News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. USFK struggles to conduct Apache live-fire training

2. More verification needed over N.K. ICBM's reentry capability: defense ministry

3. After Biden’s election victory, what's North Korea’s next move?

4. NK paper urges tight antivirus efforts without expecting outside help

5. Exposing the Financial Footprints of North Korea’s Hackers

6. Unification minister proposes “three small steps” for thawing inter-Korean relations

7. UN rapporteur sends letters to two Koreas calling for info provision on fisheries official killing

8. South Korea to spend over $72.5 billion to boost defense industry over next 5 years

9.   Defense Ministry to ratchet up spending on Korea's arms industry

10. Perry says diplomatic solution still possible on N. Korea's denuclearization

11. TPP may have been U.S.' chance to contain China, denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmakers

12. (Yonhap Interview) Biden-Kim summit possible, but only when both see 'substantive' outcome: Stephens

13. Biegun notes need for 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches toward N. Korea: lawmakers

14. U.N. committee adopts resolution on N. Korea human rights violation

15. China's policy on N.K. denuclearization consistent regardless of U.S. leadership change: Amb. Xing

16. Biden Has Inherited a Nuclear North Korea

17. Life After Donald Trump on the Korean Peninsula

18. Xi Jinping Doubles Down on Korean War Propaganda

 

1. USFK struggles to conduct Apache live-fire training

The Korea Times · November 16, 2020

This is a serious problem.  If our combat aviation brigade cannot conduct sufficient training to sustain readiness and maintain crew qualifications it would be the height of irresponsibility to allow an untrained force to remain in harm's way.  This is not a threat to withdraw; it is simply a fact that if we cannot train we cannot leave the force in place.

 

2. More verification needed over N.K. ICBM's reentry capability: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · November 19, 2020

I would err on the side they have developed the capability.  As has been pointed out to me by experts the idea that when the north tested a re-entry vehicle as it was observed to have "burned up" on re-entry all objectives reentering the earth's atmosphere are observed as being on fire and heating up to extremely high temperatures.  What we do not know is if the vehicle they tested had adequate heat shielding to survive re-entry. 

 

3. After Biden’s election victory, what's North Korea’s next move?

thebulletin.org · by Duyeon Kim · November 18, 2020

The $64,000 question.  Duyeon Kim covers the "North Korea’s next provocation" and "The future of diplomatic negotiations" while also examining ROK/US alliance issues.

 

4. NK paper urges tight antivirus efforts without expecting outside help

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · November 19, 2020

Yes, the regime has to defend against the coronavirus but it is using that to justify the re-imposition of extreme population and resources control measures to further oppress and control the Korean people in the north. External help would undermine those efforts

 

5. Exposing the Financial Footprints of North Korea’s Hackers

cnas.org· by Jason Bartlett

A very useful report.  We must deal with north Korea's "all purpose sword."

Conclusion: "North Korea will continue to exploit the vulnerabilities in U.S. and U.N. legal and financial institutions through any means possible. The United States should lead fellow responsible nations in creating safeguards against illicit cyber activity to match the sophistication of current cyber threats. North Korea’s expanding cyber capabilities are a direct threat to international security and the global financial system. Beyond strengthening cybersecurity protocols and information sharing between governments and financial institutions, the United States government can coordinate with its allies to conduct in-depth research on the whereabouts of overseas North Korean cyber agents to track, identify, and prevent further dispatch units."

 

6. Unification minister proposes “three small steps” for thawing inter-Korean relations

Hani · by Lee Je-hun· November 05, 2020

And how do we think Kim Jong-un will view these "three small steps?"  What is in it for him?  Why would these three small steps lead to a thaw?  We would be better served assessing the nature and strategy of the Kim family regime and developing policy and strategy based on realistic assumptions about (and knowledge of ) the regime.

Excerpt: The “three small steps” that Lee officially proposed to the North are restoring inter-Korean channels of communication, opening up Panmunjom to visits by South and North Koreans, and hosting divided family reunions at Panmunjom.

 

7.UN rapporteur sends letters to two Koreas calling for info provision on fisheries official killing

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · November 19, 2020

The UN carrying the human rights water for the Korean peninsula? 

 

8. South Korea to spend over $72.5 billion to boost defense industry over next 5 years

The Korea Times · November 18, 2020

 

9. Defense Ministry to ratchet up spending on Korea's arms industry

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Astronomical investments?  Paradoxically, progressive governments in Seoul seem to spend more on defense than conservative governments.

Excerpts: 

“Seoul's astronomical investments in its military follow four years of U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly questioning the necessity of the U.S. military deployment on the Korean Peninsula, and seeking to hike Seoul's defense contributions for the upkeep of U.S. forces by an unprecedented margin.

Though U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has sought to counter Trump's so-called "America First" vision by shoring up ties with allies, Trump's term in office has led to concern in Seoul about the uncertainty of the U.S. military's commitment to its security.

Defense Ministry to ratchet up spending on Korea's arms industry.”

 

10. Perry says diplomatic solution still possible on N. Korea's denuclearization

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · November 18, 2020

Only IF kim Jong-un wants one.

 

11. TPP may have been U.S.' chance to contain China, denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmakers

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 19, 2020

I think withdrawing from TPP was a major strategic mistake for the US but I fail to see how it would have significantly  contributed to the denuclearization of north Korea.

 

12. (Yonhap Interview) Biden-Kim summit possible, but only when both see 'substantive' outcome: Stephens

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 18, 2020

No US president should ever meet with the Kim family regime until working level negotiations produce an agreement that can be brought to the leaders for approval. That said, I do not think Kim Jong-un will conduct a meeting with a US leader unless it comes with a guarantee of sanctions relief.

 

13. Biegun notes need for 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches toward N. Korea: lawmakers

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 18, 2020

What I think he is describing is statesmanship.  There is no silver bullet for dealing with north Korea.  It is not either/or.  It is about balance and coherency among ends, ways, and means based on sound assumptions about the regime.  And both the ROK and US must align their assumptions for an effective alliance strategy for dealing with north Korea in its entirety and not just on the nuclear issue.

 

14. U.N. committee adopts resolution on N. Korea human rights violation

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 19, 2020

We neglect human rights at our peril and  of course to the peril of the Korean people living in the north.

But form the north - admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations: "There exist no human rights violations in North Korea that are described in the resolution," Kim Song, the chief of the North Korean mission to the U.N., claiming such accusations are based on false information from what he called "human trash North Korean defectors" that he claimed have been "woven" by enemy states.

 

15. China's policy on N.K. denuclearization consistent regardless of U.S. leadership change: Amb. Xing

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · November 18, 2020

The buried lede: "Xing also said during a forum hosted by his embassy that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit South Korea first ahead of any other country once the coronavirus pandemic situation stabilizes."

 

16. Biden Has Inherited a Nuclear North Korea

The National Interest · by Darcie Draudt · November 17, 2020

More on the $64,000 question. How will the regime act or react?

A sobering conclusion: "On the surface, North Korea’s response to the Biden administration may look a lot like its tactics with Obama, with the possible addition of high-level summits. But the strategic challenges are rather different. Unlike his predecessors, presumptive President-elect Biden has inherited a nuclear North Korea. Formerly taboo to even mention this in conversations with the foreign policy establishment, it’s now considered a strategic reality that requires serious thought. And savvy North Korea knows it could most certainly use this to its advantage."

 

17. Life After Donald Trump on the Korean Peninsula

The National Interest · by Stein Tønnesson · November 17, 2020

Do not throw the baby out with the bathwater. 

Another sobering conclusion: "In this way, Biden may keep the United States in the Northeast Asian game, and maintain its alliance with South Korea. The alternative is to face a drawn-out crisis that may eventually be resolved on Northeast Asian terms, among China, North and South Korea, perhaps with some Russian involvement, but with little regard for U.S. or Japanese interests."

 

18. Xi Jinping Doubles Down on Korean War Propaganda

Foreign Policy · by Doug Bandow · November 18, 2020

But, what are the themes and messages of the CPP, who are the target audiences and what do they hope to achieve in terms of influence those targets audiences?

Excerpt: "No one should doubt China’s resolution under fire. However, the United States proved its determination when it carried a global alliance against successive threatening powers. Both governments should avoid putting the other to the test. As Xi warned, “Once provoked, things will get ugly.” Which unfortunately is true for both sides."

 

--------------------

 

Heart is that by which the general masters.  Now order and confusion, bravery and cowardice, are qualities dominated by the heart.  Therefore the expert at controlling the enemy frustrates him and then moves against him.  He aggravates him to confuse him and harasses him to make him fearful.  He thus robs the enemy of his heart and his ability to plan.  

- Chang Yu, 1000

 

"An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes which can be made in a very narrow field." 

- Niels Bohr

 

Once a wrong idea about reality has been formed, it becomes more difficult to discover the truth.


-Unknown

 

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.


-Unknown

 

 

 

 

 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. The Need to Compete on Multiple Battlegrounds: An Interview with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster

2. China versus Democracy

3. DOD Announces Rare Earth Element Awards to Strengthen Domestic Industrial Base

4. How to Save Kabul From Saigon's Fate

5. Learn By Losing: Give AI To OPFOR First

6. More than 200 systems infected by new Chinese APT 'FunnyDream'

7. Scoop: The State Department to release Kennan-style paper on China

8. Hate Crimes in U.S. Rose to Highest Level in More Than a Decade in 2019

9. Regime Realism and Chinese Grand Strategy  

10. Trump Fires Official Who Disputed Baseless Claims of Election Fraud

11. The 3 elements of Trump's foreign policy Biden should keep

12. How "Mercenaries at Sea" Could Help the U.S. Navy Defeat Russia and China

13. Pentagon Plan Calls for Pulling All Troops from Somalia

14. Transforming The U.S. Military For The 21st Century

 

1. The Need to Compete on Multiple Battlegrounds: An Interview with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster

Small Wars Journal· November 17, 2020

 

2. China versus Democracy

National Review Online · by Michael Auslin · November 17, 2020

A handbook for democracies.

Excerpt:  "The great question facing the free world is how to deal with the PRC in this new era of competition. One answer is provided in a new "handbook" for democracies, published this week by the Halifax International Security Forum (HFX) to coincide with its annual conference. The handbook, entitled "China Vs. Democracy: The Greatest Game," is a primer on how the PRC threatens the open global society that is the source for most of its own wealth and power (full disclosure: I am the senior advisor for Asia at HFX, and was part of the team that produced the handbook). Divided into chapters that look at the CCP's oppression inside China, influence campaigns against democracies, the battle over global economic domination, the race for technological supremacy, and the military competition that may determine war or peace, the handbook is one of the first comprehensive attempts to chart the broad China challenge."

 

3. DOD Announces Rare Earth Element Awards to Strengthen Domestic Industrial Base

defense.gov

We need to fix the rare earth element challenge.  This would seem to be one area of great Power Competition.

Excerpt: 'MP Materials, who owns the largest rare earth element mining operation outside of China, has been awarded a DPA Title III technology investment agreement to establish domestic processing capabilities for light rare earth elements (LREE). LREEs are critical to numerous defense and commercial applications, including petroleum refining, glass additives, and magnets used in electric vehicle drivetrain motors and precision-guided munitions. Upon successful completion of this project, MP Materials will refine its current mixed rare earth concentrate production, which represents approximately 12 percent of global rare earth oxide content, into separated rare earth products at its site in Mountain Pass, California."

 

4. How to Save Kabul From Saigon's Fate

WSJ · by Bing West

Excerpts:

“In 1972 the U.S. signed a peace treaty that left thousands of North Vietnamese soldiers in South Vietnam. A few years later, North Vietnamese tanks rolled into Saigon as the world watched on TV. Respect for American resolve plummeted at home and abroad.”

“The Taliban share Islamist roots with terrorists who pursue murder on a global scale. A total U.S. withdrawal would lead to a resurgence of terror plots, no longer in danger of disruption. Instead, the U.S. should continue what it is doing: keep military presence low and lethality high, and tolerate a messy government in Kabul. With modest expense and low casualties, the benefits of withdrawal can't justify the costs.”

 

5. Learn By Losing: Give AI To OPFOR First

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

The subtitle says it all.

 

6. More than 200 systems infected by new Chinese APT 'FunnyDream'

ZDNet · by Catalin Cimpanu

Excerpt: "The malware infections are part of a widespread cyber-espionage campaign carried out by a group named FunnyDream, according to a new report published today by security firm Bitdefender."

 

7. Scoop: The State Department to release Kennan-style paper on China

Axios · by Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

Could be a potentially historical document. Or will it be dead on arrival?  Or will this document provide long term continuity and perhaps the basis for a new "NSC 68" that can transcend administrations?

The 74 page document can be downloaded here listing the 10 “key tasks”.

 

8. Hate Crimes in U.S. Rose to Highest Level in More Than a Decade in 2019

The New York Times · by Tim Arango · November 16, 2020

This data should make us all sad and ashamed.

 

9. Regime Realism and Chinese Grand Strategy, by Hal Brands, AEI November 2020

The 9-page document can be downloaded here.

 

10. Trump Fires Official Who Disputed Baseless Claims of Election Fraud

The New York Times · by David E. Sanger · November 18, 2020

Hmmm.... 

 

11. The 3 elements of Trump's foreign policy Biden should keep

Vox · by Alex Ward · November 17, 2020Good advice.

The 3:

Lesson 1: Don't be afraid to question foreign policy shibboleths

Lesson 2: Consider how foreign policy decisions will impact Americans at home

Lesson 3: Prioritize bringing American hostages home

 

12. How "Mercenaries at Sea" Could Help the U.S. Navy Defeat Russia and China

The National Interest · by Peter Suciu · November 17, 2020

Does history rhyme?

 

13. Pentagon Plan Calls for Pulling All Troops from Somalia

military.com · by John Vandiver · November 17, 2020

While everyone focuses on Afghanistan and Iraq, there is this...

 

14. Transforming The U.S. Military For The 21st Century

Forbes · by Daniel Araya · November 17, 2020

 

----------------

 

 

"Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none." 

- William Shakespeare 

 

"A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear."   

-Marcus Tullius Cicero (42B.C)

 

"This is a political war and it calls for discrimination in killing. The best weapon for killing would be a knife, but I'm afraid we can't do it that way. The worst is an airplane. The next worst is artillery. Barring a knife, the best is a rifle - you know who you're killing." 

- John Paul Vann

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Germany accuses Russia, China of stalling over North Korea fuel sanctions

2. Gov't Tightens Lockdown in Seoul

3. Biden keeps Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in check

4. Engaging North Korea Anew by Victor Cha

5. North Korea border closure continues amid global surge of COVID-19

6. Commentary: This country holds the key to unlocking the North Korea problem

7. N. Korea seen following social distancing measures at theaters

8. Readout for Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense Miller's Phone Call With Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Suh

9. Moon's problematic aide returns to public service

10. Japan, Australia Forge Closer Military Ties to Counter China

11. Satellite Images Suggest North Korea Is Training Kamikaze Dolphins

12. Suh, Miller reaffirm efforts to strengthen Korea-US alliance

13. Alleged Creep Claims He Used Steaks and Ponies to Spy on North Korea

 

1. Germany accuses Russia, China of stalling over North Korea fuel sanctions

Reuters · by Michelle Nichols · November 17, 2020

China and Russia are enabling north Korean sanctions evasion and protecting the regime at the UN.  Glad to see Germany calling them out.

 

2. Gov't Tightens Lockdown in Seoul

english.chosun.com· November 18, 2020

 

3. Biden keeps Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in check

donga.com· November 18, 2020

Just imagine if we had remained in TPP.

 

4. Engaging North Korea Anew by Victor Cha

Foreign Affairs · by Victor Cha · November 17, 2020

A political strategy will not defeat the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy.  We need a superior form of political warfare.

A wise Korea hand once said to me that just about everything that could be tried with north Korea has been tried and all we can do is keep repackaging previous actions in new ways to try to achieve some kind of progress.

However, we need to thoroughly assess the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime, and then develop a new strategy that will result in a new acceptable, durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK.US alliance interests.

We need to answer my 5 big questions:

1. What do we want to achieve in Korea?

2. What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?

3. Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)

4. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

5. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

Lastly there can be no doubt the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

5. North Korea border closure continues amid global surge of COVID-19

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim· November 17, 2020

Yes Kim is deathly afraid of a COVID-19 outbreak.  But he also is using COViD-19 to impose great controls on the population rein in the "freedoms" that have been developed ove the past two decades through balck market activities and the failure of the public distribution system as well as the availability of foreign currency and foreign goods.

 

6. Commentary: This country holds the key to unlocking the North Korea problem

channelnewsasia.com · by Jeffrey Robertson

Wow! It is interesting that someone would even ask this question.  Somehow I do not think there are many Koreans who would respond in the affirmative.

But I absolutely agree with the author's conclusion that we cannot neglect South Korea.  I would say that success on the Korean peninsula for both the South and the US can only come through a strong ROK/US alliance.

Excerpts:

“Should South Korea accede to China’s regional dominance?”

“The argument that South Korea should accede to China’s regional dominance sparks the hottest debate.”

 

7. N. Korea seen following social distancing measures at theaters

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · November 17, 2020

Perhaps they should not be going to theaters.

 

8. Readout for Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense Miller's Phone Call With Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Suh

defense.gov· November 17, 2020

Oh to be a fly on the wall for this conversation. :-) 

 

9. Moon's problematic aide returns to public service

The Korea Times · By Kang Seung-woo · November 17, 2020

I guess rehabilitation happens in the South as well.

 

10. Japan, Australia Forge Closer Military Ties to Counter China

WSJ · by Alastair Gale

Excerpt:

“Reflecting Australia’s close ties with Japan, Mr. Morrison was the first foreign leader to meet Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga in person since Mr. Suga took office in September.

The two released a joint statement that indirectly criticized China’s government on several issues and expressed “grave concerns over the situation in Hong Kong,” where Beijing this month forced the expulsion of pro-democracy lawmakers as part of its crackdown on dissent.

Japan, Australia Forge Closer Military Ties to Counter China

U.S. allies smooth way for more joint training and quick military support.”

 

11. Satellite Images Suggest North Korea Is Training Kamikaze Dolphins

Popular Mechanics · by Kyle Mizokami · November 17, 2020

 

12. Suh, Miller reaffirm efforts to strengthen Korea-US alliance

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · November 18, 2020

Note really any more details than was in the official statement.

 

13. Alleged Creep Claims He Used Steaks and Ponies to Spy on North Korea

The Daily Beast · by Adam Rawnsley · November 17, 2020

Bizarre.  There is no other word for this.

 

----------------

 

"Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none." 

- William Shakespeare 

 

"A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear."   

-Marcus Tullius Cicero (42B.C)

 

“This is a political war and it calls for discrimination in killing. The best weapon for killing would be a knife, but I'm afraid we can't do it that way. The worst is an airplane. The next worst is artillery. Barring a knife, the best is a rifle - you know who you're killing." 

- John Paul Vann

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Message to the Department - Acting Secretary Miller's Goals

2. Asia’s massive new trade deal is no big victory for Beijing

3. Kissinger warns Biden of U.S.-China catastrophe on scale of WWI

4. Malabar exercise that upsets China is a tectonic shift in power balance

5. Russian warships harassed American fishermen near Alaska, costing them $1 million in lost fishing catches

6. Five foreign policy “don’ts” for President Biden

7. Top Biden transition team member wrote widely criticized op-ed advocating First Amendment crackdown

8. What happened to the deepfake threat to the election?

9. US military anticipates Trump will issue order to plan for further troop withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq

10. COVID-19 is out of control. What can we do?

11. How the U.S. military buys location data from ordinary apps

12. The Chinese air force sure is buying a lot of bombers

13. WHO head ‘extremely concerned’ by increase in coronavirus cases

14. How Obama-era budget controls have hurt US military readiness against growing China, Russia, Iran threats

15. U.S. drawing up plans to withdraw troops from Iraq, Afghanistan

16. Now is not the time to shortchange national defense budget

17. U.S. Chamber statement on the Regional Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (RCEP)

18. Groupthink has left the left blind

19. Cutting U.S. defense attachés from embassies abroad is a bad idea

20. Rare-earth elements: a national security crisis

21. Analysis: Al Qaeda's deputy emir killed in Iran

22. Trump sought options for attacking Iran to stop its growing nuclear program

23. Strengthening the Indian-U.S. defense partnership

24. Solomon Islands government preparing to ban Facebook

25. Trump’s Afghan adios

 

1. Message to the Department - Acting Secretary Miller's Goals

US Department of Defense · November 16, 2020

 

2. Asia’s massive new trade deal is no big victory for Beijing

Wall Street Journal · Mike Bird · November 16, 2020

It sure seems like one. Perhaps TPP is better but we are not part of that agreement either.

 

3. Kissinger warns Biden of U.S.-China catastrophe on scale of WWI

Bloomberg · Peter Martin · November 16, 2020

An ominous warning from the elder statesman with an interesting proposal. I will be interested in hearing what the China experts say about this.

 

4. Malabar exercise that upsets China is a tectonic shift in power balance

Hindustan Times · Shishir Gupta · November 16, 2020

 

5. Russian warships harassed American fishermen near Alaska, costing them $1 million in lost fishing catches

Popular Mechanics · Kyle Mizokami · November 16, 2020

I have not seen any other reporting on this. Odd to see this in Popular Mechanics.

 

6. Five foreign policy “don’ts” for President Biden

Bulwark · Shay Khatiri · November 16, 2020

Korea does not make the "don't list."

 

7. Top Biden transition team member wrote widely criticized op-ed advocating First Amendment crackdown

Daily Wire · Ryan Saavedra · November 16, 2020

This gentleman could be as controversial as Michael Pack at USAGM.

 

8. What happened to the deepfake threat to the election?

Wired · Tom Simonite · November 16, 2020

The best (not so) "deep fake" of the election period was of Kim (and Putin) lecturing us on democracy.

But this is quite the analysis and one I did not expect to read. But after reading it, I think it has merit:

 

9. US military anticipates Trump will issue order to plan for further troop withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq

CNN · Barbara Starr · November 16, 2020

It should be an order rather than a tweet.

 

10. COVID-19 is out of control. What can we do?

Defense One · Thomas R. Frieden · November 16, 2020

The numbers of cases and deaths are staggering, but it is the number of hospitalizations that is overwhelming the medical facilities in many states. When as a nation are we going to commit to taking this seriously. I fear the news about the 2 vaccines is going to lull us into a greater sense of complacency, thinking we can wait it out until we can get vaccinated. But the vaccine is not a silver bullet and we are going to lose a lot of people (and a lot of people who survive could very well have long term and, in many cases, debilitating and perhaps permanent effects).

 

11. How the U.S. military buys location data from ordinary apps

Vice · Joseph Cox · November 16, 2020

It is amazing the information we can glean from open sources (and public records such as contracting information).  (I do wish USSOCOM was a branch of the military, but I digress).

 

12. The Chinese air force sure is buying a lot of bombers

Forbes · David Axe · November 16, 2020

Quantity has a quality...?

 

13. WHO head ‘extremely concerned’ by increase in coronavirus cases

VOA · VOA News · November 16, 2020

Not that I necessarily trust the head of the WHO, but I fear he is right.

 

14. How Obama-era budget controls have hurt US military readiness against growing China, Russia, Iran threats

Fox News · Hollie McKay · November 16, 2020

I am generally a supporter of divided government and political compromise. But this was one compromise that has done long term damage to the military and will continue to do so as long as it is in place. The damage is equally the responsibility of Republicans and Democrats. This is something the President must work with Congress to overturn, but I fear the progressive wing of the Democratic party will oppose anything that leads to a status quo or increased defense budget. If there are any deficit hawks left anywhere in Congress, they would likely try to prevent this from being overturned.

 

15. U.S. drawing up plans to withdraw troops from Iraq, Afghanistan

Wall Street Journal · Gordon Lubold & Nancy A. Youssef · November 16, 2020

There may be no turning back from this.

 

16. Now is not the time to shortchange national defense budget

Daily Signal · James Di Pane & Janae Diaz · November 16, 2020

Bring on the counterarguments to this article’s critically important conclusion. But this is the essence of leadership: to properly prioritize among scarce resources and make the hard decisions.

 

17. U.S. Chamber statement on the Regional Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (RCEP)

US Chamber of Commerce · November 16, 2020

The Chamber fears the US is being left behind. We made a strategic mistake by abandoning the TPP.

 

18. Groupthink gas left the left blind

New York Times · Bret Stephens · November 16, 2020

An interesting connection described in the first two paragraphs. His essay describes why I could never be a Democrat. Of course, I will never be a Republican either, though for different ideological reasons.  Maybe someday us g.. da... independents will take power. After all, we are near the majority in the US.

 

19. Cutting U.S. defense attachés from embassies abroad is a bad idea

Defense One · Larry Hanauer · November 16, 2020

I just cannot comprehend the military rationale for doing this. FAOs and the attaché program is such a miniscule investment that pay huge dividends over time. FAOs/attaches punch well above their weight and make important contributions to national security. This is so shortsighted.

The Who's "Tommy" may have faired well as a deaf, dumb, and blind pinball wizard, but our commanders will not.

 

20. Rare-earth elements: a national security crisis

Real Clear Defense · William A. Saxton · November 17, 2020

Here is some background information on REE that I was looking at recently to understand the REE challenge:

“Countering China’s Grip on Rare Earth Commodities” - Norbert Chang, November 7, 2019

“China’s Monopoly on Rare Earth Elements—and Why We Should Care” - June Teufel Dreyer, October 7, 2020

“Critical Minerals and U.S. Public Policy” - Congressional Research Service June 28, 2019  

The basic problem? China controls roughly 80% of REE and the US only reacts to this problem when there is a crisis to the supply chain.

 

21. Analysis: Al Qaeda's deputy emir killed in Iran

FDD's Long War Journal · Thomas Joscelyn · November 15, 2020

 

22. Trump sought options for attacking Iran to stop its growing nuclear program

New York Times · Eric Schmitt et al. · November 16, 2020

Before we get our hair on fire, this is what the national security team and Presidents do. Address a national security problem, ask for and evaluate options, take recommendations, and make a decision.  Yes, we can speculate about the timing, but the fact is we have one president. The current president is in office until January 20th. He and his national security team must continue to deal with national security issues. Whether we like the political perceptions or not, the fact is national security operations must continue regardless of the outcome of the election.

 

23. Strengthening the Indian-U.S. defense partnership

SLDinfo.com · Robbin Laird · November 17, 2020

 

24. Solomon Islands government preparing to ban Facebook

Guardian · Ben Doherty · November 17, 2020

 

25. Trump’s Afghan adios

Wall Street Journal · Editorial Board · November 16, 2020

The WSJ editorial board is not on board.

 

General Victor Hugo worked for the legendary Col. Edward Lansdale, the head of the Saigon Military Mission. Hugo noticed that everyone working for Lansdale was a lieutenant. He asked him why he only had lieutenants on his staff. Lansdale said “because when I ask them to do something, they don’t know they can’t do it.”

"Broadly speaking, the short words are the best, and the old words best of all."

- Sir Winston Churchill

"Arrogant and domineering people can't stand the least, lightest, faintest breath of criticism. It just kills them."

-Booth Tarkington

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. For Joe Biden, restoring the ROK-U.S. alliance is critical for any successful North Korea policy

2. Trump’s North Korea legacy could survive Biden

3. Biden win 'causes panic' in N.Korea

4. KJU attends 20th PB meeting of the 7th Central Committee

5. South Korea hopes Joe Biden will reboot the U.S.-ROK alliance

6. Renew, elevate, modernize: a blueprint for a 21st-century U.S.-ROK alliance strategy

7. How Joe Biden could use a "carrot and stick" strategy with North Korea

8. Gordon Chang: history tells us Joe Biden's North Korea coalition idea will fail

9. Kim Jong-un's top priority (for now) is coronavirus, not Joe Biden

10. Let the record show: it’s not all about us

11. Column: Biden must focus early on North Korea

12. U.S. destroyer intercepts target mimicking a North Korean ICBM

13. Free trade agreement talks with Japan and ROK gaining speed

14. N. Korean officials try to get accurate read on the economy

15. Kim Jong-Un lambasts corruption at medical school

16. N. Korea completes deployment of Kumsong-3 cruise missiles on land and at sea

17. Chinese FM to visit Korea later this month

18. N.K. paper demands Japan's apology, compensation for colonial-era atrocities

19. WHO reports continue to contradict North's claims of zero virus cases

20. Unification minister to discuss denuclearization with ex-U.S. defense secretary

21. N. Korea stiffs Egyptian telecom out of earnings

22. North Korea's watch and wait strategy on Joe Biden

 

1. For Joe Biden, restoring the ROK-U.S. alliance is critical for any successful North Korea policy

National Interest · David Maxwell & Matthew Ha · November 12, 2020

The latest from Mathew Ha and me.

I want to flag the excerpt:

"The other component of a successful Korea strategy for the new Biden administration should be reaching a shared consensus with Seoul on the fundamental nature of North Korea’s Kim family regime, its strategies, and its objectives.

The Moon administration is currently laboring under the false assumption that Kim Jong-un shares Seoul’s vision for peace and reconciliation. Seoul’s leadership seeks to initiate economic, cultural, and humanitarian engagement projects to build trust toward peace with North Korea. Unfortunately for Moon, Kim Jong-un has rejected the South Korean leader’s olive branches. Instead, Kim has continued his family’s political warfare strategy of using military provocations to force its adversaries to provide concessions, such as premature sanctions relief, and to de-escalate tensions by forcing U.S. and/or South Korean concessions.

Washington and Seoul must avoid making the mistake of ceding to Kim’s demands just to bring him to the negotiating table. Kim Jong-un will only view such a capitulation as weakness and will then demand more.

Biden therefore should remind Moon that the alliance must develop a new strategy that aims to break Kim’s adherence to his family’s diplomatic playbook. Biden and Moon should retain the existing strategic working group that brings together personnel from the U.S. State Department and South Korean Foreign Ministry, so the working group can craft and adopt the new strategy."

 

2. Trump’s North Korea legacy could survive Biden

Asia Times · Michael Bassett · November 16, 2020

Surely some out of the box thinking from Michael Bassett. A "70 day speed battle" by President Trump?  A US embassy Pyongyang?

 

3. Biden win 'causes panic' in N. Korea

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Myong-song · November 16, 2020

I would be skeptical of this report. I think there are many other causes for skyrocketing prices in North Korea.

 

4. KJU attends 20th PB meeting of the 7th Central Committee

North Korea Leadership Watch · November 16, 2020

As I said reset the Kim watch countdown clock.

Is this really new? It seems senior leaders have been rehabilitated before and "returned to duty" so to speak.  After hearing the gulag warden say to them in the "Cool Hand Luke" way" we are going to get your mind right."  but I guess it is the expansion that is significant.  Maybe he cannot afford to lose to many senior officials because he does not have a lot of competent "depth."

 

5. South Korea hopes Joe Biden will reboot the U.S.-ROK alliance

National Interest · Seong-hyon Lee · November 16, 2020

Yes and the US will want to work with allies and partners to build a top-level team for the competition with China. The new administration will be asking the ROK to participate just as the Trump administration did.

 

6. Renew, elevate, modernize: a blueprint for a 21st-century U.S.-ROK alliance strategy

CNAS · Kristin Lee, Joshua Fitt, & Coby Goldberg · November 16, 2020

The 26-page report can be downloaded here.

I think this report was heavily influenced by the ideas Ambassador Lippert has been talking about for some years now. I suppose that is why he was asked to write the forward.

CNAS has a lot of influence with the incoming administration so I expect the ideas in this report will contribute to the Korea policy.

 

7. How Joe Biden could use a "carrot and stick" strategy with North Korea

National Interest · Bruce W. Bennett · November 16, 2020

I concur with Dr. Bennett. We need to execute diplomacy from a position of strength that includes actions and not just words. However, I fear some of the carrots such as aid for COVID-19 may not be acceptable to Kim because it will expose his weaknesses and, like the promise of "a brighter future," it will also contribute to engagement with the population and information flow or (at least "spillover") to the Korean people in the North. We must see not only the sticks but also the carrots through the eye and mind of Kim Jong-Un. Franky, I do not think any form of humanitarian assistance is a carrot to Kim.

 

8. Gordon Chang: history tells us Joe Biden's North Korea coalition idea will fail

National Interest · Gordon G. Chang · November 16, 2020

I do believe another round of 6 party talks will be a failure. We cannot have any expectation that China and Russia will make positive contributions. In fact, unlike the 6 party talks when there was some slight cooperation and alignment on denuclearization with Kim Jong-Il facing an almost 5 against 1 ratio, a renewal of the 6 party talks will be at best a 3 against 3. China and Russia (as well as North Korea) will use such a venue to continue to conduct political warfare. On the other hand, if we recognize this fact and we are willing to execute a superior form of political warfare, there could be some use to the 6 party talks. But unless we are willing to aggressively conduct our own political warfare on multiple levels, I would advise against a renewal of the 6 party talks. They will in no way result in the denuclearization of the North.

 

9. Kim Jong-Un's top priority (for now) is coronavirus, not Joe Biden

National Interest · Jihwan Hwang · November 16, 2020

Yes, the coronavirus is a game changer and a condition unlike any other. Yes, I have made the argument that it could cause a humanitarian disaster on a scale equal to or greater than the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-96. However, starvation of the Korean people is one thing. A pandemic that could roar through the ranks of the elite and the military and the entire party leadership is quite different and unlike anything the Kim family regime has ever faced. 

 

10. Let the record show: it’s not all about us

38 North · Editor’s Column · November 16, 2020

True. It is not always about us. Although North Korean messages can have multiple target audiences, they do not always include us. But I would say the majority of time such actions are messages for us.

And sometimes weapons tests are not meant as messages at all for domestic or external consumption.  Sometimes tests are simply necessary to advance a weapons program and capability (though, after the capability is developed, tests may be used for messaging).

 

11. Column: Biden must focus early on North Korea

Star Advertiser · Dan Leaf · November 15, 2020

I recall many alliance and OPLAN briefings from then Colonel Leaf when he was the D/J3 in Korea.

 

12. U.S. destroyer intercepts target mimicking a North Korean ICBM

Bloomberg · Anthony Capaccio · November 17, 2020

Excellent news. Go Navy!

 

13. Free trade agreement talks with Japan and ROK gaining speed

China Daily · Ouyang Shijia · November 17, 2020

Can a trilateral FTA be good for our alliance partners and for our alliances?

 

14. N. Korean officials try to get accurate read on the economy

Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · November 17, 2020

This is the standard Kim family regime playbook.

 

15. Kim Jong-Un lambasts corruption at medical school

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Myong-song · November 17, 2020

Assigning blame is an important aspect of Korean culture. Of course, in the North it is taken to the extreme (though, in the South extreme blame happens, too… re: President Park and the Sewol ferry tragedy).

 

16. N. Korea completes deployment of Kumsong-3 cruise missiles on land and at sea

Dialy NK · Jeong Tae Joo · November 17, 2020

I wonder what the intelligence analysts at ROK/US CFC, ROK MND and JCS, INDPACOM, and in the DC beltway are assessing from all the ISR systems that are looking at the North?

 

17. Chinese FM to visit Korea later this month

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Eun-joong · November 17, 2020

Prepping for a Xi visit?

 

18. N.K. paper demands Japan’s apology, compensation for colonial-era atrocities

Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · November 17, 2020

We should not forget that Japan only provided reparations to South Korea. Of course, the legitimacy of the regime requires external threats and enemies and there is no better enemy than Japan for domestic propaganda purposes.

 

19. WHO reports continue to contradict North's claims of zero virus cases

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · November 17, 2020

COVID-19 could be a greater threat than the South and the US. What if there is a widespread outbreak among the North Korean People's Army? What would the regime do if that happened?

 

20. Unification minister to discuss denuclearization with ex-U.S. defense secretary

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · November 17, 2020

I wonder if they will discuss the former SECDEF's recommendations for a preemptive strike against the North's missiles.

2006 Time op-ed from Ash Carter and William Perry: “The Case for a Preemptive Strike on North Korea's Missiles”

My response for calls for a preemptive strike: “A Preemptive Strike on North Korea?”  

 

21. N. Korea stiffs Egyptian telecom out of earnings

Chosun Ilbo · Roh Suk-jo · November 17, 2020

Not again? Or I should ask, still have not paid them?

Not only is North Korea not a responsible member of the international community, it does not live up to acceptable business stands and practices.

 

22. North Korea's watch and wait strategy on Joe Biden

National Interest · Minseon Ku · November 16, 2020

 

General Victor Hugo worked for the legendary Col. Edward Lansdale, the head of the Saigon Military Mission. Hugo noticed that everyone working for Lansdale was a lieutenant. He asked him why he only had lieutenants on his staff. Lansdale said “because when I ask them to do something, they don’t know they can’t do it.”

"Broadly speaking, the short words are the best, and the old words best of all."

- Sir Winston Churchill

"Arrogant and domineering people can't stand the least, lightest, faintest breath of criticism. It just kills them."

-Booth Tarkington

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Moderna’s covid-19 vaccine Is 94.5% effective, early results show

2. China's new wolf warrior diplomacy is a Maoist resurrection

3. Hopes and doubts in Beijing

4. How Biden and Xi can keep the new cold war from turning hot

5. More than 100K federal employees have had COVID-19

6. Coronavirus cases are spiking at federal agencies

7. Scoop: Trump plans last-minute China crackdown

8. The new world order that President Biden will inherit

9. Hollyanne Milley, wife of Joint Chiefs chairman, saves veteran's life at Arlington

10. SEALs, green berets join large defense drill in Sweden

11. Who is Michelle Flournoy? Meet Biden’s likely pick to head the Pentagon

12. America’s forgotten marine highway network that could green global freight transport

13. In the mercenaries’ own words: documents detail TigerSwan infiltration of Standing Rock

14. Woman who compiled SAS 'war crimes' report breaks her silence

15. Father and son, both active-duty officers, graduate Ranger School exactly 35 years apart

16. Special Operations Warrior Foundation leaves no child of America’s fallen special operators behind

 

1. Moderna’s covid-19 vaccine Is 94.5% effective, early results show

Wall Street Journal · Peter Loftus · November 16, 2020

We should be very hopeful. But now the challenge begins. We have got to get this out to the world to break the hold the virus has on all of us. But we cannot become complacent, because the rate of positive cases and hospitalizations is rising so fast.

 

2. China's new wolf warrior diplomacy is a Maoist resurrection

Sydney Morning Herald · Anne-Marie Brady · November 16, 2020

 

3. Hopes and doubts in Beijing

Foreign Affairs · Cheng Li · November 13, 2020

I just hope no one produces a "reset button."

 

4. How Biden and Xi can keep the new cold war from turning hot

Bloomberg · Niall Ferguson · November 15, 2020

We need to successfully compete across the spectrum while not allowing the cold war to turn hot. We have to be able to conduct a superior form of political warfare.

 

5. More than 100K federal employees have had COVID-19

News Max · Eric Mack · November 15, 2020

 

6. Coronavirus cases are spiking at federal agencies

Defense One · Eric Katz · November 15, 2020

More details on key agencies.

 

7. Scoop: Trump plans last-minute China crackdown

Axios · Jonathan Swan & Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian · November 15, 2020

This is one area (among many) that should require transition coordination.

 

8. The new world order that President Biden will inherit

New York Times · Editorial Board · November 15, 2020

Some of the scariest words: “New World Order." Recall when President George H.W. Bush used them after the fall of the USSR, how they were blown out of proportion by extremists who think they meant a global government structure.

 

9. Hollyanne Milley, wife of Joint Chiefs chairman, saves veteran's life at Arlington

Military.com · Richard Sisk · November 13, 2020

Hooah. Kudos to Mrs. Milley.

 

10. SEALs, green berets join large defense drill in Sweden

Military.com · John Vandiver · November 15, 2020

Implementing the Resistance Operating Concept. Good work. Here is a summary of the concept. 

 

11. Who is Michelle Flournoy? Meet Biden’s likely pick to head the Pentagon

Fortune · Lolita C. Baldor, Robert Burns, & the AP · November 15, 2020

 

12. America’s forgotten marine highway network that could green global freight transport

Forbes · Nishan Degnarain · November 15, 2020

 

13. In the mercenaries’ own words: documents detail TigerSwan infiltration of Standing Rock

Intercept · Alleen Brown · November 15, 2020

Very interesting story.

 

14. Woman who compiled SAS 'war crimes' report breaks her silence

Daily Mail · Alana Mazzoni · November 15, 2020

Tragic story from Australia.

 

15. Father and son, both active-duty officers, graduate Ranger School exactly 35 years apart

Army Times · Harm Venhuizen · November 15, 2020

The family business. How many parent-children military personnel do we have?

 

16. Special Operations Warrior Foundation leaves no child of America’s fallen special operators behind

Coffee or Die · Nolan Peterson · November 15, 2020

One of the important charitable organizations to which I give every year.  Kudos to Clay Hutmacher.  (and heartfelt thanks to Ross Perot and his vision)

 

"Propaganda vs. Truth. How can I tell them apart? The answer is simple: If you agree with it, it is the truth. If you don't agree, it's propaganda."

- Psychological Warfare, Second Edition, by Paul Linebarger, Combat Forces Press, Washington D.C. 1954

General Melchett: “If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.”

- “Blackadder Goes Forth”

"The young always have the same problem - how to rebel and conform at the same time. They have solved this by defying their parents and copying one another."

- Quentin Crisp

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Choe Son Hui reworking N. Korea's foreign policy strategy toward US

2. The underground movement trying to topple the North Korean regime

3, An interview with the U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Korea

4. N.K. leader presides over politburo meeting in first public appearance in 25 days

5. With Joe Biden in charge, no more flashy Kim Jong Un summits

6. N.Korea's Kim orders tightening of anti-virus measures amid global pandemic -KCNA

7. One of Biden’s first acts as president-elect was to antagonize Kim Jong Un

8. Korea must stop taking Chinese chicanery lying down

9. U.S. ambassador congratulates four Korean Americans on winning U.S. House elections

10. Why is North Korea so good at cybercrime?

11. ICBM test or talks? Why North Korea might negotiate with Joe Biden

12. Seoul sends a series of signals to Tokyo

13. Ruling party lawmakers head to U.S. for discussions on N.K., alliance following Biden's election

14. S. Korea warns of another wave of pandemic as new virus cases over 200 for 3rd day

15. 8 members of voice phishing ring arrested amid suspicions of link to N.K. hacker

16. S. Korea decides to spend 1.95 bln won to transform DMZ guard post into museum

17. Moon mulls cabinet shake-up to affect three to four ministers: sources

18. Remains of 2 Korean independence fighters repatriated from U.S.

 

1. Choe Son Hui reworking N. Korea's foreign policy strategy toward US

Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · November 16, 2020

How many people in the US government, current or past, know Choi? Perhaps we have had an effect on the regime? I am being very optimistic here and interpreting this as the possibility the regime may be willing to have substantive working level negotiations. My very pessimistic side tells me the regime is re-evaluating and adjusting its strategy to give the appearance of seeking working level negotiations when in reality it sees an opportunity to refine its political warfare strategy and long con with the new administration. As we move forward, we need to continually assess the regime asking two key questions:

1. Do we believe that Kim Jong-Un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy—that of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
2. In support of that strategy, do we believe that Kim Jong-Un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

We must evaluate changes in the regime's strategy by assessing these two questions.

 

2. The underground movement trying to topple the North Korean regime

New Yorker · Suki Kim · November 16, 2020

A long article that details: Adrian Hong; his efforts with LINK; the NGO work he did; Free Joseon; the "rescue" of Kim Han Sol; the Madrid incident at the North Korean embassy, and his subsequent efforts to remain in hiding.

My thoughts on supporting Korean unification and resistance in North Korea are here.

Should The United States Support Korean Unification And If So, How? (International Journal of Korean Studies, Vol. XVIII, No. 1)

Unification Options and Scenarios: Assisting A Resistance (International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, Vol. 24, No. 2, 2015, 127–152)

 

3. An interview with the U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Korea

USNI · Proceedings · November 2020

A classic line from the Ambassador! "Right now, I’d like to fly anything other than my BMD-1A. (That’s Big Mahogany Desk.)"

On a serious note, this interview covers a lot of ground, not only about our linchpin alliance but also insights about DOD, DOS, China, and a free and open INDOPAFIC.

 

4. N.K. leader presides over politburo meeting in first public appearance in 25 days

Yonhap News Agency · 장재순 · November 16, 2020

A Kim Jong-Un sighting - time to restart the "Kim watch clock."

 

5. With Joe Biden in charge, no more flashy Kim Jong Un summits

Wall Street Journal · Andrew Jeong · November 16, 2020

An ominous subtitle: "The president-elect will be the first to enter office with a North Korea that has shown an ability to hit the U.S. mainland with a missile"

 

6. N.Korea's Kim orders tightening of anti-virus measures amid global pandemic -KCNA

National Post · Sangmi Cha & Peter Cooney (Reuters) · November 15, 2020

Kim is afraid, very afraid of COVID-19.

 

7. One of Biden’s first acts as president-elect was to antagonize Kim Jong Un

Daily Beast · Donald Kirk · November 16, 2020

The message I was referring to in my comment below was, in addition to his attendance at the Veteran's Day ceremony, Biden's op-ed in Yonhap News on October 30.

 

8. Korea must stop taking Chinese chicanery lying down

Chosun Ilbo · November 16, 2020

South Korea must deal with China as it really is and not as it wishes it would be.

 

9. U.S. ambassador congratulates four Korean Americans on winning U.S. House elections

Yonhap News Agency · 김승연 · November 16, 2020

Again, Koreans are very proud of their Korean Americans, who were elected to Congress in the US, and the Ambassador acknowledges their success.

 

10. Why is North Korea so good at cybercrime?

Diplomat · Jason Bartlett · November 13, 2020

Necessity is the mother of invention and desperation is the father of illicit activities. The regime's "all-purpose sword" is a critical capability for survival of the regime and its ability to advance its strategy.

 

11. ICBM test or talks? Why North Korea might negotiate with Joe Biden

National Interest · Robert E. Kelly · November 15, 2020

North Korea will negotiate especially if Kim thinks he can successfully execute his political warfare strategy and long con through negotiation. But we should recognize that will only be one line of effort toward the regime's objective to dominate the peninsula under the domination of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

The short-term objective of negotiations will be to get sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear weapons.

 

12. Seoul sends a series of signals to Tokyo

Dong-A Ilbo · Young-Sik Kim · November 16, 2020

The one signal that President Moon and Prime Minister Suga need to send the other is the commitment to prioritize national security and national prosperity while they separately manage the historical issues.

 

13. Ruling party lawmakers head to U.S. for discussions on N.K., alliance following Biden's election

Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · November 15, 2020

 

14. S. Korea warns of another wave of pandemic as new virus cases over 200 for 3rd day

Yonhap News Agency · 김은정 · November 16, 2020

We cannot get a worldwide vaccine and vaccination program fast enough.

 

15. 8 members of voice phishing ring arrested amid suspicions of link to N.K. hacker

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · November 16, 2020

Witting or unwitting?

 

16. S. Korea decides to spend 1.95 bln won to transform DMZ guard post into museum

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · November 16, 2020

The Arrowhead area is a "beautiful" historic site. If the guard post is the one on the high ground overlooking Arrowhead in the 5th Division AOR, it could use a good infusion of cash to improve it, but it focuses more on the war and the threat and will have to be revamped to include inter-Korean reconciliation. Yes, there needs to be peace and conciliation, but the Korean people in the South also must not be allowed to forget or overlook the remaining existential threat the North poses.

 

17. Moon mulls cabinet shake-up to affect three to four ministers: sources

Yonhap News Agency · 이치동 · November 16, 2020

I did not see this coming. Foreign Minister Kang has a very tough job having to compete with the Ministry of Unification, the NIS, and the advisors in the Blue House.

 

18. Remains of 2 Korean independence fighters repatriated from U.S.

Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · November 16, 2020

 

"Propaganda vs. Truth. How can I tell them apart? The answer is simple: If you agree with it, it is the truth. If you don't agree, it's propaganda."

- Psychological Warfare, Second Edition, by Paul Linebarger, Combat Forces Press, Washington D.C. 1954

"General Melchett: 'If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.'”

- “Blackadder Goes Forth”

"The young always have the same problem - how to rebel and conform at the same time. They have solved this by defying their parents and copying one another."

- Quentin Crisp

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Video in Honor of the late Major General Victor J. Hugo Jr., USA (Ret.)

2. The Pandemic Is Revealing a New Form of National Power

3. Missile Defense Drama: Why America Isn't Prepared

4. Taiwan Defense Ministry, Pentagon deny U.S. Marines' presence for training

5. To Fight the Next Pandemic, the World Needs Chinese Activists

6. Opinion | The coronavirus's origins are still a mystery. We need a full investigation.

7. Parler Makes Play for Conservatives Mad at Facebook, Twitter

8. Christmas terror attack: Security expert issues a chilling warning

9. A harder US line? Potential Pentagon chief floated idea to sink China fleet in 72 hours

10. In Trump's final days, a 30-year-old aide purges officials seen as insufficiently loyal

11. The US and Japan Are Digging in their Heels Over the Senkaku Islands

12. US urges Japan and South Korea to speak out against China despite trading relationship

13. Rolling Back Trump's Workforce Policies Won't Be Simple

14. A Decade Later, this Afghanistan Special Operations Story is Finally Coming to the Screen

15. 3 legendary leaders who made America's special-operations units into the elite forces they are today

16. Asia-Pacific nations sign world's biggest free-trade agreement

17. Top NPA leader killed in clash in Zamboanga del Norte - military

 

1. Video in Honor of the late Major General Victor J. Hugo Jr., USA (Ret.)

MG Victor Hugo died from COVID-19 in April and was interred at Arlington yesterday. This 13 minute video is a fitting tribute to him. MG Hugo was at the tip of the spear for so many important missions in the Army and after his retirement and many are recounted in this short video. It is very much worth watching His life was full of more adventure than you could read in a novel. And he made lasting contributions to our national security much as a result of his Special Forces training, experience, and expertise. We should all aspire to live up to his example.

It was an honor to know him these past many years. I had the good fortune to be part of the team with him working on the National Museum for Intelligence and Special Operations as a member of the OSS Society board of directors.

https://vimeo.com/477261473/5ec5854d

 

2. The Pandemic Is Revealing a New Form of National Power

The Atlantic · by Uri Friedman · November 15, 2020

There is a lot to be said for the importance of resilience in everything from dealing with pandemics to cyber-attacks to even nuclear attacks.

An interesting excerpt:  "The scholar Bruce Jones has chronicled how a number of the world's "middle powers" have, "in the absence of credible great-power leadership from the United States or China ... led the way in coordinating health and economic responses" to COVID-19-an extension of their pre-pandemic efforts to bolster the multilateral system. They have, for instance, collaborated on financial responses through the Group of Seven and raised billions of dollars for international work on developing and distributing vaccines. Middle-power governments that have navigated the crisis relatively well have bolstered their reputations at home and abroad. Governments that have fared relatively poorly have sustained serious damage to their reputations and thus their standing at home and stores of soft power abroad."

 

3. Missile Defense Drama: Why America Isn't Prepared

The National Interest · by Peter Huessy · November 14, 2020

Excerpts:

Given the importance of the homeland defense mission, we must continue to invest in this critical capability. The current GBI system, though impressive, was developed under enormous time pressures using technologies from the late 1990s. We now have the opportunity, based on decades of experience, to do the next job better with the complimentary NGI program.

Remember, the enemies of the United States are not dealing with continuing resolutions, split legislatures or budget shortfalls. They are proceeding rapidly toward the future as made clear by the new North Korean ICBM threat. Congress must provide the full funding for GBI updates and accelerate the military's effort to develop and deploy this new NGI homeland defense capability - and bring it home on time and on budget.

 

4. Taiwan Defense Ministry, Pentagon deny U.S. Marines' presence for training

japantimes.co.jp · by Jesse Johnson · November 13, 2020

It would be interesting to run this whole incident to ground.  Who provided the information to the Taiwanese media that originally published the report?  What was the internet and who was the target audience?  And of course did some kind of training actually take place and was it blown out of proportion?

The reports seemed pretty specific regarding the presence and training of MARSOC's Raiders.

 

5. To Fight the Next Pandemic, the World Needs Chinese Activists

thediplomat.com – by Sara L.M. Davis, Shen Tingting, and Lu Jun - November 13, 2020

Very interesting thesis.

Conclusion: "These community systems supplement the formal health system, because they enjoy the trust of those who are most vulnerable. An authoritarian approach is short-sighted; it weakens a country's immune system, leaving the whole world vulnerable to the next outbreak. By clamping down on civil society and community groups, the state has weakened public health and repeated the errors committed during the SARS and HIV epidemic. In so doing, the state may have undermined its long-term ability to respond to future infectious disease outbreaks. COVID-19 is under control in China, for now - but how will the world know about the next pandemic without these independent voices?"

As an aside, this is also why activists around the world need access to the tools that have been provided by the US Agency for Global Media to be able to circumvent internet censorship and to be able to communicate with the outside world.  It is too bad that USAGM appears to have halted funding for them.

 

6. Opinion | The coronavirus's origins are still a mystery. We need a full investigation.

The Washington Post · by Editorial Board · November 14, 2020

Interesting OpEd from the WAPOST Editorial Board, though I am sure some are hoping for the conspiracy theory explanation that this was a deliberate act by China (and more specifically the CCP). This OpEd does not go down that rabbit hole.

Excerpt: "Preventing the next pandemic," wrote Dr. Relman, "depends on understanding the origins of this one."

 

7. Parler Makes Play for Conservatives Mad at Facebook, Twitter

WSJ · by Jeff Horwitz and Keach Hagey

I would not be surprised if in the next year or two Parler is bought out and absorbed by one of the major social media companies.  It is all about the benjamins.

 

8. Christmas terror attack: Security expert issues a chilling warning

WSJ · by Jeff Horwitz and Keach Hagey

A warning for Australia.

 

9. A harder US line? Potential Pentagon chief floated idea to sink China fleet in 72 hours

news.abs-cbn.com · by Liu Zhen

Sigh... I think Ms Flournoy was taken out of context. She was talking about deterrence and posting a "what if" to support deterrence.

Excerpt:  "For example, if the US military had the capability to credibly threaten to sink all of China's military vessels, submarines, and merchant ships in the South China Sea within 72 hours, Chinese leaders might think twice before, say, launching a blockade or invasion of Taiwan; they would have to wonder whether it was worth putting their entire fleet at risk," Flournoy said."

Here is the link to Ms Flournoy's article in Foriegn Affairs: How to Prevent a War in Asia: The Erosion of American Deterrence Raises the Risk of Chinese Miscalculation, June 18, 2020:  https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-18/how-prevent-war-asia

 

10. In Trump's final days, a 30-year-old aide purges officials seen as insufficiently loyal

The Washington Post · November 14, 2020

Personnel is policy.  This is quite a report.

 

11. The US and Japan Are Digging in their Heels Over the Senkaku Islands

The National Interest · by Brian Victoria · November 15, 2020

A line in the sand (or the ocean)?

This is a historical analysis that seeks to undermine the Japanese claims to the islands.

 

12. US urges Japan and South Korea to speak out against China despite trading relationship

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3109845/us-urges-japan-and-south-korea-speak-out-against

US urges Japan and South Korea to speak out against China despite trading relationship

 

13. Rolling Back Trump's Workforce Policies Won't Be Simple

defenseone.com · by Erich Wagner

Again, personnel is policy. We forget that our civil service is full of servants who choose to serve our country in a civilian capacity.  Just like in any are of the government, the military, or private industry there are people who should be removed for inferior performance.  However, we should not be approaching our civil service and personnel policies from the perspective that our civil service is the enemy or worse, the "deep state."

 

14. A Decade Later, this Afghanistan Special Operations Story is Finally Coming to the Screen

military.com · by James Barber · November 13, 2020

I would be interested to know how many Rangers from the actual tragic incident will be involved in consulting on the making of this film.

 

15. 3 legendary leaders who made America's special-operations units into the elite forces they are today

whobserver.com · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · November 13, 2020

Beckwith, Bargewell, and McChrystal.

 

16. Asia-Pacific nations sign world's biggest free-trade agreement

DW · by Deutsche Welle

 

"It has actually been suggested that warfare may have been the principle evolutionary pressure that created the huge gap between the human brain and that of our closest living relatives, the anthropoid apes. Whole groups of hominids with inferior brains could not win wars and were therefore exterminated."

- Jane Goodall

 

"The mind of the enemy and the will of his leaders is a target of far more importance than the bodies of his troops. "

-  Brigadier General S.B. Griffith, II, USMC

 

"Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment nothing can fail. Without it nothing can succeed. He who molds opinion is greater than he who enacts laws."

- President Abraham Lincoln

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. From love to thug, what President-elect Biden means for North Korea

2. North Korea's Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) Deserve Our Attention

3. Did these 'Assassins' actually kill Kim Jong Un's brother?

4. Relations Between Biden and Kim Jong-un Don't Have to Go Wrong

5. Before Trump, South Korean Conservatives Also Claimed a 'Stolen' Election

6. North Korean nukes 'scared off top footballers from joining South Korean clubs'

7. Congress to vote on resolutions reaffirming strength of alliance with Korea

8. Seoul mulls stricter social distancing as new infections exceed 200 for 2nd day

9. Demographic crisis looming large over Korea

10. Moon seeks to rekindle nuclear talks at Tokyo Olympics

11. German amb. says freedom of expression important amid row over 'comfort woman' statue in Berlin

12. Ruling party envisions moving National Assembly from Seoul to Sejong

 

1. From love to thug, what President-elect Biden means for North Korea

CNN · by Paula Hancocks

Key point from Evans Revere:  "Biden is not about to ignore North Korea, and Pyongyang can be counted on to ensure that he doesn't."

 

2. North Korea's Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) Deserve Our Attention

The National Interest · by Peter Brookes · November 14, 2020

The key points we should take from the "new" SLBM and ICBM is that the Kim regime remains bent on developing new military capabilities across the spectrum, from conventional to nuclear weapons, and will continue to conduct blackmail diplomacy to gain political and economic concessions by demonstrating threats and hostile intentions.  But all of these actions are focused on one objective - to allow the north to dominate the entire peninsula through subversion, coercion/extortion, and use of force to ensure. survival of the regime.

 

3. Did these 'Assassins' actually kill Kim Jong Un's brother?

New York Post · by Ben Cost · November 12, 2020

I still have not found where this movie will be shown. I wonder what are "virtual cinemas?"  It looks like December 11th is the date.

 

4. Relations Between Biden and Kim Jong-un Don't Have to Go Wrong

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · November 14, 2020

Yes. All we need is for Kim Jong-un to completely change his behavior and act like a responsible member of the international community. 

But I can agree with this conclusion: "The Kim dynasty has proven its meddle in surviving. But that doesn't mean Pyongyang still wouldn't like to see economic sanctions relaxed or lifted at some point. Kim can kiss that possibility goodbye if he shoots before he thinks."

 

5. Before Trump, South Korean Conservatives Also Claimed a 'Stolen' Election

thediplomat.com – by Dongwoo Kim - November 11, 2020

The difference is the US government has stated this:  "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised."

Joint Statement from Elections Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council & the Election Infrastructure Sector Coordinating Executive Committees | CISA

https://www.cisa.gov/news/2020/11/12/joint-statement-elections-infrastructure-government-coordinating-council-election

 

6. North Korean nukes 'scared off top footballers from joining South Korean clubs'

dailystar.co.uk · by Berny Torre · November 15, 2020

Excerpt:

He added: "It wasn't too much of a worry but it's always in the back of your mind that North Korea is there.

"One of the benefits of being in Busan in the south east was you were in the part of Korea which was the furthest from North Korea.

"All of the clubs area based in Seoul and they are very very close to North Korea."

 

7. Congress to vote on resolutions reaffirming strength of alliance with Korea

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Again, Korea is one of the most bi-partisan of all national security issues.

However, I wish our Congress would recommend a reassessment of combined alliance assumptions about north Korea and the nature, strategy, and objectives of the Kim family regime.  The incoming administration needs to work with South Korea to help the Moon administration that we cannot proceed with Moon's peace vision if Kim Jong-un does not share that vision (and he does not).

Excerpt:  "Korea-U.S. relations [mean] we are allies that must closely cooperate no matter which administration is in power," Song said. "We will work to ensure the Korean Peninsula peace policy advocated by President Moon may be accepted by the Biden administration by improving mutual understanding."

 

8. Seoul mulls stricter social distancing as new infections exceed 200 for 2nd day

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · November 15, 2020

The virus is proving most resilient around the world.

 

9. Demographic crisis looming large over Korea

The Korea Times – by Kim Bo-eun - November 15, 2020

This is a major (if not the major) strategic weakness of South Korea.  What this article does not address is the impact on the South Korean military.

 

10. Moon seeks to rekindle nuclear talks at Tokyo Olympics

The Korea Times · November 15, 2020

It worked once??? What is Plan B if the Olympics are again postponed or cancelled?

 

11. German amb. says freedom of expression important amid row over 'comfort woman' statue in Berlin

The Korea Times · November 15, 2020

I bet Germany wishes it did not get in the middle of this.

 

12. Ruling party envisions moving National Assembly from Seoul to Sejong

koreaherald.com · by The Ko Jun-tae · November 15, 2020

 

"It has actually been suggested that warfare may have been the principle evolutionary pressure that created the huge gap between the human brain and that of our closest living relatives, the anthropoid apes. Whole groups of hominids with inferior brains could not win wars and were therefore exterminated."

- Jane Goodall

 

"The mind of the enemy and the will of his leaders is a target of far more importance than the bodies of his troops. "

-  Brigadier General S.B. Griffith, II, USMC

 

"Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment nothing can fail. Without it nothing can succeed. He who molds opinion is greater than he who enacts laws."

- President Abraham Lincoln

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Initial Message to the Department: Acting Defense Secretary Christopher C. Miller released his initial message to the Defense Department.

2. Want to work for Biden? Better send your information in soon.

3. Al Qaeda's No. 2, Accused in U.S. Embassy Attacks, Was Killed in Iran

4. Esper replacement Chris Miller tells US troops: 'It's time to come home'

5. 'The long knives are out': The Pentagon purge may be less about a Trump plan than end-of-presidency chaos and revenge

6. Microsoft: Russian, North Korean hackers target vaccine work

7. The revenge of Col. Douglas Macgregor

8.  A worried Asia wonders about a Biden administration

9. Why is US Army still training with China's PLA?

10. Philippine Military Kills 7 Suspected Militants in 2 Southern Raids

11. More Green Card Holders Are Becoming U.S. Citizens

12. US-China military talks aim to ease tensions with COVID-19 prevention focus

13. Military Geography and Military Strategy

14. As China's military confidence grows, it's now looking to 'design' how war is fought

15. Starting Dec. 1, Cybersecurity Is No Longer Optional

16. Biden considers Angus King for top intelligence post

 

1. Initial Message to the Department: Acting Defense Secretary Christopher C. Miller released his initial message to the Defense Department.

The PDF is at this link: https://media.defense.gov/2020/Nov/14/2002535407/-1/-1/0/INITIAL-MESSAGE-TO-THE-DEPARTMENT.PDF?source=GovDelivery

Key excerpt:

"As we prepare for the future. we remain committed to finishing the war that Al Qaida brought to our shores in 2001. This war isn't over. We are on the verge of defeating Al Qaida and its associates, but we must avoid our past strategic error of failing to see the fight through to the finish. Indeed, this fight has been long, our sacrifices have been enormous. and many are  weary of war - I'm one of them - but this is the critical phase in which we transition our efforts from a leadership to supporting role. We are not a people of perpetual war - it is the antithesis of everything for which we stand and for which our ancestors fought. All wars must end."

 

2. Want to work for Biden? Better send your information in soon.

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · November 13, 2020

If you did not get your email then I guess it is too late to apply to work in the administration (I did not get one!!  Not that I expected one)

 

3. Al Qaeda's No. 2, Accused in U.S. Embassy Attacks, Was Killed in Iran

The New York Times · by Adam Goldman · November 14, 2020

A pretty bold operation.  Always good to remove another terrorist from the global battlefield.  Now for the blowback.

 

4. Esper replacement Chris Miller tells US troops: 'It's time to come home'

foxnews.com · by Brie Stimson

This looks like this could be the real proximate cause for Esper's firing: "Shortly before he was fired, Esper reportedly sent a classified memo to the White House, warning against lowering troops levels any further because of conditions on the ground, including ongoing violence, the potential danger to remaining troops and the harm it could cause to U.S. alliances in the region, The Washington Post reported, citing current and former officials speaking on condition of anonymity."

 

5. 'The long knives are out': The Pentagon purge may be less about a Trump plan than end-of-presidency chaos and revenge

news.yahoo.com · by Sean D. Naylor and Jenna McLaughlin · November 13, 2020

This article covers a lot of ground from the firing and resignations to the conspiracy theories to the transition process (or lack thereof).

 

6. Microsoft: Russian, North Korean hackers target vaccine work

AP · by FRANK BAJAK · November 13, 2020

No surprise here.

 

7. The revenge of Col. Douglas Macgregor

responsiblestatecraft.org · by Mark Perry · November 12, 2020

Probably the only positive article on Macgregor comes from the Quincy Institute's Responsible Statecraft. 

 

8. A worried Asia wonders about a Biden administration

taipeitimes.com – by Foster King

Certainly, US domestic issues will dominate but any administration must be able to walk and chew gum and deal with domestic and foreign policy issues simultaneously (though the one of the key points of strategy is the ability to prioritize).  It will all be dependent on the team the new administration puts in place.

 

9. Why is US Army still training with China's PLA?

asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · November 12, 2020

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer?  Know yourself and know your enemy?

Sarcasm aside, this is a brutal critique of the US military in general and the US Army in particular.

 

10.  Philippine Military Kills 7 Suspected Militants in 2 Southern Raids

benarnews.org – by Richel V. Umel
 

11. More Green Card Holders Are Becoming U.S. Citizens

WSJ · by Jo Craven McGinty

An interesting development and some interesting statistics.  We are a melting pot.

 

12. US-China military talks aim to ease tensions with COVID-19 prevention focus

The Korea Times · November 13, 2020

A Chinese view to counter Grant Newsham's article in Asia Times criticizing this military engagement.

 

13. Military Geography and Military Strategy

warroom.armywarcollege.edu · by Thomas Bruscino · November 12, 2020

Everyone should have a copy of the late John Collins' book, Military Geography on their bookshelf. https://www.amazon.com/Military-Geography-Professionals-John-Collins/dp/1478267313

I have long recommended the five key subjects that should part of all PME programs are the following:

Military History

Military Theory

Military Geography

Operational Art

Military Strategy

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/thoughts-on-professional-military-education-after-9-11-iraq-and-afghanistan-in-the-era-of-f

 

14. As China's military confidence grows, it's now looking to 'design' how war is fought

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3109585/chinas-military-confidence-grows-its-now-looking-design-how-war - by Kristin Huang – 13 November 2020
 

15. Starting Dec. 1, Cybersecurity Is No Longer Optional

breakingdefense.com · by Kelsey Atherton

 

16. Biden considers Angus King for top intelligence post

Politico

 

"There is no rule on how to write. Sometimes it comes easily and perfectly; sometimes it's like drilling rock and then blasting it out with charges."

- Hemingway

 

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."

- Evelyn Beatrice Hall in The Friends of Voltaire (1906)

 

"Never be afraid to raise your voice for honesty and truth and compassion against injustice and lying and greed. If people all over the world...would do this, it would change the earth."

- William Faulkner