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07/12/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Sun, 07/12/2020 - 10:42am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Paik Sun-yup, South Korea's First Four-Star General, Dies at 99

2. How the dramatic death of Seoul's mayor left a country divided

3. Fire Visible From China Destroys Train and Warehouse at North Korean Station

4.  North Korea chaos: Kim Jong-un humiliated as major disaster visible from China

5. North Korea Sends 30 Pyongyang Families of Missing Overseas Workers Into Internal Exile

6.  North Korea denounces UK for sanctions on organizations accused of links to prison camps

7. North Korea Says U.K. Will 'Pay' for Sanctions Against It

8. The Korean Grind Duo That Raged Against Two Corrupt Machines

9. S. Korea, US could suspend again joint drills: sources

10. Korea to require foreigners arriving from high-risk nations to submit proof of negative virus test

11. Political controversy erupts over mourning Seoul mayor's passing

12. New virus cases rebound; imported cases, cluster infections on steady rise

13. Commentary: Another Trump-Kim summit will achieve little yet again

 

1. Paik Sun-yup, South Korea's First Four-Star General, Dies at 99

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · July 11, 2020

Note the discussion of his service in the Japanese military.  He was born 15 years after Japan occupied Korea (10 years after the official date of 1910).  He was 17 when Japan invaded China.  Yes, he attended a Japanese military school and served in the Japanese army. He likely did not have a choice.  His family, like many others, were trying to survive the Japanese occupation. And it is obvious he put his military training to good use in 1950 and beyond.  

Most who want to treat him as a collaborator are also north Korean apologists.  I think when people are making accusations against General Paik they should remember how much he has done for Korea, unlike Kim Il-sung. Kim was a soldier in the Soviet Red Army who called himself a guerrilla leader.  He commanded the 88th special independent sniper brigade and conducted one known and very minor operation during all of World War II.  He spent the war mostly hiding out because he was not a capable military leader.  Most importantly he did liberate Korea.  All he was good at was  political  manipulation, creating the myths of north  Korea  and developing the most oppressive ruling regime in the modern era and of course he has the blood of more than 1 million Koreans on his hands because he alone started the Korean War.  If it were not for Paik Sun-yup and Koreans like him there would be no free and prosperous Republic of Korea today.

Korean independence fighters in the South also deserve to be honored.  It is not a contradiction to honor them both.  But Kim Il-sung was not one of those freedom fighters.  He and his guerrilla band had no intention of developing a free and prosperous Korea only establishing a brutal that would oppress the Korean people while he held all the power.

I hope South Korea will do the right thing and honor his decades of selfless service for the good of Korea.  He has certainly given more and sacrificed more than anyone in the Moon administration has or ever will do.  I hope he is given the respect he deserves.

 

2. How the dramatic death of Seoul's mayor left a country divided

CNN · by Yoonjung Seo and Julia Hollingsworth, CNN

Korea seems to be focusing on this man's death rather than on honoring General Paik's life.

 

3. Fire Visible From China Destroys Train and Warehouse at North Korean Station

rfa.org – Reported by Joonho Kim for RFA's Korean Service. Translated by Leejin Jun. Written in English by Eugene Whong -10 July 2020

This is an example of the important reporting RFA and VOA does to get this kind of news to the Korean people living in the north.  You know this is not likely being report by north Korean media or it is it will be spun appropriately for protect the reputation of the regime.

Of course, this begs the questions: Was this an accident?  Was it due to party/government incompetence?  Was is deliberate sabotage?  Is this an indication? 

 

4. North Korea chaos: Kim Jong-un humiliated as major disaster visible from China

Express · by Paul Withers · July 11, 2020

This is an interesting spin on the RFA report of this incident.  RFA reports the facts.  Others take the facts and add "interesting" interpretations.

 

5. North Korea Sends 30 Pyongyang Families of Missing Overseas Workers Into Internal Exile

rfa.org - Reported by Sewon Kim for RFA's Korean Service. Translated by Leejin Jun. Written in English by Eugene Whong – 10 July 2020

Again, this is the important kind of reporting by RFA and VOA.  This news is not being reported to the Korean people living in the north by the north Korean media.  The people do not know how the human rights of these families are being abused.  RFA and VOA provide reporting that no other media can do.

 

6. North Korea denounces UK for sanctions on organizations accused of links to prison camps

Reuters · by Joyce Lee · July 11, 2020

This is another important example of why we need to spend more time talking about human rights and less time talking about nuclear weapons.  Human rights undermine the legitimacy of the regime and is a direct threat to Kim Jong-un.  Talking about nuclear weapons enhances regime legitimacy.

The UK is making an important contribution to maximum pressure here.

 

7. North Korea Says U.K. Will 'Pay' for Sanctions Against It

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · July 11, 2020

Again, the UK focus on human rights is a threat to Kim Jong-un.

 

8. The Korean Grind Duo That Raged Against Two Corrupt Machines

Vice · by Junhyup Kwon

A view of a part of Korea and Korea politics and culture that we really read about in mainstream of Korean English media.  I will be interested in responses from my friends in Korea.

 

9. S. Korea, US could suspend again joint drills: sources

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · July 12, 2020

Note the controversy over readiness for the defense of South Korea versus the full operational capability assessment for OPCON Transition.  This why what OPCON transition must be conditions based on not timeline based.  Readiness must take precedence.  However, both may very well be trumped by the coronavirus threat to the health of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command.  I would rather forgo the exercise and maintain the health of the members of the command because the longer-term impact of a potential massive outbreak of the coronavirus within the command could be quite significant.  Commanders are going to have to find other ways to train to ensure everyone knows the defense plans without consolidating the headquarters in a single bunker and risk exposure of a large number of key leaders and staff.

 

10. Korea to require foreigners arriving from high-risk nations to submit proof of negative virus test

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · July 12, 2020

Yes, Korea is experiencing a rise in infections with arriving foreigners.  The problem with this is that proof of a negative test only proves you were negative at the time the test was administered.  A person can become infected after the test and be asymptomatic but still spread the virus.  But this will have some impact as it will likely deter some travelers especially those who do have access to test or who can get test results in a timely manner (such as in the US which is obviously one of the high risk nations based on the data).

 

11. Political controversy erupts over mourning Seoul mayor's passing

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · July 12, 2020

This overshadows the passing of General Paik.

 

12. New virus cases rebound; imported cases, cluster infections on steady rise

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · July 12, 2020

It is going to take sustained vigilance by the government and the people to deal with this virus.  As long as there is no vaccine and no likelihood of developing herd immunity it is going to take the hard work of public health processes to manage this crisis.  And I think it is going to have to shift from crisis management to living in a "new normal."  Things may never be the same again - or as the Talking Heads say it will never be "the same as it ever was." (Once in a Lifetime)

 

13. Commentary: Another Trump-Kim summit will achieve little yet again

channelnewsasia.com – by Robert E. Kelly – 12 July 2020

North Korea is justified?  A summit will achieve little if there are no substantive working level talks to produce an agreement to take to the two leaders.  But he is right as to whether a summit would achieve anything. It would not and if we had to make concessions such as lifting sanctions just to have a meeting (which is the required condition just for Kim to show up) we would do more harm than good.

I really tire of the blame the US for not making concessions (to be fair he says both sides have not made concessions - but I would expect the Professor to recall the history of making concessions with north Korea and how masterful the regime is at getting something for nothing).  The reason for failure lies on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un alone.  He is the one who refuses to negotiate (and I would not characterize the recent history as the past 2 years of negotiations - there have been no substantive negotiations - review the reporting on the two sessions in Sweden in January and October of 2019. - Review the reporting on the "negotiations" in the run-up to Hanoi - review the history of the South trying to act as a go-between mediator).  There have not been 2 years of negotiations.  There have been some talks and meetings, but the north has refused to do the hard work of substantive negotiations to reach a real agreement.

But for all those who want to lift sanctions, I ask again what behavior by Kim Jong-un do you want to condone?  Continued nuclear weapons and missile testing, production, deployment, and proliferation?  Continued illicit activities around the world? Continue cyber-attacks around the world? Continued proliferation of conventional weapons and training and advisory services to conflict areas and to America's adversaries? Continued employment of slave labor around the world? And most importantly, continued human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north?  Should Kim get a pass on the gulags and the Songbun system of political and cultural oppression?

 

"Everybody wants to defend speech they agree with., only the truly principled will defend the speech of someone to say something they disagree with and hate to listen or read." - Cal Weyers

 

"Any fool can know. The point is to understand."

- Albert Einstein

 

Victor Hugo was a master of figurative language, including the use of oxymoronic and paradoxical phrasing, chiastic constructions, and, of course, vivid metaphorical images. Here are ten of his best:

"Toleration is the best religion."

"Thought is the labor of the intellect."

"The malicious have a dark happiness."

"Melancholy is the pleasure of being sad."

"To rise  from error to truth is rare and beautiful."

"A compliment is something like a kiss through a veil."

""Laughter is the sun which drives winter from the human face."

"One can resist the invasion of armies;

one cannot resist the invasion of ideas."

"It is the essence of truth that it is never excessive . . .

We must not resort to the flame where only light is required."

"There are thoughts which are prayers.

There are moments when, whatever the posture of the body,

the soul is on its knees."

07/11/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Sat, 07/11/2020 - 11:54am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Trump confirms, in an interview, a U.S. cyberattack on Russia

2. The US Needs a Global Coalition to Defeat COVID

3. The Defense Bill Could Rewrite How the US Does Cyber Defense

4. China is rewriting the rules for its own ends - the world cannot sit idly by

5. Risk of Great Power Conflict in South China Sea is Rising, Experts Say

6. USAGM Is Reviewing Journalist Visas For Compliance With U.S. Law; Countered NPR Report

7. A racial reckoning arrived at West Point, where being black is a 'beautifully painful experience'

8. Navy's first known Black female fighter pilot graduates

9. China, Hong Kong and the world: is Xi Jinping overplaying his hand?

10. COVID-19: America, China and the Conspiracy War

11. When Companies Wielded the Power of States

12. Six Ways the U.S. Isn't Ready for Wars of the Future

13. Cyber Command's measure of success? Outcomes

14. Missile-Armed Chinese Drones Arrive In Europe As Serbia Seeks Airpower Edge

15. Cultural factors are behind disinformation pandemic: why this matters

16. Perspective | The deadly fallout of disinformation

 

1. Trump confirms, in an interview, a U.S. cyberattack on Russia

The Washington Post – by Marc A. Thiessen – 10 July 2020

I did not expect to read this in print.

 

2.The US Needs a Global Coalition to Defeat COVID

defenseone.com – by Joseph Votel, Samuel J. Locklear III

I concur. With all due respect I think this is a no-brainer.  Given the method of transmission of the virus, the global economy, and global travel (just like interstate travel in the US) the defense against the virus does require a global coalition. The world is not going to contain this effort without international cooperation. Isolated national efforts are not going to be successful as we are currently experiencing.

 

3. The Defense Bill Could Rewrite How the US Does Cyber Defense

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Office of Joint Cyber Planning (OJCP). I wonder how "joe" will figure out how to pronounce that acronym.

 

4. China is rewriting the rules for its own ends - the world cannot sit idly by

From an Administration (DOD) official.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3092490/china-rewriting-rules-its-own-ends-world-cannot-sit-idly - by David F. Helvey – 11 July 2020

 

5. Risk of Great Power Conflict in South China Sea is Rising, Experts Say

rfa.org – by Drake Long – 10 July 2020

What comes next?  What happens when there is a conflict and it escalates?  Are we prepared?

 

6. USAGM Is Reviewing Journalist Visas For Compliance With U.S. Law; Countered NPR Report

bbgwatch.com · by Tim Shamble · July 9, 2020

A response to the NPR report about canceling J1 visas of our foreign correspondents at VOA, RFA, etc.  

You cannot argue with doing due diligence to ensure there are no violations of the law.  There apparently will not be a wholesale cancellation of visas for our great foreign journalists.

However, this can and likely will still be interpreted as a veiled threat that might be intended to influence reporting (whether intentional or not it likely will be interpreted that way).

 

7. A racial reckoning arrived at West Point, where being black is a 'beautifully painful experience'

The Washington Post – by Alex Horton – 10 July 2020

I still think too many people are in denial about this very real problem.   It is obvious by the actions and statements of senior military leaders this week that they recognize the problem but there seem to be so many who still do not and who use anecdotes and statistics to rationalize the problem.

 

8. Navy's first known Black female fighter pilot graduates

The Hill · by Alicia Cohn · July 10, 2020

Wow.  I would have thought this milestone had been reached long ago.

 

9. China, Hong Kong and the world: is Xi Jinping overplaying his hand?

Financial Times · by James Kynge · July 10, 2020

I certainly hope so.  If so, what can we do about it? How do we exploit it?

Or do we simply follow Napoleon and never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake (yes that is one of my favorite dictums). 

 

10. COVID-19: America, China, and the Conspiracy War

thecairoreview.com · by Amanda Tapp · July 5, 2020

I just do not see US-Chinese cooperation on much of anything in the future but of all issues and problems it should have been to cooperate on the global pandemic caused by COVID-19 or the novel coronavirus or as the Chinese Global Times and Xinhua called it in January until the Chinese Communist Party made them change the name: the Wuhan Virus and the Wuhan Pneumonia. (just saying).   We see a crisis that must be addressed. I fear the CCP sees opportunity in crisis.

 

11. When Companies Wielded the Power of States

WSJ · by Andrew Phillips and J.C. Sharman

An interesting history in the Wall Street Journal.  And yes, this should be a cautionary tale: "But history should make us cautious. Whenever corporations have straddled the public-private divide, they have ruthlessly exploited the confusion to dodge accountability, undermine sovereignty, worsen international tensions and fleece governments and investors." 

 

12. Six Ways the U.S. Isn't Ready for Wars of the Future

Bloomberg · by James Stavridis · July 10, 2020

A sober warning from the former SACEUR and former SOUTHCOM Commander.  The ABC's of combat is an interesting perspective.

And because of my personal bias note his comments on Special Forces (though i am sure he means special operations forces, though the largest formation of operators in SOF is Special Forces).  His emphasis is currently on the human domain and though he does not explicitly say it on the two SOF trinities of irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare with the comparative advantages of SOF capabilities of influence, governance, and support to indigenous forces and populations.

 

13. Cyber Command's measure of success? Outcomes

c4isrnet.com · by Mark Pomerleau · July 10, 2020

Yes, outcomes.  Too often measures of "effectiveness" are actually measures of performance. (e.g, money spent, projects conducted, targets "serviced," attacks conducted, attacks stopped (which is always an important thing!) or my favorite: number of troops committed or number of troops in theater or a specific country.)

 

14. Missile-Armed Chinese Drones Arrive In Europe As Serbia Seeks Airpower Edge

Forbes · by Sebastien Roblin · July 9, 2020

The Balkans beware.

 

15. Cultural factors are behind disinformation pandemic: why this matters

theconversation.com · by Herman Wasserman

Yes, culture matters.

I am reminded of this from Keegan: "War embraces much more than politics: it is always an expression of culture, often a determinant of cultural forms, in some societies the culture itself." -John Keegan in A History of Warfare

 

16.  Perspective | The deadly fallout of disinformation

The Washington Post – by Calder Walton

Another useful historical perspective as food for thought. Of course some will take issues with some of the criticisms of the current administration but this statement is something we should all understand: "Today's social media landscape makes it quicker, easier and cheaper to spread disinformation than the KGB ever could." 

 

"Everybody wants to defend speech they agree with., only the truly principled will defend the speech of someone to say something they disagree with and hate to listen or read."

- Cal Weyers

"The things you're looking for, Montag, are in the world, but the only way the average chap will ever see ninety-nine percent of them is in a book."
- Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451
"Thanks to my reading, I have never been caught flat-footed by any situation, never at a loss for how any problem has been addressed (successfully or unsuccessfully) before. It doesn't give me all the answers, but it lights what is often a dark path ahead."

- General James Mattis

07/11/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Sat, 07/11/2020 - 11:13am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. S. Korea, U.S. may cancel summertime combined exercise due to COVID-19: sources

2. Otto Warmbier's Parents Chase North Korean Assets in Eastern Europe

3.  WORDS OF WARNING Kim Jong-un's powerful sister makes chilling threat to Donald Trump saying 'North Korea will never stop building nukes'

4. Kim Jong Un Is Taking a Hard Pass on a Third Summit With Trump

5. US envoy, after Seoul visit, reassures Japan of alliance

6. 'Virus Free' North Korea Fires Health Officials for Quarantine Failures

7.  North Korea asks for 'sacrifices' as coronavirus concerns rise

8. N.K.'s newspaper says anti-virus efforts more important than economic achievements

9. North Korea gearing up for hard times

10. North Korea's Chemical and Coal Liquefaction Industries: The Difficult Path Ahead to Self-Reliance

11. Rich Phone Brokers Caught in North Korean Crackdown Escape Harsh Sentences

12. Over 500 Coronavirus Deaths Suspected in N.Korea

13. Inside Korea's Weird New Infowar

14. S. Korea reports 35 new virus cases, number down for 4th straight day

15. Four lessons New York learned from COVID-19 crisis (A South Korean Assessment)

16. Mayor's case shows scale of South Korea sexism: activists

 

1. S. Korea, U.S. may cancel summertime combined exercise due to COVID-19: sources

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 11, 2020

We should not be surprised.  The commanders are going to have to weigh the benefits and the risk to the force.  Yes, we need to train.  However, if there is an outbreak among the entire ROK/US Combined Forces Command staff it will have a debilitating effect on more than readiness.  We do not need the combined headquarters to be combat ineffective.

Despite quarantining those coming from off the peninsula to augment the exercises with staff, observers, and controllers, etc., all it would take is one person already on the peninsula to carry the coronavirus into the command post and infect the thousand or so people that will be working there at close quarters for two weeks.

I would not be surprised is the exercise was postponed (if possible as it is a logistical, scheduling, and financial nightmare to do) if the commanders deem the risk of infection of the combined headquarters to be too high.  We would be more ready if everyone did a staff review of all the defense plans without being able to conduct an exercise than we would if a significant number of the of the commanders and staff became infected and a percentage of them suffer from debilitating effects over time.

 

2. Otto Warmbier's Parents Chase North Korean Assets in Eastern Europe

voanews.com – by Kim Young-gyo, Eunjung Cho – 10 July 2020

Despite the horrible tragedy the Warmbiers have suffered they are doing important work.  And they are not doing this really for personal gain. They are doing it to try to punish the evil Kim family regime and Kim Jong-un.  As Greg Scarlatoiu notes the Warmbiers are going after the two things Kim Jong-un cares about: the pocketbook and international legitimacy. If the parents of a murdered child can do this and achieve some success imagine what a concerted effort by a coalition of like-minded governments could do around the world to target the regime's illicit activities. 

 

3. WORDS OF WARNING Kim Jong-un's powerful sister makes chilling threat to Donald Trump saying 'North Korea will never stop building nukes'

The Sun · by Tariq Tahir · July 10, 2020

It is interesting to read reports of the same events and statements from different news sources and they interpret the same statements and focus on such different aspects, some more sensational and others that might support certain agendas. Of course, sometimes it is just the different headline editors and what they chose to focus on and emphasize.

 

4. Kim Jong Un Is Taking a Hard Pass on a Third Summit With Trump

Vice · by Greg Walters

The understanding everyone needs to take from these various interpretations of Kim Yo-jong's and regime statements is that it is Kim Jong-un who refuses to allow negotiations.  The US has never said no to negotiations and has always been ready and will be ready should the regime decide to conduct substantive working level negotiations.  Of course, summits are a different story.  Kim cannot have a summit unless he is guaranteed to receive sanctions relief - he cannot afford another failed summit.  And I do not think any US president should ever meet with a Kim until there have been working level negotiations that conclude an agreement for the leaders' approval.

 

5. US envoy, after Seoul visit, reassures Japan of alliance

The Washington Post · by Mari Yamaguchi | AP

Korea is the linchpin and Japan is the cornerstone to our alliance system in Northeast Asia.  But the focus of this article on Kim Yo-jong's Friday statement.

 

6. 'Virus Free' North Korea Fires Health Officials for Quarantine Failures

rfa.org – by Hyemin Son - 9 July 2020

Another indication that the virus may be in the north.  But I hope these are not the Anthony Fauci equivalents.

 

7. North Korea asks for 'sacrifices' as coronavirus concerns rise

upi.com – by Elizabeth Shim – 10 July 2020

Another indicator.  And I am sure the regime is very concerned.

 

8. N.K.'s newspaper says anti-virus efforts more important than economic achievements

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 10, 2020

I really wonder what the assessments of the intelligence communities in the ROK and US are.  I have to believe there is an outbreak in the north.

 

9. North Korea gearing up for hard times

nkeconwatch.com – by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein -

Hard times coming.  We have had our own hard time (See this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1yE932Vngw_ ) but as tough as they were for us  I think they are exponentially worse in the north.

The north went through hard times in 1994-1996.  I fear it could be worse this time because of how the Korean people evolved and developing coping mechanisms and resilience when the party could no longer provide for them.  And of course the regime was helped immensely during the the Sunshine and Peace and Prosperity Policy period when hundreds of millions of dollars were transferred to the regime (that ended up helping to fund the nuclear weapons program).  But the people survived because when the Public Distribution System (PDS) broke down and failed to provide they turned to the balck market and developed a market economy with more than 400 markets today.  These markets are dependent on cross border trade, smuggling, foreign currency, and communications (cell phones) and transportation (the serv-cha).  See this article about Yonho KIm's research here https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/hrnk-kim-yonho-03192019174215.html

The problem now is that because of the coronavirus the regime has closed off the borders to most legal trade and smuggling.  It is cracking down on foriegn currency. It is cracking down on information flow. It is preventing the movement of people and goods. All of the market characteristics and functions that have helped the people cope and survive are being halted by the regime as part of its draconian population and resources control measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.  It is also using the excuse of the coronavirus to crack down to further control the population.   In addition because of existing sanctions South Korea is constrained from executing a sunshine Policy 2.0.

The combination of these conditions means, like the title says, hard times are coming.

 

10. North Korea's Chemical and Coal Liquefaction Industries: The Difficult Path Ahead to Self-Reliance

HTTPS://WWW.38NORTH.ORG/2020/07/BKATZEFFSILBERSTEIN070920/ - by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein – 9 July 2020

As the previous article said and Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein wrote, hard times are coming.

 

11. Rich Phone Brokers Caught in North Korean Crackdown Escape Harsh Sentences

rfa.org – by Jieun Kim

Obviously, the corruption aspect of this is important.

But what is more important is how important the cell phone network is and recognition by the regime that it is a real vulnerability to its control.  This is why we should be devising plans to exploit the internal cell phone network and the 6.5 million smart phones in the north.  It could be an achilles heel of the regime.

 

12. Over 500 Coronavirus Deaths Suspected in N.Korea

english.chosun.com – 10 July 2020

This is still unconfirmed, but I think it is very plausible.  And if this spreads to the military we could see very tough times ahead in terms of instability.

 

13. Inside Korea's Weird New Infowar

https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-koreas-weird-new-infowar?ref=scroll – by Donald Kirk – 10 July 2020

A good defense of our escapees who are doing important work trying to get information back in to the north and inform the Korean people in the north about the world and their situation.

Despite all the criticism (and north Korean bellicose rhetoric) it is not their work that hinders north-South relations or will prevent another Kim-Trump summit.  They are the only ones who are really engaged in doing something substantive to help the Korean people living in the north (yes there are NGOs who try their best to provide humanitarian aid but it is information that is key to the people's future and especially in preparation for eventual unification - and yes VOA and RFA are doing critically important work as well).

And yes, there is criticism of the Moon administration in this. as well. It is interesting how Mr. Park characterizes the administration as having the Stockholm syndrome with "the affection that those who are abused may feel for those abusing them."  The Kim family regime is most certainly the abuser in this relationship.  We should never forget that Kim Jong-un is an abusive partner who will not and cannot change.

 

14. S. Korea reports 35 new virus cases, number down for 4th straight day

en.yna.co.kr · by 김광태 · July 11, 2020

Some good news.  South Korea's efforts to contain this must be studied and learned from.

 

15. Four lessons New York learned from COVID-19 crisis (A South Korean Assessment)

donga.com – by Yong Park – 11 July 2020

 

16. Mayor's case shows scale of South Korea sexism: activists

sg.news.yahoo.com · July 10, 2020

But it will be sad to see the Mayor's situation and funeral overshadow the death of General Paik.

 

"Everybody wants to defend speech they agree with., only the truly principled will defend the speech of someone to say something they disagree with, and hate to listen or read."

- Cal Weyers

"The things you're looking for, Montag, are in the world, but the only way the average chap will ever see ninety-nine percent of them is in a book."
- Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451
"Thanks to my reading, I have never been caught flat-footed by any situation, never at a loss for how any problem has been addressed (successfully or unsuccessfully) before. It doesn't give me all the answers, but it lights what is often a dark path ahead."

- General James Mattis

Women, Peace, and Security

Thu, 07/09/2020 - 3:58pm

Practicing What We Preach: Committing to the Women, Peace, and Security Strategy Here at Home

realcleardefense.com · by Mackenzie Eaglen

Rep. Mike Waltz is stepping up.  

Mackenzie Eaglen makes a key point here: "But in order to increase policymaker engagement, there must first be awarenessDespite its history, the Women, Peace and Security agenda is hardly an issue that the American public engages with frequently or passionately."  I was made aware of these efforts some years ago by my good friend Robert Egnell from Sweden who is one of the few men to work on these issues. He now heads the Swedish National Defense University (he is the rector).

The Political Logic of China's Strategic Mistakes

Thu, 07/09/2020 - 3:53pm

 The Political Logic of China's Strategic Mistakes

project-syndicate.org · by Minxin Pei · July 8, 2020

I certainly hope China keeps making mistakes.  But this is quite an assessment.  Yes, Minxin Pei says the problems stem from over-concentration of power in Xi's hands but adds this: "a more important reason for the Chinese government's self-destructive policies: the mindset of the Communist Party of China (CPC)."  He goes on to provide a description

 

 

7/9/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Thu, 07/09/2020 - 9:50am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. FBI Opens a China-Related Counterintelligence Investigation Every 10 Hours

2. The Political Logic of China's Strategic Mistakes

3. China's Confucius Institutes Attempt to Rebrand Following Backlash

4. China challenges U.S. to cut nuclear arsenal to matching level

5. Seven Candidates Battling for WTO Leadership

6. Opinion | How Trump is losing Asia

7. Election Experts Warn of November Disaster

8. Practicing What We Preach: Committing to the Women, Peace, and Security Strategy Here at Home

9. Diversity is America's Untapped Competitive Edge

10. Is free speech under threat from 'cancel culture'? Four writers respond

11. A global strategy for shaping the post-COVID-19 world

12. Army Was Reviewing More Than Confederate Base Names, Officials Reveal

13. Want Better Strategists? Start With a Better Definition of Strategy

14. History Shows That Sustained, Disruptive Protests Work

15. Trump Pushed CIA to Give Intelligence to Kremlin, While Taking No Action Against Russia Arming Taliban

16. Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong?

17. The Limits of Intuition: Army Intelligence Should Embrace Analytic Tradecraft Standards

18. The U.S. Is Trying to Turn China Into the Next Iran

 

1. FBI Opens a China-Related Counterintelligence Investigation Every 10 Hours

defenseone.com · by Frank R. Konkel· July 8, 2020

That is a jarring statistic to me.  When does the FBI have any time to investigate the cases?  We have seen the reports of China pressing hard to obtain information from our universities and research institutions to help with the pandemic.

 

2. The Political Logic of China's Strategic Mistakes

project-syndicate.org · by Minxin Pei · July 8, 2020

I certainly hope China keeps making mistakes.  But this is quite an assessment.  Yes Minxin Pei says the problems stem from over-concentration of power in Xi's hands but adds this: "a more important reason for the Chinese government's self-destructive policies: the mindset of the Communist Party of China (CPC)."  He goes on to provide a description of the CPC (CCP) world view and what it means.

 

3. China's Confucius Institutes Attempt to Rebrand Following Backlash

National Review Online · by Zachary Evans · July 8, 2020

No amount of rebranding should be able to remove the subversion and propaganda stick of the Chinese Communist Party.

 

4. China challenges U.S. to cut nuclear arsenal to matching level

Reuters · by Yew Lun Tian · July 8, 2020

I suppose 300 or so nuclear weapons is still enough to destroy the world.  But all this means is that China has no intention of participating because they know the US is not going to agree to the kind of demand or condition for negotiation. 

 

5. Seven Candidates Battling for WTO Leadership

english.chosun.com  · July 9, 2020

 

6. Opinion | How Trump is losing Asia

The Washington Post · by  Robert D. Kaplan

This is one of the strongest critiques of our policies and actions in Asia.  He provides these two critical conclusions: " What is now tethering the United States' Asian allies to Washington is less confidence in the United States than outright fear of China" and "It is all about geography: China's very size and proximity make a sturdy and unquestioning U.S. regional order essential for the power balance in Asia."  We need our alliance system.  We need the right trade agreements.  We need forward presence.  We need engagement with our friends, partners, and allies.  We need to demonstrate strategic reassurance and strategic resolve.

 

7. Election Experts Warn of November Disaster

defenseone.com · by Matt Vasilogamrbos

We should learn from the primary experiences this year.

The federal, state, and local governments, along with every election official and both the Republican and Democratic parties must do everything within their power, expend all necessary resources, and implement all the correct safeguards to ensure the absolute legitimacy of our election process.  to do anything less is the height of irresponsibility.  Our election process is under attack from outside and from within and it will take an integrated national, state, and local effort to defend against those threats.  To do anything less than our best is to undermine our federal democratic republic and our democratic processes.


8. Practicing What We Preach: Committing to the Women, Peace, and Security Strategy Here at Home

realcleardefense.com · by Mackenzie Eaglen

Rep. Mike Waltz is stepping up.  

Mackenzie Eaglen makes a key point here: "But in order to increase policymaker engagement, there must first be awarenessDespite its history, the Women, Peace and Security agenda is hardly an issue that the American public engages with frequently or passionately."  I was made aware of these efforts some years ago by my good friend Robert Egnell from Sweden who is one of the few men to work on these issues. He now heads the Swedish National Defense University (he is the rector).

 

9. Diversity is America's Untapped Competitive Edge

inkstickmedia.com · by Laicie Heeley · July 8, 2020

Perhaps we should think of diversity as joint-ness.  Joint-ness does not equal sameness.  We bring the incredible capabilities of the joint force together to fight and win.  We need to bring together the diverse capabilities of Americans to support our national security.

This article also critiques our broker human capital system and the security clearance process.  And this author concludes with this important statement: "This isn't a partisan issue - it is a national security imperative. Not only because it's right or fair, but because diverse teams are smarter, faster, and more innovative - in other words, better."

 

10. Is free speech under threat from 'cancel culture'? Four writers respond

The Guardian · by Nesrine Malik · July 8, 2020

The Harper's letter did have a lot of interesting signatories. The letter can be accessed here: https://harpers.org/a-letter-on-justice-and-open-debate/. It has stirred up quite a bit of controversy.

 Below is some critical food for thought in response to the letter.

 

11. A global strategy for shaping the post-COVID-19 world

atlanticcouncil.org · July 7, 2020

The graphic at the end asks and answers the question of why save a rules based order? 

 

12. Army Was Reviewing More Than Confederate Base Names, Officials Reveal

defenseone.com · by Kate Bo Williams

Was the Army thwarted from doing the right thing by a tweet?

 

13. Want Better Strategists? Start With a Better Definition of Strategy

realcleardefense.com · by Jeffrey Meiser and Patrick Quirk

I am surprised the authors do not reference the late Terry Deibel of the National War College and his seminal work on strategy. (see chapter one of his book Foreign Affairs Strategy, Chapter 1 Introduction - Defining Strategy:  )

But they are right that there is not a commonly accepted definition of strategy

 

14. History Shows That Sustained, Disruptive Protests Work

YES! Magazine · by Kevin A. Young

We are at an inflection point in US history. We just had the largest civil protests in our history.  Can those protests be turned into positive change?

Some interesting analysis below to which I am sure many will take exception.  But it is important to understand the author's thesis in today's context when there are some reports of polling that shows a majority of Americans actually support many of the goals of the protests (though some of those goals cause hard push back from some of the partisan tribes in the US).

 

15. Trump Pushed CIA to Give Intelligence to Kremlin, While Taking No Action Against Russia Arming Taliban

justsecurity.org · by Ryan Goodman · July 8, 2020

 

16.  Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong?

Foreign Affairs · by Michael Green and Evan Medeiros · July 8, 2020

I certainly hope not. I think it could cause conflict.  This situation should be different in that despite its ejection from the UN and the One China Policy, Taiwan is de facto a sovereign state or at least it is more sovereign than Hong Kong ever was.  But as the authors note China seems to be more willing to take risks.

 

17. The Limits of Intuition: Army Intelligence Should Embrace Analytic Tradecraft Standards

warontherocks.com · by James Kwoun · July 8, 2020

I would add Clausewitz' concept of coup d'oeil (and the inward looking eye!) which is based on education and experience that allow commanders to make decisions in the fog and friction of war with less than perfect information.  As he said: "When all is said and done, it really is the commander's coup d'œil, his ability to see things simply, to identify the whole business of war completely with himself, that is the essence of good generalship." 

 

18. The U.S. Is Trying to Turn China Into the Next Iran

Bloomberg · by Eli Lake · July 9, 2020

The title is clickbait. But I think the subtitle sums it up. 

 

-----------------

 

"I've spent the last 25 years studying genocide. I've learned that the belief that human society is perfectible through the zealous application of ideology tends not to end well."

- Alex Bellamy

 

"When proven wrong, the wise man will correct himself and the ignorant will keep arguing."

- Ali ibn Abi Talib

 

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, conn a ship, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve an equation, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." 

- Robert Heinlein

 

07/09/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Thu, 07/09/2020 - 7:51am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. FDD | New South Korean National Security Team Has Close Ties to Pyongyang

2. South Koreans Angry at North Korean YouTubers"

3.  The Ethical and Strategic Problem of North Korean Workers Abroad

4. New satellite imagery shows activity at suspected North Korean nuclear facility

5. Wollo-ri Nuclear Facility

6. North Korea nuclear programme: Seoul hopes Trump can learn the art of the 'small deal'

7. S. Koreans Have 3rd-Most Powerful Passports in the World

8. U.S. envoy plays down expectations for North Korea meet, but ready to talk

9. North Korea's Terminology Deception Tactics: The Word "Democracy" as Explained by Former Public Security Prosecutor Koh Young-ju

10. New US-North Korea talks still off the table

11. Disruption and Realignment Are Necessary for Peace in Korea

12. How Do Unification Politics Thwart Ending the Korean War?

13. In Seoul, Biegun says U.S. supports inter-Korean efforts: Deputy secretary of state makes clear he doesn't obey North or Bolton

14. U.S. "strongly supports" S. Korea-DPRK cooperation: U.S. nuke envoy

15. U.S. sees importance of North Korea talks despite tension, South says

16. Esper again says N. Korea and Iran are 'rogue states'

17. Source: "Nuclear facility" in Pyongyang is just a school

18. N. Korea increases number of guard posts in Hyesan

19. N. Korean military orders soldiers to "breed more rabbits"

20. S. Korea's virus infections slightly decline, but spread continues beyond capital

21. S. Korea to spend big on development of COVID-19 vaccine, drug

 

1. FDD | New South Korean National Security Team Has Close Ties to Pyongyang

fdd.org · by David Maxwell Senior Fellow · July 8, 2020

 

2. South Koreans Angry at North Korean YouTubers"

Note from a journalist friend: 

North Korea is using YouTube in its propaganda against the US and South Korea.

North Korean government is allegedly using YouTube to create an impression that life in North Korea is normal despite coronavirus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ce0I3zYH4fM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4g-MMPGNLY&t=36s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ce0I3zYH4fM

I have watched this YouTube channel.  Pretty slick videos.  north Korea is entering the 21st Century information age.  And of course these videos are going to appeal to the younger generations who get their news from YouTube, I had a long discussion with my daughter about the YouTube viewing habits of college students.  She showed me a list of news sites where many young people get their news which is filtered through a YouTube personality. (Some of it is way better than Fox and CNN and MSNBC).  But young people will go to this north Korean YouTube channel and be influenced to believe north Korea is an okay country that is just misunderstood and treated badly by the outside world.

As I look through the comments section it is obvious there are people watching these videos who have no idea of the evil nature of the Kim family regime and the human rights atrocities that are committed against the Korean people living in the north.  Their comments reveal they are getting a positive view of the north without any critical analysis.  Again, north Korea is operating in the information age trying to influence external audiences through one of the largest platforms in the cyber domain while at the same time cutting off its own people from all outside information.

This is why the US Agency for Global Media, and Radio Free Asia and Voice of America are so important. The Korean people in the north need the news and information provided by RFA and VOA.  But we need a more comprehensive information and influence strategy that goes beyond RFA and VOA (we need them to simply execute their mission within their charter).  We need the USAGM's Open Technology Fund to invest in capabilities to break down the north Korean cyber firewall and allow penetration of the north's intranet and as well as the internal cell phone network consisting of some 6.5 million smart phones.  We need get technology and software solutions to the Korean people in the north so they can have access to the full range of information and truth about the outside world as well the knowledge of universal human rights and how their own human rights are being violated by the despotic regime that is the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that seeks to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
   
We have proposed elements of an information and influence strategy in the final chapter of this report, Maximum Pressure 2.0A Plan for North Korea, at this
link.

 

3.  The Ethical and Strategic Problem of North Korean Workers Abroad

HRNK  · Haley Noah · July 7, 2020

Little is known about north Korean workers abroad.  This essay provides some useful background.  Note the loopholes in the UN Security Council resolutions.  These workers are an important source of revenue for the Kim family regime.  This is an ethical and national security issue as not only are these people virtually slaves for the regime, their work contributes to the survival of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime.

Belowis a message from my friend and colleague who is the Executive Directive of HRNK.  I will continue to send these essays from our young professionals.

Please remember Kathy Chi.

 

Dear Colleague,

These are trying times. Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), including HRNK, are fighting hard to stay afloat. And there is always opportunity in crisis. This summer, HRNK has seen a record number of highly qualified candidates apply for our internship program. Our intern team is larger than usual. Our interns bring unmatched enthusiasm and desire for positive change to the field of North Korean human rights.

This summer, HRNK has initiated a Young Professionals' Writing Program (YPWP). Articles authored by young scholars who have offered to volunteer for HRNK are being published under the HRNK YPWP program, on HRNK's NKHiddenGulag blog.

We look forward to receiving your feedback and critique as well as working together on developing these young, bright, and enthusiastic young professionals into North Korean human rights defenders.

HRNK staff members and interns wish to dedicate this program to our colleague Katty Chi. A native of Chile and graduate of the London School of Economics, Katty became a North Korean human rights defender in her early 20s. Katty was chief of international affairs with the North Korea Strategy Center (NKSC) in Seoul from 2010 to 2014 and worked with the Seoul Office of Liberty in North Korea (LinK) from 2019 to 2020. A remarkable member of our small North Korean human rights community, Katty brought inspiration and good humor to all. Katty passed away in Seoul this past May, at the young age of 32. She is survived by her parents and brother living in Chile. With the YPWP series, we endeavor to honor Katty's life and work.

 Greg Scarlatoiu

Executive Director

Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK)

 

4. New satellite imagery shows activity at suspected North Korean nuclear facility

CNN · by Zachary Cohen

Images at the link.  I look forward to the assessments by north Korea nuclear experts.

We should always remember that north Korea is masterful at denial and deception.  They know our satellites (intelligence and commercial) are watching.  We should consider that they are showing us something for a deliberate purpose.  We may be seeing what they want us to see.  The question is what do they not want us to see?  What are we missing?

 

5 Wollo-ri Nuclear Facility

armscontrolwonk.com · by Jeffrey Lewis

Additional analysis on the suspected nuclear site.  Again are they deliberate showing us what they want us to see and the question is what do they not want us to see?  What are we missing?

 

6. North Korea nuclear programme: Seoul hopes Trump can learn the art of the 'small deal'

english.chosun.com· by John Power · July 9, 2020

A small deal is a bad deal.  A small deal means Kim is successfully executing his "long con" to get sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear program.  A small deal confirms to Kim that blackmail diplomacy continues to work for the regime and we should expect more of it.

 

7. S.Koreans Have 3rd-Most Powerful Passports in the World

english.chosun.com

The buried lead is that north Korea is allowed visa-free travel to 39 countries.  I wonder what are those countries?  And can we get any of them to revoke the north's visa free access?  And since north is also ranked 103 why is it ahead of some 88 other countries?

 

8. U.S. envoy plays down expectations for North Korea meet, but ready to talk

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Josh Smith· July 8, 2020

Mr. Biegun makes it absolutely clear we did not request a meeting with north Korea.

And he rebuked both Choe Son-hui and John Bolton for their "old thinking."

 

9. North Korea's Terminology Deception Tactics: The Word "Democracy" as Explained by Former Public Security Prosecutor Koh Young-ju

eastasiaresearch.org · July 8, 2020

Excellent analysis from Dr. Tara O and Koh Young-ju.  It is imperative we understand this form of psychological operations. Some of the key phrases: 'even communism is a kind of democracy.' 'Communism is proletariat democracy, where the proletariat are the masters, so communism is also a kind of democracy.' 'National Liberation Democratic Revolution' "I am also a democracy," and then "I am the real democracy."

 

10. New US-North Korea talks still off the table

asiatimes.com · by Mitch Shin · July 8, 2020

Note the criticisms of the new national security team just appointed in the Moon administration. 

I would also take excerpts from Bolton's book with a grain of salt.  

 

11. Disruption and Realignment Are Necessary for Peace in Korea

The National Interest · by Scott A. Snyder · July 8, 2020

Scott Snyder provides a very succinct history of the Korean peninsula from post WWII to the present. with an assessment of the current conditions.  He argues the "disruptor in chief" is Kim Jong-un but his goal is not peace but instead survival and power.  I would argue the way he believes he will survive and maintain power is to dominate the peninsula thus he does not seek a peace with South Korea - he seeks unification on his terms and his terms only which means there will no longer be a South Korea.  

 

12. How Do Unification Politics Thwart Ending the Korean War?

The National Interest · by Darcie Draudt · July 8,

In my opinion there is only one major impediment to unification, it is the existence of the Kim Family regime with Kim Jong-un in power.  For Kim it is a zero sum relationship - the north dominates the South.  

Darcie Draudt points out some key challenges with a negotiated peaceful unification to include both sides claiming sovereignty over the entire peninsula. She also assesses the time for German style unification has passed and argues there must be changes in thinking as well as substantial and sustained political will if peaceful unification is to ever happen.

 

13. In Seoul, Biegun says U.S. supports inter-Korean efforts: Deputy secretary of state makes clear he doesn't obey North or Bolton

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

You have to love this sub headline but it is an apparently accurate description of Mr. Biegun's statement: "I also want to be very clear on one point," said Biegun. "I do not take my direction from Vice Minister Choe Son-hui and nor, for that matter, do I take it from Ambassador John Bolton."


14. U.S. "strongly supports" S. Korea-DPRK cooperation: U.S. nuke envoy

xinhuanet.com

A Chinese report on the DEPSECSTATE's visit to Seoul that is simply a rehash of official statements and reports.  But China really wants to emphasize the north-South cooperation because to China (and north Korea) that implies sanctions relief.  Note sanctions relief seems to be carefully omitted in all reports from both the US and South Korean side.

 

15. U.S. sees importance of North Korea talks despite tension, South says

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Josh Smith2 Min Read · July 9, 2020

Again, no mention of sanctions relief by the US and South Korea though it acknowledges that is what north Korea wants and is apparently frustrated there is no sign of possible relief. (nor should there be any sanctions relief until substantive agreements are negotiated and concrete denuclearization actions take place).

 

16. Esper again says N. Korea and Iran are 'rogue states'

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · July 9, 2020

He is reiterating what our National Security and National Defense Strategies say.  The US faces competition and conflict with two revisionist powers (China and Russia) and two rogue powers (who also describe themselves as revolutionary - Iran and north Korea) as well as the continued threat from violent extremist organizations.

 

17. Source: "Nuclear facility" in Pyongyang is just a school

dailynk.com · July 9, 2020

Hmm...This is where you question Daily NK "sources" and wonder about the agenda of Daily NK and who might be exerting influence over it.

 

18. N. Korea increases number of guard posts in Hyesan

dailynk.com · July 9, 2020

The regime is really taking advantage of the coronavirus crisis to be able to crack down on the necessary economic activity and smuggling by the Korea people as well as escape attempts.  This severe border closure is going to have long term implications.  The regime will have greater control while the people's resilience is being eroded.

 

19.  N. Korean military orders soldiers to "breed more rabbits"

dailynk.com · July 9, 2020

Sounds like a chant they would make us say at SERE school - "work harder, work faster, work more "quicklier" - and add to it "breed more rabbits."  One of the things I recall from SERE school three decades ago is that rabbits are not a sufficient source of calories versus the amount of energy it takes to try to trap/catch/kill/prepare a rabbit. Of course a "rabbit breeding craze" might make it more efficient since you do not have to capture the rabbits in the wild.

 

20. S. Korea's virus infections slightly decline, but spread continues beyond capital

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 9, 2020

South Korea is able to manage this through screening upon entry into the country and then effective testing with contact tracing, quarantine, and treatment.  We could learn a thing or two. Note the reason for the numbers - foreign travel coming into the country and cluster outbreaks such as noted with large gatherings such as aat churches.  It should be a warning for all of us.

 

21. S. Korea to spend big on development of COVID-19 vaccine, drug

en.yna.co.kr · by 이준승 · July 9, 2020

I hope this helps to achieve a breakthrough.

 

------------------


"I've spent the last 25 years studying genocide. I've learned that the belief that human society is perfectible through the zealous application of ideology tends not to end well."

- Alex Bellamy

 

"When proven wrong, the wise man will correct himself and the ignorant will keep arguing."

- Ali ibn Abi Talib

 

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, conn a ship, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve an equation, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." 

- Robert Heinlein

7/8/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Wed, 07/08/2020 - 10:14am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Secretary of Defense Mark T. Esper Message to the Force on Accomplishments in Implementation of the National Defense Strategy

2. U.S.-China Tensions Could Lead To Attack on USD Global Reserve Currency Status

3. Learning lessons from World War II and the Cold War

4. FBI chief slams Chinese cyberattacks on U.S., calls it 'one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history'

5. U.S. commander confident Iraq will ask American forces to stay as it confronts militias

6. The Upside of a New Cold War with China

7. Trump administration formally withdraws US from WHO

8. USAGM CEO Michael Pack names James M. Miles, former SC Secretary of State, Acting CEO of Open Technology Fund

9.  Grassley: Senate would 'probably' override Trump veto of defense bill amid base renaming fight

10. Foreign competition: the WTO seeks a new leader

11. FBI: China attacking US in massive campaign including cyber, propaganda, economic espionage and more

12. EXCLUSIVE: Southcom commander describes Chinese and Russian threats in the Americas

13. A Bird? A Plane? No, It's a Google Balloon Beaming the Internet

14. Military's Top Appeals Court to Consider Whether Retirees Can Be Court-Martialed

15. As nine alumni highlight racism at West Point, the academy's IG starts review of 'all matters involving race'

16. US Approves $2b Osprey Aircraft Sale to Indonesia

17. Right-Wing Media Outlets Duped by a Middle East Propaganda Campaign

18. Warfighters in Ivory Towers: Does the US Army Need Officers with Doctoral Degrees?

19. 'The military's #MeToo': In wake of Vanessa Guillén death, servicewomen bear deep scars

20. Opinion | College Courses Online Are Disappointing. Here's How to Fix Them.

21. Raising the age of military enlistment

22. Two Female Airmen Reclassify after Attempting to Complete Special Ops Training

 

1. Secretary of Defense Mark T. Esper Message to the Force on Accomplishments in Implementation of the National Defense Strategy

defense.gov July 7, 2020

As I have written before, I have never seen US senior leaders talk about the National Security and Defense Strategies.  I certainly do not recall any SECDEF providing a SITREP on the implementation of the strategy.

There is video here.

 

2. U.S.-China Tensions Could Lead To Attack On USD Global Reserve Currency Status

seekingalpha.com · by Zoltan Ban · July 7, 2020

We must be very concerned with this and the Administration must make every effort to defend against these attacks.

Note the conclusion.  The author believes that there will be no change in the confrontation with China if Vice President Biden is elected.

 

3. Learning lessons from World War II and the Cold War

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

Yes we should. There is a lot to learn despite the cries that we have not entered a Cold War 2.0.  This sums up the big difference between the Cold War and today in America: "America's grand strategy in the Cold War, embraced by centrist Democrats and centrist Republicans alike, aimed at frustrating Soviet empire-building in the hope, if not conviction, that Communism's internal contradictions would cause it to collapse sooner or later."  Who are the centrists today?  They certainly are not in charge.  Can we unify against external threats when we are so focused on perceived internal threats? 

 

4. FBI chief slams Chinese cyberattacks on U.S., calls it 'one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history'

CNBC · by Amanda Macias · July 8, 2020

And it is only going to get worse.

 

5. U.S. commander confident Iraq will ask American forces to stay as it confronts militias

The Washington Post· by Missy Ryan · July 7, 2020

 

6. The Upside of a New Cold War With China

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · July 7, 2020

I think only Hal Brands can find an upside in this.  He provides us with positive and negative lessons from the Cold War.  I find this quote (among many) to be a particularly instructive reminder: "Precisely because the Cold War was a fierce ideological contest over what type of system could best meet the aspirations of humanity, it created an imperative for America to live up to the image it portrayed to the world."  Today is an ideological war like it was in the past.  My take on this is in this graphic.

 

7. Trump administration formally withdraws US from WHO

The Hill · by Brett Samuels · July 7, 2020

I think we are making a mistake.  International organizations are a key battleground in the ideological competition with China.  We should not be ceding the high ground.

 

8. USAGM CEO Michael Pack names James M. Miles, former SC Secretary of State, Acting CEO of Open Technology Fund

usagm.gov July 7, 2020

At 78 years old I wonder about his qualifications. Where is his technical, Internet, and communications expertise?  What does he know about internet and communications penetration of authoritarian countries?  I am sure he will surround himself with a team of experts in all these areas but I cannot imagine we cannot find someone with the requisite expertise for this position.  I guess his business acumen and non-profit management expertise trumps relevant experience with the mission. I just hope he listens to his experts.

 

9. Grassley: Senate would 'probably' override Trump veto of defense bill amid base renaming fight

The Hill · by Jordain Carney · July 7, 2020

Has a defense bill ever been vetoed and then had the veto overridden by Congress?

 

10. Foreign competition: the WTO seeks a new leader

espresso.economist.com · July 7, 2020

 

11. FBI: China attacking US in massive campaign including cyber, propaganda, economic espionage and more

americanmilitarynews.com · by Laura Widener · July 7, 2020

Cyber. Propaganda, and economic espionage (and more!)

 

12. EXCLUSIVE: Southcom commander describes Chinese and Russian threats in the Americas

Washington Examiner · by Abraham Mahshie · July 6, 2020

This is a global competition that is taking place in most all theaters.  We have to be careful about placing a geographic main effort in one theater when competitors are operating in multiple theaters. We need to provide the right resources in support of the correct policies and strategies for the different regions.

 

13. A Bird? A Plane? No, It's a Google Balloon Beaming the Internet

The New York Times · by Abdi Latif Dahir · July 7, 2020

Loon balloon.  I spoke with some Google researchers about similar capabilities about 10 years ago for Korea. I wish we could do this for north Korea but of course this would be viewed as a direct threat to the regime and they would probably retaliate kinetically. 

 

14. Military's Top Appeals Court to Consider Whether Retirees Can Be Court-Martialed

military.com · by Gina Harkins · July 7, 2020

Should we be worried? :-)

 

15. As nine alumni highlight racism at West Point, the academy's IG starts review of 'all matters involving race'

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · July 7, 2020

Someone is paying attention.

 

16.  US Approves $2b Osprey Aircraft Sale to Indonesia

jakartaglobe.id · July 08, 2020

This could be a very important capability for Indonesia though 8 will hardly be game changing.

 

17. Right-Wing Media Outlets Duped by a Middle East Propaganda Campaign

The Daily Beast · by Adam Rawnsley · July 6, 2020

A fascinating influence campaign exposed. Also fascinating are the reactions to the exposure.  That is assuming this report is accurate.

 

18. Warfighters in Ivory Towers: Does the US Army Need Officers with Doctoral Degrees?

mwi.usma.edu · by Paul Lushenko · July 8, 2020

Does it need them?  Probably not.  But does it benefit from having the right officers obtain that education? Yes I believe so.  I support higher education for our officers and NCOs as well (note the NDU/CISA/SWCS graduate program at Bragg for NCOs, warrant officers, and officers as one example).

But another way to ask the question is whether these programs will change the anti-intellectual culture within the military?  I think not.  If anything those few excellent officers in these programs will be simply held up as examples to say the Army supports education.  Where the anti-intellectual culture needs to change is with the rank and file military and at PME institutions and most importantly with the individual officer who should see the value in being a life-long learner striving to develop a superior intellect without concern for sheepskin.  And leaders at all levels should be encouraging lifelong learning (and leading by example in their intellectual pursuits).

 

19.  'The military's #MeToo': In wake of Vanessa Guillén death, servicewomen bear deep scars

The Washington Post· by Alex Horton· July 7, 2020

This is a horrific story made worse by what was not done and how sexual harassment is (and is not) handled that might have prevented this tragedy.  Like racism, this has to change.

 

20.  Opinion | College Courses Online Are Disappointing. Here's How to Fix Them.

The New York Times · by Lisa Feldman Barrett · July 8, 2020

There are good and bad.  I have been observing my daughter's experience and it was a tough transition in the middle of the semester.  But she is taking summer courses and they are improving.   I think there are good ideas below and I hope schools and professors consider them.  I also think that the vast majority of professors were not prepared to teach this way so they are going through their own learning process.  It will get better.  It has to.

 

21. Raising the age of military enlistment

militarytimes.com · by Peter Polack and Jack McCain · July 7, 2020

Some food for thought. This is a real challenge: "The two greatest threats to the free world will come from the East and they must not face young, inexperienced and weak minded opposition."  

 

22. Two Female Airmen Reclassify after Attempting to Complete Special Ops Training

military.com · by Oriana Pawlyk · July 7, 2020

 

----------

 

"The means of defence against foreign danger have been always the instruments of tyranny at home. Among the Romans it was a standing maxim to excite a war, whenever a revolt was apprehended. Throughout all Europe, the armies kept up under the pretext of defending, have enslaved the people."

- James Madison, Notes of Debates in the Federal Convention of 1787 Reported by James Madison

"You are young, my son, and, as the years go by, time will change and even reverse many of your present opinions.  Refrain therefore awhile from setting yourself up as a judge of the highest matters."  

- Plato

 

"In the future, we should anticipate seeing more hybrid wars where conventional warfare, irregular warfare, asymmetric warfare, and information warfare all blend together, creating a very complex and challenging situation to the combatants; therefore it will require military forces to possess hybrid capabilities, which might help deal with hybrid threats." 

- Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono

 

07/08/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Wed, 07/08/2020 - 8:29am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. S. Korean government prioritizes N. Korea over U.S.

2. Biegun visits S. Korea without his right arm

3. A midsummer night's dream (Korea and the Moon Administration)

4. Biegun thanks South Korea for supporting trip to Seoul amid COVID-19

5. N.K. leader visits mausoleum to mark late grandfather's death anniversary

6. Pyongyang tells Seoul to give up on mediating role

7. Are Bolton's words true? (Korea in Bolton's book)

8. US troops spark anger in South Korea

9. North Korea talks tough as U.S. negotiator lands in Seoul

10. Biegun meets senior Seoul officials over stalled nuke diplomacy

11. Biegun says U.S. 'strongly' supports inter-Korean cooperation

12. U.S. Remains Ready to Resume Nuclear Talks With North Korea, Envoy Says

13. Korean Tensions: An Unexpected Pause in an Uncertain Time

14. Reports: China, North Korea trade declining as food, fuel prices rise

15. Seven US troops test positive for coronavirus after arriving in South Korea

16. North Korea's Contradictions Will Be Its Demise

17. Kim Pyong-il: Former Ambassador or Future Supreme Leader of North Korea?

18. Men Un Black: Kim Jong Un is flanked by flunkeys

19. North Korean Elites' Self-Interest Will Keep Kim Family in Power

 

1.  S. Korean government prioritizes N. Korea over U.S.

donga.com July 8, 2020

The title says it all.  Unfortunately if South Korea goes down this path neither the ROK nor the US will be successful versus north Korea.  And of course a major priority of the regime is to split the ROK/US Alliance.

For the ROK and the US to be successful their actions must be built on a strong alliance.

 

2. Biegun visits S. Korea without his right arm

donga.com · July 8, 2020

I think the press and the pundits may be reading too much into this.  But of course everyone is reading the tea leaves looking for scrap of information that will be. a sign of what the US intends to do.  I would say this is probably much ado about nothing.  There is probably some innocuous explanation and I do not think it means anything negative in terms of the ROK/US alliance or policy and strategy versus north Korea.

 

3. A midsummer night's dream (Korea and the Moon Administration)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Nam Jeong-ho

Mr. Nam says Moon is betting everything on another Trump-Kim summit and he rightly calls it wishful thinking while ignoring reality.  The reality is the nature of the Kim family regime and the Moon administration's assumption about the regime have been wrong.  Never say never, but I think I have a better chance of winning the Powerball lottery than another summit.


4. Biegun thanks South Korea for supporting trip to Seoul amid COVID-19

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · July 8, 2020

Mr. Biegun and his team are grateful they did not have to quarantine for 14 days.  Hopefully traveling by US military air mitigated the risk for our team and for Korea.

 

5. N.K. leader visits mausoleum to mark late grandfather's death anniversary

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 8, 2020

Interestingly on the television footage we saw we did not observe any masks among the people  (just like the photo below). Kim Jong-un must not be as worried about the coronavirus or he just did not want to appear weak.  It is amazing to think that 26 years ago we were potentially on the brink of striking the north's nuclear program, Carter had just visited Pyongyang, we were in the midst of negotiating the Agreed Framework (approved in October) and Kim Il-sung passed away on July 8th.

It will be interesting if we read about a South Korean government message to the north on the anniversary of his death.

 

6. Pyongyang tells Seoul to give up on mediating role

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Shim Kyu-Seok

I am at a loss as to why the Moon administration is not understanding the regime's message.

And who thinks Mr Biegun is bringing a game-changing proposal to Seoul this week?  The only game-changing proposal can come from the north- if Kim agree to allow substantive working level negotiations to work toward denuclearization of the north.

 

7. Are Bolton's words true? (Korea in Bolton's book)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Michael Green

For all Korea watchers I hope you have read Chapter 11 of Bolton's book.  It is a fascinating read.  Bolton certainly did not have anything good to say about Mr. Biegun.

But Mike Green provides the grain of salt necessary for reading Bolton's book.


8. US Troops Spark Anger in South Korea

Daily Mail · by Ryan Fahey · July 7, 2020

As one of my many great Command Sergeants Major used to say: "One awe sh*t wipes out a thousand attaboys."  We did not need this.  And I think we wiped out a few thousand attaboys.

 

9. North Korea talks tough as U.S. negotiator lands in Seoul

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

Yes as Duyeon Kim mentions, the north is desperate to fix its economic problems. She is exactly right here: "The best way for the regime to divert attention from Kim's performance at home is to deflect his constituents' gaze outward." But we must remember those economic problems are caused by Kim Jong-un's policy decisions.  He chooses to put nuclear weapons and ICBMs ahead of the welfare of the Korean people living in the north.  He must be held accountable and one of the ways to do that is to inform the Korean people living in the north.

 

10. Biegun meets senior Seoul officials over stalled nuke diplomacy

koreaherald.com · July 8, 2020

We are prepared to engage.  The north is not.  Or I should say it will only engage if it receives the concessions it demands (sanctions relief).  If we ever give into the north's demands we will confirm to Kim Jong-un that his blackmail diplomacy works and we will simply see more demands.

 

11. Biegun says U.S. 'strongly' supports inter-Korean cooperation

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · July 8, 2020

Yes we do as long as engagement does not violate the sanctions regime and US law.

 

12. U.S. Remains Ready to Resume Nuclear Talks With North Korea, Envoy Says

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin · July 8, 2020

Pyongyang has no interest in talks unless it is guaranteed to have immediate sanctions relief.

Just as an aside can you imagine if there was a meeting and one side infected the other with the coronavirus?  There would surely be some fallout as a result (no pun intended).

 

13. Korean Tensions: An Unexpected Pause in an Uncertain Time

COMMENTARY  · by Duyeon Kim · July 7, 2020

The frog is going to boil from now and until November.  And we need to pay attention to the internal domestic pressures on Kim Jong-un.

And I am always leery when the propaganda against the South ceases.  But we have seen the reports that internal lectures continue the hostile attitude toward the South.

 

14. Reports: China, North Korea trade declining as food, fuel prices rise

upi.com · Elisabeth Shim · July 7, 2020

In north Korea things will always get worse and never seem to get better.

 

15. Seven US troops test positive for coronavirus after arriving in South Korea

Stars and Stripes · by Kim Gamel · July 8, 2020

I do worry about the amount of troops and staff augmentation and contractors who will deploy for the exercises.  Will they be deploying 14 days early for quarantine?  I would hate to think of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command suffering a massive outbreak due to the exercise.  Yet we have to train or readiness will decline.  This is a difficult commander's problem.

 

16. North Korea's Contradictions Will Be Its Demise

The National Interest · by Jeenho Hahm · July 7, 2020

Will the "anachronism" soon expire?  We cannot make such predictions.  But we must observe for indicators and be prepared for all contingencies.

 

17.  Kim Pyong-il: Former Ambassador or Future Supreme Leader of North Korea?

The National Interest · by Harry J. Kazianis, John Grover, and Adriana Nazarko · July 7, 2020

Interesting background on Kim Pyong-il.  He does not get much press (though of course as noted there was speculation about him possibly being a successor but I think that has been debunked or as the article notes he would be an unlikely successor).

 

18. Men Un Black: Kim Jong Un is flanked by flunkeys

Daily Mail · by Alice Cachia For Mailonline · July 8, 2020

Flunkeys is usually a term used by the north to describe the South.  And again, note there were no masks.

 

19. North Korean Elites' Self-Interest Will Keep Kim Family in Power

The National Interest · by Welton Chang · July 7, 2020

This is why we have not yet seen internal resistance among the elite.  Despite the hardships in north Korea the elite are still better off than they would be without Kim Jong-un in power.  The question is if or when their views will shift?  They have contributed to the incredible resilience of the regime.

 

---------

 

"The means of defence against foreign danger have been always the instruments of tyranny at home. Among the Romans it was a standing maxim to excite a war, whenever a revolt was apprehended. Throughout all Europe, the armies kept up under the pretext of defending, have enslaved the people."

- James Madison, Notes of Debates in the Federal Convention of 1787 Reported by James Madison

"You are young, my son, and, as the years go by, time will change and even reverse many of your present opinions.  Refrain therefore awhile from setting yourself up as a judge of the highest matters."  

- Plato

 

"In the future, we should anticipate seeing more hybrid wars where conventional warfare, irregular warfare, asymmetric warfare, and information warfare all blend together, creating a very complex and challenging situation to the combatants; therefore it will require military forces to possess hybrid capabilities, which might help deal with hybrid threats." 

- Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono

07/07/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Tue, 07/07/2020 - 11:34am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. Challenging China's "Wolf Warrior" Diplomats by Dean Cheng

2. US approves $7.5 billion in foreign weapons sales in one day

3. The Trump administration is considering banning TikTok in the US

4. Build a national counter-drone network

5. Highly infectious Coronavirus strain takes over

6. Terrorist groups must not be allowed to exploit 'fragilities' caused by global health pandemic

7. The tip of the American military spear is being blunted

8. Coronavirus roundup: More universities announce plans for largely online fall terms

9. The US pioneered digital contact tracing. Why aren't we using it to fight COVID-19?

10. China detains Xu Zhangrun, leading critic of President Xi Jinping

11. Opinion | Facebook can't be reformed

12. Why women absolutely belong in the US military's special operations forces

13. The two-man OSS mission through the Tibetan mountains to contact the Dalai Lama

14. Pentagon draft policy would ban Confederate flag displays

15. Black US Army cadets say they were called the N-word and 'shunned' for reporting discrimination at West Point

 

1. Challenging China's "Wolf Warrior" Diplomats by Dean Cheng

heritage.org · by Dean Cheng

This report in PDF can be downloaded here https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2020-07/BG3504.pdf

This is an important paper. Dean Cheng provides an excellent survey of Chinese history, diplomacy, and culture leading to the rise of the "warrior diplomats." He offers three recommendations. (and notes the importance of better coordinating US messaging and public diplomacy to include effective use of the USAGM and VOA, RFA, etc).

2. US approves $7.5 billion in foreign weapons sales in one day

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · July 6, 2020

Maybe someone got ahold of the autopen and went to work!

3. The Trump administration is considering banning TikTok in the US

NME · July 7, 2020

I hate to see a ban on anything. I would like the American public to just delete the app on their own because they were informed and and understand the threat and danger it poses.

This is not a long term solution because the Chinese will find another way to extract data from the American people.  We need education on good cyber hygiene and cyber civil defense. I know it is a naive thought but if a populace is better informed of the threat and is educated and trained to defend themselves our adversaries will have a more difficult time attacking us. Or we can just ban them as they are introduced and play whac-a-mole.

4. Build a national counter-drone network

defenseone.com · by Zak Kallenborn 

Although Clausewitz tells us defense is the stronger form of war, I think it does not apply in missile defense, cyber defense, and drone defense. Defense is harder with the capabilities. But we must try to build good defenses against drones and other capabilities. But we must also accept there is no perfect defense.

Some food for thought here.

5. Highly infectious Coronavirus strain takes over

english.chosun.com · July 7, 2020

I am getting more worried every day. I think I will follow in the footsteps of Miyamoto Mushashi or any Buddhist Monk and go to the mountains and find a cave to live and to write and live out the rest of my days as long as it has a good wifi connection).

6. Terrorist groups must not be allowed to exploit 'fragilities' caused by global health pandemic

news.un.org · July 6, 2020

But these groups are learning organizations and seek weaknesses to exploit. And the pandemic is exposing weaknesses.

7. The tip of the American military spear is being blunted

Foreign Policy · by Tanner Greer · July 6, 2020

A critique of US Marine Corps reforms.

8. Coronavirus roundup: More universities announce plans for largely online fall terms

Inside Higher Ed · July 7, 2020

I hope they will enough in residence offerings so our international students do not get caught up in the idiotic immigration proposals being made to make them return to their home countries or risk being deported if their university goes to all online classes. We really know how to cut off our nose to spite our face.

9. The US pioneered digital contact tracing. Why aren't we using it to fight COVID-19?

defenseone.com · by Bhaskar Chakravorti

Because Americans no longer trust science. This is the key action in continuing and stopping the spread of the virus. We should remember that with rights comes responsibility. And we all have a responsibility to safeguard our nation and our fellow citizens.

10. China detains Xu Zhangrun, leading critic of President Xi Jinping

The Washington Post · by Gerry Shih · July 6, 2020

Should be no surprise.

11. Opinion | Facebook can't be reformed

The New York Times · by Charlie Warzel · July 1, 2020

12. Why women absolutely belong in the US military's special operations forces

Business Insider · by Charlie

This should stir up some discussion. But it is a done deal. It is happening and will continue to happen (albeit slowly perhaps). So get on with it.

13. The two-man OSS mission through the Tibetan mountains to contact the Dalai Lama

coffeeordie.com · by Matt Fratus · July 6, 2020

Some SOF/OSS history. This is a pretty cool piece of trivia. "His Holiness the Dalai Lama visited Washington, D.C., in 2016 and carried his gold pocket Patek Philippe watch (reference 658) gifted to him by OSS officers in 1942, a kind gesture sent from President Franklin Roosevelt." We do this very poorly today. Yes we give gifts to our counterparts and they are often cherished in this way. But our military personnel do it out of their own pockets (so they do not give Patek Philippe watches) because "official representation" funding is so limited (both in amounts to be spent and who can provide such gifts). The fact is every SF ODA, PSYOP Team, and Civil Affairs Team and other military units gives gifts to their counterparts. And the sad irony is no matter how poor and poverty stricken a country might be, the host nation counterparts give us more valuable gifts in return.

14. Pentagon draft policy would ban Confederate flag displays

militarytimes.com · by Lolita Baldor · July 6, 2020

Are we headed for another civil-military dust-up? There should not even be a debate over this.

15. Black US Army cadets say they were called the N-word and 'shunned' for reporting discrimination at West Point

Business Insider · by David Choi

The 40 page policy proposal referenced in this article can be accessed at this link. It is a very remarkable letter from recent West Point graduates with detailed information and proposals. It is difficult to dispute first person accounts of experiences from these nine serving officers who had the guts to put their name on this letter and make very thoughtful, professional, and well researched policy recommendations.  

https://www.slideshare.net/TimothyBerry8/an-anti-racist-west-point

 

-----------

"An optimist is a person who sees a green light everywhere, while a pessimist sees only the red stoplight... the truly wise person is colorblind."

- Albert Schweitzer 

 

To be a philosopher is not merely to have subtle thoughts, nor even to found a school, but so to love wisdom as to live according to its dictates, "a life of simplicity, independence, magnanimity and trust."

- Henry David Thoreau



"A wise man makes his own decisions, an ignorant man follows the public opinion."

- Grantland Rice