Blog Posts

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) "Don't ask, don't tell" and the military's social contract

2) Money, missiles, and Army Special Forces are squeezing the Marine Corps

"Don't ask, don't tell" and the military's social contract

Last month, the U.S. Senate voted 65 to 31 to repeal the 1993 "don't ask, don't tell" (DADT) policy that prohibited gays from openly serving in the military. The Senate vote sent the repeal bill to President Barack Obama, who eagerly signed it into law. The focus now shifts to the Defense Department, with Defense Secretary Robert Gates promising to implement the repeal "as quickly, but as responsibly, as possible." Successful implementation will require a renewed commitment by all to the military's traditional social contract.

Much of the credit for the unexpectedly large Senate majority in favor of repeal may go to a 410-page research report on DADT prepared by the Rand Corp. The report, a 2010 update of a 1993 study Rand had done for the government, was prepared at the request of both the administration and the Senate Armed Services Committee. The report reviewed recent research on group dynamics in military units, conducted surveys and focus groups of current U.S. service members, and studied the experience of other Western countries (with combat experience) that had similarly lifted restrictions on open gay service in their military forces. Senators seemed encouraged by the report's conclusions: Rand predicted that lifting the U.S. ban would have negligible consequences on U.S. military recruiting, retention, unit cohesion, and combat effectiveness. In fact, the authors predicted that the Defense Department will have an easier time adjusting to the end of DADT than it has had adjusting to the widening role of women in the military.

Of particular concern has been what the repeal might mean for unit cohesion, or the ability of small groups of soldiers to form trust and cooperate on critical tasks during stressful situations.

Click through to read more ...

And I really do have to take exception to this statement from the article:

I guess I can accept it if emphasis is placed on the word "Some" because not all of Clausewitz writings emphasized this. I would also caveat this and say "It is the misreading of some of Clausewtiz' writings" or it is the misunderstanding caused by those who only read the bumper stickers of Clausewitz and do not really read (and more importantly study) On War.

Click through to read more ...

AF: Rush for Results May Undermine Aid Goals - Christian Science Monitor

AF: Opium Prices Soar, Focus on Taliban, Drug War Stumbles - Washington Post

The Challenges of Small-Unit Patrolling in Afghanistan - New York Times

Biden and Maliki Focus on Two Nations' Future Relationship - Washington Post

In Iraq, Biden Reaffirms Deadline for Troops' Exit - New York Times

Bad Choice: Stability in Lebanon or Support for Tribunal - Washington Times

Lebanon: For Hezbollah, Claiming Victory Could Be Costly - New York Times

Clinton Pushes Economic and Political Reforms in Middle East - Washington Post

Behind Tunisia Unrest, Rage Over Wealth of Ruling Family - New York Times

Al Qaeda's Tentacles - Los Angeles Times opinion

Gates Reaffirms U.S. Support of South Korea - New York Times

U.S.-Japan Ties Should Deepen, Gates Says - Washington Post

Gates Confident of China Leader's Control over Military - Los Angeles Times

Amid Drug Violence, Acapulco Watches Tourism Recede - Los Angeles Times

Commission to Recommend Allowing Women in Combat Units - Stars and Stripes

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.

Remarks by General James F. Amos at the Surface Navy Association Symposium.

U.S. Military Chief Mike Mullen in Afghan Warning - BBC News

U.S. Military Chief: Enemy in Afghanistan is Losing - Associated Press

U.S. Keeps Funneling Money to Troubled Afghan Projects - McClatchy

Lebanon's Government Collapses as Hezbollah Resigns - Washington Post

Lacking Leverage, U.S. Grasps for a Solution in Lebanon - New York Times

Clinton Blasts Arab Governments on Reforms - Wall Street Journal

Biden Seeks to Reassure Pakistan - Los Angeles Times

Contours of Lasting American Presence in Iraq Taking Shape - Washington Post

Biden Visits Iraq for Talks on Future Relationship - Washington Post

Iran, U.S. Prepare for 'Last Chance' Nuclear Talks - Washington Post

N. Korea Seen as Drawing Bead on Both Seoul, U.S. - Washington Times

Gates in Tokyo for Talks on North Korea - New York Times

South Sudan's Referendum Vote Reaches 60%, Says SPLM - BBC News

Mayhem Spreads in Tunisia; Curfew Decreed - New York Times

Mexico Updates Four Years of Drug War Deaths to 34,612 - BBC News

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.

The AEI-ISW report, which is the subject of this event, is available here.

About this event via AEI: The US strategy in Afghanistan can succeed, according to a new report by Frederick W. Kagan and Kimberly Kagan released Friday. Mr. Kagan, resident scholar and director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, and Ms. Kagan, founder and president of the Institute for the Study of War, laid out their main arguments in "Defining Success in Afghanistan" Monday at AEI. AEI's Danielle Pletka underscored that this war is little understood by the American public and that insufficient effort has been made to illuminate the enemy insurgency, the nature of international efforts, and Afghan self-governance. Ms. Kagan gave an overview of the situation on the ground, pointing out that International Security Assistance Force troops inflicted unprecedented damage to al Qaeda in southern Helmand and Kandahar provinces throughout 2010. On the issue of a stable Afghan state, Mr. Kagan argued that longstanding Afghan history and tradition suggest that self-governance can be enduring, noting in particular the indigenous process by which Pashtuns achieve consensus among their tribal leaders. Afghans see the current hypercentralized government as illegitimate because it lacks the proper checks on executive power and is rampant with corruption, fueling the insurgency. While terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistan are of great concern, Mr. Kagan argued that dismantling the local networks used to carry out attacks within Afghanistan will render those sanctuaries less significant. Andrew Exum, who served as a civilian adviser to General Stanley A. McChrystal in Afghanistan, said that a strict counterterrorism mission would be difficult now and would not likely help achieve US objectives, but he raised concerns over the regenerative nature of the enemy. He added that he will withhold judgment on the significance of 2010's military successes until next summer. He also emphasized that the war is fought in phases and that the public needs to be prepared for additional fighting in the future. General Jack Keane compared the war in Iraq with that in Afghanistan and expressed optimism that with the right strategy in place, a new 2014 time frame, and the exceptional leadership of General David Petraeus, there is real hope for success in Afghanistan.

Much more at Columbia Journalism Review.

Ratner contends that the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party has made a thorough study of the lessons learned from the experiences of other rising powers in history. He claims that China's foreign policy is attempting to avoid the errors made by these powers. However, Ratner asserts that China's expanding commercial and political connections throughout the world, an unavoidable consequence of China's need for raw materials and export markets, will lead to clashes with states and non-state actors that will acquire grievances against China's decisions, methods, and actions. In addition, China's eagerness to transact with authoritarian regimes otherwise shunned by the West may lead to surprisingly large "blowback" directed against Beijing.

It is highly likely that China will find itself using the same tools -- covert action, unconventional warfare, foreign internal defense, proxy wars, third-party counterinsurgency, etc. -- that other past global powers have used to defend their interests in quasi-colonial situations. Ratner recommends that U.S. policymakers take this estimate of China's future security difficulties into account when formulating their own strategies, to including cooperation with China when security interests with the United States overlap.

Click here to read this interesting paper.

Nothing follows.

Biden Promises U.S. Support Beyond 2014 - Washington Post

Biden Assures Karzai of Aid From U.S. Beyond 2014 - New York Times

Biden Backtracks on Afghanistan Troop Pullout Date - Los Angeles Times

New Radio Program to Help Afghans Learn to Read - Stars and Stripes

Zardari Ally to Succeed Slain Official in Pakistan - New York Times

IEDs Killed 21,000 Iraqi Civilians 2005-2010 - USA Today

Israel: Only A Threat Of Force Will Halt Iran Nukes - Reuters

Test of Stealth Fighter Clouds Gates Visit to China - New York Times

China: Test Flight Signals Stealth Jet Reached New Stage - Wall Street Journal

Gates: N. Korean Ballistic Missiles Pose 'Direct Threat' to U.S. - Washington Post

More Votes, and More Deaths, in Southern Sudan - New York Times

Ivory Coast: With Leader Digging In, Civilians Pay the Price - New York Times

Bit by Bit, a Mexican Police Force Is Eradicated - New York Times

Haiti Still Mired in Post-quake Problems - Los Angeles Times

Mullen Observes Disconnect Between U.S. Military and Public - Washington Post

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.

Sgt. Josh LeCappelain

USJFCOM Public Affairs

(NORFOLK, Va. - Jan. 11 2011) -- The commander of U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM), Gen. Ray Odierno, issued a statement and answered questions Jan. 10 about the recommendation to disestablish the command.

"We hope that the implementation plan will be finished within the next 30-to-45 days and approved, so we can begin execution. We have been working very carefully on this plan for several months now," Odierno said. "We've had good coordination with the Virginia delegation, led by the governor's office, Sen. (Mark) Warner, Sen. (Jim) Webb, Congressman (Randy) Forbes and many others that are involved in this."

Odierno added that the exchange of ideas and an open dialogue will continue with the delegation moving forward as changes are made, including various capabilities remaining but under other organizations.

"What we've done is attempted to find the core capabilities that should be left behind in Joint Forces Command, which I believe to be joint training, concept development, doctrine development and the role we play in providing forces for all the contingency missions around the world," he added, saying that he believed approximately 50 percent of the workforce in the Hampton Roads area will remain.

Odierno listed four major goals he had during the process, including to improve efficiency and effectiveness of all the critical functions that remain; maintain a strong collaboration with NATO's Allied Command Transformation and the multi-national partners in the Hampton Roads area; sustain joint advocacy and the progress made in jointness; and provide support to the workforce during transition.

Odierno stressed that setting up a program for the DoD civilians employed by USJFCOM to continue working with other government entities was a top priority moving forward. He praised the professionalism of the workforce during this process.

"I've been very impressed with how people have continued to do their jobs. We have such great expertise and capabilities here. It hasn't been brought to my attention specifically, (but) I know that the unknown is bothering people," he said. "That's why we want to get the decision on the implementation done so we can start informing people what is going to happen to them."

When the implementation plan is approved, he will be able to brief the workforce on what to expect and a more specific deadline. He stated that once approved, the disestablishment implementation should take between 12 and 15 months.

A specific plan for what happens to the command's buildings and real estate has not been finalized.

President Barack Obama approved Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' recommendation to disestablish USJFCOM on Jan. 6.

Petraeus Says Taliban Influence on Decline - Associated Press

Biden Makes Unannounced Visit to Afghanistan - Washington Post

U.S., Afghan Officials Put Faith in Reintegration Program - Stars and Stripes

Afghan Reconstruction Watchdog Resigns Amid Pressure - Washington Post

Pakistan Faces a Divide of Age on Muslim Law - New York Times

Clinton Asks Arabs to Oppose Iran Nukes - Washington Post

Clinton Says Curbs Slow Iran Program - Wall Street Journal

Clinton in Yemen on Surprise Visit - Wall Street Journal

Gates: North Korea Will Pose Direct Threat to U.S. - Associated Press

Japan and S. Korea Hold First Military Talks in Nearly 2 Years - Washington Post

U.S., China Pledge to Improve Military Cooperation - Los Angeles Times

China Spurns Strategic Security Talks with U.S. - Washington Times

Voting Is Peaceful in South Sudan Despite Border Clashes - New York Times

At Least 3 Drug Groups Fighting for Control in Acapulco - Los Angeles Times

New Generation of Unmanned Spy Planes is Being Tested - Los Angeles Times

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.

The event has been rescheduled for 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday, January 25, at the Reserve Officers Association (1 Constitution Avenue NE). Please RSVP to: [email protected] OR (202) 643-7049. A reminder will follow sometime next week.

Event Title: The Power of People: Building an Integrated National Security Professional System for the 21st Century

The Project on National Security Reform (PNSR) is a nonpartisan organization working to modernize and improve the United States' national security system to better protect the American people against 21st century dangers.

Date: Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Time: Check-in/Registration - 8:00 (breakfast available); Event - 8:30 AM - 10:30 AM

Location: Reserve Officers Association (ROA) 1 Constitution Avenue, N.E., 4th Floor Washington, DC 20002

Description: PNSR invites you to attend "Building an Integrated National Security Professional System for the 21st Century"

RSVP: [email protected] or call (202) 643-7049

Program

Addressing National Security Professionals in the 112th Congress:

Representative Geoff Davis (R - KY)

Representative John Tierney (D - MA)

Highlights from PNSR's New Report, The Power of People:

Nancy Bearg and Myra Howze Shiplett, Study Directors

Panel on Lessons Learned and Next Steps:

Nancy Bearg - Senior Advisor and Study Director, PNSR (chair)

Pamela Aall - Provost, Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding, U.S. Institute of Peace

Catherine Dale - Specialist in International Security, Congressional Research Service

William Navas - former Executive Director, National Security Professional Development Integration Office

Vikram Singh - Senior Advisor, Office of the Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan (invited)

In 2007, the U.S. government launched an initiative to develop people with the proper skills, knowledge, and experience for working collaboratively on national security issues that cut across departments and agencies. Representatives Geoff Davis (R-KY) and Ike Skelton (D-MO) introduced legislation in September 2010. In its congressionally mandated study released in December 2010, The Power of People: Building an Integrated National Security Professional System for the 21st Century, PNSR takes a comprehensive look at the government initiative, identifying problems and shortfalls and making recommendations. The study provides a plan to build gradually to a robust Integrated National Security Professional (INSP) system.

You can find the report here. Additional PNSR major reports can be found here.

Monday, January 10, 2011, 8:00-10:00 a.m. EST

Please watch this event live online at 8:00 a.m. EST here.

The AEI-ISW report, which is the subject of this event, is now available here.

Two thousand ten was a pivotal year in determining the prospects for success in Afghanistan. In December, President Barack Obama and his administration favorably reviewed US strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan, reporting significant progress in weakening al Qaeda's presence in the region, though acknowledging the short- and long-term challenges that the United States, its allies, and its Afghan partner face in securing a stable Afghanistan. A great deal of confusion, however, remains in the public debate about what success in Afghanistan would look like and why the current approach can succeed after ten years of efforts that did not. Resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan, who directs the Critical Threats Project at AEI, and Kimberly Kagan, founder and president of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), spent 150 days in Afghanistan in 2010 and will lay out the key details of their latest report, "Defining Success in Afghanistan," copublished by AEI and ISW. General Jack Keane, former vice chief of staff for the US Army, and Center for a New American Security fellow Andrew M. Exum, who served both on active duty and as a civilian adviser to General Stanley A. McChrystal in Afghanistan, will comment. AEI's Danielle Pletka will moderate.

Afghan Insurgents Match Surge with More IEDs - USA Today

Afghans Strained by Shortages as Iran Tightens Flow of Fuel - New York Times

Pakistan's Release of Militant Stirs Questions - Associated Press

Some Shiites Express Alarm over Cleric Sadr's Return to Iraq - Los Angeles Times

U.S. Urges Continued Pressure on Iran - Los Angeles Times

Iran Holds 'Israel-linked Spies Behind Nuclear Killing' - BBC News

S. Korea Again Rejects N. Korea's Offer to Hold Talks - Associated Press

South Korea, Japan Upgrade Ties In Face Of North Korea Threat - Reuters

In Southern Sudan, a Jubilant Vote on Secession - New York Times

U.S. Plans to Reward Sudan if Vote Goes Well - Washington Times

South Sudanese Voting in Second Day of Landmark Poll - BBC News

U.S. and China Defense Chiefs Agree to Keep Talking - New York Times

Chinese Defense Chief Tepid to Gates - Washington Post

China's Stealth Jet Coming On, Gates Confirms - Washington Times

Gates: China Moving Fast on New Weapons - Associated Press

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.

Rep. Giffords Shot Critically in Arizona; Six Others Killed - New York Times

Rep. Giffords Shot in Tucson Rampage; Federal Judge Killed - Washington Post

Southern Sudanese Begin Historic Vote on Secession - New York Times

Southern Sudan on Cusp of Independence - Washington Post

Play about Afghan Conflicts Gets Encore Performance - Washington Post

Report: U.S. to Increase Help for Pakistan - Associated Press

Sadr Returns to Iraq Stage, Denounces U.S. Occupation - Washington Post

Iraqi Cleric Embraces State in Comeback Speech - New York Times

U.S. Will Counter Chinese Arms Buildup - New York Times

Gates: Intelligence Underestimated Chinese Stealth Progress - Stars and Stripes

U.S. Defense Chief: China Moving Fast on New Weapons - Associated Press

On N. Korean Heir's Birthday, a Rude Cyber-greeting - Washington Post

Mexico: 25 Bodies Found in Acapulco, 15 Decapitated - Los Angeles Times

After Decade of War, Mullen Directs Military to Take Stock - New York Times

U.S. Subpoenas Twitter Over WikiLeaks Supporters - New York Times

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.

15 Top Stories / Items of Interest:

In Wider War in Afghanistan, Survival Rate of Wounded Rises - New York

Times

Suicide Bombing in Afghan Bathhouse Kills 17 - Los Angeles Times

Sen. Webb Decries Army's 'Flawed' History of Wanat Battle - Washington

Post

101st Airborne Begins Returning After Deadly Tour - Associated Press

White House to Extend More Support to Pakistan - Washington Post

Pakistani Government Salvages Coalition, but at a Steep Price - New York

Times

Iraq Shia Cleric Moqtada Sadr Urges Iraqis to Unite - BBC News

In Southern Sudan, a Historic Vote Draws Near - Washington Post

Rioting Spreads Across Tunisia; Unrest Reported in Algeria - Los Angeles

Times

Gates Packs Familiar List of Issues for Beijing - New York Times

Gates Looking to Flex Diplomatic Muscle During Beijing Visit - Stars and

Stripes

China's Military Seems to Have a New Attitude - Washington Post

Obama Strongly Backs U.S. Trials for Terror Suspects - Associated Press

Army Big-Brain (And Blogger) Will Be New Chief of Staff - Dailyator.com

Studies Look at Possibility of Female Combat Troops - Stars and Stripes

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.

Police Mentoring in Afghanistan 2007-2009 by Dr. William Rosenau, CNA.

"On Jan. 6, the President approved the disestablishment of USJFCOM on a date determined by the Secretary of Defense, and directed that action to be reflected in the 2010 Unified Command Plan.

Earlier that day, the Secretary of Defense announced while details are still being refined, a number of USJFCOM missions will be retained in the Norfolk/Suffolk, Va. area and that 'roughly 50 percent of the capabilities under JFCOM will be kept and assigned to other organizations.'

We continue to work closely with the Pentagon, the Virginia delegation and the governor's office in our detailed planning effort. The input and involvement of the Virginia delegation and the governor's office have been very valuable to me, and we will continue to work together towards a final plan in the near future.

U.S. Joint Forces Command has an exceptionally skilled and capable work force that will continue to make contributions to the joint warfighter. We will do everything we can to assist the work force going forward."

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) Will China listen to Gates?

2) Can an army fighting a drug war stay clean?

Will China listen to Gates?

On Jan. 9, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates will leave on a three day visit to China, where he will meet with his counterparts in the Chinese government. According to Gates's spokesperson, the trip is "aimed at improving our mutual understanding and reducing the risk of miscalculation." Achieving a sustained military-to-military relationship between the United States and China has long been a goal of Gates. For the secretary, the ultimate purpose of such a relationship is to avoid a wasteful and potentially dangerous arms race between the two powers. What remains to be seen is whether Gates's hosts have the same view and whether they currently have much incentive to listen to their guest.

As a trained historian and former Cold Warrior, Gates is well aware of the costs and dangers of military competitions among great powers. Now in the eleventh hour of what will presumably be his last tour of public service, Gates is hoping that a system of regular contact between U.S. and Chinese defense officials will increase transparency, reduce suspicion, and ease the pressure that would otherwise push for greater military preparation on both sides. Gates is now deeply immersed in defense budget planning and feels the pressure smaller budgets will place on U.S. forces. Should Gates be able to avert an arms race with China, he would achieve a success that would eclipse those he may yet achieve in Iraq and Afghanistan.

For Gates, the U.S.-China military relationship benefits both sides and should logically be a high priority for both countries. Unfortunately, Chinese behavior on this issue does not support that view.

Click through to read more ...

U.S. Plans to Send 1,400 More Marines to Afghanistan - New York Times

Surge Fails to Reduce Number of Taliban Fighters - Associated Press

MQM Party to Rejoin Pakistani PM Gilani's Coalition - BBC News

Demonstrators Prevent Court Appearance of Alleged Pakistani Assassin - VOA

Pakistan: The Islam That Hard-Liners Hate - New York Times

Iraq's Sadrists Project New Confidence - New York Times

In Iraq, Apprehension Ahead of Speech by Cleric al-Sadr - Washington Post

U.S. Shifts Toward Talks on N. Korea - New York Times

'Useful' U.S., China Meetings on N. Korea - Washington Post

China's Stealth Fighter Takes U.S. by Surprise - Los Angeles Times

Sudan Vote Puts Stability on the Line - Washington Times

Southern Sudan Prepares to Wave 'Bye Bye Khartoum' - BBC News

Dempsey Tapped to be Next Army Chief of Staff - Stars and Stripes

AFRICOM Leaders to Mull Headquarters Location - Stars and Stripes

Pros and Cons of Potential AFRICOM HQ Locations - Stars and Stripes

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.

Press Release on EFV Termination

Today the Secretary of Defense announced the termination of the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV) program. I support his decision. After a thorough review of the program within the context of a broader Marine Corps Force Structure Review, I personally recommended to both the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of the Navy that the EFV be cancelled and that the Marine Corps pursue a more affordable amphibious tracked fighting vehicle.

Despite the critical amphibious and warfighting capability the EFV represents, the program is simply not affordable given likely Marine Corps procurement budgets. The procurement and operations/maintenance costs of this vehicle are onerous. After examining multiple options to preserve the EFV, I concluded that none of the options meets what we consider reasonable affordability criteria. As a result, I decided to pursue a more affordable vehicle.

Our Nation's amphibious capability remains the Corps' priority. In the complex security environment we face, the execution of amphibious operations requires the use of the sea as maneuver space. A modern amphibious tracked vehicle is the means towards this end. It enables the seamless projection of ready-to-fight Marine rifle squads from sea to land. It is thus the key to allowing ship-to-shore operations in permissive, uncertain, and hostile environments; assuring access where infrastructure is destroyed or nonexistent; and creating joint access in defended areas. It is also central to the entire Marine tactical vehicle strategy for operations ashore. Once on land, an amphibious armored fighting vehicle provides the Marine rifle squad with the protected mobility and firepower to maneuver to a position of advantage to rapidly close with, engage, and defeat the enemy.

The Marine Corps remains committed to develop and field an effective, survivable and affordable amphibious tracked vehicle. To bring this capability to the force sooner rather than later, we intend to capitalize on the Office of the Secretary of Defense's recent efforts to streamline procurement and to rapidly accelerate the acquisition and contracting processes in developing our new amphibious tracked vehicle requirement.

Shortly, we will issue a special notice to industry requesting information relative to supporting our required amphibious capabilities. We look forward to working with industry in meeting this challenge to field a modern and affordable amphibious tracked vehicle that will support our Nation's needs.