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The Social Battlespace of Stabilization Operations: Action Amongst the Peopleby Major (GS) Teemu Nurmela

Finnish Army

Download the Entire Thesis: The Social Battlespace of Stabilization Operations

Traditional Finnish "blue helmet" missions have been undertaken in situations where the parties have already consented to building peace. After the so-call revolution of UN peacekeeping, this kind of consent has been hard to find. The Finnish military terminology has shifted accordingly from peacekeeping (PK) to peace support operations (PSO) and military crisis management (sotilaallinen krusinhallinta). The terms "stabilization operations" or "stability operations" are not used in official texts to describe a certain phase or type of operations. Yet under the UN Chapter VII mandate, such operations have been common since IFOR in 1995. Finland has chosen not to take part in actual warfighting, but rather to contribute follow-on forces to the land component. Operations such as IFOR, SFOR, KFOR and recently ISAF have profoundly changed our operational environment. No longer is there a strong emphasis on post-conflict normalization. A recognized need for earlier action mandates a change in our approach.

Download the Entire Thesis: The Social Battlespace of Stabilization Operations

Major Teemu Nurmela is a Finnish officer currently serving at the J5 Plans & Policy Division, Finnish Defence Command in Helsinki. After graduating from the Finnish Military Academy in 1996, he served in light infantry and field HUMINT assignments including tours in Kosovo and Bosnia. He was certified as a general staff officer in 2009 after studying at the Finnish National Defence University and at the French Joint Staff College (CID).

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Afghan War Campaign Gets Mixed Reviews by Kimberly Dozier, Associated Press. BLUF: "Three U.S. officials who have seen the report [Afghanistan National Intelligence Estimate] say it concludes that special operations raids and special operations-led outreach to Afghan villages are getting results but that larger-scale military efforts to help build a credible Afghan government have produced little change."

Obama's Afghan withdrawal speech may mark the end of the U.S. counterinsurgency experiment.

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) By tossing the COIN to Afghanistan, Obama can now aim at Pakistan

2) Are the Pentagon's plans about to become obsolete?

By tossing the COIN to Afghanistan, Obama can now aim at Pakistan

President Barack Obama's prime-time speech on his plan for withdrawing from Afghanistan left no doubt that he intends to run for reelection as the leader who ended two painful wars. Most notable was his intention to extract 10,000 soldiers this year and 23,000 more by next summer, before the height of Afghanistan's traditional summer fighting season. For some analysts, this would seem to be a large military risk, taken for purely domestic political benefit.

Obama may have concluded that conventional U.S. ground forces in Afghanistan no longer provide much leverage over the military or political situation there. Obama realizes that the Taliban have established safe havens in both Afghanistan and Pakistan where they can wait as long as they need to. With those safe havens, he likely realizes that the coalition cannot obtain sufficient advantage over the Taliban to achieve a favorable negotiated settlement. Nor can anyone be sure how permanent the apparent progress in stabilizing southern Afghanistan really is.

The real permanent leverage over the Taliban comes in two forms. The first is Afghanistan's security forces, both the government's and local militias, which will presumably operate long after coalition soldiers have left the field. A favorable outcome ultimately rests not with U.S. combat patrols but with the long-term effectiveness of Afghan security forces, something which remains very much in doubt. For those officers responsible for U.S. military doctrine, Obama's speech would seem to bring to a close another unhappy encounter with counterinsurgency (COIN) theory. But true COIN -- winning over the population through security and better governance -- is not done by an outside intervening power like the United States, but by the host country itself. Although Afghanistan provides particularly poor raw material for U.S. COIN doctrine, U.S. military planners still need to solve the COIN puzzle for future contingencies, at a much lower cost than the United States paid in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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Thoughts on Stanton S. Coerr, "Ten Years Gone." by TOWNIE 76 at OPFOR. Commentary on SWJ article Ten Years Gone by Stanton Coerr. BLUF: "Unfortunately for the United States and in particular the military, we wish to do everything in a big way. We have approached transforming Iraq and Afghanistan in the same way. We have failed to take into account their history and culture as we have guided them in shaping their government but more importantly their military."

Counterinsurgency: One Elder at a Time

by Jarrin Jackson

I visited a small, isolated Afghan village near the Pakistan border in early 2011. My mission was to gather information, identify concerns, and help in any way I could.

On this brisk morning, I walked up to a mosque and asked to speak with the most influential person in the village. Minutes passed and I began to think I had been ignored. Then I saw a feeble, white-bearded old man. His back was curved and he used a tree branch as a cane. He was slowly making his way toward me, every bump in the ground seeming to pose a new challenge for him.

We exchanged the customary Islamic greeting—salaam alekum followed by wa alekum asalaam—and found a place to sit. He offered me chai for which I politely thanked him but refused. Untreated water in Afghanistan does not sit well with my stomach.

1LT Jarrin Jackson graduated from the United States Military Academy in 2008. He served as an Infantry Platoon Leader in Khost Province in support of OEF 10-11. He will attend the Maneuver Captain's Career Course at Ft. Benning in July 2011.

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Obama Orders Cuts in 'Surge' Troops in Afghanistan

Voice of America

US President Barack Obama announced he is withdrawing 10,000 US troops from Afghanistan by the end of this year and will bring home a total of 33,000 troops by the middle of next year. In a nationally televised address, the president said is he able to make the withdrawals because the United States and its allies are meeting their goals in Afghanistan.

He said the withdrawal will begin in July. He said that by 2014, the process of transition will be complete, and the Afghan people will be responsible for their own security...

CSPAN: President Obama Announces Afghanistan Troop Reduction

More:

Text of Obama's Speech on Afghanistan - AP

Obama Orders Troop Cuts in Afghanistan - NYT

Obama: Time for 'Nation Building' at Home - WP

Obama: Time to Withdraw Troops - WT

Obama Calls for Faster Troop Cuts in Afghanistan - LAT

Obama: 30,000-plus Surge Troops Leaving Afghanistan - AP

Obama Orders Withdrawal of 33,000 Troops - BBC

Obama Sets Plan to Start US Exit From Afghanistan - Reuters

Obama Declares Beginning of End of Afghan War - AFP

Obama Details Plan to Withdraw US Troops from Afghanistan - CSM

Obama to Withdraw 33,000 Troops from Afghanistan by 2012 - DT

Obama Announces US Troop Withdrawals from Afghanistan - USAT

Beginning of the End of the Afghanistan War - CBS

Drawdown Troops, Step Up Diplomacy in Afghanistan - Bloomberg

Obama's Tough Balancing Act - WSJ

Obama to Send Surge Troops Home by Sept 2012 - Politico

Drawdown in Afghanistan will Shift Tactics in War - WP

2012 Troop Pullback Worries Military Experts - NYT

Strategy Changes will Test US Forces - WP

Troop Cuts Herald Shift in US Approach - AP

NATO Allies Have a Head Start on Afghan Withdrawal - NYT

NATO Welcomes Obama's Afghan Plan - AP

French Troops to Progressively Leave Afghanistan - AP

Germany Welcomes Obama's Afghan Plan - AP

PM Says Australian Troops to Stay in Afghanistan - AP

Is the Afghan Army Ready for US Withdrawal? - BBC

Fears Abound Over Toll on Afghan Economy - NYT

US Troop Cut May Also Bring Risky Cuts in Afghan Aid - Reuters

Karzai: Afghan Youth to Lead as US Troops Go - AP

Drawing Down, With a Vigilant Eye on Pakistan - NYT

Obama's Afghanistan Drawdown Has Bipartisan Backing - USAT

As Politics of War Shift, Risks for Obama Ease - NYT

The Way Out? - NYT editorial

Obama May be Sabotaging his Own Strategy - WP editorial

Withdrawals Don't Solve Weaknesses Afghan Strategy - BG editorial

US Troop Drawdown and the Future of the Mission - Brookings opinion

Political Calculation Rather than Military Judgment - DT opinion

Strategic Drawdown or Rush for the Door? - TG opinion

Obama: The Postwar Era Begins Now - WP opinion

A Pivot Point in Afghanistan - LAT opinion

The Real Question: How to Achieve Afghanization - CNN opinion

Decisiveness in Obama's Afghanistan Speech - WP opinion

Ten Whats With... Col. Gian Gentile by Micah Zenko, Council on Foreign Relations. On COIN and IW: "I think with the current fad and fetish of counterinsurgency, irregular wars, often times caricatured as "wars amongst the people" fought to win the allegiance of local populations and to suppress so called "irregular threats," we may be losing the bubble on the fact that states still exist, and potentially in the future we may one day have to face a hostile state again."

NATO After Libya: The Atlantic Alliance in Austere Times by Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Foreign Affairs. BLUF: "The economic challenges that European nations face are immense, but that must not prevent them from seeing the wider strategic picture. Uncoordinated defense cuts could jeopardize the continent's future security. Libya can act as a wake-up call, but this mission needs to be followed by deeds."

Afghan Troop Withdrawal: Beginning Of The End For Petraeus Counterinsurgency Strategy by David Wood, Huffington Post. BLUF: "President Barack Obama's decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan signals the beginning of the end for the ambitious counterinsurgency strategy that Army Gen. David Petraeus designed and has single-mindedly pursued in Iraq and Afghanistan."

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Less is Often More?

The Paradoxical Impact of Force and Resource Constraints

This is a post that I never would have written while practicing the art in Iraq. On the ground level, every commander wants more forces. In fact, one of the unstated prerequisites for command is that you must conduct at least one daily bitching session where you emphatically describe how much more effective you could be if you were given another platoon, company, battalion, etc...

- More forces equal more villages and more neighborhoods you can clear and occupy.

- More forces equal more visible power and control.

- More resources equal more money to bribe your enemies.

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Obama to Announce Afghan Withdraw Plans Wednesday

By Dan Robinson

Voice of America

The White House says President Barack Obama will announce his decision on the size and pace of a U.S. troop drawdown in Afghanistan on Wednesday. It will come amid intensified national war-weariness and concern about the lives lost, and strains on the U.S. economy.

At Arlington National Cemetery this past Memorial Day, President Obama, after laying a wreath at the Tomb of Unknowns, stopped at Section 60, containing graves of U.S. troops killed most recently in Afghanistan and Iraq.

It was a reminder of the grim backdrop to the decision on how many of the 100,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan to begin withdrawing in July.

Mr. Obama announced the July start for the withdrawal when he presented his overall strategy for Afghanistan in December 2009.

Even as the president and military commanders point to successes in pushing back Taliban control in key areas, military commanders are worried about climbing casualty figures.

Like other presidents who have directed unpopular wars, Mr. Obama has has no shortage of advice from members of Congress.

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Wired's David Kravets broke the news and has the details here. BLUF: "A federal judge ruled Monday that publishing an entire article without the rights holder's authorization was a fair use of the work, in yet another blow to newspaper copyright troll Righthaven."

Resolving Insurgencies by Dr. Thomas R. Mockaitis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute monograph. Here's a brief synopsis:

Understanding how insurgencies may be brought to a successful conclusion is vital to military strategists and policymakers. This study examines how past insurgencies have ended and how current ones may be resolved. Four ways in which insurgencies have ended are identified. Clear-cut victories for either the government or the insurgents occurred during the era of decolonization, but they seldom happen today. Recent insurgencies have often degenerated into criminal organizations that become committed to making money rather than fighting a revolution, or they evolve into terrorist groups capable of nothing more than sporadic violence. In a few cases, the threatened government has resolved the conflict by co-opting the insurgents. After achieving a strategic stalemate and persuading the belligerents that they have nothing to gain from continued fighting, these governments have drawn the insurgents into the legitimate political process through reform and concessions. The author concludes that such a co-option strategy offers the best hope of U.S. success in Afghanistan and in future counterinsurgency campaigns.

Read the full monograph: Resolving Insurgencies.

The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released today the transcripts and videos from its fifth annual conference, Risk and Reward: American Security in an Age of Uncertainty, which took place in Washington, D.C., on June 2, 2011.

Watch the videos and read the transcripts online.

The CNAS conference featured a keynote address by Army Lieutenant General David M. Rodriguez, Deputy Commander of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, and timely discussions with senior national security experts on Afghanistan, Pakistan and al Qaeda; cyber war and cyber security; revolution in the Middle East; cooperation and competition in China and the Asia Pacific; and American foreign policy priorities.

The conference also marked the release of five new CNAS publications: America's Cyber Future: Security and Prosperity in the Information Age, Beyond Afghanistan: A Regional Security Strategy for South and Central Asia, Internet Freedom: A Foreign Policy Imperative in the Digital Age, Elements of Security: Mitigating the Risks of U.S. Dependence on Critical Minerals, and Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East.

Basic Training: How Gates Grew by Julian E. Barnes, Wall Street Journal. BLUF: "After four-and-a-half years as defense secretary, under both Republican and Democratic presidents, Robert Gates has earned a reputation as an adept manager in a department long resistant to change."

Afghanistan is Making Undeniable Progress, But it Could All Unravel, New York Daily News opinion piece by Michael Yon. BLUF: "... there are unmistakable signs of progress in Afghanistan, and Gen. David Petraeus is about to make a very important recommendation."

Infinity Journal, Issue No. 3, Summer 2011, has just been published. The latest issue includes:

Martin van Creveld, "The Second Lebanon War: A Re-assessment."

T.X. Hammes, "Limited Means Strategy: What to do When the Cupboard is Bare."

Justin Kelly, "On Paradigms"

Gian P. Gentile, "The Death of American Strategy."

Patrick Porter, "Isolationist Heresies: Strategy and the Curse of Slogans"

David Betz, "'Cyberwar' is Not Coming"

Infinity Journal is a digital journalzine, a journal-magazine mix, that intends to bring a better understanding and new perspectives to the issue of strategy. It offers readers two simple ways to read each issue. The online edition provides the best viewing experience, allowing for full page control and interaction, similar to a printed magazine but without the cost of subscription or the hassle of paper. The PDF version has been optimized so that it can be used across a wide range of devices, from your computer all the way down to cellular phones or portable gadgets. The site requires registration, but there is no cost.

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Re:

Karzai Announces Peace Talks with Taliban - VOA

Karzai: US in Peace Talks with Taliban - WP

Lashing Out, Karzai Says US Talking to the Taliban - NYT

US Contacted Taliban about Afghan Peace Deal - LAT

Karzai: US in Peace Talks with Taliban - BBC

As Karzai Confirms Taliban Talks, Attack in Kabul Kills 9 - AP

Afghan Leader Says US in Contact With Taliban - Reuters

US Ambassador Responds to Karzai's Criticisms - NYT

Gates: Headway in Taliban Talks May be Months Off - Reuters. BLUF: "It could be months before efforts to broker a peace deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban bear fruit, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in an interview aired on Sunday."

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Looking Back, Gates Says He's Grown Wary of 'Wars of Choice' by Thom Shanker and Elisabeth Bumiller, New York Times. BLUF: "Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, as he prepared to depart the government for the second time, said in an interview on Friday that the human costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan had made him far more wary about unleashing the might of the American armed forces."