Small Wars Journal

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SWJ Blog is a multi-author blog publishing news and commentary on the various goings on across the broad community of practice.  We gladly accept guest posts from serious voices in the community.

by SWJ Editors | Sat, 08/07/2010 - 9:22pm | 3 comments
Here's the fourth edition of Small Wars Journal's Saturday Night Quote (SWJ SNQ). Kudos to Colonel Phil Ridderhof. In the commentary section of SWJ Blog entry Marine Corps says, 'Damn the G-RAMM, full speed ahead!' Col Ridderhof had this to say:

"I think one of the hardest nuts to crack is that we have traditionally depended on suppressive fires to enable our maneuver. Will we have the ability to conduct suppression on suspected adversary positions, or will ROE demand clearly identifiable targets? Against a foe using a Hizbollah style defense, suppression would be the best way to get dispersed maneuver forces close enough to uncover the small enemy elements, especially those that will use the population as cover. Absent active suppression, we have to "lead with our chin" and allow them the first shot (basically an ambush) before going in. If the adversary has the advantage of choosing to initiate combat, it will be tough going, especially during initial assault/insertion phases. This is especially true if he is armed with a fair number of simple G-RAMMs, or coastal anti-ship missiles."

by Robert Haddick | Sat, 08/07/2010 - 2:26pm | 5 comments
Twenty years ago today was the official start of America's troubles with Iraq. Operation Desert Shield, a large-scale deployment of U.S., European, and Arab troops to Saudi Arabia, began on August 7, 1990. Five days before -- August 2, 1990 -- Saddam Hussein had ordered his army into Kuwait, starting a crisis that has dragged on to today. On the 20th anniversary of Saddam's attack, President Barack Obama gave a speech to the Disabled American Veterans. He boasted that his withdrawal plan from Iraq was on track. He passed over the opportunity to reflect on the anniversary America's troubles with Iraq began.

What followed from Operation Desert Shield has been a Twenty Years War against Iraq. Or at least Twenty Years and Counting. Although the end of this long war now seems in sight, some analysts believe America's troubles in Iraq are destined to extend well beyond December 31, 2011.

Some readers of this blog, along with many soldiers who have recently fought in Iraq, were not born when Operation Desert Shield began. With that thought in mind, we should pause on this 20th anniversary to contemplate whether the Twenty Years War was inevitable and whether it represented the best (least cost, least risk) choice available to U.S. policymakers.

In March 1991, President George H.W. Bush and his advisers opted for a Treaty of Versailles type settlement after the liberation of Kuwait. Saddam's regime was allowed to stay but was isolated and punished. Many at the time called for a Tokyo Bay solution -- a march to Baghdad, the removal of the regime, and presumably some sort of occupation. Bush the Elder and his advisers rejected that, explaining that such a course exceeded their mandate and would fracture the coalition they had assembled.

As the Twenty Years War has revealed, Bush the Elder's Versailles settlement didn't work any better than its namesake after World War I. In 2003, Bush the Younger attempted to finally bring the low-level war to an end by executing the Tokyo Bay option. The result was much pain and still no certainty that the Twenty Years War is really coming to an end.

Were there any other realistic options? Could Bush the Elder have opted for a Congress of Vienna instead of Versailles? Just as the European powers brought in Talleyrand to the Congress of Vienna and eventually allowed France a largely equal say after the Napoleonic Wars, should the United States and the other victors after the Kuwait war have worked with Saddam to establish a stable regional settlement? Iranian power still needed balancing, a role Iraq had played in the 1980s, and one Iraq still needs to play. By passing on a Congress of Vienna solution, did Bush the Elder pass up an opportunity to turn Iraq from a liability into an asset?

We have to assume that Bush, James Baker, and Brent Scowcroft, all experienced realists, were fully aware of the Congress of Vienna option. The obvious problem was that from a U.S. perspective, Saddam was simply too toxic to deal with. In order to generate public support for a military offensive to eject the Iraqi army from Kuwait -- which at the time many feared would become another Battle of the Somme -- Bush had to amplify Saddam's evil impression. That succeeded in generating support for the offensive. But it ruled out a Congress of Vienna after the war. In theory, the Clinton administration could have made a fresh diplomatic approach to Iraq. But the cost at the time of maintaining the Versailles settlement seemed low while the political risk of approaching Saddam was deemed too high.

War termination is a messy subject. The Twenty Years War goes on. Happy Anniversary!

by Robert Haddick | Fri, 08/06/2010 - 4:45pm | 4 comments
Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

------

Writing in Small Wars Journal, Gregory Conti and Jen Easterly, both U.S. Army lieutenant colonels, discussed the problems the military faces recruiting "cyber warriors" into the newly created Cyber Command, which aims to "conduct full-spectrum military cyberspace operations in order to ... ensure US/Allied freedom of action in cyberspace and deny the same to our adversaries."

Yet Conti and Easterly note that Cyber Command will recruit from an already tiny pool of cybersavvy talent, a pool made even smaller by Cyber Command's requirement that its soldiers pass security clearances, polygraph examinations, and drug screening. Meanwhile, Cyber Command will have to compete with the likes of Google for talented techies who may not find military culture all that inviting. It should come as no surprise to eventually find Cyber Command mostly staffed by highly-paid civilian contractors rather than uniformed soldiers or career civil servants.

Cyber Command's recruiting difficulties are a microcosm of the broader troubles the military, especially the Army, now faces. The all-volunteer military has been a success and should be retained. But evidence continues to mount that the Army has grown as big as it can under the all-volunteer system. If circumstances ever required a significantly larger Army, Army leaders and U.S. society would have to get used to an Army of much lower quality at the margin. Deploying such a force, especially into stability operations, would entail taking greater risks and paying higher costs.

The recently released Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Independent Panel report called for an overhaul in the military's personnel system. The report concluded that compensation costs for the all-volunteer force have exploded and are no longer sustainable. Active-duty head count has declined from 2 million in 1991 to 1.37 million in 2009. Yet in spite of this 32 percent decline in head count, military personnel costs (in constant 2005 dollars) have grown from $122 billion in 1991 to $130 billion in 2009 ($60,939 per head in 1991 versus $94,533 per head in 2009, adjusted for inflation).

Even with this vast expansion in soldier compensation, the Army has had to reduce enlistment standards to fill its ranks. According to the QDR Independent Panel, these reduced standards include raising the maximum enlistment age to 42; accepting more recruits without high school diplomas, with criminal records, and in Category IV (low mental aptitude) on the Armed Forces Qualification Test; and increasing the numbers of noncitizens serving. The overall population of the United States is growing, but the cohort qualified and —to volunteer for military service is shrinking. (Seventy-five percent of American youth are ineligible for military service for physical, mental, or educational reasons, or due to criminal records.) The prime recruiting base seems to be narrowing by geographic area and to families of veterans, increasingly turning military service into a "family guild."

Immediately after taking office, Defense Secretary Robert Gates directed the Army and Marine Corps to increase their headcounts in response to the pressures of Iraq and Afghanistan. Regrettably, this decision collided with the evaporating pool of suitable military recruits. The Army recently released a report that studied suicide prevention and the Army's mental-health issues. The report revealed a broader range of rising high-risk behaviors and criminality in the Army's ranks. Part, maybe most, of the increasing incidence of suicide in the Army is related to the strain of wartime deployments. But the report noted that 68 of the 120 suicides (57 percent) the Army suffered during the first half of 2010 were to soldiers who had zero or one deployment.

Click through to read more ...

by SWJ Editors | Fri, 08/06/2010 - 8:25am | 8 comments
The Future of the U.S. Armed Forces is the theme of the current issue of The American Interest. Here's the lineup:

Presidents and Their Generals: A Conversation with Eliot Cohen - Q&A. When President Obama fired General Stanley McChrystal and sent General David Petraeus to Kabul in his stead, he wrote the latest chapter in a long narrative of civil-military tensions in America.

Ebb Tide - Seth Cropsey. American's many post-Cold War land wars have obscured important strategic truths, among them the real value of the U.S. Navy.

Caught on a Lee Shore - Dakota L. Wood. Redefining the strategic niche of the Marine Corps may be the key to a future as glorious as its past.

In the Army Now - Richard A. Lacquement, Jr. The Army's reluctant embrace of counterinsurgency and stability operations is the right choice. Now comes the hard part: to institutionalize it.

Up in the Air - Richard B. Andres. The Air Force is in a tailspin, and a fundamental strategic myopia is the reason.

Benevolent, Adaptable and Underappreciated - Jeff Robertson. A technology-enabled temptation to shorten the tether on Coast Guard operations threatens the future of a uniquely resourceful organization.

Unreserved Support - Paul McHale. A former Congressman makes the case for giving the Active Reserves their due.

by SWJ Editors | Thu, 08/05/2010 - 4:44pm | 30 comments

Two good reads at the US Army War College's

Strategic Studies Institute:

Organizing To Compete in Political Terrain by Dr. Nadia Schadlow.

In this analysis, the author identifies some of the continuing obstacles to

achieving civil-military integration in war. She argues that there are continuing

disagreements about who should lead the shaping of the political landscape in

war and that while doctrine has advanced in this area, good doctrine does not

guarantee the effective execution of governance-related tasks. Sound operational

approaches are required as well.

Got Vision? Unity of Vision in Policy and Strategy: What It Is and Why We Need It

by Dr. Anna Simons

Moving beyond "unity of effort" and "unity of command," this monograph identifies

an overarching need for "unity of vision." Without someone at the by Dad. 

helm who has a certain kind--not turn, not frame, but kind--of mind, asymmetric

confrontations will be hard (if not impossible) to win. If visionary generals

can be said to possess "coup d'oeil," then unity of vision is cross-cultural

coup d'oeil. As with strategic insight, either individuals have the ability

to take what they know of another society and turn this to strategic--and war-winning--effect,

or they do not. While having prior knowledge of the enemy is essential, strategy

will also only succeed if it fits "them" and fits "us." This means that to convey

unity of vision a leader must also have an intuitive feel for "us."

Both works are well worth a look. They're eminently relevant to current

issues and the broader practice of small wars, and are written by authors we respect a

great deal.

by Robert Haddick | Thu, 08/05/2010 - 11:36am | 19 comments
UPDATE: Undersecretary of the Navy Robert Work sent me a response to this essay. You will find his response in the comments below.

----------------

Yesterday I attended a presentation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies delivered by Robert Work, the Undersecretary of the Navy. Work, a retired Marine Corps colonel and a former analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, discussed the prospects for the U.S. Marine Corps after Afghanistan (see also this SWJ entry).

Work made it clear that he and the Navy Department are planning to return the Marine Corps to its naval roots. Most important, Work defended the amphibious assault mission and asserted that the Navy Department will ensure that the Marine Corps will be prepared to execute a two-brigade amphibious assault even as adversaries acquire more sophisticated precision weapons.

Work explained that the United States needs to maintain substantial power projection capabilities -- including the ability to execute large-scale amphibious assaults -- if it wishes to maintain the credibility of its security commitments in the Asia-Pacific region. Work dismissed the argument that large opposed amphibious assaults are obsolete because the United States hasn't performed one since Inchon. Work explained that the circumstances of the Cold War resulted in large forward deployments of U.S. ground and air forces, thus temporarily removing the requirement for large combined arms power projection capability. In the future by contrast, the closing of overseas bases will renew the requirement for combined arms power projection capability, including large amphibious assaults. Work believes that large amphibious assaults will be extremely rare events. But, according to Work, allies will not consider U.S. security guarantees to be credible if the U.S. does not retain and exercise this capability.

In his speech earlier this year to the Navy League, Defense Secretary Robert Gates wondered how opposed amphibious assaults will be viable when adversaries possess precision munitions, known as "G-RAMM" -- guided rockets, artillery, mortars, and missiles. Work said that he and his colleagues are preparing a formal response to Gates.

Work gave a brief outline of that response. First, an adversary G-RAMM capability requires sensors (radar) and an electronic command and control network. Work expressed confidence that U.S. joint forces will be able to achieve electronic network dominance over an adversary in an amphibious objective area. Second, Work noted the difficulty of defending against a modern amphibious assault. Concentrated adversary forces, either at a landing site or in a mobile reserve, will be vulnerable to U.S. precision attack. U.S. landing forces, by contrast, aided by platforms such as V-22, LCAC, and EFV, have a very wide variety of insertion options. In addition, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have allowed the Marine Corps to perfect distributed operations, which will also be an effective technique during amphibious assaults. Finally, Work is counting on the participation of Air Force long-range strike and Army parachute BCTs as force multipliers in a joint campaign.

A panel discussion that followed shed a little rain on Work's presentation.

Click through to read more ...

by SWJ Editors | Wed, 08/04/2010 - 3:08pm | 2 comments
Significant Challenges in Iraq Remain Despite "End" Of U.S. Combat - Center for a New American Security

Despite the "end" of U.S. combat in Iraq -- as announced by President Obama yesterday -- significant challenges remain in the country including terrorism, economic development, broader security and governance. Since its founding in 2007, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) has been a leading voice on U.S. policy toward Iraq and on how to care for Iraq war veterans. CNAS continues to develop and promote pragmatic analysis to help shape and elevate the national debate.

Continue on for CNAS Expert Commentary on Iraq...

by SWJ Editors | Wed, 08/04/2010 - 10:29am | 0 comments
ISAF Commander Issues Updated Tactical Directive - ISAF news release dated 4 August 2010.

International Security Assistance Force Commander, General David Petraeus has issued his updated Tactical Directive to all units within Afghanistan.

The updated directive provides guidance and intent for the "disciplined use of force" in support of ISAF and USFOR-A operations. The new directive emphasizes that the central feature of the struggle in Afghanistan is the Afghan people. The directive firmly places the presence of civilians at the center of every decision involving the use of force.

The updated directive is classified; unclassified portions of the document are included in the linked news release.

by SWJ Editors | Wed, 08/04/2010 - 6:47am | 31 comments
Nation-building, Stability Operations and Prophylactic COIN - Dr. Adam Shilling, PKSOI Perspectives.

The Army is abuzz with the concepts surrounding counterinsurgency (COIN), stability operations and other irregular warfare as the United States contends with a complex international environment. The following will examine these concepts doctrinally and then suggest another way to look at them.

Doctrine is simply a mental model that the military uses to organize and understand its environment and its activities, and then to build a shared understanding of those among service members. The value of a particular mental model—in this case, a doctrine—is not really whether it is right or wrong, but whether it is useful; useful in aiding understanding and in prompting an appropriate institutional response to the environment. An alternative mental model is not necessarily a contradiction of doctrine; it may be merely another useful way of looking at things...

More at PKSOI Perspectives.

by SWJ Editors | Tue, 08/03/2010 - 7:48am | 11 comments
U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Issues, Vol I: Theory of War and Strategy, 4th Edition - Dr. J. Boone Bartholomees Jr., U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.

This edition of the U. S. Army War College Guide to National Security Policy and Strategy continues to reflect the structure and approach of the core national security strategy and policy curriculum at the War College. The fourth edition is published in two volumes that correspond roughly to the Department of National Security and Strategy's core courses: "Theory of War and Strategy" and "National Security Policy and Strategy." Like previous editions, this one is largely an expansion of its predecessor rather than a major rewriting. About a quarter of the chapters are new, and several others have undergone significant rewrites or updates. However, approximately half of the book remains unchanged. Although this is not primarily a textbook, it does reflect both the method and manner we use to teach strategy formulation to America's future senior leaders. The book is not a comprehensive or exhaustive treatment of either strategic theory or the policymaking process. Both volumes are organized to proceed from the general to the specific. Thus the first volume opens with general thoughts on the nature and theory of war and strategy, proceeds to look at the complex aspect of power, and concludes with specific theoretical issues. Similarly, the second volume begins by examining the policy/strategy process, moves to a look at the strategic environment, and concludes with some specific issues. This edition adds several short case studies that can be used to illustrate the primary material in the volume.

Download the Guide to National Security Issues.

by SWJ Editors | Tue, 08/03/2010 - 7:40am | 1 comment
CSAF's Vector: The Way Ahead - U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff General Norton A. Schwartz.

Many of you have asked me about the future of our Air Force, so I want to take this opportunity to provide you with my vision for the way ahead. We are at an important juncture after nearly 20 years of constant combat in the Middle East and Asia; an era that has changed the face of modern warfare and reshaped us. Our Airmen are responding to the Nation's call with agility, innovation, and expeditionary presence--today nearly 40,000 American Airmen are deployed to 263 locations across the globe. We've also demonstrated that modern warfighting isn't just about how many are "over there." Our deployed-in-place Airmen are indispensable to the day-to-day defense of our Nation, whether they are tracking and dispatching bad actors at intercontinental range, maintaining constant vigilance from space, sustaining credible strategic deterrence, protecting networks, or patrolling the skies over the homeland...

... We cannot know what the future holds, so in order to realize my vision of a consistently powerful, capable Air Force, we will almost certainly need to pursue initiatives not yet fully imagined. I know Airmen will respond. After all, we are the stewards of a remarkable and vibrant history that began on the sands of Kitty Hawk and continues to be written in places like Afghanistan. Whether our contribution is in irregular warfare, humanitarian relief operations, engaging other air forces, aerial combat, strategic deterrence--or just getting the job done--we stand firm as a vital component of U.S. military power. America's Air Force entered the 21st century as the world's best air, space and cyber institution, and together we must expand on that legacy. I am proud to be your Chief and look forward to working with you as we build a firm foundation for the next generation of Airmen.

Download the CSAF's Vector.

by SWJ Editors | Tue, 08/03/2010 - 5:09am | 2 comments
In Kandahar, U.S. Tries the Lessons of Baghdad - Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Washington Post.

This city is starting to feel a lot like Baghdad. Tall concrete blast walls, like those that surround the Green Zone, are seemingly everywhere. Checkpoints supervised by U.S. soldiers have been erected on all major roads leading into the city. Residents are being urged to apply for new identification cards that require them to have their retinas scanned and their fingerprints recorded.

As U.S. and NATO commanders mount a major effort to counter the Taliban's influence in Kandahar, they are turning to population-control tactics employed in the Iraqi capital during the 2007 troop surge to separate warring Sunnis and Shiites. They are betting that such measures can help separate insurgents here from the rest of the population, an essential first step in the U.S.-led campaign to improve security in and around Afghanistan's second-largest city...

In Baghdad, the use of checkpoints, identification cards and walled-off communities helped to reduce violence because there were two feuding factions, riven by sect. Because the city had been carved into a collection of separate Sunni and Shiite neighborhoods, U.S. forces were able to place themselves along the borders. Both sides tolerated the tactics to a degree because they came to believe U.S. troops would protect them from their rivals. The conflict in Kandahar is far murkier. There are no differences in religion or ethnicity: Nearly everyone here is a Sunni Pashtun. There are divisions among tribes and clans, but they are not a reliable indicator of support for the Taliban. And many residents regard U.S. forces as the cause of the growing instability, rather than the solution to it...

More at The Washington Post.

by SWJ Editors | Mon, 08/02/2010 - 5:08pm | 0 comments
Defense Department Launches 'Lessons Learned' Blog - Lee McMahon, Defense Media Activity via AFPS.

For anyone who has served in the U.S. military, whether in uniform or as a family member, the concept of sharing lessons learned is a familiar one. A new Defense Department blog that launches today seeks to bring those lessons to an accessible online platform.

Titled "In Their Own Words: Lessons Learned in Today's Military," the blog aims to provide a platform for servicemembers, veterans and families to share their thoughts and experiences on a variety of topics. Each month, the blog will feature a different topic ranging from lessons from multiple deployments to lessons from the military family. As a first topic, "In Their Own Words" features female servicemembers engaged in work that is unique to them. With the increasing prevalence of "female engagement teams" in Afghanistan and the perspective of female servicemembers engaged in similar work in Iraq, the landscape is filled with lessons learned and experiences to share.

The blog postings in August will not be limited to Iraq and Afghanistan, however. L. Tammy Duckworth, assistant secretary of veterans affairs for public and intergovernmental affairs and a major in the Illinois Army National Guard, will share the lessons she has learned while working to increase the resources available for the growing population of female veterans. A retired Navy captain who forged what was a unique path at the time in the intelligence field as a female officer also will contribute a posting...

More at American Forces Press Service.

by SWJ Editors | Mon, 08/02/2010 - 3:20pm | 3 comments
General David Petraeus, Commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, issued his Counterinsurgency Guidance on 1 August.

Petraeus Puts Protecting People at Strategy's Center - Jim Garamone, American Forces Press Service

People are at the center of the counterinsurgency guidance the commander of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan issued yesterday. Army Gen. David H. Petraeus said the guidance will take "learn and adapt" to heart as the mantra for counterinsurgency, and added that he will learn and adapt his guidance in the weeks and months ahead. Petraeus issued the Army's counterinsurgency manual when he was commander of the Combined Arms Center at Fort Leavenworth, Kan. He refined that strategy when he served as the commander of Multinational Force Iraq, and later as commander of U.S. Central Command.

The guidance recognizes that the decisive terrain in Afghanistan is what the military calls the the "human terrain" -- the population where counterinsurgency operations are taking place. "The people are the center of gravity," Petraeus wrote in the guidance issued yesterday. Separating the Taliban and other enemy groups from the people and protecting them from threats is the way forward, he said.

Meeting and understanding the people is the main mission for military forces and international civilian organizations in the country, the general said. He wants servicemembers to conduct foot patrols and talk with the people. "Take off your sunglasses," Petraeus wrote. "Situational awareness can only be gained by interacting face to face, not separated by ballistic glass or Oaklys." NATO and Afghan forces have to live among the people to carry out the counterinsurgency strategy, the general's guidance states. "We can't commute to the fight," he wrote. The idea of NATO troops living among the people and with the Afghan units they support is key. For example, a U.S. military police unit partners with Afghan police in the southern city of Kandahar. By living with them, the unit's members understand the people they work with and can adjust as needed, Petraeus explained.

The general also addressed the need for effective government and for countering corruption. "The Taliban are not the only enemy of the people," he wrote. "The people are also threatened by inadequate governance, corruption and abuse of power -- recruiters for the Taliban." The counterinsurgency guidance tells servicemembers and civilians to work with the Afghan government to strengthen the institutions of the state, and make them responsive to the needs of the people. But the guidance is not all velvet glove; it also calls for NATO and Afghan partners to pursue the enemy relentlessly.

"When the extremists fight, make them pay," Petraeus wrote. "Seek out and eliminate those who threaten the population. Don't let them intimidate the innocent." Protecting the population means doing just that, the guidance says, but killing and injuring civilians works to the enemy's advantage. Petraeus called on troops to fight with discipline and to respect Afghan property. "If we kill civilians or damage their property in the course of our operations, we will create more enemies than our operations eliminate," he said.

The guidance also says that taking territory and then leaving it will not win the battle. Coalition and Afghan forces must take and hold an area to allow international and Afghan government organizations to stabilize the area. Jobs and good government will win the battle in the long run, the general wrote, and servicemembers and civilians must think in the long run. Money is ammunition in a counterinsurgency, the guidance notes. And just as aimed fire is more effective than spraying rounds, so too is investing in the right places with the right people, Petraeus said. The general said he wants servicemembers and civilians to show the Afghan people the values the international community holds dear.

"We are engaged in a tough endeavor," he said. "It is often brutal, physically demanding and frustrating. All of us experience moments of anger, but we must not give in to dark impulses or tolerate unacceptable actions by others." Finally, Petraeus said he wants people to use their heads, and to use initiative. "In the absence of guidance or orders, figure out what the orders should have been and execute them aggressively," he wrote.

by Robert Haddick | Mon, 08/02/2010 - 11:34am | 1 comment
Not trusting the Pentagon's staff to prepare a Quadrennial Defense Review that would be useful, the Congress established an independent panel of "wise men" to critique the QDR after its release. Last Thursday, the QDR Independent Panel, led by William Perry and Stephen Hadley and supported by a praiseworthy list of commissioners and staff members, released its critique of the 2010 QDR. With the exception of one glaring clunker, the Independent Panel's report is superb and is the strategic defense review the QDR should have been. Yet the very fact that the Independent Panel was needed (confirming Congress's suspicions) shows that something is seriously wrong with the government's ability to formulate and execute strategy.

As the Independent Panel noted, recent QDRs have failed to fulfill their assigned task, namely to take a 20-year view of national security goals, emerging security trends, and required military and government capabilities required over that time horizon to defend United States interests. Instead of being a thorough review of long-term strategy and requirements, recent QDRs have been glossy advertisements defending the current Pentagon program. The 2010 QDR was a particularly woeful effort. At the time it was released, I described it as "a no news QDR" and "incomplete staff work" that correctly identified some emerging security issues but avoided any significant recommendations to address those challenges.

The Independent Panel report does what the 2010 QDR failed to do. It challenges the Congress to reorganize its oversight committees related to national defense. It calls on the Executive to restructure its departments and authorities so it can efficiently implement a whole-of-government approach to policy planning and execution (which includes getting all relevant departments to be expeditionary). It calls for renewed focus on the Asia-Pacific theater, an increase in U.S. naval power, and much greater air force and naval long-range strike capability. It calls for a total scrub of the military's personnel, training, education, and compensation systems. New weapons should be delivered in no more than 7 years, even if that means capping weapon system capabilities in the first "A" models.

Finally, the Independent Panel concluded that the QDR process itself is broken, has run its course, and should be abandoned. That conclusion is very likely true. But the panel's recommended fix is the clunker I mentioned above.

Click through to read more ...

by SWJ Editors | Sun, 08/01/2010 - 1:43pm | 1 comment

MoI Holds First Ever ANP Provincial Commanders Seminar - Clinton Atkins, NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan Public Affairs.

The Ministry of Interior, the branch of the Afghan government responsible for Afghan National Police development and operations, held its first ever Provincial Commanders Seminar July 31 and will last five days at the Border Police Facility.

ANP leadership from every province and border zone attended the seminar where key note speakers such as Minister of Interior Bismillah Khan Mohammadi and Assistant Commanding General for the Combined Training Advisory Group-Police Brig. Gen. Carmelo Burgio offered words of wisdom and guidance to boost the spirits and leadership abilities of 34 provincial commanders, six zone commanders and five MoI department directors.

Through the course of the five days, the seminar will cover in-depth on leadership, management of change, future challenges for police, police education, recruiting, training and assignment of police personnel. They will also discuss gender issues, community policing and anti-corruption as a challenge to Afghan police forces.

Continue on for more...

by SWJ Editors | Sat, 07/31/2010 - 8:15pm | 0 comments
Return of the Crazy Monkey - The Quatto Zone.

This is probably my last post from Afghanistan, since I'm heading home soon. I'm past the 365-day mark, and even an invitation to stay on working for Team Petraeus from the Gun-dog hisself is a pale substitute for getting back together with my family.

You'll notice that, once again, it's been more than a month between posts. The excuse this time wasn't the job but some bile-spewing from Michael Yon, who rallied his readers in a call for my resignation and a DOD investigation into my authorship of this blog and its linked posts on Facebook. Finally the truth can be told, sports fans: I am using my privileged access to information as a public affairs officer to do the bidding of Stan McChrystal and conquer the Internet one former girlfriend at a time. The charge was ridiculous, but I was dealing simultaneously with the Michael Hastings First Amendment Salvation Show. I only have room in my life for one glory hound at a time, so I took down the blog until we got through the transition.

I started this blog for the purpose of spending time every few days reflecting on things that interested me. I wasn't concerned about building an audience. I was flattered to have The QuattoZone named a "blog to watch" by Small Wars Journal and the Blogger's Expo last year, but I've actively resisted offers from journalists and other bloggers to plug it. For me, making the posts public was mostly a way to enforce better discipline on the writing and the thoughts behind it. I also wasn't concerned about spreading official views. I do enough of that in my job. Most of all, I wasn't interested in scooping anybody. I did what almost every other blogging hobbyist does: I commented on content provided by reporters who actually work for their stories. I made it a point not to use information that hadn't been reported from events that weren't witnessed by journalists...

More at The Quatto Zone.

by SWJ Editors | Sat, 07/31/2010 - 6:58pm | 0 comments
Here's the third edition of Small Wars Journal's Saturday Night Quote (SWJ SNQ). Kudos to Major Ronald T. Hinkle. In the commentary section of SWJ article Gun Control in Counterinsurgency MAJ Hinkle has this to say:

"Pursuing gun control of the law abiding citizen to curtail the illicit activities of insurgents in Iraq is a frustrating dilemma that have parallel arguments in even our peaceful society in the U.S. Do we take away the ability of a citizen to protect himself and his family until help can arrive, or do we allow the insurgent/criminal take advantage of the helpless law abiding citizen without this protective right?"

"I worked with the initial push to stand up the Iraqi Police Force and saw the reactive versus proactive tendencies of their culture. Literally, the Police were viewed as the report takers and body receivers of those that were killed. Even after returning a few years and continuing the mentoring of the Police Force, the fact was that the Police were responders of incidents and could do little to initially protect its citizens the critical few minutes that were needed to protect life. An armed citizen and his neighbors could save his family during the time of the crisis until help comes."

by SWJ Editors | Sat, 07/31/2010 - 5:58pm | 6 comments

Afghan Women and the Return of the Taliban - Aryn Baker, Time

Afghan Women: Fearing a Taliban Future - Alissa Rubin, New York Times

Afghan Women Fear Loss of Modest Gain - Alissa Rubin, New York Times

The Plight of Afghan Women: A Disturbing Picture - Richard Stengel, Time

Living Under the Taliban Threat - Jodi Bieber Photography, Time
by SWJ Editors | Sat, 07/31/2010 - 12:49pm | 17 comments
Exit Under Way - Thomas Rid, Kings of War.

... [Steve] Coll said something noteworthy in his closing words on the war in Afghanistan. It may be repeated and quoted here. Keep in mind the context: the summer has been hard. This July is now the deadliest month of the entire 9-year war so far, for the United States at least. 63 soldiers were killed, surpassing last month's record of 60.

Now try taking a step back. "A new phase of the war has already begun," Coll tells us. He's not sure American decision makers always recognize and acknowledge that we're in a transition phase - I certainly know the feeling from Europe. "The exit strategy is already under way," he says. The date is not certain yet, but certain is that it will be some time between 2011 and 2014. That is not far off, mind you. "Every actor in the war knows it's coming." And "everybody" is "hedging for a post-NATO Afghanistan."

Now, here Mr Coll might be a bit too optimistic. There can be little doubt that some actors are preparing for a post-NATO - read: post-counterinsurgency - Afghanistan: yes, the Taliban are patiently preparing; many among the local population are preparing; probably the current regime in Afghanistan is preparing; certainly Pakistani intelligence is hedging its bets in the shadows. But what about Washington? What about London and Berlin? ...

More at Kings of War.

by Robert Haddick | Fri, 07/30/2010 - 7:12pm | 11 comments
Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) Pakistan's game,

2) Are overseas bases worth the risk?

Pakistan's Game

Of all the players in the Afghan game, Pakistan is running up the highest score. For several decades, Pakistan's policy toward Afghanistan has remained largely unchanged, regardless of who was running the country. That policy is to support Afghanistan's Pashtuns in their seemingly genetic resistance to outside control (outside in this case extends to any government located in Kabul). By supporting Pashtun autonomy, Pakistan establishes for itself a security buffer zone on its northwest frontier, which comes with a friendly auxiliary army -- the Afghan Taliban -- as a bonus.

For nearly nine years, U.S. officials have pleaded with Pakistan to suspend support for the Afghan Taliban and allow Afghanistan to unite under a central government. Pakistani officials have provided a variety of verbal responses to these entreaties but have not changed their policies toward the Afghan Taliban, whose military capability inside Afghanistan only seems to grow.

The United States cannot achieve its goals in Afghanistan while the Afghan Taliban's sanctuaries in Pakistan remain open. The Pakistani government refuses to close or even isolate those sanctuaries. Yet the massive U.S. foreign-assistance pipeline to Pakistan remains open. Why?

U.S. policymakers have seemingly concluded that they have more options and less risk by engaging Pakistan. They tried isolating Pakistan and found that course was neither wise nor sustainable. As a result, the Washington has opted to shower Pakistan with aid and hope that persistent persuasion will eventually result in greater Pakistani action against the Afghan Taliban.

The result has been a spectacular strategic success for Pakistan. Development aid from the United States has never been greater. The United States will deliver long-embargoed F-16 fighters to Pakistan and is providing other upgrades to Pakistan's armed forces. Along with this has come a de facto U.S. security guarantee against the perceived threat from India. Pakistan's diplomatic leverage over the United States has given it a free hand to work with China to upgrade its nuclear complex. Meanwhile, Pakistan's proxy forces in southeast Afghanistan are successfully defending the security buffer zone. Pakistan's dominant position has forced Afghan President Hamid Karzai to virtually sue for peace. This could result in an ethnic partition of Afghanistan that would secure Pakistan's main objective in the conflict.

With its winning position, Pakistan's current task is to arrange a stable end-state that avoids a backlash from the losers. Pakistan and the United States are in a largely zero-sum relationship over Afghanistan. Pakistan's leaders must fashion a settlement (however temporary) that allows the United States to save face, that maintains the U.S. aid pipeline, and that keeps the de facto security guarantee in place. U.S. officials should hope that Pakistan manages the endgame as well as it has managed the rest of the match.

Click through to read more ...

by SWJ Editors | Fri, 07/30/2010 - 5:37pm | 3 comments
Petraeus' COIN Guidance 'Prematurely Released' - Kate Brannen, Defense News.

Soon after the new Afghan counterinsurgency guidance issued by U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus went up on two Internet sites, it was pulled off again. But it is not expected to change drastically when it is rereleased publicly. "I don't think it's going to change," said Col. Daniel Roper, director of the Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center, in a July 30 interview.

Earlier this week, the Counterinsurgency Center and the publication Small Wars Journal posted the guidance, dated July 27, on their Web sites. Soon after it was posted, Small Wars Journal took it down and replaced it with this note, "The [Commander, International Security Assistance Force] Counterinsurgency Guidance was prematurely released. It has been requested that the COIN Center remove the Guidance and the associated post from their web site. Small Wars Journal has decided to do the same."

The training community was excited about the document and it went up too quickly, said Roper. It may have been taken down so that it can be explained to the right people before being made available to everyone, he said. "I think it's just a process of socialization and explaining it to different interested parties that are not people that normally look in soldiers' manuals for tasks, conditions and standards," Roper said...

More at Defense News.

by SWJ Editors | Thu, 07/29/2010 - 7:26pm | 11 comments
Poll: Nearly 6 in 10 Pakistanis View U.S. as Enemy - Robert Burns, Associated Press.
by SWJ Editors | Thu, 07/29/2010 - 3:02pm | 2 comments

by Christopher Paul

The Department of Defense has decided to change the name of military psychological operations (PSYOP) and this is a good thing.  I make this assertion despite concerns about the name change raised by others in this space (See The Branch Formerly Known as PSYOP and PSYOP: On a Complete Change in Organization, Practice, and Doctrine).  

Although most psychological operations are no more than messages and broadcasts aimed at changing the opinions, attitudes, or behavior of foreign citizens, officials or troops, they have come to have a sinister connotation in the minds of U.S. citizens and policymakers alike. The very term PSYOP summons dark thoughts of orbital mind control lasers, dastardly propaganda, or deception.

In truth, the vast majority of contemporary PSYOP are based on wholly truthful information. PSYOP personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan prepare air-dropped leaflets, develop posters and handbills, make radio broadcasts, and operate loudspeaker trucks. They carry messages ranging from what enemy soldiers should do in order to safely surrender (dropped as leaflets during the opening days of the war in Iraq) -- to posters or radio spots with the phone number for a tip line Afghan citizens can use to report Taliban activity.  Changing the name of these useful efforts is good; eliminating the possibility of them including falsehood would be even better.

by SWJ Editors | Thu, 07/29/2010 - 3:01pm | 2 comments
Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel - United States Institute of Peace

Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel - Findings and recommendations of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel, as presented to Congress on July 29, 2010.

Joint Statement - William J. Perry and Stephen J. Hadley before the House Armed Services Committee.

The Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel is a bipartisan congressional panel charged with conducting an assessment of the assumptions, strategy, findings, and risks described in the Department of Defense's Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). The QDR, a report required by law and provided by the Defense Department to Congress, is intended to assess the national security environment over the next 20 years and identify the defense strategy, forces, and resources required to meet future challenges.

After the Department of Defense issued this year's QDR on February 1, 2010, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Congress constituted an independent panel to review the report as part of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2010. Former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry and former National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley served as co-chairs on the Panel, and the Department of Defense asked the U.S. Institute of Peace to facilitate the Panel's work.

On July 29, 2010, the Panel delivered its final report to Congress.

The co-chairs of a select, bipartisan panel testified that their study of the Defense Department's 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) found that without needed reform the All-Volunteer Force may be unsustainable and that the nation needs a new national security strategic planning process that better incorporates civilian departments and agencies. Former National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley and former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry met with the House Armed Services Committee about their now-public report, "The QDR in Perspective: Meeting America's National Security Needs in the 21st Century."

In their testimony, they summed up the panel's warning that:

"The aging of the inventories and equipment used by the services, the decline in the size of the Navy, escalating personnel entitlements, increased overhead and procurement costs, and the growing stress on the force means that a train wreck is coming in the areas of personnel, acquisition, and force structure."

"In addition, our nation needs to build greater civil operational capacity to deploy civilians alongside our military and to partner with international bodies, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations in dealing with failed and failing states."

Co-Chair William J. Perry said, "Without immediate attention, the military faces a major impending crisis. The cost of our All-Volunteer Force has grown dramatically to the point that if left alone we will likely face a reduction in force structure, a reduction in benefits, or a compromised All-Volunteer Force. Our All-Volunteer Force is unsurpassed in today's world and if Americans want it to continue to secure the United States, hard choices must be made."

The panel found that the United States must adopt two new complementary approaches in meeting future national security strategies. Recent experience has shown that U.S. government civilian departments and agencies lack the requisite capabilities and capacities to deploy alongside military forces in uncertain settings and deal with many of the issues necessary to establish stable peace. The panel urges both Congress and the White House to adopt a "whole of government" approach that would strengthen civilian capabilities by developing a deployable civilian force to help prevent or respond to overseas crises. These capabilities would become a key enabler for further developing our Comprehensive Approach capabilities which would improve our abilities to work with selected allies/partners, select international organizations, and, when possible, Nongovernmental and Private Voluntary Organizations (NGOs/PVOs) in crisis settings.

Co-Chair Stephen J. Hadley said, "We found that the growing number of civilian government agencies working in stability and reconstruction operations has had far less experience and training in operating in insecure environments than they need and deserve. We call for a National Commission on Building the Civil Force of the Future because until civilian institutions develop the capacity to move promptly overseas to operate with military forces in unstable environments, the full weight of stability operations will fall on the military's shoulders."

The review panel makes several explicit recommendations related to the QDR, including calls to:

Reactivate the Joint Committee on the Organization of Congress, to study whether our Congress and the current committee structure put in place decades ago is properly organized to legislate and oversee implementation of national security efforts given the diverse and different security challenges of the 21st century.

Establish a National Commission on Building the Civil Force of the Future to help identify what needs to be done to ensure our civilians can operate effectively in partnership with our military forces.

Issue an Executive Order signed by the president that clarifies interagency roles and responsibilities for whole of government missions.

Establish a National Commission on Military Personnel, modeled after the 1970 Gates Commission, to provide momentum and a roadmap to modernize the military personnel system.

Set up a standing Independent Strategic Review Panel to review the U.S. national security strategic environment and provide recommendations to the Congress, White House and its various departments and agencies on how to address the range of threats confronting our nation. This will aid in forming a truly comprehensive national security strategic planning process.

Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel - Findings and recommendations of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel, as presented to Congress on July 29, 2010.