Blog Posts

Book Review

Master Narratives of Islamist Extremism

by Jeffrey Halverson, H. L. Goodall, and Steven Corman.

Published by Palgrave-MacMillan, New York. 2011.

Reviewed by Commander Youssef Aboul-Enein

Militant Islamist ideology represents fragments of Islam weaved together into a modernist violent narrative. It represents a pseudo-intellectual and post-modern reductionism of the complex and diverse set of beliefs inherent of 1.5 billion Muslims. Jeffrey Halverson is an Islamic Studies Scholar and his two co-authors, Goodall and Corman, are communications professors at Arizona State. They explore these narratives while immersing readers in the language, symbols, and reductionism of Islamist extremism.

Of specific concern is "...al Qaeda's Yemeni chapter, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula..." which has "...an interest in recruiting a surgeon to implant explosives in the body of a suicide bomber to circumvent airport detection equipment and detonate an explosive device on an aircraft." (2)

This is not viewed as an immediate threat per the news report—"There is no intelligence pointing to a specific plot, but the U.S. shared its concerns last week with executives at domestic and international carriers, The Associated Press reported." (3)

Earlier rounds of media reports concerning this threat and Al Qaeda's ongoing interest concerning refining this capability have appeared over the last 18 months or so— hence today's media reports do not appear overly unique.

The reason I'm posting this note is that I did the initial strategic forecasting of this specific terrorist TTP back in September 2006. Over the course of a few years I refined this forecast and provided it to numerous law enforcement and homeland security audiences.

In May of 2010 I wrote an OSINT (open source) report on this threat that was subsequently published in March 2011 at GroupIntel (www.groupintel.com). That paper contains a November 2010 addendum that updated the initial research and a foreword and preface by Matt Devost and John P. Sullivan respectively. The title and a link to this 55-page paper are provided below:

The Projected Al Qaeda Use of Body Cavity: Suicide Bombs Against High Value Targets

The paper represents a useful background brief on this threat and hopefully places the ongoing media reports concerning this Al Qaeda TTP within the larger context of evolving patterns of suicide bombings directed at high value targets. Of specific interest should be the forensic analysis undertaken by David Kuhn concerning the Abdullah Al-Asiri Incident that took place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on 28 August 2009. The threat of body cavity bombs is very real and should not be discounted out of hand simply due to its humorous nature or past attempts by some governments to overly minimize— even deny— the dangers this suicide bombing evolutionary development represents.

Dr. Robert J. Bunker

Notes:

1. Christi Parsons, "TSA warns of possible airline threat involving implanted bombs". Los Angeles Times. 6 July 2011.

2. CBS/AP, "U.S.: Terrorists may surgically implant bombs". CBS NEWS, 6 July 2011.

3. Ibid.

by Zachary Keck

The National Strategy for Counterterrorism that the White House released last week signals the Obama administration's determination to enter into a new phase in America's fight against terrorism, one in which the United States significantly reduces the amount of resources and energy it devotes to the campaign. While strategically prudent- given al-Qaeda's diminished operational capacity, the death of Osama Bin Laden and the Arab Spring's blow to al-Qaeda's ideological appeal- implementing the strategy for winding down the war on terror will be a formidable challenge.

Zachary Keck writes on U.S. Foreign Policy at Examiner.com. His commentary has appeared on the websites of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, World Politics Review and the Diplomat among elsewhere.

I want to write about something we don't talk about. More than likely, you don't want to read this, but you need to. It seems paradoxical to our military values. Often times, we would rather wish it away with eyes wide shut instead of gathering intel, defining the problem, maneuvering to the position of strength, and assaulting through the objective like we are taught. According to the Associated Press,

"Families of service members who commit suicide are now getting condolence letters from the president just like families of fallen service members, a White House official said Tuesday."

by Jim Egan

Is it not unconscionable that the US, UK & French military

have failed in 100 days and £400m to route Col. Gaddafi?

There are ways to prompt him to flee,

And end his strange reign of tyranny.

In a previous life Jim Egan served on staffs on Capitol Hill, at a Pentagon software contractor, and in the White House. Today he is a technologist active in digital futures initiatives that can influence the emotions, brand loyalties and discretionary spending patterns of 100m-sized online audiences.

"After nearly a decade of war, our Army is emerging as a leaner, more decisive force with unique expeditionary and campaign capabilities shaped through a historic period of persistent conflict. At the same time, the effects of globalization and emerging economic and political powers are fundamentally reshaping the global order against a backdrop of mounting competition for shrinking natural resources amid accelerating population growth and climate change."

"This rapidly evolving and increasingly competitive strategic security environment has given rise to the manifestation of hybrid threats—combinations of decentralized and syndicated irregular, terrorist and criminal groups that possess capabilities once considered the sole purview of nation-states. As these threats become progressively indistinguishable from one another, our understanding of, and ability to master, full spectrum operations will become the central foundational element to our future success."

Remains Of 19th Century U.S. Sailors Lie On The Shores Of Tripoli - Here and Now, National Public Radio.

New legislation would require the Pentagon to return the 200-year-old remains of 13 American soldiers from a mass grave in Tripoli.

During the First Barbary War in 1804, sailors on the USS Intrepid, led by Captain Richard Somers, died in a explosion when their ship was attacked. Legislation making its way through Congress would require the Pentagon to locate and return the remains for a military funeral.

Dean Somers, is one of the descendants of the U.S. sailors working with the Intrepid Project to return the bodies to the United States. Somers says his family is delighted and encouraged by the bill.

"We've still got a long way to go," Somers said. "But we're more and more hopeful every day."

by William F. Owen

British Army Review, Spring 2011

Download the Full Article: Killing Your Way to Control

The population is not the prize. The population are the spectators to armed conflict. The prize is the control the government gains when the enemy is dead and gone. Control only exists when it is being applied, and it exists via the rule of law. The population will obey whoever exercises the power of law over them. Power creates support. Support does not create power. This is the source

of great confusion.

The Soviets exercised near-genocidal levels of violence against the Afghan population, as did the Nazis in occupied Russia. Neither was attempting to create an environment where the rule of law prevailed. Control was sought via threat of harm to the civilian population. No one supports people who seek to harm them. Law as in control and stability,is where crime (including terrorism) is punished and justice functions effectively enough, to enable people to live safe and productive lives. Creating and sustaining that condition requires someone to have monopoly of the use of lethal force. People will support who ever has the power to effectively enforce the rule of law. Gaining the monopoly on lethal force requires the destruction of the competition. Merely being present is not enough. In violent competitions, power gains support and not vice-versa.

Download the Full Article: Killing Your Way to Control

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.

Note the authors are a "who's who" of some of our great thinkers, generals, theorists, practitioners, and historians (well I guess Ambrose has had his issues!). Given the recent comparisons between Afghanistan and Vietnam I recommend one article in particular by the eminent strategist and mentor to so many of us, Colonel (Ret) John Collins' article from 1978 - Vietnam Postmortem: A Senseless Strategy. COL Collins' article should probably be mandatory reading for decision makers before we embark on any future Afghanistans or Iraqs so we do not have a failure to learn, failure to adapt, and failure to anticipate again (a dream of fantasy I know!).

We hold these truths to be self-evident that all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

-- U.S. Declaration of Independence

I am well aware of the toil and blood and treasure it will cost us to maintain this declaration, and support and defend these states. Yet through all the gloom I see the rays of ravishing light and glory. I can see that the end is worth all the means. This is our day of deliverance.

-- John Adams

They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.

-- Benjamin Franklin

Dependence begets subservience and venality, suffocates the germ of virtue, and prepares fit tools for the designs of ambition.

-- Thomas Jefferson

Carl's post and his use of the primary documents also highlights another little understood aspect of General Abrams in that he appears to have had a very serious drinking problem that rose to the level of notice by the Commander in Chief, President Nixon. This is not to spread dirty rumors about a famed American General, but to explore historically a significant factor of the man that very well could have affected his generalship. It at least warrants asking the question. Unfortunately this personal aspect of Abrams along with the deep frustration that his Commander in Chief had over his performance has been buried by the hagiography surrounding the Abrams by the works of writer Lewis Sorley and the myth of a better war in Vietnam.

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) Testing the 'Bremer Hypothesis' in post-Qaddafi Libya

2) RAND has good news for Obama - Afghanistan could be much worse

Testing the 'Bremer Hypothesis' in post-Qaddafi Libya

This week Andrew Mitchell, Britain's secretary of state for international development, briefed reporters on emerging contingency plans for a post-Muammar al-Qaddafi Libya. Mitchell is supervising a British-led international team that prepared a 50-page outline for how to stabilize Libya after the hoped-for collapse of Qaddafi's regime. Notably, the report recommends retaining much of the existing pro-Qaddafi army and police forces in Tripoli and elsewhere in western Libya. This recommendation is an attempt to learn from what many believe was a disastrous decision in 2003 to disband the Iraqi army after the fall of Saddam Hussein. But for Libya to actually benefit from this seemingly straight-forward lesson from Iraq will require many sketchy presumptions to come true.

In his memoir of his time as head of the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer attempted to defend his decision to disband the Iraqi army, a verdict he rendered almost immediately upon first landing in Baghdad. According to Bremer, the army had already disbanded itself after the U.S. capture of Baghdad, when the vast majority of largely Shiite conscripts had deserted and gone home. Second, Bremer was highly concerned that the officer corps, which he presumed was stocked with pro-Saddam loyalists, would be a threat to the post-Saddam future he and the Iraqis he was working with hoped to build.

The Sunni establishment sacked by Bremer later constituted a major portion of the Iraqi insurgency. We will never know whether the Sunni officers may have become insurgents anyway had Bremer retained them instead. If a large-scale purge of the officer corps was inevitable, the least-risky decision may have been to do the purge up front rather than waiting for insurgent officers to infiltrate themselves inside the army and government. Needless to say, Bremer's decision remains highly controversial to this day.

The "Bremer Hypothesis" may get another test in Libya, as Mitchell seems determined to learn from the presumed error.

Click below to read more ...

Via STAND-TO!

What is it?

The Army antiterrorism (AT) theme for the fourth quarter, fiscal year 2011 (4Q/FY11), -Antiterrorism Doctrine -- focuses on the understanding and integration of the AT doctrine contained in FM 3-37.2 ("Antiterrorism") released in February 2011.

Why is it important to the Army?

Describing what constitutes AT, how it applies in a given situation, what actions are necessary to prevent a terrorist attack, and how to determine if a unit, installation, or facility has the appropriate protection resources are complex and important issues. Determining the approach for these fundamental elements is certainly worth contemplating. Army AT policy (AR 525-13) provides the baseline fundamentals of what must be done. However, policy does not describe the countless possibilities driven by the threat, security environment, available resources, and numerous other variables. Moreover, the Army guides, but does not dictate, those actions through doctrine. Until recently there was no doctrinal "guide" for AT to help units develop their AT plans and programs. In February 2011, the Army unveiled its first ever AT doctrine, FM 3-37.2, "Antiterrorism."

What is the Army doing?

To meet a growing and evolving terrorist threat, the Army combined the most important elements of AT policy with the doctrinal wisdom and practical application from operational forces, installations, and stand-alone facilities. By leveraging extensive AT expertise from across the force, sound doctrinal principles, processes, and tools emerged. FM 3-37.2 establishes AT principles (assess, detect, warn, defend, and recover), integrates AT within the combating terrorism framework and protection warfighting function, and builds on the Army's effective operations and intelligence processes.

What continued efforts does the Army have planned for the future?

An Army-wide AT Awareness Month is planned for August 2011. The timing of this year's observance is especially important given the approaching 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks against the homeland.

During the month of August, units, installations, and facilities should focus efforts to heighten awareness and vigilance across the Army community to prevent and protect against acts of terrorism. The four themes, all related to doctrinal precepts, for the Army's AT awareness month included:

• Recognizing and reporting suspicious activity or high-risk behavior

• Application of Army AT principles

• Integrating AT into the operations process

• Procedures for law enforcement and community response to an active shooter

Resources:

Log-in required:

Army Antiterrorism Enterprise Portal (ATEP) and iWATCH Army

Related STAND-TO! editions:

Q3: Antiterrorism Theme- Understanding the Threat

Q2: Antiterrorism Theme - Antiterrorism Awareness in Contracting

Q1: Antiterrorism Theme- Personal Protection