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06/11/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Fri, 06/11/2021 - 3:23pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. America Is Not Ready for a War With China

2. US begins shifting Afghan combat operations outside country

3. Op-eds in a Chinese state tabloid slammed U.S. policy. The author works at the Pentagon.

4. If China Is the No. 1 Threat, Why Doesn’t the 2022 Budget Reflect It?

5. Australia should steer the US off a values-based Indo-Pacific strategy

6. Japan to protect Australian naval ships under new security setup

7. Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win

8. Senate passes bill to compensate ‘Havana Syndrome’ victims who suffered brain injuries

9. Alarm Over China Spying, Hacking

10. US Army developing world's most powerful laser weapon for a 'future battlefield'

11. China’s Uyghurs living in a ‘dystopian hellscape’, says Amnesty report

12. Charting a Way Ahead in the High North: What We Learned from the Polar Special Operations Essay Contest

13. What Biden and Johnson really want from the new Atlantic Charter

14. A Most Adaptable Party (Chinese Communist)

15. Out of Sight Should Not Mean Out of Reach: Deterrence and the Proliferation of Hard and Deeply Buried Targets

16. Austin, Milley defend weapons cuts in Biden’s defense budget

17. 'Hack The Army' Uncovers 238 Cyber Vulnerabilities

 

1. America Is Not Ready for a War With China

Foreign Affairs · by Michael Beckley · June 10, 2021

Excerpts:It has become conventional wisdom that this gathering storm represents the inevitable result of Beijing’s rise and Washington’s decline. In fact, it is nothing of the sort. The United States has vast resources and a viable strategy to counter China’s military expansion. Yet the U.S. defense establishment has been slow to adopt this strategy and instead wastes resources on obsolete forces and nonvital missions. Washington’s current defense posture doesn’t make military sense, but it does make political sense—and it could very well endure. Historically, the United States has revamped its military only after enemies have exposed its weaknesses on the battlefield. The country may once again be headed for such a disaster.

To change course, the Biden administration must explicitly and repeatedly order the military to focus on deterring China and downsize its other missions. These orders need to be fleshed out and codified in the administration’s defense budget requests and in its National Defense Strategy. In addition, the administration should support the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a program that would plug holes in the U.S. defense perimeter in Asia. If the United States does not seize this chance to secure its military advantage over China, it may not get another.

...

Meanwhile, anti-China sentiment, both within the United States and around the world, has surged to its highest level since the Chinese government carried out the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. Getting tough with China is one of the few bipartisan initiatives in the United States, and China seems to be doing everything it can to fan these flames with “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy.

 

2. US begins shifting Afghan combat operations outside country

militarytimes.com · by Lolita Baldor · June 10, 2021

Excerpts: “The number of American troops needed for the overall security missions inside Afghanistan will depend on a variety of requirements, and could range from roughly a couple hundred to a bit less than 1,000, officials said. When the pullout officially began on May 1, the number of U.S. troops was between 2,500 and 3,500.

McKenzie is expected to provide options on the amount of aerial surveillance and drones needed to keep an eye on any potential resurgence of al-Qaida, the Islamic State or other militant groups. Those options will involve U.S. aircraft from ships at sea and air bases in the Gulf region, such as Al Dhafra air base in the United Arab Emirates. And they could range from persistent U.S. overwatch to a more minimal presence. Officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss planning details.

 

3. Op-eds in a Chinese state tabloid slammed U.S. policy. The author works at the Pentagon.

The Washington Post · by Michael E. Miller· June 11, 2021

Wow!

Here is the link to the April OpEd in Global Times: "Why US will lose a war with China over Taiwan island."  

 

4. If China Is the No. 1 Threat, Why Doesn’t the 2022 Budget Reflect It?

Defense One · by Bill Clark

Excerpts: “ If the Pentagon maintains its current footprint in the Middle East, to counter Iran, to support the Afghan government and to continue its operations in Iraq, will it be able to fully execute its refocus on China? That depends on whether the current presence is going to taper off, or if the over-the-horizon support turns into a persistent presence of airpower, said Stacie Pettyjohn, a former director of strategy and doctrine for the Air Force who is now the director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security. 

Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon was sending its sole Pacific theater aircraft carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan, to the Gulf to provide CENTCOM additional airpower support. That transit has not occurred and the carrier is still in the Pacific, the Navy said Thursday. The Navy would not discuss whether the carrier would eventually be sent to CENTCOM. 

“There is a zero-sum element to it, because we have a finite amount of force structure,” Pettyjohn said. “A lot of the assets you really need for any sort of operations or preparing for a high-end fight in the Indo-Pacific are similar, at least from the air and naval side.” 

“So you do end up sometimes taking from one area or another,” Pettyjohn said. “If you are really trying to be present and compete day to day in all of these places, that’s a lot of demand on the services to supply those forces.”

 

5. Australia should steer the US off a values-based Indo-Pacific strategy

lowyinstitute.org · by Susannah Patton

I disagree. We can protect interests without compromising our values. We need to rally like-minded democracies. But the author makes some good points that are worth pondering.

Excerpts: “Defining strategic competition in ideological terms is likely to create distance between the world’s democracies and the regional countries that Washington wants to assist.

It’s a refashioning of the strategic playbook that underpinned 20th century competition with the Soviet Union. And it entails a similarly sweeping goal “to reinforce, renovate and buttress a world order that favours freedom”.

But it’s the wrong approach for the Indo-Pacific today.

Despite the intuitive appeal of rallying the world’s democracies to check China’s power, this agenda can only unite a narrow coalition in the region. Unlike Western Europe in the 1950s, Indo-Pacific political systems are diverse, with few liberal democracies in the mix. Indeed, many of the US and Australia’s most important regional partners when it comes to competing with China – such as the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam and even India – fall outside the liberal democratic club.

Most of the region is sceptical about endorsing Biden’s values-based strategy, even as they share deep concerns about the nature and purpose of Chinese power. They are largely agnostic to the language of human rights and democracy promotion, and allergic to Cold War allusions that forebode the emergence of permanent ideological or economic divisions between blocs.

Explicitly defining strategic competition in ideological terms is likely to create distance between the world’s democracies and the regional countries that Washington wants to assist.

​Conclusion: “The most effective message that the Biden administration can send is that it remains committed to the security of the Indo-Pacific, and that it will cooperate with all countries – including China and other non-democracies – in pursuit of this goal. Four years after withdrawing from what was then known as the “Trans-Pacific Partnership”, the US must also signal that it plans to contribute to and benefit from the region’s economic growth.

This would not preclude the US from cooperating with liberal democracies or advocating human rights principles. But it would enable regional countries to support discrete aspects of the US agenda, for example on maritime security or infrastructure standards, even if they remain unwilling to wholly align themselves with Washington’s regional priorities.

Australian security depends on the sustainability of America’s presence in the Indo-Pacific. Rather than echoing Washington’s thinking, Morrison should urge Biden to adopt a strategy for regional influence that can succeed.​”

 

6. Japan to protect Australian naval ships under new security setup

asahi.com · by Naoki Matsuyama

I did not see this coming. A positive development.

Excerpts:Controversial national security legislation that took effect in 2016 included revisions to the SDF Law that allow SDF members to protect U.S. naval ships. From the outset of Diet deliberations, Australia was considered a likely future candidate if the need arises.

Japan and Australia have strengthened cooperative efforts in recent years in part to deal with maritime advances by China in the East China and South China seas. The offer of protection to Australian naval ships reflects the two countries' position that they increasingly regard each other as quasi-allies.

Once a request for protection is received from Australia, the National Security Council will decide whether to give it. The law does not require the government to report to the Diet about any expansion of the protection duties.

The two sides also agreed during the June 9 video conference to accelerate discussions to make it easier to visit each other during joint training exercises between Japan and Australia.

The two sides issued a joint statement after the meeting that for the first time named China as a nation of concern due to its activities in the South China Sea.

 

7. Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win

The Atlantic · by Thomas Wright · June 9, 2021 

A fascinating perspective. I saw a tweet that said the author has close ties to the administration that provide him with very accurate insights.

Excerpts:To implement his doctrine, Biden will have to be politically agile. Progressives have been vocal in criticizing his China policy, accusing the president of starting a cold war that could stoke anti-Asian sentiment. But this is a peculiar charge. After all, it was Bernie Sanders who made a foreign-policy speech in Fulton, Missouri, decrying authoritarianism, in an echo of Winston Churchill’s 1946 Iron Curtain address. And it was Elizabeth Warren who made the struggle against kleptocratic authoritarianism the centerpiece of her foreign policy as a presidential candidate. If anything, Biden is following in their footsteps. He should seek to enlist both senators in his efforts. Moreover, Biden should remind progressives that if the competition with China is not about values and democracy, then all that is left is to focus on China itself, which is truly a recipe for nationalism.

On the other side, conservatives will never agree with Biden wholeheartedly on foreign policy, but some are working with him on legislation pertaining to China. Many Republican senators are committed to U.S. alliances and emphasizing democracy and human rights in U.S. strategy, even if Trump and his supporters disagree with that stance. Some have even indicated that they would support multilateral organizations if they were necessary to compete effectively with China. Biden could take advantage of this gap between Republican senators and Trump to secure bipartisan support for key parts of his foreign policy.

Some presidents never find a doctrine. Biden has one. In his view, the United States is in a competition of governance systems with China. His response is not about spreading democracy at gunpoint or even democracy promotion per se, but about showing that democracy can deliver—at home and abroad. The question now is whether Biden can bring his administration, the country, and America’s allies along to embed this doctrine in U.S. foreign policy.

 

8. Senate passes bill to compensate ‘Havana Syndrome’ victims who suffered brain injuries

americanmilitarynews.com · by Alex Daugherty ·  June 10, 2021

Some good news. At least Congress is acting in a relatively quick manner, unlike how veterans suffered when faced with unknown maladies (e.g., Gulf War Syndrome, Agent Orange, burn pits, etc). 

 

9. Alarm Over China Spying, Hacking

spytalk.co · by Jeff Stein

 

10. US Army developing world's most powerful laser weapon for a 'future battlefield'

americanmilitarynews.com · by Liz George · June 10, 2021

Excerpts: ““Twenty-three months ago, this was just an idea,” Army Vice Chief of Staff, Gen. Joseph Martin, told Stars and Stripes. “It’s very promising. It’s very powerful. There are many things we’ve got to do in terms of testing, and it’s about to go through a shootout to see how it does.”

The laser can detect and destroy enemy drones within five miles, the report stated.

“We’ve got a target acquisition system that can sense and lock-on and then strike a moving mortar round, a moving cruise missile, an unmanned aerial system, and other aircraft… It will penetrate and disrupt that particular munition or platform’s ability to accomplish its mission,” Martin said. “That’s an incredible power to have. That is the kind of capability we have to have, and it demonstrates our ability to respond to the world around us with technology.”

 

11. China’s Uyghurs living in a ‘dystopian hellscape’, says Amnesty report

The Guardian · by Sarah Johnson · June 10, 2021

The 160 page Amnesty International Report can be downloaded here.

Excerpts:Amnesty is calling for all camps housing Muslim and ethnic minorities across Xinjiang province to be closed and for the UN to investigate and bring those suspected of crimes under international law to account.

China has consistently denied all accusations of wrongdoing in Xinjiang and said the camps were designed to offer Chinese language lessons and job support, as well as to combat religious extremism.

It runs a campaign to discredit accusers, deny allegations and findings, and promote Xinjiang as a “wonderful land”. It refuses journalists and human rights groups free access to the area and dismisses investigative findings as lies.

The report adds mounting pressure on Chinese authorities and comes after British MPs passed a motion in April that declared China is committing genocide against the Uyghur people and other minorities in Xinjiang.

 

12. Charting a Way Ahead in the High North: What We Learned from the Polar Special Operations Essay Contest

mwi.usma.edu · by Zachary Griffiths · June 11, 2021

I have to commend 10th SFG for participating in this effort. I expect this from Modern War Institute but I am pleased to see an organization like 10th SFG engaged in the intellectual effort to prepare for the future and in this case in the Arctic. There is a huge pool of critical thinkers and intellectual giants in our operational units (SF, SOF, and conventional units) and their ability to contribute to the debates should not be overlooked and in fact should be encouraged. I hope to see more of this. And kudos to Modern War Institute for partnering and providing the forum.

 

13. What Biden and Johnson really want from the new Atlantic Charter

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · June 10, 2021

Conclusion: So, yes, the new charter might appear to be a simple reassertion of deep historical bonds. Beyond its paper text, however, both Johnson and Biden have their own interests in mind.

 

14. A Most Adaptable Party (Chinese Communist)

The New York Review of Books · by Ian Johnson

Four books reviewed.

 

15. Out of Sight Should Not Mean Out of Reach: Deterrence and the Proliferation of Hard and Deeply Buried Targets

realcleardefense.com · by Michaela Dodge

Conclusion: When the United States stopped developing and testing new nuclear weapons in the early 1990s, the world was a different place than it is today. Serious Great Power nuclear threats and conflicts of interest have reappeared in international relations. The U.S. nuclear arsenal must evolve to provide capabilities suited to best deter adversaries, including nuclear-armed states that have developed and deployed their nuclear weapon capabilities after the end of the Cold War and that protect what they value in hard and deeply buried bunkers. Congress should ensure that the United States has the HDBT capabilities now needed for deterrence.

 

16. Austin, Milley defend weapons cuts in Biden’s defense budget

Defense News · by Joe Gould · June 10, 2021

Excerpts:In the face of the criticism, Austin acknowledged at the hearing that the $5.1 billion PDI request had missed the mark. His staff is working with the committee to “clarify and adjust any perceived misalignments,” he said.

“A great deal of the department’s budget is invested in capabilities and activities that concentrate on deterring China,” he said, “and I’m committed to making sure that we work with the committee to get it right and answer the needs of the [INDOPACOM] commander.”

 

17. 'Hack The Army' Uncovers 238 Cyber Vulnerabilities

breakingdefense.com · by Brad D. Williams · June 11, 2021

 

-----------------

 

"The line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being."

- Solzhenitsyn

 

And he reiterated his disdain for the hearts and minds approach, as exemplified in the village resettlement programs. “I do not believe the Americans can bring pacification to Vietnam,” Dayan wrote in his last dispatch from the war zone. “The Americanization of the war can, from the military point of view, succeed, but the Americanization of the peace, of daily life, can only serve the Viet Cong with terrorist objectives and propagandist arguments against ‘American hegemony in Vietnam.’”

Or as Dayan put it in his book, Vietnam Diary, which was published in Israel in 1977, “the Americans are winning everything—except the war.”

 

“… insurgency and counterinsurgency… have enjoyed a level of military, academic, and journalistic notice unseen since the mid-1960s. Scholars and practitioners have recently reexamined 19th- and 20th-century counterinsurgency campaigns waged by the United States and the European colonial powers, much as their predecessors during the Kennedy administration mined the past relentlessly in the hope of uncovering the secrets of revolutionary guerrilla warfare. The professional military literature is awash with articles on how the armed services should prepare for what the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) refers to as “irregular warfare,” and scholars, after a long hiatus, have sought to deepen our understanding of the roles that insurgency, terrorism, and related forms of political violence play in the international security environment.”

- William Rosenau, “Subversion and Terrorism: Understanding and Countering the Threat”

06/11/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Fri, 06/11/2021 - 3:04pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Kim Jong-un Calls K-Pop a ‘Vicious Cancer’ in the New Culture War

2. Kim Jong-un's Weight Loss Prompts Health Speculation

3.  Inside Room 39, The Shadowy North Korean Cabal That Allows The Country's Leaders To Live In Luxury

4. North Korea Diverts Electricity From Provinces To Keep Pyongyang Powered

5. Report: FBI warned of 'credible North Korea threat' to Christopher Ahn

6. Kim Jong Un appears to have lost some weight — and that could have geopolitical consequences

7. South Korea Opposition Picks Harvard Graduate to Lead Push to Power

8. Lee Jun-seok wins surprise victory to head main opposition as youngest-ever leader

9. N. Korea stays mum on key party meeting set to be held early this month

10. Behold, North Korea has Asia’s hottest currency

11. N. Korean missiles pose increasing threat to U.S., allies: Secretary Austin

12. Kim Jong Un recasts party rulebook to forge own identity

13. Gov't refrains from commenting on Kim Jong-un's apparent weight loss

14. Recent inter-Korean 'significant communication' leads to rampant speculation

15. US will lead with diplomacy to mitigate NK behavior: US defense chief

16. Koreans begin to get Janssen vaccine amid rising hope of normal life

17. How North Korea is doing propaganda with universities in Berlin

18. McDonald’s Hit by Data Breach

 

1. Kim Jong-un Calls K-Pop a ‘Vicious Cancer’ in the New Culture War

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · June 10, 2021

Yes, we continue to read these stories. But they are useful for trying to understand the nature of the Kim family regime.

And I think this excerpt captures an important aspect of that nature:

But it may be too late to patch the cracks left behind during the 1990s. Mr. Jung, 58, remembers watching “Jealousy,” a K-drama about young love, when he was still in North Korea and feeling a culture shock. “On North Korean TV, it was all about the party and the leader,” he said. “You never saw such a natural display of human emotions like a man and woman kissing.”

 

2. Kim Jong-un's Weight Loss Prompts Health Speculation

english.chosun.com · June 10, 2021

We are going to be speculating about this for some time to come. It will be interesting to see how he looks after his next prolonged absence. (I expect he will be out of sight for another more or so). Perhaps he has a nice spa and personal trainer.

 

3. Inside Room 39, The Shadowy North Korean Cabal That Allows The Country's Leaders To Live In Luxury

allthatsinteresting.com · by Morgan Dunn · June 10, 2021

Room, Office, Department, Bureau.

Influencing, dealing with, countering, and exploiting this organization must be a priority line of effort in our strategy.

 

4. North Korea Diverts Electricity From Provinces To Keep Pyongyang Powered

eurasiareview.com · by Yong Gun Shin and Jeong Yon Park  · June 10, 2021

Just another indicator of the nature of the Kim family regime and its corrupt and incompetent methods for running the country. It also should provide us with some optimism and we must respect the Korean people living in the north for their resilience and ability to adapt and overcome the hardships in order to survive.

Excerpts: “The residents of Chunggang sacrificed much to build the power plant, according to the resident.

“It took 20 years of labor. We carried cement on our backs and blocked off the streams, but the plant only worked for the first few years before it stopped generating power,” the resident said.

“At the time the power plant was completed, they lifted restrictions on electricity use and every household in the town of Chunggang received a gift of an electric rice cooker from the Highest Dignity,” said the resident, using an honorific to refer to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The opening of the power plant and the gifts were touted as an example of Kim’s benevolence and love for the people, according to the resident.

“But it was the start of our suffering. It was already bad that corrupt officials submitted a false report to exaggerate their own achievements, but it was worse that the guy at the top is so ignorant of how we at the bottom are living, and he is only concerned about taking credit for everything,” said the resident.

As electricity is often unavailable in the people’s homes, the people have begun finding creative ways to access reliable power.

I will never forget talking to a retired South Korean Admiral who said there are two miracles in Korea, one on the Han and one on the Taedong.

Differences Between north and South

Survive and Thrive

  • -Two Miracles in Korea
  • - Miracle on the Han – development of Korea
  • - Only nation to go from major aid recipient to a major donor nation
  • - Grew out of the ashes of the Korean Civil War – political, economic, cultural development- Great Middle Power – 8-11th largest economy in the world
  • - Miracle on the Taedong
  • - After 7 decades the Korean people in the north continue to survive despite living in conditions of the worst human rights atrocities and crimes against humanity since WWII.
  • - Commonality among Korean people in the north and South
  • - When faced with hardship they will survive
  • - Neither north nor South had a history of democracy or free market economy
  • - When given an opportunity they will thrive – note the nearly 500 markets thriving in the north

This bodes well for eventual unification.

5. Report: FBI warned of 'credible North Korea threat' to Christopher Ahn

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · June 10, 2021

I do think Christopher Ahn and Adrian Hong are both at risk of violent retaliation from north Korea. 

The regime has proven that its security services have the ability to conduct covert operations overseas such as the assassination of Kim Jong-nam in Malaysia. 

The regime is likely upset for three reasons. The group Free Jeoson is considered a threat to the regime. Second Ahn and Hong were involved in protecting Kim Jong-nam’s family. And lastly the Madrid incident is an embarrassment to the regime. 

Anyone who does not believe that Ahn is at risk does not understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. 

 

Professor Lee​ from the Fletcher School tweeted below. Perhaps the Judge will make the right ruling.

Sung-Yoon Lee

@SungYoonLee1

Guess who said the following at the Christopher Ahn extradition hearing, LA District Court, May 25, 2021: "[B]ack in the day we prosecuted people for being members of underground railroads and then, you know, a hundred years later we were giving them medals." #FreeJoseon

 

6. Kim Jong Un appears to have lost some weight — and that could have geopolitical consequences

The Washington Post · by Michael E. Miller · June 10, 2021

Whatever happens on the Korean peninsula will have global implications: whether war, instability, or regime collapse. Unfortunately, KJU is the center of gravity for all bad things that can happen.

 

7. South Korea Opposition Picks Harvard Graduate to Lead Push to Power

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · June 11, 2021

The rising star in the South.

 

8. Lee Jun-seok wins surprise victory to head main opposition as youngest-ever leader

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · June 11, 2021

 

9. N. Korea stays mum on key party meeting set to be held early this month

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 11, 2021

Keeping us guessing.

 

10. Behold, North Korea has Asia’s hottest currency

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · June 11, 2021

Interesting.

 

11. N. Korean missiles pose increasing threat to U.S., allies: Secretary Austin

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 11, 2021

The regime's great force multiplied in war and in support of blackmail diplomacy and political warfare.

 

12. Kim Jong Un recasts party rulebook to forge own identity

asia.nikkei.com · June 10, 2021

I do not think we should overreact to the reports on party rule changes.

 

13. Gov't refrains from commenting on Kim Jong-un's apparent weight loss

The Korea Times · by Yoon Ja-young · June 11, 2021

I am sure there are some who fear upsetting KJU.

 

14. Recent inter-Korean 'significant communication' leads to rampant speculation

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · June 11, 2021

I am sure the discussions are being shared among allies. It would be interesting to get an assessment of these communications but of course they will be classified.

 

15. US will lead with diplomacy to mitigate NK behavior: US defense chief

koreaherald.com · by Kim So-hyun · June 11, 2021

And diplomacy must rest on the foundation of a strong ROK/US alliance and the military capability to deter, defend, and defeat.

 

16. Koreans begin to get Janssen vaccine amid rising hope of normal life

en.yna.co.kr · by 유청모 · June 10, 2021

 

17. How North Korea is doing propaganda with universities in Berlin

DW

My response to a journalist regarding this situation:

“Clearly this is north Korean propaganda to try to enhance the reputation of north Korea and the Kim family regime. It should be no surprise to us.

It is also no surprise that the universities that complain have received no answer from their "sister" universities and I doubt they will. They would need approval at the highest levels to remove the partner relationship and they are unlikely to seek such approval for fear of direct retaliation against them from the regime. I think all requests will continue to be ignored.

I think it is important for the foreign universities to inoculate themselves from this by calling attention to the situation and making sure the public, their governments, and the UN know that they are not sister universities. This will expose north Korean propaganda actions and help undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime, and hopefully protect the universities from allegations of scientific exchanges that are prohibited by sanctions.”

 

18. McDonald’s Hit by Data Breach

WSJ · by Heather Haddon

Now this is a real threat - don't threaten McDonald's. :-)

 

---------------

 

"The line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being."

- Solzhenitsyn

 

And he reiterated his disdain for the hearts and minds approach, as exemplified in the village resettlement programs. “I do not believe the Americans can bring pacification to Vietnam,” Dayan wrote in his last dispatch from the war zone. “The Americanization of the war can, from the military point of view, succeed, but the Americanization of the peace, of daily life, can only serve the Viet Cong with terrorist objectives and propagandist arguments against ‘American hegemony in Vietnam.’”

Or as Dayan put it in his book, Vietnam Diary, which was published in Israel in 1977, “the Americans are winning everything—except the war.”

 

“… insurgency and counterinsurgency… have enjoyed a level of military, academic, and journalistic notice unseen since the mid-1960s. Scholars and practitioners have recently reexamined 19th- and 20th-century counterinsurgency campaigns waged by the United States and the European colonial powers, much as their predecessors during the Kennedy administration mined the past relentlessly in the hope of uncovering the secrets of revolutionary guerrilla warfare. The professional military literature is awash with articles on how the armed services should prepare for what the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) refers to as “irregular warfare,” and scholars, after a long hiatus, have sought to deepen our understanding of the roles that insurgency, terrorism, and related forms of political violence play in the international security environment.”

- William Rosenau, “Subversion and Terrorism: Understanding and Countering the Threat”

06/09/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Thu, 06/10/2021 - 11:03am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. U.S. Weighs Possibility of Airstrikes if Afghan Forces Face Crisis

2. Pentagon announces new classified programs to counter China

3. China Is Our No. 1 Priority. Start Acting Like It, Austin Tells Pentagon

4. Hostage advocates concerned by US military pullout from Afghanistan

5. Secretary of Defense Directive on China Task Force Recommendations

6. Pentagon has no idea how the Afghan Air Force will stay in the air

7. The Department of Defense Announces Establishment of Arctic Regional Center

8. Professional military education is getting a China-focused upgrade

9. As mystery over 'Havana Syndrome' lingers, a new concern emerges

10. Who Will Write the Next “Long Telegram?”

11. Opinion | Global health policy shouldn’t be shaped by a country that bombs hospitals

12. Over 47,000 Wild Animals Sold in Wuhan Markets Before Covid Outbreak, Study Shows

13. FDD | Help The Afghan Air Force To Blunt Taliban Attacks

14. Leaving Afghanistan

15. Attack in Afghanistan Kills 10 From Charity That Clears Land Mines

16. From Kashmir to the Land of Ice and Snow: Countering China in Antarctica through Combined Training with India

17. Competing in the Arctic through Indigenous Group Engagement and Special Reconnaissance Activities

18. A Permanent Detachment of SOF in the American High North to Answer Near-Peer Adversaries’ Modernization and Deployments

19. The Capitol Riot and the Pentagon

 

1. U.S. Weighs Possibility of Airstrikes if Afghan Forces Face Crisis

The New York Times · by Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt, and Thomas Gibbons-Neff · June 9, 2021

Excerpts:When pressed on whether he thought the Afghan forces could hold up, General Milley was noncommittal.

“Your question: The Afghan army, do they stay together and remain a cohesive fighting force, or do they fall apart? I think there’s a range of scenarios here, a range of outcomes, a range of possibilities,” he said. “On the one hand, you get some really dramatic, bad possible outcomes. On the other hand, you get a military that stays together and a government that stays together.

“Which one of these options obtains and becomes reality at the end of the day?” he said. “We frankly don’t know yet.”

When asked at a Pentagon news conference last month if Afghan cities were in danger of being overrun by the Taliban after American forces left, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III declined to say whether the United States would provide air support, saying it was a hypothetical situation.

Zalmay Khalilzad, the top U.S. diplomat leading peace efforts with the Taliban, issued last month what seemed to be a definitive statement on the matter.

“We will do what we can during our presence until the forces are withdrawn, to help the Afghan forces, including coming to their defense when they are attacked,” he told the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “But once we are out of Afghanistan, direct military support of Afghan forces such as strikes in support of their forces, that’s not being contemplated at this time.”

But three other American officials said the issue had not been resolved in high-level administration meetings on Afghanistan.

 

2. Pentagon announces new classified programs to counter China

The Hill · by Ellen Mitchell · June 9, 2021

Excerpts: “This directive from the secretary is ultimately about getting the department's house in order and ensuring that the department lives up to the stated prioritization of China as the No. 1 pacing challenge,” one official said.

But it was unclear how the initiatives — the result of recommendations made by a 23-member Defense Department task force President Biden set up in February — would be different from those already in place as several of the new efforts will be classified.

The United States for the last several years has made countering China a top priority of its national security policy, and has clashed with Beijing over what Washington views as violations of international rules and norms.

 

3. China Is Our No. 1 Priority. Start Acting Like It, Austin Tells Pentagon

Defense One · by Jacqueline Feldscher 

Excerpts:In his first five months in office, Biden has generally continued Donald Trump’s China policies. Officials have laid out plans to confront China when necessary, compete where possible, and cooperate when both nations have a common interest. In April, for example, Chinese President Xi Jinping participated in Biden’s climate summit.  

Trying to convince European allies to take a harsher stance on China, including some nations who are major trade partners with Beijing, is also a top priority on Biden’s first international trip as president this week, just as it was for Trump officials. 

Austin’s new directive comes shortly after the Biden administration issued other orders focused on China outside of the Defense Department. On Wednesday, the president signed an order revoking Trump’s ban on specific Chinese-owned apps, including TikTok, instead ordering the Commerce Department to more broadly investigate foreign-owned apps and the risks they could pose to Americans’ data. Last week, the president signed an order banning American investment in Chinese surveillance companies. 

 

4. Hostage advocates concerned by US military pullout from Afghanistan

militarytimes.com · by Eric Tucker · June 9, 2021

Plans to address this potential threat??? Anticipate the threat.

 

5. Secretary of Defense Directive on China Task Force Recommendations

defense.gov

Excerpt: “Members of the Task Force were detailed from across the Department of Defense, including representatives from all the Services, several Combatant Commands, the Joint Staff, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the Intelligence Community.During its tenure, the Task Force conducted hundreds of interviews and reviewed thousands of pages of policies, analysis, and intelligence.

In April, Task Force leaders delivered their initial assessment to Secretary Austin, as well as to DoD civilian and military leadership, including at the spring Senior Leaders Conference.Having completed its work, the Task Force will now stand down. The initiatives put forth in the Secretary’s directive will be executed through -- and by -- normal Departmental structures and organizational elements, supplemented by new processes where necessary.

 

“I want to thank everyone on the Task Force for their hard work and the skill they lent to what was a sprint-like effort,” said Austin. “I especially want to note the leadership of Dr. Ely Ratner, who superbly organized and managed this body of work. Now, it is up to the Department to get to work.”

 

6. Pentagon has no idea how the Afghan Air Force will stay in the air

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · June 9, 2021

Excerpts: “Airpower is the one major advantage that the Afghan security forces have over the Taliban, Bradley Bowman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank told NBC News.

“If we don’t help them maintain those aircraft, then the Afghan security forces will be deprived of that advantage, and that could have a decisive impact on the battlefield and ultimately on the state of the Afghan government,” Bowman told NBC.

Jack McCain, a former advisor to the Afghan Air Force and son of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), said that the Taliban knows how important airpower is to the Afghan security forces so they assassinate Afghan pilots and try to shoot down Afghan helicopters, especially the Black Hawks provided by the U.S. government.

“The pilots I worked with are brave beyond measure,” McCain said. “We often had occasions where those pilots would remain in a landing zone, under fire, so wounded could be loaded. They are asked to fly to the toughest places in Afghanistan, on a regular basis, and do so day in and day out. I’ve never seen the like.”

 

7. The Department of Defense Announces Establishment of Arctic Regional Center

defense.gov  · June 9, 2021

What about the Functional Center for Security Studies in Irregular Warfare? The current NDAA tasked DOD to establish both an Arctic Center and an Irregular Warfare Center. The sections for the Arctic and Irregular Warfare centers from the NDAA are excerpted below.

Perhaps this is another indicator of the low priority we place on irregular warfare.  

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-116hr6395enr/html/BILLS-116hr6395enr.htm

SEC. 1089. TED STEVENS CENTER FOR ARCTIC SECURITY STUDIES.

  (a) Plan Required.--

    (1) In general.--Not later than 90 days after the date of the

  enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Defense, in coordination

  with the Secretary of State, shall submit to the congressional

  defense committees a plan to establish a Department of Defense

  Regional Center for Security Studies for the Arctic.

    (2) Elements.--The plan required by paragraph (1) shall include

  the following:

      (A) A description of the benefits of establishing such a

    center, including the manner in which the establishment of such

    a center would benefit United States and Department of Defense

    interests in the Arctic region.

      (B) A description of the mission and purpose of such a

    center, including--

        (i) enhancing understanding of the dynamics and

      national security implications of an emerging Arctic

      region, including increased access for transit and

      maneuverability; and

        (ii) other specific policy guidance from the Office of

      the Secretary of Defense.

      (C) An analysis of suitable reporting relationships with

    the applicable combatant commands.

      (D) An assessment of suitable locations, which shall

    include an enumeration and valuation of criteria, which may

    include--

        (i) the proximity of a location to other academic

      institutions that study security implications with respect

      to the Arctic region;

        (ii) the proximity of a location to the designated lead

      for Arctic affairs of the United States Northern Command;

      and

        (iii) the proximity of a location to a central hub of

      assigned Arctic-focused Armed Forces so as to suitably

      advance relevant professional development of skills unique

      to the Arctic region.

      (E) A description of the establishment and operational

    costs of such a center, including for--

        (i) military construction for required facilities;

        (ii) facility renovation;

        (iii) personnel costs for faculty and staff; and

        (iv) other costs the Secretary considers appropriate.

      (F) An evaluation of the existing infrastructure,

    resources, and personnel available at military installations

    and at universities and other academic institutions that could

    reduce the costs described in accordance with subparagraph (E).

      (G) An examination of partnership opportunities with United

    States allies and partners for potential collaboration and

    burden sharing.

      (H) A description of potential courses and programs that

    such a center could carry out, including--

        (i) core, specialized, and advanced courses;

        (ii) potential planning workshops;

        (iii) seminars;

        (iv) confidence-building initiatives; and

        (v) academic research.

      (I) A description of any modification to title 10, United

    States Code, necessary for the effective operation of such a

    center.

    (3) Form.--The plan required by paragraph (1) shall be

  submitted in unclassified form, but may include a classified annex.

  (b) Establishment.--

    (1) In general.--Not earlier than 30 days after the submittal

  of the plan required by subsection (a), and subject to the

  availability of appropriations, the Secretary of Defense may

  establish and administer a Department of Defense Regional Center

  for Security Studies for the Arctic, to be known as the ``Ted

  Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies'', for the purpose

  described in section 342(a) of title 10, United States Code.

    (2) Location.--Subject to a determination by the Secretary to

  establish the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies under

  this section, the Center shall be established at a location

  determined suitable pursuant to subsection (a)(2)(D).

 

SEC. 1299L. FUNCTIONAL CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES IN IRREGULAR

WARFARE.

  (a) Report Required.--

    (1) In general.--Not later than 90 days after the date of the

  enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Defense, in consultation

  with the Secretary of State, shall submit to the congressional

  defense committees a report that assesses the merits and

  feasibility of establishing and administering a Department of

  Defense Functional Center for Security Studies in Irregular

  Warfare.

    (2) Elements.--The report required by paragraph (1) shall

  include the following:

      (A) A description of the benefits to the United States, and

    the allies and partners of the United States, of establishing

    such a functional center, including the manner in which the

    establishment of such a functional center would enhance and

    sustain focus on, and advance knowledge and understanding of,

    matters of irregular warfare, including cybersecurity, nonstate

    actors, information operations, counterterrorism, stability

    operations, and the hybridization of such matters.

      (B) A detailed description of the mission and purpose of

    such a functional center, including applicable policy guidance

    from the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

      (C) An analysis of appropriate reporting and liaison

    relationships between such a functional center and--

        (i) the geographic and functional combatant commands;

        (ii) other Department of Defense stakeholders; and

        (iii) other government and nongovernment entities and

      organizations.

      (D) An enumeration and valuation of criteria applicable to

    the determination of a suitable location for such a functional

    center.

      (E) A description of the establishment and operational

    costs of such a functional center, including for--

        (i) military construction for required facilities;

        (ii) facility renovation;

        (iii) personnel costs for faculty and staff; and

        (iv) other costs the Secretary of Defense considers

      appropriate.

      (F) An evaluation of the existing infrastructure,

    resources, and personnel available at military installations,

    existing regional centers, interagency facilities, and

    universities and other academic and research institutions that

    could reduce the costs described in subparagraph (E).

      (G) An examination of partnership opportunities with United

    States allies and partners for potential collaboration and

    burden sharing.

      (H) A description of potential courses and programs that

    such a functional center could carry out, including--

        (i) core, specialized, and advanced courses;

        (ii) planning workshops and structured after-action

      reviews or debriefs;

        (iii) seminars;

        (iv) initiatives on executive development, relationship

      building, partnership outreach, and any other matter the

      Secretary of Defense considers appropriate; and

        (v) focused academic research and studies in support of

      Department priorities.

      (I) A description of any modification to title 10, United

    States Code, or any other provision of law, necessary for the

    effective establishment and administration of such a functional

    center.

    (3) Form.--The report required by paragraph (1) shall be

  submitted in unclassified form, but may include a classified annex.

  (b) Establishment.--

    (1) In general.--Not earlier than 30 days after the submittal

  of the report required by subsection (a), and subject to the

  availability of appropriated funds, the Secretary of Defense may

  establish and administer a Department of Defense Functional Center

  for Security Studies in Irregular Warfare.

    (2) Treatment as a regional center for security studies.--A

  Department of Defense Functional Center for Security Studies in

  Irregular Warfare established under paragraph (1) shall be operated

  and administered in the same manner as the Department of Defense

  Regional Centers for Security Studies under section 342 of title

  10, United States Code, and in accordance with such regulations as

  the Secretary of Defense may prescribe.

    (3) Limitation.--No other institution or element of the

  Department may be designated as a Department of Defense functional

  center, except by an Act of Congress.

    (4) Location.--The location of a Department of Defense

  Functional Center for Security Studies in Irregular Warfare

  established under paragraph (1) shall be selected based on an

  objective, criteria-driven administrative or competitive award

  process.

 

8. Professional military education is getting a China-focused upgrade

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · June 9, 2021

Focus education on how to think versus what to think.

While I was on the faculty at the National War College more than 10 years ago we have a major portion of the curriculum focused on China for the entire class. Each seminar had to conduct an assessment of the potential "Chinese futures" and the impacts of those futures and then brief back their assessments to noted China experts from outside the college. I understand this is still part of the curriculum. 

But I also worry about chasing the "shiny thing." Clearly China is important but there are many other strategic priorities as well. This excerpt shows that we need to maintain global expertise. What I hope we are doing is still maintaining a regional focus but adapting the curriculum to help regional experts in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Eruope to understand how China is competing in those regions. China is just not tied to its geographic location in the INDOPACIFIC. 

Excerpt: Another would be to take a look at force posture as it pertains to China. While that country’s influence extends to Africa, South America and beyond, Pentagon leaders in recent years have stressed the need to take another look at how U.S. troops are stacked in the Indo-Pacific region.

I hope I am not misleading this excerpt:​ The days of "fixed bases in fixed places" could be coming to an end. Rather than a heavy east Asia footprints, like the current forward-deployments to South Korea and Japan, smaller rotations to countries farther south and west might be in order.

“I think that’s, one, too expensive. Two, I think that you rely, then, on all of the agreements that you have to have to do that, and time,” an Indo-Pacific Command official told reporters in September, speaking of the current force posture. “I think we have the opportunity to look across the whole South Pacific,” as a means staying close to China, “and fixed bases aren’t necessarily it.”

The official briefing Wednesday acknowledged the need for an examination, but again, offered no details.“We did take a close look at our force posture in the Indo-Pacific and have delivered recommendations in that regard,” the official said. “Again, I’m not going to get into specifics about the classified directive or the assessment, but absolutely, we took a careful look at that question as well as regional security issues in the Indo-Pacific.”

Many, but not all, of the task force’s recommendations are classified, though the official who briefed the media offered few details on the unclassified pieces.

​I think what this means is we will not be establishing fixed bases and fixed places in the South Pacific. ​But it does not necessarily mean we are giving up our fixed bases in Japan and Korea. That would be a catastrophic strategic mistake.

 

9. As mystery over 'Havana Syndrome' lingers, a new concern emerges

NBC News · by Courtney Kube and Carol E. Lee · June 9, 2021

An intelligence collection technique adapted to do harm?

Excerpts: “But one leading theory is that the victims suffered the effects of intense electromagnetic energy waves from devices intended to extract information from cellphones and other personal devices, the officials said.

Though inflicting harm may not have been the original intent, U.S. officials increasingly believe that whoever may be responsible is now well aware that the devices can cause debilitating symptoms and will seek to use them to target and physically harm individuals, a weapon that is difficult to trace.

 

10. Who Will Write the Next “Long Telegram?”

19fortyfive.com · by Robert Wilkie · June 9, 2021

I think there have been some attempts. An anonymous author (probably Matt Pottinger) just wrote one on China that has been touted as a new "longer telegram." THE LONGER TELEGRAM: Toward a new American China strategy 

 

11. Opinion | Global health policy shouldn’t be shaped by a country that bombs hospitals

The Washington Post · by David Adesnik · June 9, 2021

This is the problem with international organizations. The administration must take action.

Excerpts:Along with other U.N. agencies, the WHO effectively resigned itself to such arrangements. An internal U.N. assessment concluded, “the criticism of these abuses has seemed muted, presumably in a judgment about access over advocacy.” The prospects for reform depend on the appointment of a strong regional director who has the unequivocal backing of the director general. Now, with a seat on the Executive Board, Syria can defend the status quo.

“Re-engaging the WHO also means holding it to the highest standards,” the White House asserted in February. The re-engagement has taken place. The commitment to accountability remains uncertain.

 

12. Over 47,000 Wild Animals Sold in Wuhan Markets Before Covid Outbreak, Study Shows

WSJ · by Jeremy Page, Drew Hinshaw and Betsy McKay

Excerpts: “Almost all animals were sold alive, caged, stacked and in poor condition,” the paper said. “Most stores offered butchering services, done on site, with considerable implications for food hygiene and animal welfare.”

Such is the extent of the findings that some scientists, including the head of a World Health Organization-led team investigating Covid-19’s origins, questioned why the data—which was gathered between May 2017 and November 2019—hadn’t been shared earlier.

Two of the authors told The Wall Street Journal they had been unable to share their findings with the WHO-led team because the paper had been undergoing peer review for several months. One said it had been rejected by several other journals, suggesting that it was seen as a “hot potato.”

The WHO-led team visited Wuhan early this year and inspected places including the Huanan food market, around which many of the earliest Covid-19 cases were found in December 2019, prompting Chinese authorities to announce that the likely source was wild meat sold there.

 

13. FDD | Help The Afghan Air Force To Blunt Taliban Attacks

fdd.org · by Bradley Bowman, Ryan Brobst, and Jared Thompson · June 9, 2021

Excerpt: “The U.S. military may be focused on withdrawing its forces safely from Afghanistan. But a failure to provide contract support after the American withdrawal could ground much of the Afghan Air Force—thus eroding or effectively eliminating Kabul’s greatest comparative military advantage over the Taliban. To secure America’s interests in the region, the United States should do everything it can to support the AAF. That may be one of the best hopes of preventing a Taliban takeover.

 

14. Leaving Afghanistan

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

 

15. Attack in Afghanistan Kills 10 From Charity That Clears Land Mines

The New York Times · by Najim Rahim and Mike Ives · June 9, 2021

Such a tragedy. Is this a sign of things to come?

 

16. From Kashmir to the Land of Ice and Snow: Countering China in Antarctica through Combined Training with India

mwi.usma.edu · by Christopher D. Booth · June 9, 2021

Conclusion: “China’s military is the pacing threat for the Pentagon. Now, the PRC seems to be pursuing a strategy to alter the Antarctic Treaty framework and establish a dominant role in Antarctica. Responsible for preparing the battlefield and conducting the most challenging missions, special operations forces units would benefit from training in the most realistic conditions alongside the hardened glacier commandos of the Indian Army. Increasing the capabilities of this key regional ally and engaging in multilateral signaling of US resolve in South Asia would be an added benefit.”

 

17. Competing in the Arctic through Indigenous Group Engagement and Special Reconnaissance Activities

mwi.usma.edu · by Kevin D. Stringer · June 8, 2021

Conclusion: Based upon its selection and missions, the US Army Special Forces are the force of choice given the harsh and austere nature of the Arctic environment. To implement this two-part approach, three organizational adjustments need to be considered. First, the Special Forces would need to geophysically specialize a certain number of detachments for true Arctic duty, not just periodic “winter warfare” or “cold weather” operations. Although contrary to the all-purpose unit preferences of US Special Operations Command, the Arctic environment and its human terrain demand formation specificity and continuity. Second, at 1st Special Forces Command and Special Forces group level, leadership must allocate a sufficient annual percentage of engagements to polar operations to ensure regular and repetitive presence. Finally, unlike in other world regions, the Special Forces must apprentice as a learning organization with allied special operations forces and indigenous Arctic partners to become a true polar force that can operate in the similar yet different ecosystems of the North American, European, and Russo-Asian Arctic. Otherwise, US Army Special Forces risk a dilettante approach to this strategic region.

 

18.  A Permanent Detachment of SOF in the American High North to Answer Near-Peer Adversaries’ Modernization and Deployments

mwi.usma.edu · by Zachary Lavengood · June 10, 2021

Conclusion: Establishing a permanent US special operations presence in the American Arctic is a critical first step in meeting near-peer adversaries on equal footing in this important region. Such a headquarters will facilitate rotational deployments of special operations forces necessary to build Arctic competency, while also developing infrastructure crucial for training and operations in the high north. The decades of experience special operations forces have gained in other global theaters is not lost when applied in the context of the high north. However, this experience must be acclimated to Arctic realities in order to achieve its goals of protecting US assets and interests in the region.

 

19.  The Capitol Riot and the Pentagon

WSJ · by The Editorial Board

Very interesting editorial from the Wall Street Journal editorial board. There is a lot to parse in this short piece. This could be useful in PME institutions to discuss military support to civil authorities and civil-military relations.

Conclusion: By rejecting the election outcome and making unconstitutional demands, Donald Trump bears moral responsibility for the disgrace of Jan. 6. Yet the wider political frenzy of 2020 seems to have cowed the Pentagon from responding effectively to violence when it occurred. Better if the brass had focused on their essential job of security, and ignored the politics and the press.

 

 

---------------

 

"One cannot make command decisions simply by assessing the tactical situation and going ahead with whatever course of action will do the most harm to the enemy with a minimum of death and damage to your own men and materiel. Modern warfare has become very complex, especially during the last century. Wars are won not by a simple series of battles won, but by a complex interrelationship among military victory, economic pressures, logistic maneuvering, access to the enemy's information, political postures - dozens, literally dozens of factors."

-Joe Haldeman

 

"Media is an assemblage of tools with which to expand an audience's conception of what "the world" is to such and extent that their own lives and capabilities seem utterly insignificant; a means of psychological warfare by which people are overloaded with information and desensitized to their own and others' suffering; the sum of all means by which human beings reduce the infinite complexity of reality to a dead-end maze of abstractions." 

- CrimethInc.

 

“In the future, we should anticipate seeing more hybrid wars where conventional warfare, irregular warfare, asymmetric warfare, and information warfare all blend together, creating a very complex and challenging situation to the combatants; therefore it will require military forces to posses hybrid capabilities, which might help deal with hybrid threats.” 

- Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono

06/09/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Thu, 06/10/2021 - 10:53am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. South Korea Should Reassess Its Push for Inter-Korean Engagement

2. China seen as military threat by 88% of Japanese, 72% of South Koreans

3. North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Three Years After Its Dismantlement

4. Tracking the "unidentified yellow substance" being dried out near the Yongbyon Nuclear Center

5. Japan, South Korea join growing backlash against China’s Confucius Institutes

6. Kim Jong Un Appoints a First Secretary: What does he have in mind?

7. Summit opens new chapter in alliance

8. China courting Korea in competition with US

9. Wang Yi warns Seoul not to take sides in Sino-U.S. rivalry

10. What North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's $15,881 watch says about his weight loss

11. Unification ministry has nothing to say about N.K. leader's health amid speculation over weight loss: official

12. U.S. seeks to make progress with N. Korea through diplomacy: State Dept.

13. N. Korea stresses cooperation with international Red Cross organizations amid global virus pandemic

14. Exclusive: New York City's message to Kim Jong Un honoring Otto Warmbier

 

1. South Korea Should Reassess Its Push for Inter-Korean Engagement

The National Interest · by Mathew Ha · June 9, 2021

The latest from my colleague Mathew Ha.  A critical assessment of the Moon administration's engagement policy.

 

2. China seen as military threat by 88% of Japanese, 72% of South Koreans

Taiwan News · by Micah McCartney,

Interesting data.

The buried lede (Korea-Japan relations): “However, the poll also found that approximately the same number of Japanese and South Koreans view each others' presidents with as much suspicion as they do Chairman Xi. In addition, over 80 percent on either side believe their country's relationship with the other is either "rather bad" or very "bad."

Poll respondents were also asked about the historical issues driving the diplomatic schism between the two nations, including Korean "comfort women" being forced into prostitution by the Empire of Japan during World War II. A majority of Japanese (59 percent) and Koreans (79 percent) do not think it's necessary to "go further on the issue of historical awareness" to mend the relationship and expressed pessimism that it would improve in the future, with 73 percent of Japanese and 58 percent of Koreans forecasting "no change."

The poll was conducted by landline and used the random digit dialing (RDD) survey method to reach landline and mobile phones. It collected responses from 1,063 Japanese over the age of 18 from May 21-23 and 1,000 South Korean adults on May 21 and 22.

 

3. North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Three Years After Its Dismantlement

38north.org · by Jack Liu · June 9, 2021

Bottom-line: “In the past six months, imagery indicates no major new activity, although there is evidence that personnel remain on-site.

...

Until an independent inspection team with the proper equipment and expertise is allowed on-site to assess the extent of damage to the test tunnels, the potential for reactivating the site remains if Pyongyang decides to resume nuclear weapons testing.

 

4. Tracking the "unidentified yellow substance" being dried out near the Yongbyon Nuclear Center

dailynk.com · by Bruce Songhak Chung  · June 10, 2021

Excerpt: “Taking all of this into consideration, I conclude that the grain harvested and left out to dry in Yongbyon in spring is wheat or barley, not corn. However, it is also true that when seen in a color satellite photograph, it is difficult to differentiate barley from corn due to their similar light yellow or light orange color.

Putting all this information together, I sent an email to 38 North. I presented my opinion that the unidentified yellow substance the website had discovered at Yongbyon was drying barley in spring and drying corn in autumn. I also sent some material I found on the Internet.

 

5. Japan, South Korea join growing backlash against China’s Confucius Institutes

SCMP · b yPark Chan-kyong and Julian Ryall · June 10, 2021

 

6. Kim Jong Un Appoints a First Secretary: What does he have in mind?

onekoreanetwork.com · by Hyun-Seung Lee · June 9, 2021

Very useful analysis from our friend Hyun-Seung Lee

In conclusion, North Korea is a country that has operated with one ideology under a one-man leadership system.

A strong ideology-based, one-man leadership system is at the core of how the Kim regime maintains its power. In a long-term dictatorship like North Korea, dictators have never shared power on their own and will probably never do so.

 

7. Summit opens new chapter in alliance

The Korea Times  · by Park Jin · June 10, 2021

A positive assessment of the summit.

Key points: “ball is in Kim Jong-un's court but we have to be prepared to manage the Korean problem if he remains recalcitrant. And we must take a human rights upfront approach.

So, the stage is set for Washington's exploratory diplomacy with Pyongyang. The ball is now in North Korea's court. The Biden team might take a cautious "bottom-up" approach based on a concrete and reciprocal roadmap. Whether this renewed approach by Washington will produce any "tangible progress" toward denuclearization depends on the critical decision by the Kim Jong-un regime. The North Korean nuclear issue remains unresolved, despite policy alternating between confrontation and negotiation. If it cannot be resolved in the near term, it should be coherently managed in the longer term based on deterrence, sanctions, incentives and persuasion.

Finally, the two leaders agreed to improve the human rights situation in North Korea in tandem with necessary humanitarian aid. Human rights are essential moral issues and universal values that should not be neglected for the sake of pursuing an inter-Korean detente.

 

8. China courting Korea in competition with US

The Korea Times · June 10, 2021

This is "courting?" According to China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Thursday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone conversation with Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong the previous night, telling Chung that Korea should not become trapped in a "biased" way of thinking, and that Seoul and Beijing needed to maintain a "political consensus."

 

9.  Wang Yi warns Seoul not to take sides in Sino-U.S. rivalry

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim· June 10, 2021

From China's perspective I think not taking sides means taking China's side.

 

10. What North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's $15,881 watch says about his weight loss

Strait Times

I still think he is just wearing a larger watch band.

 

11. Unification ministry has nothing to say about N.K. leader's health amid speculation over weight loss: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 10, 2021

 

12. U.S. seeks to make progress with N. Korea through diplomacy: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 10, 2021

Again my belief is we are giving Kim Jong-un every opportunity to act as a responsible member of the international community and come to the table and negotiate in good faith.

 

13. N. Korea stresses cooperation with international Red Cross organizations amid global virus pandemic

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 10, 2021

 

14.  Exclusive: New York City's message to Kim Jong Un honoring Otto Warmbier

foxnews.com · by Eric Shawn | Fox News

While this seems like a "feel good" action (and it does make us feel good), it is important to do everything we can to call attention to the north Korean human rights abuses.

 

----------------

 

 

"One cannot make command decisions simply by assessing the tactical situation and going ahead with whatever course of action will do the most harm to the enemy with a minimum of death and damage to your own men and materiel. Modern warfare has become very complex, especially during the last century. Wars are won not by a simple series of battles won, but by a complex interrelationship among military victory, economic pressures, logistic maneuvering, access to the enemy's information, political postures - dozens, literally dozens of factors."

-Joe Haldeman

 

"Media is an assemblage of tools with which to expand an audience's conception of what "the world" is to such and extent that their own lives and capabilities seem utterly insignificant; a means of psychological warfare by which people are overloaded with information and desensitized to their own and others' suffering; the sum of all means by which human beings reduce the infinite complexity of reality to a dead-end maze of abstractions." 

- CrimethInc.

 

“In the future, we should anticipate seeing more hybrid wars where conventional warfare, irregular warfare, asymmetric warfare, and information warfare all blend together, creating a very complex and challenging situation to the combatants; therefore it will require military forces to posses hybrid capabilities, which might help deal with hybrid threats.” 

- Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono

06/09/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Wed, 06/09/2021 - 8:57am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. How America Fractured Into Four Parts

2. FDD | China’s Potemkin Peacekeeping

3. Top US general warns of Iran, China and Russia in Middle East

4. W(h)ither R: a marquee failure of leadership in foreign policy

5. For Now, ‘Over the Horizon’ Protection for Afghanistan Will Fly From Existing Hubs, Acting Air Force Secretary Says

6. Fight Digital Authoritarianism by Giving People the Tools to Counter It

7. Global police sting ensnares scores of alleged criminals duped by FBI app

8. FBI built fake phone company in global wiretapping operation of historic proportions

9. The never-ending, ever-frustrating hunt for the ‘Biden doctrine’

10. Ransomware attack hits House members’ web tool to communicate with voters

11. A Just Response to Beijing’s COVID-19 Abuses

12. How an informant and a messaging app led to huge global crime sting

13. Beijing accuses US of 'paranoid delusion' after innovation Bill passed

14. Biden’s Asia Czar Says China Is to Blame for Its Diplomatic Woes

15. Army nixes soldier roles for native Arabic, Pashto and Dari speakers

16. Pacific Commanders Want More Money for Biden’s Asia Pivot

17. New body armor carrier, plates and female-focused designs headed to soldiers

18. How does America intensify disinformation war? - Xinhua

19. Book excerpt: ‘The Other Face of Battle: America’s Forgotten Wars and the Experience of Combat’

20. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has a baller home worth nearly $3 million

 

1.  How America Fractured Into Four Parts

The Atlantic · by George Packer · June 8, 2021

This requires some deep reflection. Ask yourself which of the four parts do you belong to? I think there are some hybrid categories and most of us do not fall neatly into one.

 

2. FDD | China’s Potemkin Peacekeeping

fdd.org · by Bradley Bowman Morgan Lorraine · June 8, 2021

Excerpts: “There has certainly been a genuine need for such oversight of PLA peacekeepers in South Sudan. During fighting in Juba in 2016, Chinese peacekeepers reportedly “abandoned their posts entirely.” Rather than courageously protecting vulnerable civilians seeking refuge, the PLA peacekeepers fled, “leaving weapons and ammunition behind.”

If Washington takes these steps, it can help promote peace and security in Africa and prevent the CCP from advancing authoritarian and mercantilist objectives under the guise of UN peacekeeping.

In an apparently apocryphal tale, 18th-century Russian military leader and statesman Grigory Potemkin created pretentious building facades to conceal from Empress Catherine the Great the shabby and impoverished reality of her subjects.

Today, in Africa, China suggests it supports U.N. peacekeeping to “defend world peace, contribute to global development and safeguard international order.” Observers would be wise to look behind the façade of these Potemkin peacekeeping missions.

 

3. Top US general warns of Iran, China and Russia in Middle East

Jerusalem Post

I often wonder why these senior leaders omit north Korea from the equation. It proliferates weapons, technology, and training to Iran and its proxies (Hezbollah and Houthis) as well as other countries in North Africa. I think sometimes we need to look at all the revisionist and rogue powers and their activities that may or may not be coordinated or mutual supporting (either deliberately or by coincidence) 

 

4. W(h)ither R: a marquee failure of leadership in foreign policy

Mountain Runner  by Matt Armstrong· June 8, 2021

Fascinating, useful, and important analysis from Matt Armstrong who is one of our nation's experts on public diplomacy and all things related to influence (propaganda, psychological warfare, and psychological operations, and public affairs).

Please go to the link to view the graphics.

 

5. For Now, ‘Over the Horizon’ Protection for Afghanistan Will Fly From Existing Hubs, Acting Air Force Secretary Says

defenseone.com · by Tara Copp · June 8, 2021

Excerpts: “Pentagon leaders have been mum on where they will move the approximately 3,500 troops being withdrawn from Afghanistan, and how they will deliver air strikes, air cover, or other assistance to suppress terrorist groups and protect the limited number of U.S. government civilians who will remain in the country.

At a Center for a New American Security event Tuesday, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said that the United States would also provide “over the horizon” support to the Afghan security forces, but that the final shape for all of that support was still being planned.

“We are working through all of that right now,” Hicks said. “We have to take into account regional aspects and allied approaches. We will have, over the course of this summer, proposals to give to the president in terms of what that over-the-horizon capability should be.”

“It’s for counterterrorism. It’s not an over-the-horizon capability to do all things, to operate, as the United States was operating in Afghanistan.”

 

6. Fight Digital Authoritarianism by Giving People the Tools to Counter It

Defense One · by Joshua Baron· June 8, 2021

Excerpt:  "Digital authoritarianism is the use of digital information technology by authoritarian regimes to surveil, repress, and manipulate domestic and foreign populations. Such tools track and censor internet activities, but they can also be used to restrict physical interactions—think of facial recognition and other technologies used to crack down on protests. Most broadly, technologies such as China’s social credit system can serve as a population-scale coercive mechanism. "

Key point: "Defense leaders should not wait for the rest of the government to act. In response to this gap, they should prioritize countering digital authoritarianism by refocusing research and development and posturing to engage in the fight against this threat. They should aim to create new levers to persistently and directly engage its adversaries and strengthen its advantages on the digital battlefield. To this end, they should also begin to establish working relationships with other government and non-government organizations that are working to counter digital authoritarianism. These include the U.S. State Department, U.S. Agency for Global Media (specifically the Open Technology Fund), USAID, National Endowment for Democracy, and digital rights non-governmental organizations. None of these organizations currently performs long-term, much less high-risk, research, so the DOD could help foster the kinds of revolutionary technical capabilities that they are not able to develop or obtain on their own. At the same time, building these ties must proceed with care so that these organizations preserve their independence from the DOD. Finally, defense leaders should also build a new strategy to address this critical shortfall in DOD capability, including bringing efforts that are currently siloed into a larger strategic framework. "

I would argue this is what Dr. Baron is describing is a key component of modern unconventional warfare and support to resistance. (e.g., activities to support an insurgency or resistance movement to coerce, disrupt, or overthrow a government of occupying power).  Dr. Baron is describing the need to provide capabilities to indigenous resistance capabilities with emphasis on coercing or disrupting authoritarian governments (not necessarily overthrowing them - too many people focus on UW as only the overthrow of a government and that is just old thinking - still important when it is necessary to support US interests but in the modern era UW should not be so narrowly applied).

And I would be remiss if I did not acknowledge the application of the two SOF trinities: irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare (and it is UW that is the foundational capability for the other two). The second is the comparative advantage of SOF (but of course not exclusively SOF) influence, governance, and support to indigenous forces and populations. I am not saying that SOF should have a lead role in this effort, but it may have a supporting one. But the organizations outlined above might benefit from some UW type thinking.

 

7. Global police sting ensnares scores of alleged criminals duped by FBI app

The Washington Post · by Rachel Pannett and Michael Birnbaum · June 8, 2021

I supposed we released this information because we intend for it to serve as a deterrent.

 

8. FBI built fake phone company in global wiretapping operation of historic proportions

intelnews.org · by Joseph Fitsanakis · June 8, 2021

Another look at this FBI operation.

 

9. The never-ending, ever-frustrating hunt for the ‘Biden doctrine’

Politico

Excerpts: “It seems fair to ask, then: Why is it necessary to define a president’s foreign policy "doctrine" at all? Isn’t dealing with some 200 countries, not to mention transnational threats like climate change and terrorism, complicated enough to defy easy summarization? Why do pundits try so hard to impose order on the messy reality of governing?

“I don’t know, honestly,” said Michael Singh, a Middle East specialist who served in former President George W. Bush’s National Security Council. “Maybe we’re trying to make sense of the chaotic world around us? Maybe there’s an existential need for this?”

Maybe. Doctrine-hunting amounts to a full-time employment program for the community of foreign policy watchers in and around Washington. Analysts and historians have long sought to divine and distill presidents’ guiding principles of foreign policy into their pithy, memorable essence.

Credit for the doctrine craze usually goes to former President James Monroe, who declared in 1823 that Europe should stop trying to colonize countries in the Western Hemisphere — leaving them more open for U.S. influence and trade. Many years later, former President Harry S. Truman’s doctrine proclaimed that the U.S. would devote resources to fending off communism and other authoritarian forces around the globe.

 

10. Ransomware attack hits House members’ web tool to communicate with voters

washingtontimes.com · by Ryan Lovelace

Excerpts: “The federal government is stepping up its efforts to respond to the increasing pace and fury of ransomware attacks. Justice Department officials said Monday that they recovered $2.3 million of the ransom paid by Colonial Pipeline. The company acknowledged that it paid the $4.4 million ransom. An FBI affidavit filed in federal court Monday revealed the steps that law enforcement took to recover a portion of the ransom payment.

The national security community also has had a role in targeting ransomware attackers since the Biden administration elevated the cybersecurity threat from a criminal challenge to a terrorism matter. A Justice Department memo distributed last week directed U.S. attorneys offices to treat ransomware investigations with the same priority as terrorism investigations.

The White House said President Biden was pursuing an “action plan” to handle ransomware attacks alongside U.S. allies when he attends meetings of the Group of Seven leading industrial countries in the United Kingdom this week.

 

11. A Just Response to Beijing’s COVID-19 Abuses

hudson.org · by David Asher, Miles Yu, David Feith, Matthew Zweig & Thomas DiNanno

Conclusion: There is an opportunity for a bipartisan, bicameral initiative to establish a 21st-century framework for defending the United States and international partners against the prospect of another devastating pandemic. We cannot afford further impunity by Beijing and passivity from Washington as we enter what may be a century of synthetic biological adventurism and potential biowarfare.

 

12. How an informant and a messaging app led to huge global crime sting

Reuters · by Tom Allard

 

13. Beijing accuses US of 'paranoid delusion' after innovation Bill passed

Strait Times

 

14. Biden’s Asia Czar Says China Is to Blame for Its Diplomatic Woes

Bloomberg · by Peter Martin · June 8, 2021

An important question from Dr. Campbell:

Campbell said the Chinese foreign policy establishment understands that the country’s policies, which include militarizing artificial islands and outcroppings in the South China Sea and a more assertive approach to global diplomacy, have helped to cause a global backlash against Beijing.

“But is that getting through to the most inner-circle in the Chinese leadership? I think that’s a question we can’t answer,” Campbell said.

 

15. Army nixes soldier roles for native Arabic, Pashto and Dari speakers

armytimes.com · by Todd South · June 8, 2021

Because we are never going back to the Middle East, Central Asia, or North Africa. (Apologies for the sarcasm). But of course, if we are pulling out we cannot just maintain an organization of translators that will not be gainfully employed. This is the end of the 09L program only. However, we are not eliminating the language training for non-native speakers to develop such personnel as intelligence collectors and Foreign Area Officers and others.

 

16. Pacific Commanders Want More Money for Biden’s Asia Pivot

Foreign Policy · by Jack Detsch · June 8, 2021

Excerpts: “In a statement provided to Foreign Policy on Monday in response to questions about the PDI, Pentagon spokesman Chris Sherwood insisted that the Department of Defense’s ongoing review of the U.S. military’s global footprint would include many of the requests that Davidson, the former Indopacom chief, made to Congress earlier this year.

But the brewing crisis over Taiwan has put renewed urgency on bringing more military might to bear for Biden’s Asia pivot, aides and officials said, as the administration has ramped up unofficial contacts with the island. China has sent fighter jets into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on a daily basis for over a year in an effort to exhaust opposing pilots and aircraft, and the United States is carefully watching Chinese military drills get more coordinated and complex, such as by bringing in more naval and rocket forces.

“This is, at some level, rehearsing tactical strikes in and around Taiwan,” a senior defense official said.

 

17. New body armor carrier, plates and female-focused designs headed to soldiers

armytimes.com · by Todd South · June 8, 2021

It is sad that it has taken this long to develop and implement these changes.

Excerpts:A good fit is about more than comfort. It can mean the difference when firing a weapon accurately, preventing repetitive use injuries and shielding soldiers from shrapnel.

Designers have also reconfigured helmet retention straps in the Integrated Head Protection system to better fit female soldiers whose hairstyles might have previously prevented a good-fitting helmet. That’s because a bad fit could cut down on their peripheral vision.

 

18. How does America intensify disinformation war? - Xinhua

xinhuanet.com

Admit nothing, deny everything. Make counter accusations. This is the Chinese Communist Party making counter accusations.

 

19. Book excerpt: ‘The Other Face of Battle: America’s Forgotten Wars and the Experience of Combat’

militarytimes.com · by Wayne E. Lee, David L. Preston, Anthony E. Carlson, and David Silbey · June 8, 2021

Another book for the "to read" pile.

 

20. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has a baller home worth nearly $3 million

taskandpurpose.com · by Paul Szoldra · June 7, 2021

I am not sure if the author is using the "gimmick" of the focus on the SECDEF's home to call attention to the snake blood drinking and PETA protests or using the snakes and PETA as a gimmick to highlight the SECDEF's home.

 

---------------

 

“Let us immediately establish the point. Our enemies know full well that news is an important weapon in modern warfare and they are unceasingly applying their knowledge as they wages total war. How they do so directly affects every one of us.”

- Matthew Gordon, News is a Weapon

 

“Cyber warfare is as much about psychological strategy as technical prowess.”

- James Scott, Senior Fellow, Institute for Critical Infrastructure Technology

 

A meme (rhymes with dream) is a unit of information (a catchphrase, a concept, a tune, a notion of fashion, philosophy or politics) that leaps from brain to brain. Memes compete with one another for replication, and are passed down through a population much the same way genes pass through a species. Potent memes can change minds, alter behavior, catalyze collective mindshifts and transform cultures. Which is why meme warfare has become the geopolitical battle of our information age. Whoever has the memes has the power.

- Kalle Lasn

 

06/09/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Wed, 06/09/2021 - 8:44am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. N. Korea appears focused on internal affairs: defense minister

2.  From mediator to negotiator (South Korea)

3. Kim Jong-un: apparent weight loss prompts speculation over North Korean leader’s health

4. Kim said to unveil ‘tangible change’ plan for North Korea economy

5. Proposal to shift "general markets" to "specialized markets" finds little support among N. Korean leaders

6. US dollar and Chinese reminbi plummet against North Korean won once again

7. North Korea urges citizens to 'put national interest first' in latest economic push

8. S. Korea continues attempts to call N.K. every day through Panmunjom hotline to no avail: official

9. N.K. paper calls for scientific development conducive to actual growth, production

10. S. Korea open to anything but three-way summit with U.S., Japan not planned: diplomat

11. U.S. lowers travel advisory for S. Korea to lowest Level 1

12. [ANALYSIS] In 6G, U.S. wants Korea as teammate against China

13. Missile Sovereignty: Another Reason for America to Reduce its Footprint in Korea

14. We Condemn Abolishing the National Security Act, which Guarantees Continuous North Korean Espionage Activities Harmful to the Free Republic of Korea

 

1. N. Korea appears focused on internal affairs: defense minister

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · June 9, 2021

I think the Defense Minister is probably correct. It is what the indicators appear to show. However, I would offer two notes of caution.

One if the focus is internal we need to observe for the indicators of international instability: first of the governing functions, the regime/party's ability to maintain governance over the entire territory of the north. This is combined with the coherency and support of the military for the regime. We have. seen reports of the measures being taken to try to get the military vaccinated. If the military suffers from a loss of coherency (a break down of the three chains of control (military, political, and security) then we may see signs of instability (and worse). The second caution is that when faced with internal threat the regime may choose to "externalize" them and create external threats to distract from the internal ones.  

These two charts that Bob Collins and I developed in the 1990s to try to illustrate the complex problems in north Korea. I think they may still be useful in trying to understand the situation and what could happen in 2021 and beyond (but I am not making a prediction on timing but I will predict if any of these scenarios emerge it will be catastrophic for the ROK/US alliance and the region and it will have global effects).

 

2. From mediator to negotiator (South Korea)

The Korea Times · by Park Jung-won · June 8, 2021

I hope we have figured out that there is no mediator role for the Korea problem, certainly not for South Korea. It needs to be a negotiator. Trying to take on the mediator role has been a boon for the regime's political warfare strategy.

Important advice for South Korea from Dr. Park: “The raison detre of any democratic state lies in the protection of lives, freedom and property for its people, the absence of which delegitimizes its existence. The Moon administration should resist any temptation to create another political stunt with North Korea in the name of "peace." Given its tough neighborhood, it is understandable that South Korea has been tiptoeing around the two superpowers, the U.S. and China. South Korea's troubled modern history has made "international politics" a subject that its citizens follow compulsively.

However, an excessively submissive posture toward Kim's North Korean regime which plays down South Korea's identity, as symbolized by liberal democracy, human rights and the rule of law, will no longer be convincing in the eyes of the proud South Korean people. To advance his country's interests, it is time for Moon to shed the delusion of playing the role of mediator and adopt that of a negotiator.

 

3. Kim Jong-un: apparent weight loss prompts speculation over North Korean leader’s health

The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · June 9, 2021

Perhaps he went on a Korean people's diet. 

Of course he may have just obtained a larger watch band. Or someone in the Propaganda and Agitation Department discovered photoshop and they are learning how to use it.

 

4. Kim said to unveil ‘tangible change’ plan for North Korea economy

Al Jazeera English

Will there be tangible (and positive) results?

Excerpts: “Kim’s plans were not specified but were described as intending to bring “tangible change” to stabilising the economy and people’s living conditions.

The North Korean economy has been crippled by decades of mismanagement, United States-led sanctions over Kim’s nuclear weapons programme and the pandemic. South Korean officials say there are no signs North Korea is easing the border controls it imposed at the start of the pandemic or importing more industrial and agricultural materials to boost production.

The Workers’ Party last held a plenary meeting of Central Committee members in February, when Kim ripped into state economic agencies for their “passive and self-protecting tendencies” in setting their annual goals.

 

5. Proposal to shift "general markets" to "specialized markets" finds little support among N. Korean leaders

dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · June 9, 2021

This is why authoritarian leaders cannot obtain creative ideas from their bureaucracies. You are at risk if your idea is not deemed worthy.

 

6. US dollar and Chinese reminbi plummet against North Korean won once again

dailynk.com · June 9, 2021

But I think those who have dollars and RMB (and euros) do not want to convert them to north Korean won. They want to use foreign currency in place of north Korean currency.

 

7. North Korea urges citizens to 'put national interest first' in latest economic push

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim

Ideology solves all north Korean problems (sure!)

 

8. S. Korea continues attempts to call N.K. every day through Panmunjom hotline to no avail: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 9, 2021

nK pays hard to get to South's unrequited love.

Seriously though, the north's failure to answer the phone is not new. They have gone for long periods of time over the years without answering the phone.

 

9. N.K. paper calls for scientific development conducive to actual growth, production

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 9, 2021

Unfortunately, science in north Korea is built on a foundation of juche and juche trumps all "facts."

 

10.  S. Korea open to anything but three-way summit with U.S., Japan not planned: diplomat

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 9, 2021

But you do not want to appear as a third wheel.

Excerpts: “Sullivan, however, noted a possibility "for virtually anything," citing what he called small spaces of the venue for the G7 summit in Britain's Cornwall.

"I understand we are not currently pushing for one (three-way summit)," Choi said when asked.

"However, I believe there can be many possibilities since the venue for the upcoming G7 summit is said to be not greater than previous G7 meetings or other multilateral forums in terms of space," he added.

South Korea is not a G7 member, but has been invited to this year's meeting as a guest, along with Australia, India and South Africa.

 

11. U.S. lowers travel advisory for S. Korea to lowest Level 1

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 9, 2021

Good news.

Today's "normal precaution" includes personal defensive measures against COVID.

 

12. [ANALYSIS] In 6G, U.S. wants Korea as teammate against China

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com  · by Kim Kyung-Min and Park Eun-Jee · June 8, 2021

 

13. Missile Sovereignty: Another Reason for America to Reduce its Footprint in Korea

19fortyfive.com · by Willis Krumholz · June 8, 2021

I certainly hope the administration did not have this in mind when terminating the missile guidelines. This is a dangerous proposal and one that is based on a lack of understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and what actually deters the north

 

14. We Condemn Abolishing the National Security Act, which Guarantees Continuous North Korean Espionage Activities Harmful to the Free Republic of Korea

East Asia Research · June 3, 2021

We must never forget the north’s subversion strategy and its capabilities for executing it. Of course the question is how effective is the National Security Act at countering their activities.

North Korean Agencies

Responsible for Subversion (UW, SO and CI/Security)

 North Korean intelligence and security services collect political, military, economic, and technical information through open sources, human intelligence, cyber intrusions, and signals intelligence capabilities. North Korea's primary intelligence collection targets remain the ROK, the United States, and Japan. They likely operate anywhere North Korea has a diplomatic or sizable economic overseas presence.

 

  • The Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB) is North Korea's primary foreign intelligence service, responsible for collection and clandestine operations. The RGB comprises six bureaus with compartmented functions, including operations, reconnaissance, technology and cyber capabilities, overseas intelligence, inter-Korean talks, and service support.

 

  • The Ministry of State Security (MSS) is North Korea's primary counterintelligence service and is an autonomous agency of the North Korean Government reporting directly to Kim Jong Un. The MSS is responsible for operating North Korean prison camps, investigating cases of domestic espionage, repatriating defectors, and conducting overseas counterespionage activities in North Korea's foreign missions.

 

  • The United Front Department (UFD) overtly attempts to establish pro-North Korean groups in the ROK, such as the Korean Asia-Pacific Committee and the Ethnic Reconciliation Council. The UFD is also the primary department involved in managing inter-Korean dialogue and North Korea's policy toward the ROK.

 

  • The 225th Bureau is responsible for training agents to infiltrate the ROK and establish underground political parties focused on fomenting unrest and revolution.

 

---------------

 

“Let us immediately establish the point. Our enemies know full well that news is an important weapon in modern warfare and they are unceasingly applying their knowledge as they wages total war. How they do so directly affects every one of us.”

- Matthew Gordon, News is a Weapon

 

“Cyber warfare is as much about psychological strategy as technical prowess.”

- James Scott, Senior Fellow, Institute for Critical Infrastructure Technology

 

A meme (rhymes with dream) is a unit of information (a catchphrase, a concept, a tune, a notion of fashion, philosophy or politics) that leaps from brain to brain. Memes compete with one another for replication, and are passed down through a population much the same way genes pass through a species. Potent memes can change minds, alter behavior, catalyze collective mindshifts and transform cultures. Which is why meme warfare has become the geopolitical battle of our information age. Whoever has the memes has the power.

- Kalle Lasn

06/08/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Tue, 06/08/2021 - 9:23am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. How A New Team Of Feds Hacked The Hackers And Got Colonial Pipeline's Bitcoin Back

2. Retired Army major general reduced to second lieutenant for sex crime conviction

3. Bitcoin Tumbles 9% on Fears that US Law Enforcement “Hacked” the Network

4. Our Digital Vulnerability Laid Bare: The Opening Gambit of the Next War

5. US recovers most of ransom paid after Colonial Pipeline hack

6. He spent years at war in Afghanistan. Now he commands the U.S. withdrawal.

7.  No, China will not invade Taiwan

8. The G7 is the west’s last chance to lead

9. Can Afghan forces hold off the Taliban after American troops leave?

10. Coronavirus Origins: What Happens When We Have the Answer?

11. Pentagon Faces Tense Fight Over Pacific Pivot

12. China Is Not Outspending US On Defense; ’22 Budget Is Enough

13. India’s suspect ‘Quad’ credentials

14. Report: Capitol Police were warned Trump backers would breach Capitol

15. Analysis: On Biden's trip, a foreign policy for domestic consumption

16. Pipeline exec to face Congress as US recovers most of ransom

17. Pentagon creates world's largest clandestine force for "nefarious" operations: Newsweek - Xinhua

18. In Major Promotion Shift, All Soldiers Will Serve as a Corporal Before Moving to Sergeant

19.  MC-130J Commando II Simulated Launching A Pallet Of Cruise Missiles During A Mock Strike Mission

20. Marines out of new infantry school are ‘more competent’ ― but more tests await

21. Major websites experience outages, including the New York Times, CNN and Amazon Web Services

22. Indo-Pacific Powerhouse: The Quad is Shaping Up

23. Phones and fitness devices that make it easier to track US troops are a new headache for special operators overseas

24. #Reviewing How to Prevent Coups d’Etat

25. At the Dawn of Special Operations - Lucien Stervinou | SOF News

 

1. How A New Team Of Feds Hacked The Hackers And Got Colonial Pipeline's Bitcoin Back

NPR · by Vanessa Romo · June 8, 2021

Great work. Whether it is true or not this is great IO. If we can (or they believe we can) reach out and hack the hackers and take their money maybe that will have a deterrent effect.

 

2. Retired Army major general reduced to second lieutenant for sex crime conviction

armytimes.com · by Todd South · June 7, 2021

Wow. Who says a retired officer cannot be disciplined?

 

3. Bitcoin Tumbles 9% on Fears that US Law Enforcement “Hacked” the Network

decrypt.co · by Liam J. Kelly · June 8, 2021

2d and 3d order effects. Let us gain and maintain the initiative and achieve effects that will secure the cyber domain for the US.

 

4. Our Digital Vulnerability Laid Bare: The Opening Gambit of the Next War

mwi.usma.edu · by Thomas G. Pledger · June 7, 2021

Time to get serious about cyber!

Conclusion: As former national security advisor H.R. McMaster noted, “There are two ways to fight the United States military: asymmetrically and stupid.” It is most likely that an adversary will create confusion, turmoil, and strategic and operational dilemmas before conducting aggressive actions—similar to Russia’s actions in Georgia in 2008. Recognizing, reducing, and building resilient physical and digital systems will not prevent all vulnerabilities, but will increase the cost of asymmetric operations—increasing safety, security, and stability for the United States and its population.

 

5. US recovers most of ransom paid after Colonial Pipeline hack

AP · by Eric Tucker

Again, great work. We need more of this.

 

6. He spent years at war in Afghanistan. Now he commands the U.S. withdrawal.

The Washington Post · by Dan Lamothe · June 7, 2021

A good man with a tough and thankless job. He will be forever tied to the events of 2021 in Afghanistan but he should be a study in leadership when the entire history is written.

Excerpts: “Michèle Flournoy, a senior defense official during the Obama administration, said military literature suggests that “one of the most dangerous moments in any campaign is during a retrograde or a withdrawal under fire.”

“We don’t know if they’ll be under fire, but it’s possible given the way the Taliban is behaving,” said Flournoy, who has known Miller for years. “I think that has got to be the focus right now, is how to do this in a way that reduces risk to our forces that are pulling out.”

Miller, who will have spent a total of about seven years in Afghanistan by the completion of the withdrawal, said the military has the means to protect itself if attacked.

“To date — and it’s to date — we have not seen that. But that’s only as good as until somebody decides to attack coalition forces,” Miller said. “We do think it’s very dangerous, and we take it seriously and it’s something we talk about every single day.”

 

7. No, China will not invade Taiwan

supchina.com · by Stephen J. Hartnett · June 7, 2021

But we would be wise to heed Sun Tzu's advice: Never assume your enemy will not attack. Make yourself invincible. 

Excerpts with an incredible conclusion.  So that is how he describes America:

"...just another power-hungry and ethics-free monster, grabbing what it wants by crushing the rights and lives of others."

My argument hinges on an assumption about how the PRC views itself, and how it wishes to be seen by others. At the root of this national identity lies a sense of China as a post-colonial entity that successfully threw off the shackles of the “century of humiliation” to begin its rise back to greatness. For Mao and the revolutionary generation, China was not only anti-colonial but pro-independence. These principles were expressed in the 1972 Shanghai Communique: “All nations, big or small,” the Communiqué pledged, “should be equal. Big nations should not bully the small and strong nations should not bully the weak.” Chinese nationalism was rooted to a sense of anti-colonial activism; China was not just an emerging power but an advocate of justice.

Invading Taiwan would mark the end of that sense of the nation as a force for good. China would henceforth be just another imperial power crushing a smaller neighbor. No one in the Indo-Pacific would feel safe. The feel-good “win-win” propaganda surrounding the One Belt, One Road initiative, a project Eyck Freyman dismisses as a trillion-dollar branding effort, would evaporate in a cloud of bombs.

Invading Taiwan would show that China has become — like Britain, France, America, Japan, and Russia before it — just another power-hungry and ethics-free monster, grabbing what it wants by crushing the rights and lives of others. This would mark the evolution of China from being a post-colonial nation into an imperial one. Losing its sense of self is much too steep a price just to appease the ultranationalists within its ranks.

No, China will not invade Taiwan – SupChina

In mainland China, fear of Taiwanese independence feeds the fever of traumatized nationalism, unites domestic rivals around a shared national dream, and serves as a never-ending threat that justifies enormous military expenditures — but not for war.

 

8. The G7 is the west’s last chance to lead

Financial Times · by Gideon Rachman · June 7, 2021

Last chance?

Excerpts:The G7 summit will also send an indirect message to China. The propaganda line pumped out from Beijing is that the west is in inexorable decline. A successful G7 summit could reinvigorate the idea that the west can provide global leadership in alliance with fellow democracies in Asia and around the world.

It is the G7’s identity as a club of democracies that gives it renewed significance in an era of rising tension between China and the west. The core seven countries — the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada — first met in the 1970s. At the end of the cold war, Russia was invited to join the group, turning the club into the G8. But the Russian Federation was booted out again after its annexation of Crimea in 2014.

The great challenge to the relevance of the G7 is the declining share of the world economy represented by those seven core nations. As Renata Dwan of Chatham House, a UK think-tank, points out, in the 1970s the G7 nations accounted for some 80 per cent of world gross domestic product. That is now down to about 40 per cent.

 

9. Can Afghan forces hold off the Taliban after American troops leave?

The Economist  · June 6, 2021

Interesting subtitle.

Excerpts: “American generals say they are keen not to repeat Russia's mistake by cutting funding prematurely. Yet exactly what support they will provide once they have left is unclear. The Pentagon said on June 2nd only that its backing would be largely financial—to help pay the salaries of security forces—with some aircraft maintenance thrown in.

After the Soviet Union departed, Najibullah's unexpected longevity was not only thanks to his army and their money. He also proved a surprisingly flexible and astute politician, who was given a largely free hand by Russia to do what was necessary to survive, says Mr Schroden. Here Mr Ghani may be in a more precarious position. He must unite the opportunistic and bickering factions of the Afghan state, all the while under pressure from the Americans to cut a deal with the Taliban. His chief task in the next few months will be to keep Afghanistan whole and prevent it from fracturing into competing fiefs.

With the Taliban buoyant and forecasts from Washington looking sombre, military morale may be key. “It is mainly psychological now. If we can get through the pressure of this summer, then we will be fine,” reckons one Afghan diplomat. Mr Amarkhel agrees: “If our forces can last for two months, they can survive.”

 

10. Coronavirus Origins: What Happens When We Have the Answer?

19fortyfive.com · by Wallace Gregson · June 6, 2021

Wise words from LtGen Gregson: "The death and illness toll in the U.S. and around the world was tragic. We must ensure that the post-mortem analysis contributes more to the healing of the world than to the further souring of relations."

 

11. Pentagon Faces Tense Fight Over Pacific Pivot

Foreign Policy · by Jack Detsch · June 7, 2021

Excerpts:The Pacific Deterrence Initiative was created by the Republican staff of the Senate Armed Services Committee last year to prod U.S. military services that usually eye big-ticket assets with their budget dollars to begin rotating forces to Asia, the former Senate aide said. Since the Pentagon’s base budget is subject to caps enacted during the Obama years, the measure would put pressure on services to cut elsewhere and move forces to Asia.

In the last days of the Trump administration, top officials in the policy shop had hoped to split the difference, keeping a mix of military weight on both sides of the international date line. But the administration remained distracted by threats from Iran and elsewhere. And with the Defense Department ordering the USS Ronald Reagan—the only American carrier strike group in Asia—to sail out of Japan to cover the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, some fear that the pivot is once again pausing.

“You want to be inside so that you have forces there if and when the fight starts, as opposed to trying to fight your way back in,” said Heino Klinck, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia until January. “On the other hand, you want to have forces outside of the [Chinese military] strike envelope. That’s the dilemma.”

 

12. China Is Not Outspending US On Defense; ’22 Budget Is Enough

breakingdefense.com · by Lawrence Korb

Excerpts:While the US, as Greenwalt points out, spends 16 times as much on its military recruits as China, are not our troops much better than their Chinese counterparts, who receive an average of $30,000 a year, which is less than half of what our troops get? Moreover, even with our smaller budget, the US has 20 times the number of nuclear warheads as China, three times the number of modern fighter jets, twice the tonnage of warships at sea, three times as many modern fighter jets, 800 overseas bases compared to China’s 3, and spends twice as much of GDP on defense as China.

Even if one accepts Greenwalt’s argument that the claim that the US spends more then the next 13 countries in the world combined is a trope, the fact of the matter is that most of those other countries on the list are US allies or friendly countries.

A much better comparison for determining whether we need to increase or decrease defense spending is to compare, in real terms, what we spent during the Reagan buildup or the peaks of the Korea and Vietnam Wars to our current level. Doing so shows that $753 billion, which is the proposed budget of the Biden administration for 2022, is substantially higher. While there is no doubt that Chinese military power is increasing, it is still nowhere close to that of the former Soviet Union, and somehow we won the Cold War even though the Soviets theoretically outspent us.

Moreover, the Reagan defense buildup was needed because of the severe cuts in defense spending in the 1970s, primarily by the Nixon administration. Biden is inheriting a defense budget that Trump increased by $100 billion over his four years in office. The Pentagon’s problems are not the amount of money it receives but how it spends it.

 

13. India’s suspect ‘Quad’ credentials

japantimes.co.jp · by Ramesh Thakur · June 5, 2021

Excerpts: “COVID-19 has brutally exposed the hollowness of India’s pretensions to power, status and influence and boasts of being a vaccine superpower and pharmacy to the world.

March’s virtual Quad summit already seems a distant dream. Echoing its birth amidst the humanitarian crisis of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, the four leaders agreed to partner in the production and distribution of “safe, accessible and effective vaccines” in collaboration with the World Health Organization.

India committed to accelerate and expand production of U.S. vaccines; Japan vowed to help with finance; the U.S. promised to put its scientific-technological shoulder to the collective effort and Australia said it would assist logistically with the distribution in Southeast Asia.

After seven years of unchecked exercises in power, the Modi government cannot credibly blame predecessors or foreign mischief-makers for the sorry state of affairs. Sadly, the biggest indictment of India is the absence of a viable national alternative to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The Congress Party is the one other national opposition group, but the only glue holding it together is the Gandhi family. Far from inspiring the people and infusing them with hope for the future, this sad reality fills them with despair. Nor can Congress match the BJP’s fundraising, organizational and public communications skills.

Still, if by some miracle the exogenous COVID-19 shock breaks the government’s hubris and arrogance, encourages it to undertake urgently needed economic and governance reforms, shifts it to a more accommodative and pluralistic policy posture at home and a greater openness to free trade, its attractiveness as a Quad partner will grow. Just don’t hold your breath for this triumph of hope over experience.

 

14. Report: Capitol Police were warned Trump backers would breach Capitol

NBC News · by Ken Dilanian and Frank Thorp V · June 8, 2021

Some damning information:The Capitol Police's possession of the specific intelligence had been previously flagged by the department's inspector general in a report that has not made public, NBC News and other news organizations have reported. But the Senate document sheds new light on it. The failure to distribute the information widely, the report says, left rank-and-file Capitol Police officers unprepared to defend themselves from the armed mob.

"The objects thrown at us varied in size, shape and consistency," an officer said. "Some were frozen cans and bottles, rebar from the construction, bricks, liquids, pepper spray, bear spray, sticks of various widths, pipes, bats."Another officer told Senate investigators: "We were ill prepared. We were NOT informed with intelligence. We were betrayed."

The 100-page Senate report, the results so far of a joint investigation by the Homeland Security and Rules committees, offers new details about what Capitol Police leaders knew and when they knew it. It recommends an overhaul of what it calls the "opaque" structure of the board overseeing the Capitol's security apparatus, with a specific provision to allow the Capitol Police chief to request National Guard assistance immediately, after it found that Washington, D.C., National Guardsmen didn't arrive at the Capitol for nearly three hours after they were first requested.

 

15. Analysis: On Biden's trip, a foreign policy for domestic consumption

NBC News · by Mike Memoli and Carol E. Lee · June 8, 2021

Our foreign policy must make sense to middle America and Americans in general.

 

16.  Pipeline exec to face Congress as US recovers most of ransom

AP · by Eric Tucker and Ben Fox

I would not want to be on his hot seat.

 

17. Pentagon creates world's largest clandestine force for "nefarious" operations: Newsweek - Xinhua

xinhuanet.com

A short summary from a Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece of the recent Newsweek article about the Pentagon's "secret army." It uses Newsweek's words to criticize the US.

 

18. In Major Promotion Shift, All Soldiers Will Serve as a Corporal Before Moving to Sergeant

military.com · by Steve Beynon · June 7, 2021

An interesting development.

Excerpts: “Because corporals and specialists earn the same pay, corporal is a relatively rare rank in the Army. Both ranks can hold junior leadership positions, typically as a team leader responsible for three to six soldiers. Previously, specialists were promoted straight to sergeant in most cases, skipping the corporal rank.

"This is a change in culture," Sgt. Maj. Kenyatta Gaskins, directorate of Military Personnel Management sergeant major, said in a statement. "This is not something we're used to. … It's a visual reminder that the soldiers have transitioned from junior ranks to become a member of the NCO Corps."

The Army also announced that troops must be recommended by a promotion board before attending BLC. That goes into effect June 1, 2022, for active-duty and full-time Guard and Reserve soldiers, and Oct. 1, 2022, for part-time soldiers.

 

19.  MC-130J Commando II Simulated Launching A Pallet Of Cruise Missiles During A Mock Strike Mission

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · June 7, 2021

Innovative and creative solutions to complex military problems?

 

20. Marines out of new infantry school are ‘more competent’ ― but more tests await

marinecorpstimes.com · by Philip Athey · June 7, 2021

 

21.  Major websites experience outages, including the New York Times, CNN and Amazon Web Services

The Washington Post · June 8, 2021

 

22. Indo-Pacific Powerhouse: The Quad is Shaping Up

The National Interest · by James Holmes · June 8, 2021

Excerpts: “As a strategy—in particular a military and naval strategy—containment is a fitting metaphor. This is clearest in East Asia, where the U.S. armed forces are reconfiguring themselves to fight among the islands, denying China’s navy and air force control of sea and sky. This approach comes straight out of the Cold War playbook, from the days when Secretary of State Dean Acheson called for making the first island chain America’s “defensive perimeter of the Pacific.”

The approach applies in the Indian Ocean as well, albeit in a fashion that is more scattered and not so visually striking when plotted on the map. Curbing Beijing’s effort to gain military access to Indian Ocean seaports is itself a way to contain China’s martial reach—and one well worth pursuing.

Quad members may shy away from the containment metaphor, and that is understandable. They mainly need to be precise when explaining their purposes and how they intend to put power to work attaining them. That means being circumspect about the terms they use to describe China policy. But they should own it on the military side.

Let’s dust off the Cold War playbook—and be candid about it. Lord Ismay would smile.

 

23. Phones and fitness devices that make it easier to track US troops are a new headache for special operators overseas

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

 

24. #Reviewing How to Prevent Coups d’Etat

thestrategybridge.org · June 7, 2021

Excerpt: “To those with a background in coup studies or civilian-military relations, How to Prevent Coups d’état draws parallels to Naunihal Singh’s Seizing Power, particularly as an extension of coordination games applied to the field of coup studies. I found it interesting that this work applied coordination problems and commitment problems, two often-discussed game theoretic explanations for conflict, but other game theoretic explanations of conflict, such as issue indivisibility and incomplete information, or incentives to misrepresent, are not fully fleshed out, even as analytic narratives. In an event with such a profound impact on the professional and even personal lives of counterweight force members, rapport and unwillingness to compromise might play a large role, be it rapport with other branches of the armed forces, rapport with the leader, or rapport with the other civilians potentially impacted by regime change or lack thereof. Likewise, transparency issues seem to abound in the narratives given in each of the case studies, ultimately suggesting that these could play a role, but they are not a central emphasis of this work. This book is a great addition to the literature as it paves the way for further exploring rationalist explanations of both coup-proofing and coup success, implementing what we know from bargaining models of war to other sorts of political conflict and civilian-military relations.

 

25. At the Dawn of Special Operations - Lucien Stervinou | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · June 6, 2019

Still so much to learn from our history. And the OSS was an organization that punched well above its weight both while it was in existence and later as continued contributions by its former members.

 

-----------------

 

“I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers of the society but the people themselves ; and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education. This is the true corrective of abuses of constitutional power.”

- Thomas Jefferson

 

“We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.”

- Abraham Lincoln

 

“The greatest threat to our Constitution is our own ignorance of it.”

- Jacob F. Roecker

06/08/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Tue, 06/08/2021 - 9:06am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Biden will appoint special envoy for N. Korean human rights as required: Blinken

2. Is Nuclear Peace with North Korea Possible?

3. North Korea is "scrambling" to secure large amounts of COVID-19 vaccine for its military

4. Pro-North Korea newspaper in Japan denies changes in unification policy

5. U.N. nuclear watchdog sees indications of plutonium work in North Korea

6. S. Korea not considering boycott of Tokyo Olympics amid Dokdo spat: ministry

7. North Korea faces serious humanitarian crisis: report

8. State media: Kim has plans to stabilize N. Korean economy

9. Ask a North Korean: Can Joe Biden reach a breakthrough with North Korea?

10. Kim Jong Un is waging a culture war, and North Korea is cracking down on foreign movies, slang, and even clothes and hairstyles

11. Is Joe Biden Serious about Negotiating with North Korea?

12. Korean-Americans eager for reunions with kin in North

13. China's Confucius Institutes facing calls to leave Korea

14. North Korea Taps Workers in Russia to Fund Pyongyang Construction

 

1. Biden will appoint special envoy for N. Korean human rights as required: Blinken

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 8, 2021

My recommendation is my good friend Greg Scarlatoiu who is the executive director of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (hrnk.org).  A fluent Korean speaker, a great American with decades of Korea experience and someone who survived another despotic regime with parallels and close ties to north Korea until the revolution in Romania.   There are few who understand the north Korean human rights situation to the depth that Greg does.

 

2. Is Nuclear Peace with North Korea Possible?

dailynk.com · by Bennett Ramberg · June 7, 2021

Do this and we can expect Kim to double down on his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.

Excerpt: North Korea’s economy – by Kim’s own admission – in desperate need of repair. For America, which currently lacks effective ballistic-missile defenses, the prospect of being in North Korea’s nuclear crosshairs is unacceptable. Could this point to a possible trade-off, namely the lifting of sanctions in exchange for the elimination of rockets?

My bottom line: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

 

3. North Korea is "scrambling" to secure large amounts of COVID-19 vaccine for its military

dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · June 8, 2021

This could be a significant indicator.  Is the military in trouble because of COVID? We know how important the military is to the survival of the Kim family regime.

The regime will collapse when the regime/party can no longer govern across the north from Pyongyang combined with the breakdown of the military (and its three chains of control - military, political, and security) so that the military can no longer support the regime.  This leads to uncertainty and complexity about what can happen next.
 
Let me reprise this article in which Bob Collins and I discuss north Korean contingencies to include regime collapse (and Bob lays out the 7 phases of regime collapse). 
 
“When North Korea Falls.” Robert Kaplan 
The furor over Kim Jong Il’s missile tests and nuclear brinksmanship obscures the real threat: the prospect of North Korea’s catastrophic collapse. How the regime ends could determine the balance of power in Asia for decades. The likely winner? China” 
 
Here is a link to
my 1996 Monograph following the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996 
 “The Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the U.S. Military” 

Beyond the Nuclear Crisis:   A Strategy for the Korean Peninsula
National Defense University

 

4. Pro-North Korea newspaper in Japan denies changes in unification policy

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim

Just in case anyone missed this.  We should have no doubt the regime is conducting political warfare.

 Political Warfare: Political warfare is the use of political means to compel an opponent to do one's will, based on hostile intent. The term political describes the calculated interaction between a government and a target audience to include another state's government, military, and/or general population. Governments use a variety of techniques to coerce certain actions, thereby gaining relative advantage over an opponent. The techniques include propaganda and psychological operations (PSYOP), which service national and military objectives respectively. Propaganda has many aspects and a hostile and coercive political purpose. Psychological operations are for strategic and tactical military objectives and may be intended for hostile military and civilian populations.  Smith, Paul A., On Political War (Washington: National Defense University Press, 1989), p. 3. 

 

5. U.N. nuclear watchdog sees indications of plutonium work in North Korea

Reuters · by Francois Murphy

Excerpts: "The steam plant that serves the Radiochemical Laboratory has continued to operate since my last Statement to the Board in March," he said in the text of a speech.

"The duration of this operation is consistent with the time required for a reprocessing campaign at the Radiochemical Laboratory. It is not, however, possible to confirm that reprocessing is taking place," he added.

There was no indication in the past three months of operations at North Korea's main, 5-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon that is widely believed to have produced plutonium for weapons. The IAEA has previously said it has probably been shut down since December 2018.

 

6. S. Korea not considering boycott of Tokyo Olympics amid Dokdo spat: ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 8, 2021

Some good news I suppose.

 

7. North Korea faces serious humanitarian crisis: report

The Korea Times · June 8, 2021

The responsibility for the suffering of the Korean people living in the north lies squarely on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un and his deliberate policy decisions to prioritize his nuclear program, the military, and support to the regime elite over the welfare of the Korean people.  He has also made the decision to use the excuse of COVID mitigation and defense to implement draconian population and resources control measures to further oppress the people to protect the survival of the regime.

 

8. State media: Kim has plans to stabilize N. Korean economy

AP · Kim Tong-Hyung

What are the plans?  Will they try another currency action like 2010?

 

9. Ask a North Korean: Can Joe Biden reach a breakthrough with North Korea?

nknews.org · by Hyun-Seung Lee · June 1, 2021

An important perspective from our good friend Hyun-seung Lee.

One excerpt:

“Do you think that sanctions are bad for human rights?”

“Some argue that it’s ordinary people who end up having to suffer the most. I do not think this is true. Sanctions hurt everybody, including the elites that are losing money. A positive outcome is that the government has less control over the people because the people are less reliant on it to provide for them. Therefore sanctions give more freedom to people, even if it does reduce the overall amount of money and goods flowing into North Korea.

 

10. Kim Jong Un is waging a culture war, and North Korea is cracking down on foreign movies, slang, and even clothes and hairstyles

Business Insider · by Ryan Pickrell

Follow-up reporting based on the recent Daily NK and BBC articles.

 

11. Is Joe Biden Serious about Negotiating with North Korea?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · June 7, 2021

Sigh...  Why does no one ask this question of Kim Jong-un?  Is Kim ever going to be serious about negotiating with the US?

But give me a break. Ambassador Kim is the most competent professional in our government to be the special representative.  In addition, he has a strong Korea team doing the day to day work.

He likely has spent the past four months as the acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific leading the Korea policy review and crafting the new policy.  There is probably no one more knowledgeable of the policy than Ambassador Kim.

We are giving Kim Jong-un the opportunity to act as a responsible member of the international community and negotiate.  I am sure if Kim Jong-un decides to come to the table it will have Ambassador Kim's full attention.

 

12. Korean-Americans eager for reunions with kin in North

koreanjoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim

A good humanitarian initiative. But I doubt Kim Jong-un will allow this to happen.  But we have to have "the guts to try" as a great Air Force general once wrote though in different context.

Just as an aside, I am reminded of President Biden's words from last fall:

“This appears to be in line with President Biden’s initial statement when he provided his first look at the new policy on October 30th when he published a special contribution to Yonhap News.  This was his only piece in a foreign paper prior to the election and is an indication of the priority he places on the Korean situation.  This paragraph provided early guidance for the review:

 

“Words matter -- and a president's words matter even more. As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops. I'll engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula, while working to reunite Korean Americans separated from loved ones in North Korea for decades.”

 

13. China's Confucius Institutes facing calls to leave Korea

The Korea Times  · by Kang Hyun-kyung· June 8, 2021

The Korean people are becoming increasingly disenchanted with China.

 

14. North Korea Taps Workers in Russia to Fund Pyongyang Construction

rfa.org · by Jeong Yon Park

north Korean "slaves" in Russia are being "taxed."  Yes that is some hyperbole but think about these workers and the hardships they suffer in hope they can make some money for their families back in north Korea.

Excerpts: “Last week, I ran into a North Korean who works in Vladivostok who told me that he was very upset because the North Korean authorities ordered him to pay additional loyalty funds,” a Russian citizen of Korean descent living in the Russian Far Eastern city told RFA’s Korean Service on June 1.

“The order came at the end of April, and it says each person must pay an additional U.S. $100 per month,” said the source, who requested anonymity to speak freely. “We know that the extra loyalty funds will go to housing construction in Pyongyang.”

The ambitious building project is the brainchild of North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, who promised at the ruling Korean Workers’ Party congress in January to alleviate the capital’s housing shortage with 50,000 new homes by the end of 2025, including 10,000 in 2021.

 

-----------------

 

“I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers of the society but the people themselves ; and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education. This is the true corrective of abuses of constitutional power.”

- Thomas Jefferson

 

“We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.”

- Abraham Lincoln

 

“The greatest threat to our Constitution is our own ignorance of it.”

- Jacob F. Roecker

06/07/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

Mon, 06/07/2021 - 9:37am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. C.I.A. Scrambles for New Approach in Afghanistan

2. The Psychic Toll of Killing With Drones

3. Are We Waiting for Everyone to Get Hacked?

4. Biden and the Afghan Translators

5. Let's educate service members on professional ethos, not just extremism

6. Supreme Court asked to review men-only draft registration law

7. The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak

8. Putin questions U.S. prosecution of Capitol rioters, saying mob carried only ‘political requests’

9. Taliban demand 'remorse' from fearful Afghan interpreters

10. Philippine Navy Plans Use of Hanjin Subic Shipyard

11. US senators took a military aircraft to Taiwan to announce vaccine donation. To Beijing, that is a major provocation

12. Biden says he will 'rally the world's democracies' this week in reset for US foreign policies

13. How Beijing shot itself in the foot with its trade war with Australia

14. EXCLUSIVE: Biden not seeking to add countries to Quad to counter China

15. ‘Do We Need to Be in Hong Kong?’ Global Companies Are Eying the Exits

16. US asks Taiwan to fill void as Confucius Institutes close

17. Opinion | Something appears to be ‘simply, simply wrong’ at the Biden Justice Department

18. Assessing U.S. Army Diversity Efforts in the Context of Great Power Competition

19. The Cost of Being an ‘Interchangeable Asian’

20.  Once a Bastion of Free Speech, the A.C.L.U. Faces an Identity Crisis

21. Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion - Global SOF Foundation Imperatives

22. How the I Ching informs China’s harmonious pursuit of geopolitical strategy

23. Special Operations News Update - Monday, June 7, 2021 | SOF News

 

1. C.I.A. Scrambles for New Approach in Afghanistan

The New York Times · by Mark Mazzetti and Julian E. Barnes · June 6, 2021

Excerpts: “Recent C.I.A. and military intelligence reports on Afghanistan have been increasingly pessimistic. They have highlighted gains by the Taliban and other militant groups in the south and east, and warned that Kabul could fall to the Taliban within years and return to becoming a safe haven for militants bent on striking the West, according to several people familiar with the assessments.

As a result, U.S. officials see the need for a long-term intelligence-gathering presence — in addition to military and C.I.A. counterterrorism operations — in Afghanistan long after the deadline that Mr. Biden has set for troops to leave the country. But the scramble for bases illustrates how U.S. officials still lack a long-term plan to address security in a country where they have spent trillions of dollars and lost more than 2,400 troops over nearly two decades.

...

Some American officials said that negotiations with Pakistan had reached an impasse for now. Others have said the option remains on the table and a deal is possible.

 

2. The Psychic Toll of Killing With Drones

WSJ · by Wayne Phelps

Excerpt: “If the target is a high-value individual, it’s a certainty that he isn’t a boy scout. Brett Velicovich was an intelligence analyst for the Army Special Forces who used RPAs to help hunt HVIs throughout Iraq, including some top-tier targets. He wrote the book “Drone Warrior” to describe his operations. In an interview with Vox he described how it felt to watch bad people do normal things:

“You’re watching these guys and they’re totally normal. You see them dropping their kids off at school. You see them having tea or coffee at a local market. You see them doing normal things. It’s almost like People magazine or something. You always have these ‘the stars are just like us’ type of feelings. You see terrorists doing stuff that anyone else would do. It’s what they’re doing in the shadows that we’re trying to find. When you find that, then you know you’ve got him.”

 

3. Are We Waiting for Everyone to Get Hacked?

The New York Times · by Nicole Perlroth · June 5, 2021

Excerpts: “So, what is it going to take to keep Americans safe? It’s a big question.

The answers, though, can be small. The kindling for these digital infernos is buggy and out-of-date software nobody bothers to patch. It’s companies that don’t back up their data or have a security plan for ransomware attacks, despite their ubiquity. It’s the failure to use different passwords and turn on two-factor authentication. The hackers who tried to contaminate Florida’s drinking water exploited the fact that employees shared the same password and ran a decade-old version of Windows software. At the pipeline, it came down to the lack of multi-factor authentication on an old employee account.

It’s “cyberhygiene,” the accumulation of day in, day out investments and inconveniences by government, businesses and individuals that make hackers’ jobs harder. And some are very low tech.

Among the few high-profile organizations that was not actually hacked last year was the Democratic National Committee. Going into 2020, Bob Lord, the D.N.C.’s first chief information security officer, employed a novel approach to help ensure that hackers stayed out of D.N.C. emails this time. He posted signs over the urinals in the men’s room and on the wall in the women’s room reminding everyone to run their phone updates, use the encrypted app Signal for sensitive communications and not click on links.

Mr. Panetta, watching from afar, has his own simple solution for staying safe — and specifically making sure his internet-connected Lexus isn’t hacked. A few years ago, he fixed up his dad’s old 1951 Chevy truck, and that is what he uses to get around.

When he does drive the Lexus, he has careful instructions for his passenger: “I tell my wife, ‘Now be careful what you say.’”

 

4. Biden and the Afghan Translators

WSJ · by The Editorial Board

A difference between Vietnam and Afghanistan is Afghans will not have the opportunity to take to boats to escape.

Excerpts:Congress has a role to play. It likely will include legislation for more visas for the SIV program in this year’s National Defense Authorization Act. But President Biden as Commander in Chief can press Congress to simplify the visa rules or order an evacuation.

 

“The United States has no obligation to evacuate one, or 100,001, South Vietnamese,” then-Sen. Biden said in 1975 as the U.S. withdrew from Vietnam. The result was the exodus of the “boat people,” many of whom died in the open ocean, that was a stain on America. Mr. Biden has an opportunity—make that an obligation—to do better by thousands of Afghans.

 

5. Let's educate service members on professional ethos, not just extremism

The Hill · by Kelly E. Atkinson and Marybeth P. Ulrich· June 6, 2021

You cannot go wrong with a focus on the professional ethos.  

Excerpts:Civilian and military leaders alike must increase the emphasis and energy devoted to educating and training service members on the expectations of a professional ethos, in line with the oath. Cadets at the Air Force Academy have spearheaded such an effort with the founding of The Oath Project this spring, through which a dozen cadets created a comprehensive program to reinvigorate education on the oath of office. This program is a model for other military educational institutions and units to emulate.

The Department of Defense must clarify guidance and reaffirm expectations that any and all acts of extremism that threaten the constitutional order are in direct violation of our professional military ethos. We must understand the lifelong obligations that the oath asks of us: to protect and defend the Constitution; uphold democratic processes and the constitutional rights of our fellow citizens to participate in them; and refrain from partisan political activities in alignment with existing civil-military norms. If we fail to delineate, educate and train military members on clear expectations for this professional military ethos, our military institutions risk internal fracturing that may threaten the democracy they are sworn to defend.

 

6. Supreme Court asked to review men-only draft registration law

militarytimes.com · by Jessica Gresko· June 6, 2021

Excerpts: If the court agrees to take the case, arguments wouldn’t happen until the fall at the earliest, after the court’s summer break. The court already has high-profile cases awaiting it then. They include a major challenge to abortion rights and an appeal to expand gun rights.”

 

7. The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak

WSJ · by Steven Quay and Richard Muller

Conclusion: The presence of the double CGG sequence is strong evidence of gene splicing, and the absence of diversity in the public outbreak suggests gain-of-function acceleration. The scientific evidence points to the conclusion that the virus was developed in a laboratory.

 

8. Putin questions U.S. prosecution of Capitol rioters, saying mob carried only ‘political requests’

The Washington Post · by Isabelle Khurshudyan · June 4, 2021

The insurrectionists have Putin's support. Go figure.

 

9. Taliban demand 'remorse' from fearful Afghan interpreters

24matins.uk · June 7, 2021

I fear remorse is code for confession prior to execution.

 

10. Philippine Navy Plans Use of Hanjin Subic Shipyard

Bloomberg · by Cecilia Yap · June 7, 2021

The US was forced to give up Subic. A Korean firm builds modern facilities. Now the Philippine Navy will lease part of the facility.

 

11. US senators took a military aircraft to Taiwan to announce vaccine donation. To Beijing, that is a major provocation

CNN · by Nectar Gan and Ben Westcott

Excerpts:When delivering his welcoming remarks to the US visitors on Sunday, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu again criticized Beijing. "While we are doing our best to import vaccines, we must overcome obstacles to ensure that these lifesaving medicines are delivered free of trouble from Beijing. Taiwan is no stranger to this kind of obstruction," he said.

But the biggest poke in the eye to Beijing is perhaps not Wu's comments or the vaccine donation deal itself, but the US military aircraft parked on the runway.

The American delegation arrived at Taiwan's Songshan Airport on a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster III freighter -- a primary strategic lift aircraft for the US military.

Previously, US officials and politicians had flown to Taiwan on the C-40, a military version of the Boeing 737 commercial airliner, according to Taiwan's Central News Agency.

 

12. Biden says he will 'rally the world's democracies' this week in reset for US foreign policies

The Hill · by Mychael Schnell · June 6, 2021

 

13. How Beijing shot itself in the foot with its trade war with Australia

ABC.net.au · June 6, 2021

As Bonaparte said: never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.

 

14. EXCLUSIVE: Biden not seeking to add countries to Quad to counter China

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

We should not be pushing countries to join the Quad. The Quad+ will be stronger if countries determine it is in their best interests for national prosperity and national security to align with it.

 

15. ‘Do We Need to Be in Hong Kong?’ Global Companies Are Eying the Exits

WSJ · by John Lyons and Frances Yoon

I am not nor ever have been a businessman. But I do not see how any business could afford to remain in such a politically troubled country (or city such as Hong Kong).

While Singapore would appear to be a good alternative, is Shanghai? Seems to be by going to Shanghai the CCP will benefit from its actions in Hong Kong.

 

16. US asks Taiwan to fill void as Confucius Institutes close

asia.nikkei.com · by Nick Aspinwall

 

17. Opinion | Something appears to be ‘simply, simply wrong’ at the Biden Justice Department

The Washington Post · by Fred Ryan · June 6, 2021

This is why we need separation of powers and checks and balances as well as a fourth estate to hold the government accountable.

Excerpt: "Unfortunately, new revelations suggest that the Biden Justice Department not only allowed these disturbing intrusions to continue — it intensified the government‘s attack on First Amendment rights before finally backing down in the face of reporting about its conduct."

Conclusion: "The inconsistency between presidential words and Justice Department deeds dictates the need for full accountability and transparency regarding the actions taken by the exiting Trump Justice Department and those of the incoming Biden administration. A full accounting should be produced and released for the American public to see."

 

18.  Assessing U.S. Army Diversity Efforts in the Context of Great Power Competition

divergentoptions.org · by Louis Melancon · June 7, 2021

The author argues the Army needs a deliberate effort to shape heuristics to keep up with diversity initiatives.

Conclusion: “The U.S. Army has not been as effective in breaking and replacing old heuristics in conjunction with the active steps to increase diversity. Anecdotal evidence is emerging that new heuristics are naturally emerging within the force that will slow down the efforts to improve diversity; this is a result of not deliberately seeking to replace heuristics at pace with new diversity initiatives. As an example, rather than focus on matching skills needed for a position with a candidate, some units are seeking out personnel whose career trajectory closely matches previous concepts of a successful soldier. Preferring a concept of what makes a good soldier over recognized skills needed for mission success goes against what the U.S. Army desires with talent management. There is no maliciousness here, humans rely on heuristics and so older, flawed concepts are tweaked on the margins if nothing is provided to replace them. The units are seeking to do the right thing, but are limited by what the individuals within them know. Without a deliberate effort to shape heuristics that support new policies, the ones which emerge in the force will inevitably and inadvertently buttress the old biases.

Senator Cruz provided a teachable moment. His constituents will decide with the ballot if he will have to pay a price for having outdated and flawed heuristics. Were the U.S. Army to share Senator Cruz’s outlook, the price paid in both competition and conflict with peer competitors will be much higher for soldiers if the issue of heuristics is not addressed now.

 

19.  The Cost of Being an ‘Interchangeable Asian’

The New York Times · by Brian X. Chen · June 6, 2021

Excerpt:But as a first step, what many Asian American professionals need is simple. They want their colleagues to bother to learn their names.

Yes, it’s probably happened to all of us, no matter our identity: An acquaintance or colleague mistakes you for another person with the same hairdo or a similar name. But for people of Asian descent, it happens without question when there are a few other Asians in the office, even when they look and sound nothing alike.

In nearly two dozen conversations with professionals of Asian descent in recent weeks, and in 15 years of my own experience in the workplace, the consensus was clear: It happens again and again, from one job to the next. While the problem is prevalent in the United States, the mix-ups also frequently happen in other countries where people with Asian heritage make up a minority, like Canada. There’s even a term for it: the interchangeable Asian.

 

20. Once a Bastion of Free Speech, the A.C.L.U. Faces an Identity Crisis

The New York Times · by Michael Powell · June 6, 2021

Please focus on freedom of speech (press, religion, etc) . It is an American issue, not a progressive issue.

 

21. Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion - Global SOF Foundation Imperatives

gsofimperatives.org

 

22.  How the I Ching informs China’s harmonious pursuit of geopolitical strategy

SCMP · by Lub Bun Chong · June 7, 2021

Harmony (as defined by the CCP I am sure).

How the I Ching informs China’s harmonious pursuit of geopolitical strategy

  • The Chinese dream, belt and road, Taiwan policy and vaccine diplomacy all seek to preserve harmony, a key notion in the I Ching
  • The US would do well to realise that China’s growing clout necessitates an accommodating shift, not a breakdown, in the global balance

 

23. Special Operations News Update - Monday, June 7, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · June 7, 2021

 

---------------------

 

“A man who has the knowledge but lacks the power clearly to express it is no better off than if he never had any ideas at all.”

 - Thucydides, The History of the Peloponnesian War

 

“Judge a man by his questions rather than by his answers.”

- Voltaire

 

" ...there was no point in seeking to convert the intellectuals. For intellectuals would never be converted and would anyway always yield to the stronger, 'and this will always be the man in the street.' Arguments must therefore be crude, clear and forcible, and appeal to emotions and instincts, not the intellect. Truth was unimportant and entirely subordinate to tactics and psychology...Hatred and contempt must be directed at particular individuals.   

- H. Trevor-Roper (ed), The Goebbels Diaries

 

 

06/07/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Mon, 06/07/2021 - 9:22am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1.  Pro-N. Korea paper says Pyongyang continues to pursue unification of Korean Peninsula

2. Is South Korea ready to throw in its lot with Washington?

3. NorthKorea’s Capabilities for Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack

4. 'Farmland of peace' project will promote inter-Korean cooperation: unification ministry

5. Seoul court rejects slave labor claim against Japanese firms

6. Why Kim Jong-un is waging war on slang, jeans and foreign films

7. Vice FM Choi to visit U.S. this week for talks with counterpart Sherman

8. Moon orders complete overhaul of military culture

9. US Marine Corps F-35Bs to visit South Korea

10. G7 to test Korea's balancing act between US, China

11. Seoul pushes for reviving inter-Korean tour programs

12. Moon’s visit to spy headquarters brings with it pro-North symbol

13. Nuclear energy stocks surge again after Korea-US summit

14. Vaccines for Korean Soldiers Arrive from U.S.

15. S Korea under mega cyber attacks in pandemic-driven online era

 

1. Pro-N. Korea paper says Pyongyang continues to pursue unification of Korean Peninsula

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 7, 2021

Thank you to the Propaganda and Agitation Department and the Choson Sinbo for confirming the answers to my questions:

“Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

Then again, perhaps the Choson Sinbo did not get the memo and is speaking out of school.

 

2. Is South Korea ready to throw in its lot with Washington?

asia.nikkei.com · by Soo Kim · June 6, 2021

Excerpts: “The U.S.-South Korea summit reaffirmed the countries' shared history and common security interests and primed atmospherics to facilitate future-oriented expanded cooperation beyond matters concerning the immediate edge of the Korean Peninsula. This, if implemented thoroughly and across overlapping issues and initiatives -- the Quad, for instance -- may not only enhance Washington's position in the region but strengthen Seoul's own fortitude when it comes to standing up to China's aggression and occasional pressures, as well.

 

South Korea's ambivalence and hesitation when it comes to articulating a clear position either way remains a significant sticking point in the allies' ability to stick together and move forward on current and emerging challenges of common concern.

 

Such equivocation may breed tensions in the alliance and encourage Beijing to pressure Seoul even more. In the interests of shared democratic values and protecting the international rules-based order, Seoul may wish to consider whether to make an unequivocal strategic decision regarding its bilateral relations with both Washington and Beijing.

 

3. NorthKorea’s Capabilities for Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack

EMP Task Force  · by Peter Vincent Pry · June 6, 2021

The 14 page report can be downloaded at this link.

Yes this is a potential real threat. However, I am much more concerned about the north’s cyber capabilities. I think there may be ways to inflict tremendous damage on our infrastructure through cyber than going through all the effort to deliver EMP effects to the US. And if the four revisionist and rogue powers ever synchronized their efforts we could be in real trouble.

 

4. 'Farmland of peace' project will promote inter-Korean cooperation: unification ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 7, 2021

A project I could get behind would be for farmers in the South to directly engage with farmers in the north to provide best practices along with fertilizer, seeds, and modern equipment. It would be ideal if this could be done on a people to people basis but I know it is a naive pipe dream as the regime would never allow it.

 

5. Seoul court rejects slave labor claim against Japanese firms

AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung

An interesting development. I do not know enough about South Korea law to assess whether the court is objectively judging the case or if there is political influence. However, I doubt this will be enough to change the relationship because I worry about the blowback in the South.

 

6. Why Kim Jong-un is waging war on slang, jeans and foreign films

BBC · by Laura Bicker

Yes we have seen this information reported quite a bit in recent weeks. Laura Bicker of the BBC provides some useful context and analysis.

Weed to execute a comprehensive and sophisticated information and influence activities campaign. Kim Jong-un is denying the human rights of the Korean people living in the north for one simple reason: to ensure he remains in power.

 

7. Vice FM Choi to visit U.S. this week for talks with counterpart Sherman

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 7, 2021

Execution of the joint statement and information in the fact sheet from the summit is going to be very important.  I am optimistic about the sustained high level engagement while at the same time I am critical of the comments from the Moon administration regarding combined military training and sanctions relief/concessions.

 

8. Moon orders complete overhaul of military culture

koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · June 7, 2021

Changing culture? Could be as hard as denuclearizing north Korea or changing the nature of war.. And I do not mean to be sarcastic or flippant. Changing military culture is not something that can be changed with the establishment of a task force.

That said the kind of misconduct described can and must be targeted and the military must do everything it can to protect military members and deal with misconduct correctly.

 

9. US Marine Corps F-35Bs to visit South Korea

The Korea Times ·by Kang Seung-woo · June 6, 2021

Message to Kim? The regime fears the F-35s and the US Marines so this is a double threat to the regime!

 

10. G7 to test Korea's balancing act between US, China

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo · June 7, 2021

Excerpts: “The South has been exercising a balancing act between the U.S. and China amid the two super powers' rivalry, although during the summit between President Moon Jae-in and his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden, Seoul showed signs of titling toward Washington. Against this backdrop, the upcoming leaders' meeting in Cornwall, the United Kingdom, will be another opportunity for Seoul to join the Washington-led initiative against Beijing, the experts said.

 

Recent overseas reports ― citing sources familiar with the matter ― said the G7 countries ― Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. ― plan to launch a green alternative to the BRI.

 

The initiative, thought to be called the "Clean Green Initiative," was initially raised by the U.S., as an alternative to the BRI. In a March phone conversation between Biden and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the former suggested democratic countries should create an infrastructure plan to rival the BRI, and the initiative will likely see a framework suggested during the G7 summit.

 

11. Seoul pushes for reviving inter-Korean tour programs

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · June 7, 2021

We must remember that tourism directly benefits Kim Jong-un and his royal court economy. The royal court economy funds the nuclear program and takes care of the regime and the elite.

 

12. Moon’s visit to spy headquarters brings with it pro-North symbol

onekoreanetwork.com · June 4, 2021

Excerpts: “The key purpose of the reform is to transform the NIS to become more like the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, which takes care of overseas operations and intelligence matters, while creating a new Korean version of the Federal Bureau of Investigation that oversees domestic matters.

The main opposition People Power Party has been against the reform, particularly the clause that will ban the NIS from investigating pro-North Korean activities in South Korea. “The National Assembly is trying to pass a law that would only be beneficial to North Korea, which constantly tries to make South Korea Communist,” said Rep. Lee Chul-gyu of the PPP during the filibuster session in December. “It is so South Korea will not be involved in activities that North Koreans feel burdened by and dislike, and is weakening our country’s capability [to deal with North Korea].”

The controversy:

During President Moon’s latest visit to the NIS, a ceremony was held that unveiled a stone with the agency’s new motto celebrating its 60th founding anniversary next week. It reads, “Serving Our Nation and People with Unwavering Loyalty and Devotion.” The problem with the stone is that it used a font called “Arms around each other’s shoulders” created by the late professor Shin Young-bok.

Shin is considered a liberal intellectual among South Koreans on the left, but conservatives emphasize that he was a criminal who was involved in the so-called Unification Revolutionary Party (Tonghyuk-dang) incident in 1968. The case refers to the biggest spy scandal in South Korean history.

Central to the scandal, South Korean revolutionary leftist Kim Jong-tae illegally visited North Korea four times and received funding from North Korea to form the People’s Revolutionary Party. The five main criminals involved in the plot, including Kim Jong-tae, were apprehended in South Korea and sentenced to death, and 158 others were arrested. Shin Young-bok was one of the key academic and cultural figures who were recruited by Kim Jong-tae, who planned an armed uprising and overthrow of the government.

Shin was sentenced to life in prison for violating the National Security Act. He was released in 1988 after 20 years in prison after writing a letter that declared he had undergone an ideological conversion. However, he later changed his words and said “I never changed my ideology or betrayed my comrades.”

Forest’ spirit that he emphasized is becoming a reality at next year’s anniversary event.”

 

13. Nuclear energy stocks surge again after Korea-US summit

The Korea Times · by Yi Whan-woo · June 6, 2021

Excerpts: “During their summit in Washington, D.C., President Moon Jae-in and U.S. President Joe Biden said in their joint statement that the two allies are committed to "develop cooperation in overseas nuclear markets, including joint participation in nuclear power plant projects, while ensuring the highest standards of international nuclear safety, security, and nonproliferation are maintained."

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a KEPCO official said the Korea-U.S. nuclear cooperation will be beneficial for KEPCO E&C, which is responsible for designing, engineering, and constructing nuclear and fossil-fuel power plants.

The official added that KEPCO E&C has been participating in bids for nuclear power plant construction projects in the Czech Republic, Poland and Saudi Arabia, among others.

The firm is also developing a small modular reactor (SMR), which Gates' company, TerraPower, and Buffett's power company, PacifiCorp, seek to build in Wyoming.

The project, called "Natrium," will be built on the site of an old coal plant, with a goal of producing 500 megawatts of power during peak demand.

SMRs are considered to be more eco-friendly than traditional nuclear reactors, because they are carbon-free power sources, which President Moon has sought to put in place policy to foster their development as next-generation growth engines.

 

14. Vaccines for Korean Soldiers Arrive from U.S.                                              

english.chosun.com · June 7, 2021

And we have seen erroneous tweets on twitter about this saying that it is sanctions that prevent vaccines going to the north and the US is "weaponizing vaccines" such as this one:

 

Nodutdol | 노둣돌

@nodutdol

US troops were the 1st in South Korea to get vaccinated

 

US sanctions are keeping vaccines from North Korea.

 

Now the US sends 1 million Syringe—for South Korean troops. The US is weaponizing vaccines as part of the unfinished Korean War

 

---------------------

 

 

“A man who has the knowledge but lacks the power clearly to express it is no better off than if he never had any ideas at all.”

 - Thucydides, The History of the Peloponnesian War

 

“Judge a man by his questions rather than by his answers.”

- Voltaire

 

" ...there was no point in seeking to convert the intellectuals. For intellectuals would never be converted and would anyway always yield to the stronger, 'and this will always be the man in the street.' Arguments must therefore be crude, clear and forcible, and appeal to emotions and instincts, not the intellect. Truth was unimportant and entirely subordinate to tactics and psychology...Hatred and contempt must be directed at particular individuals.   

- H. Trevor-Roper (ed), The Goebbels Diaries