By "jadedmajor", H/T Bob Bateman
Blog Posts
SWJ Blog is a multi-author blog publishing news and commentary on the various goings on across the broad community of practice. We gladly accept guest posts from serious voices in the community.
by SWJ Editors | Fri, 02/11/2011 - 1:04am | 0 comments
Top Stories / Items of Interest
Mubarak Refuses to Step Down, Stoking Fury and Resolve - New York Times
Mubarak Spurns Opposition Demands to Leave Power - Washington Post
Mubarak Deepens Crisis - Wall Street Journal
Mubarak Further Angers Protesters - Los Angeles Times
Egypt's Mubarak Refuses to Quit - BBC News
Egypt Braces for Massive Protest - Aljazeera
Military Caught Between Mubarak and Protesters - New York Times
What the Military Means to Egyptians - Globe and Mail
Obama Calls Mubarak's Latest Move Insufficient - Reuters
Obama Tested on Whether to Break With Mubarak - New York Times
Mubarak Defiance Puts U.S. on Defensive - Washington Post
U.S. Intelligence Chief Defends Reports on Egypt - New York Times
Comments by Panetta Stoke Unmet Expectations - Washington Post
U.S. Checks Egypt's Prisons for Terrorist Escapes - Washington Times
Taliban Directed Attacks From Prison - New York Times
Afghan Proposal Would Clamp Down on Women's Shelters - New York Times
Afghanistan Bomber Kills District Governor, 6 Others - Los Angeles Times
Pakistan Suicide Bomber Kills 32 at Military School - Los Angeles Times
Iraq Makes Pitch for Iraqis to Come Home - New York Times
Car Bomb Kills 8 Pilgrims on Way to Iraqi Shrine - Associated Press
Iran: Opposition Leader Placed Under House Arrest - Washington Post
South Sudan Ceasefire Broken: Athor Attacks Jonglei - BBC News
North Korea Rules Out Further Military Talks With South - Voice of America
Philippines Muslim Rebels in Talks in Malaysia - BBC News
India and Pakistan Agree to Resume Peace Talks - BBC News
Intel Chief Says Terror Still Top Threat to U.S. - Associated Press
Pentagon Budget Request for Weapons Will Be $7 Billion Less - Bloomberg
General Gives Stinging Rebuke to Contractors - The Hill
Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.
by SWJ Editors | Thu, 02/10/2011 - 11:06pm | 1 comment
Middle East Turmoil: Is It 1989 All Over Again?
by Jason J. Morrissette
It is only natural for the casual observer of global politics and the expert alike to draw historical analogies in order to better grasp current events—a cognitive shortcut to simplify an exceedingly complex reality. As such, it should come as no surprise that many pundits have already equated recent political turmoil in the Arab world with the 1989 revolutions in Eastern and Central Europe that ultimately led to the dissolution of the Eastern Bloc and the collapse of the Soviet empire. The similarities, after all, are there: the rapid spread of mass protests from country to country, the hope for democratic reform, and the uncertainty concerning the future. While these recent events are likely to shape the course of regional politics in the Middle East and North Africa for years to come, the impact on global politics—that is, the overall balance of power that defines international relations—will almost certainly pale in comparison to the 1989 revolutions that heralded the Soviet Union's demise.
Jason J. Morrissette is an Assistant Professor of Political Science and Director of International Affairs at Marshall University in Huntington, West Virginia. He specializes in international relations, post-Soviet politics, and environmental conflict. His most recent publication, "Rationality and Risk-Taking in Russia's First Chechen War," appeared in the European Political Science Review (July 2010).
by SWJ Editors | Thu, 02/10/2011 - 7:44pm | 21 comments
Defining War by Jeffrey Hasler, Special Warfare. BLUF:"Regular review and restatement of approved definitions and their descriptions are necessary as sources of doctrine (e.g., policy, concepts, lessons learned, training, military education, operations planning and strategy) naturally evolve and doctrine is routinely updated. However, further complicating the goal of establishing and reinforcing up-to-date, authoritative and clearly articulated doctrine are other, currently influential, nondoctrinal terms. Incorrect usage of doctrinal terms sows confusion and hinders mission accomplishment; incorrect usage of unapproved terms does so exponentially."
Defining War, Special Warfare.
by SWJ Editors | Thu, 02/10/2011 - 5:39pm | 3 comments
In an exclusive interview with NATO TV, ISAF Commander General David Petraeus says he expects violence to increase again this year as he continues his counterinsurgency campaign across Afghanistan but he is seeing signs of discord appear within the Taliban.
by SWJ Editors | Thu, 02/10/2011 - 4:06am | 0 comments
Top Stories / Items of Interest
Spreading Unrest Raises Pressure on Mubarak - Washington Post
Suleiman Says Government Will Not Tolerate Prolonged Cairo Protests - VOA
Opposition: Mubarak Must Act Now or Risk 'Complete Chaos' - Washington Post
Obama's Advisors Split on When, How Mubarak Should Go - Los Angeles Times
Egypt Foreign Minister Criticises U.S. Calls for Change - BBC News
Lawmakers Criticize Obama's Response to Egypt Crisis - Washington Times
NATO Offers Israel, Palestinians Peacekeeping Troops - Washington Post
ICOS: U.S. Troop Cut Could Set Back Afghan Gains - Reuters
NATO Commander Expects More Taliban Attacks in Spring - Voice of America
NATO, Afghans Seek to Pre-empt Spring Offensive - Associated Press
Afghan Rights Groups Shift Focus to Taliban - New York Times
Pakistan May Be Building 4th Plutonium Reactor - Washington Post
'Schoolboy Bomber' Kills 20 in Pakistan - BBC News
U.S., Pakistani Officials at Odds in Fatal Shooting - Washington Post
Pakistan's PM Reorganizes Cabinet - Voice of America
Fatal Bombs in Iraq Seemed Aimed at Militia - New York Times
Tehran Vows to Crush Rally Supporting Tunis, Cairo - Washington Times
Somali Piracy 'Threatens Global Oil Supplies' - BBC News
Official Is Killed In Southern Sudan - New York Times
Mexican Drug Cartels Draws Guatemalan Army to Jungles - Washington Post
Drug War Spreads to Mexico's Second City, Guadalajara - Reuters
North Korea Reacts Angrily to Breakdown of Talks - New York Times
Terrorist Threat Most 'Heightened State' Since 9/11 - Washington Post
Mullen: 'Hard' Budget Times Ahead for Military - The Hill
Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.
by SWJ Editors | Thu, 02/10/2011 - 3:19am | 0 comments
The Association of the United States Army (AUSA) will be holding their ILW Winter Symposium and Exposition 23-25 February in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. For those bloggers who cannot attend the conference, a roundtable has been arranged as a call in question and answer session with Lieutenant General Michael Vane, Director, Army Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC), on Thursday, 24 February, from 0900 to 0945 (ET).
LTG Vane will discuss making small units decisive and connecting Soldiers to digital applications. The roundtable will take place in room 216 (TRADOC Meeting Room) and the dial in number is 757-788-6799.
by SWJ Editors | Thu, 02/10/2011 - 2:02am | 29 comments
Mark Safranski, aka Zenpundit, asks "is counterinsurgency dead?"."By that, I mean contemporary, mid-2000's "pop-centric" COIN theory as expressed in FM 3-24 - is it de facto dead as USG policy or is COIN theory formally evolved to officially embrace strong elements of CT, targeted assassinations, FID, "open-source counterinsurgency" and even bare-knuckled conventional warfare tactics?"
What say you?
by SWJ Editors | Wed, 02/09/2011 - 4:18pm | 37 comments
The Associated Press, via The Houston Chronicle, reports that Mexico is angry at a U.S. official's 'insurgency' remark. It seems Mexico's Interior Department took great exception to U.S. Undersecretary of the Army Joseph Westphal's comment "as all of you know, there is a form of insurgency in Mexico with the drug cartels that's right on our border" on Monday at the Hinckley Institute of Politics. Westphal has since retracted his categorization of Mexico's drug-related violence saying he "mistakenly characterized the challenge posed by drug cartels to Mexico as "a form of insurgency."" Mark Krikorian of National Review Online's The Corner says "the number-two civilian official in the Army committed a Kinsleyan gaffe Monday by telling the truth."
What say you?
by Robert Haddick | Wed, 02/09/2011 - 12:48pm | 1 comment
Yesterday, Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Michael Mullen released a new version of the National Military Strategy. The 21-page document attempts to describe "the ways and means by which our military will advance our enduring national interests." Like its cousins, the 2010 National Security Strategy and the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, the National Military Strategy assembles a long list of aspirations and describes in the most general terms some approaches for achieving those aspirations. As with the other two documents, the National Military Strategy avoids difficult discussions about priorities, constraints, resource limits, trade-offs, or consequences. Readers of the document, whether they be allies or adversaries, are likely to be hard-pressed to discern what about America's military strategy is actually changing as result of this document and the preparation that went into it.
Click below to read more ...
by SWJ Editors | Wed, 02/09/2011 - 8:31am | 0 comments
... as reported by WVEC and the Virginian-Pilot."Army Gen. Ray Odierno, JFCOM's commander, will lead an all-hands meeting at 1 p.m. today to discuss the command's future, according to an e-mail sent to JFCOM staff Tuesday."
SWJ will post updates as info becomes available.
Not much to update so far. The AP reports, via the Washington Post, that JFCOM cuts will include 2,300 in Virginia and more at several other locations. The hardest hit will be the defense contractor force, down to 500 from the current estimated 2,500 nationwide.
Update 2: Odierno Details Joint Forces Command Disestablishment Plans by Cheryl Pellerin of the American Forces Press Service.
... In the months ahead, streamlined relevant joint functions will be transferred to "appropriate Defense Department entities, mostly the Joint Staff," Odierno said. "We'll ensure that we sustain the momentum and gains in jointness while maintaining critical interaction with NATO, specifically Allied Command Transformation, and other multinational partners."
Allied Command Transformation, based in Norfolk, Va., is a NATO military command that provides the conceptual framework for conducting combined joint operations.
Odierno said he's required over the next 30 days to publish a detailed implementation plan and submit it to Gates.
"During this time," the general said, "I will continue to refine the details of this plan, and will continue to refine it as we begin execution of the plan."
A two-star general officer will lead the new organization from Norfolk-Suffolk as deputy director for operational plans and joint force development on the Joint Staff. Joint Forces Command will be disestablished as a four-star combatant command by the end of August, and all personnel moves will be complete by March 2012.
"Today we have 33 liaison officers as part of Joint Forces Command," Odierno said. "They will remain connected to the Joint Warfighting Center. We have requests for 17 other nations to join us here, and that will continue to be programmed."
The general said the command's outlying centers and agencies will be realigned and reduced for efficiency and assigned to other combatant commands. No physical moves are projected with the transfers.
These include the Joint Warfare Analysis Center in Dahlgren, Va.; the Personnel Recovery Agency in Fort Belvoir, Va.; the Joint Communications and Support Element at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla.; and the NATO School in Germany.
Joint Forces Command service components include Fleet Forces Command, Air Combat Command, Marine Forces Command and Army Forces Command, Odierno said, and each will revert to their respective service's control Aug. 1.
The reorganized command will retain 51 percent of its Virginia work force, which will be reduced from about 4,700 people to 2,425. In the Norfolk-Suffolk area, the work force will drop to 1,900 from 3,800 people, and from 21 buildings to four...
by SWJ Editors | Wed, 02/09/2011 - 8:12am | 0 comments
Top Stories / Items of Interest
As Egypt Protest Swells, U.S. Sends Specific Demands - New York Times
U.S. Call to Hosni Mubarak's Government - BBC News
Free Elections Still Distant Prospect for Egypt - Washington Post
Allies Press U.S. to Go Slow on Egypt - New York Times
Cairo Demonstrators Dig In - Wall Street Journal
Ranks of Protesters Swell in Cairo - Washington Post
Protests Grow Again; Govt Offers New Compromises - Los Angeles Times
Gates Calls Egypt Protests Signal to Other Mid-East Leaders - VOA
Jordan Tribesmen Warn King to Reform or Risk Revolt - Voice of America
Iranian Dissident Says Planned March Will Test Regime - New York Times
Palestinians to Hold Local Elections July 9 - Associated Press
Karzai Again Takes a Swipe at Western Backers - Los Angeles Times
Afghan President: Reconstruction Teams Have to Go - Voice of America
Afghan Government Expands Reach But Gains Fragile - Associated Press
Karzai Calls on the U.S. To Free a Taliban Official - New York Times
Afghan Govt Accuses 16 Security Firms of Violations - Washington Post
Military Working Dogs: Afghanistan's Most Loyal Troops - Los Angeles Times
Mystery Over Detained American Angers Pakistan - New York Times
In Kirkuk, a Test of U.S. Peacekeepers' Lasting Impact - Washington Post
Russia: Security Shake-up Follows Moscow Bombing - Washington Times
Russia's Top Terrorist Promises More Bombs for Moscow - Voice of America
U.S. Commander: Special Operations Forces Stressed - Associated Press
At CIA, Mistakes by Officers Often Overlooked - Washington Post
Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.
by SWJ Editors | Wed, 02/09/2011 - 6:05am | 0 comments
Here are the prepared remarks by General James F. Amos, Commandant of the Marine Corps, for the George P. Shultz Lecture at the Marine Memorial Club in San Francisco, CA, on 8 February 2011. Several excerpts follow:
Six months ago, Secretary Gates stood right here at this podium and asked some very pointed questions about the capabilities and future of the Marine Corps. He challenged the Corps to, "define the unique mission of the Marines going forward." When the boss challenges you to do something, you probably ought to take it seriously... and we did.
I refer to our Marine Corps of today as a 'middleweight force.' I liken it to boxing, where a middleweight boxer can box up into the heavy weight division or box down to the lightweight division simply by changing his weight and training regime. The same is true for the Marine Corps. We fill the void in our Nation's defense for an agile force that is comfortable operating at the high and low ends of the threat spectrum, or the more likely ambiguous areas in between.
In early September, the Marine Corps began an internally-driven, comprehensive Force Structure Review. Armed with the "mission of the Marine Corps" from my Planning Guidance, and using the future security environment as the backdrop in which we will most likely operate, a team of our brightest Marines and Civilian Marines, guided by myself and the top leadership of our Corps, crafted a post-Afghanistan Marine Corps. Yesterday, I briefed Secretary Gates and our senior leadership on the results of this study, and Congress is being briefed, as well.
As a result of our review, the Marine Corps will:
1. Right-size the Marine Corps for a post Afghanistan world
2. Build capabilities that support a "middleweight force" whose role is to respond to today's crisis... TODAY
3. Fully institutionalize the lessons learned during nine years of combat and counter insurgency missions
4. Assure access, preserve freedom of maneuver and deny sanctuary against irregular, hybrid and conventional threats
5. Maintain a force with a minimum capability to simultaneously deploy two Brigade's worth of assault forces from 33 amphibious ships
6. Eliminate unnecessary HQ's and flatten the Marine Corps command structure where it makes sense to do so
7. Build regionally-aligned Marine Expeditionary Brigade Command Elements that provide scalable, Joint Task Force-capable, crisis response command and control for our Regional Combatant Commanders
8. Maintain Reserve force structure at current levels while internally reorganizing for increased operational relevance with the Total Force
9. Increase Marine Cyber-forces by 67% and Marine Special Operations Command by 44%
10. Turn high demand/low density forces into high demand/'right density' forces
11. Transition 7% of non-operational forces to operational billets
12. Reorganize and Consolidate Irregular Warfare Organizations
13. Restructure our logistics groups to increase the depth, availability and responsiveness of our combat service support
Nothing follows.
by SWJ Editors | Tue, 02/08/2011 - 5:58pm | 0 comments
Do Quote Me by P.W. Singer, Armed Forces Journal. BLUF: "Washington's think tankers can play a double game through the media."
by SWJ Editors | Tue, 02/08/2011 - 5:39pm | 0 comments
Joint Chiefs Chairman Says Military Must Focus Beyond Iraq and Afghanistan by Thom Shanker of the New York Times. BLUF: "... the military now must revise how it goes about defending America and its interests. Admiral Mullen will make that official on Tuesday with the release of a new national military strategy. The 21-page document is the first top-to-bottom rewrite of national military strategy in seven years - reflecting an official assessment that the Pentagon must officially adjust its focus beyond Afghanistan and Iraq to prepare for a broad range of future risks."
Chairman's Corner: National Military Strategy
By Admiral Mike Mullen
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
WASHINGTON, February 08, 2011 - Today, I released the 2011 National Military Strategy which provides a vision for how our Joint Force will provide the military capability to protect the American People, defend our Nation and allies, and contribute to our broader peace, security and prosperity.
While we continue to refine how we counter violent extremism and deter aggression, this strategy also rightfully emphasizes that our military power is most effective when employed in concert with other elements of power. This whole-of-nation approach to foreign policy, with civilian leadership appropriately at the helm, will be essential as we address the complex security challenges before us.
This strategy also acknowledges that while tough near-term choices must be made during this era of broader economic constraints, we will continue to invest in our people and our families. Working with our government and interagency partners, and our friends and allies, they, most of all, will bring this strategy to life as we meet our 21st century responsibilities in a dynamic, yet uncertain, future.
- Admiral Mike Mullen
by SWJ Editors | Tue, 02/08/2011 - 3:38pm | 0 comments
FT Interview Transcript: General David Petraeus: General David Petraeus, the commander of NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, spoke to Matthew Green, the Financial Times Afghanistan and Pakistan correspondent, at his headquarters in Kabul on February 6.
by SWJ Editors | Tue, 02/08/2011 - 3:32pm | 0 comments
Will Pakistan Follow Egypt's Example? By Jayshree Bajoria, Council on Foreign Relations. BLUF: "Pakistan may be even more vulnerable than Egypt to popular discontent, with higher inflation, unemployment, and external debt, much of it exacerbated by the devastating flood of 2010 that crippled an already teetering economy."
by SWJ Editors | Tue, 02/08/2011 - 7:00am | 0 comments
Top Stories / Items of Interest
In Egypt, U.S. Weighs Push for Change With Stability - New York Times
U.S. Eases Off Call for Swift Egypt Reform - Los Angeles Times
Cairo Demonstrations Hit Standstill - Washington Post
Egypt Unrest: Public-sector Pay Rise But Protests Go On - BBC News
Obama Says Egypt 'Making Progress' in Negotiation - Bloomberg
Muslim Brotherhood Eyes Comeback in Egypt - Washington Post
Foreign Islamists Get Little Support in Egypt - Wall Street Journal
How Long Can Military Navigate Middle Ground? - Los Angeles Times
Egyptian Upheaval Threatens Efforts to Revive Mideast Peace Talks - VOA
Tribesmen in Jordan Issue Call for Political Reform - New York Times
Results: South Sudan Backs Independence - BBC News
Sudan Leader to Accept Secession of South - New York Times
Sudan Under Pressure After South Secedes - Washington Times
Afghan, NATO Forces Brace for Spring Offensive - Associated Press
Is China a Measuring Stick or a Warning Sign? - Washington Post
North, South Korea Hold First Talks in Four Months - Los Angeles Times
Chechen Warlord Umarov Claims Moscow Airport Bomb - BBC News
U.K. Ministers 'Wanted Lockerbie Bomber Released' - BBC News
Navy Drone Will Call Aircraft Carriers Home - Wall Street Journal
Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.
by SWJ Editors | Mon, 02/07/2011 - 7:53am | 0 comments
Top Stories / Items of Interest
After First Talks, Egypt Opposition Vows New Protest - New York Times
Egypt: Key Opponents Relax Stance - Washington Post
Egypt's New Cabinet Meets as Protests Continue - Los Angeles Times
Vice President Offers Concessions in Egyptian Talks - Washington Times
Egypt Protesters Unmoved by Talks - BBC News
White House Races to Keep Pace with Events - Washington Post
Clinton: Warning Against Hasty Exit for Mubarak - New York Times
South Sudan Independence Referendum Result Expected - BBC News
E. Afghanistan: At War With the Taliban's Shadowy Rule - New York Times
U.S. Plan to Arm Afghan Villagers Carries Risks - Washington Post
Karzai Seeks End to NATO Reconstruction Teams - New York Times
Report Casts Doubt on Taliban's Ties With Al Qaeda - New York Times
Karzai Sets March 21 as Start of Security Transfer to Afghan Forces - VOA
Karzai Critical of Aid Bypassing Afghan Government - Washington Post
Iran's Opposition Hopes to Draw from Protests - Washington Post
In Tehran, Trial Begins of Americans Held as Spies - New York Times
Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.
by SWJ Editors | Sun, 02/06/2011 - 9:53am | 1 comment
Via e-mail from Dr. Jack Kem, Deputy to the Commander, NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan (NTM-A) and Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan (CSTC-A):
It is remarkable to us that in the past year the army grew by approx 50K soldiers and the police grew by nearly 20K. At the same time the ANSF is growing, the Afghan people value and respect their security forces. A November 2010 Asia Foundation poll found that 92 percent of Afghans agreed or strongly agreed that the army is honest and fair, while 84 percent thought the same about the police. The Afghan people's appreciation and respect for their security forces remains steady as we begin to achieve major milestones in our mission for a stable, independent Afghan Security Force.
To be sure, there are significant challenges facing the ANSF. These include: illiteracy, attrition, and leader development. NTM-A is committed to assisting the ANSF overcome these challenges and instill a culture of stewardship. The attached papers offer an assessment of the change that has taken place in MOI and MOD over the past year.
Continue on for year in review highlights from NTM-A/CSTC-A...
by SWJ Editors | Sun, 02/06/2011 - 8:46am | 0 comments
Top Stories / Items of Interest
Stability of Egypt Hinges on a Divided Military - New York Times
Egypt's Military Treads Carefully in Cairo - Los Angeles Times
Opposition Parties Fracture as Talks Begin - Washington Post
Banned Muslim Brotherhood to Enter Egypt Talks - New York Times
Protests Cause Shift in U.S. Policy - Los Angeles Times
As Mubarak Digs In, U.S. Policy in Egypt Is Complicated - New York Times
Egypt Gas Pipeline Attacked, Israel, Jordan Flow Hit - Reuters
What Influence Does Washington Have in the Arab World? - Voice of America
Clinton: Middle East Facing 'Perfect Storm' - BBC News
Sudan: Southern Troops Mutiny - Washington Post
Afghan Rights Fall Short for Christian Converts - New York Times
Pakistanis Flee Army Offensive Near Afghan Border - BBC News
Iraq's Maliki Says He Won't Seek 3rd Term - Washington Post
Assange's Battles Threaten to Overshadow WikiLeaks' Work - Washington Post
Seeking Better Sleep for U.S. Troops - Stars and Stripes
The Army's Disservice to Broken Soldiers - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.
by SWJ Editors | Sat, 02/05/2011 - 10:55am | 0 comments
Picking Up The Pieces Following Kandahar Offensive by Abubakar Siddique and Mohammad Sadiq Rishtinai, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. BLUF: Sustaining military gains in the long-term depends on the performance of ISAF's Afghan partners.
by SWJ Editors | Sat, 02/05/2011 - 10:11am | 0 comments
Top Stories / Items of Interest
Mubarak Meets Economic Team as Protests Enter Day 12 - Voice of America
Egypt Officials Seek to Ease Mubarak Out - New York Times
Steps Toward a Solution in Egyptian Crisis - Washington Post
Egypt's Army Moves to Restore Order - Los Angeles Times
U.S. Presses Egyptian Army to Bless Talks - Washington Post
Egypt's Military Remains Neutral, Mullen Says - AFPS
Where Egypt Military's Loyalties Lie Remains Unclear - Washington Post
Gas Pipeline Explodes in North Sinai - Los Angeles Times
Obama Said to Fault Spy Agencies' Mideast Forecasting - New York Times
Crisis in Egypt Tests U.S. Ties With Israel - New York Times
In Taliban's Heartland, U.S. and Afghan Forces Dig In - New York Times
Pakistan Likely to Release U.S. Diplomat - Associated Press
Pentagon Fears Iraq Becoming 'Forgotten War' - Christian Science Monitor
China Developing Counterspace Weapons - Defense News
Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.
by Mike Few | Sat, 02/05/2011 - 8:07am | 0 comments
Revolt in North Africa, was it predicted?
With the recent turmoil in North Africa and unrest in the Middle East, we decided to dust off some previously published articles by friends of Small Wars Journal. The intent is two-fold: 1. To determine if some of these events were predictable given open source research and analysis and 2. To better understand the causal factors leading towards small wars. In the Middle East, some of these factors are self-evident: oppressive regimes, lack of personal and religious freedoms, lack of jobs, and lack of hope in the future; however, scarcity of resources remains an understudied area.
In 2004 two scholars, Jason Morrissette and Douglas Borer, published an article in the US Army War College journal, Parameters. The article entitled, Where Oil and Water Do Mix: Environmental Scarcity and Future Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, address causes of future conflict in the Middle East, however, it departs from mainstream scholarship by arguing that water (not oil), and water's connection to food supplies, pressures created by increases in population, and the global economy will become a leading cause of war in the future. Morrissette and Borer argue: 1) countries that have sufficient water to grow their own food will be less vulnerable to conflict; 2) countries that do not have sufficient water to grow their own food might avoid resource based conflict if they have sufficient economic capacity to purchase food on the world market; 3) as globalization increases the demand for food, and "free trade" organizations such as the WTO (World Trade Organization) pressure food exporting countries to lower farm subsidies, all countries will see a rise in food prices; 4) Some countries (including Tunisia and Egypt), are highly vulnerable to these structural trends.
Considering that the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization announced this week that global food prices have hit a historic high, this essay is worth a read.