News

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Intersectional imperialism: A wholesome menace

2. H.R. McMaster: Afghanistan is America's longest war – it's time for the delusion about it to end

3. Here’s what to expect in Taiwan’s new defense review

4. A historic exercise shows how Navy SEALs will keep aircraft carriers in a high-end fight

5. Who are the winners and losers in Britain’s new defense review?

6. 9/11 Was a Wake-Up Call. America Is Still Snoozing After the Capitol Assault.

7. Eric Greitens announces he's running for US Senate in Missouri

8. Top U.S. General In Afghanistan Is Carrying A Heavily-Modified Glock With A Compensator Attached

9. Top Armed Services Republican backs National Guard quick reaction force for DC

10. FDD | What’s Behind China’s Dangerous Incursion into the East China Sea

11. Covert Action, Espionage, and the Intelligence Contest in Cyberspace

12. $88 billion and 20 years later, the Afghan security forces are still no match for the Taliban

13. Shared Burden Of A New Vision For The Asia Pacific - Analysis

14. Meet the Russian 'Information Warrior' Seeking To Discredit COVID-19 Vaccines

15. Hard power or soft power? Quad opts for ‘smart’ power

16. Ethnic armies rescue Myanmar’s democratic forces

17. Time for US, Japan to muscle up their alliance

18. Niall Ferguson - A Taiwan Crisis May Mark the End of the American Empire

19. Biden Cabinet near complete but hundreds of jobs still open

 

1. Intersectional imperialism: A wholesome menace

realalexrubi.substack.com · by Alex Rubinstein · March 22, 2021

This is most excellent propaganda from Russia Today. (note snark). It has a little bit of everything wrapped into this.

Please go to the link for better formatting and to view the graphics.  

Note the 2008 excerpt from the US Army manual on unconventional warfare (in the section on "finance feminism").

But the target of this propaganda is so obvious I am sure we will see its themes and messages repeated among certain segments of the political spectrum.

Just consider the section headings alone:

The Noble Anti-Triggering Organization (NATO)

The State Department Becomes an HR Department

The DoD Seeks 'Force Multipliers'

The Central Idpol Agency

Finance Feminism

Wokeism Goes Global

 

2. H.R. McMaster: Afghanistan is America's longest war – it's time for the delusion about it to end

foxnews.com · by H. R. McMaster

Note the "four realities" in which strategy should be grounded.

Conclusion: “If the Biden administration abandons the weak agreement that the Taliban have already broken, it is possible to reverse a self-defeating strategy and sustain a long-term effort at a cost acceptable to the American people.

Because war remains a contest of wills, achieving peace in Afghanistan will require the Afghan government and security forces to convince reconcilable elements of the Taliban that they cannot prevail through the use of force.

Sustainable, long-term military and diplomatic support for the Afghan government and security forces is essential to achieving that outcome.

It would be almost two decades late, but it is past time to end America’s self-delusion in Afghanistan.”

 

3. Here’s what to expect in Taiwan’s new defense review

Defense News · by Mike Yeo · March 22, 2021

Key point: "Taiwan plans to shift its focus from being able to destroy enemy forces landing on its beaches, and instead adopt an asymmetric force structure that can annihilate an enemy at sea prior to making landfall."

I would argue Taiwan also needs an internal civilian based and SOF supported "resistance operating concept" to contribute to non conventional deterrence first and if an invasion does occur to provide defense in depth if the asymmetric approach to annihilating an enemy at sea prior to making landfall fails or less than completely effective."

 

4. A historic exercise shows how Navy SEALs will keep aircraft carriers in a high-end fight

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

Hmmm....

A historic exercise shows how Navy SEALs will keep aircraft carriers in a high-end fight

 

5. Who are the winners and losers in Britain’s new defense review?

Defense News · by Andrew Chuter · March 22, 2021

Note my chuckle here. A new ranger regiment modeled on the "US Army's Green Beret Forces." Oh the heresy of mixing "rangers and Green Berets!" But it will be really confusing when we have Brit Rangers operating side by side Green Berets.

One area that could strengthen ties between the U.S. and U.K., he noted, is the creation of a new British Army ranger regiment, one modeled on the U.S. Army’s Green Beret forces.

The review plans for £120 million in investments over the next four years to equip that force, the start of which Heappey said should be “up and running” by Christmas.

The new unit “doesn’t just do training and advising of partner nations forces, but actually goes and trains, advises, assists and then accompanies them into non-permissive environments, which is exactly what the Green Berets are,” Heappey said. “It’s pretty likely that we’ll find Green Berets and Rangers working alongside each other in the same environments. Sub-Saharan Africa feels like the growing market. But actually there’s still plenty to be done in places like Iraq and Afghanistan as well.”

​There is some real irony here. We designed our national mission force (Delta) on the British SAS to include using similar terminology and naming conventions as well as organizational and employment concepts. Now the UK has recognized the need for a force more suited for advising and assisting and supporting indigenous forces ​so they are borrowing from our examples.

​What this confirms for me is the Brits recognize the importance of the SOF trinities:

1. Irregular Warfare
2. Unconventional Warfare
3. Support to Political Warfare

The Comparative advantage of SOF:

1. Influence
2. Governance
3. Support to indigenous forces and populations

With exquisite capabilities for the no fail CT and CP national missions

​

6. 9/11 Was a Wake-Up Call. America Is Still Snoozing After the Capitol Assault.

Foreign Policy · by Elise Labott · March 22, 2021

Excerpts: “Ultimately, a long-term approach to reducing homegrown extremism must go beyond law enforcement to unpack just how and why many people find these ideologies appealing—and how they can be deradicalized. For a time, many believed that Trump-style nationalist populism was about economic anxiety—which, if true, would be something the government could address through new industrial and trade policies to buoy those left behind by globalization.

But the melange of extremist factions from across the country uniting under a rubric of hatred suggests that their anger stems from something else, such as fear of losing their identity in a country whose demographics are inexorably changing—not something the government can fix with a few tariffs.

The Capitol riot laid bare the dangers of ignoring the growing domestic extremist threat, now emanating from a tangled web of individuals, groups, and ideologies. But it was not an isolated event. FBI Director Wray said the bureau is currently working on upward of 2,000 domestic terrorism investigations. Without a national reckoning about what is happening in the country—and a genuinely bipartisan effort to counter the challenge, like the one seen after 9/11—Jan. 6 may go down in history as the point of no return.

 

7. Eric Greitens announces he's running for US Senate in Missouri

kmbc.com · by KMBC 9 News Staff · March 23, 2021

 

8. Top U.S. General In Afghanistan Is Carrying A Heavily-Modified Glock With A Compensator Attached

thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · March 22, 2021

Ah yes...the important things to report on - the General's sidearm.

 

9. Top Armed Services Republican backs National Guard quick reaction force for DC

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · March 22, 2021

But what would be the chain of command? Who would have the employment decision making authority?

 

10. FDD | What’s Behind China’s Dangerous Incursion into the East China Sea

fdd.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · March 19, 2021

Excerpts:

“China’s position on issues relating to Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, the South China Sea and the Diaoyu Island is consistent and clear,” Zhao said. (Diaoyu is the Chinese name for the Senkaku Islands.) “Our resolution and will to defend national sovereignty, security and development interests is rock solid,” he added.

In no uncertain terms, Zhao claimed that “China’s sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea and the adjacent waters, the Diaoyu Island and its affiliated islands is indisputable.”

In other words, the CCP isn’t backing down from its claim over the Senkaku Islands anytime soon.

 

11. Covert Action, Espionage, and the Intelligence Contest in Cyberspace

warontherocks.com · by Michael Poznansky · March 23, 2021

Conclusion: “Cyberspace may be an intelligence contest among rivals, but all intelligence operations are not created equal. While cyber-enabled espionage and covert cyber operations both qualify as intelligence activities given their reliance on secrecy, and are therefore distinct from conventional warfare or diplomacy, they are also distinct in key ways from one another. Failing to appreciate these differences impedes our ability to understand the richness of cyber operations, underlying motivations, the prospect for signaling, and metrics of success.

Going forward, appreciating this nuance will be important for several reasons. First, as U.S. Cyber Command enters its second decade of existence, having a clear sense of how to think about the variety of operations in cyberspace is critical. In many cases, cyber activity approximates an intelligence contest in which states jockey for information and influence. While it is not always easy to tell which is which, it is imperative to try. Second, assessing the wisdom of the previous administration’s decision to give Cyber Command more latitude in conducting operations — which the Biden administration has purportedly left in place — requires clear metrics of what has worked and what has not. Covert cyber operations may provide a more useful benchmark than espionage operations.

 

12. $88 billion and 20 years later, the Afghan security forces are still no match for the Taliban

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 22, 2021

John Sopko has been providing the most thorough and critical analysis of the Afghan War.

This is the key excerpt:

“Task & Purpose asked Sopko why the Afghan security forces are still so reliant on the United States and NATO nearly 20 years after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

There isn’t a simple or easy answer, he said.

“Based on all the work we’ve done, it seems obvious that the biggest mistake we’ve made was to try to build an Afghan Army in our own image and likeness,” Sopko said. “In other words, an Army that uses the systems and the equipment and the weapons that our army does. And yet, this is a country where a huge portion of the population are illiterate, where there’s very little electricity, and very little internet.”

This is why I focus on this fourth point in my Eight Points of Irregular Warfare:

“ 4. Assessment - must conduct continuous assessment to gain understanding - tactical, operational, and strategic.  Assessments are key to developing strategy and campaign plans and anticipating potential conflict. Assessments allow you to challenge assumptions and determine if a rebalance of, ways and means with the acceptable, durable, political arrangement  is required. Understand the indigenous way of war and adapt to it.   Do not force the US way of war upon indigenous forces if is counter to their history, customs, traditions, and abilities. 

 

13. Shared Burden Of A New Vision For The Asia Pacific - Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by Nick Bisley Forum · March 23, 2021

Conclusion: “Strategic competition with China over Asia’s order will be the dominant feature of the coming years. While that competition is likely to be better managed under Biden, a region dominated by competing great powers is a dangerous one indeed.”

 

14. Meet the Russian 'Information Warrior' Seeking To Discredit COVID-19 Vaccines

TIME 

Who needs the Russians? We have Americans who are trying to discredit the vaccines.

 

15. Hard power or soft power? Quad opts for ‘smart’ power

asiatimes.com · by  Danil Bochkov · March 23, 2021

Conclusion:

“By juggling soft- and hard-power instruments, Biden seems to be pursuing what Joseph Nye once called “smart power” – an adroit combination of a strong military while investing heavily in alliances, partnerships and institutions.

The long list of initiatives following the March 12 meeting signifies that this strategy might be successful. That will become clearer by the time the next summit takes place.”

 

16. Ethnic armies rescue Myanmar’s democratic forces

asiatimes.com · by David Scott Mathieson · March 22, 2021

Maps/graphics at the link. We have a number of Americans and American organizations supporting these ethnic armies. Pilot teams are in place in case any national leaders decide we need to come to support those who seek to remain free.

 

17. Time for US, Japan to muscle up their alliance

asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · March 22, 2021

Conclusion:

“Japan and the Americans either must take some risks or the Chinese will swamp them. And at that point you either hand over the Senkakus or else fight for them. Neither option is a good one.

The Japan-United States 2+2 said all the right things – once again. But it will take more than that to deter the PRC.

Secretary of State Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan – both excellent debaters – should well understand this after the verbal hiding China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, gave them in Anchorage the other day.

Beijing seems ready to match actions to words. Is the same true for Washington and Tokyo?”

 

18. Niall Ferguson - A Taiwan Crisis May Mark the End of the American Empire

english.aawsat.com

The fox and the hedgehog.

Conclusion: “The fox has had a good run. But the danger of foxy foreign policy is that you care about so many issues you risk losing focus. The hedgehog, by contrast, knows one big thing. That big thing may be that he who rules Taiwan rules the world.”

 

19. Biden Cabinet near complete but hundreds of jobs still open

AP · by Alexandra Jaffe · March 23, 2021

 

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"Let us, on both sides, lay aside all arrogance.  Let us not, on either side, claim that we have already discovered the truth.  Let us seek it together as something which is known to neither of us.  For only then may we seek the truth, lovingly and tranquilly, if there be no bold presumption that it is already discovered and possessed."

- Saint Augustine of Hippo, 354-430 AD

 

Unconventional warfare needs to remain the heart and soul of U.S. Special Operations Command and component commands.

- Brandon Webb

 

If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.

- Albert Einstein

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Xi, Kim share messages reaffirming China-N. Korea alliance

2. Cost-sharing deal to bolster alliance

3. ‘Seoul’s nuclear pursuit would harden NK’s atomic ambitions’

4. Quad not on table for Korea-India defense ministerial talks: Seoul

5. Is US pressure on China, North Korea leading to new cold war?

6. S. Korea, U.S. closely watching N. Korea amid signs rocket launchers being deployed to border islet

7. Spotlight on us (South Korea, human rights, and corruption)

8. Lavrov raps U.S.' Indo-Pacific strategy, 'bloc' building, ahead of Seoul visit

9. S. Korea not to co-sponsor this year's U.N. resolution on N.K. human rights

10. North Korea’s Missiles and Nuclear Weapons: Everything You Need to Know

11. Unification ministry reviewing ways to send food, fertilizer assistance to N. Korea

12. Harvard institute calls on journal to address ‘comfort women’ paper issues

13. EU Sanctions N.Korean Officials over Human Rights Abuses

14. For the first time, the Justice Department extradites a North Korean to stand trial in the U.S.

15. CSIS Commission on the Korean Peninsula: Recommendations for the U.S.-Korea Alliance

16. The South Korea-US 2+2 Talks: Who Came Out Ahead?

 

1. Xi, Kim share messages reaffirming China-N. Korea alliance

AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung · March 23, 2021

And they remain closer than lips and teeth.  And they have a common objective - both want unification of their countries! (the irony is north Korea prevented Chinese unification in 1950 when it first attempted to unify the Korean peninsula).
This is the only alliance these two countries have.

 

2. Cost-sharing deal to bolster alliance
The Korea Times · by Alex Soohoon Lee · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “All in all, the 11th SMA, whether it is considered a success or a half-measure in terms of negotiations, is expected to restore the damaged alliance, putting it back on the right track. The two allies show one caveat after smoothly closing the SMA. The Biden administration may ask its allies, including South Korea, to join the U.S.' efforts to maintain peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.

There have been growing calls for Korea to join the informal Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an anti-China coalition better known as the Quad comprising the U.S., Japan, Australia and India. However, Korea is reluctant to accept such calls.

At this critical juncture, Seoul and Washington will have to work together closely to iron out their differences to find a way forward.”

 

3. ‘Seoul’s nuclear pursuit would harden NK’s atomic ambitions’

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · March 23, 2021

Of course it would.  But the purpose of Seoul acquiring nuclear weapons would not be with the intent to denuclearize. It would be because the regime has no intention of denuclearizing.  That said I still believe as long as we sustain the alliance the ROK should not attempt to acquire nuclear weapons.  I think it

 

4. Quad not on table for Korea-India defense ministerial talks: Seoul

The Korea Times · March 23, 2021

That answers my question from yesterday about the Quad on the agenda at the ROK-India defense meeting.

 

5. Is US pressure on China, North Korea leading to new cold war?

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · March 23, 2021

Why are we always to blame?  What about the actions of China and north Korea (and Russia) leading to a new "cold war?"

 

6. S. Korea, U.S. closely watching N. Korea amid signs rocket launchers being deployed to border islet

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 23, 2021

Again we have to ask if the masters of deception are showing something they want us to see?  What are we not seeing?  What are they trying to hide from us?

 

7. Spotlight on us (South Korea, human rights, and corruption)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

An Oped responding to the US State Department's report on human rights.

Conclusion: “Corruption and human rights restrictions in our society are more serious than thought. The recent inside-information real estate scandal shows the level of corruption among our civil servants — even as the country is led by a human rights-lawyer-turned-president. The government’s arrogance and self-satisfaction have played a big part in the degradation of the country. We hope the government turns the country into an advanced one in human rights.”

 

8. Lavrov raps U.S.' Indo-Pacific strategy, 'bloc' building, ahead of Seoul visit

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 23, 2021

Neither Russia nor China like our Indo-Pacific strategy.  And both would like to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance (and others).

 

9. S. Korea not to co-sponsor this year's U.N. resolution on N.K. human rights

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 23, 2021

Not a good look President Moon.  You must stand up for the human rights of the Korean people in the north (and then South).

 

10. North Korea’s Missiles and Nuclear Weapons: Everything You Need to Know

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin

Well, maybe not everything.  But this is a useful summary.

But not to worry. Many pundits say Kim has no intention of using them against the United States.  

Excerpt: “What is President Biden’s stance on North Korea?

Mr. Biden has advocated mixing pressure with what he calls principled diplomacy. He has declared an end to holding summits without preconditions, which he said amounts to embracing a thug. Mr. Biden said he would sit down with Mr. Kim only if Pyongyang were sincere and pledged to reduce its nuclear arsenal.

In January, Mr. Kim called the U.S. his country’s biggest enemy. North Korean state media last mentioned Mr. Biden by name in 2019, when it called him a “fool of low I.Q.” and compared him to a rabid dog that “must be beaten to death.”

 

11. Unification ministry reviewing ways to send food, fertilizer assistance to N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 23, 2021

north Korea should want to receive assistance more than the South wants to provide it.  Why is it so hard for the South to provide it?  Because the north is not receptive.  Think about that.  Why have the rejected offers to help the Korean people in the north?  The South may end up having to "bribe" the regime for it to accept aid.  Think about the irony of that but that is of course part of Kim's long con and political warfare strategy. 

Excerpt:

“The North has repeatedly rejected offers for help from South Korea to ease its food shortage amid chilled inter-Korean relations. Leader Kim Jong-un has also urged his officials not to receive outside aid, citing concerns over the spread of the coronavirus into the country.

Unification Minister Lee has told lawmakers that the North appears to be faced with a food shortage of about 1.2 million to 1.3 million tons this year mainly due to damage from last year's heavy downpours. South Korea has been exploring various ways to provide food and fertilizer to North Korea, according to his ministry.”

 

12. Harvard institute calls on journal to address ‘comfort women’ paper issues

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee

I think it is difficult for Harvard to dig itself out of this hole.

 

13. EU Sanctions N.Korean Officials over Human Rights Abuses

english.chosun.com

There is more international support for human rights in north Korea than there is within the Moon administration.

 

14. For the first time, the Justice Department extradites a North Korean to stand trial in the U.S.

freekorea.us · by Joshua Stanton · March 23, 2021

Key point form Josh Stanton:  "Mun undoubtedly knows many things about where Pyongyang hides his money, and his intelligence value could be inestimable. But the real impact of his extradition was to persuade Kim Jong-un that Malaysia was no longer a safe place for his agents, and to panic him into pulling his people out and cutting diplomatic relations. That will be a significant shock to Kim’s finances, because Malaysia was one of the largest hubs of North Korea’s money laundering operations."

 

15. CSIS Commission on the Korean Peninsula: Recommendations for the U.S.-Korea Alliance

csis.org · by John J. Hamre, Victor Cha, and Joseph Nye · March 22, 2021

The 31 page report can be downloaded here.

 

16. The South Korea-US 2+2 Talks: Who Came Out Ahead?

thediplomat.com · by Sukjoon Yoon · March 22, 2021

Alliance partners should not be "coming out ahead."

Excerpt:

“To summarize the outcome of these 2+2 talks, the United States sought to repair the strained alliance with South Korea after a similar, successful visit to Tokyo, but Seoul proved a much greater challenge. There were positive results for Washington: a less active pursuit of OPCON transfer by the Moon administration, the agreement on increased payments under the new SMA, and the prospect of buying more weapons and equipment from U.S. companies to operate the new ROK carrier. But there were negatives for the U.S. as well: South Korea declined to join the Quad Plus and signaled that military cooperation with Japan will not be harmonized anytime soon. Meanwhile, U.S.-ROK alliance is still centered on North Korea, rather than the much broader agenda that the United States desires.”

Spoiler alert:  In conclusion, South Korea came out ahead at these talks, for the moment, anyway, with the United States largely unsatisfied. Even though the U.S. brought its big guns, Seoul held out for strategic autonomy, or at least strategic ambiguity, in dealing with North Korea and China. There may be no public disagreement revealed between the U.S. and the ROK, but the cracks will likely grow wider and deeper. The United States will surely be looking forward to the next ROK administration in 2022, and will be hoping for a conservative party victory.

 

------------

 

"Let us, on both sides, lay aside all arrogance.  Let us not, on either side, claim that we have already discovered the truth.  Let us seek it together as something which is known to neither of us.  For only then may we seek the truth, lovingly and tranquilly, if there be no bold presumption that it is already discovered and possessed."

- Saint Augustine of Hippo, 354-430 AD

 

Unconventional warfare needs to remain the heart and soul of U.S. Special Operations Command and component commands.

- Brandon Webb

 

If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.

- Albert Einstein

 

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs.

​1. SAS shakeup: UK targets ‘hostile state actors’

2. South China Sea: alarm in Philippines as 200 Chinese vessels gather at disputed reef

​3. ​The U.S. and China Finally Get Real With Each Other

4. The State of (Deterrence by) Denial

​5. ​Cyber attack tied to China boosts development bank's chief

​6. ​Can the Quad Transform Into an Alliance to Contain China?

7. The War on Terror 20 Years on: Crossroads or Cul-De-Sac?

8. In Burma, ‘they have come for the poets’

9. The Real Reasons the U.S. Can’t Win Wars Anymore

10. Opinion | Biden’s global, muscular liberalism is an indefensible foreign policy in 2021

11. The Science of Making Americans Hurt Their Own Country

12. The U.S. Military Is Getting Ready to Fight A New Kind of War

13. A Fatal Error Inspired a Plan to Reduce Friendly Fire, but the Military Isn’t Interested

14. Criminals Use Covid-19 To Launch New Wave of Cyber Threats

15. Bathroom Politics: Male Special Forces Rebuff Unisex Restrooms to Keep Men-Only Status Quo, Study Finds

16. QAnon Supporter Crashed Army Reserve Base After Threatening to Unleash ‘Crazy Stupid’ Plan: Docs

17. Evidence in Capitol Attack Most Likely Supports Sedition Charges, Prosecutor Says

18. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 22, 2021 | SOF News

 

1. SAS shakeup: UK targets ‘hostile state actors’

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · March 21, 2021

In the immortal words of the SNL church lady, "Well isn't that special?"

Seriously (and snarky comments aside), this is quite a revamp of British special forces.

 

2. South China Sea: alarm in Philippines as 200 Chinese vessels gather at disputed reef

The Guardian · March 22, 2021

What do you do now Lieutenant???

 

3. The U.S. and China Finally Get Real With Each Other

The Atlantic · by Thomas Wright · March 21, 2021

I certainly hope Mr. Wright is right in the subtitle that Alaska was a necessary step to better relations, but...

But this is a troubling excerpt:

“The rules-based international order is now over. Beijing and Moscow concluded long ago that a world in which China and Russia generally acquiesced to U.S. leadership, as they did in the 1990s and 2000s, was untenable, a Western trap designed, in part, to undermine authoritarianism. They were not entirely wrong about that—many Americans saw globalization and multilateralism as having the desirable side effect of encouraging political liberalization around the world.

The truth is that the United States does pose a threat to the Chinese Communist Party’s interests (although not necessarily those of the Chinese people), while the CCP surely poses a threat to liberal democracy and U.S. interests. Ultimately, Washington and Beijing will have to acknowledge this to each other. That will be difficult for the Biden administration, which is accustomed to assuming that American interests are not a threat to any other government, but broadly benefit all major world powers. It will be even harder for Beijing, which goes to great lengths to conceal its revisionism behind a shield of insincere platitudes.

Such an acknowledgment will allow a truly frank strategic conversation to occur about how these two countries’ systems will relate to each other as they compete. These systems are incompatible in many respects, but they are also intertwined in a myriad of ways. The goals of U.S.-China diplomacy should initially be modest, to avoid unintentional provocations and to facilitate transactional cooperation on shared interests. Eventually, if China’s behavior and the geopolitical conditions are favorable, the two sides could explore broader cooperation and even the possibility of a détente—a general thawing of tensions—but that is a long way off.

Historically, the most volatile periods of rivalry between major powers is in the early stages; think of the late 1940s and the 1950s in the Cold War. The red lines become apparent only through interactions in crises. The greatest risk is for either side to miscalculate the resolve or intentions of the other. By getting real in Anchorage, both sides have taken the important first step toward a more stable relationship by acknowledging the true nature of their relationship.

 

4. The State of (Deterrence by) Denial

warontherocks.com · by Elbridge Colby and Walter Slocombe · March 22, 2021

Excerpts: ”In short, absent an effective American forward defense, China will be able to advantageously wield its military strength over key states in the region. Beijing need not necessarily actually launch such aggression. It could progressively use the perception of this capability to coerce and divide states in the region until any coalition to uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific falls apart, leaving an Asia under China’s hegemony — with dire and very direct implications for Americans, who would then be subject to a far more powerful China that has clearly shown its willingness to coerce other countries and intervene in their internal affairs. Conversely, the most reliable form of deterrence would stem from the demonstrable capacity of the United States and its allies and partners to deny China the ability to subjugate one of them. In other words, the best deterrence in this situation is deterrence by denial, which essentially here requires an effective forward defense.

...

Indo-Pacific Command’s request is, of course, not gospel. Parts, perhaps important ones, may not be necessary or advisable — other measures may be more effective. Technology may offer ways to meet the requirements better than is possible with existing systems. And doing what is necessary will demand resources — whether from increases in overall defense resources or shifts of effort from other geographic theaters and missions, or some combination thereof. Nor should the request detract any support or focus from the need to make longer-term changes and investments to contend with China. Rather, it should serve as a near-term measure to enable an effective defense as the Defense Department more fundamentally overhauls the Joint Force.

But what is clear is that the United States — alongside its allies and partners’ own efforts — needs to spend money and bend metal to strengthen its forward defense alongside its confederates in the Western Pacific — and do it now. $4.6 billion now and $22.7 billion in the future is a lot of money — but it is a small part of the overall defense budget and roughly equivalent to what has been spent on the European Defense Initiative. More to the point, China just announced it was increasing its own defense spending by 6.6 percent this year. There will be no cheap way to meet this challenge — so hard choices in other theaters and for other requirements will be obligatory. But failing to do so will be the most expensive mistake of all.”

 

5. Cyber attack tied to China boosts development bank's chief

AP · by Joshua Goodman · March 22, 2021

Excerpts: “Claver-Carone, the former National Security Council’s senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs, chaired last week in Colombia his first annual meeting of the IDB since he was elected last fall over the objections of Democrats and some regional governments who complained he was breaking the longstanding tradition of a Latin American being at the helm.

A geopolitical ideologue, Claver-Carone seems in no rush to abandon his disdain for Beijing’s growing influence in Washington’s backyard. In sharp contrast to his predecessor, Luis Alberto Moreno of Colombia, who eagerly promoted Chinese investment in the region, Claver-Carone recently floated the possibility of inviting Taiwan, the island democracy claimed by the communist Beijing government as part of its territory.

In curtailing China’s influence, Claver-Carone is looking to curry favor with Democrats who question his leadership but share his mistrust of Beijing. If he succeeds, they can help him deliver on what was the main pledge of his unorthodox candidacy: U.S. support for a capital increase so the bank can help the region dig out from a pandemic-induced recession that’s the worst in more than a century.

 

6. Can the Quad Transform Into an Alliance to Contain China?

The National Interest · by James Holmes · March 21, 2021

Of course a first question is: can China be contained? Then, is containment our strategy? Is it the best strategy?

 

7. The War on Terror 20 Years on: Crossroads or Cul-De-Sac?

institute.global· by Bruce Hoffman · March 21, 2021

Conclusion: “Accordingly, absent this recognition, the American-led war on terror will remain stuck in the cul-de-sac it finds itself in today: inherently reactive rather than proactive – deprived of a capacity to recognise, much less anticipate, important changes in our enemies’ modi operandi, recruitment and targeting. Success in this war’s third decade will therefore depend on our ability to harness the technological mastery and overwhelming kinetic force of the US military as part of a more dedicated and comprehensive effort to better counter the ideology and narrative of our enemies and equip our regional and local friends and allies with the tools to also better resist these threats.”

 

8. In Burma, ‘they have come for the poets’

dallasnews.com · by Christopher Merrill  · March 21, 2021

Excerpts:  “One poet told me the Tatmadaw had tied Suu Kyi’s hands from the beginning of her rise to power, destroying any hope of a national reconciliation process — which is why she thinks civil war is looming. Another Burma watcher believes the Tatmadaw have miscalculated, arguing that their use of water cannons, stun guns, rubber bullets and snipers with live ammunition will only backfire, bringing yet more protesters into the streets. Of Maung Yu Py’s court case, a poet said, “If we win, he’ll be out. If not, we’ll be in.”

Their fate may depend on what steps are taken by the Biden administration to restore some semblance of democracy. The signal role played by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in bringing about change may offer a road map for American re-engagement in Myanmar/Burma — a country I can’t help thinking of as “Always Repairs.”

 

9. The Real Reasons the U.S. Can’t Win Wars Anymore

National Review Online · by Lawrence Korb · March 21, 2021

A follow-up to Bing West's recent essay.

Excerpts: “Korb - While I have some experience in each of these conflicts, having served in Vietnam and having visited Iraq three times and Afghanistan once, it does not match that of Bing, who is one of the bravest people I have ever known. However, I still believe that he presents a sometimes incomplete and misleading picture of why we lost these three wars.

...

How bad will it be if we agree to leave on May 1, as Trump agreed to, and the Taliban takes over, especially for women? When I visited Afghanistan in 2011, I asked a Taliban official how they would treat women if or when they took over. He told me not to worry — that they would not treat them any worse than our allies, the Saudis.

Bing’s article should be read by all those who believe that the U.S. can develop and sustain democracies by using military power. However, they should keep in mind that there are some other factors that also play into this decision.

 

10. Opinion | Biden’s global, muscular liberalism is an indefensible foreign policy in 2021

The Washington Post · by Elbridge Colby · March 21, 2021

Conclusion: “For the first time in a long time, the United States is not overwhelmingly predominant. That means we cannot afford to be profligate with our power, wealth and resolve. Rather, we must manage the threats we face — above all China — in ways that promote U.S. power and well-being, rather than vainly expending them in a global ideological struggle or retreating in hopes that the world will favorably stabilize on its own. Such a course is the only option responsive to the needs and risk tolerances of the great bulk of Americans. It is thus the only responsible foreign policy for our democracy in this day and age.”

 

11. The Science of Making Americans Hurt Their Own Country

The Atlantic · by Anne Applebaum · March 19, 2021

We have met the enemy and he is us.

I hate to beat the dead horse: (From the 2017 NSS): "A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

 

12. The U.S. Military Is Getting Ready to Fight A New Kind of War

The National Interest · by Kris Osborn · March 21, 2021

New???

 

13. A Fatal Error Inspired a Plan to Reduce Friendly Fire, but the Military Isn’t Interested

texasmonthly.com · March 18, 2021

Excerpts: “Hayles sees a touch of destiny in his path: from waiting in the prisoners’ tent hours after firing the missiles that killed two Americans in 1991, to the years he spent refining his combat ID system, to reimagining how Flashlight could blossom into a new 5G project. If Hayles’s vision leads to a significant expansion in the nation’s 5G capability, it would be a technical triumph—and hugely enriching. “He’s not entirely altruistic in this,” a colleague observed. More than money, however, it seems that Hayles yearns for validation, a legacy defined not by his fatal mistake in the desert but by his breakthrough work since. For the man who was once Gunfighter Six, all the long nights spent obsessing over technical solutions to friendly fire, the tinkering with prototypes and recalculating of radio frequencies, the endless struggles with Army bureaucracy—all of it will feel justified if his 5G idea pays off.

But it’s not clear that Hayles and his new enterprise, the American Antenna Company, can squeeze into the mobile network business. For well over a year, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon have been adding to their 5G networks the same low-frequency spectrum that Hayles has championed. And the major telecoms are increasingly using antennas that can digitally steer multiple beams, which they say is an advantage over Hayles’s single-focus Luneburg lens model. Hayles’s concept is a good one, an outside expert said, but not good enough to convince the telecoms to set aside what they’ve already got.

But Hayles is undaunted. “With my antenna, I can get more distance and better performance,” he told me. “Sooner or later, somebody will screw up and start putting my antenna up, and all of a sudden, customers are happier and costs are less.” Hayles is convinced his network design simply outperforms the alternatives. And once that becomes apparent, he hopes, even the military will recognize the value of Flashlight.”

 

14. Criminals Use Covid-19 To Launch New Wave of Cyber Threats

thefintechtimes.com · by Francis Bignell · March 20, 2021

Criminals are exploiters and entrepreneurs.

 

15. Bathroom Politics: Male Special Forces Rebuff Unisex Restrooms to Keep Men-Only Status Quo, Study Finds

military.com · by Patricia Kime · March 21, 2021

Wow!  

 

16. QAnon Supporter Crashed Army Reserve Base After Threatening to Unleash ‘Crazy Stupid’ Plan: Docs

The Daily Beast · March 20, 2021

More craziness from the QAnon cultists.

 

17. Evidence in Capitol Attack Most Likely Supports Sedition Charges, Prosecutor Says

The New York Times · by Katie Benner · March 21, 2021

Seems to meet the definition to me.

 

18. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 22, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · March 22, 2021

​

--------------

 

“A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, conn a ship, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve an equation, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.” 

- Robert Heinlein

 

“In the course of this struggle against factional opponents, for the first time Kim began to emphasize nationalism as a means of rallying the population to the enormous sacrifices needed for post-war recovery. This was a nationalism that first took shape in the environment of the anti-Japanese guerrilla movement and developed into a creed through the destruction of both the non-Communist nationalist forces and much of the leftist intellectual tradition of the domestic Communists. Kim’s nationalism did not draw inspiration from Korean history, nor did it dwell on past cultural achievements, for the serious study of history and traditional culture soon effectively ceased in the DPRK. Rather, DPRK nationalism drew inspiration from the Spartan outlook of the former Manchurian guerrillas. It was a harsh nationalism that dwelt on past wrongs and promises of retribution for “national traitors” and their foreign backers. DPRK nationalism stressed the “purity” of all things Korean against the “contamination” of foreign ideas, and inculcated in the population a sense of fear and animosity toward the outside world. Above all, DPRK nationalism stressed that the guerrilla ethos was not only the supreme, but also the only legitimate basis on which to reconstitute a reunified Korea.” 

- Adrian Buzo, Guerrilla Dynasty, p 27

 

“Inside, I’m assaulted by the evening propaganda broadcasts coming over the apartment’s hardwired loudspeaker. There’s one in every apartment and factory floor in Pyongyang”

- Adam Johnson, The Orphan Master's Son

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. ‘Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula’: Pyongyang’s trick language for keeping its nukes

2. 5 Takeaways From Investigating Covert Oil Deliveries to North Korea

3. South Korea Hints It May Strengthen Military Ties With Japan

4. U.S. Flags Human Rights Concerns in S.Korea

5. North Korea’s new nuclear gambit and the fate of denuclearisation

6. When I escaped to South Korea, I felt guilt

7. How Korea Bungled Coronavirus Vaccination

8. S. Korea to seek other ways to engage with N.K. as overseas spectators banned from Tokyo Olympics: ministry

9.   Unification minister renews support for private sector efforts to resume aid to N. Korea

10. State Department spotlights corruption, abuse in South

11. Moon's approval rating at all-time low of 34.1 pct: Realmeter

12. Moon's plan to revive peace initiative through Tokyo Games faces hitch

13. North Korean man extradited to US in sanctions case

14. (South Korean) Defense chief to visit UAE, India this week

15. Two border guards fled to China in January to find food

16. Here’s How America Can Strengthen Relations with Japan and South Korea

17. North Korea in Crisis: Food Shortages and Information Lockdown

18. S. Korea's observation satellite successfully launched into orbit

 

1. ‘Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula’: Pyongyang’s trick language for keeping its nukes

AEI · by Nicholas Eberstadt

A critically important essay from Nick Eberstadt, one of the leading Korea watchers in the US.

Key excerpt: “Of course, it is not difficult to understand why some international actors are willing to play along with North Korean code language. Moscow and Beijing are delighted by the mischief it inevitably invites. The current leftist Blue House, as part of its dangerous double-game of balancing the neighbor that wants to destroy it against the ally committed to protecting it, pretends there is simply nothing to see here. At his joint press conference yesterday with Secretary Blinken, for example, ROK Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong — a North Korea expert, frequent flier to Pyongyang, and repeat interlocutor with Kim Jong Un — acted as if he had no idea this North Korean formulation even existed. But he and the rest of his government carefully parrot the North’s favored phrasing nonetheless.”

I actually think this public debate is a good thing because it allows us to both expose KJU’s strategy to dominate the peninsula by breaking the alliance (and how it has failed to live up to all the agreements calling for denuclearization) while at the same time exposing the appeasers, those who would endanger the ROK, or the ignorant. It is a pretty simple litmus test to determine who’s who: are you for denuclearization of the north or of the peninsula?  

Dr Tara O shared this comment about Nick's essay. It is something we should really pay attention to: "Terminology Deception/Confusion Tactics (용어혼란전술) used by North Korea, more specifically used by the Workers' Party of Korea, Chinese Communist Party, Communist Party of the Soviet Union, etc." I would this is an important tool in the political warfare toolbox.

 

2. 5 Takeaways From Investigating Covert Oil Deliveries to North Korea

NY Times · by Stella Cooper, Christoph Koettl and Muyi Xiao

10 minute Video (which is very good) and other graphics are at the link. 

This is very important reporting that illustrates the complexity of enforcing sanctions. Much more work needs to be done. Note the linkage to Taiwan, Hong Kong, the PRC, and Indonesia.

Here is the link to the 84 page RUSI and C4ADS report. 

 

3. South Korea Hints It May Strengthen Military Ties With Japan

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee and Jihye Lee · March 21, 2021

Could be a very good development.

 

4. U.S. Flags Human Rights Concerns in S.Korea

english.chosun.com · March 22, 2021

Another source of alliance friction that will increase if/when the US Congress holds hearings on the anti-leaflet law. Unfortunately for the ROK they just cannot justify the law from an international legal and human rights perspective.

Although counterintuitive perhaps, calling out our ally gives us more justification to focus on the real human rights abuser - the Kim family regime.

The way out of this alliance friction is for the ROK to repeal the anti-leaflet amendment and to participate in an aggressive alliance campaign for north Korean human rights.

 

5. North Korea’s new nuclear gambit and the fate of denuclearisation

eastasiaforum.org · by Evans Revere · March 22, 2021

Important conclusion from Evans Revere:

“It remains to be seen whether the Biden administration will take the bait and pursue an arms control approach with Pyongyang. If it does, President Joe Biden will no doubt assure us that he does not ‘accept’ North Korea’s nuclear program, but rather wants to limit it quantitatively and qualitatively. Such an argument ignores the fact that denuclearisation agreements in 1994, 2005 and 2007 failed to freeze the nuclear program because of Pyongyang’s evasiveness about monitoring and verification. As a fully-fledged nuclear power, North Korea will probably be even more reluctant to accept intrusive inspections today.

With the door to North Korea’s denuclearisation closing, Kim Jong-un believes he can shut it forever and open a new one that will lead the country to become a permanently nuclear-armed state. If the Biden administration decides to take the slippery slope leading to arms control talks with Pyongyang, it will find an eager ‘partner’ in Kim Jong-un.

​But it is this excerpt that tells the complete story of the regime and its strategy. This should be no surprise to anyone​ who has studied north Korea's political warfare strategy but most turn a blind eye to this. It is from 2012.

‘If you remove the threat’, Ri said, ‘we will feel more secure, and in 10 or 20 years we will be able to consider denuclearisation’. ‘In the meantime,’ he declared, ‘we can sit down and engage in arms control talks as one nuclear power with another’.

​And in the meantime we will execute our political warfare strategy based on the use of subversion, coercion, extortion, and force to unify Korea under northern domination to ensure regime survival​.

 

6. When I escaped to South Korea, I felt guilt

The Korea Times · by Park Sung-ae · March 21, 2021

Note the discussion of unification.

 

7. How Korea Bungled Coronavirus Vaccination

english.chosun.com

Excerpt: “Korea was the 104th country in the world to start coronavirus vaccinations, around two months slower than the U.S. and U.K. and similar in pace to Southeast Asian and some African countries.”

 

8. S. Korea to seek other ways to engage with N.K. as overseas spectators banned from Tokyo Olympics: ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 22, 2021

 

9. Unification minister renews support for private sector efforts to resume aid to N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 22, 2021

We should note the report that all UN personnel have withdrawn from Pyongyang. What makes any think private sector humanitarian assistance is going to be received by the regime? (unless it can be accompanied by massive under the table payoffs). 

 

10. State Department spotlights corruption, abuse in South

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

Our report is airing South Korea's dirty laundry - the article below summarizes the recent scandals. etc, of the South in recent years.

 

11. Moon's approval rating at all-time low of 34.1 pct: Realmeter

en.yna.co.kr c이치동 · March 22, 2021

But not unexpected for a South Korea lame duck president this far into the single term.

 

12. Moon's plan to revive peace initiative through Tokyo Games faces hitch

The Korea Times · March 22, 2021

No chance for a second meeting with the dragon lady, Kim Yo-jong, at an Olympic games. And it worked out so well the last time!!

 

13. North Korean man extradited to US in sanctions case

The Korea Times · March 22, 2021

Someone asked me my comments on this, e.g., how will this hurt the regime, how significant is the criminal, what does the US hope to gain? Here is my response:

Yes it is significant as you note simply because it is the first extradition of a north Korean who operates Kim Jong-un's illicit activities network.  But it is bigger than that. This is a necessary action if we want to have a rules based international order. This person was breaking US and international law through money laundering activities (and probably more). Extradition is an important international legal and diplomatic tool. It is also significant because it is a direct action against north Korea's illicit activities network run by Office 39 which is directly responsible for raising hard currency for the royal court economy of Kim Jong-un.

I am not sure if the individual himself is significant, but his knowledge and links to the illicit activities network are certainly significant. I am sure the regime fears that he will be of great intelligence value to the US if he confesses and provides information as part of a possible plea deal. This may be what the regime fears most though they are obviously taking measures to minimize the damage. Cutting off relations may be a diplomatic signal to show displeasure with allowing the extradition but the real reason may be that their illicit business activities may be in jeopardy because of the extradition. There are hundreds of north Korean front companies in Malaysia (according to the research of Dr. Bruce Bechtol) most in partnership with Malaysian businesses. The regime may feel that it is necessary to cut its losses to protect it global illicit activities and network and mitigate the damage that will be done when Mun Choi Myong testifies or provides intelligence to US authorities. Protecting Office 39 and its illicit activities may be more important than the activities being conducted in Malaysia (although Malaysia was a very good location for the regime to do a lot of business).

The US hopes to gain information about the regime's illicit activities network. It hopes to send a message to the regime and all those conducting illicit activities in support of the regime that we can reach out and get you through international legal and diplomatic means. It will expose Kim Jong-un's global illicit activities operations to the outside world. It demonstrates the importance of the rules based international order and our willingness to reinforce it.

The regime loses all of the above, exposure, harm to its activities (loss of revenue) and reputation, and possibly losses of other bases of operations when other countries are no longer willing to turn a blind eye to its illicit activities. And most importantly by cutting off relations with Malaysia it is losing a one of its most important bases of operations for its illicit activities. The regime probably assesses it has to give up Malaysia in order to protect the rest of its network.

 

14. (South Korean) Defense chief to visit UAE, India this week

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 22, 2021

Good timing on the visit to Idia. Will India press the ROK on the Quad?

 

15. Two border guards fled to China in January to find food

dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui · March 22, 2021

Indications of the potential breakdown of the three chains of control and command systems (the traditional military chain, the political chain, and the security chain).

 

16. Here’s How America Can Strengthen Relations with Japan and South Korea

The National Interest · by Elliot Silverberg  and Daniel Aum · March 21, 2021

Conclusion: No doubt these efforts will take considerable discipline and energy to implement. China necessarily gets a vote on the future evolution of the region, as Beijing will push back against any effort which it perceives as a move to contain it. Indeed, engaging China will be critical to the ultimate success of any North Korea policy. Despite potential opposition and the need to cooperate with Beijing where interests align, it is ultimately up to the United States and its allies not merely to counter risks and threats but to push forward a positive vision for the region. Re-energizing trilateral cooperation is undoubtedly an essential place to start.

 

17. North Korea in Crisis: Food Shortages and Information Lockdown

hrw.org · by Lina Yoon · March 16, 2021

The regime is exploiting COVID to further oppress the Korean people living in the north to sustain it in power.

 

18. S. Korea's observation satellite successfully launched into orbit

en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · March 22, 2021

 

---------

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Japan, U.S. defense chiefs affirm cooperation over Taiwan emergency

2. GOP Hawks Warn against Repealing Iraq War Resolution ahead of Vote

3.  The Clearest Sign the Pandemic Could Get Worse

4. Facing vaccine skepticism, one corner of the Army is trying something new

5. Looking for a Non-Kinetic Win? Invest in a Public Affairs Paradigm Shift

6. Opinion | The Pentagon is using China as an excuse for huge new budgets

7. In Syria, US Commanders Hold the Line — and Wait for Biden

8. Opinion | Asian-Americans Are Scared for a Reason

9. Duterte 'happy' to go to jail for killing human rights activists

10. Soldier Fights for Her Life to Serve in US Army

11. The Politics Behind China's Belt and Road Initiative

12. State’s Influence on Foreign Policy: Is This Really as Good as It Gets?

13. The US and China are preparing for war — and Australia is caught in the crosshairs

14. Biden's grand strategy for U.S.-China contested islands

15. Iran threatens US Army base and top general

16. Sparks Fly In The Alaska Snow - OpEd

17. Your Addiction to Outrage is Ruining Your Life

18. Rich Countries Signed Away a Chance to Vaccinate the World

 

1. Japan, U.S. defense chiefs affirm cooperation over Taiwan emergency

asia.nikkei.com · March 21, 2021

Excerpt: “Tokyo has been reviewing the feasibility of issuing an SDF dispatch order to protect U.S. warships and military planes in case of a crisis between China and Taiwan given the strait's geographical proximity and the possibility of an armed conflict there affecting the safety of Japanese citizens.”

 

2. GOP Hawks Warn against Repealing Iraq War Resolution ahead of Vote

National Review Online · by Jimmy Quinn · March 20, 2021

I think there are big differences between the 2001 and 2002 AUMFs.

I wonder how far Congress is willing to go on this?

Conclusion:” If one thing is clear, though, it’s that Congress, which once laid dormant as the executive’s war powers ballooned, has entered a period of heightened interested in war powers reform — and this time, it might result in some concrete changes.”

 

3. The Clearest Sign the Pandemic Could Get Worse

defenseone.com · by The COVID Tracking Project

Conclusion: In months past, we might have been able to make educated guesses about what might happen next as the situation worsens in Detroit: We would expect to see cases and hospitalizations increase statewide and also rise elsewhere in the region, as when the Dakotas and Wisconsin acted as sentinels for the deadly third surge of cases over the winter. We would also have seen deaths soar several weeks after cases rose, especially within nursing homes. But Michigan’s surge arrives in a national landscape altered by new viral variants and more than 100 million immune systems strengthened by vaccination. We anticipate that state and federal vaccination efforts will increase in and around Detroit—and across the country—fast enough to prevent a regional or national reversal of our hard-won progress. What the numbers incontrovertibly show, however, is that we’re not going to see COVID-19 immediately disappear. As public-health experts have suggested for months, there will be continuing outbreaks this spring—likely as a result of B.1.1.7 becoming the dominant virus. Now the question is how bad they’ll get and how far they’ll spread.

 

4. Facing vaccine skepticism, one corner of the Army is trying something new

The Washington Post  ·by Alex Horton · March 19, 2021

This is what leadership is all about.  I hope it will increase the number of military personnel who will get vaccinated.

 

5. Looking for a Non-Kinetic Win? Invest in a Public Affairs Paradigm Shift

cimsec.org · by Matthew Stroup · March 20, 2021

The best PAOs I have known and served with (just like the best IO and PSYOP personnel) were strategic thinkers.  They have to have a broad understanding of strategy and operational art.  It is not just about being able to engage with the media.  It is about helping to tell the right stories about our military operations and how they support our national security.

It is interesting how the author brings in Peter Singer's work to this essay.

 

6. Opinion | The Pentagon is using China as an excuse for huge new budgets

The Washington Post ·  by Fareed Zakaria  · March 18, 2021

These number comparisons are always suspect.

But I do like this except: And the United States deploys this power using a vast network of some 800 overseas bases. China has three. China’s defense budget is around $200 billion, not even a third as large as that of the United States. Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution notes that “if China were in NATO, we would berate it for inadequate burden-sharing, since its military outlays fall well below NATO’s 2 percent minimum.”

 

7. In Syria, US Commanders Hold the Line — and Wait for Biden

defenseone.com · by Katie Bo Williams  · March 18, 2021

Excerpts:

“Senior leaders and service members alike say the relationship with the SDF, damaged when Trump withdrew U.S. troops in advance of the Turkish incursion, has recovered. There are SDF fighters on every patrol, although they ride in their own pickup trucks and it is the Americans that lead the engagement in Hemzebeg.

We lost some places because of you, Stone is told by the villagers. But Erdogan is the real threat, the men say, and we need you.

She is invited in for tea, but declines. If the convoy is to be back on the small, isolated base before dark, they must leave now. Another patrol will head out the next day.

“It's remained the same,” Calvert said, asked if he had received new guidance from Washington after Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20. “The policies in Syria are still the same.”

 

8. Opinion | Asian-Americans Are Scared for a Reason

The New York Times · by the Editorial Board · March 18, 2021

 

9. Duterte 'happy' to go to jail for killing human rights activists

rappler.com · Pia Randa · March 18, 2021

Hard to comment on the craziness of Duterte.

 

10. Soldier Fights for Her Life to Serve in US Army

army.mil ·  by Liane Hatch · March 18, 2021

An incredible story of the journey of an American who became an American soldier.  This is what makes America great always.

 

11. The Politics Behind China's Belt and Road Initiative

thewire.in · by Prem Shankar Jha

Good overview and background on One Belt One Road updated from last summer.

 

12. State’s Influence on Foreign Policy: Is This Really as Good as It Gets?

afsa.org · by Keith W. Mines

Excerpts:

“In the end, the system is ever in flux, and each change in administration presents new opportunities. There are immense challenges ahead for our country and for the Foreign Service, and there are those days when it might seem that the execution of policies more creative and politically connected individuals devise is more than sufficient. But the assessment that “many of the most serious challenges the United States will face in 2021 and beyond will require our diplomats to take the lead” causes the Belfer Center report authors to urge the president and Congress to “restore the State Department’s lead role in … foreign policy.”

They are mindful, as we all are, that exclusion of the organization that has had the most direct connection with the issues being decided—whose members meet frequently with the foreign minister, imbibe the smell of the foreign prison cell, drink tea with warlords and tepid bottles of Coke with gang leaders, observe the voting at the polling station, walk the factory floor—would be foolish.

There is a good amount of rebuilding to be done, and some risks to be taken; but, meanwhile, we should keep our dish right side up and grab the opportunities for greater policy influence as they come. As George Kennan put it: “If State doesn’t take the initiative, others will.”

 

13. The US and China are preparing for war — and Australia is caught in the crosshairs

ABC.net.au · by Stan Grant · March 20, 2021

Excerpts:

“For all America's economic and military might, it is a deeply damaged nation seeking to recapture its former glory in a world where it meets a rival of enormous and growing strength.

China remembers the Korean War while America tries to forget it. The ghosts of wars past are stirring again.

Yet there is another lesson of history: America helped open up China; its markets made China rich.

China even at its most bellicose and belligerent knows war with America would be catastrophic.

The two nations have been better as "friends" than "enemies".

The US and China are preparing for war — and Australia is caught in the crosshairs.”

 

14. Biden's grand strategy for U.S.-China contested islands

washingtontimes.com · by John Stilides

Excerpts:

“A Chinese military assault near the island chain’s shipping lanes could lead to a cutoff of Chinese maritime access to the Indian Ocean’s maritime superhighway, damaging its domestic economy and triggering massive anti-CCP social unrest. India needs credible national and allied naval counter-forces to anti-ship ballistic missiles based in western China to secure its regional interests and future defense capabilities with confidence.

Mr. Biden and other world leaders focused on the key geopolitical and geo-economic issues of the day need to keep sharp eyes on these island contests to prevent seemingly minor diplomatic disputes from escalating into major strategic crises.”

 

15. Iran threatens US Army base and top general

Daily Mail · by Associated Press · March 21, 2021

Now the recent request for increased security and control of boat traffic on the Potomac near Fort McNair makes sense.

But why are the Iranians focused on the Vice Chief of Staff of the Army???? (assuming the intelligence is accurate.

 

16. Sparks Fly In The Alaska Snow - OpEd

eurasiareview.com · by Andrew Hammond · March 21, 2021

Can there be any optimism?

Excerpts:

“Amid all the disagreements, what remains unclear is the degree to which the Biden team may seek to work with Beijing in areas where there are clearly defined common interests, such as climate change. Tackling global warming is a key political priority of both nations and there may be a window of opportunity for a US-China initiative in this area before the UK-hosted UN climate summit in November.

It is sometimes forgotten that a key precursor for the Paris deal in 2015 was a US-China agreement. So, with climate-skeptic Donald Trump out of the White House, this could become a rejuvenated topic of conversation for Beijing and Washington.

Another possible area of collaboration, building on the Stage 1 trade deal negotiated in 2018 and 2019, is the possibility of further economic agreements between the two. The scope for this is underlined by the fact that the Trump agreement covers few of the areas where China is often accused of misdemeanors, from currency manipulation to intellectual property theft.

If the two sides can find such areas of agreement, it will demonstrate that the direction of Washington’s relations with Beijing need not inevitably be a force for greater global tension. Moreover, this may even provide a pathway toward a deeper, strategic partnership that underpins relations in the post-pandemic era.

 

17. Your Addiction to Outrage is Ruining Your Life

Medium · by Pete Ross

This is an old essay but perhaps more relevant than ever with both extremes of the political spectrum focused on employing anger to further their agendas. I see so much anger on social media.  It really is depressing.  But I really do think many do find pleasure in their anger.

 

18. Rich Countries Signed Away a Chance to Vaccinate the World

The New York Times · by Selam Gebrekidan and Matt Apuzzo · March 21, 2021

 

------------

 

“When evil men plot, good men must plan. When evil men burn and bomb, good men must build and bind. When evil men shout ugly words of hatred, good men must commit themselves to the glories of love. Where evil men would seek to perpetuate an unjust status quo, good men must seek to bring into being a real order of justice.”

- Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

 

"I think the important thing about my appointment is not that I will decide cases as a woman, but that I am a woman who will get to decide cases."

- Sandra Day O'Connor

 

"Nothing is more false than the notion that the triumph of Communism is inevitable or that the Communists are steadily pushing the free world into a corner."

- Robert F. Kennedy

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Does North Korea Keep Lloyd Austin Up at Night?

2.  North’s diplomats expelled from Malaysia

3. Washington stresses Seoul’s ‘input’ in NK policy review

4. [Contribution] The Korea-US alliance: A bona fide comprehensive partnership (from South Korean First Vice Foreign Minister)

5. Uncertain future ahead for US-North Korea dialogue

6. North Korean defectors talk about escape, new life in South in English

7. 'I Am the Man' (Korea and refugees and academics)

8. Costa Rica aims to become the Korea of South America

9. U.S. calls on China to play ‘critical’ role in nuke talks

10. North Korean move a decade in the making (Malaysia)

 

1. Does North Korea Keep Lloyd Austin Up at Night?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · March 20, 2021

So much to address in this address essay but I will focus on this excerpt:

“Of course, America’s vast arsenal ensures that North Korea will not sua sponte initiate a nuclear exchange—Kim Jong-un is not suicidal and has demonstrated no desire to die in a radioactive funeral pyre in Pyongyang. Indeed, the North never had any interest in attacking the United States. The ruling Kims simply wanted the United States to stay out of any new round in what amounts to a continuing Korean civil war.”

First, while I cannot prove Kim has any interest in attacking north Korea, I do not think the author can make the definitive statement that the north never had any interest in attacking the north. It is dangerous to build a national security strategy on the assumption the enemy will not attack (Sun Tzu said, "Never assume the enemy will not attack, make yourself invincible"). The author goes on to argue about trading a US city for Seoul and implicitly provides his basic thesis that we should simply abandon South Korea because of the second part of the excerpt above - renewed hostilities would simply be a resumption of the Korean Civil War that began in June 1059 (or perhaps 1948 or even 1945. I agree with the author that the situation on the Korean peninsula is a civil war and that the UN Security Council recognized that its resolution 82-85 when it identified the north as the hostile aggressor and called on member states to come to the aid of South Korea to maintain its freedom. That remains the fundamental conflict - the authoritarian, totalitarian family dynastic dictatorship of the north against the free and democratic South. This is why Para 60 of the 1953 Armistice is so important. We must find a solution to the "Korea question," the unnatural division of the peninsula. The bottomline is the only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

 

2.  North’s diplomats expelled from Malaysia

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

I wonder what is going to happen to all the Malaysia-north Korean joint venture businesses (with Office 39 of north Korea)

 

3. Washington stresses Seoul’s ‘input’ in NK policy review

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · March 19, 2021

This is key to a strong alliance partnership. But differences in views and input will need to be resolved, the most difficult one is ensuring sufficient alignment of strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

 

4.  [Contribution] The Korea-US alliance: A bona fide comprehensive partnership

koreaherald.com · by Choi Jong Kun · March 18, 2021

I wonder if this was published in the Korean language for the Korean public.

No specific mention of north Korea and its threats to the South, the region, and the US except for the allusion to the peace process that the Moon administration desires.

 

5. Uncertain future ahead for US-North Korea dialogue

The Korea Times  · by Kang Seung-woo · March 21, 2021

It is only uncertain because Kim Jong-un is executing a political warfare strategy and is currently refusing to engage. I am sure Kim is trying to shape the environment to try to create the conditions so that the only way for there to be talks is if the US agrees to lift sanctions. The US should not give concessions solely for the possibility of having talks. The US and the ROK/US alliance need to execute a superior form of political warfare to successfully compete with north Korea.

 

6. North Korean defectors talk about escape, new life in South in English

The Korea Times · March 21, 2021

Excerpts:

"I believed the threat of crocodiles, I had even come to believe that I had seen them. I had been delivering these fabricated memories to many people," Pak said, concluding the speech by challenging audience members to think about myths that they might believe are true.

The first prize winner, who identified herself as Gloria, was repatriated back to North Korea twice before she settled in South Korea in 2007. She gave an inspiring speech on how she overcame hardships as a disabled woman who defected from North Korea.

The second prize went to a man who wished to be known as Dave, who entertained the audience with anecdotes about traveling to more than 50 countries since 2015.

Prior to the contest, the refugees were invited to apply through a meeting with FSI co-founders Lartigue and Lee, and then they submitted a draft of their speeches in either Korean or English.”

 

7. 'I Am the Man' (Korea and refugees and academics)

The Korea Times · Casey Lartigue Jr. · March 18, 2021

An interesting perspective on academics and think tanks.

Excerpts:

“My education about academics began in 2002 when I was working as an education policy analyst at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. I had noticed that university professors were declining my invitation to speak at a conference I was organizing to mark the 50th anniversary of the Brown v. Board of Education ruling.

Finally, one professor told me directly: Most university professors look down on think tank scholars, activists, and public speakers. Academics with long careers wouldn't respect that I suddenly appeared and seemed to be on TV a few minutes later.

Almost two decades later, I still believe his words, and see them as an explanation about the treatment of North Korean refugee speakers and authors in academic circles.”

 

8. Costa Rica aims to become the Korea of South America

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com ·  Esther Chung

But it cannot be like South Korea unless it is divided, fights a civil war and has an existential threat to its north.

Okay, my snarky comments aside, it is interesting that Costa Rica chose South Korea as a role model.

 

9. U.S. calls on China to play ‘critical’ role in nuke talks

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

But what incentive does China have to cooperate on north Korea? What is the quid pro quo for Chinese cooperation?

 

10. North Korean move a decade in the making (Malaysia)

NST  · by Shazelina Zainul Abidin  · March 20, 2021  

 

-----------

 

“When evil men plot, good men must plan. When evil men burn and bomb, good men must build and bind. When evil men shout ugly words of hatred, good men must commit themselves to the glories of love. Where evil men would seek to perpetuate an unjust status quo, good men must seek to bring into being a real order of justice.”

- Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

 

"I think the important thing about my appointment is not that I will decide cases as a woman, but that I am a woman who will get to decide cases."

- Sandra Day O'Connor

 

"Nothing is more false than the notion that the triumph of Communism is inevitable or that the Communists are steadily pushing the free world into a corner."

- Robert F.Kennedy

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Antony Blinken’s Finest Hour

2. Americans are not unanimously war-weary on Afghanistan

3. Vaccine fears: Why inoculating the force will be difficult

4. On The Mindless Menace of Violence - Robert F. Kennedy 1968

5.  Perspective | Bipartisan political rhetoric about Asia leads to anti-Asian violence here

6. Special Ops Aren’t A Substitute For Strategy

7. Slandering the U.S. Military . . . Again

8. The British Army has a Blackbelt in 'Bullshito'

9.  Command Senior Enlisted Leader Assignment (JSOC MI Bde  to SOCKOR)

10. Good Climate Policy Should Fight Corruption and Organized Crime

11. The federal government faces ‘wicked problems.’ It needs more expertise, a new report says.

12. Drones Could One Day Make Up 40% of a Carrier Air Wing, Navy Says

13. New Pentagon No. 2 warns China's "aggressive" actions pose threat

14. European spies are alarmed after a scientist with top security clearance was caught working for China, sources say

15. Will the Biden Administration Shine Light on Shadowy Special Ops Programs?

16. India, US to expand military engagement, defense ties

17. Bitter Alaska Meeting Complicates Already Shaky U.S.-China Ties

18. Russian Interference in 2020 Included Influencing Trump Associates, Report Says

19. Strengthen Media Literacy to Win the Fight Against Misinformation (SSIR)

20. Behind America’s Botched Vaccination Rollout: Fragmented Communication, Misallocated Supply

21. Foreigners in their own country: Asian Americans at State Department confront discrimination

 

1. Antony Blinken’s Finest Hour

Bloomberg · by Eli Lake · March 19, 2021

And China showed its true colors.  I am surprised we didn't see a shoe banging incident like Khrushchev at the UN.

 

2. Americans are not unanimously war-weary on Afghanistan

The Brookings Institution · by Madiha Afzal and Israa Saber · March 19, 2021

A provocative essay.

Conclusion: “The American public is unsure about the next steps to take in Afghanistan, and for good reason: The decision is a very difficult one, with downsides to both staying and leaving. The public seems to be partly ambivalent, partly divided on the correct course of action. Veterans groups are also divided on the right policy decision. What’s clear is that the common refrain in policy debates that “Americans want out” is not accurate and should not be presented as the driving force for efforts to withdraw from Afghanistan.”

 

3. Vaccine fears: Why inoculating the force will be difficult

militarytimes.com · by Geoff Ziezulewicz · March 15, 2021

This is really troubling on so many levels.  And if COVID 19 persists I fear this could have long term consequences for the military to be able to "fight through" this virus as well as possible future biological attacks.

 

4. On The Mindless Menace of Violence - Robert F. Kennedy 1968

On The Mindless Menace of Violence

A timely reminder from 1968 that we still need to reflect upon in 2021.

Video at the link and text below.  I think the video of the speech is longer with more remarks than in the text below and in any copy of the speech I have found on the internet (which differ among sources - I have posted two versions below).

I think it is best to spend 20 minutes listening to the speech.

 

5. Perspective | Bipartisan political rhetoric about Asia leads to anti-Asian violence here

The Washington Post ·  by Viet Thanh Nguyen and Janelle Wong · March 19, 2021

Conclusion: “Still, history tells us something important: The experience of racial discrimination does not happen for any group in isolation; white supremacy depends on pitting people of color against one another so they do not see their shared cause. Racial profiling does not stem from the same stereotypes for Asian Americans, Black people, Muslims and other groups, but it serves a common purpose — to define who is essential and who belongs to the nation. The case of Asian Americans shows the varied ways in which the boundaries of belonging are enforced through old ideas that circulate over generations. The best way to keep Asian Americans safe is for the United States to improve its economy and promote global equality for everyone, without fearmongering about the countries their ancestors left.”

 

6. Special Ops Aren’t A Substitute For Strategy

breakingdefense.com · by Stewart Parker

CT versus irregular warfare is not either/or  but both/and. (and as we know CT is one of the five mission areas of IW per the DODD 3000.7 and the new Irregular Warfare Annex to the NDS). 

What the article focuses most on is the national mission force conducting CT. 

This is because the primary CT force is the national mission force and it is not a force that should be shifted to other areas of IW - it is not an appropriate force for FID on a large scale, for UW, for COIN or for stability operations).  The conventional military is the most appropriate force for stability operations (which is required both in the IW context but also in the post conflict phase of major theater or state on state warfare).  Special Forces, Civil Affairs, Psychological Operations, certain SEAL teams (not 6), Marine Special Operations Teams, and selected AFSOC units (6th SOS, STS, CCT,  and certain air units) are the appropriate forces for FID and UW (and support to UW), the two most important missions in IW or the gray zone.

We need to be able to compete with the revisionist and rogue powers of China, Russia, Iran, and north Korea in the political warfare space which must be a national effort of statecraft (or irregular statecraft  - See LTG Cleveland's work on an American War of Irregular Warfare, page 217, "...there is

a need for the United States to formalize and develop what might be best called irregular statecraft. Irregular statecraft is a form of competition in which state and nonstate actors employ all means, short of war, to support friends and allies and erode the influence, legitimacy, and authority of adversaries and is the modern equivalent of what George Kennan described, in 1948, as political warfare." https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA300/PEA301-1/RAND_PEA301-1.pdf).   Irregular Warfare is the military contribution to political warfare or irregular starcraft.

And as I have written, SOF makes an important contribution to political warfare through its three trinities: Irregular Warfare, Unconventional Warfare, and support to political warfare and its comparative advantages of influence, governance, and support to indigenous forces and populations.  At the same time elements of SOF will focus 100% effort on the no fail missions of CT and CP.

 

7. Slandering the U.S. Military . . . Again

National Review Online · by Mackubin Thomas Owens · March 20, 2021

A difficult critique.

Regarding trust within the force, what is the rank-and-file soldier to think when both politicians and

 

8. The British Army has a Blackbelt in 'Bullshito'

wavellroom.com · by Ryan Noordally · March 19, 2021

We are going to have to use the  new term we learned for martial arts - "bullshito."  

This is an interesting critique of the British military but applies well beyond.

 

9. Command Senior Enlisted Leader Assignment (JSOC MI Bde  to SOCKOR)

defense.gov · March 19, 2021

 

10. Good Climate Policy Should Fight Corruption and Organized Crime

thedispatch.com · by Emanuele Ottolenghi · March 19,2021

Conclusion: “The president’s instincts to tackle climate change and reverse the tide of global corruption and crime are correct. What the administration needs to emphasize is that the two policies are not separate, but integral to one another. Punishing those who, through their greed and crime, compound the threat of climate change, should become a priority of the Biden Administration.”

 

11. The federal government faces ‘wicked problems.’ It needs more expertise, a new report says.

The Washington Post · by Eric Yoder · March 18, 2021

Although not necessarily the focus of this report It needs personnel who can understand, plan, orchestrate, and conduct political warfare, irregular statecraft and irregular warfare. 

Perhaps Congress recognized the military needs a capability to deal with "wicked problems"  of irregular warfare in the current 2021 NDAA (SEC 1299L below).  What we really need is a national level center for all of the US government agencies to be able to focus on political warfare and irregular statecraft.  I believe by definition political warfare and irregular statecraft focus on "wicked problems."

And I think Congress recognized the wicked problems we must address when it defined irregular warfare this way in the 2018 NDAA: "Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.”

 

12. Drones Could One Day Make Up 40% of a Carrier Air Wing, Navy Says

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Where will the pilots for these UAS be located? On the Carrier or ashore?

 

13. New Pentagon No. 2 warns China's "aggressive" actions pose threat

NBC News · by Dan De Luce · March 19, 2021

DEPSECDEF makes news at the National War College.

 

14. European spies are alarmed after a scientist with top security clearance was caught working for China, sources say

Business Insider · by Mitch Prothero

Excerpts:

“A third intelligence official from a NATO country said that the Estonian case — where Chinese agents used the cover of conference trips and academic settings to recruit, debrief and even reward Kõuts — was typical of the Chinese playbook.

"They love the academic settings," said the official who cannot be named in the press. "China heavily emphasizes collection of intellectual property, scientific research, and industrial techniques as opposed to the Russians who focus more on traditional hard government intelligence collection.

"This means the work is often done in more casual conference settings where it's easier to recruit. And the rewards are easy to cover up... Luxury trips disguised as academic conferences, fine dining or prostitutes at the legitimate conferences, it's pretty easy to work assets this way."

European spies are alarmed after a scientist with top security clearance was caught working for China, sources say.”

 

15. Will the Biden Administration Shine Light on Shadowy Special Ops Programs?

The Intercept · by Nick Turse · March 20, 2021

Turse's anti-military, and specifically anti-SOF agenda, is on full display.  He even dredges up the JCET reporting from Dana Priest in the 1990s.

 

16. India, US to expand military engagement, defense ties

AP · by Sheikh Saaliq · March 20, 2021

Excerpts:

“Austin is making the first visit to India by a top member of President Joe Biden’s administration. His visit follows a meeting last week between leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the United States, which together make up the four Indo-Pacific nations known as the Quad.

The Quad is seen as a counterweight to China, who critics say is flexing its military muscle in the South China Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait and along its northern border with India.

China has called the Quad an attempt to contain its ambitions.

Austin’s Indian counterpart, Singh, said the talks were focused on “expanding military-to-military engagement.”

“We are determined to realize the full potential of comprehensive global strategic partnership,” Singh said.”

 

17.  Bitter Alaska Meeting Complicates Already Shaky U.S.-China Ties

WSJ · by William Mauldin

Excerpt: “Beyond that, foreign policy specialists said, the acrimony shows shifting perceptions that each has about the balance of power between the two nations, increasing the likelihood of miscalculation and conflicts over hot spots like control of critical technologies and China’s claims against Taiwan and Japan and in the South China Sea.”

 

18. Russian Interference in 2020 Included Influencing Trump Associates, Report Says

useful idiots?

The New York Times · by Julian E. Barnes · March 16, 2021

 

19. Strengthen Media Literacy to Win the Fight Against Misinformation (SSIR)

ssir.org · by Kristin M. Lord & Katya Vogt

The words of the 2017 NSS should still apply:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Media literacy is an important concept. As I peruse social media and listen to the critiques of CNN and FOX (as well as others) what I notice is the critiques that are echoed are those of FOX critiquing CNN and those of CNN critiquing FOX. People are not conducting their own analysis but instead are simply parroting the critiques they hear in their own echo chambers. I like to conduct my own media experiment. Whenever I hear a critique of FOX on CNN I switch the channel to FOX and watch it. Whenever I hear a critique of CNN on FOX I switch to CNN. As I add up the time spent on each channel I find that I spend more on CNN because there is more criticism of CNN on FOX than there is of FOX on CNN (though the amount of criticism of FOX on CNN is increasing quickly since the change of administrations).

More importantly, what I have found is that the criticisms are more often than not based on misinterpretations and/or spin that on objectively analysis though one network does this more than the other. And few people actually watch both to make their own judgments, they take what they hear on their preferred media outlet as gospel.

 

20. Behind America’s Botched Vaccination Rollout: Fragmented Communication, Misallocated Supply

WSJ · by Sarah Krouse, Brianna Abbott and Jared S. Hopkins

A useful initial AAR.

 

21. Foreigners in their own country: Asian Americans at State Department confront discrimination

Politico · by Ryan Heath · March 16, 2021

 

--------------

 

"To sin by silence when we should protest, Makes cowards out of men."

- Ella Wheeler Wilcox

 

"Silence becomes a kind of crime when it operates as a cover or an encouragement to the guilty."

-Thomas Paine

 

"There are times when you have to speak because silence is betrayal."

-Ursula K. Le Guin

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Voice of America:  [Washington Talk] “The Biden Administration… Commitment to 'Denuclearization of North Korea'”

2. Fear and Insecurity: Addressing North Korean Threat Perceptions

3. Time For South Korea to Take the Lead on North Korea

4. President Biden And The Making Of A New US Policy On North Korea - Analysis

5. UN says no international staff left in North Korea

6. Blinken says U.S., China had 'candid' talks on N. Korea

7. Sanctions relief not an option to bring N. Korea back to dialogue: Harris

8. Failure to mediate between allies will lead to indifference from US

9. Why Is Gov't So Terrified of Kim Jong-un's Sister?

10. Russia's role in Korean Peninsula draws attention

11. Analysis: Denuclearisation of what? U.S. switch on North Korea wording raises debate

 

1.  Voice of America:  [Washington Talk] “The Biden Administration… Commitment to 'Denuclearization of North Korea'”
VOA Korean

Young Gyo Kim hosts Bruce Bennett and me for this week's Washington Talk. As you listen to the comments please keep in mind the target audience for this VOA broadcast is the regime elite in Pyongyang, north Korea. Some of my more provocative comments did not make the cut (north Korea as a Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State and that Kim Jong-un prioritizes his nuclear weapons and military over the welfare of the Korean people in the north as well as Kim's attempt to make Biden's new Korea policy dead on arrival and my explanation of the recent comment training using the Baduk analogy.) But it is only a 20 minute show so not everything can make the cut yet we were still able to make some comments that should not be well received by Kim Jong-un.

 

2. Fear and Insecurity: Addressing North Korean Threat Perceptions

hudson.org · by Patrick M. Cronin

The 38 page report can be downloaded here: 

Like Dr. Jung Pak (now Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific), I believe Kim fears the Korean people living in the north most of all, even more than the United States.  I think we should bear that in mind as we read this excellent report from Patrick Cronin.

Key Excerpts:

“But humility is needed when it comes to separating North Korean fact from fiction. After all, North Korea appears as determined as ever to deploy and modernize a military arsenal that includes nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that can strike the United States. Accepting the new title of General Secretary, Kim Jong-un told the Eighth Party Congress in January that he planned to build both “small and light” and “super-large” nuclear weapons. Kim’s rationale for his nuclear program is undoubtedly to promote political objectives—such as preventing regime change from either within or without—so that he can unlock economic development and retain power for years. But just because Kim focuses on political goals doesn’t mean that he lacks grander military plans or other ambitions.

Even if the Kim regime were entirely transparent, it is not easy to view a traditional enemy without prejudice. Assessing an adversary requires overcoming cognitive bias based on emotion, entrenched views, and experience. Neither the Kim family and its cadre of elite advisors nor decision-makers within the United States and South Korea are impervious to the profound dynamics—political and psychological, explicit and implicit—that produce confirmation bias. Further, judging another actor’s threat perceptions requires possessing an objective sense of oneself—an elementary axiom of strategy. The requirement harkens back to the classical Chinese aphorism of Sun Tzu: “He who knows the enemy and himself will never in a hundred battles be at risk.”

 

3. Time For South Korea to Take the Lead on North Korea

19fortyfive.com · by Bonnie Kristian · March 19, 2021

This is an appeasement strategy - end exercises and lift sanctions in the hope it will bring Kim to the negotiating table with South Korea.  Kim Jong-un could not have written a better essay to support his strategy to split the ROK/US alliance, and allow him coerce, extort, and use force to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.  I bet this essay would win an award in Pyongyang.  The Propaganda and Agitation department might derive some talking points from this.

 

4. President Biden And The Making Of A New US Policy On North Korea - Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by Sandip Kumar Mishra · March 20, 2021

The author concludes with a seven point summary of some of the key issues. 

Excerpt: “Fast forward to 2021. In another move, the Biden administration wants to bring in Quad countries into the process. North Korean denuclearisation is one of the five points in the joint statement released on 12 March following the first Quad Summit. Approaching the North Korean nuclear issue via Quad means that China’s cooperation may not be sought, or it could be considered marginal. It also suggests that that the US has changed its policy stand: from the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula—which was agreed to in the 2018 Singapore Summit—to denuclearisation only of North Korea. These changes could herald a widening gap between the US and South Korean approaches, with the President Moon Jae-in administration seeing China as critical to the process. Seoul is also prepared to denuclearise the peninsula if this covers North Korea in its ambit.”

 

5. UN says no international staff left in North Korea

AP · by Hyung-Jin Kim · March 20, 2021

The hard target gets harder to assess.  Another source of information dries up.

 

6. Blinken says U.S., China had 'candid' talks on N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 20, 2021

But did it include yelling and shoe banging?

 

7. Sanctions relief not an option to bring N. Korea back to dialogue: Harris

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 20, 2021

I concur with Ambassador, Admiral Harris (he needs one more title with an A for some good alliteration - I suppose we could add Aviator since he is a Naval Aviator as well).

Excerpt:

“The former ambassador highlighted the importance of joint defense posture of South Korea and the U.S., arguing North Korea poses the most imminent threat to the U.S.

"I've said when I was PACOM commander, and I've said since then, that the biggest threat the United States faces, the most imminent threat, is the threat from North Korea," said Harris.

"It's okay to be optimistic about the future. It's even okay to be hopeful about the future. But as I've said before, hope is not a course of action when dealing with North Korea. So you need to have the fundamental military readiness to respond to those threats from North Korea," he added.

To this end, Harris welcomed the recent conclusion of negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. to renew their Special Measures Agreement (SMA), which determines Seoul's share of the cost in maintaining some 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea.”

 

8. Failure to mediate between allies will lead to indifference from US

donga.com· March 20, 2021

A critique of the  2+2 and the difference between joint statements and comments to the press. And a warning.

Conclusion: "Joint response by South Korea and the U.S. is desperately needed in such a sensitive situation where the U.S.-China conflicts are worsening and North Korea is plotting provocations. Therefore, North Korea policies to be revealed in the next few weeks need to be “fully-coordinated strategies” as pledged. If the next joint statement also states there is no major difference yet each country has different ideas in reality, South Korea and the U.S. will expose missteps in places, causing misjudgment by China and the North. Moreover, the worst case where the U.S. decides to sit back and the alliance malfunctions in crisis may not be a far-fetched scenario."

 

9. Why Is Gov't So Terrified of Kim Jong-un's Sister?

english.chosun.com

Because she is an evil woman.

 

10. Russia's role in Korean Peninsula draws attention

The Korea Times · March 20, 2021

Russia = spoiler?

 

11. Analysis: Denuclearisation of what? U.S. switch on North Korea wording raises debate

Reuters · by Josh Smith · March 18, 2021

As I have written I think this is a useful debate.  I used to be a hardover on denuclearization of north Korea.  But I'm willing to accept denuclearization of the entire Korean peninsula if we use that to call out the regime's strategy to break the alliance and dominate the peninsula as well as how the north has failed to live up to all the agreements that have signed that call for denuclearization of the peninsula. while at the same time the South has compiled.

 

---------------

 

"To sin by silence when we should protest, Makes cowards out of men."

- Ella Wheeler Wilcox

 

"Silence becomes a kind of crime when it operates as a cover or an encouragement to the guilty."

-Thomas Paine

 

"There are times when you have to speak because silence is betrayal."

-Ursula K. Le Guin

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Testy Exchange in Alaska Signals a More Confrontational China

2. How to deal with China

3. FDD | The Sprint to Field the Army Force of the Future

4. The Reality of War Should Define Information Warfare

5. Humility in American Grand Strategy

6. Beyond Colossus or Collapse: Five Myths Driving American Debates about China

7. An Irregular Upgrade to Operational Design

8. Former Green Beret, whom Trump pardoned for alleged murder, won’t get Silver Star or SF tab back, Army rules

9. How SecDef Austin Can Make the Most of His India Visit

10. China brings six lies to Anchorage

11. China Hates This: Could Disbursed Bases Help America Win the Next Big War?

12. This could be Army Futures Command’s moment of truth

13. Secret Plans Detail Failures of U.S. Commandos in Africa

14. Pacquiao intends to run for president, says Lacson

15. Ex-Special Forces soldier charged with assaulting cops in Capitol riot

16. Book Review: Scott Anderson - The Quiet Americans - Four CIA Spies At The Dawn Of The Cold War - A Tragedy In Three Acts

17. Exclusive: New GOP Bill Hits Back against Chinese Funding of U.S. Think Tanks

18. National Security Professionals Call for Action on Hate Crimes and Racism Against Asian-Americans

 

1. Testy Exchange in Alaska Signals a More Confrontational China

The New York Times · by Steven Lee Myers · March 19, 2021

It would have been great to be a fly on the wall in the closed session yesterday and today. But I think this is good to allow China to expose its strategy and put its true nature on public display.

 

2. How to deal with China

The Economist · March 20, 2021

The subtitle says it all. We are going to name our grand strategy: "The Epic Global Contest" (autocracy versus liberal values). So rather than Great Power Competition (GPC) we will have Epic Global Contest (EPC).

 

3. FDD | The Sprint to Field the Army Force of the Future

fdd.org · March 17, 2021

You can view the event at the link and read the transcript here.  

 

4. The Reality of War Should Define Information Warfare

usni.org · by  Mike Dahm· March 18, 2021

Conclusion: “Information warfare capabilities, both offensive and defensive, must be integrated with traditional warfare areas to realize success in the modern battlespace. Information warfare’s power to enable and drive offensive operations while denying or manipulating enemy perceptions of the battlespace is unlikely to conjure victories in isolation. Information warfare capabilities defined as combat capabilities will only be effective in the context of consequences. As a weathered senior chief once pointed out, when all is said and done, those real-world consequences involve killing people and destroying things. It is an unpleasant reality, but one that must be acknowledged when giving priority to information warfare in the information environment. For all the information challenges facing the U.S. military—from data management to winning foreign hearts and minds to recruiting the next generation of warriors through social media—information warfare will be a critical core competency in future armed conflict. DoD should define its terms, develop operational concepts for information warfare, and shift leadership and resources to enable its forces to fight and win in the information age.”

 

5. Humility in American Grand Strategy

warontherocks.com · by Mathew Burrows and Robert A. Manning  · March 17, 2021

Conclusion:

“U.S. strategy thus must begin with a new mental map, to align means with ends in a pluralistic world. It means transitioning from a model of primacy to primus inter pares, a sharing of both power and responsibility. Polling data shows Americans want the United States to remain engaged, but also want others to do their fair share. This suggests that to the degree partners demonstrate burden-sharing, the U.S. public would see not just the costs but also the benefits of global engagement.

A starting point is the reality that international systems work to the degree major powers are invested in them. A grand strategy guided by this mentality would, for example, seek a balance of interests with China. It would use smart diplomacy to test the proposition that Beijing’s aspirations and its bottom lines may be different, and thus, Chinese interests may not always be incompatible with U.S. ones. Washington should not just assume all differences are set in stone, but also identify areas with some overlap. In the latter case, the United States would enhance its leverage both by its military and technological strength and building coalitions to counter-balance China. The collective weight of, say, the United States, European Union, Japan, and Australia on World Trade Organization reform is likely to roll back Beijing’s predatory industrial policies on subsidies and state-owned enterprises. But the United States must be prepared to compromise with the European Union, Japan, and Australia to achieve a common position, not assume they will always follow dictation by Washington.

In practical terms, it means that alliances are an important base line, and that power is situational. Ad hoc multilateralism is increasingly the key to problem-solving — a variable geometry of shifting issue-specific coalitions (e.g., the P5+1 on Iran, the Six-Party talks on North Korea, a major emitters group on climate). There remains a desire for credible U.S. leadership. This approach, with the United States enfranchising partners in decision-making to pool power tailored to specific global problems, would foster a wider sense of inclusion, legitimizing U.S. power, and would be more likely to sustain domestic support.”

 

6. Beyond Colossus or Collapse: Five Myths Driving American Debates about China

warontherocks.com · by Evan S. Medeiros and Jude Blanchette · March 19, 2021

I expect Evan will be taking a senior position in the administration in the coming years.He has to be part of the deep bench that will be necessary to sustain foreign policy over the entire term.

Excerpts:

“Based on these and other well-informed assessments of Chinese capabilities and its calculus, U.S. strategy needs to reflect an evolving mixture of security balancing, institutional binding, and dialogue and engagement. U.S. strategy toward China needs to do a better job of connecting the problem and the solution and rejecting a “one size fits all” approach driven by generic ideas like competition, pushback, or regime change. While there is consensus that the United States needs to make deep investments in its own domestic capabilities, there should be a more vigorous debate about where — and how — it confronts and competes with China internationally. Some highly competitive policies will be needed to blunt and degrade Chinese capabilities, such as in the military and cyber realms. In other domains, U.S. strategy should focus on deterring coercion and aggression, delimiting options, and, where possible, shaping China’s choices. Yet at the same time, dialogue and engagement are essential to managing competition and preventing crises, while also ensuring strong and consistent international support for such a variegated strategy.

Regardless of where one comes down on the precise mix of policies that the United States and its allies should adopt, the first step is for debate to be based on a cleareyed assessment of China that rejects popular myths and accepts unpopular realities about the country’s capabilities, intentions, strengths and weaknesses. Tilting at windmills is not now, nor has it ever been, the appropriate foundation for good strategy.”

 

7. An Irregular Upgrade to Operational Design

warontherocks.com · by Brian Petit, Steve Ferenzi, and Kevin Bilms · March 19, 2021

Brian Petit is one of our very best thinkers in the Special Forces Regiment. I use his book in my class as a core text.

Conclusion:

“These five alternative and additive operational design elements can help the military optimize operational approaches throughout all stages of competition. Irregular warfare is not a “special operations thing” — it’s a joint responsibility. Just as some of us in the policy world have made the case for rethinking how we describe irregular warfare activities, the military should reconsider how to plan for them.

As emphasized earlier, these new elements are evolutionary, not revolutionary. There is no need to cast aside traditional concepts. Existing operational design remains useful when thinking about large armies colliding on the battlefield with the purpose of destroying each other. Building on well understood and timeless principles will help new approaches gain acceptance across the joint force. A radical manifesto may be admired but it is more likely to be cast aside.

Now these new ideas should be codified into doctrine. Doctrine isn’t sexy — no argument there. But almost everyone in uniform can agree that unless codified, ideas will rarely translate into professional military education and joint planning efforts. This is what “institutionalizing irregular warfare” means in practice. An irregular upgrade for operational design will aid the United States in competing indirectly and asymmetrically to advance its interests without a catastrophic military confrontation.”

 

8. Former Green Beret, whom Trump pardoned for alleged murder, won’t get Silver Star or SF tab back, Army rules

armytimes.com · by Todd South · March 18, 2021

What is troubling is not so much the merits of the argument or the decision but of the timing of the release of the decision (just like the 2 new 4 star combatant commanders just announced).. This shows the severe civil-military relations problem that has developed over the past four years. This must be corrected.

Excerpts:

“Although the Army reached the decision not to restore the SF tab or the Silver Star to Golsteyn in June, it did not announce the decision in the final months of Trump’s presidency, USA Today reported.

..

“Clearly, we have seen military departments obey the direction of the Commander in Chief in other cases and, inexplicably, the Army defied the President,” Golsteyn said. “It shouldn’t be a surprise the findings of the Army Board were released in November 2020 and not mailed to me for 2 more months, after President Trump left office, so my case could languish in the quagmire of Presidential transition.”

 

9. How SecDef Austin Can Make the Most of His India Visit

defenseone.com · by Vikram J. Singh and Joe Felter

Excerpts:

“For two decades, the U.S.-India defense relationship has deepened ties between the world's oldest and largest democracies. Shared security concerns ranging from terrorism to Chinese military modernization and aggression remain the strategic basis for the partnership. With foundational defense agreements for deeper cooperation on logistics, secure communications, industrial cooperation and geospatial information sharing now in place, the potential for substantive and concrete action has never been greater.

Secretary Austin and Minister Singh are well positioned to lead efforts that can deliver on the promise of building even stronger US—India ties and greater Indo-Pacific stability through more robust military cooperation. Beyond these two major defense partners, it is in the interests of all states sharing a similar vision for the region that they succeed.”

 

10. China brings six lies to Anchorage

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · March 18, 2021

Excerpt:

“Finally, the Global Times says that "If the U.S. is willing to coexist and cooperate with China in peace, China welcomes that and will work hard to make that relationship work. If the U.S. is determined to engage in confrontation, China will fight to the end."

Put another way: Kneel to our rules or face our force. Blinken and Sullivan might have their work cut out for them.”

 

11. China Hates This: Could Disbursed Bases Help America Win the Next Big War?

The National Interest · by Robert Beckhusen · March 19, 2021

What is the proper balance?

 

12. This could be Army Futures Command’s moment of truth

Defense News · by Bradley Bowman and Maj. Jared Thompson · March 19, 2021

Excerpts:

“So what is AFC’s secret so far? It begins with a clear goal of rapidly fielding new combat capabilities in the next few years.

To accomplish that goal, AFC is successfully using flexible acquisition authorities provided by Congress. The command and its eight CFTs have also adopted a soldier-focused, prototype-driven acquisition approach that incorporates feedback from the field and leverages middle-tier acquisition processes and nontraditional other transaction authorities. Where possible, the CFTs are baselining new capabilities from mature technologies, and then incrementally developing new capabilities.

If AFC continues these practices, it may be able to avoid past failures and convert promising R&D programs into fielded combat capabilities that America’s service members urgently need to deter potential aggression from Beijing.”

 

13. Secret Plans Detail Failures of U.S. Commandos in Africa

Vice · by Nick Turse

Although you have to take Nick Turse's spin with a grain of salt, this is not a good look for AFRICOM and SOCAFRICOM, which of course fits with Turse's anti-military and aunty-SOF agenda.

 

14. Pacquiao intends to run for president, says Lacson

news.abs-cbn.com · by ABS-CBN News · March 19, 2021

This will be interesting.

 

16. Book Review: Scott Anderson - The Quiet Americans - Four CIA Spies At The Dawn Of The Cold War - A Tragedy In Three Acts

hotpress.com · by Pat Carty

 

17. Exclusive: New GOP Bill Hits Back against Chinese Funding of U.S. Think Tanks

National Review Online · by Jimmy Quinn · March 17, 2021

 

18. National Security Professionals Call for Action on Hate Crimes and Racism Against Asian-Americans

defenseone.com · by Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders in National Security · March 17, 2021

 

-----------------

 

"Don't think of knocking out another person's brains because he differs in opinion from you. It will be as rational to knock yourself on the head because you differ from yourself ten years ago."

- James Burgh

 

Mental horsepower doesn’t guarantee mental dexterity. No matter how much brainpower you have, if you lack the motivation to change your mind, you’ll miss many occasions to think again. Research reveals that the higher you score on an IQ test, the more likely you are to fall for ste­reotypes, because you’re faster at recognizing patterns. And recent experiments suggest that the smarter you are, the more you might struggle to update your beliefs.

- Adam Grant in Think Again

 

"There are four kinds of people in this world:

those who make things happen;

those who watch things happen;

those who wonder what happened;

those who don’t know that anything happened!

I knew from a very early age that I wanted to be first on that list.” 

- Mary Kay Ash

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea says it will sever diplomatic relations with Malaysia for extraditing citizen to U.S.

2.  S. Korea, U.S. launch working-level policy dialogue

3.  Did Moon Block Use of 'Denuclearization' in Joint Statement with U.S.?

4. US Secretary of Defense says it will take some time to meet OPCON transition conditions

5. Pentagon chief leaves S. Korea after three-day stay for security talks

6. Asia trip by Blinken, Austin successful, will help advance N. Korea policy: Knapper

7. Persuading U.S. to ease sanctions 'top priority' for implementing inter-Korean summit agreements: poll

8. North Korea strengthens monitoring of border to prepare for lifting of border blockade

9. North Korean WMD pose threat to neighbors, violate UN Security Council resolutions: US official

10. North Korea-US tug of war casts shadow over dialogue

11. Parliamentary leaders of South Korea, US hold virtual meeting

12. Hitting Nerve With Kim Jong Un Regime Takes Just a Few Words

13. Gaps to fill in ‘ironclad’ alliance between Korea, US

14.  EXPLAINER: NKorea’s anger to US may actually be an overture

15. Biden's Conundrum: South Korea's Embarrassing Stance On Human Rights

16. A Day Late, But Not a Dollar Short: The New U.S.- Korea Burden-Sharing Agreement

 

1. N. Korea says it will sever diplomatic relations with Malaysia for extraditing citizen to U.S.

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 19, 2021

north Korea is going to cut off its nose to spite its face. Malaysia is a hub for Office 39 front companies that work to bring in hard currency for the Kim family regime's royal court economy. At an HRNK conference yesterday on north Korean proliferation I heard Dr. Bruce Bechtol mention there are hundreds of front companies there, many co-owned with Malaysian partners. Malaysia has been an ideal hub for the regime's illicit activities. So this could be good news though I cannot imagine the regime being so foolish to cut off a source of revenue.

 

2. S. Korea, U.S. launch working-level policy dialogue

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 19, 2021

Excellent development. The Bilateral Policy Dialogue. I hope they will maintain continuous virtual connectivity in between in person meetings.

 

3. Did Moon Block Use of 'Denuclearization' in Joint Statement with U.S.?

english.chosun.com

This controversy is turning out to be very useful.

First, the difference between denuclearization of north Korea and denuclearization of the Korean peninsula helps identify individuals and groups and their specific agendas toward north Korea. We do really see a difference among the countries as well as the Korea watcher community.

More importantly the discussion of the two views helps us to really expose north Korea strategy. We actually have to opportunity to educate more people by bringing attention ott he fact that the north's use of denuclearization of the Korea peninsula is about attacking its description of US hostile and is designed to end the ROK/US alliance, remove troops from the Korean peninsula and end extended deterrence over the ROK and Japan. 

Second, the use of either phrase can help us continue to call out the regime. Denuclearization of the Korean peninsula was used in the 1992 north-South Agreement on Denuclearization. The South has complied and the north has not. It has also been used in various successive agreements and UN Security COuncil Resolutions, namely UNSCR 1718. However, despite its use in an aspirational sense the UNSCRs focus on north Korean compliance to eliminate its nuclear and ballistic missile (and all WMD) programs.

So we can use denuclearization of the Korean peninsula if we use it to both recognize the regime's strategy and to call out Kim for failing to compy with past agreements. We could make use of this in an information and influence campaign (if we had one) as well as at the negotiating table.

The OpEd below is extremely critical of the Moon administration with a brutal conclusion:

“South Korea stands to suffer the most from North Korea's nuclear ambitions, and under normal circumstances South Korea should be the first to include "denuclearization" in any joint statement with the U.S. When asked why the word was omitted, the Foreign Ministry made the ludicrous claim that there was "not enough space," as if the weasel phrases pussyfooting around the issue did not take up a lot more space. The aim of the Moon administration is to stage another diplomatic photo op with North Korea, ideally featuring Biden and Kim, so that a ruling-party candidate can magically win the next presidential election in March 2022. That will not happen, and the government will bitterly regret its decision.”

 

4. US Secretary of Defense says it will take some time to meet OPCON transition conditions

donga.com · March 19, 2021

We must face facts. The conditions are necessary to ensure the security of the ROK. We want to conclude the OPCO transition process in a way that enhances the security of the ROK and supports the strategic interests of both countries. There are many benefits which I have articulated over the years (and I guess I will have to do again soon) that outweigh the risks especially in the long term. The process must be properly executed and the requisite investment in time, resources, force structure, and training must be made to successfully complete the transition. To do otherwise would be the height of irresponsibility and put the security of the ROK at great risk.

 

5. Pentagon chief leaves S. Korea after three-day stay for security talks

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 19, 2021

The most successful aspect of the trip is three fold - the US demonstrated the partnership of diplomacy and defense, the combined focus on the strength of the alliance, and getting all the important issues out on the table so they can be worked. There is a lot of work to do but we are seeing the processes put in place and new relationships being developed (and old ones renewed). Yes we are seeing a number of criticisms, particularly from the ROK side, but as I said we have issues to be worked.

 

6. Asia trip by Blinken, Austin successful, will help advance N. Korea policy: Knapper

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 19, 2021

Good comments and assessment.

I have heard that Marc is under consideration as the next US Ambassador to the ROK, as is Yuri Kim (the current US Ambassador to Albania).

The important point is close alliance consultation for the policy review. Regarding Choe Sun-hui's statement this week: As I said, the focus of the Biden administration is allies first. That was the purpose of this visit. He and Secretary Blinken also know not to be swayed by north Korean propaganda and rhetoric. While we have to take north Korean statements, we also do not have to react to every one of them since we understand how they fit into the regime’s strategy to drive a wedge into and do harm to the ROK/US alliance and by supporting its blackmail diplomacy line of effort. There is no need to overreact to the regime's rhetoric as long as we understand but the nature of the. regime and its strategy.

Excerpts:

“Knapper, as did Blinken, stressed the importance of completing the U.S. policy review through close consultations with U.S. allies.

"Secretary Blinken got virtually the same question yesterday here in Seoul, and I think his response says it all -- that this moment, we are here and listening closely to what our allies have to say, our allies in Seoul and Tokyo. That's the message we are really focused on at this moment as we continue with our DPRK or North Korea policy review," he said when asked for a response to the message from North Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui.”

 

7. Persuading U.S. to ease sanctions 'top priority' for implementing inter-Korean summit agreements: poll

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 19, 2021

This is troubling and problematic. It is this kind of thinking that will undermine not only diplomacy in Northeast Asia but security as well. This is surely the Moon administration's position and desire. This completely misunderstands the purpose, intent, and capabilities of sanctions. And anyone who thinks that sanctions relief will change Kim's behavior and bring him to the negotiation table to negotiate in good faith needs to go take a drug test. If we lift sanctions without compliance we not only undermine the credibility of sanctions Kim Jong-un will assess that as successful blackmail diplomacy in support of his political warfare strategy and he will double down on his strategy. Lifting sanctions will not lead to denuclearization and it will not lead to substantive negotiations or north -South engagement.

And the US cannot unilaterally lift sanctions. the UNSC must do that and Congress must also rescind legislation to do so. Even if we did go to the UN Security Council to request relief, while we would surely have the support of Russia and China, it is very possible that the UK and France might veto any sanctions relief (thereby saving us from ourselves!)

 

8. North Korea strengthens monitoring of border to prepare for lifting of border blockade

dailynk.com · Jong So Yong · March 19, 2021

The regime is going to have to open the border or what is left of the nK economy will be completely crushed. But it will do so in a way that it hopes can maximize its control over the people and al. activity to include legal trade and illicit activities.

 

9. North Korean WMD pose threat to neighbors, violate UN Security Council resolutions: US official

The Korea Times · March 19, 2021

Excellent statement from Ms Porter (and as reflected in the article headline as well).

There is no clearer problem statement than this:

"North Korea's WMD programs, as reflected in multiple UN Security Council resolutions, are unlawful and constitute a threat to international peace and security," she told a daily press briefing.

Although this is so obvious and well known I fear we forget this simple construct (and it is all WMD and not just the nuclear threat). The regime is a threat and it refuses to comply with international norms and standards.

Of course she is also correct not to publicly air alliance differences.  

 

10. North Korea-US tug of war casts shadow over dialogue

The Korea Times · March 19, 2021

We should not be negatively influenced by nor overreact to north Korean statements.

 

11. Parliamentary leaders of South Korea, US hold virtual meeting

The Korea Times · by Marilyn Strickland  · March 19, 2021

I wonder if they discussed the need to pass the SMA (cost sharing) in the national assembly?

 

12. Hitting Nerve With Kim Jong Un Regime Takes Just a Few Words

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin

Just imagine if we had a coordinated, holistic, and sophisticated information and influence campaign against the north.

We should be able to exploit denuclearization of the north and of the Korean peninsula. We can concede on the denuclearization of the peninsula and because we understand the nature and objectives of the regime and why it demands this phrase we can expose its true strategy for all the world to see.

We could kill two birds with one stone if we revert back to denuclearization of the peninsula - it would be a concession to the South as well as the north. Although I believe denuclearization of the north is the real and proper focus and believe we can make denuclearization of the peninsula actually work to our benefit as it gives us the opportunity to educate the public in South Korea and the US as well. But we need to effectively execute an information and influence campaign.

 

13. Gaps to fill in ‘ironclad’ alliance between Korea, US

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · March 19, 2021

Of course there are. But the foundation remains strong.

 

14. EXPLAINER: NKorea’s anger to US may actually be an overture

boston25news.com · by Kim Tong-Hyun

Of course it may be an overture and an opening. It is just that the regime is shaping the conditions and setting the terms. We must understand the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. And the north's statements and actions are also designed to drive a wedge in the regime. Every time we see the regime trying to do that we need to expose that strategy and strengthen our resolve to make the alliance even stronger. Each time the regime challenges the alliance we can sharpen it - steel sharpens steel.

 

15. Biden's Conundrum: South Korea's Embarrassing Stance On Human Rights

andmagazine.com · by Grant Newsham · March 18, 2021

We need to get this right. Human rights is a national security issue. Kim must deny the human rights of the Korean people in the north in order to survive. He is more afraid of the people than the US. This can and must inform a pressure and influence campaign. 

We need a human rights upfront approach that is coordinated within the alliance. We must convince the former human rights lawyer, President Moon of this.

 

16. A Day Late, But Not a Dollar Short: The New U.S.- Korea Burden-Sharing Agreement

keia.org · by Kyle Ferrier · March 18, 2021

But it still must be approved by the national assembly and we are seeing some opposition among ruling party members.

And we should stop using burden sharing and shift to cost sharing. It is a burden to neither country because it is in the national security interests of both countries to share the costs. That should be a key point in a public affairs campaign to educate the public in both countries why this is important.

 

-----------

 

"Don't think of knocking out another person's brains because he differs in opinion from you. It will be as rational to knock yourself on the head because you differ from yourself ten years ago."

- James Burgh

 

Mental horsepower doesn’t guarantee mental dexterity. No matter how much brainpower you have, if you lack the motivation to change your mind, you’ll miss many occasions to think again. Research reveals that the higher you score on an IQ test, the more likely you are to fall for ste­reotypes, because you’re faster at recognizing patterns. And recent experiments suggest that the smarter you are, the more you might struggle to update your beliefs.

- Adam Grant in Think Again

 

"There are four kinds of people in this world:

those who make things happen;

those who watch things happen;

those who wonder what happened;

those who don’t know that anything happened!

I knew from a very early age that I wanted to be first on that list.” 

- Mary Kay Ash