http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/johnson/65ciafounding3.htm 

 

 Political warfare is the use of political means to compel an opponent to do one's will, based on hostile intent. The term political describes the calculated interaction between a government and a target audience to include another state's government, military, and/or general population. Governments use a variety of techniques to coerce certain actions, thereby gaining relative advantage over an opponent. The techniques include propaganda and psychological operations (PSYOP), which service national and military objectives respectively. Propaganda has many aspects and a hostile and coercive political purpose. Psychological operations are for strategic and tactical military objectives and may be intended for hostile military and civilian populations. Smith, Paul A., On Political War (Washington: National Defense University Press, 1989)

 https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a233501.pdf

 

"No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform pattern of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance."

- Alan Bullock, British historian

 

 

 

 

 

04/12/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Mon, 04/12/2021 - 1:07pm

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. Blackout Strikes Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran

2. The United States Considers Reinforcing Its ‘Pacific Sanctuary’

3. America’s Oldest Asian Ally, Overlooked

4. FDD | Ukraine Calls Out Iran’s Lack of Transparency in Airliner Case

5. U.S. will send more ships to South China Sea, Philippines Ambassador says

6. FDD | Austin Makes First Trip to Israel as Defense Secretary

7. A Closer Look at Israel’s New High-Tech Barrier

8. US accused of 'cognitive warfare' over 'unusual' Navy photo

9. Biden administration plans to name former senior NSA officials to White House cyber position and head of CISA

10. China builds advanced weapons systems using American chip technology

11. Building a wall of denial against gray-zone aggression

12. UN chief warns that use of IEDs is increasing globally

13. Opinion | AI companies are enabling genocide in China

14. JAIC director: With flat budgets, turn to AI to save money

15. Developing a counterinsurgency strategy that actually works

16. Putin vs. the Press

17. Special Operations News Update - Monday, April 12, 2021 | SOF News

 

1. Blackout Strikes Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran

The New York Times · by Ronen Bergman, Rick Gladstone and Farnaz Fassihi, and Gerry Mullany · April 11, 2021

Two fundamental tenets of unconventional warfare are subversion and sabotage.

 

2. The United States Considers Reinforcing Its ‘Pacific Sanctuary’

warontherocks.com · by Wallace C. Gregson, Jr. and Jeffrey W. Hornung · April 12, 2021

Excerpt: "While it is still unknown what results the posture review will bring, the recent 2+2 meeting in Tokyo demonstrated that the alliance is stronger than ever given the common positions shown on China and the need to find ways to bolster the alliance. That strength, combined with an increased proactiveness by Japan, means that it is possible that Japan could see an uptick in U.S. military presence after this review is complete. One thing is clear. If the words of the late Sen. Mike Mansfield were true in the past, that the “U.S.-Japan relationship was the cornerstone of stability in the Far East and in the world, bar none,” the regional challenges that the alliance faces now may make that sentiment even truer today."

 

3. America’s Oldest Asian Ally, Overlooked

WSJ · by Michael George DeSombre

Conclusion: "Thailand is strategically positioned in the middle of Asean, and Asean is at the heart of U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. As the Biden administration develops its foreign policy and national-security strategy, it should leave no doubt of its commitment to the country’s oldest ally in Asia."

 

4. FDD | Ukraine Calls Out Iran’s Lack of Transparency in Airliner Case

fdd.org · by Toby Dershowitz and Dylan Gresik· April 9, 2021

Excerpts: “In its recent statement, the Ukrainian government said it “will not accept any version of the PS752 [downing] that has been voiced but not confirmed by real evidence.” As such, Ukraine has moved “even closer” to elevating the issue under provisions of the Montreal Convention of 1971, according to Andriy Shevchenko, Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada. The convention – to which both Ukraine and Iran are party – concerns criminal liability and financial compensation in the destruction of civilian aircraft.

Ukraine may soon decide to initiate the process of negotiations, arbitration proceedings, and, if necessary, the elevation of the dispute to the International Court of Justice. While the United States is not party to the court, the Biden administration should publicly voice its support for Ukraine to hold the Islamic Republic accountable at the international level. Regardless of the status of ongoing nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, Biden should stand firm with U.S. allies and partners in the face of Iran’s continued transgressions in the case of PS752.

 

5. U.S. will send more ships to South China Sea, Philippines Ambassador says

Newsweek · by Anders Anglesey · April 11, 2021

I guess the Ambassador is privy to our force deployment decision. I hope he is not speaking out of school here.

 

6. FDD | Austin Makes First Trip to Israel as Defense Secretary

fdd.org · by Bradley Bowman· April 9, 2021

 

7. A Closer Look at Israel’s New High-Tech Barrier

realcleardefense.com · by Jacob Nagel and Jonathan Schanzer 

Excerpts: “Controversy also surrounds the military message that barriers send. Some in the IDF believe the construction of expensive and high-tech fences sends a message of weakness or a defensive posture. They argue that effective fences might prevent political leaders from taking decisive action during conflict, particularly if they feel the barrier might shield the country from a wider conflagration.

Barrier proponents argue these measures prevent terrorism and loss of life. The West Bank fence brought the number of suicide bombings to near zero. The Egypt border fence brought smuggling down to negligible numbers, too. As with Iron Dome, some argue that advanced fences give political leaders flexibility to decide exactly when and how to launch a military response to provocations.

As always, the debates will continue in Israel. But in the meantime, the Gaza border is likely safer -- until Hamas invents new ways to attack.

 

8. US accused of 'cognitive warfare' over 'unusual' Navy photo

au.news.yahoo.com · by Nick Whigham· April 11, 2021

"Cognitive warfare?"  How about just plain psychological warfare or psychological operations?

I saw another report that the photo has since been taken down which if true I think is a huge mistake.

Excerpts: “"In the photo, Commander Briggs looks very relaxed with his feet up watching the Liaoning ship just a few thousand yards away, while his deputy is also sitting beside him, showing they take their PLA counterparts lightly,” Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at Taiwan’s Naval Academy, told the SCMP.

"This staged photograph is definitely ‘cognitive warfare’ to show the US doesn’t regard the PLA (People's Liberation Army) as an immediate threat."

The aircraft carrier, USS Theodore Roosevelt, and its strike group, as well as the amphibious ship USS Makin Island are also operating in the South China Sea, US officials revealed.

 

9. Biden administration plans to name former senior NSA officials to White House cyber position and head of CISA

The Washington Post · by Ellen Nakashima  · April 12, 2021

 

10. China builds advanced weapons systems using American chip technology

The Washington Post · by Ellen Nakashima and Gerry Shih · April 09, 2021

As one of my War College students used to say back in 2010 - Chinese R&D is "steal to leap ahead."  No one should be surprised by this report.

 

11. Building a wall of denial against gray-zone aggression

AEI · by Elisabeth Braw · April 12, 2021

The 25 page report can be downloaded here

 

12. UN chief warns that use of IEDs is increasing globally

Stars and Stripes · by Edith Lederer · April 10, 2021

 

13. Opinion | AI companies are enabling genocide in China

The Washington Post · by  Michael Chertoff and N. MacDonnell Ulsch · April 12, 2021

Excerpts: “One response is for the United States to organize a coordinated effort to restrain the Chinese government’s ability to further develop AI for its predictive policing program — for example, by bolstering protections against intellectual property theft in this area, enacting punitive sanctions to discourage private technology companies from collaborating with Beijing, and publicly and forcefully decrying the complicity of such companies in the human rights catastrophe in Xinjiang.

To be successful, such an effort would need bipartisan support in Washington, to win cooperation from democratic partners around the world and to persuade the private sector through laws and regulations to act in its own long-term interests. Action on this scale is necessary and urgent to curb the Xi regime’s worst authoritarian instincts and minimize the human cost of its oppressive rule.

Opinion | AI companies are enabling genocide in China

 

14. JAIC director: With flat budgets, turn to AI to save money

c4isrnet.com · by Andrew Eversden · April 9, 2021

I am always leery about claims that technology can result in saving money.

 

15. Developing a counterinsurgency strategy that actually works

indianexpress.com · by Sajid Farid Shapoo · April 9, 2021

A view from India.  I remember being a fly on the wall for some general officer discussion back in 2008 or 2009 when the Indian Army Chief of Staff visited Fort Bragg.  I will never forget the comment he made about have 5000,000 Indian military and security personnel conducting counterinsurgency on a daily basis.   That is almost like employing the entire active duty US  Army.

Excerpt: “Indian counterinsurgency has to work with a dual objective of defeating the insurgents militarily and fully quell the insurgent impulses. This will need institutional overhauls. The conflict over the distribution of resources can be mended with economic development, but the bigger challenge would be to create a system where the tribal population feels that the government is representative, not repressive. Opening negotiation channels and policies like surrender and rehabilitation can give such a representative sense to the rebels that the government cares for them if they (rebels) are willing to shun the violent path. Lastly, the asymmetry in the distribution of power cannot solely be ironed out by just economic policies, it is critically important to create a system where the distribution of power is not controlled by the traditional elite.

 

16. Putin vs. the Press

FDD · by Clifford D. May April 9, 2021

 

17. Special Operations News Update - Monday, April 12, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · April 12, 2021

 

-----------

 

“My congratulations to you personally for your part in the presentation today … The challenge of this old but new form of operations is a real one and I know that you and the members of your command will carry on for us and the free world in a manner which is both worthy and inspiring. I am sure that the green beret will be a mark of distinction in the trying times ahead.”

- Message from President Kennedy to General Yarborough, 11 April 1961

 

“One should become the master of one's mind rather than let one's mind master him.”
- Nichiren Daishonin

 

“Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education.”
 - Franklin D. Roosevelt

04/12/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Mon, 04/12/2021 - 12:51pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Former N. Korean child beggar runs for local election in U.K.

2. ‘Worst ever’ threat to Kim Jong Un’s rule

3.  U.S.,S. Korea: KN-23 shows irregular trajectory including pull-up maneuver

4. Iran Calls On South Korea To Release Funds Frozen Under US Sanctions

5. Korea's effort in Afghan reconstruction recognized

6. Ex-minister decries U.S. congressional hearing on anti-N.K. leafleting ban

7. North Korea transfers control of important military shipbuilding factory to Munitions Industry Department

8. Kim Il Sung birthday crackers are being sold in local markets before start of official distribution

9. S. Korea, U.S. closely watching N. Korean moves on SLBMs, new submarine: JCS

10. 'Never criticise the Dear Leader!' Kim executes official after 'rant' against Government

11. Is Mike Pompeo Clueless on North Korea?

12. [Editorial] Self-inflicted disgrace (South Korean Anti-leaflet law)

13. Moon's approval rating dips to record low of 33.4 pct: Realmeter

14. US military bases in Japan, South Korea ramp up coronavirus vaccinations

15. PM: S. Korea willing to help Iran advance dialogue for restoring nuclear deal

 

1. Former N. Korean child beggar runs for local election in U.K.

donga.com· April 12, 2021

Last week I listened to Professor Fahey talk about north Korean human rights.  One of the things she mentioned was that Koreans in the north have no examples to look up to because everything is focused on idolizing and deifying the Kim family regime.  This is one example that must get to the Korean people (as well as the other UK candidate as well as the South Korea legislators currently in office after their escapes from the north). This needs to be part of an information and influence campaign.

 

2.  ‘Worst ever’ threat to Kim Jong Un’s rule

asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider · April 12, 2021

Very important and comprehensive analysis on the north Korean situation from Daniel Sneider.  

If I were advising the command I would recommend that not only it focus on the indications and warnings for international instability, I would be conducting a review of all relevant crisis actions SOP measures and review contingency plans. 

This conclusion sums up why things may be different (and worse) than the 1990s: "What won’t change are the underlying problems that have now converged into a “worst-ever” threat to Kim Jong Un’s rule"

The underlying conditions and problems are exacerbated by Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions as well as the nature of the regime, its objectives, and strategy.

I will not predict if or when there might be internal instability in north Korea, only that if it does occur it will be catastrophic and we had better be prepared for it.

 

3. U.S.,S. Korea: KN-23 shows irregular trajectory including pull-up maneuver

donga.com · April 12, 2021

This is for warfighting and attacking the fat target of Camp Humphreys and Osan and Cheongju air bases.

Buried lede: "In the meantime, the three Aegis ships were not mobilized when the new missile was launched. Normally, one carries out missions while the other two are anchored for maintenance, but at the time of the missile launch, all three of them were anchored. Some point out that this could have been the reason why the radar failed to detect the missile early on and mistakenly judged the flying distance." 

I hope the ROK has more surveillance capabilities than one Aegis ship (3 to make 1).

 

4. Iran Calls On South Korea To Release Funds Frozen Under US Sanctions

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

This could cause ROK/US alliance friction. 

 

5. Korea's effort in Afghan reconstruction recognized

The Korea Times · by Kwon Mee-yoo · April 12, 2021

Something that has been below the radar.

Recall that South Korea is the first (and may be the only nation) to go from a major aid recipient to a major donor nation.

 

6. Ex-minister decries U.S. congressional hearing on anti-N.K. leafleting ban

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 12, 2021

Human rights are universal and we must stand up for them everywhere.  The Moon administration and ruling party made a huge error passing this legislation and they cannot get a pass on it.

 

7. North Korea transfers control of important military shipbuilding factory to Munitions Industry Department

dailynk.com· by Seulkee Jang · April 12, 2021

Additional information from my friend and mentor, Bob Collins:  

The Munitions Industry Department is subordinate to the Korean Workers' Party and is responsible for all weapons development. However, organizations connected to WMD come under the direct control of the MID. The reassignment of control of this October 3rd Factory is a sharp indicator of Kim regime's intent to put nukes on SLBM's. 

 

8. Kim Il Sung birthday crackers are being sold in local markets before start of official distribution

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · April 12, 2021

I am reminded of the old saying: "let them eat cake."  Though I am sure the Koreans in the north would be happy to have any food.

 

9. S. Korea, U.S. closely watching N. Korean moves on SLBMs, new submarine: JCS

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 12, 2021

 

10. 'Never criticise the Dear Leader!' Kim executes official after 'rant' against Government

Express · by John Varga · April 12, 2021

The nature of the Kim family regime.  Loyalty is everything.  And north Korea must be a no whining zone.

 

11. Is Mike Pompeo Clueless on North Korea?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · April 11, 2021

Mr. Bandow is an equal opportunity critic.  He has no love for anyone but he does appear to give some credit to former President Trump's unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy.  However, It failed like all other efforts not because of what we did or did not do (despite the pundits who call for appeasement). It failed because of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

Excerpt: "Give Trump credit, he created an opportunity for serious negotiation. However, he was utterly incapable of forging such a pact. Now Pompeo’s comments suggest that the secretary of state may have been no better prepared. And hence was lost one of the nation’s great diplomatic opportunities."

 

12. [Editorial] Self-inflicted disgrace (South Korean Anti-leaflet law)

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · April 11, 2021

The passing of this law gives the appearance of appeasement when you examine the north Korean threats and actions and the subsequent statements of South Korean officials and passage of the law.  The Moon administration and ruling party need to fix this.

 

13. Moon's approval rating dips to record low of 33.4 pct: Realmeter

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · April 12, 2021

Hardly a surprise giving the trend and the shellacking the ruling party took in the elections lasts week.

 

14. US military bases in Japan, South Korea ramp up coronavirus vaccinations

Stars and Stripes· by Matthew Burke · April 0912, 2021

 

15. PM: S. Korea willing to help Iran advance dialogue for restoring nuclear deal

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · April 12, 2021

A snarky comment:  How has the middleman function turned out with north Korea and the US?

 

---------

“My congratulations to you personally for your part in the presentation today … The challenge of this old but new form of operations is a real one and I know that you and the members of your command will carry on for us and the free world in a manner which is both worthy and inspiring. I am sure that the green beret will be a mark of distinction in the trying times ahead.”

- Message from President Kennedy to General Yarborough, 11 April 1961

 

“One should become the master of one's mind rather than let one's mind master him.”
- Nichiren Daishonin

 

“Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education.”
 - Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

 

04/11/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Sun, 04/11/2021 - 9:59am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Hybrid warfare, pandemic style

2. Inside the Fight for the Future of The Wall Street Journal

3. CCP Adviser Outlines Detailed Plan to Defeat US, Including Manipulating Elections

4. How a growing fight against a little-known ISIS affiliate pulled in US Green Berets and foreign mercenaries

5. Pentagon Launches Post-Insurrection Extremism Review

6. US intelligence report warns of increased offensive cyber, disinformation around the world

7. Lt. Col. Kenneth Dwyer throws out first pitch at Carlisle game to his son in ‘continuation of the story’ of recovery

8. ‘Clear the Capitol,’ Pence pleaded, timeline of riot shows

9. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Phone Call With Philippines Secretary

10. Lorenzana, US defense chief discuss VFA and West Philippine Sea

11. Northeast Asia power grid could slash cost of green energy, study finds

12. The New Nuances of the Nuclear Export Market

13. UK to Deploy Carrier to Indo-Pacific Region

14. How an Ohio bartender’s patriotism was warped by social media and a devotion to Trump, ending in conspiracy charges from the Capitol riots

 

1. Hybrid warfare, pandemic style

dailytimes.com.pk · by Ikram Sehgal · April 9, 2021

A view from Pakistan.

Excerpts:  “This new form of warfare, avoiding a clear differentiation between war and peace, soldiers and civilians, is practiced by all sides of the different divides

...

and strategies, to include the employment of irregular military and paramilitary forces like guerrillas, paramilitaries, etc. Islamic State, Hamas and Hizbullah use terrorist acts as a means. Use of non-violent means by civilian institutions include psychological assaults using ethnic, religious or national vulnerabilities, provocateurs operating behind enemy lines, economic assaults through sanctions, boycotts and punitive tariffs so as to weaken the enemy economy, cyber assaults at elections and referendums, use of big data for manipulation of referendums like Brexit and the US elections and a vast selection of propaganda warfare via electronic and social media, TV channels and publications. Diplomacy is as much involved into this new type of warfare as are fake news. With religious elements militating against vaccinations of any kind, all sorts of reasons are being aired not to take the jab.

The Russian military understanding of it as a Western ploy against the new Russia-China axis and use Hybrid Warfare to prevent implementation of Eurasian concept and Russia‘s return as a global power. Sun Tzu more than two thousand years ago wrote “Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”

In that sense the pandemic and the fight against it is going to re-enforce the new global power relations that have come up during the last twenty years. In anticipation of the 21stcentury we were thinking that this might be the century of peace and the end of so many wars, so far it has become the century of shifting centers of development from the former West (US and Europe) to Asia and even Eurasia – even if Europe prefers to ignore this for the time being. And this shifting of power relations is not going smoothly; old and new local conflicts are pushed into wars: Ukraine, Syria, Yemen, Nagorno Karabakh and others. Vaccination has become something as a new tool of hybrid warfare in this. The process of change is enduring as the pandemic has shown and the new alliances will strengthen, but it certainly will take time.

 

2. Inside the Fight for the Future of The Wall Street Journal

The New York Times · by Edmund Lee · April 10, 2021

The New York Times reports on the Wall Street Journal.

We all need to be concerned about the future of the entire Fourth Estate.

Excerpts: “One goal put forth by The Content Review seemed more attainable to many inside the paper than conjuring millions of new subscribers overnight: a greater effort to appeal to readers of color. In a meeting between the strategy team and high-level editors, Ms. Story spoke about trying to track the racial diversity of people quoted in Journal coverage. Most of those gathered for the discussion were white.

Everyone at the meeting said they agreed that The Journal should include more diverse voices. But how? Should they survey subjects about their background? A senior editor expressed concern about such a tack, according to two people who were briefed on the event, saying he was worried the paper might be sued if it came out that its reporters were passing over white people to quote Black people. (The company disputes the characterization of the meeting.)

Such comments illustrate how difficult it will be rewiring the staff to more modern methods of news gathering.

In a Feb. 22 memo to the staff, Mr. Murray endorsed including a wider variety of people in The Journal’s coverage, pledging to “properly capture the diversity of our society and speak to as wide an audience as possible.”

Mr. Latour has also been talking about the need for change. In a series of companywide meetings that started last summer, he emphasized the importance of The Journal’s digital transformation, but repeated a phrase that many took to mean he wanted a continued focus on business leaders and Wall Street elites. “We need to be digging into the brand,” he said, according to several staff members.

Mr. Latour never asked for a copy of The Content Review, according to two people familiar with the matter. It’s still unclear if he’s read it.

If he has, he would know that one key message contradicts the very approach he’s favoring: “We can’t think we’ve got a comfy base of digital subscribers who will be satisfied if we just keep doing what we’re doing.”

 

3. CCP Adviser Outlines Detailed Plan to Defeat US, Including Manipulating Elections

theepochtimes.com · by Nicole Hao · March 26, 2021

This is from the Epoch Times so we must take it with a grain of salt. 

Excerpts: “Jin Canrong, a professor and associate dean of the School of International Studies at Beijing’s Renmin University of China, explained the plan in a July 2016 speech on “Sino–U.S. Strategic Philosophy.” The speech, recently uncovered by The Epoch Times, was given over two full days at Southern Club Hotel Business Class in south China’s Guangzhou city.

“We want to be the world leader,” Jin said, explaining Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s desire for a “national rejuvenation” of the country.

Dubbed “teacher of the state” by Chinese netizens, Jin is a prominent scholar known for his fiery anti-U.S. rhetoric. He’s an adviser to several CCP organizations, including two powerful bodies, the Organization Department and the United Front Work Department, although it’s unclear how close he is to Xi.

Jin was also a visiting professor at the Gerald Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan, in 2003 and 2007.

 

4. How a growing fight against a little-known ISIS affiliate pulled in US Green Berets and foreign mercenaries

Business Insider · by J.W. Sotak

Excerpts: “For its efforts, ISIS can extend its reach to a new region — where ungoverned spaces further facilitate that expansion — and access valuable resources, profits from which can be redistributed to other needy franchises.

That violence and the stakes involved are why US Special Operations Command has tripled its forces in the province.

The response likely reflects a mix of political and commercial interests. Washington may see continued chaos in Cabo Delgado as a threat that will surely benefit ISIS and its operations in Africa. US firms may also be looking to secure access to the precious natural gas that foreign companies are already jockeying to exploit.

Mozambique is now on the list of African nations where the US is deeply involved. The fighting in Cabo Delgado is far from over, but what remains uncertain is whether the elite Green Berets and deadly drones they wield will be stymied like the Russians and South Africans before them.

 

5. Pentagon Launches Post-Insurrection Extremism Review

defenseone.com · by Ben Watson

Excerpts: “Though the numbers of extremism offenders are believed to be “small,” Kirby said the service secretaries, all of whom are Trump administration holdovers, have shared anecdotes from their ranks which “reinforced” with Austin “that this is a problem.”

Other, more tangible changes are afoot. Service secretaries of the military branches will create a way for outgoing troops to self-report being targeted or having “any potential contact with an extremist group,” though exactly how this will take shape is unclear. Other new changes involve “updat[ing] and standardiz[ing] screening questionnaires” for new recruits across every service, including to make clear that lying to recruiters could result in “punitive action for fraudulent enlistment.”

West Point and an Iraq war veteran Bishop Garrison will lead the working group’s efforts, which are to begin around next week. Bishop also serves as Austin’s Senior Advisor on Human Capital and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion. The first progress reports — along with “mid-term and long-term recommendations” are expected by mid-July.

“This is not about being the thought police… it’s about the behavior and the conduct that is inspired by or influenced by this kind of ideology,” Kirby said.

 

6. US intelligence report warns of increased offensive cyber, disinformation around the world

cyberscoop.com · by Shannon Vavra · April 8, 2021

Excerpts: “Global privacy paradigms also are on the verge of shifting, the report warns.

“Privacy and anonymity may effectively disappear by choice or government mandate, as all aspects of personal and professional lives are tracked by global networks,” the report states.

As more governments continue to gain control of surveillance capabilities, privacy will continue to erode, the report suggests.

“Authoritarian governments are likely to exploit increased data to monitor and even control their populations,” the assessment notes, going on to predict they “will exercise unprecedented surveillance capabilities to enforce laws and provide security while tracking and de-anonymizing citizens and potentially targeting individuals.”

Governments have already begun availing themselves of commercially available spying technology to target vulnerable individuals, according to researchers. Governments such as MoroccoSaudi Arabia and India are accused of using spyware to target dissidents, journalists and other vulnerable people.

 

7. Lt. Col. Kenneth Dwyer throws out first pitch at Carlisle game to his son in ‘continuation of the story’ of recovery

pennlive.com · by Edward Sutelan · April 10, 2021

An American who should inspire us.

 

8. ‘Clear the Capitol,’ Pence pleaded, timeline of riot shows

AP · by Lisa Mascaro, Ben Fox, and Lolita C. Baldor· April 10, 2021

A lot to parse here. This is quite a story. Some interesting timeline analysis. Anyone who has had to deal with crisis action will recognize the complexity of the challenges here. Others will armchair quarterback forever.

 

9. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Phone Call With Philippines Secretary

defense.gov  · April 10, 2021

 

10. Lorenzana, US defense chief discuss VFA and West Philippine Sea

philstar.com · by Franco Luna

An odd request on the vaccine issue.

 

11. Northeast Asia power grid could slash cost of green energy, study finds

SCMP · by Stephen Chen · April 11, 2021

A "super power grid."

Northeast Asia power grid could slash cost of green energy, study finds:

  • Regional network would enable long-distance transmission of renewable energy 
  • for about the same price as it costs to produce coal
  • China, Russia, Mongolia, South Korea and Japan consume about a third 
  • of the world’s energy combined

 

12. The New Nuances of the Nuclear Export Market

The National Interest · by Eunjung Lim · April 10, 2021

Conclusion: Working together, the United States and South Korea can build a brighter and safer future for nuclear power and for themselves.

 

13. UK to Deploy Carrier to Indo-Pacific Region

jakartaglobe.id

 

14. How an Ohio bartender’s patriotism was warped by social media and a devotion to Trump, ending in conspiracy charges from the Capitol riots

cleveland.com · by John Caniglia · April 11, 2021

A cautionary tale. 

 

------------

 

"In the moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing to do. The worst thing you can do is nothing." 

- Theodore Roosevelt

 

"It is high time the ideal of success should be replaced with the ideal of service."

- Albert Einstein

 

"True leadership is the art of changing a group from what it is into what it ought to be."

- Virginia Allan

 

04/11/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Sun, 04/11/2021 - 9:46am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Bolton: North Korea Unlikely to Denuclearize Under Kim

2. Google sees new trick in renewed North Korea cyber attacks

3. COVAX Vaccine Supply to N. Korea before May Unlikely

4. N. Korea marks 9th anniversary of Kim Jong-un's leadership with call for loyalty

5. S. Korea, U.S. authorities assess N.K. has completed building new 3,000-ton submarine: sources

6. Cheong Wa Dae denies report U.S. requested S. Korea join Quad

7. AstraZeneca vaccine rollout resumed, those under 30 excluded (South Korea)

8. A revolt by the young (South Korea Election)

9. Moon to reshuffle Cabinet as early as this week

10. North Korea's SLBM threat looms large

11. First Comes Iran, Then Comes North Korea

12. Beware the rise of state-sponsored cyberattacks

13. Kim warns North Korea faces famine horror similar to 90s crisis that left 'millions' dead

14. Intelligence Sources: North Korea Nears Completion of New Submarine

 

1. Bolton: North Korea Unlikely to Denuclearize Under Kim

voanews.com · by William Gallo

Not hyperbole: “Bolton said Pyongyang’s capacity to proliferate its nuclear weaponry is one of the imminent threats Washington must face.

“We do know this,” Bolton said. “If Iran made a wire transfer of a substantial amount of money to North Korea, they could have a North Korean nuclear warhead within a matter of days and so could anybody else with the same financial assets."

 

2. Google sees new trick in renewed North Korea cyber attacks

foxnews.com · by Brooke Crothers

Excerpts: “The blog contained analysis of publicly disclosed cyber vulnerabilities and included "guest" posts from "unwitting legitimate security researchers," in order to "build additional credibility with other security researchers," Google said.

After reaching out to targeted researchers, the cyber actors offered to collaborate on cybersecurity research, then provided a Microsoft program, Visual Studio Project, that contained malicious code, Google said.

Google also observed several cases where targeted researchers unwittingly installed malware after visiting a blog. "Shortly thereafter, a malicious service was installed on the researcher’s system," according to Google.

Even sophisticated researchers can fall for ploys by cyber criminals, Brian Martin, vice president of vulnerability Intelligence at Risk Based Security, told Fox News.

 

3. COVAX Vaccine Supply to N. Korea before May Unlikely

world.kbs.co.kr · April 11, 2021

 

4. N. Korea marks 9th anniversary of Kim Jong-un's leadership with call for loyalty

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 11, 2021

Even though every Korean in the north knows you do not survive or and certainly cannot thrive without demonstrating personal loyalty to Kim Jong-un and the regime must still call for loyalty. It is all the regime has: forced or fake loyalty.

 

5. S. Korea, U.S. authorities assess N.K. has completed building new 3,000-ton submarine: sources

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 11, 2021

Excerpts: “"Both South Korea and U.S. intelligence authorities made the assessment that North Korea has already finished building the 3,000-ton submarine unveiled in July 2019," according to sources.

"The authorities assess that North Korea is reviewing the right timing to roll out the submarine for a strategic effect, including maximizing pressure against the United States," a source said.

The source added that the North could reveal the submarine at a launching ceremony and actually roll out an SLBM, such as the Pukguksong-3.

 

6. Cheong Wa Dae denies report U.S. requested S. Korea join Quad

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 11, 2021 

I doubt we did. I believe South Korea knows full well our position and recommendation and there is no reason to make a request. Korea knows it has an open invitation because it is a like minded democracy that supports the rules-based international order.  I think the diplomats and national security professionals in the administration know that South Korea has to make the decision without coercion (by the US - the PRC's action could cause a kind of reverse coercion). As much as we believe it is very much in South Korea's interests it is a conclusion South Korea leaders must reach on their own.

 

7. AstraZeneca vaccine rollout resumed, those under 30 excluded (South Korea)

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · April 11, 2021

 

8. A revolt by the young (South Korea Election)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Lee Jung-min

Interesting analysis of the recent election.

Excerpt: “That’s an astounding turnaround in Korea’s election history. In the parliamentary elections just a year ago, the young generation voted against the PPP citing its image as an old party of corruption. At the time, 56 percent of voters in their 20s — and 61 percent of those in their 30s — gave overwhelming support to the DP, while only 32 percent of the first group and 30 percent of the second group voted for the United Future Party, the predecessor of the PPP. The younger generation was an ally loyal to the liberal DP since the election of Park Won-soon as Seoul mayor in the 2011 by-election.

After the DP’s sweeping victory in the parliamentary elections last April following the presidential election in May 2017 and local elections in June 2018, however, schisms began to appear in the solid alliance between the 20-30 generation and the liberal party because of all the hypocrisy and arrogance of the DP despite it championed fairness and justice. A revolt by the young generation has spread like magma erupting from a volcano since then. Members of the young group started shifting to Oh’s bandwagon one after another. On April 4, three days before the mayoral by-elections, I went to a rally staged by Oh’s supporters who gathered around the rear gate of Children’s Grand Park in eastern Seoul to share their feelings about the DP and government.

 

9. Moon to reshuffle Cabinet as early as this week

The Korea Times · April 11, 2021

Suffer an election defeat and fire your unelected cabinet members.

 

10. North Korea's SLBM threat looms large

The Korea Times · by Jung Da-min · April 11, 2021

As a reminder the response to this threat is NOT for South Korea to build a nuclear powered submarine.

 

11. First Comes Iran, Then Comes North Korea

ozy.com · by John McLaughlin · April 8, 2021

Kim Jong-un might like being 2d priority. He could react to this.

Conclusion: “The bottom line: The Biden team is right to give first priority to Iran, because it can still be deterred from the nuclear path that North Korea has already taken. But when the administration turns to North Korea later, it will have to include among its goals measures to guard against Pyongyang diluting or undoing whatever progress it may have made with Iran.”

 

12. Beware the rise of state-sponsored cyberattacks

The Spectator · by Arieh Kovler  · April 8, 2021

Especially from north Korea!

 

13. Kim warns North Korea faces famine horror similar to 90s crisis that left 'millions' dead

Express · by John Varga · April 11, 2021

Just take a step back from the immediate crisis in the north and think about how the Korean people in the north have suffered so much and yet have survived through decades of extreme hardship. The resilience of the Korean people in the north is a testament to the strength of human beings and their will to survive. We should have great respect for the people.

 

14. Intelligence Sources: North Korea Nears Completion of New Submarine

19fortyfive.com · by ByHarry Kazianis · April 11, 2021

 

------------

 

"In the moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing to do. The worst thing you can do is nothing." 

- Theodore Roosevelt

 

"It is high time the ideal of success should be replaced with the ideal of service."

- Albert Einstein

 

"True leadership is the art of changing a group from what it is into what it ought to be."

- Virginia Allan

04/09/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Fri, 04/09/2021 - 8:57am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. China’s Techno-Authoritarianism Has Gone Global

2.  A Tiny Particle’s Wobble Could Upend the Known Laws of Physics

3.  Sens. Menendez, Risch unveil bipartisan bill to counter China

4. Commerce Adds Seven Chinese Supercomputing Entities to Entity List for their Support to China’s Military Modernization, and Other Destabilizing Efforts

5. Capitol Rioters Face the Consequences of Their Selfie Sabotage

6. Cost Imposition: The Key to Making Great Power Competition an Actionable Strategy

7. Office of the Director of National Intelligence - Global Trends

8. China’s Arrogance Is Uniting Its Rivals

9. China accuses US of 'human rights sins' to distract from its genocide and other human rights abuses

10. Inside secret Syria talks aimed at freeing American hostages

11. Peter Thiel Calls Bitcoin ‘a Chinese Financial Weapon’ at Virtual Roundtable

12. Fort Hood brigade commander relieved for bullying and poor judgment

13. E Pluribus Unum – A Rallying Cry for National Service

14. Naval Postgraduate School faces big budget cuts and possible reorganization.

15. GAO report sees U.S. military readiness slipping

16. Video - SOCPAC JTF 510 in the Philippines - GSOF | SOF News

17. Analysis: Al Qaeda continues to operate throughout Afghanistan

18. General Orders No. 35 - ARMY SPECIAL FORCES BRANCH

19. Rigorous CFIUS Reviews Will Continue Under Biden: How to Prepare

20. China is right not to cave to US-imposed post-WW2 global order

21. The Cold War Is Being Rebooted and Rebranded

22. Biden admin bristles as China accuses U.S. of 'intimidation' tactics, claims ownership of Taiwan

23. ‘Untapped weapon’: Philippine leaders warn China by touting defense treaty with US

24. ‘Untapped weapon’: Philippine leaders warn China by touting defense treaty with US

 

1. China’s Techno-Authoritarianism Has Gone Global

Foreign Affairs · by Maya Wang · April 8, 2021

Conclusion: "The U.S.-Chinese competition over technology could shape the future. If Washington is serious about protecting privacy and promoting human rights, it should seize the initiative from China by upholding these standards for everyone who uses U.S. technology, domestically and around the world."

 

2. A Tiny Particle’s Wobble Could Upend the Known Laws of Physics

The New York Times · by Dennis Overbye · April 8, 2021

Excerpts: “There was pride that they had managed to perform such a hard measurement, and then joy that the results matched those from Brookhaven.

“This seems to be a confirmation that Brookhaven was not a fluke,” Dr. Carena, the theorist, said. “They have a real chance to break the Standard Model.”

Physicists say the anomaly has given them ideas for how to search for new particles. Among them are particles lightweight enough to be within the grasp of the Large Hadron Collider or its projected successor. Indeed, some might already have been recorded but are so rare that they have not yet emerged from the blizzard of data recorded by the instrument.

Another candidate called the Z-prime could shed light on some puzzles in the Big Bang, according to Gordan Krnjaic, a cosmologist at Fermilab.

The g-2 result, he said in an email, could set the agenda for physics in the next generation.

“If the central value of the observed anomaly stays fixed, the new particles can’t hide forever,” he said. “We will learn a great deal more about fundamental physics going forward.”

 

3. Sens. Menendez, Risch unveil bipartisan bill to counter China

Axios · by Orion Rummler

 

4. Commerce Adds Seven Chinese Supercomputing Entities to Entity List for their Support to China’s Military Modernization, and Other Destabilizing Efforts

Commerce Department · April 8, 2021

 

5.  Capitol Rioters Face the Consequences of Their Selfie Sabotage

The New York Times · by Elizabeth Williamson · April 6, 2021

These organizations will need to re-evaluate their operational security procedures.

 

6.  Cost Imposition: The Key to Making Great Power Competition an Actionable Strategy

mwi.usma.edu · by Doowan Lee · April 8, 2021

Excerpts: “To overcome these shortcomings, I offer a practitioner’s definition to concretize how we can strategize and operationalize the concept:

Great power competition is a state of antagonistic relations indicated by time, space, and material progression toward respective objective achievement between two or more great powers.

In this formulation, I posit that the main yardstick of great power competition is the temporally variable extent of a state’s competitive edge. The key is how to execute foreign policy in such a way as to create a favorable relative ratio of objective achievement over time.

...

In the end, this article hopes to begin a rigorous and feasible conversation for national security practitioners and planners to concretize the concept of great power competition. I offer three recommendations. First, we need to understand the CCP’s strategic priorities and policies better. Debates about the CCP’s strategic interests are driven by the most conspicuous issues. US policymakers should intimately appreciate the CCP’s grand strategy. More importantly we need to understand potential local and regional friction points to such objectives. Imposing disproportionate costs in short order will require taking advantage of emerging grievances against the CCP outside the mainland. Second, the United States should focus on countries where influence is tightly contested and the CCP is actively expanding its economic and military footprints. We see increasing local resistance to the CCP’s expansionist projects. Third, the United States should develop data-driven analytic processes to observe, measure, and track how different activities are in fact correlated with effective cost imposition in time, space, and material. Without such a system, it would be nearly impossible to optimize how we allocate our resources to outcompete the CCP. It is time that the United States established a means of measuring return of investment on great power competition.

With the Chinese economy likely to overtake that of the United States in the next seven years, the United States does not have a lot of time to learn how to practice great power competition effectively. The only way to sustain or expand American global leadership is to incorporate disproportionate cost imposition in every aspect of US foreign policy execution.”

 

7. Office of the Director of National Intelligence - Global Trends

dni.gov · by ODNI - NIC

You can access each section of the report at this link at the table of contents on the left side of the page.

Some new terminology and concepts to learn.

Five trends:

  1. major demographic shifts
  2. Human development
  3. environment
  4. several global economic trends
  5. Technology will offer the potential to mitigate problem

Five themes appear throughout this report and underpin this overall thesis:

  1. shared global challenges
  2. increasing fragmentation within communities
  3. disequilibrium
  4. greater contestation within communities, states, and the international community
  5. adaptation will be both an imperative and a key source of advantage for all actors in this world

 

8. China’s Arrogance Is Uniting Its Rivals

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · April 8, 2021

In any other time Xi's views and assessment of America might create some unity against an external threat but in the current tribal divide in the US I fear we will continue our damaging and dangerous infighting.

Excerpts: ”Xi doesn’t think much of America right now. In speeches, he has said that “the world is going through changes seen once in a century” as China rises and the U.S. falters. In a meeting with Joe Biden administration officials in Alaska last month, his diplomats ridiculed the idea that a divided, distracted America could speak to Beijing from a “position of strength.”

A country that has suffered more than 550,000 deaths from Covid-19, that saw its capitol sacked by its own citizens, and that spent four years under President Donald Trump lashing out at the international system, is in deep trouble, Chinese propaganda organs argue. Why shouldn’t Beijing push for advantage in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and many other fronts at once?

Conclusion: “Paradoxically, that’s not entirely good news for the U.S.: This realization could simply lead Xi to act more aggressively to reap the international gains he seeks — starting, perhaps, with forcible reunification with Taiwan.

This, unfortunately, is also a historical pattern. As Michael Beckley and I have written, revisionist powers become most aggressive when their growth slows, their strategic enmities multiply, and they discover that they have only a short period of time to achieve their goals. Imperial Germany fell into this trap before World War I, Imperial Japan did likewise before World War II, and China may be following the same trajectory today.

The scary reality of U.S.-China relations is that we may soon enter a period of even higher tensions. Overconfident autocrats who think the world is moving in their direction can be very dangerous. Desperate autocrats who suddenly realize that their window is closing can be more dangerous still.

 

9. China accuses US of 'human rights sins' to distract from its genocide and other human rights abuses

americanmilitarynews.com · by Ryan Morgan · April 8, 2021

Note our five "sins:"

Sin No.1:#Colonialism.

Sin No.2:#Racism.

Sin No.3: Exporting turmoil.

Sin No.4:Interventionism.

Sin No.5: Double standards.

 

10. Inside secret Syria talks aimed at freeing American hostages

spectrumlocalnews.com · by Associated Press Washington, D.C.

Excerpt: “My assumption is he’s alive and he’s waiting for me to come and get him," said Roger Carstens, a former Army Special Forces officer who attended the meeting with Patel in his capacity as U.S. special presidential envoy for hostage affairs under Trump. He was kept in the position by Biden.

“My job,” he added, "is to get Austin Tice back.”

 

11. Peter Thiel Calls Bitcoin ‘a Chinese Financial Weapon’ at Virtual Roundtable

Excerpts: “Thiel, the venture capitalist and conservative political donor, urged the U.S. government to consider tighter regulations on cryptocurrencies in an appearance on Tuesday. The statements seemed to represent a change of heart for Thiel, who is a major investor in virtual currency ventures as well as in cryptocurriences themselves.

“I do wonder whether at this point, Bitcoin should also be thought [of] in part as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S.,” Thiel said during an appearance at a virtual event held for members of the Richard Nixon Foundation. “It threatens fiat money, but it especially threatens the U.S. dollar.” He added: “[If] China’s long Bitcoin, perhaps from a geopolitical perspective, the U.S. should be asking some tougher questions about exactly how that works.”

 

12.  Fort Hood brigade commander relieved for bullying and poor judgment

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · April 8, 2021

I cannot recall a relief that specifically uses the term bullying before (although I am sure many have been relieved for bullying though it is usually couched in loss of trust and confidence or due to poor command climate).

 

13. E Pluribus Unum – A Rallying Cry for National Service

realcleardefense.com · by Steve Blank

Steve Blank definitely is provoking from thought. Hacking for defense is a very good program. I saw it in action at Georgetown under the guidance of Chris Taylor who brought it from Stanford.

 

14. Naval Postgraduate School faces big budget cuts and possible reorganization.

montereycountyweekly.com · by Pam Marino

Sure - let's cut education in times of budget austerity.

Do not forget General Schoomaker's adage - "train for certainty, educate for uncertainty."

As an aside since the retirement and then passing of Ike Skelton there is no congressional champion for professional military education.

 

15. GAO report sees U.S. military readiness slipping

washingtontimes.com · by Mike Glenn

Excerpts: “Every warfighting domain … is now contested as potential adversaries, most notably China and Russia, have developed and enhanced their own capabilities,” according to the report. “The GAO found that reported domain readiness did not meet readiness recovery goals identified by the military services.”

The Pentagon defines “readiness” as the ability of U.S. military forces to fight and meet the demands of assigned missions. The GAO investigators reviewed readiness recovery plans from the Pentagon and the individual military services for fighting on land, sea, in the air, in outer space and even in cyberspace. A global mission and lengthy deployments in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere have taken their toll, the GAO reported.

“We found that the military services had reported persistently low readiness levels, which they attributed to emerging and continued demands on their forces, reduced force structure and increased frequency and length of deployment,” the authors wrote.

 

16. Video - SOCPAC JTF 510 in the Philippines - GSOF | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · April 9, 2021

A very interesting video with Lt Gen Wurster and LTG Fridovich discussing our operations in the Philippines.

 

17. Analysis: Al Qaeda continues to operate throughout Afghanistan

longwarjournal.org · by Bill Roggio · April 8, 2021

Excerpt: :FDD’s Long War Journal has tracked al Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan for well over a decade, using press releases and public statements from the US military, NATO’s command in Afghanistan, and Afghan security services, as well as the jihadist groups’ own martyrdom statements. The data clearly shows that al Qaeda and allied terrorist groups have been operating on Afghan soil for the past two decades with the approval of the Taliban. These terrorist organizations often operate in areas controlled by the Taliban – and the jihadists killed in coalition or Afghan raids often die alongside members of the Afghan Taliban. Between 2007 and 2019, NATO, US, and Afghan forces, have launched at least 373 operations against these foreign terror groups in 27 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. Many of the raids against Al Qaeda and its allies have gone unreported.”

 

18. General Orders No. 35 - ARMY SPECIAL FORCES BRANCH

history.army.mil

34 years ago today Special Forces was established as an official branch of the US Army.

 

19. Rigorous CFIUS Reviews Will Continue Under Biden: How to Prepare

news.bloomberglaw.com · by Donald F. McGahn II, Schuyler J. Schouten, and Chad R. Mizelle

 

20. China is right not to cave to US-imposed post-WW2 global order

asiatimes.com · by Ken Moak · April 9, 2021

Wow. I have no words for this argument.

Excerpts: “The proceeds raised via QE were spent on bailing out businesses and banks deemed too big to fail, allowing them to continue operating. In this sense, the US was not practicing what it preached, strengthening the argument that it had set up “debt traps” as a way to prevent developing economies from developing.

A case in point is the US banning its technology firms from selling advanced chips to China, citing national-security reasons. The real motive, however, was to slow down if not kill Chinese technological progress. No country had ever complained about Chinese products posing a national-security threat until Trump decided to make it one, solely based on unproven or speculative evidence.

All said and done, China is right not to follow the US-imposed postwar world order. Indeed, it could even be argued that the communist country became what it is today because China defied US-style rules and values. For this reason, China will likely continue adhering to “socialism with Chinese characteristics” as its economic development and ideological architecture.

 

21. The Cold War Is Being Rebooted and Rebranded

The Nation · by William Astore · April 9, 2021

 

22. US Navy Conducts Patrol In Indian EEZ Without Consent, Announces It Publicly

thewire.in · by The Wire Staff

I hope there is a rest of the story to this.

 

23. Biden admin bristles as China accuses U.S. of 'intimidation' tactics, claims ownership of Taiwan

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

 

24. ‘Untapped weapon’: Philippine leaders warn China by touting defense treaty with US

Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · April 8, 2021

I am reminded of the little boy taunting the bully because he has a big brother he believes will come to his rescue.

Again, is this a place for miscalculation?

 

-----------

 

"Too many people learn about war with no inconvenience to themselves."

- Guy Sajer

 

The plan on paper was that the indirect actions were primary, and that direct action was only meant to buy space and time. But in practice, direct action came to rule the day.

 -Admiral Eric Olson, former commander of US Special Operations Command, October 8, 2020

 

“The only way to fight the plague is with decency.”

- Camus, The Plague