News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

1. N.K. again rejects possibility of talks with U.S. as Biegun set to arrive in Seoul

2. Seoul doubles down on North Korea gambit with National Security reshuffle

3. Biegun expected to focus on reviving talks with North

4. S. Korea poised to push through inter-Korean cooperation - regardless of US position

5. N. Korean propaganda lectures focus on anti-South Korean rhetoric

6. N. Korea orders hospitals to manufacture their own medicines

7. Former POWs win damage suit against N. Korea and its leader

8. New virus infections below 50 for 2nd day, imported cases on higher plateau

9. N. Korea's paper says border control tightened to fight virus

10. North Korea defectors face wrath of both Seoul and Pyongyang

11. Balloon man defector angers both Koreas

12. North Korea's Lazarus group diversifies into card skimming

13. Opinion: Otto Warmbier won't be forgotten in our hearts

14. Thoughts on North Korean issue

15. Pompeo welcomes Britain's sanctions on N. Korea, others

16. Russian Amb. Kulik calls for economic engagement with N.K. toward peace, trust

17. Why the chances for future Korean peace are low

18. The Korean War as Allegory

19. Perpetual Struggle: Why the Korean War did not end for North Korea

1. N.K. again rejects possibility of talks with U.S. as Biegun set to arrive in Seoul

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 7, 2020

Kwon Jong-gun says, What part of "no" don't you understand. But note he is a MOFA official, Director General in charge of US affairs so like Kim Yo-jong, he can be overruled by Kim Jong-un if it suits him and his strategy and tactics.

2. Seoul doubles down on North Korea gambit with National Security reshuffle

thediplomat.com · by Tae-jun Kang · July 6, 2020

I had hoped the Moon administration would have reassessed its assumptions, policies, and strategy but this is a clear indication that Moon is all in on his "peace strategy." Remember this new security really is responsible for North Korea no collapsing after the great famine when the transferred hundreds of millions of dollars to the north during the Sunshine and peace and Prosperity Policy period (1997-2007) and they are also responsible for North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006 which was funded with the help of the aid from the South. They never heard The Who play the song, "Won't get fooled again..."

A damning comment in the analysis below about how Korean presidents use the heads of their National Intelligence Service.

3. Biegun expected to focus on reviving talks with North

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · July 7, 2020

I know we are committed to working level negotiations and have been since June of 2018 in Singapore and I am sure Mr. Biegun will reiterate that. But it is Kim Jong-un who has prevented them. But I seriously doubt either the US or north Korea will push for a summit. It is only president Moon who is doing so.

4. S. Korea poised to push through inter-Korean cooperation - regardless of US position

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · July 6, 2020

This is the near ambush that Mr. Biegun is running into in Seoul (please remember the rules of an ambush and assault through it - and I hope Minister Kang and Lee Do-hoon can provide covering fire)). This is a hostile environment with the new security team. It does not bode well for the alliance with these kinds of statements. Note the comments on the strategy working group. That has become a lightning rod for blame for the failure of intra-Korean relations when in fact the US is not blocking engagement by the South (though sanctions and the law might) and the single cause for failure is Kim Jong-un and his failure to engage with the South.  He is not aligned with the South's peace strategy. He only wants to con the South out of more money but fortunately sanctions do prevent doing so.

5. N. Korean propaganda lectures focus on anti-South Korean rhetoric

dailynk.com · July 7, 2020

The regime's true colors. It needs a hostile relationship with the South and the US to sustain its legitimacy. It is interesting to consider the propaganda because it is telling the people the exact opposite of South Korea's position and making it seem like it is the regime that wants peace and reconciliation when in fact it has no such intention. I really wish the Moon administration would pay attention to the north's actions and understand its strategy and objectives. The will never align with the South's. Note also the effort to prevent information from getting out of the North.

6. N. Korea orders hospitals to manufacture their own medicines

dailynk.com · July 7, 2020

The message is the party cannot provide. You are on your own.

7. Former POWs win damage suit against N. Korea and its leader

en.yna.co.kr · by 심선아 · July 7, 2020

There are still so many unaccounted for South Korea, US, and allied personnel. I fear they are tilting at windmills in terms of actually receiving compensation. But it is good to keep this issue alive so people can understand the truly evil nature of the Kim family regime going all the way back to its establishment.

8. New virus infections below 50 for 2nd day, imported cases on higher plateau

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · July 7, 2020

Some slightly good news. And the fact that they are catching imported cases must be an indication of effective screening at ports of entry.

9. N. Korea's paper says border control tightened to fight virus

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 7, 2020

The tighter the border the more difficult for the Korean people in the North to conduct economic activity and the suffering will continue to increase. I think the regime may be trying to take full advantage of the virus to implement great control over the population.

10. North Korea defectors face wrath of both Seoul and Pyongyang

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · July 6, 2020

These Korean patriots are caught between a rock and a hard place. This should not be happening. They should be protected, and their work should be supported. I expect the North to be hostile toward them but the South Korean government and people should not be hostile to their fellow citizens just because they happened to have lived in the North, escaped, and are not trying to help their fellow Koreans in the North.

11. Balloon man defector angers both Koreas

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · July 6, 2020

Mr. Park has an interesting thesis on why the Koreans in the South are hostile to his important work: They have a "reverse-Stockholm syndrome." I do not know if it is "reverse" because Koreans in the South are "hostage" under the threat of north Korean action.

And note his denials of sending the alleged photos of Kim Jong-un's wife. I have it on good authority that such leaflets were not made in the South and were not sent from the South I think that is Russian disinformation and active measures to support the regime (the reports of the leaflets came from Russia originally and of course no one has shown us the actual leaflets. That should be an indicator.

12. North Korea's Lazarus group diversifies into card skimming

darkreading.com

More on the activities of the north's "all-purpose sword."

13. Opinion: Otto Warmbier won't be forgotten in our hearts

cincinnati.com · by Jung Min Noh and Dunkin Han

A very nice essay from two of my favourite (among many) journalists from Radio Free Asia (note their bios below). Remember the special report they describe in this essay is for broadcast into North Korea. The Korean people in the North must be informed about human rights and about the wrongs the regime is committing. This is an important mission. Humans rights is a moral imperative and a national security issue. The focus on human rights also helps to prepare the Korean people in the north for unification.

14. Thoughts on North Korean issue

The Korea Times · by Chang Se-moon · July 5, 2020

This essay has two parts. One is a focus on Otto Warmbier and human rights. The second is the author's advice for restarting negotiations "based on clearly stated step-by-step procedures of country-specific obligations." But he clearly has a strong information and influence component to his proposal.

15. Pompeo welcomes Britain's sanctions on N. Korea, others

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · July 7, 2020

Welcome supporting fires from the UK.

16. Russian Amb. Kulik calls for economic engagement with N.K. toward peace, trust

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · July 7, 2020

Of course Russia wants sanctions relief for the north and for the South and the US to provide concessions. And yes, I believe the Ambassador when he says, "that his country has "sincerely and consistently" fulfilled all of its obligations" when it comes to sanctions and slave labor from North Korea. (note my sarcasm)

17. Why the chances for future Korean peace are low

The National Interest · by Malcolm Davis · July 6, 2020

It is because Kim Jong-un won't "give peace a chance." Peace is a threat to his survival as counterintuitive as that may seem. He needs the threat to maintain the justification for the sacrifices of the Korean people living in the North.

18. The Korean War as Allegory

The National Interest · by Spencer D. Bakich · July 6, 2020

We should remember that at the heart of the situation the war between the North and South is now an Ideological War - the Korean people on the peninsula must make a choice between:
    * Shared ROK/US Values :Freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights
    * Kim family regime (KFR) "values:" Juche/Kimilsungism, Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, and denial of human rights to sustain KFR power

The question is how do you fight and win this ideological war?

19. Perpetual Struggle: Why the Korean War did not end for North Korea

The National Interest · by Eric Ballbach · July 7, 2020

Simply put, North Korean "politics" is zero sum with the South. The only way the North desires to have "peace" is through the elimination of the ROK to allow the North to rule the entire Korean peninsula under the domination of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

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"An optimist is a person who sees a green light everywhere, while a pessimist sees only the red stoplight... the truly wise person is colorblind."

- Albert Schweitzer 

To be a philosopher is not merely to have subtle thoughts, nor even to found a school, but so to love wisdom as to live according to its dictates, "a life of simplicity, independence, magnanimity and trust."

- Henry David Thoreau

"A wise man makes his own decisions, an ignorant man follows the public opinion."

- Grantland Rice

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

1. Covid-19 is here to stay. People will have to adapt

2. Thousands of US troops will shift to Asia-Pacific to guard against China

3. The hidden aftershocks of John Bolton's memoir as foreign government officials remain fixated

4. Fake accounts are constantly manipulating what you see on social media. Here's how

5. Duterte's worrisome anti-terrorism act

6.  US military presence in Poland - Analysis

7. Operation Bashi Channel: the next flashpoint in the China-US military rivalry

8. 239 Experts with one big claim: the Coronavirus is airborne

9. The fullest look yet at the racial inequity of Coronavirus

10. TikTok may be 'data collection service disguised as social media', Liberal senator says

11. Hong Kong, changed overnight, navigates its new reality

12. China's superpower dreams are running out of money

13. Bucking China pressure, Taiwan, Somaliland establish ties

14. A Wicked Cultural Problem: Options for combating new Tribalism in 2035

15. White House to interview defense officials in perceived loyalty test

16. Air Force says 26 states have submitted bids to host U.S. Space Command

17. Rushing to Defeat: The Strategic flaw in contemporary U.S. Army thinking

18. White House tentatively agrees to leave some troops in Afghanistan past U.S. election

19. Troops, long-term residents exempt from EU coronavirus travel ban on American

20. War Books: How to win a land war in Asia

1. Covid-19 is here to stay. People will have to adapt

The Economist · July 4, 2020

Yes this is the new reality, the new normal. We need to adopt and practice fundamental public health procedures as a matter of routine to protect each other.

I found this comment on my Facebook page from a friend from overseas.

1. My kids are asking how come our neighbors are having the 4th of July party altogether with the other neighbors while we try to keep social distance with them as they just came back from a vacation to Florida.

2.  Foreign diplomatic corps colleagues in major American cities like Washington DC and New York are trying to relocate themselves to different countries amid Covid19. They say other places would be safer for sometime than DC/NY, and it's surprising to see what cities and countries are on the list as alternatives.

Quo Vadis America?

My response to him:

I am saddened to read your comments, but I understand your feelings and fears. It is not what you have written that makes me sad. It is the reason why you had to write it that is so troubling. We cannot get our own house in order.

2. Thousands of US troops will shift to Asia-Pacific to guard against China

asia.nikkei.com

Where will they go? What country is going to pay the costs to host them? (Said with tongue in cheek sarcasm). I think what will really happen is they will return to CONUS and the. Simply be apportioned to support war plans and training in the Pacific. I do not think we have the infrastructure in Asia-Pacific to base more forces. Perhaps temporary rotations such as in Australia (such as the Marines) but I doubt they can be permanently based anywhere. (Maybe Alaska but that would be about it, Where in Guam or Japan? Hawaii perhaps but I will bet there is not a lot of excess space there)

Some might consider "spreading them out" through the theater. Spreading them out? What kind of units are they? What kind of capabilities will they have? What does 9500 troops spread out of Asia do for us? This is simply crazy. Everyone just looks at numbers. What kind of effects will this achieve? Just to say we have more troops in Asia? We know there is insufficient infrastructure for Army units throughout Asia. And then why will we bring home troops from Korea (or maybe Japan as well if they are "delinquent" on their payments? I know they are not and Korea certainly pays for its defense as a percentage of its GDP more than Germany and most all NATO allies, if not all).

The bottom line is what specific units with what specific capabilities will be withdrawn from Germany and shifted to Asia? My guess is the majority of the forces will be CONUS based and perhaps some in Hawaii and Guam and will simply be apportioned to support war plans in the Pacific and theater engagement activities.

But we should always remember that brilliant movie on strategy, the Princess Bride and heed this advice:

Vizzini: You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha, you fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less well-known is this: Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line.

3. The hidden aftershocks of John Bolton's memoir as foreign government officials remain fixated

Axios · by Jonathan Swan

Yes, Bolton's book has faded in the US press. But it is continuing to have aftershocks among our allies.

4. Fake accounts are constantly manipulating what you see on social media. Here's how

ScienceAlert · by Jeanna Matthews, The Conversation

What is the best way to defend against fake accounts? The author provides four recommendations with the last summarized as do not become addicted to social media.

5. Duterte's worrisome anti-terrorism act

asiasentinel.com · by Asia Sentinel

Yes we should be concerned with democracy in the Philippines.

6.  US military presence in Poland – Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by Andrew Feickert, Kathleen J. Mclnnis, and Derek E. Mix · July 5, 2020

You can always count on the Congressional Research Service to provide some good analysis.

7. Operation Bashi Channel: the next flashpoint in the China-US military rivalry

https://www.scmp.com/ · by Lawrence Chung · July 5, 2020

8. 239 Experts with one big claim: the Coronavirus is airborne

The New York Times · by Apoorva Mandavilli · July 4, 2020

Troubling if accurate.

Of course the internet memes will seize on this and all the internet experts will debunk the scientists and say this is just a conspiracy to end the world as we know it. Watch how the internet trolls react to this.

9. The fullest look yet at the racial inequity of Coronavirus

The New York Times · by Richard A. Oppel Jr. · July 5, 2020

Please go to the link to view the charts and data.  

Public health is a national security issue. We have seen the reports of the potential long-term lung damage the virus may cause. It seems to be infecting more and more young people.  Think about what that could mean for military age manpower.

Again, I am sure the internet trolls will be out with their own statistics to debunk the notion there is systemic racism in America.  Watch for the revisionist powers to use this information (and counter-information) to create a greater divide in the US.

10. TikTok may be 'data collection service disguised as social media', Liberal senator says

The Guardian · by Paul Karp · July 6, 2020

An excellent description from an Australian senator. We should be very aware of this. But it has enormous popularity. Rather than ban it I wish we could just educate people as to the danger and let them make their own correct decision. But this is why cyber hygiene and cyber civil defense is so difficult. These social media platforms are addictive. They provide mindless entertainment for the masses thus allowing the Chinese to collect large amounts of data. Of course western and US social media companies also hoover up large amounts of data as well (which leads to the so-what argument - if everyone does it why do we single out China? - that of course misses the point).

11. Hong Kong, changed overnight, navigates its new reality

The New York Times · by Vivian Wang · July 5, 2020

The times are changing. And not for the better for the citizens of Hong Kong.

12. China's superpower dreams are running out of money

Foreign Policy · by Salvatore Babones · July 6, 2020

I hope this is the case and not wishful thinking. But I would not hold my breath or include this as a hopeful part of a strategy to deal with China.

13. Bucking China pressure, Taiwan, Somaliland establish ties

The Washington Post · by Associated Press

A rare diplomatic victory? I think this goes in the SERE school definition of "small victories." Buttaiwan needs every one of such small victories.

14. A Wicked Cultural Problem: Options for combating new Tribalism in 2035

divergentoptions.org · by Divergent Options · July 6, 2020

An interesting think piece. I thought this was going to address the problem of tribalism in American politics but it has a different thesis.

15. White House to interview defense officials in perceived loyalty test

Foreign Policy · by Jack Detsch, Robbie Gramer · July 3, 2020

Sigh...next we will be implementing Songbun. I hope this is inaccurate reporting.

Can you imagine being a senior official and  having to have an "office call" with these two? John Troup Hemenway, an undergraduate student at the University of Virginia, and Jordan Hayley, who graduated from Liberty University in June. And they are going to assess your loyalty to the President?

16. Air Force says 26 states have submitted bids to host U.S. Space Command

spacenews.com · by Sandra Erwin · July 5, 2020

Almost like bidding to host the Olympics.

But the concluding paragraph sums up the challenge. Congress will be intensely scrutinizing this to prevent a "moondoggle."

17. Rushing to Defeat: The Strategic flaw in contemporary U.S. Army thinking

thestrategybridge.org · July 6, 2020

This sums up the author's thesis: "While acolytes of multi-domain operations point to the Wehrmacht's early wins as evidence that short and lively campaigns work, they often fail to acknowledge that, in both world wars, this thinking ultimately led to strategic defeat." I am sure the strategists and concept developers at the Pentagon and TRADOC will take exception to this accusation.

18. White House tentatively agrees to leave some troops in Afghanistan past U.S. election

Los Angeles Times · by David S. Cloud · July 3, 2020

19. Troops, long-term residents exempt from EU coronavirus travel ban on American

Stars and Stripes · by John Vandiver · July 2, 2020

Some good news I suppose.

20. War Books: How to win a land war in Asia

mwi.usma.edu · by T.S. Allen · July 6, 2020

I still think it is good advice to avoid a land war in Asia. I think that must be why we changed the name from PACOM to INDOPACOM instead of the Asia-Pacific Command. INDO and PACOM refer to the Pacific and Indian Oceans where we desire to operate rather than on the Asia land mass (I am being sarcastic here).

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"Human dignity and freedom are our constant necessities.  So, let us keep them with us, or let us die with dignity." 

-  Marcus Tullius Cicero

"This is the diviine law of life: that only virtue stands firm.  All the rest is nothing." 

- Pythagoras

"Good people will do what they find honorable to do, even if it requires hard work; they'll do it even if causes them injury; they'll do it even if it will bring danger.  Again, they won't do what they find base., even if it brings great wealth, pleasure, or power.  Nothing will deter them from what is honorable, and nothing will lure them into what is base."

- Seneca, Moral Letters

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

1. Moon's new diplomatic lineup raises concerns over alliance with U.S.

2. Gov't fully activates task force on Sino-U.S. row

3. Ending the Korean War won't be easy as long as North Korea exists

4. US News falsely reports that North Korea threatened to nuke US

5. North Korea boasts of new surf resort in bizarre bid to get tourists over

6. North Korea shock: Chilling discovery made in Kim's secret underground tunnel revealed

7. In defense of Park Sang Hak and balloon launches to North Korea

8. Investigation launched into South Korea Bible balloon launching

9. Kim Jong Un blew up liaison office over alleged malicious content on wife, family: Report

10. N.Korea celebrates anniversary of missile launch

11. Hundreds of drones light up Seoul sky with virus messages

12. North Korean hackers linked to web skimming (Magecart) attacks, report says

13. The North Korean refugees supplying PPE to care homes

14. South Korea denies U.S. request to extradite operator of child pornography site

15. Washington's N.Korea point man to visit Seoul

16. Dialogue with N.K. must continue under any circumstances: unification minister nominee

17. Adelaide taekwondo instructor recounts fleeing North Korea 70 years ago

1. Moon's new diplomatic lineup raises concerns over alliance with U.S.

The Korea Times · by Do Je-hae · July 5, 2020

Yes we should be concerned. The perfect storm is coming for our alliance - the SMA stalemate, the revelation in Bolton's book, and the new South Korean national security team. 

2. Gov't fully activates task force on Sino-U.S. row

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 5, 2020

And yes this is another aspect of the coming perfect storm for our ROK/US alliance.

3. Ending the Korean War won't be easy as long as North Korea exists

The National Interest · by Chung Min Lee · July 5, 2020

Dr. Chung Min Lee is exactly right. Nothing will change as long as the Kim family regime remains in power.

The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

4. US News falsely reports that North Korea threatened to nuke US

FAIR · by Joshua Cho · July 5, 2020

Young Mr. Cho continues his defense of the Kim family regime. He accuses US News and World Report of a "ridiculous interpretation" but I think he must really be mirror imaging. He provides us with his "nuanced analysis" of North Korean statements that of course blame the US and defend the Kim family regime.

5. North Korea boasts of new surf resort in bizarre bid to get tourists over

dailystar.co.uk · by Berny Torre · July 5, 2020

I guess the regime needs some more hostages for its blackmail diplomacy. They probably think surfers are bold enough to do this and will also get a lot wild and give them the pretext for "arresting" one more to hold them hostage in support of its blackmail diplomacy.

What we should keep in mind is the resources for this new "resort" could be used to take care of the Korean people who are suffering in the North. These are the type of bankrupt policy decisions that illustrate Kim has no intention of being a responsible leader and continues to deny the basic human right. So the Korean people so that he can remain in power.

6. North Korea shock: Chilling discovery made in Kim's secret underground tunnel revealed

Express · by Joel Day · July 4, 2020

I am confused about the reporting in this article. This is a real clickbait headline. Yes we believe there are some 5000 underground facilities. But tunneling under the DMZ?  We have found four. An engineer who escaped said there were 21 or 22 planned for under the DMZ from north to South. I am pretty sure all four tunnels are sealed off on the southern side of the Military Demarcation Line. I am not sure how anyone could inadvertently walk to the north Korean side. The four tunnels were discovered in 1974, 1975, 1978 and 1990. As far as I know there has not been one discovered since then.

7. In defense of Park Sang Hak and balloon launches to North Korea

Chosun, https://news.naver.com/ · by Suzanne Scholte, Seoul Peace Prize Laureate

The links are to the Korean language article. Suzanne Scholte, the author, and a friend and fellow board member of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) provided the English translation below. She has probably done more to help Korean escapees get information into the North than any other American.

Her message is clear and important. We must stand up for the rights of escapees (defectors) from the north who are living in the South. They should be protected, and their work should be supported by the ROK government. And most importantly, no one should ever back down in the face of threats from North Korea.

And if you are interested in learning more about her work and supporting it please go to the Defense Forum Foundation at this link; https://www.defenseforumfoundation.org/

8. Investigation launched into South Korea Bible balloon launching

chvnradio.com · by Libby Giesbrecht · July 5, 2020

Another troubling report. The South Korean government should be ashamed of itself. Whether the information sent to North Korea is political or religious it should be supported by the government. The people in the North need all information that can be sent.

9. Kim Jong Un blew up liaison office over alleged malicious content on wife, family: Report

republicworld.com · by Kunal Gaurav · July 6, 2020

Again this is likely part of a North Korea (or Russian) disinformation campaign. The escapees in the South did not do this. They are more sophisticated and would not use cheap photoshopped pictures. They would not photoshop in such as "low-grade way" as described by the Russian ambassador to North Korea said. But we have not seen any of these images (of course the North's convenient excuse is they do not want to expose them to further this insult to Kim and his wife). This is a perfectly manufactured excuse to take action against the South. And South Korea and specifically the Ministry of Unification fell right into their trap by blaming the escapees and their balloon launches.

10. N.Korea celebrates anniversary of missile launch

english.chosun.com · July 6, 2020

Yes this is an obvious message. Lift sanctions or we may launch again. This is part of the slow boiling of the frog we are going to see possibly leading up to a provocation as an "October surprise." Of course if we keep exposing the possible surprises Kim may not be able to surprise us with anything.

11. Hundreds of drones light up Seoul sky with virus messages

news.abs-cbn.com · by Agence France-Presse · July 6, 2020

Recall the fantastic light show at the 2018 Olympics (though there was some controversy about pre-recorded aspects of it). This could be an important capability. I wonder if the South can exploit this for military and/or psychological operations purposes.

12. North Korean hackers linked to web skimming (Magecart) attacks, report says

ZDNet · by Catalin Cimpanu

More on the regime's "all purpose sword." This is one of the most important capabilities of North Korea. Watch our Amazon. Everyone around the world needs to be aware of North Korean capabilities, activities, and intent.

13. The North Korean refugees supplying PPE to care homes

BBC · by Tom Brada · July 6, 2020

North Korean escapees giving back to their new country.

14. South Korea denies U.S. request to extradite operator of child pornography site

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · July 6, 2020

15. Washington's N.Korea point man to visit Seoul

english.chosun.com

It will be a busy week. I guess South Korea will waive the 14 day quarantine requirement.

I suspect these meetings might be coming at an inflection point for the ROK/US alliance. This is potentially a very important trip.

16. Dialogue with N.K. must continue under any circumstances: unification minister nominee

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 6, 2020

When you want peace at any cost the cost could be very high in terms of blood and treasure and it could bring an existential crisis to your country.

17. Adelaide taekwondo instructor recounts fleeing North Korea 70 years ago

ABC.net.au · July 4, 2020

A Korean War perspective. We will soon be running out of first person stories from the war.

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"Human dignity and freedom are our constant necessities.  So, let us keep them with us, or let us die with dignity." 

-  Marcus Tullius Cicero

"This is the diviine law of life: that only virtue stands firm.  All the rest is nothing." 

- Pythagoras

"Good people will do what they find honorable to do, even if it requires hard work; they'll do it even if causes them injury; they'll do it even if it will bring danger.  Again, they won't do what they find base., even if it brings great wealth, pleasure, or power.  Nothing will deter them from what is honorable, and nothing will lure them into what is base."

- Seneca, Moral Letters

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. From Global Domination to Losing Perception War: How China Lost Plot, Locked Horns With India at Worst Time

2. 5G Was Going to Unite the World - Instead It's Tearing Us Apart

3. America Is Ripe for Russian Interference This Election Season

4. The stunning hypocrisy of America's criticism on China

5. The United States, National Traditions, and Human Rights

6. Militias flocked to Gettysburg to foil a supposed antifa flag burning, an apparent hoax created on social media

7. The Boogaloo Tipping Point

8. We asked veterans to respond to The Post's reporting on Clint Lorance and his platoon. Here's what they said.

9. Finland rates Taiwan-made masks far higher than Chinese gear

10. China Appoints Protest and Propaganda Enforcer to Tame Hong Kong

11. 'People's War:' Pro-China Communists Claim Credit for 'Sparking' US Riots

12. The party speaks for you: Foreign interference and the Chinese Communist Party's united front system

13. Judge gives Duque 48 hours to suspend US military operations in Colombia

14. Three Kinds of Power: What the U.S. can -- and can't -- actually do about China.

15. You Say You Want a Revolution?

1. From Global Domination to Losing Perception War: How China Lost Plot, Locked Horns With India at Worst Time

news18.com · July 5, 2020

Let's just hope the Chinese Communist Party continues to make mistakes and we do not interrupt it as Napoleon counsels.

2. 5G Was Going to Unite the World - Instead It's Tearing Us Apart

Wired · by Will Knight

As noted, today it is difficult to separate economic interests with national security interests.

3. America Is Ripe for Russian Interference This Election Season

gen.medium.com – by Brandon Yu – 30 June 2020

A sober warning.

4. The stunning hypocrisy of America's criticism on China

CNN · by Tai-Heng Cheng

While this will upset many people, this is a fairly objective Op-ed.  I think the headline editor got carried away and showed his or her editorial bias. It provides an understanding of how China can and does use our own domestic issues against us.

5. The United States, National Traditions, and Human Rights

realclearpolitics.com · by Peter Berkowitz

From the head of State's Policy Planning. It is comprehensive explanation of the State Department's Commission on Unalienable Rights and the tension between unalienable rights and sovereignty.

6. Militias flocked to Gettysburg to foil a supposed antifa flag burning, an apparent hoax created on social media

The Washington Post -

I would bet this is the result of revisionist power manipulation of social media.  Just a reminder form page 14 of our NSS.  

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

7. The Boogaloo Tipping Point

The Atlantic · by Dale Beran · July 4, 2020

An interesting question in the subtitle.

What happens when a meme becomes a terrorist movement?

8. We asked veterans to respond to The Post's reporting on Clint Lorance and his platoon. Here's what they said.

The Washington Post – by Julie Vitkovskaya – 4 July 2020

If you did not read this tragic and troubling story on the Curse Platoon by Greg Jafffe please go to this link and read it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/clint-lorance-platoon-afghanistan/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2

9. Finland rates Taiwan-made masks far higher than Chinese gear

taiwannews.com.tw · by Taiwan News

10. China Appoints Protest and Propaganda Enforcer to Tame Hong Kong

WSJ · by Chun Han Wong – 3 July 2020

I hear that he looks like Dirty Harry in The Enforcer.  He is alleged to proficient with a .44 Magnum.

11. 'People's War:' Pro-China Communists Claim Credit for 'Sparking' US Riots

theepochtimes.com · by Trevor Loudon contributor · July 2, 2020

Hmmm.... I suppose some propagandists would try to claim credit for what is happening in the US to counterbalance the perceived influence of unalienable rights and universal human rights on the people of Hong Kong.

But at least we in American have a recognized and cherished right to assemble and air our grievances against our government.  Despite the feelings of many about what is happening in the US I would surely rather have our protests in our traditions than have to live under the yoke of Chinese Communist Party oppression.

Note this is from the rabidly anti-Communist Epoch Times.

12. The party speaks for you: Foreign interference and the Chinese Communist Party's united front system

aspi.org.au · by Alex Joske

A very long read. The author calls on governments to disrupt the efforts of the United Front Department. To do that we must first expose the population and government officials to CCP strategy and methods.  As Sun Tzu said what is of supreme importance is to attack the enemy's strategy.

13. Judge gives Duque 48 hours to suspend US military operations in Colombia

colombiareports.com · by Adriaan Alsema · July 3, 2020

Oops.  A lack of Colombian government coordination for the Security Force Assistance Brigade.

14. Three Kinds of Power: What the U.S. can -- and can't -- actually do about China.

National Review Online · by Kevin D. Williamson · July 2, 2020

A strong critique of the "alternating current of populist demagoguery.” 

15. You Say You Want a Revolution?

WSJ - by Daniel Henninger – 1 July 2020

The subtitle says it to me.  The benchmark for revolt is the Declaration.  We are at an inflection point in our history. We can further our great American Experiment in pursuit of a more perfect union and we can do that by exercising our unalienable rights.  But 2020 is not another "American Revolution."  We cannot (or should not and must not) throw out our Declaration of Independence and Constitution.  They provide the way forward for us as a nation.

"If ever a time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin."

- Samuel Adams

"Every day is lost in which we do not learn something useful. Man has no nobler or more valuable possession than time." 

- Thomas Jefferson

"Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors, must arm themselves with the power knowledge gives. A popular government without popular information or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy or perhaps both"
- James Madison

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. US nuclear envoy will reportedly visit South Korea and Japan

2. North Korea Reiterates its Silent-Treatment Policy Toward US

3. Pyongyang ups pressure on Washington ahead of Biegun's Seoul visit this week

4.  N. Korean state media refrain from criticizing S. Korea for nearly 2 weeks

5. North Korean ex-diplomat says lack of food, necessities intensifying in isolated nation

6. Can virus-hit North Korea economy survive sanctions?

7. Kim Jong Un's fury stems from his blaming Moon for Hanoi debacle

8. N.K. paper calls for following through with Kim's order for 'maximum alert' against virus

9. Sporadic cluster infections push new virus cases above 60 for 3rd day

10. A new team (opEd on the South Korean security team)

11. Osan city holds annual memorial event honoring fallen U.S. soldiers in 1st Korean War battle

1. US nuclear envoy will reportedly visit South Korea and Japan

Stars and Stripes – by Hooyeon Kim – 5 July 2020

I have been queried about this visit, recent statements from Choe Son-hui and Kim Yo-Jong, the potential for an 'October Surprise" (either a summit or a provocation), and the new South Korean security team.  Here is my consolidated assessment.  This applies to many of the articles posted below.

Despite speculation about an October surprise, I do not think there will be a meeting between Trump and Kim and I do not believe Trump or any US president should meet with Kim until after substantive working level negotiations are held to determine an agreement to bring to both leaders for approval.  No useful or practical agreement can be made at a summit without substantive working level negotiations.  We should remember the US has stood ready for working level negotiations since Singapore 2018 and it is Kim Jong-un who has refused to allow such negotiations.
I also do not think that Kim will agree to a meeting with Trump unless he is guaranteed at least partial lifting of sanctions.  Kim Jong-un has raised expectations among his elite and the military since Singapore 2018 that he could "play" both Moon and Trump and would be able to get sanctions relief while still keeping his nuclear weapons, what I like to call his long con. He is upset with Trump because he has provided Trump with a foreign policy "win" by keeping his promise to not test a nuclear weapon or and ICBM. He believes he has provided Trump political capital while Trump has not returned the favor.  Kim's failure to get sanctions relief has put him under enormous pressure from the elite and the military in Pyongyang.  I think this is one of the reasons for not only Choe Son-hui's recent statement saying there will be no summit with the US but also Kim Yo-jong's threats a couple weeks ago.  And we should never forget the what demand for an end to US hostile policy means.  Kim Jong-un demands an end to the ROK/US alliance, withdrawal of all US troops, and an end to extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan.  
But the important question is what will another summit accomplish?  What would be the goal?  Just to have another photo-op?  Does anyone believe it would help Trump's reelection?  The fact is Kim Jong-un cannot help or hurt Trump's chances for reelection. He is just not that important to the American people and will not impact the election unless he starts a war.  Although a nuclear test or an ICBM launch may cross an undesignated "red line" in Trump's mind the reaction to such provocations will not impact the election because his base is not going to change their votes and his opposition will not either.  Someone should transmit to Kim Jong-un that he will have no effect on the US election. Again, he is just not that important to the American people.  However, a provocation in October is possible because Kim is both desperate for sanctions relief and he will double down on his blackmail diplomacy to use increased tensions and violent provocations to gain political and economic concessions.
I think Mr. Biegun is going to Korea and Japan to coordinate north Korea policy with our allies.  As you know, his South Korean counterpart Lee Do-hoon recently came to Washington. I am sure that Mr Biegun and Mr. Lee want to ensure support for the ROK-US strategy working group that has recently been criticized by some policy makers in South Korea (as well as by the north) who seek to undermine the ROK-US relationship. This working group has been instrumental in ensuring synchronization of north Korean policy behind the scenes. Contrary to South Korean criticism by those who have no idea how important the strategy working group is, it has not been a roadblock to intra-Korean relations.  The reason that intra-Korea relations are not proceeding is because of decisions by Kim Jong-un. He is the one who is preventing improved relations with the South and with the US.
Given Kim Jong-un's recent actions and statements from his sister and Choe Son-hui, The Moon administration needs to reevaluate the peace strategy and reassess the assumptions upon which it is based.  The strategy is based on the erroneous assumption that Kim Jong-un also seeks peace and would engage and negotiate in good faith as a responsible member of the international community.  President Moon needs to build a strategy that is based on an understanding of the true nature of the Kim family regime along with its objective to dominate the Korean peninsula under north Korean rule.  The regime's objectives have not changed in seven decades and the Moon administration must understand that.
Unfortunately, President Moon's new security team indicates that instead of reevaluating the current strategy the administration will double down on it.  The administration has prioritized close contacts with north Korean officials over the ROK/US alliance.  This is unfortunate because neither the ROK nor the US can be successful against north Korea diplomatically or militarily without a strong rock solid ROK/US alliance.  The Moon administration does not appear to have that view.  
The national security team is going to create problems with the alliance and in particular the US intelligence community.  With Mr. Park's appointment as head of the NIS the intelligence liaison relationship is going to suffer.  The intelligence community cannot publicly say this but I imagine the assessment inside the US intelligence community will be that every bit of intelligence shared with the NIS must be considered compromised because it will be shared with north Korea.  Mr. Park's long-standing relationships with north Korean officials places the NIS relationship with the US intelligence community at risk.

2. North Korea Reiterates its Silent-Treatment Policy Toward US

military.com · by Tim Balk · July 5, 2020

Hmm... but they sure do talk about us alot. Sounds like a petulant child.

3. Pyongyang ups pressure on Washington ahead of Biegun's Seoul visit this week

The Korea Times · July 5, 2020

What pressure?  Kim Jong-un has failed to get sanctions relief and I do not think we (and I hope we won't) will give in to the north's blackmail diplomacy and demand for concessions in the form of sanctions relief.  Kim is the one under pressure from his elite and military.  We have the strength and resolve to see the Korean problem (the Korea question) through.  The statements from Choe Sun-hui does not put us under pressure.  We should never again meet with Kim until there are substantive working level negotiations that conclude an agreement that can be brought to the leaders for approval. Despite Bolton and other pundits Trump does need an "October Surprise" summit.  It just will not change the outcome of the election and Kim Jong-un is sadly mistaken if he thinks it will.  Pressure?  What pressure?

4. N. Korean state media refrain from criticizing S. Korea for nearly 2 weeks

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 5, 2020

The last time that happened was in May 1950. We should never forget all warfare is based on deception.  Perhaps it is because they like the new Moon administration security team.

5. North Korean ex-diplomat says lack of food, necessities intensifying in isolated nation

americanmilitarynews.com · by Asia News Network · July 4, 2020

No surprise here but these are indicators to which we must pay close attention, most importantly the effects of the shortages.

6. Can virus-hit North Korea economy survive sanctions?

The Korea Times · July 5, 2020

It could if it would comply with sanctions.  All Kim has to do is comply with the sanctions.

But as noted the north and the regime are very resilient. But what has made the north resilient over the past two decades has been the growth of market activity to replace the failed public distribution system.  That has been dependent on cross border trade and smuggling and the draconian population and resources control measures have really had an impact on trade and smuggling.  Thus, the people are struggling.  This bears watching though as noted, it is likely to continue to muddle through. But Kim is using the coronavirus as an excuse to further crack down on economic activity and the use of foreign currency and too tighten the control over the people.  This could cause nascent resistance which we have never seen on any significant scale.  Again, it bears close watch of the indicators.

7. Kim Jong Un's fury stems from his blaming Moon for Hanoi debacle

asia.nikkei.com – by Yosuke Onchi – 5 July 2020

Interesting analysis.  Failing to get sanctions relief is one of the biggest failures of the three Kims.  And Kim's playbook only has one real option: blackmail diplomacy.  The blaming of President Moon for the failure may seem like a convenient excuse and a way to save face it is really likely an indication that both Kim and Moon fail to understand the Trump administration.  Neither likely considered that Trump would walk out of the Hanoi summit.

8. N.K. paper calls for following through with Kim's order for 'maximum alert' against virus

en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · July 5, 2020

I do not think there should be any doubt about how worried and scared the regime is about the coronavirus.

9.  Sporadic cluster infections push new virus cases above 60 for 3rd day

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 5, 2020

While Korea thinks this is bad, it is of course no comparison to what is happening in the US.  And I think the Koreans will get a handle on this. But we should take from this that even with some of the best public health practices the virus can spread especially if people are not following the correct procedures.

10. A new team (opEd on the South Korean security team)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

The Moon administration doubles down on the peace strategy.

11. Osan city holds annual memorial event honoring fallen U.S. soldiers in 1st Korean War battle

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 5, 2020

We should never forget Task Force Smith.

"If ever a time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin."

- Samuel Adams

"Every day is lost in which we do not learn something useful. Man has no nobler or more valuable possession than time." 

- Thomas Jefferson

"Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors, must arm themselves with the power knowledge gives. A popular government without popular information or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy or perhaps both"
- James Madison

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. 'The Outpost' Review: At War, in a Worst-Case Scenario

2. The Case for Kissinger

3.  The Next American Terrorist

4. Duckworth to halt 1,100 military promotions if Pentagon retaliates against Vindman

5.  The growing need for a modern aircraft platform for special forces

6.  U.S. Steps up Military Training in Japan

7. Renewing America's Commitment to the Indo-Pacific

8. What Poland wants when it comes to US troops

9. Germany to Shake Up Special-Forces Unit Harboring Far-Right Militants

10. Forgetting Counterinsurgency, Again: Lessons from Reconstruction and Operation Iraqi Freedom

11. Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action

12. HASC Passes NDAA 56-0: 'Yet Hope Remains, While The Company Is True'

13. China urges certain countries to stop using human rights to meddle in others' domestic affairs 

14. Taiwan to re-open consulate on strategically-located U.S. island of Guam

15. The Week America Lost Control of the Pandemic

16. The 2020 War on the Rocks Summer Fiction Reading List 

1. 'The Outpost' Review: At War, in a Worst-Case Scenario

The New York Times · by Glenn Kenny · July 2, 2020

Opening today.  An interesting cast.  This is a positive review.

2.  The Case for Kissinger

The National Interest · by Jacob Heilbrunn · June 30, 2020

For those who love Kissinger and for those who do not.  Some food for thought.

3. The Next American Terrorist

thecipherbrief.com · by Bruce Hoffman· July 2, 2020

From one of our nation's foremost scholars on terrorism (and my old boss). I am sure I will receive comments about what some people think may have been omitted.

4. Duckworth to halt 1,100 military promotions if Pentagon retaliates against Vindman

Axios · by Orion Rummler

My promotion to Major was delayed because the Senate held up the confirmation of all Services' promotion lists for all ranks for Tailhook back in 1992. But what I am interested in knowing is whether Vindman was actually selected by the promotion board for promotion to Colonel. It is certainly not automatic just because he worked on the NSC. He is a FAO and the selection rate for promotion to Colonel as a FAO is not that high (I think we are talking about 38%-45% versus 60% for Infantry (which was a couple of years ago). I can almost guarantee no one said to the members of the promotion board to either select him or not select him. So if the board did not select him what is Congress going to do? And if he was selected I am not sure what authority a Service Secretary or the SECDEF would have to remove him without cause. Obviously the services spend a lot of time vetting all the selectees after the list is made before it goes to Senate confirmation and anyone with bad paper that was not presented to the board might be cause for removal but so far as I know the actions Vindman took regarding testifying before Congress were not in contravention of any military regulation. So how does the SECDEF respond? I did not or will not remove him? Will he caveat and say if he is on the list I did not or will not remove him? Or I do not have the authority to remove him (I think only the

5. The growing need for a modern aircraft platform for Special Forces

The Hill · July 2, 2020

I am sure I will be taken to task by the purists as the title says "special forces" but the article is talking about all special operations forces.  As everyone knows there is only one Special Forces (AKA Green Berets) in the US.  But editors, scholars, and journalists use the generic "special forces" to describe what the US calls special operations forces.  We can tilt at windmills or scream into the wind to try to change people's minds, but the journalist and academic community are not going to subscribe to what they consider a nuanced view of Special Forces and Special Operations Force that they feel will waste words and distract readers from the message (as I have distracted the reader here from reading this important article).

6. U.S. Steps up Military Training in Japan

english.chosun.com July 03, 2020

Another use of the term special forces to describe Air Force and Navy special operations forces in this article.

Note the comment from the former Korean military attaché to Japan, [the US and Japan] "conducted joint drills with the U.S. military for a total of 406 days of last year, up more than 40 percent from 2016." Since this is a Korean publication it goes on to note the cancellation of major Korean and US training exercises this year.

7. Renewing America's Commitment to the Indo-Pacific

thediplomat.com · Jim Inhofe and Cory Gardner · July 2, 2020

Some members of Congress are trying to support a real Asian Pivot.  I guess a new acronym, PDI, will have to become ingrained in the lexicon.

8. What Poland wants when it comes to US troops

atlanticcouncil.org · Teri Schultz· July 2, 2020

Deterrence and Defense? (and not caught between the US and Germany)

9. Germany to Shake Up Special-Forces Unit Harboring Far-Right Militants

WSJ · Bojan Pancevski · July 1, 2020

(Another example of the use of "Special Forces" this time with a hyphen).

The reason is significant - ties to right wing neo-Nazi extremism.

10. Forgetting Counterinsurgency, Again: Lessons from Reconstruction and Operation Iraqi Freedom

mwi.usma.edu · by Alexandre Caillot · July 2, 2020

There are good lessons and bad lessons.  We must learn them all and never forget. Remember when all COIN doctrine was purged from Army schools in 1975 when we said we will never fight another war like Vietnam again?

Note the reference to Michael Noonan's forthcoming book.  I was one the reviewers of his manuscript and it will be a mist read when it is published.

11. Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action

ndupress.ndu.edu David H. Ucko and Thomas A. Marks  July 2, 2020

The 73 page strategic monograph can be downloaded here: 

David Ucko and Thomas Marks will not let us forget Irregular Warfare.

12. HASC Passes NDAA 56-0: 'Yet Hope Remains, While The Company Is True'

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. and Paul McLeary · July 02, 2020

13. China urges certain countries to stop using human rights to meddle in others' domestic affairs 

xinhuanet.com

Or the Chinese Communist Party could stop abusing the human rights of its citizens.

14. Taiwan to re-open consulate on strategically-located U.S. island of Guam

Reuters · by Ben Blanchard · July 3, 2020

The CCP will not be happy about this.

15. The Week America Lost Control of the Pandemic

The Atlantic · by Robinson Meyer · July 2, 2020

This will be interpreted politically and upset many.

16. The 2020 War on the Rocks Summer Fiction Reading List 

warontherocks.com · by WOTR Staff · July 3, 2020

My two recommendations are below (and of course both on Korea).

------------------

"Nothing is more wonderful than the art of being free, but nothing is harder to learn how to use than freedom."

- Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

"The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn." 

- Alvin Toffler

From 1776 (On writing the Declaration of Independence)
John Dickinson: Mr. Jefferson, are you seriously suggesting that we publish a paper declaring to all the world that an illegal rebellion is, in reality, a legal one?
Dr. Benjamin Franklin: Oh, Mr. Dickinson, I'm surprised at you. You should know that rebellion is always legal in the first person, such as "our rebellion." It is only in the third person - "their rebellion" - that it is illegal.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Four-term ruling party lawmaker named unification minister, NIS chief as national security director

2. Coming Soon: Another Donald Trump - Kim Jong-Un Summit This Year?

3. Kim Jong-Un says North Korea prevented coronavirus from making inroads

4. U.S. envoy to visit South Korea to discuss stalled North Korea nuclear talks

5. Kim Jong-Un Praises North Korea's "Shining Success" Against COVID-19: Report

6.  Kim Jong Un Scolds North Korea Cadres for Complacency on Virus

7.  Top DPRK leader guides Political Bureau meeting over COVID-19 protection measures

8. Kim Jong-un declares 'maximum alert' of coronavirus despite reporting no cases

9. Pres. Moon should lose obsession to mediate for the North

10. Kim Jong-Un says 'far-sighted leadership' prevented COVID-19 from making inroads

11. Gov't postpones final decision on relocation site of Daegu military airport

12. Bolton says Trump could meet Kim again to help reelection

13. Korea, US to Cancel Another Joint Drill

1. Four-term ruling party lawmaker named unification minister, NIS chief as national security director

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · July 3, 2020

President Moon is doubling down on his peace strategy.  His new team is well connected to north Korea.  At least Im Jeong Seok (Lim Jong-suk) was not appointed as the head of the National Intelligence Service. However, he and Chung Eui-yong are now special advisers for diplomatic and security affairs.  This will probably allow I’m to prepare to run for President to replace Moon.

Despite the words to cooperate more closely with the US because it is "our ally," Suh Hoon, the director of national security says he will not neglect communication with our neighbors.  I expect him to reach out to China soon.

I fear further divergence in the alliance.

2. Coming Soon: Another Donald Trump - Kim Jong-un Summit This Year?

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · July 2, 2020

The only leader who really wants another summit is President Moon who somehow thinks this will jump start intra-Korea relations to support his "peace strategy."

I think it is a wasted effort.  I think there is little chance of it happening. But the more important question is what will it accomplish?  What positive effect will it have?
 

I think it is unlikely to happen for two reasons:

Frist, while some of Trump's partisan political advisors might think it could be a useful distraction - the professional political advisers know it will not change votes and will only support campaign rhetoric with the base while the opposition will use it to their benefit.  The only way it could have some impact is if a real substantive agreement could be reached but even then given all the other issues in the campaign it will still not have a significant effect and will not change votes in a meaningful way.  In addition, the foreign policy professionals will strongly recommend against a summit but we know Trump marches to the beat of his own drum.

I do not think Kim would agree to a summit for two reasons. First he is upset with Trump because he has provided him with political benefits by promising to halt rests of nuclear weapons and ICBM and he has kept that promise.  This allows Trump to declare a foreign policy win.  Kim has received nothing in return.  His failure to obtain sanctions relief has put him under enormous pressure.

The second reason is related to the first. Unless the US makes a promise to provide sanctions relief in return for a meeting Kim will not likely agree to one.  He cannot attend a fourth meeting and come away with nothing again.

My recommendation is that President Moon and his administration stop pursuing this.  I hope this was the final attempt. It makes him seem desperate. It makes him seem out of touch with the reality of both Kim and Trump and their relationship.  I really do believe that Moon has to completely reassess his strategy to deal with Kim Jong-un as he really is and not as he would wish him to be.  

Unfortunately this is unlikely now with the appointment of Moon's new security team. I expect they will be doubling down on Moon's peace strategy.

3. Kim Jong Un says North Korea prevented coronavirus from making inroads

Reuters · by Sangmi Cha· July 2, 2020

Reading between the lines I think that the use of 'inroads" means that the coronavirus has penetrated the north.  Given the politburo meeting today and the recent report on the paratyphoid fever outbreak in 1st Corps I think they are covering up an outbreak.

There is a lot of reporting on this meeting today.

4. U.S. envoy to visit South Korea to discuss stalled North Korea nuclear talks

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Josh Smith · July 3, 2020

The DEPSECSTATE has his work cut out for him with the Moon Administration's new security team.  I hope he is not walking into a near ambush and all the important behind the scenes work he has done (e.g., strategy working group) is not undone by this new team.

5. Kim Jong-Un Praises North Korea's "Shining Success" Against COVID-19: Report

ndtv.com · by Agence France-Presse

He doth "praise" too much. (Apologies to Shakespeare). The only success may be how well they have covered up the outbreaks.  But Kim might learn from the US, it may be too early to take a victory lap.

6.  Kim Jong Un Scolds North Korea Cadres for Complacency on Virus

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · July 3, 2020

Regarding Kim's reappearance after a few weeks: This is an interesting development.  If the report is accurate and if the discussion was about a  COVID-19 response I think it is very likely they have had an outbreak within north Korea or they expect to have one soon.  Although they have implemented draconian population and resources control measures to prevent the spread of the infection it is likely that COVID 19 has penetrated the north's boundaries. We have seen a bit of anecdotal reporting such as the report of a paratyphoid fever outbreak in the 1st Corps area along the eastern part of the DMZ. (https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korea-1st-corps-faces-paratyphoid-fever-outbreak/)  All the frontline corps have been ordered to disinfect everything in their area of operations.  This makes me think perhaps they are having an outbreak of COVID 19 but do not want to admit it either internal or external audiences.  And if there is a breakout within the military it will be especially problematic for the regime if it cannot be contained.  If there is a breakdown in the three chains of control of the military (traditional, political, ands security) we could see serious problems for the regime it is occurs on a widespread basis since the regime is dependent on a coherent military capability and support for the regime in order for Kim Jong-un and the Paektu bloodline to survive.

As to Kim's extended absences it seems like he is working one day and then taking a three day holiday before he comes back to work the next day.  I think we can only speculate on the reason for this.  We have heard the many rumors about his ill health and alleged botched operations but the simplest explanation may be he is quarantining to protect himself from exposure to COVID -19.  He is only making appearances when he has to give orders and direction or if the rumor mill about his health becomes too active.
Despite our inability to know what is happening with any certainty, the ROK/US alliance must remain vigilant, observing for indications and warnings for the full spectrum of conflict and contingencies.  Now is not the time to be distracted with ROK/US alliance "friction" such as the SMA stalemate and OPCON transitions and other alliance issues or President Moon's peace strategy which Kim Jong-un has proved is ineffective and unattainable. The alliance must be focused on the existential threat from the north.

7. Top DPRK leader guides Political Bureau meeting over COVID-19 protection measures

xinhuanet.com

This is a Chinese Communist Party report on the north Korean Politburo meeting.  I like the title.  So Kim Jong-un is the "top DPRK leader."  Would there be any confusion over who is the leader of north Korea? 

8. Kim Jong-un declares 'maximum alert' of coronavirus despite reporting no cases

Express · by Melanie Kaidan · July 3, 2020

The closed borders have been helping of course.  But the conclusion of the article notes the cost of defecting is rising and that to cross the Tumen River (the border with Russia) it costs about 10,000,000 Korean won.  I doubt very much smugglers and brokers are taking Korean won.  They most likely take only foreign currency (which is one reason the regime is trying to gain control of and eliminate the use of it throughout the north). 

9. Pres. Moon should lose obsession to mediate for the North

donga.com · July 3, 2020

I concur.  Not because the President is not trying as hard as he can but because Kim Jong-un just will not allow such mediation and it is naive to think that he will.  It is also naïve to think he has given up on his objectives, his long con, or his political warfare strategy to dominate the peninsula (by force if necessary and the conditions are right).  Plus it is unseemly when there is the appearance of taking the north Korean side which many if not all his new advisers can be expected to do when dealing with the US.

10. Kim Jong Un says 'far-sighted leadership' prevented COVID-19 from making inroads

republicworld.com · Kunal Gaurav· July 3, 2020

I offer this seemingly repetitive report to illustrate the creativity of all these headline editors and their variations on describing the north Korean politburo meeting as well as to emphasize the amount of news this meeting and Kim's reappearance after a few weeks is generating.  Everyone is tracking the question: "Where is Waldo's friend, Kim Jong-un. 

11. Gov't postpones final decision on relocation site of Daegu military airport

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 3, 2020

I assume this is K2 Air Base.  It has long been a challenge bringing in wide body aircraft to this base especially when E/160th SOAR was based there and we were rotating MH-47s from there to Afghanistan early in OEF Afghanistan (and supporting OEF Philippines early on as well).  I hope this does not turn out to be like Futenma in Okinawa.  But probably not since this is a ROK Air Force base and US units are only tenants for exercises. Then again the local governments and population have a vote which is of course the same problem in Okinawa.

12. Bolton says Trump could meet Kim again to help reelection

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · July 3, 2020

I hope everyone knows that such a meeting will have no effect on the election.  It will not change the minds of Democrats, Independents nor of the Trump base.  Yes it will provide a campaign talking point but the opposition will also spin it negatively. I am sure both the campaign team and the national security professionals are advising against this.  And of course Kim Jong-un gets a vote and I just do not see him coming to a meeting without absolute guarantees that he is going to get sanctions relief and we absolutely should do no such thing.

13. Korea, US to Cancel Another Joint Drill

english.chosun.com

Oh no.  I missed this.  I am afraid we are going to have some readiness challenges at the ROK/US Combined Forces Command.  Yes to be with a thousand of your best friends inside a bunker for two weeks will be a coronavirus petri dish.

-------------------

"Nothing is more wonderful than the art of being free, but nothing is harder to learn how to use than freedom."

- Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

"The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn." 

- Alvin Toffler

From 1776 (On writing the Declaration of Independence)
John Dickinson: Mr. Jefferson, are you seriously suggesting that we publish a paper declaring to all the world that an illegal rebellion is, in reality, a legal one?
Dr. Benjamin Franklin: Oh, Mr. Dickinson, I'm surprised at you. You should know that rebellion is always legal in the first person, such as "our rebellion." It is only in the third person - "their rebellion" - that it is illegal.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. U.S. readies sanctions on China over rights abuses in Xinjiang

2. China's software stalked Uighurs earlier and more widely, researchers learn

3. Taiwan practices 'enemy annihilation' after China steps up activity

4. Meet the global leadership restrainers: Making America second-rate again

5. Little evidence that protests spread coronavirus in US

6. Dollar's dominance to slowly melt away over coming year: Reuters poll

7. FBI: Record-shattering surge in gun checks as BLM, 2020 election, virus boost sales

8. As China strengthens grip on Hong Kong, Taiwan sees a threat

9. SASC pushes cyber overhaul in New NDAA

10. Drone-era warfare shows the operational limits of air defense systems

11. Big pay raise, limits on troop moves highlight defense budget measure

12. Army's senior officer ranks are not diverse enough, General says

13. Don't allow a vocal fringe minority to cut our much-needed defense investments

14. Here's how to stop the virus from winning

15. The Mercenary who botched a Maduro Coup is lying low in Florida

16. History tells us that ideological 'purity spirals' rarely end well

17. The Korean War and the Rebirth of ARSOF

1. U.S. readies sanctions on China over rights abuses in Xinjiang

Bloomberg · by Nick Wadhams · July 1, 2020

The Chinese Communist Party must be held accountable for these crimes.

2. China's software stalked Uighurs earlier and more widely, researchers learn

The New York Times · by Paul Mozur · July 1, 2020

This should not be a surprise. But again the CCP must be held accountable.

3. Taiwan practices 'enemy annihilation' after China steps up activity

uk.reuters.com 

A lot of Taiwan military training is making the news. It seems like the Taiwanese are conducting influence operations.

4. Meet the global leadership restrainers: Making America second-rate again

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

My boss takes on the "restrainers/retrenchers."

5. Little evidence that protests spread coronavirus in US

AP · by MIKE STOBBE and NICKY FORSTER · July 1, 2020

This should spark some partisan commentary from both sides.

6. Dollar's dominance to slowly melt away over coming year: Reuters poll

uk.reuters.com · by Rahul Karunakar

Our economic instrument of power could whither. This will make our current economic problems even worse.

7. FBI: Record-shattering surge in gun checks as BLM, 2020 election, virus boost sales

Washington Examiner · by Paul Bedard · July 1, 2020

Some interesting data. It is not the time to stock provisions after the crisis occurs!

8. As China strengthens grip on Hong Kong, Taiwan sees a threat

The New York Times · by Javier C. Hernández · July 1, 2020

As it should. There is probably no issue that dominates Chinese political and military thinking than Taiwan.  

Taiwan is going to need resistance and resilience in the face of the PRC threat.

9. SASC pushes cyber overhaul in New NDAA

breakingdefense.com · by Kelsey Atherton

A "cyber pandemic." Imagine if we lost access to the cyber domain during the coronavirus pandemics?  This from the conclusion is surprising, "Coordinating a cyber strategy within the United States, and putting specific people in charge of it, is a major first step to having a response ready to go.." Is it true do not have coordinated cyber strategy and we have no one in charge?

10. Drone-era warfare shows the operational limits of air defense systems

realcleardefense.com · by John Parachini and Peter Wilson

Drones (UAS) and cyber. Two capabilities we have pioneered but for which we lack adequate defensive capabilities. And air defense has been one of our most underinvested capabilities and air defense against drones (UAS) appears to be a very difficult challenge.

11. Big pay raise, limits on troop moves highlight defense budget measure

Defense News · by Leo Shane III, Joe Gould · July 1, 2020

We must take care of the troops and their families. But I can hear the complaint from the bean counters. Personnel costs are the biggest part of our budget.

12. Army's senior officer ranks are not diverse enough, General says

military.com · by Matthew Cox · July 1, 2020

Sadly this has long been the case.  

I do not know if this is true but I had a senior officer tell me that most generals are identified very early in their career at around the Captain/Navy Lieutenant (O3) rank and it is reflected and it is reflected consistently in their evaluation and fitness reports. I confirmed this anecdotally when I was the SF branch chief and I reviewed records for promotion boards. It was very evident who would become a general officer after looking at their career long evaluation record. I mention that because this is not an issue that can quickly be fixed unless there is a cultural change. It is a 20+ year process to make a general officer. I also participated in a study after retirement with a think tank and we had representatives from all four services review promotion records for their respective services to select for general officer based on how we understood our own service culture for promotions. The mock records were completely devoid of any identifying information as to gender or race. We had a group of 15-20 Army officers (retired O6s- to O8s) who were very diverse in terms or gender, race, and military branch and it was amazing how in synch we all were in recommendations and even in the rank order of the promotion list.

13. Don't allow a vocal fringe minority to cut our much-needed defense investments

dailysignal.com · by Sen. Jim Inhofe · July 2, 2020

We are going to be very fiscally constrained for some time. I think there are going to be significant challenges to defense funding levels this year and for years to come.

14. Here's how to stop the virus from winning

nationalgeographic.com · by Nsikan Akpan · June 26, 2020

I am amazed how many people are in denial about this crisis. I see on social media all the rationalizations and the use of statistics to say this is not a problem. And people are still comparing this to the flu.

And of course, none of those people will take the time to read this and if they do they will continue to deny the problem.

Graphics at the link.

15. The Mercenary who botched a Maduro Coup is lying low in Florida

Bloomberg · by Brendan Borrell · July 1, 2020

What a sad story and an embarrassment to our Regiment.

16. History tells us that ideological 'purity spirals' rarely end well

phys.org · by Richard Whatmore and Katrin Redfern, The Conversation

Some history to reflect upon. And both sides of the political spectrum should take heed of Balwain's words in the opening quote. I see this "purity" every day on social media on both extreme sides of the political spectrum.

17. The Korean War and the Rebirth of ARSOF

shadowspear.com · June 30, 2020

And some final history reading for today.

-----------

"There are many men of principle in both parties in America, but there is no party of principle. 

- Alexis de Tocqueville

"I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical." 

- Thomas Jefferson

"A general dissolution of principles and manners will more surely overthrow the liberties of America than the whole force of the common enemy. While the people are virtuous they cannot be subdued; but when once they lose their virtue then will be ready to surrender their liberties to the first external or internal invader."

- Samuel Adams

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Why ignoring human rights in U.S.-DPRK diplomacy is a grave mistake

2. Bolton's fault? Think again (Korea)

3. USFK commander calls for major combined drills against evolving N.K. threats

4. US commander reaffirms successful handover of wartime role

5. N. Korean broker exiled for handling defector remittances

6. Does the Sunchon phosphatic fertilizer plant produce uranium: Not likely

7. Reflections on the Legacy of the Korean War

8. Phishing emails targeting North Korea watchers grow increasingly sophisticated

9. Elite airborne troop of U.S. conducts descent training in Guam

10. N. Korea dials up recruitment drive for construction workers

11. Moon to reshuffle diplomacy, security teams

12. More clues to what's going on with Kim Jong Un's health

13. Korean War Lessons: What war 70 years ago in Korea taught America

14. N. Korea's 1st Corps faces paratyphoid fever outbreak

15. Man accused of leaking state secrets sent to political prisoner camp

16. The case for a different approach to confronting North Korea

17. FM says S. Korea, U.S. discussed concerns over 'working group' operation amid N.K. criticism

18. Korea spends most on U.S. lobbying

19. Top Moon advisor calls White House diplomacy 'a circus'

20. Kim Jong-un threatens war against South Korea after defectors drop thousands of 'dirty' pics of wife Ri Sol-ju

21. North Korean anthem played at the 70th Anniversary of Korean War commemoration in South Korea

22. China's border corps conducts anti-crime exercises near North Korea

1. Why ignoring human rights in U.S.-DPRK diplomacy is a grave mistake

HRNK · by Jeune Kim · July 1, 2020

I cannot say this enough: Human rights is a national security issue in addition to being a moral imperative. Kim Jong-un must deny the human rights of the Korean people in the north in order to remain in power.

We should remember President Reagan and the Soviet Union. Against the advice of many of his advisors, he included human rights in his negotiations with Soviet leaders.

A very nice piece from Ms. Kim.

2. Bolton's fault? Think again (Korea)

koreajoongangdaily · by Yeh Young-june 

An interesting OpEd. This is not a critique of Bolton's book so much as it uses Bolton’s book to criticise Moon Jae-in. This is the key point of the OpEd is in explaining the failure of the Hanoi Summit.

3. USFK commander calls for major combined drills against evolving N.K. threats

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 1, 2020

Good words from the Commander (CINCUNC/CFC/USFK). I concur. The priority must on readiness of the ROK/US CFC while still working toward OPCON transition. Despite all the other training that takes place among the components the Theater Headquarters lost valuable training time due to the coronavirus and cancellation of the Dongmeng expertise in February/March. 

I wish the ROK press would use the title of the Commander of the ROK/Combined Forces Command rather than USFK. USFK is a sub-unified command under USINDOPACOM and a force provider to the ROK/US CFC. It is not a warfighting HQ. But most importantly the ROK/US CFC is equally "co-owed" by the ROK. In preparation for the OPCON transition and the eventual ROK commanding general of the ROK/US CFC the ROK press should be focused on this headquarters because it is the most important organization for the defense of South Korea.

Both the ROK and US governments need to implement an education initiative to inform the press, pundits, political leaders, and population about the OPCON transition so that when it takes place everyone is relatively well informed.

Note also the CINC has to play to the "wildly speculative" rumors about troop withdrawal.

4. US commander reaffirms successful handover of wartime role

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · July 1, 2020

OPCON Transition is an important step in the evolution of the ROK/US Alliance and the ROK/US Combined forces Command.

It is conditions-based for the very reason we are experiencing right now. The Coronavirus interrupted training with an effect on current readiness. That must be corrected which may have to come at the expense of a desired timeline to make the transition. The transition must progress in step with sustaining readiness so there are no gaps, seams, or weaknesses in our combined capabilities and readiness as we progress forward.

5. N. Korean broker exiled for handling defector remittances

dailynk.com · by Kang Mi Jin · July 1, 2020

This is very important. Unfortunately, this woman and her family are suffering. But this illustrates the importance of cell phones and remittances. There is a lot of connectivity with the outside world. If remittances can get in, so can information and then it can be disseminated throughout the country via the 6.5 million smart phones in the North.

6. Does the Sunchon phosphatic fertilizer plant produce uranium: Not likely

38north.org · by Olli Heinonen · July 1, 2020

A chemistry class for us all. But after getting through all the chemistry the conclusion tells us that while it is possible they could be producing uranium there, there are no telltale signs of production.

7. Reflections on the Legacy of the Korean War

ncnk.org · by Keith Luse · June 26, 2020

Reflections include thoughts about the military industrial complex and of course the possibility of miscalculation on either side.

8. Phishing emails targeting North Korea watchers grow increasingly sophisticated

nknews.org · by Min Chao Choy · July 1, 2020

Public service announcement for all Korea Watchers: practice good cyber hygiene and cyber civil defense.

9. Elite airborne troop of U.S. conducts descent training in Guam

donga.com · July 2, 2020

A good force projection demonstration. Kim Jong-un, pay attention (and try to get a good night's sleep) I am reminded of that great Airborne theorist Benjamin Franklin: 

And where is the Prince who can afford so to cover his Country with Troops for its Defense, as that Ten Thousand Men descending from the Clouds, might not in many Places do an infinite deal of Mischief, before a Force could be brought together to repel them?

Franklin knew what little groups of paratroopers (LGOP) could do.

"After the demise of the best Airborne plan, a most terrifying effect occurs on the battlefield. This effect is known as the Rule of LGOPs. This is, in its purest form, small groups of 19- year old American Paratroopers. They are well-trained, armed-to-the-teeth and lack serious adult supervision. They collectively remember the Commander's intent as "March to the sound of the guns and kill anyone who is not dressed like you..." ...or something like that. Happily they go about the day's work...

10. N. Korea dials up recruitment drive for construction workers

dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · July 1, 2020

This is a pretty amazing anecdote or maybe a data point. 7000 turned away for being in poor health. Note the comment about the growth of hunger among families in the concluding paragraph.

11. Moon to reshuffle diplomacy, security teams

The Korea Times · July 1, 2020

Oh no! This is terrible if it comes to pass. Making Im Jong-seok the head of the National Intelligence Service will be like giving the keys to then henhouse to the fox. This will be very dangerous.

I wonder about our intelligence liaison relationship since Im is a former radical (or maybe still one) who went to prison for violation the National Security Law for his actions related to North Korea). I am sure the US intelligence community will be very reluctant to share the best intelligence with the NIS if he is at the helm.

And if Lee In-young becomes Unification Minister it is suspected he will try to disband the ROK/US strategy working group. Hopefully MOFA will block him since the working group falls under it and not under the Ministry of Unification.

But this is very troubling for the alliance if these two men are appointed to the NIS and MOU.

12. More clues to what's going on with Kim Jong Un's health

dailynk.com · by Ahn Jong Sik · July 1, 2020

I love Daily NK but recall the original health rumors began with an anonymous source reported by it. The report is what spun up CNN and others with speculation that he may have died in April.

But this is very interesting "analysis" based on interpreting the advanced welding competition at the fertilizer factory.

13. Korean War Lessons: What war 70 years ago in Korea taught America

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · July 1, 2020

I do not agree with very much of Doug Bandow's analysis. The most egregious "lesson" in this list is to "make a decision and stick to it" (which seems to conflict with changing conditions may require changes to policy and strategy). He describes this lesson in terms of the US withdrawal of US troops and ultimately Acheson's announcement that Korea was outside the US sphere of influence (and MacArthur saying Korea was not essential for US defense). I interpret this to mean he would have been happy throwing Korea under the bus in 1950 and allowing it to be dominated by the Communists. Please think about that and how the course of history would have been so altered.

That said every one of these lessons would be very useful for debate in an academic setting. There are many lessons to be learned though I do not think all those lessons would find agreement with Bandow's interpretation.

14. N. Korea's 1st Corps faces paratyphoid fever outbreak

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · July 1, 2020

The front line corps are laid out along the DMZ from west to east:  4 - 2 -  5 - 1.  So the 1st Corps is the eastern most corps.

This is significant if they are talking about the outbreak affecting combat readiness. Note also what happens to family members of 1st Corps soldiers.

But what really concerns me is that all the frontline corps are disinfecting everything to prevent an outbreak. I wonder if this "fever" is "code" for a coronavirus outbreak. Is there a coronavirus outbreak within the military? If so it could be very destabilizing. We had better be carefully observing for indicators and dusting off the contingency plans. Recall regime collapse is defined as the regime's loss of central governing effectiveness - the inability to rule the entire territory in the north from Pyongyang, combined with the loss of coherency and support of the military.  A coronavirus outbreak could lead to that loss of coherency - a breakdown of the military's multiple chains of control. Fasten your seat belts.

15. Man accused of leaking state secrets sent to political prisoner camp

dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin · July 2, 2020

Perhaps this is a case of "cell phone spying." Interesting that a Chinese broker would be asking about new munitions factories being built in Chongjin.

16. The case for a different approach to confronting North Korea

Small Wars Journal · by Shawn P. Creamer 

Here are my thoughts to complement Shawn Creamer's thought provoking analysis: Unification Options and Scenarios: Assisting A Resistance 

17. FM says S. Korea, U.S. discussed concerns over 'working group' operation amid N.K. criticism

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · July 2, 2020

It is too bad the ROK/US  MOFA/DOS strategy working group has become a target of domestic criticism. But the criticism really emanates from the ruling party. It is Moon's own administration and party members who criticize it. They actually are using it as the lightning rod for the failure of Moon's peace strategy claiming the working group is blocking South Korean efforts. Instead of blaming the working group (or the US) they need to place the blame where it belongs, on Kim Jong-un. He is the one who is blocking implementation of Moon's vision. It is the erroneous assumptions that the Moon administration has made about Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime that has undermined Moon's vision and strategy. The assumptions have proven false (that Kim would seek peace and reconciliation) so the policies and strategies must change.

It is also problematic because Moon's supporters are now much more open about expressing their true intent about the alliance. We are in for difficult days ahead. And the only one who benefits is Kim Jong-un.

18. Korea spends most on U.S. lobbying

english.chosun.com 

That is quite a bit of money from Korea, Japan, and Israel.

19. Top Moon advisor calls White House diplomacy 'a circus'

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Thank you Moon Chung-in. You continue to show that you are no friend of the ROK/US alliance.  But I do fear we are heading to the perfect storm with the alliance. Dark clouds are looming and the winds of change can be felt. 

20. Kim Jong-un threatens war against South Korea after defectors drop thousands of 'dirty' pics of wife Ri Sol-ju

meaww.com · by Kunal Dey · July 1, 2020

This is very likely disinformation and active measures conducted with Russian support. I have it on good authority the escapees in South Korea did not send leaflets as described in these Russian reports. Of course they cannot show us them due to the convenient excuse that it would further insult Ri Sol-ju and infuriate Kim Jong-un. But this is a good strategy to undermine the legitimacy of our escapee organizations who are working hard to get the truth into north Korea.

21. North Korean anthem played at the 70th Anniversary of Korean War commemoration in South Korea

eastasiaresearch.org · June 30, 2020

North Korea subversion at work? The work of useful idiots? Someone's attempt to show solidarity with the North? Is this part of a peace and reconciliation vision? Is this preparation for a unified national Anthem?

Video at the link. Listen for yourself.

We should never forget this is an ideological war between the north and South Korea. The people on the peninsula must make a choice between the Shared ROK/US and values and the "values" of the Kim family regime.

South Korea and the United States share the values of freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights.

The "values" of the Kim family regime are Juche/Kimilsungism, the Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, and the denial of human rights to sustain the regime in power.

The choice belongs to the people.

22. China's border corps conducts anti-crime exercises near North Korea

upi.com · July 1, 2020

This could be an indicator that China assesses something is happening inside North Korea and it must prepare.

-----------

"There are many men of principle in both parties in America, but there is no party of principle. 

- Alexis de Tocqueville

"I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical." 

- Thomas Jefferson

"A general dissolution of principles and manners will more surely overthrow the liberties of America than the whole force of the common enemy. While the people are virtuous they cannot be subdued; but when once they lose their virtue then will be ready to surrender their liberties to the first external or internal invader."

- Samuel Adams

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Balloon-drop porn smears Kim's wife: Russian envoy

2. Kim Jong-Un was infuriated by 'dirty' depiction of his wife

3. Trump-Kim summit unlikely before U.S. presidential election: U.S. envoy

4. U.S. to leave door open to diplomacy with N.Korea

5. U.S. nat'l security adviser calls on N. Korea to stop provocations, return to dialogue

6. South Korea's Moon calls for U.S.-North Korea summit before U.S. election

7. Moon's adviser urges N.K. to explain demolition of Kaesong liaison office

8. Only Korean unification can end the Korean War for good

9.  Kim Yo Jong threats delayed food aid to North Korea, reports say

10. S. Korea reaffirms commitment to peace on 1st anniversary of Trump-Kim DMZ meeting

11. N. Korea's planned leaflet drop is a no-go, for now

12. Number of incoming N. Korean defectors hits all-time low in Q2: unification ministry

13. N. Korea's grain imports soar in April amid chronic food shortages: data

14, Kim Jong-Un goes missing for weeks again as rumours over 'death' return

15. Kim Jong-Un and the persistence of North Korea

16. Korea-Japan ties get even worse

17. North Korea, Bolton, and a prosecutor make life hard for Moon Jae-In

1. Balloon-drop porn smears Kim's wife: Russian envoy

Asia Times · by Bradley K. Martin · July 1, 2020

Pot, meet kettle. South Korean propaganda is no match for the ugliness of North Korean propaganda.  Here are some North Korean leaflets from 2016.

That said, we can do better than this.  We do not have to stoop to the regime’s level.

2. Kim Jong Un was infuriated by 'dirty' depiction of his wife

Daily Mail · by AFP · June 30, 2020

Hmmm.... I do wonder what the pictures looked like. They are not below. But the previous ones shown below are no match for the ugliness of North Korean propaganda. Nobody does it "better" than the party's Propaganda and Agitation Department.

3. Trump-Kim summit unlikely before U.S. presidential election: U.S. envoy

Yonhap News Agency · by Lee Haye-Ah · June 30, 2020

I concur. To what end? For either the North or the US? I will keep beating this drum. There should be no meeting until working level negotiations conclude a substantive agreement that can be brought to a summit for approval by the leaders. Summits are not the time for detailed or working level negotiations. But Kim has refused to allow this. And from Kim's perspective he has received nothing from the two summits and the one meeting in Panmunjom a year ago, so it is unlikely he will agree to a summit unless he has a guarantee of subnational sanctions relief.

4. U.S. to leave door open to diplomacy with N.Korea

The Chosun Ilbo · by Kim Eun-Joong · July 01, 2020

Everyone should understand we have never closed the door to diplomacy. We have always been willing to talk. It is Kim Jong-Un who has refused to do so and to allow substantive working level negotiations which is where the hard work has to be done. Kim thinks he can play Moon and Trump but must soon realize that we are not going to provide sanctions relief as a concession merely to bring the regime to the negotiating table. It is time for Kim to put on his big boy pants and grow up and have the courage to conduct real diplomacy rather than hide behind his nuclear weapons and soldiers. A real leader would conduct real diplomacy.

5. U.S. nat'l security adviser calls on N. Korea to stop provocations, return to dialogue

Yonhap News Agency · by Lee Haye-Ah · July 01, 2020

The NSA is right. It does not get any clearer than this: "we are committed to engagement." Kim is not. He is committed to blackmail diplomacy and his long con in support of his long-term political warfare strategy based on subversion, coercion/extortion, and use of force. Kim should have the courage to allow talks. He is the root of all problems. But we in the US will always get the blame.

6. South Korea's Moon calls for U.S.-North Korea summit before U.S. election

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin · July 1, 2020

Again, to what end? What is the objective and what might another summit accomplish? I am sure Moon hopes it would pave the way for intra-Korean engagement and support his peace vision. But Kim does not accept his peace strategy and he has made that clear over the past couple of weeks (and Kim Yo-Jong has as well).

7. Moon's adviser urges N.K. to explain demolition of Kaesong liaison office

Yonhap News Agency · by Kim Seung-Yeon · June 30, 2020

Yes, inquiring minds want to know. Please tell us why.

8. Only Korean unification can end the Korean War for good

The National Interest · by Andrew Yeo · June 30, 2020

Yes, we must solve the Korea question (Para 60 of the Armistice and the unnatural division of the peninsula and the people).

The only way we are going to see an end of the war, and an end to the nuclear program, and an end to the threat to South Korea and the region and the world, and an end to the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people in the North, is to achieve the only acceptable durable political arrangement: a secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for freedom and individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

Some of my thoughts on unification are here.

9. Kim Yo Jong threats delayed food aid to North Korea, reports say

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · June 30, 2020

The Kim family regime – and the Kim family regime alone – is responsible for the suffering of the Korean people in the North.

10. S. Korea reaffirms commitment to peace on 1st anniversary of Trump-Kim DMZ meeting

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · June 30, 2020

President Moon is fully committed to his peace vision despite Kim showing him his assumptions are all false. Strategy based on false assumptions leads to failed strategy.

11. N. Korea's planned leaflet drop is a no-go, for now

Daily NK · by Ha Yoon Ah · June 30, 2020

But maybe the real issue is the United Front Department could not actually produce 12 million leaflets (despite the report below that says they produce some 50 different kinds) and maybe it does not have 3000 balloons to launch to the South.

12. Number of incoming N. Korean defectors hits all-time low in Q2: unification ministry

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · July 01, 2020

The regime is taking full advantage of the draconian population and resources control measures it has implemented in response to the coronavirus. It probably has not had this good control of its borders since before the Arduous March of the famine of 1994-1996. Of course, given the recent treatment of defectors in the South, I wonder if they are not trying to escape or if they are they are trying to remain in a third country.

13. N. Korea's grain imports soar in April amid chronic food shortages: data

Yonhap News Agency · by [email protected] · July 01, 2020

Go figure. Remember that Kim Jong-Un has sufficient funds to pay for food for the entire 25 million Koreans in the North. But he chooses not to. He could certainly solve the shortage stated below.

14. Kim Jong-Un goes missing for weeks again as rumours over 'death' return

Mirror · by Kelly-Ann Mills · June 30, 2020

Kim remains on his 1 day of work with about a 3 week holiday work schedule.

15. Kim Jong-un and the persistence of North Korea

The National Interest · by Robert E. Kelly · June 30, 2020

The regime and the Korean people in the North have proven to be quite resilient. Professor Kelly outlines a number of reasons why the regime will persist through 2025.

16. Korea-Japan ties get even worse

The Chosun Ilbo · by Lee Ha-Won & Roh Suk-Jo · June 30, 2020

Unfortunately, I think this is the case. The only way to stop this is for both leaders (Moon and Abe) to exercise personal and decisive leadership.

17.  North Korea, Bolton, and a prosecutor make life hard for Moon Jae-In

The National Interest · by Mitchell Blatt · June 30, 2020

Moon is stuck between multiple rocks and hard places.

"Do not compromise on national security for purely budgetary reasons. The world is dangerous, and we must always be prepared for anything that might threaten our national interests and security."

- Sanford Bishop

"National security is the first duty of government but we are also committed to reversing the substantial erosion of civil liberties."

- Theresa May

"Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms. It's by talking nonsense that one gets to the truth! I talk nonsense, therefore I'm human"

- Fyodor Dostoevsky, Notes from Underground, White Nights, The Dream of a Ridiculous Man, and Selections from The House of the Dead