Blog Posts

Negotiating with the Taliban: The Timing and Consequences of Settlements in Foreign Power COIN Wars

by Andrew J. Enterline and Joseph Magagnoli

The emergence of a negotiated settlement as the goal of the American-led allied military mission in Afghanistan raises several questions: How likely is a negotiated settlement with Taliban insurgents? How long will it take to conclude negotiations with the Taliban? What is the likely long-term byproduct of negotiating with the Taliban? How close will the post-settlement facts on the ground be to American goals in Afghanistan? How will the recent strategy change in OEF influence negotiations and the resulting short- and long-term consequences? We investigate these questions by exploring patterns of negotiations between foreign powers and insurgents in COIN wars during the twentieth century. Our analysis serves as a probe of the aforementioned policy questions, such that we are merely querying the historical record to gain an understanding of how counterinsurgent armies fared in negotiations with insurgents. This probe provides a foundation from which to develop a theory of COIN negotiations that we intend to pursue subsequently.

Much more at The Culture & Conflict Review

Protests Grow Violent Across Middle East, N. Africa - Los Angeles Times

Popular Rage Encounters State Violence in Mideast - New York Times

Populist Empowerment Grips the Middle East - Washington Post

Summary of Anti-Government Protests in Arab World - Associated Press

Iran Rallies Set for Weekend - Voice of America

Iranian Opposition Leader Missing as Tensions Rise - New York Times

Bahrain Urged to Show Restraint After Bloody Clampdown - BBC News

Bahrain Turmoil Poses Fresh Test for White House - New York Times

Protesters Face Off for 7th Day in Yemen - New York Times

Activists Call for New Demonstration in Cairo - Washington Post

Dozens Reported Killed in Libyan Crackdown - New York Times

Gates: U.S Has 'Interest' in Keeping Troops in Iraq - Associated Press

Iraq: Gates Pleads for 'Critically Urgent' Funds for DoS Work - Washington Post

Afghan Imams Wage Political Battle Against U.S. - Washington Post

Gates: U.S. Must Consider Sustainability of Afghan Forces - AFPS

U.S.-funded Militia in Helmand Province to be Expanded - BBC News

Pakistan Worries Top Pentagon Officials - Voice of America

U.S. Military to Bolster its Forces in Pacific - Washington Times

Canada Hit by Cyberattack From China - New York Times

Continue on for more of today's SWJ news and opinion links.

In response to an earlier post, Barry Zellen, former research assistant to Gene Sharp and current Editor of The Culture & Conflict Review, sent us this email,

"I liked Renascent's comment in your blog, 'Gene Sharp is to non-violent strategies as Clausewitz was to Napolean: a theorist who studies the practitioners, generating and synthesizing the underlying insights.' I've come to see Sharp's writings as Jominian, in the best sense of the word - Jomini predominated for decades before Clausewitz gained a second wind - and like Jomini, Sharp has extracted/elucidated actionable methods from his studies that have been useful (not always with successful outcomes) to practitioners. It's exciting to see Sharp's work quickly find a new and global audience."

by Rajeev Ramchand, Joie Acosta, Rachel M. Burns, Lisa H. Jaycox, Christopher G. Pernin

BLUF. Since late 2001, U.S. military forces have been engaged in conflicts around the globe, most notably in Iraq and Afghanistan. These conflicts have exacted a substantial toll on soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen, and this toll goes beyond the well-publicized casualty figures. It extends to the stress that repetitive deployments can have on the individual servicemember and his or her family. This stress can manifest itself in different ways — increased divorce rates, spouse and child abuse, mental distress, substance abuse — but one of the most troubling manifestations is suicide, which is increasing across the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). The increase in suicides among members of the military has raised concern among policymakers, military leaders, and the population at large. While DoD and the military services have had a number of efforts under way to deal with the increase in suicides among their members, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs asked RAND to review the current evidence detailing suicide epidemiology in the military, identify "state-of-the-art" suicide-prevention programs, describe and catalog suicide-prevention activities in DoD and across each service, and recommend ways to ensure that the activities in DoD and across each service reflect state-of-the-art prevention science.

Much more at RAND

This article (NY Times login required) about

Gene Sharp, already included in

today's SWJ Roundup, probably warrants a special look  by our

community.  It provides a brief intro to his body of work on the practical

application of nonviolent revolution (basically Mao meets MLK/Gandhi) and how it

touched the wave of change in Tunisia, Egypt, et al.  Well worth the

sign-in hassle if you're not already registered with the old Grey Lady.  Be

sure to look at "From

Dictatorship to Democracy"  (more info, languages, formats

here) and his

other works at the Albert Einstein

Institution.

Nothing more follows....

Unrest Spreads, Some Violently, in Middle East - New York Times

Sense of Populist Empowerment Grips Middle East - Washington Post

Freed by Egypt's Revolt, Workers Press Demands - New York Times

U.S. Intelligence Taxed by Middle East Unrest - Los Angeles Times

Egypt Starts Process of Overhauling Constitution - Washington Post

After Mubarak Ouster, What's Next for Egypt? - Washington Times

Gates: Egypt a Case for Diplomats, Not U.S. Forces - Associated Press

Call for 'Day of Anger' in Libya - BBC News

Yemeni Govt. Loyalists Continue Attacks on Opposition - Voice of America

In Bahrain, Authorities Move Against Protesters - Washington Post

Police Fire on Protesters in Iraq - New York Times

Iran: Skirmishes at Funeral of Protester - Washington Post

U.S. Spies: Iran Split on Nuclear Program - Wall Street Journal

Israel Official Says Iran Ship Is 'Provocation' - Wall Street Journal

Pentagon Douses Rumor of Petraeus Exit, for Now - Stars and Stripes

Afghans Displaced by War Find Refuge, and Little Else - Stars and Stripes

Pakistan Court Delays Raymond Davis Decision Till March - BBC News

Davis Case: Stakes Rise, Aid Cuts Mulled - Washington Post

Justice to Probe Case of Pakistan Shooting - Washington Times

Mexico: Cartel Gunmen Shot U.S. Agents - Washington Post

U.S.-Mexico Force Probes Ambush of 2 ICE Agents - Washington Times

Agent's Death May Mean Increased Security for U.S. - Los Angeles Times

Continue on for more of today's SWJ news and opinion links.

Obama Urges Mideast Allies to 'Get Out Ahead' of Protests - Washington Post

Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf - Wall Street Journal

Violence in Yemen Protests; Demonstrations in Bahrain - Washington Post

Events in Egypt Continue; Iran and Yemen Feel Effects - Washington Post

U.S. Follows Two Paths on Unrest in Iran and Bahrain - New York Times

Military Moves Quickly to Bring Elections to Egypt - Washington Post

Egypt Opposition Feels Strains from Within - Los Angeles Times

Egypt Leaders Found 'Off' Switch for Internet - New York Times

Muslim Brotherhood Plans Egypt Political Party - Los Angeles Times

Iran's Leader Derides Protests; Lawmakers Urge Death - New York Times

Iran's Leadership Cracks Down - Wall Street Journal

Obama Careful in Criticism of Iranian Crackdown - Washington Post

Pentagon Denies Petraeus Leaving Post Early - Stars and Stripes

U.S. Will Investigate American Accused of Killing Pakistanis - New York Times

Mexico Risks Losing Large Areas to Drug Gangs - Reuters

Mexico: U.S. Agent Killed, Second Wounded - Los Angeles Times

Continue on for more of today's SWJ news and opinion links.

Egypt's Generals Try to Quell Strikes - Washington Post

Egypt Army Sets 6-Month Blueprint, Future Role Unclear - New York Times

Egyptian Military Criticizes Public Worker Strikes - Voice of America

Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt Present Two Faces - Wall Street Journal

Clashes in Iran, Protests Continue in Yemen and Bahrain - New York Times

Iran, Bahrain and Yemen, Protesters Take to Streets - Los Angeles Times

Egypt Uprising Inspires Middle East - Washington Post

Arab League Leader Says Nations Shouldn't Fear Revolts - Washington Post

Arab Leaders to Meet in Baghdad - Washington Times

Bahrain Police Disperse Rallies With Tear Gas - Voice of America

Street Battles Hit Yemeni Capital in Latest Protest - BBC News

Palestinian Cabinet Resigns as Mideast Turmoil Spreads - Washington Post

Iraqi Protesters Seek Not a New Regime, but Jobs - New York Times

Iran Uses Force Against Protests As Region Erupts - New York Times

Iran Sees Biggest Protests in a Year - Washington Post

One Year After Offensive, Signs of Progress in Marjah - Stars and Stripes

Bomb Kills 2 at Upscale Kabul Hotel Complex - Washington Post

U.S. 'to Prove' Raymond Davis Immunity in Pakistan - BBC News

Pakistani Gov't Says No Change on American Diplomat's Case - VOA

Athor Attack in South Sudan's Jonglei 'Killed 200' - BBC News

In Mexico, Anti-Drug Leader Is Killed - Wall Street Journal

Mexico Drug Violence Kills 18 in Tamaulipas State - BBC News

Obama Seeks $676 Billion for Defense Programs - Washington Times

Continue on for more of today's SWJ news and opinion links.

Update: Military Struggles to Lighten Soldiers' Load (Part 2) by Hal Bernton, Seattle Times.

Some highlights (all dollar figures in billions):

1) DoD top line declines from projected $708 in FY11 (depending on how the battle over the CR turns out) to $671 in FY12. All the reduction is in Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) ($159 to $118). Base budget goes from $548 to $553.

2) 1.6% raise in uniformed base pay (civilians are under a two-year freeze), same as Employment Cost Index. Other allowances to go up more.

3) DoD will try again to raise Tricare premiums for working-age retirees.

4) Notable increases in purchases of UAVs and Army helicopters.

5) $1.3 for Cyber Command.

6) Section 1206 (Global Train and Equip) will get $0.5. This does not include $12.8 for Afghan security forces (included in OCO), $0.5 for transition in Iraq from DoD to State.

7) Delays in F-35 mean that DoD plans to buy 41 F-18s between 2012-2016.

8) Navy will buy 11 ships in FY12, including 1 DDG, 2 SSN, 4 LCS, 2 JHSV, 1 MLP, and 1 LPD. R&D begins on new SSBN.

9) Funding for new USAF bomber and "long-range strike family of systems."

10) Within the FY12 base budget request, personnel and O&M again get the biggest increases. FY12 procurement request also grows but by $7 less than forecast last year. Research, milcon, and other accounts all shrink.

11) DoD sees base budget at $611 in FY16, 0.5% per annum real growth since FY10. OCO stable at $50 FY13-FY16, which would seem to assume a sharp drawdown in Afghanistan after FY 12.

Nothing follows.

The Sacrifice Ahead: The 2012 Defense Budget

Egyptian Military Dissolves Parliament - New York Times

Egypt Military Dissolves Parliament, Suspends Constitution - Los Angeles Times

Egypt's Generals Impose Martial Law - Washington Post

Obama Administration Studies Recent Revolutions - Washington Post

Administration Deals with Strategy on Egypt - USA Today

Adm. Mullen, U.S. Diplomat Visit Jordan, Urge Reform - Washington Post

Uprisings Show Potent New Threats to Arab States - New York Times

Mideast Unrest Spreads - Wall Street Journal

Middle East Nations Scramble to Contain Unrest - Los Angeles Times

Yemen Rocked by Third Day of Protests - BBC News

As Egypt Calms Down, So Do Israeli Nerves - New York Times

Palestinian Authority Dismisses Cabinet - Wall Street Journal

Afghanistan: Tactical Victories, Strategic Stalemate? - Politics Daily

Pakistan: U.S. Shooting Case Won't Derail Talks - Associated Press

Pakistani Police Deem American 'Guilty' in Shootings - Washington Post

Continue on for more of today's SWJ news and opinion links.

BLUF: Thousands of sick and wounded soldiers within the Army's Warrior Transition program aren't receiving psychological care they need and are being discharged into communities ill-prepared to help them. A nine-month investigation by the Tribune-Review, buttressed by documents passed to the newspaper by soldiers and the Pentagon's Office of Wounded Warrior Care & Transition Policy in Alexandria, Va., reveal an Army reeling from an epidemic of mental and behavioral health problems after nearly a decade of constant combat overseas.

Documents show Army's disservice to broken soldiers

Medical units pay price of lowered recruiting standards, reports say

Transition staff for military wounded poorly trained, stigmatized, fatigued

Military wives take charge to ensure quality care for injured husbands

Army's mental health programs swamped, understaffed

20-year servicewoman, disabled by war, faces ruin

Program for departing service members plagued by inconsistencies, indifference

Update:

Lt. Col. finds success treating 'soldier as a person

Egypt's Military Rulers Pledge Peaceful Transition - Washington Post

Military Offers Assurances to Egypt and Neighbors - New York Times

Egypt Army Struggles to Clear Tahrir Square Protesters - BBC News

Tents Give Way to Traffic in Tahrir Square - Los Angeles Times

U.S.-Egyptian Counterterrorism Work in Question - Washington Post

In U.S. Signals to Egypt, Obama Straddled a Rift - New York Times

Obama's Strategy: Apply Pressure, Avoid Intruding - Los Angeles Times

Looking for a Few Good Mideast Democrats - Associated Press

Palestinian Leaders Suddenly Call for Elections - New York Times

Anti-government Protests Broken Up in Yemen and Algeria - BBC News

Police Headquarters Hit in Afghan South - New York Times

Afghanistan: At Least 18 Killed in Taliban Raid - Associated Press

NATO: 740 Trainers Still Needed for Afghan Forces - Associated Press

Pakistan Issues Arrest Warrant for Musharraf in Bhutto's Killing - Reuters

Egyptian Revolution Sparks Protest Movement in Iraq - Washington Post

Bomber Strikes Shiite Pilgrims' Bus in Iraq - New York Times

DoD Warns of Crisis Over Funding - Washington Post

Tea Party Declares War on Military Spending - The Guardian

Continue on for more of today's SWJ news and opinion links.

By Margaret Mullins

American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, Feb. 11, 2011 -- "The Great Game" was the euphemism the British used when referring to their strategic rivalry with the Russian empire that played out in Afghanistan in the 19th century.

But it was not a game. It was a dirty, bloody, costly engagement for all sides.

"The Great Game" -- a nine-hour play presented at The Shakespeare Theatre Company -- makes it clear that the deadly "game" continues.

First touring in the United States in the fall of 2010, "The Great Game" has returned in a unique manner. The special performance arose from a conversation between Army Maj. Gen. John Nicholson, deputy chief of staff of operations for the International Security Assistance Force and U.S. Forces Afghanistan, and Mary Carstensen, a consultant with Good Stewards, a service-disabled-veteran-owned small business that focuses on supporting State Department and Defense Department contractors.

Nicholson believed "The Great Game" was something that anyone connected with Afghanistan should see, and he went to Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs Doug Wilson to make it happen.

Through the support of the Bob Woodruff Foundation, the British Council, the Tricycle Theater, the Shakespeare Theatre Company, and the Defense Department, the play has been brought to an audience of policy makers, veterans, active duty military personnel and others connected to today's war in Afghanistan.

Continue on for more.

The Who - "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss..."

The Beatles - "You say you got a real solution, well you know, we'd all love to see the plan..."

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE

Office of the Spokesman

February 12, 2011

2011/195

STATEMENT BY PHILIP J. CROWLEY

ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Postponement of the U.S. - Afghan - Pakistan Trilateral Meeting

In light of the political changes in Pakistan and after discussions with Afghan and Pakistani officials in Washington, it was agreed to postpone the Trilateral Meeting scheduled for February 23-24. We remain committed to robust engagement between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States, as we share many issues of mutual concern and benefit from being at the same table. We look forward to convening a very productive Trilateral Meeting at the earliest opportunity.

-----

U.S.-Pakistan Spat Heats Up, Meeting Off - Associated Press

U.S.-Afghan-Pakistan Meeting Postponed Amid Tensions - Reuters

Pakistan to Charge Detained American With Murder - Wall Street Journal

Pakistan Extends Jailing of American Held in 2 Deaths - New York Times

Pakistan Police: U.S. Shooter Committed 'Clear Murder' - Washingotn Post

Pakistan Accuses U.S. Staffer of 'Coldblooded Murder' - Los Angeles Times

U.S. Weighs Tougher Approach with Pakistan - Associated Press

Pakistan Rejects U.S. Diplomat's Self-Defense Claim - Voice of America

Pakistan: U.S. Diplomat Shot Pakistan Pair 'in Cold Blood' - BBC News

U.S., Pakistani Officials at Odds in Fatal Shooting - Washington Post

Mystery Over Detained American Angers Pakistan - New York Times

U.S.-Pakistan Relations Strained with Jailed Diplomat - Washington Post

One driving assumption of Field Manual 3-24: Counterinsurgency states,

General Chang Ting-chen of Mao Zedong's central committee once stated that revolutionary war was 80 percent political action and only 20 percent military. Such an assertion is arguable and certainly depends on the insurgency's stage of development; it does, however, capture the fact that political factors have primacy in COIN. At the beginning of a COIN operation, military actions may appear predominant as security forces conduct operations to secure the populace and kill or capture insurgents; however, political objectives must guide the military's approach.

This 80/20 model assumes that all actions are equivalent in effect, intensity, and outcome. This assumption has led to a conventional wisdom that suggests small wars must be solved politically and not militarily; however, recent research and empirical study is challenging this notion suggesting that most post-World War II conflicts end when the state's security forces effectively suppress the insurgency. In Things Fall Apart: The Endgame Dynamics of Internal Wars, academics from the Defense Analysis department at the Naval Postgraduate School and the Operations Research Department at the United States Military Academy conclude,

All internal wars come to an end, even if -- from the vantage point of the combatants and those who are caught in the crossfire -- they sometimes seem to go on forever. The subject of just how these conflicts end is an important one. There have been almost 300 internal wars initiated since 1945. At this writing 250 of these have come and gone. The human and material costs of these conflicts have been incalculable, much greater than the combined costs of the inter-state wars fought over the same period. Despite the cost and frequency of internal wars, however, we still do not have a close understanding of how they are resolved. What research has been conducted on this subject has focused almost exclusively on the subject of negotiated outcomes. Very little attention, by contrast, has addressed the complementary question of how organized internal conflicts end in the absence of a meaningful negotiated settlement, which is to say, how they are concluded on the battlefield. More than 80% of these wars, it turns out, were resolved by force. This stands in contrast to inter-state conflicts since 1945 which, according to one recent estimate, have had a better than 50% chance of ending in a negotiated compromise.

Read more at Third World Quarterly.

The Future of MISO, Special Warfare.

Mubarak Resigns - Voice of America

Egypt Erupts in Jubilation as Mubarak Steps Down - New York Times

Mubarak Steps Down, Jubilation in Cairo Streets - Washington Post

Euphoria in Cairo: 'The Tyrant is Gone' - Los Angeles Times

Egypt's Mubarak Resigns as Leader - BBC News

Crowds Rejoice as Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down - Washington Times

Egyptian Military Takes Control - Voice of America

'Egypt is Free,' Crowds Chant After Mubarak Quits - Associated Press

Mubarak's End Came Quickly, Stunningly - Los Angeles Times

Egypt's Military Leaders Face Power Sharing Test - New York Times

Egyptians Express Faith in Military to Bring Democracy - Washington Post

Military Coup was Behind Mubarak's Exit - Associated Press

Resignation Creates Vacuum for U.S. - Washington Post

U.S. Faces Critical Test of Influence on Egypt - Los Angeles Times

Obama Presses Egypt's Military on Democracy - New York Times

Obama: Egypt Will Never Be The Same - Voice of America

World Welcomes Mubarak Resignation - Voice of America

World Leaders Cheer but Remain Wary - New York Times

Quiet Worries as Israel Watches an Ally Depart - New York Times

Israelis Appear Relieved at Mubarak's Decision - Washington Post

Turns out CIA was Right About Mubarak Exit - Associated Press

Uncharted Ground After Stunning End of Egypt's Regime - New York Times

With Peace Egyptians Overthrow a Dictator - Washington Post

Hosni Mubarak Brought Stability to Egypt, At a Price - Voice of America

What It Was Like in Tahrir Square When Mubarak Resigned - VOA

Mubarak will be Remembered for How it Ended - Washington Post

Fall of Mubarak Shakes Middle East - Wall Street Journal

Egypt's Historic Moment Spurs New Hope in Arab World - Washington Post

Celebrations Spread Across Middle East - Los Angeles Times

Arab Leaders, Facing Calls for Reform, Consider Next Move - New York Times

Jordan Angered by Articles on the Discontent of Tribes - New York Times

Continue on for more of today's SWJ news and opinion links.

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) Will diplomacy and soft power be enough to defend space?

2) How many nukes does Pakistan need?

Will diplomacy and soft power be enough to defend space?

The U.S. Department of Defense released its first-ever National Security Space Strategy (NSSS), on Feb. 4. The document "seeks to maintain and enhance the national security benefits" the United States derives from its activities and capabilities in space. This week, Gregory Schulte, deputy assistant secretary of defense for space policy, explained the new policy in an essay for Foreign Policy. Schulte described the benefits the United States receives from a wide variety of surveillance, communications, and navigation satellites. He also noted the increasing competition among a growing number of players who are seeking their own advantageous positions in orbit. Schulte explained some clever diplomatic and soft-power strategies that U.S. officials hope will protect the country's space interests, along with some hedges in case the soft-power strategies fail. However, growing those hedges could get very expensive for the Pentagon.

Of greatest worry to the Pentagon is the vulnerability of its satellites to attack. In 2007, China shot down one of its old weather satellites with a direct-ascent missile, demonstrating its ability to threaten the space systems on which U.S. military forces depend. In addition to missile attack, many commercial and Defense Department satellites are also vulnerable to directed energy (laser) attack and to electronic jamming. U.S. adversaries may view attacks on U.S. satellites as a high-payoff/low-risk strategy. By attacking U.S. satellites, an adversary could hobble U.S. military forces without the usual indications of warfare, at least in the public's perception. For example, without any images of explosions, burning buildings, or wounded civilians, U.S. policymakers might find it difficult to generate political and diplomatic support for a military response.

Click below to read more ...