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03/18/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Thu, 03/18/2021 - 10:07am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Burden Sharing: Benefits and Costs Associated with the U.S. Military Presence in Japan and South Korea

2. Opinion | Rising to the Challenge of China

3. Why Washington Is Fed Up With Beijing

4. U.S. Seeks to Counter China’s Full-Court Press in Asia

5. Final Adoption of the U.S. Universal Periodic Review

6. Beyond the pandemic, Asian American leaders fear U.S. conflict with China will fan racist backlash

7. US must grasp China's different set of values

8. If you think the West's culture wars are bad, try Afghanistan's

9. Domestic divisions leave blanks in US Asia policy

10.  How China Sees the International Order: A Lesson from the Chinese Classics

11. In trip to China’s backyard, Biden team tests its ‘values’ policy

12. To Win Over Asia, Talk Trade

13. Faith In The Military Is Falling – Not Demand For Strong Defense: Reagan Institute

14. Ambiguity Doesn't Work. Taiwan Needs Strategic Clarity

15. FDD | There Is No Going Back: Xi’s Vision at China’s National People’s Congress

16. How Politics Has Poisoned the United Nations

17. Key Official: Defense Information Operations ‘Not Evolving Fast Enough’

18. Unarmed Army Ranger confronts a shotgun-wielding robber during Sunday brunch

19. Spy firm wants to sell real-time locations of YOUR car to the military

20. Bum-Rushing Extremists From the Military Might Not Help

21. Intelligence Agencies Warn Most Lethal Threat to US Is Homegrown

 

1. Burden Sharing: Benefits and Costs Associated with the U.S. Military Presence in Japan and South Korea

gao.gov

This is a very detailed and important report and one that will be of use to researchers and scholars for a long time to come. The 60 page report has a lot of data that really explains the actual costs and cost sharing.

This should help inform a public affairs campaign to explain the benefits and costs of our alliances in Korea and Japan.

As an aside I was one of the 9 non-government personnel interviewed for this report and my opinions on the benefits are reflected in the text. 

The 60 page GAO report can be downloaded in PDF here. 

Note for my Korean and Japanese friends, it is available in Korean and Japanese.

 

2. Opinion | Rising to the Challenge of China

The New York Times · by Farah Stockman · March 18, 2021

Excerpts:

“With nearly every electronic device requiring semiconductors, these tiny computer chips are the oil of the 21st century. Americans cannot afford to be complacent about where they come from or whether there will be enough to go around. It is reassuring to know that TSMC, the Taiwanese company that is the world’s largest independent semiconductor foundry, has begun constructing a new plant in Arizona and that the National Defense Authorization Act enacted in January provides incentives to the U.S. semiconductor industry. But more must be done.

That is not to say that Americans ought to try to stop China from obtaining the semiconductors that it needs to thrive, or “decouple” the U.S. economy from China’s, as Mr. Trump once dangerously suggested. That would be exceedingly costly and would make it more likely that the two countries will end up in a confrontation.

But Americans have recognized the need to be far more thoughtful and strategic about planning for their own economic future. That’s a good thing. Maintaining a military and technological edge requires investments in research, education and infrastructure that many Americans would otherwise be unwilling to make.

Of all the threats that China poses, the greatest might just be its example to the rest of the world of a successful alternative to American democracy, which has been marred by economic inequality, racial unrest and insurrection. To effectively counter China, Americans must get their own house in order and remind the world — and themselves — that democracy can still deliver for ordinary people.”

 

3. Why Washington Is Fed Up With Beijing

Foreign Policy · by Michael Hirsh · March 17, 2021

Excerpts:

“Meanwhile, Xi has used China’s economic heft to make its own rules and exercise influence as it pleases. It has deployed the massive Belt and Road Initiative to foster “debt-trap diplomacy” in Asia and Africa, while expanding its own commercial (and perhaps military) reach. It also exploited Trump’s unilateral approach and hasty withdrawal from the U.S.-brokered Trans-Pacific Partnership to orchestrate a 15-nation regional trade bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, as an alternative to U.S. trade pressure. All the while, even as Republicans and Democrats bicker over industrial policy, infrastructure investment, and U.S. foreign-policy goals, Beijing is plowing ahead with its state-driven Made in China 2025 initiative to achieve dominance in the most important economic sectors of the future.

But now, in direct contrast to all the earnest U.S. attempts at bringing China in over the decades, it is striking to see how Biden is seeking to cut China out. With Biden’s “Buy American” plan, the administration is even considering a degree of economic decoupling, as China hawks have long advocated: “reshoring” U.S. businesses away from China. European allies remain somewhat on the fence, having concluded an investment pact with China late last year despite Sullivan’s efforts to delay it ahead of Biden’s inauguration. But several allies seem on board with Biden’s approach. As Britain said in its newly released global strategy this week, it plans to “work very closely on the Indo-Pacific with the Biden Administration.”

Yet without real strategic dialogue or diplomatic framework in the offing, many experts fear that the incremental sources of conflict will grow and some kind of cold war may become inevitable, even if the Biden administration wants to avoid it.

In the end, the new president’s team may be walking a dangerous and fine line, one they haven’t quite figured out how to maneuver yet. “I think their strategic approach to China policy is still a work in progress,” Tellis said. “Much will depend on the outcome of Anchorage.”

 

4. U.S. Seeks to Counter China’s Full-Court Press in Asia

Foreign Policy · by Jack Detsch · March 17, 2021

While I do not think China wants war (a direct kinetic one) with us (nor do we want war with China), we need to be damn sure we did not stumble into one. China wants to be successful at political warfare. But we need to ensure we have the strongest possible military in order to deter war, especially when someone stumbles.

Excerpts:

“But the stakes might not be war, experts said. Instead, China may be using their growing military might to raise the costs for Pentagon planners.

“I don’t think the Chinese want a war. I think they want to be able to put up a threat of sufficient scale that we decide don’t want to fight them, that we’re put in a situation where we decide the cost is not going to be worth it,” said Shugart. “If we lose the crew of one carrier, we’ll lose about as many people in one day as we lost in Iraq over a decade or so.”

 

5. Final Adoption of the U.S. Universal Periodic Review

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken · March 17, 2021

Human rights is a national security issue. And we need to be able to compete through the international organizations space, to include the human rights council at the UN.

 

6. Beyond the pandemic, Asian American leaders fear U.S. conflict with China will fan racist backlash

The Washington Post · by David Nakamura · March 18, 2021

Is a perfect storm being created for racism?

Excerpt:

“It sends a false message that people who look like me would be more disloyal,” Lieu told Blinken, who said he shared the concerns about inequities in the system. “As you manage the relationship with China, I want to remain vigilant that fear of a foreign country does not negatively impact the Asian American community.”

 

7. US must grasp China's different set of values

asia.nikkei.com · by Ian Bremmer · March 17, 2021

Conclusion:

“Which approach will Biden choose? Knowing the consensus-building Biden, it will likely be some combination of all three as Biden tries to empower his administration officials while also making progress on as many objectives as possible over the next few years.

That makes sense over the short-term, but without a comprehensive strategy, the U.S. will still be left facing a China with a fundamentally different set of values and standards, and with increasing means to export its own worldview abroad. A strategic review of U.S.-China relations is the absolute right-step for policymakers in Washington; the real concern is what Washington does with it after it is completed.”

 

8. If you think the West's culture wars are bad, try Afghanistan's

thenationalnews.com · by Sulaiman Hakemy · March 16, 2021

Very interesting:

“Incidentally, Mr Danish and I are technically from the same ethnic group. Like him, my father is a Hazara Afghan, though because my paternal grandmother is Tajik and my mother’s family is from the Indian subcontinent, I look completely different to any Afghan stereotype of a Hazara. So incomprehensible and embarrassing were my non-stereotypical facial features that when I was last in Kabul, I visited a Hazara family friend and he asked me to pretend I was not Hazara if other visitors called at the house.

Curiously, the NSIA’s list of 71 ethnicities also includes Uyghurs, most of whom arrived in Afghanistan from China only recently. They are not in the constitution, and yet now they are part of the nation and get ID cards like everyone else, turning upside down the notion that any one list of ethnicities defined Afghanistan to begin with.

That old history, in which Afghanistan was a struggle between Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras “and others”, will also have to die if the nation is to stay alive. And it will die on its own, as the country’s evolving demographic complexity shows, of natural causes. And the national culture, whatever it really is, will change with it. Rather than talking about how to keep these things alive, conversations for Afghanistan's survival should be about the best way to let go of them.”

 

9. Domestic divisions leave blanks in US Asia policy

eastasiaforum.org · by Gorana Grgic · March 17, 2021

Yes we have to get our domestic house in order. But then again has our domestic house ever been in order?

Excerpts:

“Rather than a radical departure from the Trump era, there are still elements from the previous administration that could qualify as ‘something borrowed’. While the new administration is talking up cooperation on transnational issues such as climate change, global health and arms control, it is bound to maintain the inherited competitive disposition towards China. It has made it abundantly clear that economic statecraft will remain a vital aspect of its strategy.

Yet, there is uncertainty around the policy specifics, much of which will hinge on contingency planning and bureaucratic politics. While we can only speculate as to what Chinese foreign policy will look like over the next four years, there is less room for guesswork when it comes to the key divides in Biden’s team.”

 

10. How China Sees the International Order: A Lesson from the Chinese Classics

warontherocks.com · by David K. Schneider · March 18, 2021

The classics (eastern and western) offer some much insight if only we would read and study them.

 

11. In trip to China’s backyard, Biden team tests its ‘values’ policy

The Christian Science Monitor · by Howrd LaFranchi · March 17, 2021

Excerpts:

“The question now for some regional analysts is whether the U.S. sticks to a comprehensive, values-driven diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific, or if a sense of the growing urgency to confront China prompts a shift to more hard-power initiatives like stepped-up joint military exercises and inter-military cooperation.

“The rhetoric from the Quad summit was reassuring and the emphasis on promoting the public good, with the vaccine initiative and climate change and infrastructure investment, was a very positive development,” says Sarang Shidore, a senior fellow at the Council on Strategic Risks in Washington.

“But China is the deeper reason the Quad was even born,” he adds, “and what I find worrying is that despite the recent attention to the values of the group, which include peace and inclusion, the military aspect has not really been pulled back.

”Pointing to Secretary Austin’s stop in New Delhi, Mr. Shidore says he sees the risk of a regional policy based on values and mutual interests shifting increasingly to an emphasis on China’s “compellence and containment,” something he says America’s regional partners don’t want.”

And he says it is the U.S., as the Indo-Pacific regional powers’ “most powerful and consequential” partner, that will determine which course the region follows.

 

12. In Asia (as in the US) it is the old "its the economy, stupid."

Bloomberg · by Editorial Board · March 18, 2021

Excerpts:

“In any case, Biden should be guided by what’s good for the country and its workers, not by what seems most politically convenient. Standing aside from TPP (as it then was) rivals Brexit as an unforced act of economic self-harm. Biden’s team should be quietly conferring with key countries such as Japan to sketch out the stricter labor and environmental provisions that would be needed for the U.S. to rejoin. At the same time, the White House should accelerate measures to support the workers most affected by foreign trade.

International economic cooperation is vital to sustain the global economic recovery, raise productivity and living standards, and advance America’s security interests in Asia. Biden says the U.S. is once again ready to lead. That’s good. The president needs to lead on trade, too.”

 

13. Faith In The Military Is Falling – Not Demand For Strong Defense: Reagan Institute

breakingdefense.com · by Roger Zakheim and Rachel Hoff · March 17, 2021

Troubling.

 

14. Ambiguity Doesn't Work. Taiwan Needs Strategic Clarity

realcleardefense.com · by Michele Lowe and Alice Cho

From our former intern at FDD, Alice Cho.

Conclusion:

“Ambiguity signals to Beijing that there are questions over America’s commitment to the region, exasperated by four years of an America first mantra that shrunk U.S. leadership in the world. Clarity provides the opposite. It signals to Beijing that the United States is committed to its allies and its regional strategy for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific." If joined by partners and allies, clarity will be an important step in rolling back strategic gains made by China.

Strategic clarity should not be a declaration of independence for Taiwan, tacit support of provocative Taiwanese actions, or an escalation. It is admitting what most already believe to be true, backed by historical evidence during previous strait crises, that the United States is prepared to commit forces should the PLA try to annex Taiwan. The CCP is gaining momentum in creating its vision of a Sino-centric order. It has redefined the status quo by exploiting weaknesses in the liberal system: maritime militia enforcing Chinese nationalism in other states’ territory; unrelenting military shows of force in the Taiwan strait; constructing and arming artificial islands in the South China Sea. The PRC no longer hides its intentions for regional domination or its desire to annex Taiwan. If the United States does not take strong policy stances on Chinese overreaches like Taiwan, then the CCP will achieve its Sino-centric world vision. The American people can no longer delay on firm, concise action. Policymakers should seize the next evolution of U.S. policies, one that embraces strategic clarity, builds consensus for free and open seas, and solidifies America’s commitment to defend democracy.”

 

15. FDD | There Is No Going Back: Xi’s Vision at China’s National People’s Congress

fdd.org · by Craig Singleton · March 17, 2021

Conclusion: “Regardless of potential U.S. military re-alignments in the Pacific, what is unlikely to change, at least in the short term, is the sharp rhetoric coming from senior U.S. officials about the nature of America’s great power rivalry with Beijing. While an upcoming meeting in Alaska between U.S. and Chinese officials may help identify a small number of areas where the two governments can collaborate, namely on climate change and Burma, the meeting itself is unlikely to dramatically alter the current bilateral dynamic or lead to any major shifts in U.S. policy. In the meantime, all eyes will turn to Beijing’s upcoming celebration of the CCP’s anniversary and Xi’s all-but-certain elevation into the annals of Chinese history.”

 

16. How Politics Has Poisoned the United Nations

The National Interest · by David May · March 17, 2021

Is there an antidote for the poison? Can we "fix" the UN human rights council?

Excerpts:

“To reform the UPR process, the council should first start with a clear-eyed approach to membership. With the Biden administration’s intention to run for election to the UNHRC next year, here are two ways Biden should advocate for reforming the Council:

First, the General Assembly should determine UNHRC membership by voting through open ballots, not secret ones as is currently done. Forcing countries to publicize their votes could dissuade them from supporting abusers and would introduce some accountability in the UN human rights infrastructure.

Second, there should be basic standards for council membership. Freedom House’s Annual Global Freedom Scores provides an objective, evidence-based approach to rating countries based on their access to political rights and civil liberties and should be drawn from.

After instituting membership standards, the council should empower the UPR Working Groups to impose a vetting process for member state recommendations. This includes developing firm criteria to determine whether the recommendations are valid or should be thrown out due to a country’s political interests.

Reforming the council won’t be easy; previous administrations have tried and failed. But if the United States rejoins an unreformed Council, it will lend legitimacy to an institution that embraces human rights violators rather than challenging their abuses.”

 

17. Key Official: Defense Information Operations ‘Not Evolving Fast Enough’

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Until we overcome our risk averseness to influence and fix the problem with this anecdote we will never sufficiently progress. In the US it is easier to get permission to put a hellfire missile on the forehead of a terrorist than it is to get permission to put an idea between his ears (or anyone's ears for that matter).

 

18. Unarmed Army Ranger confronts a shotgun-wielding robber during Sunday brunch

armytimes.com · by Todd South · March 17, 2021

I love our Rangers. Quite a story. This is what they do. I will bet WO1 Ruth will soon be flying for 160th SOAR and coming to the rescue of operators somewhere on a hot LZ.

 

19. Spy firm wants to sell real-time locations of YOUR car to the military

Daily Mail · by Harriet Alexander · March 17, 2021

The new normal. A brave new world. Big brother can now watch.

But note they do not have the capability to monitor north Korea and Cuba.

Spy firm wants to sell real-time locations of YOUR car to the military

  • A South Carolina-based surveillance firm is promoting its car monitoring ability
  • The Ulysses Group says it has real-time access to 15 billion cars worldwide
  • They monitor cars through GPS and sensors on equipment such as airbags
  • The data may be from car makers and through manufacturers of individual parts
  • The Ulysses Group has strong ties to the U.S. military and promotes its capability
  • The firm told Vice News in a statement it's not working for government 

 

20. Bum-Rushing Extremists From the Military Might Not Help

defenseone.com · by Todd C. Helmus, Ryan Andrew Brown, and Rajeev Ramchand

Excerpts:

“Finally, to help prevent military personnel and future veterans from joining extremist ranks, this former neo-Nazi recommends racial sensitivity training to develop cross-cultural understanding — especially for those who have never met people of other races or religions.

“Instead of taking a ‘don’t do this’ or ‘don’t do that’ approach,” he says, let troops “hear those human stories from people who can say, ‘Racism did this to me.’ That way people can feel empathy…Once you get past the dehumanization experience it is really difficult to harm that other person.”

Of course, Schoep’s views represent just one “former” perspective, albeit one with deep experience in the trenches of extremist groups. As the U.S. moves forward with research and action, voices like his can provide an inside perspective on how right-wing extremist organizations recruit within and prey on the military and veteran communities.”

 

21. Intelligence Agencies Warn Most Lethal Threat to US Is Homegrown

voanews.com · by Associated Press

 

------------------

 

“Develop enough courage so that you can stand up for yourself and then stand up for somebody else.”

- Maya Angelo 

 

“Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.”

- C.S. Lewis

 

“Righting wrongs for which we haven’t been caught is the litmus test of who we are; it shows the core of our honor.”

- Anonymous

03/18/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Thu, 03/18/2021 - 9:46am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Full text of joint statement of 2021 S. Korea-U.S. Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting

2.  Strengthening the Ironclad U.S.-ROK Alliance - United States Department of State

3.  Human rights at 'forefront' of U.S. diplomacy: State Dept.

4. Washington, Seoul to Make N.Korean Nukes a Priority

5. Blinken: North Korea Continues to Commit ‘Systemic and Widespread’ Abuses

6. The shaky linchpin (the ROK in the ROK/US Alliance)

7. Moon meets top U.S. officials, vows close security cooperation

8. Biden’s way of dealing with Kim

9. U.S. calls on China to play ‘critical’ role in nuke talks

10. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Secretary of State Antony Blinken Conduct Press Conference With Their Counterparts After a U.S.-ROK Foreign and Defense Ministerial (“2+2”), Hosted by the ROK’s Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and Minister of Defense Suh Wook

11. North Korea Says They’re Ghosting Endless Calls and Emails From Team Biden

12. North Korea Tries Familiar Gambit as US Delegation Arrives in Region

13. Kim Jong Un’s Kid Sister Warns Biden Not to Make ‘a Stink’ With South Korean Exercise Drills

14. North Korea says U.S. attempt to initiate contact is 'cheap trick' - KCNA

15. North Korea likens pop music to 'slavery' in ominous 'entertainment crackdown'

16. S. Korea, U.S. set to wrap up springtime combined exercise amid COVID-19, N.K. protest

17. Military closely following activities at N.K. missile facilities: defense ministry

18. U.S. deploys F-21 Raptors in Japan

 

1. Full text of joint statement of 2021 S. Korea-U.S. Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 18, 2021

Good work by the ROK and US diplomats and action officers who put this together. I think it illustrates the initial contours of the Biden Korea policy (which of course Kim Jong-un is trying to sabotage or at least subvert this week).

It hits all the major points (and is good to see the statement on the importance of trilateral cooperation with Japan). A values based alliance, Global interests and responsibilities - rules based order. SMA. A nod to the Quad without mentioning the Quad. OPCON transition. Combined defense posture. If I were still a military planner and supporting strategy development I could make very good use of this statement. Our information operations professionals should be able to use this to help inform an information and influence activities campaign.

We have been having a lot of discussion lately on Twitter about the phrase denuclearization of the Korean peninsula versus denuclearization of north Korea. I have long argued that denuclearization of the peninsula is the Kim family regime code for ending the ROK/US alliance and driving troops off the peninsula and ending extended deterrence over the ROK and Japan. I stand by that assessment. Denuclearization of the Peninsula goes back to the 1992 north-South Agreement on Denuclearization. It is also used in the UNSCR 1718 (which I mistakenly tweeted it wasn't). It was used in the Panmunjom and Singapore joint statements with the north. However, the ROK prefers denuclearization of the peninsula to emphasize the tie to the 1992 denuclearization agreement which it lived up to (and the US did too by unilaterally withdrawing nuclear weapons in 1991) while the north did not and has not. That is a logical and sound argument, if in fact we all recognize what the regime is trying to do with the statement (which also supports the other north Korean demand - "an end to the US hostile policy toward the north). It is about driving a wedge in and ultimately breaking the alliance to get US troops off the peninsula. 

Now, in regards to the use of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula used in UNSCR 1718: Yes the phrase is there but the focus, the demands for compliance, and the sanctions are all on north Korea. I am sure the drafters of the resolution used similar rationales as the South Koreans and they were connecting it to the 1992 denuclearization agreement. But the fact is all nuclear (and all weapons of mass destruction - chemical, biological, and nuclear) sanctions are addressing north Korean actions and not South Korean actions. Which is why the key excerpt below is so important. It simply states the alliance policy is to compel the north to comply with UN resolutions. It is not the US demanding or the South Korea demanding, but the international community demanding that north Korea denuclearize, eliminate WMD and missile programs, end global illicit activities, proliferation, cyber attacks and human rights abuses and crimes against humanity. Therefore rather than using "denuclearize north Korea" or "denuclearize the Korean peninsula," we should be very explicit and say the north must be compelled to comply with all relevant UN resolutions.

This argument about the two phrases is useful; however, because it is helping to expose north Korea's strategy. Whenever denuclearization of the peninsula is used by the north, the counter must be that the north did not comply with the 1992 agreement (or nearly any other agreement) and that it must comply with UN resolutions. And ROK and US policy makers, diplomats, and military officials must continually acknowledge that the ROK and US have complied, the South is "denuclearized" and that the north's strategy is not about serious negotiation about the denuclearization of the north but instead it is deliberately executing its political warfare strategy with the objective of dominating e Korean peninsula. We must continually expose the regime's strategy for all the world to see. Our debate over how to phrase denuclearization can help us to that. “Thus, what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy's strategy.” - Sun Tzu. This debate helps us to attack Kim's strategy.

Key excerpt:

“The Ministers and Secretaries emphasized that North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile issues are a priority for the Alliance, and reaffirmed a shared commitment to address and resolve these issues. They affirmed the importance of full implementation of relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions by the international community, including North Korea. The ROK and the United States are closely coordinating on all issues related to the Korean Peninsula. Both sides shared the view that these issues should be addressed through a fully-coordinated strategy toward North Korea between the ROK and the United States. To this end, they committed to maintain high-level consultations on the United States' ongoing North Korea policy review.”

This statement is also posted in Korean and English the MOFA web site but is not yet posted on State's web site.

 

2. Strengthening the Ironclad U.S.-ROK Alliance - United States Department of State

state.gov 

Good alliance overview. Good work by the professionals in State EAP. This should be useful for everyone's public diplomacy efforts. Note two sections that speak directly to the American people (and all sections indirectly do as well).

 

3. Human rights at 'forefront' of U.S. diplomacy: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 18, 2021

The ROK/US alliance must take a human rights upfront approach.  We should remember that the regime could not continue to develop its nuclear and missile capabilities without denying the human rights of the Korean people in the north.

 

4. Washington, Seoul to Make N.Korean Nukes a Priority

english.chosun.com · March 18, 2021

Not denuclearization of the entire peninsula.

Not denuclearization of north Korea.

It must be to compel north Korea to comply with all UN resolutions pertaining to nuclear, missile and all WMD development and use, human rights abuses, global illicit activities, cyber attacks, and proliferation. This should be the essence of the alliance strategy.

 

5. Blinken: North Korea Continues to Commit ‘Systemic and Widespread’ Abuses

The National Interest · by Ethen Kim Lieser · March 17, 2021

This is good to see the SECSTATE calling out north Korea for human rights. We need the South and the US to speak with one voice on this. The UN has determined that the Kim family regime is committing crimes against humanity.

 

6. The shaky linchpin (the ROK in the ROK/US Alliance)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Yun Byung-se

A short, but very powerful critique of the ROK.

A stark warning to the ROK here:  

“If Korea abandons its linchpin role in the Indo-Pacific fearing expected burdens, it will surely be substituted by Japan — the cornerstone — and India — a new linchpin. Korea should not turn into a “dispensable nation.” Now is the opportunity for Korea to find a way out of its diplomatic impasse.”

 

7. Moon meets top U.S. officials, vows close security cooperation

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · March 18, 2021

Oh, to have been a fly on the wall for this meeting....Did they address our mutual strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime?

 

8. Biden’s way of dealing with Kim

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Cha Se-hyeon

The author recommends H.R. McMaster's policy prescriptions:

“He claimed the policy failed because the U.S. had futile hopes that North Korea’s opening — sometimes called “Sunshine Policy” — would change the essence of the regime or the belief that Kim family’s rule was not sustainable and would collapse before the North developed and deployed nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. He also argued that the United States should exert maximum pressure until Kim decides that his regime was safer without the nuclear program than with it. He proposed three principles: not offering initial agreement or compensation to bring Pyongyang to the talk table; persuading China to enforce UN sanctions as it makes up 95 percent of North Korea’s trade; and showing the willingness and capacity to use military power against North Korea if necessary. 

I hope the democratic leaders today will reference McMaster’s advice.”

 

9. U.S. calls on China to play ‘critical’ role in nuke talks

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

China maintains a critical role in maintaining the status quo on the peninsula and ensuring the Kim family regime does not collapse.

While we must try to work with China we cannot depend on China to solve ROK and US security issues.

And we should not forget: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions. We have to apply this in the Korean context as well.

 

10. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Secretary of State Antony Blinken Conduct Press Conference With Their Counterparts After a U.S.-ROK Foreign and Defense Ministerial (“2+2”), Hosted by the ROK’s Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and Minister of Defense Suh Wook

defense.gov

Some of the many key points. This is a pretty comprehensive press conference with four main speakers (the 2+2), There is a lot to work with here. If I were still a military planner I would be gathering all these remarks and statements and using them to frame strategic guidance. I think the Biden Korea policy review is very subtle (and sometimes not so subtly) laid out in all the comments and statesmen from both 2+2s in Korea and Japan):

“And also, both countries have confirmed our consensus on three major areas. First of all, the North Korea nuclear issue is the most immediate issue and it is necessary to have the close coordination between our two countries.

Secondly, in order to resolve the North Korea nuclear issue in a peaceful manner, the best diplomatic efforts will be made based on the solid security base.”

Lastly, in the process of review process of the North Korea by the U.S., as well as the implementation period, fully coordinated strategy will be the base for our coordination. Both countries will continue to have the cooperation for the sake of the progress of the Korean peace process. Also, for the regional peace, security, and prosperity, both countries have decided to continue our cooperation, reciprocal, and the futuristic manner among the three lateral countries, with Japan. Also with the New Southern Policy and its cooperation, we decided to have the common prosperity and stability, especially in the Indo-Pacific area. Regarding climate change and COVID-19, we decided to have the joint responses based on our alliance. We also decided to have that cooperation of the 2+2 meeting. It will be very meaningful.

...

On the visit of the secretaries from the U.S., there was no direct discussion about Korea joining Quad. However, we discussed how we can harmonize and coordinate the New Southern Policy of South Korea and the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the U.S. As I have stated several times, the Korean Government's position is that if it conforms with the national interest of Korea and transparency and inclusiveness is ensured, we can join any regional cooperative body.”

SECDEF gets it exactly right here (though we need a good information campaign to properly explain the OPCON transition process and its benefits for both countries):

“And today, we discussed the way forward on a host of critical strategic and operational issues. And at the top of my agenda was ensuring a shared understanding of the importance of maintaining military readiness. Our force remains ready to fight tonight and we continue to make progress toward the eventual transition of wartime operational control to an ROK-commanded future combined forces command.

While meeting all the conditions for this transition will take more time, I am confident that this process will strengthen our alliance. And so we have a lot to look forward to as, together, we address global security -- the global security challenges and engage in long-term strategic competition, mainly with China, which, as some of you know, is our department's pacing challenge in the years ahead.”

 

11. North Korea Says They’re Ghosting Endless Calls and Emails From Team Biden

The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk · March 18, 2021

Comments from my colleague, Mathew Ha (among others), in the article.

 

12. North Korea Tries Familiar Gambit as US Delegation Arrives in Region

rfa.org · by Soyoung Kim, Jeongeun ji, Albert Hong

My comments in the article.

 

13. Kim Jong Un’s Kid Sister Warns Biden Not to Make ‘a Stink’ With South Korean Exercise Drills

The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk · March 16, 2021

My comments in the article.

 

14. North Korea says U.S. attempt to initiate contact is 'cheap trick' - KCNA

Reuters · by Josh Smith · March 18, 2021

Cheap Trick? isn't that a rock and roll band? Maybe Choe Son-hui is listening to western music.

I wonder if she had these Cheap Trick songs on her mind when she made this statement?

"Gonna Raise Hell"

"Dream Police"

"Surrender"

"I Want You to Want me"

Listen To them here. Maybe this will give us some understanding of the thinking of the Kim Family regime: 

 

15. North Korea likens pop music to 'slavery' in ominous 'entertainment crackdown'

Mirror · by Dave Burke · March 17, 2021

Choe Son-hui is going to get in trouble if she is listening to Cheap Trick in addition to South Korean pop music.

Didn't rock and roll help bring down the Soviet Union? (tongue in cheek here)

 

16.  S. Korea, U.S. set to wrap up springtime combined exercise amid COVID-19, N.K. protest

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 18, 2021

Ah yes. Such a threat to the north! Any reporting on the end of the north Korean Winter training Cycle that must be about completed now?

 

17.  Military closely following activities at N.K. missile facilities: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · March 18, 2021

As they should be and as our combined intelligence and military capabilities should be.

We should ask what is the north showing us and what does it want us to see and what does it not want us to see?

 

18.  U.S. deploys F-21 Raptors in Japan

donga.com

Bad headline but good news for military assets in the region.

 

---------------------

 

“Develop enough courage so that you can stand up for yourself and then stand up for somebody else.”

- Maya Angelo 

 

“Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.”

- C.S. Lewis

 

“Righting wrongs for which we haven’t been caught is the litmus test of who we are; it shows the core of our honor.”

- Anonymous

03/17/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Wed, 03/17/2021 - 10:40am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Russia, Iran sought to influence 2020 election, but no foreign government tried to change votes, U.S. says

2.  Blinken blasts 'aggressive' China; Austin reaffirms U.S. deterrence on Korean peninsula

3.  FDD | Joe Biden Shouldn’t Return to the Iran Deal

4. Opinion | What’s at stake in the first big meeting of top Biden administration and Chinese officials by John R. Bolton

5. Upgraded Iron Dome Defeats Drones & Rockets In Test

6. Top US Commander Warns 'Front Line' With China Now South of Border

7. More Americans than ever view China as greatest US enemy: Gallup

8. 'Three Warfares': U.S. pummeled by covert disinformation war waged by Russia, China

9. US should tell China: 'Legal warfare' against Taiwan will lead to real war

10. Special Operations Has Been the Easy Button For Far Too Long | SOFREP

11. U.S. Deploys Coast Guard Far From Home to Counter China

12. China's Useful Elitists: Westerners Exploited for Beijing's Domestic Image

13. A confident China seeks to insulate itself from the world

14. The Real Guardrails of Democracy Are Its Citizens

15. What Countries Will Fight Over When Green Energy Dominates

16. Guard officials say troops’ march on Republican congresswoman’s office wasn’t a political statement

17. Spc. Vanessa Guillen case could be Army CID’s ‘Tailhook scandal’

18. US special operations forces train Mozambique troops to counter ISIS threat

19. Train Small Units For Big Wars: Gen. McConville

20.  Navy won't remove ‘anti-American’ books from reading list despite House Republicans’ concerns

21. With Chevy halting production of the Camaro, junior enlisted must find purpose elsewhere

22. Operation Kingpin: 27 Minutes at Son Tay

 

1. Russia, Iran sought to influence 2020 election, but no foreign government tried to change votes, U.S. says

The Washington Post · by Ellen Nakashima  · March 16, 2021

You can read the entire ODNI 15 page report here

Why would China have to conduct election influence operations when Russia and Iran were already doing. And of course China probably looked at the election turbulence and the divisions within the US and decided to adopt the Napoleon position: never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. 

 

2. Blinken blasts 'aggressive' China; Austin reaffirms U.S. deterrence on Korean peninsula

Reuters · by Humeyra Pamuk and Hyonhee Shin · March 17, 2021

I am optimistic that we are seeing the best synergy between a SECSTATE and SECDEF than possibly we have ever seen.  There appears to be a new Satte-DOD relationship at least at the highest levels. There have been great relationships in the past but they have been more private and behind the scenes. This is a public demonstration of the importance of the 3D's - diplomacy, development, and defense. Yes this is the first major Biden cabinet level trip but I am optimistic that it is indicative of how State and DOD are going to work together in a very public and positive manner.

 

3. FDD | Joe Biden Shouldn’t Return to the Iran Deal

fdd.org · by Reuel Marc Gerecht · March 16, 2021

Conclusion:

“President Trump never really tried to effect a containment policy against the Islamic Republic, where Washington doggedly tries to roll back the clerical regime’s influence throughout the Middle East, patiently aggravating the theocracy’s internal weaknesses. And he unwisely premised his sanctions regime on obtaining a new, more comprehensive, A-bomb-foreclosing agreement — a fantasy while Iran remains the Islamic Republic. But containment would draw redlines. Billions of dollars wouldn’t be transferred for a short, weak, and narrow nuclear deal. Mass slaughter and terrorism wouldn’t be rewarded.

And the president of the United States could reply to the supreme leader: “I don’t need to return to the JCPOA, either.” In the Middle East’s endless hard-power contests, that would be a momentous next step.”

 

4. Opinion | What’s at stake in the first big meeting of top Biden administration and Chinese officials by John R. Bolton

The Washington Post · by  John R. Bolton · March 15, 2021

Conclusion:  “This first high-level Washington-Beijing encounter will not resolve any major issues, and no one expects it to. If Blinken and Sullivan emphasize that Biden is developing a coherent strategy to resolutely oppose China’s objectionable behavior, that alone would be a vital difference from the past 12 years. If not, however, the China question will become an increasingly important focus of America’s domestic political debate, and one where Biden is unlikely to fare well.”

 

5. Upgraded Iron Dome Defeats Drones & Rockets In Test

breakingdefense.com · by Arie Egozi

This could be very helpful and hopefully a game changer.

 

6. Top US Commander Warns 'Front Line' With China Now South of Border

voanews.com · by Jamie Dettmer · March 16, 2021

Excerpts:

“U.S. military officials likewise expressed concern about the growing relationship between Chinese operations in Central and South America and transnational crime, described by SOUTHCOM's Faller as the second biggest threat to the U.S. in the Americas."

They market in drugs, and people and guns and illegal mining," Faller said of the various crime organizations that have secured a foothold across the region. "And one of the prime sources that underwrites their efforts is Chinese money laundering."

To counter China, Faller urged lawmakers to help ensure a continued U.S. presence and partnership."It's important that we remain engaged in this hemisphere," he said. "It's our neighborhood, That proximity matters."

"What I hear from my partners is … 'We want to partner with you, but when you're drowning, you need a life ring — you're going to take the life ring from whoever throws it," Faller said.

 

7. More Americans than ever view China as greatest US enemy: Gallup

The Hill · by Dominick Mastrangelo · March 16, 2021

 

8. 'Three Warfares': U.S. pummeled by covert disinformation war waged by Russia, China

washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz

This "revelation" about the 1st Special Forces Command is not new (except to those just not paying attention). I am glad to see the focus on CHina's three warfares (and unrestricted warfare).

“During the hearing, it was revealed that the 1st Special Operations Group at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, recently created an information warfare center and has plans to create “influence artillery rounds” for its operations.

“I think it’s indicative of what we’re trying to do across the force, which is really elevate this issue,” said Christopher Maier, acting assistant defense secretary for special operations and low-intensity conflict.

“I wouldn’t want to articulate or even speculate on what they mean by an ‘information artillery round,’ but I think it speaks to the idea that information is a part of our war-fighting concept,” he said.

Special Operations Command is the main military unit in charge of “military information support operations,” or MISO.

The Pentagon’s Defense Science Board concluded in a recent study that military activities in “gray zone” warfare are disjointed and unsuccessful. The military needs to build up its soft-power capabilities in areas such as cybersecurity, intelligence and influence operations.

The U.S. military “needs to be more aggressive in the Gray Zone and treat every action as a campaign to deter competitors from behavior counter to U.S. objectives,” the board concluded.

Mr. Sullivan said all nations wage information warfare to a certain degree, but none is engaged in the style of warfare employed by Moscow using both information and disinformation.

Access the 1st Special Forces Command's vision statement here

 INFORMATION WARFARE CENTER (IWC) The IWC is a CONUS-based, operationally-focused standing task force designed to support GCCs, TSOCs, and JIIM partners to identify, expose, exploit, and disrupt adversary influence campaigns. The IWC integrates cross functional capabilities from Psychological Operations, Intelligence, Cyber, Information Operations, and other Information-Related Capabilities to mass effects against global competitors in the Information Environment. 

I would argue this is a model that should be considered at the national level

9. US should tell China: 'Legal warfare' against Taiwan will lead to real war

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · March 16, 2021

Excerpts:

“Legal warfare — the ASL and the proposed national unification law — is meant to place the legal imprimatur on the project. One authorizes the use of force; the other mandates it. They counter Washington’s legal position that the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) obligates the U.S. to help Taiwan defend itself.

China’s laws also are intended to preempt the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act (TIPA), which would formally authorize the president to take military action to defend Taiwan. The bill died in the last Congress without active Trump administration support and, reintroduced, it now languishes in Congress under Biden.

After playing active diplomatic defense in Anchorage against the Wang/Yang tag team, Blinken and Sullivan need to urge the president to go on offense with America’s own legal warfare before his administration finds itself on kinetic defense in the Indo-Pacific.”

 

10. Special Operations Has Been the Easy Button For Far Too Long | SOFREP

sofrep.com · John Black · March 11, 2021

Ugh... Take this with a grain of salt. There are some truths but also some misunderstandings. I might use this in my class in "Unconventional Warfare and Special Operations for Policy Makers and Strategists" and have students critique this.

 

11. U.S. Deploys Coast Guard Far From Home to Counter China

WSJ · by Lucy Craymer and Ben Kesling

The fifth (and unsung) service.

 

12. China's Useful Elitists: Westerners Exploited for Beijing's Domestic Image

realclearinvestigations.com · by Richard Bernstein

I will just leave this one here for food for thought.

 

13. A confident China seeks to insulate itself from the world

The Economist · March 13, 2021

Really? Is insulate the right word for self-sufficiency?

Conclusion: “State media hail five-year plans as evidence that China has far-sighted leaders, who bravely chart new paths for the future. But the documents really summarise where the country is already heading. The pursuit of self-sufficiency is well under way, however costly it may prove.”

 

14. The Real Guardrails of Democracy Are Its Citizens

Foreign Affairs · by Jonathan Schlefer · March 15, 2021

Damn elites.

Conclusion:  “Strengthening democracy and countering destructive elite power struggles requires letting the people shape policy proposals, not just choose between prepackaged partisan offerings. When politicians in predominately Catholic Ireland failed to resolve the toxic issue of abortion, they resorted to convoking an assembly of 99 randomly selected citizens to discuss the issue and propose a solution. One who participated told The Guardian, “The Citizens’ Assembly took the debate out of this realm of fearful self-interested calculation and into a forum where evidence and experience could take centre stage.” The assembly recommended revoking the constitutional prohibition on abortion and proposed a law to replace it. In a referendum, voters approved the change by 66.6 percent. Such assemblies are now a mainstay of Irish political life; and the name of the organization that started it all? We the Citizens.”

 

15. What Countries Will Fight Over When Green Energy Dominates

Bloomberg · by Marc Champion · March 16, 2021

Conclusion: As renewables expand, jobs and revenues in the U.S. and other hybrid nations will become increasingly dependent on decisions that other countries make about whether to go on importing their fossil fuels, according to Rand’s Preston. That’s unlikely to fast-track a more peaceful renewable future. The trick, he says, will be to “enable safe landings for all the countries that have this kind of dependency on existing fossil fuels, but without shutting down the transition altogether.”

 

16. Guard officials say troops’ march on Republican congresswoman’s office wasn’t a political statement

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · March 16, 2021

Civil-military relations. Lets get it right.

 

17. Spc. Vanessa Guillen case could be Army CID’s ‘Tailhook scandal’

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · March 16, 2021

We have to do better.

 

18.  US special operations forces train Mozambique troops to counter ISIS threat

Stars and Stripes· by John Vandiver · by March 16, 2021

 

19. Train Small Units For Big Wars: Gen. McConville

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

I recall preparing for our battalion ARTEPS in Korea. Our battalion commander (then LTC Micthell Zais) was not pleased with our preparations and decided to scrap the training plan and focus only on squad and platoon training rather than collective company and battalion training. We spent a month just working on shoot, move, and communicate skills at the squad and platoon levels. With no training above platoon level we took the ARTEP and passed with flying colors. The commander's rational was if our squads and platoons perform to standard we will be successful.

Small units are key.

 

20. Navy won't remove ‘anti-American’ books from reading list despite House Republicans’ concerns

militarytimes.com · by J.D. Simkins · March 16, 2021

We have to stop this censorship, cancel culture, culture wars, false patriotism, etc. I side with the CNO.

 

21. With Chevy halting production of the Camaro, junior enlisted must find purpose elsewhere

militarytimes.com · by J.D. Simkins · March 16, 2021

Oh no. At least Ford will still have the Mustang (which I understand will have an all electric version!)

 

22. Operation Kingpin: 27 Minutes at Son Tay

operationkingpin.com

Great initiative. I was sorry to learn we just lost CSM Jack Joplin (my first Bn CSM when I was a young SF team leader). We need to honor these great Americans.

Go to the link to see the renderings and to donate to the cause

 

------------------

 

"I don't mind a good fight. For reasons known only to God, I've had quite a few tough ones in my life. But I learned an important lesson along the way: In the end, it matters less that you can fight. What you fight for is the real test."

-John McCain

 

"I have sacrificed not only my favorite scheme of life, but the softer affections of the heart, and my prospects of domestic happiness, and I am ready to sacrifice my life also, with cheerfulness, if that forfeiture could restore peace and good will among mankind."

- John Paul Jones

 

"Leadership means firmness, not harshness or bullying; understanding, not weakness; justice, not irresponsible freedom; humaneness, not intolerance; generosity, not selfishness; pride, not egotism"

- Omar N. Bradley

03/17/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Wed, 03/17/2021 - 10:04am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. South Korea's ruling party objects to cost-sharing deal for U.S. troops

2. US has assessed North Korea could be preparing to carry out first weapons test since Biden took office

3. U.S. general says North Korea might flight test new ICBM design 'in the near future'

4. N.K. propaganda outlet carries poster depicting S. Korea-U.S. alliance crushed

5. Pro-N.K. paper stresses Cabinet's role as control tower for economic policy

6. US warns North Korea could be planning ICBM test 'in near future' in test for Biden

7. Discussion of nuclearizing S. Korea may help denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmaker

8. S. Korean, U.S. defense chiefs to hold talks on N. Korea, OPCON transition

9. Siding with North Korea (warning to the Moon administration)

10. North Korea holds lecture in border region highlighting need to eliminate anti-socialist acts

11. Blinken says 'authoritarian' N.K. regime continues to commit 'systemic and widespread' abuses

12. Biden's North Korea Problem: Not Just About Nukes or Missiles Anymore

13. Kim Yo Jong Breaks the Silence, but What Does It Mean?

14. [Interview] Former Moon advisor says US should focus on NK nuclear issue, not human rights when it comes to NK

15. Joe Biden's contradictory stance on North Korea promises trouble ahead

16. Privatized War with Tim Shorrock (including COIN and Korea)

 

1. South Korea's ruling party objects to cost-sharing deal for U.S. troops

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · March 16, 2021

As was our concern. People told me that there is nothing to worry about because Moon's party is the majority in the national assembly and they would approve the SMA.  But it is his own party members who are objecting.

The SMA is not a done deal and Moon will have to expend some political capital to get it approved.  There are those in Moon's party who have a decidedly anti-American, anti-Alliance sentiment and they are now demonstrating public opposition and it is likely more will follow.  

This is an inflection point for the alliance.  

 

2. US has assessed North Korea could be preparing to carry out first weapons test since Biden took office

CNN · by Barbara Starr, CNN Pentagon Correspondent

Never say never.  But to do so now could remove any near term opportunities for negotiations.

What the regime may be hoping for is that the raising of tension by Kim Yo-jong will be sufficient for the ROK and international community as well as the US to want to increase calls for negotiations.  Of course we are going to call for negotiations, I am sure that will be part of the Biden administration policy review.  However, the regime may be setting the conditions to say its blackmail diplomacy line of effort works in support of its political warfare strategy. Blackmail diplomacy = the use of threats, tension, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions.  If the regime agrees to negotiations, it will assess it can do so because the call for negotiations by the US is in response to the regime's position of strength.  Yes, we should negotiate but we should not be afraid to expose the north Korean political warfare strategy. Exposing their strategy allows us to operate from a position of greater strength than the regime.

 

3. U.S. general says North Korea might flight test new ICBM design 'in the near future'

Reuters · by Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali · March 17, 2021

There must be intelligence indicators. The general is inoculating us to the next test. It will not be a surprise and it can allow the Biden administration to take a measured response to demonstrate strategic reassurance and strategic resolve without take part in a rhetorical exchange with the regime.  The Biden administration would do well to adopt a Teddy Roosevelt approach - talk softly and carry a big stick.

 

4. N.K. propaganda outlet carries poster depicting S. Korea-U.S. alliance crushed

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 17, 2021

We should not mock north Korean propaganda for its over the top visuals and rhetoric.  It often communicates the regime's true intentions.  And of course this type of propaganda is important for controlling the attitudes of the Korean people living in the north.

 

5. Pro-N.K. paper stresses Cabinet's role as control tower for economic policy

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 17, 2021

Actually as Robert Collins teaches us, it is the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) that is the control tower for everything, especially for the denial of human rights of the Korean people living in the north. 

 

6. US warns North Korea could be planning ICBM test 'in near future' in test for Biden

The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · March 17, 2021

We must be ready but this also could play a role in deterring such a test because our exposure of the possibility takes away the north's form of "shock and awe." We can say: "Nothing to see here" - "happened as expected" "The regime is simply testing to advance its capabilities" "It has no intention of reducing or halting its missile and nuclear development". "But make no mistake the US will defend the security of the US and its allies and here are some of the strategic capabilities that can crush the Kim family regime" - (deploy some B-1s, B-2s, B-52s, F-35s to the region).

 

7. Discussion of nuclearizing S. Korea may help denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmaker

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 17, 2021

This is unhelpful.  But I guess this is why the ROK and US agreed to the statement of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula at Panmunjom and Singapore. 

I also doubt very much China is "scared" of a nuclear South Korea or Japan.

 

8. S. Korean, U.S. defense chiefs to hold talks on N. Korea, OPCON transition

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 17, 2021

OPCON transition will be a critical friction point for the alliance as will be the different strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

 

9. Siding with North Korea (warning to the Moon administration)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

An important OpEd from the Joongang Ilbo's editorial board warning the Moon administration over the exercises and training rhetoric.

However, this excerpt is not accurate. It was not the ROK that "scaled down" the training and replaced it with computer simulation.  It was always a computer simulation and the exercise was planned by ROK/US CFC planners - ROK and US officers.  It was not scaled back by the ROK.

Excerpt: "We urge our government and military authorities to declare their clear position on joint military exercises. The Moon Jae-in administration not only scaled down the joint drill, which began earlier this month, but also replaced it with a computer-simulated command post training instead of mobilizing troops. The government may have pinned hopes on the possibility that North Korea will accept its proposal for dialogue as long as the annual drill could pass quietly."

This conclusion provides the warning to the Moon administration and a correct description of the Biden administration as well as the prescription for a strong alliance:

“The Moon administration must immediately stop flattering North Korea. If not, it will fall into a vicious cycle of emboldening it. For instance, the government hurriedly enacted a law aimed at punishing the act of sending anti-North leaflets and other materials cross the border shortly after Kim Yo-jong condemned the practice. Such submissive attitudes send the wrong message to North Korea.

Kim Yo-jong warned the United States not to engage in any provocative acts in the next four years if it wants its people to sleep at night. The Kim regime is closely monitoring the Biden administration’s new North Korea policy. But if Pyongyang believes such a threat can help change the new U.S. administration, that’s a serious miscalculation. On their trip to Seoul Wednesday, the two U.S. secretaries have a two-plus-two meeting with their counterparts. Seoul and Washington must speak in the same voice to prevent North Korea’s provocations and encourage policy changes from Pyongyang.”

 

10. North Korea holds lecture in border region highlighting need to eliminate anti-socialist acts

dailynk.com · March 17, 2021

The regime is defending against its existential threat: information and knowledge among the Korean people living in the north.  The "criminal behavior" is listening to outside information.

This excerpt explains the nature of north Korea and rule by the Kim family regime.  But I know there are those who think "anti-reactionary thought laws" might be a good thing for some partisan agendas.

 

11. Blinken says 'authoritarian' N.K. regime continues to commit 'systemic and widespread' abuses

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 17, 2021

Good words from the SECSTATE. We must take a human rights upfront approach and we must never be afraid to call out the mafia-like crime family cult for its documented crimes against humanity.

 

12. Biden's North Korea Problem: Not Just About Nukes or Missiles Anymore

19fortyfive.com · by Eric Gomez · March 16, 2021

This assessment, while possibly having some truth to it, is troubling.  This is not a good sign for the ROK/US alliance and hopefully the SECSATTE and SECDEF will be able to prevent this perception:

“Washington’s review of its North Korea policy is still ongoing but based on these recent statements it seems likely that the Biden administration will adopt a policy that is more closely aligned with Japan’s rather than South Korea’s preferences. This would be bad news for the Moon administration, which has consistently stressed the need for greater U.S. engagement with North Korea despite Kim going to ground after the Hanoi summit.

A tougher U.S. policy that brings Washington and Tokyo into closer alignment would help Biden differentiate himself from Trump, but it is unlikely to nudge North Korea closer to either denuclearization or arms control. Instead of trying to make allies happy, the Biden administration should focus on looking out for the best interests of the United States.”

 

13. Kim Yo Jong Breaks the Silence, but What Does It Mean?

38 NORTH · March 16, 2021
A very optimistic assessment.

But let me state the real meaning of the action described in this excerpt. It is correct that the regime does not want Moon to align too closely with Biden:

“Kim Yo Jong’s statement is transparently aimed at South Korea in advance of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Seoul. The bottom line is pretty clear: President Moon Jae-in might still make some sort of progress in inter-Korean relations before the end of his term—which is fast approaching at the beginning of next year—but only IF he presses the US and doesn’t line up 100 percent with a new US policy should it call for more pressure against the North.

But the true intent is to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance.  That is a key line of effort (Divide to conquer - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK) and the key condition to be able to ensure the survival of the regime by bringing the entire peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.”

 

14. [Interview] Former Moon advisor says US should focus on NK nuclear issue, not human rights when it comes to NK

Hani · by Lee Je-hun · March 10, 2021

Dangerous, troubling, and immoral thinking and comments from Moon Chung-in.  This is the type of advice Moon Jae-in is receiving from one of his closest advisors.

 

15. Joe Biden's contradictory stance on North Korea promises trouble ahead

The Telegraph · by Mark Almond

This is a great description of the Kim family regime:

“Perhaps the best way to understand North Korea’s peculiar tactics – courtship by insult and threat – is to imagine them with a David Attenborough voiceover in the background: “The Kim is a ferocious beast, known to devour its closest relatives, but it emits a radioactive glow and sharp barks when trying to lure a mate from the wider world.”

 

16. Privatized War with Tim Shorrock (including COIN and Korea)

historicly.substack.com · by Robert Granniss

It is nice of the publisher to provide the time hacks and the bullet points.  But anyone who follows Korea will note the huge inaccuracies (and outlandish ideas) of some of the statements.

The podcast can be accessd here:

 

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"I don't mind a good fight. For reasons known only to God, I've had quite a few tough ones in my life. But I learned an important lesson along the way: In the end, it matters less that you can fight. What you fight for is the real test."

-John McCain

 

"I have sacrificed not only my favorite scheme of life, but the softer affections of the heart, and my prospects of domestic happiness, and I am ready to sacrifice my life also, with cheerfulness, if that forfeiture could restore peace and good will among mankind."

- John Paul Jones

 

"Leadership means firmness, not harshness or bullying; understanding, not weakness; justice, not irresponsible freedom; humaneness, not intolerance; generosity, not selfishness; pride, not egotism"

- Omar N. Bradley

03/16/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Tue, 03/16/2021 - 11:05am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin with Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Defense Minister Nobua Kishi Before Their Meeting

2. Surprise Attack: How China Could Start a War Against Taiwan

3. INDOPACOM Drafts Regional Strategy For All-Domain Ops

4. A story for Quad

5. Quad heads welcome cooperation from other countries

6. FDD | After a decade of despair, Syria needs our help

7. History Can Teach Joe Biden How to Outcompete China

8. Report - Cyber Fundamentals for SOF | SOF News

9. The Military Could Soon Face a Flag Officer Talent Crisis

10. ‘Just not going to happen’: US warns China over Australian trade stoush

11. A New Step Forward in PLA Professionalization

12. Air Force squadron in South Korea replaces pit bull morale patch linked to white supremacy

13. After the Insurrection, America’s Far-Right Groups Get More Extreme

14. Op-Ed: Look to the Reagan administration for the answer to the China challenge

15. Cornell Faculty Revolt Against China Partnership

16. IOC under fire after ‘dismissing’ claims of genocide against Uighurs in China

17. The disinformation tactics used by China

18. New US Army doctrine coming summer of 2022

19. Why the U.S. Won’t Leave the Indo-Pacific

20. America’s Coronavirus Catastrophe Began With Data

21. Even Tucker Carlson Has a Right to Bash the Military

22. Five Strategies for the New 'Civil' War

23. DOD Officials Describe Conditions in Indo-Pacific

 

1. Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin with Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Defense Minister Nobua Kishi Before Their Meeting

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State

 

2. Surprise Attack: How China Could Start a War Against Taiwan

19fortyfive.com · by Daniel Davis · March 15, 2021

Davis advocates for sustaining strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan.

 

3. INDOPACOM Drafts Regional Strategy For All-Domain Ops

breakingdefense.com · by Theresa Hitchens

Excerpts:

JADC2 is the emerging strategy for how the Joint Force will command the highly automated, fast paced and globalized battlefields of the future, now also sitting on Milley’s desk.

“We’ve been intimately involved in all things related to Joint All Domain Command and Control,” he said. As you know, each of the services are pursuing various command and control constructs. You’re very familiar, I think, with Project Convergence in the US Army, Project Overmatch with the US Navy. The Air Force, I think, has really been a driving force behind the JADC2 in the way of CONOPS, or concept of operations development, and some of the tactics, techniques and procedures that will go into that as well. And they’re doing that materially through their ABMS [Advanced Battle Management System] program — so we’re tied in directly with all of these efforts.”

INDOPACOM already has been working on some experimental tech to implement JADC2 with DARPA, Ka’iliwai said, although neither he nor a DARPA spokesperson would go into any detail citing the sensitive nature of the efforts.

“We also have a very robust experimentation program when it comes to JADC2,” Ka’iliwai said. “We’ve actually exercised some of those constructs during our recent exercise Valiant Shield in the fall of last year.”

 

4.  A story for Quad

indianexpress.com · March 15, 2021

A view from India.

Conclusion: “This broad-based practical agenda of the Quad also counters a second Chinese narrative on the forum. When it was not demonising the Quad as “Asian Nato”, the Chinese leadership dismissed it as transient “sea-foam”. The repurposing of the Quad to deal with shared challenges in the Indo-Pacific ensures the forum’s political sustainability over the longer term. It has taken quite a while for the Quad to arrive at this balanced framework; but the summit has gotten it just right. As the Quad finds a new credibility, China might be unwise to continue with its dual policy of condemnation and condescension. All four capitals — Delhi, Canberra, Tokyo and Washington — have huge stakes in a productive, peaceful and mutually beneficial relationship with China that has risen to become the world’s second largest economic and military power. It is up to Beijing now to rethink its current aggressive policies and seek cooperative relations with its Asian neighbours and the US. But if China continues to pursue hegemony, the Quad is bound to become an inevitable balancing force.”

 

5. Quad heads welcome cooperation from other countries

donga.com · March 16, 2021

Excerpt: “Recalling that the Quad was initially created to respond to the tsunami that devastated parts of Indonesia in 2004, the leaders said they are again summoned to act together in support of a region in need in this new age of interconnection and opportunity throughout the Indo-Pacific. The Quad leaders also gave a detailed explanation on what they discussed at the Quad summit, such as response to the pandemic and cooperation on climate change.”

 

6. FDD | After a decade of despair, Syria needs our help

fdd.org · by David Adesnik · March 15, 2021

Conclusion: “There have been few major battles in Syria since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, yet the war is far from over. The U.S. may not be able to end that war, but a well-crafted policy, including sanctions, can shape its course and alleviate suffering while imposing a measure of accountability on Assad and his enablers.”

 

7. History Can Teach Joe Biden How to Outcompete China

19fortyfive.com · by James Holmes · March 14, 2021

Conclusion: 

“That the balance of folly favors the United States and its friends is no cause for complacency, though. Carl von Clausewitz counsels that failure is always an option in strategic competition or warfare. Clausewitz would concur with King Archidamus: it’s natural to hope an antagonist will blunder, and to welcome and exploit such blunders when they occur. It is unsafe to depend on an opponent to defeat itself.

Let’s up our game—and be safe.”

 

8. Report - Cyber Fundamentals for SOF | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · March 16, 2021

The four page paper can be accessed here

 

9. The Military Could Soon Face a Flag Officer Talent Crisis

defenseone.com · by Col. Charles Luke

I did not expect this argument:

“At a minimum, Congress should delink the pay cap for retirement pay. This would provide a retirement equivalent to the pay scale for all service members, while not paying them more than members of Congress. Additionally, military pay caps should be adjusted based on the annual increase in the Employment Cost Index.

Another possible solution with historical precedent would be to selectively remove the cap for certain positions based on the level of responsibility, such as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the service chiefs, and the combatant commanders. Finally, the military should adopt an innovative retirement system commensurate with the inherent risks, responsibilities and commitment of a senior military leader.

It’s time for Congress and the Pentagon to begin serious consideration of how to address senior leader pay. Delinking military pay from the civilian Executive Schedule is an important start.”

 

10. ‘Just not going to happen’: US warns China over Australian trade stoush

The Sydney Morning Herald · by Peter Hartcher · March 16, 2021

We should pay close attention to this. This is one line of effort for the Quad. Coming to the defense of a member against Chinese economic warfare. South Korea should understand this is the kind of defense the Quad can offer if China again conducts economic warfare against the South as it did during the THAAD deployment.

 

11. A New Step Forward in PLA Professionalization

realcleardefense.com · by Joel Wuthnow and Phillip C. Saunders

A New Step Forward in PLA Professionalization

 

12. Air Force squadron in South Korea replaces pit bull morale patch linked to white supremacy

Stripes · by  Matthew Keller · March 16, 2001

 

13. After the Insurrection, America’s Far-Right Groups Get More Extreme

defenseone.com · by Matthew Valasik

Excerpts:

“But that approach has ended. Merrick Garland’s appointment as Biden’s attorney general is a big signal: In his career at the Department of Justice before becoming a federal judge, Garland supervised the investigations of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing and the 1996 Atlanta Olympics bombing.

These were two of the most noteworthy acts of far-right domestic terrorism in the nation’s history. Garland has said that he will make fighting right-wing violence and attacks on democracy major priorities of his tenure at the head of the Justice Department.

In January, Canada designated the Proud Boys and other right-wing groups as terrorist organizations, which puts pressure on U.S. law enforcement to reconsider how they evaluate, investigate and prosecute these extremist groups. Beyond law enforcement’s treating these far-right groups like street gangs, there are also laws in place to combat violence associated with domestic terrorism.

It appears that U.S. prosecutors may finally begin to take seriously the violent actions of Proud Boys, especially as more and more members are being charged with coordinating the breach of the U.S. Capitol Building.

But as police power comes to bear on these violent right-wing groups, many of their members remain at least as radicalized as they were on Jan. 6 – if not more so. Some may feel that more extreme measures are needed to resist the Biden administration. “

 

14. Op-Ed: Look to the Reagan administration for the answer to the China challenge

Los Angeles Times · by H.R. McMaster and Jonathan D.T. Ward · March 15, 2021

The 10-page declassified NSDD 75 can be accessed here.  

I like to read the Reagan national security documents because there are a lot of brilliant ideas in them. We can learn a lot from them.

 

15.  Cornell Faculty Revolt Against China Partnership

freebeacon.com · by Yuichiro Kakutani · March 15, 2021

Good for the professors. Bottom line versus values.

Conclusion:

“The senate will hold a nonbinding vote on the issue on March 17. Administrators can push ahead with the plan even if professors disapprove, but the stakes are high. If faculty members vote against the joint degree program, they might also oppose Cornell's many other programs in China.

Abandoning those partnerships would be disastrous to the university's bottom line, something Fiskesjö says may be its only choice.

"If you carry on business as usual, you end up legitimizing and endorsing what they're doing," he said. "You can run a genocide … and it doesn't matter, we'll keep opening new exchange programs with you."

 

16. IOC under fire after ‘dismissing’ claims of genocide against Uighurs in China

The Guardian · by Sean Ingle · March 12, 2021

As it should be. Can anyone be neutral when genocide is being committed?

 

17. The disinformation tactics used by China

BBC · by Krassi Twigg and Kerry Allen · March 16, 2021

 

18. New US Army doctrine coming summer of 2022

Defense News · by Jen Judson · March 15, 2021

 

19.  Why the U.S. Won’t Leave the Indo-Pacific

WSJ · by Walter Russell Mead

Excerpts:

“The picture wasn’t always a beautiful one. Racist attitudes and the U.S. colonial venture in the Philippines left a complicated and sometimes bitter legacy. But if Americans haven’t always been noble or wise in their Pacific policies, they have always been engaged.

That is unlikely to change today. The region is more central to U.S. prosperity and security than ever. Seeking a balanced and secure regional order—without war traps, Thucydidean or otherwise—is a challenging task. America and its allies are sure to make some mistakes.

But if allies sometimes doubt U.S. wisdom, the American commitment to the region is so deeply grounded in history and the structure of U.S. interests that walking away from the region is the one thing Washington is least likely to do.”

 

20. America’s Coronavirus Catastrophe Began With Data

defenseone.com · by Robinson Meyer and Alexis C. Madrigal

Excerpts:

To avoid another data calamity, our public-health system must expend as much energy on understanding the present as it does on modeling the future. Governing through a pandemic—or any emergency—is about making the least-bad decisions with the best information available. That information can take many forms; it doesn’t have to be data. But if you do look at the data, then you must understand how each point, each cell, was made; otherwise, you’re likely to be misled.

Our leaders should also put some faith in the capabilities of those whom they govern. The COVID Tracking Project clung to one principle: We told people the truth as we could discern it. We didn’t say what we wanted to be true, nor what we hoped would engender a specific public response.

Working on the COVID Tracking Project has been the honor of our lives. For a year, every day, dozens of volunteers—programmers, librarians, high schoolers, a former hotel manager—came together to make an honest account of one of the most horrifying ordeals that any of us had ever experienced. This team of former strangers, united by concern and curiosity, salvaged something useful from the din. We held fast to one another, and we made sense of the world as we could.

 

21. Even Tucker Carlson Has a Right to Bash the Military

The Daily Beast · by Matt Lewis · March 15, 2021

As I have previously written: What @TuckerCarlson said is reprehensible & indefensible. But there is only one response to it from any US military service member who believes in his or her oath:

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - S.G. Tallentyre

 

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"Debate is never finished; it can't be, lest democracy be no longer democratic and society be stripped of or forfeit its autonomy. Democracy means that the citizen's task is never complete. Democracy exists through persevering and unyielding citizens' concern. Once that concern is put to sleep, democracy expires."

-Zygmunt Bauman

 

"The sides are being divided now. It’s very obvious. So if you’re on the other side of the fence, you’re suddenly anti-American. Its breeding fear of being on the wrong side. Democracy’s a very fragile thing. You have to take care of democracy. As soon as you stop being responsible to it and allow it to turn into scare tactics, it’s no longer democracy, is it? It’s something else. It may be an inch away from totalitarianism."

- Sam Shepard

 

"Democracy becomes a government of bullies tempered by editors."

-Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

03/16/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Tue, 03/16/2021 - 10:49am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. FDD | Ahead of U.S.-ROK Meeting, Unresolved Policy Disputes Still Trouble the Alliance

2. It Will Be Hard to See Again Spring Days Three Years Ago (Kim Yo Jong's Statement about ROK/US Training)

3. Biden aides bristled when Justice official called North Korea a 'criminal syndicate,' say officials

4. Troubles ahead for the US–South Korea alliance

5. S. Korea, U.S. to hold 'two plus two' meeting on alliance, N. Korea, China issues

6. Blinken says U.S. is looking at pressure measures, diplomatic paths, in N.K. policy review

7. Enforcing Sanctions on North Korea Is an Opportunity for Cooperation at Sea

8. While North Korean Missiles Sit in Storage, Their Hackers Go Rampant

9. 1/3 of Vaccine Recipients Have Adverse Reaction (South Korea)

10. Defense minister expresses regret over N. Korea's criticism of military exercises

11. Defense ministry calls for N. Korea's 'flexible' stance, full implementation of military pact

12. With Biden envoys in Asia, Kim’s sister warns US, SK

13. U.S. Pushes for Closer Ties Between Korea and Japan

14. Strategic clarity in 2+2, 2021

15. Blinken and Austin's visit to Seoul

16. N Korea warns US not to 'cause a stink' before Seoul meeting

17. Israel, South Korea to co-operate on unmanned airborne ISTAR

18. U.S. will work on denuclearization of North Korea with allies: Blinken

19. They left behind children to find freedom. The choice haunts North Korean refugee women

 

1. FDD | Ahead of U.S.-ROK Meeting, Unresolved Policy Disputes Still Trouble the Alliance

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha Research Analyst · March 15, 2021

Excellent analysis from my colleague, Mathew Ha.

 

2. It Will Be Hard to See Again Spring Days Three Years Ago (Kim Yo Jong's Statement about ROK/US Training)

kcnawatch.org · March 15, 2021

This is the statement that has everyone spun up. There is a lot of press reporting on this as everyone is trying to read the tea leaves.

She is referring to the Panmunjom Declaration in April 2018 (Spring days three years ago)

The first most obvious point of this message is to simply drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance. That is one of the most critically important lines of effort in the regime's strategy. It must break the alliance to successfully dominate the Korean peninsula. The timing of this is perfect with th 2+2 ministerial talks about to take place in Seoul. It is also attempting to explicate the rhetoric coming out of Seoul, in particular from the Minister of Unification but others as well who are opposed to combined ROK/US training. I think this is the number one purpose of the message.

Another aspect of this message is the possibility of the continued good cop/bad cop relationship of Kim Yo-jong and her brother. Her statements (again attributed directly to her and published in her voice which is rare) can give KJU the ability to walk this back in the future if he chooses to. They have been testing this out since Kim Yo-jong-'s first public statement last March and what we saw happen in June.

In addition, this both serves to reinforce Kim Yo-jong's legitimacy as a senior member of the Kim Family regime (the importance of the lack party titles notwithstanding not bestowed during the 8th Party Congress) as well as the strength of the Paektu bloodline. This could contribute to the legitimacy of eventual succession should something happen to Kim.

This is also the continuation of a new play in the Kim family regime playbook that was first executed this past June when Kim Yo-jong made threats against the South over escapee/defector information operations, and then acted on the threat by destroying the ROK Liaison office at the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The result of this action was South Korean appeasement and the passing of the anti-leaflet amendment in December which actually contributes to the protection of the Kim family regime because of the existential threat caused by information flow to the Korean people living in the north. The intent, at a minimum is for the ROK to pressure the US to halt training (which I do not believe it will agree to) and if the US does not agree to halt training the regime hopes for some catastrophic break in the alliance such as the ROK halting participation. I think that is unlikely to happen but the regime sees evidence of ROK appeasement of the north due to the Moon administration failure to recognize and understand the true nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

It is critically important for the alliance not to bow down to Kim Yo-jong's threats. The talks this week must result in a renewed commitment to the alliance and a recognition that this statement illustrates not only the true nature of the regime but also its growing playbook and the strategy the playbook is designed to support - namely domination of the Korean peninsula to ensure survival of the Kim family regime.

 

3. Biden aides bristled when Justice official called North Korea a 'criminal syndicate,' say officials

NBC News · by Carol E. Lee and Ken Dilanian · March 16, 2021

Three points. First, the Kim family regime is a mafia-like crime family cult that is conducting illicit activities around the world. Department or Office 39 is a global crime syndicate. 

Second, our rhetoric will not influence the Kim regime either positively or negatively. We need to realize that Kim is executing his playbook and he is not reacting to our rhetoric. Sure, the Propaganda and Agitation Department will spin our words for propaganda purposes but our rhetoric will not have any influence over Kim Jong-un decision making. Unfortunately, when the regime blames its actions on our rhetoric (a convenient excuse for doing or not doing something as it already planned) we go into a round of self criticism and blame. 

Third, the journalists have missed the point on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. They must not have got the memo or they did not read Sung Kim's statement closely enough. He specifically said denuclearization of north Korea, as have most all administration officials.  Moon and Trump were duped at Panmunjom and Singapore into agreeing to denuclearization of the Korean peninsula which has a very specific meaning for north Korea. Although there have been no nuclear weapons in South Korea since we unilaterally removed them in 1991-1992 in the regime's calculus it is the presence of US troops that provide access to nuclear weapons and the continued deployment of US strategic assets reinforces that. Denuclearization of the Korean peninsula plays right into the regime's hands to negotiate the end of the US hostile policy by ending the alliance, removing US troops and ending extended deterrence over the ROK and Japan. It is good for the Biden Administration to correct tis error. The press needs to get on board.

Also the UN Security Council has demanded an end to the regime's nuclear program (not denuclearization of the Korean peninsula) since 2016 and the passage of UNSCR 1718. Denuclearization of north Korea is the correct statement and everyone needs to get on board and not fall for regime rhetorical traps.

Security Council Resolution 1718

Resolution 1718 was unanimously adopted by the UN Security Council on October 14, 2006, shortly after North Korea’s first nuclear test on October 9. The full text of Resolution 1718 is available here.

Resolution 1718’s Principal Provisions

Resolution 1718:

  • Demands North Korea refrain from further nuclear or missile tests.
  • Demands North Korea return to the NPT.
  • Decides North Korea shall suspend all ballistic missile activities.
  • Decides North Korea shall abandon its nuclear program in a “complete, verifiable, and irreversible” manner.
  • Decides North Korea shall abandon all WMD activities.
  • Calls upon North Korea to return to the Six-Party Talks.

Resolution 1718’s Principal Sanctions

Member states are prohibited from the “direct or indirect supply, sale, or transfer” to North Korea, of:

  • Heavy weaponry, such as tanks, armored vehicles, large caliber artillery, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships and missile systems
  • Spare parts for the above mentioned heavy weaponry
  • Materials and technologies that could contribute to North Korea’s WMD programs and ballistic missile related activities, as set out in prior Security Council documents
  • Luxury goods

Member states are also required to:

  • Freeze the funds or financial assets of entities designated by the Security Council as providing support for North Korea’s nuclear, missile, and other WMD programs

 

4. Troubles ahead for the US–South Korea alliance

lowyinstitute.org · by Khang Vu

No. The Moon administration's peace at any cost vision is dangerous to the security of the ROK and the ROK/US alliance. The problem is in the subtitle - we cannot "indulge" the Moon administration's "hopes."

But the author does point out a number of thorny points of friction (such as the Japanese abductee issues).

 

5. S. Korea, U.S. to hold 'two plus two' meeting on alliance, N. Korea, China issues

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 16, 2021

Excerpts:

“The meeting comes as the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden seeks to leverage what it calls America's "greatest strategic asset" -- alliances with South Korea, Japan and others -- to uphold a "free and open" Indo-Pacific region being challenged by a rising China.

The high-profile gathering was instituted in 2010 to stress the robustness of the alliance after the North's deadly torpedo attack on the South's corvette Cheonan. Though it started as a regular dialogue platform, it has not been held since the last and fourth session in Washington in October 2016.”

 

6. Blinken says U.S. is looking at pressure measures, diplomatic paths, in N.K. policy review

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 16, 2021

Key points:

"We're looking at whether various additional pressure measures could be effective, whether there are diplomatic paths that make sense, all of that is under review," Blinken said at the press conference following the so-called two plus two meeting with the Japanese ministers.

"Going forward we have a shared determination to deal with the challenge posed by North Korea, particularly when it comes to its nuclear missile programs, as well of course as its abuse of human rights," he added.

 

7. Enforcing Sanctions on North Korea Is an Opportunity for Cooperation at Sea

warontherocks.com · by Artem Sherbinin · March 16, 2021

Excellent essay from a LTG. He provides information about coalition coordination we do not often see.

Conclusions:

“The coalition generates strategic outcomes for the United States beyond the scope of stopping petroleum imports to North Korea. Cooperation at sea improves the United States’ ability to surveil China’s near seas, increases interoperability between the U.S. Navy and partner states’ militaries, eases the operational burden on the U.S. Seventh Fleet, offers an avenue for cooperation with China, and improves the strategic and military relationship between South Korea and Japan. So why has the United States not taken the steps outlined above since the cell was established in 2018?

Chinese uncooperativeness and mistrust of the U.S. alliance system — as well as the Donald Trump administration’s erratic policy shifts regarding China and North Korea and transactional and bilateral approach to international affairs — impeded maritime collaboration in East Asia over the past four years. As a result, American security cooperation initiatives throughout the region have been limited to foreign military sales and financing, and a series of disparate bilateral naval and military exercises. Similarly, naval cooperation with China dwindled after its navy was uninvited from the region’s largest multinational naval exercise, Rim of the Pacific, in 2018.

Biden has stated that he willing to “work with China” and that he will place alliances and multinational cooperation at the forefront of his foreign policy. Such an approach creates the opportunity to bring new life to fledgling organizations such as the Enforcement Coordination Cell. But, in order to leverage the enforcement group to achieve greater strategic ends, the Biden administration and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command will first need to align primary and secondary political objectives with existing and potential member states, demonstrate the benefits of cooperation to China, and resolve naval interoperability challenges that have plagued East Asia for decades.”

 

8. While North Korean Missiles Sit in Storage, Their Hackers Go Rampant

Foreign Policy · by Morten Soendergaard Larsen · March 15, 2021

The all-purpose sword is critically important to the survival of the Kim family regime. Unlike the treasured sword of nuclear weapons, it has immediate, practical application and can be employed with little fear of a significant response (yet!)

 

9. 1/3 of Vaccine Recipients Have Adverse Reaction (South Korea)

english.chosun.com · March 16, 2021

And there are many cases in Europe as well. It is interesting the US FDA has not approved the AstraZeneca vaccine.

 

10.  Defense minister expresses regret over N. Korea's criticism of military exercises

en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · March 16, 2021

Kim Yo-jong's statement may also be in response to Minister Suh's misguided and ill-timed statement that ROK/US combined exercises should be negotiated with the north. The regime probably believes Kim Yo-jong's statement helps establish the conditions for such negotiations.

Note the comment on the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement. We should note that the north has not implemented the terms of the agreement to any significant extent except for changes to procedures in the JSA and the removal of a handful of guard posts.

 

11. Defense ministry calls for N. Korea's 'flexible' stance, full implementation of military pact

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 16, 2021

For nearly three years we have been testing the CMA and the idea we can cancel, postpone, and/or scale back exercises and that it will engender a positive response from north Korea. Kim Jong-un has proven that is not the case.

 

12. With Biden envoys in Asia, Kim’s sister warns US, SK

asiatimes.com · by Sunghee Hwang · March 16, 2021

This rhetoric conforms with the historical patterns of north Korean propaganda. 

 

13. U.S. Pushes for Closer Ties Between Korea and Japan

english.chosun.com · March 16, 2021

Trilateral cooperation will be a key element of the Biden Administration policy. And none of the three countries can be successful toward north Korea and China without strong and effective trilateral cooperation. And a trilateral alliance would be even better but I know that is a pipe dream for the next 3 or 10 generation)

 

14. Strategic clarity in 2+2, 2021

The Korea Times  · by Ahn Ho-young  · March 16, 2021

From our good friend Ambassador Ahn. He makes an important recommendation that I think we should consider.

 

15.  Blinken and Austin's visit to Seoul

The Korea Times · by Lee Seong-hyon · March 16, 2021

Very interesting analysis.

Excerpts:

“So, Alaska is the destination. Tokyo and Seoul are stopovers.

The Alaska meeting will not be successful, but it is important. It will be an occasion for both sides to exchange their respective bottom lines, to define what will be perceived as "violations" that will provoke strong reactions, including kinetic ones. The U.S. is concerned that an overconfident China may become more adventurous with its military actions, miscalculating Washington's will to react. Beijing will also reiterate its so-called "core interests." The meeting, after all, is to manage conflict between the two competing powers so that things don't get out of control.

Finally, there is one thing that both Blinken and Austin must demonstrate during this trip. They should emit calm confidence and mature leadership that can gain back the trust of their Asian allies that have been bullied by China and were belittled by Trump. Restoring their trust must come first. And there is the old maxim by John F. Kennedy: Ask not what your ally can do for you ― ask what you can do for your ally. It's a reminder for both Seoul and Washington.”

 

16.  N Korea warns US not to 'cause a stink' before Seoul meeting

AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung · March 16, 2021

We should not be distracted by the colorful rhetoric. This is a serious statement designed to drive a wedge in the ROK//US alliance.

 

17. Israel, South Korea to co-operate on unmanned airborne ISTAR

janes.com  ·  by Gareth Jennings · March 15, 2021

 

18. U.S. will work on denuclearization of North Korea with allies: Blinken

Reuters · by Reuters Staff · March 16, 2021

The press must pay attention to the SECSTATE words. We must purge the words denuclearization of the Korean peninsula from the reporting. It is denuclearization of north Korea.

 

19. They left behind children to find freedom. The choice haunts North Korean refugee women

Los Angeles Times · by Victoria Kim · March 16, 2021

Such tragic stories. But all blame for this rests on the shoulders of the Kim family regime and the system and situation and conditions it has created in north Korea. It is a human tragedy on a scale we find difficult to comprehend. And China is complicit in north Korean human rights abuses.

 

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"Debate is never finished; it can't be, lest democracy be no longer democratic and society be stripped of or forfeit its autonomy. Democracy means that the citizen's task is never complete. Democracy exists through persevering and unyielding citizens' concern. Once that concern is put to sleep, democracy expires."

-Zygmunt Bauman

 

"The sides are being divided now. It’s very obvious. So if you’re on the other side of the fence, you’re suddenly anti-American. Its breeding fear of being on the wrong side. Democracy’s a very fragile thing. You have to take care of democracy. As soon as you stop being responsible to it and allow it to turn into scare tactics, it’s no longer democracy, is it? It’s something else. It may be an inch away from totalitarianism."

- Sam Shepard

 

"Democracy becomes a government of bullies tempered by editors."

-Ralph Waldo Emerson

03/15/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Mon, 03/15/2021 - 9:31am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Opinion | America’s partnerships are ‘force multipliers’ in the world (SECSTATE and SECDEF)

2. Quad Summit 2021: Why is China Rattled?

3. Taiwan’s cabinet reshuffle a response to China’s ‘unrestricted warfare’

4. White House Weighs New Cybersecurity Approach After Failure to Detect Hacks

5. 'We are human and we messed up': U.S. Marine account apologizes for comments defending female service members

6. Satellite maps show China building helicopter base facing Taiwan Strait

7. Biden builds bridges to contend with Beijing

8. Why Britain is tilting to the Indo-Pacific region

9. China has brought its repressive surveillance tools to Hong Kong

10. China's Deep Strike

11. U.S. Has 1,000 More Troops in Afghanistan Than It Disclosed

12. Covid-style virus 'could be used as a terror weapon to bring new pandemic', expert warns

13. Biden Goals Converge in Asia: Rebuilding Alliances and Countering China

14. Biden Team Engaged in ‘Rigorous’ Debate Over Ending Forever War

15. Incorporating the Cyberspace Domain: How Russia and China Exploit Asymmetric Advantages in Great Power Competition

16. Redefine Readiness or Lose (USAF and USMC)

17. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 15, 2021 | SOF News

18. Police Shrugged Off the Proud Boys, Until They Attacked the Capitol

 

1. Opinion | America’s partnerships are ‘force multipliers’ in the world (SECSTATE and SECDEF)

The Washington Post · by Antony J. Blinken and Lloyd J. Austin III · March 14, 2021

A very strong essay from the two Secretaries (kudos to their action officers/speechwriters).

They are talking to the American people to explain why alliances are important to all of us.

Excerpts:

“Ahead of that journey, we want to take the opportunity to lay out why alliances are vital to our national security and how they deliver for the American people.

...

A fundamental debate is underway about the future — and whether democracy or autocracy offers the best path forward. It’s up to us and other democracies to come together and show the world that we can deliver — for our people and for each other.

...

All that work is tied directly to the safety, well-being and economic security of the American people.”

 

2. Quad Summit 2021: Why is China Rattled?

financialexpress.com · by Major General S B Asthana · March 14, 2021

Excerpt:

“The agenda seems benign, but Beijing did not miss the connection of freedom of navigation, overflight and the concerns over “aggression” and “coercion” against members of Quad by China in its first summit meeting. No-one during the Summit called out China directly, but China knows that it challenged rule-based order by junking PCA’s decision in South China Sea (SCS) and continues to coerce countries in Indo-Pacific region. Chinese response of calling Quad meeting as ‘selective multilateralism’ and ‘covid politics’ shows its frustration due to emergence of an alternate global vaccination collaboration, something which China had unilaterally reserved for itself for profiteering.”

 

3. Taiwan’s cabinet reshuffle a response to China’s ‘unrestricted warfare’

aspistrategist.org.au · by Corey Lee Bell · March 12, 2021

There should be no doubt that the PRC is conducting unrestricted warfare.

Excerpts:

“But that’s just one way to look at it. An alternative theory is that the reshuffle reflects the administration’s attempts to confront the growing challenges posed by China’s model of ‘unrestricted warfare’, which replaces a narrow focus on kinetic warfare with a wider array of options, including ‘grey zone’ tactics, lawfare, political warfare and economic leverage.

To understand why this may be the case, it’s useful to examine the personnel changes in more detail.”

 

4. White House Weighs New Cybersecurity Approach After Failure to Detect Hacks

The New York Times · by David E. Sanger, Julian E. Barnes and Nicole Perlroth  · March 14, 2021

Excerpts:

“When not one but two cyberhacks have gone undetected by the federal government in such a short period of time, it’s hard to say that we don’t have a problem,” said Representative Mike Gallagher, Republican of Wisconsin and a co-chairman of a congressionally mandated cyberspace commission. “The system is blinking red.”

The failures have prompted the White House to begin assessing options for overhauling the nation’s cyberdefenses even as the government investigates the hacks. Some former officials believe the hacks show Congress needs to give the government additional powers.

But briefing reporters on Friday about the progress of the investigations, senior administration officials said the White House had no plans to urge Congress to rewrite the laws that prevent American intelligence agencies from operating inside America’s borders.

One senior adviser to President Biden said, however, that a new structure was needed, one that combined traditional intelligence collection with the talents of private-sector firms.

 

5. 'We are human and we messed up': U.S. Marine account apologizes for comments defending female service members

USA Today · by Matthew Brown, USA TODAY

 

6. Satellite maps show China building helicopter base facing Taiwan Strait

taiwannews.com.tw 

 

7. Biden builds bridges to contend with Beijing

eastasiaforum.org · by Ryan Hass · March 15, 2021

Excerpts:

“The United States must simultaneously allay concerns among partners about being ‘forced to choose’ between the United States and China. The inescapable reality is that China’s importance to other countries is growing. It is the world’s largest trading power and the leading engine of global economic growth.

Given this reality, the United States will need to give allies space to pursue their own interests with China, even while they partner with the United States on priority issues. Washington will also need to demonstrate — through its own words and actions — that it supports developing a constructive relationship with China, even as it prepares to push back strongly against problematic Chinese behaviour.

Somewhat counterintuitively, the more Washington is seen as responsibly working to develop durable relations with Beijing, the more diplomatic space it opens for cooperation with others on China. Washington’s partners will feel more comfortable working with the United States on issues relating to China when doing so is not perceived as an expression of hostility towards China.

The Biden administration’s approach to China reflects a subtle but significant departure from the Trump administration’s more direct approach of confronting China. President Biden and his team recognise that the results of their strategy may not be visible for some time and do not harbour illusions of changing China overnight. They intend to play a long game. If their approach bears fruit, the United States will fortify its capacity to compete with China from a position of strength.”

 

8. Why Britain is tilting to the Indo-Pacific region

The Guardian · by Patrick Wintour · March 15, 2021

The old saying: Europe is the continent of the past, America is the continent of the present, and Asia is the continent of the future.

 

9.  China has brought its repressive surveillance tools to Hong Kong

asia.nikkei.com · by  Dan McDevitt · March 15, 2021

Does Hong Kong provide a glimpse of the future of authoritarian states?

Excerpts:

“But recent events have made plain the Chinese government's intention to transform Hong Kong's digital spaces just as it has the city's offline environment and, last week, its electoral system.

In January, Hong Kong authorities used the security law as grounds for blocking a website for the first time, compelling mobile providers to disrupt access to HKChronicles, which compiled information on anti-government protests and personal data on police and their supporters.

...

Contrary to the predictions of former U.S. President Bill Clinton, the Chinese government has effectively "nailed Jell-O to the wall" with its effective controls over online information flows, so we should not be surprised that they would try to do it again in Hong Kong.

But we can also be sure that just as in China, dissident groups and voices will continue to operate, even at great personal risk. At this critical moment, it is important that the world support these voices and not cast a blind eye to what is happening in Hong Kong, online and off.”

 

10. China's Deep Strike

spytalk.co · by Matthew Brazil

Excerpts:

“Now it seems to be applying the same strategy in the West’s rear area, causing disruptions to online systems and simultaneously benefitting the Chinese economy with viruses and worms used to steal information from computer systems worldwide.

...

Bad actors in China and beyond, whether working on behalf of intelligence services or criminal organizations, are expected to rapidly develop HAFNIUM “proof of concept exploits,” i.e. to show that they can use the vulnerability to burrow into a target system by performing benign tasks like opening up the calculator, or moving the cursor. From there, it is a short step to weaponizing the exploit with malware.

...

It is no surprise that the multi-stage, malicious HAFNIUM operation from China against Microsoft Exchange servers bears some operational resemblance to the Solar Winds attack from Russia. Both rely on widespread use of a targeted system, i.e. Solar Winds and Microsoft Exchange, as the vector to reach the real objective: the tens of thousands of users who possess sensitive information like U.S. defense production data, weapons systems designs, trade secrets useful to China’s latest Five-Year Plan, and the emails of Beijing’s perceived political enemies.

...

Once an exploit is posted on Github, anyone can use it. Criminals then go after low hanging fruit, including the vast number of people who don’t bother with software updates and patches. That especially includes those using pirated software. Previously a cheap alternative, pirated software has become the Typhoid Mary of the digital space.”

 

11. U.S. Has 1,000 More Troops in Afghanistan Than It Disclosed

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt · March 14, 2021

It is always about the headcount - the troop numbers. I feel for the poor personnel officers who have to account for the numbers using arcane systems and different defined categories for accounting. 

But here is the issue:

“The cloudy accounting around the troop numbers results from some Special Operations forces having been put “off the books,” according to a senior U.S. official, as well as the presence of some temporary and transitioning units. These troops, according to a second U.S. official, include Joint Special Operations Command units, some of them elite Army Rangers, who work under both the Pentagon and the CIA while deployed to Afghanistan.

Having more troops in a country than the Defense Department officially acknowledges is common practice. From Syria to Yemen to Mali, the United States often details military troops to the CIA or other agencies, declares that information “classified” and refuses to publicly acknowledge their presence.”

 

12. Covid-style virus 'could be used as a terror weapon to bring new pandemic', expert warns

Mirror · by William Walker · March 15, 2021

The sky is falling or a prudent warning?

 

13. Biden Goals Converge in Asia: Rebuilding Alliances and Countering China

The New York Times · by Lara Jakes, John Ismay and Steven Lee Myers · March 14, 2021

Yes, this is going to be quite a week of diplomacy.

Excerpt: After the meetings in Tokyo and Seoul, Mr. Austin will travel to India, which is at its lowest point in relations with China in decades after a deadly border incursion last summer. Mr. Blinken will arrive in Alaska on Thursday for the meeting with the Chinese envoys.

 

14.  Biden Team Engaged in ‘Rigorous’ Debate Over Ending Forever War

Foreign Policy · by Michael Hirsh · March 12, 2021

Excerpts:

“As Obama’s vice president, Biden was a first-hand witness to the frustration his predecessor felt. “Obama really wanted to end the forever wars,” Johnson said. “But sometimes events get in the way of that. We wanted to get out of Iraq completely, but [the civil war] in Syria complicated that. Then along came the Islamic State in about 2014.”

Even so, there can be an endpoint. In a series of speeches, Johnson and other officials in the Obama administration sought to distinguish between al Qaeda and more regional actors, like what would become the Islamic State. As the Pentagon’s general counsel in 2012, Johnson mapped out just how the never-ending war might end. “[T]here will come a tipping point … at which so many of the leaders and operatives of al Qaeda and its affiliates have been killed or captured and the group is no longer able to attempt or launch a strategic attack against the United States, such that al Qaeda as we know it, the organization that our Congress authorized the military to pursue in 2001, has been effectively destroyed.”

That tipping point, Johnson said this week, has been reached. “When the conflict that Congress authorized in 2001 comes to an end, then we should have the political courage to say it,” he said.

 

15. Incorporating the Cyberspace Domain: How Russia and China Exploit Asymmetric Advantages in Great Power Competition

mwi.usma.edu · by Mark Gzrgorzewski · March 15, 2021

Conclusion: “In short, Russia and China view information and cyberspace operations differently than the United States does, and they are designing their operations and cyberinfrastructure to engage the United States asymmetrically. As previously noted and despite persistent claims to the contrary, both states see themselves currently engaged in information warfare against the United States. The military application of information as an instrument of war—in isolation and in conjunction with other tools—is a central component of these states’ modern approach to warfare, both today and into the foreseeable future. Recognition of this reality must undergird America’s cyberspace and information warfare policies and doctrine.”

 

16. Redefine Readiness or Lose (USAF and USMC)

warontherocks.com · by Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr. and Gen. David H. Berger· March 15, 2021

Conclusion: “We have done this before, and together we can do it again while avoiding perceptions of creating winners and losers. Today’s Air Force and Marine Corps, and our assumed dominance of the air and littorals, were shaped by innovative and courageous individuals throughout our storied histories. Seeing the need for change when others did not, our forebears overcame the traditionalist opposition of their day, forged new technologically advanced capabilities, and developed novel operational concepts that paved the way for the many successes to which our shared history bears witness. We can do it again. If we are bold enough and committed to providing the military advice needed to overcome our present orientation, we can shape our future proactively. The alternative, as various military institutions have discovered to their sorrow in the past, is being forced to re-shape ourselves reactively, after experiencing catastrophic loss and potential defeat. To do this, we cannot let our focus on near-term availability consume the resources necessary to generate truly relevant future readiness through adaptive modernization. We have a unique, but limited, window of opportunity. The time to act is now.”

 

17. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 15, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · March 15, 2021

 

18. Police Shrugged Off the Proud Boys, Until They Attacked the Capitol

The New York Times · by David D. Kirkpatrick and Alan Feuer · March 14, 2021

 

------------------

 

What @TuckerCarlson said is reprehensible & indefensible. But there is only one response to it from any US military service member who believes in his or her oath:

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - S.G. Tallentyre

 

"If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter."

- George Washington

 

"In the U.S., the country that has always been lecturing the world about the value of freedoms - of freedom of speech, of everyone's right to speak up - the U.S. has now become a beacon, a leader, in this movement to shut everyone up. That's so disappointing."

- Margarita Simonyan

03/15/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Mon, 03/15/2021 - 9:15am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1.  Seoul shouldn't hesitate joining the Quad initiative

2. S. Korea, U.S. to initial defense cost-sharing deal after 'two plus two' meeting: sources

3. North Korea 'not responding' to US contact efforts

4. U.S. working as middleman to help Korea-Japan relations

5. North Korea further tightens control over the Sino-North Korean border

6. [ANALYSIS] Why is Pyongyang unresponsive to Biden administration?

7. UN Rights Official Warns of Starvation, Poverty in North Korea From Long COVID-19 Lockdown

8. Can North Korea Find Peace Without Disarming?

9. Korea’s Big Economic Conundrum: Mo Money, Mo Problems

10. Military personnel to receive COVID-19 vaccines starting in June

11. Washington is soon to complete its new North Korea policy

12. Moon's approval rating falls to 9-week low amid LH land speculation scandal

13. North’s ambassadors stuck overseas, have to share residence

14. Kim Jong-un cold shoulders 'diplomatic outreach' by Joe Biden in sharp contrast to 'bromance' with Trump

15. North Korean Youth Find Ways to Dodge Military Service

 

1.  Seoul shouldn't hesitate joining the Quad initiative

straitstimes.com · March 15, 2021

 

Seoul must do so because it is in the best interests of South Korea to do so and because of any US arm twisting. Seoul must decided which side of the debate they want to be on. This quote from SECSTATE and SECDEF in their WAPOST OpEd defines the issues for all of us: "A fundamental debate is underway about the future — and whether democracy or autocracy offers the best path forward. It’s up to us and other democracies to come together and show the world that we can deliver — for our people and for each other."  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/14/americas-partnerships-are-force-multipliers-world/

Seoul must decide.

Excerpts:

“If anything, it would prove wiser for Seoul not to be late in making clear its willingness to join an expanded Quad.

The current Quad countries now focus on a broad strategy of finding common fields where they counter Beijing without forming an overtly anti-China front. South Korea needs to join early-stage discussions within the emerging multilateral framework if it wants to inject a more inclusive view while standing alongside other participants on key democratic values.

Eventually, it will not be able to afford to stay out of the scheme the Biden administration is seeking to use as a vital tool to forge a global solidarity against China in both security and economic terms. A belated move to join the Quad would only amplify China's ire and receive a half-hearted welcome from the US.”

 

2. S. Korea, U.S. to initial defense cost-sharing deal after 'two plus two' meeting: sources

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 15, 2021

As noted this must still be approved by the South Korean national assembly. Since Moon's party is in the majority it should pass but you never know.

 

3. North Korea 'not responding' to US contact efforts

BBC 

Excerpts:

“North Korean state media has yet to acknowledge that Joe Biden is now the American president.

US attempts to communicate with Pyongyang have included the "New York Channel" - through the North Korean mission at the United Nations.

A US official told Reuters news agency there had been "multiple attempts" to engage with North Korea, but no meaningful contact for more than 12 months, which includes much of Donald Trump's final year as president.”

 

4. U.S. working as middleman to help Korea-Japan relations

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com  · Sarah Kim

Trilateral cooperation is key to security in Northeast Asia.

 

5. North Korea further tightens control over the Sino-North Korean border

dailynk.com · March 15, 2021

This is what is strangling the Korean people living in the north. Not sanctions.

 

6. [ANALYSIS] Why is Pyongyang unresponsive to Biden administration?

The Korea Times · March 14, 2021

Simplest answer: Kim is not ready and does not see an immediate advantage to being responsive. He may be waiting to see what a new Biden policy will be.

But Dr. Shin may very well be correct here. Kim demands a change to the US hostile policy and concessions first.

Excerpt: “Shin Beom-chul, the director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said it could be that Pyongyang is giving a message to Washington that the Biden administration should first make a change in its earlier position to stick with "principles" when it comes to North Korea policy, and that Pyongyang would respond to Washington's outreach after the latter makes a concession by easing sanctions.”

 

7. UN Rights Official Warns of Starvation, Poverty in North Korea From Long COVID-19 Lockdown

rfa.org

This is Kim Jong-un's policy decision. His decisions are responsible for the suffering.

 

8. Can North Korea Find Peace Without Disarming?

nationalinterest.org · by Jacob Heilbrunn

Two points - a trade of ICBMs for sanctions relief is not a deal at all. It is a dangerous proposal.

Second: There is no Track II diplomacy with north Korea. Every person engaging foreigners is a member of the party (government). The best we can hope for is Track 1.5 (Our track II former diplomats meeting with Track 1 party/government officials). I think the author doe snot understand the nature of the Kimfamily regime.

Excerpts:

“Sanctions, domestic mismanagement, natural disasters and Covid-19 have left North Korea’s economy—by Kim’s own admission—in desperate need of repair. For America, which currently lacks effective ballistic-missile defences, the prospect of being in North Korea’s nuclear crosshairs is unacceptable. Could this point to a possible trade-off, namely the lifting of sanctions in exchange for the elimination of missiles?

Such a deal would leave North Korea’s theatre nuclear force untouched and help mend the country’s economy while reducing the risk of a pre-emptive American strike. It would also immunise the US against a possible North Korean ICBM attack, leaving it better placed to meet South Korean and Japanese security needs. And with diplomatic representation in each other’s countries, both sides would have reliable channels to address disputes and manage relations generally.

To determine whether Kim’s regime would be open to serious negotiation, the Biden administration could initially endorse so-called Track II diplomacy—former US government and non-government interlocutors meeting informally with North Korean officials in third-party countries. If the outreach sparked interest in Pyongyang, the door to formal talks would open. America’s default option is to return to tried-and-failed efforts to persuade North Korea to disarm. The challenge will be to convince leaders on both sides that diplomatic normalisation leading to an ICBM–sanctions trade-off is the best path forward.

 

9. Korea’s Big Economic Conundrum: Mo Money, Mo Problems

WSJ · by Mike Bird

Conclusion: “Korea’s achievements in breaking into the ranks of the world’s richest countries are impressive—but it will need to do much more than just rest on its laurels if it wants to keep marching higher up through the income ranks.”

 

10. Military personnel to receive COVID-19 vaccines starting in June

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 15, 2021

This is a combined military readiness issue. All ROK/US Combined Forces Command headquarters and component headquarters personnel (ROK and US) should have been vaccinated more than a month ago.

 

11. Washington is soon to complete its new North Korea policy

donga.com· March 15, 2021

Again, I hope when the new policy is announced, POTUS will announce his new Special Representative for North Korea, Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights, US Ambassador to the ROK,and the new US Military Commander in Korea. As we all know, personnel is policy.

 

12. Moon's approval rating falls to 9-week low amid LH land speculation scandal

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · March 15, 2021

 

13. North’s ambassadors stuck overseas, have to share residence

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by  Michael Lee

"Unusual cohabitation."

Excerpt:

“Ji was appointed to the position in October 2010, when the North and China commemorated the 60th anniversary of China’s entry into the Korean War. The unusual cohabitation situation of the North’s ambassadors has not been remarked upon by official Chinese or North Korean sources. According to diplomatic sources, there are several North Korean officials who were locked outside their country while on official business in Dandong and Shenyang in January last year. They have since been given consular posts in China. One of these officials is Ri Chang-dok of the United Front Department — the department of the Workers’ Party of Korea charged with South Korea relations.”  

 

14. Kim Jong-un cold shoulders 'diplomatic outreach' by Joe Biden in sharp contrast to 'bromance' with Trump

meaww.com

Does Kim hate Biden?

 

15. North Korean Youth Find Ways to Dodge Military Service

rfa.org

Long term implications? 

 

---------------

 

What @TuckerCarlson said is reprehensible & indefensible. But there is only one response to it from any US military service member who believes in his or her oath:

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - S.G. Tallentyre

 

"If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter."

- George Washington

 

"In the U.S., the country that has always been lecturing the world about the value of freedoms - of freedom of speech, of everyone's right to speak up - the U.S. has now become a beacon, a leader, in this movement to shut everyone up. That's so disappointing."

- Margarita Simonyan

03/14/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Sun, 03/14/2021 - 1:26pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1.  Opinion | Our four nations are committed to a free, open, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region (from the four leaders)

2.  FOCUS: Uncertainties linger over how U.S. promotion of Quad will play out

3. The Trick to Challenging China in the Post-Trump Era

4. He helped Trump bring American hostages home. Now he's working for Biden.

5. America Is Headed to a Showdown Over Taiwan, and China Might Win

6. The CIA Has Lots of Secret Ways to Get Russia's Best Weapons

7. IntelBrief: Emerging Terrorist Financing Threats and Trends

8. Five Chinese firms, including Huawei and ZTE, designated as threats to US national security

9. Three Lessons from the Past 365 Days of Online Misinformation

10. China arms for war, as Quad fights back

11. Why the Chinese Military Wants Magnetized Plasma Artillery (What?)

12. Air Force Special Operations Forces: Readying for a Russia or China War?

13. Could China's Belt and Road Lead to Its Undoing?

14. Marines apologize, will "adjust fire" after Twitter war of words over Tucker Carlson

 

1. Opinion | Our four nations are committed to a free, open, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region

The Washington Post · by Joe Biden, Narendra Modi, Scott Morrison and Yoshihide Suga · March 13, 2021

This seems like an unprecedented OpEd.  I wonder how much work this was for some key action officers trying to coordinate this. This took some amazing staff work behind the scenes.

 

2. FOCUS: Uncertainties linger over how U.S. promotion of Quad will play out

english.kyodonews.net 

Excerpts:

“Grossman said a summit meeting was "the next logical step" after foreign ministerial meetings began to be held from 2019, but noted that what has drawn the four countries closer together has been that they are "genuinely" concerned that "China's assertiveness continues to tick up throughout the Indo-Pacific."

An escalation in maritime disputes is feared in the East China Sea, where the Japanese-controlled, Chinese-claimed Senkaku Islands are located, with Beijing recently implementing a law that explicitly allows its coast guard to use weapons against foreign ships it sees as illegally entering China's waters.

India and China are at loggerheads over a disputed border region in the Himalayas, while Australia and China have seen a rise in trade tensions in the wake of the pandemic.

By working together, the four countries are expected to have a "significant amount of strategic heft," Grossman said, as can be seen from an agreement reached on Friday to supply up to 1 billion coronavirus vaccine doses to the region by the end of 2022.

"India is the pharmacy of the world...in terms of manufacturing, and so vaccine distribution, if you have India involved, that's a really positive thing," he said.

 

3. The Trick to Challenging China in the Post-Trump Era

The National Interest · by Patrick Mendis · March 13, 2021

The subtitle says it all.  An interagency, whole of government, (whole of nation?) approach is required.  But of course we always say this.

Excerpts:

“It is hard to predict just how many American values will be sacrificed in doing business with China, but one thing must be made clear, this tolerance is not infinitely elastic as Biden articulated in his Foreign Affairs article. Certainly, the Biden White House is not completely departing from the Trump administration’s policies and congressional acts, rather reinforcing them with America’s enduring democratic values.

Much is still to be deliberated and worked out in the Biden White House’s National Security Strategy. Unlike the Trump administration’s evangelical foreign policy driven by nativism, the Biden administration needs a government-wide alignment in action to revitalize the position of American strength with a concerted effort “to engage with the world.” In that sense, Biden is correct to say, “America is back. Diplomacy is back. Alliances are back. But we are not looking back.”

In retrospect, the American experience of moralpolitik is living up to its founding convictions of freedom, equality, and liberty from one “inflection point” to another. By welcoming the “position of strength” embedded in the enduring advantages of American education, democracy and diversity, the United States is destined to overcome the strategic rivalry, or a threat posed by China, Russia, or any other country.”

 

4.  He helped Trump bring American hostages home. Now he's working for Biden.

news.yahoo.com · by Jenna McLaughlin · March 13, 2021

Roger does the SF Regiment and brotherhood proud.

He is the example that counters this ignorant position:

A DC think tanker (redacted) said on Twitter: Special Forces soldiers on the ground are amazing at their jobs. For that, they deserve our respect & gratitude. But they never see the big picture & should never be allowed near a strategic debate. With that, no flag officer in the US military disagrees.

An SF guy replies: Guys like this at least make it possible to understand why, after so many revolutionaries overthrow their governments, they then round up the "intellectuals" and line 'em up against a wall… - Mike Roof (SF guy who studies the strategy of revolution, resistance, and insurgency)

 

5. America Is Headed to a Showdown Over Taiwan, and China Might Win

Bloomberg · by Max Hastings · March 14, 2021

The referenced CFR 102 page report can be accessed here

Excerpts:

“Diplomatic dialogue between Washington and Beijing has almost broken down, not least because China’s representatives have become so rude and aggressive, apparently uninterested in compromises. There is no hope of a grand bargain between the two sides, but they need to get talking again, if only to clarify positions.

The best chance of deflecting a Chinese assault is surely not military. Even if the White House summoned the will to commit U.S. forces against Chinese aggression, they might not prevail in Xi’s backyard. The goal should be deterrence, with a focus on economic incentives for improved Chinese relations with the U.S. A forcible occupation of Taiwan would incur a massive cost to all parties.

Unfortunately, recent history — the oppression of Uighur Muslims in Western China, for example —suggests that Xi is willing to bear economic pain, and to shrug off international abuse, in order to assert and extend Chinese power. The world will be fortunate to escape a Taiwan showdown. Whether or not we accept Blackwill and Zelikow’s prescriptions, they are right that the U.S. needs urgently to dust off its options to meet a looming threat.”

 

6. The CIA Has Lots of Secret Ways to Get Russia's Best Weapons

The National Interest · by Michael Peck · March 13, 2021

 

7. IntelBrief: Emerging Terrorist Financing Threats and Trends

thesoufancenter.org · March 12, 2021

Excerpt:

“Terrorist groups have proven effective in seeking new means of enhancing their organizational and operational capabilities. Recent reports have indicated the persistence of online slave markets operated by ISIS and its supporters to continue to raise funds. This has been the subject of negotiations among governments who finally adopted a Security Council resolution enabling the designation of terrorists under sanctions for sexual violence and human trafficking to support terrorism; however, no real action has been taken on this front to date. Similarly, while the sale of arts and antiquities from conflict zones has long been recognized as a crime and an area terrorist groups have successfully capitalized upon, little has been done to implement related obligations with the same vigor as sanctions. However, in the United States earlier this year, Congress increased scrutiny of the antiquities market as part of the National Defense Authorization Act. As a result, regulators, who have long worried about the opaque nature of the antiquities trade, were empowered to design measures bring greater transparency to the sale of arts and antiquities. This also brings persons “engaged in the trade of antiquities, including an advisor, consultant, or any other person who engages as a business in the solicitation or the sale of antiquities,” under the scope of the Banking Secrecy Act. The evolution of terrorist and criminal groups over the past few decades has highlighted their resilience and creativity, but also the possibility that governments, the private sector, and civil society can be adaptive and responsive when needed; it is therefore critical to ensure that research and analysis allows policymakers and practitioners to stay one, or a few, steps ahead.

 

8. Five Chinese firms, including Huawei and ZTE, designated as threats to US national security

SCMP· by Owen Churchill  · March 13, 2021

This will spice up the meeting in Alaska.

 

9. Three Lessons from the Past 365 Days of Online Misinformation

inkstickmedia.com · by Laicie Heeley · March 11, 2021

The lessons:

LESSON #1: THE INTERNET IS EVERYTHING AND EVERYTHING IS THE INTERNET

LESSON #2: DIGITAL MISINFORMATION OUTBREAKS CAN LOOK SMALL BUT BE BIG

LESSON #3: WE CAN’T REVERSE THE CONSEQUENCES OF PAST ONLINE MISINFORMATION OUTBREAKS

 

10. China arms for war, as Quad fights back

The Australian · by Greg Sheridan  · March 13, 2021

Excerpts:

“The positive agenda is real and should have regional and even global benefits. The size of the four economies combined — the US, Japan, India and Australia — means they have more than enough mass to ensure allied independence, even leadership, in critical technologies that will determine military and economic superiority in the future, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, rare earths minerals, and hypersonic weapons.

The Quad is not even officially called a security dialogue, it’s just a dialogue. However, the Malabar naval exercises, to which Australia was invited last year as a full participant, are effectively the Quads’ military exercises under another name.

The Quad is not a military alliance. The Quad is not everything. But it is a powerful emerging piece of regional architecture. The combined strategic hope of the Quad leaders is that they provide strategic balance by creating a series of incentives and disincentives for Beijing, which keep it away from military action in Taiwan, and elsewhere.

Much that Beijing does not like in the current environment it has created itself. India was cautious about the Quad until Beijing provoked a bloody border dispute. The Australian strategic class had for years been telling governments and business that the nation needed to diversify its economy away from China, but to no avail. A year of brutal and entirely gratuitous trade bullying by Beijing has now convinced the whole Australian nation of the need to diversify. The Biden administration is infinitely more hard-headed towards Beijing than the second Obama administration ever was. This is not because they were persuaded by the silver-tongued oratory of Trump. They were persuaded by the actions of Beijing.”

 

11. Why the Chinese Military Wants Magnetized Plasma Artillery (What?)

The National Interest · by Michael Peck · March 13, 2021

 

12.  Air Force Special Operations Forces: Readying for a Russia or China War?

The National Interest · by Kris Osborn · March 11, 2021

No mention of the enormous SEAD packages which would be required to support operations in the Russian or Chinese threat environments.

 

13. Could China's Belt and Road Lead to Its Undoing?

The National Interest · by Joseph M. Parent · March 14, 2021

Hmmm... one can only hope.

 

14. Marines apologize, will "adjust fire" after Twitter war of words over Tucker Carlson

Newsweek · by David Brennan · March 14, 2021

Watching this play out on Twitter has been interesting.  But some official service Twitter accounts have gone too far.  I wonder if they will be able to calibrate future responses to incidents like this.  They had better be prepared for this because Tucker Carlson and people like will continue to make these outrageous statements purely for entertainment purposes. It is a brave new world.

 

--------------------

 

“We must endure the ignorant to protect the liberty of the majority.”

- James D. Best, Tempest at Dawn

 

“Politics doesn’t mean playing deceitful and trickery games against the people, it means playing resourceful and organized games for the people.”

- Amit Kalantri

 

“To sum up: politically speaking, it is insufficient to say that power and violence are not the same. Power and violence are opposites; where the one rules absolutely, the other is absent.”

- Hannah Arendt, On Violence

03/14/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Sun, 03/14/2021 - 1:10pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Former U.S. nuke negotiator urges Seoul, Washington to refrain from large-scale military exercises

2. Exclusive: North Korea unresponsive to behind-the-scenes Biden administration outreach - U.S. official

3. Thaad fallout needs to serve as a “wakeup call” for Seoul: Daalder

4. Biden, Quad leaders affirm commitment to denuclearization of N. Korea

5. Blinken to embark on Asia trip to discuss N. Korea, China issues amid U.S. policy review

6. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's health is the biggest threat to his power — and his sister's only shot at succession

7. Report release: The future of the US-ROK alliance - Atlantic Council

8. North Korean Defectors Want America to Fight Kim to the Last American

9. North Korea Tried to Help Syria Become a Nuclear Powerhouse

10. #53: Establish a US-ROK Alliance Cyber-Defense and Cyber-Deterrence Mechanism

 

1. Former U.S. nuke negotiator urges Seoul, Washington to refrain from large-scale military exercises

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 12, 2021

With all due respect, Ambassador Gallucci could not be more wrong. I will defer to him for his long experience negotiating with north Korea and brokering the Agreed Framework. However, his military advice could not be more wrong and dangerous. It will put the ROK at great security risk and it will not result in his desired effects- reciprocity and a change in north Korean behavior. We have tested this hypothesis since June 2018 aswe have cancelled, postponed, and scaled back exercises and it has not resulted in any improvements in any area - weather north-South relations, US-north negotiations, or reductions in the threat along the DMZ. The north has continued to develop military capabilities, continued training for offensive operations, stiff-armed all South Korean efforts for engagement, and has not agreed to participate in the most basic of nuclear negotiations, e.g., working level talks.

 

2. Exclusive: North Korea unresponsive to behind-the-scenes Biden administration outreach - U.S. official

Reuters · by Phil Stewart · March 13, 2021

As most of us suspected the Administration has been attempting to reach out through back channels (if this report is accurate). Perhaps after the past three years of unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy, Kim doesn't think he needs to respond through more conventional diplomatic channels. We are going to have to wean him off the notion that he gets to deal directly with POTUS without allowing for real (and principled) diplomacy to be conducted.

 

3. Thaad fallout needs to serve as a “wakeup call” for Seoul: Daalder

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

And more to this interview.

Key excerpt:

“If you’re sitting in Seoul, you’d say, wouldn’t it make sense if I am part of this discussion since our views and our perspectives are a little closer to this alignment than it is to China?” said Daalder. “Now, I don’t think the U.S. or the Quad says you need to choose us or them, I don’t think that’s smart, but finding ways to collaborate more closely probably is a good idea.”

He noted that the fallout over the deployment of the U.S.-led Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile system, resulting in Beijing's economic retaliation against Seoul, should be a “wakeup call” for South Korea to ask, “Are we going to let the Chinese determine what we needed to do for our own defense, or are we going to work together with our allies?”

He added that the Biden administration is expected to “start a dialogue” with Korea to find an understanding on where common interests and values lie and on “how we might cooperate and compete, and if necessary, confront China.”

 

4. Biden, Quad leaders affirm commitment to denuclearization of N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 13, 2021

We should not forget that the UN Security Council has passed resolutions calling for the denuclearization of the north. It is the desire of the international community that north Korea denuclearize. It is not up to the US or even the Quad to seek a lesser objective than what the international community has called for so it would have been wrong for the Quad to do anything other than reaffirm the commitment.

 

5. Blinken to embark on Asia trip to discuss N. Korea, China issues amid U.S. policy review

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · March 14, 2021

This trip could be a major inflection point for the US in Northeast Asia and could establish the path forward for US interests and collective security for years to come - at least for the remainder of the Biden administration (no pressure!). But if the two secretaries and two ministers can come to agreement on the fundamental strategic assumptions regarding the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime as well as work the other issues of OPCON transition, human rights, counter-proliferation, sanctions enforcement, US forces access to training areas, strategic flexibility for US forces, great power competition and the impact of China-US relations on the alliance, ROK-Japan relations, and the Quad Plus it will go along way to re-establishing a solid alliance foundation to achieve our mutual objectives of national security and national prosperity. These four gentlemen have a lot on their plate this next week.

 

6. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's health is the biggest threat to his power — and his sister's only shot at succession

ABC.net.au · March 13, 2021

Interesting speculation. I am sure we have physicians as part of the Korea watcher team.

Perhaps Kim should be afraid, very afraid.

 

7. Report release: The future of the US-ROK alliance - Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council  · by Barry Pavel, Miyeon Oh, and Markus Garlauskas

The 64 page report can be downloaded here. Chapter summaries are below.

Executive Summary

 1. A New ‘National Security Alliance’: Re-setting the US-ROK Alliance for the Pandemic Era

2. The Future of the US-ROK Economic Partnership

3. A Step-by-Step Strategy for Denuclearization and Peace on the Korean Peninsula: The Road Not Taken after Singapore

4. The Evolving North Korean Threat Requires an Evolving Alliance

5. North Korean Non-Nuclear Threats to Stability

 

8. North Korean Defectors Want America to Fight Kim to the Last American

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · March 13, 2021

A rather disingenuous and insulting title to the great people who have escaped from north Korea (even if the author acknowledges their bravery).

The escapees I know certainly want Kim Jong-un deposed; however, most I know (and I know more than a few) do not want the US to start a war or want the US to do it for them. Most all believe that Korean solutions are required and not American ones. They certainly advocate for US help but they certainly do not advocate the US fighting to the last American. That is truly insulting.

In addition hope is not a course of action. But the author bases his policy recommendations on hope rather than a realistic assessment of the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

Excerpts:

“Although North Korean defectors typically do not provide good policy advice regarding the DPRK, they are a useful reminder of the moral stakes in defusing the Korean confrontation. The endless cold war favored by some hawks ensures stasis on human rights as well.

The Biden administration should follow up its predecessor’s emphasis on negotiation and press a balanced initiative that offers improved economic and political relations in exchange for serious disarmament. Perhaps Kim Jong-un will dismiss the bargain. On the other hand, he just might demonstrate that he is different from his father and grandfather. It would be foolish for Washington to lose the opportunity without trying.”

 

9. North Korea Tried to Help Syria Become a Nuclear Powerhouse

The National Interest · by Marcel Serr · March 12, 2021

This is why we need to aggressively focus on north Korean proliferation activities. It is a real international threat. And we should never allow proliferation to proceed as far as it did with Syria.

 

10.  #53: Establish a US-ROK Alliance Cyber-Defense and Cyber-Deterrence Mechanism

Atlantic Council · by Markus Garlauskas  · March 13, 2021

In 2018 my colleague Mathew Ha and I wrote this:

Create a combined ROK-U.S. Cyber Task Force 

Since the ROK and U.S. are the primary targets for North Korean cyber activities, the alliance should establish a task force of ROK and U.S. cyber experts to synchronize defenses and options for offensive operations. Although joint task forces are often ineffective, a combined entity should be pursued to ensure the alliance could adequately defend against the full range of North Korea’s cyber threats, from CEEW to wartime cyber operations.

On June 21, the 5th U.S.-Republic of Korea Bilateral Cyber Consultations were held in Seoul “to discuss a wide range of cyber issues, including cooperation on deterring cyber adversaries, cybersecurity of critical infrastructure, capacity building, information sharing, military-to-military cyber cooperation, cybercrime, international security issues in cyberspace, and current threats and trends in the international cyber environment.”163 An agenda item for the next consultative meeting and for the ROK/U.S. security consultative meeting in fall 2018 should be the establishment of a permanent combined ROK/U.S. cyber task force to supplement periodic consultation. A permanent task force is necessary to defend economic infrastructure and address the full range of cyber threats, including CEEW.

The Cyber Task Force should develop a combined strategy for operations during both armistice and wartime. It should consist of military and civilian experts from across the U.S. and ROK governments and include private sector experts as well. This would not contradict the indefinite suspension of combined military exercises following the Singapore summit. In fact, given that North Korea is likely to continue or escalate aggressive cyber operations during nuclear negotiations, the task force’s mission is only more urgent. 

The new task force should include enhanced information sharing. For instance, South Korea’s Korea Internet Safety Agency successfully prevented a spear-phishing campaign targeting 10 cryptocurrency exchanges earlier in 2017.164 Sharing insights from such experiences will be instrumental in fortifying cyber defenses.

The United States National Cyber Strategy calls for developing international partner capacity to support a new cyber deterrence initiative. A Combined ROK-U.S. Task Force would be one example of operationalizing

 

------------------

 

“We must endure the ignorant to protect the liberty of the majority.”

- James D. Best, Tempest at Dawn

 

“Politics doesn’t mean playing deceitful and trickery games against the people, it means playing resourceful and organized games for the people.”

- Amit Kalantri

 

“To sum up: politically speaking, it is insufficient to say that power and violence are not the same. Power and violence are opposites; where the one rules absolutely, the other is absent.”

- Hannah Arendt, On Violence